Sitrep 2025-06-24 11:37:58

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 241137Z JUN 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

Donetsk Oblast: RUF MoD, Colonelcassad, and Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition continue to claim the "liberation" of Dyleyevka, described as a "powerful fortified area" on the approaches to Konstantinovka. RUF claims this allows "fire control" over UAF logistics towards Konstantinovka. The UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) explicitly reports clashes near Dyliyivka (Toretsk direction) and Pokrovsk direction (Promin, Novotoretske, Myrolubivka, Lysivka, Novoukrayinka, Novoserhiyivka, Udachne, Myrnohrad, Oleksiyivka, Popiv Yar, Malynivka, Koptyevye and towards Shakhove, Volodymyrivka, Molodetske, Serhiyivka, Novopavlivka), confirming active combat in these claimed areas. TASS reports that Igor Kimakovsky, advisor to the DPR Head, claims UAF are attempting to flee from Yalta on the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This claim is unverified. WarGonzo shared aerial footage of a destroyed residential area, captioned "Somalis demolish houses with AFU members inside," indicating RUF claims of sustained destructive engagement against UAF positions, possibly in Donetsk or other eastern sectors. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on Dyleyevka, UAF confirms active combat; LOW CONFIDENCE – verification of RUF control over Dyleyevka, and of RUF claims regarding Yalta).
Luhansk Oblast: RUF sources (Alex Parker Returns, Военкор Котенок) continue to claim the "liberation" of Petrovske (Hrekivka), asserting that "LNR is completely liberated." The UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports clashes yesterday near Tverdokhlibove, Ridkodub, Karpivka, Kolodyazi and towards Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyny, Novyi Myr, Olhivka (Lyman direction), indicating active combat in the broader area of Hrekivka/Petrovske. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on Petrovske/Hrekivka, UAF confirms active combat; LOW CONFIDENCE – verification of RUF control over Petrovske/Hrekivka).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): RUF launched ballistic missiles against Dnipro city. Updated reports from UAF official sources (Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, STERNENKO, Офіс Генерального прокурора) confirm a significant increase in casualties: 9 KIA and over 70 wounded, including children. Multiple civilian structures (19 schools, 10 kindergartens, vocational and music schools) and a passenger train were damaged. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF/Independent sources on impacts, casualties, train damage, and damage to civilian infrastructure; HIGH CONFIDENCE – Civilian targeting).
Sumy Oblast: Basurin о главном previously posted photos and claims of a "buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast. The UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) explicitly reports UAF forces repelled 10 RUF assaults yesterday in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, confirming active combat and persistent RUF pressure in the border region. TASS reports that Russian Commissioner for Human Rights Moskalikova informed Putin that 32 Kursky residents remain in Sumy, with 132 repatriated, suggesting Russian civilians are present in or have been removed from the region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF repelled assaults in Sumy/Kursk; LOW CONFIDENCE – RUF claim of "buffer zone" in Sumy, unverified).
Kharkiv Oblast: UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Ozerne, Mala Vovcha of Kharkiv region. Clashes yesterday near Dvorichna, Hlyboke, Vovchanski Khutory, Krasne Pershe and Fyholivka (South Slobozhansky direction) and near Kindrashivka, Kruhlyakivka and towards Pischane, Petropavlivka (Kupyansk direction). (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports on RUF airstrikes and clashes).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration previously reported a Zaporizhzhiaoblenergo employee was wounded in Vasylivka District. The UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Novoselivka, Mala Tokmachka of Zaporizhzhia region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official report). Additionally, Colonelcassad reports FSB detained three Russians in Zaporizhzhia Oblast for attempting sabotage, displaying IED components and a pistol, with one detainee claiming recruitment by Ukrainian services. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF internal security operation). UAF Air Force reports activity of RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration is scaling up protection for Defense Forces by constructing new anti-drone tunnels for logistics routes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report).
Kyiv Oblast: Office of the Prosecutor General (Офіс Генерального прокурора) reports three RUF military personnel have been notified of suspicion for shooting a car and cruel treatment of civilians in Kyiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official report).
Kherson Oblast: UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 6 Russian army assaults in the Kherson direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official report).
Other Axes (UAF General Staff Reports):
- Siversk direction: Clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka.
- Kramatorsk direction: Clashes yesterday near Novomarkove, Chasiv Yar and towards Mykolayivka, Stupochok, Pryvillya, Bondarne.
- Novopavlivka direction: Clashes yesterday near Bahatyr, Novosilka, Zaporizhzhya, Perebudova, Komar, Myrne, Shevchenko, Vilne Pole and towards Voskresenka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports).
RF Territory (Various Regions): ASTRA and RUF MoD via TASS claimed Russian air defense forces destroyed 34 Ukrainian UAVs over various regions of Russia. Igor Artamonov (Governor, Lipetsk Oblast) reports a UAV threat in Usmansky and Dobrinsky districts. Воин DV shared a video (from a subscriber) showing a drone surveying agricultural fields, with an explosion in a forested area, followed by "No transmission signal..." and "Drone not connected to the remote." (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims, RUF internal reporting on UAV threats, video provides BDA of drone loss). Bytusov Plus reports on "Meet the heroes, Russia!", likely referring to RUF KIA/POW. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF internal reporting).
RF Territory (Crimea): Два майора previously posted videos of a building collapse and a building engulfed in flames, captioned "Crimea." (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF internal reporting, unclear cause of damage).
RF Territory (Northern Grouping): TASS reports a Caspian Flotilla FPV drone "Antonov" destroyed a UAF dugout with personnel in the area of responsibility of the "North" grouping, implying activity near the northern border of Ukraine. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claim with video, unverified by UAF).
RUF Internal Affairs: TASS reports that the State Duma adopted a law on fines up to 20,000 rubles for failing to report relocation to a military enlistment office. Another law increases the fine up to 10,000 rubles for refusal to stop a car at the request of police. The State Duma also expanded the rights of the State Traffic Safety Inspectorate (ГИБДД) to annul driver's licenses for medical contraindications. Putin supported the idea of allowing participants of the "special operation" to receive a second secondary specialized education for free. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting on legislation and social policies).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

No significant changes to weather or environmental factors affecting operations in Ukraine. Visuals from Dnipro continue to show clear skies during ballistic missile impacts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF):
- Ground Forces: UAF maintains active defensive operations across multiple axes, repelling assaults in Sumy/Kursk, Kherson, and engaging in clashes in Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka directions. UAF 23rd Engineer-Positioning Regiment (✙DeepState✙🇺🇦) showed footage of building fortifications (IFS), indicating continued defensive preparations. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration is actively constructing anti-drone tunnels to protect logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Air Defense (AD): UAF Air Force continues to provide real-time warnings of RUF missile threats. UAF AD is engaged in intercepting RUF attacks, but the volume of RUF strikes continues to cause significant civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, particularly from ballistic missiles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports active RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Deep Strike Capability: UAF continues to conduct drone strikes deep into RF territory, as evidenced by RUF claims of intercepting 34 UAVs and the drone video from Воин DV. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Information Operations (IO): Ukrainian channels (RBC-Ukraine, Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration, Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), Офіс Генерального прокурора) continue to provide immediate assessments and photographic/video evidence of RUF attacks and their consequences, highlighting civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure (Dnipro, Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The 46th Separate Airmobile Podolsk Brigade of the DShV of the Armed Forces of Ukraine shared a video titled "Save the drone: how masters keep the sky," highlighting UAF's repair and maintenance capabilities for drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Russian Forces (RUF):
- Ground Operations: RUF MoD claims "mopping up" Dyleyevka (Donetsk Oblast) and "complete liberation" of Petrovske/Hrekivka (Luhansk Oblast). UAF General Staff confirms active clashes in these areas, indicating RUF intent to advance and consolidate. Persistent RUF assaults continue in Sumy/Kursk and Kherson directions. TASS claims UAF are fleeing Yalta on the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. WarGonzo shows aerial footage of destroyed residential areas, claiming "Somalis demolish houses with AFU members inside," indicating continued destructive operations against UAF positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims and UAF confirmation of active combat).
- Artillery/Air Strikes: RUF employed ballistic missiles (claimed 4 Iskanders) on Dnipro, causing significant civilian infrastructure damage and casualties (now 9 KIA, ~70 wounded). RUF aviation continues airstrikes in Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. RUF FPV drone "Antonov" is used for precision strikes (claimed dugout destruction). (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF reports on strikes; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on specific targets/munition types).
- Logistics/Equipment: RUF continues to possess and employ advanced missile and UAV systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shared a video of a destroyed armored fighting vehicle, identified as a US M2 Bradley BMP, likely for propaganda purposes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF propaganda).
- Internal Security Operations: FSB conducted operations in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, detaining individuals accused of sabotage and displaying IED components, likely for internal messaging. RUF State Duma is tightening internal controls via legislation regarding military registration and traffic violations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Information Operations (IO): RUF channels (TASS, Colonelcassad, Basurin, Poddubny, WarGonzo, Операция Z, MoD Russia, Два майора, Военкор Котенок, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Новости Москвы, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники) continue to aggressively disseminate claims of tactical successes (Dyleyevka, Petrovske/Hrekivka, Sumy "buffer zone"), amplify domestic narratives (Sheremetyevo incident, FSB arrests, new laws on military registration and traffic, social benefits for "SVO" participants), and promote military support efforts. They continue to comment on international relations (US drone defense based on SVO experience, US WhatsApp ban, Trump's statements on Israel/Iran ceasefire, NATO summit outcomes, "failure of attempts to isolate RF"). Alex Parker Returns continues to engage in highly aggressive, dehumanizing rhetoric against Ukrainian leadership. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

CRITICAL: Immediate and independent verification of RUF claims regarding confirmed capture of Dyleyevka (Donetsk Oblast) and Petrovske/Hrekivka (Luhansk Oblast). Assess tactical implications of any confirmed RUF gains in these areas, particularly regarding control over UAF logistics routes to Konstantinovka. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
CRITICAL: Verify the extent and intent of RUF ground activity in Sumy Oblast. The UAF General Staff reports 10 repelled assaults, but RUF claims of a "buffer zone" persist. Determine specific locations of RUF incursions, force size, and intent (raids, limited occupation, or shaping for larger offensive). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
HIGH: Conduct comprehensive BDA on all recent RUF ballistic missile, KAB, and UAV strikes, especially in Dnipro. Verify specific targets (e.g., railway station area, schools, hospitals, residential buildings, train line) and damage assessment, and confirm munition types (e.g., Iskander, KAB variants). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA teams, IMINT, OSINT).
HIGH: Assess the reported RUF FPV drone "Antonov" strike against a UAF dugout. Confirm target and BDA to understand RUF's evolving tactical drone usage. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT).
HIGH: Monitor RUF internal security operations (e.g., FSB arrests in Zaporizhzhia) and new legislation (military registration, traffic control). Analyze the intent behind publicizing such operations and laws, particularly concerning potential false-flag preparations or justifications for internal repression and mobilization. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
MEDIUM: Obtain more information on the incidents in Crimea. Determine the cause of the damage (UAF strike, internal incident, etc.) and assess the impact on RUF capabilities. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT).
MEDIUM: Verify the TASS claim of UAF fleeing Yalta on the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

Ground Capabilities: RUF continues to demonstrate capability for localized ground advances, particularly on the Donetsk axis, aiming to seize key UAF strongholds and logistical nodes (e.g., Dyleyevka near Konstantinovka). The UAF General Staff reports of 10 repelled assaults in Sumy/Kursk confirm persistent RUF ground pressure and capability in the north, even if no major breakthrough has occurred. RUF continues destructive operations against UAF positions, as evidenced by WarGonzo's footage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Artillery/Air Capabilities: RUF maintains a significant ballistic missile strike capability (evidenced by Dnipro strikes, claimed Iskander use) and extensive use of KABs and Shahed/Geran-2 UAVs. This capability is used for deep strikes against urban centers, civilian infrastructure, and increasingly, UAF force generation targets (training centers, temporary deployment areas) and logistics (ammunition depots). The increase to 9 KIA and over 70 wounded in Dnipro highlights the continued lethal effectiveness of these strikes against civilian populations. RUF reconnaissance UAV activity remains high in critical areas like Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Information Warfare Capabilities: RUF's IO remains highly agile and adaptive, rapidly amplifying claims of tactical gains (Dyleyevka, Petrovske/Hrekivka), domestic issues (Sheremetyevo, FSB arrests, new restrictive laws), and attempting to project control by claiming "buffer zones" in Ukraine. They continue to use disinformation to justify internal crackdowns and maintain public support, and are actively shaping narratives around international events (Israel-Iran ceasefire, NATO summit outcomes, "failure of isolation"). Alex Parker Returns' rhetoric indicates an intent to actively dehumanize Ukrainian leadership and incite violence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Intentions: RUF intends to:
- Sustain Offensive Pressure & Consolidate Gains: Continue high-intensity ground assaults on key axes (Donetsk, Luhansk) to achieve localized gains and attrit UAF forces, attempting to sever UAF logistics, particularly towards Konstantinovka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Degrade UAF Morale and Capabilities: Through continued terror strikes against civilian targets and military-industrial/force generation infrastructure using ballistic missiles, KABs, and UAVs. This includes targeting critical transport infrastructure like train lines and training/deployment centers. The increased casualties in Dnipro underscore this intent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Reinforce Domestic Support & Legitimacy: Use claims of tactical gains, internal security actions (arrests of perceived threats, new laws on military registration), and publicize domestic support for the military (free education for "SVO" participants) to reinforce internal cohesion and project control. The renewed emphasis on "Kursky residents in Sumy" may serve to frame future actions as repatriation or protection. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Exert Control over Border Areas: The persistent assaults and "buffer zone" claims in Sumy, combined with confirmed RUF ground activity and TASS reporting on Russian civilians in Sumy, strongly suggest a long-term intent to establish a physical presence in northern Ukraine or at least to destabilize the border regions and tie down UAF forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Shape International Narrative: By commenting on Israel-Iran ceasefire and NATO summit outcomes, and claiming "isolation attempts failed," RUF seeks to project itself as a relevant geopolitical actor and potentially sow discord among Western partners or divert attention from Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Dehumanize and Incite: Channels like Alex Parker Returns continue to push dehumanizing rhetoric and incite violence against Ukrainian leadership, indicating an intent to radicalize pro-RUF audiences and justify extreme measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

RUF: Continued high volume of ballistic missiles (claimed 4 Iskanders in Dnipro), KABs, and Shahed/Geran-2 UAVs for deep strikes and shaping operations. The claimed capture of Dyleyevka and Petrovske/Hrekivka indicates persistent focus on expanding control in Donetsk/Luhansk Oblasts. Increased targeting of UAF training centers and temporary deployment areas indicates an adaptation to degrade UAF force generation. The continued, unsuccessful ground assaults in Sumy/Kursk, despite the large force concentration reported in the previous ISR, suggest a probing or attritional strategy for now, but the intent for a "buffer zone" or larger offensive remains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The use of FPV drone "Antonov" by Caspian Flotilla marine infantry suggests specialized unit-level adaptation in drone warfare. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). Tightening internal regulations (military registration, traffic control) reflects efforts to increase societal control in support of the war effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF: Continues to demonstrate effective AD responses to RUF UAVs in some areas, but struggles with the volume and type (ballistic) of deeper strikes. UAF is actively building fortifications, including anti-drone tunnels for logistics. UAF ground forces are effectively repelling multiple RUF assaults across various axes, indicating strong defensive posture. UAF is actively repairing drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

RUF continues to possess and employ ballistic missiles (Iskander), KABs, and Shahed/Geran-2 UAVs, indicating sustained production or external supply. RUF's ability to maintain offensive operations suggests adequate logistical support for ground forces, supplemented by significant domestic support and new internal mobilization laws. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF continues to require and receive significant international support for defense, including for drone and AD capabilities. Netherlands pledging 600,000 drones and 100 radars confirms continued support for UAF's asymmetric capabilities. Germany's approval of an €8.3 billion military aid budget is a significant positive development. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

RUF: Highly effective C2 over its air/missile operations, capable of multi-layered attacks on diverse targets (Dnipro, Shakhovo, Toretskoye). Tactical C2 for ground operations appears effective given claimed advances and coordinated air/UAV support. Their ability to conduct and report on internal security operations (FSB arrests) and pass new legislation indicates effective C2 over domestic FSB/law enforcement and political elements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF: Effective C2 in rapid air threat warnings, particularly concerning missiles. Effective C2 for counter-UAV operations and ground defense, as evidenced by successful fortification building and repelling multiple assaults. Effective in managing the aftermath of missile strikes, including BDA and casualty reporting, and coordinating international military aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

Ground Forces: UAF maintains a resilient defensive posture, actively resisting RUF advances across multiple axes. The successful repelling of 10 assaults in Sumy/Kursk and 6 in Kherson demonstrates high readiness and determination on the flanks. UAF engineer units are actively building fortifications, including anti-drone tunnels for logistics, indicating a focus on strengthening defensive lines. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Air Defense: UAF AD is on high alert, actively tracking and responding to missile and UAV threats to major cities, critical infrastructure, and military targets. The challenge remains significant given the volume and type of RUF strikes. UAF Air Force is actively detecting RUF reconnaissance UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Defense Industry & Procurement: Netherlands' pledge of 600,000 drones and 100 anti-UAV radars is a significant boost, indicating continued focus on asymmetric capabilities and counter-UAV measures. Germany's approval of an €8.3 billion military aid budget is a major strategic commitment. UAF also demonstrates active drone repair capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Internal Security: SBU continues to thwart assassination attempts and counter hostile activities. The Office of the Prosecutor General's reporting on war crimes by RUF personnel demonstrates commitment to justice and accountability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Welfare/Personnel: Meetings with families of the 115th Mechanized Brigade at the Coordination Staff for POW Affairs highlight ongoing efforts to address personnel welfare and maintain morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

Successes:
- Strategic Military Aid: Netherlands' commitment to fund 600,000 drones and supply 100 anti-UAV radars is a major strategic success for UAF's long-term capabilities and asymmetrical warfare. Germany's approval of €8.3 billion in military aid is a significant financial commitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- UAF Defensive Resilience: UAF successfully repelled 10 RUF assaults in Sumy/Kursk and 6 in Kherson, indicating robust defensive posture and effective combat operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Fortification Building: UAF engineer units are actively engaged in building fortifications, including anti-drone tunnels for logistics, strengthening defensive positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Deep Strike Capability (Retained): RUF reports of intercepting 34 Ukrainian UAVs confirm UAF's continued capability to conduct deep strikes into Russian territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Counter-Intelligence/Justice: Office of the Prosecutor General announcing suspicion against 3 RUF for war crimes, and ongoing SBU counter-assassination efforts, demonstrate effective legal and counter-intelligence responses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Drone Maintenance: UAF demonstrating capacity to repair drones, enhancing sustainment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Setbacks:
- Escalating Civilian Casualties/Infrastructure Damage: RUF ballistic missile strikes caused significant casualties (now 9 KIA, over 70 wounded, including children) and extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Dnipro, including schools, kindergartens, vocational schools, a music school, and a passenger train. This is a severe humanitarian setback. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports).
- Targeting of Energy Workers: An employee of Zaporizhzhiaoblenergo was wounded in Vasylivka, indicating continued RUF targeting of critical energy infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Alleged Positional Setbacks: RUF claims "liberation" of Dyleyevka (Donetsk Oblast) and Petrovske/Hrekivka (Luhansk Oblast), and UAF fleeing Yalta. These claims require urgent verification but, if confirmed, would constitute significant tactical setbacks, particularly for logistics towards Konstantinovka. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claims).
- Strikes on UAF Deployment/Logistics (RUF Claim): RUF claims successful FPV drone strikes on a UAF dugout by Caspian Flotilla. If confirmed, this would be a localized degradation of UAF capabilities. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

Continued critical need for advanced AD systems to counter ballistic missile and KAB threats, especially for urban centers, critical infrastructure (including railways and energy), and UAF training/force generation facilities. The pledged 600,000 drones and 100 radars and Germany's aid are highly positive but require rapid delivery and integration. Continuous supply chain and training are essential for these systems and FPV drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF also needs continued international political support to counter RUF's escalating disinformation campaigns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

Russian:
- Frontline Glorification/Claims: RUF channels (TASS, Colonelcassad, Kotsnews, MoD Russia, Poddubny, Basurin, Alex Parker Returns, Военкор Котенок, WarGonzo) aggressively disseminate claims of "liberating" Dyleyevka and Petrovske/Hrekivka, showcasing military prowess and territorial gains. The "buffer zone" claim in Sumy aims to project offensive capability in the north and the TASS report about "Kursky residents in Sumy" may serve as a future justification for RUF action in the area. TASS claims UAF are fleeing Yalta. WarGonzo displays destroyed residential areas, blaming UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Domestic Justification/Internal Security: RUF channels continue to amplify domestic incidents (Sheremetyevo airport child injury, TASS reporting detention and drug discovery) and internal security operations (FSB arrests in Zaporizhzhia Oblast for sabotage) for internal political messaging, framing them as a focus on internal security and law enforcement, and attributing blame to Ukraine. The Kotsnews channel linking the Sheremetyevo incident to the family fleeing "war" and referencing "Israel and Iran" conflict suggests a deliberate attempt to connect disparate events to broader geopolitical narratives for domestic consumption. New laws (fines for not reporting relocation, expanded police powers, driver's license annulment) and social benefits ("free education for SVO participants") are being promoted to project state control and support for the war effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Victim Blaming/Mockery: RUF channels like "Два майора" previously posted videos of damage in Ukrainian cities with captions like "Dnipro. Still Ukraine," mocking the devastation caused by RUF strikes and implying future capture. Alex Parker Returns engages in aggressive rhetoric against Ukrainian leadership. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Countering Western Capabilities/Shaping Geopolitical Narrative: RUF channels continue to report on US intent to develop drone defense based on SVO experience. They are also actively amplifying Donald Trump's statements regarding the Israel-Iran ceasefire (TASS, ASTRA, Операция Z, STERNENKO, Alex Parker Returns, Colonelcassad), likely to divert attention, sow discord among Western allies, or position Russia as a major player in global security. Poddubny comments on NATO's stance on "non-serious" Istanbul talks, aiming to delegitimize peace efforts and undermine Western support for Ukraine. TASS reporting on the exclusion of Ukraine/Georgia NATO membership from the final communiqué of the Hague summit is used to portray Western disunity and weakness. Moskalikova claims "attempts to isolate RF failed" and a "multipolar world is being built." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Ukrainian:
- Situational Awareness/Transparency: UAF official channels continue to provide timely updates on air threats, missile/UAV/KAB strikes, and their devastating consequences, demonstrating transparency regarding RUF attacks on civilians and infrastructure (Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Highlighting Domestic Support/Capability: STERNENKO's report on FPV drone procurement and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting on Netherlands' drone/radar aid showcases popular support, international backing, and UAF's adaptive capabilities. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration highlights anti-drone tunnel construction. 46th Airmobile Brigade showcases drone repair. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Countering RUF Claims/Promoting Justice: The Office of the Prosecutor General's report on war crimes charges against RUF personnel directly counters RUF narratives and highlights accountability. UAF channels are expected to respond to RUF claims of territorial gains as verification becomes available. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Diplomatic Engagement: Ukrainian channels (РБК-Україна, Операция Z, Оперативний ЗСУ) report on Zelenskyy's arrival in Hague for NATO summit and Yermak's discussion with Rubio about a potential Trump meeting, highlighting Ukraine's active diplomatic efforts to secure support. German military aid approval is highlighted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

Ukrainian: Civilian population continues to face extremely high stress due to persistent ballistic missile threats and devastating impacts in urban centers (Dnipro, with 9 KIA and over 70 wounded, including children). The extensive damage to civilian infrastructure (schools, hospitals, residences, railway) will further heighten public anger and resolve against RUF, and potentially increase calls for more robust air defense. However, news of significant international procurement efforts (Netherlands' drone/radar aid, German aid) and continued fortification building will provide a morale boost, demonstrating resilience and continued international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Morale among UAF units appears high given successful repelling of assaults, despite heavy combat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Russian: Domestic audiences are being saturated with claims of tactical successes and a controlled narrative of internal stability and robust military support. The continued focus on internal security incidents (FSB arrests) and new laws (military registration) serves to reinforce state control and justify actions. The focus on international events (Israel-Iran, NATO summit) aims to distract from the conflict in Ukraine and paint a broader picture of global instability where Russia is a key player. Social benefits for "SVO" participants are likely intended to boost morale among military personnel and their families. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

NATO Summit: TASS reports that the promise of Ukraine and Georgia's NATO membership is not mentioned in the draft final communiqué of the Hague summit. This will be amplified by RUF to sow doubt about Western resolve and Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Netherlands Aid: Netherlands' commitment to fund 600,000 drones and provide 100 anti-UAV radars is a significant boost to UAF capabilities and demonstrates continued, practical international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
German Aid: Germany's government approving an €8.3 billion military aid budget for Ukraine this year is a substantial commitment to long-term support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
US Political Figures: RUF and UAF channels are both actively monitoring and reporting on Donald Trump's statements regarding the Israel-Iran ceasefire, underscoring the perceived impact of US political figures on the broader geopolitical landscape relevant to the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Humanitarian Concerns: TASS reporting on "Kursky residents in Sumy" and repatriation efforts highlights humanitarian aspects of the conflict which could be leveraged by Russia diplomatically. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

Consolidated Offensive on Donetsk Axis with Intensified Ballistic Missile/UAV/KAB Strikes on Urban Centers and Force Generation Targets; Continued Northern Probing with Localized Incursions and Increased Internal Control Measures; Amplified Hybrid Warfare with Dehumanizing Rhetoric: RUF will likely continue high-intensity ground assaults on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka), aiming to consolidate claimed gains (Dyleyevka, Petrovske/Hrekivka) and exploit perceived UAF logistical vulnerabilities, supported by heavy air and artillery strikes (as seen with WarGonzo footage). Concurrently, RUF will conduct intensified ballistic missile (e.g., Iskander), KAB, and Shahed/Geran-2 UAV strikes on major Ukrainian urban centers (Dnipro, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Kharkiv) and increasingly target UAF force generation facilities (training centers, temporary deployment areas) and critical infrastructure (railways, energy facilities) to degrade Ukraine's long-term combat power and inflict maximum civilian casualties and psychological impact. In Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, RUF will likely maintain or increase reconnaissance UAV activity and probing ground assaults (as evidenced by 10 repelled assaults), potentially conducting localized ground incursions or "buffer zone" expansion efforts in specific border communities to tie down UAF forces and create humanitarian crises, leveraging the narrative of "Kursky residents in Sumy." RUF will implement and enforce new internal control measures (military registration fines, police powers) to bolster internal stability and facilitate future mobilization. RUF will maintain its aggressive, multi-faceted internal IO campaign, focusing on justifying internal security measures (FSB arrests) and showcasing domestic support for the war, while also increasingly engaging in hybrid warfare by fabricating events and spreading disinformation globally to distract from the conflict in Ukraine and sow discord among international partners (e.g., amplification of Israel-Iran conflict, NATO summit outcomes). This will include continued, explicit dehumanizing rhetoric against Ukrainian leadership and military. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

Coordinated Breakthrough on Donetsk/Luhansk Axes Paired with a Major Ground Offensive from Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts, Under Cover of a Nationwide Ballistic Missile Saturation Campaign and False-Flag Operations, and Escalated Information Warfare: RUF will launch a highly coordinated, multi-wave ballistic missile (Iskander) and KAB saturation attack on critical UAF military and government command nodes, major urban centers, and key infrastructure across Ukraine (Kyiv, Dnipro, Poltava, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia), specifically targeting railway hubs and energy infrastructure, designed to overwhelm UAF AD and cause significant disruption and panic, leveraging the experience from the Dnipro strikes. Simultaneously, RUF will launch a major ground offensive aimed at achieving an operational breakthrough on the Donetsk and/or Luhansk axes, leveraging heavy air support and exploiting any UAF repositioning, with the objective of reaching key operational lines (e.g., Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration). Critically, this would be complemented by a major ground offensive launched from Sumy Oblast, aimed at seizing significant territory, creating a deep "buffer zone," or reaching key objectives, forcing Ukraine to commit substantial reserves to a new northern front, potentially diverting forces from critical eastern sectors. This entire operation would be conducted under the cover of a significantly escalated RUF internal IO campaign emphasizing the need for decisive action against "terrorists" and "abductors" from Ukraine, potentially accompanied by false-flag operations (e.g., attacks on border communities, critical infrastructure in RF) attributed to Ukraine or "Western provocateurs" to further justify the intensified war effort, mobilize domestic support, and manipulate international response. The IO campaign will escalate its dehumanization and incitement to violence, potentially leading to increased targeted assassinations or overt threats. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

Immediate (Next 0-6 hours, starting from 241137Z JUN 25):
- RUF: Expect continued RUF ballistic missile/KAB/UAV threats/strikes in central, eastern, and southern Ukraine, with a focus on urban centers and potential military targets. RUF will continue to disseminate claims of tactical gains in Donetsk/Luhansk Oblast and use its IO to amplify domestic security narratives and mock Ukrainian casualties. Continued reconnaissance UAV activity and probing ground assaults in Sumy and Kursk Oblasts. Increased focus on domestic messaging related to new laws and social benefits.
- UAF Decision Point: Maintain highest AD readiness across all threatened oblasts, prioritizing interception of ballistic missiles and KABs. Immediately verify RUF claims regarding Dyleyevka and Petrovske/Hrekivka, and assess the security of the surrounding defensive lines and logistical routes. Investigate confirmed RUF ground activity in Sumy "buffer zone" urgently. Proactively monitor RUF IO channels for any new escalatory narratives or shifts in focus on domestic security and geopolitical events (e.g., Israel-Iran, NATO).
Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
- RUF: RUF will likely maintain or increase ballistic missile/KAB/UAV strikes on Ukrainian urban centers and critically assess damage to claimed military-industrial/force generation/logistical targets. Ground pressure on the Donetsk/Luhansk axes will likely continue, potentially with increased special forces activity and attempts to exploit any UAF vulnerabilities. Increased localized ground activity and/or shaping operations should be expected in specific border areas of Sumy Oblast, following continued reconnaissance UAV activity and "buffer zone" claims, aiming to tie down UAF forces or conduct limited incursions. RUF will maintain a dual-track IO strategy, attempting to keep international attention on other crises while escalating narratives justifying its war in Ukraine and implementing new internal regulations.
- UAF Decision Point: Sustain intensified AD operations and enhance force protection for civilian and critical infrastructure targets, including railways and energy facilities, and particularly for UAF training centers, temporary deployment areas, and logistics hubs. Continue to reinforce defensive lines on the Donetsk and Luhansk axes, and be prepared for continued RUF ground assaults, including attempts to cut logistical lines. Reinforce defensive posture, intelligence, and reconnaissance, particularly with EW and counter-drone systems, in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblast border communities in anticipation of increased RUF activity or incursions. Prioritize rapid integration and deployment of newly acquired FPV drones and incoming international AD/anti-UAV systems from partners like the Netherlands and Germany. Publicize UAF successes (repelled assaults, aid packages) and international support to counter RUF narratives and boost morale, while acknowledging the severe impact of RUF terror strikes on civilians and coordinating humanitarian relief.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Surge all-source ISR assets (IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT) to Dyleyevka (Donetsk Oblast), Petrovske/Hrekivka (Luhansk Oblast), and Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts. Immediately verify RUF claims of capture/presence, particularly the claim of UAF fleeing Yalta. Assess tactical implications, particularly regarding UAF logistical routes (Konstantinovka) and any northern incursions.
IMMEDIATE: Conduct urgent, detailed BDA on all ballistic missile strikes in Dnipro and reported RUF FPV drone strikes. Prioritize specific targets (e.g., railway lines, civilian institutions, UAF deployment areas, ammo depots) and the extent of damage to inform AD and force protection. Identify munition types (e.g., Iskander) and new RUF drone tactics.
HIGH: Prioritize all-source ISR (IMINT, SIGINT, EWINT) on Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Focus on the border areas to confirm RUF "buffer zone" claims or any build-up for a larger offensive. Determine precise intent behind persistent RUF reconnaissance UAV activity and ground probing.
HIGH: Conduct detailed SIGINT and HUMINT on RUF communication lines and troop movements on the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Sumy/Kharkiv axes, specifically to identify any further attempts to cross rivers, establish new bridgeheads, or intensify special forces operations or larger ground movements.
HIGH: Monitor RUF and pro-RUF IO channels for any further shifts in narrative regarding domestic security and "pro-Ukrainian" activities in RF territory, as this indicates RUF's strategic intent to justify internal actions and frame the conflict. Pay close attention to mockery of civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, the amplification of geopolitical narratives (Israel-Iran, NATO), and explicit dehumanizing rhetoric.
MEDIUM: Investigate reported damage incidents in Crimea. Determine if they are results of UAF strikes, internal sabotage, or accidents, to inform future planning.

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

URGENT: Maintain highest AD readiness across Kyiv, Dnipro, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Poltava, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Prioritize assets capable of intercepting ballistic missiles (e.g., Iskander) and counter-UAV systems, given the recent surge in attacks and confirmed high civilian casualties. Ensure rapid re-engagement capabilities and saturation defense.
HIGH: Review and enhance force protection measures for all critical infrastructure, especially railway hubs and lines, energy facilities, military training facilities, temporary deployment areas, schools, and hospitals in central and eastern Ukraine, given the direct hits on civilian infrastructure and a train, and UAF facilities. Disperse valuable assets and explore hardening measures, including anti-drone tunnels for logistics routes.
HIGH: Advise civilian populations in threatened areas to strictly adhere to air raid warnings and seek reinforced shelter. Communicate clearly why certain conventional shelters may no longer be sufficient against powerful ballistic strikes.
CRITICAL: Accelerate the delivery and integration of the 600,000 drones and 100 anti-UAV radars pledged by the Netherlands, and leverage the €8.3 billion from Germany for AD and other critical needs. Prioritize training personnel on these new systems.

6.3. Ground Forces:

IMMEDIATE: Confirm or deny RUF claims of Dyleyevka and Petrovske/Hrekivka capture, and UAF fleeing Yalta. If confirmed, immediately reinforce defensive positions in those sectors and establish counter-attack plans, particularly focusing on protecting logistics routes to Konstantinovka.
URGENT: Continue to reinforce defensive positions on the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia axes, specifically focusing on preventing further RUF breakthroughs and consolidating existing lines. Be prepared for increased special forces activity targeting logistics.
URGENT: Elevate readiness and reinforce defensive lines and fortifications in specific border areas of Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts (including near any claimed "buffer zones"). Be prepared for intensified RUF ground activity or a limited new offensive, following the increased reconnaissance UAV activity and RUF claims/assaults. Prioritize defensive engineering efforts shown by 23rd Engineer Regiment and anti-drone tunnel construction in Zaporizhzhia.
HIGH: Continue accelerating training programs and recruitment efforts for drone units and EW teams, emphasizing their critical role in both ISR and offensive/defensive operations. Leverage newly acquired FPV drones effectively and prioritize drone repair capabilities.
HIGH: Enhance protection against RUF special forces operating in rear areas, particularly around critical infrastructure, energy facilities, and military facilities. Implement more robust check-points and patrols.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Issue rapid, verifiable counter-narratives to RUF claims of Dyleyevka, Petrovske/Hrekivka, Sumy "buffer zone" capture/presence, and UAF fleeing Yalta. Provide transparent, evidence-based updates on UAF defensive operations, highlighting repelled assaults.
URGENT: Launch a globally coordinated IO campaign to highlight Russia's deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure, including schools, hospitals, railways, and energy facilities, and the escalating number of civilian casualties, particularly children. Expose RUF's continuous war crimes and its blatant disregard for international humanitarian law, particularly the "mockery" from RUF channels of civilian suffering. Use the Dnipro casualty figures to underscore the brutality.
HIGH: Publicize UAF successes in drone procurement (Netherlands aid, German aid) and fortification building, and drone repair capabilities. Emphasize Ukraine's resilience, innovation, and growing self-sufficiency in defense, while also acknowledging the vital role of international support.
HIGH: Counter RUF narratives that attempt to demoralize Ukrainian population or frame the conflict as an inevitable defeat. Reiterate Ukraine's principled stand for peace based on territorial integrity and sovereignty.
HIGH: Collaborate with international partners to fact-check and expose RUF's internal propaganda related to domestic security and "pro-Ukrainian" threats, demonstrating their use of these narratives to justify repression and sustained aggression. Proactively address RUF attempts to link Ukraine to broader geopolitical crises (Israel-Iran) and their claims of "failed isolation."
HIGH: Continue active diplomatic engagement at international forums (e.g., NATO summit) to secure comprehensive support, including advanced AD systems and long-range capabilities, while managing expectations regarding specific membership timelines.