Nightwatch logo
'Nightwatch' text with white and gray letters
Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-06-25 15:03:34Z
8 months ago
Previous (2025-06-25 14:40:37Z)

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)


1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

  • Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues to claim "liberation" of Perebudova and control over Dyleyevka, describing it as a "powerful fortified area" on the approaches to Konstantinovka, allowing "fire control" over UAF logistics. "Операция Z" published video claiming "Dyleevka is under our control." The UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports active clashes near Dyliyivka (Toretsk direction) and Pokrovsk direction (Promin, Novotoretske, Myrolubivka, Lysivka, Novoukrayinka, Novoserhiyivka, Udachne, Myrnohrad, Oleksiyivka, Popiv Yar, Malynivka, Koptyevye and towards Shakhove, Volodymyrivka, Molodetske, Serhiyivka, Novopavlivka), confirming active combat in these claimed areas. Rybar indicates RUF successes near Konstantinovka. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports UAF Special Operations Forces destroyed a Russian assault group on the Pokrovsk direction. "Сливочный каприз" shared a photo captioned "24.06.25 Chasov Yar - Shevchenko" (likely Chasiv Yar area), indicating continued RUF focus on these critical sectors. Два майора published video from Konstantinovka direction, Yablonovka, showing drone strikes on enemy positions and assault actions by RUF soldiers. STERNENKO shared drone footage indicating Russian origin, showing a residential area in Donetsk Oblast with significant damage and an explosion, suggesting continued RUF strikes on civilian infrastructure within contested zones. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 shared video of "BLACK SKY" unit of 3rd Separate Presidential Brigade "Spartan" striking RUF forces in western outskirts of Novoserhiivka, implying active UAF defense/counter-attack. "Сливочный каприз" also shared new photo captioned "24.06.25 Krasnoarmeysk - Novoekonomicheskoe" (Pokrovsk direction) and a video with "Rubicon" and MoD Russia logos showing a drone strike on a vehicle, which they claim caused a "200" (KIA). New alert for 16 UAVs heading towards Dobropillia/Druzhkivka. Colonelcassad shared video of RUF destroying a UAF AGS crew on the Konstantinovka direction. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast. TASS reports FPV drone strikes by "Yug" group destroyed an American M119 howitzer and an ammunition depot in DNR. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (Paratrooper's Diary) shared video captioned "Поражение группы пехоты" (Defeat of an infantry group), showing aerial footage of explosions, likely from a drone strike, with a parachute and wings emblem, suggesting RUF airborne operations or targeting of UAF infantry. WarGonzo shared multiple photo messages with map overlays for Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar directions, showing claimed RUF advances and active combat zones. Народная милиция ДНР shared video of successful Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS RF) airstrikes on a UAF fortified area near Popov Yar, showing smoke plumes and cratering in agricultural fields. Операция Z reports that "Geraniums" struck a UAV assembly workshop at Kramatorsk airfield, with video evidence of the strike. Colonelcassad also shared a video captioned "Удар Герани с оптической системой наведения по цели ВСУ в аэропорту Краматорска," reinforcing this claim. Басурин о главном shared video and photos corroborating RUF strikes on the UAV assembly workshop at Kramatorsk airfield using "Geraniums". This indicates a persistent targeting effort by RUF against UAF drone production capabilities. "Сливочный каприз" shared a photo captioned "25.06.25 Великая Новосёлка - Ялта" (Great Novosilka - Yalta) which aligns with previous RUF claims of advancements in the Velyka Novosilka sector. Воин DV reported the "liberation" of Yalta by the "Vostok" Group of Forces, including video evidence. MoD Russia reports that the Vostok Group of Forces liberated Yalta (Donetsk People's Republic). Alex Parker Returns amplified this, referring to it as the "third liberated Yalta." Народная милиция ДНР shared video claiming destruction of UAF artillery and armored vehicles in Alekseyevka. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared video of a successful UAF drone strike near Pokrovsk, targeting RUF personnel under camouflage nets. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RUF liberated Yalta, Donetsk People's Republic. TASS reports that the "liberation" of Yalta in DNR will allow RUF to take fire control of the UAF grouping in Novopavlivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, which they describe as a key hub. РБК-Україна reports Konstantinovka is on the verge of a humanitarian catastrophe, citing Donetsk OVA, indicating severe civilian impact and potential RUF proximity. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) and Kotsnews shared videos claiming the liberation of Yalta in DNR by "Vostok" Group of Forces, with footage showing a Russian flag being raised, thermal imagery of destroyed vehicles, and aftermath of combat. Z комитет + карта СВО shared multiple map overlays (June 13-25, 2025) for the "Bogatyrskoye Direction" showing claimed RUF advances (Komar, Bogatyr, Vesele), indicating ongoing RUF pressure in this sector. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України shared video demonstrating successful strikes on enemy infantry attempting an assault. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on Perebudova, Dyleyevka; UAF confirms active combat; LOW CONFIDENCE – independent verification of RUF control over these settlements and the tactical implications for Konstantinovka; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Rybar's claim, requires verification; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF successful action reported by Butusov Plus; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - "Сливочный каприз" photo, indicates activity in Chasiv Yar direction; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Два майора video of combat in Konstantinovka direction; HIGH CONFIDENCE - STERNENKO drone footage, indicates RUF strikes; HIGH CONFIDENCE - DeepState video of UAF strikes; HIGH CONFIDENCE - "Сливочный каприз" new photo/video). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF map claims, unverified). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF video evidence, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF map overlays show claimed advances, but require independent verification of control). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF BDA).

  • Luhansk Oblast: RUF sources continue to claim the "liberation" of Petrovske (Hrekivka), asserting that "LNR is completely liberated." The UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports clashes yesterday near Tverdokhlibove, Ridkodub, Karpivka, Kolodyazi and towards Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyny, Novyi Myr, Olhivka (Lyman direction), indicating active combat in the broader area of Hrekivka/Petrovske. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the 3rd Assault Brigade is pushing occupiers out near Ridkodub. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shared video titled "The Third Assault is knocking out the occupiers in the area of Ridkodub!" Николаевский Ванёк also reports the 3rd Assault Brigade is "knockings out occupiers" near Ridkodub. Басурин (Basurin) claims RUF confidently advancing on Krasnolimansk direction with video of artillery fire. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared video of destruction of an enemy Grad MLRS system in Lyman direction, Donetsk Oblast by a UAV. Colonelcassad and Военкор Котенок posted aerial footage of the Serebryanskoye forestry, describing it as modern combat zone with "fiber optic cables" from FPV drones, indicating intense drone warfare in this sector. Оперативний ЗСУ also shared video of Serebryanskoye forest, describing it as "legendary" and "covered in fiber optics from drones," confirming intense drone warfare in this sector. TASS reports AFU controls less than 0.5% of Luhansk Oblast, citing Marochko. Rybar shares video on "Liberation of Grigorievka and battles for Verkhnekamenskoye." Colonelcassad reports on drone strikes by "Rubikon" unit of 144th division destroying an ammunition depot near Kolodezi. Kotsnews reports that "Starlink" has been banned in the LPR, indicating RUF efforts to control communication in occupied territories. Mash na Donbashe, Colonelcassad, and НгП раZVедка corroborate the Starlink ban in LNR. Два майора comments on the Starlink ban, suggesting RUF is reviewing its policies, reinforcing the intent to control information. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on Petrovske/Hrekivka, UAF confirms active combat; LOW CONFIDENCE – verification of RUF control over Petrovske/Hrekivka; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report of counter-action and supporting video; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Basurin's claim, unverified; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Colonelcassad/Voenkor Kotenok reports on Serebryanskoye forestry, indicating active combat and high drone usage; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF video of Grad destruction; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Оперативний ЗСУ video on Serebryanskoye forest). (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF reports of Starlink ban).

  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): RUF launched ballistic missiles against Dnipro city. Updated reports from UAF official sources and local administration confirm an increase in casualties: 20 dead and nearly 300 wounded. Оперативний ЗСУ states 15 dead and over 200 injured, citing OMA. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports four explosions in Dnipropetrovovsk industrial zone, likely Iskander. RUF sources claim a "powerful strike" was made against a "locomotive repair plant in Dnipropetrovovsk," framing it as a strike on UAF logistics. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claimed RUF forces hit a "rocket and armored vehicle production plant" in Dnipropetrovsk. Zelenskiy / Official also shared video of a damaged passenger train, indicating a direct hit on railway infrastructure. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація explicitly states the passenger train "Odesa - Zaporizhzhia" was damaged. РБК-Україна reports an expert called the strike a "targeted attack or psychological terror," aimed at hitting moving objects like trains, making them difficult to intercept. Олексій Білошицький shared videos showing police officers providing first aid to an individual in a car accident in Dnipro, indicating continued civilian emergency response after the strike. Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reported continued enemy attacks on Nikopol region, specifically Nikopol, Marhanets, Myrove, Chervonohryhorivka, Pokrovsk communities, with associated damage photos. New UAV threat in Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. New alert for UAV from Kharkiv Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. New alert for UAV from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast towards Poltava Oblast. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports 20 dead and nearly 300 wounded from yesterday's Russian attack on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Олександр Вілкул reports Kryvyi Rih situation is controlled. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shared a video message with a static image and text "ДНІПРО SAMAR" and "ДЕНЬ ЖАЛОБИ" (Day of Mourning) commemorating victims. STERNENKO reports the number of victims of yesterday's Russian attack on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast has increased to 20. Олександр Вілкул shared photos showing the modernization of heating systems in Kryvyi Rih, indicating continued civilian infrastructure repair. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued a new alert for ballistic missile threat from the eastern direction, specifically towards Poltava Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and Zaporizhzhia Oblast. A UAF air raid alert for ballistic missile threat was later cancelled. Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) confirms the death toll in Dnipro has risen to 19. Оперативний ЗСУ corroborates this, reporting 19 dead in Dnipro and an additional 2 in Samara, with over 300 wounded. The earlier casualty figure of 20 dead cited by some sources is now updated to 19 in Dnipro and 2 in Samara (total 21 KIA in Oblast). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of aviation weapon use in Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating continued RUF air activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF/Independent sources on impacts and casualties, including the increase to 21 KIA and over 300 wounded; HIGH CONFIDENCE – Civilian targeting; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on specific military target within Dnipro, requires BDA; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Damage to passenger train confirmed; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Poddubny reporting on Iskander use; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claim on missile/armored vehicle plant, requires BDA; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Оперативний ЗСУ casualty update; HIGH CONFIDENCE - РБК-Україна expert analysis; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Олексій Білошицький video, shows civilian impact and response). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF Air Force report). 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) shared video depicting the aftermath of shelling, showing damaged cars and houses, and civilians receiving aid for repairs. This highlights continued civilian impact and the humanitarian response. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report).

  • Sumy Oblast: The UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) explicitly reports UAF forces repelled 10 RUF assaults yesterday in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, confirming active combat and persistent RUF pressure in the border region. A new map from Z комитет + карта СВО on the Sumy direction (June 13-23, 2025) highlights territorial changes. STERNENKO shared video of defensive positions in Sumy region. Kotsnews reports on "the first report on the advance of the Russian Armed Forces in Sumy Oblast." Air Force of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued new alerts for KAB launches on Sumy Oblast at 18:22Z and 18:31Z. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports a destroyed Abrams tank in Sumy Oblast due to Lancet. STERNENKO also shared video of "Wings to Hell" (UAF drone unit) destroying a "Buryat samurai" (RUF soldier) with a tactical net in Sumy Oblast. Старше Эдды (Starshe Eddy) published an "Exclusive. First report from the 'buffer zone' in Sumy Oblast," including multiple photos depicting a rural road, damaged houses, and debris, aiming to validate RUF claims of presence. Colonelcassad shared a series of photos under the caption "Exclusive. First report from the 'buffer zone' in Sumy Oblast," showing rural roads, damaged houses, and military personnel, attempting to corroborate RUF presence in the claimed buffer zone. Николаевский Ванёк reports a collection for transport for drone operators of 421st Separate UAV Battalion "Sapsan" on the Sumy direction. STERNENKO reports on "drone safety" in Kursk, Lipetsk, Belgorod, Saratov, Voronezh, Tambov, and Penza Oblasts. Igor Артамонов (Governor, Lipetsk Oblast) reported "UAV threat cancelled," indicating recent UAF drone activity and RUF AD response in Lipetsk Oblast. A new "yellow" air danger level was announced for all of Lipetsk Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ shared a video showing FPV drone activity in Sumy Oblast over deceased RUF personnel. New alert for UAVs in Sumy Oblast, moving southwest. New alert for 1 UAV heading towards Sumy city from the north. New alert for UAV towards Sumy city cancelled. ТАСС reports RUF advancing in Sumy Oblast using small groups to stretch enemy forces, citing Alaudinov. AV БогомаZ reports a RUF UAV was destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. Colonelcassad reports on demining operations in Kursk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad shared a photo message about the situation of UAF in Sumy, including a new GUR unit, indicating RUF monitoring and IO on the northern front. STERNENKO reports an ammunition depot is detonating in Transbaikal Krai (Zabaikalsky Krai) of Russia, on the territory of a military unit, with video evidence of explosions and smoke. Alex Parker Returns shared videos from Sumy Oblast depicting Special Operations Forces work and highlighting a "guerrilla" conflict. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports an FPV drone attack by UAF on a civilian KamAZ truck in Bilovsky district of Kursk Oblast, injuring a 52-year-old man. UAF Air Force reports activity of RUF tactical aviation in the northeastern direction (likely Sumy/Kharkiv). (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF repelled assaults in Sumy/Kursk; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claim of "buffer zone" in Sumy, active combat confirmed; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF defensive preparations in Sumy, RUF KAB strikes in Sumy; LOW CONFIDENCE - Abrams destruction claim, unverified; HIGH CONFIDENCE - STERNENKO drone footage; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Starshe Eddy reporting and photos, intent is to confirm RUF presence; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Mykolaiv Vanok's report on UAF drone unit transport collection; HIGH CONFIDENCE - STERNENKO drone safety report; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Igor Artamonov's update on AD status; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Air Force of Ukraine KAB alerts). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF Air Force report).

  • Kharkiv Oblast: UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Hremyach of Chernihiv region, Vovchanski Khutory, Artilne, Zybyne of Kharkiv region, Popiv Yar of Donetsk region. Clashes yesterday near Vovchansk and Kamyanka (South Slobozhansky direction) and near Stepova Novoselivka, Kruhlyakivka, Zelenti Hai, towards Pischane and Kurylivka (Kupyansk direction). MoD Russia published video of Grad MLRS strike near the border in Kharkiv region. Привид Хортиці (Ghost of Khortytsia) shared video of UAF drone operations targeting enemy positions and a boat in Slobozhanshchyna, demonstrating UAF counter-action capabilities. Colonelcassad shared video claiming destruction of an enemy UAV control point in Kharkiv Oblast (likely a UAF asset). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shared video of 3rd Separate Tank "Iron" Brigade destroying RUF forces, captioned "These are our heavens, this is our land!", and a new FPV drone video targeting an RUF UAZ vehicle ("bukhanka"). New KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in eastern Kharkiv Oblast. Операция Z shared video claiming "Thunder" (RUF drone unit) burning enemy equipment near Kupyansk. New alert for several groups of UAVs in eastern Kharkiv Oblast heading west. New alert for UAV in Kharkiv city. New alerts for 6 UAVs from Bilhorod towards Kharkiv, and several groups from the north towards Kharkiv city. Explosions reported in Kharkiv city, striking a civilian enterprise. RUF launched at least 7 strikes on Kharkiv city. New alert for UAVs in Kharkiv towards Dnipropetrovsk. New alerts for UAVs towards Kharkiv city cancelled. RUF UAV strike reported to have hit a civilian enterprise in Kyivskyi district of Kharkiv. Another hit was recorded in Shevchenkivskyi district. Total of four Geran-2 UAVs struck a civilian enterprise in Kyivskyi district. РБК-Україна reports Kharkiv was attacked by seven Shahed-type drones. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 64-year-old man wounded in Kharkiv attack. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports RUF also struck Kupyansk overnight. РБК-Україна reports RUF also struck Kupyansk with KABs overnight. New video from Colonelcassad showing FPV drone strike on UAF pickup truck in Kupyansk vicinity. Оперативний ЗСУ reports 7 Shahed UAVs struck Kyivskyi district in Kharkiv. Воин DV shared video claiming 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade hit a UAV control point in Shakhtarsk direction. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА shared multiple photos from his visit with Ukraine's Minister of Education and Science, Oksen Lisovyi, in Kharkiv Oblast, inspecting construction/renovation sites. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new KAB launches on Kharkiv Oblast. ASTRA reports that Russian forces struck Kharkiv overnight, injuring a pensioner, with associated photos of damaged buildings, smoke, and firefighting efforts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new KAB launches on Kharkiv Oblast. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shared a video of a Russian "Molniya" (Lightning) loitering munition being intercepted/destroyed, with the Khartia unit logo. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС also shared the video of the "Molniya" being destroyed. Colonelcassad shared a video from the Vovchansk (Volchansk) direction, appealing for support for RUF assault troops. Николаевский Ванёк reports ballistic missile heading to Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target on Izium, Kharkiv Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк reports successful interception of the missile targeting Chuhuiv. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that SBU and National Police detained a Russian agent in Kharkiv who allegedly passed a mined scooter to UAF personnel as "volunteer aid." Oleg Sinegubov, Governor of Kharkiv Oblast, shared photos from a visit to defense industry facilities in the region, emphasizing their importance for frontline support. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shared multiple photos of infantry from the 58th Motorized Infantry Brigade training with modern combat equipment, indicating ongoing UAF readiness and adaptation. Colonelcassad shared exclusive footage of alleged destruction of UAF personnel and military equipment in the "buffer zone" across Kharkiv, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts, showing drone surveillance and strikes, indicating continued RUF operations in these border regions. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reported on "Єдиних новин" about shelling and drone attacks in Kharkiv region, confirming continued RUF aggression and its impact on civilian areas. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shared a video showing UAF aviation and Rocket and Artillery Forces actively working, with footage of strikes on armored vehicles, personnel concentrations in Chasiv Yar and Vovchansk, and an enemy command post in Shipylivka, demonstrating active UAF counter-action. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА shared photos indicating the Kharkiv OVA will allocate over 108 million UAH for housing for family-type children's homes, demonstrating continued efforts to support civilians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports on RUF airstrikes and clashes; HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF MLRS activity in Kharkiv; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF drone operations in Kharkiv; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim of UAV control point destruction; HIGH CONFIDENCE - ОТУ "Харків" videos). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ shared a video showing a 92nd Separate Assault Brigade soldier shooting down a RUF FPV drone with a shotgun as it attempted to hit a UAF pickup truck transporting personnel. This highlights continued UAF ingenuity and adaptive counter-drone tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF training report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF video evidence). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF civilian support efforts). Сливочный каприз shared a photo captioned "25.06.25 Волчанск," indicating continued RUF presence and operations in the Vovchansk sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF report). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shared photos captioned "Харьковское направление," reinforcing continued RUF focus on this axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF report).

  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Malynivka, Novoandriyivka, Kamyanske, Novooleksandrivka, Novopavlivka, Stepnohirsk of Zaporizhzhia region. UAF Air Force reports activity of RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration is scaling up protection for Defense Forces by constructing new anti-drone tunnels for logistics routes. Air Force of Ukraine reports missile danger and KAB launches in Zaporizhzhia. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued an alert for ballistic missile threat from the southern direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared video of 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade operators downing a Russian "Orlan-30" reconnaissance UAV near Zaporizhzhia with an FPV drone. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration) reports RUF conducted an airstrike on one of the settlements in Polohy district. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also shared photos of housing restoration in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, graduation ceremonies, and a photo postcard titled "Melitopol is Ukraine." Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posted a photo with the caption "Zaporozhye direction," implying continued RUF focus or operations in this area. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition claimed a British mercenary was killed near Mali Shcherbaky during a UAF attempt to recapture the area. New KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Mash na Donbashe reports part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast without power due to UAF strike. New UAV in Zaporizhzhia Oblast heading towards Dnipropetrovsk (Synelnykivskyi district). New alert for UAV from the south heading towards Zaporizhzhia city. New fast target on Zaporizhzhia. Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia, with damage. Two missiles impacted Zaporizhzhia. РБК-Україна reports two people wounded in Zaporizhzhia strikes. Air raid alert cancelled in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an air raid alert. Оперативний ЗСУ reports 4 strikes on Zaporizhzhia, 2 wounded, with video evidence of damaged civilian infrastructure. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports 9 private homes damaged by missile strikes on Zaporizhzhia. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares video of a private house impacted by an explosion. WarGonzo shared multiple photo messages with map overlays for the Zaporizhzhia Front. Два майора published a video of a tactical drone strike in Zaporizhzhia region. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posted a new photo message with the caption "🪂 Запорожское направление." 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shared a video showcasing the delivery of military aid, including generators, drones (DJI Mavic), and possibly Starlink terminals, to Ukrainian forces on the Zaporizhzhia direction. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports 469 strikes on settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in the past day. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issued a new alert for a ballistic missile threat from the eastern direction. UAF air raid alert was later cancelled. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shared a video showing administrative staff working in a bomb shelter for ID card/passport services. Воин DV shared video captioned "11th Guards Air Force and Air Defense Army keeps pace with ground colleagues and regularly irons out AFU positions, this time in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, near Poltavka," showing aerial footage of explosions, indicating continued RUF airstrikes and artillery fire in the region. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports almost 900 subscribers are without power due to an enemy attack on Zaporizhzhia district, confirming ongoing infrastructure damage. TASS reports RUF military expert Marochko stating that RUF has liberated Yalta (DNR) because UAF units cannot consolidate positions after taking Zaporizhzhia. This is a contradictory RUF claim aimed at discrediting UAF operational capacity on a different axis. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV over Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with assets engaged to shoot it down. This signifies continued RUF reconnaissance. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports that brigades of "Zaporizhzhiaoblenergo" have restored power to subscribers affected by the enemy attack, demonstrating civilian resilience and restoration efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official reports on AD alerts; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF counter-UAV action and supporting video; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Zaporizhzhia OMA on airstrike; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Zaporizhzhia OMA on housing restoration; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Zaporizhzhia OMA on graduation ceremony; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Zaporizhzhia OMA on Melitopol; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo). (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, requires verification). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF map claims, unverified). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF presence). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF logistical support). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF report on widespread damage). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF air defense engagement). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF report).

  • Kherson Oblast: UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 3 Russian army assaults in the Kherson direction. "Два майора" shared video of FPV drone and UAV-KT combat work by 127th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade in Kherson direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reported that RUF began to disconnect mobile internet in the occupied part of Kherson Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк reports UAF "tigers" captured another prisoner on the left bank of Kherson Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shared a photo/map of the "Kherson direction." АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shared a video claiming the "Espanyola" special forces marine detachment thwarted UAF landing plans on Crimea. MoD Russia released video showing signalmen of the 49th Army, Dnepr Group of Forces, in Kherson region. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА also shared video of an FPV drone. ТАСС reports Saldo (RUF-appointed governor) states AFU conducting massive attack by aircraft-type UAVs on Kherson Oblast. Операция Z shared video captioned "The enemy is attacking Kazan and Kherson region." Два майора is conducting a "collection for Kherson direction." New alert for 3 UAVs flying past Oleksandrivka, towards Pravdyne/Posad-Pokrovske. New alert for UAVs in southern Mykolaiv Oblast heading northeast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims a large UAF unit was destroyed by missile strikes in Kherson direction. MoD Russia shared video of civilian evacuation from Bahatyr. Kotsnews shared multiple videos of civilian evacuation from Bahatyr. Воин DV shared video claiming "Baltic brothers" from the 336th Guards Marine Brigade struck a UAF vehicle during personnel disembarkation, showing thermal footage of explosions. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a RUF UAV in Mykolaiv Oblast that "may be a spotter for enemy weapons." This indicates ongoing RUF reconnaissance and targeting efforts in southern Ukraine. Colonelcassad shared a video purportedly showing a civilian woman expressing gratitude and relief at the arrival of Russian military forces, likely in a recently occupied or contested settlement, suggesting RUF propaganda efforts to legitimize their presence. STERNENKO shared drone footage showing UAF Southern Defense Forces destroying RUF forces in Kherson Oblast, with footage of an industrial structure, infrared views of heat signatures, and a vessel on water being targeted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official report; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF combat footage, unverified BDA by UAF; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF reporting on RUF internet shutdown; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF capture of prisoner; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo/map of Kherson direction, indicating continued RUF focus; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА video, unverified BDA, likely propaganda; HIGH CONFIDENCE - MoD Russia video on Kherson; HIGH CONFIDENCE - АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА new video; HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS report on Kherson UAV attack). (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF acknowledgement). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, confirms RUF presence and evacuation efforts). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF Air Force report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF BDA).

  • Odesa Oblast: STERNENKO reports that Vasya Lomachenko is upset due to the Russian strike on a lyceum in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports that three employees were killed in the strike on the lyceum in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also named the three killed employees. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued new alert for "Several groups of UAVs in the Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast." New report of 14 UAVs in the Black Sea, and two of them north of Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. Николаевский Ванёк reports 2 UAVs were shot down near Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. New alert for UAVs heading towards Odesa Oblast (Sarata). New alert for UAVs from Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast (Vylkove). New alert for UAVs from Black Sea towards southern Odesa Oblast. New alert for 6 UAVs from Black Sea towards Primorske/Tatarbunary, Odesa Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк reports 9 UAVs heading to Vylkove. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAVs in Vylkove. Николаевский Ванёк reports that out of 16 UAVs towards Vylkove, 7 remain. РБК-Україна reports explosions in Vylkove. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RUF forces struck a UAF military unit in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. Сили оборони Півдня України reports 17 Shahed-131/136 UAVs were destroyed in the operational zone of "South" Group of Forces over the past day. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a Shahed UAV strike on infrastructure in Vylkove. РБК-Україна reports initial details of RUF attack on Vylkove, saying "enemy tries to leave the city without water." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared a video showing UAF drone operators of the "SICARIO" unit destroying a bridge in the southern direction using bomb drops from a hexacopter, indicating UAF efforts to disrupt RUF logistics. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports successful UAF air defense against Shahed drones, including an F-16 using an AIM-9 Sidewinder and a Mi-24 helicopter using machine gun fire, demonstrating multi-layered UAF air defense capabilities. Colonelcassad shared multiple videos claiming missile strikes by RUF on ammunition depots in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, Odesa Oblast, showing large explosions and smoke plumes from a distance, indicating continued RUF targeting of UAF logistics in the region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF reporting on strike). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF video evidence, unverified BDA).

  • Other Axes (UAF General Staff Reports):

    • Siversk direction: Clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka and Ivano-Daryivka.
    • Kramatorsk direction: Clashes yesterday near Chasiv Yar, Stupochky and towards Bila Hora. "Сливочный каприз" shared a photo captioned "24.06.25 Chasov Yar - Shevchenko" (likely Chasiv Yar area). WarGonzo shared multiple photo messages with map overlays for Chasiv Yar. Colonelcassad shared a video captioned "Удар Герани с оптической системой наведения по цели ВСУ в аэропорту Краматорска." Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition also shared video of the claimed destruction of a UAV assembly workshop at Kramatorsk airfield. MoD Russia shared video evidence confirming Geran UAV teams hit a UAF drone assembly workshop at Kramatorsk airfield, indicating persistent RUF efforts to degrade UAF drone capabilities.
    • Novopavlivka direction: Clashes yesterday near Bahatyr, Zelene Pole, Vesele, Novosilka, Shevchenko, Vilne Pole, also towards Novopil, Zaporizhzhya and Komar. Воин DV posted video on the "liberation" of Bahatyr over a month ago and the subsequent civilian evacuation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - "Сливочный каприз" photo, indicates activity in Chasiv Yar direction; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Воин DV video confirms combat history in Bahatyr). UAF General Staff provided an operational update for 22:00 24.06.25, 06:00 25.06.25, 08:00 25.06.25, and 10:00 25.06.25, detailing ongoing clashes. UAF General Staff reports at 11:00 25.06.2025 detailing continued offensive actions by RUF along multiple axes, particularly Pokrovsk. The UAF General Staff issued an operational update at 16:00 25.06.2025, detailing continued Russian invasion activities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF video evidence).
  • RF Territory (Various Regions): ASTRA and RUF MoD via TASS claimed Russian air defense forces destroyed 34 Ukrainian UAVs over various regions of Russia, with TASS specifically claiming 18 UAVs shot down in three hours. TASS later updated this, claiming 22 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over various regions of Russia in 3.5 hours (also reported by ASTRA). TASS reports that Russian AD forces from 13:00 to 15:00 MSK destroyed 8 Ukrainian UAVs over Voronezh, Kursk, and Samara Oblasts, indicating continued UAF deep strikes and RUF AD activity. Igor Artamonov (Governor, Lipetsk Oblast) reports a UAV threat in Usmansky and Dobrinsky districts, now "cancelled." A new "yellow" air danger level was announced for all of Lipetsk Oblast at 04:01:46Z JUN 25. Igor Artamonov reports the "yellow" air danger level for Lipetsk Oblast has been canceled. Оперативний ЗСУ shared photos claiming 8 RUF oil depots after drone attacks by UAV forces. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows video of a RUF soldier killed by UAF drone. РБК-Україна reports RUF has dropped almost 100 bombs on its own and occupied territories since the beginning of the year. STERNENKO shared video of "Novem Group" destroying RUF logistics in Kursk Oblast. ТАСС reports "Aeroflot" is adjusting flight schedules to Kazan, Samara, and Saratov due to restrictions. ASTRA confirms "Aeroflot" flight adjustments. AV БогомаZ (Governor, Bryansk Oblast) reports "Over the territory of Bryansk Oblast, air defense forces of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation detected and destroyed an aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicle." AV БогомаZ (Governor of Bryansk Oblast) posted photos about road network development in Bryansk Oblast. Colonelcassad reports that Putin posthumously awarded the Order of Courage to Pavel Mishin, a train driver killed in a bridge collapse in Bryansk Oblast. ASTRA reports 8 UAVs shot down in Ulyanovsk Oblast with internet restricted in the region. Рыбарь shares video message captioned "Organization and conduct of an ambush on enemy transport." ASTRA reported on a new initiative in St. Petersburg where "participants of the war with Ukraine will instill 'traditional values' in schoolchildren." Kotsnews claimed "Kyiv continues to hold 32 Kursky residents hostage." Новости Москвы shared videos of heavy rain and strong winds in Moscow. Операция Z (Military Correspondents of Russian Spring) posted video of aftermath of an alleged enemy attempt to destroy "Espanyola" marine detachment. НгП раZVедка shared video depicting a security operation with a civilian vehicle, individuals in a wooded area (one armed), an incapacitated individual, an FSB vehicle, and electronic equipment with IED components and X-ray imagery of ammunition. This indicates ongoing internal security concerns and counter-sabotage operations within RF territory. Colonelcassad reports the detention of two Moldovan intelligence agents in Moscow with tasks against Russian security. Alex Parker Returns corroborates this. This suggests heightened counter-intelligence activities and perceived foreign interference. MoD Russia reports the Russian Aerospace Forces received another batch of Su-35S aircraft. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 corroborates this with photos and video of new Su-35S aircraft, indicating continued Russian military-industrial output and force modernization, despite sanctions. Fighterbomber also shared video titled "About Su-35," showcasing the aircraft's capabilities and reinforcing reports of continued production. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a military unit in Chita, Siberia, has multiple fires and ongoing detonation for several hours, with fire aviation deployed, indicating a significant incident, possibly an ammunition depot explosion. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Britain will transfer 350 advanced air defense missiles to Ukraine, purchased from frozen Russian assets, indicating continued western support using novel financing methods. ASTRA reports two servicemen robbed and assaulted a passerby in Moscow, highlighting potential disciplinary issues within the RF armed forces. Рыбарь shared a video titled "Combatting Ukrainian Terrorism," showing FSB vehicle and security operations, indicating ongoing internal security concerns within RF. AV БогомаZ (Governor of Bryansk Oblast) shared photos from an exhibition "Bryansk Oblast: Territory of Development," attended by high-ranking political and military figures, aiming to project stability and development in a border region. Colonelcassad shared a video honoring Radislav Khugaev, a sergeant posthumously awarded "Hero of Russia" for actions in Mariupol, indicating ongoing RUF propaganda to boost morale and glorify military service. Военкор Котенок reported on Pacific Fleet combat training, implying readiness across all RF military branches. Север.Реалии reports a Moscow court sentenced the founder of "Dissernet" to 5 years for extremism financing, indicating increased internal repression. ASTRA reports a warehouse with ammunition caught fire in Transbaikalia due to natural fires, with several videos and photos showing smoke, explosions, and emergency response, indicating a significant accidental loss of materiel. Alex Parker Returns reported on Putin's participation in the BRICS summit via video link due to ICC requirements in Brazil, highlighting RF's continued international engagement challenges. ТАСС reports that Russian AD destroyed 10 Ukrainian UAVs over Voronezh, Tambov, Kursk, Saratov, Penza, and Rostov Oblasts between 15:00 and 17:00 MSK, confirming continued UAF deep strikes and RUF AD activity. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shared photo messages regarding "blocked access to favorite sites," which may indicate increasing internet censorship or restrictions within RF territory. Alex Parker Returns shared a video featuring Timur Gromov, a veteran of the 'SVO,' discussing difficulties finding employment after service, which suggests potential re-socialization challenges for Russian veterans and possible societal rejection, impacting morale and future recruitment. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a fire in Dzerzhinsk, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, at the "Zarya" plant, involving chemical containers. This, if intentional, would represent another UAF deep strike against RF industrial targets. Gleb Nikitin (Governor of Nizhny Novgorod Oblast) shared photos of opening a new federal Center of Hygiene and Epidemiology laboratory, attempting to project stability and scientific advancement despite potential industrial incidents. ASTRA reports the arrest of activist Akim Tuktarov in Ufa, highlighting continued internal political repression within Russia. ТАСС reports that an MMA fighter was sentenced to life in prison for killing a MAJI inspector in Zaryadye, which, while a domestic crime, could reflect on internal social issues and the rule of law within RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims, RUF internal reporting on UAV threats; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF claims on oil depot strikes; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF combat footage; HIGH CONFIDENCE - RBC-Ukraine report on RUF dropping bombs on own territory; HIGH CONFIDENCE - STERNENKO video of strike on RUF logistics in Kursk; HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS/ASTRA reports on Aeroflot flight adjustments; HIGH CONFIDENCE - AV БогомаZ post on road development; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Igor Artamonov's update; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Colonelcassad report on Bryansk incident; HIGH CONFIDENCE - ASTRA on Ulyanovsk UAVs). (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Rybar video, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, confirms military unit fire). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF reports on aid). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - ASTRA report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF AD activity). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF propaganda). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Russian legal action). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - ASTRA report, suggests significant loss of RUF materiel). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Alex Parker Returns report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Alex Parker Returns video, impacts veteran morale). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Оперативний ЗСУ report, unverified cause). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Gleb Nikitin report, propaganda). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - ASTRA report, internal repression). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS report).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations:

  • Weather in Eastern Ukraine remains generally temperate. However, recent reports of heavy rain and strong winds in Moscow (Новости Москвы) indicate potential for similar weather systems to impact northern and eastern fronts, which could affect air operations (especially drone activity) and ground mobility (muddy conditions). The fire in Chita, Siberia, suggests dry conditions in some parts of RF territory which could impact ground maneuver in similar terrain closer to the front. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a fire at a chemical plant in Dzerzhinsk, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, which could release hazardous materials impacting local environment and potentially hindering operations if proximate to logistical routes. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

  • Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues offensive operations along the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, with claims of localized gains (Dyleyevka, Perebudova, Yalta). UAF is actively defending and conducting localized counter-attacks, demonstrating robust resistance.
  • Luhansk Oblast: RUF maintains pressure on the Lyman direction, claiming Petrovske (Hrekivka). UAF 3rd Assault Brigade is actively pushing back near Ridkodub. High intensity drone warfare in Serebryanskoye forestry.
  • Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts: RUF continues probing attacks (10 repelled assaults) and KAB strikes. Significant RUF force concentration (52,000 personnel) remains a critical threat on the Sumy axis. UAF is actively maintaining defensive lines and conducting counter-drone operations. UAF defense industry activity noted in Kharkiv.
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RUF maintains air superiority with persistent airstrikes and reconnaissance UAV activity. UAF is focused on defending against these strikes and bolstering logistics protection with anti-drone tunnels. RUF strikes on power infrastructure continue to disrupt civilian life.
  • Kherson Oblast: UAF repelled 3 RUF assaults. RUF is active on the left bank, conducting signal operations and civilian evacuations. UAF reports RUF disconnecting mobile internet in occupied Kherson, indicating an attempt to control the information space and restrict UAF intelligence collection.
  • RF Territory: Widespread UAF drone activity continues deep inside Russia, targeting oil depots and other facilities. RF AD is active in multiple regions. Internal security concerns are evident with reported arrests of foreign agents and saboteurs and ongoing counter-sabotage operations. A significant ammunition depot fire in Transbaikalia due to natural causes has been reported, which could represent a loss of materiel for RUF. RUF appears to be grappling with re-socialization challenges for 'SVO' veterans, as indicated by Alex Parker Returns' video, which could impact recruitment and morale. Colonelcassad's video showing "White Wolves" battalion recovering damaged UAF equipment suggests ongoing combat and RUF logistical/recovery operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

  • Capabilities:
    • Ground Forces: RUF maintains substantial ground force capabilities, particularly the reported 52,000 personnel on the Sumy axis. They demonstrate sustained offensive capacity in Donetsk Oblast with attritional gains. WarGonzo video shows Russian artillery crews in action, indicating continued fire support capabilities. Военкор Котенок's video on the "liberation" of Yalta by the 36th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade indicates the continued involvement of specific ground units in offensive operations. Басурин о главном shared video of alleged "underground work" near Kyiv, showing a burning UAF vehicle, which, if credible, suggests RUF capability to conduct sabotage/partisan operations in UAF-controlled territory. TASS reports RUF drone units of the "Rubicon" center struck UAF ground robotic complexes, indicating RUF adaptation to new technologies on the battlefield. Colonelcassad shared a video of Rubikon UAVs identifying and destroying various UAF reconnaissance and strike drones, demonstrating RUF's capabilities in counter-UAV operations. Старше Эдды discusses the "necessity of creating heavy BMPs" (infantry fighting vehicles) to provide "tank-level protection" for infantry, suggesting RUF is aware of and attempting to address deficiencies in its armored infantry capabilities for future operations. WarGonzo's video of "new recruits" of the 114th Brigade undergoing training reinforces RUF's ongoing force generation and combat readiness efforts.
    • Air/Missile Forces: Proven capability for massed ballistic missile (Iskander-M), Shahed UAV, and KAB strikes targeting critical infrastructure and civilian population centers, designed to inflict mass casualties and psychological terror. Continued receipt of new Su-35S aircraft (MoD Russia, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Fighterbomber, Kotsnews) enhances their tactical aviation capabilities. UAF Air Force reports RUF tactical aviation activity in the northeast direction. Воин DV video shows 11th Guards Air Force and Air Defense Army conducting airstrikes in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating coordinated air-ground operations. Colonelcassad shared video of a destroyed RUF 9K35 Strela-10 SAM system, implying continued UAF counter-battery and targeting efforts against RUF air defense assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA).
    • Hybrid/Information Warfare: Highly sophisticated and adaptive IO apparatus capable of fabricating global narratives (Israel-Iran) and formalizing pretexts for escalation (Krokus City Hall). Demonstrated capability to conduct internal security operations against alleged foreign agents and saboteurs (Moldovan intelligence agents in Moscow). Rybar's video on "Combatting Ukrainian Terrorism" and accompanying text about an FSB vehicle and explosive materials reinforces RUF's narrative of internal security threats requiring counter-terrorism operations. Alex Parker Returns and Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) are closely monitoring and attempting to leverage the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting outcome, showing RUF's intent to exploit perceived political divisions. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники's photo messages about "blocked access to favorite sites" and Alex Parker Returns' video on veteran re-socialization challenges indicate internal socio-political messaging by RUF. RUF sources like Alex Parker Returns continue to use derogatory terms for Ukrainians ("хохлы") as part of dehumanization propaganda.
  • Intentions:
    • Strategic Offensive: RUF's primary intention remains a large-scale offensive, most likely on the northern front (Sumy/Kharkiv), aimed at opening new axes, stretching UAF defenses, and seizing strategic territory. The formalized blame for the Krokus attack provides a political and popular mandate for this.
    • Degradation of UAF Capacity: Continued efforts to degrade UAF's force generation capabilities (training centers), logistics (railway infrastructure, alleged locomotive plant, bridges), and industrial base (UAV assembly workshops). The strike on the Kramatorsk UAV workshop is a direct example of this intent.
    • Terror and Coercion: Sustained deliberate targeting of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and population centers to break morale and coerce political concessions.
    • Information Control: Dominate the information space, both domestically and internationally, by manipulating narratives, blaming Ukraine for attacks on RF territory, and discrediting UAF. Banning Starlink in LNR is a direct effort to control information. RUF also seeks to undermine the credibility of NATO by selectively reporting on summit outcomes. TASS reporting on NATO defining Russia as a "long-term threat" frames NATO's stance defensively, while RUF also highlights NATO's intent to expand military industry, painting a picture of an aggressive bloc. Военкор Котенок's commentary on Trump's alleged interaction with Zelenskyy further indicates RUF's intent to exploit perceived rifts or weaknesses in the UAF-US relationship. Alex Parker Returns is using the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting to mock Zelenskyy as a "military dictator" and portray him as powerless. Операция Z is pushing the narrative that Zelenskyy discussed "ways to end the war," implying UAF is seeking peace on RUF terms. Рыбарь is actively promoting the narrative of Ukraine copying UMPKs, aiming to diminish Ukraine's innovation and portray it as reliant on Russian technology. TASS, Alex Parker Returns, and Colonelcassad are actively circulating Trump's alleged statement about "not discussing a ceasefire" with Zelenskyy and that he "just wanted to see how he was doing," attempting to downplay the significance of the meeting and Ukraine's diplomatic efforts. TASS is also reporting Trump's confidence that Putin seeks a "settlement" in Ukraine, aiming to portray Putin as reasonable and open to negotiations, likely to influence international perceptions. RUF sources (Colonelcassad) are also circulating internal Ukrainian policy proposals, such as a ban on departure for Ukrainian women, likely to generate internal discontent and delegitimize the Ukrainian government.
  • Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:
    • Increased Ballistic Missile Targeting of Civilian Infrastructure: The Dnipro strike clearly indicates a shift to explicit mass casualty targeting with high-precision ballistic missiles.
    • Enhanced IO Agility: RUF's rapid pivot from a fabricated global crisis back to a formalized pretext for an offensive against Ukraine demonstrates increased sophistication and speed in their information operations.
    • Adaptive Counter-Drone Measures (UAF reports): RUF UAVs are becoming more resilient or are being used in swarm tactics to overwhelm UAF AD, as suggested by large numbers of UAVs in Odesa and Kharkiv.
    • Focus on UAF Logistic Nodes/Industrial Base: Strikes on Kramatorsk UAV workshop and alleged Dnipro locomotive plant highlight a targeting shift. The claimed fire control over Novopavlivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) after taking Yalta (Donetsk Oblast) signifies an intent to disrupt UAF logistics across oblast boundaries.
    • Deployment of Ground Robotic Complexes (RUF reports): RUF claims to have destroyed UAF ground robotic complexes, suggesting UAF may be deploying these systems, and RUF is adapting its targeting to counter them.
    • Improved Counter-UAV Capabilities: RUF "Rubikon" PVO detachments are actively engaged in identifying and destroying various types of UAF reconnaissance and strike drones, using specialized munitions for wider fragmentation. This indicates an adaptation to the UAF's increased drone usage.
  • Logistics and Sustainment Status:
    • RUF continues to sustain offensive operations across multiple axes. The reported delivery of new Su-35S aircraft indicates continued military-industrial production and a capacity to replenish high-value assets.
    • UAF strikes on 8 RUF oil depots deep inside Russia suggest an attempt to degrade their fuel supply chain, but the full impact is yet to be seen. The fire/detonations at a military unit in Chita (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) and ASTRA's report of a warehouse with ammunition catching fire in Transbaikalia could represent a significant logistical setback if it was an ammunition depot. Colonelcassad's video showing "White Wolves" battalion recovering damaged UAF equipment indicates ongoing RUF recovery and logistical efforts, albeit for captured or destroyed UAF assets, suggesting their own sustainment operations are functional. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Overall sustainment; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Air force replenishment).
  • Command and Control Effectiveness:
    • RUF C2 remains effective, coordinating complex multi-domain attacks (ballistic missiles, KABs, ground assaults). The ability to conduct large-scale information operations indicates a centralized and effective IO command.
    • Reported disconnection of mobile internet in occupied Kherson (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) and the ban of Starlink in LNR (Mash na Donbashe, Colonelcassad, НгП раZVедка, Два майора) suggests RUF is actively exercising control over communication in occupied areas, which can hinder UAF C2 and intelligence gathering within those territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

  • UAF forces are in a defensive posture across all major axes, actively repelling RUF assaults (10 in Sumy/Kursk, 3 in Kherson).
  • Active Defense: UAF units are demonstrating strong defensive capabilities and tactical agility, exemplified by the 92nd Separate Assault Brigade shooting down an FPV drone with a shotgun.
  • Counter-Offensive Capability: The 3rd Assault Brigade's successful pushback near Ridkodub and UAF SOF destruction of an RUF assault group on the Pokrovsk direction indicate continued capability for localized offensive actions. The "SICARIO" drone unit's destruction of a bridge in the southern direction highlights UAF's ability to conduct tactical strikes against RUF infrastructure. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's video of active UAF aviation and RViA strikes on RUF positions demonstrates continued offensive fire support capabilities.
  • Force Generation: While RUF aims to degrade UAF force generation (training centers), the announced mass production of Sapsan OTRK ballistic missiles and joint drone production with the UK indicates UAF is actively building and modernizing its domestic defense industry. Oleg Sinegubov's visit to defense industry facilities in Kharkiv further reinforces this. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shared photos of 58th Motorized Infantry Brigade training with modern combat equipment, reinforcing UAF's commitment to improving combat readiness. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports new recommendations allowing veterans to become "Defense of Ukraine" teachers, indicating efforts to leverage veteran experience for national defense education. Fighterbomber (RUF source) acknowledges that Ukraine has copied the UMPK (glide bomb kit) in just a couple of years, indicating a successful UAF adaptation and production capability for precision munitions. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the sentencing of an FSB agent for assisting RUF missile strikes on Ukrainian aviation in Kryvyi Rih, demonstrating UAF's counter-intelligence capabilities. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims F-16s are being transferred to Voznesensk airfield in Mykolaiv Oblast, which, if confirmed, would represent a significant enhancement of UAF air capabilities.
  • Logistical Resilience: Construction of anti-drone tunnels in Zaporizhzhia indicates adaptive measures to protect logistical routes. KMVA (Kyiv City Military Administration) reports continued restoration efforts on damaged buildings in Kyiv, demonstrating resilience and focus on civilian infrastructure. Олександр Вілкул's photo messages highlighting the creation of another shelter in a kindergarten in Kryvyi Rih indicate ongoing efforts to provide safe conditions for children, demonstrating UAF commitment to civilian welfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report).
  • Readiness: High, given the persistent and escalating RUF pressure and the clear threat of a major offensive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

  • Successes:
    • Repelled 10 RUF assaults on the Sumy/Kursk direction.
    • Repelled 3 RUF assaults on the Kherson direction.
    • UAF SOF destroyed a RUF assault group on Pokrovsk direction.
    • 3rd Assault Brigade successfully pushing back RUF near Ridkodub (Lyman direction).
    • Successful UAF drone strikes on 8 RUF oil depots and destruction of a Grad MLRS.
    • Successful interception of 78 of 97 RUF UAVs overnight.
    • Successful UAF counter-drone operations (e.g., 92nd Brigade shotgun takedown of FPV, Khartia unit destroying "Molniya" loitering munition, 128th Brigade downing "Orlan-30", F-16 and Mi-24 engaging Shahed).
    • Detention of Russian agent in Kharkiv attempting sabotage (mined scooter).
    • Denmark confirmed as first country for joint defense production.
    • UK to transfer 350 advanced air defense missiles using frozen Russian assets.
    • UAF drone operators destroyed a bridge in the southern direction, demonstrating interdiction capabilities.
    • STERNENKO shared drone footage showing UAF Southern Defense Forces destroying RUF forces in Kherson Oblast, with footage of an industrial structure, infrared views of heat signatures, and a vessel on water being targeted.
    • President Zelenskyy met with New Zealand PM Christopher Luxon, securing a new aid package, demonstrating continued international support.
    • Switzerland approved a bilateral agreement with Ukraine, indicating continued diplomatic support.
    • Norway allocates over $640 million for drone procurement in Ukraine and Europe and for drone technology development, significantly boosting UAF capabilities.
    • Ukraine is developing its own UMPK analog (glide bomb kit) to convert aerial bombs into KAB-like munitions, indicating efforts to counter RUF air dominance and increase precision strike capability. Confirmed meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump for 50 minutes, discussing "all truly significant issues." Zelenskyy (via STERNENKO) and ASTRA confirmed a "long and meaningful meeting" with Trump, countering RUF attempts to portray it negatively. UAF successfully prosecuted an FSB agent for targeting Ukrainian aviation in Kryvyi Rih, demonstrating effective counter-intelligence. РБК-Україна reports Trump promised to consider supplying missiles for Ukrainian Patriot systems, a significant potential boost to UAF air defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov met with French counterpart Lecornu in The Hague to discuss defense-industrial cooperation and joint projects, indicating continued strong bilateral support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report).
  • Setbacks:
    • Mass civilian casualties (21 KIA, over 300 wounded) in Dnipro due to ballistic missile strike on civilian infrastructure, including a passenger train and schools. This represents a significant humanitarian and psychological blow.
    • Unverified RUF claims of tactical gains in Donetsk Oblast (Dyleyevka, Perebudova, Yalta) and continued pressure on Konstantinovka.
    • Civilian enterprise struck in Kharkiv by UAVs.
    • UAF civilian property damage in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (469 strikes reported, 900 subscribers without power).
    • Unverified RUF claim of a UAF vehicle burned near Kyiv by "underground" forces, which, if true, highlights potential internal security challenges.
    • Bridge collapse in Zakarpattia with casualties, although not attributed to RUF action, indicates infrastructure vulnerability that could be exploited. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

  • Critical Need: Air Defense: Continued and enhanced supply of advanced AD systems, particularly for ballistic missile and KAB interception, is paramount given recent RUF targeting patterns. The commitment of 350 advanced AD missiles from the UK is a positive development. The F-16 and Mi-24 successes against Shaheds highlight the utility of diverse AD assets, emphasizing the need for continued provision of modern combat aircraft and munitions. Trump's reported promise to consider supplying Patriot missiles directly addresses a critical UAF requirement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report).
  • High Need: Counter-UAV Systems: While UAF is innovative, the sheer volume of RUF UAVs (97 detected overnight) necessitates more integrated and advanced electronic warfare (EW) and kinetic anti-drone systems. Norway's significant drone funding will directly address this.
  • High Need: Reconnaissance Assets: Enhanced ISR capabilities are critical for providing early warning of the anticipated major RUF ground offensive on the Sumy axis.
  • Sustainment of Aid: Continued international military and financial aid is crucial to sustain defensive operations and ongoing force generation efforts. Ukrainian government seeks to increase military budget by 400 billion UAH (РБК-Україна). Rutte's statement that military aid to Ukraine will likely exceed $50 billion this year is a positive indicator of continued financial support. Norway's allocation for drone procurement and development is a significant contribution. The shift in Trump's statements from a perceived "sarcasm" regarding ending the war in 24 hours to a more open discussion about aid and the complexity of the conflict (as reported by Operatyvny ZSU and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) indicates ongoing, albeit potentially shifting, US support discussions. However, STERNENKO reports Trump stating "We'll see if the US will provide money for Ukraine's defense," indicating continued uncertainty regarding future US financial aid.
  • Civilian Protection: Resources for rapid response, medical aid, and civilian infrastructure repair (Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv) are heavily strained by persistent RUF strikes. KMVA's work in Kyiv highlights ongoing needs. Oleg Sinegubov's announcement of housing funds for children's homes in Kharkiv indicates the immense civilian needs. The ongoing efforts to create shelters in kindergartens in Kryvyi Rih highlight the continued need for resources dedicated to civilian protection, especially for children. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

  • RUF Dominant Narrative:
    • Formal Blame for Krokus City Hall Attack: RUF has officially blamed Ukraine for the Krokus attack, providing a clear and potent pretext for escalated aggression. This is a highly significant and dangerous development.
    • "Liberation" Narratives: Continued claims of liberating settlements (Perebudova, Dyleyevka, Yalta) to project an image of advancing success and control. RUF claims that liberating Yalta will grant them fire control over Novopavlivka, amplifying perceived tactical gains.
    • Denial/Justification of Civilian Casualties: Framing strikes on civilian infrastructure as targeting "military objects" (e.g., locomotive plant in Dnipro, military unit in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, Kramatorsk UAV workshop).
    • "Ukrainian Instability": RUF channels (Операция Z) attempting to highlight internal Ukrainian discontent (e.g., UAF veterans protesting corruption on Maidan; "Зона СВО" claims "Maidan-2" possible). This is aimed at undermining internal cohesion and international confidence in Ukraine. Basurin's video of a burning UAF vehicle near Kyiv, attributed to "underground" forces, is a specific instance of RUF attempting to portray internal resistance within Ukraine. Colonelcassad is promoting a narrative that Ukraine's Minister for European Integration proposed a ban on departure for Ukrainian women, likely to cause internal unrest and portray the UAF government as authoritarian.
    • "Foreign Mercenary" Narratives: Claims of foreign mercenaries being killed in "suicidal missions" (Mali Shcherbaky) to demoralize UAF and deter foreign support.
    • Internal Security Narratives: Highlighting the detention of alleged foreign agents (Moldovan intelligence in Moscow) and counter-sabotage operations to reinforce a narrative of external threats to RF. Alex Parker Returns attempts to incite ethnic hatred in Siberia, framing migrants as a threat and Chechens as a controlling force, likely to distract from the conflict or fuel internal divisions within RF. Rybar's video "Combatting Ukrainian Terrorism" further reinforces the narrative of internal threats and ongoing security operations within RF territory. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА's photos regarding "Search for Spies in Iran" may be a distraction or an attempt to link UAF actions to broader international espionage threats. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shared a video on the "deprivation of acquired citizenship for committing crimes," indicating RUF efforts to control the population and potentially suppress dissent or perceived threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF propaganda).
    • Diplomatic Spin: TASS reporting on high-level RF-China relations aims to project strong international alliances for RF. TASS also reports on NATO's new 5% GDP defense spending target by 2035 and notes that the NATO summit promised continued military aid to Ukraine but did not mention alliance membership, likely to downplay Ukraine's long-term integration prospects. TASS emphasizes NATO calling Russia a "long-term threat" but simultaneously promotes dialogue about arms limitation, a contradictory stance aimed at mixed signaling. TASS reports Putin will participate in the BRICS summit via video link, while Lavrov travels to Brazil, attempting to project continued international engagement despite isolation. TASS also attempts to legitimize the fabricated Israel-Iran conflict, potentially as a precursor to more complex IO. TASS's reporting on Trump's denial of failure regarding the Iran nuclear program is an attempt to align with Trump's narrative and potentially create fissures in US foreign policy. Два майора is promoting a narrative regarding Serbia and arms supplies to Ukraine, likely to sow discord and exploit existing geopolitical tensions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF propaganda).
    • Starlink Ban: Banning Starlink in LNR is a direct move to control information flow and communications for local populations, limiting their access to independent news and UAF communications. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники's photo messages about "blocked access to favorite sites" indicate a broader trend of internet censorship within Russia.
    • Perceived Weakness of Ukraine/Zelenskyy: «Зона СВО» uses photo messages to portray Zelenskyy as being "pushed aside" at the NATO summit, aiming to undermine his international standing and Ukrainian resolve. TASS and Оперативний ЗСУ report Trump's alleged statement at a closed NATO session that the situation in Ukraine is "completely out of control," which RUF will exploit to portray a failing UAF war effort and undermine international confidence. Военкор Котенок also attempts to ridicule Zelenskyy's interaction with Trump at the Hague. Alex Parker Returns is using the lack of a press conference after the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting to frame it negatively for Ukraine, referring to Zelenskyy as a "military dictator" and implying the meeting was fruitless. TASS, Alex Parker Returns, and Colonelcassad are actively circulating Trump's alleged statement about "not discussing a ceasefire" with Zelenskyy and that he "just wanted to see how he was doing," attempting to downplay the significance of the meeting and Ukraine's diplomatic efforts. TASS also reports Trump is confident Putin seeks a "settlement" in Ukraine, a narrative aimed at portraying Putin as reasonable. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Trump's clarification that his "24-hour" statement was sarcasm, which RUF may try to spin as indecisiveness. Операция Z reports Trump stated that the war is "harder than anyone could imagine," attempting to frame the conflict as unwinnable for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF propaganda).
    • Domestic Focus (RF): Putin holding a meeting on cultural and educational complexes and discussions about raising salaries in Russia (Новости Москвы) are likely attempts to project an image of stability and normalcy, diverting attention from the war. AV БогомаZ's photos from an exhibition in Bryansk Oblast with high-ranking officials serve to project an image of development and stability in border regions, countering UAF deep strikes. TASS reporting on the Duma recognizing "special operation" participants as veterans from the moment of "adoption into RF" for DNR/LNR/Kherson/Zaporizhzhia is a legalistic maneuver to legitimize occupation and boost morale. Colonelcassad's glorification of Sgt. Khugaev is aimed at bolstering military morale and nationalistic sentiment. Старше Эдды's comments on heavy APCs and aircraft shelters indicate an internal discussion within RUF military circles about resource allocation and doctrine, which RUF may try to portray as forward-thinking. Colonelcassad's "large summer collection" for children in Donbas is a propaganda effort to portray RUF as benevolent and supporting civilian populations in occupied territories. Alex Parker Returns' video about a 'SVO' veteran struggling to find employment highlights a potential internal narrative about the challenges faced by returning soldiers, which RUF may try to counter with other positive veteran narratives. Gleb Nikitin's reporting on opening a new federal lab attempts to project a positive image of internal development and scientific achievement. The arrest of an activist in Ufa (ASTRA) and an LPR Deputy (TASS) indicates ongoing internal political purges and repression. Два майора's "Rating of Military Correspondents" indicates internal RUF competition for narrative control and influence within the Z-community. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting).
  • UAF Counter-Narrative:
    • Victimization and Resilience: Highlighting mass civilian casualties and damage from RUF strikes (Dnipro, Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi) to garner international sympathy and support. Emphasis on "Day of Mourning" for Dnipro victims. KMVA's updates on Kyiv restoration efforts. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) shared video depicting the aftermath of shelling and civilian aid distribution, reinforcing the narrative of civilian suffering and resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report).
    • Defensive Successes: Emphasizing repelled assaults and successful counter-drone operations to demonstrate military effectiveness and resilience. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's video showcasing active UAF aviation and RViA demonstrates offensive capability.
    • Civilian Life Continuity: Showcasing ongoing civilian activities (graduation ceremonies, administrative services in bomb shelters) and infrastructure repair (Kryvyi Rih heating, Zaporizhzhia housing) to project normalcy and resistance. Oleg Sinegubov's visit to defense industry facilities further reinforces this. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦's photos of infantry training emphasize UAF's professionalism and combat readiness. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 highlights veterans becoming teachers of "Defense of Ukraine" as a sign of national preparedness. Oleg Sinegubov's announcement of housing for children's homes in Kharkiv showcases UAF's commitment to civilian welfare. РБК-Україна providing guidance on shelter in apartments (any place is unsafe, including bathroom) aims to inform and prepare the civilian population, while acknowledging the severe threat. KMVA's post about illegal parking in disabled spots indicates a focus on maintaining public order and social justice even during wartime. Олександр Вілкул's posts on creating safe conditions for children by building shelters in kindergartens demonstrate UAF's continued focus on civilian well-being amidst conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report).
    • Unity and Resolve: Reinforcing nationalistic themes and the commitment to retake occupied territories (e.g., "Melitopol is Ukraine").
    • International Support: Highlighting new aid packages (Netherlands, Germany, New Zealand, Norway) and joint defense production agreements (UK, Denmark) to demonstrate strong international backing. UAF sources also highlight NATO's agreement on the 5% GDP defense spending target, interpreting it as a reinforcement of alliance commitment, and Rutte's statement on Ukraine's NATO membership being "irreversible." РБК-Україна reports Switzerland approved a bilateral agreement with Ukraine. РБК-Україна also promotes content discussing why Kyiv is a target and when new attacks might occur, engaging with public concern while maintaining a proactive stance. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights Ukraine's development of its own UMPK analog, showing self-sufficiency. Multiple UAF sources (Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, КМВА, Олег Синєгубов, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, ASTRA) emphasized the "long and meaningful meeting with President Trump," countering RUF attempts to portray it as unproductive. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (citing Reuters) reports Putin will not attend the BRICS summit in Brazil due to the ICC arrest warrant, which highlights RF's diplomatic isolation and legal vulnerability. РБК-Україна reported that Trump promised to consider supplying missiles for Ukrainian Patriots, directly reinforcing the narrative of continued US military aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). Оперативний ЗСУ reports on Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov's meeting with French counterpart Lecornu in The Hague, highlighting ongoing military-technical cooperation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report).
  • Disinformation Impact: RUF's ability to quickly pivot and formalize pretexts (Krokus) demonstrates a dangerous level of narrative control. The prior fabricated Israel-Iran crisis successfully diverted significant international attention for a critical 24-hour period. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

  • Ukrainian Public: High morale in the face of aggression, but deeply impacted by mass casualty events like the Dnipro strike. The "Day of Mourning" indicates the severe emotional toll. Continued calls for anti-corruption efforts (Veterans on Maidan) highlight domestic issues requiring attention but do not appear to significantly undermine national resolve at present. Resilience shown in reconstruction efforts in Kyiv. Public sentiment is buoyed by continued international support and UAF defensive successes. The meeting with Trump will likely be viewed positively, despite RUF attempts to undermine it. The coordination staff meeting with POW families highlights ongoing humanitarian concerns and the toll of the conflict. The ongoing need for public safety guidance (РБК-Україна) reflects the constant threat and impact on daily civilian life. Олексій Білошицький's post about strengthening responsibility for parking in disabled spots indicates a focus on maintaining public order and social justice even during wartime, potentially reflecting public sentiment for normalcy and fairness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF internal report).
  • Russian Public: Likely exposed to intensified state propaganda around the Krokus attack, fueling support for further military action. Reports of "participants of the war with Ukraine will instill 'traditional values' in schoolchildren" (ASTRA) indicate ongoing militarization of society and efforts to shape public opinion long-term. Restrictions on internet in Ulyanovsk (ASTRA) and banning of Starlink in LPR (Kotsnews) suggest RUF fear of alternative information sources and attempts to control internal narratives. Reports of internal crime by servicemen in Moscow (ASTRA) and internal bureaucratic issues (Два майора's lament) could undermine public trust in the military. The accident in Makhachkala (TASS) and the MMA fighter's terror charges (TASS) represent internal issues that could detract from the war narrative, though likely localized. RUF social media (Два майора) shows soldiers struggling to record messages, indicating potential morale challenges or operational stresses at the frontline. Alex Parker Returns' video about a veteran struggling to find employment points to a potentially growing issue of veteran reintegration, which could negatively affect public perception of military service. RUF state media's shift to discuss veteran re-socialization (Два майора) suggests this is becoming a recognized internal challenge. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on a Russian soldier, Klimov Daniil, involved in financial scams, which, if widely known, could damage trust in servicemen and overall morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF internal report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

  • Continued Western Support: Confirmation of new aid packages from the Netherlands and Germany (hundreds of thousands of drones, advanced AD radars) and UK agreement for joint drone production highlights ongoing, substantial military and technological support for Ukraine. The commitment of 350 AD missiles from the UK funded by frozen Russian assets sets a new precedent for innovative financing. Zelenskiy's meeting with New Zealand PM Christopher Luxon secured a new aid package, reinforcing broad international support. Norway's significant allocation for drone procurement (over $640M) is a major boost.
  • US Sanctions Posture: STERNENKO reports Secretary of State Rubio's comments on the complex relationship between sanctions and negotiations, implying sanctions might be lifted for peace. This could be perceived by RUF as a weakening of resolve and may embolden further aggression.
  • Denmark Joint Production: Denmark will be the first country with which Ukraine launches joint defense production (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS), further diversifying and strengthening Ukraine's long-term defense capabilities.
  • NATO Stance: TASS reports that the NATO summit approved a new military expenditure threshold of 5% of GDP by 2035 and promised continued military assistance to Ukraine but did not mention alliance membership. Operatyvny ZSU and STERNENKO corroborate NATO's 5% GDP defense spending agreement. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна also report that NATO is "softening its position" towards Russia in its final communiqué from the Hague summit, which could be a significant diplomatic development indicating a shift in alliance policy. However, РБК-Україна reports Rutte explicitly stated Ukraine's NATO membership is "irreversible," directly contradicting TASS's narrative and reinforcing Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration. TASS reports NATO defined Russia as a "long-term threat," confirming the alliance's adversarial stance. Colonelcassad confirms all NATO members approved the 5% GDP defense spending declaration. WarGonzo highlights Trump's influence on NATO defense spending, indicating RUF's awareness of internal NATO dynamics. РБК-Україна reports Trump stated allies would increase spending by $700 billion to prevent future catastrophes, linking it to the situation with Russia and Ukraine, suggesting a long-term commitment to military preparedness. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Trump also criticized Spain for not supporting the new 5% NATO GDP defense target, indicating internal alliance pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, a RUF source, also highlighted NATO's approval of the 5% GDP military spending target, framing it as an increasing cost for Western taxpayers, indicating RUF's intent to use this for internal and external propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF propaganda).
  • Romanian F-16 Training Center: Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports that the aviation training center in Romania will receive 18 more F-16s from the Netherlands, initially intended for UAF pilots and mechanics but now expanded to train pilots from all countries with F-16s. This suggests a broader Western commitment to F-16 sustainment and pilot training, benefiting Ukraine indirectly.
  • Northern European Stance: RВК-Україна reports Northern European Foreign Ministers named key conditions for a ceasefire in Ukraine, indicating continued diplomatic engagement on a resolution to the conflict.
  • US-Ukraine Diplomatic Engagement: Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна confirm a meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump at the Hague summit, indicating continued direct high-level engagement between Ukraine and the US, despite earlier reports of Trump's reluctance. РБК-Україна also reports that the discussion will cover weapons and negotiations, indicating the ongoing critical nature of military aid and diplomatic pathways. TASS reports on discussions about possible resumption of US-Russia flights, indicating some ongoing diplomatic channels. TASS reports Rutte does not consider flattering Trump "humiliating," highlighting diplomatic pragmatism around the former US president. TASS reports Trump believes the Israel-Iran war has ended, reinforcing RF's manufactured narrative. TASS reports Trump stated he expects to speak with Putin soon about Ukraine, indicating potential direct channels for future discussions. Operatyvny ZSU and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report Trump clarifying his "24-hour" statement was sarcasm and acknowledging the war's complexity, which could reduce immediate pressure on Ukraine for negotiations. Trump's statement about "seeing if the US will provide money for Ukraine's defense" (STERNENKO, TASS) creates uncertainty about future US financial support. Alex Parker Returns corroborated Trump's "24-hour" statement as sarcasm, and also reported on Trump's comments about Israel's need for Patriot missiles, implying a competition for US resources, and on Rutte's comments about flattering Trump. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for confirmed aid; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE for US sanctions interpretation due to source bias; HIGH CONFIDENCE for Denmark agreement). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - NATO official statements reported by multiple sources). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF reporting on training center). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - confirmed direct meeting and topics). (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - German statements suggest potential for diplomatic shifts).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

  • Immediate Northern Offensive: RUF will launch a major ground offensive in the Sumy Oblast within the next 24-48 hours, supported by intensive KAB and tactical aviation strikes. This will likely be accompanied by continued, high-intensity attritional assaults on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes in Donetsk Oblast. The primary objective is to stretch UAF reserves and create new operational dilemmas, with the secondary objective of seizing key logistical nodes (e.g., Konstantinovka if Dyleyevka/Perebudova claims are consolidated). RUF's claimed fire control over Novopavlivka from Yalta further supports their intent to disrupt UAF supply lines. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Escalated Terror Campaign: RUF will conduct further large-scale, multi-wave missile and UAV strikes on Ukrainian urban centers, with a focus on civilian infrastructure and mass casualties, aimed at psychological coercion and domestic propaganda amplification. Targets will include critical transport nodes (railways, bridges) and energy infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Continued Hybrid Operations: RUF will intensify information operations, particularly focusing on the "Krokus retaliation" narrative, while continuing efforts to sow internal dissent within Ukraine and conduct sabotage operations. The Starlink ban in LNR signals a broader effort to control occupied information space. RUF will continue to selectively highlight NATO statements to undermine alliance unity. RUF will likely amplify Trump's alleged comments about the situation in Ukraine being "out of control" to further undermine international confidence and internal Ukrainian morale. RUF may also attempt to exploit or fabricate "internal instability" narratives, such as the (unverified) burning vehicle near Kyiv, and propagate news about restrictive Ukrainian policies like a ban on women leaving the country. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Targeted Counter-UAV Operations: RUF will continue to deploy and refine their counter-UAV systems and tactics, particularly those demonstrated by "Rubikon" units, to counter UAF drone reconnaissance and strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

  • Multi-Front Operational Breakthrough: RUF launches a synchronized, large-scale ground offensive across Sumy, Kharkiv, and Luhansk (Lyman) axes, coupled with a major breakthrough attempt on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka axis. This offensive would be preceded by a strategic-level ballistic missile and cruise missile saturation attack targeting key UAF C2 centers, air defense nodes, and critical national infrastructure, including Kyiv. This would aim to achieve a rapid and decisive operational advantage, potentially forcing UAF into a widespread strategic withdrawal. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
  • Naval Blockade/Amphibious Threat (Black Sea): RUF attempts to re-establish a more robust naval presence and potentially threaten amphibious operations or landing operations along the Black Sea coast (Odesa Oblast), possibly supported by a new wave of missile strikes on port infrastructure, aimed at disrupting crucial grain exports and international shipping. (LOW CONFIDENCE)

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

  • Immediate (0-24 hours): High likelihood of RUF initiating the northern ground offensive and/or launching further mass missile/UAV strikes. Decision Point for UAF: Prioritize strategic reserves and AD asset deployment to the Sumy/Kharkiv axes.
  • Short Term (24-72 hours): Continued high-intensity combat on all fronts. RUF will attempt to consolidate any initial gains. Decision Point for UAF: Assess initial RUF penetration and determine need for counter-offensive operations to restore defensive lines.
  • Medium Term (1 week+): If a major offensive materializes, the next week will see a sustained high-attrition conflict, with both sides expending significant resources. Decision Point for UAF: Evaluate long-term resource sustainability and adapt defensive strategy based on enemy success or failure in achieving objectives.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

  • Intelligence & Special Operations:

    1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Deploy enhanced ISR assets (e.g., MALE UAVs, SIGINT, HUMINT) to the Sumy-Kursk border regions and along the Kharkiv axis to provide real-time, granular intelligence on RUF force movements, logistics, and C2 nodes. Prioritize targeting of RUF pre-assault formations.
    2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Activate a dedicated inter-agency cell to monitor, analyze, and aggressively counter RUF's formal Krokus blame-shifting narrative across all global information platforms. Develop and disseminate concise, evidence-based rebuttals in multiple languages to international partners, media, and the public. Proactively address and debunk RUF's attempts to exploit the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting outcome, and counter RUF narratives about internal Ukrainian policies.
    3. URGENT/CRITICAL: Conduct immediate, high-fidelity BDA on the Dnipro ballistic missile strike to identify precise targeting methodology, munition characteristics, and potential RUF intelligence collection vectors. Use this to refine AD and force protection protocols.
    4. URGENT: Increase counter-intelligence operations in Kharkiv, Kryvyi Rih, and other border regions to disrupt and neutralize RUF sabotage networks, following the recent detention of the alleged agent and the sentencing of the FSB agent. Investigate claims of "underground" activity near Kyiv.
    5. HIGH: Prioritize intelligence collection on RUF military-industrial capabilities, specifically the production and deployment rates of Su-35S aircraft and missile systems, to inform long-term strategic planning. Investigate the Chita military unit fire/detonation, Transbaikalia ammunition warehouse fire, and Dzerzhinsk chemical plant fire for any intelligence implications regarding RUF materiel losses or UAF deep strike effectiveness.
    6. HIGH: Intensify and expand operations by UAF drone units (e.g., "SICARIO") to target critical RUF logistical infrastructure, particularly bridges and railway lines in southern and eastern directions.
  • Air Defense & Force Protection:

    1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Re-posture and reinforce ballistic missile and cruise missile defense systems to protect Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro, and major C2 nodes against potential saturation attacks, anticipating the "retaliation" pretext. Prioritize defenses for strategic airfields like Voznesensk, if F-16s are deployed there.
    2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Implement enhanced active and passive air defense measures for all UAF training centers, logistics hubs (especially railway infrastructure and bridges), and UAV assembly workshops to mitigate future RUF precision strikes. Disperse critical assets where possible.
    3. URGENT: Accelerate the integration and deployment of newly acquired counter-UAV technologies and EW systems to frontline units, prioritizing those on the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk axes. Promote and widely share effective low-cost counter-drone tactics like the 92nd Brigade's shotgun method.
    4. HIGH: Issue updated civilian alert and shelter-in-place guidance that emphasizes the limitations of basic structures against ballistic missiles, promoting immediate evacuation to dedicated reinforced shelters or basements, as indicated by new guidance.
    5. HIGH: Continue to integrate diverse AD platforms (e.g., F-16s, Mi-24s, ground-based systems) for multi-layered defense against RUF UAV and missile threats. Explore and accelerate the development of domestic UMPK analogs to boost UAF strike capabilities.
  • Ground Forces:

    1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Place all units on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes at maximum alert for imminent major ground operations. Pre-position strategic reserves and fire support assets for rapid response to a multi-axis RUF assault. Reinforce defensive lines with personnel and modern equipment, as seen with the 58th Motorized Infantry Brigade training.
    2. URGENT: Reinforce defensive lines and prepare for high-intensity attrition warfare around Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Konstantinovka. Conduct local counter-attacks to prevent RUF consolidation of any new tactical gains.
    3. HIGH: Continue and expand localized counter-offensive operations (e.g., 3rd Assault Brigade near Ridkodub) to disrupt RUF momentum and regain lost ground where tactically feasible.
    4. HIGH: Prioritize delivery and integration of all available armored vehicles, artillery, and precision-guided munitions to frontline units in the most threatened sectors. Consider the implications of RUF's stated need for heavy BMPs for UAF defensive planning.
  • Information Operations & Diplomatic:

    1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch an aggressive, globally coordinated diplomatic and public information campaign exposing Russia's Krokus blame-shifting as a manufactured pretext for further unprovoked aggression, akin to historical false flag operations. Engage all international partners, think tanks, and media organizations.
    2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Publicize detailed, verified evidence of RUF war crimes, specifically the deliberate targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure in Dnipro, and use this evidence to press for increased international sanctions and accelerated delivery of military aid.
    3. URGENT: Proactively highlight UAF successes, including defensive victories, counter-drone operations, and deep strikes into RF territory, to boost domestic morale and demonstrate continued capability to international audiences.
    4. URGENT: Engage with international partners to address the implications of reported US decisions regarding sanctions on Russia, emphasizing that such actions can be perceived as weakness and embolden further aggression. Address and counter RUF's exploitation of Trump's alleged comments on the situation in Ukraine, and frame his clarifications positively for continued support. Address and debunk RUF narratives regarding internal Ukrainian policies or veteran re-socialization challenges.
    5. HIGH: Continue to showcase Ukraine's resilience and commitment to rebuilding (e.g., educational and infrastructure projects) to counter RUF narratives of collapse and maintain long-term international support. Publicize the UK AD missile deal as a model for further asset acquisition. Highlight Switzerland's bilateral agreement and Norway's drone funding.
    6. HIGH: Proactively highlight NATO's commitment to increased defense spending and Ukraine's "irreversible" path to NATO membership as a sign of continued resolve against Russian aggression, countering RUF attempts to portray NATO as divided or weakening in its support for Ukraine.
    7. HIGH: Continue to emphasize the broad international support for Ukraine, as exemplified by the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting and statements from various leaders, to counter RUF's efforts to portray Ukraine as isolated. Highlight Putin's inability to attend the BRICS summit due to the ICC warrant.

END OF REPORT

Previous (2025-06-25 14:40:37Z)

We only use optional analytics cookies if you allow them. Necessary cookies stay on for sign-in and site security.

Learn more in our Privacy Policy.