Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 241407Z JUN 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Donetsk Oblast: RUF MoD and 37th Motor Rifle Brigade (RUF) continue to claim the "liberation" of Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast). RUF sources also persist in claiming control over Dyleyevka, describing it as a "powerful fortified area" on the approaches to Konstantinovka, allowing "fire control" over UAF logistics. The UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) continues to report active clashes near Dyliyivka (Toretsk direction) and Pokrovsk direction (Promin, Novotoretske, Myrolubivka, Lysivka, Novoukrayinka, Novoserhiyivka, Udachne, Myrnohrad, Oleksiyivka, Popiv Yar, Malynivka, Koptyevye and towards Shakhove, Volodymyrivka, Molodetske, Serhiyivka, Novopavlivka), confirming active combat in these claimed areas. TASS reports RUF BLA "Rubikon" destroyed a UAF ammunition depot near Kolodezi (DNR), a location also mentioned in previous UAF reports of clashes in the Lyman direction. Рыбарь (Rybar) now indicates RUF successes near Konstantinovka, further emphasizing this critical axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on Perebudova, Dyleyevka; UAF confirms active combat; LOW CONFIDENCE – independent verification of RUF control over these settlements and the tactical implications for Konstantinovka; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claim of ammunition depot destruction; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Rybar's claim, requires verification).
• Luhansk Oblast: RUF sources continue to claim the "liberation" of Petrovske (Hrekivka), asserting that "LNR is completely liberated." The UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports clashes yesterday near Tverdokhlibove, Ridkodub, Karpivka, Kolodyazi and towards Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyny, Novyi Myr, Olhivka (Lyman direction), indicating active combat in the broader area of Hrekivka/Petrovske. Оперативний ЗСУ (Operational ZSU) reports the 3rd Assault Brigade is pushing occupiers out near Ridkodub. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on Petrovske/Hrekivka, UAF confirms active combat; LOW CONFIDENCE – verification of RUF control over Petrovske/Hrekivka; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report of counter-action).
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): RUF launched ballistic missiles against Dnipro city. Updated reports from UAF official sources (Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), РБК-Україна, Zelenskiy / Official, Север.Реалии, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, STERNENKO) confirm an increase in casualties: 11 dead and over 160 wounded. RUF sources (Операция Z) claim a "powerful strike" was made against a "locomotive repair plant in Dnipropetrovsk," framing it as a strike on UAF logistics. Zelenskiy / Official also shared video of a damaged passenger train, indicating a direct hit on railway infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF/Independent sources on impacts and casualties; HIGH CONFIDENCE – Civilian targeting; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claim on specific military target within Dnipro, requires BDA).
• Sumy Oblast: The UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) explicitly reports UAF forces repelled 10 RUF assaults yesterday in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, confirming active combat and persistent RUF pressure in the border region. A new map from Z комитет + карта СВО on the Sumy direction (June 13-23, 2025) highlights territorial changes. STERNENKO shared video of defensive positions in Sumy region. Kotsnews reports on "the first report on the advance of the Russian Armed Forces in Sumy Oblast." Air Force of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. TASS reports RUF security forces detained UAF soldiers in civilian clothes on the Sumy-Kursk border. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports a destroyed Abrams tank in Sumy Oblast due to Lancet. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF repelled assaults in Sumy/Kursk; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claim of "buffer zone" in Sumy, active combat confirmed; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF defensive preparations in Sumy, RUF KAB strikes in Sumy; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim of UAF detention, unverified; LOW CONFIDENCE - Abrams destruction claim, unverified).
• Kharkiv Oblast: UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Ozerne, Mala Vovcha of Kharkiv region. Clashes yesterday near Dvorichna, Hlyboke, Vovchanski Khutory, Krasne Pershe and Fyholivka (South Slobozhansky direction) and near Kindrashivka, Kruhlyakivka and towards Pischane, Petropavlivka (Kupyansk direction). MoD Russia published video of Grad MLRS strike near the border in Kharkiv region. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shared photos captioned "Kharkiv direction," potentially showing RUF forces. Привид Хортиці (Ghost of Khortytsia) shared video of UAF drone operations targeting enemy positions and a boat in Slobozhanshchyna, demonstrating UAF counter-action capabilities. Colonelcassad shared video claiming destruction of an enemy UAV control point in Kharkiv Oblast (likely a UAF asset). (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports on RUF airstrikes and clashes; HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF MLRS activity in Kharkiv; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF drone operations in Kharkiv; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim of UAV control point destruction).
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Novoselivka, Mala Tokmachka of Zaporizhzhia region. UAF Air Force reports activity of RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration is scaling up protection for Defense Forces by constructing new anti-drone tunnels for logistics routes. Air Force of Ukraine reports missile danger and KAB launches in Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports).
• Kyiv Oblast: Office of the Prosecutor General (Офіс Генерального прокурора) reports three RUF military personnel have been notified of suspicion for shooting a car and cruel treatment of civilians in Kyiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official report).
• Kherson Oblast: UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 6 Russian army assaults in the Kherson direction. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports a Kherson resident faces up to 12 years for storing explosives. "Два майора" shared video of FPV drone and UAV-KT combat work by 127th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade in Kherson direction, showing a struck truck and artillery piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official report; HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal security report; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF combat footage, unverified BDA by UAF).
• Odesa Oblast: STERNENKO reports that Vasya Lomachenko is upset due to the Russian strike on a lyceum in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF reporting on strike).
• Other Axes (UAF General Staff Reports):
  • Siversk direction: Clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka.
  • Kramatorsk direction: Clashes yesterday near Novomarkove, Chasiv Yar and towards Mykolayivka, Stupochok, Pryvillya, Bondarne.
  • Novopavlivka direction: Clashes yesterday near Bahatyr, Novosilka, Zaporizhzhya, Perebudova, Komar, Myrne, Shevchenko, Vilne Pole and towards Voskresenka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports).
• RF Territory (Various Regions): ASTRA and RUF MoD via TASS claimed Russian air defense forces destroyed 34 Ukrainian UAVs over various regions of Russia, with TASS specifically claiming 18 UAVs shot down in three hours. Igor Artamonov (Governor, Lipetsk Oblast) reports a UAV threat in Usmansky and Dobrinsky districts. Оперативний ЗСУ shared photos claiming 8 RUF oil depots after drone attacks by UAV forces. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows video of a RUF soldier killed by UAF drone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims, RUF internal reporting on UAV threats; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF claims on oil depot strikes; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF combat footage). Bytusov Plus reports on "Meet the heroes, Russia!", referring to RUF KIA/POW from Tyumen Military Engineering Command School with deaths in Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Kharkiv, Kursk, Belgorod, and Syria, indicating significant RUF losses across multiple fronts. ASTRA reports a serviceman from Krasnodar Krai is being investigated for alleged rape in Bashkortostan. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники also reports on this rape in Bashkortostan by a convicted serviceman. TASS reports temporary restrictions in Kazan and Nizhnekamsk airports, indicating potential UAV activity or AD response in these areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting).
• RF Territory (Crimea): Два майора previously posted videos of a building collapse and a building engulfed in flames, captioned "Crimea." Today, Два майора claimed a missile strike against a base of the Marine Special Purpose Detachment "Espanyola" overnight, stating personnel had evacuated and no one was injured. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF internal reporting, unclear cause of previous damage; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim of missile strike on base).
• RF Territory (Northern Grouping): TASS reports a Caspian Flotilla FPV drone "Antonov" destroyed a UAF dugout with personnel in the area of responsibility of the "North" grouping, implying activity near the northern border of Ukraine. MoD Russia shares video of this Antonov FPV drone strike. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claim with video, unverified by UAF).
• RF Internal Affairs: TASS reports that the State Duma adopted a law on fines up to 20,000 rubles for failing to report relocation to a military enlistment office. Another law increases the fine up to 10,000 rubles for refusal to stop a car at the request of police. The State Duma also expanded the rights of the State Traffic Safety Inspectorate (ГИБДД) to annul driver's licenses for medical contraindications. Putin supported the idea of allowing participants of the "special operation" to receive a second secondary specialized education for free. The State Duma also adopted a bill allowing stateless persons to serve by contract in the RF Armed Forces. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА published a recruitment video for the "African Corps" for both men (with/without combat experience) and women medics. Colonelcassad shared video "Collection for 200 motorcycles" showing new dirt bikes, potentially for military use. TASS/ASTRA reports Putin signed a law on creating a digital service that includes a national messenger. Colonelcassad reports on new decrees entering into force today. TASS reports Putin signed a law on blocking financial assets and property of individuals and organizations suspected of involvement in sabotage. "Север.Реалии" reports that Gorodskie Elektroseti in Yugra announced a tender to find volunteers for the war in Ukraine. TASS reports the State Duma adopted a bill on refusing to issue rolling certificates for films that discredit Russian spiritual and moral values. TASS reports on the health of a child previously injured in Sheremetyevo. ASTRA reports the fine for failing to notify military enlistment office about relocation was raised from 5,000 to 20,000 rubles. TASS reports Putin signed a law on fines for "foreign agents" for non-compliance with Ministry of Justice requirements, and a law on protecting the Russian language, including mandates for signs/labels to be in Russian only. TASS reports Putin signed a law preventing teenagers from opening bank accounts without parental consent. ASTRA reports "SVO" participants won a lawsuit against a journalist for 25,000 rubles over video publication. Операция Z claims Ukrainian commanders are involved in kidnapping civilians in Kursk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting on legislation and social policies, recruitment efforts, new digital laws, and internal security measures, including increased penalties for military registration non-compliance and "foreign agent" laws; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim of UAF kidnapping in Kursk).
• International Developments (RUF Internal Framing): TASS, ASTRA, Военкор Котенок, Операция Z, WarGonzo, and Colonelcassad are reporting on Israel's alleged attack on Iran (Babol and Babolsar, radar station north of Tehran), framing it as Israel attacking Iran and linking it to Trump's statements. Операция Z reports Qatar condemned Iran's strike on a US base but called for peace. Colonelcassad reports all participants in the Middle East war declared victory. Alex Parker Returns reports Iran celebrating victory against Israel. TASS reports Iran will observe ceasefire if Israel does not violate it. ТАСС reports Trump hopes to make a deal with Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF reporting on international events). Военкор Котенок references the two-year anniversary of the Wagner mutiny, indicating continued internal processing of this event. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal commentary). ТАСС reports five NATO countries are ready to mine areas along borders with RF. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Bloomberg stating NATO is on the verge of collapse. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF/Pro-RUF framing of international events).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

• Air Force of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Sumy, indicating suitable weather for tactical aviation. AV БогомаZ (Bryansk) reports thunderstorms and wind gusts 15-20 m/s for June 25, which could affect drone operations in that border region. Air Force of Ukraine also reports KAB launches in Zaporizhzhia. Colonelcassad's animated strike map shows widespread missile/drone activity across Ukraine for 23-24 JUN, indicating suitable conditions for air operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF):
  • Ground Forces: UAF maintains active defensive operations across multiple axes, repelling assaults in Sumy/Kursk, Kherson, and engaging in clashes in Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka directions. UAF 23rd Engineer-Positioning Regiment (✙DeepState✙🇺🇦) showed footage of building fortifications (IFS), indicating continued defensive preparations. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration is actively constructing anti-drone tunnels to protect logistics. OTU "Kharkiv" posted video of 42nd Mechanized Brigade training. 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade (DShV) showed a drone repair workshop. UAF continues attempts to regain territory, as suggested by the RUF report of UAF attempting to retake Mali Shcherbaky. UAF General Staff reports 1,000 military personnel have begun training in defense procurement via the Army+ course, indicating efforts to professionalize and streamline procurement. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" highlights a young Ukrainian soldier at 18, who joined infantry, now training as a drone operator, emphasizing morale and early enlistment. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the 3rd Assault Brigade is actively pushing occupiers out near Ridkodub (Lyman direction). Привид Хортиці (Ghost of Khortytsia) showcases UAF drone operations in Slobozhanshchyna (Kharkiv/Sumy), destroying enemy positions and a boat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Air Defense (AD): UAF Air Force continues to provide real-time warnings of RUF missile and KAB threats (Sumy, Donetsk Oblast, Zaporizhzhia). UAF AD is engaged in intercepting RUF attacks, but the volume of RUF strikes continues to cause significant civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, particularly from ballistic missiles (Dnipro, Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports active RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and tactical aviation activity on the northeast direction. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posted video of two F-16 fighters over a Ukrainian city in the evening sky, likely for morale boosting and displaying capabilities. STERNENKO reports the 1039th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment shot down a thermal imager Lancet UAV overnight, demonstrating successful counter-drone capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Deep Strike Capability: UAF continues to conduct drone strikes deep into RF territory, as evidenced by RUF claims of intercepting 34 UAVs and the drone video from Воин DV, and UAF claims of hitting 8 oil depots. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows UAF drone operations resulting in RUF KIA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Information Operations (IO): Ukrainian channels (RBC-Ukraine, Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration, Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), Офіс Генерального прокурора, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, КіберБорошно, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦) continue to provide immediate assessments and photographic/video evidence of RUF attacks and their consequences, highlighting civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure (Dnipro, Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa), including damages to a passenger train in Dnipro. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The 46th Separate Airmobile Podolsk Brigade of the DShV of the Armed Forces of Ukraine shared a video titled "Save the drone: how masters keep the sky," highlighting UAF's repair and maintenance capabilities for drones. UAF channels are also actively monitoring and commenting on US political statements (Trump's potential meeting with Zelenskyy) and international events (Israel-Iran conflict) for their implications. Zelenskyy addressed the Defence Industry Forum in Netherlands, emphasizing Ukraine's drone production capacity (8M drones/year, but underfunded) and the need for funding. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports Zelenskyy's call for NATO countries to ensure their companies do not supply components for Russian missiles and equipment. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on a mini-summit for Zelenskyy at NATO with leaders from France, Germany, Poland, Italy, UK, and NATO SecGen, highlighting ongoing high-level diplomatic efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Staff for POW Affairs) held a meeting with families of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura", indicating continued focus on POW welfare. Оперативний ЗСУ also reports SBU successfully jailed an FSB agent from a "female group" in Donetsk Oblast for 15 years, highlighting counter-intelligence successes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zelenskyy / Official shares videos and photos of his meeting with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte in The Hague, showing diplomatic engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Russian Forces (RUF):
  • Ground Operations: RUF MoD claims "liberation" of Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast). RUF continues to claim "mopping up" Dyleyevka (Donetsk Oblast) and "complete liberation" of Petrovske/Hrekivka (Luhansk Oblast). Kotsnews reports on RUF advance in Sumy. UAF General Staff confirms active clashes in these areas, indicating RUF intent to advance and consolidate. Persistent RUF assaults continue in Sumy/Kursk and Kherson directions. TASS claims UAF are fleeing Yalta on the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and claims UAF attempted to retake Mali Shcherbaky. WarGonzo shows aerial footage of destroyed residential areas, claiming "Somalis demolish houses with AFU members inside," indicating continued destructive operations against UAF positions. MoD Russia shows Grad MLRS strike in Kharkiv as part of "buffer zone" creation. Colonelcassad shows "collection for 200 motorcycles" likely for military support. Воин DV claims 36th Motor Rifle Brigade stopped UAF attempt to fortify in northern Yalta houses and engaged them. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" continues to promote activity of "Vostok Group of Forces" and 37th Motorised Rifle Brigade. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims and UAF confirmation of active combat). "Два майора" posts drone footage of operations in Pokrovsk direction showing explosions and military personnel. Colonelcassad posted video "Donbas. Rubicon is working" showing drone footage targeting civilian vehicles, military hardware (artillery piece), and manpower, with "Judgment Day" and "defending the Motherland" rhetoric. Воин DV shared video showing drone footage targeting a UAF truck and camouflaged shelter in the Southern Donetsk direction, with a claimed explosion. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts video of RUF thermal imagery showing UAF personnel losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF propaganda/combat footage).
  • Artillery/Air Strikes: RUF employed ballistic missiles (claimed 4 Iskanders) on Dnipro, causing significant civilian infrastructure damage and casualties (now 11 dead, over 160 wounded), including a passenger train. RUF aviation continues airstrikes in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia (KABs), Sumy (KABs), and Odesa Oblasts. RUF FPV drone "Antonov" is used for precision strikes (claimed dugout destruction in Sever Group of Forces AOR, with video from MoD Russia). MoD Russia shows Grad MLRS activity in Kharkiv. TASS reports destruction of UAF ammunition depot near Kolodezi by BLA "Rubikon." "Два майора" shows combat work of 127th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade FPV drones in Kherson direction, striking a truck and artillery. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА claims Abrams destroyed by Lancet in Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad provides an animated map of RUF strikes on Ukraine, 23-24 JUN. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF reports on strikes, RUF claims on specific targets/munition types; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Civilian targeting; LOW CONFIDENCE - Abrams destruction claim, unverified). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (Paratrooper's Diary) provides an unverified summary of RUF strikes on enemy territory. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF summary, lacks specifics).
  • Logistics/Equipment: RUF continues to possess and employ advanced missile and UAV systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared a video of a destroyed armored fighting vehicle, identified as a US M2 Bradley BMP, likely for propaganda purposes. The procurement of 200 motorcycles for "military support" indicates continued efforts to enhance mobility/logistics for specific units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF propaganda/logistics). "Два майора" shares an image of a Belgian mobile application for military equipment recognition, indicating RUF interest in Western tech and reconnaissance capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF interest in military tech).
  • Internal Security Operations: FSB conducted operations in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, detaining individuals accused of sabotage and displaying IED components, likely for internal messaging. RUF State Duma is tightening internal controls via legislation regarding military registration and traffic violations, allowing stateless persons to serve in military, and creating a national digital service/messenger. Putin signed a law on blocking financial assets and property of persons suspected of sabotage. RUF is actively recruiting for "African Corps." ASTRA reports an investigation into a serviceman for rape. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports on a Kherson resident facing charges for storing explosives. "Север.Реалии" reports on a tender for war volunteers, indicating local-level recruitment efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Putin signed new laws: increased fines for not reporting relocation to military enlistment offices (up to 20k RUB), fines for "foreign agents" for non-compliance, a law protecting the Russian language (signs in Russian only), and requiring parental consent for teenagers' bank accounts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting on legislation). Филолог в засаде (Philologist in Ambush) relays observations on military-patriotic clubs and military training centers at universities, indicating continued youth indoctrination and preparation for military service. ASTRA reports "SVO" participants won a lawsuit against a journalist over a video. Операция Z claims UAF commanders kidnapped civilians in Kursk Oblast. Новости Москвы shares a video on Vnukovo Airport security, likely for internal morale or distraction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim of UAF kidnapping).
  • Information Operations (IO): RUF channels (TASS, Colonelcassad, Basurin, Poddubny, WarGonzo, Операция Z, MoD Russia, Два майора, Военкор Котенок, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Новости Москвы, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, Alex Parker Returns, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Z комитет + карта СВО, Kotsnews, Воин DV, «Зона СВО», Mash на Донбассе) continue to aggressively disseminate claims of tactical successes (Dyleyevka, Petrovske/Hrekivka, Sumy "buffer zone", Perebudova, Yalta, Mali Shcherbaky), amplify domestic narratives (Sheremetyevo incident, FSB arrests, new laws on military registration and traffic, national messenger, social benefits for "SVO" participants, recruitment for "African Corps", motorcycle collection, investigations into soldiers, blocking assets of saboteurs, film censorship, increased military registration fines, "foreign agent" fines, Russian language law, parental consent for bank accounts, lawsuit by SVO participants, military-patriotic youth programs, claims of UAF kidnapping in Kursk), and promote military support efforts. They continue to comment on international relations (US drone defense based on SVO experience, US WhatsApp ban, Trump's statements on Israel/Iran ceasefire, NATO summit outcomes, "failure of attempts to isolate RF," Israel-Iran conflict, Iran's victory claims, Trump hopes for deal with Russia, NATO countries mining borders, NATO "on verge of collapse"). Alex Parker Returns continues to engage in highly aggressive, dehumanizing rhetoric against Ukrainian leadership and Western media. "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" posts "tactical analysis" messages, which are likely pro-RUF propaganda. "Colonelcassad" posts imagery linking "American-Israeli aggression" to victims in Iran, and states all participants in the Middle East war declared victory. «Зона СВО» posts mocking video of UAF commander. ТАСС reports NATO "on the verge of collapse" after Trump re-election. Поддубный (Poddubny) claims EU is transforming into "aggressive military-political bloc, a NATO appendage." Kotsnews states "Zelenskyy again with outstretched hand" (begging). «Зона СВО» states Zelenskyy asked for €150 billion for arms production. Fighterbomber shows a cockpit video of a Tu-144, likely for morale/historical appeal. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Immediate and independent verification of RUF claims regarding confirmed capture of Dyleyevka, Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast) and Petrovske/Hrekivka (Luhansk Oblast). Assess tactical implications of any confirmed RUF gains in these areas, particularly regarding control over UAF logistics routes to Konstantinovka. Verify Rybar's claims of "successes near Konstantinovka." (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
• CRITICAL: Verify the extent and intent of RUF ground activity in Sumy Oblast. Kotsnews claims RUF "advance" in Sumy; coupled with KAB strikes, this indicates potential for intensified ground operations beyond just probing. Determine specific locations of RUF incursions, force size, and intent (raids, limited occupation, or shaping for larger offensive). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Conduct comprehensive BDA on all recent RUF ballistic missile, KAB, and UAV strikes, especially in Dnipro and Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi (Odesa Oblast). Verify specific targets (e.g., railway station area, schools, hospitals, residential buildings, train line) and damage assessment, and confirm munition types (e.g., Iskander, KAB variants). Specifically, verify RUF claim of "locomotive repair plant" strike in Dnipro and the extent of damage to the passenger train. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA teams, IMINT, OSINT).
• HIGH: Assess the reported RUF FPV drone "Antonov" strike against a UAF dugout and the claimed 36th Motor Rifle Brigade engagement in Yalta. Confirm target and BDA to understand RUF's evolving tactical drone usage and localized ground engagements. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT).
• HIGH: Monitor RUF internal security operations (e.g., FSB arrests in Zaporizhzhia, serviceman investigation in Bashkortostan, Kherson resident arrest, blocking assets of saboteurs, UAF soldiers in civilian clothes detention in Sumy-Kursk, claim of UAF kidnapping in Kursk Oblast) and new legislation (military registration, traffic control, stateless persons in military, national messenger, asset blocking, film censorship, "foreign agent" fines, Russian language law, parental consent for bank accounts). Analyze the intent behind publicizing such operations and laws, particularly concerning potential false-flag preparations or justifications for internal repression and mobilization. Also monitor recruitment for "African Corps" and volunteer tenders, and expansion of military-patriotic clubs and university military training centers. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Verify RUF claim of UAF attempt to retake Mali Shcherbaky (Zaporizhzhia) and the death of British mercenary Colby Dolman. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Verify the specific targets and BDA of the "Rubikon" BLA strikes reported by RUF in Donetsk/Kherson directions, specifically the claimed ammunition depot and the truck/artillery piece. Also verify the RUF claim of destroying a UAF UAV control point in Kharkiv Oblast and the claim of Abrams destruction by Lancet in Sumy Oblast. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT).
• MEDIUM: Obtain more information on the reported missile strike on the "Espanyola" marine base in Crimea. Determine the munition type, BDA, and impact on RUF capabilities. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT).
• MEDIUM: Verify the TASS claim of UAF fleeing Yalta on the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT).
• MEDIUM: Monitor RUF internal procurement/support efforts, specifically the "200 motorcycles" collection. Determine intended use and impact on RUF mobility/logistics. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, IMINT).
• LOW: Assess the significance of the Belgian mobile application for military equipment recognition reported by "Два майора" for RUF intelligence gathering. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, TECHINT).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Ground Capabilities: RUF continues to demonstrate capability for localized ground advances, particularly on the Donetsk axis, aiming to seize key UAF strongholds and logistical nodes (e.g., Dyleyevka, Perebudova near Konstantinovka). Rybar's claim of "successes near Konstantinovka" indicates continued RUF focus on this area. The UAF General Staff reports of 10 repelled assaults in Sumy/Kursk, and the Kotsnews report on RUF "advance" in Sumy, confirm persistent RUF ground pressure and capability in the north, even if no major breakthrough has occurred. RUF continues destructive operations against UAF positions, as evidenced by WarGonzo's footage and MoD Russia's MLRS strikes. New RUF footage ("Rubicon," "Два майора," Воин DV, MoD Russia) demonstrates sustained FPV drone and UAV-KT combat work, targeting UAF logistics (ammunition depots, trucks), artillery pieces, and now including claimed strikes on UAF UAV control points and dugouts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Artillery/Air Capabilities: RUF maintains a significant ballistic missile strike capability (evidenced by Dnipro strikes, claimed Iskander use) and extensive use of KABs (Sumy, Zaporizhzhia) and Shahed/Geran-2 UAVs. This capability is used for deep strikes against urban centers, civilian infrastructure (Dnipro, Odesa, now including passenger train), and increasingly, UAF force generation targets (training centers, temporary deployment areas) and logistics (ammunition depots, railways). The increased casualties in Dnipro (11 dead, over 160 wounded) highlight the continued lethal effectiveness of these strikes against civilian populations. RUF reconnaissance UAV activity remains high in critical areas like Zaporizhzhia and the northeast direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Information Warfare Capabilities: RUF's IO remains highly agile and adaptive, rapidly amplifying claims of tactical gains (Dyleyevka, Petrovske/Hrekivka, Sumy "buffer zone", Perebudova, Yalta, Mali Shcherbaky, "successes near Konstantinovka"), domestic issues (Sheremetyevo, FSB arrests, new restrictive laws including increased military registration fines and "foreign agent" laws, "African Corps" recruitment, aid collections, national messenger, social benefits for "SVO" participants, serviceman misconduct investigations, film censorship, Russian language law, parental consent for bank accounts, lawsuits against journalists, claims of UAF kidnapping), and attempting to project control by claiming "buffer zones" in Ukraine. They continue to use disinformation to justify internal crackdowns and maintain public support, and are actively shaping narratives around international events (Israel-Iran conflict, NATO summit outcomes, "failure of isolation," Trump statements, Qatar's condemnation of Iran's strike, Iran's victory claims, NATO countries mining borders, NATO "on verge of collapse"). The repeated focus on NATO's "crisis" and EU as a "NATO appendage" aims to sow disunity. Alex Parker Returns' rhetoric indicates an intent to actively dehumanize Ukrainian leadership and incite violence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Intentions: RUF intends to:
  • Sustain Offensive Pressure & Consolidate Gains: Continue high-intensity ground assaults on key axes (Donetsk, Luhansk) to achieve localized gains and attrit UAF forces, attempting to sever UAF logistics, particularly towards Konstantinovka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Degrade UAF Morale and Capabilities: Through continued terror strikes against civilian targets and military-industrial/force generation infrastructure using ballistic missiles, KABs, and UAVs. This includes targeting critical transport infrastructure like train lines, training/deployment centers, and logistics hubs. The increased casualties in Dnipro (11 dead, over 160 wounded) and the strike on Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi underscore this intent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Reinforce Domestic Support & Legitimacy: Use claims of tactical gains, internal security actions (arrests of perceived threats, new laws on military registration, stateless persons in military, national messenger, asset blocking for saboteurs, film censorship, "foreign agent" laws, Russian language law, parental consent for bank accounts, lawsuits against journalists), and publicize domestic support for the military (free education for "SVO" participants, "African Corps" recruitment, equipment collections, volunteer tenders, military-patriotic youth programs) to reinforce internal cohesion and project control. The renewed emphasis on "Kursky residents in Sumy" and new reports of "advance" in Sumy may serve to frame future actions as repatriation or protection, or an overt territorial claim, potentially fabricating claims of UAF kidnapping in Kursk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Exert Control over Border Areas: The persistent assaults and "buffer zone" claims in Sumy/Kharkiv, combined with confirmed RUF ground activity, KAB strikes, Kotsnews reporting an "advance," and TASS reporting on Russian civilians in Sumy, strongly suggest a long-term intent to establish a physical presence in northern Ukraine or at least to destabilize the border regions and tie down UAF forces. The reported detention of UAF soldiers in civilian clothes further frames this border area as a zone of active contention. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Shape International Narrative: By commenting on Israel-Iran conflict, NATO summit outcomes, and claiming "isolation attempts failed," RUF seeks to project itself as a relevant geopolitical actor, sow discord among Western partners, or divert attention from Ukraine. The continued focus on the Wagner mutiny anniversary is likely an attempt to show internal cohesion despite past instability. RUF is also actively framing NATO as "on the verge of collapse" and seeking to make a deal with Trump, and portraying EU as a NATO appendage, as well as accusing NATO countries of mining borders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Dehumanize and Incite: Channels like Alex Parker Returns and "Зона СВО" continue to push dehumanizing rhetoric and incite violence against Ukrainian leadership, indicating an intent to radicalize pro-RUF audiences and justify extreme measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• RUF: Continued high volume of ballistic missiles (claimed 4 Iskanders in Dnipro), KABs (Sumy, Zaporizhzhia), and Shahed/Geran-2 UAVs for deep strikes and shaping operations. The claimed capture of Dyleyevka, Perebudova and Petrovske/Hrekivka indicates persistent focus on expanding control in Donetsk/Luhansk Oblasts, with Rybar confirming "successes near Konstantinovka." Increased targeting of UAF training centers and temporary deployment areas indicates an adaptation to degrade UAF force generation, and now includes direct hits on passenger trains. The continued, unsuccessful ground assaults in Sumy/Kursk, despite the large force concentration reported in the previous ISR, suggest a probing or attritional strategy for now, but the intent for a "buffer zone" or larger offensive remains, now overtly stated with MLRS activity in Kharkiv and Kotsnews' claims of "advance" in Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The use of FPV drone "Antonov" by Caspian Flotilla marine infantry suggests specialized unit-level adaptation in drone warfare, confirmed by MoD Russia video. The "simulated" drone footage from Два майора indicates continued RUF focus on drone technology and tactics. New RUF footage confirms continued focus on targeting UAF logistics and artillery with precision FPV drones, and now includes claimed strikes on UAF UAV control points and Abrams destruction. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). Tightening internal regulations (military registration, traffic control, stateless persons in military, national messenger, asset blocking for saboteurs, film censorship, "foreign agent" laws, Russian language law, parental consent for bank accounts, military-patriotic clubs) and new recruitment efforts (African Corps, volunteer tenders) reflect efforts to increase societal control and expand recruitment in support of the war effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: Continues to demonstrate effective AD responses to RUF UAVs in some areas (e.g., Lancet shootdown), but struggles with the volume and type (ballistic, KAB) of deeper strikes. UAF is actively building fortifications, including anti-drone tunnels for logistics, as well as engaging in basic general military training and advanced procurement training. UAF ground forces are effectively repelling multiple RUF assaults across various axes, indicating strong defensive posture, and are conducting limited counter-actions (e.g., 3rd Assault Brigade near Ridkodub, Ghost of Khortytsia drone operations). UAF is actively repairing drones. UAF continues deep strikes on RUF territory, evidenced by reported oil depot strikes and KIA. UAF is publicly displaying F-16s, likely for morale and signaling future capabilities. SBU continues to achieve counter-intelligence successes (e.g., FSB agent arrest). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• RUF continues to possess and employ ballistic missiles (Iskander), KABs, and Shahed/Geran-2 UAVs, indicating sustained production or external supply. RUF's ability to maintain offensive operations suggests adequate logistical support for ground forces, supplemented by significant domestic support and new internal mobilization laws, and external recruitment efforts. The procurement of 200 motorcycles points to efforts to enhance mobility. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF continues to require and receive significant international support for defense, including for drone and AD capabilities. Netherlands pledging 600,000 drones and 100 radars confirms continued support for UAF's asymmetric capabilities. Ukraine can produce 8M drones annually but lacks funding, highlighting a critical resource gap. Germany's approval of an €8.3 billion military aid budget is a significant positive development. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• RUF: Highly effective C2 over its air/missile operations, capable of multi-layered attacks on diverse targets (Dnipro, Shakhovo, Toretskoye, Sumy, Odesa, Kolodezi, Kherson, now including passenger trains). Tactical C2 for ground operations appears effective given claimed advances and coordinated air/UAV support. Their ability to conduct and report on internal security operations (FSB arrests, arrests for explosives, asset blocking, UAF detention at border, claims of UAF kidnapping) and pass new legislation, as well as coordinate recruitment efforts and youth military training, indicates effective C2 over domestic FSB/law enforcement and political elements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: Effective C2 in rapid air threat warnings, particularly concerning missiles and KABs. Effective C2 for counter-UAV operations (e.g., Lancet shootdown) and ground defense, as evidenced by successful fortification building and repelling multiple assaults and conducting limited counter-actions (3rd Assault Brigade). Effective in managing the aftermath of missile strikes, including BDA and casualty reporting, and coordinating international military aid. UAF demonstrates effective C2 for training, drone maintenance, and defense procurement. UAF's diplomatic C2 remains highly effective, evidenced by the upcoming mini-summit at NATO and continued high-level engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Ground Forces: UAF maintains a resilient defensive posture, actively resisting RUF advances across multiple axes. The successful repelling of 10 assaults in Sumy/Kursk and 6 in Kherson demonstrates high readiness and determination on the flanks. UAF engineer units are actively building fortifications, including anti-drone tunnels for logistics, indicating a focus on strengthening defensive lines. Basic general military training is ongoing for units like the 42nd Mechanized Brigade. UAF remains capable of localized counter-attacks, as suggested by the RUF claim of a UAF attempt to retake Mali Shcherbaky, and demonstrated by the 3rd Assault Brigade near Ridkodub and Ghost of Khortytsia drone operations. 1,000 military personnel began training in defense procurement via the Army+ course, indicating efforts to improve efficiency. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Air Defense: UAF AD is on high alert, actively tracking and responding to missile, KAB, and UAV threats to major cities, critical infrastructure, and military targets. The challenge remains significant given the volume and type (ballistic, KAB) of deeper strikes. UAF Air Force is actively detecting RUF reconnaissance UAVs and tactical aviation. Display of F-16s suggests future air capabilities and boosts morale. Successful Lancet shootdown by 1039th AD Regiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Defense Industry & Procurement: Netherlands' pledge of 600,000 drones and 100 anti-UAV radars is a significant boost, indicating continued focus on asymmetric capabilities and counter-UAV measures. Ukraine's stated capacity to produce 8M drones annually underscores its industrial potential, constrained by funding. Germany's approval of an €8.3 billion military aid budget is a major strategic commitment. UAF also demonstrates active drone repair capabilities. The new procurement training course aims to streamline and professionalize the acquisition process. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Internal Security: SBU continues to thwart assassination attempts and counter hostile activities, successfully jailing an FSB agent in Donetsk. The Office of the Prosecutor General's reporting on war crimes by RUF personnel and the return of over 42M UAH from MoD fraud demonstrates commitment to justice and and accountability. WACS considering pre-trial detention for National Unity Minister Chernyshov is an ongoing development related to internal anti-corruption efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Welfare/Personnel: Meetings with families of the 115th Mechanized Brigade at the Coordination Staff for POW Affairs highlight ongoing efforts to address personnel welfare and maintain morale. A new meeting with families of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" at the Coordination Staff reinforces this. The story of the 18-year-old soldier who joined the infantry and is now a drone operator highlights the youth and determination of Ukrainian personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes:
  • Strategic Military Aid: Netherlands' commitment to fund 600,000 drones and supply 100 anti-UAV radars is a major strategic success for UAF's long-term capabilities and asymmetrical warfare. Germany's approval of €8.3 billion in military aid is a significant financial commitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF Defensive Resilience: UAF successfully repelled 10 RUF assaults in Sumy/Kursk and 6 in Kherson, indicating robust defensive posture and effective combat operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Localized Counter-Actions: The 3rd Assault Brigade successfully pushing occupiers out near Ridkodub (Lyman direction) and Ghost of Khortytsia drone operations in Slobozhanshchyna showcase UAF's ability to conduct localized offensive actions and effective drone warfare. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing RUF KIA from UAF drone strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Fortification Building: UAF engineer units are actively engaged in building fortifications, including anti-drone tunnels for logistics, strengthening defensive positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Deep Strike Capability (Retained & Expanded): RUF reports of intercepting 34 Ukrainian UAVs (including 18 in three hours), and UAF claims of hitting 8 RUF oil depots, confirm UAF's continued capability to conduct deep strikes into Russian territory, directly impacting RUF logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Counter-Intelligence/Justice: Office of the Prosecutor General announcing suspicion against 3 RUF for war crimes and uncovering MoD fraud, and ongoing SBU counter-assassination efforts, including jailing an FSB agent, demonstrate effective legal and counter-intelligence responses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Drone Maintenance & Training: UAF demonstrating capacity to repair drones, enhancing sustainment, and ongoing basic military training for ground units, coupled with new defense procurement training for 1,000 personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Diplomatic Engagement: Zelenskyy's address at the NATO Defence Industry Forum in Netherlands, Trump's statement on potential meeting with Zelenskyy, and the White House confirming it signal continued high-level engagement. Zelenskyy's call for NATO companies to stop supplying components to RUF highlights proactive diplomatic efforts to cut RUF supply lines. The upcoming mini-summit for Zelenskyy at NATO signifies continued high-level support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Air Defense Success: 1039th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment successfully shot down a thermal imager Lancet UAV. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Setbacks:
  • Escalating Civilian Casualties/Infrastructure Damage: RUF ballistic missile strikes caused significant casualties (now 11 dead, over 160 wounded) and extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Dnipro, including schools, kindergartens, residences, a music school, and a passenger train. A strike also occurred on a lyceum in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi (Odesa Oblast). This is a severe humanitarian setback. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports). RUF claims to have hit a "locomotive repair plant" in Dnipro, indicating continued targeting of transport infrastructure. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim).
  • Targeting of Energy Workers: An employee of Zaporizhzhiaoblenergo was wounded in Vasylivka, and Donetsk energy workers again came under fire, indicating continued RUF targeting of critical energy infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Alleged Positional Setbacks: RUF claims "liberation" of Dyleyevka, Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast) and Petrovske/Hrekivka (Luhansk Oblast), and UAF fleeing Yalta. Kotsnews also reports on RUF "advance" in Sumy Oblast. Rybar reports "successes near Konstantinovka." These claims require urgent verification but, if confirmed, would constitute significant tactical setbacks, particularly for logistics towards Konstantinovka. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claims).
  • Strikes on RUF Military Targets (RUF Claim): RUF claims successful FPV drone strikes on a UAF dugout by Caspian Flotilla and the 36th Motor Rifle Brigade stopping UAF in Yalta and engaging. RUF "Rubikon" drones claimed destruction of an ammunition depot and an artillery piece/truck in Kolodezi/Kherson direction. RUF also claims destruction of a UAF UAV control point in Kharkiv Oblast and an Abrams tank in Sumy Oblast. If confirmed, this would be a localized degradation of UAF capabilities. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim).
  • Loss of Foreign Fighter: TASS reports the death of British mercenary Colby Dolman near Mali Shcherbaky. If confirmed, this is a personnel setback. Военкор Котенок also reports on this. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim).
  • Funding Gap for Drone Production: Zelenskyy stating Ukraine can produce 8M drones but lacks funding for that quantity highlights a critical constraint. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Detention of UAF Soldiers (RUF Claim): TASS reports detention of UAF soldiers in civilian clothes on Sumy-Kursk border. If confirmed, this is a personnel setback. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Continued critical need for advanced AD systems to counter ballistic missile and KAB threats, especially for urban centers, critical infrastructure (including railways and energy), and UAF training/force generation facilities. The pledged 600,000 drones and 100 radars and Germany's aid are highly positive but require rapid delivery and integration. Continuous supply chain and training are essential for these systems and FPV drones. The funding gap for Ukraine's own drone production is a significant constraint and a key area for international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF also needs continued international political support to counter RUF's escalating disinformation campaigns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zelenskyy's call to prevent NATO companies from supplying RUF components highlights the need for tighter sanctions enforcement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zelenskyy's stated need for €150 billion for arms production underscores the significant financial requirements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian:
  • Frontline Glorification/Claims: RUF channels (TASS, Colonelcassad, Kotsnews, MoD Russia, Poddubny, Basurin, Alex Parker Returns, Военкор Котенок, WarGonzo, Z комитет + карта СВО, Воин DV, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Два майора, Рыбарь, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА) aggressively disseminate claims of "liberating" Dyleyevka, Perebudova and Petrovske/Hrekivka, and "successes near Konstantinovka," showcasing military prowess and territorial gains. The "buffer zone" claim in Sumy/Kharkiv, amplified by Kotsnews' "advance" report and KAB strikes, aims to project offensive capability in the north and the TASS report about "Kursky residents in Sumy" may serve as a future justification for RUF action in the area. TASS claims UAF are fleeing Yalta and attempted to retake Mali Shcherbaky, where a British mercenary allegedly died. WarGonzo displays destroyed residential areas, blaming UAF. MoD Russia explicitly states MLRS operation in Kharkiv to create buffer zone. Colonelcassad's "Rubicon" video frames drone strikes in a "Judgment Day" and "Motherland" defense narrative, targeting UAF assets and general "manpower." Воин DV shows drone footage targeting UAF truck and shelter. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 gives unverified summary of RUF strikes. Colonelcassad claims destruction of UAF UAV control point in Kharkiv. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА claims Abrams destroyed by Lancet in Sumy Oblast and shows thermal imagery of UAF losses. MoD Russia shows Antonov FPV drone destroying UAF dugout. Операция Z claims Ukrainian commanders kidnapped civilians in Kursk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Domestic Justification/Internal Security: RUF channels continue to amplify domestic incidents (Sheremetyevo airport child injury, TASS reporting detention and drug discovery) and internal security operations (FSB arrests in Zaporizhzhia Oblast for sabotage, investigation into serviceman for rape, arrest for explosives in Kherson, blocking assets of saboteurs, detention of UAF soldiers in civilian clothes at Sumy-Kursk border, lawsuit wins for SVO participants, parental consent for bank accounts) for internal political messaging, framing them as a focus on internal security and law enforcement, and attributing blame to Ukraine. The Kotsnews channel linking the Sheremetyevo incident to the family fleeing "war" and referencing "Israel and Iran" conflict suggests a deliberate attempt to connect disparate events to broader geopolitical narratives for domestic consumption. New laws (fines for not reporting relocation, expanded police powers, driver's license annulment, stateless persons in military, national messenger, asset blocking for saboteurs, film censorship, increased military registration fines, "foreign agent" fines, Russian language law) and social benefits ("free education for SVO participants"), along with recruitment campaigns ("African Corps", motorcycle collection, volunteer tenders, military-patriotic youth clubs and university military training centers), are being promoted to project state control and support for the war effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Victim Blaming/Mockery: RUF channels like "Два майора" previously posted videos of damage in Ukrainian cities with captions like "Dnipro. Still Ukraine," mocking the devastation caused by RUF strikes and implying future capture. Alex Parker Returns engages in aggressive rhetoric against Ukrainian leadership. «Зона СВО» posts mocking video of UAF commander. Kotsnews mocks Zelenskyy for "begging" for aid. «Зона СВО» sensationalizes Zelenskyy's request for €150 billion for arms production. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares photos of the damaged train in Dnipro with the caption "In Dnipro, Rashists killed 11 and wounded 150 more people," which, while not a RUF channel, reflects the devastating impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Countering Western Capabilities/Shaping Geopolitical Narrative: RUF channels continue to report on US intent to develop drone defense based on SVO experience. They are also actively amplifying Donald Trump's statements regarding the Israel-Iran ceasefire (TASS, ASTRA, Операция Z, STERNENKO, Alex Parker Returns, Colonelcassad, Военкор Котенок, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS), likely to divert attention, sow discord among Western allies, or position Russia as a major player in global security. Poddubny comments on NATO's stance on "non-serious" Istanbul talks, aiming to delegitimize peace efforts and undermine Western support for Ukraine. TASS reporting on the exclusion of Ukraine/Georgia NATO membership from the final communiqué of the Hague summit is used to portray Western disunity and weakness. Moskalikova claims "attempts to isolate RF failed" and a "multipolar world is being built." RUF channels are heavily reporting on and framing the Israel-Iran conflict, with Colonelcassad attributing it to "American-Israeli aggression," and Операция Z noting Qatar's condemnation of Iran's strike on a US base, and stating all participants declared victory. TASS claims NATO "on the verge of collapse" after Trump re-election. Poddubny claims EU is becoming "aggressive military-political bloc, a NATO appendage." Военкор Котенок references Wagner mutiny anniversary to reinforce internal stability narrative. Fighterbomber shares Tu-144 video for morale. TASS reports five NATO countries are ready to mine areas along borders with RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Ukrainian:
  • Situational Awareness/Transparency: UAF official channels continue to provide timely updates on air threats, missile/UAV/KAB strikes, and their devastating consequences, demonstrating transparency regarding RUF attacks on civilians and infrastructure (Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Donetsk, Odesa). This includes updated casualty figures for Dnipro (11 dead, 160+ wounded) and video of a damaged passenger train. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Highlighting Domestic Support/Capability: STERNENKO's report on FPV drone procurement and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting on Netherlands' drone/radar aid showcases popular support, international backing, and UAF's adaptive capabilities. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration highlights anti-drone tunnel construction. 46th Airmobile Brigade showcases drone repair. OTU "Kharkiv" shows basic military training. Zelenskyy publicly stated Ukraine's capacity to produce 8M drones/year and 1,000 military personnel began defense procurement training. Operativny ZSU posts F-16 video, likely to show future capabilities. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" highlights young soldiers' determination. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights the 3rd Assault Brigade's success near Ridkodub. Привид Хортиці (Ghost of Khortytsia) showcases UAF drone operations in Slobozhanshchyna. STERNENKO reports 1039th AD Regiment shootdown of Lancet. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Countering RUF Claims/Promoting Justice: The Office of the Prosecutor General's report on war crimes charges against RUF personnel and MoD fraud directly counters RUF narratives and highlights accountability. UAF channels are expected to respond to RUF claims of territorial gains as verification becomes available. КіберБорошно's "Remember. We will avenge." message highlights determination. Оперативний ЗСУ reports SBU jailing an FSB agent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). WACS considering pre-trial detention for National Unity Minister Chernyshov is also reported. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Diplomatic Engagement: Ukrainian channels (РБК-Україна, Операция Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) report on Zelenskyy's arrival in Hague for NATO summit, his address to the Defence Industry Forum, and Yermak's discussion with Rubio about a potential Trump meeting, highlighting Ukraine's active diplomatic efforts to secure support. German military aid approval is highlighted. NATO Secretary General's statement on Ukraine's irreversible path to NATO is noted. Zelenskyy's call for NATO companies to stop supplying components to RUF highlights proactive diplomatic efforts to cut RUF supply lines. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on a mini-summit for Zelenskyy at NATO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Trump's "sharp response" to Putin's mediation offer. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ reports the 18th EU sanctions package will be "harsh and painful" for RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF Losses: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС highlighting RUF KIA from Tyumen Military Engineering Command School with deaths across multiple fronts and video of RUF KIA from drone strike is an effective counter-narrative against RUF claims of minimal losses. Оперативний ЗСУ showcasing 8 hit oil depots directly counters RUF narratives of unaffected logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Personnel Welfare: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Staff for POW Affairs) held a meeting with families of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura," demonstrating commitment to personnel welfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian: Civilian population continues to face extremely high stress due to persistent ballistic missile threats and devastating impacts in urban centers (Dnipro, with 11 dead and over 160 wounded; Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, with strike on a lyceum; and now passenger train damage). The extensive damage to civilian infrastructure (schools, kindergartens, residences, railway) will further heighten public anger and resolve against RUF, and potentially increase calls for more robust air defense. However, news of significant international procurement efforts (Netherlands' drone/radar aid, German aid) and continued fortification building will provide a morale boost, demonstrating resilience and continued international support. Zelenskyy's public statements on drone production capacity and the need for funding can galvanize domestic support for the defense industry. Display of F-16s likely boosts morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Morale among UAF units appears high given successful repelling of assaults, ongoing training/maintenance, successful localized counter-actions (3rd Assault Brigade, Ghost of Khortytsia), and examples of individual bravery and determination. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Counter-intelligence successes (FSB agent jailing) will also boost morale. Continued support for POW families is important for morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Russian: Domestic audiences are being saturated with claims of tactical successes and a controlled narrative of internal stability and robust military support. The continued focus on internal security incidents (FSB arrests, serviceman investigation, arrests for explosives, UAF detention at border, UAF kidnapping claims, SVO participant lawsuits) and new laws (military registration, stateless persons in military, national messenger, asset blocking for saboteurs, film censorship, "foreign agent" laws, Russian language law, parental consent for bank accounts) serves to reinforce state control and justify actions. The focus on international events (Israel-Iran, NATO summit) aims to distract from the conflict in Ukraine and paint a broader picture of global instability where Russia is a key player. Social benefits for "SVO" participants and recruitment efforts (African Corps, motorcycle collections, volunteer tenders, military-patriotic youth programs) are likely intended to boost morale among military personnel and their families. However, reports of RUF KIA from sources like БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, while likely suppressed domestically, can contribute to underlying societal tensions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The continued internal processing of the Wagner mutiny anniversary indicates some lingering internal fragilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• NATO Summit: TASS reports that the promise of Ukraine and Georgia's NATO membership is not mentioned in the draft final communiqué of the Hague summit. This will be amplified by RUF to sow doubt about Western resolve and Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration. However, NATO Secretary General states Ukraine's path is irreversible. Zelenskyy is actively engaging at the Defence Industry Forum and will have a mini-summit at NATO with key leaders, demonstrating high-level diplomatic support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Netherlands Aid: Netherlands' commitment to fund 600,000 drones and provide 100 anti-UAV radars is a significant boost to UAF capabilities and demonstrates continued, practical international support. Zelenskyy's video with Dutch PM Rutte confirms this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• German Aid: Germany's government approving an €8.3 billion military aid budget for Ukraine this year is a substantial commitment to long-term support. German Chancellor states Russia's "barbaric" attacks show it's not ready for peace. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• US Political Figures: RUF and UAF channels are both actively monitoring and reporting on Donald Trump's statements regarding the Israel-Iran conflict, and Trump's potential meeting with Zelenskyy (confirmed by White House), underscoring the perceived impact of US political figures on the broader geopolitical landscape relevant to the conflict. Trump's "sharp response" to Putin's mediation offer. TASS reports Trump hopes to make a deal with Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Humanitarian Concerns: TASS reporting on "Kursky residents in Sumy" and repatriation efforts highlights humanitarian aspects of the conflict which could be leveraged by Russia diplomatically. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Sanctions Enforcement: Zelenskyy's call for NATO companies to ensure they are not supplying components for Russian military equipment highlights the ongoing challenge of sanctions enforcement and the need for greater international cooperation. Operativny ZSU reports the 18th EU sanctions package will be "harsh and painful" for RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Iran-Israel Conflict: The continued attention and framing by RUF media on the Israel-Iran conflict, including claims of Iran's victory and ceasefire, shows an attempt to control the international narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Consolidated Offensive on Donetsk Axis with Intensified Ballistic Missile/UAV/KAB Strikes on Urban Centers and Force Generation Targets; Continued Northern Probing with Localized Incursions and Increased Internal Control Measures; Amplified Hybrid Warfare with Dehumanizing Rhetoric and Global Event Exploitation: RUF will likely continue high-intensity ground assaults on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka), aiming to consolidate claimed gains (Dyleyevka, Perebudova, Petrovske/Hrekivka, "successes near Konstantinovka") and exploit perceived UAF logistical vulnerabilities, supported by heavy air and artillery strikes (as seen with WarGonzo footage and MLRS activity in Kharkiv), with increasing use of precision FPV drones against UAF logistics and artillery, including UAF UAV control points and claimed Abrams destruction. Concurrently, RUF will conduct intensified ballistic missile (e.g., Iskander), KAB (Sumy, Zaporizhzhia), and Shahed/Geran-2 UAV strikes on major Ukrainian urban centers (Dnipro, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa) and increasingly target UAF force generation facilities (training centers, temporary deployment areas) and critical infrastructure (railways, energy facilities, including passenger trains) to degrade Ukraine's long-term combat power and inflict maximum civilian casualties and psychological impact. In Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, RUF will likely maintain or increase reconnaissance UAV activity and probing ground assaults (as evidenced by 10 repelled assaults), potentially conducting localized ground incursions or "buffer zone" expansion efforts in specific border communities, possibly backed by artillery and KABs (Sumy), aiming to tie down UAF forces and create humanitarian crises, leveraging the narrative of "Kursky residents in Sumy" and overt claims of buffer zone creation and "advance," and potentially exploiting claimed detentions of UAF soldiers in civilian clothes and claims of UAF kidnapping in Kursk Oblast. RUF will implement and enforce new internal control measures (military registration fines, police powers, stateless persons in military, national messenger, asset blocking, film censorship, "foreign agent" laws, Russian language law, parental consent for bank accounts) to bolster internal stability and facilitate future mobilization and recruitment (e.g., African Corps, volunteer tenders, military-patriotic youth programs). RUF will maintain its aggressive, multi-faceted internal IO campaign, focusing on justifying internal security measures (FSB arrests, serviceman investigation, Wagner anniversary) and showcasing domestic support for the war, while also increasingly engaging in hybrid warfare by fabricating events and spreading disinformation globally to distract from the conflict in Ukraine and sow discord among international partners (e.g., amplification of Israel-Iran conflict, NATO summit outcomes, Trump statements, EU as NATO appendage, claims of NATO countries mining borders). This will include continued, explicit dehumanizing rhetoric against Ukrainian leadership and military. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Coordinated Breakthrough on Donetsk/Luhansk Axes Paired with a Major Ground Offensive from Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts, Under Cover of a Nationwide Ballistic Missile Saturation Campaign and False-Flag Operations, and Escalated Information Warfare: RUF will launch a highly coordinated, multi-wave ballistic missile (Iskander) and KAB saturation attack on critical UAF military and government command nodes, major urban centers, and key infrastructure across Ukraine (Kyiv, Dnipro, Poltava, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa), specifically targeting railway hubs and energy infrastructure, designed to overwhelm UAF AD and cause significant disruption and panic, leveraging the experience from the Dnipro strikes. Simultaneously, RUF will launch a major ground offensive aimed at achieving an operational breakthrough on the Donetsk and/or Luhansk axes, leveraging heavy air support and exploiting any UAF repositioning, with the objective of reaching key operational lines (e.g., Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration). Critically, this would be complemented by a major ground offensive launched from Sumy Oblast and/or Kharkiv Oblast, aimed at seizing significant territory, creating a deep "buffer zone," or reaching key objectives, forcing Ukraine to commit substantial reserves to a new northern front, potentially diverting forces from critical eastern sectors. This entire operation would be conducted under the cover of a significantly escalated RUF internal IO campaign emphasizing the need for decisive action against "terrorists" and "abductors" from Ukraine, potentially accompanied by false-flag operations (e.g., attacks on border communities, critical infrastructure in RF) attributed to Ukraine or "Western provocateurs" to further justify the intensified war effort, mobilize domestic support, and manipulate international response. The IO campaign will escalate its dehumanization and incitement to violence, potentially leading to increased targeted assassinations or overt threats. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 0-6 hours, starting from 241407Z JUN 25):
  • RUF: Expect continued RUF ballistic missile/KAB/UAV threats/strikes in central, eastern, and southern Ukraine, with a focus on urban centers and potential military targets. RUF will continue to disseminate claims of tactical gains in Donetsk/Luhansk Oblast (including "successes near Konstantinovka") and use its IO to amplify domestic security narratives and mock Ukrainian casualties, and exploit international events (Israel-Iran conflict, NATO summit). Continued reconnaissance UAV activity and probing ground assaults, potentially localized ground "advances," and KAB strikes in Sumy and Kursk Oblasts. Increased focus on domestic messaging related to new laws, social benefits, and recruitment, including any implications from the claimed detention of UAF soldiers at the border and claims of UAF kidnapping in Kursk.
  • UAF Decision Point: Maintain highest AD readiness across all threatened oblasts, prioritizing interception of ballistic missiles and KABs. Immediately verify RUF claims regarding Dyleyevka, Perebudova and Petrovske/Hrekivka, and "successes near Konstantinovka," and assess the security of the surrounding defensive lines and logistical routes. Investigate confirmed RUF ground activity and new map/claims of "advance" in Sumy "buffer zone" urgently, including the claimed detention of UAF soldiers and claims of UAF kidnapping. Proactively monitor RUF IO channels for any new escalatory narratives or shifts in focus on domestic security and geopolitical events (e.g., Israel-Iran, NATO). Continue to highlight RUF's deliberate civilian targeting and war crimes, especially the escalating casualties in Dnipro and the railway infrastructure strike.
• Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
  • RUF: RUF will likely maintain or increase ballistic missile/KAB/UAV strikes on Ukrainian urban centers and critically assess damage to claimed military-industrial/force generation/logistical targets. Ground pressure on the Donetsk/Luhansk axes will likely continue, potentially with increased special forces activity and attempts to exploit any UAF vulnerabilities. Increased localized ground activity and/or shaping operations should be expected in specific border areas of Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, following continued reconnaissance UAV activity, KAB strikes, and "buffer zone" claims, aiming to tie down UAF forces or conduct limited incursions. RUF will maintain a dual-track IO strategy, attempting to keep international attention on other crises while escalating narratives justifying its war in Ukraine and implementing new internal regulations and expanding recruitment efforts, including for military-patriotic youth programs.
  • UAF Decision Point: Sustain intensified AD operations and enhance force protection for civilian and critical infrastructure targets, including railways and energy facilities, and particularly for UAF training centers, temporary deployment areas, and logistics hubs. Continue to reinforce defensive lines on the Donetsk and Luhansk axes, and be prepared for continued RUF ground assaults, including attempts to cut logistical lines. Reinforce defensive posture, intelligence, and reconnaissance, particularly with EW and counter-drone systems, in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblast border communities in anticipation of increased RUF activity or incursions. Prioritize rapid integration and deployment of newly acquired FPV drones and incoming international AD/anti-UAV systems from partners like the Netherlands and Germany, while addressing the domestic drone production funding gap and the stated need for €150 billion. Publicize UAF successes (repelled assaults, aid packages, training, RUF oil depot strikes, SBU successes, 3rd Assault Brigade actions) and international support to counter RUF narratives and boost morale, while acknowledging the severe impact of RUF terror strikes on civilians and coordinating humanitarian relief. Continue to push for tighter sanctions enforcement against companies supplying RUF with military components.

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6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Surge all-source ISR assets (IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT) to Dyleyevka, Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast), Petrovske/Hrekivka (Luhansk Oblast), and Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts. Immediately verify RUF claims of capture/presence, particularly the claim of UAF fleeing Yalta and the claimed "advance" in Sumy, and "successes near Konstantinovka." Assess tactical implications, particularly regarding UAF logistical routes (Konstantinovka) and any northern incursions (including newly mapped areas and reported UAF soldier detentions, and claims of UAF kidnapping).
2. IMMEDIATE: Conduct urgent, detailed BDA on all ballistic missile strikes in Dnipro and reported RUF FPV drone strikes. Prioritize specific targets (e.g., railway lines, civilian institutions, UAF deployment areas, ammo depots) and the extent of damage to inform AD and force protection. Identify munition types (e.g., Iskander) and new RUF drone tactics. Verify RUF claim of "locomotive repair plant" strike in Dnipro and the extent of damage to the passenger train.
3. HIGH: Prioritize all-source ISR (IMINT, SIGINT, EWINT) on Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Focus on the border areas to confirm RUF "buffer zone" claims or any build-up for a larger offensive, including troop concentrations and logistics, especially given KAB strikes and Kotsnews' claims of "advance." Determine precise intent behind persistent RUF reconnaissance UAV activity and ground probing.
4. HIGH: Conduct detailed SIGINT and HUMINT on RUF communication lines and troop movements on the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Sumy/Kharkiv axes, specifically to identify any further attempts to cross rivers, establish new bridgeheads, or intensify special forces operations or larger ground movements.
5. HIGH: Monitor RUF and pro-RUF IO channels for any further shifts in narrative regarding domestic security and "pro-Ukrainian" activities in RF territory, as this indicates RUF's strategic intent to justify internal actions and frame the conflict. Pay close attention to mockery of civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, the amplification of geopolitical narratives (Israel-Iran, NATO, EU as NATO appendage, NATO countries mining borders), and explicit dehumanizing rhetoric. Track RUF recruitment efforts (e.g., "African Corps", volunteer tenders, military-patriotic clubs, university military training centers).
6. HIGH: Investigate the RUF claim of UAF attempt to retake Mali Shcherbaky (Zaporizhzhia) and the reported death of British mercenary Colby Dolman.
7. HIGH: Verify the specific targets and BDA of the "Rubikon" BLA strikes reported by RUF in Donetsk/Kherson directions, specifically the claimed ammunition depot and the truck/artillery piece. Also verify the RUF claim of destroying a UAF UAV control point in Kharkiv Oblast and the claim of Abrams destruction by Lancet in Sumy Oblast.
8. MEDIUM: Investigate reported missile strike on the "Espanyola" marine base in Crimea. Determine if they are results of UAF strikes, internal sabotage, or accidents, to inform future planning.
9. MEDIUM: Verify the TASS claim of UAF fleeing Yalta on the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
10. MEDIUM: Monitor RUF internal procurement/support efforts, specifically the "200 motorcycles" collection. Assess their intended military application and potential impact on RUF mobility on various axes.

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

1. URGENT: Maintain highest AD readiness across Kyiv, Dnipro, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Poltava, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, and Odesa Oblast. Prioritize assets capable of intercepting ballistic missiles (e.g., Iskander) and counter-UAV systems, given the recent surge in attacks and confirmed high civilian casualties, and demonstrated strikes on passenger trains. Ensure rapid re-engagement capabilities and saturation defense.
2. HIGH: Review and enhance force protection measures for all critical infrastructure, especially railway hubs and lines, energy facilities, military training facilities, temporary deployment areas, schools, and hospitals in central and eastern Ukraine, given the direct hits on civilian infrastructure and a train, and UAF facilities. Disperse valuable assets and explore hardening measures, including anti-drone tunnels for logistics routes.
3. HIGH: Advise civilian populations in threatened areas to strictly adhere to air raid warnings and seek reinforced shelter. Communicate clearly why certain conventional shelters may no longer be sufficient against powerful ballistic strikes.
4. CRITICAL: Accelerate the delivery and integration of the 600,000 drones and 100 anti-UAV radars pledged by the Netherlands, and leverage the €8.3 billion from Germany for AD and other critical needs. Prioritize training personnel on these new systems. Seek additional international funding to enable Ukraine to produce its stated capacity of 8M drones annually, and address the stated need for €150 billion for arms production.

6.3. Ground Forces:

1. IMMEDIATE: Confirm or deny RUF claims of Dyleyevka, Perebudova and Petrovske/Hrekivka capture, and UAF fleeing Yalta, and "successes near Konstantinovka." If confirmed, immediately reinforce defensive positions in those sectors and establish counter-attack plans, particularly focusing on protecting logistics routes to Konstantinovka.
2. URGENT: Continue to reinforce defensive positions on the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia axes, specifically focusing on preventing further RUF breakthroughs and consolidating existing lines. Be prepared for increased special forces activity targeting logistics.
3. URGENT: Elevate readiness and reinforce defensive lines and fortifications in specific border areas of Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts (including near any claimed "buffer zones"). Be prepared for intensified RUF ground activity or a limited new offensive, following the increased reconnaissance UAV activity, KAB strikes, and RUF claims/assaults, and the claimed detention of UAF soldiers and claims of UAF kidnapping. Prioritize defensive engineering efforts shown by 23rd Engineer Regiment and anti-drone tunnel construction in Zaporizhzhia, and continue basic military training. Support localized counter-actions as demonstrated by 3rd Assault Brigade and Ghost of Khortytsia drone operations.
4. HIGH: Continue accelerating training programs and recruitment efforts for drone units and EW teams, emphasizing their critical role in both ISR and offensive/defensive operations. Leverage newly acquired FPV drones effectively and prioritize drone repair capabilities. Support the new defense procurement training for military personnel.
5. HIGH: Enhance protection against RUF special forces operating in rear areas, particularly around critical infrastructure, energy facilities, and military facilities. Implement more robust check-points and patrols.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Issue rapid, verifiable counter-narratives to RUF claims of Dyleyevka, Perebudova, Petrovske/Hrekivka, Sumy/Kharkiv "buffer zone" capture/presence, UAF fleeing Yalta, "successes near Konstantinovka," or attempting to recapture Mali Shcherbaky, and the claimed detention of UAF soldiers and claims of UAF kidnapping. Provide transparent, evidence-based updates on UAF defensive operations, highlighting repelled assaults and fortification building, and showcasing successful localized counter-actions.
2. URGENT: Launch a globally coordinated IO campaign to highlight Russia's deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure, including schools, hospitals, railways (passenger train), and energy facilities, and the escalating number of civilian casualties, particularly children. Expose RUF's continuous war crimes and its blatant disregard for international humanitarian law, particularly the "mockery" from RUF channels of civilian suffering. Use the Dnipro casualty figures (11 dead, 160+ wounded) and Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi strike to underscore the brutality.
3. HIGH: Publicize UAF successes in drone procurement (Netherlands aid, German aid) and fortification building, and drone repair capabilities, as well as ongoing military training and new procurement training. Emphasize Ukraine's resilience, innovation, and growing self-sufficiency in defense, while also acknowledging the vital role of international support and highlighting the critical funding gap for domestic drone production. Publicize successful UAF deep strikes on RUF territory (e.g., oil depots) and RUF KIA. Showcase F-16 capabilities. Highlight SBU counter-intelligence successes (FSB agent jailing).
4. HIGH: Counter RUF narratives that attempt to demoralize Ukrainian population or frame the conflict as an inevitable defeat. Reiterate Ukraine's principled stand for peace based on territorial integrity and sovereignty.
5. HIGH: Collaborate with international partners to fact-check and expose RUF's internal propaganda related to domestic security and "pro-Ukrainian" threats, demonstrating their use of these narratives to justify repression and sustained aggression. Proactively address RUF attempts to link Ukraine to broader geopolitical crises (Israel-Iran) and their claims of "failed isolation," and the rhetoric of NATO's collapse and EU as an appendage. Highlight the significance of RUF KIA data from channels like БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС to counter RUF's narrative of minimal losses.
6. HIGH: Continue active diplomatic engagement at international forums (e.g., NATO summit, including the mini-summit) to secure comprehensive support, including advanced AD systems and long-range capabilities, while managing expectations regarding specific membership timelines. Leverage Zelenskyy's address at the Defence Industry Forum to push for increased funding for Ukrainian defense production and to press NATO companies to cease supplying components to RUF. Highlight the impact of the 18th EU sanctions package.

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END OF REPORT