Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 232115Z JUN 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Kyiv Oblast: Confirmed nine (9) fatalities from night attack, including an 11-year-old girl and her mother. Multi-story residential building fire and significant structural damage in Shevchenkivskyi District, consistent with a direct ballistic missile strike. New video footage confirms multiple explosions across Kyiv during the night-time attack. KMVA reports 14 hours of ongoing liquidation of attack consequences in Shevchenkivskyi district, indicating extensive damage and cleanup efforts. Air raid alert due to UAV threat. New reports indicate 2 RUF Shahed UAVs approaching Kyiv from Brovary area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Odesa Oblast: Confirmed three (3) fatalities in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi from a RUF attack. Colonelcassad (RUF source) provides photos and videos of the damaged military lyceum in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, showing "army boxes" near the entrance, suggesting RUF intent to frame the civilian target as military. Threat of RUF strike UAVs. New reports confirm 16 Shahed UAVs inbound to Odesa Oblast, 12 RUF Shahed UAVs approaching Rybakovka from Tendry area, and 7 approaching Chornomorsk, with 1 confirmed targeting Odesa City. UAF claims an incoming Shahed has been intercepted over Odesa. New reports indicate Shahed UAVs are now turning from Pivdenne towards Odesa, with 8 additional Shaheds targeting Pivdenne. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Sumy Oblast: Air Force of Ukraine reports repeated launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) on Sumy Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ reports RUF UAV attack on Putyvl community, Sumy Oblast, resulting in 11 civilian casualties. RUF sources claim "Lancet" UAVs are destroying Abrams tanks in Sumy Oblast, with drone footage showing a tank hit and burning, displaying a ZALA logo. RUF also claims an Iskander strike hit a UAF mobilized training center in the Sumy area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim on Lancet, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on Abrams specific identification, HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim on Iskander strike). RUF sources continue to claim "battles in Sumy Oblast." Air Force of Ukraine reports threat of RUF strike UAVs (Shahed) in Sumy Oblast. STERNENKO (UAF) reports threat of Shaheds from the north, moving through Sumy Oblast. ASTRA reports a RUF conscript received a gunshot wound on RUF positions approximately 1 km from the border, potentially indicating UAF cross-border activity or internal RUF incidents. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air Force of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. MoD Russia posts video claiming an enemy UAV control post was destroyed by 'Baba-Yaga' drone, with thermal imaging footage showing explosions. Zaporizhzhia OVA reports ongoing FPV-drone and artillery strikes by RUF on Nikopol district and Pokrovsk community, causing damage to infrastructure. Два майора posts video of combat in Kamenske, Novoandreevka, Malinovka in Zaporizhzhia front, suggesting ongoing ground engagements in these areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kharkiv Oblast: UAF forces (OTU "Kharkiv") release video showing two RUF personnel surrendering to a Ukrainian drone, and multiple drone strikes on RUF personnel and equipment. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of "clearing Russian positions" by 15th Brigade of NGU "Kara-Dag" in Kharkiv region. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports RUF attack on Zolochiv community. Air Force of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Donetsk Axis (Pokrovsk Direction): RUF (39th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, "Kaira" operators) claim significant "coptercide" (drone destruction) operations. MoD Russia video claims disruption of personnel rotation and elimination of materiel in Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka and Aleksandro-Kalinovo directions. STERNENKO (UAF source) releases video showing UAF 55th OABr (Artillery Brigade) "eliminating" RUF personnel on a motorcycle via drone strike. Два майора posts a photo of a map with "Pokrovsk direction" indicating active RUF interest. Операция Z posts video of "fierce battles near Pokrovsk," emphasizing high-intensity combat. Военкор Котенок posts map of Dnepropetrovsk/Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeyskoye) direction (left flank) and Novopavlivka direction. Военкор Котенок posts map of Siversk direction, indicating RUF interest in continued advances towards Siversk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Chernihiv Direction: RUF source "Дневник Десантника" reports activity on the Chernihiv direction. Air Force of Ukraine reports RUF reconnaissance UAV activity and threat of RUF strike UAVs (Shahed) in Chernihiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kursk Oblast, RF: TASS and ASTRA report nine (9) UAF UAVs were destroyed over Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Belgorod Oblast, RF: TASS and ASTRA report nine (9) UAF UAVs were destroyed over Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Rostov Oblast, RF: UAF (SSO ZSU, General Staff) confirms successful strike on "Atlas" combine oil depot. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Moscow Oblast, RF: Moscow Mayor Sobyanin claims RUF AD repelled a UAV attack targeting Moscow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Crimea, RUFO: Два майора posts a video from Crimea discussing coastal defense and anti-drone operations by the 'Espanyola' detachment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Donetsk Oblast, RUFO (Occupied): ASTRA reports a Russian plane dropped a half-ton aerial bomb on houses near occupied Dokuchaevsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Middle East Region (Qatar): Qatar has opened its airspace. RUF sources now celebrating Iranian "victory" over the US. Alex Parker Returns posts photos and videos of alleged celebrations in Iran regarding a "victory" over the US. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Overall: RUF continues its strategy of targeting civilian infrastructure in urban centers (Kyiv, Odesa, Sumy, and Nikopol), with confirmed civilian fatalities. Kinetic activity, including KABs, FPV-drones, and artillery, persists on the Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk axes, along with claims of successful Lancet and Iskander strikes against high-value targets (Abrams, training centers, UAF UAV control points). RUF's focus on degrading UAF force generation is evident. UAF continues deep strikes into RUF territory and effective tactical drone operations. The highly active and increasingly nuanced RUF information environment continues to manage the narrative of a fabricated global conflict, now framing it as a "victory" for Iran and a return to "peace," suggesting a rapid shift to control the aftermath of their prior fabrications. The deployment of additional Shahed UAVs towards Odesa and Pivdenne indicates continued RUF intent to conduct multi-wave drone attacks on southern Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

• Middle East (Qatar): Qatar has opened its airspace, indicating de-escalation of previous flight restrictions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• No new significant weather or environmental factors affecting operations in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF):
  • Air Force of Ukraine: Continues to provide alerts for KAB launches and missile threats. Reports RUF reconnaissance UAV activity. Reports threat of RUF strike UAVs in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. Reports Shahed UAVs in Poltava Oblast, moving south. Reports 16 Shahed UAVs over the Black Sea, 12 towards Rybakovka, 7 towards Chornomorsk, and 1 targeting Odesa. Confirms a Shahed UAV interception over Odesa. Reports 2 Shahed UAVs passing Brovary and heading towards Kyiv. New reports indicate Shahed UAVs from Pivdenne are now turning towards Odesa, and an additional 8 are targeting Pivdenne. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kyiv City Military Administration (KCMA): Confirmed the 9th fatality in Kyiv, an 11-year-old girl. Reports 14 hours of ongoing liquidation of attack consequences. Announces air raid alert due to UAV threat in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Office of the General Prosecutor: Confirmed the recovery of the 11-year-old girl's body in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Presidential Activities: President Zelenskyy publicly reacted to the strike on Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. Zelenskyy held audiences with King Charles III and met with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and UK parliamentary speakers. Zelenskyy meets with Ukrainian defenders training in the UK under Operation Interflex, and thanks Chatham House. Zelenskyy confirms agreement with UK for joint drone production. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • SBU: Head of SBU claims a Polish pensioner planned to liquidate President Zelenskyy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Operational Security: Serhiy Flesch (likely Ukrainian source) reports a new Shahed warhead filled with a viscous mixture. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration: Reports on ongoing FPV-drone and artillery strikes by RUF on Nikopol district and Pokrovsk community. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Desantno-Shturmovi Viyska ZS Ukrainy (Air Assault Forces): Released video showing D-30 artillery in action. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • OTU "Kharkiv": Released video demonstrating successful drone operations leading to the capture of two RUF soldiers and drone strikes on RUF personnel and equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF 55th OABr: STERNENKO releases video of drone strike on RUF personnel. STERNENKO reports UAF 1129th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment destroyed 7 RUF UAVs. STERNENKO posts video of a drone strike "depriving a Russian soldier of his leg." STERNENKO reports RUF destroyed a clinic treating disabled children and military personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ukrainian IO: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Ukraine has launched serial production of the "Sapsan" OTRK ballistic missile. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of "clearing Russian positions" by 15th Brigade of NGU "Kara-Dag" in Kharkiv region. Оперативний ЗСУ publishes video of B-2 Spirit bombers taking off for airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and returning, amplifying a RUF narrative. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Naftogaz of Ukraine won an international arbitration court case against Gazprom. Оперативний ЗСУ amplifies Trump's "time for peace" statement. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a photo of Kirill Veres, Commander of the K-2 Unmanned Systems Regiment, with a quote: "Never fantasized about the 91st borders." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of a RUF evacuation vehicle being hit by an FPV drone from two angles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна posts an updated map of air raid alerts and clarifies areas with enemy drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Releases video of drone footage showing successful strikes on enemy strongholds and personnel. Confirms strike on "Atlas" oil depot in Rostov Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Nikolaevskiy Vanёk reports Shahed UAVs from Pivdenne turning towards Odesa, and 8 more targeting Pivdenne. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Later, Nikolaevskiy Vanёk reports only 2 Shaheds remaining in the south, both near Pivdenne. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RBC-Ukraine posts video of an expert discussing the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a heat map of Kyiv showing Shevchenkivskyi district as most targeted. ASTRA reports UAF struck "Susem Forestery" building in Bryansk Oblast, RF. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posts "170km from the front line." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Russian Forces (RUF):
  • Kinetic Operations:
    • UAV Operations: RUF milbloggers claim "Lancets continue to burn out Abrams tanks in Sumy Oblast." RUF (39th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, "Kaira" operators) claims successful anti-drone operations (coptercide) in the Pokrovsk direction. Оперативний ЗСУ reports RUF UAV attack on Putyvl community, Sumy Oblast, resulting in 11 civilian casualties. Поддубный (RUF milblogger) claims successful destruction of a UAF UAV control point in Zaporizhzhia Oblast via artillery, guided by a "Baba Yaga" drone. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin claims RUF AD repelled a UAV attack targeting Moscow. MoD Russia posts video claiming an enemy UAV control post was destroyed by 'Baba-Yaga' drone. RBC-Ukraine reports UAF warning of new wave of RUF Shahed attacks from September, with up to 700 Shaheds per day. TASS and ASTRA report nine (9) UAF UAVs were destroyed over Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • KAB Launches: Air Force of Ukraine reports repeated KAB launches on Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv Oblasts. ASTRA reports a Russian plane dropped a half-ton aerial bomb on houses near occupied Dokuchaevsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Missile Threat: RUF claims an Iskander strike hit a UAF mobilized training center in the Sumy area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Naval Exercises: TASS video reports a RUF Naval striking group destroyed a detachment of enemy warships in the Baltic Sea during exercises. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Ground Operations: RUF milbloggers claim "battles in Sumy Oblast". "Дневник Десантника" reports on the Chernihiv direction. Два майора posts video of combat in Kamenske, Novoandreevka, Malinovka in Zaporizhzhia front. Операция Z posts video of intense combat near Pokrovsk. Два майора posts photos showing the Pokrovsk direction. Военкор Котенок posts maps of the Dnepropetrovsk/Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeyskoye) direction and Novopavlivka direction. Два майора posts a fundraising video for Kherson direction. Военкор Котенок posts map of Siversk direction, indicating continued RUF interest. «Зона СВО» posts a video showing destroyed military vehicles in a post-battle scene, suggesting recent combat activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Information Operations (IO):
    • Casualty Claims: TASS reports a child was injured in Dnipryany, Kherson Oblast. ASTRA, citing local authorities, reports 9 fatalities in Kyiv (amplifying UAF information). Оперативний ЗСУ reports RUF UAV attack on Putyvl community, Sumy Oblast, resulting in 11 civilian casualties. RBC-Ukraine reports the number of fatalities in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi has increased to three. STERNENKO reports RUF destroyed a clinic where disabled children and former POWs were treated. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad posts photo claiming a British mercenary, Benjamin Leo Burgess, was liquidated in the SMO zone, providing personal details. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Global Diversion: Alex Parker Returns states "Third World War is over." TASS reports Trump called Iran's response weak and hopes for peace. TASS reports Trump thanked Iran for timely notification of attack. RUF sources (Rybar/Colonelcassad/Alex Parker Returns) are now celebrating Iranian "victory" with street celebrations (video). Alex Parker Returns posts photos and videos celebrating "Victory Day over the USA" in Iran, featuring street convoys with flags and political protests, implying successful Iranian operations against US. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Операция Z reports that the US Army, in attacking Iran's Isfahan nuclear center, intentionally avoided striking buildings with research reactors, citing Bloomberg, further shaping the narrative of a controlled engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Irrelevant Content: Moscow news reports on scientists warning of bacteria risk from smartphone use in toilets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Anti-Serbian Narrative: Военкор Котенок posts a message expressing frustration that "ally" Vucic turned out to be a "scoundrel" for allegedly selling shells to "ukronazis." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Krokus City Hall Attack: Alex Parker Returns comments on the second anniversary of the "march of justice," mentioning the Krokus attack and blaming "Khokhols" (Ukrainians) for incursions into Kursk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Mocking Ukraine/UAF: "Дневник Десантника" posts "Ukrainians don't sleep," signaling continued RUF pressure. Colonelcassad posts photos with captions framing President Zelenskyy's statements about civilian casualties in Kyiv as "fake news," attempting to deny RUF responsibility for strikes on civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Promoting Military Might and Cohesion: Дневник Десантника posts a film asking what makes a soldier confident in battle. «Зона СВО» posts a video with a somber, reflective mood showing destroyed military vehicles, captioned "Good night Friends ❤️🇷🇺💪," potentially used to invoke resilience or camaraderie. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Verify the veracity and actual impact of claims regarding the Middle East situation, especially the alleged Iranian celebrations of "victory" over the US, and the Bloomberg report cited by RUF. Determine if these are genuine expressions of public sentiment or part of a coordinated RUF information operation to manage the fabricated crisis. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: ALL-SOURCE IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT on international diplomatic/military channels, OSINT for independent verification of visual media).
• HIGH: Verify RUF claims of Lancet UAVs destroying Abrams tanks in Sumy Oblast. Assess the visual evidence presented, and determine if the tank is indeed an Abrams, and if the destruction is consistent with a Lancet strike. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT).
• HIGH: Verify claims regarding the new Shahed warhead composition and its incendiary properties. Determine if this represents a significant upgrade in RUF drone lethality. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA, OSINT).
• HIGH: Verify RUF claim of an Iskander strike hitting a UAF mobilized training center in the Sumy area. Obtain BDA to confirm target type and effectiveness. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT, BDA).
• HIGH: Verify RUF claim of successful artillery destruction of a UAF UAV control point in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT, BDA).
• HIGH: Assess RUF's projected Shahed production capacity (700/day from September). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, TECHINT, OSINT).
• HIGH: Confirm the reported drop of a half-ton aerial bomb by a Russian plane on houses near occupied Dokuchaevsk. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT).
• HIGH: Verify RUF claim of a British mercenary, Benjamin Leo Burgess, being liquidated in the SMO zone. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Confirm the reported UAF FPV drone strike on a RUF evacuation vehicle ("буханка"). Obtain BDA on casualties and vehicle type. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT, BDA).
• HIGH: Verify RUF claims of no civilian infrastructure being targeted in Kyiv, as stated by Colonelcassad, against evidence from UAF. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT, HUMINT).
• MEDIUM: Assess any observable changes in RUF military doctrine or training based on the Baltic Sea naval exercises featuring Iskander-M systems. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, IMINT).
• MEDIUM: Assess the impact of the requested 14.5-year sentence for former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov and the recent sentencing of the second Aksyonov assassination plot suspect on RUF internal cohesion and anti-corruption efforts. Also, the impact of sentencing a student for "insulting inscriptions about Putin" on internal dissent, and the public reaction to "cattle-like" funerals. Investigate implications of "corporate conflicts hindering defense industry." (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
• MEDIUM: Evaluate the significance of the ASTRA/Reuters report on Iran's dissatisfaction with Russian support and a request for aid from Khamenei to Putin. Assess if this indicates real friction or is part of a deeper RUF IO strategy. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT on diplomatic channels).
• MEDIUM: Assess the tactical purpose and effectiveness of the heavily modified vehicle with metal rods/spikes. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT).
• LOW: Verify TASS claim of a child injured in Dnipryany, Kherson Oblast, due to UAF shelling. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, OSINT).
• LOW: Assess the significance of the appeal court upholding the sentence of dissident Alexander Skobov on internal Russian dissent. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Air/Missile Capabilities: RUF continues to conduct ballistic missile strikes on civilian infrastructure in Kyiv, leading to multiple fatalities (now 9 confirmed). They maintain the capability for widespread KAB launches on frontline oblasts (Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv) and have dropped a half-ton aerial bomb on civilian houses in occupied Dokuchaevsk. RUF is actively employing Lancet UAVs and claiming successful destruction of high-value targets (Abrams tanks). RUF also claims successful Iskander precision strikes on UAF training centers. There are indications of new Shahed warhead technology (viscous incendiary mixture) designed for increased destructive effect. RUF also claims successful destruction of UAF UAV control points, with video evidence from MoD Russia. RUF naval exercises, featuring the Iskander-M, continue to project strategic strike capabilities. RUF AD systems maintain capability to intercept UAVs targeting Russian territory (Moscow, Kursk, Belgorod). RUF continues significant Shahed operational capability, with 16 inbound to Odesa Oblast, 12 to Rybakovka, 7 to Chornomorsk, 2 to Kyiv, and new reports of Shaheds turning towards Odesa from Pivdenne, with an additional 8 targeting Pivdenne. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RBC-Ukraine reports RUF capacity to produce up to 700 Shaheds per day from September. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF reporting on RUF capability)
• Ground Capabilities: RUF continues to engage in ground operations, with claims of UAF shelling in Kherson Oblast. They are also utilizing motorcycles for reconnaissance and assault in the South Donetsk direction. They continue to claim "battles" in Sumy and report on Kharkiv direction. New RUF MoD video indicates continued targeting of UAF personnel and materiel in Donetsk. RUF is conducting ground engagements in Zaporizhzhia (Kamenske, Novoandreevka, Malinovka) and continued operations in Belogorovka. RUF coastal defense and anti-drone operations are active in Crimea. RUF milbloggers are posting videos of intense combat near Pokrovsk, emphasizing their ground offensive capabilities. RUF continues fundraising for tactical units on the Kherson direction. RUF is promoting film on soldier motivation. RUF may be deploying heavily modified vehicles with metal rods/spikes for unknown tactical purposes. RUF milbloggers continue to show destroyed military vehicles in post-battle scenes, indicating recent intense engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF maintains interest in the Siversk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Logistical Capabilities: Sustained air and missile operations, including naval exercises, indicate robust logistical support for their forces. Observation of armored logistical vehicles supports this. RUF milblogger comments on corporate conflicts hindering industry may indicate long-term sustainment challenges, but current operations are unaffected. RUF claims satellite navigation suppression, suggesting investment in EW capabilities. RUF continues to show efforts in providing tactical gear to frontline soldiers, indicating sustainment of individual equipment. The continued solicitation of donations for drones and supplies by Дневник Десантника suggests that informal/volunteer supply lines remain a component of RUF sustainment for some tactical units. RBC-Ukraine's report of 700 Shaheds/day production capacity implies a robust and growing domestic military-industrial complex for drone production. Domodedovo airport is experiencing delays from Middle East conflict, indicating some minor logistical impact for RUF, though not military directly. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Information Warfare Capabilities: RUF's IO remains agile and is now significantly escalating its blame-shifting and global diversion efforts to unprecedented levels, but with a new pivot towards declaring a "resolution" to its manufactured Middle East conflict. They are immediately fabricating and disseminating claims of UAF shelling causing civilian casualties (Dnipryany, Putyvl), and attempting to deny responsibility for strikes on civilian targets in Kyiv. They continue to amplify claims of successful strikes (Lancet vs. Abrams, Iskander vs. training center, UAV control point) to boost morale and project strength. The "US-Iran War" global diversion continues, with **new, unverified claims (F-35 shot down in Tabriz, IAEA reports of Fordo damage, Iran suspending IAEA cooperation, Hormuz Strait threats, US expectation of Iran retaliation, new visual "evidence" from Rybar of Iranian success, a strike on Evin Prison attributed to Zionists, active dissemination of Iran striking US bases, Iran preparing for a two-year conflict, and most critically, claims of Iranian missile strikes on US bases in Qatar and Iraq with visual "evidence" of explosions/lights in the sky over Doha/other locations, and now claims of Israeli Air Force strikes on Tehran) and the use of manipulated media to create an illusion of a rapidly escalating global conflict, leveraging real-world events like Qatar's airspace and UAE's airspace closures. Crucially, RUF has now directly accused Ukraine of orchestrating the Krokus City Hall attack, a major escalation in its narrative, with the Investigative Committee concluding its probe and Rybar reinforcing the "customer identified" claim. RUF is leveraging internal judicial processes (Timur Ivanov, Alexander Skobov, student sentencing, Aksyonov assassination plot, funeral complaints, corporate conflict discussions, parent recognition) for domestic control narratives. RUF is attempting to sow diplomatic discord by falsely accusing third-party nations (Serbia) of supplying weapons to Ukraine, with renewed statements from Zakharova and Военкор Котенок. They are actively mocking President Zelenskyy to undermine his international legitimacy. They are also utilizing children in war-related activities (masking nets) to normalize the conflict domestically. RUF is attempting to invert the narrative on body repatriation. RUF is using irrelevant or human-interest stories as distractions. RUF is introducing new domestic narratives on migration and crime to divert attention. UPDATED: RUF is directly fabricating social media 'clashes' between Trump and Medvedev, with Medvedev threatening nuclear strikes related to the fabricated Iran conflict. RUF is now promoting an alleged Pentagon confirmation (via TASS) of the Iranian strike on Al Udeid, lending apparent credibility to their broader, fabricated narrative. RUF is claiming a conversation between Iranian and Russian Defense Ministers, implying coordination and intent. The fluctuating narrative on the effectiveness of the Iranian strikes and oil prices suggests an nuanced RUF IO campaign attempting to control multiple aspects of the fabricated crisis. The RUF milblogger "Военкор Котенок" now explicitly suggests the US-Iran conflict is a coordinated "agreement of the elites" to "save face," a significant shift in RUF messaging that attempts to control the narrative by revealing it as a charade, rather than letting it run wild, but still ensuring the narrative remains controlled by RUF. RUF IO is also promoting claims of captured Western military equipment (grenade launcher). RUF is using satellite imagery of Al Udeid Airbase to attempt to prove no damage. RUF is portraying Trump's statements about the Iran strike as a victory for peace or a weak Iranian response, depending on the desired narrative. Alex Parker Returns explicitly states "Third World War is over" to frame the swift resolution of the fabricated Middle East conflict. RUF sources are now celebrating a perceived Iranian "victory" related to the strikes, including videos of street celebrations. Alex Parker Returns posts anti-migrant rhetoric, linking it to alleged "genocide of Russians." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Intentions: RUF intends to:
  • Maximize Civilian Casualties and Psychological Impact: Continued ballistic missile strikes on Kyiv's civilian infrastructure, resulting in increased fatalities (9, including an 11-year-old child), and the new UAV strike on Putyvl with 11 civilian casualties, and FPV-drone/artillery strikes on Nikopol confirm this intent. The increased fatalities in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi (3) also confirm this. The dropping of a half-ton aerial bomb on civilian homes in occupied Dokuchaevsk further indicates this intent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Degrade UAF Capabilities and Force Generation: Claims of Lancet destroying Abrams and Iskander hitting UAF training centers and UAV control points indicate RUF's continued intent to target high-value UAF equipment and the critical process of force generation. The reported new Shahed warhead suggests an intent to increase the lethality and destructive power of their drone attacks. The projected production of up to 700 Shaheds/day further reinforces this long-term intent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Maintain Global Diversion & Blame-Shift (CRITICALLY ESCALATED, now with pivot to "resolution"): *Significantly escalate the fabricated "US-Iran War" / "Israel-Iran" narrative (with new "evidence" including claims of attacks on Iran/Israel, unsubstantiated claims of Israeli Air Force strikes on Tehran, claims of imminent Iranian retaliation, reports of a two-year conflict, and most critically, claims of Iranian missile strikes on US bases in Qatar and Iraq and explosions in Doha/other locations, leveraging the Qatar and UAE airspace closures and claims of satellite navigation suppression) and, most critically, directly blame Ukraine for the Krokus City Hall attack (reinforced by "customer identified" claims and Investigative Committee findings). This aims to divert international attention from Ukraine and create pretexts for further escalatory actions. The fabricated Trump/Medvedev interaction with nuclear threats indicates an intent to escalate the perceived stakes of this diversion. The rapid amplification of the Pentagon "confirmation" of Iranian strikes, while omitting details of no US casualties, is intended to legitimize the broader fabricated conflict. The claimed call between Iranian and Russian Defense Ministers indicates intent to portray strategic alignment. RUF's fluctuating narrative on the effectiveness of the Iranian strikes and the new nuanced messaging from Военкор Котенок suggests an intent to control perceptions of success/failure in the fabricated conflict while maintaining RUF's informational dominance, and now declaring the "Third World War is over" and celebrating "Iranian victory" to control its resolution and dismiss its prior fabrications. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Project Military Strength: Naval exercises in the Baltic Sea, displays of new military graduates, and showcasing Chinese rocket launches are intended to project military readiness and capability to a broader audience. Diplomatic efforts with African nations (Mali) show an intent to expand influence and arms sales. Continued engagement with US on "irritants" indicates a desire to manage or shape diplomatic relations. Interest in advanced drone tech. RUF reporting on US/Danish NATO drone center indicates focus on NATO capabilities. RUF delivering tactical gear to frontline soldiers indicates efforts to boost internal morale and project support for frontline personnel. RUF coastal defense activities in Crimea indicate an intent to project defensive readiness. RUF IO is also promoting claims of captured Western military equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Sow Discord and Undermine Support: Continue to accuse third-party nations of supplying weapons to Ukraine (e.g., Serbia, with renewed statements from Zakharova and Военкор Котенок) to disrupt supply chains and alienate Ukraine's partners. Actively undermine President Zelenskyy's international standing. Efforts to promote Russian comedians despite being on Ukrainian threat lists indicate intent to undermine Ukrainian cultural security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Reinforce Domestic Control: Leverage internal legal cases, irrelevant domestic news, and child indoctrination to maintain control over the Russian information space and distract from military setbacks. Introducing narratives on internal issues like migration/crime to justify security measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• RUF: Continued use of ballistic missiles against civilian targets in Kyiv, resulting in increased casualties. New civilian casualties from UAV strike in Sumy Oblast and now 3 fatalities in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. Potential deployment of Shahed drones with new, highly incendiary warheads. Increased claims of Lancet success against high-value targets (Abrams tanks). Claimed Iskander strikes on UAF training centers indicate a dangerous shift towards degrading force generation. Claimed destruction of UAF UAV control points further emphasizes targeting of UAF force multipliers, with video evidence. Active anti-drone operations are noted on the Pokrovsk direction. The intensification and legal formalization (Investigative Committee statement, Rybar's "customer identified") of blaming Ukraine for Krokus City Hall is a critical adaptation in their IO. New MoD Russia video indicates continued focus on disrupting UAF personnel rotation and eliminating materiel in Donetsk direction, implying ongoing small-unit tactical adaptation. Drone footage showing RUF tactical activity near anti-tank obstacles. Increased FPV-drone and artillery use on Zaporizhzhia (Nikopol). RUF claims successful AD against UAVs over Moscow, Kursk, and Belgorod. RUF milbloggers claiming capture of territory with foreign mercenaries. RUF is conducting ground engagements in Zaporizhzhia (Kamenske, Novoandreevka, Malinovka) and continued operations in Belogorovka. Rapid, coordinated dissemination of claims of Iranian missile strikes on US bases in Qatar and Iraq with visual "evidence," indicating a highly adaptable IO apparatus capable of leveraging alleged real-world events for strategic purposes. RUF sources reporting satellite navigation suppression over Persian Gulf, indicating EW capabilities. RUF sources are also rapidly fabricating and amplifying claims of Israeli Air Force strikes on Tehran. RUF is now promoting Pentagon confirmation of Iranian strikes on Al Udeid (via TASS) as part of their narrative. RUF is asserting its position on nuclear non-proliferation in the context of the fabricated Iran conflict (Medvedev). RUF coastal defense and anti-drone operations in Crimea indicate adaptation to protect vital assets. The RUF milblogger "Военкор Котенок" now explicitly states the US-Iran conflict is a coordinated "agreement of the elites," indicating a tactical adaptation in RUF's IO narrative to manage perceptions of the fabricated conflict, and is now attempting to quickly close this narrative by claiming "victory" and "peace." RUF milbloggers are posting videos of intense combat near Pokrovsk, suggesting continued high-intensity ground operations. RUF is dropping half-ton aerial bombs on occupied civilian areas, indicating a willingness to use destructive munitions indiscriminately. RUF is using satellite imagery to deny damage to Al Udeid. RUF is using Trump's statements to frame the Middle East conflict as a controlled, weak event, declaring it "over." RUF sources are now celebrating an "Iranian victory" related to the strikes. RUF may be deploying heavily modified vehicles with metal rods/spikes for unknown tactical purposes. RUF has adapted its IO to specifically deny civilian targeting in Kyiv, despite evidence. RUF is deploying new Shahed waves to Odesa from Pivdenne. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF: Rapid confirmation of civilian casualties and immediate public reaction by President Zelenskyy and local authorities to RUF strikes demonstrates adaptation in public information and consequence management. Ukrainian channels are amplifying technical intelligence on RUF munitions (new Shahed warhead), indicating a focus on counter-adaptation. SBU's claims of preventing assassination attempts against multiple high-value targets indicate effective counter-intelligence adaptation. UAF's continued tactical success in capturing RUF personnel using drones (Kharkiv direction) demonstrates offensive adaptation. New public testimonial from Azov Regiment soldier highlights UAF resilience and defiance against RUF attempts to demoralize. UAF 55th OABr's drone strike on RUF personnel shows effective tactical engagement. New UAF General Staff videos show effective drone-guided strikes on RUF positions. UAF claims serial production of Sapsan OTRK, a significant strategic adaptation. UAF confirmed deep strike on Rostov oil depot. UAF 1129th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment reporting successful destruction of 7 RUF UAVs. UAF 15th Brigade of NGU "Kara-Dag" conducting "clearing operations" in Kharkiv, indicating active counter-offensive/offensive tactical adaptations. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video clearly stating that "The enemy can and must be beaten on his territory," indicating offensive adaptation in strategic messaging. STERNENKO's new video shows continued tactical drone effectiveness against RUF personnel. Оперативний ЗСУ reports airstrike on a RUF command post in occupied Kherson Oblast, indicating effective UAF targeting of enemy C2. RBC-Ukraine's proactive debunking of rumors regarding declining air defense effectiveness indicates adaptation in counter-IO. UAF continues deep strikes into Bryansk Oblast, targeting RUF forces. UAF won a legal case against Gazprom, demonstrating legal and economic adaptation. UAF reporting on downed Shaheds (Odesa) demonstrates adaptive AD response. UAF is using grim drone footage of fallen RUF soldiers to create counter-propaganda. UAF confirmed an agreement with UK for joint drone production, indicating a strategic adaptation for long-term capability building. UAF is using FPV drones to strike RUF evacuation vehicles, demonstrating adaptive tactical targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• RUF: Sustained air and missile operations, including naval exercises, indicate robust logistical sustainment. Observation of armored logistical vehicles supports this. Internal reporting on "corporate conflicts hindering industry" suggests potential long-term, systemic issues, but no immediate impact on current operations is observed. RUF claims satellite navigation suppression, suggesting investment in EW capabilities. RUF continues to show efforts in providing tactical gear to frontline soldiers, indicating sustainment of individual equipment. RUF coastal defense and anti-drone operations in Crimea indicate sustainment of force protection measures. The continued solicitation of donations for drones and supplies by Дневник Десантника suggests that informal/volunteer supply lines remain a component of RUF sustainment for some tactical units. RBC-Ukraine's report of 700 Shaheds/day production capacity implies significant current and future production capabilities for drones. Domodedovo airport experiencing delays from Middle East conflict implies some minor civilian logistics disruption. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF: NATO Secretary General's confirmation of €35 billion in weapons aid for 2025 significantly strengthens long-term UAF sustainment. Humanitarian aid from Germany for communal services in Zaporizhzhia further supports civilian infrastructure sustainment. UAF claim of serial production of Sapsan OTRK, if true, significantly boosts domestic sustainment of long-range strike capability. Successful deep strike on Rostov oil depot impacts RUF logistics. Continued fundraising efforts (Nikolaevskiy Vanek, STERNENKO) show citizen support for sustainment. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports the successful closure of a fundraising effort in 5 hours 25 minutes, indicating efficient and robust public support for sustainment. Agreement with UK for joint drone production significantly boosts future sustainment of UAV capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• RUF: Effective C2 in orchestrating multi-domain IO, including immediate fabrication and dissemination of battlefield claims and global diversion narratives, now with significantly escalated narratives and a pivot to a controlled "resolution" (Krokus blame, Iran war, US expectations of Iran strike, Israel strikes on Iran, claimed Iranian missile strikes on US bases in Qatar and Iraq, fabricated Trump/Medvedev nuclear threats, and claims of Israeli Air Force strikes on Tehran). Coordinated naval exercises and targeting of UAF training centers demonstrate effective C2 of large military formations and strategic targeting. Effective C2 for AD around Moscow, Kursk, and Belgorod. RUF sources claiming satellite navigation suppression over Persian Gulf, suggesting coordinated EW operations. The claimed call between Iranian and Russian Defense Ministers, if true, indicates high-level diplomatic coordination regarding the fabricated conflict. RUF is displaying tactical C2 for coastal defense and anti-drone operations in Crimea. The shift in IO narrative by Военкор Котенок, suggesting the US-Iran conflict is a "conspiracy of the elites," demonstrates RUF's sophisticated C2 over its information space, allowing for rapid narrative adjustments and resolution. RUF is using satellite imagery effectively to support its IO narratives. RUF is using Trump's statements to control the narrative of the Middle East conflict's outcome, declaring it "over" and celebrating "Iranian victory." Colonelcassad's immediate counter-narrative to Zelenskyy's statements about Kyiv civilian targets demonstrates agile C2 in countering UAF messaging. RUF demonstrates effective C2 in deploying multiple waves of Shahed UAVs from different directions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF: Effective C2 in managing crisis response, including rapid casualty reporting and presidential reaction. Effective C2 for diplomatic outreach and securing international aid. SBU's claims of preventing assassination attempts against high-value targets demonstrate effective counter-intelligence C2. Coordinated tactical drone operations for capture (Kharkiv) show effective unit-level C2. UAF 55th OABr's coordinated drone-artillery strike (implied by video) suggests effective tactical C2. UAF General Staff demonstrating effective C2 in coordinating and publicizing drone-guided strikes and deep strikes. UAF AD units demonstrate effective C2 in UAV interceptions (1129th Regiment, Odesa AD). UAF 15th Brigade of NGU "Kara-Dag" demonstrating effective tactical C2 in clearing operations. Оперативний ЗСУ reports airstrike on RUF command post in Kherson, suggesting effective UAF C2 for targeting enemy assets. RBC-Ukraine's proactive counter-IO efforts regarding AD effectiveness demonstrate effective C2 in the information domain. UAF interest in Japanese drone/AI development indicates effective C2 for strategic technological assessment and potential acquisition. UAF legal victory against Gazprom demonstrates effective C2 in international legal and economic domains. UAF is utilizing grim drone footage of fallen RUF soldiers as counter-propaganda, demonstrating C2 over its psychological operations. UAF agreement with UK for joint drone production indicates effective C2 for strategic military cooperation. UAF units are effectively using FPV drones to target RUF evacuation vehicles, demonstrating tactical C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.5. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Verify the veracity and actual impact of claims regarding the Middle East situation, especially the alleged Iranian celebrations of "victory" over the US, and the Bloomberg report cited by RUF. Determine if these are genuine expressions of public sentiment or part of a coordinated RUF information operation to manage the fabricated crisis. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: ALL-SOURCE IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT on international diplomatic/military channels, OSINT for independent verification of visual media).
• HIGH: Verify the composition and incendiary properties of the reported new Shahed warhead. This is critical for UAF AD and fire suppression. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA, OSINT, CHEMINT).
• HIGH: Confirm the destruction of Abrams tanks by Lancet UAVs in Sumy Oblast and the Iskander strike on the UAF training center. Obtain high-resolution imagery and ground truth to verify RUF claims. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Verify the destruction of a UAF UAV control point by RUF artillery in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Assess RUF's projected Shahed production capacity (700/day from September). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, TECHINT, OSINT).
• HIGH: Confirm the reported drop of a half-ton aerial bomb by a Russian plane on houses near occupied Dokuchaevsk. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT).
• HIGH: Verify RUF claim of a British mercenary, Benjamin Leo Burgess, being liquidated in the SMO zone. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Confirm the reported UAF FPV drone strike on a RUF evacuation vehicle ("буханка"). Obtain BDA on casualties and vehicle type. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT, BDA).
• HIGH: Verify RUF claims of no civilian infrastructure being targeted in Kyiv, as stated by Colonelcassad, against evidence from UAF. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT, HUMINT).
• MEDIUM: Assess any observable changes in RUF military doctrine or training based on the Baltic Sea naval exercises featuring Iskander-M systems. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, IMINT).
• MEDIUM: Assess the real-world impact of "corporate conflicts hindering domestic industry" on RUF defense production and long-term sustainment. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
• MEDIUM: Assess RUF's true capabilities and intent regarding the French CHUCK 3.0 AI drone module, including potential for acquisition, reverse engineering, or domestic development. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: TECHINT, OSINT).
• MEDIUM: Obtain detailed BDA and intelligence on RUF ground operations in Zaporizhzhia (Kamenske, Novoandreevka, Malinovka) and Belogorovka (Donetsk) to understand RUF tactical objectives and force commitment. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT, HUMINT).
• MEDIUM: Assess RUF claims of satellite navigation suppression over Persian Gulf to determine if they possess advanced EW capabilities that could be deployed against Ukraine. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, TECHINT, OSINT).
• MEDIUM: Obtain BDA and assess impact of UAF airstrike on RUF command post in occupied Kherson Oblast. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT, HUMINT).
• MEDIUM: Determine the tactical purpose and effectiveness of the heavily modified vehicle with metal rods/spikes observed in RUF-related content. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, TECHINT).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Defensive Posture: UAF AD remains active, providing real-time alerts for missile and KAB threats. Civilian authorities are providing immediate public safety updates and casualty figures. UAF AD (1129th Regiment, Odesa AD) demonstrates continued effectiveness against RUF UAVs. UAF tactical aviation activity is reported in eastern and northeastern directions. UAF AD is on alert for RUF strike UAVs (Shahed) in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. UAV threats now extending to Poltava Oblast. Shahed UAVs detected over the Black Sea heading towards Odesa, with multiple waves detected, including new deployments from Pivdenne. Air raid alerts active in Kyiv due to UAV threat, with 2 Shaheds approaching. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Crisis Response: Emergency services and local authorities are actively managing the aftermath of RUF strikes in Kyiv and Odesa, including confirming increased fatalities. Report of 11 civilian casualties from UAV strike in Sumy Oblast indicates continued need for crisis response in affected areas. Prolonged cleanup efforts in Kyiv signify ongoing commitment to post-strike recovery. Video from Toshkivka, Luhansk Oblast, highlights humanitarian crisis in areas affected by shelling. The destruction of a clinic treating disabled children and former POWs highlights a critical healthcare and humanitarian need. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Intelligence & Counter-Intelligence: SBU claims to have prevented assassination attempts on President Zelenskyy, Dmytro Gordon, Illya Bohdanov (RDK), and Denys Yermak (GUR), highlighting proactive counter-intelligence capabilities against high-value targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• International Support: Significant financial and military aid commitment from NATO partner countries for 2025 (€35 billion) demonstrates continued and robust international backing. Humanitarian aid received from German partners for communal services. President Zelenskyy's high-level meetings with King Charles III, PM Starmer, and UK parliamentary speakers reinforce diplomatic ties and aid. President Zelenskyy is scheduled to speak in the Netherlands Parliament tomorrow, indicating continued diplomatic outreach. A European poll suggests majority support for increased defense spending, nuclear shield, and support for Ukraine without US aid. NATO Secretary General's promise of €35B in military aid is prominently highlighted by UAF sources. President Zelenskyy meets with Ukrainian defenders training in the UK under Operation Interflex. President Zelenskyy confirms agreement with UK for joint drone production. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Operational Capability: UAF D-30 artillery is actively engaged, demonstrating sustained fire support capability. Successful drone operations leading to RUF personnel capture indicate effective tactical adaptation and operational initiative. New testimonial from Azov Regiment soldier demonstrates continued morale and resilience despite severe conditions and capture experiences. UAF 55th OABr's drone strike on RUF personnel shows effective tactical engagement. New UAF General Staff videos show effective drone-guided strikes on RUF positions. UAF claims serial production of Sapsan OTRK, pointing to growing domestic long-range strike capabilities. UAF confirmed deep strike on Rostov oil depot. UAF 1129th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment reporting successful destruction of 7 RUF UAVs. UAF 15th Brigade of NGU "Kara-Dag" conducting "clearing operations" in Kharkiv, indicating active counter-offensive/offensive tactical adaptations. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video clearly stating that "The enemy can and must be beaten on his territory," indicating a proactive offensive mindset. STERNENKO's new video shows continued tactical drone effectiveness against RUF personnel. Оперативний ЗСУ reports airstrike on a RUF command post in occupied Kherson Oblast, indicating effective UAF targeting of enemy C2. ASTRA reports UAF strike on RUF positions in Bryansk Oblast, demonstrating continued deep strike capabilities. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports UAF activity 170km from the front line, indicating deep operational reach. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 notes Japan's creation of a special group for drone and AI development for armed forces, indicating UAF's awareness and potential future interest in advanced military technology from partners. Naftogaz of Ukraine won an international arbitration court case against Gazprom, demonstrating effective legal action against RUF. UAF is utilizing grim drone footage of fallen RUF soldiers as counter-propaganda, demonstrating PSYOPS capability. UAF units are using FPV drones to target RUF evacuation vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Internal Governance: Ongoing anti-corruption efforts are evidenced by the suspicion reported against the Vice Prime Minister. Economic support for entrepreneurs. Recognition of civil servants in Zaporizhzhia emphasizes continued governance and public service. Local authorities continue to provide routine public updates. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Morale Boosters: Veteran rowing competitions in Zaporizhzhia and promotion of patriotic merchandise ("Merch 225") aim to boost morale and support. Public recognition of unit commanders (127th TD Brigade) boosts military and civilian morale. Continued fundraising success (Nikolaevskiy Vanek, STERNENKO) show citizen support for sustainment. The rapid closure of a fundraising effort (5 hours 25 minutes) indicates efficient and robust public support for sustainment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Internal Critiques: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts criticism of Vasya Lomachenko, a public figure, for perceived pro-Russian sympathies, indicating internal pressure on public figures to align with national sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Internal Information Environment: РБК-Україна reports on Ministry of Defense's reaction to "Rezerv+" geolocation claims, indicating efforts to counter misinformation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS celebrates Insider UA's 2 million subscribers, indicating focus on internal media reach and influence. RBC-Ukraine posts video of an expert discussing the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense, refuting rumors of decreased efficiency, indicating proactive UAF efforts to manage the information space. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a heat map of Kyiv showing Shevchenkivskyi district as most targeted, providing data to support UAF's reports on RUF attacks. UAF sources (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) are also amplifying a UAF Commander's nuanced statement on territorial goals ("Never fantasized about the 91st borders"). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF sources are amplifying Trump's "time for peace" statements, demonstrating vulnerability to RUF-shaped narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - VULNERABILITY)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes:
  • International Aid/Diplomacy: NATO partner countries committed €35 billion in weapons aid for 2025. German humanitarian aid received. President Zelenskyy's high-level meetings in the UK underscore continued strong international backing and defense cooperation. President Zelenskyy's upcoming speech in the Netherlands Parliament indicates continued successful diplomatic engagement. Zelenskyy meets Ukrainian defenders training in UK. Zelenskyy thanks Chatham House. Zelenskyy confirms agreement with UK for joint drone production. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Counter-Intelligence: SBU claims to have prevented assassination attempts on multiple high-value Ukrainian figures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Public Response/Transparency: Ukrainian authorities (OVA, KCMA, President Zelenskyy) promptly confirmed civilian casualties and responded to attacks, maintaining transparency. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Tactical Engagement: UAF drone operations successfully resulted in the surrender of two RUF soldiers near Kharkiv. UAF 55th OABr successfully used a drone to target RUF personnel. UAF General Staff releases video of successful drone-guided strikes on RUF strongholds and personnel. New OTU "Kharkiv" videos show effective drone strikes on RUF. UAF 1129th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment destroyed 7 RUF UAVs. UAF 15th Brigade of NGU "Kara-Dag" successfully clearing RUF positions in Kharkiv. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts video emphasizing offensive action against the enemy on their own territory. STERNENKO's new video shows continued tactical drone effectiveness against RUF personnel. Оперативний ЗСУ reports successful airstrike on RUF command post in occupied Kherson Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of effective drone strike on RUF personnel. ASTRA reports UAF strike on RUF positions in Bryansk Oblast. UAF AD successfully intercepted a Shahed UAV over Odesa. UAF FPV drone strike on a RUF evacuation vehicle confirmed by video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Artillery Engagement: Video from Air Assault Forces demonstrates continued effective use of D-30 artillery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Strategic Capability: UAF claims serial production of "Sapsan" OTRK ballistic missile, which would be a significant enhancement of deep strike capabilities. UAF confirmed deep strike on "Atlas" oil depot in Rostov Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF claim)
  • Public Support: Ongoing successful fundraising efforts. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports rapid closure of a fundraising effort, indicating continued strong public support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Legal/Economic: Naftogaz of Ukraine won an international arbitration court case against Gazprom. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • PSYOPS: UAF is utilizing grim drone footage of fallen RUF soldiers as counter-propaganda, demonstrating PSYOPS capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Setbacks:
  • Increased Civilian Casualties: The number of confirmed fatalities in Kyiv from the night attack has risen to 9, including an 11-year-old girl and her mother. Two fatalities confirmed in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. Fatality count in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi increased to three. 11 civilian casualties reported from UAV strike in Putyvl, Sumy Oblast. Ongoing FPV-drone and artillery strikes on Nikopol. Extensive damage in Kyiv's Shevchenkivskyi district requiring prolonged cleanup. Video from Toshkivka, Luhansk Oblast, confirms significant destruction of residential buildings and lack of basic services due to shelling. RUF KAB strikes confirmed on Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. STERNENKO reports RUF destroyed a clinic where disabled children and former POWs were treated. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Civilian Infrastructure Damage: Continued damage to residential areas and a lyceum in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. Damage reported in Nikopol. Extensive damage in Kyiv's Shevchenkivskyi district requiring prolonged cleanup. Video from Toshkivka, Luhansk Oblast, confirms significant destruction of residential buildings and lack of basic services due to shelling. A clinic for disabled children and former POWs was destroyed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Information Vulnerability (CRITICAL, WORSENING): Some Ukrainian media outlets (e.g., Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, ASTRA, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) continue to widely amplify RUF's dangerous global fabrications and unverified claims, including the fabricated "Trump" social media post on oil prices, unconfirmed F-35 shootdown, fabricated IAEA reports on Fordo, Iran suspending IAEA cooperation, and Qatar's airspace closure. RUF UAV strike on Putyvl immediately reported without sufficient context to debunk RUF narratives, and continued amplification of other RUF technical claims (Shahed characteristics). РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ explicitly amplify the fabricated "Trump" post on Medvedev's nuclear threats to Iran, further legitimizing RUF's global diversion. Ukrainian sources are also immediately and widely amplifying the unverified claims and visual evidence of Iranian missile strikes on US bases in Qatar/Iraq and explosions in Doha, and reports from Ynet. Most concerningly, Оперативний ЗСУ is also amplifying the unsubstantiated claims of Israeli Air Force strikes on Tehran. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - CRITICAL VULNERABILITY). Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video suggesting Iranians are "having fun" with a "useless attack" on the US base, indicating an attempt to counter RUF's narrative of successful Iranian strikes, but still amplifying the underlying event. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a photo of text criticizing Medvedev's nuclear threats and suggesting he's trying to impress Trump, still amplifying the fabricated interaction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS amplifies RUF/Ukrainian narrative on oil price drops due to "failed" Iranian attacks, still amplifying the fabricated event. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also amplifies Medvedev's statement to Trump that Russia will not transfer nuclear weapons to Iran, further legitimizing the fabricated narrative. РБК-Україна posts video of "expert" discussing the rhythm of RUF strikes, indicating focus on RUF patterns but potentially without sufficient counter-IO. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of lights in the sky over Doha, Qatar, claiming Iran attacked US bases. Оперативний ЗСУ publishes a video related to B-2 Spirit bombers and strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, amplifying a RUF IO narrative. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Israel plans to conclude campaign in Iran and informed US, citing Reuters. Ukrainian media amplifies Trump's "time for peace" statements and other comments, regardless of their origin or intent. Some Ukrainian channels amplify Colonelcassad's denial of RUF civilian targeting in Kyiv, despite clear UAF evidence to the contrary. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - VULNERABILITY).
  • RUF Claimed Successes: RUF claims of Lancet destroying Abrams tanks in Sumy, Iskander hitting UAF training centers, and destruction of UAF UAV control points, if verified, would be significant tactical setbacks, particularly regarding force generation capabilities and command/control of critical assets. ASTRA reports at least two military personnel dying from a strike on a polygon in Donetsk Oblast (unspecified side); if UAF, this would be a setback. RUF claims 9 UAF UAVs destroyed over Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts. RUF claims a British mercenary was liquidated. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claims)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Humanitarian Aid: Increased need for support to civilian populations affected by strikes, particularly for those with fatalities and injuries. Humanitarian aid for communal services is a positive but ongoing requirement. New civilian casualties in Sumy, Nikopol, and Zolochiv further highlight this need. Prolonged cleanup in Kyiv indicates sustained resource drain for urban recovery. Video from Toshkivka confirms continued humanitarian needs in shelled areas. The destruction of a clinic treating disabled children and former POWs highlights a critical healthcare and humanitarian need. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Air Defense: Continued urgent need for advanced AD systems to counter diverse RUF missile and drone threats, especially those with new warhead types and the increased use of Iskanders against military targets. RBC-Ukraine's report of RUF's projected Shahed production capacity of 700/day from September highlights a critical future AD requirement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Information Security: URGENT need for robust training and implementation of counter-IO protocols within Ukrainian media to prevent amplification of enemy disinformation, especially regarding the Krokus City Hall blame-shifting and fabricated global conflicts, and now the unverified Qatar/Iraq missile strike claims and associated nuclear threats, and unverified Israeli strikes on Tehran, and RUF's new narratives to control the "resolution" of this fabricated conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Military Aid: While significant aid is confirmed for 2025, the immediate and ongoing need for specific military equipment, especially AD and counter-drone systems, remains critical due to RUF's adaptation of targeting and munitions. Agreement with UK for joint drone production is a positive step, but immediate needs remain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• NONE.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian (CRITICALLY ESCALATED - Direct Blame for Krokus, Intensified Global War Fabrication with Alleged Kinetic Activity, Nuclear Threats, Controlled "Resolution" of Fabricated Conflict, Continued Dehumanization, Atrocity Fabrications, Domestic Control, Projecting Military Readiness, Sowing Discord, New Pivot in Narrative Control):
  • Immediate Kinetic Fabrication & Misattribution: RUF sources (Операция Z) continue to disseminate videos claiming Lancet UAVs are destroying Abrams tanks in Sumy Oblast. RUF claims UAF shelling caused child injury in Dnipryany. RUF milbloggers are amplifying claims about new, more effective Shahed warheads. RUF (НгП раZVедка) claims an Iskander strike hit a UAF training center in Sumy. Оперативний ЗСУ reports RUF UAV attack on Putyvl community, Sumy Oblast, resulting in 11 civilian casualties, immediately claiming this. Поддубный (RUF milblogger) claims successful artillery destruction of UAF UAV control point in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. TASS reports 25 fatalities in Israel from "Iranian shelling," escalating the fabricated conflict. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin claims RUF AD repelled a UAV attack targeting Moscow, framing a defensive action as success. Oleg Sinegubov, head of Kharkiv OVA, reports RUF attack on Zolochiv community. RBC-Ukraine reports the number of fatalities in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi has increased to three. MoD Russia posts video claiming successful destruction of a UAF UAV control post, providing visual evidence. Colonelcassad reports Iran claims one missile hit northern IDF command headquarters during morning attack. MoD Russia posts #DailyFigure graphic, likely a casualty claim against UAF. ASTRA reports a Russian plane dropped a half-ton aerial bomb on houses near occupied Dokuchaevsk. TASS reports Qatar military recorded 7 missile launches from Iran. TASS reports Trump stated no Americans harmed in Iranian strikes, 13/14 missiles shot down, 1 missed. TASS and ASTRA report nine (9) UAF UAVs were destroyed over Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Intensified Dehumanization & Mockery: RUF channels ("ZONA SVO") are mocking President Zelenskyy as a "beggar" for weapons. Poddubny attempts to discredit Ukrainian claims regarding body repatriation, alleging mixing of bodies, further amplified by internal RUF milblogger complaints about funeral quality. "Басурин о главном" attempts to mock a UAF commander (Kirill Veres) and twist his words. Alex Parker Returns posts a video with anti-migrant rhetoric, linking to alleged "genocide of Russians in Tajikistan." Colonelcassad posts photos with captions framing President Zelenskyy's statements about civilian casualties in Kyiv as "fake news," attempting to deny RUF responsibility for strikes on civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Fabrication of Atrocities: TASS reports a child injured by UAF shelling. RUF (TASS, ASTRA, WarGonzo, Operatsiya Z, Alex Parker Returns, Colonelcassad) has now definitively and repeatedly blamed Ukraine's leadership for the Krokus City Hall terrorist attack, with the Investigative Committee reportedly concluding its probe and assigning blame to Kyiv. This is a major and dangerous escalation of false-flag narrative. Rybar reinforces the "Krokus: customer identified" narrative. RUF sources (Colonelcassad) specifically highlight "army boxes" near the damaged lyceum in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi to retroactively justify a civilian target. Alex Parker Returns comments on the second anniversary of the "march of justice," mentioning the Krokus attack and blaming "Khokhols" (Ukrainians) for incursions into Kursk. ASTRA reports a Russian plane dropped a half-ton aerial bomb on houses near occupied Dokuchaevsk, a potential accidental RUF atrocity which could be spun. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Controlled Global Diversion (EXTREMELY ESCALATED with new kinetic claims and nuclear threats, now with a narrative pivot and "resolution" phase): Colonelcassad reports unconfirmed claims of a second F-35 shot down in Tabriz. "Оперативний ЗСУ" (Ukrainian, but amplifying RUF technical claims) shares a fabricated "Trump" social media post about oil prices. New additions include RUF claiming IAEA reports of serious damage to Iran's Fordo nuclear facility from US strikes, Iran suspending cooperation with IAEA, Iran threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, TASS citing Reuters on US expectation of an Iranian retaliatory strike within 1-2 days, Rybar providing new "visual evidence" of successful Iranian air defense. CRITICAL NEW DEVELOPMENT: TASS reports Israel launched strike on IRGC facility in Tehran. TASS reports US intelligence warned of Iranian strike on Al Udeid base in Qatar. TASS reports explosions in Doha. Военкор Котенок reports Iran launched 6 ballistic missiles on US objects in Qatar. Alex Parker Returns expresses "joy" over Iran launching missiles. Colonelcassad claims "strikes on US airbase in Qatar began." TASS reports Iran produced 6 missile launches at US military bases in Qatar and 1 in Iraq. TASS reports Iran began operation against Al Udeid base. НгП раZVедка reports Iran attacking US military base in Qatar. Two МАЙОРА posts fabricated social media screenshot of a "clash of titans" between Trump and Medvedev, with Medvedev threatening Iran with nuclear strikes if they hit US bases in Qatar. Colonelcassad posts a "Trump is watching" image. TASS reports air alarms in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and sirens in Iraq at US bases. Alex Parker Returns reports UAE closed airspace. Janus Putkonen (RUF source) posts video of "breaking news" and images, some with "NAYAFORIRAQ" watermark, showing lights in sky. Два майора posts video and photos of "US - Iran" with lights in the sky. ASTRA posts video of "air defense working over Qatar capital." Colonelcassad posts video of Qatar/UAE closing airspace. ASTRA posts Iran also attacking US bases in Iraq. TASS reports Iranian Armed Forces confirmed strike on Al-Udeid. TASS reports Iran will not leave any aggression unanswered. РБК-Україна reports strike on Al-Udeid. Военкор Котенок reports 3 strikes on Al-Udeid. TASS reports Qatar MoD states no fatalities/injuries and AD repelled attack. Janus Putkonen reports Iran closes Strait of Hormuz. НгП раZVедка reports Qatar retains right to respond. Colonelcassad reports Qatar MFA calls for immediate cessation of hostilities. TASS reports Qatar condemns attack. Kuwait, Iraq, and UAE have now also closed their airspace. Kotsnews reports "Iran not for the first time launches missiles at Trump." TASS confirms US military sources (Pentagon) state no casualties at Al Udeid from Iranian strike. TASS reports Iranian Defense Minister discussed strikes with Russian counterpart Belousov. TASS reports Israel completed a "massive series of attacks on targets in Tehran." РБК-Україна posts video of alleged Iranian missile launches. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts photos and text claiming "Massive strike on Tehran." ПЕНТАГОН confirms to Военкор Котенок that Iran struck Al Udeid with ballistic missiles. Операция Z reports "Iran notified the US via two diplomatic channels hours before attacks." Старше Эдды posts an ironic comment regarding Iran's strikes. Colonelcassad states "Iran's retaliatory strike against the United States was not long in coming." TASS reports "intensive air defense activity" in Tehran. Colonelcassad reports Medvedev stated Russia would not transfer nuclear weapons to Iran. Два майора posts photos and a video collage of "US-Iran" with lights in the sky. Colonelcassad and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report oil prices have fallen below $70/barrel due to the "failed" or "ineffective" Iranian attacks. Старше Эдды expresses skepticism about the Iranian response. Colonelcassad posts video of a man, allegedly an Iranian official, stating Iran intends to increase strikes on Israel. ASTRA posts video of alleged Israeli strike on IRGC HQ in Tehran. ASTRA posts video from Pentagon showing B-2A Spirit bombers departing 37 hours before strikes on Iran. TASS reports Ruttte called reports of US military presence reduction in Europe "gossip." Военкор Котенок provides a "modest comment" that despite rhetoric, there is some "agreement of the kahal with the Persians," implying a coordinated charade regarding the Iranian strikes on empty nuclear facilities and US bases. He calls it a "conspiracy of the elites" to "save face." This is a significant shift, signaling that RUF is now admitting to the fabricated nature of the conflict as a means of controlling the narrative. TASS reports Trump is not going to give a military response to Iran's strikes on US bases. TASS reports Iranian parliament committee approved plan to suspend cooperation with IAEA. TASS reports Khamenei stated Iran showed no aggression and will not allow aggression against itself. ASTRA amplifies Khamenei's statement. TASS quotes Russian Foreign Ministry statement on escalation in Middle East. Alex Parker Returns comments on Reuters report about Israel concluding operations against Iran, framing Reuters as a "yellow tabloid." Alex Parker Returns explicitly states "Third World War is over" as oil prices fall and airspace reopens. TASS reports Trump called Iran's response weak and hopes for peace. TASS reports Trump thanked Iran for timely notification of attack. TASS reports Domodedovo airport intensified passenger service due to delays from Middle East conflict. Военкор Котенок posts satellite images of Al Udeid Airbase before and after alleged Iranian strikes. НгП раZVедка reports Trump "turned on the fan" regarding the Middle East. Операция Z amplifies Trump's "time for peace" statement. TASS amplifies Klishas stating Trump's comments on Iran's "weak" response turned it into an "humiliation" for Iran. Rybar and Colonelcassad post videos of alleged Iranian celebrations of "great victory" over US. Qatar opens its airspace. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Irrelevant Domestic Content: Moscow news posting videos of beavers fighting and TASS reporting on toy scams are continued efforts to distract the Russian domestic audience from the war in Ukraine. New information includes RUF posting internal construction projects (new university), Moscow news on beaches, TASS on a musician's death, ASTRA on a lion attack in Crimea, TASS posting about a Slutsky proposing a Zhirinovsky fan club, distracting with internal political matters. Mash na Донбассе posts about cats saving kittens, and Два майора posts commercial gadget reviews, clear human-interest/commercial distractions. Moscow news posts on a schoolgirl drinking laxatives, a clear domestic distraction. WarGonzo posts about Viking ships and knife manufacturing. TASS reports on the death of musician Yuri Parfenov. TASS reports comedian Azamat Musagaliev added to Ukraine's national security threat list. TASS reports on IOC discussions about restoring recognition of the Russian Olympic Committee. Rybar posts about "Indo-Pacific quartet breaking up." TASS reports on 145 people complaining of syringe attacks at French festivals. Moscow News posts photos of construction in Ramenka, Moscow. Moscow News posts video of a French bulldog in the metro. TASS reports the murder of the director of a regional Olympic reserve college and his lawyer in Tulsk Oblast. Fighterbomber posts "Отбой страна!". Рыбарь posts on "Almazny Khvost Pashinyana." Moscow news reports on scientists warning of bacteria risk from smartphone use in toilets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Dehumanizing Ukraine/UAF: Poddubny, citing SVR RF, claimed Serbia supplied weapons to Ukraine, aiming to destabilize diplomatic relations. This claim was then contradicted by TASS and Colonelcassad. TASS reports comedian Azamat Musagaliev added to Ukraine's national security threat list. "Старше Эдды" expresses frustration with Serbia's actions while amplifying SVR's accusation. TASS posts photos of Maria Zakharova speaking, with captions asking if Serbia supplied weapons to Kyiv. Военкор Котенок posts a message expressing frustration that "ally" Vucic turned out to be a "scoundrel" for allegedly selling shells to "ukronazis." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Exaggerated UAF Losses: RUF milbloggers (Операция Z, Kotsnews, НгП раZVедка, Воин DV) are claiming successful destruction of Abrams tanks by Lancet UAVs, UAF APC/BMP-2 destruction, and effective anti-drone operations (coptercide), and UAF UAV control points. New MoD Russia video claims disruption of personnel rotation and elimination of materiel in Donetsk direction, reinforcing claims of UAF attrition. Colonelcassad miscaptions a video of a destroyed RUF BMP as a Ukrainian complaint about "Geran" (Shahed) improvements. RUF milbloggers claim capture of a settlement with low enemy resistance, and foreign mercenaries among UAF forces. Colonelcassad posts an animated scheme of strikes on Ukraine from 22-23 June. Операция Z posts video of intense combat near Pokrovsk, with claims of destroying NATO equipment and UAF personnel. Alex Parker Returns posts a graphic of daily losses (#DailyFigure). «Зона СВО» posts a somber video showing destroyed military vehicles in a post-battle scene, implying high UAF losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Promoting Military Might and Cohesion: TASS video of Baltic Sea naval exercises aims to project RUF military power. MoD Russia shares video of Defense Minister Belousov addressing military graduates. Belousov's meeting with Mali's Defense Minister projects international military cooperation. TASS reports that the location for Russia-US talks on "irritants," suggesting a diplomatic channel is being maintained or highlighted for IO purposes. "Два майора" posts a video showcasing Chinese rocket launches. WarGonzo publishes a video on "Two sniper bullets met in flight." "Два майора" shares information on a French AI drone module. "Мобилизация | Новости | Срочники" posts about honoring parents of mobilized soldiers. Поддубный posts video of Vladimir Putin meeting military university graduates. Kotsnews posts "Evening Bell" photos. Colonelcassad posts about "Era of hit-and-run is over." Kotsnews' poll result showing 55% of subscribers consider the Army, Navy, and Aerospace Forces as their main allies. Colonelcassad posts video of a Russian soldier receiving tactical gear. Два майора posts a photo claiming "USA and Denmark are creating a new European center for NATO air drone operations." MoD Russia posts video of Defense Minister Belousov holding talks with Malian head of military department. Два майора posts a video from Crimea discussing coastal defense and anti-drone operations. Дневник Десантника posts daily summary reports. ASTRA posts video featuring Russian comedians Denis Dorokhov and Azamat Musagaliev. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts video of a Heckler & Koch M320 A1 grenade launcher demonstration, claiming it as a "trophy." TASS reports Trump is not going to give a military response to Iran's strikes on US bases. TASS reports Iranian parliament committee approved plan to suspend cooperation with IAEA. Colonelcassad posts images of damages to IRGC HQ in Tehran after alleged Israeli strikes. Дневник Десантника posts a film asking what makes a soldier confident in battle. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video of a heavily modified vehicle with metal rods/spikes. Военкор Котенок posts map of Siversk direction, indicating continued RUF focus on this axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Suppression of Dissent: Reports on the sentencing of dissident Alexander Skobov and a student for "insulting Putin" reinforce the message of state control and punishment for opposition. Colonelcassad's report on the former Deputy Defense Minister's trial (Timur Ivanov) and the conviction of Aksyonov's assassination plotter reinforces narratives of internal discipline and anti-corruption. "Военкор Котенок" discusses internal corporate conflicts hindering industry. TASS reports the verdict for Timur Ivanov and his former subordinate will be announced on July 1st. Colonelcassad posts photo of the individual sentenced for attempted assassination of Aksyonov. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Child Indoctrination: ASTRA's report on children weaving camouflage nets is a clear example of the normalization of war and indoctrination of youth into the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Internal Migration Issues: Рыбарь and Два майора publish videos on migration issues in Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, focusing on migrant crime and potential extremism. Alex Parker Returns posts a video with anti-migrant rhetoric. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Ukrainian (CRITICAL VULNERABILITY - Amplification of RUF Disinformation, Focus on Civilian Impact, Operational Updates, Calls for Aid, International Cooperation):
  • CRITICAL VULNERABILITY: Amplification of RUF Disinformation (SELF-INFLICTED WOUND, WORSENING): Prominent Ukrainian media (РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, ASTRA, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) continue to widely amplify RUF's dangerous global fabrications and unverified claims, including the fabricated "Trump" social media post on oil prices, unconfirmed F-35 shootdowns, fabricated IAEA reports on Fordo, Iran suspending IAEA cooperation, and Qatar's airspace closure. RUF UAV strike on Putyvl immediately reported without sufficient context. РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ explicitly amplify the fabricated "Trump" post on Medvedev's nuclear threats to Iran. Ukrainian sources are also immediately and widely amplifying the unverified claims and visual evidence of Iranian missile strikes on US bases in Qatar/Iraq and explosions in Doha, and reports from Ynet. Most concerningly, Оперативний ЗСУ is also amplifying the unsubstantiated claims of Israeli Air Force strikes on Tehran. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video suggesting Iranians are "having fun" with a "useless attack" on the US base, indicating an attempt to counter RUF's narrative of successful Iranian strikes, but still amplifying the underlying event. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a photo of text criticizing Medvedev's nuclear threats and suggesting he's trying to impress Trump, still amplifying the fabricated interaction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS amplifies RUF/Ukrainian narrative on oil price drops due to "failed" Iranian attacks, still amplifying the fabricated event. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also amplifies Medvedev's statement to Trump that Russia will not transfer nuclear weapons to Iran. РБК-Україна posts video of "expert" discussing the rhythm of RUF strikes. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of lights in the sky over Doha, Qatar, claiming Iran attacked US bases. Оперативний ЗСУ publishes a video related to B-2 Spirit bombers and strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, amplifying a RUF IO narrative. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Israel plans to conclude campaign in Iran and informed US, citing Reuters. Ukrainian media amplifies Trump's "time for peace" statements and other comments, regardless of their origin or intent. Some Ukrainian channels amplify Colonelcassad's denial of RUF civilian targeting in Kyiv, despite clear UAF evidence to the contrary. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - VULNERABILITY).
  • Public Safety Messaging & Damage Reports: РБК-Україна and ASTRA immediately report increased fatalities in Kyiv (now 9), and new fatalities in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi (2). President Zelenskyy publicly reacted to the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi strike. New video footage confirms the scale of the Kyiv attack. Оперативний ЗСУ reports 11 civilian casualties from UAV strike in Putyvl, Sumy Oblast. Zaporizhzhia OVA reports ongoing FPV-drone and artillery strikes and damage in Nikopol district. Prolonged cleanup in Kyiv. Video from Toshkivka, Luhansk Oblast, emphasizing destroyed buildings and lack of services due to shelling. Oleg Sinegubov, head of Kharkiv OVA, reports RUF attack on Zolochiv community. RBC-Ukraine reports the number of fatalities in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi has increased to three. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a heat map of Kyiv showing Shevchenkivskyi district as most targeted. STERNENKO reports RUF destroyed a clinic where disabled children and former POWs were treated. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Operational Updates: Air Force of Ukraine continues to provide timely alerts for KAB and missile threats. Serhiy Flesch (Ukrainian source) reports on the characteristics of the new Shahed warheads. UAF Air Assault Forces release video of D-30 artillery in action. OTU "Kharkiv" released video of RUF personnel surrender to a drone. UAF 55th OABr releases video of drone strike on RUF personnel. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (General Staff of AFU) releases video of drone footage showing successful strikes on enemy strongholds and personnel. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on Ukrainian serial production of "Sapsan" OTRK ballistic missiles. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ and Оперативний ЗСУ confirm successful strike on Rostov oil depot. STERNENKO reports UAF 1129th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment destroyed 7 RUF UAVs. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of "clearing Russian positions" by 15th Brigade of NGU "Kara-Dag" in Kharkiv region. Оперативний ЗСУ reports airstrike on RUF command post in occupied Kherson Oblast. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a photo of a drone in the sky. Оперативний ЗСУ posts drone footage showing a soldier being engulfed in flames after an explosion. New UAF drone footage (Оперативний ЗСУ) shows a fallen RUF soldier in a trench with visible injuries. ASTRA reports UAF struck "Susem Forestery" building in Bryansk Oblast, RF. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posts "170km from the front line." Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of a RUF evacuation vehicle being hit by an FPV drone from two angles. РБК-Україна posts an updated map of air raid alerts and clarifies areas with enemy drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Call for Aid: Оперативний ЗСУ reports on EU and Canada's €35 billion weapons aid commitment for 2025. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports NATO Secretary General's confirmation of over €35 billion military aid from partners for this year. Zaporizhzhia OVA reports receiving humanitarian aid from Germany. Nikolaevskiy Vanek provides update on ongoing fundraising. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports a successful fundraising closure in 5 hours 25 minutes. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts photos highlighting NATO SG's promise of €35B military aid to Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Counter-Intelligence Successes: Operatsiya Z (amplifying UAF SBU) reports on the SBU's claim of preventing assassination attempts on President Zelenskyy and other high-value figures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Internal Governance: RBC-Ukraine, Operatyvny ZSU, and Sternenko report on the Vice Prime Minister being served with suspicion, demonstrating transparent internal anti-corruption efforts. Zaporizhzhia OVA promotes economic support for entrepreneurs. Zaporizhzhia OVA celebrates civil servants. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Azov Testimonial: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС releases a powerful video testimonial from an Azov Regiment female soldier highlighting resilience, combat experiences, and the human cost. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Morale/Patriotic Messaging: Zaporizhzhia OVA reports veteran rowing competitions. Оперативний ЗСУ promotes "Merch 225" clothing. General Staff of AFU promotes a unit commander from the Territorial Defense Forces. President Zelenskyy's upcoming speech in the Netherlands Parliament indicates continued successful diplomatic engagement. Zelenskyy meets Ukrainian defenders training in UK. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Internal Critique: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 criticizes Ukrainian boxer Vasya Lomachenko for perceived pro-Russian sympathies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Worrying Internal IO: STERNENKO posts a video of "drifting" in Kyiv after a missile attack, highlighting internal disregard for law and potentially fueling negative perceptions of Ukrainian society amidst conflict, despite a disclaimer attempting to mitigate the impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Legal/Economic Success: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Naftogaz of Ukraine won an international arbitration court case against Gazprom. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Nuanced Territorial Goal Messaging: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a photo of Kirill Veres, Commander of the K-2 Unmanned Systems Regiment, with a quote: "Never fantasized about the 91st borders," possibly indicating a nuanced UAF stance on territorial goals or a psychological operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian: Civilian morale in Kyiv, Odesa, Sumy, and Nikopol is under severe strain due to the continued, lethal ballistic missile and UAV attacks and increased fatalities, including children. The public's exposure to potentially misleading RUF global narratives, even if amplified by Ukrainian channels, could lead to confusion or diversion of focus from the immediate threat. The prompt and transparent reporting by Ukrainian authorities and the President's reaction help to maintain trust and a sense of government responsiveness. News of substantial international aid (EU/Canada, NATO) and high-level diplomatic meetings (Zelenskyy in UK, upcoming Netherlands speech) will likely boost morale. UAF operational videos and the Azov Regiment testimonial, and local morale-boosting events serve to boost military and civilian morale and reinforce resilience. UAF claims of domestic ballistic missile production will boost national confidence. Continued fundraising success indicates sustained public support. The public quick closure of fundraising shows continued strong support. The criticism of Lomachenko indicates public demand for clear patriotic alignment. However, the STERNENKO video of "drifting" in Kyiv is concerning and could negatively impact internal morale and public perception of order. The public discussion on AD effectiveness, with an expert refuting rumors, shows internal concerns but also proactive efforts to manage morale. New agreement for joint drone production with UK will boost morale and confidence in long-term capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Russian: Domestic sentiment is continuously shaped by the pervasive "global war" narrative (now with more "evidence" including claims of attacks on Iran/Israel and US bases in Qatar/Iraq, and the Qatar/UAE airspace closures, along with fabricated nuclear threats and claims of satellite navigation suppression, and now unsubstantiated claims of Israeli Air Force strikes on Tehran, and a fabricated "victory" for Iran leading to "peace"), claims of battlefield successes (Lancet vs. Abrams, Iskander strikes, anti-drone operations, new MoD videos, UAV control point destruction, claimed settlement capture), and narratives of internal discipline (Timur Ivanov trial, Skobov/student sentencing, Aksyonov plotter, funeral complaints, corporate conflict discussions, parent recognition). The blame for Krokus City Hall being shifted to Ukraine and now formally concluded by the Investigative Committee and reinforced by Rybar is a major new element designed to solidify public support for further aggression. Distraction through irrelevant news continues. The public is being prepared for prolonged conflict through displays of military readiness and child indoctrination. Reports of "cattle-like" funerals and "corporate conflicts hindering industry" may cause some internal discontent, but RUF IO will likely attempt to redirect blame or downplay their significance. New domestic narratives on migration and crime aim to justify increased state control. Kotsnews' poll result showing 55% of subscribers consider the Army, Navy, and Aerospace Forces as their main allies, indicating internal efforts to boost morale and support. Военкор Котенок's new narrative explicitly reframing the US-Iran conflict as a "conspiracy of the elites" is a highly adaptive IO measure to control public perception and prevent disillusionment if the conflict does not escalate as initially fabricated, thereby maintaining internal cohesion despite the prior fabrication. RUF fundraising videos for tactical units indicate continued public support for military efforts. The "Third World War is over" narrative from Alex Parker Returns aims to quickly close the chapter on the fabricated conflict, managing public expectations. RUF sources are now explicitly celebrating "Iranian victory" and Trump's "peace" statements, demonstrating a controlled narrative resolution. Anti-migrant sentiment is being stoked by RUF milbloggers. Colonelcassad's direct denial of civilian targeting in Kyiv despite evidence is aimed at controlling domestic and international perception. RUF milbloggers are using somber videos of battle aftermath to portray sacrifice and reinforce camaraderie. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Global Diversion (CRITICAL, Escalated, now with a controlled "resolution" phase): RUF's fabricated "Iran-Israel/US War" continues and is rapidly escalating, with new unconfirmed claims (*Iranian missile strikes on US bases in Qatar and Iraq, explosions in Doha/other locations, fabricated Trump/Medvedev nuclear threats, claims of satellite navigation suppression over Persian Gulf, and now unsubstantiated claims of Israeli Air Force strikes on Tehran), fabricated diplomatic messaging (e.g., US expects Iran strike, claims of Israeli casualties from Iran, strikes on Evin Prison attributed to Zionists, imminent Iranian strikes, two-year conflict preparations, and fabricated "Trump" post on oil prices and nuclear threats, Kellogg-Lukashenka meeting on "Trump's peace efforts") designed to further complicate the international environment, leveraging real-world events like Qatar's and UAE's airspace closures, and the Rosaviatsia/Bahrain/Kuwait/Iraq flight bans. This, combined with the direct accusation that Ukraine is behind the Krokus City Hall attack, now reinforced by Russian Investigative Committee claims and Rybar's statements, represents an unprecedented level of diplomatic and informational aggression designed to isolate Ukraine and divert international attention. Conflicting reports from Qatar (denying damage/casualties) and Iran (claiming hits) are being exploited by RUF to sow confusion. Qatar MFA statement on retaining the right to respond indicates a real-world diplomatic consequence, which RUF is immediately leveraging. Claims of US fighter jets heading towards Iran and Trump in the Situation Room are further escalatory fabrications. ASTRA reports Russian flight bans to multiple Mideast countries, adding weight to the fabricated escalation. Pentagon's confirmation (via TASS) of Iranian ballistic missile strike on Al Udeid, while denying US casualties, provides a dangerous veneer of credibility to RUF's broader narrative. The claimed call between Iranian and Russian Defense Ministers, and Medvedev's statement on nuclear non-proliferation, indicate RUF's efforts to position itself diplomatically within this fabricated crisis. RUF's fluctuating narrative on the effectiveness of the Iranian strikes and the oil price drop indicates an attempt to control the impact of the fabricated conflict on the global economy and perception of power. TASS reports Ruttte called reports of US military presence reduction in Europe "gossip," indicating RUF interest in Western alliance cohesion. Военкор Котенок's shift in narrative, suggesting the US-Iran conflict is a "conspiracy of the elites," is a sophisticated attempt to control the perception of the conflict, potentially to avoid backlash if the conflict doesn't escalate as initially portrayed, while still allowing RUF to claim some influence. TASS reports Trump is not going to give a military response to Iran's strikes on US bases. TASS reports Iranian parliament committee approved plan to suspend cooperation with IAEA. TASS reports Khamenei's statement that Iran will not allow aggression against itself. ASTRA amplifies Khamenei's statement. TASS quotes Russian Foreign Ministry statement on escalation in Middle East. Alex Parker Returns comments on Reuters report about Israel concluding operations against Iran, framing Reuters as a "yellow tabloid." Alex Parker Returns explicitly states "Third World War is over" as oil prices fall and airspace reopens. TASS reports Trump called Iran's response weak and hopes for peace. TASS reports Trump thanked Iran for timely notification of attack. RUF sources are now celebrating "Iranian victory" and Trump's "peace" statements, demonstrating a controlled narrative resolution. TASS and ASTRA report Qatar has opened its airspace. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Ukrainian Diplomacy: The commitment of €35 billion in weapons aid from EU and Canada for 2025 and NATO Secretary General's confirmation of this significant aid is a substantial diplomatic success, demonstrating continued and robust international solidarity with Ukraine. Receipt of German humanitarian aid is another positive sign. President Zelenskyy's high-level meetings with UK leadership and parliamentary speakers underscore continued strong bilateral support and defense cooperation. President Zelenskyy's upcoming speech in the Netherlands Parliament indicates continued active diplomatic engagement. A European poll suggests majority support for increased defense spending, nuclear shield, and support for Ukraine without US aid. Japan's creation of a special group for drone and AI development for armed forces is noted by UAF, indicating potential for future international technological cooperation. President Zelenskyy meets with Ukrainian defenders training in UK and engages with Chatham House. Naftogaz of Ukraine won an international arbitration court case against Gazprom, demonstrating a legal and economic victory with international implications. UAF is now amplifying Trump's statements about "peace" and a weak Iranian response, which originated from RUF IO. Zelenskyy confirms joint drone production with UK, a significant diplomatic and military cooperation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - VULNERABILITY, as it amplifies RUF-shaped narratives while being a success).
• RUF Diplomatic Efforts: RUF continues to use its state media to accuse third-party nations (Serbia) of supplying weapons to Ukraine, aiming to sow discord and disrupt international support networks, though the narrative on Serbia appears to have been adjusted with internal RUF milblogger discussion, but is now reignited by Zakharova and Военкор Котенок. Belousov's meeting with Mali Defense Minister indicates continued outreach to global South partners. TASS reports on the indeterminate location for Russia-US talks on "irritants," suggesting a diplomatic channel is being maintained or highlighted for IO purposes. RUF reporting on US/Danish NATO drone center indicates focus on NATO's evolving capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Assessing the real-world impact of Russia's extreme IO fabrications, specifically the "US-Iran War" narrative (now with claims of kinetic activity in Qatar/Iraq and nuclear threats, and unsubstantiated claims of Israeli strikes on Tehran), and the implications of Военкор Котенок's new "conspiracy of the elites" narrative on international perceptions. Monitor international diplomatic and media channels for any traction or confusion caused by this narrative that could impact policy or support for Ukraine. Assess the impact and intent behind the new RUF narrative declaring "Third World War is over" and celebrating "Iranian victory." (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT on diplomatic channels)
• MEDIUM: Assess the extent to which global and domestic anti-war protests (as amplified by RUF) impact actual Western government policy or public opinion regarding support for Ukraine. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
• MEDIUM: Assess the actual impact of "panic" videos in Qatari shopping malls to determine if they are genuine and widespread, or miscaptioned/isolated incidents used for RUF IO. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Continued Strategic Strikes with Enhanced Munitions and Intensified Ground Pressure, Supported by Extreme IO Diversion and Blame-Shifting with a Controlled "Resolution": RUF will continue high-intensity air and missile attacks targeting Ukrainian urban centers (Kyiv, Odesa, Sumy, Nikopol, Kharkiv) and critical infrastructure, prioritizing those with maximum civilian impact. Expect continued use of ballistic missiles (including potential DPRK types and newly serially produced "Oreshnik" missiles), cruise missiles, and mass Shahed drone waves (potentially with the new incendiary warheads reported and production capacity of 700/day from September) in saturation attacks. Expect continued, multi-wave Shahed drone attacks on Odesa and Pivdenne. RUF will continue to prioritize strikes on UAF force generation assets (training grounds, barracks) and high-value equipment (e.g., claims of Lancet destroying Abrams, Iskander strikes on training centers, UAV control points), indicating a persistent intent to degrade UAF capabilities and manpower. On the ground, RUF will maintain high-intensity pressure on the Pokrovsk-Siversk axis and continue disrupting personnel rotation and eliminating materiel in Donetsk direction, attempting tactical breakthroughs. They will also intensify ground engagements in Zaporizhzhia (Kamenske, Novoandreevka, Malinovka) and maintain pressure on Belogorovka and Novopavlivka, and potentially the Krasnolimansk direction. The major ground offensive on the Sumy axis is still imminent and highly probable in the very short term (0-72 hours), supported by heavy KAB and artillery fire, aiming to stretch UAF defenses. Activity on the Chernihiv direction with continued reconnaissance UAV activity may intensify into kinetic strikes. RUF will also maintain coastal defense operations in Crimea, with potential for offensive actions from the sea. This will be consistently supported by a hyper-aggressive, multi-layered global IO campaign, with a potential pivot in narrative control and a declared "resolution" phase:
  • RUF IO will attempt to quickly conclude its fabricated "US-Iran War" / "Israel-Iran" narrative by declaring a "victory" for Iran and a return to "peace," leveraging Trump's statements and the reopening of airspace, while subtly implying the whole event was a "conspiracy of the elites." This allows RUF to control the "aftermath" of its own fabrications.
  • Persistent and direct blaming of Ukraine's leadership for the Krokus City Hall attack, now leveraging the Investigative Committee's "findings" and Rybar's "customer identified" claims, likely used as a powerful internal and external narrative to justify further aggression and undermine international support for Ukraine.
  • Increased fabrication of UAF atrocities (e.g., claiming UAF shelling of civilian areas like Dnipryany, misrepresenting body repatriation efforts, immediately blaming UAF for civilian casualties from UAV strikes in Sumy, and possibly spinning the Dokuchaevsk bomb drop as UAF responsibility, and denying civilian targeting in Kyiv despite evidence).
  • Continued accusations against third-party nations (e.g., Serbia via Zakharova's statements and Военкор Котенок) to disrupt aid and sow discord.
  • Amplification of RUF military readiness and "successes" (e.g., Lancet destroying Abrams, Iskander strikes, Baltic Sea naval exercises, Mali cooperation, new MoD videos on Donetsk, UAV control point destruction, "sniper prowess" videos, Chinese rocket launches, claimed settlement capture, AD over Moscow, Kursk, and Belgorod, Putin meeting military graduates, provision of tactical gear, attention to NATO drone centers, Crimean coastal defense operations, animated strike maps, claims of captured Western weapons, satellite imagery purporting to show no damage to Al Udeid, heavily modified vehicles, liquidation of foreign mercenaries).
  • Leveraging internal Russian judicial processes (e.g., Ivanov trial, Skobov/student sentencing, Aksyonov plotter, funeral complaints, discussions on corporate conflicts, parent recognition, Tulsk murders, Prigozhin-related anniversary).
  • Increased propaganda aimed at domestic normalization of conflict and youth indoctrination (e.g., children making camouflage nets, new narratives on internal migration and crime, distracting domestic reporting on local construction/lifestyle, anti-migrant rhetoric, somber battle aftermath videos to invoke resilience). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Synchronized Multi-Front Offensive (Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk) with Mass Ballistic Missile and Incendiary Drone Attack on Kyiv and/or False-Flag Chemical/Biological Incident with Krokus Pretext and Nuclear Escalation Threat: RUF launches a major, synchronized ground offensive across the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk axes, aimed at a decisive operational breakthrough to collapse northern and eastern fronts. This offensive is preceded or accompanied by a mass ballistic missile (including DPRK types and "Oreshnik") and cruise missile attack on Kyiv and other major urban centers, combined with a saturation attack of Shahed drones armed with the new incendiary warheads (potentially at a rate of 700/day from September), aiming to cause widespread, uncontrollable fires and maximize terror and casualties. Concurrently, RUF executes a false-flag chemical or biological incident in a Ukrainian city or near a frontline, attributing it to UAF or Western forces, using the fabricated "Ukraine-Krokus" narrative as the primary justification/pretext for extreme "retaliation" or further escalation, potentially involving the use of WMD. This MDCOA is consistent with RUF's increasing disregard for civilian lives, its demonstrated capability for large-scale combined arms operations, and its highly aggressive and escalating IO campaign, which has already fabricated high-stakes global events, directly blamed Ukraine for a major terrorist attack, and now introduces claims of kinetic activity in the Middle East and explicit nuclear threats to its information operations, and fabricated Israeli strikes on Tehran for heightened global tension, and a new narrative that even this global conflict is a controlled "charade" to manage its own domestic population's expectations, and is now claiming a "victory" and "peace" in the Middle East to rapidly resolve its fabricated crisis*. (MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 0-6 hours, starting from 232115Z JUN 25):
  • RUF: Expect continued KAB launches on Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv Oblasts and ongoing missile threats to southern oblasts (Kherson), and reconnaissance UAV activity in Chernihiv, now with added threat of strike UAVs. Shahed UAVs confirmed in Poltava Oblast and over the Black Sea, threatening Odesa (16 inbound), Rybakovka (12 inbound), Chornomorsk (7 inbound), Kyiv (2 inbound), and now pivoting from Pivdenne to Odesa, with an additional 8 targeting Pivdenne. RUF will immediately amplify claims of Lancet and Iskander successes (e.g., Abrams, training centers, UAV control points) and new MoD videos on Donetsk. Continued, and likely intensified, dissemination of the fabricated "US-Iran War" / "Israel-Iran" narrative with new details, but with a stronger pivot towards declaring "victory" and "peace" in the Middle East. RUF will likely attempt to solidify the "resolution" of this manufactured crisis. Expect RUF IO to fabricate additional civilian casualties from UAF shelling (e.g., Dnipryany, Putyvl) and continue to push the "Ukraine-Krokus" narrative, now with "Investigative Committee findings" and "customer identified" claims, and linking it to the Prigozhin anniversary. RUF will continue to use irrelevant domestic news as distraction. RUF will promote the Pentagon confirmation of Iranian strikes on Al Udeid, emphasizing the kinetic aspect while likely downplaying no US casualties. RUF will promote the Iranian-Russian Defense Minister call. RUF will continue to broadcast daily operational summaries from milbloggers. RUF will continue to use Trump's statements to shape the narrative of the Middle East conflict's outcome. Expect RUF to deny civilian targeting in Kyiv.
  • UAF Decision Point: Immediately increase AD readiness in Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Kherson Oblasts against KAB and missile threats, and in Chernihiv against potential guided strikes following UAV recon, and against Shahed threats, especially those approaching Odesa/Kyiv/Pivdenne/Rybakovka/Chornomorsk. Publicly address and aggressively debunk new RUF claims of Lancet/Iskander successes (e.g., Abrams, training centers, UAV control points) with factual information, or state that claims are unverified. Immediately, and vociferously, debunk any new RUF fabrications related to the "US-Iran War" / "Israel-Iran" or other global diversions, and any new claims of UAF atrocities. CRITICALLY, establish a rapid response team to counter the "Ukraine-Krokus" narrative, especially the new Investigative Committee claims and "customer identified" claims, and counter RUF's body repatriation misinformation. Explicitly address Военкор Котенок's new "conspiracy of the elites" narrative as a desperate attempt by RUF to maintain control over a failing fabricated narrative, and counter the "Third World War is over" narrative and "Iranian victory" celebrations as a RUF attempt to dismiss its own fabrications. Ensure immediate humanitarian response for civilian casualties in Putyvl, Nikopol, Zolochiv, and Toshkivka, and for the clinic destroyed. Continue to publicize confirmed international aid and President Zelenskyy's diplomatic efforts, including the upcoming Netherlands speech. Address internal IO issues like the "drifting" video in Kyiv, emphasizing law and order, and address concerns regarding "Rezerv+" geolocation. Proactively counter any rumors of declining AD effectiveness. Consider the messaging impact of the "Never fantasized about the 91st borders" statement by a UAF commander.
• Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
  • RUF: High probability of the launch of a major ground offensive on the Sumy axis. Continued high-intensity pressure on the Pokrovsk-Siversk axis and Novopavlivka/Krasnolimansk directions. Sustained air and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, potentially with new Shahed warheads (up to 700/day from September). Continued accusations against third parties regarding arms supplies (e.g., Serbia), and further amplification of the "Ukraine-Krokus" and "US-Iran War" / "Israel-Iran" narratives with new "evidence" and nuclear threats, including unsubstantiated Israeli strikes on Tehran. RUF will likely attempt to solidify the "resolution" narrative for its fabricated Middle East conflict, declaring it "over" and celebrating "peace" or "Iranian victory." Possible increase in activity on the Chernihiv direction, potentially escalating from reconnaissance to kinetic. Continued ground engagements in Zaporizhzhia and Belogorovka.
  • UAF Decision Point: Rapidly assess and deploy reserves to the Sumy axis if offensive operations commence. Intensify defensive operations on the Pokrovsk-Siversk axis and Novopavlivka/Krasnolimansk directions. Continue to gather and share intelligence with international partners on RUF's escalating hybrid warfare, including the new Shahed warhead characteristics, the continued global diversion/blame-shifting, and the new level of IO with fabricated kinetic events and nuclear threats, and the evolving internal RUF narrative management and "resolution" strategies. Maintain public transparency regarding casualties and RUF tactics, while proactively countering RUF disinformation. Reinforce AD for all major cities and force generation assets. Leverage confirmed aid commitments to bolster morale and international standing. Proactively highlight UAF tactical successes (e.g., drone strikes on RUF personnel, General Staff strike videos, Sapsan production, Rostov strike, AD successes, Kharkiv clearing operations, STERNENKO tactical drone video, Kherson command post strike, Bryansk Oblast strike, Naftogaz victory, fallen RUF soldier video, joint UK drone production). Continue addressing internal IO issues and promoting national unity. Refine messaging on territorial goals if necessary to avoid misinterpretation.

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6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Surge all-source ISR to the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv axes to provide immediate warning of a major RUF ground offensive. This remains the #1 intelligence priority.
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Activate a dedicated, 24/7, multi-agency task force for real-time forensic analysis and aggressive, global debunking of Russia's extreme IO fabrications, particularly the "US-Iran War" / "Israel-Iran" narrative (especially claims of kinetic activity in Qatar and Iraq and associated nuclear threats, claims of satellite navigation suppression, and the unsubstantiated claims of Israeli Air Force strikes on Tehran), the unverified F-35 shootdown claim, and any new "Trump" fabricated posts, and especially the "Ukraine-Krokus" blame-shifting narrative, now including the Investigative Committee's "findings" and Rybar's "customer identified" claims, and its link to the Prigozhin anniversary. Identify specific RUF IO cells and their external networks globally to disrupt dissemination. Proactively counter RUF's misinformation regarding body repatriation. Analyze and counter RUF's new narrative shift (Военкор Котенок's "conspiracy of the elites") as a means to control information and prevent domestic disillusionment, and counter the "Third World War is over" narrative and "Iranian victory" celebrations as a RUF attempt to dismiss its own fabrications.
3. HIGH: Verify RUF claims of Lancet UAVs destroying Abrams tanks in Sumy Oblast, Iskander hitting a UAF training center in Sumy, and artillery destruction of a UAF UAV control point in Zaporizhzhia. Obtain high-resolution imagery and ground truth, and if confirmed, immediately analyze and develop countermeasures.
4. HIGH: Conduct immediate, detailed BDA on any impacted sites, particularly those hit by Shahed drones, to analyze the reported new viscous incendiary warhead material. This is critical for AD, fire suppression, and counter-munitions efforts.
5. HIGH: Verify UAF claim of serial production of "Sapsan" OTRK ballistic missiles. If confirmed, assess production rates, targeting capabilities, and potential impact on RUF AD.
6. HIGH: Obtain detailed BDA and intelligence on the claimed strike on a polygon in Donetsk Oblast, resulting in at least two military fatalities (ASTRA report). Identify the target side and specific munition used.
7. HIGH: Confirm UAF strike on "Susem Forestery" building in Bryansk Oblast and extent of damage/casualties to RUF forces.
8. HIGH: Assess RUF's projected Shahed production capacity (700/day from September).
9. HIGH: Confirm the reported drop of a half-ton aerial bomb by a Russian plane on houses near occupied Dokuchaevsk and assess intent.
10. HIGH: Verify RUF claim of a British mercenary, Benjamin Leo Burgess, being liquidated in the SMO zone.
11. HIGH: Confirm the reported UAF FPV drone strike on a RUF evacuation vehicle ("буханка"). Obtain BDA on casualties and vehicle type.
12. HIGH: Verify RUF claims of no civilian infrastructure being targeted in Kyiv, as stated by Colonelcassad, against evidence from UAF.
13. MEDIUM: Increase SIGINT on RUF command and control networks in Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, and the occupied territories of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, focusing on early indicators of major ground force movements, preparations for large-scale missile/drone attacks, and any operational changes related to new munition types.
14. MEDIUM: Monitor RUF's rhetoric and any observable force movements concerning Moldova and Transnistria for potential escalations or hybrid actions.
15. MEDIUM: Assess the impact of the requested 14.5-year sentence for former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov and the recent sentencing of the second Aksyonov assassination plot suspect on RUF internal cohesion and anti-corruption/dissent efforts. Also assess the impact of complaints about "cattle-like" funerals on RUF morale/cohesion. Investigate implications of "corporate conflicts hindering defense industry."
16. MEDIUM: Monitor RUF sources (e.g., ASTRA, "Старше Эдды," Военкор Котенок) for any further reports on internal discontent between Russia and its perceived allies (e.g., Iran, Serbia), assessing if this is genuine friction or part of a deeper RUF IO strategy, especially given Zakharova's new statements.
17. MEDIUM: Assess RUF's true capabilities and intent regarding the French CHUCK 3.0 AI drone module, including potential for acquisition, reverse engineering, or domestic development.
18. MEDIUM: Obtain BDA and assess impact of UAF airstrike on RUF command post in occupied Kherson Oblast.
19. LOW: Verify TASS claim of a child injured in Dnipryany, Kherson Oblast, due to UAF shelling.
20. LOW: Assess the significance of the appeal court upholding the sentence of dissident Alexander Skobov on internal Russian dissent.
21. LOW: Assess the tactical purpose and effectiveness of the heavily modified vehicle with metal rods/spikes.

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

1. URGENT: Reinforce AD assets, especially anti-ballistic and counter-UAV capabilities, in Kyiv, Odesa, and particularly Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Chernihiv Oblasts, prioritizing those areas susceptible to ballistic missile strikes, KABs, FPV-drones, and Shahed drone attacks (especially with the reported new incendiary warheads and projected future capacity). Accelerate the delivery and integration of new AD systems.
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Implement immediate damage assessment and consequence management for all impacted civilian areas, especially in Kyiv, Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, Putyvl, Nikopol, Zolochiv, Toshkivka, and the destroyed clinic, focusing on search and rescue and rapid structural integrity assessments, given the confirmed fatalities and casualties and prolonged cleanup efforts. Prioritize humanitarian aid to these areas.
3. URGENT/CRITICAL: Implement a nationwide review and upgrade of force protection protocols for all UAF training grounds, assembly areas, and critical infrastructure, and coastal defense areas in Crimea, emphasizing dispersion, camouflage, deception, and rapid relocation/hardening, given RUF's increased targeting of such sites.
4. MEDIUM: Develop and disseminate updated force protection guidance for civilians and first responders addressing the threat of highly incendiary munitions, if the new Shahed warhead is confirmed.

6.3. Ground Forces:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Elevate readiness to maximum alert on the Sumy, Kharkiv, and northern Kyiv/Chernihiv axes. Ensure strategic reserves are postured for rapid deployment to counter a large-scale RUF ground assault. Fully leverage newly constructed fortifications.
2. URGENT: Reinforce forward defensive positions and strategic reserves on the Pokrovsk-Siversk axis and Novopavlivka/Krasnolimansk directions to counter persistent RUF assaults and prevent breakthroughs. Maintain offensive pressure in Kharkiv (clearing operations) and defensive posture in Zaporizhzhia (Kamenske, Novoandreevka, Malinovka) and Belogorovka. Reinforce the Siversk direction.
3. HIGH: Review and adapt UAF drone operations to counter RUF's claimed success against high-value targets (Abrams, UAV control points) and "coptercide" methods. Enhance concealment, mobility, and redundancy for drone crews and equipment. Accelerate fielding of counter-drone EW systems to frontline units and immediately analyze RUF's anti-drone methods for countermeasures. Leverage and promote UAF tactical successes with drones (e.g., RUF personnel capture, drone strikes on RUF personnel, General Staff strike videos, RUF personnel capture, UAF 1129th Regiment AD success, Kara-Dag clearing operations, STERNENKO tactical drone video, Kherson command post strike, Bryansk Oblast strike, fallen RUF soldier video, FPV drone strike on evacuation vehicle).

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch an immediate, aggressive, and sustained, multi-domain counter-IO campaign specifically targeting RUF's escalating fabrications.
   • Directly name and shame Ukrainian media outlets (e.g., РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, ASTRA, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) that are amplifying RUF disinformation and unverified claims, providing immediate, clear, and actionable guidance on ethical reporting during wartime and the severe consequences of aiding enemy propaganda. Implement strict internal guidelines on source verification and the amplification of unconfirmed reports from hostile or unverified sources.
   • Forensically debunk the latest, most kinetic and diplomatic fabrications (e.g., F-35 shootdown, fabricated "Trump" posts, claims of UAF shelling of civilians, fabricated IAEA reports, Hormuz threats, US expectations of Iran strike, Rybar's "Iranian success," Evin Prison strike claims, imminent Iranian strikes, two-year conflict preparations, claims of Iranian missile strikes on US bases in Qatar and Iraq, explosions in Doha/other locations, claims of satellite navigation suppression, and unsubstantiated claims of Israeli Air Force strikes on Tehran), providing clear evidence of their falsehood, especially highlighting the conflicting official reports from Qatar and Iran, and the US Pentagon's confirmation of the strike but denial of casualties.
   • Launch an overwhelming and unequivocal international campaign to refute Russia's baseless claim that Ukraine was behind the Krokus City Hall attack, now including the Investigative Committee's "findings" and Rybar's "customer identified" claims, and its link to the Prigozhin anniversary. Highlight this as a desperate and dangerous attempt to create a pretext for further escalation and severe war crimes.
   • Address and deconstruct Военкор Котенок's new "conspiracy of the elites" narrative, and Alex Parker Returns' "Third World War is over" narrative, explaining them as cynical attempts by RUF to manage internal and external perceptions of its fabricated global conflict, demonstrating its own lack of credibility. Explicitly counter RUF's celebration of "Iranian victory" and Trump's "peace" statements regarding the Middle East as a controlled, manufactured resolution to a fabricated crisis.
   • Frame Russia's actions as a deliberate, desperate attempt to create global chaos and divert attention from its war crimes and failures in Ukraine.
   • Proactively counter RUF accusations against third-party arms suppliers (e.g., Serbia), providing verifiable information on all aid and highlighting RUF's intent to sow discord.
   • Aggressively counter RUF's misinformation regarding body repatriation, providing transparent and documented procedures.
   • Address internal social order issues exposed by IO, such as the "drifting" video in Kyiv, by reinforcing civic duty and demonstrating accountability.
   • Support and amplify patriotic voices that demand clear allegiance from public figures (e.g., critique of Lomachenko).
   • Proactively counter rumors of declining AD effectiveness with factual data and expert commentary.
   • Carefully manage messaging regarding territorial goals (e.g., "Never fantasized about the 91st borders") to ensure clarity and avoid misinterpretation by allies or adversaries.
2. URGENT: Intensify diplomatic engagement with key international partners, particularly the US, UK, EU, and Canada, to share granular intelligence on RUF's escalating hybrid warfare, including the new Shahed warhead characteristics, the continued global diversion/blame-shifting, and the new level of IO with fabricated kinetic events and nuclear threats, and the unsubstantiated Israeli strikes on Tehran. Coordinate a unified international response to publicly denounce and debunk RUF's fabrications and warn of their escalatory intent. Express gratitude for the committed aid from EU and Canada, and for humanitarian support. Publicize President Zelenskyy's high-level diplomatic meetings, including the upcoming speech in the Netherlands, and his meetings with Ukrainian defenders and Chatham House. Highlight Naftogaz's legal victory against Gazprom as a demonstration of Ukrainian resilience and international legal adherence. Publicize the joint drone production agreement with the UK.
3. HIGH: Develop and disseminate clear, concise public messages for civilians in Kyiv and other threatened cities on the nature of RUF's attacks and any new munition characteristics (e.g., incendiary Shahed warheads), reinforcing UAF's commitment to defense and ensuring public safety protocols are understood. Publicly highlight increased civilian casualties as direct evidence of RUF war crimes, including the destruction of the clinic.
4. MEDIUM: Proactively message UAF successes, particularly counter-intelligence operations (e.g., prevention of assassination attempts on President Zelenskyy and other high-value figures), tactical successes (e.g., RUF personnel capture by drones, D-30 artillery engagements, UAF drone strikes, General Staff strike videos, Rostov oil depot strike, AD successes, Kharkiv clearing operations, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС offensive video, STERNENKO tactical drone video, Kherson command post strike, Bryansk Oblast strike, fallen RUF soldier video, FPV drone strike on evacuation vehicle), and strategic capabilities (e.g., Sapsan OTRK production, joint UK drone production). Leverage powerful testimonials like the Azov Regiment video to boost morale and counter RUF dehumanization. Consistently highlight confirmed international aid (€35B from partners) and citizen fundraising to reinforce morale and international backing.

END OF REPORT