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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-06-24 15:08:14Z
8 months ago
Previous (2025-06-24 15:01:48Z)

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

  • Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues to claim "liberation" of Perebudova and control over Dyleyevka, describing it as a "powerful fortified area" on the approaches to Konstantinovka, allowing "fire control" over UAF logistics. The UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) continues to report active clashes near Dyliyivka (Toretsk direction) and Pokrovsk direction (Promin, Novotoretske, Myrolubivka, Lysivka, Novoukrayinka, Novoserhiyivka, Udachne, Myrnohrad, Oleksiyivka, Popiv Yar, Malynivka, Koptyevye and towards Shakhove, Volodymyrivka, Molodetske, Serhiyivka, Novopavlivka), confirming active combat in these claimed areas. Rybar indicates RUF successes near Konstantinovka. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports UAF Special Operations Forces destroyed a Russian assault group on the Pokrovsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on Perebudova, Dyleyevka; UAF confirms active combat; LOW CONFIDENCE – independent verification of RUF control over these settlements and the tactical implications for Konstantinovka; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Rybar's claim, requires verification; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF successful action reported by Butusov Plus).
  • Luhansk Oblast: RUF sources continue to claim the "liberation" of Petrovske (Hrekivka), asserting that "LNR is completely liberated." The UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports clashes yesterday near Tverdokhlibove, Ridkodub, Karpivka, Kolodyazi and towards Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyny, Novyi Myr, Olhivka (Lyman direction), indicating active combat in the broader area of Hrekivka/Petrovske. Оперативний ЗСУ (Operational ZSU) reports the 3rd Assault Brigade is pushing occupiers out near Ridkodub. Басурин (Basurin) claims RUF confidently advancing on Krasnolimansk direction with video of artillery fire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on Petrovske/Hrekivka, UAF confirms active combat; LOW CONFIDENCE – verification of RUF control over Petrovske/Hrekivka; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report of counter-action; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Basurin's claim, unverified).
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): RUF launched ballistic missiles against Dnipro city. Updated reports from UAF official sources and local administration (Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ) confirm an increase in casualties: 15 dead and 174 wounded. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports four explosions in Dnipropetrovsk industrial zone, likely Iskander. RUF sources claim a "powerful strike" was made against a "locomotive repair plant in Dnipropetrovsk," framing it as a strike on UAF logistics. Zelenskiy / Official also shared video of a damaged passenger train, indicating a direct hit on railway infrastructure. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration) explicitly states the passenger train "Odesa - Zaporizhzhia" was damaged. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF/Independent sources on impacts and casualties, including the increase; HIGH CONFIDENCE – Civilian targeting; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claim on specific military target within Dnipro, requires BDA; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Damage to passenger train confirmed; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Poddubny reporting on Iskander use).
  • Sumy Oblast: The UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) explicitly reports UAF forces repelled 10 RUF assaults yesterday in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, confirming active combat and persistent RUF pressure in the border region. A new map from Z комитет + карта СВО on the Sumy direction (June 13-23, 2025) highlights territorial changes. STERNENKO shared video of defensive positions in Sumy region. Kotsnews reports on "the first report on the advance of the Russian Armed Forces in Sumy Oblast." Air Force of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports a destroyed Abrams tank in Sumy Oblast due to Lancet. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF repelled assaults in Sumy/Kursk; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claim of "buffer zone" in Sumy, active combat confirmed; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF defensive preparations in Sumy, RUF KAB strikes in Sumy; LOW CONFIDENCE - Abrams destruction claim, unverified).
  • Kharkiv Oblast: UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Ozerne, Mala Vovcha of Kharkiv region. Clashes yesterday near Dvorichna, Hlyboke, Vovchanski Khutory, Krasne Pershe and Fyholivka (South Slobozhansky direction) and near Kindrashivka, Kruhlyakivka and towards Pischane, Petropavlivka (Kupyansk direction). MoD Russia published video of Grad MLRS strike near the border in Kharkiv region. Привид Хортиці (Ghost of Khortytsia) shared video of UAF drone operations targeting enemy positions and a boat in Slobozhanshchyna, demonstrating UAF counter-action capabilities. Colonelcassad shared video claiming destruction of an enemy UAV control point in Kharkiv Oblast (likely a UAF asset). (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports on RUF airstrikes and clashes; HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF MLRS activity in Kharkiv; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF drone operations in Kharkiv; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim of UAV control point destruction).
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Novoselivka, Mala Tokmachka of Zaporizhzhia region. UAF Air Force reports activity of RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration is scaling up protection for Defense Forces by constructing new anti-drone tunnels for logistics routes. Air Force of Ukraine reports missile danger and KAB launches in Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official reports on AD alerts). UAF Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation on the southeastern direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Kherson Oblast: UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 6 Russian army assaults in the Kherson direction. "Два майора" shared video of FPV drone and UAV-KT combat work by 127th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade in Kherson direction, showing a struck truck and artillery piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official report; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF combat footage, unverified BDA by UAF).
  • Odesa Oblast: STERNENKO reports that Vasya Lomachenko is upset due to the Russian strike on a lyceum in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF reporting on strike).
  • Other Axes (UAF General Staff Reports):
    • Siversk direction: Clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka.
    • Kramatorsk direction: Clashes yesterday near Novomarkove, Chasiv Yar and towards Mykolayivka, Stupochok, Pryvillya, Bondarne.
    • Novopavlivka direction: Clashes yesterday near Bahatyr, Novosilka, Zaporizhzhya, Perebudova, Komar, Myrne, Shevchenko, Vilne Pole and towards Voskresenka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports).
  • RF Territory (Various Regions): ASTRA and RUF MoD via TASS claimed Russian air defense forces destroyed 34 Ukrainian UAVs over various regions of Russia, with TASS specifically claiming 18 UAVs shot down in three hours. Igor Artamonov (Governor, Lipetsk Oblast) reports a UAV threat in Usmansky and Dobrinsky districts. Оперативний ЗСУ shared photos claiming 8 RUF oil depots after drone attacks by UAV forces. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows video of a RUF soldier killed by UAF drone. РБК-Україна reports RUF has dropped almost 100 bombs on its own and occupied territories since the beginning of the year. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims, RUF internal reporting on UAV threats; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF claims on oil depot strikes; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF combat footage; HIGH CONFIDENCE - RBC-Ukraine report on RUF dropping bombs on own territory). Рыбарь shares video message captioned "Organization and conduct of an ambush on enemy transport." (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Rybar video, unverified BDA).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

  • Air Force of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, indicating suitable weather for tactical aviation. Colonelcassad's animated strike map shows widespread missile/drone activity across Ukraine for 23-24 JUN, indicating suitable conditions for air operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

  • Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF):
    • Ground Forces: UAF maintains active defensive operations across multiple axes, repelling assaults in Sumy/Kursk, Kherson, and engaging in clashes in Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka directions. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration is actively constructing anti-drone tunnels to protect logistics. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the 3rd Assault Brigade is pushing occupiers out near Ridkodub (Lyman direction). Привид Хортиці (Ghost of Khortytsia) showcases UAF drone operations in Slobozhanshchyna (Kharkiv/Sumy), destroying enemy positions and a boat. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of UAF Special Operations Forces destroying a Russian assault group on the Pokrovsk direction, including drone footage of the combat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Air Defense (AD): UAF Air Force continues to provide real-time warnings of RUF missile and KAB threats (Sumy, Donetsk Oblast, Zaporizhzhia), including reports of activity of enemy tactical aviation on the southeastern direction. UAF AD is engaged in intercepting RUF attacks, but the volume of RUF strikes continues to cause significant civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, particularly from ballistic missiles (Dnipro, Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi). UAF Air Force reports active RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and tactical aviation activity on the northeast direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Deep Strike Capability: UAF continues to conduct drone strikes deep into RF territory, as evidenced by RUF claims of intercepting 34 UAVs and UAF claims of hitting 8 oil depots. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows UAF drone operations resulting in RUF KIA. РБК-Україна reports RUF has dropped almost 100 bombs on its own and occupied territories since the beginning of the year, likely due to technical failures/friendly fire or a lack of precision, which benefits UAF operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Information Operations (IO): Ukrainian channels (РБК-Україна, Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration, Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Zelenskiy / Official) continue to provide immediate assessments and photographic/video evidence of RUF attacks and their consequences, highlighting civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure (Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa), including damages to a passenger train in Dnipro, with updated casualty counts for Dnipro. Zelenskiy / Official reported on a meeting with US Congress Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Chris Coons, discussing support for Ukraine, the peace process, and President Trump's ceasefire initiative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Russian Forces (RUF):
    • Ground Operations: RUF MoD claims "liberation" of Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast). RUF continues to claim "mopping up" Dyleyevka (Donetsk Oblast) and "complete liberation" of Petrovske/Hrekivka (Luhansk Oblast). Kotsnews reports on RUF advance in Sumy. UAF General Staff confirms active clashes in these areas, indicating RUF intent to advance and consolidate. Persistent RUF assaults continue in Sumy/Kursk and Kherson directions. WarGonzo shows aerial footage of destroyed residential areas, claiming "Somalis demolish houses with AFU members inside," indicating continued destructive operations against UAF positions. MoD Russia shows Grad MLRS strike in Kharkiv as part of "buffer zone" creation. Басурин (Basurin) claims RUF "confidently advancing on Krasnolimansk direction" with video of artillery. Рыбарь shares video message captioned "Organization and conduct of an ambush on enemy transport." (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims and UAF confirmation of active combat; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Basurin video; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Rybar video, unverified BDA).
    • Artillery/Air Strikes: RUF employed ballistic missiles (claimed 4 Iskanders) on Dnipro, causing significant civilian infrastructure damage and casualties (now 15 dead, 174 wounded), including a passenger train. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports four explosions in Dnipropetrovsk industrial zone, likely Iskander. RUF aviation continues airstrikes in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia (KABs), Sumy (KABs), and Odesa Oblasts. MoD Russia shows Grad MLRS activity in Kharkiv. "Два майора" shows combat work of 127th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade FPV drones in Kherson direction, striking a truck and artillery. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА claims Abrams destroyed by Lancet in Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad provides an animated map of RUF strikes on Ukraine, 23-24 JUN. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF reports on strikes, RUF claims on specific targets/munition types; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Civilian targeting; LOW CONFIDENCE - Abrams destruction claim, unverified; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Poddubny Iskander report).
    • Internal Security Operations: RUF State Duma is tightening internal controls via legislation regarding military registration and traffic violations, allowing stateless persons to serve in military, and creating a national digital service/messenger. Putin signed a law on blocking financial assets and property of individuals and organizations suspected of involvement in sabotage. Mash на Донбассе reports that the data verification period for "Phoenix" (presumably a telecommunications or data service) has been extended until November 1, officially. This indicates ongoing internal administrative and control measures, possibly related to data collection or oversight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting on legislation and administrative control).
    • Information Operations (IO): RUF channels (TASS, Colonelcassad, Basurin, Poddubny, WarGonzo, Операция Z, MoD Russia, Два майора, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Новости Москвы, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, Alex Parker Returns, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Z комитет + карта СВО, Kotsnews, Воин DV, «Зона СВО», Mash на Донбассе, Рыбарь, Старше Эдды) continue to aggressively disseminate claims of tactical successes and amplify domestic narratives. Два майора promotes "Radio Sputnik" as a source where "everything becomes clear," indicating a continued effort to push state-controlled narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

  • CRITICAL: Immediate and independent verification of RUF claims regarding confirmed capture of Dyleyevka, Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast) and Petrovske/Hrekivka (Luhansk Oblast). Assess tactical implications of any confirmed RUF gains in these areas, particularly regarding control over UAF logistics routes to Konstantinovka. Verify Rybar's claims of "successes near Konstantinovka" and Basurin's claims of RUF advance on Krasnolimansk direction. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
  • CRITICAL: Verify the extent and intent of RUF ground activity in Sumy Oblast. Kotsnews claims RUF "advance" in Sumy; coupled with KAB strikes, this indicates potential for intensified ground operations beyond just probing. Determine specific locations of RUF incursions, force size, and intent (raids, limited occupation, or shaping for larger offensive). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
  • HIGH: Conduct comprehensive BDA on all recent RUF ballistic missile, KAB, and UAV strikes, especially in Dnipro and Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi (Odesa Oblast). Verify specific targets (e.g., railway station area, schools, hospitals, residential buildings, train line) and damage assessment, and confirm munition types (e.g., Iskander, KAB variants). Specifically, verify RUF claim of "locomotive repair plant" strike in Dnipro and the extent of damage to the passenger train. Confirm the use of Iskander missiles in Dnipro as reported by Poddubny. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA teams, IMINT, OSINT).
  • HIGH: Monitor RUF internal security operations (e.g., FSB arrests in Zaporizhzhia, serviceman investigation in Bashkortostan, Kherson resident arrest, blocking assets of saboteurs) and new legislation (military registration, traffic control, stateless persons in military, national messenger, asset blocking, film censorship, "foreign agent" laws, Russian language law, parental consent for bank accounts, utility payment deadline, federal budget changes, and the extension of data verification period for "Phoenix"). Analyze the intent behind publicizing such operations and laws, particularly concerning potential false-flag preparations or justifications for internal repression and mobilization. Also monitor recruitment for "African Corps" and volunteer tenders, and expansion of military-patriotic clubs and university military training centers. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
  • HIGH: Verify the specific targets and BDA of the "Rubikon" BLA strikes reported by RUF in Donetsk/Kherson directions, specifically the claimed ammunition depot and the truck/artillery piece. Also verify the RUF claim of destroying a UAF UAV control point in Kharkiv Oblast and the claim of Abrams destruction by Lancet in Sumy Oblast. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT).
  • HIGH: Assess the impact of RUF dropping nearly 100 bombs on its own and occupied territories since the start of the year. Determine if this indicates systemic issues with RUF aerial munitions or a deliberate strategy. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT).
  • MEDIUM: Obtain more information on the reported missile strike on the "Espanyola" marine base in Crimea. Determine the munition type, BDA, and impact on RUF capabilities. Also, assess the significance of Rybar's report on UAF activation in Black Sea/Crimea area, and the specific details of "Organization and conduct of an ambush on enemy transport" video. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT, SIGINT).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

  • Ground Capabilities: RUF continues to demonstrate capability for localized ground advances, particularly on the Donetsk axis, aiming to seize key UAF strongholds and logistical nodes (e.g., Dyleyevka, Perebudova near Konstantinovka, Krasnolimansk direction). Rybar's claim of "successes near Konstantinovka" indicates continued RUF focus on this area. The UAF General Staff reports of 10 repelled assaults in Sumy/Kursk, and the Kotsnews report on RUF "advance" in Sumy, confirm persistent RUF ground pressure and capability in the north, even if no major breakthrough has occurred. RUF continues destructive operations against UAF positions, as evidenced by WarGonzo's footage and MoD Russia's MLRS strikes. New RUF footage ("Rubicon," "Два майора," Воин DV, MoD Russia, Рыбарь) demonstrates sustained FPV drone and UAV-KT combat work, targeting UAF logistics (ammunition depots, trucks), artillery pieces, and now including claimed strikes on UAF UAV control points and claimed Abrams destruction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Artillery/Air Capabilities: RUF executed a mass-casualty ballistic missile strike on Dnipro using at least four Iskander-M missiles, causing 15 KIA and 174 wounded, damaging schools, a hospital, and a passenger train. RUF aviation continues airstrikes in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia (KABs), Sumy (KABs), and Odesa Oblasts. RUF reconnaissance UAV activity remains high in critical areas like Zaporizhzhia and the northeast/southeast directions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Information Warfare Capabilities: RUF's IO remains highly agile and adaptive, rapidly amplifying claims of tactical gains (Dyleyevka, Petrovske/Hrekivka, Sumy "buffer zone", Perebudova, "successes near Konstantinovka," Krasnolimansk), domestic issues, and attempting to project control by claiming "buffer zones" in Ukraine. They continue to use disinformation to justify internal crackdowns and maintain public support, and are actively shaping narratives around international events. The extension of "Phoenix" data verification suggests ongoing efforts to control information flow and monitor digital communications within occupied territories or Russia itself. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Intentions: RUF intends to:
    • Sustain Offensive Pressure & Consolidate Gains: Continue high-intensity ground assaults on key axes (Donetsk, Luhansk) to achieve localized gains and attrit UAF forces, attempting to sever UAF logistics, particularly towards Konstantinovka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Degrade UAF Morale and Capabilities: Through continued terror strikes against civilian targets and military-industrial/force generation infrastructure using ballistic missiles, KABs, and UAVs. This includes targeting critical transport infrastructure like train lines, training/deployment centers, and logistics hubs. The increased casualties in Dnipro (15 dead, 174 wounded) highlight the continued lethal effectiveness of these strikes against civilian populations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Reinforce Domestic Support & Legitimacy: Use claims of tactical gains, internal security actions, and publicize domestic support for the military to reinforce internal cohesion and project control. The new administrative measure regarding "Phoenix" data verification indicates an ongoing tightening of domestic information control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Exert Control over Border Areas: The persistent assaults and "buffer zone" claims in Sumy/Kharkiv, combined with confirmed RUF ground activity, KAB strikes, and Kotsnews reporting an "advance," strongly suggest a long-term intent to establish a physical presence in northern Ukraine or at least to destabilize the border regions and tie down UAF forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Shape International Narrative: RUF seeks to project itself as a relevant geopolitical actor, sow discord among Western partners, or divert attention from Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

  • RUF: Continued high volume of ballistic missiles (claimed 4 Iskanders in Dnipro, confirmed by Poddubny), KABs (Sumy, Zaporizhzhia), and Shahed/Geran-2 UAVs for deep strikes and shaping operations. The claimed capture of Dyleyevka, Perebudova and Petrovske/Hrekivka indicates persistent focus on expanding control in Donetsk/Luhansk Oblasts, with Rybar confirming "successes near Konstantinovka" and Basurin claiming "advances" on Krasnolimansk. Increased targeting of UAF training centers and temporary deployment areas indicates an adaptation to degrade UAF force generation, and now includes direct hits on passenger trains. The continued, unsuccessful ground assaults in Sumy/Kursk, despite the large force concentration reported in the previous ISR, suggest a probing or attritional strategy for now, but the intent for a "buffer zone" or larger offensive remains, now overtly stated with MLRS activity in Kharkiv and Kotsnews' claims of "advance" in Sumy. The Rybar video on "Organization and conduct of an ambush on enemy transport" suggests specific tactical adaptations in anti-logistics operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Tightening internal regulations and new recruitment efforts reflect efforts to increase societal control and expand recruitment in support of the war effort. The extension of "Phoenix" data verification until November 1st underscores a persistent administrative effort to control digital information and possibly facilitate greater surveillance or data access related to the war effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF: Continues to demonstrate effective AD responses to RUF UAVs in some areas, but struggles with the volume and type (ballistic, KAB) of deeper strikes. UAF is actively building fortifications, including anti-drone tunnels for logistics, as well as engaging in basic general military training and advanced procurement training. UAF ground forces are effectively repelling multiple RUF assaults across various axes, indicating strong defensive posture, and are conducting limited counter-actions (e.g., 3rd Assault Brigade near Ridkodub, Ghost of Khortytsia drone operations, UAF SOF destroying RUF assault group on Pokrovsk direction). UAF continues deep strikes on RUF territory, evidenced by reported oil depot strikes and KIA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

  • RUF continues to possess and employ ballistic missiles (Iskander), KABs, and Shahed/Geran-2 UAVs, indicating sustained production or external supply. RUF's ability to maintain offensive operations suggests adequate logistical support for ground forces, supplemented by significant domestic support and new internal mobilization laws, and external recruitment efforts. The Rybar video on ambushing enemy transport indicates an RUF focus on degrading UAF logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF continues to require and receive significant international support for defense, including for drone and AD capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

  • RUF: Highly effective C2 over its air/missile operations, capable of multi-layered attacks on diverse targets (Dnipro, Shakhovo, Toretskoye, Sumy, Odesa, Kolodezi, Kherson, now including passenger trains). Tactical C2 for ground operations appears effective given claimed advances and coordinated air/UAV support. Their ability to conduct and report on internal security operations and pass new legislation, as well as coordinate recruitment efforts and youth military training, indicates effective C2 over domestic FSB/law enforcement and political elements. The official extension of the "Phoenix" data verification period demonstrates a centralized, effective C2 in implementing internal control measures over digital infrastructure and information, reinforcing the state's grip. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF: Effective C2 in rapid air threat warnings, particularly concerning missiles and KABs. Effective C2 for counter-UAV operations and ground defense, as evidenced by successful fortification building and repelling multiple assaults and conducting limited counter-actions (3rd Assault Brigade, UAF SOF on Pokrovsk direction). Effective in managing the aftermath of missile strikes, including BDA and casualty reporting, and coordinating international military aid. UAF demonstrates effective C2 for training, drone maintenance, and defense procurement. UAF's diplomatic C2 remains highly effective, evidenced by continued high-level engagement, including direct addresses to foreign parliaments and meetings with US Senators. Zelenskiy / Official's prompt reporting of the meeting with US Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Chris Coons and the discussion on support and Trump's ceasefire initiative indicates strong, responsive diplomatic C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

  • Ground Forces: UAF maintains a resilient defensive posture, actively resisting RUF advances across multiple axes. The successful repelling of 10 assaults in Sumy/Kursk and 6 in Kherson demonstrates high readiness and determination on the flanks. UAF remains capable of localized counter-attacks, as suggested by the RUF claim of a UAF attempt to retake Mali Shcherbaky, and demonstrated by the 3rd Assault Brigade near Ridkodub and Ghost of Khortytsia drone operations. UAF Special Operations Forces demonstrated effective counter-assault tactics on Pokrovsk direction, destroying a RUF assault group. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Air Defense: UAF AD is on high alert, actively tracking and responding to missile, KAB, and UAV threats to major cities, critical infrastructure, and military targets. The challenge remains significant given the volume and type (ballistic, KAB) of deeper strikes. UAF Air Force is actively detecting RUF reconnaissance UAVs and tactical aviation, including on the southeastern direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Defense Industry & Procurement: Netherlands' pledge of 600,000 drones and 100 anti-UAV radars is a significant boost, indicating continued focus on asymmetric capabilities and counter-UAV measures. Germany's approval of an €8.3 billion military aid budget is a major strategic commitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Internal Security: SBU continues to thwart assassination attempts and counter hostile activities, successfully jailing an FSB agent in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Welfare/Personnel: Meetings with families of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" at the Coordination Staff highlight ongoing efforts to address personnel welfare and maintain morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

  • Successes:
    • Strategic Military Aid: Netherlands' commitment to fund 600,000 drones and supply 100 anti-UAV radars is a major strategic success for UAF's long-term capabilities and asymmetrical warfare. Germany's approval of €8.3 billion in military aid is a significant financial commitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • UAF Defensive Resilience: UAF successfully repelled 10 RUF assaults in Sumy/Kursk and 6 in Kherson, indicating robust defensive posture and effective combat operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Localized Counter-Actions: The 3rd Assault Brigade successfully pushing occupiers out near Ridkodub (Lyman direction) and Ghost of Khortytsia drone operations in Slobozhanshchyna showcase UAF's ability to conduct localized offensive actions and effective drone warfare. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing RUF KIA from UAF drone strike. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС also reports UAF Special Operations Forces destroyed a Russian assault group on the Pokrovsk direction, which included drone footage of the combat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Fortification Building: UAF engineer units are actively engaged in building fortifications, including anti-drone tunnels for logistics, strengthening defensive positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Deep Strike Capability (Retained & Expanded): RUF reports of intercepting 34 Ukrainian UAVs (including 18 in three hours), and UAF claims of hitting 8 RUF oil depots, confirm UAF's continued capability to conduct deep strikes into Russian territory, directly impacting RUF logistics. РБК-Україна reports RUF has dropped almost 100 bombs on its own and occupied territories since the beginning of the year, indicative of RUF munitions issues that benefit UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Diplomatic Engagement: Zelenskyy's address at the NATO Defence Industry Forum in Netherlands, and his meeting with US Congress Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Chris Coons discussing support and Trump's ceasefire initiative, signal continued high-level engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ reports Russia has launched 28,743 Shahed drones at Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion, with 2,736 in June, according to Zelenskyy. This highlights UAF's intelligence and reporting capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Setbacks:
    • Escalating Civilian Casualties/Infrastructure Damage: RUF ballistic missile strikes caused significant casualties (now 15 dead, 174 wounded) and extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Dnipro, including schools, kindergartens, residences, a music school, and a passenger train. A strike also occurred on a lyceum in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi (Odesa Oblast). This is a severe humanitarian setback. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports, updated figures).
    • Alleged Positional Setbacks: RUF claims "liberation" of Dyleyevka, Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast) and Petrovske/Hrekivka (Luhansk Oblast). Kotsnews also reports on RUF "advance" in Sumy Oblast. Rybar reports "successes near Konstantinovka." Basurin claims RUF "confidently advancing on Krasnolimansk direction." These claims require urgent verification but, if confirmed, would constitute significant tactical setbacks, particularly for logistics towards Konstantinovka. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claims).
    • Strikes on RUF Military Targets (RUF Claim): RUF claims successful FPV drone strikes on a UAF dugout by Caspian Flotilla and the 36th Motor Rifle Brigade stopping UAF in Yalta and engaging. RUF "Rubikon" drones claimed destruction of an ammunition depot and an artillery piece/truck in Kolodezi/Kherson direction. RUF also claims destruction of a UAF UAV control point in Kharkiv Oblast and an Abrams tank in Sumy Oblast. If confirmed, this would be a localized degradation of UAF capabilities. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

  • Continued critical need for advanced AD systems to counter ballistic missile and KAB threats, especially for urban centers, critical infrastructure (including railways and energy), and UAF training/force generation facilities. The pledged 600,000 drones and 100 radars and Germany's aid are highly positive but require rapid delivery and integration. Continuous supply chain and training are essential for these systems and FPV drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF also needs continued international political support to counter RUF's escalating disinformation campaigns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

  • Russian:
    • Frontline Glorification/Claims: RUF channels aggressively disseminate claims of "liberating" Dyleyevka, Perebudova and Petrovske/Hrekivka, and "successes near Konstantinovka," and "confidently advancing on Krasnolimansk direction" showcasing military prowess and territorial gains. The "buffer zone" claim in Sumy/Kharkiv, amplified by Kotsnews' "advance" report and KAB strikes, aims to project offensive capability in the north. WarGonzo displays destroyed residential areas, blaming UAF, and shares drone strike video on a wooded area (Zaporizhzhia). MoD Russia explicitly states MLRS operation in Kharkiv to create buffer zone. Рыбарь shares video message captioned "Organization and conduct of an ambush on enemy transport." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Domestic Justification/Internal Security: RUF channels continue to amplify domestic incidents and internal security operations for internal political messaging, framing them as a focus on internal security and law enforcement, and attributing blame to Ukraine. New laws and social benefits, along with recruitment campaigns, are being promoted to project state control and support for the war effort. Mash na Donbasse's report on the extension of "Phoenix" data verification until November 1st, officially, suggests a continued administrative effort to bolster internal control and information oversight related to the conflict and potentially to increase surveillance. Два майора promotes "Radio Sputnik" as a source for clear information, highlighting an active effort to disseminate state-controlled narratives to the domestic audience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Victim Blaming/Mockery: RUF channels continue to mock the devastation caused by RUF strikes and explicitly call for the destruction of Ukrainian cities, normalizing war crimes and genocidal rhetoric. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Ukrainian:
    • Situational Awareness/Transparency: UAF official channels continue to provide timely updates on air threats, missile/UAV/KAB strikes, and their devastating consequences, demonstrating transparency regarding RUF attacks on civilians and infrastructure (Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa). This includes updated casualty figures for Dnipro (15 dead, 174 wounded) and video of a damaged passenger train. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Highlighting Domestic Support/Capability: Ukrainian channels showcase popular support, international backing, and UAF's adaptive capabilities. Zelenskiy / Official's prompt reporting of his meeting with US Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Chris Coons, discussing support and Trump's ceasefire initiative, highlights transparent diplomatic engagement and efforts to maintain international dialogue. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights the sheer volume of Shahed drones launched by Russia (28,743 since full-scale invasion, 2,736 in June) as reported by Zelenskyy, to illustrate the scale of the threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

  • Ukrainian: Civilian population continues to face extremely high stress due to persistent ballistic missile threats and devastating impacts in urban centers (Dnipro, with 15 dead and 174 wounded; Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, with strike on a lyceum; and now passenger train damage). The extensive damage to civilian infrastructure will further heighten public anger and resolve against RUF, and potentially increase calls for more robust air defense. News of significant international procurement efforts and continued fortification building will provide a morale boost, demonstrating resilience and continued international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Russian: Domestic audiences are being saturated with claims of tactical successes and a controlled narrative of internal stability and robust military support. The continued focus on internal security incidents and new laws serves to reinforce state control and justify actions. The extension of the "Phoenix" data verification period could be framed internally as a measure to protect citizens or enhance national security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

  • US Political Figures: Both RUF and UAF channels are actively monitoring and reporting on Donald Trump's statements regarding the Israel-Iran conflict, and Trump's potential meeting with Zelenskyy (confirmed by White House), underscoring the perceived impact of US political figures on the broader geopolitical landscape relevant to the conflict. Zelenskiy / Official's meeting with US Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Chris Coons, where Trump's ceasefire initiative was discussed, indicates an open diplomatic channel and a willingness to engage on all proposals while maintaining Ukraine's sovereignty. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Netherlands Aid: Netherlands' commitment to fund 600,000 drones and provide 100 anti-UAV radars is a significant boost to UAF capabilities and demonstrates continued, practical international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • German Aid: Germany's government approving an €8.3 billion military aid budget for Ukraine this year is a substantial commitment to long-term support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

  • Consolidated Offensive on Donetsk Axis with Intensified Ballistic Missile/UAV/KAB Strikes on Urban Centers and Force Generation Targets; Continued Northern Probing with Localized Incursions and Increased Internal Control Measures; Amplified Hybrid Warfare with Dehumanizing Rhetoric and Global Event Exploitation: RUF will likely continue high-intensity ground assaults on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka), aiming to consolidate claimed gains (Dyleyevka, Perebudova, Petrovske/Hrekivka, "successes near Konstantinovka," Krasnolimansk direction) and exploit perceived UAF logistical vulnerabilities, supported by heavy air and artillery strikes, with increasing use of precision FPV drones against UAF logistics and artillery, including UAF UAV control points and claimed Abrams destruction. Concurrently, RUF will conduct intensified ballistic missile (e.g., Iskander), KAB (Sumy, Zaporizhzhia), and Shahed/Geran-2 UAV strikes on major Ukrainian urban centers (Dnipro, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa) and increasingly target UAF force generation facilities (training centers, temporary deployment areas) and critical infrastructure (railways, energy facilities, including passenger trains) to degrade Ukraine's long-term combat power and inflict maximum civilian casualties and psychological impact. In Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, RUF will likely maintain or increase reconnaissance UAV activity and probing ground assaults (as evidenced by 10 repelled assaults), potentially conducting localized ground incursions or "buffer zone" expansion efforts in specific border communities, possibly backed by artillery and KABs (Sumy), aiming to tie down UAF forces and create humanitarian crises. RUF will implement and enforce new internal control measures (military registration fines, police powers, stateless persons in military, national messenger, asset blocking, film censorship, "foreign agent" laws, Russian language law, parental consent for bank accounts, utility payment deadline, federal budget changes, and the extension of "Phoenix" data verification) to bolster internal stability and facilitate future mobilization and recruitment. RUF will maintain its aggressive, multi-faceted internal IO campaign, focusing on justifying internal security measures and showcasing domestic support for the war, while also increasingly engaging in hybrid warfare by fabricating events and spreading disinformation globally to distract from the conflict in Ukraine and sow discord among international partners. This will include continued, explicit dehumanizing rhetoric against Ukrainian leadership and military. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

  • Coordinated Breakthrough on Donetsk/Luhansk Axes Paired with a Major Ground Offensive from Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts, Under Cover of a Nationwide Ballistic Missile Saturation Campaign and False-Flag Operations, and Escalated Information Warfare: RUF will launch a highly coordinated, multi-wave ballistic missile (Iskander) and KAB saturation attack on critical UAF military and government command nodes, major urban centers, and key infrastructure across Ukraine (Kyiv, Dnipro, Poltava, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa), specifically targeting railway hubs and energy infrastructure, designed to overwhelm UAF AD and cause significant disruption and panic, leveraging the experience from the Dnipro strikes. Simultaneously, RUF will launch a major ground offensive aimed at achieving an operational breakthrough on the Donetsk and/or Luhansk axes, leveraging heavy air support and exploiting any UAF repositioning, with the objective of reaching key operational lines (e.g., Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration). Critically, this would be complemented by a major ground offensive launched from Sumy Oblast and/or Kharkiv Oblast, aimed at seizing significant territory, creating a deep "buffer zone," or reaching key objectives, forcing Ukraine to commit substantial reserves to a new northern front, potentially diverting forces from critical eastern sectors. This entire operation would be conducted under the cover of a significantly escalated RUF internal IO campaign emphasizing the need for decisive action against "terrorists" and "abductors" from Ukraine, potentially accompanied by false-flag operations (e.g., attacks on border communities, critical infrastructure in RF) attributed to Ukraine or "Western provocateurs" to further justify the intensified war effort, mobilize domestic support, and manipulate international response. The IO campaign will escalate its dehumanization and incitement to violence, potentially leading to increased targeted assassinations or overt threats. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

  • Immediate (Next 0-6 hours, starting from 241500Z JUN 25):
    • RUF: Expect continued RUF ballistic missile/KAB/UAV threats/strikes in central, eastern, and southern Ukraine, with a focus on urban centers and potential military targets. RUF will continue to disseminate claims of tactical gains in Donetsk/Luhansk Oblast (including "successes near Konstantinovka," Krasnolimansk direction) and use its IO to amplify domestic security narratives and mock Ukrainian casualties, and exploit international events (Israel-Iran conflict, NATO summit, Serbia arms exports). Continued reconnaissance UAV activity and probing ground assaults, potentially localized ground "advances," and KAB strikes in Sumy and Kursk Oblasts. Increased focus on domestic messaging related to new laws, social benefits, and recruitment, and the implications of the extension of "Phoenix" data verification. RUF will continue to publicize successes like the Rybar video on ambushing enemy transport.
    • UAF Decision Point: Maintain highest AD readiness across all threatened oblasts, prioritizing interception of ballistic missiles and KABs. Immediately verify RUF claims regarding Dyleyevka, Perebudova and Petrovske/Hrekivka, and "successes near Konstantinovka," Krasnolimansk direction and assess the security of the surrounding defensive lines and logistical routes. Investigate confirmed RUF ground activity and new map/claims of "advance" in Sumy "buffer zone" urgently. Proactively monitor RUF IO channels for any new escalatory narratives or shifts in focus on domestic security and geopolitical events (e.g., Israel-Iran, NATO, Serbia). Continue to highlight RUF's deliberate civilian targeting and war crimes, especially the escalating casualties in Dnipro and the railway infrastructure strike. Continue high-level diplomatic engagement (e.g., with US Senators) to secure ongoing support.
  • Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
    • RUF: RUF will likely maintain or increase ballistic missile/KAB/UAV strikes on Ukrainian urban centers and critically assess damage to claimed military-industrial/force generation/logistical targets. Ground pressure on the Donetsk/Luhansk axes will likely continue, potentially with increased special forces activity and attempts to exploit any UAF vulnerabilities. Increased localized ground activity and/or shaping operations should be expected in specific border areas of Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, following continued reconnaissance UAV activity, KAB strikes, and "buffer zone" claims, aiming to tie down UAF forces or conduct limited incursions. RUF will maintain a dual-track IO strategy, attempting to keep international attention on other crises while escalating narratives justifying its war in Ukraine and implementing new internal regulations and expanding recruitment efforts, including for military-patriotic youth programs, and the continued implementation of data control measures like "Phoenix" verification.
    • UAF Decision Point: Sustain intensified AD operations and enhance force protection for civilian and critical infrastructure targets, including railways and energy facilities, and particularly for UAF training centers, temporary deployment areas, and logistics hubs. Continue to reinforce defensive lines on the Donetsk and Luhansk axes, and be prepared for continued RUF ground assaults, including attempts to cut logistical lines. Reinforce defensive posture, intelligence, and reconnaissance, particularly with EW and counter-drone systems, in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblast border communities in anticipation of increased RUF activity or incursions. Prioritize rapid integration and deployment of newly acquired FPV drones and incoming international AD/anti-UAV systems from partners like the Netherlands and Germany. Publicize UAF successes (repelled assaults, aid packages, training, RUF oil depot strikes, SBU successes, 3rd Assault Brigade actions, UAF SOF actions) and international support to counter RUF narratives and boost morale, while acknowledging the severe impact of RUF terror strikes on civilians and coordinating humanitarian relief. Continue to push for tighter sanctions enforcement against companies supplying RUF with military components.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

  1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Surge all-source ISR assets (IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT) to Dyleyevka, Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast), Petrovske/Hrekivka (Luhansk Oblast), and Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts. Immediately verify RUF claims of capture/presence, particularly the claimed "advance" in Sumy, and "successes near Konstantinovka," and "Krasnolimansk direction." Assess tactical implications, particularly regarding UAF logistical routes (Konstantinovka) and any northern incursions (including newly mapped areas).
  2. IMMEDIATE: Conduct urgent, detailed BDA on all ballistic missile strikes in Dnipro and reported RUF FPV drone strikes. Prioritize specific targets (e.g., railway lines, civilian institutions, UAF deployment areas, ammo depots) and the extent of damage to inform AD and force protection. Identify munition types (e.g., Iskander) and new RUF drone tactics. Verify RUF claim of "locomotive repair plant" strike in Dnipro and the extent of damage to the passenger train. Confirm the use of Iskander missiles in Dnipro as reported by Poddubny.
  3. HIGH: Prioritize all-source ISR (IMINT, SIGINT, EWINT) on Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Focus on the border areas to confirm RUF "buffer zone" claims or any build-up for a larger offensive, including troop concentrations and logistics, especially given KAB strikes and Kotsnews' claims of "advance." Determine precise intent behind persistent RUF reconnaissance UAV activity and ground probing.
  4. HIGH: Conduct detailed SIGINT and HUMINT on RUF communication lines and troop movements on the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Sumy/Kharkiv axes, specifically to identify any further attempts to cross rivers, establish new bridgeheads, or intensify special forces operations or larger ground movements.
  5. HIGH: Monitor RUF and pro-RUF IO channels for any further shifts in narrative regarding domestic security and "pro-Ukrainian" activities in RF territory, as this indicates RUF's strategic intent to justify internal actions and frame the conflict. Pay close attention to mockery of civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, the amplification of geopolitical narratives, and explicit dehumanizing rhetoric. Track RUF recruitment efforts and the implications of the extension of "Phoenix" data verification until November 1st for internal control.
  6. HIGH: Verify the specific targets and BDA of the "Rubikon" BLA strikes reported by RUF in Donetsk/Kherson directions, specifically the claimed ammunition depot and the truck/artillery piece. Also verify the RUF claim of destroying a UAF UAV control point in Kharkiv Oblast and the claim of Abrams destruction by Lancet in Sumy Oblast.
  7. HIGH: Assess the impact of RUF dropping nearly 100 bombs on its own and occupied territories since the start of the year. This data provides critical insight into RUF munitions control and accuracy, and potential internal issues.
  8. MEDIUM: Obtain more information on the reported missile strike on the "Espanyola" marine base in Crimea. Determine if they are results of UAF strikes, internal sabotage, or accidents, to inform future planning. Also, thoroughly assess Rybar's report on UAF activation in Black Sea/Crimea area, and the specific details of "Organization and conduct of an ambush on enemy transport" video.

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

  1. URGENT: Maintain highest AD readiness across Kyiv, Dnipro, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Poltava, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, and Odesa Oblast. Prioritize assets capable of intercepting ballistic missiles (e.g., Iskander) and counter-UAV systems, given the recent surge in attacks and confirmed high civilian casualties, and demonstrated strikes on passenger trains. Ensure rapid re-engagement capabilities and saturation defense.
  2. HIGH: Review and enhance force protection measures for all critical infrastructure, especially railway hubs and lines, energy facilities, military training facilities, temporary deployment areas, schools, and hospitals in central and eastern Ukraine, given the direct hits on civilian infrastructure and a train, and UAF facilities. Disperse valuable assets and explore hardening measures, including anti-drone tunnels for logistics routes.
  3. CRITICAL: Accelerate the delivery and integration of the 600,000 drones and 100 anti-UAV radars pledged by the Netherlands, and leverage the €8.3 billion from Germany for AD and other critical needs. Prioritize training personnel on these new systems.

6.3. Ground Forces:

  1. IMMEDIATE: Confirm or deny RUF claims of Dyleyevka, Perebudova and Petrovske/Hrekivka capture, and "successes near Konstantinovka," and "Krasnolimansk direction." If confirmed, immediately reinforce defensive positions in those sectors and establish counter-attack plans, particularly focusing on protecting logistics routes to Konstantinovka.
  2. URGENT: Continue to reinforce defensive positions on the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia axes, specifically focusing on preventing further RUF breakthroughs and consolidating existing lines. Be prepared for increased special forces activity targeting logistics.
  3. URGENT: Elevate readiness and reinforce defensive lines and fortifications in specific border areas of Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts (including near any claimed "buffer zones"). Be prepared for intensified RUF ground activity or a limited new offensive, following the increased reconnaissance UAV activity, KAB strikes, and RUF claims/assaults. Prioritize defensive engineering efforts shown by 23rd Engineer Regiment and anti-drone tunnel construction in Zaporizhzhia, and continue basic military training. Support localized counter-actions as demonstrated by 3rd Assault Brigade, Ghost of Khortytsia drone operations, and UAF SOF actions on Pokrovsk direction.
  4. HIGH: Continue accelerating training programs and recruitment efforts for drone units and EW teams, emphasizing their critical role in both ISR and offensive/defensive operations. Leverage newly acquired FPV drones effectively and prioritize drone repair capabilities.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

  1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Issue rapid, verifiable counter-narratives to RUF claims of Dyleyevka, Perebudova, Petrovske/Hrekivka, Sumy/Kharkiv "buffer zone" capture/presence, "successes near Konstantinovka," "Krasnolimansk direction" or attempting to recapture Mali Shcherbaky. Provide transparent, evidence-based updates on UAF defensive operations, highlighting repelled assaults and fortification building, and showcasing successful localized counter-actions.
  2. URGENT: Launch a globally coordinated IO campaign to highlight Russia's deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure, including schools, hospitals, railways (passenger train), and energy facilities, and the escalating number of civilian casualties, particularly children. Expose RUF's continuous war crimes and its blatant disregard for international humanitarian law, particularly the "mockery" from RUF channels of civilian suffering. Use the Dnipro casualty figures (15 dead, 174 wounded) and Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi strike to underscore the brutality.
  3. HIGH: Publicize UAF successes in drone procurement (Netherlands aid, German aid) and fortification building, and drone repair capabilities, as well as ongoing military training. Emphasize Ukraine's resilience, innovation, and growing self-sufficiency in defense, while also acknowledging the vital role of international support. Publicize successful UAF deep strikes on RUF territory (e.g., oil depots) and RUF KIA. Highlight SBU counter-intelligence successes (FSB agent jailing).
  4. HIGH: Counter RUF narratives that attempt to demoralize Ukrainian population or frame the conflict as an inevitable defeat. Reiterate Ukraine's principled stand for peace based on territorial integrity and sovereignty.
  5. HIGH: Collaborate with international partners to fact-check and expose RUF's internal propaganda related to domestic security and "pro-Ukrainian" threats, demonstrating their use of these narratives to justify repression and sustained aggression. Proactively address RUF attempts to link Ukraine to broader geopolitical crises and their claims of "failed isolation." Highlight the significance of RUF KIA data from channels like БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС to counter RUF's narrative of minimal losses.
  6. HIGH: Continue active diplomatic engagement at international forums to secure comprehensive support, including advanced AD systems and long-range capabilities, while managing expectations regarding specific membership timelines. Leverage Zelenskyy's address at the Defence Industry Forum to push for increased funding for Ukrainian defense production and to press NATO companies to cease supplying components to RUF. Maintain open communication with US political figures, including on sensitive topics like ceasefire initiatives, as demonstrated by the meeting with Senators Shaheen and Coons.

END OF REPORT

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