Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 231220Z JUN 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Kyiv Oblast:
  • Kyiv City: Confirmed eight (8) fatalities (7 city, 1 Bila Tserkva) and 33 wounded from night attack. Multi-story residential building fire and significant structural damage in Shevchenkivskyi District, consistent with a direct ballistic missile strike to the basement (MIA Klymenko). Damage to a bus stop in Sviatoshynskyi District (3 casualties, vehicle fires). Fire in a non-residential building in Podilskyi District. Damaged business center and other objects in Solomyanskyi District. Missile fragments hit KPI swimming pool, causing serious damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) KCMA is creating Air Defense (AD) groups based on volunteer territorial community formations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kyiv Oblast (Bila Tserkva): Confirmed multiple impacts at Greblya Club complex, a hotel, medical clinic, residential buildings, and a hospital (Shahed hit), resulting in 1 fatality. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kyiv Oblast (General): Head of Kyiv OVA reports three districts affected. RUF MoD claims strikes on military industrial complex (MIC) enterprises, military airfield infrastructure, and a naval mine-torpedo armament arsenal in Kyiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim).
• Zhytomyr Oblast: Threat of enemy UAVs declared. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kharkiv Oblast: Air Force of Ukraine reports launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs). RUF forces captured Petrovske. Kharkiv OVA Head reports 4 settlements hit by enemy strikes over past day. New threat of enemy UAVs declared. RUF milblogger video claims "partisans" liquidated two UAF militants from 154th Brigade in Kharkiv using a "mined scooter" (likely false-flag/assassination). Rally in Kharkiv in support of missing/captured defenders confirmed. Clashes reported in Vovchansk, Stroyivka, Fyholivka (South Slobozhansky), Stepova Novoselivka, Zelenyi Hai, and towards Holubivka (Kupyansk). 20 RUF assaults repelled at Sumy/Kursk direction. RUF video shows damaged/destroyed UAF vehicles and personnel in Kupyansk direction. UAF (SBU Cyber Department) reportedly prevented an attempt by RUF agents to blow up a UAF soldier in Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF milblogger imagery indicates activity in Kharkiv direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Donetsk Oblast: Air Force of Ukraine reports KAB launches. RUF forces captured Perebudova. RUF sources claim a FAB strike on a UAF stronghold in Yalta area. Poddubny claims drone strikes on UAF logistics and personnel near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). RUF MoD video claims T-80BVM tank obliterated UAF stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction. UAF 82nd Airmobile Brigade drone hunting "motor-katsaps" (RUF personnel on motorcycles). RUF MoD video shows combat service support delivering food and ammunition using FPV drones in Krasny Liman direction. RUF milblogger claims show a drone observing a damaged armored vehicle with '69 ОБрП' insignia. RUF milblogger soliciting donations for Pokrovsk direction. TASS claims Pushilin states UAF redeploying reserves west of Krasnoarmeysk. RUF video claims continued offensive operations, "breaking through enemy defenses in Krasnoarmeysk area," with mortar fire. RUF video claims "camouflage did not save UAF relay stations and dugouts from drone strikes of 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment." RUF video claims "damage to a UAF position in Shevchenko by drone operators of 57th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade." Clashes reported near Myrne, Promin, Novoserhiyivka, Udachne, Kotlyarivka, Muravka, Oleksiyivka (Pokrovsk); Dyliyivka, Toretsk, Leonidivka, Rusyn Yar, Yablunivka (Toretsk); Chasiv Yar, Predtechyne, Bila Hora (Kramatorsk); Hryhorivka, Ivano-Daryivka (Siversk); and Novyy Myr, Karpivka, Ridkodub, Tverdokhlibove, Kolodyazi (Lyman). Ukrainian 1st Tank Brigade tank engaging enemy positions near Yablunivka/Yunakovka. Hailstorm in Yenakievo consistent with weather narrative. RUF video shows artillery strike on suspected UAF mortar position, claiming destruction of UAF mortars by 80th separate reconnaissance battalion "Sparta." UAF (SBU Cyber Department) reports striking a Russian radar station on a trailer, 2 motorcycles, a RUF soldier, a truck, and a van in Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Mash na Donbasse reports a storm hit Donetsk causing trees to fall. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) "Voenkor DV" provides an update on the South Donetsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Video from BUUTSOV PLUS claims UAF destroyed RUF mortar and equipment with personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO reports search and rescue operation completed in Kramatorsk at KAB strike site on residential building. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF source "Slivochny Kapriz" reports activity in Velyka Novosilka - Shevchenko area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district): Air Force of Ukraine reports threat of enemy aerial weapons employment. Nikopolshchyna targeted again by RUF FPV-drones and shelling. TASS claims RUF used FAB to destroy a UAF command post on border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. TASS claims UAF redeployed foreign mercenaries and women to Yanvarskoye. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - first part, MEDIUM/LOW for TASS claims). RUF source "Operatsiya Z" reports FAB strike destroyed UAF command post on border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Zaporizhzhia Direction: Zaporizhzhia OVA reports partial restoration of electricity. Zaporizhzhia OVA shares video of moment of silence for fallen defenders. Photo details pension payments for disabled military personnel. RUF sources claim liberation of a settlement in Zaporizhzhia (fourth this month, UAF fleeing). FSB detained two Zaporizhzhia residents for spying for SBU (RUF claim). Clashes near Novoandriyivka (Orikhiv direction), and Kamyanske, Novodanylivka for RUF airstrikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Zaporizhzhia OVA confirms completion of anti-drone tunnel construction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Air raid alert has been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Sumy Oblast: President Zelenskyy confirms a 52,000-strong RUF force concentration on the Sumy axis. UAF conducted successful localized counter-offensive, liberating Andriyivka. RUF sources providing detailed "frontline summaries." Defensive preparations and anti-tank obstacles confirmed. RUF airstrikes on Yastrubyne, Nova Sich, Sadky. 20 RUF assaults repelled in Kursk and North Slobozhansky direction. TASS and Операция Z videos claim Iskander missile strike hit a training center for mobilized personnel in Sumy, resulting in up to 100 UAF casualties (RUF claim, visual support). RUF MoD confirmed Iskander strike on a training center for mobilized AFU servicemen near Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Air Force of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF milblogger "Два майора" posts video from "Sumy direction" of a soldier thanking for a vehicle used on front lines. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Mykolaiv Oblast (Ochakiv): Two Kh-59/69 Guided Aerial Missiles (KABs) struck Ochakiv, wounding three, damaging 2 multi-story buildings, 22 private homes, power lines, and civilian cars. RUF airstrikes on Mykolayivka. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports a meeting scheduled for 15:00 today. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Nikolaevsky Vanek reports ballistic missile on Ovidopol and strike in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports repeated launch. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Chernihiv Oblast: Unspecified "Snovska hromada village" outskirts hit by Lancet UAV, resulting in two (2) fatalities and ten (10) wounded, including children. Video claims "Gerans" (Shaheds) actively worked against targets in Chernihiv Oblast overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kherson Oblast: 2 RUF army assaults repelled. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Odesa Oblast: Air raid alert declared due to ballistic missile threat from Crimea towards Odesa Oblast (Ovidopol, Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF struck a training institution in Odesa Oblast with a ballistic missile; people may be under the rubble. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF struck a training institution in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi with a ballistic missile. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Threat of ballistic weaponry employment lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RUF Internal (Smolensk, Bryansk, Rostov, Volgograd, Astrakhan, Belgorod, Kursk, St. Petersburg, Nizhnekamsk, Ilovaisk, Chechnya, Tatarstan, Karelia): UAF drones continue to successfully strike RUF assets deep inside Russian territory (Smolensk, Bryansk, Rostov). RUF MoD and milbloggers claim 23 UAVs intercepted over Rostov, Volgograd, and Astrakhan Oblasts. Belgorod Oblast Deputy Governor arrested. RUF using domestic news as IO distractions. Russian passport issued to "Tajikistan native" participating in "special military operation." RUF AD intercepted 16 plane-type UAVs over Russia. Man arrested in St. Petersburg for financing an "extremist organization." Fire in Rostov Oblast on territory of Rosrezerv's "Atlas" combine after impacts (successful UAF deep strike). Banner in St. Petersburg near "SVO temple" construction site reads "No place for a temple here." Video from Moscow shows migrants butchering a ram on a children's playground. Video from Moscow shows Mercedes on fire in a tunnel. Dangerous criminal presented to children by officials (domestic propaganda). Arrest in Nizhnekamsk for preparing terrorist attack on petrochemical complex (with confession video). Fatal car accident under Ilovaisk. TASS video claims Investigative Committee opened terrorism cases after UAF missile strikes on Kursk Oblast on June 16 and 17 (with visual evidence of residential damage). Tactical map with elements suggesting operation in Kursk Oblast. RUF Mil. Police head killed attempting to detain looters in Sudzhansky District, Kursk Oblast. FSB prevented a terrorist attack in Tatarstan and arrested a sponsor of an extremist organization in St. Petersburg. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Sever.Realiy reports residents of three villages in Karelia complaining about lack of bus service. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) "Operativny ZSU" reports "discreditation moment" in Sudzha. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ASTRA reports Kursk Oblast Military Police head killed during detention of looters. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) WarGonzo reports a Ukrainian militant sentenced to 17 years for crimes in Kursk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Situation controlled. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Overall: RUF continues a multi-vector, multi-munition kinetic attack, with Kyiv as primary target for missile/UAV strikes, resulting in significant damage to residential and non-residential civilian infrastructure and increased casualties across Kyiv City and Oblast, now including Bila Tserkva. The concurrent UAV threat in Zhytomyr and KAB/missile strikes in Kharkiv/Donetsk/Mykolaiv/Dnipropetrovsk/Chernihiv/Odesa indicate continued saturation attempts and pressure across multiple axes. RUF ground forces continue attritional assaults in Donetsk and Kharkiv, securing minor gains, while a significant force concentration looms on the Sumy axis, and UAF liberated Andriyivka. A new Lancet strike in Chernihiv Oblast causing civilian casualties indicates a continued, broad targeting of civilian areas. RUF is demonstrating robust logistical sustainment for frontline operations. UAF reports indicate potential use of DPRK ballistic missiles by RUF in Kyiv attack. RUF continues offensive operations in Krasnoarmeysk area, and drone strikes against UAF positions. UAF conducted a successful deep strike on a Russian storage facility in Rostov Oblast and destroyed a Russian radar system. RUF MoD claims all targets were hit in Kyiv Oblast (military-industrial enterprises, military airfield infrastructure, and a naval mine-torpedo armament arsenal), directly conflicting with UAF reports of civilian impacts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The number of casualties in Kyiv has increased to 33 wounded and 8 fatalities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF reports the serial production of the "Oreshnik" missile system has begun. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF will receive over 13,000 new officers from military academies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF struck a training institution in Odesa Oblast with a ballistic missile; people may be under the rubble. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF struck a training institution in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi with a ballistic missile. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

• Night conditions continue to complicate UAF Air Defense (AD) visual identification of incoming threats. Severe hailstorm in Yenakievo, Donetsk Oblast, indicating localized severe weather affecting ground operations. Mash na Donbasse reports a storm hit Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Moscow subway information screen indicates 23°C in Moscow, irrelevant to Ukraine operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF):
  • Air Defense (AD): Engaged against incoming cruise missiles and UAVs, successfully intercepting 28/47 UAVs and 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles. Air Force of Ukraine reports 354/368 aerial targets neutralized. KCMA is creating AD groups on the basis of volunteer territorial community formations. Air Force of Ukraine reports ballistic missile threat from the south and KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Air Force: Providing timely warnings of KAB launches and aerial weapons threats. MiG-29 successfully deployed AASM HAMMER on RUF targets in Kozynka (Belgorod Oblast, Russia). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kyiv City Military Administration (KCMA): Actively providing real-time updates on impacts, damage, and casualties (8 fatalities, 33 wounded). Creating AD groups based on volunteer formations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Emergency Services (DSNS): Responding to fires and providing aid to casualties in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast, including rescuing a child and a pregnant woman. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • General Staff of UAF: Providing official updates, including estimated RUF losses (6483 officers "demobilized" since Feb 2022). Reports on ongoing clashes and repelled assaults across multiple axes. 23rd Separate Mechanized Brigade conducting a psychological obstacle course. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Grouping of Forces of Unmanned Systems: Newly established and operational, with Norway providing $400M for drones and NASAMS producer opening office in Ukraine. STERNENKO reports acquiring 500 FPV drones in past two days, 197,563 FPV drones overall. Norway will also develop and manufacture uncrewed vessels in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration: Reports partial power restoration and moment of silence for fallen defenders. Confirms completion of anti-drone tunnel construction. Air raid alert has been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Office of the General Prosecutor: Documenting damage and casualties in Kyiv (8 fatalities, over 33 wounded) for war crimes proceedings. Confirms completion of search and rescue operation in Kramatorsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Coordination Staff for POWs: GUR and MFA evacuated 176 people from Israel (133 Ukrainian citizens). Photos show meeting with POW families and rally in Kharkiv for missing/captured defenders. A meeting was held with families of servicemen from the 42nd Separate Mechanized Brigade. Also providing psychological advice for families preparing to meet liberated POWs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Reconnaissance (DSHV): Shares video depicting reconnaissance soldiers, their training, equipment, and use of thermal optics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Medical Services (47th Mechanized Brigade): Shares video of medical care for wounded soldier. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • SBU Special Operations (ЦСО «А» СБУ): New video shows soldiers in tactical gear; greeting from Head of SBU to 31st anniversary of Center "A" showcases operational capabilities. Cyber Department of SBU struck a Russian radar station on a trailer, 2 motorcycles, a RUF soldier, a truck, and a van in Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) SBU and National Police arrested RUF agents who attempted to blow up a UAF soldier in Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) SBU Head General Maliuk claims SSU accounts for every sixth tank hit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) DeepState posts video highlighting SBU 'A' Center's operations, including drone strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) SBU also reported uncovering an FSB network in Kyiv preparing an assassination attempt on Dmytro Gordon. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • 82nd Airmobile Brigade: Drone pilots actively targeting RUF personnel in Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Presidential Activities: President Zelenskyy reacted to the night attack, condemning RUF's "cynical strike" on civilian infrastructure. Accused Russia of using DPRK ballistic missiles. Arrived in the UK for deeper defense cooperation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ukrainian Police: Engaged in response efforts. National Police report RUF transfers bodies of dead in "terrible condition," 6,000 bodies identified expected to take a year. RUF returned three bodies of Russian military personnel in 2025. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • National Guard (NGU): "Rubizh" brigade collecting funds to restore destroyed property and equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration: Celebrating Public Service Day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • 1st Tank Brigade (1 OTBr): Tank engaging enemy positions near Yablunivka/Yunakovka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ukroboronprom: Starting cooperation with Airbus. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kharkiv OVA: Head of Kharkiv OVA congratulated state civil servants. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Russian Forces (RUF):
  • Kinetic Operations:
    • Missile/UAV Strikes: Confirmed impacts in Kyiv, Bila Tserkva, Ochakiv, Chernihiv, and Odesa Oblast. RUF sources claim Iskander use (now with confirmed hits on KPI by UAF sources and MIA Klymenko confirming ballistic strike on a residential building) and potential DPRK ballistic missile use suggests renewed willingness to expend high-value ballistic missiles in urban saturation attacks, alongside cruise missiles and UAVs, to overwhelm AD. RUF also maintains capability for widespread KAB launches on frontline oblasts and confirmed aerial weapon threat to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and use of Kh-59/69 in Mykolaiv. RUF demonstrated capability to plan and execute both mass combined-arms strikes (Kremenchuk) and precision strikes against high-value military targets (UAF training ground, claimed UAF Navy arsenal in Kyiv Oblast, and confirmed Sumy training center). New confirmed strikes on civilian infrastructure in Bila Tserkva (hospital, Greblya Club, hotel, medical clinic, residential) and Chernihiv (Lancet strike on village outskirts) indicate continued, deliberate targeting of non-military sites. Two Kh-59/69 KABs struck Ochakiv. Lancet strike confirmed in Chernihiv. WarGonzo photo claims "RUF conducted mass drone attack on Kyiv." Video claims "Gerans" (Shaheds) actively worked against targets across multiple Oblasts overnight. RUF MoD claims strike on military facilities in Kyiv Oblast and a UAF Navy arsenal. TASS and Операция Z videos claim Iskander strike hit training center in Sumy (up to 100 UAF casualties). RUF MoD confirmed Iskander strike on a training center for mobilized AFU servicemen near Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claims on Sumy, Israel/Iran are IO) Operatsiya Z claims "Geran-2" drones inflicted powerful strikes on militants' positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF milblogger "Starshe Edda" posts multiple videos of smoke plumes in Kyiv, claiming new strikes. RUF source "NgP raZVedka" discusses "night decommunization" (RUF term for strikes). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF struck a training institution in Odesa Oblast with a ballistic missile; people may be under the rubble. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF struck a training institution in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi with a ballistic missile. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAV Operations: Threat declared for Zhytomyr and Kharkiv. FPV drones used against Nikopolshchyna. Lancet used in Chernihiv. Poddubny claims drone strikes on UAF logistics and personnel near Krasnoarmeysk. RUF MoD video shows FPV drones delivering food and ammunition in Krasny Liman direction. RUF AD intercepted 16 UAVs. RUF video claims "camouflage did not save UAF relay stations and dugouts from drone strikes of 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment." RUF video claims "damage to a UAF position in Shevchenko by drone operators of 57th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade." Heavily modified UAZ vehicle with metal spikes claimed as anti-FPV drone protection. "Drone-bomber in action?" suggests RUF developing drone bomber capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) "Воин DV" posts video of a "Sedoy" UAV operator from the 69th brigade attacking UAF heavy drones with an aerial ramming tactic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • KAB Launches: Confirmed launches on Kharkiv and Donetsk. Aerial weapons threat for Dnipropetrovsk. RUF sources claim FAB strike on UAF stronghold in Yalta area. TASS claims FAB destroyed UAF command post on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. Air Force of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Artillery/Mortar Strikes: RUF video shows artillery strike on suspected UAF mortar position, claiming destruction by 80th separate reconnaissance battalion "Sparta." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Ground Offensive: RUF forces captured Perebudova (Donetsk) and Petrovske (Kharkiv). RUF sources claim destruction of UAF armored vehicles near Novosergievka. MoD Russia video claims T-80BVM tank obliterated UAF stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction. RUF milblogger claims show drone observing damaged armored vehicle with '69 ОБрП' insignia. RUF video claims continued offensive operations, "breaking through enemy defenses in Krasnoarmeysk area." RUF sources claim liberation of a settlement in Zaporizhzhia (with visual evidence). RUF activity claimed in Borova - Petrovske (Grekovka) area (Lyman direction, Kharkiv). "Воин DV" video claims 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade destroyed UAF Humvee in Shevchenko area. Clashes reported across multiple directions. RUF video shows damaged/destroyed UAF vehicles and personnel in Kupyansk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF source "Slivochny Kapriz" posts video of a damaged armored vehicle, possibly UAF, and claims activity in Velyka Novosilka - Shevchenko area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Logistics: Videos showcase RUF fuel and supply logistics units operating 24/7 in Kherson region, water delivery near Artemovsk, and transport of heavy military equipment. RUF MoD video shows FPV drones used for logistics. Colonelcassad fundraising for "SUMMER CAMPAIGN 2025." Minpromtorg of RF will prepare a proposal to extend parallel imports until 2026. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports Minpromtorg may include Russian paint for car bodies in localization requirements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Information Operations (IO):
    • Battlefield Claims: RUF milbloggers rapidly posting claims of successful strikes in Kyiv (with visual "evidence") and "frontline summaries." Rybar photo features "Victory Narrative" banner. WarGonzo claims "Rostec began supplying the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation with the newest guided missiles." TASS claims Iskander strike on Sumy training center (up to 100 UAF casualties). RUF MoD claims strike on military facilities in Kyiv Oblast and a UAF Navy arsenal. RUF MoD claims Iskander hit training center near Sumy. Operatsiya Z claims "Geran-2" drones inflicted powerful strikes on militants' positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF source "NgP raZVedka" discusses "night decommunization" (RUF term for strikes). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF milblogger "Starshe Edda" posts videos of smoke plumes in Kyiv, claiming new strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF source "Slivochny Kapriz" reports activity in Velyka Novosilka - Shevchenko area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) "Dva Mayora" posts video of a captured H&K M320A1 grenade launcher, labelled as "trophy." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF reports the serial production of the "Oreshnik" missile system has begun. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF reports it will receive over 13,000 new officers from military academies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Atrocity Fabrications: TASS disseminating "evidence" of UAF "finishing off" wounded RUF soldiers. Claim of UAF drone attack on bus stop in Svatove (LPR) likely false-flag. RUF milblogger video claims "partisans" liquidated UAF militants in Kharkiv using "mined scooter." TASS video claims FSB detained Zaporizhzhia residents for spying for SBU (likely forced confession). TASS video claims Investigative Committee opened terrorism cases after UAF missile strikes on Kursk Oblast on June 16 and 17 (with visual evidence of residential damage). FSB prevented a terrorist attack in Tatarstan and arrested a sponsor of an extremist organization in St. Petersburg. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) WarGonzo reports a Ukrainian militant sentenced to 17 years for crimes in Kursk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Global Diversion (ESCALATED, NEW CLAIMS, Sustained Amplification): TASS continues to push "global oil shock" if Strait of Hormuz closed. RUF milbloggers disseminating "preliminary assessment of US strike damage" in Iran. WarGonzo claims "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran." TASS fabricates "US Air Force used diversionary maneuver with two B-2 groups during bombing of Iran." TASS reports Iran will continue uranium enrichment. TASS reports Russia plans to cancel visas with Myanmar, Jordan, Bahrain. TASS reports Japan's PM pulling out of NATO summit due to US strike on Iran. TASS claims Putin to meet with Iranian FM on June 23. Basurin claims "Marco Rubio believes world safer after US strikes on Iran." TASS claims Israel strikes six airfields in Iran. Alex Parker Returns amplifies fabricated NYT report: "Iran evacuated equipment and uranium from Fordo." Colonelcassad reports Iran will continue uranium enrichment, citing CNN. TASS: "Russia conducting contacts with Americans, including on situation around Iran." Операция Z amplifies fabricated IDF statement: "Israeli aviation again strikes military infrastructure in Iran." Kotsnews on "Militarization of ports and Trump's risky move." Два майора video purports to show "Anti-war protests began in New York after US strikes on Iran." TASS cites NYT: "US does not know where Iran moved its uranium reserves." Alex Parker Returns mocks "bloody Netanyahu." Басурин о главном warns of oil price spike if Iran blocks Strait of Hormuz. Alex Parker Returns photo "Iron Dome. Results." Alex Parker Returns video on "children of US citizens living and dying on front lines." Video claims "Protests against Trump's decision to strike Iranian nuclear facilities were held in the USA." Photo: "How Western countries support Moldovan puppet president Maia Sandu." Старше Эдды promotes "Russia invites partners to form a new platform for global growth." TASS claims "USA can deprive Europe of internet." TASS claims Ben Gurion airport resumes operations. TASS claims "Iran attacked all Israeli territory with missiles and kamikaze drones," citing IRGC. TASS claims Iranian ballistic missiles Kheibar Shekan, Emad, Qadr and Fattah-1 used in attack on Israel. TASS claims buildings damaged after US strike on Iranian nuclear facility in Isfahan, citing Grossi. TASS claims uranium enrichment facility damaged after US strike on Iranian nuclear facility in Natanz, citing Grossi. TASS claims Israel again attacked Iranian nuclear facility in Fordo. Операция Z claims US strike on Iran prepared in advance, citing Washington Post. Colonelcassad videos show anti-war protests in Chicago, San Francisco, San Diego, New York. Colonelcassad video shows symbolic flags of Israel and Iran. Alex Parker Returns video shows smoke over Tehran, claims new bombs and power outages. Оперативний ЗСУ amplifies Reuters report that Iran sent MFA head to Russia to ask Putin for help with Ayatollah regime. TASS claims US strike on Fordo did not cause significant damage, citing Qom authorities. TASS from Peskov states Putin and Trump open to calls. TASS from Peskov contains "main statements." TASS claims Putin called US aggression against Iran "unprovoked" and "unjustified." TASS claims Putin stated Russia is helping Iranian people. TASS claims Iranian MFA Aragchi stated escalation in Middle East due to US/Israel aggression. Colonelcassad photo shows Mali General Assimi Goita arriving in Moscow. Kotsnews photo shows map of potential Iranian strike targets. Басурин о главном references new program. TASS reports Putin discussed Middle East with Iraqi PM. Colonelcassad message reports Iranian MFA demands active role from Russia. Alex Parker Returns message amplifies Lithuanian MFA statement demanding Iran choose "peaceful path." TASS claims Israel attacked Evin prison in Tehran. Kotsnews asks if Iran attacked US base. TASS claims Naryshkin stated US did not warn RF about strike on Iran. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - mostly RUF IO/Fabrication). TASS reports US via regional countries conveyed Israel's intention to end conflict to Iran. WarGonzo claims Israeli strikes on Tehran targeted IRGC HQ. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Alex Parker Returns reports "Kaja Kallas will propose sanctions against Israel for human rights violations." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Alex Parker Returns posted multiple photos, captioning one "The beautiful era of neural networks and Wikipedias. What more proof do you need?" This implies the use of AI/deepfake technology to generate disinformation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad reports UAE condemnation of Israel's call for Arab funding for war with Iran. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Poddubny discusses Putin's harsh assessment of US actions against Iran. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Operatsiya Z reports Netanyahu claims Israel close to achieving war goals with Iran. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Mockery/Dehumanization: RUF channels using taunting language ("Kyiv is getting better," "wails of Khokhols"). "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posting unrelated "fluffy cuteness." Alex Parker Returns mocks Ukrainian musician whose apartment damaged, and poet. Photos mocking deceased individuals. Alex Parker Returns photo mocks Israel's claim of destroying "countdown clock" in Tehran. "Dnevnik Desantnika" posted a photo mocking "Khokhlyatsky business." Colonelcassad mocked a person whose apartment was hit in Kyiv, stating he "still does not grasp the connection between the Nazi regime in Kyiv and what is happening in Ukraine." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - last is LOW CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns posts photo of a scientific research facility, implying significant damage, using it in an anti-Israel context. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Normalizing Occupation: RUF channels posting celebratory videos from occupied Mariupol. Claim "Ukronazi Biletsky" promised to retake Mariupol. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Dehumanizing Ukraine/UAF: TASS reports Apty Alaudinov on Ukraine's SBU wanted list. "Russia will remove Ukrainian language/literature from federal program." Video shows interview with two individuals discussing recruitment (RUF IO to fabricate forced mobilization). TASS claims UAF redeployed foreign mercenaries and women to Yanvarskoye. Photo claims "leader of Georgian mercenaries...left ranks." Video claims "Russia is actively forming Ukrainian anti-fascist units." Photo of Russian military items found with bodies during repatriations. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" photo claims "traitor of Russia" included in exchange. RUF media claims schools in occupied territories will no longer teach "Native (Ukrainian) language" and Ukrainian literature. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) "RBK-Ukraine" shares an article about "army of debtors" and how Russia "buys" "volunteers" for the war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Exaggerated UAF Losses: TASS, citing Andrey Marochko, claims 4,100 killed/wounded on LPR frontlines last week. TASS claims Iskander strike on Sumy training center resulted in up to 100 UAF casualties. (LOW-HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claims).
    • Historical Pretext: RUF state-media/milblogger channels invoking 22 June 1941 anniversary. Два майора photo shows monument opening at Brest Fortress. Video from Uzbekistan celebrating Soviet Naval Veterans. Fighterbomber message recalls 2nd anniversary of Wagner mutiny. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Kotsnews video on Olympic Games politicization, linking it to sanctions against Russian athletes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS posts videos of Putin stating Russia is fighting for its future and will continue to develop its armed forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Domestic Diversion/Control: TASS reports Ministry of Digital Development proposes banning phone number reprogramming. News from Moscow reports bill banning vape sales. ASTRA reports criminal cases against teenage schoolgirls. Север.Реалии reports deterioration of medical services. Архангел Спецназа promotes "God's Eye" surveillance. Mobilizatsia | Novosti | Srochniki shares info on bot. Дневник Десантника fundraising. TASS reports fatalities from bear attack. Архангел Спецназа photo claims "One of the traitors who went over to the AFU was handed over...to Russia." TASS video reports arrests in Moscow for "Alrosa diamond theft." Новости Москвы photo reports "Anaplasmosis-carrying ticks" spreading. Новости Москвы video reports "tiny newborn." MOBILIZATSIA | Novosti | Srochniki message reports wounded soldier hunger strike. Север.Реалии reports journalist released from prison. TASS reports Russia condemns "terrorist attack in Damascus." Новости Москвы photo on weather. TASS video reports man arrested in St. Petersburg for financing "extremist organization." Новости Москвы highlights "terraced skyscraper." Mash на Донбассе ad for "electric toothbrushes." Alex Parker Returns video shows migrants butchering ram in Moscow. Alex Parker Returns video of Mercedes fire in Moscow tunnel. MOBILIZATSIA | Novosti | Srochniki photo of dangerous criminal presented to children. ASTRA reports arrest in Nizhnekamsk for preparing terrorist attack. TASS: Yuri Antonov refutes hospitalization. WarGonzo video features an 'Eskimo' who went to SVO. Fighterbomber photo highlights wristwatch. Mash na Donbasse video reports fatal car accident under Ilovaisk. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 soliciting donations. TASS photo of Kirsty Coventry. Kadyrov_95 video shows opening of new water training ground for Russian Special Forces University. TASS reports changes to exam requirements for migrants. Два майора video promoting sauna brooms. FSB prevented a terrorist attack in Tatarstan and arrested a sponsor of an extremist organization in St. Petersburg. Sever.Realiy reports residents of three villages in Karelia complaining about lack of bus service. TASS reports Minpromtorg will prepare a proposal to extend parallel imports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports prosecutor requests 14.5 years for Timur Ivanov for embezzlement. ASTRA also reports on Ivanov's case. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS video shows casualties from Damascus church attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports arrested entrepreneur Samvel Karapetyan's defense withdrew appeal. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF milblogger "Arkhangel Spetsnaza" posts patches of "Wolf Cub 45," symbolizing courage and combat brotherhood. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports Medvedev predicted investigations against Kyiv authorities in Congress and a deplorable end for them due to US fund expenditures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports Putin holds traditional meeting with military academy graduates. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports Putin states West invented "Russian threat." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Arkhangel Spetsnaza reports Putin tasked psychological rehabilitation for soldiers returning from combat zones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Military-Political Work: Messages discuss "military-political work in the troops" and "moral-psychological state of servicemen." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Accusations against Serbia: TASS reports SVR claims Serbia uses bypass routes to export military products to Ukraine. TASS claims Moscow regrets Serbia sacrifices friendship with Russia for profit and cowardly multi-vector policy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) "Voenkor Kotenok" amplifies SVR claims against Serbia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Alex Parker Returns amplifies SVR claims against Serbia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Ukrainian Media: РБК-Україна and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS disseminating tactical analysis of images from Kyiv attack, focusing on visual details of destruction and emergency response. РБК-Україна highlights damage to Ukrainian musician's apartment. STERNENKO highlights need for military aid. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms missile fragments hitting KPI pool. Оперативний ЗСУ shares images on national moment of silence and UAF AD interception stats. Север.Реалии reports on Kyiv attack fatalities. РБК-Україна reports on Lancet strike in Chernihiv. РБК-Україна reports KCMA confirmation of married couple killed in Kyiv. Оперативний ЗСУ video shows damaged business center in Solomyanskyi District. President Zelenskyy reacting to night attack. РБК-Україна reports 7 fatalities, now 8 fatalities and 33 wounded. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 image shows "Estimated enemy losses." Олександр Вілкул photo confirms SBU Special Operations Center "Alpha" activities. РБК-Україна photo claims President Zelenskyy announced visit to Britain (LOW CONFIDENCE). President Zelenskyy's statement accusing Russia of using DPRK ballistic missiles. Оперативний ЗСУ video shows GUR and MFA evacuating 176 people from Israel. Photo shows policeman in uniform. 23rd Separate Mechanized Brigade conducting psychological obstacle course. 31 wounded in Kyiv. Ongoing search and rescue efforts. National Police report "RF usually transfers bodies of dead in terrible condition." NGU "Rubizh" brigade fundraising. Messages express frustration with perceived ineffectiveness of sanctions and lack of weapons. Tsaplienko reports fire in Rostov Oblast on Rosrezerv's "Atlas" combine. Оперативний ЗСУ and Rybar continue to amplify fabricated Israeli attacks on Iran (LOW CONFIDENCE - Amplification of RUF IO). STERNENKO reports Lancet strike on Chernihiv, confirming fatalities. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides quote from Commander "Ramzes" on changing air combat. РБК-Україна reports New Zealand $9M+ aid package. DeepState video shows Ukrainian 1st Tank Brigade tank engaging enemy positions. Оперативний ЗСУ message reports Israel attacked Iran's Fordo nuclear facility and Iran sent MFA head to Russia. РБК-Україна video features MIA Klymenko discussing identification of 6,000 bodies transferred by RUF. STERNENKO video shows UAF destroying Russian radar system. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС post highlights Russian propaganda linking Ukraine to Iran events. Air Force of Ukraine message declares "Attention!" ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video features MIA Klymenko discussing Kyiv ballistic missile strike directly hitting residential building basement. РБК-Україна video features MIA Klymenko stating RUF returned three bodies of Russian military personnel to Ukraine. РБК-Україна video features Vitaliy Povstyany stating bodies transferred from RUF are in increasingly worse condition. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна messages report President Zelenskyy arrived in the UK for deeper defense cooperation. Ukrainian media reports that Hungary and Slovakia blocked the 18th EU sanctions package against Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Operativny ZSU reports SBU and National Police arrested RUF agents in Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Tsaplienko reports that Russia has equipped Tu-95MS strategic bombers with missiles, and almost all aircraft are ready in the Far East. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Nikolaevsky Vanek reports a meeting scheduled for 15:00 today. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RBK-Ukraine reports the government appointed an interim head of the Tax Service. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ reports air raid alert due to ballistic missile threat from Crimea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Zaporizhzhia OVA confirms anti-drone tunnel construction completion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ reports Norway will develop and manufacture uncrewed vessels in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlits" posts video of a massive explosion, claiming "successfully demobilized." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Tsaplienko posts video of SBU Special Operations, claiming SSU accounts for every sixth tank hit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the serial production of the "Oreshnik" missile system has begun (amplifying RUF claim). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна reports RUF struck a training institution in Odesa Oblast with a ballistic missile. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ reports RUF struck a training institution in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi with a ballistic missile. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno sets a start time for 20:00. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) DeepState displays photos of winners of PS5 for donations to 93rd Mechanized Brigade and 35th Marine Brigade. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • External Media/Organizations: ASTRA is fundraising for salaries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• HIGH: Conduct immediate Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) in Kyiv and Bila Tserkva to confirm munition types (especially Iskander and potential DPRK ballistic missile claims, confirmed ballistic strike by MIA Klymenko), specific targets hit (e.g., KPI vs. civilian infrastructure, Greblya Club/hotel/clinic/hospital vs. military targets), and the extent of damage to residential vs. military/industrial sites, specifically contrasting with RUF MoD claims of military targets. Also, conduct immediate BDA in Odesa Oblast and Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi to confirm the nature of the training institution hit by ballistic missile, and verify any casualties. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA, OSINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Assess RUF's current inventory and production rate of both cruise and ballistic missile types (Iskander, Kh-59/69, Lancet, and DPRK ballistic missiles), and their long-range bomber capabilities (Tu-160M). Verify the claim of serial production of the "Oreshnik" missile system. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, IMINT).
• MEDIUM: Evaluate the effectiveness of UAF AD against the multi-munition attack (cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, UAVs). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, OSINT).
• MEDIUM: Verify the nature and intent of RUF KAB launches on Kharkiv, Donetsk, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk/Mykolaiv/Odesa. Are these routine, or shaping operations for new ground thrusts? (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT).
• CRITICAL: Verify RUF ground force disposition and immediate intent on the Sumy axis. Determine if the 52,000-strong force is postured for an immediate, large-scale offensive, or will continue shaping operations. This is the #1 intelligence priority.
• CRITICAL: Assess the real-world impact of Russia's extreme IO fabrications, specifically the "US-Iran War" narrative, and the new claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran," and the use of manipulated media (e.g., NYT), and the use of AI/deepfake technology (Alex Parker Returns' "neural networks" photo). Monitor international diplomatic and media channels for any traction or confusion caused by this narrative that could impact policy or support for Ukraine. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT on diplomatic channels)
• MEDIUM: Verify RUF claims of UAF armored vehicle destruction near Novosergievka, RUF claims of UAF retreat near LPR, and RUF claims of drone strikes on UAF logistics near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), and the new RUF MoD claim of T-80BVM tank destroying UAF stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Also verify RUF milblogger claim of "partisans" using a "mined scooter" to liquidate UAF personnel in Kharkiv, assessing if this is a false-flag or targeted assassination, and confirm the UAF SBU prevention of assassination in Kharkiv and the uncovering of the FSB network preparing an assassination attempt on Dmytro Gordon. Verify RUF claims of mortar fire and drone strikes on UAF positions in Krasnoarmeysk area and Shevchenko. Verify RUF claims of liberation of settlement in Zaporizhzhia and the claimed capture of a UAF Humvee in Shevchenko. Verify RUF claims of artillery striking UAF mortar positions in Donetsk. Verify RUF source "Slivochny Kapriz" claims of activity in Velyka Novosilka - Shevchenko. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT).
• MEDIUM: Conduct BDA on the Lancet strike in Chernihiv Oblast to confirm munition type and intent. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA, OSINT).
• LOW: Verify Pushilin's claim of RUF liberating all settlements in DNR where UAF counter-attacked in 2023, and his new claim of UAF redeploying reserves west of Krasnoarmeysk. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, IMINT).
• LOW: Verify TASS claim of FAB destroying UAF command post on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA, IMINT).
• LOW: Verify TASS claim of foreign mercenaries and women redeployed to Yanvarskoye. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, IMINT).
• LOW: Verify Poddubny claim of Georgian mercenary leader "Vano Nadiradze" leaving UAF SSO ranks. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
• LOW: Assess the extent and impact of internal Russian dissent against the war (e.g., St. Petersburg "SVO temple" banner).
• LOW: Verify RUF MoD claim of striking a UAF Navy arsenal. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA, IMINT).
• LOW: Verify RUF claims of military operations in Borova - Petrovske (Grekovka) area. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT).
• LOW: Assess the veracity and implications of the FSB detention of Zaporizhzhia residents for spying. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
• LOW: Assess the significance of the new Kadyrov_95 video of the special forces training ground opening in Chechnya on RUF force generation and training, specifically for special operations. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
• LOW: Verify RUF claims of Iskander strike on Sumy training center, including casualty figures, and confirm the specific military significance of the target. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA, HUMINT).
• LOW: Verify the nature of the "drone-bomber" capability suggested by RUF milblogger imagery. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT).
• LOW: Assess any impacts or changes related to the 2nd anniversary of the Wagner mutiny. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
• LOW: Verify RUF claims of attacks on US military bases in Syria, and assess if these are part of a broader RUF effort to escalate the fabricated global conflict. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
• LOW: Verify ASTRA claim of UAF striking military unit in Belgorod Oblast, causing two fatalities. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT).
• LOW: Verify the incident in Kursk Oblast where a Military Police chief was killed attempting to detain looters, and its broader implications for RUF internal discipline and control, as well as the reported arrest of the killers and the sentencing of a Ukrainian militant for crimes in Kursk Oblast. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
• LOW: Assess the impact of Hungary and Slovakia blocking the 18th EU sanctions package against Russia on EU unity and future sanctions. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
• LOW: Verify Russian claims of Evin prison strike in Tehran. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
• LOW: Verify the significance and context of the captured H&K M320A1 grenade launcher, as displayed by "Dva Mayora." (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, IMINT).
• LOW: Assess the significance of the withdrawn appeal for arrested entrepreneur Samvel Karapetyan, and its implications for RUF internal legal proceedings and elite cohesion. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
• LOW: Verify the effectiveness of "Воин DV" claim of aerial ramming by RUF UAV operator. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT).
• LOW: Assess the significance of Putin's statements on strengthening the military and the "Oreshnik" missile system. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, IMINT).
• LOW: Assess the implications of RUF's stated intent to receive over 13,000 new officers. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).

---

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Air/Missile Capabilities: RUF has continued capability to execute complex, multi-domain, multi-munition air assaults against Kyiv, causing significant damage and increased casualties (8 confirmed fatalities, 33 wounded). Claims of Iskander use (now with confirmed hits on KPI by UAF sources and MIA Klymenko confirming ballistic strike on a residential building) and potential DPRK ballistic missile use suggest renewed willingness to expend high-value ballistic missiles in urban saturation attacks, alongside cruise missiles and UAVs, to overwhelm AD. RUF also maintains capability for widespread KAB launches on frontline oblasts and confirmed aerial weapon threat to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and use of Kh-59/69 in Mykolaiv, and confirmed ballistic missile threat from Crimea to Odesa Oblast. RUF demonstrated capability to plan and execute both mass combined-arms strikes (Kremenchuk) and precision strikes against high-value military targets (UAF training ground, claimed UAF Navy arsenal in Kyiv Oblast, and confirmed Sumy training center). New confirmed strikes on civilian infrastructure in Bila Tserkva (hospital, Greblya Club, hotel, medical clinic, residential) and Chernihiv (Lancet strike on village outskirts) indicate continued, deliberate targeting of non-military sites. RUF is equipping Tu-95MS strategic bombers with missiles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF is starting serial production of the "Oreshnik" missile system. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Ground Capabilities: The confirmed presence of a 52,000-strong RUF force on the Sumy axis signifies a critical capability for a major multi-axis ground offensive. RUF continues to conduct intense, attritional assaults on Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk/Mirnohrad, Siversk), with confirmed tactical gains at Perebudova (Donetsk) and Petrovske (Kharkiv), supported by heavy aviation (KABs, Ka-52M) and thermobaric (TOS-1A) systems. RUF propaganda continues to show confidence in destroying UAF armored vehicles, indicative of continued offensive operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF possesses effective drone capabilities for targeting UAF logistics and personnel, and is adapting for drone logistics (FPV drones for supply). RUF's 'Bars-Sarmat' Center for Special Purpose demonstrates indigenous UAV manufacturing. RUF is capable of sustained mortar fire and drone strikes on UAF positions, and claimed destruction of a UAF Humvee. RUF is adapting vehicles with anti-drone defenses. RUF is claiming further territorial gains in Zaporizhzhia, and pressing on multiple axes. RUF video shows damaged/destroyed UAF vehicles and personnel in Kupyansk direction. RUF video shows artillery strike on suspected UAF mortar position. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF is showcasing capabilities of captured weapons, like the H&K M320A1 grenade launcher. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Logistical Capabilities: Sustained volume of cruise missile, UAV, ballistic missile, and KAB launches indicates robust and continued access to diverse long-range precision munitions. Potential use of DPRK ballistic missiles would further diversify. Ability to concentrate 52,000 troops on Sumy axis suggests robust logistical support. New RUF videos confirm ongoing, active logistical operations (fuel, water, heavy equipment transport). Colonelcassad video on RUF military drivers indicates ongoing efforts. RUF MoD video confirms adaptation of FPV drones for combat service support logistics. RUF milbloggers soliciting specific equipment indicates continued reliance on public funding for specialized items, but sustained operational focus. RUF fundraising for "Summer Campaign 2025" indicates continued need for external support. RUF Minpromtorg will prepare a proposal to extend parallel imports, indicating continued need for Western goods despite sanctions. TASS reports Minpromtorg may include Russian paint for car bodies in localization requirements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Information Warfare Capabilities: RUF's IO remains highly agile, immediately exploiting kinetic events to propagate false claims and psychological pressure. Mockery and dehumanizing language immediately after strikes is a key tactic. RUF is actively fabricating atrocity claims against UAF (new "mined scooter" false-flag, internal RUF atrocities attributed to UAF, UAF spy arrests, terrorism cases against UAF in Kursk). Claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran" and use of manipulated media (NYT article on B-2 operations, fabricated IDF statements, Marco Rubio quotes, anti-war protests in NYC, Ashdod strike, Fordo strike, Israel power outages, IRGC statements claiming attacks on all Israeli territory, and new TASS claims of US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities citing Grossi) represents a new, dangerous escalation in their IO sophistication, directly tying Ukraine to the fabricated global conflict. Creation of new, fabricated kinetic events within the "global war" narrative indicates further escalation in IO and willingness to create fictitious battlefield scenarios. Marochko's claim of UAF losses (4,100 killed/wounded) and claimed 100 UAF casualties in Sumy indicates attempts to demoralize UAF and inflate RUF effectiveness. Detailed "chronicles" and "summaries" from milbloggers aim to control narrative. Coordinated invocation of 22 JUN 1941 historical narrative is sophisticated, high-level IO. RUF leverages domestic surveillance systems ("God's Eye") and mobilizing bots for internal control and information dissemination. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF uses mixed messaging to distract and normalize. New claims of Putin meeting Iranian FM and Russia having contacts with US on Iran, and Peskov open channels with Trump, designed to elevate Russia's role. RUF IO focusing on internal morale and political work. RUF actively attempting to create narrative of internal Ukrainian opposition supporting Russia. RUF attempting to sow discord between US and EU. RUF using high-level official statements from Peskov and Putin to directly frame the fabricated Iran conflict, including calling US aggression "unprovoked" and "unjustified," and claiming Russia is helping Iran. RUF promoting global influence by hosting foreign dignitaries (Mali interim President). RUF amplifying Lithuanian MFA statement to push narrative of Western hypocrisy. RUF fabricating attacks on US military bases in Syria. RUF media claims schools in occupied territories will no longer teach "Native (Ukrainian) language" and Ukrainian literature, demonstrating cultural erasure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF is also directly accusing Serbia of providing military aid to Ukraine via third parties, aiming to disrupt international relations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Medvedev's statements on Congress investigations against Kyiv are direct IO attacks on UAF leadership and Western aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF milbloggers promoting "combat brotherhood" via unit patches. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF IO uses fabricated news about Israel to distract and sow discord. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Alex Parker Returns actively uses imagery implying AI/deepfake generation for disinformation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Putin's meeting with military academy graduates is used as an IO platform to reinforce domestic support and project strength. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Putin claims West invented "Russian threat." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Arkhangel Spetsnaza reports Putin tasked psychological rehabilitation for soldiers, likely to manage internal dissent and morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Intentions: RUF intends to:
  • Execute a Major Ground Offensive: 52,000-troop concentration and 22 JUN 1941 historical pretext indicate high intent for major multi-axis ground offensive, likely Sumy and/or Kharkiv, to open new front and stretch UAF reserves. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Degrade UAF AD and Critical Infrastructure & Force Generation: Continue saturation attacks on Kyiv and other cities, attempting to deplete AD interceptors and strike critical civilian (residential, transport, business centers) and military-linked infrastructure (training grounds, KPI pool, hospitals, claimed UAF Navy arsenal, and confirmed Sumy training center, now including training institutions in Odesa Oblast). Confirmed strikes on civilian sites underscore this intent. MIA Klymenko report confirms direct targeting of civilian infrastructure. RUF will continue to use strategic bombers (Tu-95MS) for these strikes. RUF will use "Oreshnik" missiles for strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Maximize Psychological Impact and Terror: Direct targeting of residential areas and use of mocking language are clear attempts to terrorize civilian population and undermine morale. Increased casualties confirm this intent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Exaggerate Military Success: RUF aims to inflate perceived military successes through immediate, unverified claims of strikes on high-value targets, UAF equipment destruction, and high UAF casualties. RUF MoD claims of hitting military targets despite civilian impacts demonstrate this intent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Generate False Pretexts/Justifications: By fabricating atrocity claims against UAF and claims of "Ukrainian saboteurs" in Iran, RUF seeks to justify its own actions and potential future escalations. 22 JUN 1941 narrative serves as broad historical pretext. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Maintain Global Diversion (ESCALATED): Continue to intersperse unrelated domestic news and maintain broader "Iran-Israel/US War" narrative, now with active creation of new fabricated kinetic events and attributed statements. Directly implicating Ukraine (e.g., "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran") further diversifies international attention. New claims of Putin meeting Iranian FM and Russia contacting US on Iran, and Peskov's statements on Trump, elevate Russia's role. RUF intends to escalate nuclear rhetoric via Iran's IAEA cooperation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Consolidate Control in Occupied Territories: Staging celebratory events and making unverified claims of "liberating" areas projects normalcy. Removal of Ukrainian language from school curricula is long-term effort to erase Ukrainian identity. RUF will suppress narratives of Ukrainian recapture. RUF will highlight domestic issues in occupied territories to normalize control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Destabilize Moldova: Continued rhetoric on Moldova's leadership and Transnistria suggests RUF intends to maintain pressure for destabilization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Incentivize Foreign Recruitment: RUF will use citizenship offers and benefits to encourage foreign nationals to join. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Reinforce Domestic Control and Unity: RUF IO will continue to promote internal arrests and other domestic issues as distractions, while reinforcing state control through surveillance and foreign recruit benefits. RUF will attempt to manage internal discontent (e.g. Timur Ivanov case). RUF will project military strength and training capabilities. RUF will absorb new officer graduates into its ranks to sustain combat power. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Promote Global Alliances: RUF will continue to host foreign dignitaries from non-Western nations to project growing global influence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Disrupt Ukrainian International Aid: By accusing countries like Serbia of providing military aid to Ukraine, RUF aims to create diplomatic friction and potentially disrupt supply chains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Address Veteran Psychological Issues: Putin's tasking for psychological rehabilitation of veterans indicates an intent to address growing mental health challenges among returning soldiers, potentially to reduce social instability and improve military cohesion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• RUF: Sequential use of different missile types in Kyiv attacks continues. Explicit claims of targeting educational/industrial sites (KPI, Sumy training center, Odesa/Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi training institutions), partially corroborated by UAF, indicates continued intelligence-led targeting, whether accurate or propaganda. New UAF reports indicate potential use of DPRK ballistic missiles. Immediate use of mocking IO ("Kyiv is getting better") linked to confirmed strikes indicates intensified psychological warfare. Fabrication of UAF atrocities ("mined scooter," terrorism cases in Kursk) is further IO escalation. Active fabrication of kinetic events within "Iran-Israel/US War" narrative, use of manipulated media, and direct implication of Ukraine ("Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran") represents dangerous escalation in IO. Successful precision strike on UAF training ground indicates new, dangerous focus on degrading UAF force generation. Consistent invocation of 22 JUN 1941 narrative and monument openings is critical, coordinated IO shift. Confirmed Lancet strike in Chernihiv indicates continued use of smaller, precision UAVs against civilian targets. Promotion of internal surveillance systems ("God's Eye") and mobilizing bots indicates focus on information control/recruitment. New claims of Putin meeting Iranian FM and Russia contacting US on Iran, and Peskov's statements on Trump, demonstrate RUF's shift to actively projecting diplomatic role. RUF adapting logistics using FPV drones. RUF increasingly utilizing indigenous manufactured drones. RUF adapting ground vehicles with anti-drone defenses. RUF's shift to discuss "military-political work" internally suggests new focus on ideological control/morale. RUF continues to press on multiple axes. RUF's official MoD statements immediately after Kyiv strikes, claiming military targets, reflect rapid narrative shaping. RUF continues to showcase military training infrastructure with new facilities. Claimed "drone-bomber" capability, if confirmed, would be new tactical adaptation. Direct targeting of UAF mortar positions with artillery highlights continued counter-battery efforts. RUF claims of successful "Geran-2" drone strikes. RUF is equipping Tu-95MS strategic bombers with missiles. RUF will extend parallel imports, indicating adaptation to sanctions. RUF is actively using allegations against third countries (e.g. Serbia) to disrupt international support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF is using domestic legal cases (Timur Ivanov) as internal control mechanisms. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF milbloggers are promoting military symbols. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF is openly discussing the serial production of a new missile system ("Oreshnik"). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF is integrating new officer graduates (over 13,000) into its ranks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF is using aerial ramming as a tactic against UAF drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Putin's direct address to military graduates and statements on military development reflect adaptive leadership messaging. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF: AD and civil defense systems react rapidly to evolving threats, providing timely warnings and managing strike aftermath. Establishment of Grouping of Forces of Unmanned Systems and acquisition of new counter-drone EW aircraft demonstrate adaptation. UAF counter-offensives (Andriyivka, Sumy) and defensive preparations (Sumy obstacles, anti-drone tunnels in Zaporizhzhia) show tactical initiative. GUR and MFA demonstrate capability to conduct international evacuations. UAF DSHV demonstrates continued focus on reconnaissance and drone operations. UAF 47th Mech Brig highlights robust medical support. SBU Special Operations presence indicates continued elite unit activity, with new SBU claims of tank destruction, and successful disruption of FSB assassination plot in Kyiv and Kharkiv. 82nd Airmobile Brigade's active drone hunting indicates effective tactical drone operations. UAF leadership (President Zelenskyy) immediately reacting to kinetic events with strong public condemnation. UAF publicly reporting on RUF losses. UAF General Staff training photos indicate continued training. Ukrainian Patrol Police actively engaged in response. NGU units actively seeking public support for equipment replacement. UAF executed successful deep strike on Russian storage facility in Rostov Oblast. UAF 1st Tank Brigade demonstrates continued effective tank operations and FPV drone evasion. UAF General Staff provides detailed updates on clashes across multiple directions. Quote from Commander "Ramzes" indicates strong C2 over tactical adaptation and doctrine. STERNENKO video shows UAF destroying Russian radar system. Ukroboronprom starting cooperation with Airbus. Zelenskyy's visit to the UK demonstrates ongoing diplomatic efforts. KCMA creating AD groups based on volunteer formations. Norway will also develop and manufacture uncrewed vessels in Ukraine, indicating further adaptation for asymmetric warfare. UAF media actively promoting fundraising for combat units (e.g., DeepState's PS5 lottery). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• RUF: Sustained volume of missile/UAV/KAB launches indicates robust and continued access to diverse long-range precision munitions. Potential use of DPRK ballistic missiles would further diversify. Ability to concentrate 52,000 troops suggests robust logistical support for ground operations. New RUF videos confirm ongoing, active logistical operations. Colonelcassad video on RUF military drivers indicates ongoing efforts. RUF MoD video indicates adaptation of FPV drones for combat service support logistics. RUF milbloggers soliciting specific equipment indicates continued reliance on public funding for certain specialized items. RUF fundraising for "Summer Campaign 2025" indicates continued need for external support. RUF Minpromtorg will prepare a proposal to extend parallel imports until 2026. TASS reports Minpromtorg may include Russian paint for car bodies in localization requirements, suggesting domestic industrial push. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF: Zaporizhzhia OVA reports partial power restoration after recent strikes. Norway's financial aid for drones and plan to develop/manufacture uncrewed vessels in Ukraine further bolster UAF sustainment. STERNENKO's report of successful FPV drone procurement through public fundraising demonstrates robust civilian-military logistics. NGU brigade fundraising indicates operational needs for replacement equipment. UAF deep strike on Rostov Oblast storage facility indicates continued efforts to degrade RUF logistics. New Zealand aid package provides additional financial support. Construction of anti-drone tunnels in Zaporizhzhia demonstrates proactive logistical protection measures. DeepState fundraising efforts continue to tap into public support for equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• RUF: Highly effective C2 evident in coordinated multi-domain air assault and immediate, synchronized IO. Coordinated invocation of 22 JUN 1941 narrative, and rapid development of "Ukrainian saboteur" claims and manipulated media demonstrates high-level C2 over IO. New IO elements (Putin meeting Iranian FM, Russia contacting US on Iran, Peskov's statements on Trump) further demonstrate highly centralized IO C2. Arrest of Belgorod Deputy Governor might indicate internal control issues. RUF's internal discussions on "military-political work" suggest centralized effort to maintain morale/ideological cohesion. FSB claims of detaining UAF spies in Zaporizhzhia indicate continued counter-intelligence and C2 over internal security. New RUF MoD statement immediately after Kyiv strikes reflects centralized C2 and rapid narrative control. Peskov's public statements indicate centralized high-level C2 over military-political messaging. Putin's meeting with Iranian FM, and discussions with Iraqi PM, underscore centralized C2 over diplomatic/geopolitical maneuvers. Case against Timur Ivanov (former Deputy Defense Minister) indicates centralized C2 over internal corruption/discipline. Putin's address to military academy graduates reinforces centralized C2 over military leadership. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF: Effective tactical C2 for AD alerts, public safety, and emergency response continues. GUR and MFA C2 demonstrates effective international coordination. UAF DSHV and 47th Mech Brig videos illustrate effective unit-level C2. SBU Special Operations and 82nd Airmobile Brigade activities indicate effective C2 at special forces/tactical unit levels, including counter-assassination efforts. President Zelenskyy's immediate public reaction demonstrates effective high-level C2 and public information dissemination. KCMA's rapid response and public updates indicate effective civilian C2 in Kyiv. KCMA is creating AD groups on the basis of volunteer territorial community formations, demonstrating adaptive C2. UAF General Staff training photos reinforce C2 over training programs. Coordinated efforts for POW support and disabled veteran benefits indicate effective administrative C2. UAF General Staff's detailed reporting on multiple axes demonstrates effective overall C2 and situational awareness. Quote from Commander "Ramzes" indicates strong C2 over tactical adaptation/doctrine. MIA Klymenko's public statements on casualties and forensic processes indicate effective C2 over domestic law enforcement/post-strike response. Ukroboronprom's cooperation with Airbus indicates strategic C2 over defense industry development. Zelenskyy's visit to the UK reflects C2 over international diplomatic engagement. Coordination Staff for POWs held a meeting with families of 42nd Separate Mechanized Brigade, demonstrating continued C2 for personnel affairs. SBU Head General Maliuk's public statements on SSU tank destruction claims indicate effective C2 for public messaging on special operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.5. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• HIGH: Assess RUF's inventory and production rates for Iskander ballistic missiles, Kh-59/69 missiles, Lancet UAVs, any recently acquired DPRK ballistic missiles, Tu-95MS strategic bomber missile capacity, and the newly announced "Oreshnik" missile system. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, IMINT).
• MEDIUM: Identify RUF targeting patterns related to educational/civilian infrastructure in Kyiv, especially in light of the KPI claim, and the deliberate targeting of residential areas, now confirmed with increased fatalities and impacts in Bila Tserkva and Chernihiv, and confirmed ballistic strike on residential building, and the new strikes on training institutions in Odesa Oblast. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA, OSINT).
• CRITICAL: Verify RUF claims of breakthroughs toward Siversk and Mirnohrad. Determine the true extent of any RUF gains and the stability of UAF defensive lines. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
• LOW: Assess the impact of the Belgorod Deputy Governor's arrest on RUF internal control and local administration. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
• LOW: Evaluate the effectiveness and content of RUF's internal "military-political work" efforts, including psychological rehabilitation for returning soldiers. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
• LOW: Assess the significance of the FSB detention of Zaporizhzhia residents for spying, particularly if it indicates a new RUF counter-intelligence initiative, and the uncovering of the FSB network in Kyiv. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
• LOW: Assess the true effectiveness of RUF's new special forces water training ground in Chechnya on force generation. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, IMINT).
• LOW: Assess the operational impact of RUF's claimed "drone-bomber" capabilities. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT).
• LOW: Verify RUF claims of attacks on US military bases in Syria, and assess if these are part of a broader RUF effort to escalate the fabricated global conflict. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
• LOW: Assess the implications of the Timur Ivanov embezzlement case for RUF internal stability and corruption. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
• LOW: Assess the implications of RUF's statement on receiving over 13,000 new officers from military academies. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Defensive Posture: UAF AD remains actively engaged, demonstrating high readiness against persistent air attacks, successfully intercepting 354/368 aerial targets. Civilian authorities (KCMA, Emergency Services, Office of Prosecutor) are effectively managing consequences and providing public safety updates. UAF actively reinforcing defensive positions in Sumy Oblast with anti-tank obstacles. UAF General Staff reports on repelled assaults confirm robust defensive posture. KCMA is creating AD groups based on volunteer territorial community formations, enhancing local defense. Anti-drone tunnel construction in Zaporizhzhia indicates proactive defense measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Civilian Alertness: Civilian populations are following safety instructions and receiving timely information. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Naval Operations: UAF Naval Forces providing situation update on maritime conditions, indicating continued situational awareness and operational readiness. Norway's commitment to develop and manufacture uncrewed vessels in Ukraine further boosts naval capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Force Generation & Adaptation: Newly established Grouping of Forces of Unmanned Systems is operational. UAF acquiring new counter-drone EW aircraft and developing new tactics. UAF DSHV video shows continued training/operational readiness of reconnaissance units. Norway's $400M for drones and NASAMS producer opening office enhances capabilities. SBU Special Operations Center "A" continues to demonstrate high readiness, with SBU Head Maliuk claiming significant tank destruction, and successful counter-assassination operations in Kyiv and Kharkiv. UAF General Staff photos confirm 23rd Separate Mechanized Brigade conducting psychological obstacle course training. Volunteer fundraising for FPV drones is highly effective. NGU units engaging in fundraising for equipment replacement. 1st Tank Brigade's successful engagement and FPV drone evasion highlights effective tactical training and adaptation. STERNENKO video shows successful UAF destruction of Russian radar system. Ukroboronprom starting cooperation with Airbus. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kryvyi Rih: Military administration reports situation controlled. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• International Engagement: GUR and MFA successfully evacuated Ukrainian citizens from Israel. Coordination Staff for POWs continues to meet with families, providing psychological support. New Zealand's aid package reinforces international support. President Zelenskyy arrived in the UK for deeper defense cooperation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Medical Support: 47th Mechanized Brigade highlights operational stabilization point. National Police efforts to identify deceased personnel from RUF transfers highlight ongoing medical and forensic challenges. MIA Klymenko report on identifying 6,000 bodies, and statement that bodies are arriving in increasingly worse condition. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Morale: Zaporizhzhia OVA and Оперативний ЗСУ share messages on national moments of silence. Kharkiv citizens holding rallies for POWs. Some public sentiment expresses frustration with perceived ineffectiveness of sanctions and lack of weapons. Quote from Commander "Ramzes" indicates focus on mental fortitude. DeepState's PS5 lottery for donations demonstrates creative morale boosting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Leadership Response: President Zelenskyy's immediate public reaction and condemnation to kinetic strikes demonstrates strong leadership. MIA Klymenko's immediate public statements on Kyiv casualties and forensic efforts demonstrate proactive leadership response. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Government Functionality: Ukrainian government appointed an interim head of the Tax Service, indicating continued functionality. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes:
  • Effective Public Warning System: UAF Air Force and KCMA provide rapid and accurate threat warnings. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Rapid Emergency Response: Ukrainian emergency services respond swiftly to fires and provide medical aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Naval Situation Monitoring: UAF Naval Forces maintain vigilant watch. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Localized Counter-Offensive: UAF liberated Andriyivka (Sumy Oblast). UAF General Staff reports 20 RUF assaults repelled in Kursk and North Slobozhansky direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Deep Strikes & Asymmetric Warfare: UAF GUR executed deep strike on RUF fuel train in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF drones successfully striking RUF assets deep inside Russian territory (Smolensk, Bryansk). UAF MiG-29 successfully deployed AASM HAMMER in Kozynka. 82nd Airmobile Brigade drone hunting RUF personnel. UAF conducted successful deep strike on Russian storage facility in Rostov Oblast. STERNENKO video shows UAF destroying Russian radar system. SBU Cyber Department reports striking a Russian radar station and other military assets in Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) SBU Head Maliuk claims SSU accounts for every sixth tank hit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) DeepState posts video highlighting SBU 'A' Center's operations, including drone strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • AD Interceptions: UAF AD successfully intercepted 28/47 UAVs and 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles. UAF Air Force reports neutralizing 354/368 aerial targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RUF Personnel Losses: Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlits" reports at least 6483 RUF officers "demobilized" since Feb 2022. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlits" posts video of a massive explosion, labelled as "successfully demobilized." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • International Citizen Protection: GUR and MFA successfully evacuated 133 Ukrainian citizens from Israel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Reconnaissance Effectiveness: DSHV video illustrates sophisticated reconnaissance capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Combat Medical Support: 47th Mechanized Brigade highlights operational stabilization point. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • SBU Special Operations: Demonstrated continued high-level special forces activity. SBU and National Police arrested RUF agents who attempted to blow up a UAF soldier in Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) SBU uncovered FSB network preparing assassination attempt on Dmytro Gordon in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Public Leadership Response: President Zelenskyy's immediate public condemnation and focus on civilian casualties. MIA Klymenko's rapid public statements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Volunteer Procurement: Successful large-scale fundraising and procurement of FPV drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Tank Operations: 1st Tank Brigade demonstrates effective direct engagement with enemy and FPV drone evasion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Defense Industrial Cooperation: Ukroboronprom initiating cooperation with Airbus. Norway committed to developing and manufacturing uncrewed vessels in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • High-Level Diplomatic Engagement: President Zelenskyy's arrival in the UK for deeper defense cooperation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Local Defense Initiatives: KCMA creating AD groups based on volunteer territorial community formations. Anti-drone tunnel construction in Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Legal Action: UAF General Prosecutor's Office documenting damages and casualties for war crimes. Confirms completion of search and rescue operation in Kramatorsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Government Appointments: Ukrainian government appointed an interim head of the Tax Service. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Setbacks:
  • Significant Civilian Infrastructure Damage & Increased Casualties: Confirmed damage to multi-story residential building, non-residential building, business center, vehicles, bus stop in Kyiv. Confirmed eight (8) fatalities (7 in Kyiv, 1 in Bila Tserkva) and 33 wounded in Kyiv, including a married couple and children. Strikes on Ochakiv caused 3 wounded and extensive damage. Confirmed strikes in Bila Tserkva (Greblya Club, hotel, medical clinic, residential, hospital) and Chernihiv (Lancet strike on village outskirts causing 2 fatalities and 10 wounded, including children). MIA Klymenko reports direct ballistic missile strike on residential building. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New ballistic missile strikes on training institutions in Odesa Oblast and Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, with potential casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Strategic Infrastructure & Force Generation Impacts: Successful RUF missile strike on Kremenchuk energy infrastructure and UAF training ground resulted in significant damage/casualties. Confirmed missile fragment hit on KPI swimming pool. RUF claims Iskander strike on Sumy training center with up to 100 UAF casualties, if verified, would be significant setback. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Information Warfare Vulnerability (CRITICAL, WORSENING): Continued amplification by Ukrainian media of RUF's fabricated "Iran-Israel/US War" narrative, including new kinetic elements, and now the new claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran," even amidst direct kinetic attacks on Kyiv, remains severe self-inflicted wound. This undermines Ukraine's information security and ability to maintain international focus. Public sentiment expressing frustration with sanctions/lack of weapons indicates potential morale challenges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NGU Equipment Losses: Fundraising efforts by NGU "Rubizh" brigade indicate loss of property and equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RUF Ground Gains: RUF captured Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast) and Petrovske (Kharkiv Oblast), indicating minor tactical setbacks for UAF. RUF also claimed capture of settlement in Zaporizhzhia. UAF General Staff reports of continued clashes across multiple axes indicates sustained pressure. RUF video shows damaged/destroyed UAF vehicles in Kupyansk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • International Diplomatic Setbacks: Hungary and Slovakia blocked the 18th EU sanctions package against Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Air Defense: Continued urgent need for advanced AD systems, particularly those effective against ballistic missiles (Iskander, DPRK types, "Oreshnik") and capable of countering saturation attacks. Norway's NASAMS office opening is positive but more is needed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Counter-IO: Persistent amplification of RUF disinformation by Ukrainian media highlights critical, unaddressed strategic deficiency in counter-information capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Force Protection: Urgent need for enhanced force protection for UAF training grounds and assembly areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Energy Infrastructure: Continued need for protection and rapid repair capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Medical: Increased demand for emergency medical services and hospital capacity. Need for improved processes for identification of deceased personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Equipment Replacement: Continued need for replacement of lost equipment for frontline units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Financial Aid: New Zealand's aid package positive, but overall need remains high. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Defense Industrial Capacity: Ukroboronprom's cooperation with Airbus and Norway's commitment to uncrewed vessel manufacturing indicates recognition of need, but also highlights current constraints. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• NONE.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian (CRITICAL ESCALATION - Direct Kinetic Fabrication, Intensified Dehumanization, Continued Global Diversion, Atrocity Fabrications, New Kinetic Event Fabrications, Inflated UAF Losses, Moldova Destabilization, Historical Pretext for Invasion, Directly Implicating Ukraine in Fabricated Global Conflicts, Use of Manipulated Media/AI, Internal Control Emphasis, Projecting Diplomatic Authority in Fabricated Crisis, Incentivizing Foreign Recruitment, New False-Flag Assassination Claims, New Claims of Internal Ukrainian Opposition, New Threats against EU, Focus on Internal Military-Political Work, New FSB Spy Claims, New Claims of Specific Missile Types Used by Iran, New Claims of US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities citing Grossi, Showcasing Military Training Infrastructure, Promoting Global Alliances, Cultural Erasure in Occupied Territories, Economic Resilience Narratives, Accusations against Third-Party Arms Suppliers, Domestic Legal Cases as IO, Promotion of Military Symbols, Reinforcing Military Strength, Addressing Veteran Morale, Countering Western Narratives):
  • Immediate Kinetic Fabrication & Misattribution: RUF milbloggers claiming "Iskander" strikes on Kyiv and specific targets like KPI. Misattributing damage to residential buildings as UAF AD failures. Releasing "frontline summaries" with claims of UAF equipment destruction. Rybar photo features "Victory Narrative" banner. WarGonzo claims "Rostec began supplying the Ministry of Defense... with newest guided missiles." Video claims "Gerans" actively worked against targets across multiple Oblasts. "Chronicle of strikes on Ukraine 22-23 June 2025." Video mocks "bombing Donbas." 'Bars-Sarmat' Center for Special Purpose showcasing UAV manufacturing. RUF claims continued offensive operations, "breaking through enemy defenses." RUF claims "camouflage did not save UAF relay stations and dugouts." RUF claims "damage to UAF position in Shevchenko." RUF sources claim liberation of settlement in Zaporizhzhia. RUF MoD claims strike on military objects in Kyiv Oblast and UAF Navy arsenal. Rybar video shows "new strikes on Kyiv." TASS and Операция Z claim Iskander strike hit Sumy training center. RUF MoD confirmed Iskander strike on a training center for mobilized AFU servicemen near Sumy. Alex Parker Returns/TASS/WarGonzo fabricating Israel-Iran conflict with large explosion visuals attributed to IDF strikes on Tehran. RUF video shows damaged/destroyed UAF vehicles and personnel in Kupyansk direction. RUF video shows artillery strike on suspected UAF mortar position. Военкор Котенок reports attack on US military base in Syria. "Drone-bomber in action?" suggests RUF developing drone bomber capabilities. Alex Parker Returns claims Israeli MFA stated Israel intentionally blew up gates of Tehran prison. Operatsiya Z claims "Geran-2" drones inflicted powerful strikes on militants' positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF source "NgP raZVedka" discusses "night decommunization" (RUF term for strikes). RUF milblogger "Starshe Edda" posts multiple videos of smoke plumes in Kyiv, claiming new strikes. RUF source "Slivochny Kapriz" reports activity in Velyka Novosilka - Shevchenko. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF reports the serial production of the "Oreshnik" missile system has begun. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF reports it will receive over 13,000 new officers from military academies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) "Воин DV" posts video of a "Sedoy" UAV operator from the 69th brigade attacking UAF heavy drones with an aerial ramming tactic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Intensified Dehumanization & Mockery: RUF channels using inflammatory language ("Kyiv is getting better," "wails of Khokhols"). "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posting "fluffy cuteness." Alex Parker Returns mocks Ukrainian musician and poet. Photos mocking deceased individuals. Alex Parker Returns photo mocks Israel's claim of destroying "countdown clock." "Dnevnik Desantnika" posted a photo mocking "Khokhlyatsky business." Colonelcassad mocked a person whose apartment was hit in Kyiv, stating he "still does not grasp the connection between the Nazi regime in Kyiv and what is happening in Ukraine." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - last is LOW CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns posts photo of a scientific research facility, implying significant damage, used in anti-Israel context. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Fabrication of Atrocities: TASS disseminating fabricated atrocity claims against UAF ("finished off wounded soldiers"). Svatove bus stop claim likely false-flag. RUF milblogger video claims "partisans" liquidated UAF militants in Kharkiv using "mined scooter." BУТУСОВ ПЛЮС claims wounded Russian soldier "shot by his comrades." TASS video claims FSB detained Zaporizhzhia residents for spying for SBU (likely forced confession). TASS video claims Investigative Committee opened terrorism cases after UAF missile strikes on Kursk Oblast. FSB prevented a terrorist attack in Tatarstan and arrested a sponsor of an extremist organization in St. Petersburg. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - BУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is LOW). WarGonzo reports a Ukrainian militant sentenced to 17 years for crimes in Kursk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Continued Global Diversion (CRITICAL, ESCALATED, NEW CLAIMS, Projecting Diplomatic Role, Using AI/Deepfakes): "Iran-Israel/US War" fabrication continues, with RUF state media and milbloggers actively creating new fabricated kinetic events and using manipulated media. WarGonzo claims "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran." TASS reports Iran will continue uranium enrichment. TASS claims Putin to meet with Iranian FM. TASS claims "Russia conducting contacts with Americans, including on situation around Iran." Basurin claims "Marco Rubio believes world safer after US strikes on Iran." TASS claims Israel strikes six airfields in Iran. Alex Parker Returns amplifies fabricated NYT report: "Iran evacuated equipment and uranium from Fordo." Colonelcassad reports Iran will continue uranium enrichment. Операция Z amplifies fabricated IDF statement: "Israeli aviation again strikes military infrastructure in Iran." Два майора video purports to show "Anti-war protests began in New York." TASS cites NYT: "US does not know where Iran moved its uranium reserves." Alex Parker Returns mocks "bloody Netanyahu." Басурин о главном warns of oil price spike. Alex Parker Returns photo "Iron Dome. Results." Alex Parker Returns video on "children of US citizens living and dying on front lines." Video claims "Protests against Trump's decision to strike Iranian nuclear facilities were held in the USA." Photo: "How Western countries support Moldovan puppet president Maia Sandu." Старше Эдды promotes "Russia invites partners to form a new platform for global growth." TASS claims "USA can deprive Europe of internet." TASS claims Ben Gurion airport resumes operations. TASS claims "Iran attacked all Israeli territory with missiles and kamikaze drones," citing IRGC. TASS claims Iranian ballistic missiles Kheibar Shekan, Emad, Qadr and Fattah-1 used. TASS claims buildings damaged after US strike on Iranian nuclear facility in Isfahan. TASS claims uranium enrichment facility damaged after US strike on Iranian nuclear facility in Natanz. TASS claims Israel again attacked Iranian nuclear facility in Fordo. Операция Z claims US strike on Iran prepared in advance. Colonelcassad videos show anti-war protests. Colonelcassad video shows symbolic flags of Israel and Iran. Alex Parker Returns video shows smoke over Tehran. Оперативний ЗСУ amplifies Reuters report that Iran sent MFA head to Russia. TASS claims US strike on Fordo did not cause significant damage. TASS from Peskov states Putin and Trump open to calls. TASS from Peskov contains "main statements." TASS claims Putin called US aggression "unprovoked" and "unjustified." TASS claims Putin stated Russia is helping Iranian people. TASS claims Iranian MFA Aragchi stated escalation. Colonelcassad photo shows Mali General Assimi Goita arriving in Moscow. Kotsnews photo shows map of potential Iranian strike targets. Басурин о главном references new program. TASS reports Putin discussed Middle East with Iraqi PM. Colonelcassad message reports Iranian MFA demands active role from Russia. Alex Parker Returns message amplifies Lithuanian MFA statement. TASS claims Israel attacked Evin prison in Tehran. Kotsnews asks if Iran attacked US base. TASS claims Naryshkin stated US did not warn RF about strike on Iran. Strelkov discusses US entry into Middle East war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - mostly RUF IO/Fabrication). TASS reports US via regional countries conveyed Israel's intention to end conflict to Iran. WarGonzo claims Israeli strikes on Tehran targeted IRGC HQ. Alex Parker Returns reports "Kaja Kallas will propose sanctions against Israel for human rights violations." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Alex Parker Returns posted multiple photos, captioning one "The beautiful era of neural networks and Wikipedias. What more proof do you need?" This implies the use of AI/deepfake technology to generate disinformation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad reports UAE condemnation of Israel's call for Arab funding for war with Iran. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Poddubny discusses Putin's harsh assessment of US actions against Iran. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Operatsiya Z reports Netanyahu claims Israel close to achieving war goals with Iran. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Irrelevant Domestic Content: Russian state-affiliated channels continue to release unrelated domestic news. Sever.Realiy reports residents of three villages in Karelia complaining about lack of bus service. TASS reports Minpromtorg will prepare a proposal to extend parallel imports. TASS reports arrested entrepreneur Samvel Karapetyan's defense withdrew appeal. TASS reports prosecutor requests 14.5 years for Timur Ivanov for embezzlement. TASS video shows casualties from Damascus church attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports Minpromtorg may include Russian paint for car bodies in localization requirements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) "Новости Москвы" video on Moscow subway temperature. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Normalizing Occupation: RUF channels attempting to normalize occupation. Claim "Ukronazi Biletsky" promised to retake Mariupol. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Dehumanizing Ukraine/UAF: TASS reports Apty Alaudinov on SBU wanted list. "Russia will remove Ukrainian language/literature from federal program." Video shows interview with two individuals discussing recruitment (RUF IO). TASS claims UAF redeployed foreign mercenaries and women to Yanvarskoye. Photo claims "leader of Georgian mercenaries...left ranks." Video claims "Russia is actively forming Ukrainian anti-fascist units." Photo of Russian military items found with bodies during repatriations. Operatsiya Z reports mobilized UOC priest detained. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" photo claims "traitor of Russia" included in exchange. RUF media claims schools in occupied territories will no longer teach "Native (Ukrainian) language" and Ukrainian literature. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Exaggerated UAF Losses: RUF channels disseminating vastly inflated claims of UAF casualties. TASS claims Iskander strike on Sumy training center resulted in up to 100 UAF casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Moldova Destabilization: TASS disseminating narratives from Igor Dodon. Photo: "How Western countries support Moldovan puppet president Maia Sandu." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Promoting Military Might and Cohesion: RUF channels pushing propaganda emphasizing military power. Colonelcassad videos featuring RUF logistics personnel. RUF MoD video showing FPV drones for logistics. Два майора soliciting donations for Pokrovsk. Russian passport issuance to "Tajikistan native." 'Bars-Sarmat' Center. Modified UAZ vehicle with metal spikes. Colonelcassad fundraising for "Summer Campaign 2025." Messages discuss "military-political work." Kadyrov_95 video shows opening of new water training ground for Russian Special Forces University. "Drone-bomber in action?" suggests RUF developing drone bomber capabilities. RUF is equipping Tu-95MS strategic bombers with missiles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF milblogger "Arkhangel Spetsnaza" promotes unit patches as symbols of "courage and combat brotherhood." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports Putin holds traditional meeting with military academy graduates, states Russia will continue to develop its armed forces, and that the serial production of "Oreshnik" missile system has begun. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports that over 13,000 officers will join the Russian Armed Forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Historical Pretext for Invasion: RUF state-media/milblogger channels invoking 22 June 1941 anniversary. Два майора photo shows monument opening at Brest Fortress. Video from Uzbekistan celebrates Soviet Naval Veterans. Fighterbomber message recalls 2nd anniversary of Wagner mutiny. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Kotsnews video on Olympic Games politicization, linking it to sanctions against Russian athletes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS posts videos of Putin stating Russia is fighting for its future. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • International Diplomatic Disinformation: TASS reports Japan's PM plans to withdraw from NATO summit. Воин DV claims Japan refused to increase defense spending. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports Medvedev predicted investigations against Kyiv authorities in Congress and a deplorable end for them due to US fund expenditures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports Putin states West invented "Russian threat." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Internal Criticism of Russian Healthcare: "Север.Реалии" reporting on deterioration of healthcare. MOBILIZATSIA | Novosti | Srochniki message on wounded soldier hunger strike. Sever.Realiy reports residents of three villages in Karelia complaining about lack of bus service. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Suppression of Dissent: ASTRA's report of criminal cases against teenage girls. Photo reports banner placed in St. Petersburg near "SVO temple." TASS video reports man arrested in St. Petersburg for financing "extremist organization." FSB prevented a terrorist attack in Tatarstan and arrested a sponsor of an extremist organization in St. Petersburg. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Internal Surveillance & Mobilization: Архангел Спецназа promotes "God's Eye" surveillance. Mobilizatsia | Novosti | Srochniki shares info on bot. Архангел Спецназа photo claims "One of the traitors who went over to the AFU was handed over...to Russia." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Accusations against Serbia: TASS reports SVR claims Serbia uses bypass routes to export military products to Ukraine. TASS claims Moscow regrets Serbia sacrifices friendship with Russia for profit and cowardly multi-vector policy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) "Voenkor Kotenok" amplifies SVR claims against Serbia. Alex Parker Returns amplifies SVR claims against Serbia. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts video with individuals holding a combined Russian/Serbian flag, soliciting donations, implying solidarity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Ukrainian:
  • CRITICAL VULNERABILITY: Amplification of RUF Disinformation (SELF-INFLICTED WOUND, WORSENING): Prominent Ukrainian media continues to widely amplify RUF's dangerous "Iran-Israel/US War" fabrications, including new kinetic elements, and now the claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran." This is severe and persistent failure in information security. Worsened by publication of generic "tactical analyses of image" content without critical source assessment. Messages reflecting frustration with international support. Оперативний ЗСУ amplifies Reuters report that Iran sent MFA head to Russia. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Israel attacked Iran's Fordo nuclear facility. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС highlights Russian propaganda linking Ukraine to Iran events. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Public Safety Messaging: UAF Air Force, KCMA, DSNS, Zaporizhzhia OVA provide essential public safety warnings and report on strike consequences. Videos show immediate aftermath and rescue operations. President Zelenskyy reacting to night attack. Reports 8 fatalities, 33 wounded. Damage to bus stop in Sviatoshynskyi. Missile fragments damaged KPI sports complex. Policeman in uniform. Ongoing search and rescue efforts. Air Force of Ukraine declares "Attention!" MIA Klymenko discusses Kyiv ballistic missile strike hitting residential building basement. KCMA is creating AD groups on the basis of volunteer territorial community formations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Operational Updates: UAF Naval Forces and General Staff providing timely updates. Office of General Prosecutor documenting war crimes. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 provides updated enemy loss figures. Tsaplienko reports fire in Rostov Oblast. Liveuamap Source provides detailed reports from General Staff. MIA Klymenko discusses identification of 6,000 bodies transferred by RUF, and that bodies are in increasingly worse condition. SBU Cyber Department reports striking a Russian radar station and other military assets in Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) SBU Head Maliuk discusses SSU accounting for tank hits. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) SBU reports uncovering FSB network preparing assassination attempt on Dmytro Gordon. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Offensive Messaging: DeepState and Operativny ZSU highlight successful UAF deep strikes and local counter-offensives. Оперативний ЗСУ video shows 82nd Airmobile Brigade drone hunting RUF personnel. Video featuring captured RUF volunteer highlights low RUF morale. DeepState video shows Ukrainian tank in direct engagement. STERNENKO video shows UAF destroying Russian radar system. Video from BUUTSOV PLUS claims UAF destroyed RUF mortar and equipment with personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlits" posts video of a massive explosion, labelled as "successfully demobilized." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Call for Aid: STERNENKO's message calling for aid. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 message highlights Norway's $400M drone aid and NASAMS office opening. STERNENKO reports successful acquisition of FPV drones. NGU "Rubizh" brigade fundraising. РБК-Україна reports New Zealand $9M+ aid package. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Norway will develop and manufacture uncrewed vessels in Ukraine. DeepState promoting PS5 lottery for donations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • International Citizen Protection: Coordination Staff for POWs reporting on GUR/MFA evacuation from Israel. Photos show support for POW families. A meeting was held with families of servicemen from the 42nd Separate Mechanized Brigade. Coordination Staff provides psychological advice for families of POWs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • National Unity/Remembrance: Zaporizhzhia OVA and Оперативний ЗСU share messages on moments of silence. Photos show rally in Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Military Professionalism: DSHV and 47th Mech Brig share videos highlighting training, operational effectiveness. SBU Special Operations. 23rd Separate Mechanized Brigade conducting psychological obstacle course. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides quote from commander "Ramzes." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Defensive Readiness: STERNENKO video showing anti-tank obstacles in Sumy Oblast. Zaporizhzhia OVA confirms anti-drone tunnel construction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Humanitarian Impact: РБК-Україна reporting on married couple among fatalities in Kyiv and children wounded in Chernihiv. National Police report "RF usually transfers bodies of dead in terrible condition." Civilian distress about inadequate medical care (LOW CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Diplomatic Activity: РБК-Україна photo claims President Zelenskyy announced visit to Britain (LOW CONFIDENCE). President Zelenskyy's statement accusing Russia of using DPRK ballistic missiles. President Zelenskyy arrived in the UK for deeper defense cooperation. Ukroboronprom cooperation with Airbus. Ukrainian media reports that Hungary and Slovakia blocked the 18th EU sanctions package against Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Government Operations: RBK-Ukraine reports the government appointed an interim head of the Tax Service. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Economic Impact: "RBK-Ukraine" shares an article about "army of debtors" and how Russia "buys" "volunteers" for the war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Regional Governance: Head of Kharkiv OVA congratulated state civil servants. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian: Civilian morale in Kyiv and surrounding oblasts (Bila Tserkva, Chernihiv, Odesa) under severe strain due to confirmed destructive multi-domain air attacks, leading to increased casualties (8 confirmed fatalities, 33 wounded, including children) and property destruction. Direct targeting of residential areas, hospitals, business centers increases fear. Continued amplification of RUF's fabricated "global war" and new direct implication of Ukraine by some Ukrainian media risks sowing confusion and undermining national resolve. Call for aid by STERNENKO reflects ongoing need. Confirmed hit on KPI will likely impact public sentiment. President Zelenskyy's immediate, strong public condemnation will help maintain morale. Kharkiv rally for POWs demonstrates continued public engagement. Frustration regarding perceived effectiveness of sanctions and pace of weapons deliveries indicates potential erosion of morale related to international support. Civilian distress about inadequate medical care for son (LOW CONFIDENCE). FSB detaining UAF spies in Zaporizhzhia could sow distrust. MIA Klymenko's report on challenges of identifying 6,000 bodies highlights human cost and could impact morale, especially with bodies arriving in worse condition. Reports that Hungary and Slovakia blocked sanctions package could negatively impact morale regarding international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) DeepState's PS5 lottery likely boosts civilian morale and engagement in supporting the military. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Russian: Domestic sentiment manipulated by pervasive "global war" narrative, reinforced by fabricated claims of successful strikes in Ukraine, attempts to project normalcy in occupied territories, new fabricated atrocity claims (mined scooter false-flag, terrorism cases in Kursk), and creation of entirely new fabricated kinetic events in "global conflict." Inflated UAF casualty claims from Marochko and claimed 100 casualties in Sumy designed to boost morale, as are internal military propaganda and "historical pretext." Domestic news aims to foster normalcy/distract. Arrest of Belgorod official could lead to discontent. Promotion of foreign recruitment aims to maintain force numbers. Wounded soldier's hunger strike indicates potential underlying issues. Internal dissent (St. Petersburg "SVO temple" banner) suggests cracks. Internal discussion about "military-political work" suggests RUF recognizes morale issues. New IO regarding mobilized UOC priest attempts to sow doubt about Ukrainian mobilization. Fatal car accident in Ilovaisk and public fundraising indicate persistent domestic issues in occupied territories and reliance on citizen support. Kadyrov_95 video of special forces training ground intended to boost morale. Reports of lack of bus service in Karelia could indicate domestic discontent. RUF propaganda attempts to justify "buying" "volunteers" suggests potential issues with recruitment. Medvedev's statements on Congress investigations against Kyiv are designed to sow internal discontent within Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The Timur Ivanov case and the withdrawn appeal for Samvel Karapetyan indicate a focus on internal political control among elites. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Putin's statements on developing the military and "Oreshnik" production are designed to boost domestic confidence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Psychological rehabilitation for veterans indicates a perceived need to maintain morale among military personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Global Diversion (CRITICAL, Escalated): RUF's "Iran-Israel/US War" fabrication continues to consume international attention, now actively including fabricated kinetic events and attributed diplomatic statements to make it appear more real, and most critically, directly implicating Ukraine with false claims of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran." This severely hinders Ukraine's diplomatic efforts. TASS reports Japan's PM pulling out of NATO summit. New TASS messages claiming Putin meeting Iranian FM and Russia contacting US on Iran, and Peskov's statements on Trump, designed to elevate Russia's perceived diplomatic role. TASS claims "Iranian parliament plans to pass a bill on suspending cooperation with IAEA." TASS claims "USA can deprive Europe of internet." Amplification of anti-war protests in Western cities aims to demonstrate internal Western opposition. TASS reports Putin discussed Middle East with Iraqi PM. Colonelcassad reports Iranian MFA demands active role from Russia. Alex Parker Returns amplifies Lithuanian MFA statement. Воин DV claims Japan refused to increase defense spending. Военкор Котенок reports attack on US military base in Syria. TASS claims Israel attacked Evin prison in Tehran. Kotsnews asks if Iran attacked US base. TASS claims Naryshkin stated US did not warn RF about strike on Iran. Strelkov discusses US entry into Middle East war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports US via regional countries conveyed Israel's intention to end conflict to Iran. WarGonzo claims Israeli strikes on Tehran targeted IRGC HQ. Alex Parker Returns reports "Kaja Kallas will propose sanctions against Israel for human rights violations." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Alex Parker Returns actively uses imagery implying AI/deepfake generation for disinformation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad reports UAE condemnation of Israel's call for Arab funding for war with Iran. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Poddubny discusses Putin's harsh assessment of US actions against Iran. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Operatsiya Z reports Netanyahu claims Israel close to achieving war goals with Iran. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Ukrainian Diplomacy: Ukraine's efforts to secure support undermined by RUF's global diversion, particularly when amplified by Ukrainian media. GUR/MFA evacuation from Israel demonstrates continued capacity. Zelenskyy's announcement of Norway's drone aid and NASAMS office opening is positive. Norway's commitment to develop and manufacture uncrewed vessels in Ukraine further strengthens ties. РБК-Україна photo claims President Zelenskyy announced visit to Britain (LOW CONFIDENCE). President Zelenskyy's statement accusing Russia of using DPRK ballistic missiles raises stakes. Public sentiment regarding ineffectiveness of sanctions suggests diplomatic constraint. New Zealand's aid package demonstrates continued financial support. Reuters report (amplified by UAF) of Iran sending MFA head to Russia highlights potential strengthening of Russia-Iran axis. President Zelenskyy's arrival in the UK for deeper defense cooperation is significant diplomatic development. Ukroboronprom's cooperation with Airbus highlights efforts to build international defense industrial ties. Ukrainian media reports that Hungary and Slovakia blocked the 18th EU sanctions package against Russia, indicating a setback in EU unity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RUF Diplomatic Efforts: RUF claims it will present report on "crimes of UAF against civilians in Kherson Oblast" to UN Security Council and OSCE. TASS message regarding Moldova indicates RUF's efforts to influence regional politics. RUF's new claims of high-level diplomatic engagement regarding fabricated Iran conflict (Putin meeting Iranian FM, contacts with US, Peskov on Trump calls) are significant, escalating development in IO. Старше Эдды promotes "Russia invites partners to form a new platform for global growth." Colonelcassad photo shows Mali General Assimi Goita arriving in Moscow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF is actively accusing Serbia of supplying military aid to Ukraine via third parties, explicitly stating it "regrets" Serbia's "cowardly multi-vector policy," demonstrating an attempt to disrupt Ukraine's supply lines and sow discord among international partners. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Putin's meeting with military academy graduates is a diplomatic platform for projecting strength. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Assessing the real-world impact of Russia's extreme IO fabrications, specifically the "US-Iran War" narrative, and the new claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran," and the use of manipulated media (e.g., NYT), and the use of AI/deepfake technology (Alex Parker Returns' "neural networks" photo). Monitor international diplomatic and media channels for any traction or confusion caused by this narrative that could impact policy or support for Ukraine. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT on diplomatic channels)
• MEDIUM: Assess the extent to which global and domestic anti-war protests (as amplified by RUF) impact actual Western government policy or public opinion regarding support for Ukraine. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Major Multi-Axis Ground Offensive (Sumy/Kharkiv/Donetsk) with Intensified, Coordinated Ballistic Missile (including DPRK and "Oreshnik"), Cruise Missile, and UAV (including Lancet) Strikes on Kyiv and Strategic Targets (including training institutions), and Hyper-Aggressive, Multi-Layered Global IO Diversion with Fabricated Kinetic Events/Diplomatic Resolutions, Atrocity Claims, and Direct Implication of Ukraine in Fabricated Global Conflicts, bolstered by Manipulated Media and Fabricated Diplomatic Engagements (ESCALATED): RUF will persist with high-intensity ground assaults on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk/Mirnohrad, Siversk), supported by KABs and drones. RUF will launch a major ground offensive on the Sumy axis, possibly coordinated with intensified pressure on the Kharkiv axis, leveraging the 52,000 troop concentration and the 22 JUN historical pretext. This will be supported by overwhelming air, KAB, and missile strikes to soften UAF defenses. RUF will intensify its coordinated multi-domain air attacks on Kyiv and other major urban centers (e.g., Bila Tserkva, Chernihiv, Odesa), combining ballistic missile launches (from Bryansk/Kursk, and potentially new vectors from Sumy direction, potentially including DPRK ballistic missiles and confirmed direct ballistic strikes on residential areas, and newly serially produced "Oreshnik" missiles) with mass Shahed drone waves and successive cruise missile attacks, aiming to saturate UAF AD and strike high-value military and critical infrastructure targets (including UAF training grounds, KPI pool, hospitals, claimed UAF Navy arsenal, and confirmed Sumy training center, and training institutions in Odesa Oblast), and continued strikes on civilian areas (residential, hotels, clinics, business centers) to maximize psychological impact. This will include rapid re-engagement and successive waves, likely within hours of each other. The direct targeting of residential areas, immediate mockery by RUF IO channels, and fabrication of UAF atrocities (including new "mined scooter" false-flag claims, claims of UAF spies, and claims of internal RUF atrocities, and claims of UAF terrorism in Kursk, and the uncovering of an FSB assassination plot) indicate that future attacks will increasingly target civilian population centers and infrastructure directly, rather than solely military targets, and be accompanied by further aggressive pretexts. This will be centrally supported by a further, unprecedented escalation of the fabricated "Iran-Israel/US War" narrative, including the use of state media to report new, fabricated kinetic events and attributed diplomatic statements (e.g., Fordo, Hormuz, food security impacts, Putin meeting Iranian FM, Russia in contact with US on Iran, fabricated Ashdod strike, fabricated Israeli attacks, fabricated IRGC statements claiming attacks on all Israeli territory, and new TASS claims of US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities citing Grossi), use of manipulated media (e.g., fabricated NYT articles, fabricated Ashdod strike, AI/deepfake imagery), and the direct, fabricated implication of Ukraine through claims of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran." Fabricated atrocity claims against UAF will increase, along with exaggerated UAF casualty figures. Domestic narrative control will remain a high priority, utilizing global crisis framing to rally support and justify actions in occupied territories and normalize occupation. RUF will continue to use IO to destabilize Moldova and other bordering nations and undermine international support for Ukraine (e.g., Japan/NATO, US-EU relations, blocking of EU sanctions, accusations against Serbia). RUF will leverage internal surveillance and mobilization efforts to reinforce domestic control, including incentivizing foreign recruitment, and using domestic legal cases (Timur Ivanov, Karapetyan) for internal control. RUF will also increase its focus on internal military-political work and promote narratives of internal Ukrainian opposition supporting Russia. RUF will continue to actively build and promote alliances with non-Western nations (e.g., Mali). RUF will continue to fabricate attacks on US military bases in Syria to expand the scope of the fabricated global conflict. RUF will continue cultural erasure in occupied territories (removing Ukrainian language from schools). RUF will continue to integrate new officer graduates into its ranks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Major Multi-Axis Offensive (Sumy/Kharkiv/Donetsk) Coordinated with a Direct Mass Ballistic Missile (including DPRK and "Oreshnik") and Cruise Missile Attack on Kyiv and/or State-Sponsored Terrorist Attack in NATO/EU Capital Attributed to "Global Conflict Actors" or "Ukrainian Saboteurs": RUF launches a major, synchronized offensive operation across multiple axes (Sumy, Kharkiv, and intensified Pokrovsk/Siversk), leveraging the 52,000 troop concentration and overwhelming air/missile support, aimed for a decisive operational breakthrough. This is preceded or accompanied by a direct, high-casualty mass ballistic missile (including DPRK types and "Oreshnik") and cruise missile attack on Kyiv, targeting government districts or critical infrastructure, aimed at maximizing terror and disruption, consistent with the "warm-up" and "renovation" messaging and the current kinetic strikes, potentially including the use of cluster munitions on civilian areas. Concurrently, RUF sponsors or executes a high-profile, high-casualty terrorist attack in a European capital, attributing it to "Ukrainian extremists," "ISIS," or "global conflict actors" or, more specifically, to the fabricated "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran" narrative to provide a direct, false link to Ukraine, to maximize international panic and compel a fragmented, inward-looking international response, creating a window for RUF's strategic gains in Ukraine. This MDCOA is further supported by the current aggressive IO shift regarding "Kyiv Oblast," the explicit dehumanization, the new TASS fabrication about Tehran and the direct claims against UAF, the specific focus on fabricating UAF atrocities (e.g., "mined scooter"), the new fabrication of kinetic events in the "global war" narrative, the new, direct claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran," the use of manipulated media (e.g., NYT, AI/deepfakes), and the new claims of high-level diplomatic engagement regarding the fabricated Iran conflict, and the renewed focus on Moldova/Transnistria. (MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 0-6 hours, starting from 231220Z JUN 25):
  • RUF: Expect continued large-scale Shahed drone, ballistic missile (including potential DPRK types and "Oreshnik"), and cruise missile attacks targeting critical infrastructure and military facilities across Ukraine, including follow-on waves in Kyiv and other central/southern oblasts (Bila Tserkva, Kryvyi Rih, Kharkiv, Poltava, Vasylkiv, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, Odesa, and now specifically training institutions in Odesa Oblast). Expect immediate follow-on narratives regarding the fabricated "Iran-Israel/US War," specifically expanding on new fabricated kinetic events and utilizing new manipulated media (e.g., Fordo, Hormuz, food security impacts, Putin meeting Iranian FM, Russia in contact with US on Iran, fabricated Ashdod strike, fabricated Israeli attacks, fabricated IRGC statements claiming attacks on all Israeli territory, and new TASS claims of US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities citing Grossi, and AI/deepfake imagery). Expect new narratives of Russia's diplomatic role in this fabricated conflict, including Peskov's statements on open channels with Trump, and continued showcasing of new alliances (e.g., Mali visit). Expect increased, aggressive RUF IO, including further direct threats ("renovation") and dehumanization of Ukrainians, likely linked to the ongoing attacks, and new fabricated atrocity claims against UAF (e.g., "mined scooter" false-flag, claims of UAF spies, claims of internal RUF atrocities, claims of UAF terrorism in Kursk, and the uncovered FSB assassination plot), along with inflated casualty claims. RUF KAB strikes on Sumy and Donetsk will continue. RUF will likely amplify claims of successful strikes in Kyiv, regardless of actual impact, and try to misattribute damage to UAF AD, specifically claiming military targets were hit. RUF will maintain pressure and rhetoric on Moldova/Transnistria and continue to sow disunity among allies (e.g., Japan/NATO, US-EU, blocking of EU sanctions, accusations against Serbia). RUF will continue to use internal control mechanisms and cultural erasure (Ukrainian language from schools), and promote foreign recruitment, and use domestic legal cases as IO. RUF will push narratives of internal Ukrainian opposition supporting Russia. RUF will continue ground assaults as detailed by UAF General Staff. RUF will continue to equip Tu-95MS strategic bombers and integrate new officers. RUF will continue to task psychological rehabilitation for veterans.
  • UAF Decision Point: Immediately issue an even more robust and direct public counter-narrative specifically debunking the latest, most egregious RUF fabrications regarding the "Iran-Israel/US War" (e.g., fabricated TASS reports of Trump destroying nuclear facilities, manipulated New York Times articles, and IDF claims, new Fordo/Hormuz claims, food security impacts, fabricated diplomatic engagements, fabricated Israeli attacks, fabricated IRGC statements claiming attacks on all Israeli territory, and new TASS claims of US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities citing Grossi, and the use of AI/deepfake imagery) and especially the new, highly dangerous claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran," and claims of UAF spies, and the uncovered FSB assassination plot. Publicly and directly address specific Ukrainian media outlets (e.g., РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, Rybar) that amplified these narratives, demanding immediate corrections and outlining severe consequences for continued amplification of enemy disinformation during wartime. Issue a public warning about RUF's new, aggressive IO (the "warm-up," dehumanization, "renovation," and now the mockery related to Kyiv becoming "prettier" and atrocity fabrications, and the new kinetic fabrications, and the direct implication of Ukraine in the fabricated global war), framing it as a clear signal of intent for future, more severe combined attacks (ballistic, cruise, and UAVs) on Kyiv and other civilian targets, contrasting RUF MoD claims with civilian reality. Reinforce civil defense measures and ensure rapid damage assessment teams are deployed. Continue strengthening AD capabilities, particularly with volunteer formations.
• Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
  • RUF: Expect launch of major ground offensive on the Sumy axis, possibly with intensification of ground probing and shaping operations on the Kharkiv axes, with increased cross-border shelling, KABs, and drone activity, possibly preparing for a larger offensive. Continued high-intensity pressure on the Pokrovsk direction. Continued targeting of civilian infrastructure (now with Bila Tserkva, Chernihiv, Odesa, and Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi confirmed impacts, including hospitals, business centers, and training institutions) and UAF force generation assets (training grounds, barracks, KPI pool, and claimed UAF Navy arsenal, and confirmed Sumy training center). The 22 JUN 1941 historical narrative will continue to be reinforced, potentially with more aggressive rhetoric targeting Kyiv. RUF will continue to prioritize targeting UAF drone control and logistics. Continued IO pressure on Moldova and undermining of international unity.
  • UAF Decision Point: Intensify diplomatic efforts with European partners and the US to share granular intelligence on RUF's escalating global IO campaign (especially new kinetic fabrications and media manipulation, the direct implication of Ukraine in the fabricated global conflict, and fabricated diplomatic engagements, and AI/deepfake imagery), coordinating pre-emptive responses. Emphasize the new, direct threats against Ukrainian civilians, the extreme dehumanization, and the fabrication of UAF atrocities (e.g., "mined scooter," terrorism cases in Kursk, assassination plots) as precursors to war crimes. Conduct comprehensive BDA on all Kyiv, Bila Tserkva, Chernihiv, Odesa, and Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi impacts to inform future AD strategies. Ensure maritime forces are prepared for potential escalations in the Black Sea, especially given Norway's commitment to uncrewed vessels. Consolidate gains and prepare for further defensive operations on the Sumy/Kharkiv axes. Continue to highlight military professionalism and combat readiness through media. Address public concerns regarding the pace of Western aid and sanctions.

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6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Activate a dedicated, 24/7, multi-agency task force for real-time forensic analysis and aggressive, global debunking of Russia's extreme IO fabrications. Focus on exposing the "Iran-Israel/US War" narrative, particularly new elements like fabricated kinetic events (e.g., TASS report of Trump claiming destruction of nuclear facilities, manipulated New York Times articles, and IDF claims, new Fordo/Hormuz claims, and food security impacts, fabricated Putin/Iranian FM meeting, fabricated Russia/US contacts on Iran, fabricated Ashdod strike, fabricated Israeli attacks, fabricated IRGC statements claiming attacks on all Israeli territory, and new TASS claims of US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities citing Grossi), the use of manipulated media (e.g., fabricated NYT articles, fabricated Ashdod strike, AI/deepfake imagery), fabricated atrocity claims against UAF (e.g., "finishing off wounded," Svatove bus stop, "mined scooter" in Kharkiv, fabricated internal RUF atrocities, FSB claims of spy arrests, claims of UAF terrorism in Kursk, and the uncovered FSB assassination plot), the inflated UAF casualty claims from Marochko, and claimed 100 UAF casualties in Sumy, and especially the new, aggressive direct threats ("warm-up," "renovation," "Kyiv is getting prettier") and dehumanization ("Khokhols") from RUF milbloggers, linking them directly to RUF's escalating kinetic operations and confirmed civilian casualties, and to the 22 JUN 1941 historical pretext. CRITICALLY, this task force must immediately and aggressively debunk the new claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran," highlighting it as a transparent attempt to directly implicate Ukraine in RUF's fabricated global conflict, and expose fabricated attacks on US bases in Syria. Identify specific RUF IO cells and their external networks globally to disrupt dissemination. Also, proactively counter RUF accusations against third-party arms suppliers (e.g. Serbia) and Russian paint in car localization.
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Surge all-source ISR to the Sumy and Kharkiv axes to provide immediate warning of a major RUF ground offensive. This is the #1 intelligence priority.
3. HIGH: Increase all-source ISR on Bryansk, Kursk, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, and Odesa Oblasts for early warning of any large-scale RUF ground movements, ballistic missile/cruise missile/UAV launch preparations, or build-ups that might indicate a major offensive. Prioritize SIGINT for RUF C2 related to drone, cruise missile, ballistic missile (including DPRK types and "Oreshnik"), and KAB operations and targeting of UAF drone assets and UAF training grounds. Prioritize SIGINT/IMINT for Tu-95MS strategic bomber activity and the integration of new RUF officers.
4. HIGH: Conduct immediate, detailed BDA on all confirmed impacts in Kyiv, particularly in Shevchenkivskyi, Sviatoshyn, and Podilskyi Districts, and now in Bila Tserkva, Chernihiv, Odesa, and Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, to identify munition types (especially ballistic, as confirmed by MIA Klymenko, and including potential "Oreshnik" missiles), confirm specific targets (residential vs. military/industrial, hotel/clinic/hospital/business center vs. military/training institution), and refine AD response and counter-targeting, explicitly contrasting with RUF MoD claims of military targets. This must include forensic analysis of fragments to confirm Iskander use, Lancet use, and potential DPRK ballistic missile use. Conduct immediate BDA of the Kremenchuk and UAF training ground strikes, and the confirmed Sumy training center strike to identify RUF targeting patterns, munition types, and intelligence vulnerabilities to inform AD and force protection posture.
5. HIGH: Conduct immediate BDA on the Rostov Oblast "Atlas" combine strike, confirming munitions used and extent of damage to RUF logistics/storage capabilities.
6. MEDIUM: Verify RUF claims of successful UAF drone unit targeting or specific strikes on military assets (e.g., Zhuliany Patriot site, Antonov plant).
7. MEDIUM: Monitor RUF's rhetoric and any observable force movements concerning Moldova and Transnistria for potential escalations or hybrid actions.
8. MEDIUM: Verify RUF claims of breakthroughs toward Siversk and Mirnohrad and the stability of UAF defensive lines, and claims of UAF armored vehicle destruction near Novosergievka and UAF retreat near LPR, and drone strikes on UAF logistics near Krasnoarmeysk, and the new RUF MoD claim of T-80BVM tank destroying UAF stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Also verify RUF milblogger claim of "partisans" using a "mined scooter" to liquidate UAF personnel in Kharkiv, assessing if this is a false-flag or targeted assassination. Verify RUF claims of mortar fire and drone strikes on UAF positions in Krasnoarmeysk area and Shevchenko. Verify RUF claims of liberation of settlement in Zaporizhzhia and the claimed capture of a UAF Humvee in Shevchenko. Verify RUF claims of artillery striking UAF mortar positions in Donetsk. Verify RUF source "Slivochny Kapriz" claims of activity in Velyka Novosilka - Shevchenko.
9. LOW: Assess the impact of the Belgorod Deputy Governor's arrest on RUF internal control and local administration.
10. LOW: Verify Pushilin's claim of RUF liberating all settlements in DNR where UAF counter-attacked in 2023, and his new claim of UAF redeploying reserves west of Krasnoarmeysk.
11. LOW: Verify TASS claim of FAB destroying UAF command post on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.
12. LOW: Verify TASS claim of foreign mercenaries and women redeployed to Yanvarskoye.
13. LOW: Verify Poddubny claim of Georgian mercenary leader "Vano Nadiradze" leaving UAF SSO ranks.
14. LOW: Assess the extent and impact of internal Russian dissent against the war (e.g., St. Petersburg "SVO temple" banner).
15. LOW: Monitor RUF's internal "military-political work" for insights into morale, indoctrination, and potential vulnerabilities, including psychological rehabilitation efforts.
16. LOW: Verify RUF MoD claim of striking a UAF Navy arsenal.
17. LOW: Verify RUF claims of military operations in Borova - Petrovske (Grekovka) area.
18. LOW: Assess the veracity and implications of the FSB detention of Zaporizhzhia residents for spying, and the uncovered FSB assassination plot in Kyiv.
19. LOW: Assess the true effectiveness of RUF's new special forces water training ground in Chechnya on force generation.
20. LOW: Assess the operational impact of RUF's claimed "drone-bomber" capabilities.
21. LOW: Monitor for any significant internal developments or shifts in RUF associated with the 2nd anniversary of the Wagner mutiny.
22. LOW: Verify ASTRA claim of UAF striking military unit in Belgorod Oblast, causing two fatalities.
23. LOW: Verify the incident in Kursk Oblast where a Military Police chief was killed attempting to detain looters, and its broader implications for RUF internal discipline and control, and the reported arrest of the killers and the sentencing of a Ukrainian militant for crimes in Kursk Oblast.
24. LOW: Verify Russian claims of Evin prison strike in Tehran.
25. LOW: Verify the significance and context of the captured H&K M320A1 grenade launcher, as displayed by "Dva Mayora."
26. LOW: Assess the implications of the withdrawn appeal for arrested entrepreneur Samvel Karapetyan, and its impact on RUF internal legal proceedings and elite cohesion.

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

1. URGENT: Reinforce AD assets, especially anti-ballistic (like Patriot/SAMP-T, and systems effective against DPRK/Oreshnik missiles), anti-cruise missile, and counter-UAV capabilities, in all major cities and vulnerable strategic areas across Ukraine, including military objects/training grounds (especially those in Odesa Oblast), particularly in areas susceptible to Iskander, Lancet, and DPRK missile strikes and KABs, and in anticipation of a potential saturation attack of up to 250 drones and ballistic/cruise missiles. Accelerate the delivery and integration of new AD systems. Prioritize additional mobile AD units for Kyiv and its approaches to counter drone, cruise missile, and ballistic missile penetration, given RUF's explicit "warm-up" and "renovation" threats and specific targeting of civilian areas and confirmed ballistic strikes on residential buildings. Re-posture and reinforce AD assets, particularly anti-ballistic/hypersonic missile and counter-KAB systems, to the Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Odesa axes in anticipation of strikes supporting the imminent ground offensive and further targeting of strategic infrastructure.
2. HIGH: Implement immediate damage assessment and consequence management for impacts in Kyiv Oblast, Bila Tserkva, Chernihiv, Odesa, and Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, ensuring rapid repair of damaged infrastructure and support for affected civilians. Prioritize structural assessment of the affected multi-story residential building in Shevchenkivskyi District given confirmed fatalities.
3. URGENT/CRITICAL: Implement a nationwide review and upgrade of force protection protocols for all UAF training grounds, assembly areas, and critical infrastructure, emphasizing dispersion, camouflage, and deception, following the confirmed strike on a UAF training ground, the confirmed hit on KPI, and the confirmed Sumy training center strike, and the new strikes on training institutions in Odesa Oblast.
4. MEDIUM: Disperse and protect critical infrastructure in Bila Tserkva, Kryvyi Rih, Kharkiv, Poltava, Vasylkiv, Zhytomyr, and Dnipropetrovsk, preparing for anticipated drone, cruise missile, and ballistic missile attacks.
5. URGENT: Disseminate updated force protection guidance for civilians and first responders addressing the threat of cluster-type munitions with anti-personnel fragmentation.
6. MEDIUM: Integrate and disseminate best practices for anti-drone vehicle modifications based on RUF adaptations, and develop specific countermeasures against such tactics, including aerial ramming.
7. MEDIUM: Continue to develop and deploy local volunteer AD groups in urban areas, supporting with training and equipment.

6.3. Ground Forces:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Elevate readiness to maximum alert on the Sumy, Kharkiv, and northern Kyiv axes, particularly in response to KAB launches and increased RUF IO directly targeting Kyiv Oblast and implying large-scale escalation. Ensure strategic reserves are postured for rapid deployment to counter a large-scale RUF ground assault. Fully leverage newly constructed fortifications.
2. URGENT: Reinforce forward defensive positions and strategic reserves on the Pokrovsk direction (Donetsk Oblast) to counter persistent RUF assaults and prevent breakthroughs. Continue to reinforce defensive positions around Pokrovsk, Mirnohrad, and Siversk.
3. HIGH: Review and adapt UAF drone operations to counter RUF's demonstrated capability to target UAF drone control points and conduct aerial ramming. Enhance concealment, mobility, and redundancy for drone crews and equipment. Accelerate fielding of counter-drone EW systems to frontline units.
4. MEDIUM: Analyze RUF's adaptation of FPV drones for logistics and develop countermeasures to disrupt this supply chain.
5. MEDIUM: Prioritize procurement and distribution of equipment needed by frontline units, leveraging civilian fundraising networks, and streamlining official procurement processes. Continue construction of physical anti-drone protection for critical ground routes and assets (e.g., anti-drone tunnels in Zaporizhzhia).

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch an immediate, aggressive, and sustained, multi-domain (social media, traditional media, diplomatic channels) counter-IO campaign specifically targeting RUF's increasingly dangerous "Iran-Israel/US War" fabrication, its fabricated diplomatic statements and resolutions, attributed quotes, false operational details, and the new, highly inflammatory "regime change" narratives, including the use of manipulated media and AI/deepfake imagery. Crucially, this campaign must expose and directly respond to RUF's new, explicit threats against Ukrainian civilians ("warm-up," "renovation"), the extreme dehumanization ("Khokhols," "Kyiv is getting prettier"), especially the new, fabricated atrocity claims against UAF ("finishing off wounded," Svatove bus stop, "mined scooter" in Kharkiv, fabricated internal RUF atrocities, FSB claims of spy arrests, claims of UAF terrorism in Kursk, and the uncovered FSB assassination plot), the vastly inflated UAF casualty claims, and claimed 100 UAF casualties in Sumy, and the new, direct, and fabricated claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran," linking them directly to RUF's escalating kinetic operations and confirmed civilian casualties, and to the 22 JUN 1941 historical pretext. This campaign must:
   • Directly name and shame Ukrainian media outlets (e.g., РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, Rybar) that are amplifying RUF disinformation, providing immediate, clear, and actionable guidance on ethical reporting during wartime and the severe consequences of aiding enemy propaganda. This requires direct intervention from the highest levels of government.
   • Forensically debunk the latest, most kinetic and diplomatic fabrications (e.g., TASS report of Trump claiming destruction of nuclear facilities, fabricated Trump "regime change" quote, manipulated NYT articles, TASS reports of IDF recording missile launches, Fordo/Hormuz claims, food security impacts, fabricated Putin/Iranian FM meeting, fabricated Russia/US contacts on Iran, fabricated Ashdod strike, fabricated Israeli attacks, fabricated IRGC statements claiming attacks on all Israeli territory, and new TASS claims of US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities citing Grossi, and AI/deepfake imagery), providing clear evidence of their falsehood.
   • Frame Russia's actions as a deliberate, desperate attempt to create global chaos and divert attention from its war crimes and failures in Ukraine, directly linking this to Zelenskyy's warning about RUF preparing operations in Europe, the 22 JUN 1941 historical pretext, and the new aggressive rhetoric targeting Kyiv Oblast, especially the "warm-up" threat, "renovation" mockery, and dehumanization.
   • Proactively counter RUF accusations against third-party arms suppliers (e.g. Serbia), providing verifiable information on all aid and highlighting RUF's intent to sow discord.
2. URGENT: Intensify diplomatic engagement with key international partners, particularly the US, EU, and NATO members, to share granular intelligence on RUF's escalating global IO campaign and its potential for false-flag operations or further escalation, explicitly highlighting the "regime change" elements, the use of media manipulation, the fabrication of UAF atrocities, the new, direct threats against Ukrainian civilians and the extreme dehumanization, and the new, fabricated claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran," and the new fabrication of diplomatic engagements. Coordinate a unified international response to publicly denounce and debunk RUF's fabrications and warn of their escalatory intent. Address and counter RUF attempts to sow discord between US and EU (e.g., "US can deprive Europe of internet", Hungary and Slovakia blocking sanctions).
3. HIGH: Develop and disseminate clear, concise public messages for civilians in Kyiv and other threatened cities on what the RUF "warm-up" and "renovation" messages mean, emphasizing that they are psychological operations designed to instill fear, and reinforcing UAF's commitment to defense. Publicly highlight damage to civilian infrastructure (e.g., Shevchenkivskyi residential building, Sviatoshyn Metro, bus stop, Bila Tserkva hotel/clinic/residential/hospital, Chernihiv village outskirts, Solomyanskyi business center, Odesa/Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi training institutions) as direct evidence of RUF war crimes and intent to terrorize, emphasizing the confirmed fatalities and wounded, directly countering RUF MoD claims of military targets. Publicly confirm the hit on the KPI swimming pool as evidence of RUF targeting urban infrastructure.
4. MEDIUM: Publicly refute RUF's false casualty figures, providing verified UAF casualty data or explaining the severe methodological flaws in RUF's propaganda, to maintain public trust and counter demoralization efforts.
5. URGENT: Proactively message UAF successes, particularly the liberation of Andriyivka and successful deep strikes on RUF logistics and targets within Russia (e.g., Rostov "Atlas" combine, destroyed radar system), and significant tactical successes (e.g., SBU tank destruction claims, uncovering FSB assassination plots), to counter the RUF narrative of inevitable victory and demonstrate UAF's continued capability and resolve.
6. MEDIUM: Leverage UAF unit media (e.g., DSHV, 47th Mech Brig, SBU, 82nd Airmobile Brigade, Patrol Police, NGU, 1st Tank Brigade) to consistently demonstrate professionalism, training, and care for personnel to counter RUF dehumanization and demoralization efforts. Highlight international support for UAF capabilities (e.g., Norway drone aid, NASAMS office, volunteer procurement, New Zealand aid, Ukroboronprom-Airbus cooperation, Zelenskyy's UK visit, Norway uncrewed vessel manufacturing). Address and alleviate public frustration regarding international support. Promote successful fundraising efforts like DeepState's PS5 lottery.
7. MEDIUM: Counter RUF narratives aimed at normalizing occupation (e.g., Mariupol) by emphasizing continued UAF commitment to liberation. Counter RUF's cultural erasure efforts (Ukrainian language from schools) with public statements and support for Ukrainian culture in occupied territories.
8. MEDIUM: Actively expose and counter RUF's efforts to incentivize foreign recruitment by highlighting the realities of RUF service and high casualty rates.
9. MEDIUM: Publicly address humanitarian concerns for soldiers, including medical care and identification of deceased personnel (as highlighted by MIA Klymenko's statements and the worsening condition of bodies received), to maintain trust and morale.

END OF REPORT