Archived operational intelligence briefing
INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:
Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues to claim "liberation" of Perebudova and control over Dyleyevka, describing it as a "powerful fortified area" on the approaches to Konstantinovka, allowing "fire control" over UAF logistics. "Операция Z" published video claiming "Dyleevka is under our control," showing a heavily damaged building with Russian flags. The UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) continues to report active clashes near Dyliyivka (Toretsk direction) and Pokrovsk direction (Promin, Novotoretske, Myrolubivka, Lysivka, Novoukrayinka, Novoserhiyivka, Udachne, Myrnohrad, Oleksiyivka, Popiv Yar, Malynivka, Koptyevye and towards Shakhove, Volodymyrivka, Molodetske, Serhiyivka, Novopavlivka), confirming active combat in these claimed areas. Rybar indicates RUF successes near Konstantinovka. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports UAF Special Operations Forces destroyed a Russian assault group on the Pokrovsk direction. "Сливочный каприз" (Creamy Caprice) shared a photo captioned "24.06.25 Chasov Yar - Shevchenko" (likely Chasiv Yar area), indicating continued RUF focus on these critical sectors. Два майора published video from Konstantinovka direction, Yablonovka, showing drone strikes on enemy positions and assault actions by RUF soldiers. STERNENKO shared drone footage with the 'MOLOT' logo indicating Russian origin, showing a residential area in Donetsk Oblast with significant damage and an explosion, suggesting continued RUF strikes on civilian infrastructure within contested zones. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 shared video of "BLACK SKY" unit of 3rd Separate Presidential Brigade "Spartan" striking RUF forces in western outskirts of Novoserhiivka, implying active UAF defense/counter-attack. "Сливочный каприз" also shared new photo captioned "24.06.25 Krasnoarmeysk - Novoekonomicheskoe" (Pokrovsk direction) and a video with "Rubicon" and MoD Russia logos showing a drone strike on a vehicle, which they claim caused a "200" (KIA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on Perebudova, Dyleyevka; UAF confirms active combat; LOW CONFIDENCE – independent verification of RUF control over these settlements and the tactical implications for Konstantinovka; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Rybar's claim, requires verification; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF successful action reported by Butusov Plus; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - "Сливочный каприз" photo, indicates activity in Chasiv Yar direction; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Два майора video of combat in Konstantinovka direction; HIGH CONFIDENCE - STERNENKO drone footage, indicates RUF strikes; HIGH CONFIDENCE - DeepState video of UAF strikes; HIGH CONFIDENCE - "Сливочный каприз" new photo/video). New alert for 16 UAVs heading towards Dobropillia/Druzhkivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared video of RUF destroying a UAF AGS crew on the Konstantinovka direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports FPV drone strikes by "Yug" group destroyed an American M119 howitzer and an ammunition depot in DNR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). TASS reports RUF forces have pushed through UAF defenses near Kupyansk, with less than 1 km to the city, citing military expert Andrei Marochko. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (Paratrooper's Diary) shared video captioned "Поражение группы пехоты" (Defeat of an infantry group), showing aerial footage of explosions, likely from a drone strike, with a parachute and wings emblem, suggesting RUF airborne operations or targeting of UAF infantry. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). WarGonzo shared multiple photo messages with map overlays for Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar directions, showing claimed RUF advances and active combat zones, as part of their "Фронтовая сводка на утро 25.06.2025" (Frontline summary for morning 25.06.2025). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF map claims, unverified).
Luhansk Oblast: RUF sources continue to claim the "liberation" of Petrovske (Hrekivka), asserting that "LNR is completely liberated." The UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports clashes yesterday near Tverdokhlibove, Ridkodub, Karpivka, Kolodyazi and towards Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyny, Novyi Myr, Olhivka (Lyman direction), indicating active combat in the broader area of Hrekivka/Petrovske. Оперативний ЗСУ (Operational ZSU) reports the 3rd Assault Brigade is pushing occupiers out near Ridkodub. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shared video titled "The Third Assault is knocking out the occupiers in the area of Ridkodub!" Николаевский Ванёк also reports the 3rd Assault Brigade is "knockings out occupiers" near Ridkodub. Басурин (Basurin) claims RUF confidently advancing on Krasnolimansk direction with video of artillery fire. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared video of destruction of an enemy Grad MLRS system in Lyman direction, Donetsk Oblast by a UAV. Colonelcassad and Военкор Котенок posted aerial footage of the Serebryanskoye forestry, describing it as modern combat zone with "fiber optic cables" from FPV drones, indicating intense drone warfare in this sector. Оперативний ЗСУ also shared video of Serebryanskoye forest, describing it as "legendary" and "covered in fiber optics from drones," confirming intense drone warfare in this sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on Petrovske/Hrekivka, UAF confirms active combat; LOW CONFIDENCE – verification of RUF control over Petrovske/Hrekivka; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report of counter-action and supporting video; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Basurin's claim, unverified; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Colonelcassad/Voenkor Kotenok reports on Serebryanskoye forestry, indicating active combat and high drone usage; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF video of Grad destruction; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Оперативний ЗСУ video on Serebryanskoye forest). TASS reports AFU controls less than 0.5% of Luhansk Oblast, citing Marochko. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified). Rybar shares video on "Liberation of Grigorievka and battles for Verkhnekamenskoye," further indicating RUF focus on this sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). Colonelcassad reports on drone strikes by "Rubikon" unit of 144th division destroying an ammunition depot near Kolodezi. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): RUF launched ballistic missiles against Dnipro city. Updated reports from UAF official sources and local administration (Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Олександр Вілкул) confirm an increase in casualties: 18 dead (РБК-Україна, Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)) and 279 wounded, including 27 children (РБК-Україна, citing OMA). Оперативний ЗСУ states 15 dead and over 200 injured, citing OMA. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports four explosions in Dnipropetrovsk industrial zone, likely Iskander. RUF sources claim a "powerful strike" was made against a "locomotive repair plant in Dnipropetropovsk," framing it as a strike on UAF logistics. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (Paratrooper's Diary) claimed RUF forces hit a "rocket and armored vehicle production plant" in Dnipropetrovsk. Zelenskiy / Official also shared video of a damaged passenger train, indicating a direct hit on railway infrastructure. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration) explicitly states the passenger train "Odesa - Zaporizhzhia" was damaged. РБК-Україна reports an expert called the strike a "targeted attack or psychological terror," aimed at hitting moving objects like trains, making them difficult to intercept. Олексій Білошицький (Deputy Head of Patrol Police Department) shared videos showing police officers providing first aid to an individual in a car accident in Dnipro, indicating continued civilian emergency response after the strike. While not directly military, this indicates the ongoing disruption to civilian life and the need for public services due to RUF attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF/Independent sources on impacts and casualties, including the increase to 18 KIA and 279 wounded; HIGH CONFIDENCE – Civilian targeting; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on specific military target within Dnipro, requires BDA; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Damage to passenger train confirmed; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Poddubny reporting on Iskander use; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claim on missile/armored vehicle plant, requires BDA; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Оперативний ЗСУ casualty update; HIGH CONFIDENCE - РБК-Україна expert analysis; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Олексій Білошицький video, shows civilian impact and response). Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reported continued enemy attacks on Nikopol region, specifically Nikopol, Marhanets, Myrove, Chervonohryhorivka, Pokrovsk communities, with associated damage photos. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAV threat in Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAV from Kharkiv Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAV from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast towards Poltava Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports 20 dead and nearly 300 wounded from yesterday's Russian attack on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олександр Вілкул reports Kryvyi Rih situation is controlled. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shared a video message with a static image and text "ДНІПРО SAMAR" and "ДЕНЬ ЖАЛОБИ" (Day of Mourning) from the Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration, commemorating victims and indicating the severe impact of the strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO reports the number of victims of yesterday's Russian attack on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast has increased to 20. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Sumy Oblast: The UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) explicitly reports UAF forces repelled 10 RUF assaults yesterday in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, confirming active combat and persistent RUF pressure in the border region. A new map from Z комитет + карта СВО on the Sumy direction (June 13-23, 2025) highlights territorial changes. STERNENKO shared video of defensive positions in Sumy region. Kotsnews reports on "the first report on the advance of the Russian Armed Forces in Sumy Oblast." Air Force of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued new alerts for KAB launches on Sumy Oblast at 18:22Z and 18:31Z, indicating continued RUF aerial activity. A new alert was issued for KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast at 00:12:24Z JUN 25. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports a destroyed Abrams tank in Sumy Oblast due to Lancet. STERNENKO also shared video of "Wings to Hell" (UAF drone unit) destroying a "Buryat samurai" (RUF soldier) with a tactical net in Sumy Oblast. Старше Эдды (Starshe Eddy) published an "Exclusive. First report from the 'buffer zone' in Sumy Oblast," including multiple photos depicting a rural road, damaged houses, and debris, aiming to validate RUF claims of presence. Николаевский Ванёк reports a collection for transport for drone operators of 421st Separate UAV Battalion "Sapsan" on the Sumy direction. STERNENKO reports on "drone safety" (implying UAF drone activity or RUF air defense focus) in Kursk, Lipetsk, Belgorod, Saratov, Voronezh, Tambov, and Penza Oblasts. Игорь Артамонов (Governor, Lipetsk Oblast) reported "UAV threat cancelled" (Отбой красного уровня «Угроза атаки БПЛА»), indicating recent UAF drone activity and RUF AD response in Lipetsk Oblast. A new "yellow" air danger level was announced for all of Lipetsk Oblast at 04:01:46Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF repelled assaults in Sumy/Kursk; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claim of "buffer zone" in Sumy, active combat confirmed; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF defensive preparations in Sumy, RUF KAB strikes in Sumy; LOW CONFIDENCE - Abrams destruction claim, unverified; HIGH CONFIDENCE - STERNENKO drone footage; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Starshe Eddy reporting and photos, intent is to confirm RUF presence; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Mykolaiv Vanok's report on UAF drone unit transport collection; HIGH CONFIDENCE - STERNENKO drone safety report; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Igor Artamonov's update on AD status; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Air Force of Ukraine KAB alerts). Оперативний ЗСУ shared a video showing FPV drone activity in Sumy Oblast over deceased RUF personnel, indicating ongoing UAF drone operations and confirmed RUF casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAVs in Sumy Oblast, moving southwest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for 1 UAV heading towards Sumy city from the north. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAV towards Sumy city cancelled. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports RUF advancing in Sumy Oblast using small groups to stretch enemy forces, citing Alaudinov. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). AV БогомаZ reports a RUF UAV was destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad reports on demining operations in Kursk Oblast, showing a sapper clearing areas, suggesting RUF presence and previous UAF activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kharkiv Oblast: UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Ozerne, Mala Vovcha of Kharkiv region. Clashes yesterday near Dvorichna, Hlyboke, Vovchanski Khutory, Krasne Pershe and Fyholivka (South Slobozhansky direction) and near Kindrashivka, Kruhlyakivka and towards Pischane, Petropavlivka (Kupyansk direction). MoD Russia published video of Grad MLRS strike near the border in Kharkiv region. Привид Хортиці (Ghost of Khortytsia) shared video of UAF drone operations targeting enemy positions and a boat in Slobozhanshchyna, demonstrating UAF counter-action capabilities. Colonelcassad shared video claiming destruction of an enemy UAV control point in Kharkiv Oblast (likely a UAF asset). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shared video of 3rd Separate Tank "Iron" Brigade destroying RUF forces, captioned "These are our heavens, this is our land!", and a new FPV drone video targeting an RUF UAZ vehicle ("bukhanka"), showing an explosion, fire, and personnel attempting to evade. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports on RUF airstrikes and clashes; HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF MLRS activity in Kharkiv; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF drone operations in Kharkiv; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim of UAV control point destruction; HIGH CONFIDENCE - ОТУ "Харків" videos). New KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in eastern Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z shared video claiming "Thunder" (RUF drone unit) burning enemy equipment near Kupyansk. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). New alert for several groups of UAVs in eastern Kharkiv Oblast heading west. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAV in Kharkiv city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alerts for 6 UAVs from Bilhorod towards Kharkiv, and several groups from the north towards Kharkiv city. Explosions reported in Kharkiv city, striking a civilian enterprise. RUF launched at least 7 strikes on Kharkiv city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAVs in Kharkiv towards Dnipropetrovsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alerts for UAVs towards Kharkiv city cancelled. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF UAV strike reported to have hit a civilian enterprise in Kyivskyi district of Kharkiv. Another hit was recorded in Shevchenkivskyi district. Total of four Geran-2 UAVs struck a civilian enterprise in Kyivskyi district. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Kharkiv was attacked by seven Shahed-type drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 64-year-old man wounded in Kharkiv attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports RUF also struck Kupyansk overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports RUF also struck Kupyansk with KABs overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New video from Colonelcassad showing FPV drone strike on UAF pickup truck in Kupyansk vicinity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). Оперативний ЗСУ reports 7 Shahed UAVs struck Kyivskyi district in Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Novoselivka, Mala Tokmachka of Zaporizhzhia region. UAF Air Force reports activity of RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration is scaling up protection for Defense Forces by constructing new anti-drone tunnels for logistics routes. Air Force of Ukraine reports missile danger and KAB launches in Zaporizhzhia. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued an alert for ballistic missile threat from the southern direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared video of 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade operators downing a Russian "Orlan-30" reconnaissance UAV near Zaporizhzhia with an FPV drone. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration) reports RUF conducted an airstrike on one of the settlements in Polohy district. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also shared photos of housing restoration in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shared photos of graduation ceremonies at Komyshuvakha Gymnasium "Dzherelo", indicating civilian life continues despite war. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shared a photo postcard titled "Melitopol is Ukraine," indicating continued focus on occupied territories. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posted a photo with the caption "Zaporozhye direction," implying continued RUF focus or operations in this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official reports on AD alerts; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF counter-UAV action and supporting video; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Zaporizhzhia OMA on airstrike; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Zaporizhzhia OMA on housing restoration; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Zaporizhzhia OMA on graduation ceremony; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Zaporizhzhia OMA on Melitopol; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo). Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition claimed a British mercenary was killed near Mali Shcherbaky during a UAF attempt to recapture the area, with the mercenary's mother blaming Ukrainian commanders for a "suicidal mission." (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, requires verification). New KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash na Donbasse reports part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast without power due to UAF strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAV in Zaporizhzhia Oblast heading towards Dnipropetrovsk (Synelnykivskyi district). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAV from the south heading towards Zaporizhzhia city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New fast target on Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia, with damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Two missiles impacted Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports two people wounded in Zaporizhzhia strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Air raid alert cancelled in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an air raid alert. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ reports 4 strikes on Zaporizhzhia, 2 wounded, with video evidence of damaged civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports 9 private homes damaged by missile strikes on Zaporizhzhia, with associated photos showing damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares video of a private house impacted by an explosion, likely in Zaporizhzhia based on context of previous messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo shared multiple photo messages with map overlays for the Zaporizhzhia Front, showing claimed RUF advances and active combat zones, as part of their "Фронтовая сводка на утро 25.06.2025" (Frontline summary for morning 25.06.2025). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF map claims, unverified). Два майора published a video of a tactical drone strike in Zaporizhzhia region, showing a visible explosion within a wooded area, likely targeting UAF positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA).
Kherson Oblast: UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 6 Russian army assaults in the Kherson direction. "Два майора" shared video of FPV drone and UAV-KT combat work by 127th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade in Kherson direction, showing a struck truck and artillery piece. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reported that RUF began to disconnect mobile internet in the occupied part of Kherson Oblast, citing residents. Николаевский Ванёк reports UAF "tigers" captured another prisoner on the left bank of Kherson Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (Paratrooper's Diary) shared a photo/map of the "Kherson direction," likely indicating ongoing RUF interest or operations in the area. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shared a video claiming the "Espanyola" special forces marine detachment thwarted UAF landing plans on Crimea, showing a burning building. MoD Russia released video showing signalmen of the 49th Army, Dnepr Group of Forces, in Kherson region, indicating RUF continues to emphasize C2 and combat operations in this sector. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА also shared video of an FPV drone, possibly from the Kherson direction, showing a vehicle moving in low-light, implying continued drone operations. ТАСС reports Saldo (RUF-appointed governor) states AFU conducting massive attack by aircraft-type UAVs on Kherson Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official report; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF combat footage, unverified BDA by UAF; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF reporting on RUF internet shutdown; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF capture of prisoner; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo/map of Kherson direction, indicating continued RUF focus; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА video, unverified BDA, likely propaganda; HIGH CONFIDENCE - MoD Russia video on Kherson; HIGH CONFIDENCE - АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА new video; HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS report on Kherson UAV attack). Операция Z shared video captioned "The enemy is attacking Kazan and Kherson region," with visuals that appear to be a title card, providing no direct battle damage assessment, but indicating RUF acknowledgement of attacks on Kherson region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF acknowledgement). Два майора is conducting a "collection for Kherson direction" likely for material support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for 3 UAVs flying past Oleksandrivka, towards Pravdyne/Posad-Pokrovske. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAVs in southern Mykolaiv Oblast heading northeast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Odesa Oblast: STERNENKO reports that Vasya Lomachenko is upset due to the Russian strike on a lyceum in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF reporting on strike). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports that three employees were killed in the strike on the lyceum in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, confirming civilian casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also named the three killed employees in the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi strike, further confirming civilian casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued new alert for "Several groups of UAVs in the Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast," indicating active aerial threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New report of 14 UAVs in the Black Sea, and two of them north of Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, heading towards Odesa Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports 2 UAVs were shot down near Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAVs heading towards Odesa Oblast (Sarata). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAVs from Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast (Vylkove). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAVs from Black Sea towards southern Odesa Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for 6 UAVs from Black Sea towards Primorske/Tatarbunary, Odesa Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports 9 UAVs heading to Vylkove. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAVs in Vylkove. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports that out of 16 UAVs towards Vylkove, 7 remain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports explosions in Vylkove. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RUF forces struck a UAF military unit in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA).
Other Axes (UAF General Staff Reports):
RF Territory (Various Regions): ASTRA and RUF MoD via TASS claimed Russian air defense forces destroyed 34 Ukrainian UAVs over various regions of Russia, with TASS specifically claiming 18 UAVs shot down in three hours. TASS later updated this, claiming 22 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over various regions of Russia in 3.5 hours (also reported by ASTRA). Igor Artamonov (Governor, Lipetsk Oblast) reports a UAV threat in Usmansky and Dobrinsky districts, now "cancelled." A new "yellow" air danger level was announced for all of Lipetsk Oblast at 04:01:46Z JUN 25. Оперативний ЗСУ shared photos claiming 8 RUF oil depots after drone attacks by UAV forces. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows video of a RUF soldier killed by UAF drone. РБК-Україна reports RUF has dropped almost 100 bombs on its own and occupied territories since the beginning of the year. STERNENKO shared video of "Novem Group" destroying RUF logistics in Kursk Oblast, showing a vehicle (likely an ATV) hit by a drone with subsequent explosions and fire. ТАСС reports "Aeroflot" is adjusting flight schedules to Kazan, Samara, and Saratov due to restrictions, indicating possible security concerns or air traffic control issues in these regions. ASTRA confirms "Aeroflot" flight adjustments, further solidifying this information. AV БогомаZ (Governor, Bryansk Oblast) reports "Over the territory of Bryansk Oblast, air defense forces of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation detected and destroyed an aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicle." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). AV БогомаZ (Governor of Bryansk Oblast) posted photos about road network development in Bryansk Oblast, including discussions on road safety, which may be relevant to logistics given its proximity to the border. Colonelcassad reports that Putin posthumously awarded the Order of Courage to Pavel Mishin, a train driver killed in a bridge collapse in Bryansk Oblast, indicating a recent incident potentially related to UAF activity or internal sabotage that RUF attributes to 'selfless' actions.** ASTRA reports 8 UAVs shot down in Ulyanovsk Oblast with internet restricted in the region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims, RUF internal reporting on UAV threats; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF claims on oil depot strikes; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF combat footage; HIGH CONFIDENCE - RBC-Ukraine report on RUF dropping bombs on own territory; HIGH CONFIDENCE - STERNENKO video of strike on RUF logistics in Kursk; HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS/ASTRA reports on Aeroflot flight adjustments; HIGH CONFIDENCE - AV БогомаZ post on road development; HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS updated UAV claims; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Igor Artamonov's update; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Colonelcassad report on Bryansk incident; HIGH CONFIDENCE - ASTRA on Ulyanovsk UAVs). Рыбарь shares video message captioned "Organization and conduct of an ambush on enemy transport." (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Rybar video, unverified BDA). ASTRA reported on a new initiative in St. Petersburg where "participants of the war with Ukraine will instill 'traditional values' in schoolchildren," indicating further militarization of Russian society. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kotsnews claimed "Kyiv continues to hold 32 Kursky residents hostage." (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified). Новости Москвы (News of Moscow) shared videos of heavy rain and strong winds in Moscow, indicating severe weather conditions that could impact air operations or ground movement if sustained. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (Military Correspondents of Russian Spring) posted video of aftermath of an alleged enemy attempt to destroy "Espanyola" marine detachment. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified). STERNENKO shared photos captioned "Interesting fact 1," but image analysis could not identify military context. (NO MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE). Alex Parker Returns shared video of Ukrainian flag in Kryvyi Rih, depicting it as a "sign" related to Zelenskyy. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, symbolic). Alex Parker Returns and TASS reported on Republican Congressman Buddy Carter nominating Trump for Nobel Peace Prize for Israel-Iran ceasefire. Alex Parker Returns explicitly claimed "Iran announced victory over Israel." TASS also reported on another Congressman, Green, moving for Trump's impeachment for strikes on Iran, indicating continued rapid IO on Israel-Iran. ТАСС now reports that Israeli army command has cancelled all restrictions for the population, indicating a de-escalation of the Israel-Iran situation, further confirming the rapid shift in narrative. ASTRA also reports Ben Gurion Airport returning to full operation. Военкор Котенок also reports Iran preparing to open airspace and Israeli airports returning to normal, reinforcing the de-escalation. ТАСС reports that Peseshkian, in an address to the Iranian people, stated Israel failed to achieve its goals and paid "a terrible price" for aggression against Iran, presenting a new Iranian victory narrative. Colonelcassad reports Iran will continue uranium enrichment despite damages, stating it's a red line. ТАСС reported on the US House of Representatives rejecting the impeachment procedure against Trump, indicating the shifting political narrative. ASTRA reports Iran denied opening its airspace, conflicting with previous reports, indicating further fluidity in the IO on the Israel-Iran conflict. Colonelcassad shared new video of a large public gathering in Tehran celebrating "victory" over Israel, and explicitly stated that the allegedly killed Quds Force commander, Ismail Qaani, is alive and present, demonstrating RUF's efforts to refute counter-IO. Alex Parker Returns shared similar video, stating Khamenei was present and undetected by Mossad. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO on Middle East/Trump; HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS report on Israeli Army Chief of Staff, contradicting RUF IO; HIGH CONFIDENCE - RBC-Ukraine critical analysis of Middle East events; HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS/ASTRA/Voenkor Kotenok on de-escalation in Israel; HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS on Iranian "victory" narrative; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Colonelcassad on Iran's nuclear program; HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS on Trump impeachment rejection; HIGH CONFIDENCE - ASTRA on Iran airspace denial; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Colonelcassad/Alex Parker Returns new videos on Iran celebrations). ASTRA reported on Russian court deeming "Allatra" movement "extremist." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reported on legal protocols against Apple and Kinopoisk for "LGBT propaganda." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Fighterbomber posted a photo/video titled "tactical analysis," but the content was an empty caption, thus no military significance. (NO MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reported on a Russian Yamal LNG tanker filled with gas in Rotterdam. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы reports Russia has launched wedding tours to North Korea for 350,000 rubles, reflecting an unusual internal news item. Новости Москвы also reports the State Duma is developing a list of permitted names for children. (LOW MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal news). НгП раZVедка shared videos of Donald Trump with a satirical caption about Iran and Israel, indicating continued RUF IO on US politics and global events. Colonelcassad shared multiple videos of a large public gathering in Tehran, supporting "Operation Basharat Fath" and thanking armed forces, implying Iranian "victory" and public support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also shared video of celebrations in Iran, with a clown emoji, indicating Ukrainian skepticism of the "victory" claims. Операция Z also shared multiple videos of large public gatherings in Tehran celebrating "victory over Israel," reinforcing the RUF IO narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF/Ukrainian IO on Iran). TASS reports Lavrov arrived in Turkmenistan, indicating continued Russian diplomatic activity in Central Asia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports arrest of "Rostovvodokanal" director in Rostov region, indicating RUF internal corruption/crackdown. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports Ukrainian "Naftogaz" sent "Gazprom" official demand for $1.37bn payment, indicating ongoing legal/economic disputes. Alex Parker Returns amplified this, with derogatory language against Ukrainians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Филолог в засаде reports a meeting on military volunteerism in Russia, and shares video of a female volunteer discussing problems, indicating challenges in RUF volunteer support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kotsnews claimed "world media shifted from Ukraine to the Middle East, indicating RUF IO success in diversion." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared video of a Russian DRG ambush on a vehicle with Ukrainian servicemen, claiming success, indicating continued RUF special operations and IO efforts. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on an alleged mobilized Russian soldier describing mistreatment, torture, and being ordered to abandon wounded, raising serious concerns about RUF internal discipline and human rights. ASTRA reports on a streamer who fabricated a case for a negative review being charged with "justifying Nazism," indicating continued RUF crackdown on perceived dissent or "extremism." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports on tariffs in Domodedovo airport being planned before ownership change, indicating normal administrative activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора mentions a "Military reform 2026. Cycle of the Children of Arbat," which may refer to future military reforms. (LOW CONFIDENCE - unclear meaning). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shared a video of three individuals in military gear with a Serbian-Russian flag, requesting night/day reconnaissance drones and communication means for a "storm airborne regiment," implying foreign fighters or groups with strong pro-Russian affiliation and specific equipment needs. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports a UAV threat declared in Saratov Oblast, indicating continued UAF deep strike activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports four UAVs destroyed over Tatarstan, confirming UAF deep strike activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Игорь Артамонов (Governor, Lipetsk Oblast) reports "yellow threat level cancelled," indicating a de-escalation of a previous threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Europe plans to persuade Trump to sell weapons to Ukraine, indicating continued diplomatic efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Lukashenko and Putin discussed Ukraine and Middle East, indicating high-level coordination. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Стрелков Игорь Иванович expresses concern about the "Iranian crisis" and Russia's lack of formal support for Iran, indicating dissent within the hardline pro-war community regarding RUF foreign policy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports restrictions on Penza airport extended until 00:00 MSK 25 June, indicating continued disruption due to UAV threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports PACE called on Russia to create a mechanism for permanent exchange of prisoners with Ukraine, highlighting international pressure on RUF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns reported Ukrainian language being excluded from school programs in "new regions" and Crimea, implying a new form of cultural suppression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports US intelligence believes US strikes on Iran did not destroy core components of Iran's nuclear program. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad commented on IAEA's urgent request to visit sites struck by US/Israel in Iran, advising against it to maintain the narrative of destruction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reported on military enlistment offices in Saransk allegedly using threats and alcohol to induce alcoholics and homeless individuals to sign contracts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO commented on "underperforming today's norm" for "rusoriz" (killing Russians), indicating UAF's operational tempo and dark humor. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posted about "paratrooper brotherhood, family," likely a morale post. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports an explosion at "Atlant AERO" factory in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, Russia, after an alleged "arrival." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares video of aftermath of strikes on "Radiozavod" in Kyiv, showing damaged vehicles and ongoing fires, attempting to verify RUF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports successful strike on Bolkhov Semiconductor Device Plant (BZNP) on May 21, with three hits on semiconductor production buildings and one on a mechanical shop. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Военкор Котенок reports White House dissatisfaction with US media publications stating that strikes on June 22 did not destroy Iran's nuclear program, indicating US counter-IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь shares video message with no decipherable caption (AI limitations). (NO MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE). Colonelcassad shared multiple photos of a Chinese 80-ton HTF5980 mobile ICBM launcher "Dongfeng-41" with a range of up to 15,000 km, in new "wood texture" camouflage, indicating Chinese strategic military developments. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Chinese military; NO DIRECT MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE for Ukraine, but relevant for global strategic context). ТАСС reports Nebenzya stating US/Israel actions against Iran's nuclear facilities are a dangerous infringement on NPT authority and Iran's right to peaceful nuclear energy, indicating RUF support for Iran. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). «Зона СВО» shares photos of "Akhmat" special forces commander, glorifying him. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of Ukrainian F-16 shooting down a Shahed, demonstrating UAF air defense capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports "Israel threatened Iran over the possibility of disrupting the ceasefire regime" at 00:28:01Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports "Israel threatened Iran over the possibility of disrupting the ceasefire regime" at 00:28:01Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports "The conflict in Ukraine could have ended in 12 days, 'just like Israel's aggression against Iran,' if Trump was US President instead of Biden at that time," citing investor David Sachs, to which the head of RFPI Dmitriev agreed at 00:11:01Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports "Trump intends to meet with Zelensky on June 25 at the NATO summit in The Hague, according to the American newspaper Politico" at 00:24:06Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports "anti-Ukrainian hysteria" in Hungarian MFA related to a poll on Ukraine's EU membership, indicating diplomatic tensions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Russia proposed updated UN Security Council resolution for sustainable ceasefire in Middle East. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы reports registration open for Night Cycling Festival in Moscow, reflecting normal civilian life in Russia. (NO MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE). «Зона СВО» shares video of Zelenskyy's speech, attempting to mock him or portray him negatively. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared video of a large explosion in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, Russia, at "Atlant AERO" factory, confirming a significant event in RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports explosion at "Atlant AERO" factory in Taganrog after an alleged "arrival." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports restrictions on receiving/releasing aircraft at Saratov airport lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports: In the port of Azov, Rostov region, the roof of a grain warehouse was damaged by UAV debris, according to Slyusar. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports: An air attack is being repelled in Rostov region. UAVs were shot down in Taganrog, Azov, and Rodionovo-Nesvetay district, Slyusar said. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports that UAVs attacked 5 regions of RF and Crimea, with a football stadium damaged in Taganrog. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z reports "President awarded the title of Hero of Russia to a SVO fighter from South Ossetia Radislav Khugaev" at 00:32:27Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports "AFU are 'crumbling' in areas of Russian fighter advances, said Apti Alaudinov, commander of the Akhmat special forces of the Russian Ministry of Defense" at 00:33:18Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared a photo collection from "Ugolok_Sitha" titled "Z - in the zone of the Special Military Operation" at 00:33:01Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports foreign mercenaries in AFU are not as active as thought, quoting Akhmat commander Apti Alaudinov. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Trump refused to discuss Canada ambitions, citing Carney. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Ministry of Defense shot down 18 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of an explosion in Azov, Rostov Oblast, claiming a strike on an oil refinery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports 18 UAVs destroyed over Russia overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shared a video showing FPV drone footage, claiming it's the "night work of attack UAVs of the special forces battalion of the 51st Guards Army of the Southern Military District," intercepting heavy enemy drones before they reach Russian positions, indicating RUF counter-UAV capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). TASS reports that OAK delivered a new batch of Su-35S aircraft to the Russian Ministry of Defense as part of the state defense order, indicating continued RUF military production. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports that searches are being conducted at the State Secretary of Dagestan, Magomed-Sultan Magomedov, and his relatives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports two Moldovan intelligence agents were arrested in Moscow by the FSB. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора also confirms the arrest of two Moldovan citizens. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z reports that US intelligence undermined Trump's "triumph" at the NATO summit, citing NYT, which is an RUF IO narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares a photo of military personnel, captioned "Tactical analysis of the provided image," indicating ongoing assessment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports temporary restrictions were imposed at Saratov airport by Rosaviatsiya. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ shares a photo of a Ukrainian soldier with a flag, captioned about daily mourning at 9:00 AM. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) shared photos about commemorating fallen Kyiv defenders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video appealing for donations for "Paratroopers," specifically mentioning Mavic 3T and Mavic 3 Pro drones, and night/day reconnaissance, for a "volunteer unit, Storm Airborne Regiment," along with comms. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Военкор Котенок shares a photo collage with military imagery for their informational publication, indicating continued IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна shares a photo message about "Kremlin money for AD for Ukraine," discussing a new UK approach. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Poltava Oblast: New alert for UAV towards Poltava city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared video claiming "Ukraine Against" continues to destroy railway infrastructure in Poltava Oblast. The video contains Ukrainian language elements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, UAF activity). New alerts for 2 UAVs heading to/through Kremenchuk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Pavlohrad Oblast (Dnipropetrovsk region): New alert for UAV from the east towards Pavlohrad city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Mykolaiv Oblast: New alert for UAVs in southern Mykolaiv Oblast heading northeast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAV from Mykolaiv Oblast to Kirovohrad Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports all "moped" (UAVs) that were launched were destroyed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RF Territory (General): Restrictions lifted in airports of Samara, Penza, Ulyanovsk, Cheboksary. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF claims Iran TV reported WhatsApp will not be unblocked after the war, citing espionage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). RUF claims Iran deporting Afghans, citing them as Israeli recruits. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). BRICS nations expressed deep concern over US/Israel strikes on Iran, calling them a violation of international law. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). BRICS nations stressed need for nuclear-weapon-free zone in Middle East. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports some Israeli officials believe Iran retained small uranium enrichment sites. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared video of a civilian claiming Ukrainian shelling/drone attacks in Nikolsky, Kursk region, resulting in 7 KIA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). ТАСС reports restrictions lifted in Kazan and Nizhnekamsk airports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA shares a series of photos and videos regarding UAV attacks on 5 regions of RF and Crimea, including damage to a football stadium in Taganrog, and an explosion in Rostov region, and a document about a company's legal registration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAV attacks confirmed, specific damage to stadium confirmed; LOW CONFIDENCE - document provides no military significance). Police of Khabarovsk Krai shared photo messages with text about complex, multi-stage fraud schemes starting with data analysis, possibly as public safety announcements. (LOW MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal news). TASS reports an uncompleted Ukrainian army corps intended for Kharkiv direction was not fully manned, citing security forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UAF General Staff) reports approximate RUF combat losses from 24.02.22 to 25.06.25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shared an infographic detailing approximate RUF combat losses from 24.02.22 to 25.06.25, mirroring the General Staff's reporting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ shares a US intelligence assessment via CNN, stating strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear facilities and only delayed the program by a few months. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports IAEA is unaware of the whereabouts of 400 kg of enriched uranium after US strikes on Iran. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z posted a video requesting thermal imagers for Russian soldiers, indicating continued logistical needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares a video of poor living conditions in Yakutia, Russia, highlighting internal social issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports on police action against "Union of Maoists" activists in Yekaterinburg. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that scammers are offering "jobs" to extort money, as reported by VTB (Russian bank), indicating a domestic concern. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the IAEA stated they do not know where 400 kg of enriched uranium disappeared after US strikes on Iran. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing a successful drone strike on Russian personnel at night, who were attempting to transport ammunition in "anti-drone cloaks." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF BDA, confirmed RUF casualties). РБК-Україна reports that Europe is losing the space race and how Ukraine can help them catch up to Elon Musk, indicating a non-military, but potentially strategic, and IO-related news item. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
International Diplomatic Developments: Zelenskiy / Official shared photos of a group of political leaders and dignitaries, captioned "Together we will definitely be able to protect life and achieve true security and peace," indicating continued high-level diplomatic engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports USA is confident in possibility of comprehensive peace agreement with Iran and will not allow Tehran to enrich uranium under a possible nuclear deal. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared photos mocking a "funny fake about Yanukovych hanging out in Ibiza," indicating continued RUF IO against former Ukrainian leadership or external influence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). TASS reports that the final statement of the NATO summit does not contain words about the irreversibility of Ukraine's path to the alliance, which was in last year's statement, citing Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó. This indicates a potential shift in NATO's messaging or a point of contention within the alliance, possibly exploited by RUF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS report; LOW CONFIDENCE - interpretation of NATO's actual stance). Операция Z amplifies Szijjártó's statement, with a caption suggesting Ukraine should not count on EU accession. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). TASS reports a US intelligence community data leak could discredit Trump and his Middle East policy, citing Senator Alexey Pushkov. This suggests RUF is already seeking to leverage potential US political vulnerabilities in their IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). TASS reports Zelenskyy was placed far from Trump for photos at the NATO summit, according to C-SPAN. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). РБК-Україна reports Kallas stating Ukraine is a priority for Europe and Europe can learn from Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Russia proposed updated UN Security Council resolution for sustainable ceasefire in Middle East. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы reports registration open for Night Cycling Festival in Moscow, reflecting normal civilian life in Russia. (NO MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE). «Зона СВО» shares video of Zelenskyy's speech, attempting to mock him or portray him negatively. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared video of a large explosion in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, Russia, at "Atlant AERO" factory, confirming a significant event in RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports explosion at "Atlant AERO" factory in Taganrog after an alleged "arrival." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports restrictions on receiving/releasing aircraft at Saratov airport lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports: In the port of Azov, Rostov region, the roof of a grain warehouse was damaged by UAV debris, according to Slyusar. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports: An air attack is being repelled in Rostov region. UAVs were shot down in Taganrog, Azov, and Rodionovo-Nesvetay district, Slyusar said. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports that UAVs attacked 5 regions of RF and Crimea, with a football stadium damaged in Taganrog. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z reports "President awarded the title of Hero of Russia to a SVO fighter from South Ossetia Radislav Khugaev" at 00:32:27Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports "AFU are 'crumbling' in areas of Russian fighter advances, said Apti Alaudinov, commander of the Akhmat special forces of the Russian Ministry of Defense" at 00:33:18Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared a photo collection from "Ugolok_Sitha" titled "Z - in the zone of the Special Military Operation" at 00:33:01Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports foreign mercenaries in AFU are not as active as thought, quoting Akhmat commander Apti Alaudinov. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Trump refused to discuss Canada ambitions, citing Carney. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Ministry of Defense shot down 18 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of an explosion in Azov, Rostov Oblast, claiming a strike on an oil refinery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports 18 UAVs destroyed over Russia overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports an article "Will the war end in 2025? Russia is developing a summer offensive, but the US is not in a hurry to increase military aid." This indicates internal Ukrainian assessment of international support dynamics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z shared a video with the caption "US will not allow Iran to enrich uranium even in the case of a nuclear deal," featuring an expert Steve Witkoff, indicating continued RUF IO on US-Iran relations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z reports that US intelligence undermined Trump's "triumph" at the NATO summit, citing NYT. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports the FSB detained two Moldovan intelligence agents in Moscow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора also confirms the arrest of two Moldovan citizens by the FSB. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports on a new UK approach to supporting UAF, by using "Kremlin money" for air defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:
Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF):
Ground Forces: UAF maintains active defensive operations across multiple axes, repelling assaults in Sumy/Kursk, Kherson, and engaging in clashes in Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka directions. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration is actively constructing anti-drone tunnels to protect logistics. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the 3rd Assault Brigade is pushing occupiers out near Ridkodub (Lyman direction). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provided video evidence of the 3rd Assault Brigade's successful operations near Ridkodub. Николаевский Ванёк also posted video of the 3rd Assault Brigade "knockings out out occupiers" near Ridkodub. РБК-Україна also shared video of the 3rd Assault Brigade counterattacking in the east, destroying an RUF platoon. Привид Хортиці (Ghost of Khortytsia) showcases UAF drone operations in Slobozhanshchyna (Kharkiv/Sumy), destroying enemy positions and a boat. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of UAF Special Operations Forces destroying a Russian assault group on the Pokrovsk direction, including drone footage of the combat. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared video of 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade operators downing a Russian "Orlan-30" reconnaissance UAV near Zaporizhzhia with an FPV drone, demonstrating effective counter-UAV capabilities. STERNENKO shared video of "Wings to Hell" (UAF drone unit) destroying an RUF soldier in Sumy Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ also shared video of 24th Separate Assault Battalion "Aidar" thanking supporters for a vehicle, indicating continued material support for UAF units. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared video of a UAV destroying a RUF Grad MLRS on Lyman direction. Николаевский Ванёк reports UAF "tigers" captured a prisoner on the left bank of Kherson Oblast. STERNENKO also provided video of "Novem Group" destroying RUF logistics in Kursk Oblast, demonstrating UAF deep strike capabilities into RF territory. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shared photos related to military medics and their importance, indicating continued focus on combat casualty care. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shared a video featuring Ukrainian military personnel operating a "Shark" reconnaissance UAV, highlighting their use of advanced systems for intelligence gathering and target acquisition. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shared video of 3rd Separate Tank "Iron" Brigade destroying RUF forces, and a new FPV drone video targeting an RUF UAZ vehicle ("bukhanka"). ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 shared video of "BLACK SKY" unit of 3rd Separate Presidential Brigade "Spartan" striking RUF forces in western outskirts of Novoserhiivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ's latest video from Sumy Oblast showing FPV drone activity over deceased RUF personnel confirms UAF's continued engagement and effectiveness in this sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Staff provided an operational update for 22:00 24.06.2025, detailing ongoing clashes and defensive operations across various axes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO's comment about "underperforming today's norm for rusoriz" indicates continued UAF offensive pressure and high morale, even if tactical gains are not meeting internal targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shared a photo of a Ukrainian soldier in camouflage with a weapon and what appears to be a military vehicle, captioned with sarcastic appreciation for the RUF soldier's "shroud," indicating UAF operations leading to RUF casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Воин DV's video shows humanitarian aid or rescue operations in Bahatyr, indicating UAF's response to civilian needs in contested areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Staff reports at 06:00 25.06.2025 detailing ongoing clashes and enemy actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shared an infographic detailing approximate RUF combat losses from 24.02.22 to 25.06.25, confirming UAF's ongoing assessment of RUF attrition. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Staff reports at 08:00 25.06.2025 detailing continued Russian invasion efforts across multiple directions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 46th Separate Airmobile Podilska Brigade DSHV AFU shares photos from a "star intensive" training session, indicating ongoing training and readiness for UAF airborne units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video appealing for help for UAF soldiers, suggesting equipment needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shared a video titled "Український МІ-24 збиває рашистські шахеди" (Ukrainian Mi-24 shoots down rashist Shaheds), showing aerial footage of an aircraft engaging a target, with countermeasures or a fire trail, implying successful UAF air defense operations against UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares a photo of military personnel, indicating active operations or training. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ shares a photo of a Ukrainian soldier with a flag, for daily commemoration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) shares photos about commemorating fallen Kyiv defenders, indicating ongoing support for personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Air Defense (AD): UAF Air Force continues to provide real-time warnings of RUF missile and KAB threats (Sumy, Donetsk Oblast, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Pavlohrad, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv), including reports of activity of enemy tactical aviation on the southeastern direction. UAF AD is engaged in intercepting RUF attacks, but the volume of RUF strikes continues to cause significant civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, particularly from ballistic missiles (Dnipro, Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi). UAF Air Force reports active RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and tactical aviation activity on the northeast direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reported 28,743 Shahed drones used by Russia since the full-scale invasion, with 2,736 in June alone, as stated by Zelenskyy, highlighting the scale of the AD challenge. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued a ballistic missile threat alert from the southern direction, and a new missile threat for Sumy Oblast, but then issued a "threat cancelled" alert. A new KAB launch alert for Sumy Oblast was issued at 00:12:24Z JUN 25. РБК-Україна reports an expert called the strike a "targeted attack or psychological terror," aimed at hitting moving objects like trains, making them difficult to intercept. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued an alert for "Several groups of UAVs in the Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast," indicating ongoing AD posture for aerial threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAVs in Sumy Oblast, moving southwest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAVs heading towards Odesa Oblast (Ovidipol/Chernomorsk, with 14 drones in the Black Sea, and 2 north of Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports 2 UAVs were shot down near Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast heading towards Dnipropetrovsk (Synelnykivskyi district), and UAVs in Odesa Oblast (Sarata). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video shows Ukrainian F-16 shooting down a Shahed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for several groups of UAVs in eastern Kharkiv Oblast heading west. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAV towards Poltava city and Pavlohrad city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports on general "moped" (UAV) activity, indicating ongoing air defense concerns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAV from the south heading towards Zaporizhzhia city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Russia is attacking Ukraine with drones from different directions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAV in Kharkiv city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New fast target on Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for 16 UAVs heading towards Dobropillia/Druzhkivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for 6 UAVs from Black Sea towards Primorske/Tatarbunary, Odesa Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports 9 UAVs on Vylkove. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAVs in Vylkove. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports 7 UAVs remaining out of 16 towards Vylkove. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alerts for UAVs towards Kharkiv city from Bilhorod and from the north, and an explosion in Kharkiv city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alerts for UAVs towards Sumy city from the north. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alerts for UAVs in southern Mykolaiv Oblast heading northeast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAV from Mykolaiv Oblast to Kirovohrad Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports all "moped" (UAVs) that were launched were destroyed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAV from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to Poltava Oblast, and 2 UAVs heading to/through Kremenchuk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports air raid alert cancelled. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ reports 7 Shahed UAVs struck Kyivskyi district in Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shared a video showing a Ukrainian Mi-24 engaging Russian Shaheds, indicating continued use of combat helicopters for air defense and successful intercepts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy tactical aviation activity in the northeast direction, likely indicating KAB launches. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Deep Strike Capability: UAF continues to conduct drone strikes deep into RF territory, as evidenced by RUF claims of intercepting 34 UAVs and UAF claims of hitting 8 oil depots. TASS claims 22 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over various regions of Russia in 3.5 hours, also reported by ASTRA. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows UAF drone operations resulting in RUF KIA. РБК-Україна reports RUF has dropped almost 100 bombs on its own and occupied territories since the beginning of the year, likely due to technical failures/friendly fire or a lack of precision, which benefits UAF operations. STERNENKO's video of "Novem Group" destroying RUF logistics in Kursk Oblast further demonstrates UAF's effective cross-border deep strike capability. STERNENKO's report on "drone safety" in multiple RF oblasts further highlights UAF's continued deep strike capability. ASTRA reports 8 UAVs shot down in Ulyanovsk Oblast. TASS reports a UAV threat declared in Saratov Oblast, and four UAVs destroyed over Tatarstan, further confirming UAF deep strike capabilities into RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New air raid siren in Saratov and Engels, likely due to UAF UAV activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports successful strike on Bolkhov Semiconductor Device Plant (BZNP) on May 21. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports explosion at "Atlant AERO" factory in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports explosion at "Atlant AERO" factory in Taganrog after an alleged "arrival." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports restrictions on receiving/releasing aircraft at Saratov airport lifted, likely after UAF UAV activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports UAV debris damaged roof of a stadium and a grain warehouse in Rostov Oblast; UAVs shot down in Taganrog, Azov, and Rodionovo-Nesvetay district, confirming UAF deep strike activity in Rostov Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports UAVs attacked 5 regions of RF and Crimea, with a football stadium damaged in Taganrog. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared video claiming "Ukraine Against" continues to destroy railway infrastructure in Poltava Oblast. This is presented as an IO piece by RUF, implying UAF-affiliated sabotage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Ministry of Defense shot down 18 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of an explosion in Azov, Rostov Oblast, claiming a strike on an oil refinery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's video showing a drone strike on Russian personnel at night, confirming UAF deep strike capability and effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Information Operations (IO): Ukrainian channels (РБК-Україна, Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration, Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Zelenskiy / Official, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Олександр Вілкул, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація)) continue to provide immediate assessments and photographic/video evidence of RUF attacks and their consequences, highlighting civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure (Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa), including damages to a passenger train in Dnipro, with updated casualty counts for Dnipro (now 18 KIA, 279 wounded). Zelenskiy / Official also shared video and photos of his address to the Senate and House of Representatives of the Netherlands parliament, stating "the main target of Russian attacks is life itself," and warning that "Russia is planning hostile and potentially destructive operations on NATO territory," demonstrating high-level diplomatic engagement and warning. Zelenskiy / Official explicitly stated "For Putin, there is a rule 'Do not kill.' There is a rule 'Do not act like a non-human with people.' There is a rule 'Do not burn cities and villages.' There is also a rule 'Do not justify or sponsor terror.' There is a rule 'Do not steal children.' And if you violate such rules, there must be responsibility," directly addressing Putin. Zelenskiy / Official also highlighted the scale of Shahed attacks (28,743 since full-scale invasion, 2,736 in June), emphasizing the need for partner support. Zelenskiy / Official stated "Russia is stronger than any of us individually, but it is weaker than all of us together," emphasizing unity and a strategy to limit RUF capabilities. КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація) and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also shared the same photos of Zelenskyy's address, indicating a coordinated IO message emphasizing NATO and EU unity. «Зона СВО» (SVO Zone) and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reported on Zelenskyy's address to the Dutch House of Representatives, where "Зона СВО" characterized his speech as "threatening Putin." Олександр Вілкул shared photos of the "LEGENDARY 3rd SEPARATE ASSAULT BRIGADE," indicating UAF IO highlighting specific effective units. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared video of Zelenskyy disembarking from an aircraft, likely related to his diplomatic engagements. Оперативний ЗСУ shared photos of Zelenskyy discussing expanding air fleet with Mirages and co-production of interceptor drones with Macron, indicating strategic IO on advanced military capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна also reported on the potential meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy during the NATO summit. РБК-Україна reports Trump intends to meet Zelenskyy on June 25 at the NATO summit in The Hague at 00:24:06Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reported on Ukraine's military-industrial complex potential of over $35 billion, but highlighted underfunding and the need for partial arms export, indicating a focus on long-term self-sufficiency. STERNENKO shared photos/posts on "interesting fact 1" and Trump's Nobel Peace Prize nomination, reflecting UAF monitoring of RUF IO. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shared photos of housing restoration in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, signaling resilience and rebuilding efforts, as well as a graduation ceremony at a local gymnasium. Олександр Вілкул's briefing on the day's results from Kryvyi Rih indicates continued local leadership in managing military and civilian efforts. РБК-Україна reports on "special operation to evacuate citizens from Iran," demonstrating Ukraine's capability to conduct complex diplomatic/logistical operations in potentially hostile environments. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on a "critically important microelectronic enterprise" in Russia stopping work, which Ukraine highlights as a positive impact on RUF military production. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS mocked the Iranian "victory" celebrations with a clown emoji, indicating Ukrainian skepticism of the "victory" claims. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shared a postcard titled "Melitopol is Ukraine," reflecting focus on occupied territories. ASTRA reports Ukrainian "Naftogaz" sent "Gazprom" official demand for $1.37bn payment, which is also a form of IO highlighting RUF's obligations. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posted a "short explanation why Russians started hitting civilians even more calmly," indicating UAF analysis and public messaging on RUF targeting. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (Stirlitz) shared a video requesting support for "warriors," indicating continued grassroots fundraising for UAF. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reported that Gen. Alexus Grinkevich, nominated for NATO command, believes Ukraine can win, indicating UAF IO leveraging external support/opinions. РБК-Україна quotes Sikorski (Poland) on Europe needing to be stronger than Russia, aligning with UAF messaging on collective strength. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Europe plans to persuade Trump to sell weapons to Ukraine, indicating UAF awareness of ongoing diplomatic efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports civilian casualties in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi strike, highlighting RUF war crimes and civilian impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS named the three killed employees in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, reinforcing RUF war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports PACE called on Russia to create a mechanism for permanent exchange of prisoners with Ukraine, highlighting UAF IO on prisoner exchanges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO's comment on "underperforming today's norm for rusoriz" signals UAF's continued resolve and active offensive operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ reports Trump agreed to meet Zelenskyy at NATO summit on June 25, citing Politico. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports successful strike on Bolkhov Semiconductor Device Plant (BZNP) on May 21, indicating UAF IO highlighting strikes on RUF military-industrial complex. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shared a photo of a Ukrainian soldier in camouflage with a weapon and what appears to be a military vehicle, captioned with sarcastic appreciation for the RUF soldier's "shroud," indicating UAF operations leading to RUF casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also shared photos of Zelenskyy meeting Macron, discussing increasing supply of Mirage fighters and joint production of interceptor drones to strengthen protection of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна provides video of Andriy Yermak discussing Zelenskyy-Trump meeting and diplomatic efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports on the RUF UAV attack and civilian enterprise strike in Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports on the explosion and damage in Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zelenskiy / Official shares new photos with captions "Together we will definitely be able to protect life and achieve true security and peace," reinforcing UAF diplomatic IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Kallas stating Ukraine is a priority for Europe and Europe can learn from Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports two people wounded in Zaporizhzhia, which is a new casualty report and further emphasizes civilian impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Orban's cynical statement about Zelenskyy's presence at the NATO summit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports EU's next sanctions should hit Putin's military budget, citing Sibyga. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Donald Trump's criticism of CNN and NYT over Iran nuclear strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Trump refused to discuss Canada ambitions, citing Carney. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports approximate RUF combat losses from 24.02.22 to 25.06.25, a regular form of UAF IO to demonstrate RUF attrition. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shared an infographic detailing approximate RUF combat losses from 24.02.22 to 25.06.25, demonstrating UAF's continued IO on RUF attrition. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ reports a preliminary US intelligence assessment via CNN that strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear facilities and only delayed the program by a few months, indicating UAF monitoring and amplification of external intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports IAEA is unaware of the whereabouts of 400 kg of enriched uranium after US strikes on Iran, indicating UAF monitoring of global nuclear issues for IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (General Staff) publishes its 08:00 operational update for June 25, which serves as a key UAF IO product for daily situational awareness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна published a photo message regarding falling prices for "borscht set" vegetables in June, which is an IO piece focused on domestic economic stability and the resilience of the civilian economy, despite the ongoing war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ also published a video message with the caption "#russiaHITScivilians" and the image of Dnipro mourning, strongly framing RUF actions as war crimes and supporting public sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO shared a photo message with the caption "Усім кави за мій рахунок!" (Coffee on me!), which is likely a morale-boosting or celebratory message among UAF supporters/personal, demonstrating a sense of camaraderie and resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна published a photo message titled "Will the war end in 2025? Russia is developing a summer offensive, but the US is not in a hurry to increase military aid," with an accompanying text highlighting concerns about the duration of the war due to US aid policies and Trump's promises. This is a critical IO piece reflecting internal Ukrainian strategic concerns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Staff for the Treatment of Prisoners of War) shared photo messages with the caption "PACE called on Russia to continue prisoner exchanges in 'all for all' format," indicating UAF's continued diplomatic pressure on humanitarian issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the IAEA stated they do not know where 400 kg of enriched uranium disappeared after US strikes on Iran, which is important for UAF IO on global nuclear security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports that Europe is losing the space race and how Ukraine can help them catch up to Elon Musk, indicating a non-military, but potentially strategic, and IO-related news item. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Russian Forces (RUF):
Ground Operations: RUF MoD claims "liberation" of Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast). RUF continues to claim "mopping up" Dyleyevka (Donetsk Oblast) and "complete liberation" of Petrovske/Hrekivka (Luhansk Oblast). "Операция Z" published video claiming "Dyleevka is under our control." Операция Z also posted new drone footage of a military operation, showing hits on an "enemy vehicle," "BMP," and "firing position/shelter," with text overlays indicating destruction of enemy forces, likely from an ongoing offensive operation. Kotsnews reports on RUF advance in Sumy. UAF General Staff confirms active clashes in these areas, indicating RUF intent to advance and consolidate. Persistent RUF assaults continue in Sumy/Kursk and Kherson directions. WarGonzo shows aerial footage of destroyed residential areas, claiming "Somalis demolish houses with AFU members inside," indicating continued destructive operations against UAF positions. MoD Russia shows Grad MLRS strike near the border in Kharkiv as part of "buffer zone" creation. MoD Russia also shared new video with caption "Continue destroying enemy defences," showing aerial reconnaissance footage of explosions and destructive events in forested and populated areas, indicating ongoing combat actions by "Sever, Yug, and Tsentr Group of Forces." Басурин (Basurin) claims RUF confidently advancing on Krasnolimansk direction with video of artillery. Рыбарь shares video message captioned "Organization and conduct of an ambush on enemy transport." Воин DV shared video of 29th Army "continuing to shell nearby forest belts in the Yalta area (likely Novopavlivka direction, Yalta settlement), claiming rapid advance due to concentration of firepower. Воин DV also shared video claiming their "Kaira" UAV squadron of the 39th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade destroyed a UAF T-72 tank (with a "Balkenkreuz" marking), an ATV, and a vehicle with personnel. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (Paratrooper's Diary) shared photos with the caption "Delivery to the front!", showing soldiers (likely RUF) loading supplies onto an ATV, suggesting forward logistical support in a combat zone. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also shared a video showing a group of soldiers in a temporary living space, highlighting rudimentary frontline conditions. Старше Эдды (Starshe Eddy) published an "Exclusive. First report from the 'buffer zone' in Sumy Oblast," including multiple photos depicting a rural road, damaged houses, and debris, aiming to validate RUF claims of presence. Два майора published video from Konstantinovka direction, Yablonovka, showing drone strikes on enemy positions and assault actions by RUF soldiers, including FABs. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posted a satellite/aerial map of "Kherson direction" with overlaid markings, suggesting an ongoing RUF tactical interest or operational planning in that area. Воин DV posted new video claiming an operator of the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade hit a vehicle and a group of "хлопчиков" (likely UAF soldiers) in Karl Marx (Mirne) area with a drone, showing a thermal image of a strike, suggesting continued precision targeting by RUF SOF. Colonelcassad shared video of a Russian DRG ambush on a vehicle with Ukrainian servicemen, showing gunfire and a vehicle on fire, indicating continued special operations tactics. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shared new FPV drone footage showing a vehicle moving in low-light, implying continued drone operations. "Сливочный каприз" new video with "Rubikon" and MoD Russia logos showing a drone strike on a vehicle, which they claim caused a "200" (KIA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims and UAF confirmation of active combat; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Basurin video; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Rybar video, unverified BDA; HIGH CONFIDENCE - MoD Russia video evidence of destruction, though specific targets and BDA are unverified; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Воин DV video and claims, unverified; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photos, indicates RUF forward logistics; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Starshe Eddy photos, intent is to confirm RUF presence; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Два майора video; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 map of Kherson direction; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Воин DV new video, suggests precision strike; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video of soldiers; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Операция Z new video; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Colonelcassad DRG ambush video; HIGH CONFIDENCE - АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА new video; HIGH CONFIDENCE - "Сливочный каприз" new photo/video). UAF General Staff provided an operational update for 22:00 24.06.2025, detailing ongoing RUF ground assaults. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared a video showing soldiers in a destroyed urban environment, indicating ongoing assault operations. The commander mentions being from "Shturm V" unit and serving since 2014, highlighting long-term experience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора posted a video of three individuals in military attire, with weapons, with a "collection for Kherson direction," indicating RUF efforts to support their forces in this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). «Зона СВО» shares photos of "Akhmat" special forces commander, glorifying him and showcasing the unit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z shares video claiming "Thunder" (RUF drone unit) burning enemy equipment near Kupyansk. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad posted a collection of photos alleging "mercenaries destroyed by Russian forces." (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified). WarGonzo shared a video of a Ukrainian flag in Kryvyi Rih becoming distorted by wind, likely to symbolize weakness or decline. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Рыбарь shares "Results of June 24," indicating internal operational summary. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Воин DV's video on civilian evacuation from Bahatyr, indicating continued RUF presence in previously contested areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared video of RUF destroying a UAF AGS crew on the Konstantinovka direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). TASS reports "AFU are 'crumbling' in areas of Russian fighter advances, said Apti Alaudinov, commander of the Akhmat special forces of the Russian Ministry of Defense" at 00:33:18Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared a photo collection from "Ugolok_Sitha" titled "Z - in the zone of the Special Military Operation" at 00:33:01Z JUN 25, which includes photos of RUF military personnel and equipment, indicating continued ground operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports foreign mercenaries in AFU are not as active as thought, quoting Akhmat commander Apti Alaudinov. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New video from Colonelcassad showing FPV drone strike on UAF pickup truck in Kupyansk vicinity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). TASS reports RUF advancing in Sumy Oblast using small groups to stretch enemy forces, citing Alaudinov. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z shares video titled "Battalion of Maxim Krivonos with Martyn Pushkar's detachment prepares for battles," featuring soldiers who defected to Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Военкор Котенок shares photo message captioned "Dnepropetrovsk/Pokrovske (Krasnoarmeyskoye) (left flank) direction," indicating continued RUF focus on these axes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a photo captioned "Paratrooper brotherhood, family," a morale post. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора shared a video (no specific location) of soldiers operating drones for reconnaissance and targeting, with patriotic messages, likely for morale boosting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь shares "Chronicle of the Special Military Operation for June 23." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports FPV drone strikes by "Yug" group destroyed an American M119 howitzer and an ammunition depot in DNR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). TASS reports RUF forces have pushed through UAF defenses near Kupyansk, with less than 1 km to the city, citing military expert Andrei Marochko. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified). Воин DV shares video of a "Molniya" loitering munition striking a building with Ukrainian forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). Rybar shares new video on "Liberation of Grigorievka and battles for Verkhnekamenskoye," further indicating RUF focus on this sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). Colonelcassad shares video of "Rubikon" unit destroying an ammunition depot near Kolodezi. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shared a video showing aerial footage of an explosion or strike on an infantry group, indicating continued RUF targeting of UAF infantry. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). WarGonzo shared maps detailing claimed RUF advances and active combat zones in Zaporizhzhia, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar directions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF map claims, unverified). Два майора published a video of a tactical drone strike in Zaporizhzhia region, showing a visible explosion within a wooded area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video appealing for donations for "Paratroopers," specifically mentioning Mavic 3T and Mavic 3 Pro drones, and night/day reconnaissance, for a "volunteer unit, Storm Airborne Regiment," along with comms, indicating ongoing combat operations and equipment needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad reports on demining operations in Kursk Oblast, indicating RUF presence and previous UAF activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Военкор Котенок shares a photo collage with military imagery, indicating continued IO to support ground operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Artillery/Air Strikes: RUF employed ballistic missiles (claimed 4 Iskanders) on Dnipro, causing significant civilian infrastructure damage and casualties (now 18 dead, 279 wounded), including a passenger train. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports four explosions in Dnipropetrovsk industrial zone, likely Iskander. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claimed RUF forces hit a "rocket and armored vehicle production plant" in Dnipropetrovsk. RUF aviation continues airstrikes in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia (KABs), Sumy (KABs), and Odesa Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued new alerts for KAB launches on Sumy Oblast at 18:22Z and 18:31Z, indicating continued RUF aerial activity. A new alert was issued for KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast at 00:12:24Z JUN 25. MoD Russia shows Grad MLRS activity in Kharkiv. "Два майора" shows combat work of 127th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade FPV drones in Kherson direction, striking a truck and artillery. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА claims Abrams destroyed by Lancet in Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad provides an animated map of RUF strikes on Ukraine, 23-24 JUN. Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reported continued enemy attacks on Nikopol region, including residential buildings, infrastructure, and an agricultural enterprise. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration) reports RUF conducted an airstrike on one of the settlements in Polohy district. Операция Z (Military Correspondents of Russian Spring) posted video of aftermath of an alleged enemy attempt to destroy "Espanyola" marine detachment, demonstrating continued naval targeting or defensive actions. Басурин о главном posted a video showing a rocket launch at night, likely an RUF missile or rocket system launch, indicating continued strike capabilities. STERNENKO shared drone footage with the 'MOLOT' logo indicating Russian origin, showing a residential area in Donetsk Oblast with significant damage and an explosion, suggesting continued RUF strikes on civilian infrastructure within contested zones. ТАСС reports Saldo states AFU conducting massive attack by aircraft-type UAVs on Kherson Oblast, indicating RUF is also on the receiving end of UAV attacks. ASTRA reports 8 UAVs shot down in Ulyanovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports three civilian casualties in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi lyceum strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also named the three killed employees in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued an alert for UAVs heading towards Odesa Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports a UAV threat declared in Saratov Oblast, and four UAVs destroyed over Tatarstan, indicating continued UAF deep strike activity on RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in eastern Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New air raid siren in Saratov and Engels (RF territory) due to UAV threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares video of aftermath of strikes on "Radiozavod" in Kyiv, showing damaged vehicles and ongoing fires, confirming RUF strikes on targets in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports explosion at "Atlant AERO" factory in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, Russia, after an alleged "arrival." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports explosion at "Atlant AERO" factory in Taganrog after an alleged "arrival." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports restrictions on receiving/releasing aircraft at Saratov airport lifted, likely after UAF UAV activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAV towards Poltava city and Pavlohrad city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports UAV debris damaged roof of a stadium and a grain warehouse in Rostov Oblast; UAVs shot down in Taganrog, Azov, and Rodionovo-Nesvetay district, confirming RUF AD activity against UAF deep strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New fast target on Zaporizhzhia, followed by explosions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for 16 UAVs heading towards Dobropillia/Druzhkivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares video of a civilian claiming Ukrainian shelling/drone attacks in Nikolsky, Kursk region, resulting in 7 KIA, as part of RUF's IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports UAVs attacked 5 regions of RF and Crimea, including damage to a football stadium in Taganrog. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports explosions in Vylkove. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports 9 UAVs heading to Vylkove. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports 7 UAVs remaining out of 16 towards Vylkove. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alerts for UAVs towards Kharkiv city, and explosions with civilian enterprise damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alerts for UAVs towards Sumy city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alerts for UAVs in Mykolaiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Two missiles impacted Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Kharkiv was attacked by seven Shahed-type drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 64-year-old man wounded in Kharkiv attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports RUF also struck Kupyansk overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports RUF also struck Kupyansk with KABs overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports two people wounded in Zaporizhzhia due to strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in eastern Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alerts for 2 UAVs heading to/through Kremenchuk, indicating continued RUF drone strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ reports 4 strikes on Zaporizhzhia, 2 wounded, with video evidence of damaged civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports FPV drone strikes by "Yug" group destroyed an American M119 howitzer and an ammunition depot in DNR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RUF forces struck a UAF military unit in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports 9 private homes damaged by missile strikes on Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares video of a private house impacted by an explosion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of an explosion in Azov, Rostov Oblast, claiming a strike on an oil refinery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shared a video showing FPV drone footage, claiming it's the "night work of attack UAVs of the special forces battalion of the 51st Guards Army of the Southern Military District," indicating RUF counter-UAV capabilities and continued air-based strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). TASS reports that OAK delivered a new batch of Su-35S aircraft to the Russian Ministry of Defense as part of the state defense order, indicating continued RUF military production. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора published a video of a tactical drone strike in Zaporizhzhia region, showing a visible explosion within a wooded area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy tactical aviation activity in the northeast direction, likely indicating KAB launches. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Internal Security Operations: RUF State Duma is tightening internal controls via legislation regarding military registration and traffic violations, allowing stateless persons to serve in military, and creating a national digital service/messenger. Putin signed a law on blocking financial assets and property of individuals and organizations suspected of involvement in sabotage. Mash na Donbasse reports that the data verification period for "Phoenix" (presumably a telecommunications or data service) has been extended until November 1, officially. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shared a video of an alleged mobilized Russian soldier recounting experiences of mistreatment, torture, and threats by Russian forces, including being beaten and threatened for refusing to kill, and witnessing deaths due to torture. This suggests internal disciplinary and human rights issues within RUF. ASTRA reported on a new initiative in St. Petersburg where "participants of the war with Ukraine will instill 'traditional values'" in schoolchildren, indicating further militarization of Russian society and youth indoctrination. АSTRA also reports on a "repeatedly convicted serviceman beating two girls in Buryatia," suggesting a breakdown in internal discipline and a rise in criminality among RUF personnel. Kadyrov_95 shared video of the "All-Russian Forum 'Russia - House of Peoples'" in Grozny, promoting interethnic unity and traditional values, indicating continued soft power efforts and internal consolidation. ASTRA reported on the Russian Supreme Court deeming "Allatra" movement "extremist" and banning it in RF. ASTRA also reported legal protocols against Apple and Kinopoisk for "LGBT propaganda," with threats of fines or suspension. ASTRA also reported on a local political reform in Altai that local residents opposed, indicating some internal dissent, though likely suppressed. TASS reports that FSB has stated that Ukrainian spy Yulian Belokon, convicted in DNR, marked places on a map with military units of the RF Armed Forces, indicating continued counter-intelligence operations and attribution of espionage to Ukraine. ASTRA reports Putin signed a law on FSB control over Russian scientists' contacts with foreign colleagues, indicating increased internal security measures related to information control. Новости Москвы reports the State Duma is developing a list of permitted names for children. TASS reports Putin posthumously awarded the Order of Courage to Pavel Mishin, a train driver killed in a bridge collapse in Bryansk Oblast, indicating a recent incident potentially related to UAF activity or internal sabotage. TASS reports that commanders of military units have gained the right to impose disciplinary arrest on servicemen for gross misconduct during the 'special operation,' indicating a further tightening of internal discipline within RUF. ASTRA reports on a streamer who fabricated a case for a negative review being charged with "justifying Nazism," which is part of Russia's wider internal crackdown on perceived dissent or "extremism." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports arrest of "Rostovvodokanal" director in Rostov region, indicating potential anti-corruption efforts or internal power struggles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Филолог в засаде reports on a meeting about military volunteerism, highlighting challenges faced by Russian volunteers, which can impact internal support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Putin has tasked the government to consider proposals from Russian businesses on the conditions for foreign companies to return to Russia, indicating a potential shift in economic policy to encourage foreign investment, which could indirectly support the war economy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS). Два майора published a message about the importance of a certain issue being raised at a public chamber meeting, indicating continued RUF focus on public engagement and internal discourse. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Lukashenko and Putin held a phone conversation, indicating continued high-level coordination between RF and Belarus. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора mentions "Military reform 2026," suggesting future internal military developments. (LOW CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка reports Putin posthumously awarded sergeant Radislav Khugaev the title of Hero of Russia for actions in Mariupol, which serves to boost morale and glorify soldiers. Операция Z also reports "President awarded the title of Hero of Russia to a SVO fighter from South Ossetia Radislav Khugaev" at 00:32:27Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports an individual accused of attempted murder for throwing a child in Sheremetyevo airport, citing the Investigative Committee, highlighting RUF's focus on domestic criminal investigations, potentially used for internal propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA also reports the Investigative Committee presented charges in the Sheremetyevo case, reinforcing the focus on internal law enforcement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Стрелков Игорь Иванович expresses criticism of RUF's foreign policy on the "Iranian crisis" and Russia's lack of formal support for Iran, indicating dissent within the hardline pro-war community regarding RUF foreign policy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns reported Ukrainian language being excluded from school programs in "new regions" and Crimea by the Ministry of Education, implying a new form of cultural suppression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reported that temporary restrictions on flights at Tambov airport were lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reported the same about Tambov airport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reported on military enlistment offices in Saransk allegedly using threats and alcohol to induce alcoholics and homeless individuals to sign contracts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). MoD Russia's "Top News Today" photo indicates continued control over public messaging. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared photos from readers, which are likely pro-RUF propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Police of Khabarovsk Krai shared photo messages with text about complex, multi-stage fraud schemes starting with data analysis, possibly as public safety announcements. (LOW MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal news). TASS reports investigation into former Russian Deputy Defense Minister Bulgakov for fraud. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports an uncompleted Ukrainian army corps intended for Kharkiv direction was not fully manned, citing security forces. This implies RUF intelligence on UAF force generation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z posted a video requesting thermal imagers for Russian soldiers, indicating continued logistical needs and reliance on public support within RUF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares a video of poor living conditions in Yakutia, Russia, which could undermine RUF internal stability narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports police visited "Union of Maoists" activists in Yekaterinburg. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that scammers are offering "jobs" to extort money, as reported by VTB (Russian bank), indicating a domestic concern. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports that searches are being conducted at the State Secretary of Dagestan, Magomed-Sultan Magomedov, and his relatives, indicating internal crackdown on corruption or dissent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports two Moldovan intelligence agents were arrested in Moscow by the FSB, indicating continued counter-intelligence operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора also confirms the arrest of two Moldovan citizens. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:
Ground Capabilities: RUF continues to demonstrate capability for localized ground advances, particularly on the Donetsk axis, aiming to seize key UAF strongholds and logistical nodes (e.g., Dyleyevka, Perebudova near Konstantinovka, Krasnolimansk direction, Chasiv Yar direction). "Операция Z" video on Dyleyevka indicates active combat to secure and hold claimed positions. Операция Z also posted new drone footage showing hits on an "enemy vehicle," "BMP," and "firing position/shelter," confirming ongoing offensive actions and target types. The UAF General Staff reports of 10 repelled assaults in Sumy/Kursk, and the Kotsnews report on RUF "advance" in Sumy, and the Старше Эдды "buffer zone" report, confirm persistent RUF ground pressure and capability in the north, even if no major breakthrough has occurred. RUF continues destructive operations against UAF positions, as evidenced by WarGonzo's footage and MoD Russia's MLRS strikes, and new MoD Russia video showing combat actions by multiple Groups of Forces, including explosions in forested and populated areas. New RUF footage ("Rubikon," "Два майора," Воин DV, MoD Russia, Рыбарь) demonstrates sustained FPV drone and UAV-KT combat work, targeting UAF logistics (ammunition depots, trucks), artillery pieces, and now includes claimed strikes on UAF UAV control points and claimed Abrams/T-72 destruction, as well as a UAF T-72 tank, ATV, and vehicle with personnel (claimed by Воин DV). Воин DV's claims of 29th Army's rapid advance near Yalta due to concentrated firepower suggest specific areas of tactical focus and resource allocation. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's photos showing supply delivery to the "front" and video of soldiers' living conditions indicate active forward logistical operations and the harsh conditions.** Два майора's video from Konstantinovka direction showcasing drone strikes and FABs indicates combined-arms tactical adaptations for assault operations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's new map of the "Kherson direction" indicates continued RUF tactical planning or operations in the area. Воин DV's new video of a precision drone strike by 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade further highlights RUF's use of SOF and drones for targeted strikes against personnel/vehicles. Colonelcassad shared video of a Russian DRG ambush on a vehicle with Ukrainian servicemen, showing gunfire and a vehicle on fire, indicating continued special operations tactics. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shared new FPV drone footage showing a vehicle moving in low-light, implying continued drone reconnaissance or strike capabilities. "Сливочный каприз" new video with "Rubikon" and MoD Russia logos shows a drone strike, which they claim caused a "200" (KIA). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's video of "storm airborne regiment" seeking drones confirms a desire to enhance ground unit capabilities with UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad's video of RUF stormtroopers in urban combat environment confirms ongoing assault capabilities and unit morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора's collection for Kherson direction indicates ongoing RUF ground operations and resource needs in that area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). «Зона СВО» shares photos of "Akhmat" special forces commander, glorifying him and showcasing the unit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z shares video claiming "Thunder" (RUF drone unit) burning enemy equipment near Kupyansk. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad posted a collection of photos alleging "mercenaries destroyed by Russian forces." (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified). Воин DV's video on civilian evacuation from Bahatyr indicates continued RUF presence in previously contested areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared video of RUF destroying a UAF AGS crew on the Konstantinovka direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). TASS reports "AFU are 'crumbling' in areas of Russian fighter advances, said Apti Alaudinov, commander of the Akhmat special forces of the Russian Ministry of Defense" at 00:33:18Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared a photo collection from "Ugolok_Sitha" titled "Z - in the zone of the Special Military Operation" at 00:33:01Z JUN 25, which includes photos of RUF military personnel and equipment, indicating continued ground operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports foreign mercenaries in AFU are not as active as thought, quoting Akhmat commander Apti Alaudinov. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New video from Colonelcassad showing FPV drone strike on UAF pickup truck in Kupyansk vicinity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). TASS reports RUF advancing in Sumy Oblast using small groups to stretch enemy forces, citing Alaudinov. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z shares video titled "Battalion of Maxim Krivonos with Martyn Pushkar's detachment prepares for battles," featuring soldiers who defected to Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Военкор Котенок shares photo message captioned "Dnepropetrovsk/Pokrovske (Krasnoarmeyskoye) (left flank) direction," indicating continued RUF focus on these axes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a photo captioned "Paratrooper brotherhood, family," a morale post. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора shared a video (no specific location) of soldiers operating drones for reconnaissance and targeting, with patriotic messages, likely for morale boosting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь shares "Chronicle of the Special Military Operation for June 23." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports FPV drone strikes by "Yug" group destroyed an American M119 howitzer and an ammunition depot in DNR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). TASS reports RUF forces have pushed through UAF defenses near Kupyansk, with less than 1 km to the city, citing military expert Andrei Marochko, indicating RUF intent and capabilities for further advance on this axis. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified). Воин DV shares video of a "Molniya" loitering munition striking a building with Ukrainian forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). Rybar shares new video on "Liberation of Grigorievka and battles for Verkhnekamenskoye," detailing claimed RUF advances on the Seversk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). Colonelcassad shares video of "Rubikon" unit destroying an ammunition depot near Kolodezi, further demonstrating RUF ground force support capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shared a video showing aerial footage of an explosion or strike on an infantry group, confirming RUF capabilities to target UAF ground forces from the air. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). WarGonzo shared maps detailing claimed RUF advances and active combat zones in Zaporizhzhia, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar directions, showing their intent to advance on these fronts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF map claims, unverified). Два майора published a video of a tactical drone strike in Zaporizhzhia region, showing a visible explosion within a wooded area, demonstrating RUF ground offensive capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). Colonelcassad reports on demining operations in Kursk Oblast, indicating ongoing RUF ground force activity and focus on securing claimed areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's video showing a drone strike on Russian personnel at night, confirms RUF ground forces are active, including at night, and are vulnerable to UAF drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Artillery/Air Capabilities: RUF employed ballistic missiles (claimed 4 Iskanders) on Dnipro, causing significant civilian infrastructure damage and casualties (now 18 dead, 279 wounded), including a passenger train. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports four explosions in Dnipropetrovsk industrial zone, likely Iskander. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claimed RUF forces hit a "rocket and armored vehicle production plant" in Dnipropetrovsk. RUF aviation continues airstrikes in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia (KABs), Sumy (KABs), and Odesa Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued new alerts for KAB launches on Sumy Oblast at 18:22Z and 18:31Z, indicating continued RUF aerial activity. A new alert was issued for KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast at 00:12:24Z JUN 25. MoD Russia shows Grad MLRS activity in Kharkiv. "Два майора" shows combat work of 127th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade FPV drones in Kherson direction, striking a truck and artillery. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА claims Abrams destroyed by Lancet in Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad provides an animated map of RUF strikes on Ukraine, 23-24 JUN. Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reported continued enemy attacks on Nikopol region, including residential buildings, infrastructure, and an agricultural enterprise, highlighting ongoing artillery/drone pressure on civilian areas. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration) reports RUF conducted an airstrike on one of the settlements in Polohy district. Операция Z (Military Correspondents of Russian Spring) posted video of aftermath of an alleged enemy attempt to destroy "Espanyola" marine detachment, demonstrating continued naval targeting or defensive actions. Басурин о главном posted a video showing a rocket launch at night, likely an RUF missile or rocket system launch, indicating continued strike capabilities. STERNENKO shared drone footage with the 'MOLOT' logo indicating Russian origin, showing a residential area in Donetsk Oblast with significant damage and an explosion, suggesting continued RUF strikes on civilian infrastructure within contested zones. ТАСС reports Saldo states AFU conducting massive attack by aircraft-type UAVs on Kherson Oblast, indicating RUF is also on the receiving end of UAV attacks. ASTRA reports 8 UAVs shot down in Ulyanovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports three civilian casualties in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi lyceum strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also named the three killed employees in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued an alert for UAVs heading towards Odesa Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports a UAV threat declared in Saratov Oblast, and four UAVs destroyed over Tatarstan, indicating continued UAF deep strike activity on RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in eastern Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New air raid siren in Saratov and Engels (RF territory) due to UAV threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares video of aftermath of strikes on "Radiozavod" in Kyiv, showing damaged vehicles and ongoing fires, confirming RUF strikes on targets in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports explosion at "Atlant AERO" factory in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, Russia, after an alleged "arrival." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports explosion at "Atlant AERO" factory in Taganrog after an alleged "arrival." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports restrictions on receiving/releasing aircraft at Saratov airport lifted, likely after UAF UAV activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAV towards Poltava city and Pavlohrad city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports UAV debris damaged roof of a stadium and a grain warehouse in Rostov Oblast; UAVs shot down in Taganrog, Azov, and Rodionovo-Nesvetay district, confirming RUF AD activity against UAF deep strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New fast target on Zaporizhzhia, followed by explosions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for 16 UAVs heading towards Dobropillia/Druzhkivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares video of a civilian claiming Ukrainian shelling/drone attacks in Nikolsky, Kursk region, resulting in 7 KIA, as part of RUF's IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports UAVs attacked 5 regions of RF and Crimea, including damage to a football stadium in Taganrog. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports explosions in Vylkove. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports 9 UAVs heading to Vylkove. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports 7 UAVs remaining out of 16 towards Vylkove. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alerts for UAVs towards Kharkiv city, and explosions with civilian enterprise damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alerts for UAVs towards Sumy city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alerts for UAVs in Mykolaiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Two missiles impacted Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Kharkiv was attacked by seven Shahed-type drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 64-year-old man wounded in Kharkiv attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports RUF also struck Kupyansk overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports RUF also struck Kupyansk with KABs overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports two people wounded in Zaporizhzhia due to strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in eastern Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alerts for 2 UAVs heading to/through Kremenchuk, indicating continued RUF drone strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ reports 4 strikes on Zaporizhzhia, 2 wounded, with video evidence of damaged civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports FPV drone strikes by "Yug" group destroyed an American M119 howitzer and an ammunition depot in DNR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RUF forces struck a UAF military unit in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports 9 private homes damaged by missile strikes on Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares video of a private house impacted by an explosion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of an explosion in Azov, Rostov Oblast, claiming a strike on an oil refinery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shared a video showing FPV drone footage, claiming it's the "night work of attack UAVs of the special forces battalion of the 51st Guards Army of the Southern Military District," indicating RUF counter-UAV capabilities and continued air-based strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). TASS reports that OAK delivered a new batch of Su-35S aircraft to the Russian Ministry of Defense as part of the state defense order, indicating continued RUF military production and thus sustained air capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора published a video of a tactical drone strike in Zaporizhzhia region, showing a visible explosion within a wooded area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy tactical aviation activity in the northeast direction, likely indicating KAB launches. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Information Warfare Capabilities: RUF's IO remains highly agile and adaptive, rapidly amplifying claims of tactical gains (Dyleyevka, Petrovske/Hrekivka, Sumy "buffer zone", Perebudova, "successes near Konstantinovka," Krasnolimansk), domestic issues, and attempting to project control by claiming "buffer zones" in Ukraine. They continue to use disinformation to justify internal crackdowns and maintain public support, and are actively shaping narratives around international events. The extension of "Phoenix" data verification suggests ongoing efforts to control information flow and monitor digital communications within occupied territories or Russia itself. The quick amplification of the fake Trump Nobel Prize nomination by pro-RUF channels demonstrates their willingness to spread distracting, unsubstantiated narratives. Alex Parker Returns' explicit claims about Iran's "victory" over Israel and Trump's Nobel nomination reinforce this. The dehumanizing rhetoric directed at Zelenskyy ("гнида") by "Зона СВО" and the genocidal rhetoric from Военкор Котенок ("Reality, called war, will definitely knock on the door of every house...") indicates continued efforts to delegitimize Ukrainian leadership and incite violence. The rapid shift in the Israel-Iran narrative from immediate conflict to "resolved" (by Trump) by RUF channels, and then counter-narratives by TASS (impeachment, Israeli Army Chief of Staff's statement, de-escalation confirmed), highlights extreme agility and manipulation of global events for internal and external consumption. Alex Parker Returns' video of the Ukrainian flag in Kryvyi Rih also reflects subtle IO tactics aimed at internal Ukrainian morale or superstitions. Два майора also shared this. WarGonzo published a photo/text "Europe will continue to inject money into Ukraine: results of the first day of the NATO summit," acknowledging Western support but likely spinning it negatively. Операция Z posted a video of Trump discussing his priorities for Ukraine, likely aiming to sow doubt about US support. НгП раZVедка also shared satirical videos of Trump related to the Iran-Israel conflict. Colonelcassad shared multiple videos of a large public gathering in Tehran, supporting "Operation Basharat Fath" and thanking armed forces, implying Iranian "victory" and public support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also shared video of celebrations in Iran, with a clown emoji, indicating Ukrainian skepticism of the "victory" claims. Операция Z also shared multiple videos of large public gatherings in Tehran celebrating "victory over Israel," reinforcing the RUF IO narrative. Kotsnews claiming the world media shifted from Ukraine to the East with relief highlights RUF's self-perception of IO success. РБК-Україна expert analysis reports on how open-source intelligence is used by RUF to target Ukrainian cities, highlighting RUF's adaptive IO/targeting capabilities. Alex Parker Returns published a photo with a caption using derogatory language against Ukrainians and asserting "Parker's axiom," indicating continued use of dehumanizing rhetoric and propaganda. «Зона СВО» (SVO Zone) posted a video portraying the Ukrainian flag being torn from a flagpole by wind in Zelenskyy's hometown, aiming to symbolize Ukraine's weakening state and demoralize. MoD Russia video on signalmen in Kherson region is part of RUF's IO to show control and effectiveness. Военкор Котенок shared a photo with a caption alluding to "new conflicts" being threatened, possibly to frame Russia as under external pressure or to justify further actions. Два майора posted a photo about "Serbs needing to sell shells," indicating RUF IO attempting to influence international arms markets in their favor. Colonelcassad shared new videos of Iran celebrations, explicitly stating the Quds Force commander is alive, aiming to refute counter-IO. Alex Parker Returns also shared similar IO, including claims of Khamenei was present and undetected by Mossad. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Netanyahu's statement that Israel "froze" Iran's nuclear project and will act with the same force against attempts to revive it, aiming to control the narrative on the Middle East. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z's claim of "enemy attacking Kazan and Kherson region" is a form of IO to acknowledge UAF actions while framing them as hostile. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Стрелков Игорь Иванович's critical commentary on RUF's foreign policy on the "Iranian crisis" is a notable instance of internal pro-war dissent within the IO space. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns reported Ukrainian language being excluded from school programs in "new regions" and Crimea, using the term "хохлов" (derogatory for Ukrainians), signaling a new wave of cultural suppression and IO against Ukrainian identity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns explicitly used "шизоидов" (schizoids) to refer to Ukrainians in the context of school education, further emphasizing dehumanization in IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The video of NATO leaders by ASTRA is likely monitored and analyzed by RUF for IO purposes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора's video of the "Espanyola" special forces marine detachment operating from a mobile command post aims to project RUF naval special operations capability and control in Crimea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z amplified CNN's report that US strikes did not destroy Iran's nuclear program, aims to undermine US military effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad commented on IAEA wanting to visit Iranian sites, advising against it, to control the information and narratives around Iran's nuclear program. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA's report on military enlistment offices in Saransk using unethical tactics highlights a dark side of RUF recruitment, which if widely disseminated could damage RUF's public image and recruitment efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's post about "paratrooper brotherhood" is a typical morale-boosting IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). MoD Russia's "Top News Today" photo indicates continued control over public messaging. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Военкор Котенок reports White House dissatisfaction with US media publications stating that strikes on June 22 did not destroy Iran's nuclear program, indicating RUF IO attempting to highlight US internal dissent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Nebenzya stating US/Israel actions against Iran's nuclear facilities are a dangerous infringement on NPT authority and Iran's right to peaceful nuclear energy, indicating RUF IO aligning with Iran's narrative against US/Israel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). «Зона СВО» shares photos of "Akhmat" special forces commander, as part of glorification and recruitment IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы reports registration open for Night Cycling Festival in Moscow, projecting normalcy and stability. (NO MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE). «Зона СВО» shares video of Zelenskyy's speech, with a mocking caption, indicating continued direct targeting of Ukrainian leadership in IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). «Зона СВО» shares a "good night" photo, a rare instance of non-military related IO, likely to project normalcy or build community. (NO MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE). РБК-Україна shares videos of the "Atlant AERO" explosion, indicating RUF monitoring of UAF deep strikes against RF territory, while also demonstrating RUF's willingness to publish such incidents. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports on the cost of the Krokus City Hall attack organizers, indicating RUF's continued IO on attributing blame and justifying actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы published a humorous image with no military significance, contributing to normalcy IO. (NO MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE). TASS reports: Erdogan held talks with Trump in The Hague, they discussed Ukraine and the Middle East, indicating RUF monitoring of this high-level diplomatic activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns posted a general IO message "More insights. Be good!", implying influence and control over information. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared videos from readers promoting "From Czechia - with love for Russia: how Jan Jirasko found home and business on Russian soil," which is a soft-power IO piece, highlighting positive narratives of foreigners in Russia. (LOW MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE). RUF claims Iran TV reported WhatsApp will not be unblocked after the war, citing espionage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). RUF claims Iran deporting Afghans, citing them as Israeli recruits. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). BRICS nations expressed deep concern over US/Israel strikes on Iran, calling them a violation of international law. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). BRICS nations stressed need for nuclear-weapon-free zone in Middle East. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports some Israeli officials believe Iran retained small uranium enrichment sites. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared video of a civilian claiming Ukrainian shelling/drone attacks in Nikolsky, Kursk region, resulting in 7 KIA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). ТАСС reports Orban told Zelenskyy not to count on Ukraine's EU accession, as it would immediately drag the community into direct conflict with Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Police of Khabarovsk Krai shared photo messages with text about complex, multi-stage fraud schemes starting with data analysis, possibly as public safety announcements. (LOW MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal news). Colonelcassad posted videos that appear to be from "Ukraine Against" on destroying railway infrastructure in Poltava Oblast. This is an RUF IO effort to portray UAF as saboteurs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS report on NATO summit statement change regarding Ukraine's path to alliance, citing Hungarian FM, is a critical RUF IO piece to highlight divisions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports US confident in peace deal with Iran but will not allow uranium enrichment, signaling RUF's continued monitoring and reporting on geopolitical developments that impact their narrative on Western foreign policy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports US intelligence data leak could discredit Trump and his Middle East policy, which RUF will likely amplify to sow internal US discord. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Zelenskyy was placed far from Trump for photos at the NATO summit, according to C-SPAN. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). TASS reports "The conflict in Ukraine could have ended in 12 days, 'just like Israel's aggression against Iran', if Trump was US President instead of Biden at that time, according to American investor David Sachs. The head of RFPI Dmitriev agreed" at 00:11:01Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports "Trump intends to meet with Zelensky on June 25 at the NATO summit in The Hague, the American newspaper Politico reported" at 00:24:06Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports "Israel threatened Iran over the possibility of disrupting the ceasefire regime" at 00:28:01Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports "Israel threatened Iran over the possibility of disrupting the ceasefire regime" at 00:28:01Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports a US Congressman introduced an impeachment resolution against Trump for his "escalation of the situation in the Middle East." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, contradictory to previous Nobel claims). TASS reports Apti Alaudinov, commander of Akhmat special forces, stated foreign mercenaries in AFU are not as active, which is a new IO point to downplay UAF strength. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New TASS report quoting Bloomberg and Folha de S.Paulo states NATO countries are trying to flatter Trump to secure increased aid to Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Операция Z shares video titled "Battalion of Maxim Krivonos with Martyn Pushkar's detachment prepares for battles," featuring soldiers who defected to Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Trump refused to discuss Canada ambitions, indicating RUF IO on international politics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь shares "Chronicle of the Special Military Operation for June 23," which is a form of RUF IO to provide summaries of their operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports an uncompleted Ukrainian army corps intended for Kharkiv direction was not fully manned, citing security forces. This serves as RUF IO to show UAF force generation weaknesses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Xi Jinping will not attend the BRICS summit in July, which RUF IO could frame to their benefit regarding China's focus or internal dynamics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Басурин о главном shares photos of an elderly man with medals, likely as part of "history" IO to glorify past military figures or events. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The Washington Post reports organizers of the NATO summit are trying to reduce the likelihood of a Trump-Zelensky meeting, which is likely being amplified by RUF IO to sow doubt in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z shared a video with the caption "US will not allow Iran to enrich uranium even in the case of a nuclear deal," featuring an expert Steve Witkoff, indicating continued RUF IO on US-Iran relations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that scammers are offering "jobs" to extort money, as reported by VTB (Russian bank), which is part of RUF's domestic IO on crime. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports that searches are being conducted at the State Secretary of Dagestan, Magomed-Sultan Magomedov, and his relatives, indicating internal crackdown on corruption or dissent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports two Moldovan intelligence agents were arrested in Moscow by the FSB, indicating continued counter-intelligence operations and IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора also confirms the arrest of two Moldovan citizens by the FSB. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z reports that US intelligence undermined Trump's "triumph" at the NATO summit, citing NYT, as an RUF IO narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:
RUF: Continued high volume of ballistic missiles (claimed 4 Iskanders in Dnipro, confirmed by Poddubny), KABs (Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, Poltava, Pavlohrad, Rostov Oblast, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv), and Shahed/Geran-2 UAVs for deep strikes and shaping operations. The claimed capture of Dyleyevka, Perebudova and Petrovske/Hrekivka indicates persistent focus on expanding control in Donetsk/Luhansk Oblasts, with Rybar confirming "successes near Konstantinovka" and Basurin confirming "advances" on Krasnolimansk. Increased targeting of UAF training centers and temporary deployment areas indicates an adaptation to degrade UAF force generation, and now includes direct hits on passenger trains and schools (Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi), and civilian enterprises (Kharkiv), and Kupyansk with KABs. The continued, unsuccessful ground assaults in Sumy/Kursk, despite the large force concentration reported in the previous ISR, suggest a probing or attritional strategy for now, but the intent for a "buffer zone" or larger offensive remains, now overtly stated with MLRS activity in Kharkiv and Kotsnews' claims of "advance" in Sumy, supported by Старше Эдды's "buffer zone" report. The Rybar video on ambushing enemy transport and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's photos of supplies being delivered to the "front" and video of soldiers' living conditions indicate an RUF focus on degrading UAF logistics while maintaining their own. The alleged torture and mistreatment of mobilized soldiers by RUF, as reported by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, and the reported criminality of a serviceman in Buryatia (ASTRA), suggests potential issues with personnel morale and discipline, which could impact sustainment and overall force cohesion. ASTRA's report on Saransk military enlistment offices suggests problematic recruitment practices that might impact quality of personnel. TASS and ASTRA reports of Aeroflot flight adjustments in Russia could indicate minor logistical disruptions or new security measures impacting civil aviation, potentially linked to UAV threats in Saratov, Penza, and Tatarstan, as well as the lifting of restrictions at Tambov airport and Saratov airport, Samara, Penza, Ulyanovsk, Cheboksary airports, Kazan, and Nizhnekamsk. The arrest of the "Rostovvodokanal" director in Rostov region could indicate internal issues impacting civilian infrastructure that could have secondary effects on logistics. The discussions on military volunteerism in Russia (Филолог в засаде) suggest an ongoing effort to address logistical and support challenges for the war effort from civilian sources. The mobile internet shutdown in occupied Kherson suggests a more aggressive tactic to control communication. The rapid fabrication and 'resolution' of the Israel-Iran conflict by RUF IO channels demonstrates a highly dynamic and adaptive information warfare strategy, including the new 'victory' narrative for Iran. The use of open-source intelligence for targeting by RUF, as reported by РБК-Україна expert, indicates a tactical adaptation in intelligence gathering for strikes. New TASS report on military commanders gaining disciplinary arrest authority indicates further adaptation in internal control. The exclusion of Ukrainian language from school programs also indicates a new cultural/IO adaptation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF claims hits on "Radiozavod" in Kyiv, indicating adaptation to target industrial facilities deeper in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF also adapting to internal deep strikes, as evidenced by reports of explosions at "Atlant AERO" factory in Taganrog and UAV attacks in Rostov Oblast (Taganrog, Azov, Rodionovo-Nesvetay district). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF's rapid response to lift flight restrictions at Saratov airport after UAV activity indicates adaptive air traffic control management. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The footage from Serebryanskoye forestry indicates extensive FPV drone usage by both sides. Два майора's video from Konstantinovka direction showcasing drone strikes and FABs indicates combined-arms tactical adaptations for assault operations. The photo/map of "Kherson direction" from Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 suggests ongoing tactical planning and adaptation for that axis. Воин DV's new video of a precision drone strike by 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade further highlights RUF's use of SOF and drones for targeted strikes against personnel/vehicles. Colonelcassad shared video of a Russian DRG ambush on a vehicle with Ukrainian servicemen, showing gunfire and a vehicle on fire, indicating continued special operations tactics. The new MoD Russia video showing signalmen in Kherson and their operations indicates continued emphasis on C2 and potentially EW capabilities. "Сливочный каприз" new video with "Rubikon" logo confirms continued drone use and claimed destruction of a vehicle. RUF claims massive AFU UAV attack on Kherson Oblast, suggesting increased UAF drone activity on that axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF claims Iran TV reported WhatsApp will not be unblocked after the war, citing espionage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). RUF claims Iran deporting Afghans, citing them as Israeli recruits. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). TASS reports on Iran potentially preserving secret uranium enrichment sites. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Alex Parker Returns continues to propagate the narrative of Afghan deportation from Iran and US plans to import Afghan "specialists" to undermine US security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Alex Parker Returns highlights WhatsApp ban in Iran as evidence of Mossad espionage, reinforcing the narrative of external threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Colonelcassad's video of civilian testimony on alleged Ukrainian shelling in Kursk region is part of RUF's IO to frame Ukraine as a war criminal. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). RUF's rapid response to lift airport restrictions in Kazan and Nizhnekamsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad's video on "Ukraine Against" destroying railway infrastructure in Poltava suggests a new RUF adaptation to attribute acts of sabotage within RF to Ukrainian entities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS report on NATO summit statement change regarding Ukraine's path to alliance indicates RUF's adaptive IO to highlight alliance divisions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports US confident in peace deal with Iran but will not allow uranium enrichment and US intelligence leak about Trump's Middle East policy, which RUF will adapt to exploit US political dynamics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared video of RUF destroying a UAF AGS crew on the Konstantinovka direction, indicating tactical adaptation to target specific crew-served weapons. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim). TASS reports on the investigation into former Deputy Defense Minister Bulgakov. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF continues to show a collection of photos of "Z - in the zone of the Special Military Operation" at 00:33:01Z JUN 25, indicating continued adaptive IO to showcase operational activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports "AFU are 'crumbling' in areas of Russian fighter advances, said Apti Alaudinov, commander of the Akhmat special forces of the Russian Ministry of Defense" at 00:33:18Z JUN 25, indicating continued adaptive IO to report claimed tactical successes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports foreign mercenaries in AFU are not as active, which is a new IO point to downplay UAF strength. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in eastern Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alerts for 2 UAVs heading to/through Kremenchuk, indicating continued adaptive drone strike tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF IO adapting to leverage Bloomberg and Folha de S.Paulo reports on NATO trying to flatter Trump for increased aid to Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports RUF advancing in Sumy Oblast using small groups to stretch enemy forces, citing Alaudinov. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z shares video titled "Battalion of Maxim Krivonos with Martyn Pushkar's detachment prepares for battles," featuring soldiers who defected to Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора shared a video (no specific location) of soldiers operating drones for reconnaissance and targeting, with patriotic messages, likely for morale boosting, indicating continued RUF adaptation in drone warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports FPV drone strikes by "Yug" group destroyed an American M119 howitzer and an ammunition ammunition depot in DNR, indicating continued RUF adaptation in precision strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). TASS reports an uncompleted Ukrainian army corps intended for Kharkiv direction was not fully manned, citing security forces. This implies RUF intelligence on UAF force generation and adaptation of IO to highlight it. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports RUF forces have pushed through UAF defenses near Kupyansk, with less than 1 km to the city, indicating a tactical adaptation and focus on this axis. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified). Воин DV shares video of a "Molniya" loitering munition striking a building with Ukrainian forces, indicating adaptation of loitering munitions tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). Rybar shares new video on "Liberation of Grigorievka and battles for Verkhnekamenskoye," detailing claimed RUF advances on the Seversk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). Colonelcassad shares video of "Rubikon" unit destroying an ammunition depot near Kolodezi, indicating RUF adaptation in precision strikes against logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shared a video showing aerial footage of an explosion or strike on an infantry group, indicating a tactical adaptation to employ precision strikes against ground personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). TASS reports that OAK delivered a new batch of Su-35S aircraft to the Russian Ministry of Defense as part of the state defense order, indicating sustained and adapting air force capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора published a video of a tactical drone strike in Zaporizhzhia region, indicating adaptive drone warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). TASS reports FSB detained two Moldovan intelligence agents, indicating adaptive counter-intelligence measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z reports that US intelligence undermined Trump's "triumph" at the NATO summit, citing NYT, which is an adaptive RUF IO narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's video showing a drone strike on Russian personnel at night, indicates that RUF ground forces are adapting to night operations but are still vulnerable to UAF drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF: Continues to demonstrate effective AD responses to RUF UAVs in some areas, but struggles with the volume and type (ballistic, KAB) of deeper strikes. UAF is actively building fortifications, including anti-drone tunnels for logistics, as well as engaging in basic general military training and advanced procurement training. UAF ground forces are effectively repelling multiple RUF assaults across various axes, indicating strong defensive posture, and are conducting limited counter-actions (e.g., 3rd Assault Brigade near Ridkodub, Ghost of Khortytsia drone operations, UAF SOF destroying RUF assault group on Pokrovsk direction). UAF has demonstrated success in downing RUF reconnaissance UAVs with FPV drones (128th OGShBr downing Orlan-30), indicating adaptive counter-UAV tactics. STERNENKO's video of "Wings to Hell" unit destroying an RUF soldier with a drone in Sumy Oblast demonstrates ongoing asymmetric drone warfare. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS' video of a UAV destroying a RUF Grad MLRS demonstrates effective counter-battery and drone usage. UAF continues deep strikes on RUF territory, evidenced by reported oil depot strikes and KIA, now including STERNENKO's video of "Novem Group" destroying RUF logistics in Kursk Oblast. STERNENKO's report on "drone safety" in multiple RF oblasts further highlights UAF's continued deep strike capability. UAF is demonstrating capability for complex non-military operations such as the evacuation of citizens from Iran (РБК-Україна), highlighting adaptive diplomatic and logistical capabilities beyond the battlefield. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС showcased Ukrainian forces utilizing "Shark" reconnaissance UAVs, indicating UAF's adaptation in advanced aerial reconnaissance and intelligence. Олексій Білошицький's video on police providing first aid in Dnipro highlights civilian emergency services adapting to and managing the consequences of RUF strikes. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shared video of 3rd Separate Tank "Iron" Brigade destroying RUF forces and a new FPV drone video targeting an RUF UAZ vehicle ("bukhanka"). ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 shared video of "BLACK SKY" unit of 3rd Separate Presidential Brigade "Spartan" striking RUF forces in western outskirts of Novoserhiivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ's latest video from Sumy Oblast showing FPV drone activity over RUF casualties confirms UAF's continued effectiveness in localized engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports a collection for transport for drone operators of 421st Separate UAV Battalion "Sapsan" on the Sumy direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports PACE called on Russia to create a mechanism for permanent exchange of prisoners with Ukraine, indicating UAF's continued use of diplomatic channels to pressure RUF on humanitarian issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO's comment on "underperforming today's norm for rusoriz" suggests a continued offensive mindset and adaptation in setting operational goals. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video shows Ukrainian F-16 shooting down a Shahed, indicating new capabilities for air defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash na Donbasse reports part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast without power due to UAF strike, indicating UAF adaptation to target RUF-controlled energy infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports successful strike on Bolkhov Semiconductor Device Plant (BZNP) on May 21, indicating UAF adaptation to target Russian military-industrial capacity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports explosion at "Atlant AERO" factory in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, Russia, further highlighting UAF deep strike adaptation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports explosion at "Atlant AERO" factory in Taganrog further confirming UAF deep strike capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Zelenskyy and Macron discussed increasing supply of Mirage fighters and joint production of interceptor drones, which would be a significant logistical gain for Ukraine's air defense capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна provides video of Andriy Yermak discussing Zelenskyy-Trump meeting and diplomatic efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports 7 UAVs remaining out of 16 towards Vylkove, indicating successful AD engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF AD successfully engaged UAVs towards Kharkiv and Sumy cities, and in Mykolaiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports all "moped" (UAVs) that were launched were destroyed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alerts for 2 UAVs heading to/through Kremenchuk, potentially requiring AD assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports EU's next sanctions should hit Putin's military budget, citing Sibyga. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Donald Trump's criticism of CNN and NYT over Iran nuclear strikes, demonstrating UAF's awareness of IO efforts targeting Western media. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ reports a preliminary US intelligence assessment via CNN that strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear facilities and only delayed the program by a few months, indicating UAF's adaptive intelligence and IO capabilities regarding global events. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports IAEA is unaware of the whereabouts of 400 kg of enriched uranium after US strikes on Iran, implying a potential and significant strategic setback for Iran's nuclear program, which could indirectly benefit Ukraine by limiting RUF's potential access to such technology/expertise from Iran. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 46th Separate Airmobile Podilska Brigade DSHV AFU shares photos from a "star intensive" training session, indicating ongoing training and readiness for UAF airborne units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video appealing for help for UAF soldiers, suggesting equipment needs and highlighting adaptability in seeking public support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shared a video titled "Український МІ-24 збиває рашистські шахеди" (Ukrainian Mi-24 shoots down rashist Shaheds), indicating UAF adaptation to use combat helicopters for air defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports on a strategic article "Will the war end in 2025? Russia is developing a summer offensive, but the US is not in a hurry to increase military aid," indicating UAF's adaptive analysis of geopolitical factors. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's video showing a drone strike on Russian personnel at night, confirms UAF's adaptive use of drones for night operations against RUF personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports that Europe is losing the space race and how Ukraine can help them catch up to Elon Musk, indicating UAF's adaptive IO regarding future technological partnerships. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:
2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:
Ground Forces: UAF maintains a resilient defensive posture, actively resisting RUF advances across multiple axes. The successful repelling of 10 assaults in Sumy/Kursk and 6 in Kherson demonstrates high readiness and determination on the flanks. UAF remains capable of localized counter-attacks, as suggested by the RUF claim of a UAF attempt to retake Mali Shcherbaky, and demonstrated by the 3rd Assault Brigade near Ridkodub and Ghost of Khortytsia drone operations. UAF Special Operations Forces demonstrated effective counter-assault tactics on Pokrovsk direction, destroying a RUF assault group. The 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade demonstrated effective counter-UAV capabilities by downing a Russian "Orlan-30" with an FPV drone. STERNENKO's video of "Wings to Hell" unit in Sumy Oblast further demonstrates UAF's active drone combat operations. Оперативний ЗСУ's video of 24th Separate Assault Battalion "Aidar" receiving a vehicle indicates continued support and operational readiness. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS' video of a UAV destroying a RUF Grad MLRS on Lyman direction demonstrates high readiness for counter-battery fire. Николаевский Ванёк reports UAF "tigers" captured a prisoner on the left bank of Kherson Oblast. STERNENKO's new video of "Novem Group" destroying RUF logistics in Kursk Oblast indicates continued UAF offensive capability across the border. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's posts highlighting military medics' importance underscores sustained efforts in personnel welfare and combat readiness. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС showcasing "Shark" reconnaissance UAV use indicates readiness in advanced ISR. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shared video of 3rd Separate Tank "Iron" Brigade destroying RUF forces and a new FPV drone video targeting an RUF UAZ vehicle ("bukhanka"). ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 shared video of "BLACK SKY" unit of 3rd Separate Presidential Brigade "Spartan" striking RUF forces in western outskirts of Novoserhiivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ's latest video from Sumy Oblast showing FPV drone activity over deceased RUF personnel, indicates ongoing UAF engagement and effectiveness in this sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Staff provided an operational update for 22:00 24.06.2025, detailing ongoing clashes and defensive operations across various axes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO's comment on "underperforming today's norm for rusoriz" indicates an active offensive posture and high readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shared a photo of a Ukrainian soldier in camouflage with a weapon and what appears to be a military vehicle, captioned with sarcastic appreciation for the RUF soldier's "shroud," indicating UAF tactical awareness and success in engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Воин DV's video shows humanitarian aid or rescue operations in Bahatyr, indicating UAF's continued presence and readiness to respond to humanitarian situations in contested areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Staff reports at 06:00 25.06.2025 detailing ongoing clashes and enemy actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shared an infographic detailing approximate RUF combat losses from 24.02.22 to 25.06.25, indicating continued UAF readiness to assess and report on enemy attrition. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Staff reports at 08:00 25.06.2025 detailing continued Russian invasion efforts across multiple directions, including Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Vremivka, Orikhiv, and Dnipro River Left Bank. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 46th Separate Airmobile Podilska Brigade DSHV AFU shares photos from a "star intensive" training session, indicating ongoing training and readiness for UAF airborne units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares a photo of military personnel, indicating active operations or training. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ shares a photo of a Ukrainian soldier with a flag, for daily commemoration, indicating personnel readiness and morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) shares photos about commemorating fallen Kyiv defenders, indicating continued support for personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's video showing a drone strike on Russian personnel at night, confirms UAF ground forces are capable of night operations and effective use of drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Air Defense: UAF AD is on high alert, actively tracking and responding to missile, KAB, and UAV threats to major cities, critical infrastructure, and military targets. The challenge remains significant given the volume and type (ballistic, KAB) of deeper strikes. UAF Air Force is actively detecting RUF reconnaissance UAVs and tactical aviation, including on the southeastern direction. The new ballistic missile threat alert from the southern direction and the new missile threat for Sumy Oblast indicate continued high AD readiness, although the most recent alert has been cancelled. A new KAB launch alert for Sumy Oblast was issued at 00:12:24Z JUN 25. Zelenskiy's reporting of 28,743 Shahed drones since full-scale invasion highlights the scale of AD challenge. РБК-Україна expert analysis on new, harder-to-intercept Shahed models emphasizes the evolving AD threat. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued an alert for "Several groups of UAVs in the Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast," indicating continued high AD readiness in the south. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAVs in Sumy Oblast, moving southwest, and for UAVs heading towards Odesa Oblast (Ovidipol/Chernomorsk, with 14 drones in the Black Sea, and 2 north of Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi), confirm ongoing AD readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports 2 UAVs were shot down near Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast heading towards Dnipropetrovsk (Synelnykivskyi district), and UAVs in Odesa Oblast (Sarata). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video shows Ukrainian F-16 shooting down a Shahed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for several groups of UAVs in eastern Kharkiv Oblast heading west. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAV towards Poltava city and Pavlohrad city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports on general "moped" (UAV) activity, indicating ongoing air defense concerns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAV from the south heading towards Zaporizhzhia city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Russia is attacking Ukraine with drones from different directions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAV in Kharkiv city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New fast target on Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for 16 UAVs heading towards Dobropillia/Druzhkivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for 6 UAVs from Black Sea towards Primorske/Tatarbunary, Odesa Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports 9 UAVs on Vylkove. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAVs in Vylkove. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports 7 UAVs remaining out of 16 towards Vylkove. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alerts for UAVs towards Kharkiv city from Bilhorod and from the north, and an explosion in Kharkiv city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alerts for UAVs towards Sumy city from the north. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alerts for UAVs in southern Mykolaiv Oblast heading northeast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAV from Mykolaiv Oblast to Kirovohrad Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports all "moped" (UAVs) that were launched were destroyed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAV from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to Poltava Oblast, and 2 UAVs heading to/through Kremenchuk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports air raid alert cancelled. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ reports 7 Shahed UAVs struck Kyivskyi district in Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shared a video showing a Ukrainian Mi-24 engaging Russian Shaheds, indicating continued use of combat helicopters for air defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy tactical aviation activity in the northeast direction, likely indicating KAB launches. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Defense Industry & Procurement: Netherlands' pledge of 600,000 drones and 100 anti-UAV radars is a significant boost, indicating continued focus on asymmetric capabilities and counter-UAV measures. Germany's approval of an €8.3 billion military aid budget is a major strategic commitment. РБК-Україна reported on Ukraine's domestic military-industrial complex potential of over $35 billion, indicating growing self-sufficiency, but also highlighting the need for increased funding and potential for partial export. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 confirmed Netherlands' new military aid package of 675 million euros, further solidifying this significant aid. Два майора reports that a Czech-Slovak company transferred a Shark aircraft to Ukraine for UAV suppression using EW, indicating new Western support for EW capabilities. Оперативний ЗСУ and STERNENKO report Zelenskyy discussed expanding air fleet with Mirages and co-production of interceptor drones with Macron, indicating focus on enhancing air capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Europe plans to persuade Trump to sell weapons to Ukraine, indicating ongoing strategic efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also shared photos of Zelenskyy meeting Macron, discussing increasing supply of Mirage fighters and joint production of interceptor drones to strengthen protection of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports EU's next sanctions should hit Putin's military budget, citing Sibyga. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports on a new UK approach to supporting UAF, by using "Kremlin money" for air defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Internal Security: SBU continues to thwart assassination attempts and counter hostile activities, successfully jailing an FSB agent in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Welfare/Personnel: Meetings with families of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" at the Coordination Staff highlight ongoing efforts to address personnel welfare and maintain morale. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's posts highlighting military medics' importance underscores sustained efforts in personnel care and retention. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ's video of Ukrainian soldiers requesting assistance for a damaged vehicle indicates ongoing material needs and challenges for frontline personnel. Олексій Білошицький's video on police providing first aid in Dnipro, while not direct military, shows civilian readiness and resilience under attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares a video about commemorating war victims, indicating focus on personnel welfare and public morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares a photo of military personnel, indicating ongoing support for personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ shares a photo of a Ukrainian soldier with a flag, for daily commemoration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) shares photos about commemorating fallen Kyiv defenders, indicating continued support for personnel and families. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:
Frontline Glorification/Claims: RUF channels aggressively disseminate claims of "liberating" Dyleyevka, Perebudova and Petrovske/Hrekivka, and "successes near Konstantinovka," and "confidently advancing on Krasnolimansk direction" showcasing military prowess and territorial gains. "Операция Z" video on Dyleyevka, featuring Russian flags, reinforces this narrative. Операция Z also posted new drone footage of strikes on enemy vehicle/BMP/shelter, aiming to glorify RUF offensive actions. The "buffer zone" claim in Sumy/Kharkiv, amplified by Kotsnews' "advance" report and KAB strikes, and Старше Эдды's "report from the buffer zone" (with photos) aims to project offensive capability in the north. WarGonzo displays destroyed residential areas, blaming UAF, and shares drone strike video on a wooded area (Zaporizhzhia). MoD Russia explicitly states MLRS operation in Kharkiv to create buffer zone. Рыбарь shares video message captioned "Organization and conduct of an ambush on enemy transport." MoD Russia's new video showcasing "destroying enemy defences" across multiple Group of Forces aims to project widespread offensive success. Воин DV promotes the 29th Army's rapid advance near Yalta due to concentrated firepower, and claims destruction of UAF T-72, ATV, and personnel. Their new video shows a precision strike in Karl Marx (Mirne) by 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (Paratrooper's Diary) promotes "Delivery to the front!" showing logistical support and their map of "Kherson direction" suggests ongoing operations, and a video of soldiers in basic frontline conditions. Colonelcassad and Военкор Котенок highlighting the intense FPV drone warfare in Serebryanskoye forestry indicates RUF's efforts to portray their forces as technologically advanced in drone combat. Оперативний ЗСУ also confirms this intense drone warfare. Два майора's video from Konstantinovka direction showing drone strikes and FABs aims to glorify RUF offensive capabilities. Операция Z (Military Correspondents of Russian Spring) posted video of aftermath of an alleged enemy attempt to destroy "Espanyola" marine detachment, aiming to portray Ukraine as attacking legitimate Russian targets. Басурин о главном posted a video appearing to show a rocket launch, intended to showcase RUF strike capabilities. STERNENKO shared drone footage with 'MOLOT' logo from Donetsk Oblast, confirming RUF IO using footage of civilian destruction to justify actions. MoD Russia video showing signalmen in Kherson aims to project control and effectiveness. Colonelcassad shared video of a Russian DRG ambush on a vehicle with Ukrainian servicemen, aiming to glorify special operations tactics. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shared new FPV drone footage implying continued drone operations. "Сливочный каприз" new video with "Rubikon" and MoD Russia logos shows a drone strike, aiming to glorify RUF precision. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad's video glorifying RUF stormtroopers, with the deputy platoon commander "Yozh" speaking about his service, aims to boost morale and project military professionalism. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора's video of the "Espanyola" special forces marine detachment operating from a mobile command post aims to project RUF naval special operations capability and control in Crimea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). «Зона СВО» shares photos of "Akhmat" special forces commander, glorifying him. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z shares video claiming "Thunder" (RUF drone unit) burning enemy equipment near Kupyansk. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad posted a collection of photos alleging "mercenaries destroyed by Russian forces." (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified). WarGonzo's video of a Ukrainian flag in Kryvyi Rih serves as symbolic demoralization against Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared video of a civilian claiming Ukrainian shelling/drone attacks in Nikolsky, Kursk region, resulting in 7 KIA, aimed at framing Ukraine as a war criminal. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь shares "Results of June 24," which is an internal operational summary likely used for IO purposes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Воин DV's video on civilian evacuation from Bahatyr, showing damaged buildings and mine/UXO presence, supports RUF claims of control and humanitarian efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad posted videos from "Ukraine Against" on destroying railway infrastructure in Poltava Oblast. This is an RUF IO effort to portray UAF as saboteurs and justify potential counter-actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared video of RUF destroying a UAF AGS crew on the Konstantinovka direction, aimed at glorifying RUF tactical success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim). TASS reports "AFU are 'crumbling' in areas of Russian fighter advances, said Apti Alaudinov, commander of the Akhmat special forces of the Russian Ministry of Defense" at 00:33:18Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared a photo collection from "Ugolok_Sitha" titled "Z - in the zone of the Special Military Operation" at 00:33:01Z JUN 25, which serves as general pro-RUF propaganda and aims to glorify military service. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports foreign mercenaries in AFU are not as active as thought, quoting Akhmat commander Apti Alaudinov. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New video from Colonelcassad showing FPV drone strike on UAF pickup truck in Kupyansk vicinity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). TASS reports RUF advancing in Sumy Oblast using small groups to stretch enemy forces, citing Alaudinov. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z shares video titled "Battalion of Maxim Krivonos with Martyn Pushkar's detachment prepares for battles," featuring soldiers who defected to Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Военкор Котенок shares photo message captioned "Dnepropetrovsk/Pokrovske (Krasnoarmeyskoye) (left flank) direction," indicating continued RUF focus on these axes and IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a photo captioned "Paratrooper brotherhood, family," a morale-boosting IO post. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора shared a video (no specific location) of soldiers operating drones for reconnaissance and targeting, with patriotic messages, likely for morale boosting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь shares "Chronicle of the Special Military Operation for June 23." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports FPV drone strikes by "Yug" group destroyed an American M119 howitzer and an ammunition ammunition depot in DNR, aimed at glorifying RUF precision strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). TASS reports RUF forces have pushed through UAF defenses near Kupyansk, with less than 1 km to the city, aimed at glorifying a new tactical success. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified). Воин DV shares video of a "Molniya" loitering munition striking a building with Ukrainian forces, designed to show RUF precision. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). Rybar shares new video on "Liberation of Grigorievka and battles for Verkhnekamenskoye," detailing claimed RUF advances on the Seversk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). Colonelcassad shares video of "Rubikon" unit destroying an ammunition depot near Kolodezi, aimed at demonstrating RUF strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shared a video showing aerial footage of an explosion or strike on an infantry group, aimed at showcasing RUF tactical success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). WarGonzo shared maps detailing claimed RUF advances and active combat zones in Zaporizhzhia, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar directions, for their "Фронтовая сводка на утро 25.06.2025," confirming their continued IO on battlefield successes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF map claims, unverified). Два майора published a video of a tactical drone strike in Zaporizhzhia region, showing a visible explosion within a wooded area, for IO purposes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video appealing for donations for "Paratroopers," indicating IO for internal fundraising and support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad reports on demining operations in Kursk Oblast, which serves as IO to show RUF securing its territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Военкор Котенок shares a photo collage with military imagery, for their informational publication, serving as continued IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Domestic Justification/Internal Security: RUF State Duma is tightening internal controls via legislation regarding military registration and traffic violations, allowing stateless persons to serve in military, and creating a national digital service/messenger. Putin signed a law on blocking financial assets and property of individuals and organizations suspected of involvement in sabotage. Mash на Донбассе's report on the extension of "Phoenix" data verification until November 1st, officially, suggests a continued administrative effort to bolster internal control and information oversight related to the conflict and potentially to increase surveillance. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's video of an alleged mobilized soldier recounting mistreatment and torture, if widely known internally, could damage this narrative, but RUF channels would suppress it. ASTRA reported on the initiative to have war participants teach "traditional values>" in St. Petersburg schools, signaling continued militarization of society. ASTRA also reported on a "repeatedly convicted serviceman beating two girls in Buryatia," possibly impacting domestic morale but largely suppressed by mainstream RUF channels. Kadyrov_95 promoting the "Russia - House of Peoples" forum reinforces internal unity narratives. Kotsnews' claim of "Kyiv holding 32 Kursky residents hostage" aims to frame Ukraine as a malicious actor and justify RUF actions. ASTRA reported on the Russian Supreme Court deeming "Allatra" movement "extremist" and banning it, and legal protocols against Apple/Kinopoisk for "LGBT propaganda," indicating a widening net of internal control. ASTRA also reported on local dissent against political reforms in Altai. AV БогомаZ (Governor of Bryansk Oblast) posted about road network development, which is a subtle form of IO to show government effectiveness despite proximity to conflict. TASS reported FSB's claim of capturing a Ukrainian spy who marked military units, further attributing internal security issues to Ukraine. ASTRA reports Putin signed a law on FSB control over Russian scientists' contacts with foreign colleagues, indicating increased internal security measures related to information control. Новости Москвы reports the State Duma is developing a list of permitted names for children. TASS reports Putin posthumously awarded a train driver for a bridge collapse in Bryansk, subtly attributing a 'heroic' narrative to a potentially hostile incident. TASS reports military commanders gained disciplinary arrest authority, portraying increased control. TASS reports Putin's interest in foreign companies returning to Russia, projecting economic stability. Два майора's message on public chamber discussion indicates RUF's effort to show public engagement. ASTRA reports on a streamer charged with "justifying Nazism" for a fabricated case, indicating ongoing internal crackdowns. НгП раZVедка reports Putin posthumously awarded sergeant Radislav Khugaev the title of Hero of Russia for actions in Mariupol, which serves to boost morale and glorify the war. Операция Z also reports "President awarded the title of Hero of Russia to a SVO fighter from South Ossetia Radislav Khugaev" at 00:32:27Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports an individual accused of attempted murder for throwing a child in Sheremetyevo airport, citing the Investigative Committee, highlighting RUF's focus on domestic criminal investigations, potentially used for internal propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA also reports the Investigative Committee presented charges in the Sheremetyevo case, reinforcing the focus on internal law enforcement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Стрелков Игорь Иванович expresses criticism of RUF's foreign policy on the "Iranian crisis" and Russia's lack of formal support for Iran, indicating dissent within the hardline pro-war community regarding RUF foreign policy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns reported Ukrainian language being excluded from school programs in "new regions" and Crimea by the Ministry of Education, implying a new form of cultural suppression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reported that temporary restrictions on flights at Tambov airport were lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reported the same about Tambov airport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reported on military enlistment offices in Saransk allegedly using threats and alcohol to induce alcoholics and homeless individuals to sign contracts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). MoD Russia's "Top News Today" photo indicates continued control over public messaging. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared photos from readers, which are likely pro-RUF propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Police of Khabarovsk Krai shared photo messages with text about complex, multi-stage fraud schemes starting with data analysis, possibly as public safety announcements. (LOW MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal news). TASS reports investigation into former Russian Deputy Defense Minister Bulgakov for fraud. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports an uncompleted Ukrainian army corps intended for Kharkiv direction was not fully manned, citing security forces. This implies RUF intelligence on UAF force generation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z posted a video requesting thermal imagers for Russian soldiers, which is a form of IO to rally domestic support and highlight the plight of soldiers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares a video of poor living conditions in Yakutia, Russia, which could undermine RUF internal stability narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports police visited "Union of Maoists" activists in Yekaterinburg. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that scammers are offering "jobs" to extort money, as reported by VTB (Russian bank), indicating a domestic concern aimed at public awareness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports that searches are being conducted at the State Secretary of Dagestan, Magomed-Sultan Magomedov, and his relatives, indicating an internal crackdown on corruption or dissent, which could be framed as a domestic success for internal IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports two Moldovan intelligence agents were arrested in Moscow by the FSB, which serves as IO to highlight successful counter-intelligence operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора also confirms the arrest of two Moldovan citizens by the FSB, reinforcing this IO message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Victim Blaming/Mockery: RUF channels continue to mock the devastation caused by RUF strikes and explicitly call for the destruction of Ukrainian cities, normalizing war crimes and genocidal rhetoric. Военкор Котенок's post, expressing the inevitability of war knocking on "every home" and hitting "complacent asses," is a stark example of this aggressive, dehumanizing rhetoric. Alex Parker Returns' derogatory language against Ukrainians ("хохол") and "Parker's axiom" exemplifies dehumanization and victim blaming. «Зона СВО»'s video of the Ukrainian flag falling in Kryvyi Rih aims to mock Ukraine's state. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns explicitly used "шизоидов" (schizoids) to refer to Ukrainians in the context of school education, furthering the dehumanization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). «Зона СВО» shares video of Zelenskyy's speech, with a mocking caption, indicating continued direct targeting of Ukrainian leadership in IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared photos mocking a "funny fake about Yanukovych hanging out in Ibiza," aiming to discredit former Ukrainian leadership or external influence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Global Event Manipulation: RUF channels, like «Зона СВО» and ASTRA, rapidly amplified the fake news about Trump's Nobel Peace Prize nomination for resolving the Iran-Israel conflict, demonstrating a capability to quickly inject distracting or favorable narratives into the global information space. Alex Parker Returns explicitly supported and detailed this fabricated narrative. «Зона СVO» also framed Zelenskyy's address to the Dutch parliament as "threatening Putin," aiming to portray Ukrainian leadership as aggressive. Операция Z (Military Correspondents of Russian Spring) amplified the narrative about "5 NATO countries creating a new 'Iron Curtain'" by mining borders with Russia, pushing a confrontational framing of NATO. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reiterated this narrative. TASS and Alex Parker Returns continued to propagate the fabricated Israel-Iran conflict narrative, including a Congressman moving for Trump's impeachment over it, showing continued rapid IO on this topic. However, TASS later reported that the Israeli Army Chief of Staff stated the campaign against Iran is "not over" (contradicting other RUF IO) and later still reported that Israeli army command has cancelled all restrictions and Iran's airspace is open, indicating a de-escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict. TASS also quoted Peseshkian presenting an Iranian "victory" narrative. This shows rapid adaptation or some inconsistency within RUF IO. ASTRA later reported Iran denied opening its airspace, adding to the fluidity. РБК-Україна's analysis of "Why Iran immediately violated the truce with Israel" suggests Ukraine's active engagement with and analysis of these shifting narratives. TASS reported the US House of Representatives rejecting Trump's impeachment, indicating continued focus on US political dynamics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Europe plans to persuade Trump to sell weapons to Ukraine, indicating active diplomatic efforts to secure continued US support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports US intelligence believes US strikes on Iran did not destroy core components of Iran's nuclear program, which could influence international perceptions of US effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the IAEA stated they do not know where 400 kg of enriched uranium disappeared after US strikes on Iran, implying a potential and significant strategic setback for Iran's nuclear program. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad's comment on IAEA wanting to visit Iranian sites, advising against it, to control the information narrative around Iran's nuclear program. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns' video of the Ukrainian flag in Kryvyi Rih, framed as a "sign," also aims to inject symbolic, possibly superstitious, narratives into the Ukrainian information space. Два майора also shared this. WarGonzo acknowledges Western aid to Ukraine but frames it within a narrative of continued "pumping money" into Ukraine. Операция Z posted a video of Trump discussing his priorities for Ukraine, likely aiming to sow doubt about US support. НгП раZVедка also shared satirical videos of Trump related to the Iran-Israel conflict. Colonelcassad shared multiple videos of a large public gathering in Tehran, supporting "Operation Basharat Fath" and thanking armed forces, implying Iranian "victory" and public support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also shared video of celebrations in Iran, with a clown emoji, indicating Ukrainian skepticism of the "victory" claims. Операция Z also shared multiple videos of large public gatherings in Tehran celebrating "victory over Israel," reinforcing the RUF IO narrative. Kotsnews claims "World media shifted from Ukraine to the East with relief," indicating RUF IO success in diverting attention. РБК-Україна expert analysis reports on how open-source intelligence is used by RUF to target Ukrainian cities, highlighting RUF's adaptive IO/targeting capabilities. Alex Parker Returns published a photo with a caption using derogatory language against Ukrainians and asserting "Parker's axiom," indicating continued use of dehumanizing rhetoric and propaganda. «Зона СВО» (SVO Zone) posted a video portraying the Ukrainian flag being torn from a flagpole by wind in Zelenskyy's hometown, aiming to symbolize Ukraine's weakening state and demoralize. MoD Russia video on signalmen in Kherson region is part of RUF's IO to show control and effectiveness. Военкор Котенок shared a photo with a caption alluding to "new conflicts" being threatened, possibly to frame Russia as under external pressure or to justify further actions. Два майора posted a photo about "Serbs needing to sell shells," indicating RUF IO attempting to influence international arms markets in their favor. Colonelcassad shared new videos of Iran celebrations, explicitly stating the Quds Force commander is alive, aiming to refute counter-IO. Alex Parker Returns also shared similar IO, including claims of Khamenei was present and undetected by Mossad. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Netanyahu's statement that Israel "froze" Iran's nuclear project and will act with the same force against attempts to revive it, aiming to control the narrative on the Middle East. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z's claim of "enemy attacking Kazan and Kherson region" is a form of IO to acknowledge UAF actions while framing them as hostile. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Стрелков Игорь Иванович's critical commentary on RUF's foreign policy on the "Iranian crisis" is a notable instance of internal pro-war dissent within the IO space. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA's video of NATO leaders meeting in The Hague is used by RUF to show awareness of international diplomacy and potentially to counter-message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports US intelligence believes US strikes on Iran did not destroy core components of Iran's nuclear program, amplifying a narrative that undermines US military effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad's comment on IAEA wanting to visit Iranian sites aims to control the information narrative around Iran's nuclear program. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns shared a photo about Yanukovych being seen in the Canary Islands, possibly to mock him or to suggest Ukrainian political figures have abandoned Ukraine, serving as a distraction or internal IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ also shared photo of Yanukovych in Canary Islands, indicating UAF monitoring of this IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns shared a photo indicating "the result was predictable," likely an IO piece reflecting a perceived success, without specific military context, but serving to project control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Военкор Котенок reports White House dissatisfaction with US media publications stating that strikes on June 22 did not destroy Iran's nuclear program, indicating RUF IO attempting to highlight US internal dissent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Nebenzya's statement on Iran's nuclear program indicating RUF IO aligning with Iran's narrative against US/Israel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad's analysis of Chinese ICBM launcher, although not directly related to Ukraine, shows RUF's IO in monitoring global strategic military developments. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна shares videos of the "Atlant AERO" explosion, demonstrating RUF's willingness to report on internal incidents, and potentially use them to justify further actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports on the cost of the Krokus City Hall attack organizers, indicating RUF's continued IO on attributing blame and justifying actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы published a humorous image with no military significance, contributing to normalcy IO. (NO MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE). TASS reports: Erdogan held talks with Trump in The Hague, they discussed Ukraine and the Middle East, indicating RUF monitoring of this high-level diplomatic activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns posted a general IO message "More insights. Be good!", implying influence and control over information. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared videos from readers promoting "From Czechia - with love for Russia: how Jan Jirasko found home and business on Russian soil," which is a soft-power IO piece, highlighting positive narratives of foreigners in Russia. (LOW MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE). RUF claims Iran TV reported WhatsApp will not be unblocked after the war, citing espionage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). RUF claims Iran deporting Afghans, citing them as Israeli recruits. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). BRICS nations expressed deep concern over US/Israel strikes on Iran, calling them a violation of international law. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). BRICS nations stressed need for nuclear-weapon-free zone in Middle East. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports some Israeli officials believe Iran retained small uranium enrichment sites. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared video of a civilian claiming Ukrainian shelling/drone attacks in Nikolsky, Kursk region, resulting in 7 KIA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). ТАСС reports Orban told Zelenskyy not to count on Ukraine's EU accession, as it would immediately drag the community into direct conflict with Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Police of Khabarovsk Krai photo messages on fraud schemes. (LOW MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal news). Colonelcassad's video on "Ukraine Against" destroying railway infrastructure in Poltava indicates RUF's C2 to disseminate specific IO messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS report on NATO summit statement change regarding Ukraine's path to alliance, citing Hungarian FM, is a critical RUF IO piece to highlight divisions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports US confident in peace deal with Iran but will not allow uranium enrichment, signaling RUF's continued monitoring and reporting on geopolitical developments that impact their narrative on Western foreign policy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports US intelligence data leak could discredit Trump and his Middle East policy, which RUF will likely amplify to sow internal US discord. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Zelenskyy was placed far from Trump for photos at the NATO summit, according to C-SPAN. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). TASS reports "The conflict in Ukraine could have ended in 12 days, 'just like Israel's aggression against Iran', if Trump was US President instead of Biden at that time, according to American investor David Sachs. The head of RFPI Dmitriev agreed" at 00:11:01Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports "Trump intends to meet with Zelensky on June 25 at the NATO summit in The Hague, the American newspaper Politico reported" at 00:24:06Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports "Israel threatened Iran over the possibility of disrupting the ceasefire regime" at 00:28:01Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports "Israel threatened Iran over the possibility of disrupting the ceasefire regime" at 00:28:01Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports a US Congressman introduced an impeachment resolution against Trump for his "escalation of the situation in the Middle East." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, contradictory to previous Nobel claims). TASS reports Apti Alaudinov, commander of Akhmat special forces, stated foreign mercenaries in AFU are not as active, which is a new IO point to downplay UAF strength. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New TASS report quoting Bloomberg and Folha de S.Paulo states NATO countries are trying to flatter Trump to secure increased aid to Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Операция Z shares video titled "Battalion of Maxim Krivonos with Martyn Pushkar's detachment prepares for battles," featuring soldiers who defected to Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Trump refused to discuss Canada ambitions, indicating RUF IO on international politics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь shares "Chronicle of the Special Military Operation for June 23," which is a form of RUF IO to provide summaries of their operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports an uncompleted Ukrainian army corps intended for Kharkiv direction was not fully manned, citing security forces. This serves as RUF IO to show UAF force generation weaknesses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Xi Jinping will not attend the BRICS summit in July, which RUF IO could use to portray China's priorities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Басурин о главном shares photos of an elderly man with medals, likely as part of "history" IO to glorify past military figures or events. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The Washington Post reports organizers of the NATO summit are trying to reduce the likelihood of a Trump-Zelensky meeting, which is likely being amplified by RUF IO to sow doubt in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z shared a video with the caption "US will not allow Iran to enrich uranium even in the case of a nuclear deal," featuring an expert Steve Witkoff, indicating continued RUF IO on US-Iran relations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that scammers are offering "jobs" to extort money, as reported by VTB (Russian bank), which is part of RUF's domestic IO on crime. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z reports that US intelligence undermined Trump's "triumph" at the NATO summit, citing NYT, which is an RUF IO narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports the FSB detained two Moldovan intelligence agents, which serves as IO to highlight successful counter-intelligence operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора also confirms the arrest of two Moldovan citizens by the FSB, reinforcing this IO message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:
Ukrainian: Civilian population continues to face extremely high stress due to persistent ballistic missile threats and devastating impacts in urban centers (Dnipro, with 18 dead and 279 wounded, and new report of 20 dead, nearly 300 wounded; Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, with strike on a lyceum and three civilian deaths; and now passenger train damage; Kharkiv, with civilian enterprise hit; Zaporizhzhia with explosions and damage, and 2 wounded, and 9 private homes damaged; Kupyansk with KABs). The extensive damage to civilian infrastructure will further heighten public anger and resolve against RUF, and potentially increase calls for more robust air defense. News of significant international procurement efforts and continued fortification building will provide a morale boost, demonstrating resilience and continued international support. Zelenskiy's direct address to Putin and emphasis on accountability will likely resonate with the public. The prompt and successful fundraising campaigns (e.g., Nikolaevskiy Vanok, now closed) demonstrate strong public support and engagement, boosting morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO's comment on "underperforming today's norm for rusoriz" indicates continued high morale and offensive spirit among UAF, despite challenges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zelenskiy / Official's latest photos aim to reinforce public sentiment of unity and hope. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Oleh Synyehubov's report of a wounded civilian in Kharkiv will further fuel public anger. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ's video of damaged civilian infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia will further impact public sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reported a day of mourning in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating high public impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олександр Вілкул's report of Kryvyi Rih situation being controlled aims to reassure local population. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ's video appealing for help for UAF soldiers may impact public morale by highlighting ongoing needs, but also can galvanize support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shared a video message about "Day of Mourning" in Dnipro, directly impacting public sentiment by recognizing the tragedy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна's report on falling vegetable prices can serve as a morale booster by highlighting domestic economic stability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна's article discussing the war ending in 2025 due to US aid policies and Trump's promises reflects a national debate that could impact public morale based on perceived external support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The PACE call for prisoner exchanges will provide a morale boost to families of POWs and the wider public. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares a video about commemorating war victims, which affects public sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares a photo of military personnel, which can boost morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ shares a photo of a Ukrainian soldier with a flag, for daily commemoration, influencing public sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) shares photos about commemorating fallen Kyiv defenders, which directly impacts morale and public sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports that Europe is losing the space race and how Ukraine can help them catch up to Elon Musk, a potential source of national pride and a morale booster. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Russian: Domestic audiences are being saturated with claims of tactical successes and a controlled narrative of internal stability and robust military support. The continued focus on internal security incidents and new laws serves to reinforce state control and justify actions. The extension of the "Phoenix" data verification period could be framed internally as a measure to protect citizens or enhance national security. The reports of mistreatment of mobilized soldiers (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) and criminal acts by servicemen (ASTRA) could potentially impact morale and willingness to serve if widely known, but RUF's tight information control makes this unlikely to significantly shift public sentiment. ASTRA's report on Saransk military enlistment offices attempting to recruit alcoholics/homeless through threats/alcohol highlights a potentially critical morale and personnel quality issue if widely known internally. The severe weather reports in Moscow (Новости Москвы) could also be a minor morale dampener if it disrupts daily life. The reported local dissent against political reform in Altai (ASTRA) suggests some level of internal opposition, though likely isolated. The news of wedding tours to North Korea and new baby naming laws suggests a bizarre attempt to normalize life amidst war. The discussions on military volunteerism, while intended to boost morale, also reveal underlying problems. Putin's posthumous award to a train driver in Bryansk suggests an effort to control the narrative around incidents and prevent public dissent. The new disciplinary arrest authority for commanders indicates a response to potential morale issues or insubordination within RUF. The posthumous award to a sergeant for Mariupol further aims to boost morale. Стрелков Игорь Иванович's public criticism of RUF foreign policy indicates some internal dissent that could impact morale, especially among hardline pro-war elements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns' reporting on the exclusion of Ukrainian language from school programs in "new regions" and Crimea aims to shape cultural identity and national morale in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad's video glorifying RUF stormtroopers likely aims to boost morale within military units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's post about "paratrooper brotherhood" is a typical morale-boosting message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad's video of civilian testimony on alleged Ukrainian shelling in Kursk region, if believed, would solidify anti-Ukrainian sentiment and support for the war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The investigation into former Deputy Defense Minister Bulgakov for fraud could affect public trust in the military leadership if mishandled. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z posted a video requesting thermal imagers for Russian soldiers, indicating their ongoing reliance on public donations, which could potentially impact morale if these needs are not met by the state. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares a video of poor living conditions in Yakutia, Russia, which, if widely disseminated, could negatively impact public morale by highlighting internal problems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports police visited "Union of Maoists" activists in Yekaterinburg. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that scammers are offering "jobs" to extort money, as reported by VTB, which could impact public trust and economic morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports that searches are being conducted at the State Secretary of Dagestan, Magomed-Sultan Magomedov, and his relatives, potentially impacting public trust in local government. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports two Moldovan intelligence agents were arrested in Moscow by the FSB, which can boost public confidence in internal security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's video appealing for donations for "Paratroopers" highlights specific equipment needs for RUF units, which, if not met by the state, can negatively impact morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's video showing a drone strike on Russian personnel at night, if seen by Russian public, could negatively affect morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:
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