Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues to claim "liberation" of Perebudova and control over Dyleyevka, describing it as a "powerful fortified area" on the approaches to Konstantinovka, allowing "fire control" over UAF logistics. "Операция Z" published video claiming "Dyleevka is under our control," showing a heavily damaged building with Russian flags. The UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) continues to report active clashes near Dyliyivka (Toretsk direction) and Pokrovsk direction (Promin, Novotoretske, Myrolubivka, Lysivka, Novoukrayinka, Novoserhiyivka, Udachne, Myrnohrad, Oleksiyivka, Popiv Yar, Malynivka, Koptyevye and towards Shakhove, Volodymyrivka, Molodetske, Serhiyivka, Novopavlivka), confirming active combat in these claimed areas. Rybar indicates RUF successes near Konstantinovka. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports UAF Special Operations Forces destroyed a Russian assault group on the Pokrovsk direction. "Сливочный каприз" (Creamy Caprice) shared a photo captioned "24.06.25 Chasov Yar - Shevchenko" (likely Chasiv Yar area), indicating continued RUF focus on these critical sectors. Два майора published video from Konstantinovka direction, Yablonovka, showing drone strikes on enemy positions and assault actions by RUF soldiers. STERNENKO shared drone footage with the 'MOLOT' logo indicating Russian origin, showing a residential area in Donetsk Oblast with significant damage and an explosion, suggesting continued RUF strikes on civilian infrastructure within contested zones. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 shared video of "BLACK SKY" unit of 3rd Separate Presidential Brigade "Spartan" striking RUF forces in western outskirts of Novoserhiivka, implying active UAF defense/counter-attack. "Сливочный каприз" also shared new photo captioned "24.06.25 Krasnoarmeysk - Novoekonomicheskoe" (Pokrovsk direction) and a video with "Rubicon" and MoD Russia logos showing a drone strike on a vehicle, which they claim caused a "200" (KIA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on Perebudova, Dyleyevka; UAF confirms active combat; LOW CONFIDENCE – independent verification of RUF control over these settlements and the tactical implications for Konstantinovka; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Rybar's claim, requires verification; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF successful action reported by Butusov Plus; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - "Сливочный каприз" photo, indicates activity in Chasiv Yar direction; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Два майора video of combat in Konstantinovka direction; HIGH CONFIDENCE - STERNENKO drone footage, indicates RUF strikes; HIGH CONFIDENCE - DeepState video of UAF strikes; HIGH CONFIDENCE - "Сливочный каприз" new photo/video).
• Luhansk Oblast: RUF sources continue to claim the "liberation" of Petrovske (Hrekivka), asserting that "LNR is completely liberated." The UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports clashes yesterday near Tverdokhlibove, Ridkodub, Karpivka, Kolodyazi and towards Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyny, Novyi Myr, Olhivka (Lyman direction), indicating active combat in the broader area of Hrekivka/Petrovske. Оперативний ЗСУ (Operational ZSU) reports the 3rd Assault Brigade is pushing occupiers out near Ridkodub. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shared video titled "The Third Assault is knocking out the occupiers in the area of Ridkodub!" Николаевский Ванёк also reports the 3rd Assault Brigade is "knockings out occupiers" near Ridkodub. Басурин (Basurin) claims RUF confidently advancing on Krasnolimansk direction with video of artillery fire. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared video of destruction of an enemy Grad MLRS system in Lyman direction, Donetsk Oblast by a UAV. Colonelcassad and Военкор Котенок posted aerial footage of the Serebryanskoye forestry, describing it as modern combat zone with "fiber optic cables" from FPV drones, indicating intense drone warfare in this sector. Оперативний ЗСУ also shared video of Serebryanskoye forest, describing it as "legendary" and "covered in fiber optics from drones," confirming intense drone warfare in this sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on Petrovske/Hrekivka, UAF confirms active combat; LOW CONFIDENCE – verification of RUF control over Petrovske/Hrekivka; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report of counter-action and supporting video; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Basurin's claim, unverified; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Colonelcassad/Voenkor Kotenok reports on Serebryanskoye forestry, indicating active combat and high drone usage; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF video of Grad destruction; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Оперативний ЗСУ video on Serebryanskoye forest).
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): RUF launched ballistic missiles against Dnipro city. Updated reports from UAF official sources and local administration (Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Олександр Вілкул) confirm an increase in casualties: 17 dead (РБК-Україна, Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), ASTRA) and 279 wounded, including 27 children (РБК-Україна, citing OMA). Оперативний ЗСУ states 15 dead and over 200 injured, citing OMA. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports four explosions in Dnipropetrovsk industrial zone, likely Iskander. RUF sources claim a "powerful strike" was made against a "locomotive repair plant in Dnipropetrovsk," framing it as a strike on UAF logistics. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (Paratrooper's Diary) claimed RUF forces hit a "rocket and armored vehicle production plant" in Dnipropetrovsk. Zelenskiy / Official also shared video of a damaged passenger train, indicating a direct hit on railway infrastructure. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration) explicitly states the passenger train "Odesa - Zaporizhzhia" was damaged. РБК-Україна reports an expert called the strike a "targeted attack or psychological terror," aimed at hitting moving objects like trains, making them difficult to intercept. Олексій Білошицький (Deputy Head of Patrol Police Department) shared videos showing police officers providing first aid to an individual in a car accident in Dnipro, indicating continued civilian emergency response after the strike. While not directly military, this indicates the ongoing disruption to civilian life and the need for public services due to RUF attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF/Independent sources on impacts and casualties, including the increase to 17 KIA and 279 wounded; HIGH CONFIDENCE – Civilian targeting; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on specific military target within Dnipro, requires BDA; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Damage to passenger train confirmed; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Poddubny reporting on Iskander use; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claim on missile/armored vehicle plant, requires BDA; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Оперативний ЗСУ casualty update; HIGH CONFIDENCE - РБК-Україна expert analysis; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Олексій Білошицький video, shows civilian impact and response). Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reported continued enemy attacks on Nikopol region, specifically Nikopol, Marhanets, Myrove, Chervonohryhorivka, Pokrovsk communities, with associated damage photos. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAV threat in Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Sumy Oblast: The UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) explicitly reports UAF forces repelled 10 RUF assaults yesterday in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, confirming active combat and persistent RUF pressure in the border region. A new map from Z комитет + карта СВО on the Sumy direction (June 13-23, 2025) highlights territorial changes. STERNENKO shared video of defensive positions in Sumy region. Kotsnews reports on "the first report on the advance of the Russian Armed Forces in Sumy Oblast." Air Force of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued new alerts for KAB launches on Sumy Oblast at 18:22Z and 18:31Z, indicating continued RUF aerial activity. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports a destroyed Abrams tank in Sumy Oblast due to Lancet. STERNENKO also shared video of "Wings to Hell" (UAF drone unit) destroying a "Buryat samurai" (RUF soldier) with a tactical net in Sumy Oblast. Старше Эдды (Starshe Eddy) published an "Exclusive. First report from the 'buffer zone' in Sumy Oblast," including multiple photos depicting a rural road, damaged houses, and debris, aiming to validate RUF claims of presence. Николаевский Ванёк reports a collection for transport for drone operators of 421st Separate UAV Battalion "Sapsan" on the Sumy direction. STERNENKO reports on "drone safety" (implying UAF drone activity or RUF air defense focus) in Kursk, Lipetsk, Belgorod, Saratov, Voronezh, Tambov, and Penza Oblasts. Игорь Артамонов (Governor, Lipetsk Oblast) reported "UAV threat cancelled" (Отбой красного уровня «Угроза атаки БПЛА»), indicating recent UAF drone activity and RUF AD response in Lipetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF repelled assaults in Sumy/Kursk; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claim of "buffer zone" in Sumy, active combat confirmed; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF defensive preparations in Sumy, RUF KAB strikes in Sumy; LOW CONFIDENCE - Abrams destruction claim, unverified; HIGH CONFIDENCE - STERNENKO drone footage; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Starshe Eddy reporting and photos, intent is to confirm RUF presence; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Mykolaiv Vanok's report on UAF drone unit transport collection; HIGH CONFIDENCE - STERNENKO drone safety report; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Igor Artamonov's update; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Air Force of Ukraine KAB alerts). Оперативний ЗСУ shared a video showing FPV drone activity in Sumy Oblast over deceased RUF personnel, indicating ongoing UAF drone operations and confirmed RUF casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAVs in Sumy Oblast, moving southwest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Kharkiv Oblast: UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Ozerne, Mala Vovcha of Kharkiv region. Clashes yesterday near Dvorichna, Hlyboke, Vovchanski Khutory, Krasne Pershe and Fyholivka (South Slobozhansky direction) and near Kindrashivka, Kruhlyakivka and towards Pischane, Petropavlivka (Kupyansk direction). MoD Russia published video of Grad MLRS strike near the border in Kharkiv region. Привид Хортиці (Ghost of Khortytsia) shared video of UAF drone operations targeting enemy positions and a boat in Slobozhanshchyna, demonstrating UAF counter-action capabilities. Colonelcassad shared video claiming destruction of an enemy UAV control point in Kharkiv Oblast (likely a UAF asset). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shared video of 3rd Separate Tank "Iron" Brigade destroying RUF forces, captioned "These are our heavens, this is our land!", and a new FPV drone video targeting an RUF UAZ vehicle ("bukhanka"), showing an explosion, fire, and personnel attempting to evade. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports on RUF airstrikes and clashes; HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF MLRS activity in Kharkiv; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF drone operations in Kharkiv; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim of UAV control point destruction; HIGH CONFIDENCE - ОТУ "Харків" videos). New KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in eastern Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z shared video claiming "Thunder" (RUF drone unit) burning enemy equipment near Kupyansk. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). New alert for several groups of UAVs in eastern Kharkiv Oblast heading west. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Novoselivka, Mala Tokmachka of Zaporizhzhia region. UAF Air Force reports activity of RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration is scaling up protection for Defense Forces by constructing new anti-drone tunnels for logistics routes. Air Force of Ukraine reports missile danger and KAB launches in Zaporizhzhia. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued an alert for ballistic missile threat from the southern direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared video of 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade operators downing a Russian "Orlan-30" reconnaissance UAV near Zaporizhzhia with an FPV drone. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration) reports RUF conducted an airstrike on one of the settlements in Polohy district. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also shared photos of housing restoration in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shared photos of graduation ceremonies at Komyshuvakha Gymnasium "Dzherelo", indicating civilian life continues despite war. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shared a photo postcard titled "Melitopol is Ukraine," indicating continued focus on occupied territories. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posted a photo with the caption "Zaporozhye direction," implying continued RUF focus or operations in this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official reports on AD alerts; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF counter-UAV action and supporting video; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Zaporizhzhia OMA on airstrike; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Zaporizhzhia OMA on housing restoration; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Zaporizhzhia OMA on graduation ceremony; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Zaporizhzhia OMA on Melitopol; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo). Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition claimed a British mercenary was killed near Mali Shcherbaky during a UAF attempt to recapture the area, with the mercenary's mother blaming Ukrainian commanders for a "suicidal mission." (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, requires verification). New KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash na Donbasse reports part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast without power due to UAF strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAV in Zaporizhzhia Oblast heading towards Dnipropetrovsk (Synelnykivskyi district). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAV from the south heading towards Zaporizhzhia city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Kherson Oblast: UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 6 Russian army assaults in the Kherson direction. "Два майора" shared video of FPV drone and UAV-KT combat work by 127th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade in Kherson direction, showing a struck truck and artillery piece. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reported that RUF began to disconnect mobile internet in the occupied part of Kherson Oblast, citing residents. Николаевский Ванёк reports UAF "tigers" captured another prisoner on the left bank of Kherson Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (Paratrooper's Diary) shared a photo/map of the "Kherson direction," likely indicating ongoing RUF interest or operations in the area. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shared a video claiming the "Espanyola" special forces marine detachment thwarted UAF landing plans on Crimea, showing a burning building. MoD Russia released video showing signalmen of the 49th Army, Dnepr Group of Forces, in Kherson region, indicating RUF continues to emphasize C2 and combat operations in this sector. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА also shared video of an FPV drone, possibly from the Kherson direction, showing a vehicle moving in low-light, implying continued drone operations. ТАСС reports Saldo (RUF-appointed governor) states AFU conducting massive attack by aircraft-type UAVs on Kherson Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official report; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF combat footage, unverified BDA by UAF; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF reporting on RUF internet shutdown; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF capture of prisoner; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo/map of Kherson direction, indicating continued RUF focus; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА video, unverified BDA, likely propaganda; HIGH CONFIDENCE - MoD Russia video on Kherson; HIGH CONFIDENCE - АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА new video; HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS report on Kherson UAV attack). Операция Z shared video captioned "The enemy is attacking Kazan and Kherson region," with visuals that appear to be a title card, providing no direct battle damage assessment, but indicating RUF acknowledgement of attacks on Kherson region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF acknowledgement). Два майора is conducting a "collection for Kherson direction" likely for material support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Odesa Oblast: STERNENKO reports that Vasya Lomachenko is upset due to the Russian strike on a lyceum in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF reporting on strike). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports that three employees were killed in the strike on the lyceum in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, confirming civilian casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also named the three killed employees in the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi strike, further confirming civilian casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued new alert for "Several groups of UAVs in the Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast," indicating active aerial threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New report of 14 UAVs in the Black Sea, and two of them north of Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, heading towards Odesa Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports 2 UAVs were shot down near Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAVs heading towards Odesa Oblast (Sarata). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAVs from Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast (Vylkove). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Other Axes (UAF General Staff Reports):
  • Siversk direction: Clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka.
  • Kramatorsk direction: Clashes yesterday near Novomarkove, Chasiv Yar and towards Mykolayivka, Stupochok, Pryvillya, Bondarne. "Сливочный каприз" (Creamy Caprice) shared a photo captioned "24.06.25 Chasov Yar - Shevchenko" (likely Chasiv Yar area), indicating continued RUF focus on these critical sectors.
  • Novopavlivka direction: Clashes yesterday near Bahatyr, Novosilka, Zaporizhzhya, Perebudova, Komar, Myrne, Shevchenko, Vilne Pole and towards Voskresenka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - "Сливочный каприз" photo, indicates activity in Chasiv Yar direction). UAF General Staff provided an operational update for 22:00 24.06.2025, detailing ongoing clashes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RF Territory (Various Regions): ASTRA and RUF MoD via TASS claimed Russian air defense forces destroyed 34 Ukrainian UAVs over various regions of Russia, with TASS specifically claiming 18 UAVs shot down in three hours. TASS later updated this, claiming 22 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over various regions of Russia in 3.5 hours (also reported by ASTRA). Igor Artamonov (Governor, Lipetsk Oblast) reports a UAV threat in Usmansky and Dobrinsky districts, now "cancelled." Оперативний ЗСУ shared photos claiming 8 RUF oil depots after drone attacks by UAV forces. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows video of a RUF soldier killed by UAF drone. РБК-Україна reports RUF has dropped almost 100 bombs on its own and occupied territories since the beginning of the year. STERNENKO shared video of "Novem Group" destroying RUF logistics in Kursk Oblast, showing a vehicle (likely an ATV) hit by a drone with subsequent explosions and fire. ТАСС reports "Aeroflot" is adjusting flight schedules to Kazan, Samara, and Saratov due to restrictions, indicating possible security concerns or air traffic control issues in these regions. ASTRA confirms "Aeroflot" flight adjustments, further solidifying this information. AV БогомаZ (Governor, Bryansk Oblast) reports "Over the territory of Bryansk Oblast, air defense forces of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation detected and destroyed an aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicle." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). AV БогомаZ (Governor of Bryansk Oblast) posted photos about road network development in Bryansk Oblast, including discussions on road safety, which may be relevant to logistics given its proximity to the border. Colonelcassad reports that Putin posthumously awarded the Order of Courage to Pavel Mishin, a train driver killed in a bridge collapse in Bryansk Oblast, indicating a recent incident potentially related to UAF activity or internal sabotage that RUF attributes to 'selfless' actions.** ASTRA reports 8 UAVs shot down in Ulyanovsk Oblast with internet restricted in the region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims, RUF internal reporting on UAV threats; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF claims on oil depot strikes; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF combat footage; HIGH CONFIDENCE - RBC-Ukraine report on RUF dropping bombs on own territory; HIGH CONFIDENCE - STERNENKO video of strike on RUF logistics in Kursk; HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS/ASTRA reports on Aeroflot flight adjustments; HIGH CONFIDENCE - AV БогомаZ post on road development; HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS updated UAV claims; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Igor Artamonov's update; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Colonelcassad report on Bryansk incident; HIGH CONFIDENCE - ASTRA on Ulyanovsk UAVs). Рыбарь shares video message captioned "Organization and conduct of an ambush on enemy transport." (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Rybar video, unverified BDA). ASTRA reported on a new initiative in St. Petersburg where "participants of the war with Ukraine will instill 'traditional values' in schoolchildren," indicating further militarization of Russian society. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kotsnews claimed "Kyiv continues to hold 32 Kursky residents hostage." (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified). Новости Москвы (News of Moscow) shared videos of heavy rain and strong winds in Moscow, indicating severe weather conditions that could impact air operations or ground movement if sustained. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (Military Correspondents of Russian Spring) posted video of aftermath of an alleged enemy attempt to destroy "Espanyola" marine detachment. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified). STERNENKO shared photos captioned "Interesting fact 1," but image analysis could not identify military context. (NO MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE). Alex Parker Returns shared video of Ukrainian flag in Kryvyi Rih, depicting it as a "sign" related to Zelenskyy. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, symbolic). Alex Parker Returns and TASS reported on Republican Congressman Buddy Carter nominating Trump for Nobel Peace Prize for Israel-Iran ceasefire. Alex Parker Returns explicitly claimed "Iran announced victory over Israel." TASS also reported on another Congressman, Green, moving for Trump's impeachment for strikes on Iran, indicating continued rapid IO on Israel-Iran. ТАСС now reports that Israeli army command has cancelled all restrictions for the population, indicating a de-escalation of the Israel-Iran situation, further confirming the rapid shift in narrative. ASTRA also reports Ben Gurion Airport returning to full operation. Военкор Котенок also reports Iran preparing to open airspace and Israeli airports returning to normal, reinforcing the de-escalation. ТАСС reports that Peseshkian, in an address to the Iranian people, stated Israel failed to achieve its goals and paid "a terrible price" for aggression against Iran, presenting a new Iranian victory narrative. Colonelcassad reports Iran will continue uranium enrichment despite damages, stating it's a red line. ТАСС reported on the US House of Representatives rejecting the impeachment procedure against Trump, indicating the shifting political narrative. ASTRA reports Iran denied opening its airspace, conflicting with previous reports, indicating further fluidity in the IO on the Israel-Iran conflict. Colonelcassad shared new video of a large public gathering in Tehran celebrating "victory" over Israel, and explicitly stated that the allegedly killed Quds Force commander, Ismail Qaani, is alive and present, demonstrating RUF's efforts to refute counter-IO. Alex Parker Returns shared similar video, stating Khamenei was present and undetected by Mossad. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO on Middle East/Trump; HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS report on Israeli Army Chief of Staff, contradicting RUF IO; HIGH CONFIDENCE - RBC-Ukraine critical analysis of Middle East events; HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS/ASTRA/Voenkor Kotenok on de-escalation in Israel; HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS on Iranian "victory" narrative; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Colonelcassad on Iran's nuclear program; HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS on Trump impeachment rejection; HIGH CONFIDENCE - ASTRA on Iran airspace denial; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Colonelcassad/Alex Parker Returns new videos on Iran celebrations). ASTRA reported on Russian court deeming "Allatra" movement "extremist." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reported on legal protocols against Apple and Kinopoisk for "LGBT propaganda." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Fighterbomber posted a photo/video titled "tactical analysis," but the content was an empty caption, thus no military significance. (NO MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reported on a Russian Yamal LNG tanker filled with gas in Rotterdam. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы reports Russia has launched wedding tours to North Korea for 350,000 rubles, reflecting an unusual internal news item. Новости Москвы also reports the State Duma is developing a list of permitted names for children. (LOW MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal news). НгП раZVедка shared videos of Donald Trump with a satirical caption about Iran and Israel, indicating continued RUF IO on US politics and global events. Colonelcassad shared multiple videos of a large public gathering in Tehran, supporting "Operation Basharat Fath" and thanking armed forces, implying Iranian "victory" and public support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also shared video of celebrations in Iran, with a clown emoji, indicating Ukrainian skepticism of the "victory" claims. Операция Z also shared multiple videos of large public gatherings in Tehran celebrating "victory over Israel," reinforcing the RUF IO narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF/Ukrainian IO on Iran). TASS reports Lavrov arrived in Turkmenistan, indicating continued Russian diplomatic activity in Central Asia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports arrest of "Rostovvodokanal" director in Rostov region, indicating RUF internal corruption/crackdown. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports Ukrainian "Naftogaz" sent "Gazprom" official demand for $1.37bn payment, indicating ongoing legal/economic disputes. Alex Parker Returns amplified this, with derogatory language against Ukrainians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Филолог в засаде reports a meeting on military volunteerism in Russia, and shares video of a female volunteer discussing problems, indicating challenges in RUF volunteer support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kotsnews reports world media shifted from Ukraine to the Middle East, indicating RUF IO success in diversion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared video of a Russian DRG ambush on a vehicle with Ukrainian servicemen, claiming success, indicating continued RUF special operations and IO efforts. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on an alleged mobilized Russian soldier describing mistreatment, torture, and being ordered to abandon wounded, raising serious concerns about RUF internal discipline and human rights. ASTRA reports on a streamer who fabricated a case for a negative review being charged with "justifying Nazism," indicating continued RUF crackdown on perceived dissent or "extremism." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports on tariffs in Domodedovo airport being planned before ownership change, indicating normal administrative activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора mentions a "Military reform 2026. Cycle of the Children of Arbat," which may refer to future military reforms. (LOW CONFIDENCE - unclear meaning). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shared a video of three individuals in military gear with a Serbian-Russian flag, requesting night/day reconnaissance drones and communication means for a "storm airborne regiment," implying foreign fighters or groups with strong pro-Russian affiliation and specific equipment needs. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports a UAV threat declared in Saratov Oblast, indicating continued UAF deep strike activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports four UAVs destroyed over Tatarstan, confirming UAF deep strike activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Игорь Артамонов (Governor, Lipetsk Oblast) reports "yellow threat level cancelled," indicating a de-escalation of a previous threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Europe plans to persuade Trump to sell weapons to Ukraine, indicating continued diplomatic efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Lukashenko and Putin discussed Ukraine and Middle East, indicating high-level coordination. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Стрелков Игорь Иванович expresses concern about the "Iranian crisis" and Russia's lack of formal support for Iran, indicating dissent within the hardline pro-war community regarding RUF foreign policy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports restrictions on Penza airport extended until 00:00 MSK 25 June, indicating continued disruption due to UAV threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports PACE called on Russia to create a mechanism for permanent exchange of prisoners with Ukraine, highlighting international pressure on RUF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns reported Ukrainian language being excluded from school programs in "new regions" and Crimea, implying a new form of cultural suppression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports US intelligence believes US strikes on Iran did not destroy core components of Iran's nuclear program. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad commented on IAEA's urgent request to visit sites struck by US/Israel in Iran, advising against it to maintain the narrative of destruction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reported on military enlistment offices in Saransk allegedly using threats and alcohol to induce alcoholics and homeless individuals to sign contracts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO commented on "underperforming today's norm" for "rusoriz" (killing Russians), indicating UAF's operational tempo and dark humor. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posted about "paratrooper brotherhood, family," likely a morale post. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports an explosion at "Atlant AERO" factory in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, Russia, after an alleged "arrival." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares video of aftermath of strikes on "Radiozavod" in Kyiv, showing damaged vehicles and ongoing fires, attempting to verify RUF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports successful strike on Bolkhov Semiconductor Device Plant (BZNP) on May 21, with three hits on semiconductor production buildings and one on a mechanical shop. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Военкор Котенок reports White House dissatisfaction with US media publications stating that strikes on June 22 did not destroy Iran's nuclear program, indicating US counter-IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь shares a photo message with no decipherable caption (AI limitations). (NO MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE). Colonelcassad shared multiple photos of a Chinese 80-ton HTF5980 mobile ICBM launcher "Dongfeng-41" with a range of up to 15,000 km, in new "wood texture" camouflage, indicating Chinese strategic military developments. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Chinese military; NO DIRECT MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE for Ukraine, but relevant for global strategic context). ТАСС reports Nebenzya stating US/Israel actions against Iran's nuclear facilities are a dangerous infringement on NPT authority and Iran's right to peaceful nuclear energy, indicating RUF support for Iran. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). «Зона СВО» shares photos of "Akhmat" special forces commander, glorifying him. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of Ukrainian F-16 shooting down a Shahed, demonstrating UAF air defense capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports on "anti-Ukrainian hysteria" in Hungarian MFA related to a poll on Ukraine's EU membership, indicating diplomatic tensions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Russia proposed updated UN Security Council resolution for sustainable ceasefire in Middle East. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы reports registration open for Night Cycling Festival in Moscow, reflecting normal civilian life in Russia. (NO MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE). «Зона СВО» shares video of Zelenskyy's speech, attempting to mock him or portray him negatively. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared video of a large explosion in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, Russia, at "Atlant AERO" factory, confirming a significant event in RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports explosion at "Atlant AERO" factory in Taganrog after an alleged "arrival." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports restrictions on receiving/releasing aircraft at Saratov airport lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports: In the port of Azov, Rostov region, the roof of a grain warehouse was damaged by UAV debris, according to Slyusar. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports: An air attack is being repelled in Rostov region. UAVs were shot down in Taganrog, Azov, and Rodionovo-Nesvetay district, Slyusar said. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Poltava Oblast: New alert for UAV towards Poltava city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Pavlohrad Oblast (Dnipropetrovsk region): New alert for UAV from the east towards Pavlohrad city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

• Air Force of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, indicating suitable weather for tactical aviation. Colonelcassad's animated strike map shows widespread missile/drone activity across Ukraine for 23-24 JUN, indicating suitable conditions for air operations. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued an alert for ballistic missile threat from the southern direction, and a new alert for missile danger in Sumy Oblast, but later issued a "threat cancelled" alert. Новости Москвы (News of Moscow) reports heavy rain and strong winds up to 15 m/s in Moscow today and tomorrow (24-25 JUN), which could potentially impact RUF operations if the weather extends to border regions, but is more likely localized to central Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора's video from Kryvyi Rih shows a Ukrainian flag waving on a flagpole against a cloudy sky, suggesting typical summer weather or passing fronts, not severe conditions. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Environmental context). New video from ASTRA shows a street scene in Saratov, Russia, at night, under clear weather, during an air raid siren. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS' video of explosion in Taganrog shows clear night conditions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна's videos of the "Atlant AERO" explosion also show clear night conditions, suitable for drone operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New TASS report on a fire at "Forte Arena" stadium in Taganrog due to UAV fall, describes damaged roof of 30 sq. m and a destroyed wall, indicating the extent of damage and clear conditions for drone operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF):
  • Ground Forces: UAF maintains active defensive operations across multiple axes, repelling assaults in Sumy/Kursk, Kherson, and engaging in clashes in Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka directions. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration is actively constructing anti-drone tunnels to protect logistics. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the 3rd Assault Brigade is pushing occupiers out near Ridkodub (Lyman direction). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provided video evidence of the 3rd Assault Brigade's successful operations near Ridkodub. Николаевский Ванёк also posted video of the 3rd Assault Brigade "knockings out occupiers" near Ridkodub. РБК-Україна also shared video of the 3rd Assault Brigade counterattacking in the east, destroying an RUF platoon. Привид Хортиці (Ghost of Khortytsia) showcases UAF drone operations in Slobozhanshchyna (Kharkiv/Sumy), destroying enemy positions and a boat. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of UAF Special Operations Forces destroying a Russian assault group on the Pokrovsk direction, including drone footage of the combat. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared video of 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade operators downing a Russian "Orlan-30" reconnaissance UAV near Zaporizhzhia with an FPV drone, demonstrating effective counter-UAV capabilities. STERNENKO shared video of "Wings to Hell" (UAF drone unit) destroying an RUF soldier in Sumy Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ also shared video of 24th Separate Assault Battalion "Aidar" thanking supporters for a vehicle, indicating continued material support for UAF units. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared video of a UAV destroying a RUF Grad MLRS on Lyman direction. Николаевский Ванёк reports UAF "tigers" captured a prisoner on the left bank of Kherson Oblast. STERNENKO also provided video of "Novem Group" destroying RUF logistics in Kursk Oblast, demonstrating UAF deep strike capabilities into RF territory. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shared photos related to military medics and their importance, indicating continued focus on combat casualty care. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shared a video featuring Ukrainian military personnel operating a "Shark" reconnaissance UAV, highlighting their use of advanced systems for intelligence gathering and target acquisition. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shared video of 3rd Separate Tank "Iron" Brigade destroying RUF forces, and a new FPV drone video targeting an RUF UAZ vehicle ("bukhanka"). ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 shared video of "BLACK SKY" unit of 3rd Separate Presidential Brigade "Spartan" striking RUF forces in western outskirts of Novoserhiivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ's latest video from Sumy Oblast showing FPV drone activity over RUF casualties confirms UAF's continued engagement and effectiveness in this sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Staff provided an operational update for 22:00 24.06.2025, detailing ongoing clashes and defensive operations across various axes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO's comment about "underperforming today's norm for rusoriz" indicates continued UAF offensive pressure and high morale, even if tactical gains are not meeting internal targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shared a photo of a Ukrainian soldier in camouflage with a weapon and what appears to be a military vehicle, captioned with sarcastic appreciation for the RUF soldier's "shroud," indicating UAF operations leading to RUF casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Air Defense (AD): UAF Air Force continues to provide real-time warnings of RUF missile and KAB threats (Sumy, Donetsk Oblast, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Pavlohrad), including reports of activity of enemy tactical aviation on the southeastern direction. UAF AD is engaged in intercepting RUF attacks, but the volume of RUF strikes continues to cause significant civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, particularly from ballistic missiles (Dnipro, Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi). UAF Air Force reports active RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and tactical aviation activity on the northeast direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reported 28,743 Shahed drones used by Russia since the full-scale invasion, with 2,736 in June alone, as stated by Zelenskyy, highlighting the scale of the AD challenge. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued a ballistic missile threat alert from the southern direction, and a new missile threat for Sumy Oblast, but then issued a "threat cancelled" alert. РБК-Україна reports an expert called the strike a "targeted attack or psychological terror," aimed at hitting moving objects like trains, making them difficult to intercept. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued an alert for "Several groups of UAVs in the Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast," indicating ongoing AD posture for aerial threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAVs in Sumy Oblast, moving southwest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAVs heading towards Odesa Oblast, specifically Ovidipol/Chernomorsk, with 14 drones in the Black Sea, and 2 north of Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports 2 UAVs were shot down near Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast heading towards Dnipropetrovsk (Synelnykivskyi district), and UAVs in Odesa Oblast (Sarata). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video shows Ukrainian F-16 shooting down a Shahed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for several groups of UAVs in eastern Kharkiv Oblast heading west. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAV towards Poltava city and Pavlohrad city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports on general "moped" (UAV) activity, indicating ongoing air defense concerns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAV from the south heading towards Zaporizhzhia city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Russia is attacking Ukraine with drones from different directions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Deep Strike Capability: UAF continues to conduct drone strikes deep into RF territory, as evidenced by RUF claims of intercepting 34 UAVs and UAF claims of hitting 8 oil depots. TASS claims 22 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over various regions of Russia in 3.5 hours, also reported by ASTRA. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows UAF drone operations resulting in RUF KIA. РБК-Україна reports RUF has dropped almost 100 bombs on its own and occupied territories since the beginning of the year, likely due to technical failures/friendly fire or a lack of precision, which benefits UAF operations. STERNENKO's video of "Novem Group" destroying RUF logistics in Kursk Oblast further demonstrates UAF's effective cross-border deep strike capability. STERNENKO's report on "drone safety" in multiple RF oblasts further highlights UAF's continued deep strike capability. ASTRA reports 8 UAVs shot down in Ulyanovsk Oblast. TASS reports a UAV threat declared in Saratov Oblast, and four UAVs destroyed over Tatarstan, further confirming UAF deep strike capabilities into RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New air raid siren in Saratov and Engels, likely due to UAF UAV activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports successful strike on Bolkhov Semiconductor Device Plant (BZNP) on May 21. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports explosion at "Atlant AERO" factory in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports explosion at "Atlant AERO" factory in Taganrog after an alleged "arrival." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports UAV debris damaged roof of a stadium and a grain warehouse in Rostov Oblast; UAVs shot down in Taganrog, Azov, and Rodionovo-Nesvetay district, confirming UAF deep strike activity in Rostov Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Information Operations (IO): Ukrainian channels (РБК-Україна, Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration, Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Zelenskiy / Official, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Олександр Вілкул, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація)) continue to provide immediate assessments and photographic/video evidence of RUF attacks and their consequences, highlighting civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure (Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa), including damages to a passenger train in Dnipro, with updated casualty counts for Dnipro (now 17 KIA, 279 wounded). Zelenskiy / Official also shared video and photos of his address to the Senate and House of Representatives of the Netherlands parliament, stating "the main target of Russian attacks is life itself," and warning that "Russia is planning hostile and potentially destructive operations on NATO territory," demonstrating high-level diplomatic engagement and warning. Zelenskiy / Official explicitly stated "For Putin, there is a rule 'Do not kill.' There is a rule 'Do not act like a non-human with people.' There is a rule 'Do not burn cities and villages.' There is also a rule 'Do not justify or sponsor terror.' There is a rule 'Do not steal children.' And if you violate such rules, there must be responsibility," directly addressing Putin. Zelenskiy / Official also highlighted the scale of Shahed attacks (28,743 since full-scale invasion, 2,736 in June), emphasizing the need for partner support. Zelenskiy / Official stated "Russia is stronger than any of us individually, but it is weaker than all of us together," emphasizing unity and a strategy to limit RUF capabilities. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also shared the same photos of Zelenskyy's address, indicating a coordinated IO message emphasizing NATO and EU unity. «Зона СВО» (SVO Zone) and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reported on Zelenskyy's address to the Dutch House of Representatives, where "Зона СВО" characterized his speech as "threatening Putin." Олександр Вілкул shared photos of the "LEGENDARY 3rd SEPARATE ASSAULT BRIGADE," indicating UAF IO highlighting specific effective units. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared video of Zelenskyy disembarking from an aircraft, likely related to his diplomatic engagements. Оперативний ЗСУ shared photos of Zelenskyy discussing expanding air fleet with Mirages and co-production of interceptor drones with Macron, indicating strategic IO on advanced military capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна also reported on the potential meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy during the NATO summit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reported on Ukraine's military-industrial complex potential of over $35 billion, but highlighted underfunding and the need for partial arms export, indicating a focus on long-term self-sufficiency. STERNENKO shared photos/posts on "interesting fact 1" and Trump's Nobel Peace Prize nomination, reflecting UAF monitoring of RUF IO. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shared photos of housing restoration in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, signaling resilience and rebuilding efforts, as well as a graduation ceremony at a local gymnasium. Олександр Вілкул's briefing on the day's results from Kryvyi Rih indicates continued local leadership in managing military and civilian efforts. РБК-Україна reports on a "special operation to evacuate citizens from Iran," demonstrating Ukraine's capability to conduct complex diplomatic/logistical operations in potentially hostile environments. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on a "critically important microelectronic enterprise" in Russia stopping work, which Ukraine highlights as a positive impact on RUF military production. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS mocked the Iranian "victory" celebrations with a clown emoji, indicating Ukrainian skepticism of the "victory" claims. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shared a postcard titled "Melitopol is Ukraine," reflecting focus on occupied territories. ASTRA reports Ukrainian "Naftogaz" sent "Gazprom" official demand for $1.37bn payment, which is also a form of IO highlighting RUF's obligations. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (CyberFlour) posted a "short explanation why Russians started hitting civilians even more calmly," indicating UAF analysis and public messaging on RUF targeting. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (Stirlitz) shared a video requesting support for "warriors," indicating continued grassroots fundraising for UAF. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reported that Gen. Alexus Grinkevich, nominated for NATO command, believes Ukraine can win, indicating UAF IO leveraging external support/opinions. РБК-Україна quotes Sikorski (Poland) on Europe needing to be stronger than Russia, aligning with UAF messaging on collective strength. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Europe plans to persuade Trump to sell weapons to Ukraine, indicating UAF awareness of ongoing diplomatic efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports civilian casualties in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi strike, highlighting RUF war crimes and civilian impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS named the civilian casualties in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, reinforcing RUF war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports PACE called on Russia to create a mechanism for permanent exchange of prisoners with Ukraine, highlighting UAF IO on prisoner exchanges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO's comment on "underperforming today's norm for rusoriz" signals UAF's continued resolve and active offensive operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ reports Trump agreed to meet Zelenskyy at NATO summit on June 25, citing Politico. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports successful strike on Bolkhov Semiconductor Device Plant (BZNP) on May 21, indicating UAF IO highlighting strikes on RUF military-industrial complex. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shared a photo of a Ukrainian soldier after a combat engagement, mocking RUF casualties, indicating continued UAF IO on tactical successes and RUF losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also shared photos of Zelenskyy meeting Macron, discussing increasing supply of Mirage fighters and joint production of interceptor drones to strengthen protection of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Russian Forces (RUF):
  • Ground Operations: RUF MoD claims "liberation" of Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast). RUF continues to claim "mopping up" Dyleyevka (Donetsk Oblast) and "complete liberation" of Petrovske/Hrekivka (Luhansk Oblast). "Операция Z" published video claiming "Dyleevka is under our control." Операция Z also posted new drone footage of a military operation, showing hits on an "enemy vehicle," "BMP," and "firing position/shelter," with text overlays indicating destruction of enemy forces, likely from an ongoing offensive operation. Kotsnews reports on RUF advance in Sumy. UAF General Staff confirms active clashes in these areas, indicating RUF intent to advance and consolidate. Persistent RUF assaults continue in Sumy/Kursk and Kherson directions. WarGonzo shows aerial footage of destroyed residential areas, claiming "Somalis demolish houses with AFU members inside," indicating continued destructive operations against UAF positions. MoD Russia shows Grad MLRS strike in Kharkiv as part of "buffer zone" creation. MoD Russia also shared new video with caption "Continue destroying enemy defences," showing aerial reconnaissance footage of explosions and destructive events in forested and populated areas, indicating ongoing combat actions by "Sever, Yug, and Tsentr Group of Forces." Басурин (Basurin) claims RUF confidently advancing on Krasnolimansk direction with video of artillery. Рыбарь shares video message captioned "Organization and conduct of an ambush on enemy transport." Воин DV shared video of 29th Army "continuing to shell nearby forest belts in the Yalta area (likely Novopavlivka direction, Yalta settlement), claiming rapid advance due to concentration of firepower. Воин DV also shared video claiming their "Kaira" UAV squadron of the 39th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade destroyed a UAF T-72 tank (with a "Balkenkreuz" marking), an ATV, and a vehicle with personnel. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (Paratrooper's Diary) shared photos with the caption "Delivery to the front!", showing soldiers (likely RUF) loading supplies onto an ATV, suggesting forward logistical support in a combat zone. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also shared a video showing a group of soldiers in a temporary living space, highlighting rudimentary frontline conditions. Старше Эдды (Starshe Eddy) published an "Exclusive. First report from the 'buffer zone' in Sumy Oblast," showing rural roads and damaged houses, supporting RUF claims of presence in the region. Два майора published video from Konstantinovka direction, Yablonovka, showing drone strikes on enemy positions and assault actions by RUF soldiers, including FABs. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posted a satellite/aerial map of "Kherson direction" with overlaid markings, suggesting an ongoing RUF tactical interest or operational planning in that area. Воин DV posted new video claiming an operator of the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade hit a vehicle and a group of "хлопчиков" (likely UAF soldiers) in Karl Marx (Mirne) area with a drone, showing a thermal image of a strike, suggesting continued precision targeting by RUF SOF. Colonelcassad shared video of a Russian DRG ambush on a vehicle with Ukrainian servicemen, showing gunfire and a vehicle on fire, indicating continued special operations tactics. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 shared video showing Russian flags on targeted positions in Novoserhiivka, confirming RUF presence. "Сливочный каприз" also shared new photo captioned "24.06.25 Krasnoarmeysk - Novoekonomicheskoe" (Pokrovsk direction) and a video with "Rubicon" and MoD Russia logos showing a drone strike on a vehicle, which they claim caused a "200" (KIA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims and UAF confirmation of active combat; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Basurin video; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Rybar video, unverified BDA; HIGH CONFIDENCE - MoD Russia video evidence of destruction, though specific targets and BDA are unverified; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Воин DV video and claims, unverified; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photos, indicates RUF forward logistics; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Starshe Eddy photos, intent is to confirm RUF presence; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Два майора video; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 map of Kherson direction; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Воин DV new video, suggests precision strike; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video of soldiers; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Операция Z new video; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Colonelcassad DRG ambush video; HIGH CONFIDENCE - DeepState video; HIGH CONFIDENCE - "Сливочный каприз" new photo/video). UAF General Staff provided an operational update for 22:00 24.06.2025, detailing ongoing RUF ground assaults. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared a video showing soldiers in a destroyed urban environment, indicating ongoing assault operations. The commander mentions being from "Shturm V" unit and serving since 2014, highlighting long-term experience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора posted a video of three individuals in military attire, with weapons, with a "collection for Kherson direction," indicating RUF efforts to support their forces in this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). «Зона СВО» shares photos of "Akhmat" special forces commander, glorifying him and showcasing the unit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z shares video claiming "Thunder" (RUF drone unit) burning enemy equipment near Kupyansk. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad posted a collection of photos alleging "mercenaries destroyed by Russian forces." (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified). WarGonzo shared a video of a Ukrainian flag in Kryvyi Rih becoming distorted by wind, likely to symbolize weakness or decline. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO).
  • Artillery/Air Strikes: RUF employed ballistic missiles (claimed 4 Iskanders) on Dnipro, causing significant civilian infrastructure damage and casualties (now 17 dead, 279 wounded), including a passenger train. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports four explosions in Dnipropetrovsk industrial zone, likely Iskander. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claimed RUF forces hit a "rocket and armored vehicle production plant" in Dnipropetrovsk. RUF aviation continues airstrikes in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia (KABs), Sumy (KABs), and Odesa Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued new alerts for KAB launches on Sumy Oblast at 18:22Z and 18:31Z, indicating continued RUF aerial activity. MoD Russia shows Grad MLRS activity in Kharkiv. "Два майора" shows combat work of 127th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade FPV drones in Kherson direction, striking a truck and artillery. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА claims Abrams destroyed by Lancet in Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad provides an animated map of RUF strikes on Ukraine, 23-24 JUN. Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reported continued enemy attacks on Nikopol region, including residential buildings, infrastructure, and an agricultural enterprise. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration) reports RUF conducted an airstrike on one of the settlements in Polohy district. Операция Z (Military Correspondents of Russian Spring) posted video of aftermath of an alleged enemy attempt to destroy "Espanyola" marine detachment, showing damaged buildings. Басурин о главном posted a video showing a rocket launch at night, likely an RUF missile or rocket system launch, indicating continued strike capabilities. STERNENKO shared drone footage with the 'MOLOT' logo indicating Russian origin, showing a residential area in Donetsk Oblast with significant damage and an explosion, suggesting continued RUF strikes on civilian infrastructure within contested zones. ТАСС reports Saldo states AFU conducting massive attack by aircraft-type UAVs on Kherson Oblast. ASTRA reports 8 UAVs shot down in Ulyanovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF reports on strikes, RUF claims on specific targets/munition types; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Civilian targeting; LOW CONFIDENCE - Abrams destruction claim, unverified, and a new Colonelcassad video shows an M-60 Patton being towed in Kyiv, not an Abrams, suggesting RUF misidentification or IO; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Poddubny Iskander report; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claim, requires BDA; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Dnipropetrovsk ODA reporting; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Zaporizhzhia OMA on airstrike; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Операция Z video, unverified BDA; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Basurin video of rocket launch; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Air Force of Ukraine KAB alerts; HIGH CONFIDENCE - STERNENKO drone footage; HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS report on Kherson UAV attack; HIGH CONFIDENCE - ASTRA on Ulyanovsk UAVs). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports three civilian casualties in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi lyceum strike, confirming RUF targeting of civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also named the three killed employees in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued an alert for UAVs heading towards Odesa Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports a UAV threat declared in Saratov Oblast, and four UAVs destroyed over Tatarstan, indicating continued UAF deep strike activity on RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Игорь Артамонов (Governor, Lipetsk Oblast) reports "yellow threat level cancelled," indicating a de-escalation of a previous threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in eastern Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New air raid siren in Saratov and Engels (RF territory) due to UAV threat, confirming continued UAF deep strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash na Donbasse reports part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast without power due to UAF strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares video of aftermath of strikes on "Radiozavod" in Kyiv, showing damaged vehicles and ongoing fires, confirming RUF strikes on targets in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports explosion at "Atlant AERO" factory in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, Russia, after an alleged "arrival." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports explosion at "Atlant AERO" factory in Taganrog after an alleged "arrival." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports restrictions on receiving/releasing aircraft at Saratov airport lifted, likely after UAF UAV activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAV towards Poltava city and Pavlohrad city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports UAV debris damaged roof of a stadium and a grain warehouse in Rostov Oblast; UAVs shot down in Taganrog, Azov, and Rodionovo-Nesvetay district, confirming RUF AD activity against UAF deep strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Internal Security Operations: RUF State Duma is tightening internal controls via legislation regarding military registration and traffic violations, allowing stateless persons to serve in military, and creating a national digital service/messenger. Putin signed a law on blocking financial assets and property of individuals and organizations suspected of involvement in sabotage. Mash на Донбассе reports that the data verification period for "Phoenix" (presumably a telecommunications or data service) has been extended until November 1, officially. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shared a video of an alleged mobilized Russian soldier recounting experiences of mistreatment, torture, and threats by Russian forces, including being beaten and threatened for refusing to kill, and witnessing deaths due to torture. This suggests internal disciplinary and human rights issues within RUF. ASTRA reported on a new initiative in St. Petersburg where "participants of the war with Ukraine will instill 'traditional values'" in schoolchildren, indicating further militarization of Russian society and youth indoctrination. АSTRA also reports on a "repeatedly convicted serviceman beating two girls in Buryatia," suggesting a breakdown in internal discipline and a rise in criminality among RUF personnel. Kadyrov_95 shared video of the "All-Russian Forum 'Russia - House of Peoples'" in Grozny, promoting interethnic unity and traditional values, indicating continued soft power efforts and internal consolidation. ASTRA reported on Russian Supreme Court deeming "Allatra" movement "extremist" and banning it in RF. ASTRA also reported legal protocols against Apple and Kinopoisk for "LGBT propaganda," with threats of fines or suspension. ASTRA also reports on a local political reform in Altai that local residents opposed, indicating some internal dissent, though likely suppressed. TASS reports that FSB has stated that Ukrainian spy Yulian Belokon, convicted in DNR, marked places on a map with military units of the RF Armed Forces, indicating continued counter-intelligence operations and attribution of espionage to Ukraine. ASTRA reports Putin signed a law on FSB control over Russian scientists' contacts with foreign colleagues, indicating increased internal security measures related to information control. Новости Москвы reports the State Duma is developing a list of permitted names for children. TASS reports Putin posthumously awarded the Order of Courage to Pavel Mishin, a train driver killed in a bridge collapse in Bryansk Oblast, indicating a recent incident potentially linked to UAF activity or internal sabotage. TASS reports that commanders of military units have gained the right to impose disciplinary arrest on servicemen for gross misconduct during the 'special operation,' indicating a further tightening of internal discipline within RUF. ASTRA reports on a streamer who fabricated a case for a negative review being charged with "justifying Nazism," which is part of Russia's wider internal crackdown on perceived dissent or "extremism." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting on legislation and administrative control; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Butusov Plus video, unverified testimony, but consistent with other reports of RUF internal discipline issues; HIGH CONFIDENCE - ASTRA reporting on youth indoctrination; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - ASTRA on serviceman criminality; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Kadyrov video, internal consolidation; HIGH CONFIDENCE - ASTRA on Allatra ban; HIGH CONFIDENCE - ASTRA on Apple/Kinopoisk legal action; HIGH CONFIDENCE - ASTRA on Altai political reform; HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS on FSB spy capture; HIGH CONFIDENCE - ASTRA on FSB control over scientists; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Новости Москвы on children's names; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Colonelcassad on Bryansk incident; HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS on disciplinary arrest; HIGH CONFIDENCE - ASTRA on streamer charge). TASS reports arrest of "Rostovvodokanal" director in Rostov region, indicating potential anti-corruption efforts or internal power struggles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Филолог в засаде reports on a meeting about military volunteerism, highlighting challenges faced by Russian volunteers, which can impact internal support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Putin has tasked the government to consider proposals from Russian businesses on the conditions for foreign companies to return to Russia, indicating a potential shift in economic policy to encourage foreign investment, which could indirectly support the war economy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS). Два майора published a message about the importance of a certain issue being raised at a public chamber meeting, indicating continued RUF focus on public engagement and internal discourse. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Lukashenko and Putin held a phone conversation, indicating continued high-level coordination between RF and Belarus. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора mentions "Military reform 2026," suggesting future internal military developments. (LOW CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка reports Putin posthumously awarded sergeant Radislav Khugaev the title of Hero of Russia for actions in Mariupol, which serves to boost morale and glorify soldiers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports an individual accused of attempted murder for throwing a child in Sheremetyevo airport, citing the Investigative Committee, highlighting RUF's focus on domestic criminal investigations, potentially used for internal propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA also reports the Investigative Committee presented charges in the Sheremetyevo case, reinforcing the focus on internal law enforcement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Стрелков Игорь Иванович expresses criticism of RUF's foreign policy on the "Iranian crisis" and Russia's lack of formal support for Iran, indicating dissent within the hardline pro-war community regarding RUF foreign policy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns reported Ukrainian language being excluded from school programs in "new regions" and Crimea by the Ministry of Education, indicating cultural suppression and assimilation policies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reported that temporary restrictions on flights at Tambov airport were lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reported the same about Tambov airport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reported on military enlistment offices in Saransk allegedly using threats and alcohol to induce alcoholics and homeless individuals to sign contracts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). MoD Russia's "Top News Today" photo indicates continued control over public messaging. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared photos from readers, which are likely pro-RUF propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Information Operations (IO): RUF channels (TASS, Colonelcassad, Basurin, Poddubny, WarGonzo, Операция Z, MoD Russia, Два майора, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Новости Москвы, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, Alex Parker Returns, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Z комитет + карта СВО, Kotsnews, Воин DV, «Зона СВО», Mash на Донбассе, Рыбарь, Старше Эдды, Военкор Котенок, Kadyrov_95, AV БогомаZ, Fighterbomber, Басурин о главном, НгП раZVедка) continue to aggressively disseminate claims of tactical successes and amplify domestic narratives. Два майора promotes "Radio Sputnik" as a source where "everything becomes clear," indicating a continued effort to push state-controlled narratives. «Зона СВО» and ASTRA quickly picked up on a fake news story about Trump's Nobel Peace Prize nomination for resolving the Iran-Israel conflict, demonstrating rapid amplification of potentially distracting narratives. Alex Parker Returns explicitly stated "In Iran, celebrations began on the occasion of the victory over Israel," and then claimed "The bulldozer of American politics nominated himself for the Nobel Peace Prize" for achieving a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, further cementing the fabricated narrative. «Зона СВО» also characterized Zelenskyy's address to the Dutch parliament as "threatening Putin," framing UAF leadership as aggressive. Военкор Котенок posted a highly aggressive, genocidal-sounding message, stating "Reality, called war, will definitely knock on the door of every house... And the boomerang of war will hit the complacent asses and carefree necks even harder," indicating escalating dehumanization and calls for retribution. The rapid shift in the Israel-Iran narrative from immediate conflict to "resolved" (by Trump) by RUF channels, and then counter-narratives by TASS (impeachment, Israeli Army Chief of Staff's statement, de-escalation confirmed), highlights extreme agility and manipulation of global events for internal and external consumption. Alex Parker Returns' video of the Ukrainian flag in Kryvyi Rih also reflects subtle IO tactics aimed at internal Ukrainian morale or superstitions. Два майора also shared this. WarGonzo published a photo/text "Europe will continue to inject money into Ukraine: results of the first day of the NATO summit," acknowledging Western support but likely spinning it negatively. Операция Z posted a video of Trump discussing his priorities for Ukraine, likely aiming to sow doubt about US support. НгП раZVедка also shared satirical videos of Trump related to the Iran-Israel conflict. Colonelcassad shared multiple videos of a large public gathering in Tehran, supporting "Operation Basharat Fath" and thanking armed forces, implying Iranian "victory" and public support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also shared video of celebrations in Iran, with a clown emoji, indicating Ukrainian skepticism of the "victory" claims. Операция Z also shared multiple videos of large public gatherings in Tehran celebrating "victory over Israel," reinforcing the RUF IO narrative. Kotsnews claims "World media shifted from Ukraine to the East with relief," reflecting RUF's perception of IO success. РБК-Україна expert analysis reports on how open-source intelligence is used by RUF to target Ukrainian cities, highlighting RUF's adaptive IO/targeting capabilities. Alex Parker Returns published a photo with a caption using derogatory language against Ukrainians and asserting "Parker's axiom," indicating continued use of dehumanizing rhetoric and propaganda. «Зона СВО» (SVO Zone) posted a video portraying the Ukrainian flag being torn from a flagpole by wind in Zelenskyy's hometown, aiming to symbolize Ukraine's weakening state and demoralize. MoD Russia video on signalmen in Kherson region is part of RUF's IO to show control and effectiveness. Военкор Котенок shared a photo with a caption alluding to "new conflicts" being threatened, possibly to frame Russia as under external pressure or to justify further actions. Два майора posted a photo about "Serbs needing to sell shells," indicating RUF IO attempting to influence international arms trade narratives for their benefit. Colonelcassad shared new videos confirming the alleged Quds Force commander is alive and present at celebrations, aiming to refute counter-IO. Alex Parker Returns also shared similar IO, including claims of Khamenei's presence undetected by Mossad. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Netanyahu's statement that Israel "froze" Iran's nuclear project and will act with the same force against attempts to revive it, aiming to control the narrative on the Middle East. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z's claim of "enemy attacking Kazan and Kherson region" is a form of IO to acknowledge UAF actions while framing them as hostile. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Стрелков Игорь Иванович's critical commentary on RUF's foreign policy on the "Iranian crisis" is a notable instance of internal pro-war dissent within the IO space. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns reported Ukrainian language being excluded from school programs in "new regions" and Crimea, using the term "хохлов" (derogatory for Ukrainians), signaling a new wave of cultural suppression and IO against Ukrainian identity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns explicitly used "шизоидов" (schizoids) to refer to Ukrainians in the context of school education, further emphasizing dehumanization in IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The video of NATO leaders by ASTRA is likely monitored and analyzed by RUF for IO purposes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора's video of the "Espanyola" special forces marine detachment operating from a mobile command post aims to project RUF naval special operations capability and control in Crimea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z amplified CNN's report that US strikes did not destroy Iran's nuclear program, reinforcing the narrative of US/Israel ineffectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad commented on IAEA wanting to visit Iranian sites, advising against it, to control the narrative about the effectiveness of strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA's report on military enlistment offices in Saransk using unethical tactics highlights a dark side of RUF recruitment, which if widely disseminated could damage RUF's public image and recruitment efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's post about "paratrooper brotherhood" is a typical morale-boosting IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). MoD Russia's "Top News Today" photo indicates continued control over public messaging and narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Военкор Котенок reports White House dissatisfaction with US media publications stating that strikes on June 22 did not destroy Iran's nuclear program, indicating RUF IO attempting to highlight US internal dissent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Nebenzya stating US/Israel actions against Iran's nuclear facilities are a dangerous infringement on NPT authority and Iran's right to peaceful nuclear energy, indicating RUF IO aligning with Iran's narrative against US/Israel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). «Зона СВО» shares photos of "Akhmat" special forces commander, as part of glorification and recruitment IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы reports registration open for Night Cycling Festival in Moscow, projecting normalcy and stability. (NO MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE). «Зона СВО» shares video of Zelenskyy's speech, with a mocking caption, indicating continued direct targeting of Ukrainian leadership in IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). «Зона СВО» shares a "good night" photo, a rare instance of non-military related IO, likely to project normalcy or build community. (NO MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE). РБК-Україна shares videos of the "Atlant AERO" explosion, indicating RUF monitoring of UAF deep strikes against RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports on the cost of the Krokus City Hall attack organizers, indicating RUF's continued IO on attributing blame and justifying actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы published a humorous image with no military significance, contributing to normalcy IO. (NO MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE). TASS reports: Erdogan held talks with Trump in The Hague, they discussed Ukraine and the Middle East. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns posted a photo with a caption "More insights. Be good!" - appears to be general pro-RUF IO without specific military content. (LOW MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE). Colonelcassad shared videos from readers promoting "From Czechia - with love for Russia: how Jan Jirasko found home and business on Russian soil," which is a soft-power IO piece, highlighting positive narratives of foreigners in Russia. (LOW MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE).

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Immediate and independent verification of RUF claims regarding confirmed capture of Dyleyevka, Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast) and Petrovske/Hrekivka (Luhansk Oblast). Assess tactical implications of any confirmed RUF gains in these areas, particularly regarding control over UAF logistics routes to Konstantinovka. Verify Rybar's claims of "successes near Konstantinovka" and Basurin's claims of RUF advance on Krasnolimansk direction. Verify Воин DV's claims of 29th Army rapid advance near Yalta and the claimed hits by 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade in Karl Marx (Mirne). Verify Два майора's specific claims and BDA in Konstantinovka direction, Yablonovka. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
• CRITICAL: Verify the extent and intent of RUF ground activity in Sumy Oblast, particularly the claims of an "advance" and "buffer zone" by Kotsnews and Старше Эдды. Coupled with KAB strikes and 10 repelled assaults, this indicates potential for intensified ground operations beyond just probing. Determine specific locations of RUF incursions, force size, and intent (raids, limited occupation, or shaping for larger offensive). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Conduct comprehensive BDA on all recent RUF ballistic missile, KAB, and UAV strikes, especially in Dnipro and Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi (Odesa Oblast). Verify specific targets (e.g., railway station area, schools, hospitals, residential buildings, train line) and damage assessment, and confirm munition types (e.g., Iskander, KAB variants). Specifically, verify RUF claim of "locomotive repair plant" strike in Dnipro and the extent of damage to the passenger train. Confirm the use of Iskander missiles in Dnipro as reported by Poddubny, and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's claim of hitting a "rocket and armored vehicle production plant." Verify claimed strikes on "Radiozavod" in Kyiv. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA teams, IMINT, OSINT).
• HIGH: Monitor RUF internal security operations (e.g., FSB arrests in Zaporizhzhia, serviceman investigation in Bashkortostan, Kherson resident arrest, blocking assets of saboteurs, the serviceman beating women in Buryatia, FSB arresting Ukrainian spy Yulian Belokon, FSB control over scientists' contacts with foreigners, Putin's posthumous award in Bryansk, disciplinary arrest authority for commanders, the streamer charged with "justifying Nazism," the Sheremetyevo airport incident investigation, the Allatra ban, Apple/Kinopoisk legal action, Altai political reform, Rostovvodokanal director arrest, Bryansk Oblast UAV destruction) and new legislation (military registration, traffic control, stateless persons in military, national messenger, asset blocking, film censorship, "foreign agent" laws, Russian language law, parental consent for bank accounts, utility payment deadline, federal budget changes, and the extension of data verification period for "Phoenix", and development of allowed names for children, and the meeting on military volunteerism, foreign companies return to Russia, "Military reform 2026", exclusion of Ukrainian language from school programs). Analyze the intent behind publicizing such operations and laws, particularly concerning potential false-flag preparations or justifications for internal repression and mobilization. Also monitor recruitment for "African Corps" and volunteer tenders, and expansion of military-patriotic clubs and university military training centers, and the new "traditional values" initiative in St. Petersburg. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT). Investigate the claims of mistreatment/torture of mobilized soldiers within RUF, as reported by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, to assess internal morale and discipline. Investigate claims of military enlistment offices using threats/alcohol to induce contracts in Saransk. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, OSINT). Investigate the claims of a "storm airborne regiment" with Serbian-Russian flag seeking drones and comms (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺).
• HIGH: Verify the specific targets and BDA of the "Rubikon" BLA strikes reported by RUF in Donetsk/Kherson directions, specifically the claimed ammunition depot and the truck/artillery piece. Also verify the RUF claim of destroying a UAF UAV control point in Kharkiv Oblast and the claim of Abrams destruction by Lancet in Sumy Oblast, and Воин DV's claim of destroying a UAF T-72 tank, ATV, and vehicle with personnel, and their new claimed hits in Karl Marx (Mirne). Clarify the identity of the tank in Colonelcassad's video to ascertain if it is indeed an Abrams or another type. Verify Colonelcassad's claim of a Russian DRG ambush on a vehicle with Ukrainian servicemen. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT).
• HIGH: Assess the impact of RUF dropping nearly 100 bombs on its own and occupied territories since the start of the year. Determine if this indicates systemic issues with RUF aerial munitions or a deliberate strategy. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT).
• HIGH: Conduct BDA on the UAF strike reported by Mash na Donbasse causing power outage in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT).
• HIGH: Verify the UAF strike on Bolkhov Semiconductor Device Plant (BZNP) on May 21, and the explosion at "Atlant AERO" factory in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, Russia. Assess the impact on RUF military production. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT).
• MEDIUM: Obtain more information on the reported missile strike on the "Espanyola" marine base in Crimea. Determine if they are results of UAF strikes, internal sabotage, or accidents, to inform future planning. Also, assess the significance of Rybar's report on UAF activation in Black Sea/Crimea area, and the specific details of "Organization and conduct of an ambush on enemy transport" video. Assess the implications of RUF shutting down mobile internet in occupied Kherson Oblast. Investigate the cause and implications of Aeroflot flight adjustments to Kazan, Samara, and Saratov, Penza, and the UAV threats in Saratov and Tatarstan, and the lifting of restrictions at Tambov airport. Investigate the alleged UAV attack and damage at "Forte Arena" stadium and grain warehouse in Rostov Oblast. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT, SIGINT).
• LOW: Investigate RUF claims of "Kyiv holding 32 Kursky residents hostage." (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Ground Capabilities: RUF continues to demonstrate capability for localized ground advances, particularly on the Donetsk axis, aiming to seize key UAF strongholds and logistical nodes (e.g., Dyleyevka, Perebudova near Konstantinovka, Krasnolimansk direction, Chasiv Yar direction). "Операция Z" video on Dyleyevka indicates active combat to secure and hold claimed positions. Операция Z also posted new drone footage showing hits on an "enemy vehicle," "BMP," and "firing position/shelter," confirming ongoing offensive actions and target types. The UAF General Staff reports of 10 repelled assaults in Sumy/Kursk, and the Kotsnews report on RUF "advance" in Sumy, and the Старше Эдды "buffer zone" report, confirm persistent RUF ground pressure and capability in the north, even if no major breakthrough has occurred. RUF continues destructive operations against UAF positions, as evidenced by WarGonzo's footage and MoD Russia's MLRS strikes, and new MoD Russia video showing combat actions by multiple Groups of Forces, including explosions in forested and populated areas. New RUF footage ("Rubicon," "Два майора," Воин DV, MoD Russia, Рыбарь) demonstrates sustained FPV drone and UAV-KT combat work, targeting UAF logistics (ammunition depots, trucks), artillery pieces, and now including claimed strikes on UAF UAV control points and claimed Abrams destruction, as well as a UAF T-72 tank, ATV, and vehicle with personnel (claimed by Воин DV). Воин DV's claims of 29th Army's rapid advance near Yalta due to concentrated firepower suggest specific areas of tactical focus and resource allocation. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's photos showing supply delivery to the "front" and video of soldiers' living conditions indicate active forward logistical operations and the harsh conditions.** Два майора's video from Konstantinovka direction showcasing drone strikes and FABs indicates combined-arms tactical adaptations for assault operations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's new map of the "Kherson direction" indicates continued RUF tactical planning or operations in the area. Воин DV's new video of a precision drone strike by 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade further highlights RUF's use of SOF and drones for targeted strikes against personnel/vehicles. Colonelcassad shared video of a Russian DRG ambush on a vehicle with Ukrainian servicemen, showing gunfire and a vehicle on fire, indicating continued special operations tactics. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shared new FPV drone footage showing a vehicle moving in low-light, implying continued drone reconnaissance or strike capabilities. "Сливочный каприз" new video with "Rubicon" logo confirms continued drone use and claimed destruction of a vehicle. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's video of "storm airborne regiment" seeking drones confirms a desire to enhance ground unit capabilities with UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad's video of RUF stormtroopers in urban combat environment confirms ongoing assault capabilities and unit morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора's collection for Kherson direction indicates ongoing RUF ground operations and resource needs in that area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). «Зона СВО» shares photos of "Akhmat" special forces commander, glorifying him and showcasing the unit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z shares video claiming "Thunder" (RUF drone unit) burning enemy equipment near Kupyansk. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad posted a collection of photos alleging "mercenaries destroyed by Russian forces," a common RUF IO tactic. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified).
• Artillery/Air Capabilities: RUF executed a mass-casualty ballistic missile strike on Dnipro using at least four Iskander-M missiles, causing 17 KIA and 279 wounded, damaging numerous schools, a hospital, and a passenger train. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claimed RUF hit a "rocket and armored vehicle production plant" in Dnipropetrovsk, demonstrating a continued focus on military-industrial targets within urban areas. RUF aviation continues airstrikes in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia (KABs), Sumy (KABs), and Odesa Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued new alerts for KAB launches on Sumy Oblast at 18:22Z and 18:31Z, indicating continued RUF aerial activity. MoD Russia shows Grad MLRS activity in Kharkiv. "Два майора" shows combat work of 127th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade FPV drones in Kherson direction, striking a truck and artillery. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА claims Abrams destroyed by Lancet in Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad provides an animated map of RUF strikes on Ukraine, 23-24 JUN. Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reported continued enemy attacks on Nikopol region, including residential buildings, infrastructure, and an agricultural enterprise, highlighting ongoing artillery/drone pressure on civilian areas. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration) reports RUF conducted an airstrike on one of the settlements in Polohy district. Операция Z (Military Correspondents of Russian Spring) posted video of aftermath of an alleged enemy attempt to destroy "Espanyola" marine detachment, demonstrating continued naval targeting or defensive actions. Басурин о главном posted a video showing a rocket launch, indicating continued RUF long-range strike capabilities. STERNENKO shared drone footage with the 'MOLOT' logo indicating Russian origin, showing a residential area in Donetsk Oblast with significant damage and an explosion, suggesting continued RUF strikes on civilian infrastructure within contested zones. ТАСС reports Saldo states AFU conducting massive attack by aircraft-type UAVs on Kherson Oblast, indicating RUF is also on the receiving end of UAV attacks. ASTRA reports 8 UAVs shot down in Ulyanovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports three civilian casualties in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi lyceum strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also named the three killed employees in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued an alert for UAVs heading towards Odesa Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports a UAV threat declared in Saratov Oblast, and four UAVs destroyed over Tatarstan, indicating continued UAF deep strike activity on RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in eastern Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New air raid siren in Saratov and Engels (RF territory) due to UAV threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares video of aftermath of strikes on "Radiozavod" in Kyiv, showing damaged vehicles and ongoing fires, confirming RUF strikes on targets in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports explosion at "Atlant AERO" factory in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, Russia, after an alleged "arrival." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports explosion at "Atlant AERO" factory in Taganrog after an alleged "arrival." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports restrictions on receiving/releasing aircraft at Saratov airport lifted, indicating a response to UAF UAV activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAV towards Poltava city and Pavlohrad city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports UAV debris damaged roof of a stadium and a grain warehouse in Rostov Oblast; UAVs shot down in Taganrog, Azov, and Rodionovo-Nesvetay district, confirming RUF AD activity against UAF deep strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Information Warfare Capabilities: RUF's IO remains highly agile and adaptive, rapidly amplifying claims of tactical gains (Dyleyevka, Petrovske/Hrekivka, Sumy "buffer zone", Perebudova, "successes near Konstantinovka," Krasnolimansk), domestic issues, and attempting to project control by claiming "buffer zones" in Ukraine. They continue to use disinformation to justify internal crackdowns and maintain public support, and are actively shaping narratives around international events. The extension of "Phoenix" data verification suggests ongoing efforts to control information flow and monitor digital communications within occupied territories or Russia itself. The quick amplification of the fake Trump Nobel Prize nomination by pro-RUF channels demonstrates their willingness to spread distracting, unsubstantiated narratives. Alex Parker Returns' explicit claims about Iran's "victory" over Israel and Trump's Nobel nomination reinforce this. The dehumanizing rhetoric directed at Zelenskyy ("гнида") by "Зона СВО" and the genocidal rhetoric from Военкор Котенок ("Reality, called war, will definitely knock on the door of every house...") indicates continued efforts to delegitimize Ukrainian leadership and incite violence. The rapid shift in the Israel-Iran narrative from immediate conflict to "resolved" (by Trump) by RUF channels, and then counter-narratives by TASS (impeachment, Israeli Army Chief of Staff's statement, de-escalation confirmed), highlights extreme agility and manipulation of global events for internal and external consumption. Alex Parker Returns' video of the Ukrainian flag in Kryvyi Rih also reflects subtle IO tactics aimed at internal Ukrainian morale or superstitions. Два майора also shared this. RUF is also actively working to suppress certain information domestically, as seen with the "Allatra" ban and legal actions against Apple/Kinopoisk for "LGBT propaganda," indicating broader societal control efforts, as well as the suppression of local dissent in Altai. The formal claim by FSB (via TASS) of capturing a Ukrainian spy who marked military units indicates RUF's ongoing effort to attribute internal security incidents to Ukraine. Putin signing a law on FSB control over scientists' contacts suggests increasing paranoia and information control. The reports of wedding tours to North Korea and new baby naming laws, while seemingly minor, demonstrate RUF's efforts to project normalcy and cultural control. The arrest of the "Rostovvodokanal" director in Rostov region could indicate internal issues impacting civilian infrastructure that could have secondary effects on logistics. Kotsnews claiming the world media shifted from Ukraine to the East with relief highlights RUF's self-perception of IO success. The discussions on military volunteerism in Russia (Филолог в засаде) suggest an ongoing effort to address logistical and support challenges for the war effort from civilian sources. Alex Parker Returns' use of derogatory language against Ukrainians and "Parker's axiom" confirms continued dehumanization and propaganda. «Зона СВО»'s video of the Ukrainian flag falling in Kryvyi Rih serves as symbolic demoralization. Военкор Котенок's post about "new conflicts" aims to frame Russia as threatened. Два майора's post about "Serbs needing to sell shells" is an attempt to influence international arms markets in their favor. Colonelcassad shared new videos of Iran celebrations, explicitly stating the Quds Force commander is alive, aiming to refute counter-IO. Alex Parker Returns also shared similar IO, including claims of Khamenei's presence undetected by Mossad. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Netanyahu's statement that Israel "froze" Iran's nuclear project and will act with the same force against attempts to revive it, aiming to control the narrative on the Middle East. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z's claim of "enemy attacking Kazan and Kherson region" is a form of IO to acknowledge UAF actions while framing them as hostile. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Стрелков Игорь Иванович's critical commentary on RUF's foreign policy on the "Iranian crisis" is a notable instance of internal pro-war dissent within the IO space. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns reported Ukrainian language being excluded from school programs in "new regions" and Crimea, using the term "хохлов" (derogatory for Ukrainians), signaling a new wave of cultural suppression and IO against Ukrainian identity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns explicitly used "шизоидов" (schizoids) to refer to Ukrainians in the context of school education, further emphasizing dehumanization in IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The video of NATO leaders by ASTRA is likely monitored and analyzed by RUF for IO purposes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора's video of the "Espanyola" special forces marine detachment operating from a mobile command post aims to project RUF naval special operations capability and control in Crimea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z amplified CNN's report that US strikes did not destroy Iran's nuclear program, aims to undermine US military effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad's comment about IAEA wanting to visit Iranian sites aims to control information and narratives around Iran's nuclear program. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA's report on military enlistment offices in Saransk using unethical tactics highlights a dark side of RUF recruitment, which if widely disseminated could damage RUF's public image and recruitment efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's post about "paratrooper brotherhood" is a typical morale-boosting IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). MoD Russia's "Top News Today" photo indicates continued control over public messaging and narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Военкор Котенок reports White House dissatisfaction with US media publications stating that strikes on June 22 did not destroy Iran's nuclear program, indicating RUF IO attempting to highlight US internal dissent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Nebenzya stating US/Israel actions against Iran's nuclear facilities are a dangerous infringement on NPT authority and Iran's right to peaceful nuclear energy, indicating RUF IO aligning with Iran's narrative against US/Israel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). «Зона СВО» shares photos of "Akhmat" special forces commander, as part of glorification and recruitment IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы reports registration open for Night Cycling Festival in Moscow, projecting normalcy and stability. (NO MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE). «Зона СВО» shares video of Zelenskyy's speech, with a mocking caption, indicating continued direct targeting of Ukrainian leadership in IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). «Зона СВО» shares a "good night" photo, a rare instance of non-military related IO, likely to project normalcy or build community. (NO MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE). РБК-Україна shares videos of the "Atlant AERO" explosion, indicating RUF monitoring of UAF deep strikes against RF territory, while also demonstrating RUF's willingness to publish such incidents. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports on the cost of the Krokus City Hall attack organizers, indicating RUF's continued IO on attributing blame and justifying actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы published a humorous image with no military significance, contributing to normalcy IO. (NO MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE). TASS reports: Erdogan held talks with Trump in The Hague, they discussed Ukraine and the Middle East, indicating RUF monitoring of this high-level diplomatic activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns posted a general IO message "More insights. Be good!", implying influence and control over information. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared videos on Czech-Russian business, a soft-power IO piece to show positive external relations for Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Intentions: RUF intends to:
  • Sustain Offensive Pressure & Consolidate Gains: Continue high-intensity ground assaults on key axes (Donetsk, Luhansk) to achieve localized gains and attrit UAF forces, attempting to sever UAF logistics, particularly towards Konstantinovka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Degrade UAF Morale and Capabilities: Through continued terror strikes against civilian targets and military-industrial/force generation infrastructure using ballistic missiles, KABs, and UAVs. This includes targeting critical transport infrastructure like train lines, training/deployment centers, and logistics hubs. The increased casualties in Dnipro (17 dead, 279 wounded) highlight the continued lethal effectiveness of these strikes against civilian populations. The strike on Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi lyceum with civilian casualties further confirms this intent. Strikes on facilities like "Radiozavod" in Kyiv, and "Bolkhov Semiconductor Device Plant" and "Atlant AERO" in RF territory (claimed UAF strikes) indicate a focus on disrupting military-industrial capacity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Reinforce Domestic Support & Legitimacy: Use claims of tactical gains, internal security actions, and publicize domestic support for the military to reinforce internal cohesion and project control. The new administrative measure regarding "Phoenix" data verification indicates an ongoing tightening of domestic information control. The initiative to have war participants teach "traditional values" in schools is a long-term effort to militarize Russian youth and secure future support for conflicts, while domestic events like the forum in Grozny aim to project internal unity. The banning of "Allatra" and legal action against Apple/Kinopoisk are further steps in societal control. The blaming of Ukraine for the Krokus attack (from previous ISR) provides a direct justification for further aggression and internal repression. Putin's awarding of a train driver posthumously for a bridge collapse in Bryansk suggests an effort to rally domestic support by highlighting perceived selflessness in the face of incidents. The posthumous award to a sergeant for Mariupol further reinforces this. The focus on domestic criminal cases, such as the Sheremetyevo airport incident, contributes to a narrative of internal order. The exclusion of Ukrainian language from school programs in occupied territories and Crimea indicates a clear intent for cultural assimilation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Exert Control over Border Areas: The persistent assaults and "buffer zone" claims in Sumy/Kharkiv, combined with confirmed RUF ground activity, KAB strikes, and Kotsnews and Старше Эдды's reporting an "advance," strongly suggest a long-term intent to establish a physical presence in northern Ukraine or at least to destabilize the border regions and tie down UAF forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Shape International Narrative: RUF seeks to project itself as a relevant geopolitical actor, sow discord among Western partners, or divert attention from Ukraine. This is evidenced by the rapid deployment and retraction of the fake Israel-Iran conflict resolution narrative and the rapid promotion of Trump's Nobel nomination. The spreading of the "NATO creating an Iron Curtain" narrative aims to frame NATO as aggressive and justify RUF actions. The rapid pivot in the Israel-Iran narrative suggests an intent to control perceptions of global stability and the effectiveness of US/Western diplomacy. The continued focus on Iranian nuclear program (Colonelcassad, TASS) highlights RUF's interest in shaping narratives around this sensitive topic. The promotion of the idea that "Serbs need to sell shells" suggests an RUF attempt to influence international arms markets in their favor. Netanyahu's statement on Iran's nuclear project, relayed by TASS, indicates RUF's continued engagement in shaping the Middle East narrative. The amplification of CNN's report on the failure of US strikes to destroy Iran's nuclear program also serves to undermine US credibility. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Control Information Flow in Occupied Territories: The shutdown of mobile internet in occupied Kherson Oblast demonstrates a clear intent to isolate the population and control information, likely to prevent communication with UAF and suppress dissent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• RUF: Continued high volume of ballistic missiles (claimed 4 Iskanders in Dnipro, confirmed by Poddubny), KABs (Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, Poltava, Pavlohrad, Rostov Oblast), and Shahed/Geran-2 UAVs for deep strikes and shaping operations. The claimed capture of Dyleyevka, Perebudova and Petrovske/Hrekivka indicates persistent focus on expanding control in Donetsk/Luhansk Oblasts, with Rybar confirming "successes near Konstantinovka" and Basurin claiming "advances" on Krasnolimansk. Increased targeting of UAF training centers and temporary deployment areas indicates an adaptation to degrade UAF force generation, and now includes direct hits on passenger trains and schools (Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi). The continued, unsuccessful ground assaults in Sumy/Kursk, despite the large force concentration reported in the previous ISR, suggest a probing or attritional strategy for now, but the intent for a "buffer zone" or larger offensive remains, now overtly stated with MLRS activity in Kharkiv and Kotsnews' claims of "advance" in Sumy, supported by Старше Эдды's "buffer zone" report. The Rybar video on "Organization and conduct of an ambush on enemy transport" and Воин DV's claims of destroying UAF assets with FPV drones (including new video of strike in Karl Marx/Mirne) suggest specific tactical adaptations in anti-logistics and anti-armor operations. The footage from Serebryanskoye forestry indicates extensive FPV drone usage by both sides. Два майора's video from Konstantinovka direction showcasing drone strikes and FABs indicates combined-arms tactical adaptations for assault operations. The photo/map of "Kherson direction" from Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 suggests ongoing tactical planning and adaptation for that axis. Воин DV's new video of a precision drone strike by 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade further highlights RUF's use of SOF and drones for targeted strikes against personnel/vehicles. Colonelcassad shared video of a Russian DRG ambush on a vehicle with Ukrainian servicemen, showing gunfire and a vehicle on fire, indicating continued special operations tactics. The new MoD Russia video showing signalmen in Kherson and their operations indicates continued emphasis on C2 and potentially EW capabilities. "Сливочный каприз" new video with "Rubicon" logo confirms continued drone use and claimed destruction of a vehicle. RUF claims massive AFU UAV attack on Kherson Oblast, suggesting increased UAF drone activity on that axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Tightening internal regulations and new recruitment efforts reflect efforts to increase societal control and expand recruitment in support of the war effort. The extension of "Phoenix" data verification until November 1st underscores a persistent administrative effort to control digital infrastructure and information, reinforcing the state's grip. The alleged mistreatment of mobilized soldiers by RUF indicates a potential adaptation in internal discipline and enforcement, possibly due to desertion or refusal to fight. ASTRA's report on Saransk military enlistment offices using threats/alcohol for recruitment is a specific adaptation. The mobile internet shutdown in occupied Kherson suggests a more aggressive tactic to control communication. The rapid fabrication and 'resolution' of the Israel-Iran conflict by RUF IO channels demonstrates a highly dynamic and adaptive information warfare strategy, including the new 'victory' narrative for Iran. The use of open-source intelligence for targeting by RUF, as reported by РБК-Україна expert, indicates a tactical adaptation in intelligence gathering for strikes. New TASS report on military commanders gaining disciplinary arrest authority indicates further adaptation in internal control. The exclusion of Ukrainian language from school programs in occupied territories and Crimea is a new cultural/IO adaptation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF claims hits on "Radiozavod" in Kyiv, indicating adaptation to target industrial facilities deeper in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF also adapting to internal deep strikes, as evidenced by reports of explosions at "Atlant AERO" factory in Taganrog and UAV attacks in Rostov Oblast (Taganrog, Azov, Rodionovo-Nesvetay district). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF's rapid response to lift flight restrictions at Saratov airport after UAV activity indicates adaptive air traffic control management. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: Continues to demonstrate effective AD responses to RUF UAVs in some areas, but struggles with the volume and type (ballistic, KAB) of deeper strikes. UAF is actively building fortifications, including anti-drone tunnels for logistics, as well as engaging in basic general military training and advanced procurement training. UAF ground forces are effectively repelling multiple RUF assaults across various axes, indicating strong defensive posture, and are conducting limited counter-actions (e.g., 3rd Assault Brigade near Ridkodub, Ghost of Khortytsia drone operations, UAF SOF destroying RUF assault group on Pokrovsk direction). UAF has demonstrated success in downing RUF reconnaissance UAVs with FPV drones (128th OGShBr downing Orlan-30), indicating adaptive counter-UAV tactics. STERNENKO's video of "Wings to Hell" unit destroying an RUF soldier with a drone in Sumy Oblast demonstrates ongoing asymmetric drone warfare. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS' video of a UAV destroying a RUF Grad MLRS demonstrates effective counter-battery and drone usage. UAF continues deep strikes on RUF territory, evidenced by reported oil depot strikes and KIA, now including STERNENKO's video of "Novem Group" destroying RUF logistics in Kursk Oblast. STERNENKO's report on "drone safety" in multiple RF oblasts further highlights UAF's continued deep strike capability. UAF is demonstrating capability for complex non-military operations such as the evacuation of citizens from Iran (РБК-Україна), highlighting adaptive diplomatic and logistical capabilities beyond the battlefield. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС showcased Ukrainian forces utilizing "Shark" reconnaissance UAVs, indicating UAF's adaptation in advanced aerial reconnaissance and intelligence. Олексій Білошицький's video on police providing first aid in Dnipro highlights civilian emergency services adapting to and managing the consequences of RUF strikes. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shared video of 3rd Separate Tank "Iron" Brigade destroying RUF forces and a new FPV drone video targeting an RUF UAZ vehicle ("bukhanka"). ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 shared video of "BLACK SKY" unit of 3rd Separate Presidential Brigade "Spartan" striking RUF forces in western outskirts of Novoserhiivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ's latest video from Sumy Oblast showing FPV drone activity over RUF casualties confirms UAF's continued engagement and effectiveness in this sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports a collection for transport for drone operators of 421st Separate UAV Battalion "Sapsan" on the Sumy direction, highlighting UAF's adaptation of grassroots fundraising for logistical support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports PACE called on Russia to create a mechanism for permanent exchange of prisoners with Ukraine, indicating UAF's continued use of diplomatic channels to pressure RUF on humanitarian issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO's comment on "underperforming today's norm for rusoriz" suggests a continued offensive mindset and adaptation in setting operational goals. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video shows Ukrainian F-16 shooting down a Shahed, indicating new capabilities for air defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash na Donbasse reports part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast without power due to UAF strike, indicating UAF adaptation to target RUF-controlled energy infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports successful strike on Bolkhov Semiconductor Device Plant (BZNP) on May 21, indicating UAF adaptation to target Russian military-industrial capacity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports explosion at "Atlant AERO" factory in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, Russia, further highlighting UAF deep strike adaptation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports explosion at "Atlant AERO" factory in Taganrog further confirming UAF deep strike capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Zelenskyy and Macron discussed increasing Mirage fighter supplies and joint production of interceptor drones, indicating UAF adaptation to enhance air defense with Western assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• RUF continues to possess and employ ballistic missiles (Iskander), KABs, and Shahed/Geran-2 UAVs, indicating sustained production or external supply. RUF's ability to maintain offensive operations suggests adequate logistical support for ground forces, supplemented by significant domestic support and new internal mobilization laws, and external recruitment efforts. The Rybar video on ambushing enemy transport and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's photos of supplies being delivered to the "front" and video of soldiers' living conditions indicate an RUF focus on degrading UAF logistics while maintaining their own. The alleged torture and mistreatment of mobilized soldiers by RUF, as reported by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, and the reported criminality of a serviceman in Buryatia (ASTRA), suggests potential issues with personnel morale and discipline, which could impact sustainment and overall force cohesion. ASTRA's report on Saransk military enlistment offices suggests problematic recruitment practices that might impact quality of personnel. TASS and ASTRA reports of Aeroflot flight adjustments in Russia could indicate minor logistical disruptions or new security measures impacting civil aviation, potentially linked to UAV threats in Saratov, Penza, and Tatarstan, as well as the lifting of restrictions at Tambov airport and Saratov airport. The arrest of the "Rostovvodokanal" director in Rostov region could indicate internal issues impacting civilian infrastructure that could have secondary effects on logistics. The discussions on military volunteerism in Russia (Филолог в засаде) suggest an ongoing effort to address logistical and support challenges for the war effort from civilian sources. Putin's tasking to the government to consider foreign companies returning to Russia suggests an effort to bolster the economy and potentially the war economy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF continues to require and receive significant international support for defense, including for drone and AD capabilities. RBC-Ukraine's report on Ukraine's military-industrial complex potential of over $35 billion and the need for funding and partial export indicates a long-term strategy for self-sustainment in defense production. Николаевский Ванёк's report on a collection for transport for drone operators of 421st Separate UAV Battalion "Sapsan" on the Sumy direction indicates active efforts to support UAF logistical needs at the unit level. Nikolaevskiy Vanok's report of collecting "more than half" in just over an hour highlights the efficiency of UAF grassroots fundraising for logistics, with the collection now closed. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 confirmed Netherlands' new military aid package of 675 million euros, highlighting continued external support. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights the bankruptcy of a "critically important microelectronic enterprise" in Russia, which could impact RUF's ability to produce advanced military hardware, thus indirectly aiding UAF logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦's report on a Russian LNG tanker in Rotterdam highlights continued economic activity that could indirectly support RUF logistics. ASTRA's report on "Naftogaz" demanding payment from "Gazprom" highlights ongoing economic pressure on Russia, which could indirectly impact its war-fighting capabilities. Alex Parker Returns also amplified this, using derogatory language. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's request for support for "Shark" reconnaissance UAV consoles highlights specific high-tech logistical needs. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"'s general plea for support indicates ongoing broad material needs. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's video of "storm airborne regiment" requesting drones and comms indicates a continued need for advanced equipment for specific units, potentially highlighting some logistical gaps. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк's update on the successful closure of the collection for drone operators in 2 hours 32 minutes highlights the speed and effectiveness of UAF grassroots support for logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора's "collection for Kherson direction" indicates ongoing needs for logistical support in that area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Zelenskyy and Macron discussed increasing Mirage fighter supplies and joint production of interceptor drones, which would be a significant logistical gain for Ukraine's air defense capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• RUF: Highly effective C2 over its air/missile operations, capable of multi-layered attacks on diverse targets (Dnipro, Shakhovo, Toretskoye, Sumy, Odesa, Kolodezi, Kherson, now including passenger trains and claimed military-industrial targets). Tactical C2 for ground operations appears effective given claimed advances and coordinated air/UAV support, with coordinated actions reported by "Sever, Yug, and Tsentr Group of Forces." Their ability to conduct and report on internal security operations and pass new legislation, as well as coordinate recruitment efforts and youth military training, indicates effective C2 over domestic FSB/law enforcement and political elements. The official extension of the "Phoenix" data verification period demonstrates a centralized, effective C2 in implementing internal control measures over digital infrastructure and information, reinforcing the state's grip. The rapid dissemination of fake news (Trump Nobel Prize, fabricated Israel-Iran conflict) and dehumanizing rhetoric shows effective C2 over IO channels. The mobile internet shutdown in occupied Kherson suggests a centralized decision to control information. The FSB's public claims of capturing a Ukrainian spy and Putin's signing of the law on FSB control over scientists' contacts indicates effective, centralized C2 over internal security and information control. The arrest of the "Rostovvodokanal" director indicates continued centralized C2 over administrative and internal affairs. The meeting on military volunteerism indicates a coordinated effort to manage civilian support for the war, demonstrating centralized C2. MoD Russia's video highlighting signalmen in Kherson region specifically emphasizes effective C2 in combat zones. The TASS report on military commanders gaining disciplinary arrest authority indicates centralized control over internal military discipline. TASS report on Lukashenko and Putin phone conversation indicates continued high-level C2 between RF and Belarus. TASS reports Netanyahu's statement on Iran's nuclear project, demonstrating RUF's centralized C2 in disseminating geopolitical narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports on the Sheremetyevo airport incident investigation, indicating centralized control over domestic news. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The exclusion of Ukrainian language from school programs also indicates centralized C2 over cultural and educational policies in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad's video glorifying RUF stormtroopers shows effective C2 in internal morale boosting and propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора's video of "Espanyola" special forces shows effective C2 in naval special operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The Saransk military enlistment office reports, while negative for RUF, indicate continued centralized recruitment efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). MoD Russia's "Top News Today" photo indicates continued centralized C2 over public messaging and narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad's analysis of Chinese ICBM launcher, although not directly related to Ukraine, shows RUF's C2 over global strategic intelligence monitoring and analysis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Nebenzya's statement on Iran's nuclear program indicating centralized C2 over diplomatic messaging. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). «Зона СВО» shares photos of "Akhmat" special forces commander, as part of glorification and recruitment IO, showing C2 over propaganda efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна shares videos of the "Atlant AERO" explosion, indicating RUF's centralized control over information regarding incidents in RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports on the Krokus City Hall attack organizers, indicating centralized C2 over internal investigations and IO narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports lifting of Saratov airport restrictions, indicating centralized C2 for air traffic management. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports UAV debris damaged stadium and grain warehouse in Rostov Oblast, demonstrating centralized C2 in rapid incident reporting and damage assessment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Erdogan and Trump discussed Ukraine and the Middle East, demonstrating RUF's centralized C2 in monitoring international diplomatic engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: Effective C2 in rapid air threat warnings, particularly concerning missiles and KABs. Effective C2 for counter-UAV operations (including FPV drones downing Orlan-30 and destroying Grad MLRS) and ground defense, as evidenced by successful fortification building and repelling multiple assaults and conducting limited counter-actions (e.g., 3rd Assault Brigade near Ridkodub, UAF SOF on Pokrovsk direction). Effective in managing the aftermath of missile strikes, including BDA and casualty reporting, and coordinating international military aid. UAF demonstrates effective C2 for training, drone maintenance, and defense procurement. UAF's diplomatic C2 remains highly effective, evidenced by continued high-level engagement, including direct addresses to foreign parliaments and meetings with US Senators. Zelenskiy / Official's prompt reporting of his address to the Dutch parliament, including the warning about Russian plans for "hostile and potentially destructive operations on NATO territory," and his direct address to Putin on war crimes, indicates strong, responsive diplomatic C2. The coordinated release of photos from the joint meeting with EU and NATO leaders further highlights effective strategic C2 in IO. Олександр Вілкул's briefing for Kryvyi Rih indicates effective local C2 for civil-military coordination. РБК-Україна reporting on the evacuation of citizens from Iran suggests robust diplomatic and logistical C2 for complex overseas operations. Zelenskiy's public statements on Shahed numbers and the need for partner support also indicate effective C2 in transparent reporting and resource advocacy. Николаевский Ванёк's success in rapid fundraising for drone unit transport highlights effective C2 in coordinating and leveraging public support for material needs. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's specific request for "Shark" UAV consoles highlights targeted C2 for high-tech needs. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS' video of Zelenskyy's arrival and Оперативний ЗСУ's photos of Zelenskyy/Macron meeting further highlight effective C2 in high-level diplomatic engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк's rapid closure of the collection for drone operators (2h 32m) demonstrates highly effective C2 in leveraging public support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports PACE called on Russia to create a mechanism for permanent exchange of prisoners with Ukraine, highlighting UAF's effective C2 in pursuing diplomatic solutions for humanitarian issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO's comment on "underperforming today's norm for rusoriz" indicates effective C2 in setting and communicating operational goals. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ reports Trump agreed to meet Zelenskyy, showing effective diplomatic C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video shows Ukrainian F-16 shooting down a Shahed, indicating effective C2 in air defense operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports successful strike on Bolkhov Semiconductor Device Plant (BZNP), indicating effective C2 in deep strike targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Zelenskyy and Macron discussed increasing Mirage fighter supplies and joint production of interceptor drones, indicating effective C2 in strategic planning for air defense capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Ground Forces: UAF maintains a resilient defensive posture, actively resisting RUF advances across multiple axes. The successful repelling of 10 assaults in Sumy/Kursk and 6 in Kherson demonstrates high readiness and determination on the flanks. UAF remains capable of localized counter-attacks, as suggested by the RUF claim of a UAF attempt to retake Mali Shcherbaky, and demonstrated by the 3rd Assault Brigade near Ridkodub and Ghost of Khortytsia drone operations. UAF Special Operations Forces demonstrated effective counter-assault tactics on Pokrovsk direction, destroying a RUF assault group. The 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade demonstrated effective counter-UAV capabilities by downing a Russian "Orlan-30" with an FPV drone. STERNENKO's video of "Wings to Hell" unit in Sumy Oblast further demonstrates UAF's active drone combat operations. Оперативний ЗСУ's video of 24th Separate Assault Battalion "Aidar" receiving a vehicle indicates continued support and operational readiness. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS' video of a UAV destroying a RUF Grad MLRS on Lyman direction demonstrates high readiness for counter-battery fire. Николаевский Ванёк reports UAF "tigers" captured a prisoner on the left bank of Kherson Oblast. STERNENKO's new video of "Novem Group" destroying RUF logistics in Kursk Oblast indicates continued UAF offensive capability across the border. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's posts highlighting military medics' importance underscores sustained efforts in personnel welfare and combat readiness. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС showcasing "Shark" reconnaissance UAV use indicates readiness in advanced ISR. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shared video of 3rd Separate Tank "Iron" Brigade destroying RUF forces and a new FPV drone video targeting an RUF UAZ vehicle ("bukhanka"). ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 shared video of "BLACK SKY" unit of 3rd Separate Presidential Brigade "Spartan" striking RUF forces in western outskirts of Novoserhiivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ's latest video from Sumy Oblast showing FPV drone activity over deceased RUF personnel, indicates ongoing UAF engagement and effectiveness in this sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Staff provided an operational update for 22:00 24.06.2025, detailing ongoing clashes and defensive operations across various axes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO's comment on "underperforming today's norm for rusoriz" indicates an active offensive posture and high readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shared a photo of a Ukrainian soldier in camouflage with a weapon and what appears to be a military vehicle, sarcastically commenting on the RUF soldier's "shroud," indicating UAF tactical awareness and success in engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Air Defense: UAF AD is on high alert, actively tracking and responding to missile, KAB, and UAV threats to major cities, critical infrastructure, and military targets. The challenge remains significant given the volume and type (ballistic, KAB) of deeper strikes. UAF Air Force is actively detecting RUF reconnaissance UAVs and tactical aviation, including on the southeastern direction. The new ballistic missile threat alert from the southern direction and the new missile threat for Sumy Oblast indicate continued high AD readiness, although the most recent alert has been cancelled. Zelenskiy's reporting of 28,743 Shahed drones since full-scale invasion highlights the scale of AD challenge. РБК-Україна expert analysis on new, harder-to-intercept Shahed models emphasizes the evolving AD threat. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued an alert for "Several groups of UAVs in the Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast," indicating continued high AD readiness in the south. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAVs in Sumy Oblast, moving southwest, and for UAVs heading towards Odesa Oblast (Ovidipol/Chernomorsk), with 14 drones in the Black Sea and 2 north of Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, confirm ongoing AD readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports 2 UAVs were shot down near Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast heading towards Dnipropetrovsk (Synelnykivskyi district), and UAVs in Odesa Oblast (Sarata). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video shows Ukrainian F-16 shooting down a Shahed, indicating new capabilities for air defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for several groups of UAVs in eastern Kharkiv Oblast heading west. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAV towards Poltava city and Pavlohrad city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports on general "moped" (UAV) activity, indicating ongoing air defense concerns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New alert for UAV from the south heading towards Zaporizhzhia city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Russia is attacking Ukraine with drones from different directions, indicating UAF AD is actively tracking and responding to a multi-directional threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Defense Industry & Procurement: Netherlands' pledge of 600,000 drones and 100 anti-UAV radars is a significant boost, indicating continued focus on asymmetric capabilities and counter-UAV measures. Germany's approval of an €8.3 billion military aid budget is a major strategic commitment. РБК-Україна reported on Ukraine's domestic military-industrial complex potential of over $35 billion, indicating growing self-sufficiency, but also highlighting the need for increased funding and potential for partial export. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 confirmed Netherlands' new military aid package of 675 million euros, further solidifying this significant aid. Два майора reports that a Czech-Slovak company transferred a Shark aircraft to Ukraine for UAV suppression using EW, indicating new Western support for EW capabilities. Оперативний ЗСУ and STERNENKO report Zelenskyy discussed expanding air fleet with Mirages and co-production of interceptor drones with Macron, indicating focus on enhancing air capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Europe plans to persuade Trump to sell weapons to Ukraine, indicating ongoing efforts to secure advanced arms. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also shared photos of Zelenskyy meeting Macron, discussing increasing supply of Mirage fighters and joint production of interceptor drones to strengthen protection of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Internal Security: SBU continues to thwart assassination attempts and counter hostile activities, successfully jailing an FSB agent in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Welfare/Personnel: Meetings with families of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" at the Coordination Staff highlight ongoing efforts to address personnel welfare and maintain morale. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's posts emphasizing military medics underscore continued focus on personnel care and retention. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ's video of Ukrainian soldiers requesting assistance for a damaged vehicle indicates ongoing material needs and challenges for frontline personnel. Олексій Білошицький's video on police providing first aid in Dnipro, while not direct military, shows civilian readiness and resilience under attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes:
  • Strategic Military Aid: Netherlands' commitment to fund 600,000 drones and supply 100 anti-UAV radars is a major strategic success for UAF's long-term capabilities and asymmetrical warfare. Germany's approval of €8.3 billion in military aid is a significant financial commitment. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 confirmed Netherlands' new military aid package of 675 million euros. The transfer of a Shark EW aircraft for UAV suppression by a Czech-Slovak company (Два майора) is a significant new acquisition. Zelenskyy's discussions with Macron on Mirages and interceptor drone co-production indicate potential for significant air fleet expansion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Europe plans to persuade Trump to sell weapons to Ukraine, indicating ongoing strategic efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also shared photos of Zelenskyy meeting Macron, discussing increasing supply of Mirage fighters and joint production of interceptor drones to strengthen protection of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF Defensive Resilience: UAF successfully repelled 10 RUF assaults in Sumy/Kursk and 6 in Kherson, indicating robust defensive posture and effective combat operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Staff operational update for 22:00 24.06.2025 further confirms UAF defensive successes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Localized Counter-Actions: The 3rd Assault Brigade successfully pushing occupiers out near Ridkodub (Lyman direction) and Ghost of Khortytsia drone operations in Slobozhanshchyna showcase UAF's ability to conduct localized offensive actions and effective drone warfare. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing RUF KIA from UAF drone strike. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС also reports UAF Special Operations Forces destroyed a Russian assault group on the Pokrovsk direction, which included drone footage of the combat. РБК-Україна also shared video of the 3rd Assault Brigade destroying an RUF platoon in the east. The 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade successfully downed a Russian "Orlan-30" reconnaissance UAV with an FPV drone near Zaporizhzhia, demonstrating effective counter-UAV tactics. STERNENKO's video of "Wings to Hell" unit destroying an RUF soldier in Sumy Oblast further exemplifies successful drone actions. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS' video of a UAV destroying a RUF Grad MLRS on Lyman direction demonstrates successful counter-battery actions. Николаевский Ванёк reports UAF "tigers" captured a prisoner on the left bank of Kherson Oblast. STERNENKO's video of "Novem Group" destroying RUF logistics in Kursk Oblast indicates continued effective deep strikes against RUF logistics. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's showcasing of "Shark" reconnaissance UAVs indicates successful procurement and integration of advanced ISR assets. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shared video of 3rd Separate Tank "Iron" Brigade destroying RUF forces and a new FPV drone video targeting an RUF UAZ vehicle ("bukhanka"), showing effective tactical engagement. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 shared video of "BLACK SKY" unit of 3rd Separate Presidential Brigade "Spartan" striking RUF forces in western outskirts of Novoserhiivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ's latest video from Sumy Oblast showing FPV drone activity over RUF casualties confirms UAF's continued effectiveness in localized engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO's comment on "underperforming today's norm for rusoriz" implies continued UAF offensive pressure and successful engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shared a photo of a Ukrainian soldier mocking RUF casualties, indicating successful tactical engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Fortification Building: UAF engineer units are actively engaged in building fortifications, including anti-drone tunnels for logistics, strengthening defensive positions. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shared photos of housing restoration in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicative of resilience and reconstruction efforts amidst conflict, and graduation ceremonies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Deep Strike Capability (Retained & Expanded): RUF reports of intercepting 34 Ukrainian UAVs (including 18 in three hours), and UAF claims of hitting 8 RUF oil depots, confirm UAF's continued capability to conduct deep strikes into Russian territory, directly impacting RUF logistics. TASS claims 22 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over various regions of Russia in 3.5 hours, also reported by ASTRA. РБК-Україна reports RUF has dropped almost 100 bombs on its own and occupied territories since the beginning of the year, indicative of RUF munitions issues that benefit UAF. STERNENKO's video of "Novem Group" destroying RUF logistics in Kursk Oblast reinforces this capability. STERNENKO's report on "drone safety" in multiple RF oblasts further highlights this. ASTRA reports 8 UAVs shot down in Ulyanovsk Oblast. TASS reports a UAV threat declared in Saratov Oblast, and four UAVs destroyed over Tatarstan, confirming continued UAF deep strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New air raid siren in Saratov and Engels, confirming UAF deep strike effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash na Donbasse reports part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast without power due to UAF strike, confirming UAF deep strike on RUF-controlled energy infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports successful strike on Bolkhov Semiconductor Device Plant (BZNP) on May 21. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports explosion at "Atlant AERO" factory in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, Russia, further highlighting UAF deep strike capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports explosion at "Atlant AERO" factory in Taganrog further confirming UAF deep strike capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports UAV debris damaged stadium and grain warehouse in Rostov Oblast; UAVs shot down in Taganrog, Azov, and Rodionovo-Nesvetay district, confirming UAF deep strike activity in Rostov Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Diplomatic Engagement: Zelenskyy's address at the NATO Defence Industry Forum in Netherlands, and his meeting with US Congress Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Chris Coons discussing support and Trump's ceasefire initiative, signal continued high-level engagement. Zelenskiy / Official, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 sharing photos of joint meeting with EU and NATO leaders highlights coordinated diplomatic messaging. Zelenskyy's warning to the Dutch parliament about Russian plans for "hostile and potentially destructive operations on NATO territory" is a significant diplomatic message. Zelenskiy's direct address to Putin on accountability for war crimes further demonstrates strong diplomatic resolve. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Russia has launched 28,743 Shahed drones at Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion, with 2,736 in June, according to Zelenskyy. This highlights UAF's intelligence and reporting capabilities. РБК-Україна reported on the potential meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy during the NATO summit, indicating continued high-level diplomatic relevance. РБК-Україна reports on Ukraine's special operation to evacuate citizens from Iran, demonstrating successful complex diplomatic/logistical operations. Zelenskiy / Official's meeting with French President Macron to coordinate next steps and pressure on Russia indicates continued high-level diplomatic support and coordination. Zelenskyy's audience with the King of Netherlands further indicates strong diplomatic ties. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting on Gen. Alexus Grinkevich's belief that Ukraine can win provides a morale boost from an external perspective. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports PACE called on Russia to create a mechanism for permanent exchange of prisoners with Ukraine, highlighting continued international pressure on Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reported on NATO leaders meeting in The Hague, which is a positive development for UAF as it signifies continued Western unity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ reports Trump agreed to meet Zelenskyy at NATO summit on June 25, citing Politico. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also shared photos of Zelenskyy meeting Macron, discussing increasing supply of Mirage fighters and joint production of interceptor drones to strengthen protection of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Domestic Defense Production: RBC-Ukraine's report on Ukraine's military-industrial complex potential of over $35 billion highlights efforts towards self-sufficiency. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Impact on RUF Defense Industry: Оперативний ЗСУ highlights the bankruptcy of a "critically important microelectronic enterprise" in Russia, which could negatively impact RUF military production. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports successful strike on Bolkhov Semiconductor Device Plant (BZNP) on May 21. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports explosion at "Atlant AERO" factory in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports explosion at "Atlant AERO" factory in Taganrog further confirming UAF impact on RUF industry. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Setbacks:
  • Escalating Civilian Casualties/Infrastructure Damage: RUF ballistic missile strikes caused significant casualties (now 17 dead, 279 wounded) and extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Dnipro, including schools, kindergartens, residences, a music school, and a passenger train. A strike also occurred on a lyceum in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi (Odesa Oblast), resulting in three civilian deaths. This is a severe humanitarian setback. Continued attacks on Nikopol region affecting civilian areas also represent ongoing civilian suffering, as do airstrikes in Polohy district, Zaporizhzhia. Оперативний ЗСУ updated casualty figures for Dnipro to 15 dead and over 200 injured, aligning with previous reports, though later updates confirm 17 dead and 279 wounded. STERNENKO's drone footage of a damaged residential area in Donetsk Oblast with an explosion further confirms continued RUF strikes on civilian areas. RUF claims strikes on "Radiozavod" in Kyiv, further confirming targeting of Ukrainian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports, updated figures).
  • Alleged Positional Setbacks: RUF claims "liberation" of Dyleyevka, Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast) and Petrovske/Hrekivka (Luhansk Oblast). Kotsnews also reports on RUF "advance" in Sumy Oblast. Rybar reports "successes near Konstantinovka." Basurin claims RUF "confidently advancing on Krasnolimansk direction." "Операция Z" published video claiming "Dyleevka is under our control." Старше Эдды also published a report from the "buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast, showing rural roads and damaged houses, supporting claims of RUF presence. Два майора's video from Konstantinovka direction, Yablonovka, shows active combat, potentially implying UAF loss of positions. These claims require urgent verification but, if confirmed, would constitute significant tactical setbacks, particularly for logistics towards Konstantinovka. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claims).
  • Strikes on RUF Military Targets (RUF Claim): RUF claims successful FPV drone strikes on a UAF dugout by Caspian Flotilla and the 36th Motor Rifle Brigade stopping UAF in Yalta and engaging. RUF "Rubikon" drones claimed destruction of an ammunition depot and an artillery piece/truck in Kolodezi/Kherson direction. RUF also claims destruction of a UAF UAV control point in Kharkiv Oblast and an Abrams tank in Sumy Oblast. Воин DV claims their "Kaira" UAV squadron destroyed a UAF T-72 tank, an ATV, and a vehicle with personnel, and their new video claims a vehicle and group in Karl Marx (Mirne) were hit by 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade. Операция Z (Military Correspondents of Russian Spring) posted video of aftermath of an alleged enemy attempt to destroy "Espanyola" marine detachment. Colonelcassad's video of a Russian DRG ambush also claims successful action against Ukrainian servicemen. If confirmed, this would be a localized degradation of UAF capabilities. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim). Colonelcassad's new video shows a military truck towing a tank, identified as an M-60 Patton, not an Abrams, in Kyiv. If RUF attempts to claim this as a damaged Abrams, it would be a misrepresentation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on video, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on potential RUF misrepresentation). "Сливочный каприз" new video with "Rubicon" logo claims a "200" (KIA) from a drone strike on a vehicle, which if true would be a casualty setback. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad's collection of alleged "mercenaries destroyed" aims to portray UAF casualties. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified).
  • Information Control in Occupied Areas: The shutdown of mobile internet in occupied Kherson Oblast represents a setback for communication and information access for the civilian population and potentially UAF intelligence gathering. The exclusion of Ukrainian language from school programs in occupied territories is a significant setback for cultural preservation and civilian rights. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Challenges for Frontline Units: Оперативний ЗСУ's video showing Ukrainian soldiers requesting assistance for a damaged vehicle highlights persistent material challenges for frontline units. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"'s general fundraising plea also indicates ongoing material needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Continued critical need for advanced AD systems to counter ballistic missile and KAB threats, especially for urban centers, critical infrastructure (including railways and energy), and UAF training/force generation facilities. The pledged 600,000 drones and 100 radars, Germany's aid, and the new Shark EW aircraft are highly positive but require rapid delivery and integration. Continuous supply chain and training are essential for these systems and FPV drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF also needs continued international political support to counter RUF's escalating disinformation campaigns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ukraine's domestic defense industrial potential requires significant financial investment and policy changes (e.g., partial export allowance) to be fully realized. Николаевский Ванёк's report on collecting funds for drone unit transport on the Sumy direction highlights the ongoing need for logistical support for UAF units. Nikolaevskiy Vanok's report on collecting "more than half" in just over an hour also highlights efficiency of public support, with the collection now closed. Zvиздец Мангусту's fundraising request highlights continued reliance on public support for unit-level resources. Оперативний ЗСУ's video of soldiers requesting help for a damaged vehicle further emphasizes material constraints at the unit level. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's specific request for "Shark" UAV consoles highlights needs for advanced equipment. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"'s general plea for support indicates broad needs across units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ and STERNENKO's reporting on Zelenskyy discussing Mirages and interceptor drone co-production highlights the need for advanced air assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора's "collection for Kherson direction" indicates ongoing needs for logistical support in that area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian:
  • Frontline Glorification/Claims: RUF channels aggressively disseminate claims of "liberating" Dyleyevka, Perebudova and Petrovske/Hrekivka, and "successes near Konstantinovka," and "confidently advancing on Krasnolimansk direction" showcasing military prowess and territorial gains. "Операция Z" video on Dyleyevka, featuring Russian flags, reinforces this narrative. Операция Z also posted new drone footage of strikes on enemy vehicle/BMP/shelter, aiming to glorify RUF offensive actions. The "buffer zone" claim in Sumy/Kharkiv, amplified by Kotsnews' "advance" report and KAB strikes, and Старше Эдды's "report from the buffer zone" (with photos) aims to project offensive capability in the north. WarGonzo displays destroyed residential areas, blaming UAF, and shares drone strike video on a wooded area (Zaporizhzhia). MoD Russia explicitly states MLRS operation in Kharkiv to create buffer zone. Рыбарь shares video message captioned "Organization and conduct of an ambush on enemy transport." MoD Russia's new video showcasing "destroying enemy defences" across multiple Group of Forces aims to project widespread offensive success. Воин DV promotes the 29th Army's rapid advance near Yalta due to concentrated firepower, and claims destruction of UAF T-72, ATV, and personnel. Their new video shows a precision strike in Karl Marx (Mirne) by 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (Paratrooper's Diary) promotes "Delivery to the front!" showing logistical support and their map of "Kherson direction" suggests ongoing operations, and a video of soldiers in basic frontline conditions. Colonelcassad and Военкор Котенок highlighting the intense FPV drone warfare in Serebryanskoye forestry indicates RUF's efforts to portray their forces as technologically advanced in drone combat. Оперативний ЗСУ also confirms this intense drone warfare. Два майора's video from Konstantinovka direction showing drone strikes and FABs aims to glorify RUF offensive capabilities. Операция Z (Military Correspondents of Russian Spring) posted video of aftermath of an alleged enemy attempt to destroy "Espanyola" marine detachment, aiming to portray Ukraine as attacking legitimate Russian targets. Басурин о главном posted a video appearing to show a rocket launch, intended to showcase RUF strike capabilities. STERNENKO shared drone footage with 'MOLOT' logo from Donetsk Oblast, confirming RUF IO using footage of civilian destruction to justify actions. MoD Russia video showing signalmen in Kherson aims to project control and effectiveness. Colonelcassad shared video of a Russian DRG ambush on a vehicle with Ukrainian servicemen, aiming to glorify special operations tactics. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shared new FPV drone footage implying continued drone operations. "Сливочный каприз" new video with "Rubicon" and MoD Russia logos shows a drone strike, aiming to glorify RUF precision. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad's video glorifying RUF stormtroopers, with the deputy platoon commander "Yozh" speaking about his service, aims to boost morale and project military professionalism. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора's video of the "Espanyola" special forces marine detachment operating from a mobile command post aims to project RUF naval special operations capability and control in Crimea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). «Зона СВО» shares photos of "Akhmat" special forces commander, glorifying him. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z shares video claiming "Thunder" (RUF drone unit) burning enemy equipment near Kupyansk. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad posted a collection of photos alleging "mercenaries destroyed by Russian forces." (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified). WarGonzo's video of a Ukrainian flag in Kryvyi Rih serves as symbolic demoralization against Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Domestic Justification/Internal Security: RUF channels continue to amplify domestic incidents and internal security operations for internal political messaging, framing them as a focus on internal security and law enforcement, and attributing blame to Ukraine. New laws and social benefits, along with recruitment campaigns, are being promoted to project state control and support for the war effort. Mash na Donbasse's report on the extension of "Phoenix" data verification until November 1st, officially, suggests a continued administrative effort to bolster internal control and information oversight related to the conflict and potentially to increase surveillance. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's video of an alleged mobilized soldier recounting mistreatment and torture, if widely known internally, could damage this narrative, but RUF channels would suppress it. ASTRA reported on the initiative to have war participants teach "traditional values" in St. Petersburg schools, signaling continued militarization of society. ASTRA also reported on a serviceman beating two girls in Buryatia, possibly impacting domestic morale but largely suppressed by mainstream RUF channels. Kadyrov_95 promoting the "Russia - House of Peoples" forum reinforces internal unity narratives. Kotsnews' claim of "Kyiv holding 32 Kursky residents hostage" aims to frame Ukraine as a malicious actor and justify RUF actions. ASTRA reported on the Russian Supreme Court deeming "Allatra" movement "extremist" and banning it, and legal protocols against Apple/Kinopoisk for "LGBT propaganda," indicating a widening net of internal control. ASTRA also reported on local dissent against political reforms in Altai. AV БогомаZ (Governor of Bryansk Oblast) posted about road network development, which is a subtle form of IO to show government effectiveness despite proximity to conflict. TASS reported FSB's claim of capturing a Ukrainian spy who marked military units, further attributing internal security issues to Ukraine. ASTRA reports Putin signed a law on FSB control over Russian scientists' contacts with foreign colleagues, indicating increased internal security measures related to information control. Новости Москвы reports the State Duma is developing a list of permitted names for children. TASS reports Putin posthumously awarded a train driver for a bridge collapse in Bryansk, subtly attributing a 'heroic' narrative to a potentially hostile incident. TASS reports military commanders gained disciplinary arrest authority, portraying increased control. TASS reports Putin's interest in foreign companies returning to Russia, projecting economic stability. Два майора's message on public chamber discussion indicates RUF's effort to show public engagement. ASTRA reports on a streamer charged with "justifying Nazism" for a fabricated case, indicating ongoing internal crackdowns. НгП раZVедка reports Putin posthumously awarded sergeant Radislav Khugaev the title of Hero of Russia for actions in Mariupol, aiming to boost morale and glorify the war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports an individual accused of attempted murder for throwing a child in Sheremetyevo airport, indicating RUF's focus on domestic criminal investigations, potentially used for internal propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA also reports the Investigative Committee presented charges in the Sheremetyevo case, reinforcing the focus on internal law enforcement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Стрелков Игорь Иванович expresses criticism of RUF's foreign policy, suggesting some internal dissent that RUF is managing within its IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns reported Ukrainian language being excluded from school programs in "new regions" and Crimea, framed as a geopolitical necessity, which aims to justify cultural suppression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA's report on Saransk military enlistment offices using unethical tactics to recruit (threats, alcohol) highlights a dark side of RUF internal policy that could be used for counter-IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's post about "paratrooper brotherhood" is a typical morale-boosting IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). MoD Russia's "Top News Today" photo indicates continued control over public messaging. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы reports registration open for Night Cycling Festival in Moscow, reflecting normal civilian life in Russia, contributing to normalcy narratives. (NO MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE). «Зона СВО» shares a "good night" photo, a rare instance of non-military related IO, likely to project normalcy or build community. (NO MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE). ТАСС reports on the cost of the Krokus City Hall attack organizers, indicating RUF's continued IO on attributing blame and justifying actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы published a humorous image with no military significance, contributing to normalcy IO. (NO MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE). Colonelcassad shared photos from readers, likely pro-RUF propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Victim Blaming/Mockery: RUF channels continue to mock the devastation caused by RUF strikes and explicitly call for the destruction of Ukrainian cities, normalizing war crimes and genocidal rhetoric. Военкор Котенок's post, expressing the inevitability of war knocking on "every home" and hitting "complacent asses," is a stark example of this aggressive, dehumanizing rhetoric. Alex Parker Returns' derogatory language against Ukrainians ("хохол") and "Parker's axiom" exemplifies dehumanization and victim blaming. «Зона СВО»'s video of the Ukrainian flag falling in Kryvyi Rih aims to mock Ukraine's state. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns explicitly used "шизоидов" (schizoids) to refer to Ukrainians in the context of school education, furthering the dehumanization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). «Зона СВО» shares video of Zelenskyy's speech, with a mocking caption, indicating continued direct targeting of Ukrainian leadership in IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Global Event Manipulation: RUF channels, like «Зона СВО» and ASTRA, rapidly amplified the fake news about Trump's Nobel Peace Prize nomination for resolving the Iran-Israel conflict, demonstrating a capability to quickly inject distracting or favorable narratives into the global information space. Alex Parker Returns explicitly supported and detailed this fabricated narrative. «Зона СВО» also framed Zelenskyy's address to the Dutch parliament as "threatening Putin," aiming to portray Ukrainian leadership as aggressive. Операция Z (Military Correspondents of Russian Spring) amplified the narrative about "5 NATO countries creating a new 'Iron Curtain'" by mining borders with Russia, pushing a confrontational framing of NATO. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reiterated this narrative. TASS and Alex Parker Returns continued to propagate the fabricated Israel-Iran conflict narrative, including a Congressman moving for Trump's impeachment over it, showing continued rapid IO on this topic. However, TASS later reported that the Israeli Army Chief of Staff stated the campaign against Iran is "not over" (contradicting other RUF IO) and later still reported that Israeli army command has cancelled all restrictions and Iran's airspace is open, indicating a de-escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict. TASS also quoted Peseshkian presenting an Iranian "victory" narrative. ASTRA and Военкор Котенок also confirmed the de-escalation. This shows rapid adaptation or some inconsistency within RUF IO. ASTRA later reported Iran denied opening its airspace, adding to the fluidity. РБК-Україна's analysis of "Why Iran immediately violated the truce with Israel" suggests Ukraine's active engagement with and analysis of these shifting narratives. TASS reported the US House of Representatives rejecting Trump's impeachment, indicating continued focus on US political dynamics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Europe plans to persuade Trump to sell weapons to Ukraine, indicating active diplomatic efforts to secure continued US support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports US intelligence believes US strikes on Iran did not destroy core components of Iran's nuclear program, which could influence international perceptions of US effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad's comment on IAEA wanting to visit Iranian sites, advising against it, to control the information narrative around Iran's nuclear program. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns' video of the Ukrainian flag in Kryvyi Rih, framed as a "sign," also aims to inject symbolic, possibly superstitious, narratives into the Ukrainian information space. Два майора also shared this. WarGonzo acknowledges Western aid to Ukraine but frames it within a narrative of continued "pumping money" into Ukraine. Операция Z posted a video of Trump discussing his priorities for Ukraine, likely aiming to sow doubt about US support. НгП раZVедка also shared satirical videos of Trump related to the Iran-Israel conflict. Colonelcassad shared multiple videos of a large public gathering in Tehran, supporting "Operation Basharat Fath" and thanking armed forces, implying Iranian "victory" and public support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also shared video of celebrations in Iran, with a clown emoji, indicating Ukrainian skepticism of the "victory" claims. Операция Z also shared multiple videos of large public gatherings in Tehran celebrating "victory over Israel," reinforcing the RUF IO narrative. Kotsnews claims "World media shifted from Ukraine to the East with relief," indicating RUF IO success in diverting attention. РБК-Україна expert analysis reports on how open-source intelligence is used by RUF to target Ukrainian cities, highlighting RUF's adaptive IO/targeting capabilities. Alex Parker Returns published a photo with a caption using derogatory language against Ukrainians and asserting "Parker's axiom," indicating continued use of dehumanizing rhetoric and propaganda. «Зона СВО» (SVO Zone) posted a video portraying the Ukrainian flag being torn from a flagpole by wind in Zelenskyy's hometown, aiming to symbolize Ukraine's weakening state and demoralize. MoD Russia video on signalmen in Kherson region is part of RUF's IO to show control and effectiveness. Военкор Котенок shared a photo with a caption alluding to "new conflicts" being threatened, possibly to frame Russia as under external pressure or to justify further actions. Два майора posted a photo about "Serbs needing to sell shells," indicating RUF IO attempting to influence international arms trade narratives for their benefit. Colonelcassad shared new videos of Iran celebrations, explicitly stating the Quds Force commander is alive, aiming to refute counter-IO. Alex Parker Returns also shared similar IO, including claims of Khamenei's presence undetected by Mossad. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Netanyahu's statement that Israel "froze" Iran's nuclear project and will act with the same force against attempts to revive it, aiming to control the narrative on the Middle East. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z's claim of "enemy attacking Kazan and Kherson region" is a form of IO to acknowledge UAF actions while framing them as hostile. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Стрелков Игорь Иванович's critical commentary on RUF's foreign policy on the "Iranian crisis" is a notable instance of internal pro-war dissent within the IO space. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA's video of NATO leaders meeting in The Hague is used by RUF to show awareness of international diplomacy and potentially to counter-message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports US intelligence believes US strikes on Iran did not destroy core components of Iran's nuclear program, amplifying a narrative that undermines US military effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad's comment on IAEA wanting to visit Iranian sites aims to control the information narrative around Iran's nuclear program. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns shared a photo about Yanukovych being seen in the Canary Islands, possibly to mock him or to suggest Ukrainian political figures have abandoned Ukraine, serving as a distraction or internal IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ also shared photo of Yanukovych in Canary Islands, indicating UAF monitoring of this IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns shared a photo indicating "the result was predictable," likely an IO piece reflecting a perceived success, without specific military context, but serving to project control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Военкор Котенок reports White House dissatisfaction with US media publications stating that strikes on June 22 did not destroy Iran's nuclear program, indicating RUF IO attempting to highlight US internal dissent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Nebenzya's statement on Iran's nuclear program indicating RUF IO aligning with Iran's narrative against US/Israel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad's analysis of Chinese ICBM launcher, although not directly related to Ukraine, shows RUF's IO in monitoring global strategic military developments. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна shares videos of the "Atlant AERO" explosion, demonstrating RUF's willingness to report on internal incidents, and potentially use them to justify further actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports on the Krokus City Hall attack organizers, indicating RUF's continued IO on attributing blame and justifying actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports: Erdogan held talks with Trump in The Hague, they discussed Ukraine and the Middle East, demonstrating RUF's IO in highlighting high-level international engagement related to the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns posted a general IO message "More insights. Be good!", which is a form of psychological influence, implying access to special information. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared videos on Czech-Russian business, a soft-power IO piece for Russia, which UAF IO can use to show continued normalization efforts by RUF amidst conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian: Civilian population continues to face extremely high stress due to persistent ballistic missile threats and devastating impacts in urban centers (Dnipro, with 17 dead and 279 wounded; Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, with strike on a lyceum and three civilian deaths; and now passenger train damage). The extensive damage to civilian infrastructure will further heighten public anger and resolve against RUF, and potentially increase calls for more robust air defense. News of significant international procurement efforts and continued fortification building will provide a morale boost, demonstrating resilience and continued international support. Zelenskiy's direct address to Putin and emphasis on accountability will likely resonate with the public. The prompt and successful fundraising campaigns (e.g., Nikolaevskiy Vanok, now closed) demonstrate strong public support and engagement, boosting morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO's comment on "underperforming today's norm for rusoriz" indicates continued high morale and offensive spirit among UAF, despite challenges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Russian: Domestic audiences are being saturated with claims of tactical successes and a controlled narrative of internal stability and robust military support. The continued focus on internal security incidents and new laws serves to reinforce state control and justify actions. The extension of the "Phoenix" data verification period could be framed internally as a measure to protect citizens or enhance national security. The reports of mistreatment of mobilized soldiers (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) and criminal acts by servicemen (ASTRA) could potentially impact morale and willingness to serve if widely known, but RUF's tight information control makes this unlikely to significantly shift public sentiment. ASTRA's report on Saransk military enlistment offices attempting to recruit alcoholics/homeless through threats/alcohol highlights a potentially critical morale and personnel quality issue if widely known internally. The severe weather reports in Moscow (Новости Москвы) could also be a minor morale dampener if it disrupts daily life. The reported local dissent against political reform in Altai (ASTRA) suggests some level of internal opposition, though likely isolated. The news of wedding tours to North Korea and new baby naming laws suggests a bizarre attempt to normalize life amidst war. The discussions on military volunteerism, while intended to boost morale, also reveal underlying problems. Putin's posthumous award to a train driver in Bryansk suggests an effort to control the narrative around incidents and prevent public dissent. The new disciplinary arrest authority for commanders indicates a response to potential morale issues or insubordination within RUF. The posthumous award to a sergeant for Mariupol further aims to boost morale. Стрелков Игорь Иванович's public criticism of RUF foreign policy indicates some internal dissent that could impact morale, especially among hardline pro-war elements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns' reporting on the exclusion of Ukrainian language from school programs in "new regions" and Crimea aims to shape cultural identity and national morale in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad's video glorifying RUF stormtroopers likely aims to boost morale within military units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's post about "paratrooper brotherhood" is a typical morale-boosting message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• US Political Figures: Both RUF and UAF channels are actively monitoring and reporting on Donald Trump's statements regarding the Israel-Iran conflict, and Trump's potential meeting with Zelenskyy (confirmed by White House), underscoring the perceived impact of US political figures on the broader geopolitical landscape relevant to the conflict. Zelenskiy / Official's meeting with US Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Chris Coons, where Trump's ceasefire initiative was discussed, indicates an open diplomatic channel and a willingness to engage on all proposals while maintaining Ukraine's sovereignty. The fake news about Trump's Nobel Peace Prize, quickly propagated by RUF channels, demonstrates a capability to quickly inject distracting or favorable narratives into the global information space. Alex Parker Returns actively participating in this fabrication. TASS and Alex Parker Returns continued to propagate the fabricated Israel-Iran conflict narrative. TASS also reports the Israeli Army Chief of Staff stating the campaign against Iran is "not over" (contradicting other RUF IO) and later still reported that Israeli army command has cancelled all restrictions, and Iran's airspace is open, confirming the de-escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, and TASS quotes Peseshkian presenting an Iranian "victory" narrative. ASTRA later reported Iran denied opening its airspace, adding to the fluidity. РБК-Україна's analysis of "Why Iran immediately violated the truce with Israel" suggests Ukraine's active engagement with and analysis of these shifting narratives. TASS reported the US House of Representatives rejecting Trump's impeachment, indicating continued focus on US political dynamics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Europe plans to persuade Trump to sell weapons to Ukraine, indicating active diplomatic efforts to secure continued US support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports US intelligence believes US strikes on Iran did not destroy core components of Iran's nuclear program, which could influence international perceptions of US effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ reports Trump agreed to meet Zelenskyy at NATO summit on June 25, citing Politico. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Erdogan held talks with Trump in The Hague, discussing Ukraine and the Middle East, highlighting high-level diplomatic engagements monitored by RUF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Netherlands Aid: Netherlands' commitment to fund 600,000 drones and provide 100 anti-UAV radars is a significant boost to UAF capabilities and demonstrates continued, practical international support. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 confirmed Netherlands' new military aid package of 675 million euros. Zelenskyy's audience with the King of Netherlands further solidifies bilateral support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• German Aid: Germany's government approving an €8.3 billion military aid budget for Ukraine this year is a substantial commitment to long-term support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Czech-Slovakian Aid: Два майора reports that a Czech-Slovak company transferred a Shark aircraft to Ukraine for UAV suppression using EW, indicating new Western support for EW capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NATO/EU Engagement: Zelenskiy / Official, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 all shared photos of Zelenskyy's joint meeting with the Presidents of the European Council and European Commission and the NATO Secretary General, explicitly stating work towards "unity of all allies," demonstrating continued high-level institutional support. Zelenskyy's warning to the Dutch parliament about Russian plans for "hostile and potentially destructive operations on NATO territory" is a significant diplomatic message. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shared photos of NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte discussing Ukraine at the NATO Public Forum, further highlighting international engagement. Zelenskiy / Official's meeting with French President Macron to coordinate next steps and pressure on Russia further reinforces high-level diplomatic engagement, including discussions on Mirages and interceptor drone co-production. РБК-Україна quotes Sikorski on Europe needing to be stronger than Russia, which reinforces the message of collective defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports PACE called on Russia to create a mechanism for permanent exchange of prisoners with Ukraine, highlighting international pressure on humanitarian issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA's video of NATO leaders meeting in The Hague reinforces the visual of international unity and continued support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Other Diplomatic Engagements: TASS reports Lavrov arrived in Turkmenistan, indicating RUF continues diplomatic efforts in Central Asia. TASS reports Iran and Iraq opened their airspace, confirming de-escalation of the Middle East situation, though ASTRA later denied Iran opening airspace. TASS reports Lukashenko and Putin held a phone conversation, indicating continued high-level coordination between RF and Belarus. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Nebenzya stating US/Israel actions against Iran's nuclear facilities are a dangerous infringement on NPT authority and Iran's right to peaceful nuclear energy, indicating RUF support for Iran in diplomatic forums. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Russia proposed updated UN Security Council resolution for sustainable ceasefire in Middle East, indicating continued diplomatic efforts by RUF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Consolidated Offensive on Donetsk Axis with Intensified Ballistic Missile/UAV/KAB Strikes on Urban Centers and Force Generation Targets; Continued Northern Probing with Localized Incursions and Increased Internal Control Measures; Amplified Hybrid Warfare with Dehumanizing Rhetoric and Global Event Exploitation: RUF will likely continue high-intensity ground assaults on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka, Chasiv Yar), aiming to consolidate claimed gains (Dyleyevka, Perebudova, Petrovske/Hrekivka, "successes near Konstantinovka," Krasnolimansk direction) and exploit perceived UAF logistical vulnerabilities, supported by heavy air and artillery strikes, with increasing use of precision FPV drones against UAF logistics and artillery, including UAF UAV control points and claimed Abrams/T-72 destruction. Concurrently, RUF will conduct intensified ballistic missile (e.g., Iskander), KAB (Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, Kharkiv, Poltava, Pavlohrad, Rostov Oblast), and Shahed/Geran-2 UAV strikes on major Ukrainian urban centers (Dnipro, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, Poltava, Pavlohrad) and increasingly target UAF force generation facilities (training centers, temporary deployment areas) and critical infrastructure (railways, energy facilities, including passenger trains, and claimed military-industrial targets like "Radiozavod" in Kyiv, "Bolkhov Semiconductor Device Plant" and "Atlant AERO" in RF territory) to degrade Ukraine's long-term combat power and inflict maximum civilian casualties and psychological impact, leveraging the increased casualty figures (now 17 KIA in Dnipro, 3 KIA in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi) for domestic messaging. In Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, RUF will likely maintain or increase reconnaissance UAV activity and probing ground assaults (as evidenced by 10 repelled assaults), potentially conducting localized ground incursions or "buffer zone" expansion efforts in specific border communities, possibly backed by artillery and KABs (Sumy, Kharkiv), aiming to tie down UAF forces and create humanitarian crises, supported by narratives and visual evidence (e.g., Старше Эдды photos) of their presence. RUF will implement and enforce new internal control measures (military registration fines, police powers, stateless persons in military, national messenger, asset blocking, film censorship, "foreign agent" laws, Russian language law, parental consent for bank accounts, utility payment deadline, federal budget changes, the extension of "Phoenix" data verification, the militarization of youth through educational initiatives, the banning of organizations like "Allatra", FSB control over scientists, new name regulations, internal anti-corruption crackdowns like Rostovvodokanal arrest, and the new disciplinary arrest authority for military commanders, charging individuals for "justifying Nazism", and continued focus on domestic crime like Sheremetyevo incident, exclusion of Ukrainian language from school programs) to bolster internal stability and facilitate future mobilization and recruitment. RUF will maintain its aggressive, multi-faceted internal IO campaign, focusing on justifying internal security measures (e.g., spy captures, train driver awards, commander disciplinary powers, foreign companies returning, posthumous awards, Sheremetyevo incident, "paratrooper brotherhood", Krokus City Hall attack organizers) and showcasing domestic support for the war, while also increasingly engaging in hybrid warfare by fabricating events and spreading disinformation globally to distract from the conflict in Ukraine and sow discord among international partners. This will include continued, explicit dehumanizing rhetoric against Ukrainian leadership and military (e.g., "шизоидов," "хохлов"). RUF will continue to suppress information in occupied territories, evidenced by the mobile internet shutdown in Kherson. RUF will continue to leverage open-source intelligence for targeting as a tactical adaptation. RUF will continue to shape the narrative around the Middle East conflict, including Netanyahu's statements on Iran's nuclear program and the claimed ineffectiveness of US strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Coordinated Breakthrough on Donetsk/Luhansk Axes Paired with a Major Ground Offensive from Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts, Under Cover of a Nationwide Ballistic Missile Saturation Campaign and False-Flag Operations, and Escalated Information Warfare: RUF will launch a highly coordinated, multi-wave ballistic missile (Iskander) and KAB saturation attack on critical UAF military and government command nodes, major urban centers, and key infrastructure across Ukraine (Kyiv, Dnipro, Poltave, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa), specifically targeting railway hubs and energy infrastructure, designed to overwhelm UAF AD and cause significant disruption and panic, leveraging the increased casualty figures for domestic justification. Simultaneously, RUF will launch a major ground offensive aimed at achieving an operational breakthrough on the Donetsk and/or Luhansk axes, leveraging heavy air support and exploiting any UAF repositioning, with the objective of reaching key operational lines (e.g., Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration). Critically, this would be complemented by a major ground offensive launched from Sumy Oblast and/or Kharkiv Oblast, aimed at seizing significant territory, creating a deep "buffer zone," or reaching key objectives, forcing Ukraine to commit substantial reserves to a new northern front, potentially diverting forces from critical eastern sectors. This entire operation would be conducted under the cover of a significantly escalated RUF internal IO campaign emphasizing the need for decisive action against "terrorists" and "abductors" from Ukraine, potentially accompanied by false-flag operations (e.g., attacks on border communities, critical infrastructure in RF) attributed to Ukraine or "Western provocateurs" to further justify the intensified war effort, mobilize domestic support, and manipulate international response. The IO campaign will escalate its dehumanization and incitement to violence, potentially leading to increased targeted assassinations or overt threats. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 0-6 hours, starting from 242137Z JUN 25):

  • RUF: Expect continued RUF ballistic missile/KAB/UAV threats/strikes in central, eastern, and southern Ukraine, with a focus on urban centers and potential military targets (including claimed missile/armored vehicle production plant, and "Radiozavod" in Kyiv). RUF will continue to disseminate claims of tactical gains in Donetsk/Luhansk Oblast (including "successes near Konstantinovka," Krasnolimansk direction, Dyleyevka capture) and use its IO to amplify domestic security narratives (e.g., spy captures, train driver awards, commander disciplinary powers, foreign companies returning, posthumous awards, Sheremetyevo incident, exclusion of Ukrainian language from schools, Krokus City Hall attack organizers) and mock Ukrainian casualties, and exploit international events (Israel-Iran conflict, NATO summit, Serbia arms exports, Iranian nuclear program). Continued reconnaissance UAV activity and probing ground assaults, potentially localized ground "advances," and KAB strikes in Sumy and Kursk Oblasts. Increased focus on domestic messaging related to new laws, social benefits, and recruitment, and the implications of the extension of "Phoenix" data verification. RUF will continue to publicize successes like the Rybar video on ambushing enemy transport, and new MoD videos on destroying defenses, and Воин DV's claims. The fabricated "victory" of Iran over Israel will continue to be pushed by some channels, while others shift to new narratives around de-escalation, impeachment, or other political developments. RUF will also continue to promote the "Iron Curtain" narrative regarding NATO mining borders. Expect continued UAV attacks on Kherson Oblast, as reported by Saldo, and continued UAV threats/strikes in Saratov and Tatarstan, as well as new strikes on RF industrial facilities like "Atlant AERO" in Taganrog and Rostov Oblast. New KAB launches in eastern Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, and UAVs in Sumy (southwest), Dnipropetrovsk (Synelnykivskyi district), Odesa (Ovidipol/Chernomorsk with 14 drones in Black Sea, Vylkove), Poltava, Pavlohrad, and Zaporizhzhia city confirm ongoing air activity. Air raid sirens in Saratov and Engels confirm UAF deep strike activity. TASS reports Erdogan and Trump discussed Ukraine and the Middle East in The Hague.
  • UAF Decision Point: Maintain highest AD readiness across all threatened oblasts, prioritizing interception of ballistic missiles and KABs, particularly given the recent alert for Sumy Oblast (even if cancelled) and Odesa. Immediately verify RUF claims regarding Dyleyevka, Perebudova and Petrovske/Hrekivka, and "successes near Konstantinovka," Krasnolimansk direction and assess the security of the surrounding defensive lines and logistical routes. Investigate confirmed RUF ground activity and new map/claims of "advance" in Sumy "buffer zone" urgently, including the claims and photos by Старше Эдды. Proactively monitor RUF IO channels for any new escalatory narratives or shifts in focus on domestic security and geopolitical events (e.g., Israel-Iran, NATO, Serbia). Continue to highlight RUF's deliberate civilian targeting and war crimes, especially the escalating casualties in Dnipro (now 17 KIA, 279 wounded) and the railway infrastructure strike, and the civilian deaths in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. Continue high-level diplomatic engagement (e.g., with US Senators, EU, NATO, France, Netherlands) to secure ongoing support, and address RUF disinformation about such engagements. Proactively debunk the fabricated Israel-Iran "victory" and Trump's Nobel Prize nomination, adapting quickly to the shifting RUF narrative on this. Address challenges faced by frontline units (e.g., damaged vehicles). Monitor the new disciplinary powers for RUF commanders for any implications on internal RUF behavior. Monitor and counter the new cultural suppression via exclusion of Ukrainian language in schools. Monitor the outcomes of Erdogan-Trump discussions.

• Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):

  • RUF: RUF will likely maintain or increase ballistic missile/KAB/UAV strikes on Ukrainian urban centers and critically assess damage to claimed military-industrial/force generation/logistical targets. Ground pressure on the Donetsk/Luhansk axes will likely continue, potentially with increased special forces activity and attempts to exploit any UAF vulnerabilities. Increased localized ground activity and/or shaping operations should be expected in specific border areas of Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, following continued reconnaissance UAV activity, KAB strikes, and "buffer zone" claims, aiming to tie down UAF forces or conduct limited incursions. RUF will maintain a dual-track IO strategy, attempting to keep international attention on other crises while escalating narratives justifying its war in Ukraine and implementing new internal regulations and expanding recruitment efforts, including for military-patriotic youth programs, and the continued implementation of data control measures like "Phoenix" verification, and increased state control over information and society, particularly regarding education and language in occupied territories. RUF will continue to leverage Netanyahu's statements on Iran to control the Middle East narrative, and will react to diplomatic overtures (e.g., Europe to Trump on arms sales), and continue to amplify perceived US/Israel failures.
  • UAF Decision Point: Sustain intensified AD operations and enhance force protection for civilian and critical infrastructure targets, including railways and energy facilities, and particularly for UAF training centers, temporary deployment areas, schools, and logistics hubs. Continue to reinforce defensive lines on the Donetsk and Luhansk axes, and be prepared for continued RUF ground assaults, including attempts to cut logistical lines. Reinforce defensive posture, intelligence, and reconnaissance, particularly with EW and counter-drone systems (e.g., new Shark aircraft), in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblast border communities in anticipation of increased RUF activity or incursions. Prioritize rapid integration and deployment of newly acquired FPV drones and incoming international AD/anti-UAV systems from partners like the Netherlands and Germany. Publicize UAF successes (repelled assaults, aid packages, training, RUF oil depot strikes, SBU successes, 3rd Assault Brigade actions, UAF SOF actions, Orlan-30 downing, drone successes in Sumy, strike on Bolkhov Semiconductor Device Plant, strike on "Atlant AERO" factory, Rostov Oblast strikes) and international support to counter RUF narratives and boost morale, while acknowledging the severe impact of RUF terror strikes on civilians and coordinating humanitarian relief. Continue to push for tighter sanctions enforcement against companies supplying RUF with military components. Actively counter RUF's attempts to control information in occupied territories, including cultural suppression. Address unit-level material needs and challenges transparently. Publicly highlight the professionalism of UAF emergency services in dealing with RUF attacks. Continue diplomatic efforts to secure further military aid, including influencing US political figures, and press for humanitarian issues like prisoner exchanges (PACE).

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6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Surge all-source ISR assets (IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT) to Dyleyevka, Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast), Petrovske/Hrekivka (Luhansk Oblast), and Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts. Immediately verify RUF claims of capture/presence, particularly the claimed "advance" in Sumy and the "buffer zone" (including assessing Старше Эдды's report), and "successes near Konstantinovka," and "Krasnolimansk direction." Assess tactical implications, particularly regarding UAF logistical routes (Konstantinovka) and any northern incursions (including newly mapped areas).
2. IMMEDIATE: Conduct urgent, detailed BDA on all ballistic missile strikes in Dnipro and reported RUF FPV drone strikes. Prioritize specific targets (e.g., railway lines, civilian institutions, UAF deployment areas, ammo depots) and the extent of damage to inform AD and force protection. Identify munition types (e.g., Iskander) and new RUF drone tactics. Verify RUF claim of "locomotive repair plant" strike in Dnipro, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's claim of hitting a "rocket and armored vehicle production plant," and the extent of damage to the passenger train. Confirm the use of Iskander missiles in Dnipro as reported by Poddubny. Verify civilian casualties and specific damage in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi lyceum. Verify claimed strikes on "Radiozavod" in Kyiv.
3. HIGH: Prioritize all-source ISR (IMINT, SIGINT, EWINT) on Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Focus on the border areas to confirm RUF "buffer zone" claims or any build-up for a larger offensive, including troop concentrations and logistics, especially given KAB strikes and Kotsnews' claims of "advance." Determine precise intent behind persistent RUF reconnaissance UAV activity and ground probing.
4. HIGH: Conduct detailed SIGINT and HUMINT on RUF communication lines and troop movements on the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Sumy/Kharkiv axes, specifically to identify any further attempts to cross rivers, establish new bridgeheads, or intensify special forces operations or larger ground movements.
5. HIGH: Monitor RUF and pro-RUF IO channels for any further shifts in narrative regarding domestic security and "pro-Ukrainian" activities in RF territory, as this indicates RUF's strategic intent to justify internal actions and frame the conflict. Pay close attention to mockery of civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, the amplification of geopolitical narratives (e.g., "Iron Curtain," fabricated Israel-Iran conflict, Iranian nuclear program), and explicit dehumanizing rhetoric (e.g., Военкор Котенок's post, Alex Parker Returns' derogatory language, including "шизоидов," "хохлов"). Track RUF recruitment efforts, the implications of the extension of "Phoenix" data verification until November 1st for internal control, and the new "traditional values" indoctrination initiative for youth. Investigate reports of internal discipline breakdown (e.g., serviceman criminality). Monitor the narratives around the Israel-Iran conflict (e.g., Trump's Nobel Peace Prize nomination, impeachment moves, de-escalation, Iranian "victory" claims, Netanyahu's statements, claimed US strike failures) for how RUF channels adapt and use them, noting inconsistencies. Monitor reports of RUF using open-source intelligence for targeting. Monitor new disciplinary powers for RUF commanders and how this is applied. Monitor internal dissent from pro-war elements (e.g., Стрелков). Monitor the new cultural suppression via exclusion of Ukrainian language in schools. Monitor RUF's reporting on Erdogan-Trump talks.
6. HIGH: Verify the specific targets and BDA of the "Rubikon" BLA strikes reported by RUF in Donetsk/Kherson directions, specifically the claimed ammunition depot and the truck/artillery piece. Also verify the RUF claim of destroying a UAF UAV control point in Kharkiv Oblast and the claim of Abrams destruction by Lancet in Sumy Oblast, and Воин DV's claim of destroying a UAF T-72 tank, ATV, and vehicle with personnel, and their new claimed hits in Karl Marx (Mirne). Clarify the identity of the tank in Colonelcassad's video to ascertain if it is indeed an Abrams or another type. Verify Colonelcassad's claim of a Russian DRG ambush on a vehicle with Ukrainian servicemen.
7. HIGH: Assess the impact of RUF dropping nearly 100 bombs on its own and occupied territories since the start of the year. This data provides critical insight into RUF munitions control and accuracy, and potential internal issues.
8. HIGH: Conduct BDA on the UAF strike reported by Mash na Donbasse causing power outage in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
9. HIGH: Verify the UAF strike on Bolkhov Semiconductor Device Plant (BZNP) on May 21, and the explosion at "Atlant AERO" factory in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, Russia. Assess the impact on RUF military production.
10. MEDIUM: Obtain more information on the reported missile strike on the "Espanyola" marine base in Crimea. Determine if they are results of UAF strikes, internal sabotage, or accidents, to inform future planning. Also, thoroughly assess Rybar's report on UAF activation in Black Sea/Crimea area, and the specific details of "Organization and conduct of an ambush on enemy transport" video. Monitor the impact and duration of the mobile internet shutdown in occupied Kherson Oblast. Investigate the cause and implications of Aeroflot flight adjustments to Kazan, Samara, and Saratov, Penza, and the UAV threats in Saratov and Tatarstan, and the lifting of restrictions at Tambov airport and Saratov airport. Investigate the alleged UAV attack and damage at "Forte Arena" stadium and grain warehouse in Rostov Oblast.

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

1. URGENT: Maintain highest AD readiness across Kyiv, Dnipro, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Poltava, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, and Odesa Oblast, particularly in Sumy Oblast given recent alerts and Odesa given current UAV threats, and Dnipropetrovsk given new UAV threat, Poltava, Pavlohrad, and Zaporizhzhia city. Prioritize assets capable of intercepting ballistic missiles (e.g., Iskander) and counter-UAV systems, given the recent surge in attacks and confirmed high civilian casualties (now 17 KIA), and demonstrated strikes on passenger trains and schools. Ensure rapid re-engagement capabilities and saturation defense.
2. HIGH: Review and enhance force protection measures for all critical infrastructure, especially railway hubs and lines, energy facilities, military training facilities, temporary deployment areas, schools, and hospitals in central and eastern Ukraine, given the direct hits on civilian infrastructure and a train, and UAF facilities. Disperse valuable assets and explore hardening measures, including anti-drone tunnels for logistics routes.
3. CRITICAL: Accelerate the delivery and integration of the 600,000 drones and 100 anti-UAV radars pledged by the Netherlands, and leverage the €8.3 billion from Germany for AD and other critical needs, including the new Shark EW aircraft from Czech-Slovakia. Prioritize training personnel on these new systems.

6.3. Ground Forces:

1. IMMEDIATE: Confirm or deny RUF claims of Dyleyevka, Perebudova and Petrovske/Hrekivka capture, and "successes near Konstantinovka," and "Krasnolimansk direction." If confirmed, immediately reinforce defensive positions in those sectors and establish counter-attack plans, particularly focusing on protecting logistics routes to Konstantinovka.
2. URGENT: Continue to reinforce defensive positions on the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia axes, specifically focusing on preventing further RUF breakthroughs and consolidating existing lines. Be prepared for increased special forces activity targeting logistics.
3. URGENT: Elevate readiness and reinforce defensive lines and fortifications in specific border areas of Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts (including near any claimed "buffer zones"). Be prepared for intensified RUF ground activity or a limited new offensive, following the increased reconnaissance UAV activity, KAB strikes, and RUF claims/assaults. Prioritize defensive engineering efforts shown by 23rd Engineer Regiment and anti-drone tunnel construction in Zaporizhzhia, and continue basic military training. Support localized counter-actions as demonstrated by 3rd Assault Brigade, Ghost of Khortytsia drone operations, UAF SOF actions on Pokrovsk direction, and 128th OGShBr counter-UAV actions, and STERNENKO's reported drone successes in Sumy and Kursk. Continue to support unit-level logistical needs like vehicle acquisition for drone units (e.g., 421st Separate UAV Battalion "Sapsan"), leveraging public support (as shown by Nikolaevskiy Vanok's success), and addressing unit-level material needs for equipment repair/replacement (as shown by Anaotliy Shtefan's pleas).
4. HIGH: Continue accelerating training programs and recruitment efforts for drone units and EW teams, emphasizing their critical role in both ISR and offensive/defensive operations. Leverage newly acquired FPV drones effectively and prioritize drone repair capabilities.
5. HIGH: Support initiatives to bolster Ukraine's domestic military-industrial complex through funding and allowing partial export of arms, as reported by RBC-Ukraine, to enhance long-term sustainment.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Issue rapid, verifiable counter-narratives to RUF claims of Dyleyevka, Perebudova, Petrovske/Hrekivka, Sumy/Kharkiv "buffer zone" capture/presence, "successes near Konstantinovka," "Krasnolimansk direction" or attempting to recapture Mali Shcherbaky. Provide transparent, evidence-based updates on UAF defensive operations, highlighting repelled assaults and fortification building, and showcasing successful localized counter-actions.
2. URGENT: Launch a globally coordinated IO campaign to highlight Russia's deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure, including schools, hospitals, railways (passenger train), and energy facilities, and the escalating number of civilian casualties (now 17 KIA in Dnipro, 3 KIA in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi). Expose RUF's continuous war crimes and its blatant disregard for international humanitarian law, particularly the "mockery" from RUF channels of civilian suffering and the genocidal rhetoric (e.g., "шизоидов", "хохлов"). Use the Dnipro casualty figures (17 dead, 279 wounded) and Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi strike to underscore the brutality. Emphasize Zelenskyy's direct address to Putin on war crimes. Highlight the resilience of UAF civilian services (e.g., police first aid in Dnipro).
3. HIGH: Publicize UAF successes in drone procurement (Netherlands aid, German aid, Czech-Slovak EW aircraft) and fortification building, and drone repair capabilities, as well as ongoing military training. Emphasize Ukraine's resilience, innovation, and growing self-sufficiency in defense, while also acknowledging the vital role of international support. Publicize successful UAF deep strikes on RUF territory (e.g., oil depots, Kursk logistics, Bolkhov Semiconductor Device Plant, "Atlant AERO" factory, Rostov Oblast strikes) and RUF KIA. Highlight SBU counter-intelligence successes (FSB agent jailing). Highlight successful counter-UAV operations. Publicize Ukrainian success in evacuating citizens from Iran. Highlight the bankruptcy of Russian microelectronics enterprises. Highlight specific unit successes (e.g., 3rd Assault Brigade, Black Raven) and their reliance on public support.
4. HIGH: Counter RUF narratives that attempt to demoralize Ukrainian population or frame the conflict as an inevitable defeat. Reiterate Ukraine's principled stand for peace based on territorial integrity and sovereignty. Counter Russian attempts to culturally oppress (e.g., exclusion of Ukrainian language from schools). Address RUF symbolic IO (e.g., the falling flag in Kryvyi Rih) with strong, positive counter-messaging.
5. HIGH: Collaborate with international partners to fact-check and expose RUF's internal propaganda related to domestic security and "pro-Ukrainian" threats, demonstrating their use of these narratives to justify repression and sustained aggression. Proactively address RUF attempts to link Ukraine to broader geopolitical crises and their claims of "failed isolation." Highlight the significance of RUF KIA data from channels like БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС to counter RUF's narrative of minimal losses. Counter the new youth indoctrination efforts in Russia. Debunk the fabricated Israel-Iran conflict narratives and the use of the Trump Nobel Prize nomination to divert attention, and adapt quickly to shifting narratives (e.g., de-escalation of Israel-Iran). Highlight RUF's use of open-source intelligence for targeting. Monitor and analyze RUF's attempts to influence international arms markets (e.g., Serbia).

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END OF REPORT