Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues to claim "liberation" of Perebudova and control over Dyleyevka, describing it as a "powerful fortified area" on the approaches to Konstantinovka, allowing "fire control" over UAF logistics. "Операция Z" published video claiming "Dyleevka is under our control," showing a heavily damaged building with Russian flags. The UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) continues to report active clashes near Dyliyivka (Toretsk direction) and Pokrovsk direction (Promin, Novotoretske, Myrolubivka, Lysivka, Novoukrayinka, Novoserhiyivka, Udachne, Myrnohrad, Oleksiyivka, Popiv Yar, Malynivka, Koptyevye and towards Shakhove, Volodymyrivka, Molodetske, Serhiyivka, Novopavlivka), confirming active combat in these claimed areas. Rybar indicates RUF successes near Konstantinovka. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports UAF Special Operations Forces destroyed a Russian assault group on the Pokrovsk direction. "Сливочный каприз" (Creamy Caprice) shared a photo captioned "24.06.25 Chasov Yar - Shevchenko" (likely Chasiv Yar area), indicating continued RUF focus on these critical sectors. Два майора published video from Konstantinovka direction, Yablonovka, showing drone strikes on enemy positions and assault actions by RUF soldiers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on Perebudova, Dyleyevka; UAF confirms active combat; LOW CONFIDENCE – independent verification of RUF control over these settlements and the tactical implications for Konstantinovka; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Rybar's claim, requires verification; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF successful action reported by Butusov Plus; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - "Сливочный каприз" photo, indicates activity in Chasiv Yar direction; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Два майора video of combat in Konstantinovka direction).
• Luhansk Oblast: RUF sources continue to claim the "liberation" of Petrovske (Hrekivka), asserting that "LNR is completely liberated." The UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports clashes yesterday near Tverdokhlibove, Ridkodub, Karpivka, Kolodyazi and towards Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyny, Novyi Myr, Olhivka (Lyman direction), indicating active combat in the broader area of Hrekivka/Petrovske. Оперативний ЗСУ (Operational ZSU) reports the 3rd Assault Brigade is pushing occupiers out near Ridkodub. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shared video titled "The Third Assault is knocking out the occupiers in the area of Ridkodub!" Николаевский Ванёк also reports the 3rd Assault Brigade is "knocking out occupiers" near Ridkodub. Басурин (Basurin) claims RUF confidently advancing on Krasnolimansk direction with video of artillery fire. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared video of destruction of an enemy Grad MLRS system in Lyman direction, Donetsk Oblast by a UAV. Colonelcassad and Военкор Котенок posted aerial footage of the Serebryanskoye forestry, describing it as modern combat zone with "fiber optic cables" from FPV drones, indicating intense drone warfare in this sector. Оперативний ЗСУ also shared video of Serebryanskoye forest, describing it as "legendary" and "covered in fiber optics from drones," confirming intense drone warfare in this sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on Petrovske/Hrekivka, UAF confirms active combat; LOW CONFIDENCE – verification of RUF control over Petrovske/Hrekivka; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report of counter-action and supporting video; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Basurin's claim, unverified; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Colonelcassad/Voenkor Kotenok reports on Serebryanskoye forestry, indicating active combat and high drone usage; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF video of Grad destruction; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Оперативний ЗСУ video on Serebryanskoye forest).
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): RUF launched ballistic missiles against Dnipro city. Updated reports from UAF official sources and local administration (Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Олександр Вілкул) confirm an increase in casualties: 17 dead (РБК-Україна, Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), ASTRA) and 279 wounded, including 27 children (РБК-Україна, citing OMA). Оперативний ЗСУ states 15 dead and over 200 injured, citing OMA. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports four explosions in Dnipropetrovsk industrial zone, likely Iskander. RUF sources claim a "powerful strike" was made against a "locomotive repair plant in Dnipropetrovsk," framing it as a strike on UAF logistics. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (Paratrooper's Diary) claimed RUF forces hit a "rocket and armored vehicle production plant" in Dnipropetrovsk. Zelenskiy / Official also shared video of a damaged passenger train, indicating a direct hit on railway infrastructure. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration) explicitly states the passenger train "Odesa - Zaporizhzhia" was damaged. РБК-Україна reports an expert called the strike a "targeted attack or psychological terror," aimed at hitting moving objects like trains, making them difficult to intercept. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF/Independent sources on impacts and casualties, including the increase to 17 KIA and 279 wounded; HIGH CONFIDENCE – Civilian targeting; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on specific military target within Dnipro, requires BDA; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Damage to passenger train confirmed; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Poddubny reporting on Iskander use; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claim on missile/armored vehicle plant, requires BDA; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Оперативний ЗСУ casualty update; HIGH CONFIDENCE - РБК-Україна expert analysis). Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reported continued enemy attacks on Nikopol region, specifically Nikopol, Marhanets, Myrove, Chervonohryhorivka, Pokrovsk communities, with associated damage photos. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Sumy Oblast: The UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) explicitly reports UAF forces repelled 10 RUF assaults yesterday in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, confirming active combat and persistent RUF pressure in the border region. A new map from Z комитет + карта СВО on the Sumy direction (June 13-23, 2025) highlights territorial changes. STERNENKO shared video of defensive positions in Sumy region. Kotsnews reports on "the first report on the advance of the Russian Armed Forces in Sumy Oblast." Air Force of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports a destroyed Abrams tank in Sumy Oblast due to Lancet. STERNENKO also shared video of "Wings to Hell" (UAF drone unit) destroying a "Buryat samurai" (RUF soldier) with a tactical net in Sumy Oblast. Старше Эдды (Starshe Eddy) published an "Exclusive. First report from the 'buffer zone' in Sumy Oblast," including multiple photos depicting a rural road, damaged houses, and debris, aiming to validate RUF claims of presence. Николаевский Ванёк reports a collection for transport for drone operators of 421st Separate UAV Battalion "Sapsan" on the Sumy direction. STERNENKO reports on "drone safety" (implying UAF drone activity or RUF air defense focus) in Kursk, Lipetsk, Belgorod, Saratov, Voronezh, Tambov, and Penza Oblasts. Игорь Артамонов (Governor, Lipetsk Oblast) reported "UAV threat cancelled" (Отбой красного уровня «Угроза атаки БПЛА»), indicating recent UAF drone activity and RUF AD response in Lipetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF repelled assaults in Sumy/Kursk; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claim of "buffer zone" in Sumy, active combat confirmed; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF defensive preparations in Sumy, RUF KAB strikes in Sumy; LOW CONFIDENCE - Abrams destruction claim, unverified; HIGH CONFIDENCE - STERNENKO drone footage; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Starshe Eddy reporting and photos, intent is to confirm RUF presence; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Mykolaiv Vanok's report on UAF drone unit transport collection; HIGH CONFIDENCE - STERNENKO drone safety report; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Igor Artamonov's update).
• Kharkiv Oblast: UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Ozerne, Mala Vovcha of Kharkiv region. Clashes yesterday near Dvorichna, Hlyboke, Vovchanski Khutory, Krasne Pershe and Fyholivka (South Slobozhansky direction) and near Kindrashivka, Kruhlyakivka and towards Pischane, Petropavlivka (Kupyansk direction). MoD Russia published video of Grad MLRS strike near the border in Kharkiv region. Привид Хортиці (Ghost of Khortytsia) shared video of UAF drone operations targeting enemy positions and a boat in Slobozhanshchyna, demonstrating UAF counter-action capabilities. Colonelcassad shared video claiming destruction of an enemy UAV control point in Kharkiv Oblast (likely a UAF asset). (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports on RUF airstrikes and clashes; HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF MLRS activity in Kharkiv; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF drone operations in Kharkiv; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim of UAV control point destruction).
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Novoselivka, Mala Tokmachka of Zaporizhzhia region. UAF Air Force reports activity of RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration is scaling up protection for Defense Forces by constructing new anti-drone tunnels for logistics routes. Air Force of Ukraine reports missile danger and KAB launches in Zaporizhzhia. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued an alert for ballistic missile threat from the southern direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared video of 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade operators downing a Russian "Orlan-30" reconnaissance UAV near Zaporizhzhia with an FPV drone. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration) reports RUF conducted an airstrike on one of the settlements in Polohy district. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also shared photos of housing restoration in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shared photos of graduation ceremonies at Komyshuvakha Gymnasium "Dzherelo", indicating civilian life continues despite war. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shared a photo postcard titled "Melitopol is Ukraine," indicating continued focus on occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official reports on AD alerts; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF counter-UAV action and supporting video; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Zaporizhzhia OMA on airstrike; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Zaporizhzhia OMA on housing restoration; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Zaporizhzhia OMA on graduation ceremony; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Zaporizhzhia OMA on Melitopol). Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition claimed a British mercenary was killed near Mali Shcherbaky during a UAF attempt to recapture the area, with the mercenary's mother blaming Ukrainian commanders for a "suicidal mission." (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, requires verification).
• Kherson Oblast: UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 6 Russian army assaults in the Kherson direction. "Два майора" shared video of FPV drone and UAV-KT combat work by 127th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade in Kherson direction, showing a struck truck and artillery piece. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reported that RUF began to disconnect mobile internet in the occupied part of Kherson Oblast, citing residents. Николаевский Ванёк reports UAF "tigers" captured another prisoner on the left bank of Kherson Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (Paratrooper's Diary) shared a photo/map of the "Kherson direction," likely indicating ongoing RUF interest or operations in the area. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shared a video claiming the "Espanyola" special forces marine detachment thwarted UAF landing plans on Crimea, showing a burning building. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official report; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF combat footage, unverified BDA by UAF; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF reporting on RUF internet shutdown; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF capture of prisoner; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo/map of Kherson direction, indicating continued RUF focus; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА video, unverified BDA, likely propaganda).
• Odesa Oblast: STERNENKO reports that Vasya Lomachenko is upset due to the Russian strike on a lyceum in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF reporting on strike).
• Other Axes (UAF General Staff Reports):
  • Siversk direction: Clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka.
  • Kramatorsk direction: Clashes yesterday near Novomarkove, Chasiv Yar and towards Mykolayivka, Stupochok, Pryvillya, Bondarne. "Сливочный каприз" (Creamy Caprice) shared a photo captioned "24.06.25 Chasov Yar - Shevchenko" (likely Chasiv Yar area), indicating continued RUF focus on these critical sectors.
  • Novopavlivka direction: Clashes yesterday near Bahatyr, Novosilka, Zaporizhzhya, Perebudova, Komar, Myrne, Shevchenko, Vilne Pole and towards Voskresenka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - "Сливочный каприз" photo, indicates activity in Chasiv Yar direction).
• RF Territory (Various Regions): ASTRA and RUF MoD via TASS claimed Russian air defense forces destroyed 34 Ukrainian UAVs over various regions of Russia, with TASS specifically claiming 18 UAVs shot down in three hours. TASS later updated this, claiming 22 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over various regions of Russia in 3.5 hours (also reported by ASTRA). Igor Artamonov (Governor, Lipetsk Oblast) reports a UAV threat in Usmansky and Dobrinsky districts, now "cancelled." Оперативний ЗСУ shared photos claiming 8 RUF oil depots after drone attacks by UAV forces. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows video of a RUF soldier killed by UAF drone. РБК-Україна reports RUF has dropped almost 100 bombs on its own and occupied territories since the beginning of the year. STERNENKO shared video of "Novem Group" destroying RUF logistics in Kursk Oblast, showing a vehicle (likely an ATV) hit by a drone with subsequent explosions and fire. ТАСС reports "Aeroflot" is adjusting flight schedules to Kazan, Samara, and Saratov due to restrictions, indicating possible security concerns or air traffic control issues in these regions. ASTRA confirms "Aeroflot" flight adjustments, further solidifying this information. AV БогомаZ (Governor of Bryansk Oblast) posted photos about road network development in Bryansk Oblast, including discussions on road safety, which may be relevant to logistics given its proximity to the border. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims, RUF internal reporting on UAV threats; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF claims on oil depot strikes; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF combat footage; HIGH CONFIDENCE - RBC-Ukraine report on RUF dropping bombs on own territory; HIGH CONFIDENCE - STERNENKO video of strike on RUF logistics in Kursk; HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS/ASTRA reports on Aeroflot flight adjustments; HIGH CONFIDENCE - AV БогомаZ post on road development; HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS updated UAV claims; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Igor Artamonov's update). Рыбарь shares video message captioned "Organization and conduct of an ambush on enemy transport." (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Rybar video, unverified BDA). ASTRA reported on a new initiative in St. Petersburg where "participants of the war with Ukraine will instill 'traditional values' in schoolchildren," indicating further militarization of Russian society. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kotsnews claimed "Kyiv continues to hold 32 Kursky residents hostage." (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified). Новости Москвы (News of Moscow) shared videos of heavy rain and strong winds in Moscow, indicating severe weather conditions that could impact air operations or ground movement if sustained. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (Military Correspondents of Russian Spring) posted video of aftermath of an alleged enemy attempt to destroy "Espanyola" marine detachment. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified). STERNENKO shared photos captioned "Interesting fact 1," but image analysis could not identify military context. (NO MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE). Alex Parker Returns shared video of Ukrainian flag in Kryvyi Rih, depicting it as a "sign" related to Zelenskyy. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, symbolic). Alex Parker Returns and TASS reported on Republican Congressman Buddy Carter nominating Trump for Nobel Peace Prize for Israel-Iran ceasefire. Alex Parker Returns explicitly claimed "Iran announced victory over Israel." TASS also reported on another Congressman, Green, moving for Trump's impeachment for strikes on Iran, indicating continued rapid IO on Israel-Iran. ТАСС also reports that the Chief of Staff of the Israeli Army stated the campaign against Iran is "not over" and a new phase is ahead, but the priority is Gaza, contradicting some RUF IO narratives. РБК-Україна reports "Why Iran immediately violated the truce with Israel: political scientist's opinion," indicating a critical Ukrainian perspective on the shifting Middle East narrative. ТАСС now reports that Israeli army command has cancelled all restrictions for the population, indicating a de-escalation of the Israel-Iran situation, further confirming the rapid shift in narrative. ASTRA also reports Ben Gurion Airport returning to full operation. Военкор Котенок also reports Iran preparing to open airspace and Israeli airports returning to normal, reinforcing the de-escalation. ТАСС reports that Peseshkian, in an address to the Iranian people, stated Israel failed to achieve its goals and paid "a terrible price" for aggression against Iran, presenting a new Iranian victory narrative. Colonelcassad reports Iran will continue uranium enrichment despite damages, stating it's a red line. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO on Middle East/Trump; HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS report on Israeli Army Chief of Staff, contradicting RUF IO; HIGH CONFIDENCE - RBC-Ukraine critical analysis of Middle East events; HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS/ASTRA/Voenkor Kotenok on de-escalation in Israel; HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS on Iranian "victory" narrative; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Colonelcassad on Iran's nuclear program). ASTRA reported on Russian court deeming "Allatra" movement "extremist." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reported on legal protocols against Apple and Kinopoisk for "LGBT propaganda." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Fighterbomber posted a photo/video titled "tactical analysis," but the content was an empty caption, thus no military significance. (NO MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reported on a Russian Yamal LNG tanker filled with gas in Rotterdam. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы reports Russia has launched wedding tours to North Korea for 350,000 rubles, reflecting an unusual internal news item. Новости Москвы also reports the State Duma is developing a list of permitted names for children. (LOW MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal news). НгП раZVедка shared videos of Donald Trump with a satirical caption about Iran and Israel, indicating continued RUF IO on US politics and global events. Colonelcassad shared multiple videos of a large public gathering in Tehran, supporting "Operation Basharat Fath" and thanking armed forces, implying Iranian "victory" and public support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also shared video of celebrations in Iran, with a clown emoji, indicating Ukrainian skepticism of the "victory" claims. Операция Z also shared multiple videos of large public gatherings in Tehran celebrating "victory over Israel," reinforcing the RUF IO narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF/Ukrainian IO on Iran). TASS reports Lavrov arrived in Turkmenistan, indicating continued Russian diplomatic activity in Central Asia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports arrest of "Rostovvodokanal" director in Rostov region, indicating RUF internal corruption/crackdown. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports Ukrainian "Naftogaz" sent "Gazprom" official demand for $1.37bn payment, indicating ongoing legal/economic disputes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Филолог в засаде reports a meeting on military volunteerism in Russia, and shares video of a female volunteer discussing problems, indicating challenges in RUF volunteer support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kotsnews reports world media shifted from Ukraine to the Middle East, indicating RUF IO success in diversion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

• Air Force of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, indicating suitable weather for tactical aviation. Colonelcassad's animated strike map shows widespread missile/drone activity across Ukraine for 23-24 JUN, indicating suitable conditions for air operations. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued an alert for ballistic missile threat from the southern direction, and a new alert for missile danger in Sumy Oblast, but later issued a "threat cancelled" alert. Новости Москвы (News of Moscow) reports heavy rain and strong winds up to 15 m/s in Moscow today and tomorrow (24-25 JUN), which could potentially impact RUF operations if the weather extends to border regions, but is more likely localized to central Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора's video from Kryvyi Rih shows a Ukrainian flag waving on a flagpole against a cloudy sky, suggesting typical summer weather or passing fronts, not severe conditions. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Environmental context).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF):
  • Ground Forces: UAF maintains active defensive operations across multiple axes, repelling assaults in Sumy/Kursk, Kherson, and engaging in clashes in Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka directions. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration is actively constructing anti-drone tunnels to protect logistics. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the 3rd Assault Brigade is pushing occupiers out near Ridkodub (Lyman direction). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provided video evidence of the 3rd Assault Brigade's successful operations near Ridkodub. Николаевский Ванёк also posted video of the 3rd Assault Brigade "knockings out occupiers" near Ridkodub. РБК-Україна also shared video of the 3rd Assault Brigade counterattacking in the east, destroying an RUF platoon. Привид Хортиці (Ghost of Khortytsia) showcases UAF drone operations in Slobozhanshchyna (Kharkiv/Sumy), destroying enemy positions and a boat. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of UAF Special Operations Forces destroying a Russian assault group on the Pokrovsk direction, including drone footage of the combat. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared video of 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade operators downing a Russian "Orlan-30" reconnaissance UAV near Zaporizhzhia with an FPV drone, demonstrating effective counter-UAV capabilities. STERNENKO shared video of "Wings to Hell" (UAF drone unit) destroying an RUF soldier in Sumy Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ also shared video of 24th Separate Assault Battalion "Aidar" thanking supporters for a vehicle, indicating continued material support for UAF units. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared video of a UAV destroying a RUF Grad MLRS on Lyman direction. Николаевский Ванёк reports UAF "tigers" captured a prisoner on the left bank of Kherson Oblast. STERNENKO also provided video of "Novem Group" destroying RUF logistics in Kursk Oblast, demonstrating UAF deep strike capabilities into RF territory. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shared photos related to military medics and their importance, indicating continued focus on combat casualty care. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Air Defense (AD): UAF Air Force continues to provide real-time warnings of RUF missile and KAB threats (Sumy, Donetsk Oblast, Zaporizhzhia), including reports of activity of enemy tactical aviation on the southeastern direction. UAF AD is engaged in intercepting RUF attacks, but the volume of RUF strikes continues to cause significant civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, particularly from ballistic missiles (Dnipro, Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi). UAF Air Force reports active RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and tactical aviation activity on the northeast direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reported 28,743 Shahed drones used by Russia since the full-scale invasion, with 2,736 in June alone, as stated by Zelenskyy, highlighting the scale of the AD challenge. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued a ballistic missile threat alert from the southern direction, and a new missile threat for Sumy Oblast, but then issued a "threat cancelled" alert. РБК-Україна shares expert analysis on the threat of Shahed drones, highlighting RUF's new drone models and how open-source intelligence is used for targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Deep Strike Capability: UAF continues to conduct drone strikes deep into RF territory, as evidenced by RUF claims of intercepting 34 UAVs and UAF claims of hitting 8 oil depots. TASS claims 22 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over various regions of Russia in 3.5 hours, also reported by ASTRA. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows UAF drone operations resulting in RUF KIA. РБК-Україна reports RUF has dropped almost 100 bombs on its own and occupied territories since the beginning of the year, likely due to technical failures/friendly fire or a lack of precision, which benefits UAF operations. STERNENKO's video of "Novem Group" destroying RUF logistics in Kursk Oblast further demonstrates UAF's effective cross-border deep strike capability. STERNENKO's report on "drone safety" in multiple RF oblasts further highlights UAF's continued deep strike capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Information Operations (IO): Ukrainian channels (РБК-Україна, Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration, Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Zelenskiy / Official, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Олександр Вілкул, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація)) continue to provide immediate assessments and photographic/video evidence of RUF attacks and their consequences, highlighting civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure (Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa), including damages to a passenger train in Dnipro, with updated casualty counts for Dnipro (now 17 KIA, 279 wounded). Zelenskiy / Official also shared video and photos of his address to the Senate and House of Representatives of the Netherlands parliament, stating "the main target of Russian attacks is life itself," and warning that "Russia is planning hostile and potentially destructive operations on NATO territory," demonstrating high-level diplomatic engagement and warning. Zelenskiy / Official explicitly stated "For Putin, there is a rule 'Do not kill.' There is a rule 'Do not act like a non-human with people.' There is a rule 'Do not burn cities and villages.' There is also a rule 'Do not justify or sponsor terror.' There is a rule 'Do not steal children.' And if you violate such rules, there must be responsibility," directly addressing Putin. Zelenskiy / Official also highlighted the scale of Shahed attacks (28,743 since full-scale invasion, 2,736 in June), emphasizing the need for partner support. Zelenskiy / Official stated "Russia is stronger than any of us individually, but it is weaker than all of us together," emphasizing unity and a strategy to limit RUF capabilities. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also shared the same photos of Zelenskyy's address, indicating a coordinated IO message emphasizing NATO and EU unity. «Зона СВО» (SVO Zone) and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reported on Zelenskyy's address to the Dutch House of Representatives, where "Зона СВО" characterized his speech as "threatening Putin." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна also reported on the potential meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy during the NATO summit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reported on Ukraine's military-industrial complex potential of over $35 billion, but highlighted underfunding and the need for partial arms export, indicating a focus on long-term self-sufficiency. STERNENKO shared photos/posts on "interesting fact 1" and Trump's Nobel Peace Prize nomination, reflecting UAF monitoring of RUF IO. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shared photos of housing restoration in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, signaling resilience and rebuilding efforts, as well as a graduation ceremony at a local gymnasium. Олександр Вілкул's briefing on the day's results from Kryvyi Rih indicates continued local leadership in managing military and civilian efforts. РБК-Україна reports on a "special operation to evacuate citizens from Iran," demonstrating Ukraine's capability to conduct complex diplomatic/logistical operations in potentially hostile environments. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on a "critically important microelectronic enterprise" in Russia stopping work, which Ukraine highlights as a positive impact on RUF military production. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS mocked the Iranian "victory" celebrations with a clown emoji, indicating skepticism towards RUF/Iranian IO. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shared a postcard titled "Melitopol is Ukraine," reflecting focus on occupied territories. ASTRA reports Ukrainian "Naftogaz" sent "Gazprom" official demand for $1.37bn payment, which is also a form of IO highlighting RUF's obligations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Russian Forces (RUF):
  • Ground Operations: RUF MoD claims "liberation" of Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast). RUF continues to claim "mopping up" Dyleyevka (Donetsk Oblast) and "complete liberation" of Petrovske/Hrekivka (Luhansk Oblast). "Операция Z" published video claiming "Dyleevka is under our control." Kotsnews reports on RUF advance in Sumy. UAF General Staff confirms active clashes in these areas, indicating RUF intent to advance and consolidate. Persistent RUF assaults continue in Sumy/Kursk and Kherson directions. WarGonzo shows aerial footage of destroyed residential areas, claiming "Somalis demolish houses with AFU members inside," indicating continued destructive operations against UAF positions. MoD Russia shows Grad MLRS strike in Kharkiv as part of "buffer zone" creation. MoD Russia also shared new video with caption "Continue destroying enemy defences," showing aerial reconnaissance footage of explosions and destructive events in forested and populated areas, indicating ongoing combat actions by "Sever, Yug, and Tsentr Group of Forces." Басурин (Basurin) claims RUF confidently advancing on Krasnolimansk direction with video of artillery. Рыбарь shares video message captioned "Organization and conduct of an ambush on enemy transport." Воин DV shared video of 29th Army "continuing to shell nearby forest belts in the Yalta area (likely Novopavlivka direction, Yalta settlement), claiming rapid advance due to concentration of firepower. Воин DV also shared video claiming their "Kaira" UAV squadron of the 39th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade destroyed a UAF T-72 tank (with a "Balkenkreuz" marking), an ATV, and a vehicle with personnel. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (Paratrooper's Diary) shared photos with the caption "Delivery to the front!", showing soldiers (likely RUF) loading supplies onto an ATV, suggesting forward logistical support in a combat zone. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also shared a video showing a group of soldiers in a temporary living space, highlighting rudimentary frontline conditions. Старше Эдды (Starshe Eddy) published an "Exclusive. First report from the 'buffer zone' in Sumy Oblast," showing rural roads and damaged houses, supporting RUF claims of presence in the region. Два майора published video from Konstantinovka direction, Yablonovka, showing drone strikes on enemy positions and assault actions by RUF soldiers, including FABs. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posted a satellite/aerial map of "Kherson direction" with overlaid markings, suggesting an ongoing RUF tactical interest or operational planning in that area. Воин DV posted new video claiming an operator of the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade hit a vehicle and a group of "хлопчиков" (likely UAF soldiers) in Karl Marx (Mirne) area with a drone, showing a thermal image of a strike, suggesting continued precision targeting by RUF SOF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims and UAF confirmation of active combat; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Basurin video; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Rybar video, unverified BDA; HIGH CONFIDENCE - MoD Russia video evidence of destruction, though specific targets and BDA are unverified; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Воин DV video and claims, unverified; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photos, indicates RUF forward logistics; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Starshe Eddy photos, intent is to confirm RUF presence; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Два майора video; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 map of Kherson direction; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Воин DV new video, suggests precision strike; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video of soldiers).
  • Artillery/Air Strikes: RUF employed ballistic missiles (claimed 4 Iskanders) on Dnipro, causing significant civilian infrastructure damage and casualties (now 17 dead, 279 wounded), including a passenger train. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports four explosions in Dnipropetrovsk industrial zone, likely Iskander. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claimed RUF forces hit a "rocket and armored vehicle production plant" in Dnipropetrovsk. RUF aviation continues airstrikes in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia (KABs), Sumy (KABs), and Odesa Oblasts. MoD Russia shows Grad MLRS activity in Kharkiv. "Два майора" shows combat work of 127th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade FPV drones in Kherson direction, striking a truck and artillery. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА claims Abrams destroyed by Lancet in Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad provides an animated map of RUF strikes on Ukraine, 23-24 JUN. Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reported continued enemy attacks on Nikopol region, including residential buildings, infrastructure, and an agricultural enterprise. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration) reports RUF conducted an airstrike on one of the settlements in Polohy district. Операция Z (Military Correspondents of Russian Spring) posted video of aftermath of an alleged enemy attempt to destroy "Espanyola" marine detachment, showing damaged buildings. Басурин о главном shared video appearing to show a rocket launch at night, likely an RUF missile or rocket system launch, indicating continued strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF reports on strikes, RUF claims on specific targets/munition types; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Civilian targeting; LOW CONFIDENCE - Abrams destruction claim, unverified, and a new Colonelcassad video shows an M-60 Patton being towed in Kyiv, not an Abrams, suggesting RUF misidentification or IO; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Poddubny Iskander report; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claim, requires BDA; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Dnipropetrovsk ODA reporting; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Zaporizhzhia OMA on airstrike; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Операция Z video, unverified BDA; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Basurin video of rocket launch).
  • Internal Security Operations: RUF State Duma is tightening internal controls via legislation regarding military registration and traffic violations, allowing stateless persons to serve in military, and creating a national digital service/messenger. Putin signed a law on blocking financial assets and property of individuals and organizations suspected of involvement in sabotage. Mash на Донбассе reports that the data verification period for "Phoenix" (presumably a telecommunications or data service) has been extended until November 1, officially. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shared a video of an alleged mobilized Russian soldier recounting experiences of mistreatment, torture, and threats by Russian forces, including being beaten and threatened for refusing to kill, and witnessing deaths due to torture. This suggests internal disciplinary and human rights issues within RUF. ASTRA reported on a new initiative in St. Petersburg where "participants of the war with Ukraine will instill 'traditional values' in schoolchildren," indicating further militarization of Russian society and youth indoctrination. АSTRA also reports on a "repeatedly convicted serviceman beating two girls in Buryatia," suggesting a breakdown in internal discipline and a rise in criminality among RUF personnel. Kadyrov_95 shared video of the "All-Russian Forum 'Russia - House of Peoples'" in Grozny, promoting interethnic unity and traditional values, indicating continued soft power efforts and internal consolidation. ASTRA reported on Russian Supreme Court deeming "Allatra" movement "extremist" and banning it in RF. ASTRA also reported legal protocols against Apple and Kinopoisk for "LGBT propaganda," with threats of fines or suspension. ASTRA also reports on a local political reform in Altai that local residents opposed, indicating some internal dissent, though likely suppressed. TASS reports that FSB has stated that Ukrainian spy Yulian Belokon, convicted in DNR, marked places on a map with military units of the RF Armed Forces, indicating continued counter-intelligence operations and attribution of espionage to Ukraine. ASTRA reports Putin signed a law on FSB control over Russian scientists' contacts with foreign colleagues, indicating increased internal security measures related to information control. Новости Москвы reports the State Duma is developing a list of permitted names for children. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting on legislation and administrative control; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Butusov Plus video, unverified testimony, but consistent with other reports of RUF internal discipline issues; HIGH CONFIDENCE - ASTRA reporting on youth indoctrination; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - ASTRA on serviceman criminality; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Kadyrov video, internal consolidation; HIGH CONFIDENCE - ASTRA on Allatra ban; HIGH CONFIDENCE - ASTRA on Apple/Kinopoisk legal action; HIGH CONFIDENCE - ASTRA on Altai political reform; HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS on FSB spy capture; HIGH CONFIDENCE - ASTRA on FSB control over scientists; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Новости Москвы on children's names). TASS reports arrest of "Rostovvodokanal" director in Rostov region, indicating potential anti-corruption efforts or internal power struggles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Филолог в засаде reports on a meeting about military volunteerism, highlighting challenges faced by Russian volunteers, which can impact internal support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Information Operations (IO): RUF channels (TASS, Colonelcassad, Basurin, Poddubny, WarGonzo, Операция Z, MoD Russia, Два майора, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Новости Москвы, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, Alex Parker Returns, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Z комитет + карта СВО, Kotsnews, Воин DV, «Зона СВО», Mash на Донбассе, Рыбарь, Старше Эдды, Военкор Котенок, Kadyrov_95, AV БогомаZ, Fighterbomber, Басурин о главном, НгП раZVедка) continue to aggressively disseminate claims of tactical successes and amplify domestic narratives. Два майора promotes "Radio Sputnik" as a source where "everything becomes clear," indicating a continued effort to push state-controlled narratives. «Зона СВО» and ASTRA quickly picked up on a fake news story about Trump's Nobel Peace Prize nomination for resolving the Iran-Israel conflict, demonstrating rapid amplification of potentially distracting narratives. Alex Parker Returns explicitly stated "In Iran, celebrations began on the occasion of the victory over Israel," and then claimed "The bulldozer of American politics nominated himself for the Nobel Peace Prize" for achieving a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, further cementing the fabricated narrative. «Зона СВО» also characterized Zelenskyy's address to the Dutch parliament as "threatening Putin," framing UAF leadership as aggressive. Военкор Котенок posted a highly aggressive, genocidal-sounding message, stating "Reality, called war, will definitely knock on the door of every house... And the boomerang of war will hit the complacent asses and carefree necks even harder," indicating escalating dehumanization and calls for retribution. The rapid shift in the Israel-Iran narrative from immediate conflict to "resolved" (by Trump) by RUF channels, and then counter-narratives by TASS (impeachment, Israeli Army Chief of Staff's statement, de-escalation confirmed), highlights extreme agility and manipulation of global events for internal and external consumption. Alex Parker Returns also shared a video of the Ukrainian flag in Kryvyi Rih, framing it as a "sign" related to Zelenskyy, attempting to sow internal discord or superstitions. Два майора also shared this video. WarGonzo published a photo/text "Europe will continue to inject money into Ukraine: results of the first day of the NATO summit," acknowledging Western support but likely spinning it negatively. Операция Z posted a video of Trump discussing his priorities for Ukraine, likely aiming to sow doubt about US support. НгП раZVедка also shared satirical videos of Trump related to the Iran-Israel conflict. Colonelcassad shared multiple videos of a large public gathering in Tehran, supporting "Operation Basharat Fath" and thanking armed forces, implying Iranian "victory" and public support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also shared video of celebrations in Iran, with a clown emoji, indicating Ukrainian skepticism of the "victory" claims. Операция Z also shared multiple videos of large public gatherings in Tehran celebrating "victory over Israel," reinforcing the RUF IO narrative. Kotsnews claims "World media shifted from Ukraine to the East with relief," reflecting RUF's perception of IO success. РБК-Україна expert analysis reports on how open-source intelligence is used by RUF to target Ukrainian cities, highlighting RUF's adaptive IO/targeting capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Immediate and independent verification of RUF claims regarding confirmed capture of Dyleyevka, Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast) and Petrovske/Hrekivka (Luhansk Oblast). Assess tactical implications of any confirmed RUF gains in these areas, particularly regarding control over UAF logistics routes to Konstantinovka. Verify Rybar's claims of "successes near Konstantinovka" and Basurin's claims of RUF advance on Krasnolimansk direction. Verify Воин DV's claims of 29th Army rapid advance near Yalta and the claimed hits by 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade in Karl Marx (Mirne). Verify Два майора's specific claims and BDA in Konstantinovka direction, Yablonovka. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
• CRITICAL: Verify the extent and intent of RUF ground activity in Sumy Oblast, particularly the claims of an "advance" and "buffer zone" by Kotsnews and Старше Эдды. Coupled with KAB strikes and 10 repelled assaults, this indicates potential for intensified ground operations beyond just probing. Determine specific locations of RUF incursions, force size, and intent (raids, limited occupation, or shaping for larger offensive). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Conduct comprehensive BDA on all recent RUF ballistic missile, KAB, and UAV strikes, especially in Dnipro and Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi (Odesa Oblast). Verify specific targets (e.g., railway station area, schools, hospitals, residential buildings, train line) and damage assessment, and confirm munition types (e.g., Iskander, KAB variants). Specifically, verify RUF claim of "locomotive repair plant" strike in Dnipro and the extent of damage to the passenger train. Confirm the use of Iskander missiles in Dnipro as reported by Poddubny, and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's claim of hitting a "rocket and armored vehicle production plant." (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA teams, IMINT, OSINT).
• HIGH: Monitor RUF internal security operations (e.g., FSB arrests in Zaporizhzhia, serviceman investigation in Bashkortostan, Kherson resident arrest, blocking assets of saboteurs, the serviceman beating women in Buryatia, FSB arresting Ukrainian spy Yulian Belokon, FSB control over scientists' contacts with foreigners) and new legislation (military registration, traffic control, stateless persons in military, national messenger, asset blocking, film censorship, "foreign agent" laws, Russian language law, parental consent for bank accounts, utility payment deadline, federal budget changes, and the extension of data verification period for "Phoenix", and development of allowed names for children, arrest of "Rostovvodokanal" director, and the meeting on military volunteerism). Analyze the intent behind publicizing such operations and laws, particularly concerning potential false-flag preparations or justifications for internal repression and mobilization. Also monitor recruitment for "African Corps" and volunteer tenders, and expansion of military-patriotic clubs and university military training centers, and the new "traditional values" initiative in St. Petersburg. Investigate the Russian Supreme Court's decision on "Allatra" and legal actions against Apple/Kinopoisk to assess implications for digital control and information suppression. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT). Investigate the claims of mistreatment/torture of mobilized soldiers within RUF, as reported by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, to assess internal morale and discipline. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, OSINT).
• HIGH: Verify the specific targets and BDA of the "Rubikon" BLA strikes reported by RUF in Donetsk/Kherson directions, specifically the claimed ammunition depot and the truck/artillery piece. Also verify the RUF claim of destroying a UAF UAV control point in Kharkiv Oblast and the claim of Abrams destruction by Lancet in Sumy Oblast, and Воин DV's claim of destroying a UAF T-72 tank, ATV, and vehicle with personnel, and their new claimed hits in Karl Marx (Mirne). Clarify the identity of the tank in Colonelcassad's video to ascertain if it is indeed an Abrams or another type. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT).
• HIGH: Assess the impact of RUF dropping nearly 100 bombs on its own and occupied territories since the start of the year. Determine if this indicates systemic issues with RUF aerial munitions or a deliberate strategy. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT).
• MEDIUM: Obtain more information on the reported missile strike on the "Espanyola" marine base in Crimea. Determine if they are results of UAF strikes, internal sabotage, or accidents, to inform future planning. Also, assess the significance of Rybar's report on UAF activation in Black Sea/Crimea area, and the specific details of "Organization and conduct of an ambush on enemy transport" video. Assess the implications of RUF shutting down mobile internet in occupied Kherson Oblast. Investigate the cause and implications of Aeroflot flight adjustments to Kazan, Samara, and Saratov. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT, SIGINT).
• LOW: Investigate RUF claims of "Kyiv holding 32 Kursky residents hostage." (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Ground Capabilities: RUF continues to demonstrate capability for localized ground advances, particularly on the Donetsk axis, aiming to seize key UAF strongholds and logistical nodes (e.g., Dyleyevka, Perebudova near Konstantinovka, Krasnolimansk direction, Chasiv Yar direction). "Операция Z" video on Dyleyevka indicates active combat to secure and hold claimed positions. The UAF General Staff reports of 10 repelled assaults in Sumy/Kursk, and the Kotsnews report on RUF "advance" in Sumy, and the Старше Эдды "buffer zone" report, confirm persistent RUF ground pressure and capability in the north, even if no major breakthrough has occurred. RUF continues destructive operations against UAF positions, as evidenced by WarGonzo's footage and MoD Russia's MLRS strikes, and new MoD Russia video showing combat actions by multiple Groups of Forces, including explosions in forested and populated areas. New RUF footage ("Rubicon," "Два майора," Воин DV, MoD Russia, Рыбарь) demonstrates sustained FPV drone and UAV-KT combat work, targeting UAF logistics (ammunition depots, trucks), artillery pieces, and now including claimed strikes on UAF UAV control points and claimed Abrams destruction, as well as a UAF T-72 tank, ATV, and vehicle with personnel (claimed by Воин DV). Воин DV's claims of 29th Army's rapid advance near Yalta due to concentrated firepower suggest specific areas of tactical focus and resource allocation. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's photos showing supply delivery to the "front" and video of soldiers in rudimentary living spaces indicate active forward logistical operations and the harsh conditions. Два майора's video from Konstantinovka direction showcasing drone strikes and FABs indicates combined-arms tactical adaptations for assault operations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's new map of the "Kherson direction" indicates continued RUF tactical planning or operations in the area. Воин DV's new video of a precision drone strike by 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade further highlights RUF's use of SOF and drones for targeted strikes against personnel/vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Artillery/Air Capabilities: RUF executed a mass-casualty ballistic missile strike on Dnipro using at least four Iskander-M missiles, causing 17 KIA and 279 wounded, damaging numerous schools, a hospital, and a passenger train. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claimed RUF hit a "rocket and armored vehicle production plant" in Dnipropetrovsk, demonstrating a continued focus on military-industrial targets within urban areas. RUF aviation continues airstrikes in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia (KABs), Sumy (KABs), and Odesa Oblasts. MoD Russia shows Grad MLRS activity in Kharkiv. "Два майора" shows combat work of 127th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade FPV drones in Kherson direction, striking a truck and artillery. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА claims Abrams destroyed by Lancet in Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad provides an animated map of RUF strikes on Ukraine, 23-24 JUN. Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reported continued enemy attacks on Nikopol region, including residential buildings, infrastructure, and an agricultural enterprise, highlighting ongoing artillery/drone pressure on civilian areas. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration) reports RUF conducted an airstrike on one of the settlements in Polohy district. Операция Z (Military Correspondents of Russian Spring) posted video of aftermath of an alleged enemy attempt to destroy "Espanyola" marine detachment, demonstrating continued naval targeting or defensive actions. Басурин о главном posted a video showing a rocket launch, indicating continued RUF long-range strike capabilities. РБК-Україна reports an expert called the strike a "targeted attack or psychological terror," aimed at hitting moving objects like trains, making them difficult to intercept. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Information Warfare Capabilities: RUF's IO remains highly agile and adaptive, rapidly amplifying claims of tactical gains (Dyleyevka, Petrovske/Hrekivka, Sumy "buffer zone", Perebudova, "successes near Konstantinovka," Krasnolimansk), domestic issues, and attempting to project control by claiming "buffer zones" in Ukraine. They continue to use disinformation to justify internal crackdowns and maintain public support, and are actively shaping narratives around international events. The extension of "Phoenix" data verification suggests ongoing efforts to control information flow and monitor digital communications within occupied territories or Russia itself. The quick amplification of the fake Trump Nobel Prize nomination by pro-RUF channels demonstrates their willingness to spread distracting, unsubstantiated narratives. Alex Parker Returns' explicit claims about Iran's "victory" over Israel and Trump's Nobel nomination reinforce this. The dehumanizing rhetoric directed at Zelenskyy ("гнида") by "Зона СВО" and the genocidal rhetoric from Военкор Котенок ("Reality, called war, will definitely knock on the door of every house...") indicates continued efforts to delegitimize Ukrainian leadership and incite violence. The rapid shift in the Israel-Iran narrative from immediate conflict to "resolved" (by Trump) by RUF channels, and then counter-narratives by TASS (impeachment, Israeli Army Chief of Staff's statement, de-escalation confirmed), highlights extreme agility and manipulation of global events for internal and external consumption. Alex Parker Returns' video of the Ukrainian flag in Kryvyi Rih also reflects subtle IO tactics aimed at internal Ukrainian morale or superstitions. Два майора also shared this. RUF is also actively working to suppress certain information domestically, as seen with the "Allatra" ban and legal actions against Apple/Kinopoisk for "LGBT propaganda," indicating broader societal control efforts, as well as the suppression of local dissent in Altai. The formal claim by FSB (via TASS) of capturing a Ukrainian spy who marked military units indicates RUF's ongoing effort to attribute internal security incidents to Ukraine. Putin signing a law on FSB control over scientists' contacts suggests increasing paranoia and information control. The reports of wedding tours to North Korea and new baby naming laws, while seemingly minor, demonstrate RUF's efforts to project normalcy and cultural control. The arrest of the "Rostovvodokanal" director suggests an ongoing internal crackdown within Russia. Kotsnews claiming the world media shifted from Ukraine to the Middle East with relief highlights RUF's self-perception of IO success in diversion. The discussions on military volunteerism in Russia show RUF's efforts to maintain and improve internal support systems, even if issues are acknowledged. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Intentions: RUF intends to:
  • Sustain Offensive Pressure & Consolidate Gains: Continue high-intensity ground assaults on key axes (Donetsk, Luhansk) to achieve localized gains and attrit UAF forces, attempting to sever UAF logistics, particularly towards Konstantinovka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Degrade UAF Morale and Capabilities: Through continued terror strikes against civilian targets and military-industrial/force generation infrastructure using ballistic missiles, KABs, and UAVs. This includes targeting critical transport infrastructure like train lines, training/deployment centers, and logistics hubs. The increased casualties in Dnipro (17 dead, 279 wounded) highlight the continued lethal effectiveness of these strikes against civilian populations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Reinforce Domestic Support & Legitimacy: Use claims of tactical gains, internal security actions, and publicize domestic support for the military to reinforce internal cohesion and project control. The new administrative measure regarding "Phoenix" data verification indicates an ongoing tightening of domestic information control. The initiative to have war participants teach "traditional values" in schools is a long-term effort to militarize Russian youth and secure future support for conflicts, while domestic events like the forum in Grozny aim to project internal unity. The banning of "Allatra" and legal action against Apple/Kinopoisk are further steps in societal control. The blaming of Ukraine for the Krokus attack (from previous ISR) provides a direct justification for further aggression and internal repression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Exert Control over Border Areas: The persistent assaults and "buffer zone" claims in Sumy/Kharkiv, combined with confirmed RUF ground activity, KAB strikes, and Kotsnews and Старше Эдды's reporting an "advance," strongly suggest a long-term intent to establish a physical presence in northern Ukraine or at least to destabilize the border regions and tie down UAF forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Shape International Narrative: RUF seeks to project itself as a relevant geopolitical actor, sow discord among Western partners, or divert attention from Ukraine. This is evidenced by the rapid deployment and retraction of the fake Israel-Iran conflict resolution narrative and the rapid promotion of Trump's Nobel nomination. The spreading of the "NATO creating an Iron Curtain" narrative aims to frame NATO as aggressive and justify RUF actions. The rapid pivot in the Israel-Iran narrative suggests an intent to control perceptions of global stability and the effectiveness of US/Western diplomacy. The continued focus on Iranian nuclear program (Colonelcassad) highlights RUF's interest in shaping narratives around this sensitive topic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Control Information Flow in Occupied Territories: The shutdown of mobile internet in occupied Kherson Oblast demonstrates a clear intent to isolate the population and control information, likely to prevent communication with UAF and suppress dissent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• RUF: Continued high volume of ballistic missiles (claimed 4 Iskanders in Dnipro, confirmed by Poddubny), KABs (Sumy, Zaporizhzhia), and Shahed/Geran-2 UAVs for deep strikes and shaping operations. The claimed capture of Dyleyevka, Perebudova and Petrovske/Hrekivka indicates persistent focus on expanding control in Donetsk/Luhansk Oblasts, with Rybar confirming "successes near Konstantinovka" and Basurin claiming "advances" on Krasnolimansk. Increased targeting of UAF training centers and temporary deployment areas indicates an adaptation to degrade UAF force generation, and now includes direct hits on passenger trains. The continued, unsuccessful ground assaults in Sumy/Kursk, despite the large force concentration reported in the previous ISR, suggest a probing or attritional strategy for now, but the intent for a "buffer zone" or larger offensive remains, now overtly stated with MLRS activity in Kharkiv and Kotsnews' claims of "advance" in Sumy, supported by Старше Эдды's "buffer zone" report. The Rybar video on "Organization and conduct of an ambush on enemy transport" and Воин DV's claims of destroying UAF assets with FPV drones (including new video of strike in Karl Marx/Mirne) suggest specific tactical adaptations in anti-logistics and anti-armor operations. The footage from Serebryanskoye forestry indicates extensive FPV drone usage by both sides. Два майора's video from Konstantinovka direction showcasing drone strikes and FABs indicates combined-arms tactical adaptations for assault operations. The photo/map of "Kherson direction" from Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 suggests ongoing tactical planning and adaptation for that axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Tightening internal regulations and new recruitment efforts reflect efforts to increase societal control and expand recruitment in support of the war effort. The extension of "Phoenix" data verification until November 1st underscores a persistent administrative effort to control digital infrastructure and information, reinforcing the state's grip. The alleged mistreatment of mobilized soldiers by RUF indicates a potential adaptation in internal discipline and enforcement, possibly due to desertion or refusal to fight. The mobile internet shutdown in occupied Kherson suggests a more aggressive tactic to control communication. The rapid fabrication and 'resolution' of the Israel-Iran conflict by RUF IO channels demonstrates a highly dynamic and adaptive information warfare strategy, including the new 'victory' narrative for Iran. The use of open-source intelligence for targeting by RUF, as reported by РБК-Україна expert, indicates a tactical adaptation in intelligence gathering for strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: Continues to demonstrate effective AD responses to RUF UAVs in some areas, but struggles with the volume and type (ballistic, KAB) of deeper strikes. UAF is actively building fortifications, including anti-drone tunnels for logistics, as well as engaging in basic general military training and advanced procurement training. UAF ground forces are effectively repelling multiple RUF assaults across various axes, indicating strong defensive posture, and are conducting limited counter-actions (e.g., 3rd Assault Brigade near Ridkodub, Ghost of Khortytsia drone operations, UAF SOF destroying RUF assault group on Pokrovsk direction). UAF has demonstrated success in downing RUF reconnaissance UAVs with FPV drones (128th OGShBr downing Orlan-30), indicating adaptive counter-UAV tactics. STERNENKO's video of "Wings to Hell" unit destroying an RUF soldier with a drone in Sumy Oblast demonstrates ongoing asymmetric drone warfare. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS' video of a UAV destroying a RUF Grad MLRS demonstrates effective counter-battery and drone usage. UAF continues deep strikes on RUF territory, evidenced by reported oil depot strikes and KIA, now including STERNENKO's video of "Novem Group" destroying RUF logistics in Kursk Oblast. STERNENKO's report on "drone safety" in multiple RF oblasts indicates continued deep strike operations. UAF is demonstrating capability for complex non-military operations such as the evacuation of citizens from Iran (РБК-Україна), highlighting adaptive diplomatic and logistical capabilities beyond the battlefield. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• RUF continues to possess and employ ballistic missiles (Iskander), KABs, and Shahed/Geran-2 UAVs, indicating sustained production or external supply. RUF's ability to maintain offensive operations suggests adequate logistical support for ground forces, supplemented by significant domestic support and new internal mobilization laws, and external recruitment efforts. The Rybar video on ambushing enemy transport and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's photos of supplies being delivered to the "front" and video of soldiers' living conditions indicate an RUF focus on degrading UAF logistics while maintaining their own. The alleged torture and mistreatment of mobilized soldiers by RUF, as reported by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, and the reported criminality of a serviceman in Buryatia (ASTRA), suggests potential issues with personnel morale and discipline, which could impact sustainment and overall force cohesion. TASS and ASTRA reports of Aeroflot flight adjustments in Russia could indicate minor logistical disruptions or new security measures impacting civil aviation, potentially linked to UAV threats. The arrest of "Rostovvodokanal" director in Rostov region could indicate internal issues impacting civilian infrastructure that could have secondary effects on logistics. The discussions on military volunteerism in Russia (Филолог в засаде) suggest an ongoing effort to address logistical and support challenges for the war effort from civilian sources. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF continues to require and receive significant international support for defense, including for drone and AD capabilities. RBC-Ukraine's report on Ukraine's military-industrial complex potential of over $35 billion and the need for funding and partial export indicates a long-term strategy for self-sustainment in defense production. Николаевский Ванёк's report on a collection for transport for drone operators on the Sumy direction indicates active efforts to support UAF logistical needs at the unit level. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 confirmed Netherlands' new military aid package of 675 million euros, highlighting continued external support. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights the bankruptcy of a "critically important microelectronic enterprise" in Russia, which could impact RUF's ability to produce advanced military hardware, thus indirectly aiding UAF logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦's report on a Russian LNG tanker in Rotterdam highlights continued economic activity that could indirectly support RUF logistics. ASTRA's report on "Naftogaz" demanding payment from "Gazprom" highlights ongoing economic pressure on Russia, which could indirectly impact its war-fighting capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• RUF: Highly effective C2 over its air/missile operations, capable of multi-layered attacks on diverse targets (Dnipro, Shakhovo, Toretskoye, Sumy, Odesa, Kolodezi, Kherson, now including passenger trains and claimed military-industrial targets). Tactical C2 for ground operations appears effective given claimed advances and coordinated air/UAV support, with coordinated actions reported by "Sever, Yug, and Tsentr Group of Forces." Their ability to conduct and report on internal security operations and pass new legislation, as well as coordinate recruitment efforts and youth military training, indicates effective C2 over domestic FSB/law enforcement and political elements. The official extension of the "Phoenix" data verification period demonstrates a centralized, effective C2 in implementing internal control measures over digital infrastructure and information, reinforcing the state's grip. The rapid dissemination of fake news (Trump Nobel Prize, fabricated Israel-Iran conflict) and dehumanizing rhetoric shows effective C2 over IO channels. The mobile internet shutdown in occupied Kherson suggests a centralized decision to control information. The FSB's public claims of capturing a Ukrainian spy and Putin's signing of the law on FSB control over scientists' contacts indicates effective, centralized C2 over internal security and information control. The arrest of the "Rostovvodokanal" director indicates continued centralized C2 over administrative and internal affairs. The meeting on military volunteerism indicates a coordinated effort to manage civilian support for the war, demonstrating centralized C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: Effective C2 in rapid air threat warnings, particularly concerning missiles and KABs. Effective C2 for counter-UAV operations (including FPV drones downing Orlan-30 and destroying Grad MLRS) and ground defense, as evidenced by successful fortification building and repelling multiple assaults and conducting limited counter-actions (e.g., 3rd Assault Brigade near Ridkodub, UAF SOF on Pokrovsk direction). Effective in managing the aftermath of missile strikes, including BDA and casualty reporting, and coordinating international military aid. UAF demonstrates effective C2 for training, drone maintenance, and defense procurement. UAF's diplomatic C2 remains highly effective, evidenced by continued high-level engagement, including direct addresses to foreign parliaments and meetings with US Senators. Zelenskiy / Official's prompt reporting of his address to the Dutch parliament, including the warning about Russian plans for "hostile and potentially destructive operations on NATO territory," and his direct address to Putin on war crimes, indicates strong, responsive diplomatic C2. The coordinated release of photos from the joint meeting with EU and NATO leaders further highlights effective strategic C2 in IO. Олександр Вілкул's briefing for Kryvyi Rih indicates effective local C2 for civil-military coordination. РБК-Україна reporting on the evacuation of citizens from Iran suggests robust diplomatic and logistical C2 for complex overseas operations. Zelenskiy's public statements on Shahed numbers and the need for partner support also indicate effective C2 in transparent reporting and resource advocacy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Ground Forces: UAF maintains a resilient defensive posture, actively resisting RUF advances across multiple axes. The successful repelling of 10 assaults in Sumy/Kursk and 6 in Kherson demonstrates high readiness and determination on the flanks. UAF remains capable of localized counter-attacks, as suggested by the RUF claim of a UAF attempt to retake Mali Shcherbaky, and demonstrated by the 3rd Assault Brigade near Ridkodub and Ghost of Khortytsia drone operations. UAF Special Operations Forces demonstrated effective counter-assault tactics on Pokrovsk direction, destroying a RUF assault group. The 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade demonstrated effective counter-UAV capabilities by downing a Russian "Orlan-30" with an FPV drone. STERNENKO's video of "Wings to Hell" unit in Sumy Oblast further demonstrates UAF's active drone combat operations. Оперативний ЗСУ's video of 24th Separate Assault Battalion "Aidar" receiving a vehicle indicates continued support and operational readiness. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS' video of a UAV destroying a RUF Grad MLRS demonstrates high readiness for counter-battery fire. Николаевский Ванёк reports UAF "tigers" captured a prisoner on the left bank of Kherson Oblast. STERNENKO's new video of "Novem Group" destroying RUF logistics in Kursk Oblast indicates continued UAF offensive capability across the border. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's posts highlighting military medics' importance underscores sustained efforts in personnel welfare and combat readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Air Defense: UAF AD is on high alert, actively tracking and responding to missile, KAB, and UAV threats to major cities, critical infrastructure, and military targets. The challenge remains significant given the volume and type (ballistic, KAB) of deeper strikes. UAF Air Force is actively detecting RUF reconnaissance UAVs and tactical aviation, including on the southeastern direction. The new ballistic missile threat alert from the southern direction and the new missile threat for Sumy Oblast indicate continued high AD readiness, although the most recent alert has been cancelled. Zelenskiy's reporting of 28,743 Shahed drones since full-scale invasion highlights the scale of AD challenge. РБК-Україна expert analysis on new, harder-to-intercept Shahed models emphasizes the evolving AD threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Defense Industry & Procurement: Netherlands' pledge of 600,000 drones and 100 anti-UAV radars is a significant boost, indicating continued focus on asymmetric capabilities and counter-UAV measures. Germany's approval of an €8.3 billion military aid budget is a major strategic commitment. РБК-Україна reported on Ukraine's domestic military-industrial complex potential of over $35 billion, indicating growing self-sufficiency, but also highlighting the need for increased funding and potential for partial export. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 confirmed Netherlands' new military aid package of 675 million euros, further solidifying this significant aid. Два майора reports that a Czech-Slovak company transferred a Shark aircraft to Ukraine for UAV suppression using EW, indicating new Western support for EW capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Internal Security: SBU continues to thwart assassination attempts and counter hostile activities, successfully jailing an FSB agent in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Welfare/Personnel: Meetings with families of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" at the Coordination Staff highlight ongoing efforts to address personnel welfare and maintain morale. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's posts emphasizing military medics underscore continued focus on personnel care and retention. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ's video of Ukrainian soldiers requesting assistance for a damaged vehicle indicates ongoing material needs and challenges for frontline personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes:
  • Strategic Military Aid: Netherlands' commitment to fund 600,000 drones and supply 100 anti-UAV radars is a major strategic success for UAF's long-term capabilities and asymmetrical warfare. Germany's approval of €8.3 billion in military aid is a significant financial commitment. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 confirmed Netherlands' new military aid package of 675 million euros. The transfer of a Shark EW aircraft for UAV suppression by a Czech-Slovak company (Два майора) is a significant new acquisition. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF Defensive Resilience: UAF successfully repelled 10 RUF assaults in Sumy/Kursk and 6 in Kherson, indicating robust defensive posture and effective combat operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Localized Counter-Actions: The 3rd Assault Brigade successfully pushing occupiers out near Ridkodub (Lyman direction) and Ghost of Khortytsia drone operations in Slobozhanshchyna showcase UAF's ability to conduct localized offensive actions and effective drone warfare. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing RUF KIA from UAF drone strike. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС also reports UAF Special Operations Forces destroyed a Russian assault group on the Pokrovsk direction, which included drone footage of the combat. РБК-Україна also shared video of the 3rd Assault Brigade destroying an RUF platoon in the east. The 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade successfully downed a Russian "Orlan-30" reconnaissance UAV with an FPV drone near Zaporizhzhia, demonstrating effective counter-UAV tactics. STERNENKO's video of "Wings to Hell" unit destroying an RUF soldier in Sumy Oblast further exemplifies successful drone actions. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS' video of a UAV destroying a RUF Grad MLRS on Lyman direction demonstrates successful counter-battery actions. Николаевский Ванёк reports UAF "tigers" captured a prisoner on the left bank of Kherson Oblast. STERNENKO's video of "Novem Group" destroying RUF logistics in Kursk Oblast indicates continued effective deep strikes against RUF logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Fortification Building: UAF engineer units are actively engaged in building fortifications, including anti-drone tunnels for logistics, strengthening defensive positions. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shared photos of housing restoration in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicative of resilience and reconstruction efforts amidst conflict, and graduation ceremonies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Deep Strike Capability (Retained & Expanded): RUF reports of intercepting 34 Ukrainian UAVs (including 18 in three hours), and UAF claims of hitting 8 RUF oil depots, confirm UAF's continued capability to conduct deep strikes into Russian territory, directly impacting RUF logistics. TASS claims 22 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over various regions of Russia in 3.5 hours, also reported by ASTRA. РБК-Україна reports RUF has dropped almost 100 bombs on its own and occupied territories since the beginning of the year, indicative of RUF munitions issues that benefit UAF. STERNENKO's video of "Novem Group" destroying RUF logistics in Kursk Oblast reinforces this capability. STERNENKO's drone safety report in multiple RF oblasts further highlights this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Diplomatic Engagement: Zelenskyy's address at the NATO Defence Industry Forum in Netherlands, and his meeting with US Congress Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Chris Coons discussing support and Trump's ceasefire initiative, signal continued high-level engagement. Zelenskiy / Official, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 sharing photos of joint meeting with EU and NATO leaders highlights coordinated diplomatic messaging. Zelenskyy's warning to the Dutch Parliament about Russian plans for hostile operations on NATO territory is a significant diplomatic message. Zelenskiy's direct address to Putin on accountability for war crimes further demonstrates strong diplomatic resolve. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Russia has launched 28,743 Shahed drones at Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion, with 2,736 in June, according to Zelenskyy. This highlights UAF's intelligence and reporting capabilities. РБК-Україна reported on the potential meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy during the NATO summit, indicating continued high-level diplomatic relevance. РБК-Україна reports on Ukraine's special operation to evacuate citizens from Iran, demonstrating successful complex diplomatic/logistical operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Domestic Defense Production: RBC-Ukraine's report on Ukraine's military-industrial complex potential of over $35 billion highlights efforts towards self-sufficiency. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Impact on RUF Defense Industry: Оперативний ЗСУ highlights the bankruptcy of a "critically important microelectronic enterprise" in Russia, which could negatively impact RUF military production. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Setbacks:
  • Escalating Civilian Casualties/Infrastructure Damage: RUF ballistic missile strikes caused significant casualties (now 17 dead, 279 wounded) and extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Dnipro, including schools, kindergartens, residences, a music school, and a passenger train. A strike also occurred on a lyceum in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi (Odesa Oblast). This is a severe humanitarian setback. Continued attacks on Nikopol region affecting civilian areas also represent ongoing civilian suffering, as do airstrikes in Polohy district, Zaporizhzhia. Оперативний ЗСУ updated casualty figures for Dnipro to 15 dead and over 200 injured, aligning with previous reports, though later updates confirm 17 dead and 279 wounded. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports, updated figures).
  • Alleged Positional Setbacks: RUF claims "liberation" of Dyleyevka, Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast) and Petrovske/Hrekivka (Luhansk Oblast). Kotsnews also reports on RUF "advance" in Sumy Oblast. Rybar reports "successes near Konstantinovka." Basurin claims RUF "confidently advancing on Krasnolimansk direction." "Операция Z" published video claiming "Dyleevka is under our control." Старше Эдды also published a report from the "buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast, showing rural roads and damaged houses, supporting claims of RUF presence. Два майора's video from Konstantinovka direction, Yablonovka, shows active combat, potentially implying UAF loss of positions. These claims require urgent verification but, if confirmed, would constitute significant tactical setbacks, particularly for logistics towards Konstantinovka. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claims).
  • Strikes on RUF Military Targets (RUF Claim): RUF claims successful FPV drone strikes on a UAF dugout by Caspian Flotilla and the 36th Motor Rifle Brigade stopping UAF in Yalta and engaging. RUF "Rubikon" drones claimed destruction of an ammunition depot and an artillery piece/truck in Kolodezi/Kherson direction. RUF also claims destruction of a UAF UAV control point in Kharkiv Oblast and an Abrams tank in Sumy Oblast. Воин DV claims their "Kaira" UAV squadron destroyed a UAF T-72 tank, an ATV, and a vehicle with personnel, and their new video claims a vehicle and group in Karl Marx (Mirne) were hit by 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade. Операция Z (Military Correspondents of Russian Spring) posted video of aftermath of an alleged enemy attempt to destroy "Espanyola" marine detachment. If confirmed, this would be a localized degradation of UAF capabilities. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim). Colonelcassad's new video shows a military truck towing a tank, identified as an M-60 Patton, not an Abrams, in Kyiv. If RUF attempts to claim this as a damaged Abrams, it would be a misrepresentation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on video, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on potential RUF misrepresentation).
  • Information Control in Occupied Areas: The shutdown of mobile internet in occupied Kherson Oblast represents a setback for communication and information access for the civilian population and potentially UAF intelligence gathering. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Challenges for Frontline Units: Оперативний ЗСУ's video showing Ukrainian soldiers requesting assistance for a damaged vehicle highlights persistent material challenges for frontline units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Continued critical need for advanced AD systems to counter ballistic missile and KAB threats, especially for urban centers, critical infrastructure (including railways and energy), and UAF training/force generation facilities. The pledged 600,000 drones and 100 radars, Germany's aid, and the new Shark EW aircraft are highly positive but require rapid delivery and integration. Continuous supply chain and training are essential for these systems and FPV drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF also needs continued international political support to counter RUF's escalating disinformation campaigns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ukraine's domestic defense industrial potential requires significant financial investment and policy changes (e.g., partial export allowance) to be fully realized. Николаевский Ванёк's report on collecting funds for drone unit transport on the Sumy direction highlights the ongoing need for logistical support for UAF units. Zvиздец Мангусту's fundraising request highlights continued reliance on public support for unit-level resources. Оперативний ЗСУ's video of soldiers requesting help for a damaged vehicle further emphasizes material constraints at the unit level. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian:
  • Frontline Glorification/Claims: RUF channels aggressively disseminate claims of "liberating" Dyleyevka, Perebudova and Petrovske/Hrekivka, and "successes near Konstantinovka," and "confidently advancing on Krasnolimansk direction" showcasing military prowess and territorial gains. "Операция Z" video on Dyleyevka, featuring Russian flags, reinforces this narrative. The "buffer zone" claim in Sumy/Kharkiv, amplified by Kotsnews' "advance" report and KAB strikes, and Старше Эдды's "report from the buffer zone" (with photos) aims to project offensive capability in the north. WarGonzo displays destroyed residential areas, blaming UAF, and shares drone strike video on a wooded area (Zaporizhzhia). MoD Russia explicitly states MLRS operation in Kharkiv to create buffer zone. Рыбарь shares video message captioned "Organization and conduct of an ambush on enemy transport." MoD Russia's new video showcasing "destroying enemy defenses" across multiple Group of Forces aims to project widespread offensive success. Воин DV promotes the 29th Army's rapid advance near Yalta due to concentrated firepower, and claims destruction of UAF T-72, ATV, and personnel. Their new video shows a precision strike in Karl Marx (Mirne) by 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (Paratrooper's Diary) promotes "Delivery to the front!" showing logistical support and their map of "Kherson direction" suggests ongoing operations, and a video of soldiers in basic frontline conditions. Colonelcassad and Военкор Котенок highlighting the intense FPV drone warfare in Serebryanskoye forestry indicates RUF's efforts to portray their forces as technologically advanced in drone combat. Оперативний ЗСУ also confirms this intense drone warfare. Два майора's video from Konstantinovka direction showing drone strikes and FABs aims to glorify RUF offensive capabilities. Операция Z (Military Correspondents of Russian Spring) posted video of aftermath of an alleged enemy attempt to destroy "Espanyola" marine detachment, aiming to portray Ukraine as attacking legitimate Russian targets. Басурин о главном posted a video appearing to show a rocket launch, intended to showcase RUF strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Domestic Justification/Internal Security: RUF channels continue to amplify domestic incidents and internal security operations for internal political messaging, framing them as a focus on internal security and law enforcement, and attributing blame to Ukraine. New laws and social benefits, along with recruitment campaigns, are being promoted to project state control and support for the war effort. Mash na Donbasse's report on the extension of "Phoenix" data verification until November 1st, officially, suggests a continued administrative effort to bolster internal control and information oversight related to the conflict and potentially to increase surveillance. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's video of an alleged mobilized soldier recounting mistreatment and torture, if widely known internally, could damage this narrative, but RUF channels would suppress it. ASTRA reported on the initiative to have war participants teach "traditional values" in St. Petersburg schools, signaling continued militarization of society. ASTRA also reported on a serviceman beating two girls in Buryatia, possibly impacting domestic morale but largely suppressed by mainstream RUF channels. Kadyrov_95 promoting the "Russia - House of Peoples" forum reinforces internal unity narratives. Kotsnews' claim of "Kyiv holding 32 Kursky residents hostage" aims to frame Ukraine as a malicious actor and justify RUF actions. ASTRA reported on the Russian Supreme Court deeming "Allatra" movement "extremist" and banning it, and legal protocols against Apple/Kinopoisk for "LGBT propaganda," indicating a widening net of internal control. ASTRA also reported on local dissent against political reforms in Altai. AV БогомаZ (Governor of Bryansk Oblast) posted about road network development, which is a subtle form of IO to show government effectiveness despite proximity to conflict. TASS reported FSB's claim of capturing a Ukrainian spy who marked military units, further attributing internal security issues to Ukraine. ASTRA reports Putin signed a law on FSB control over Russian scientists' contacts with foreign colleagues, indicating increased internal security measures related to information control. Новости Москвы reports the State Duma is developing a list of permitted names for children. TASS reports Lavrov's visit to Turkmenistan, aiming to project continued diplomatic influence. TASS reports the arrest of "Rostovvodokanal" director, presenting it as an internal crackdown on corruption. Филолог в засаде reports on a meeting about military volunteerism, showing engagement with civil society to support the war. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports Russia excludes Ukrainian language from school program, highlighting cultural oppression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Victim Blaming/Mockery: RUF channels continue to mock the devastation caused by RUF strikes and explicitly call for the destruction of Ukrainian cities, normalizing war crimes and genocidal rhetoric. Военкор Котенок's post, expressing the inevitability of war knocking on "every home" and hitting "complacent asses," is a stark example of this aggressive, dehumanizing rhetoric. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Global Event Manipulation: RUF channels, like «Зона СВО» and ASTRA, rapidly amplified the fake news about Trump's Nobel Peace Prize nomination for resolving the Iran-Israel conflict, demonstrating a capability to quickly inject distracting or favorable narratives into the global information space. Alex Parker Returns explicitly supported and detailed this fabricated narrative. «Зона СВО» also framed Zelenskyy's address to the Dutch parliament as "threatening Putin," aiming to portray Ukrainian leadership as aggressive. Операция Z (Military Correspondents of Russian Spring) amplified the narrative about "5 NATO countries creating a new 'Iron Curtain'" by mining borders with Russia, pushing a confrontational framing of NATO. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reiterated this narrative. TASS and Alex Parker Returns continued to propagate the fabricated Israel-Iran conflict narrative, including a Congressman moving for Trump's impeachment over it, showing continued rapid IO on this topic. However, TASS later reported that the Israeli Army Chief of Staff stated the campaign against Iran is "not over" (contradicting other RUF IO) and later still reported that Israeli army command has cancelled all restrictions and Iran's airspace is open, indicating a de-escalation of the conflict. TASS also quoted Peseshkian presenting an Iranian "victory" narrative. ASTRA and Военкор Котенок also confirmed the de-escalation. This shows rapid adaptation or some inconsistency within RUF IO. Alex Parker Returns' video of the Ukrainian flag in Kryvyi Rih, framed as a "sign," also aims to inject symbolic, possibly superstitious, narratives into the Ukrainian information space. Два майора also shared this. WarGonzo acknowledges Western aid to Ukraine but frames it within a narrative of continued "pumping money" into Ukraine. Операция Z posted a video of Trump discussing his priorities for Ukraine, likely aiming to sow doubt about US support. НгП раZVедка also shared satirical videos of Trump related to the Iran-Israel conflict. Colonelcassad shared multiple videos of public gatherings in Tehran supporting Iranian operations, reinforcing the "victory" narrative. Операция Z also shared these celebratory videos. Kotsnews claims "World media shifted from Ukraine to the East with relief," indicating RUF IO success in diverting attention. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Ukrainian:
  • Situational Awareness/Transparency: UAF official channels continue to provide timely updates on air threats, missile/UAV/KAB strikes, and their devastating consequences, demonstrating transparency regarding RUF attacks on civilians and infrastructure (Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa). This includes updated casualty figures for Dnipro (17 dead, 279 wounded) and video of a damaged passenger train. Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) provided detailed reports and photos of attacks on the Nikopol region. Олександр Вілкул publicly condemned the Dnipro attack as a "bloody crime" and provided a briefing for Kryvyi Rih. РБК-Україна's expert analysis on the Dnipro strike provides transparent assessment, and also on the Shahed threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Highlighting Domestic Support/Capability: Ukrainian channels showcase popular support, international backing, and UAF's adaptive capabilities. Zelenskiy / Official's prompt reporting of his address to the Dutch Parliament, warning of Russian plans for "hostile and potentially destructive operations on NATO territory," and his meetings with international leaders, highlight transparent diplomatic engagement and efforts to maintain international dialogue. The coordinated release of photos from the joint meeting with EU and NATO leaders further emphasizes international unity. Zelenskiy's direct address to Putin on war crimes ("Do not kill," "Do not steal children") strongly frames the moral dimension of the conflict. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights the sheer volume of Shahed drones launched by Russia (28,743 since full-scale invasion, 2,736 in June) as reported by Zelenskyy, to illustrate the scale of the threat and Ukraine's resilience. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared video of UAF downing an "Orlan-30" with an FPV drone, showcasing technical innovation and tactical success. STERNENKO also showcased UAF drone successes in Sumy Oblast and destruction of RUF logistics in Kursk Oblast, and general "drone safety" in RF oblasts. РБК-Україна reported on Ukraine's military-industrial potential and the need for investment and export, demonstrating a forward-looking and self-reliant perspective, and also reported on Ukraine's evacuation of citizens from Iran. Оперативний ЗСУ's video of 24th Separate Assault Battalion "Aidar" receiving a vehicle highlights civilian support for the military. Николаевский Ванёк's report on fundraising for drone unit transport on the Sumy direction also highlights the community's engagement in supporting defense. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's posts about military medics highlight UAF's internal resilience and care for personnel. Оперативний ЗСУ's reporting on the bankruptcy of a Russian microelectronics enterprise further highlights potential vulnerabilities in the RUF defense industry. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS' use of a clown emoji to mock Iranian celebrations indicates a critical, skeptical Ukrainian perspective on RUF-aligned IO. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shared a postcard "Melitopol is Ukraine," reinforcing territorial claims. ASTRA's report on "Naftogaz" demanding payment from "Gazprom" highlights economic pressure on Russia. Оперативний ЗСУ's video of soldiers requesting vehicle assistance is a transparent appeal for support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian: Civilian population continues to face extremely high stress due to persistent ballistic missile threats and devastating impacts in urban centers (Dnipro, with 17 dead and 279 wounded; Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, with strike on a lyceum; and now passenger train damage). The extensive damage to civilian infrastructure will further heighten public anger and resolve against RUF, and potentially increase calls for more robust air defense. News of significant international procurement efforts and continued fortification building will provide a morale boost, demonstrating resilience and continued international support. Zelenskiy's direct address to Putin and emphasis on accountability will likely resonate with the public. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Russian: Domestic audiences are being saturated with claims of tactical successes and a controlled narrative of internal stability and robust military support. The continued focus on internal security incidents and new laws serves to reinforce state control and justify actions. The extension of the "Phoenix" data verification period could be framed internally as a measure to protect citizens or enhance national security. The reports of mistreatment of mobilized soldiers (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) and criminal acts by servicemen (ASTRA) could potentially impact morale and willingness to serve if widely known, but RUF's tight information control makes this unlikely to significantly shift public sentiment. The severe weather reports in Moscow (Новости Москвы) could also be a minor morale dampener if it disrupts daily life. The reported local dissent against political reform in Altai (ASTRA) suggests some level of internal opposition, though likely isolated. The news of wedding tours to North Korea and new baby naming laws suggests a bizarre attempt to normalize life amidst war. The discussions on military volunteerism, while intended to boost morale, also reveal underlying problems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• US Political Figures: Both RUF and UAF channels are actively monitoring and reporting on Donald Trump's statements regarding the Israel-Iran conflict, and Trump's potential meeting with Zelenskyy (confirmed by White House), underscoring the perceived impact of US political figures on the broader geopolitical landscape relevant to the conflict. Zelenskiy / Official's meeting with US Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Chris Coons, where Trump's ceasefire initiative was discussed, indicates an open diplomatic channel and a willingness to engage on all proposals while maintaining Ukraine's sovereignty. The fake news about Trump's Nobel Peace Prize, quickly propagated by RUF channels, highlights RUF's attempts to manipulate international narratives around key figures, with Alex Parker Returns actively participating in this fabrication. TASS and Alex Parker Returns continued to propagate the fabricated Israel-Iran conflict narrative. TASS also reports the Israeli Army Chief of Staff stating the campaign against Iran is "not over" (contradicting RUF IO) and later still reported that Israeli army command has cancelled all restrictions, and Iran's airspace is open, confirming the de-escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, and TASS quotes Peseshkian presenting an Iranian "victory" narrative. РБК-Україна's analysis of "Why Iran immediately violated the truce with Israel" suggests Ukraine's active engagement with and analysis of these shifting narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Netherlands Aid: Netherlands' commitment to fund 600,000 drones and provide 100 anti-UAV radars is a significant boost to UAF capabilities and demonstrates continued, practical international support. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 confirmed Netherlands' new military aid package of 675 million euros. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• German Aid: Germany's government approving an €8.3 billion military aid budget for Ukraine this year is a substantial commitment to long-term support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Czech-Slovakian Aid: Два майора reports that a Czech-Slovak company transferred a Shark aircraft to Ukraine for UAV suppression using EW, indicating new Western support for EW capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NATO/EU Engagement: Zelenskiy / Official, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 all shared photos of Zelenskyy's joint meeting with the Presidents of the European Council and European Commission and the NATO Secretary General, explicitly stating work towards "unity of all allies," demonstrating continued high-level institutional support. Zelenskyy's warning to the Dutch parliament about Russian plans for "hostile and potentially destructive operations on NATO territory" is a significant diplomatic message. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shared photos of NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte discussing Ukraine at the NATO Public Forum, further highlighting international engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Other Diplomatic Engagements: TASS reports Lavrov arrived in Turkmenistan, indicating RUF continues diplomatic efforts in Central Asia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Consolidated Offensive on Donetsk Axis with Intensified Ballistic Missile/UAV/KAB Strikes on Urban Centers and Force Generation Targets; Continued Northern Probing with Localized Incursions and Increased Internal Control Measures; Amplified Hybrid Warfare with Dehumanizing Rhetoric and Global Event Exploitation: RUF will likely continue high-intensity ground assaults on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka, Chasiv Yar), aiming to consolidate claimed gains (Dyleyevka, Perebudova, Petrovske/Hrekivka, "successes near Konstantinovka," Krasnolimansk direction) and exploit perceived UAF logistical vulnerabilities, supported by heavy air and artillery strikes, with increasing use of precision FPV drones against UAF logistics and artillery, including UAF UAV control points and claimed Abrams/T-72 destruction. Concurrently, RUF will conduct intensified ballistic missile (e.g., Iskander), KAB (Sumy, Zaporizhzhia), and Shahed/Geran-2 UAV strikes on major Ukrainian urban centers (Dnipro, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa) and increasingly target UAF force generation facilities (training centers, temporary deployment areas) and critical infrastructure (railways, energy facilities, including passenger trains, and claimed military-industrial targets) to degrade Ukraine's long-term combat power and inflict maximum civilian casualties and psychological impact, leveraging the increased casualty figures (now 17 KIA in Dnipro) for domestic messaging. In Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, RUF will likely maintain or increase reconnaissance UAV activity and probing ground assaults (as evidenced by 10 repelled assaults), potentially conducting localized ground incursions or "buffer zone" expansion efforts in specific border communities, possibly backed by artillery and KABs (Sumy), aiming to tie down UAF forces and create humanitarian crises, supported by narratives and visual evidence (e.g., Старше Эдды photos) of their presence. RUF will implement and enforce new internal control measures (military registration fines, police powers, stateless persons in military, national messenger, asset blocking, film censorship, "foreign agent" laws, Russian language law, parental consent for bank accounts, utility payment deadline, federal budget changes, the extension of "Phoenix" data verification, the militarization of youth through educational initiatives, the banning of organizations like "Allatra", FSB control over scientists, new name regulations, and internal anti-corruption crackdowns like Rostovvodokanal arrest) to bolster internal stability and facilitate future mobilization and recruitment. RUF will maintain its aggressive, multi-faceted internal IO campaign, focusing on justifying internal security measures (e.g., spy captures) and showcasing domestic support for the war, while also increasingly engaging in hybrid warfare by fabricating events and spreading disinformation globally to distract from the conflict in Ukraine and sow discord among international partners. This will include continued, explicit dehumanizing rhetoric against Ukrainian leadership and military. RUF will continue to suppress information in occupied territories, evidenced by the mobile internet shutdown in Kherson. RUF will continue to leverage open-source intelligence for targeting as a tactical adaptation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Coordinated Breakthrough on Donetsk/Luhansk Axes Paired with a Major Ground Offensive from Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts, Under Cover of a Nationwide Ballistic Missile Saturation Campaign and False-Flag Operations, and Escalated Information Warfare: RUF will launch a highly coordinated, multi-wave ballistic missile (Iskander) and KAB saturation attack on critical UAF military and government command nodes, major urban centers, and key infrastructure across Ukraine (Kyiv, Dnipro, Poltava, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa), specifically targeting railway hubs and energy infrastructure, designed to overwhelm UAF AD and cause significant disruption and panic, leveraging the increased casualty figures for domestic justification. Simultaneously, RUF will launch a major ground offensive aimed at achieving an operational breakthrough on the Donetsk and/or Luhansk axes, leveraging heavy air support and exploiting any UAF repositioning, with the objective of reaching key operational lines (e.g., Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration). Critically, this would be complemented by a major ground offensive launched from Sumy Oblast and/or Kharkiv Oblast, aimed at seizing significant territory, creating a deep "buffer zone," or reaching key objectives, forcing Ukraine to commit substantial reserves to a new northern front, potentially diverting forces from critical eastern sectors. This entire operation would be conducted under the cover of a significantly escalated RUF internal IO campaign emphasizing the need for decisive action against "terrorists" and "abductors" from Ukraine, potentially accompanied by false-flag operations (e.g., attacks on border communities, critical infrastructure in RF) attributed to Ukraine or "Western provocateurs" to further justify the intensified war effort, mobilize domestic support, and manipulate international response. The IO campaign will escalate its dehumanization and incitement to violence, potentially leading to increased targeted assassinations or overt threats. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 0-6 hours, starting from 241737Z JUN 25):

  • RUF: Expect continued RUF ballistic missile/KAB/UAV threats/strikes in central, eastern, and southern Ukraine, with a focus on urban centers and potential military targets (including claimed missile/armored vehicle production plant). RUF will continue to disseminate claims of tactical gains in Donetsk/Luhansk Oblast (including "successes near Konstantinovka," Krasnolimansk direction, Dyleyevka capture) and use its IO to amplify domestic security narratives (e.g., spy captures, scientist control) and mock Ukrainian casualties, and exploit international events (Israel-Iran conflict, NATO summit, Serbia arms exports, Iranian nuclear program). Continued reconnaissance UAV activity and probing ground assaults, potentially localized ground "advances," and KAB strikes in Sumy and Kursk Oblasts. Increased focus on domestic messaging related to new laws, social benefits, and recruitment, and the implications of the extension of "Phoenix" data verification. RUF will continue to publicize successes like the Rybar video on ambushing enemy transport, and new MoD videos on destroying defenses, and Воин DV's claims. The fabricated "victory" of Iran over Israel will continue to be pushed by some channels, while others shift to new narratives around de-escalation, impeachment, or other political developments. RUF will also continue to promote the "Iron Curtain" narrative regarding NATO mining borders.
  • UAF Decision Point: Maintain highest AD readiness across all threatened oblasts, prioritizing interception of ballistic missiles and KABs, particularly given the recent alert for Sumy Oblast (even if cancelled). Immediately verify RUF claims regarding Dyleyevka, Perebudova and Petrovske/Hrekivka, and "successes near Konstantinovka," Krasnolimansk direction and assess the security of the surrounding defensive lines and logistical routes. Investigate confirmed RUF ground activity and new map/claims of "advance" in Sumy "buffer zone" urgently, including the claims and photos by Старше Эдды. Proactively monitor RUF IO channels for any new escalatory narratives or shifts in focus on domestic security and geopolitical events (e.g., Israel-Iran, NATO, Serbia). Continue to highlight RUF's deliberate civilian targeting and war crimes, especially the escalating casualties in Dnipro (now 17 KIA, 279 wounded) and the railway infrastructure strike. Continue high-level diplomatic engagement (e.g., with US Senators, EU, NATO) to secure ongoing support, and address RUF disinformation about such engagements. Proactively debunk the fabricated Israel-Iran "victory" and Trump's Nobel Prize nomination, adapting quickly to the shifting RUF narrative on this. Address challenges faced by frontline units (e.g., damaged vehicles).

• Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):

  • RUF: RUF will likely maintain or increase ballistic missile/KAB/UAV strikes on Ukrainian urban centers and critically assess damage to claimed military-industrial/force generation/logistical targets. Ground pressure on the Donetsk/Luhansk axes will likely continue, potentially with increased special forces activity and attempts to exploit any UAF vulnerabilities. Increased localized ground activity and/or shaping operations should be expected in specific border areas of Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, following continued reconnaissance UAV activity, KAB strikes, and "buffer zone" claims, aiming to tie down UAF forces or conduct limited incursions. RUF will maintain a dual-track IO strategy, attempting to keep international attention on other crises while escalating narratives justifying its war in Ukraine and implementing new internal regulations and expanding recruitment efforts, including for military-patriotic youth programs, and the continued implementation of data control measures like "Phoenix" verification, and increased state control over information and society.
  • UAF Decision Point: Sustain intensified AD operations and enhance force protection for civilian and critical infrastructure targets, including railways and energy facilities, and particularly for UAF training centers, temporary deployment areas, and logistics hubs. Continue to reinforce defensive lines on the Donetsk and Luhansk axes, and be prepared for continued RUF ground assaults, including attempts to cut logistical lines. Reinforce defensive posture, intelligence, and reconnaissance, particularly with EW and counter-drone systems (e.g., new Shark aircraft), in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblast border communities in anticipation of increased RUF activity or incursions. Prioritize rapid integration and deployment of newly acquired FPV drones and incoming international AD/anti-UAV systems from partners like the Netherlands and Germany. Publicize UAF successes (repelled assaults, aid packages, training, RUF oil depot strikes, SBU successes, 3rd Assault Brigade actions, UAF SOF actions, Orlan-30 downing, drone successes in Sumy) and international support to counter RUF narratives and boost morale, while acknowledging the severe impact of RUF terror strikes on civilians and coordinating humanitarian relief. Continue to push for tighter sanctions enforcement against companies supplying RUF with military components. Actively counter RUF's attempts to control information in occupied territories. Address unit-level material needs and challenges transparently.

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6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Surge all-source ISR assets (IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT) to Dyleyevka, Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast), Petrovske/Hrekivka (Luhansk Oblast), and Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts. Immediately verify RUF claims of capture/presence, particularly the claimed "advance" in Sumy and the "buffer zone" (including assessing Старше Эдды's report), and "successes near Konstantinovka," and "Krasnolimansk direction." Assess tactical implications, particularly regarding UAF logistical routes (Konstantinovka) and any northern incursions (including newly mapped areas).
2. IMMEDIATE: Conduct urgent, detailed BDA on all ballistic missile strikes in Dnipro and reported RUF FPV drone strikes. Prioritize specific targets (e.g., railway lines, civilian institutions, UAF deployment areas, ammo depots) and the extent of damage to inform AD and force protection. Identify munition types (e.g., Iskander) and new RUF drone tactics. Verify RUF claim of "locomotive repair plant" strike in Dnipro, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's claim of hitting a "rocket and armored vehicle production plant," and the extent of damage to the passenger train. Confirm the use of Iskander missiles in Dnipro as reported by Poddubny.
3. HIGH: Prioritize all-source ISR (IMINT, SIGINT, EWINT) on Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Focus on the border areas to confirm RUF "buffer zone" claims or any build-up for a larger offensive, including troop concentrations and logistics, especially given KAB strikes and Kotsnews' claims of "advance." Determine precise intent behind persistent RUF reconnaissance UAV activity and ground probing.
4. HIGH: Conduct detailed SIGINT and HUMINT on RUF communication lines and troop movements on the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Sumy/Kharkiv axes, specifically to identify any further attempts to cross rivers, establish new bridgeheads, or intensify special forces operations or larger ground movements.
5. HIGH: Monitor RUF and pro-RUF IO channels for any further shifts in narrative regarding domestic security and "pro-Ukrainian" activities in RF territory, as this indicates RUF's strategic intent to justify internal actions and frame the conflict. Pay close attention to mockery of civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, the amplification of geopolitical narratives (e.g., "Iron Curtain," fabricated Israel-Iran conflict, Iranian nuclear program), and explicit dehumanizing rhetoric (e.g., Военкор Котенок's post). Track RUF recruitment efforts, the implications of the extension of "Phoenix" data verification until November 1st for internal control, and the new "traditional values" indoctrination initiative for youth. Investigate reports of internal discipline breakdown (e.g., serviceman criminality). Monitor the narratives around the Israel-Iran conflict (e.g., Trump's Nobel Peace Prize nomination, impeachment moves, de-escalation, Iranian "victory" claims) for how RUF channels adapt and use them, noting inconsistencies. Monitor reports of RUF using open-source intelligence for targeting.
6. HIGH: Verify the specific targets and BDA of the "Rubikon" BLA strikes reported by RUF in Donetsk/Kherson directions, specifically the claimed ammunition depot and the truck/artillery piece. Also verify the RUF claim of destroying a UAF UAV control point in Kharkiv Oblast and the claim of Abrams destruction by Lancet in Sumy Oblast, and Воин DV's claim of destroying a UAF T-72 tank, ATV, and vehicle with personnel, and their new claimed hits in Karl Marx (Mirne). Clarify the identity of the tank in Colonelcassad's video to ascertain if it is indeed an Abrams or another type of tank.
7. HIGH: Assess the impact of RUF dropping nearly 100 bombs on its own and occupied territories since the start of the year. This data provides critical insight into RUF munitions control and accuracy, and potential internal issues.
8. MEDIUM: Obtain more information on the reported missile strike on the "Espanyola" marine base in Crimea. Determine if they are results of UAF strikes, internal sabotage, or accidents, to inform future planning. Also, thoroughly assess Rybar's report on UAF activation in Black Sea/Crimea area, and the specific details of "Organization and conduct of an ambush on enemy transport" video. Monitor the impact and duration of the mobile internet shutdown in occupied Kherson Oblast. Investigate the cause and implications of Aeroflot flight adjustments to Kazan, Samara, and Saratov.

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

1. URGENT: Maintain highest AD readiness across Kyiv, Dnipro, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Poltava, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, and Odesa Oblast, particularly in Sumy Oblast given recent alerts. Prioritize assets capable of intercepting ballistic missiles (e.g., Iskander) and counter-UAV systems, given the recent surge in attacks and confirmed high civilian casualties (now 17 KIA), and demonstrated strikes on passenger trains. Ensure rapid re-engagement capabilities and saturation defense.
2. HIGH: Review and enhance force protection measures for all critical infrastructure, especially railway hubs and lines, energy facilities, military training facilities, temporary deployment areas, schools, and hospitals in central and eastern Ukraine, given the direct hits on civilian infrastructure and a train, and UAF facilities. Disperse valuable assets and explore hardening measures, including anti-drone tunnels for logistics routes.
3. CRITICAL: Accelerate the delivery and integration of the 600,000 drones and 100 anti-UAV radars pledged by the Netherlands, and leverage the €8.3 billion from Germany for AD and other critical needs, including the new Shark EW aircraft from Czech-Slovakia. Prioritize training personnel on these new systems.

6.3. Ground Forces:

1. IMMEDIATE: Confirm or deny RUF claims of Dyleyevka, Perebudova and Petrovske/Hrekivka capture, and "successes near Konstantinovka," and "Krasnolimansk direction." If confirmed, immediately reinforce defensive positions in those sectors and establish counter-attack plans, particularly focusing on protecting logistics routes to Konstantinovka.
2. URGENT: Continue to reinforce defensive positions on the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia axes, specifically focusing on preventing further RUF breakthroughs and consolidating existing lines. Be prepared for increased special forces activity targeting logistics.
3. URGENT: Elevate readiness and reinforce defensive lines and fortifications in specific border areas of Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts (including near any claimed "buffer zones"). Be prepared for intensified RUF ground activity or a limited new offensive, following the increased reconnaissance UAV activity, KAB strikes, and RUF claims/assaults. Prioritize defensive engineering efforts shown by 23rd Engineer Regiment and anti-drone tunnel construction in Zaporizhzhia, and continue basic military training. Support localized counter-actions as demonstrated by 3rd Assault Brigade, Ghost of Khortytsia drone operations, UAF SOF actions on Pokrovsk direction, and 128th OGShBr counter-UAV actions, and STERNENKO's reported drone successes in Sumy and Kursk. Continue to support unit-level logistical needs like vehicle acquisition for drone units (e.g., 421st Separate UAV Battalion "Sapsan"), leveraging public support, and addressing unit-level material needs for equipment repair/replacement.
4. HIGH: Continue accelerating training programs and recruitment efforts for drone units and EW teams, emphasizing their critical role in both ISR and offensive/defensive operations. Leverage newly acquired FPV drones effectively and prioritize drone repair capabilities.
5. HIGH: Support initiatives to bolster Ukraine's domestic military-industrial complex through funding and allowing partial export of arms, as reported by RBC-Ukraine, to enhance long-term sustainment.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Issue rapid, verifiable counter-narratives to RUF claims of Dyleyevka, Perebudova, Petrovske/Hrekivka, Sumy/Kharkiv "buffer zone" capture/presence, "successes near Konstantinovka," "Krasnolimansk direction" or attempting to recapture Mali Shcherbaky. Provide transparent, evidence-based updates on UAF defensive operations, highlighting repelled assaults and fortification building, and showcasing successful localized counter-actions.
2. URGENT: Launch a globally coordinated IO campaign to highlight Russia's deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure, including schools, hospitals, railways (passenger train), and energy facilities, and the escalating number of civilian casualties (now 17 KIA). Expose RUF's continuous war crimes and its blatant disregard for international humanitarian law, particularly the "mockery" from RUF channels of civilian suffering and the genocidal rhetoric. Use the Dnipro casualty figures (17 dead, 279 wounded) and Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi strike to underscore the brutality. Emphasize Zelenskyy's direct address to Putin on war crimes.
3. HIGH: Publicize UAF successes in drone procurement (Netherlands aid, German aid, Czech-Slovak EW aircraft) and fortification building, and drone repair capabilities, as well as ongoing military training. Emphasize Ukraine's resilience, innovation, and growing self-sufficiency in defense, while also acknowledging the vital role of international support. Publicize successful UAF deep strikes on RUF territory (e.g., oil depots, Kursk logistics) and RUF KIA. Highlight SBU counter-intelligence successes (FSB agent jailing). Highlight successful counter-UAV operations. Publicize Ukrainian success in evacuating citizens from Iran. Highlight the bankruptcy of Russian microelectronics enterprises. Publicize efforts related to occupied territories like Melitopol.
4. HIGH: Counter RUF narratives that attempt to demoralize Ukrainian population or frame the conflict as an inevitable defeat. Reiterate Ukraine's principled stand for peace based on territorial integrity and sovereignty. Counter Russian attempts to culturally oppress (e.g., exclusion of Ukrainian language from schools).
5. HIGH: Collaborate with international partners to fact-check and expose RUF's internal propaganda related to domestic security and "pro-Ukrainian" threats, demonstrating their use of these narratives to justify repression and sustained aggression. Proactively address RUF attempts to link Ukraine to broader geopolitical crises and their claims of "failed isolation." Highlight the significance of RUF KIA data from channels like БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС to counter RUF's narrative of minimal losses. Counter the new youth indoctrination efforts in Russia. Debunk the fabricated Israel-Iran conflict narratives and the use of the Trump Nobel Prize nomination to divert attention, and adapt quickly to shifting narratives (e.g., de-escalation of Israel-Iran). Highlight RUF's use of open-source intelligence for targeting.

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END OF REPORT