Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues to claim "liberation" of Perebudova and control over Dyleyevka, describing it as a "powerful fortified area" on the approaches to Konstantinovka, allowing "fire control" over UAF logistics. "Операция Z" published video claiming "Dyleevka is under our control." The UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports active clashes near Dyliyivka (Toretsk direction) and Pokrovsk direction (Promin, Novotoretske, Myrolubivka, Lysivka, Novoukrayinka, Novoserhiyivka, Udachne, Myrnohrad, Oleksiyivka, Popiv Yar, Malynivka, Koptyevye and towards Shakhove, Volodymyrivka, Molodetske, Serhiyivka, Novopavlivka), confirming active combat in these claimed areas. Rybar indicates RUF successes near Konstantinovka. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports UAF Special Operations Forces destroyed a Russian assault group on the Pokrovsk direction. "Сливочный каприз" shared a photo captioned "24.06.25 Chasov Yar - Shevchenko" (likely Chasiv Yar area), indicating continued RUF focus on these critical sectors. Два майора published video from Konstantinovka direction, Yablonovka, showing drone strikes on enemy positions and assault actions by RUF soldiers. STERNENKO shared drone footage indicating Russian origin, showing a residential area in Donetsk Oblast with significant damage and an explosion, suggesting continued RUF strikes on civilian infrastructure within contested zones. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 shared video of "BLACK SKY" unit of 3rd Separate Presidential Brigade "Spartan" striking RUF forces in western outskirts of Novoserhiivka, implying active UAF defense/counter-attack. "Сливочный каприз" also shared new photo captioned "24.06.25 Krasnoarmeysk - Novoekonomicheskoe" (Pokrovsk direction) and a video with "Rubicon" and MoD Russia logos showing a drone strike on a vehicle, which they claim caused a "200" (KIA). New alert for 16 UAVs heading towards Dobropillia/Druzhkivka. Colonelcassad shared video of RUF destroying a UAF AGS crew on the Konstantinovka direction. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast. TASS reports FPV drone strikes by "Yug" group destroyed an American M119 howitzer and an ammunition depot in DNR. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (Paratrooper's Diary) shared video captioned "Поражение группы пехоты" (Defeat of an infantry group), showing aerial footage of explosions, likely from a drone strike, with a parachute and wings emblem, suggesting RUF airborne operations or targeting of UAF infantry. WarGonzo shared multiple photo messages with map overlays for Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar directions, showing claimed RUF advances and active combat zones. Народная милиция ДНР shared video of successful Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS RF) airstrikes on a UAF fortified area near Popov Yar, showing smoke plumes and cratering in agricultural fields. Операция Z reports that "Geraniums" struck a UAV assembly workshop at Kramatorsk airfield, with video evidence of the strike. Colonelcassad also shared a video captioned "Удар Герани с оптической системой наведения по цели ВСУ в аэропорту Краматорска," reinforcing this claim. "Сливочный каприз" shared a photo captioned "25.06.25 Великая Новосёлка - Ялта" (Great Novosilka - Yalta) which aligns with previous RUF claims of advancements in the Velyka Novosilka sector. Воин DV reported the "liberation" of Yalta by the "Vostok" Group of Forces, including video evidence. MoD Russia reports that the Vostok Group of Forces liberated Yalta (Donetsk People's Republic). Alex Parker Returns amplified this, referring to it as the "third liberated Yalta." Народная милиция ДНР shared video claiming destruction of UAF artillery and armored vehicles in Alekseyevka. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared video of a successful UAF drone strike near Pokrovsk, targeting RUF personnel under camouflage nets. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RUF liberated Yalta, Donetsk People's Republic. РБК-Україна reports Konstantinovka is on the verge of a humanitarian catastrophe, citing Donetsk OVA, indicating severe civilian impact and potential RUF proximity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on Perebudova, Dyleyevka; UAF confirms active combat; LOW CONFIDENCE – independent verification of RUF control over these settlements and the tactical implications for Konstantinovka; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Rybar's claim, requires verification; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF successful action reported by Butusov Plus; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - "Сливочный каприз" photo, indicates activity in Chasiv Yar direction; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Два майора video of combat in Konstantinovka direction; HIGH CONFIDENCE - STERNENKO drone footage, indicates RUF strikes; HIGH CONFIDENCE - DeepState video of UAF strikes; HIGH CONFIDENCE - "Сливочный каприз" new photo/video). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF map claims, unverified). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

• Luhansk Oblast: RUF sources continue to claim the "liberation" of Petrovske (Hrekivka), asserting that "LNR is completely liberated." The UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports clashes yesterday near Tverdokhlibove, Ridkodub, Karpivka, Kolodyazi and towards Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyny, Novyi Myr, Olhivka (Lyman direction), indicating active combat in the broader area of Hrekivka/Petrovske. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the 3rd Assault Brigade is pushing occupiers out near Ridkodub. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shared video titled "The Third Assault is knocking out the occupiers in the area of Ridkodub!" Николаевский Ванёк also reports the 3rd Assault Brigade is "knockings out occupiers" near Ridkodub. Басурин (Basurin) claims RUF confidently advancing on Krasnolimansk direction with video of artillery fire. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared video of destruction of an enemy Grad MLRS system in Lyman direction, Donetsk Oblast by a UAV. Colonelcassad and Военкор Котенок posted aerial footage of the Serebryanskoye forestry, describing it as modern combat zone with "fiber optic cables" from FPV drones, indicating intense drone warfare in this sector. Оперативний ЗСУ also shared video of Serebryanskoye forest, describing it as "legendary" and "covered in fiber optics from drones," confirming intense drone warfare in this sector. TASS reports AFU controls less than 0.5% of Luhansk Oblast, citing Marochko. Rybar shares video on "Liberation of Grigorievka and battles for Verkhnekamenskoye." Colonelcassad reports on drone strikes by "Rubikon" unit of 144th division destroying an ammunition depot near Kolodezi. Kotsnews reports that "Starlink" has been banned in the LPR, indicating RUF efforts to control communication in occupied territories. Mash na Donbasse, Colonelcassad, and НгП раZVедка corroborate the Starlink ban in LNR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on Petrovske/Hrekivka, UAF confirms active combat; LOW CONFIDENCE – verification of RUF control over Petrovske/Hrekivka; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report of counter-action and supporting video; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Basurin's claim, unverified; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Colonelcassad/Voenkor Kotenok reports on Serebryanskoye forestry, indicating active combat and high drone usage; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF video of Grad destruction; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Оперативний ЗСУ video on Serebryanskoye forest). (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF reports of Starlink ban).

• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): RUF launched ballistic missiles against Dnipro city. Updated reports from UAF official sources and local administration confirm an increase in casualties: 20 dead and nearly 300 wounded. Оперативний ЗСУ states 15 dead and over 200 injured, citing OMA. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports four explosions in Dnipropetrovovsk industrial zone, likely Iskander. RUF sources claim a "powerful strike" was made against a "locomotive repair plant in Dnipropetrovovsk," framing it as a strike on UAF logistics. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claimed RUF forces hit a "rocket and armored vehicle production plant" in Dnipropetrovsk. Zelenskiy / Official also shared video of a damaged passenger train, indicating a direct hit on railway infrastructure. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація explicitly states the passenger train "Odesa - Zaporizhzhia" was damaged. РБК-Україна reports an expert called the strike a "targeted attack or psychological terror," aimed at hitting moving objects like trains, making them difficult to intercept. Олексій Білошицький shared videos showing police officers providing first aid to an individual in a car accident in Dnipro, indicating continued civilian emergency response after the strike. Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reported continued enemy attacks on Nikopol region, specifically Nikopol, Marhanets, Myrove, Chervonohryhorivka, Pokrovsk communities, with associated damage photos. New UAV threat in Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. New alert for UAV from Kharkiv Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. New alert for UAV from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast towards Poltava Oblast. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports 20 dead and nearly 300 wounded from yesterday's Russian attack on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Олександр Вілкул reports Kryvyi Rih situation is controlled. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shared a video message with a static image and text "ДНІПРО SAMAR" and "ДЕНЬ ЖАЛОБИ" (Day of Mourning) commemorating victims. STERNENKO reports the number of victims of yesterday's Russian attack on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast has increased to 20. Олександр Вілкул shared photos showing the modernization of heating systems in Kryvyi Rih, indicating continued civilian infrastructure repair. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued a new alert for ballistic missile threat from the eastern direction, specifically towards Poltava Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and Zaporizhzhia Oblast. A UAF air raid alert for ballistic missile threat was later cancelled. Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) confirms the death toll in Dnipro has risen to 19. Оперативний ЗСУ corroborates this, reporting 19 dead in Dnipro and an additional 2 in Samara, with over 300 wounded. The earlier casualty figure of 20 dead cited by some sources is now updated to 19 in Dnipro and 2 in Samara (total 21 KIA in Oblast). (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF/Independent sources on impacts and casualties, including the increase to 21 KIA and over 300 wounded; HIGH CONFIDENCE – Civilian targeting; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on specific military target within Dnipro, requires BDA; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Damage to passenger train confirmed; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Poddubny reporting on Iskander use; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claim on missile/armored vehicle plant, requires BDA; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Оперативний ЗСУ casualty update; HIGH CONFIDENCE - РБК-Україна expert analysis; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Олексій Білошицький video, shows civilian impact and response). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

• Sumy Oblast: The UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) explicitly reports UAF forces repelled 10 RUF assaults yesterday in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, confirming active combat and persistent RUF pressure in the border region. A new map from Z комитет + карта СВО on the Sumy direction (June 13-23, 2025) highlights territorial changes. STERNENKO shared video of defensive positions in Sumy region. Kotsnews reports on "the first report on the advance of the Russian Armed Forces in Sumy Oblast." Air Force of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued new alerts for KAB launches on Sumy Oblast at 18:22Z and 18:31Z. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports a destroyed Abrams tank in Sumy Oblast due to Lancet. STERNENKO also shared video of "Wings to Hell" (UAF drone unit) destroying a "Buryat samurai" (RUF soldier) with a tactical net in Sumy Oblast. Старше Эдды (Starshe Eddy) published an "Exclusive. First report from the 'buffer zone' in Sumy Oblast," including multiple photos depicting a rural road, damaged houses, and debris, aiming to validate RUF claims of presence. Николаевский Ванёк reports a collection for transport for drone operators of 421st Separate UAV Battalion "Sapsan" on the Sumy direction. STERNENKO reports on "drone safety" in Kursk, Lipetsk, Belgorod, Saratov, Voronezh, Tambov, and Penza Oblasts. Igor Артамонов (Governor, Lipetsk Oblast) reported "UAV threat cancelled," indicating recent UAF drone activity and RUF AD response in Lipetsk Oblast. A new "yellow" air danger level was announced for all of Lipetsk Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ shared a video showing FPV drone activity in Sumy Oblast over deceased RUF personnel. New alert for UAVs in Sumy Oblast, moving southwest. New alert for 1 UAV heading towards Sumy city from the north. New alert for UAV towards Sumy city cancelled. ТАСС reports RUF advancing in Sumy Oblast using small groups to stretch enemy forces, citing Alaudinov. AV БогомаZ reports a RUF UAV was destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. Colonelcassad reports on demining operations in Kursk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad shared a photo message about the situation of UAF in Sumy, including a new GUR unit, indicating RUF monitoring and IO on the northern front. STERNENKO reports an ammunition depot is detonating in Transbaikal Krai (Zabaikalsky Krai) of Russia, on the territory of a military unit, with video evidence of explosions and smoke. Alex Parker Returns shared videos from Sumy Oblast depicting Special Operations Forces work and highlighting a "guerrilla" conflict. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports an FPV drone attack by UAF on a civilian KamAZ truck in Bilovsky district of Kursk Oblast, injuring a 52-year-old man. UAF Air Force reports activity of RUF tactical aviation in the northeastern direction (likely Sumy/Kharkiv). (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF repelled assaults in Sumy/Kursk; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claim of "buffer zone" in Sumy, active combat confirmed; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF defensive preparations in Sumy, RUF KAB strikes in Sumy; LOW CONFIDENCE - Abrams destruction claim, unverified; HIGH CONFIDENCE - STERNENKO drone footage; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Starshe Eddy reporting and photos, intent is to confirm RUF presence; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Mykolaiv Vanok's report on UAF drone unit transport collection; HIGH CONFIDENCE - STERNENKO drone safety report; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Igor Artamonov's update on AD status; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Air Force of Ukraine KAB alerts). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF Air Force report).

• Kharkiv Oblast: UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Hremyach of Chernihiv region, Vovchanski Khutory, Artilne, Zybyne of Kharkiv region, Popiv Yar of Donetsk region. Clashes yesterday near Vovchansk and Kamyanka (South Slobozhansky direction) and near Stepova Novoselivka, Kruhlyakivka, Zelenti Hai, towards Pischane and Kurylivka (Kupyansk direction). MoD Russia published video of Grad MLRS strike near the border in Kharkiv region. Привид Хортиці (Ghost of Khortytsia) shared video of UAF drone operations targeting enemy positions and a boat in Slobozhanshchyna, demonstrating UAF counter-action capabilities. Colonelcassad shared video claiming destruction of an enemy UAV control point in Kharkiv Oblast (likely a UAF asset). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shared video of 3rd Separate Tank "Iron" Brigade destroying RUF forces, captioned "These are our heavens, this is our land!", and a new FPV drone video targeting an RUF UAZ vehicle ("bukhanka"). New KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in eastern Kharkiv Oblast. Операция Z shared video claiming "Thunder" (RUF drone unit) burning enemy equipment near Kupyansk. New alert for several groups of UAVs in eastern Kharkiv Oblast heading west. New alert for UAV in Kharkiv city. New alerts for 6 UAVs from Bilhorod towards Kharkiv, and several groups from the north towards Kharkiv city. Explosions reported in Kharkiv city, striking a civilian enterprise. RUF launched at least 7 strikes on Kharkiv city. New alert for UAVs in Kharkiv towards Dnipropetrovsk. New alerts for UAVs towards Kharkiv city cancelled. RUF UAV strike reported to have hit a civilian enterprise in Kyivskyi district of Kharkiv. Another hit was recorded in Shevchenkivskyi district. Total of four Geran-2 UAVs struck a civilian enterprise in Kyivskyi district. РБК-Україна reports Kharkiv was attacked by seven Shahed-type drones. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 64-year-old man wounded in Kharkiv attack. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports RUF also struck Kupyansk overnight. РБК-Україна reports RUF also struck Kupyansk with KABs overnight. New video from Colonelcassad showing FPV drone strike on UAF pickup truck in Kupyansk vicinity. Оперативний ЗСУ reports 7 Shahed UAVs struck Kyivskyi district in Kharkiv. Воин DV shared video claiming 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade hit a UAV control point in Shakhtarsk direction. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА shared multiple photos from his visit with Ukraine's Minister of Education and Science, Oksen Lisovyi, in Kharkiv Oblast, inspecting construction/renovation sites. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new KAB launches on Kharkiv Oblast. ASTRA reports that Russian forces struck Kharkiv overnight, injuring a pensioner, with associated photos of damaged buildings, smoke, and firefighting efforts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new KAB launches on Kharkiv Oblast. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shared a video of a Russian "Molniya" (Lightning) loitering munition being intercepted/destroyed, with the Khartia unit logo. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС also shared the video of the "Molniya" being destroyed. Colonelcassad shared a video from the Vovchansk (Volchansk) direction, appealing for support for RUF assault troops. Николаевский Ванёк reports ballistic missile heading to Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target on Izium, Kharkiv Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк reports successful interception of the missile targeting Chuhuiv. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that SBU and National Police detained a Russian agent in Kharkiv who allegedly passed a mined scooter to UAF personnel as "volunteer aid." Oleg Sinegubov, Governor of Kharkiv Oblast, shared photos from a visit to defense industry facilities in the region, emphasizing their importance for frontline support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports on RUF airstrikes and clashes; HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF MLRS activity in Kharkiv; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF drone operations in Kharkiv; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim of UAV control point destruction; HIGH CONFIDENCE - ОТУ "Харків" videos). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ shared a video showing a 92nd Separate Assault Brigade soldier shooting down a RUF FPV drone with a shotgun as it attempted to hit a UAF pickup truck transporting personnel. This highlights continued UAF ingenuity and adaptive counter-drone tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF BDA).

• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Malynivka, Novoandriyivka, Kamyanske, Novooleksandrivka, Novopavlivka, Stepnohirsk of Zaporizhzhia region. UAF Air Force reports activity of RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration is scaling up protection for Defense Forces by constructing new anti-drone tunnels for logistics routes. Air Force of Ukraine reports missile danger and KAB launches in Zaporizhzhia. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued an alert for ballistic missile threat from the southern direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared video of 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade operators downing a Russian "Orlan-30" reconnaissance UAV near Zaporizhzhia with an FPV drone. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration) reports RUF conducted an airstrike on one of the settlements in Polohy district. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also shared photos of housing restoration in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, graduation ceremonies, and a photo postcard titled "Melitopol is Ukraine." Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posted a photo with the caption "Zaporozhye direction," implying continued RUF focus or operations in this area. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition claimed a British mercenary was killed near Mali Shcherbaky during a UAF attempt to recapture the area. New KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Mash na Donbasse reports part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast without power due to UAF strike. New UAV in Zaporizhzhia Oblast heading towards Dnipropetrovsk (Synelnykivskyi district). New alert for UAV from the south heading towards Zaporizhzhia city. New fast target on Zaporizhzhia. Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia, with damage. Two missiles impacted Zaporizhzhia. РБК-Україна reports two people wounded in Zaporizhzhia strikes. Air raid alert cancelled in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an air raid alert. Оперативний ЗСУ reports 4 strikes on Zaporizhzhia, 2 wounded, with video evidence of damaged civilian infrastructure. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports 9 private homes damaged by missile strikes on Zaporizhzhia. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares video of a private house impacted by an explosion. WarGonzo shared multiple photo messages with map overlays for the Zaporizhzhia Front. Два майора published a video of a tactical drone strike in Zaporizhzhia region. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posted a new photo message with the caption "🪂 Запорожское направление." 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shared a video showcasing the delivery of military aid, including generators, drones (DJI Mavic), and possibly Starlink terminals, to Ukrainian forces on the Zaporizhzhia direction. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports 469 strikes on settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in the past day. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issued a new alert for a ballistic missile threat from the eastern direction. UAF air raid alert was later cancelled. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shared a video showing administrative staff working in a bomb shelter for ID card/passport services. TASS reports RUF military expert Marochko stating that RUF has liberated Yalta (DNR) because UAF units cannot consolidate positions after taking Zaporizhzhia. This is a contradictory RUF claim aimed at discrediting UAF operational capacity on a different axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official reports on AD alerts; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF counter-UAV action and supporting video; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Zaporizhzhia OMA on airstrike; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Zaporizhzhia OMA on housing restoration; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Zaporizhzhia OMA on graduation ceremony; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Zaporizhzhia OMA on Melitopol; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo). (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, requires verification). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF map claims, unverified). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF presence). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF logistical support). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF report on widespread damage). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

• Kherson Oblast: UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 3 Russian army assaults in the Kherson direction. "Два майора" shared video of FPV drone and UAV-KT combat work by 127th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade in Kherson direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reported that RUF began to disconnect mobile internet in the occupied part of Kherson Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк reports UAF "tigers" captured another prisoner on the left bank of Kherson Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shared a photo/map of the "Kherson direction." АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shared a video claiming the "Espanyola" special forces marine detachment thwarted UAF landing plans on Crimea. MoD Russia released video showing signalmen of the 49th Army, Dnepr Group of Forces, in Kherson region. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА also shared video of an FPV drone. ТАСС reports Saldo (RUF-appointed governor) states AFU conducting massive attack by aircraft-type UAVs on Kherson Oblast. Операция Z shared video captioned "The enemy is attacking Kazan and Kherson region." Два майора is conducting a "collection for Kherson direction." New alert for 3 UAVs flying past Oleksandrivka, towards Pravdyne/Posad-Pokrovske. New alert for UAVs in southern Mykolaiv Oblast heading northeast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims a large UAF unit was destroyed by missile strikes in Kherson direction. MoD Russia shared video of civilian evacuation from Bahatyr. Kotsnews shared multiple videos of civilian evacuation from Bahatyr. Воин DV shared video claiming "Baltic brothers" from the 336th Guards Marine Brigade struck a UAF vehicle during personnel disembarkation, showing thermal footage of explosions. Colonelcassad shared a video purportedly showing a civilian woman expressing gratitude and relief at the arrival of Russian military forces, likely in a recently occupied or contested settlement, suggesting RUF propaganda efforts to legitimize their presence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official report; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF combat footage, unverified BDA by UAF; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF reporting on RUF internet shutdown; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF capture of prisoner; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo/map of Kherson direction, indicating continued RUF focus; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА video, unverified BDA, likely propaganda; HIGH CONFIDENCE - MoD Russia video on Kherson; HIGH CONFIDENCE - АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА new video; HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS report on Kherson UAV attack). (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF acknowledgement). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, confirms RUF presence and evacuation efforts). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO).

• Odesa Oblast: STERNENKO reports that Vasya Lomachenko is upset due to the Russian strike on a lyceum in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports that three employees were killed in the strike on the lyceum in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also named the three killed employees. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued new alert for "Several groups of UAVs in the Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast." New report of 14 UAVs in the Black Sea, and two of them north of Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. Николаевский Ванёк reports 2 UAVs were shot down near Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. New alert for UAVs heading towards Odesa Oblast (Sarata). New alert for UAVs from Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast (Vylkove). New alert for UAVs from Black Sea towards southern Odesa Oblast. New alert for 6 UAVs from Black Sea towards Primorske/Tatarbunary, Odesa Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк reports 9 UAVs heading to Vylkove. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAVs in Vylkove. Николаевский Ванёк reports that out of 16 UAVs towards Vylkove, 7 remain. РБК-Україна reports explosions in Vylkove. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RUF forces struck a UAF military unit in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. Сили оборони Півдня України reports 17 Shahed-131/136 UAVs were destroyed in the operational zone of "South" Group of Forces over the past day. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a Shahed UAV strike on infrastructure in Vylkove. РБК-Україна reports initial details of RUF attack on Vylkove, saying "enemy tries to leave the city without water." БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports successful UAF air defense against Shahed drones, including an F-16 using an AIM-9 Sidewinder and a Mi-24 helicopter using machine gun fire, demonstrating multi-layered UAF air defense capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF reporting on strike). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF BDA).

• Other Axes (UAF General Staff Reports):

  • Siversk direction: Clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka and Ivano-Daryivka.
  • Kramatorsk direction: Clashes yesterday near Chasiv Yar, Stupochky and towards Bila Hora. "Сливочный каприз" shared a photo captioned "24.06.25 Chasov Yar - Shevchenko" (likely Chasiv Yar area). WarGonzo shared multiple photo messages with map overlays for Chasiv Yar. Colonelcassad shared a video captioned "Удар Герани с оптической системой наведения по цели ВСУ в аэропорту Краматорска." Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition also shared video of the claimed destruction of a UAV assembly workshop at Kramatorsk airfield.
  • Novopavlivka direction: Clashes yesterday near Bahatyr, Zelene Pole, Vesele, Novosilka, Shevchenko, Vilne Pole, also towards Novopil, Zaporizhzhya and Komar. Воин DV posted video on the "liberation" of Bahatyr over a month ago and the subsequent civilian evacuation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - "Сливочный каприз" photo, indicates activity in Chasiv Yar direction; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Воин DV video confirms combat history in Bahatyr). UAF General Staff provided an operational update for 22:00 24.06.25, 06:00 25.06.25, 08:00 25.06.25, and 10:00 25.06.25, detailing ongoing clashes. UAF General Staff reports at 11:00 25.06.2025 detailing continued offensive actions by RUF along multiple axes, particularly Pokrovsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

• RF Territory (Various Regions): ASTRA and RUF MoD via TASS claimed Russian air defense forces destroyed 34 Ukrainian UAVs over various regions of Russia, with TASS specifically claiming 18 UAVs shot down in three hours. TASS later updated this, claiming 22 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over various regions of Russia in 3.5 hours (also reported by ASTRA). Igor Artamonov (Governor, Lipetsk Oblast) reports a UAV threat in Usmansky and Dobrinsky districts, now "cancelled." A new "yellow" air danger level was announced for all of Lipetsk Oblast at 04:01:46Z JUN 25. Оперативний ЗСУ shared photos claiming 8 RUF oil depots after drone attacks by UAV forces. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows video of a RUF soldier killed by UAF drone. РБК-Україна reports RUF has dropped almost 100 bombs on its own and occupied territories since the beginning of the year. STERNENKO shared video of "Novem Group" destroying RUF logistics in Kursk Oblast. ТАСС reports "Aeroflot" is adjusting flight schedules to Kazan, Samara, and Saratov due to restrictions. ASTRA confirms "Aeroflot" flight adjustments. AV БогомаZ (Governor, Bryansk Oblast) reports "Over the territory of Bryansk Oblast, air defense forces of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation detected and destroyed an aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicle." AV БогомаZ (Governor of Bryansk Oblast) posted photos about road network development in Bryansk Oblast. Colonelcassad reports that Putin posthumously awarded the Order of Courage to Pavel Mishin, a train driver killed in a bridge collapse in Bryansk Oblast. ASTRA reports 8 UAVs shot down in Ulyanovsk Oblast with internet restricted in the region. Рыбарь shares video message captioned "Organization and conduct of an ambush on enemy transport." ASTRA reported on a new initiative in St. Petersburg where "participants of the war with Ukraine will instill 'traditional values' in schoolchildren." Kotsnews claimed "Kyiv continues to hold 32 Kursky residents hostage." Новости Москвы shared videos of heavy rain and strong winds in Moscow. Операция Z (Military Correspondents of Russian Spring) posted video of aftermath of an alleged enemy attempt to destroy "Espanyola" marine detachment. НгП раZVедка shared video depicting a security operation with a civilian vehicle, individuals in a wooded area (one armed), an incapacitated individual, an FSB vehicle, and electronic equipment with IED components and X-ray imagery of ammunition. This indicates ongoing internal security concerns and counter-sabotage operations within RF territory. Colonelcassad reports the detention of two Moldovan intelligence agents in Moscow with tasks against Russian security. Alex Parker Returns corroborates this. This suggests heightened counter-intelligence activities and perceived foreign interference. MoD Russia reports the Russian Aerospace Forces received another batch of Su-35S aircraft. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 corroborates this with photos and video of new Su-35S aircraft, indicating continued Russian military-industrial output and force modernization, despite sanctions. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a military unit in Chita, Siberia, has multiple fires and ongoing detonation for several hours, with fire aviation deployed, indicating a significant incident, possibly an ammunition depot explosion. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Britain will transfer 350 advanced air defense missiles to Ukraine, purchased from frozen Russian assets, indicating continued western support using novel financing methods. ASTRA reports two servicemen robbed and assaulted a passerby in Moscow, highlighting potential disciplinary issues within the RF armed forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims, RUF internal reporting on UAV threats; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF claims on oil depot strikes; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF combat footage; HIGH CONFIDENCE - RBC-Ukraine report on RUF dropping bombs on own territory; HIGH CONFIDENCE - STERNENKO video of strike on RUF logistics in Kursk; HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS/ASTRA reports on Aeroflot flight adjustments; HIGH CONFIDENCE - AV БогомаZ post on road development; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Igor Artamonov's update; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Colonelcassad report on Bryansk incident; HIGH CONFIDENCE - ASTRA on Ulyanovsk UAVs). (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Rybar video, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, confirms military unit fire). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF reports on aid). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - ASTRA report).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations:

• Weather in Eastern Ukraine remains generally temperate. However, recent reports of heavy rain and strong winds in Moscow (Новости Москвы) indicate potential for similar weather systems to impact northern and eastern fronts, which could affect air operations (especially drone activity) and ground mobility (muddy conditions). The fire in Chita, Siberia, suggests dry conditions in some parts of RF territory which could impact ground maneuver in similar terrain closer to the front. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues offensive operations along the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, with claims of localized gains (Dyleyevka, Perebudova, Yalta). UAF is actively defending and conducting localized counter-attacks, demonstrating robust resistance.
• Luhansk Oblast: RUF maintains pressure on the Lyman direction, claiming Petrovske (Hrekivka). UAF 3rd Assault Brigade is actively pushing back near Ridkodub. High intensity drone warfare in Serebryanskoye forestry.
• Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts: RUF continues probing attacks (10 repelled assaults) and KAB strikes. Significant RUF force concentration (52,000 personnel) remains a critical threat on the Sumy axis. UAF is actively maintaining defensive lines and conducting counter-drone operations. UAF defense industry activity noted in Kharkiv.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RUF maintains air superiority with persistent airstrikes and reconnaissance UAV activity. UAF is focused on defending against these strikes and bolstering logistics protection with anti-drone tunnels.
• Kherson Oblast: UAF repelled 3 RUF assaults. RUF is active on the left bank, conducting signal operations and civilian evacuations. UAF reports RUF disconnecting mobile internet in occupied Kherson, indicating an attempt to control the information space and restrict UAF intelligence collection.
• RF Territory: Widespread UAF drone activity continues deep inside Russia, targeting oil depots and other facilities. RF AD is active in multiple regions. Internal security concerns are evident with reported arrests of foreign agents and ongoing counter-sabotage operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Capabilities:
  • Ground Forces: RUF maintains substantial ground force capabilities, particularly the reported 52,000 personnel on the Sumy axis. They demonstrate sustained offensive capacity in Donetsk Oblast with attritional gains. WarGonzo video shows Russian artillery crews in action, indicating continued fire support capabilities.
  • Air/Missile Forces: Proven capability for massed ballistic missile (Iskander-M), Shahed UAV, and KAB strikes targeting critical infrastructure and civilian population centers, designed to inflict mass casualties and psychological terror. Continued receipt of new Su-35S aircraft (MoD Russia, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) enhances their tactical aviation capabilities. UAF Air Force reports RUF tactical aviation activity in the northeast direction.
  • Hybrid/Information Warfare: Highly sophisticated and adaptive IO apparatus capable of fabricating global narratives (Israel-Iran) and formalizing pretexts for escalation (Krokus City Hall). Demonstrated capability to conduct internal security operations against alleged foreign agents and saboteurs (Moldovan intelligence agents in Moscow).
• Intentions:
  • Strategic Offensive: RUF's primary intention remains a large-scale offensive, most likely on the northern front (Sumy/Kharkiv), aimed at opening new axes, stretching UAF defenses, and seizing strategic territory. The formalized blame for the Krokus attack provides a political and popular mandate for this.
  • Degradation of UAF Capacity: Continued efforts to degrade UAF's force generation capabilities (training centers), logistics (railway infrastructure, alleged locomotive plant), and industrial base (UAV assembly workshops).
  • Terror and Coercion: Sustained deliberate targeting of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and population centers to break morale and coerce political concessions.
  • Information Control: Dominate the information space, both domestically and internationally, by manipulating narratives, blaming Ukraine for attacks on RF territory, and discrediting UAF. Banning Starlink in LNR is a direct effort to control information.
• Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:
  • Increased Ballistic Missile Targeting of Civilian Infrastructure: The Dnipro strike clearly indicates a shift to explicit mass casualty targeting with high-precision ballistic missiles.
  • Enhanced IO Agility: RUF's rapid pivot from a fabricated global crisis back to a formalized pretext for an offensive against Ukraine demonstrates increased sophistication and speed in their information operations.
  • Adaptive Counter-Drone Measures (UAF reports): RUF UAVs are becoming more resilient or are being used in swarm tactics to overwhelm UAF AD, as suggested by large numbers of UAVs in Odesa and Kharkiv.
  • Focus on UAF Logistic Nodes/Industrial Base: Strikes on Kramatorsk UAV workshop and alleged Dnipro locomotive plant highlight a targeting shift.
• Logistics and Sustainment Status:
  • RUF continues to sustain offensive operations across multiple axes. The reported delivery of new Su-35S aircraft indicates continued military-industrial production and a capacity to replenish high-value assets.
  • UAF strikes on 8 RUF oil depots deep inside Russia suggest an attempt to degrade their fuel supply chain, but the full impact is yet to be seen. The fire/detonations at a military unit in Chita (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) could represent a significant logistical setback if it was an ammunition depot. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Overall sustainment; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Air force replenishment).
• Command and Control Effectiveness:
  • RUF C2 remains effective, coordinating complex multi-domain attacks (ballistic missiles, KABs, ground assaults). The ability to conduct large-scale information operations indicates a centralized and effective IO command.
  • Reported disconnection of mobile internet in occupied Kherson (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) and the ban of Starlink in LNR (Mash na Donbasse, Colonelcassad, НгП раZVедка) suggests RUF is actively exercising control over communication in occupied areas, which can hinder UAF C2 and intelligence gathering within those territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• UAF forces are in a defensive posture across all major axes, actively repelling RUF assaults (10 in Sumy/Kursk, 3 in Kherson).
• Active Defense: UAF units are demonstrating strong defensive capabilities and tactical agility, exemplified by the 92nd Separate Assault Brigade shooting down an FPV drone with a shotgun.
• Counter-Offensive Capability: The 3rd Assault Brigade's successful pushback near Ridkodub and UAF SOF destruction of an RUF assault group on the Pokrovsk direction indicate continued capability for localized offensive actions.
• Force Generation: While RUF aims to degrade UAF force generation (training centers), the announced mass production of Sapsan OTRK ballistic missiles and joint drone production with the UK indicates UAF is actively building and modernizing its domestic defense industry. Oleg Sinegubov's visit to defense industry facilities in Kharkiv further reinforces this.
• Logistical Resilience: Construction of anti-drone tunnels in Zaporizhzhia indicates adaptive measures to protect logistical routes.
• Readiness: High, given the persistent and escalating RUF pressure and the clear threat of a major offensive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes:
  • Repelled 10 RUF assaults on the Sumy/Kursk direction.
  • Repelled 3 RUF assaults on the Kherson direction.
  • UAF SOF destroyed a RUF assault group on Pokrovsk direction.
  • 3rd Assault Brigade successfully pushing back RUF near Ridkodub (Lyman direction).
  • Successful UAF drone strikes on 8 RUF oil depots and destruction of a Grad MLRS.
  • Successful interception of 78 of 97 RUF UAVs overnight.
  • Successful UAF counter-drone operations (e.g., 92nd Brigade shotgun takedown of FPV, Khartia unit destroying "Molniya" loitering munition, 128th Brigade downing "Orlan-30", F-16 and Mi-24 engaging Shahed).
  • Detention of Russian agent in Kharkiv attempting sabotage (mined scooter).
  • Denmark confirmed as first country for joint defense production.
  • UK to transfer 350 advanced air defense missiles using frozen Russian assets.
• Setbacks:
  • Mass civilian casualties (21 KIA, over 300 wounded) in Dnipro due to ballistic missile strike on civilian infrastructure, including a passenger train and schools. This represents a significant humanitarian and psychological blow.
  • Unverified RUF claims of tactical gains in Donetsk Oblast (Dyleyevka, Perebudova, Yalta) and continued pressure on Konstantinovka.
  • Civilian enterprise struck in Kharkiv by UAVs.
  • UAF civilian property damage in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (469 strikes reported). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Critical Need: Air Defense: Continued and enhanced supply of advanced AD systems, particularly for ballistic missile and KAB interception, is paramount given recent RUF targeting patterns. The commitment of 350 advanced AD missiles from the UK is a positive development.
• High Need: Counter-UAV Systems: While UAF is innovative, the sheer volume of RUF UAVs (97 detected overnight) necessitates more integrated and advanced electronic warfare (EW) and kinetic anti-drone systems.
• High Need: Reconnaissance Assets: Enhanced ISR capabilities are critical for providing early warning of the anticipated major RUF ground offensive on the Sumy axis.
• Sustainment of Aid: Continued international military and financial aid is crucial to sustain defensive operations and ongoing force generation efforts. Ukrainian government seeks to increase military budget by 400 billion UAH (РБК-Україна).
• Civilian Protection: Resources for rapid response, medical aid, and civilian infrastructure repair (Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv) are heavily strained by persistent RUF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• RUF Dominant Narrative:
  • Formal Blame for Krokus City Hall Attack: RUF has officially blamed Ukraine for the Krokus attack, providing a clear and potent pretext for escalated aggression. This is a highly significant and dangerous development.
  • "Liberation" Narratives: Continued claims of liberating settlements (Perebudova, Dyleyevka, Yalta) to project an image of advancing success and control.
  • Denial/Justification of Civilian Casualties: Framing strikes on civilian infrastructure as targeting "military objects" (e.g., locomotive plant in Dnipro, military unit in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi).
  • "Ukrainian Instability": RUF channels (Операция Z) attempting to highlight internal Ukrainian discontent (e.g., UAF veterans protesting corruption on Maidan; "Зона СВО" claims "Maidan-2" possible). This is aimed at undermining internal cohesion and international confidence in Ukraine.
  • "Foreign Mercenary" Narratives: Claims of foreign mercenaries being killed in "suicidal missions" (Mali Shcherbaky) to demoralize UAF and deter foreign support.
  • Internal Security Narratives: Highlighting the detention of alleged foreign agents (Moldovan intelligence in Moscow) and counter-sabotage operations to reinforce a narrative of external threats to RF. Alex Parker Returns attempts to incite ethnic hatred in Siberia, framing migrants as a threat and Chechens as a controlling force, likely to distract from the conflict or fuel internal divisions within RF.
  • Diplomatic Spin: TASS reporting on high-level RF-China relations aims to project strong international alliances for RF.
  • Starlink Ban: Banning Starlink in LNR is a direct move to control information flow and communications for local populations, limiting their access to independent news and UAF communications.
• UAF Counter-Narrative:
  • Victimization and Resilience: Highlighting mass civilian casualties and damage from RUF strikes (Dnipro, Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi) to garner international sympathy and support. Emphasis on "Day of Mourning" for Dnipro victims.
  • Defensive Successes: Emphasizing repelled assaults and successful counter-drone operations to demonstrate military effectiveness and resilience.
  • Civilian Life Continuity: Showcasing ongoing civilian activities (graduation ceremonies, administrative services in bomb shelters) and infrastructure repair (Kryvyi Rih heating, Zaporizhzhia housing) to project normalcy and resistance. Oleg Sinegubov's visit to defense industry facilities reinforces Ukraine's commitment to self-sufficiency.
  • Unity and Resolve: Reinforcing nationalistic themes and the commitment to retake occupied territories (e.g., "Melitopol is Ukraine").
  • International Support: Highlighting new aid packages (Netherlands, Germany) and joint defense production agreements (UK, Denmark) to demonstrate strong international backing.
• Disinformation Impact: RUF's ability to quickly pivot and formalize pretexts (Krokus) demonstrates a dangerous level of narrative control. The prior fabricated Israel-Iran crisis successfully diverted significant international attention for a critical 24-hour period. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian Public: High morale in the face of aggression, but deeply impacted by mass casualty events like the Dnipro strike. The "Day of Mourning" indicates the severe emotional toll. Continued calls for anti-corruption efforts (Veterans on Maidan) highlight domestic issues requiring attention but do not appear to significantly undermine national resolve at present.
• Russian Public: Likely exposed to intensified state propaganda around the Krokus attack, fueling support for further military action. Reports of "participants of the war with Ukraine will instill 'traditional values' in schoolchildren" (ASTRA) indicate ongoing militarization of society and efforts to shape public opinion long-term. Restrictions on internet in Ulyanovsk (ASTRA) and banning of Starlink in LPR (Kotsnews) suggest RUF fear of alternative information sources and attempts to control internal narratives. Reports of internal crime by servicemen in Moscow (ASTRA) could undermine public trust in the military. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Continued Western Support: Confirmation of new aid packages from the Netherlands and Germany (hundreds of thousands of drones, advanced AD radars) and UK agreement for joint drone production highlights ongoing, substantial military and technological support for Ukraine. The commitment of 350 AD missiles from the UK funded by frozen Russian assets sets a new precedent for innovative financing.
• US Sanctions Posture: STERNENKO reports Secretary of State Rubio's comments on the complex relationship between sanctions and negotiations, implying sanctions might be lifted for peace. This could be perceived by RUF as a weakening of resolve and may embolden further aggression.
• Denmark Joint Production: Denmark will be the first country with which Ukraine launches joint defense production (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS), further diversifying and strengthening Ukraine's long-term defense capabilities.
• NATO Stance (indirect): Donald Trump's comments (Операция Z) regarding potential future discussions with Zelenskyy at a NATO-branded event are significant, indicating the ongoing diplomatic engagement and the political complexities surrounding future aid and peace talks.
• Northern European Stance: RВК-Україна reports Northern European Foreign Ministers named key conditions for a ceasefire in Ukraine, indicating continued diplomatic engagement on a resolution to the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for confirmed aid; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE for US sanctions interpretation due to source bias; HIGH CONFIDENCE for Denmark agreement).

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Immediate Northern Offensive: RUF will launch a major ground offensive in the Sumy Oblast within the next 24-48 hours, supported by intensive KAB and tactical aviation strikes. This will likely be accompanied by continued, high-intensity attritional assaults on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes in Donetsk Oblast. The primary objective is to stretch UAF reserves and create new operational dilemmas, with the secondary objective of seizing key logistical nodes (e.g., Konstantinovka if Dyleyevka/Perebudova claims are consolidated). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Escalated Terror Campaign: RUF will conduct further large-scale, multi-wave missile and UAV strikes on Ukrainian urban centers, with a focus on civilian infrastructure and mass casualties, aimed at psychological coercion and domestic propaganda amplification. Targets will include critical transport nodes (railways) and energy infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Continued Hybrid Operations: RUF will intensify information operations, particularly focusing on the "Krokus retaliation" narrative, while continuing efforts to sow internal dissent within Ukraine and conduct sabotage operations. The Starlink ban in LNR signals a broader effort to control occupied information space. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Multi-Front Operational Breakthrough: RUF launches a synchronized, large-scale ground offensive across Sumy, Kharkiv, and Luhansk (Lyman) axes, coupled with a major breakthrough attempt on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka axis. This offensive would be preceded by a strategic-level ballistic missile and cruise missile saturation attack targeting key UAF C2 centers, air defense nodes, and critical national infrastructure, including Kyiv. This would aim to achieve a rapid and decisive operational advantage, potentially forcing UAF into a widespread strategic withdrawal. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
• Naval Blockade/Amphibious Threat (Black Sea): RUF attempts to re-establish a more robust naval presence and potentially threaten amphibious operations or landing operations along the Black Sea coast (Odesa Oblast), possibly supported by a new wave of missile strikes on port infrastructure, aimed at disrupting crucial grain exports and international shipping. (LOW CONFIDENCE)

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (0-24 hours): High likelihood of RUF initiating the northern ground offensive and/or launching further mass missile/UAV strikes. Decision Point for UAF: Prioritize strategic reserves and AD asset deployment to the Sumy/Kharkiv axes.
• Short Term (24-72 hours): Continued high-intensity combat on all fronts. RUF will attempt to consolidate any initial gains. Decision Point for UAF: Assess initial RUF penetration and determine need for counter-offensive operations to restore defensive lines.
• Medium Term (1 week+): If a major offensive materializes, the next week will see a sustained high-attrition conflict, with both sides expending significant resources. Decision Point for UAF: Evaluate long-term resource sustainability and adapt defensive strategy based on enemy success or failure in achieving objectives.

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6. RECOMMENDATIONS

• Intelligence & Special Operations:

  1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Deploy enhanced ISR assets (e.g., MALE UAVs, SIGINT, HUMINT) to the Sumy-Kursk border regions and along the Kharkiv axis to provide real-time, granular intelligence on RUF force movements, logistics, and C2 nodes. Prioritize targeting of RUF pre-assault formations.
  2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Activate a dedicated inter-agency cell to monitor, analyze, and aggressively counter RUF's formal Krokus blame-shifting narrative across all global information platforms. Develop and disseminate concise, evidence-based rebuttals in multiple languages to international partners, media, and the public.
  3. URGENT/CRITICAL: Conduct immediate, high-fidelity BDA on the Dnipro ballistic missile strike to identify precise targeting methodology, munition characteristics, and potential RUF intelligence collection vectors. Use this to refine AD and force protection protocols.
  4. URGENT: Increase counter-intelligence operations in Kharkiv and other border regions to disrupt and neutralize RUF sabotage networks, following the recent detention of the alleged agent.
  5. HIGH: Prioritize intelligence collection on RUF military-industrial capabilities, specifically the production and deployment rates of Su-35S aircraft and missile systems, to inform long-term strategic planning. Investigate the Chita military unit fire/detonation for any intelligence implications.

• Air Defense & Force Protection:

  1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Re-posture and reinforce ballistic missile and cruise missile defense systems to protect Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro, and major C2 nodes against potential saturation attacks, anticipating the "retaliation" pretext.
  2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Implement enhanced active and passive air defense measures for all UAF training centers, logistics hubs (especially railway infrastructure), and UAV assembly workshops to mitigate future RUF precision strikes. Disperse critical assets where possible.
  3. URGENT: Accelerate the integration and deployment of newly acquired counter-UAV technologies and EW systems to frontline units, prioritizing those on the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk axes. Promote and widely share effective low-cost counter-drone tactics like the 92nd Brigade's shotgun method.
  4. HIGH: Issue updated civilian alert and shelter-in-place guidance that emphasizes the limitations of basic structures against ballistic missiles, promoting immediate evacuation to dedicated reinforced shelters or basements.

• Ground Forces:

  1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Place all units on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes at maximum alert for imminent major ground operations. Pre-position strategic reserves and fire support assets for rapid response to a multi-axis RUF assault.
  2. URGENT: Reinforce defensive lines and prepare for high-intensity attrition warfare around Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Konstantinovka. Conduct local counter-attacks to prevent RUF consolidation of any new tactical gains.
  3. HIGH: Continue and expand localized counter-offensive operations (e.g., 3rd Assault Brigade near Ridkodub) to disrupt RUF momentum and regain lost ground where tactically feasible.
  4. HIGH: Prioritize delivery and integration of all available armored vehicles, artillery, and precision-guided munitions to frontline units in the most threatened sectors.

• Information Operations & Diplomatic:

  1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch an aggressive, globally coordinated diplomatic and public information campaign exposing Russia's Krokus blame-shifting as a manufactured pretext for further unprovoked aggression, akin to historical false flag operations. Engage all international partners, think tanks, and media organizations.
  2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Publicize detailed, verified evidence of RUF war crimes, specifically the deliberate targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure in Dnipro, and use this evidence to press for increased international sanctions and accelerated delivery of military aid.
  3. URGENT: Proactively highlight UAF successes, including defensive victories, counter-drone operations, and deep strikes into RF territory, to boost domestic morale and demonstrate continued capability to international audiences.
  4. URGENT: Engage with international partners to address the implications of reported US decisions regarding sanctions on Russia, emphasizing that such actions can be perceived as weakness and embolden further aggression.
  5. HIGH: Continue to showcase Ukraine's resilience and commitment to rebuilding (e.g., educational and infrastructure projects) to counter RUF narratives of collapse and maintain long-term international support. Publicize the UK AD missile deal as a model for further asset acquisition.

END OF REPORT