Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

---

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Kyiv Oblast:
  • Kyiv City: Confirmed seven (7) fatalities in Kyiv as a result of the night attack (6 city, 1 Bila Tserkva). Confirmed 31 wounded in Kyiv as of 230805Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Shevchenkivskyi District: Confirmed multi-story residential building fire and significant structural damage. Death toll increased to six (6) confirmed fatalities from this location. New video footage from Ukrainian sources shows extensive damage, rescue operations, and destroyed vehicles, consistent with a direct impact on a civilian structure. RUF sources are amplifying footage of fires and destruction in Kyiv, confirming the kinetic event, and attempting to misattribute damage to UAF AD. New video shows aerial view of damaged multi-story building, rescue operations with heavy machinery, and survivor accounts. New photos confirm a married couple among the Kyiv fatalities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Sviatosh District: Confirmed three (3) casualties due to falling debris, auto and bus stop fires. One exit from Sviatoshyn metro station temporarily closed. Public transport routes partially altered. New video confirms damage to a bus stop in Sviatoshynskyi District, Kyiv, with emergency personnel present. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Podilskyi District: Confirmed fire in a non-residential building. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Solomyanskyi District: New video shows a damaged business center and other objects, indicating broader damage beyond residential areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • KPI (Kyiv Polytechnic Institute) im. Ihor Sikorskyi: UAF sources now confirm "fragments of a Russian missile" hit the KPI swimming pool, causing serious damage. This corroborates previous RUF claims of a strike on KPI, though the target (swimming pool vs. main building) and munition (fragments vs. direct hit) differ from initial RUF claims of a direct Iskander strike. New photo confirms missile fragments damaged KPI sports complex. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kyiv Oblast (Bila Tserkva): Confirmed multiple impacts, damaging the Greblya Club complex, a hotel, a medical clinic, residential buildings with civilians. New information confirms 1 fatality in Bila Tserkva, where a "Shahed" hit a hospital. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kyiv Oblast (General): Head of Kyiv OVA, Mykola Kalashnyk, reports three districts in Kyiv Oblast affected. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Zhytomyr Oblast: Threat of enemy Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) declared at 230127Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kharkiv Oblast: Air Force of Ukraine reports launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) by enemy tactical aviation. RUF forces captured Petrovske (Kharkiv Oblast). Kharkiv OVA Head, Oleh Syniehubov, reports 4 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes over the past day. New threat of enemy UAVs declared for Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New RUF milblogger video claims "partisans" liquidated two UAF militants from the 154th Brigade in Kharkiv using a "mined scooter," supported by surveillance footage showing an explosion. This is likely a false-flag or targeted assassination. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) New photo confirms a rally in Kharkiv in support of missing/captured defenders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Donetsk Oblast: Air Force of Ukraine reports launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) by enemy tactical aviation. RUF forces achieved confirmed tactical gains, capturing Perebudova (Donetsk). RUF sources claim a FAB strike on a UAF stronghold in the Yalta area (Donetsk Oblast). (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim with visual evidence). Poddubny claims drone strikes on UAF logistics and personnel near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, with visual evidence). New RUF MoD video claims a T-80BVM tank obliterated a UAF stronghold in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, visual evidence). New UAF video shows 82nd Airmobile Brigade drone hunting "motor-katsaps" (RUF personnel on motorcycles) in Donetsk Oblast, indicating continued UAF offensive drone operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New RUF MoD video shows combat service support delivering food and ammunition using FPV drones in the Krasny Liman direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New RUF milblogger claims show a drone observing a damaged armored vehicle with '69 ОБрП' insignia, followed by an explosion. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) New RUF milblogger claims are soliciting donations for the Pokrovsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New TASS message claims Pushilin states UAF is redeploying reserves west of Krasnoarmeysk in DNR. (LOW CONFIDENCE). New video claims RUF forces are continuing offensive operations, "breaking through enemy defenses in the Krasnoarmeysk area," and features a video of mortar fire on UAF positions. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). New video claims "camouflage did not save UAF relay stations and dugouts from drone strikes of the 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment," showing aerial drone footage of explosions. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). New video claims "damage to a UAF position in Shevchenko by drone operators of the 57th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade," with drone footage of a building being struck. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district): Air Force of Ukraine reports threat of enemy aerial weapons employment. Nikopolshchyna targeted again by RUF FPV-drones and shelling. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New TASS message claims RUF used FAB to destroy a UAF command post on the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). New TASS message claims UAF has redeployed foreign mercenaries and women to Yanvarskoye on the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and DNR. (LOW CONFIDENCE).
• Zaporizhzhia Direction: Zaporizhzhia OVA reports partial restoration of electricity to settlements previously de-energized. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Zaporizhzhia OVA shares a video of a moment of silence for fallen defenders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New photo details pension payments for disabled military personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New video from Russian sources claims liberation of a settlement in Zaporizhzhia, stating it's the fourth this month and that UAF forces are fleeing. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified by UAF).
• Sumy Oblast: President Zelenskyy's confirmation of a 52,000-strong RUF force concentration on the Sumy axis validates previous intelligence of a significant offensive buildup. UAF has conducted a successful localized counter-offensive, liberating the settlement of Andriyivka (Sumy Oblast) and stabilizing the flank. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF sources are now providing detailed "frontline summaries" for the Sumy direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New video shows defensive preparations and anti-tank obstacles in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Mykolaiv Oblast (Ochakiv): Two Kh-59/69 Guided Aerial Missiles (KABs) struck Ochakiv, wounding three people. New photos confirm two aviation missiles struck Ochakiv, wounding 3, and damaging 2 multi-story buildings, 22 private homes, power lines, and civilian cars. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Chernihiv Oblast: Unspecified "Snovska hromada village" outskirts hit by Lancet UAV, resulting in two (2) fatalities and ten (10) wounded, including children. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New video claims "Gerans" (Shaheds) actively worked against targets in Chernihiv Oblast overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF Internal (Smolensk, Bryansk, Rostov, Volgograd, Astrakhan, Belgorod): UAF drones continue to successfully strike RUF assets deep inside Russian territory (Smolensk, Bryansk). RUF MoD and RUF milbloggers claim 23 UAVs intercepted over Rostov, Volgograd, and Astrakhan Oblasts. Belgorod Oblast Deputy Governor arrested. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF is using domestic news (diamond theft, ticks, newborn, bear attack) as IO distractions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New photo and text confirms Russian passport issuance to a "Tajikistan native" who participated in "special military operation," highlighting recruitment of foreign nationals. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New message claims RUF AD intercepted 16 UAVs (plane-type) over Russia during the night of 22-23 June. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New video reports a man arrested in St. Petersburg for financing an "extremist organization," indicating continued internal crackdowns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New message from Tsaplienko reports fire in Rostov Oblast on territory of Rosrezerv's "Atlas" combine (likely a storage facility) after impacts, indicating successful UAF deep strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New photo reports a banner placed in St. Petersburg near a "SVO temple" construction site reads "No place for a temple here," suggesting internal dissent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New video from Moscow shows migrants butchering a ram on a children's playground. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - domestic IO). New video from Moscow shows a Mercedes on fire in a tunnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - domestic IO). New photo reports a dangerous criminal being presented to children by officials, likely a domestic propaganda effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New ASTRA reports on an arrest in Nizhnekamsk for preparing a terrorist attack on a petrochemical complex, accompanied by video of confession. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Situation controlled as of 230635Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Overall: RUF continues a multi-vector, multi-munition kinetic attack, with Kyiv as the primary target for missile/UAV strikes, resulting in significant damage to residential and non-residential civilian infrastructure and increased casualties across Kyiv City and Oblast, now including Bila Tserkva. The concurrent UAV threat in Zhytomyr and KAB strikes in Kharkiv/Donetsk/Mykolaiv/Dnipropetrovsk indicate continued saturation attempts and pressure across multiple axes. RUF ground forces continue attritional assaults in Donetsk and Kharkiv, securing minor gains, while a significant force concentration looms on the Sumy axis. A new Lancet strike in Chernihiv Oblast causing civilian casualties indicates a continued, broad targeting of civilian areas. RUF is demonstrating logistical sustainment for frontline operations in Kherson direction and for transportation of heavy equipment. New UAF reports indicate potential use of DPRK ballistic missiles by RUF in Kyiv attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF continues offensive operations in the Krasnoarmeysk area, and drone strikes against UAF positions, including relay stations and dugouts. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) UAF has conducted a successful deep strike on a Russian storage facility in Rostov Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

• Night conditions continue to complicate UAF Air Defense (AD) visual identification of incoming threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF):
  • Air Defense (AD): Engaged against incoming cruise missiles and UAVs. Air raid alerts were active and terminated. UAF AD successfully intercepted 28/47 UAVs and 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles during overnight attacks, but RUF volume and multi-vector attacks continue to pose a saturation challenge, resulting in impacts. Air Force of Ukraine reports 354/368 aerial targets neutralized. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Air Force: Providing timely warnings of KAB launches on Kharkiv and Donetsk, and aerial weapons threat for Dnipropetrovsk. A UAF MiG-29 successfully deployed AASM HAMMER on RUF targets in Kozynka (Belgorod Oblast, Russia), indicating continued offensive air capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kyiv City Military Administration (KCMA): Actively providing real-time updates on impacts, damage, and casualties (Shevchenkivskyi, Sviatoshyn, Podilskyi, Solomyanskyi districts). KCMA now reports six (6) fatalities in Kyiv, including a confirmed married couple. New KCMA video with Timur Tkachenko confirms increased casualties in Kyiv. New reports confirm 31 wounded in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Emergency Services (DSNS): Responding to fires and providing aid to casualties in Kyiv. DSNS has released initial photos and videos of the aftermath, confirming fatalities and wounded in Kyiv Oblast and showcasing rescue efforts, including rescuing a child and a pregnant woman. DSNS press service head noted the need to clear trees and remove vehicles in Shevchenkivskyi. DSNS also confirms six (6) fatalities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New photos show DSNS personnel engaged in search and rescue. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • General Staff of UAF: Providing official updates on the situation as of 08:00, 23 JUN 25, including estimated RUF losses. Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlits" reports at least 6483 RUF officers "demobilized" (KIA/WIA/MIA) since Feb 2022. New image shows "Estimated enemy losses" from Feb 24, 2022 to Jun 23, 2025. New photos show 23rd Separate Mechanized Brigade conducting a psychological obstacle course. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Grouping of Forces of Unmanned Systems: Newly established and operational, indicating UAF adaptation to drone warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Norway is providing $400M for drones, and NASAMS producer opened office in Ukraine, as announced by Zelenskyy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO reports acquiring 500 FPV drones in the past two days, with 197,563 FPV drones acquired overall. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration: Reports partial restoration of power in affected areas and holds a moment of silence for fallen defenders. New photo highlights pension payments for disabled military personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Office of the General Prosecutor: Documenting damage and casualties in Kyiv, confirming six (6) fatalities and over 16 wounded, and providing photographic evidence for war crimes proceedings. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Coordination Staff for POWs: GUR and MFA evacuated 176 people from Israel, including 133 Ukrainian citizens. New photos show a meeting with families of 152nd Separate Jaeger Brigade members. New photos show a rally in Kharkiv in support of missing/captured defenders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Reconnaissance (DSHV): DSHV shares video depicting reconnaissance soldiers, their training, equipment, and use of thermal optics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Medical Services (47th Mechanized Brigade): Shares video of medical care for wounded soldier, indicating field medical capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • SBU Special Operations (ЦСО «А» СБУ): New video shows SBU Special Operations Center "A" (ЦСО «А» СБУ) soldiers in tactical gear, indicating continued elite special forces activity and readiness. New photo also confirms SBU Special Operations Center "Alpha" activities. New video features a greeting from the Head of the SBU to the 31st anniversary of the creation of the Special Operations Center "A", showcasing their operational capabilities, including drone usage and strikes on military targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • 82nd Airmobile Brigade: New video shows their drone pilots actively targeting RUF personnel in Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Presidential Activities: New video shows President Zelenskyy reacting to the night attack, condemning RUF's "cynical strike" with Shaheds and missiles on civilian infrastructure in Kyiv and other cities, confirming 6 killed in Kyiv (5 residential buildings damaged) and 1 in Bila Tserkva (hospital hit by Shahed). This demonstrates high-level leadership engagement and immediate public response. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New photo indicates President Zelenskyy's statement accusing Russia of using DPRK ballistic missiles in the Kyiv attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ukrainian Police: New photo shows a policeman in uniform, likely promoting police readiness. New video reports "RF usually transfers bodies of dead in terrible condition," citing National Police, indicating forensic and identification efforts for deceased UAF personnel. New photos of items found with Russian military bodies during repatriations indicate forensic work. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • National Guard (NGU): New photo shows a unit of the NGU's "Rubizh" brigade collecting funds to restore destroyed property and equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration: New video celebrating Public Service Day indicates continued administrative function. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Russian Forces (RUF):
  • Kinetic Operations:
    • Missile/UAV Strikes: Confirmed impacts in Kyiv resulting in fires and casualties. RUF sources claim Iskander missile strikes on Kyiv, specifically targeting KPI. UAF reports now confirm a hit on the KPI swimming pool. RUF MoD and milbloggers claim 23 UAVs intercepted over Rostov, Volgograd, and Astrakhan Oblasts. Massive combined-arms strike on Kremenchuk (Poltava Oblast) targeting strategic energy infrastructure. Successful precision missile strike on a UAF training ground. Persistent KAB, missile, and UAV strikes continue across Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Odesa, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Two Kh-59/69 KABs struck Ochakiv. New Lancet strike confirmed in Chernihiv Oblast resulting in casualties. New WarGonzo photo claims "RUF conducted mass drone attack on Kyiv." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF milblogger video claims "partisans" liquidated two UAF militants from the 154th Brigade in Kharkiv using a "mined scooter," supported by surveillance footage showing an explosion. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). New video claims "Gerans" (Shaheds) actively worked against targets in Kyiv, Chernihiv, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Poltava, Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New video provides a "chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine 22-23 June 2025," showcasing RUF BDA footage of impacts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • UAV Operations: Threat declared for Zhytomyr Oblast and now Kharkiv Oblast. FPV drones used against Nikopolshchyna. Lancet used in Chernihiv Oblast. Poddubny claims drone strikes on UAF logistics and personnel near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). New RUF MoD video shows combat service support delivering food and ammunition using FPV drones in the Krasny Liman direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New message claims RUF AD intercepted 16 UAVs (plane-type) over Russia during the night of 22-23 June. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New video claims "camouflage did not save UAF relay stations and dugouts from drone strikes of the 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment," showing aerial drone footage of explosions. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). New video claims "damage to a UAF position in Shevchenko by drone operators of the 57th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade," with drone footage of a building being struck. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). New video shows a heavily modified UAZ vehicle with metal spikes, claimed as protection against FPV drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • KAB Launches: Confirmed launches on Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. Aerial weapons threat declared for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RUF sources claim a successful FAB strike on a UAF stronghold in the Yalta area (Donetsk Oblast). (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). New TASS message claims RUF used FAB to destroy a UAF command post on the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
    • Ground Offensive: RUF forces achieved confirmed tactical gains, capturing Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast) and Petrovske (Kharkiv Oblast). RUF sources are publishing videos purporting to show the destruction of UAF armored vehicles ("Kozak" and BMP-1) near Novosergievka. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). New MoD Russia video claims a T-80BVM tank obliterated a UAF stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). New RUF milblogger claims show a drone observing a damaged armored vehicle with '69 ОБрП' insignia. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). New video claims RUF forces are continuing offensive operations, "breaking through enemy defenses in the Krasnoarmeysk area," and features a video of mortar fire on UAF positions. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). New video from Russian sources claims liberation of a settlement in Zaporizhzhia, stating it's the fourth this month and that UAF forces are fleeing. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified by UAF).
  • Logistics: New videos showcase RUF fuel and supply logistics units operating 24/7 in Kherson region, and a RUF driver delivering water near Artemovsk (Bakhmut), and transport of heavy military equipment. These indicate robust and continuous RUF logistical efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New RUF MoD video shows combat service support delivering food and ammunition using FPV drones in the Krasny Liman direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New Colonelcassad video and photos are fundraising for "SUMMER CAMPAIGN 2025," featuring what appears to be mortar shells being marked. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Information Operations (IO):
    • Battlefield Claims: RUF milbloggers are rapidly posting claims of successful strikes in Kyiv, often with visual "evidence." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF milbloggers are releasing "frontline summaries" for the morning of 23 JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New Rybar photo features a "Victory Narrative" banner. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New WarGonzo photo claims "Rostec began supplying the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation with the newest guided missiles." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New Alex Parker Returns photo claims a strike on a transformer substation in Ashdod, Israel, and states "I recognize my brother Kolya," which is a clear RUF attempt to fabricate a US-Israel conflict. (LOW CONFIDENCE). New Colonelcassad videos and photos show various explosions and smoke plumes in urban areas, attributed to "Iran attacks Israel." (LOW CONFIDENCE). New Alex Parker Returns videos claim "Tel Aviv also hit" and "Israel now," further perpetuating fabricated Israel attacks. (LOW CONFIDENCE). New Alex Parker Returns video claims a "hole from GBU-57" strike on a "nuclear facility in Fordo," attempting to create fabricated BDA for the "Iran-Israel/US War." (LOW CONFIDENCE). New Alex Parker Returns message claims "power outages in southern Israel after strike on Israeli electric company." (LOW CONFIDENCE). New TASS message claims "Iranian parliament plans to pass a bill on suspending cooperation with the IAEA due to its politicized position." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). New TASS message claims "Iran attacked all Israeli territory with missiles and kamikaze drones," citing IRGC statement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF fabrication).
    • Atrocity Fabrications: TASS is disseminating video "evidence" of UAF "finishing off" wounded RUF soldiers. The claim of a UAF drone attack on a bus stop in Svatove (LPR) is a likely false-flag. New RUF milblogger video claims "partisans" liquidated two UAF militants from the 154th Brigade in Kharkiv using a "mined scooter." (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). New BУТУСОВ ПЛЮС message claims a wounded Russian soldier was "shot by his comrades." (LOW CONFIDENCE).
    • Global Diversion (ESCALATED, NEW CLAIMS, Sustained Amplification): TASS continues to push narratives regarding the "global oil shock" if the Strait of Hormuz is closed by Tehran. RUF milbloggers are disseminating RUF milblogger claims and satellite imagery of "preliminary assessment of US strike damage" in Iran. WarGonzo now claims "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran." TASS further reports "US Air Force used a diversionary maneuver with two B-2 groups during the bombing of Iran," citing NYT, which is a further fabrication. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports Iran will continue uranium enrichment. TASS reports Russia plans to cancel visas with Myanmar, Jordan, and Bahrain. TASS reports Japan's PM pulling out of the NATO summit due to US strike on Iran. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New TASS message claims "Putin to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister on June 23." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Basurin photo claims "Marco Rubio believes the world has become safer after US strikes on Iran." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New TASS message claims "Israel strikes six airfields in western, eastern, and central Iran, IDF reports." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Alex Parker Returns message amplifies fabricated NYT report: "Iran evacuated equipment and uranium from the Fordo nuclear facility days before US strikes." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Colonelcassad message reports Iran will continue uranium enrichment, citing CNN sources saying underground facilities in Isfahan were not damaged. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New TASS message "Russia conducting contacts with Americans, including on situation around Iran." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Операция Z message amplifies a fabricated IDF statement: "Israeli aviation again strikes military infrastructure in Iran." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Kotsnews message titled "Militarization of ports and Trump's risky move." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Два майора video purports to show "Anti-war protests began in New York after US strikes on Iran." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New TASS message cites NYT stating "US does not know where Iran moved its uranium reserves after American strikes." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Alex Parker Returns message amplifies this, mocking "bloody Netanyahu." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Басурин о главном message warns of oil price spike if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Alex Parker Returns photo "Iron Dome. Results." (LOW CONFIDENCE). New Alex Parker Returns video features a man speaking about "children of US citizens living and dying on the front lines." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New photo claims Japan's PM may cancel his visit to The Hague for the NATO summit due to US strikes on Iran. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New video from ASTRA claims "Protests against Trump's decision to strike Iranian nuclear facilities were held in the USA," with accompanying video showing anti-war protests in New York. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New photo titled "How Western countries support Moldovan puppet president Maia Sandu." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Старше Эдды video promoting "Russia invites partners to form a new platform for global growth." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New TASS message claims "USA can deprive Europe of internet because the EU is almost entirely dependent on American cloud services." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New TASS message claims "Ben Gurion airport resumes operations from June 23." (LOW CONFIDENCE).
    • Mockery/Dehumanization: RUF channels are employing taunting language ("Киев хорошеет на глазах." - "Kyiv is getting better before your eyes," "вопли хохлов") immediately after strikes. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" is posting unrelated "fluffy cuteness" images. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New Alex Parker Returns message mocks a Ukrainian musician whose apartment was damaged. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС photo shows an image of a deceased individual with caption implying bad luck. (LOW CONFIDENCE). New Alex Parker Returns photo with caption "This is how you do good to people after this" alongside a picture of a deceased person. (LOW CONFIDENCE). New Alex Parker Returns video mocking a poet. (LOW CONFIDENCE).
    • Normalizing Occupation: RUF channels are posting celebratory videos from occupied Mariupol. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New message claims "Ukronazi Biletsky in a recent interview promised to retake Mariupol from Russia." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Dehumanizing Ukraine/UAF: TASS is reporting that Apty Alaudinov is on Ukraine's SBU wanted list. New message "Russia will remove the school course of Ukrainian language and literature from the federal general education program." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New video shows an interview with two individuals (presumably Ukrainian citizens) discussing their recruitment, likely RUF IO to fabricate narratives of forced mobilization. (LOW CONFIDENCE). New TASS message claims UAF has redeployed foreign mercenaries and women to Yanvarskoye. (LOW CONFIDENCE). New photo claims a "leader of Georgian mercenaries in the SSO of UAF, Vano Nadiradze, left the ranks." (LOW CONFIDENCE). New video claims "Russia is actively forming Ukrainian anti-fascist units." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New photo of Russian military items found with bodies during repatriations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Exaggerated UAF Losses: TASS, citing Andrey Marochko, claims UAF and foreign mercenaries suffered 4,100 killed and wounded in battles on the LPR frontlines over the past week. (LOW CONFIDENCE).
    • Historical Pretext: RUF state-media and milblogger channels continue to invoke the 22 June 1941 anniversary. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New Два майора photo shows a monument opening at Brest Fortress on June 21, commemorating "Soviet border guards." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New video from Uzbekistan celebrating Soviet Naval Veterans. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Domestic Diversion/Control: TASS reports Ministry of Digital Development proposes banning phone number reprogramming. News from Moscow reports a bill banning vape/e-cigarette sales. ASTRA reports criminal cases against teenage schoolgirls. Север.Реалии reports deterioration of medical services. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Архангел Спецназа promotes "God's Eye" surveillance system. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Mobilizatsia | Novosti | Srochniki shares info on a bot. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника shares video for fundraising for paratroopers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New TASS message reports two fatalities from a bear attack in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Архангел Спецназа photo claims "One of the traitors who went over to the AFU was handed over as part of an exchange...to Russia." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New TASS video reports arrests in Moscow for "Alrosa diamond theft." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Новости Москвы photo reports "Anaplasmosis-carrying ticks" spreading. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Полиция Хабаровского края photo and text confirms Russian passport issuance to a "Tajikistan native." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Новости Москвы video reports a "tiny newborn" in Moscow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New MOBILIZATSIA | Novosti | Srochniki message reports a wounded soldier declaring a hunger strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Север.Реалии reports a journalist from Crimea.Realities being released from prison. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New TASS message reports Russia "resolutely condemns the monstrous terrorist attack in Damascus." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Новости Москвы photo on Moscow weather confirms irrelevant domestic information. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New TASS video reports a man arrested in St. Petersburg for financing an "extremist organization." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Новости Москвы highlights "terraced skyscraper to be built on site of Cinema House." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Mash на Донбассе ad for "electric toothbrushes." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Alex Parker Returns video showing migrants butchering ram in Moscow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Alex Parker Returns video of Mercedes fire in Moscow tunnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New MOBILIZATSIA | Novosti | Srochniki photo of a dangerous criminal being presented to children, promoting patriotic education. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New ASTRA reports on an arrest in Nizhnekamsk for preparing a terrorist attack on a petrochemical complex, accompanied by video of confession. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New TASS message: Yuri Antonov refutes hospitalization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - domestic distraction).
    • Military-Political Work: New messages discuss the topic of "military-political work in the troops" and the "moral-psychological state of servicemen." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Ukrainian Media: РБК-Україна and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS continue to disseminate tactical analysis of images from the Kyiv attack, focusing on visual details of destruction and emergency response. РБК-Україна also highlighted the damage to a Ukrainian musician's apartment. STERNENKO highlights the need for military aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS now confirms missile fragments hitting KPI pool. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ shares images on the national moment of silence and UAF AD interception stats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Север.Реалии reports on Kyiv attack fatalities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна reports on Lancet strike in Chernihiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна reports KCMA confirmation of a married couple killed in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New video from Оперативний ЗСУ shows a damaged business center and other objects in Solomyanskyi District. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New video shows President Zelenskyy reacting to the night attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New РБК-Україна reports 7 fatalities (6 Kyiv, 1 Bila Tserkva). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 image shows UAF "Estimated enemy losses." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New Олександр Вілкул photo confirms SBU Special Operations Center "Alpha" activities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New РБК-Україна photo claims President Zelenskyy announced a visit to Britain. (LOW CONFIDENCE) New photo indicates President Zelenskyy's statement accusing Russia of using DPRK ballistic missiles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New video from Оперативний ЗСУ shows GUR and MFA evacuating 176 people from Israel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New photo shows a policeman in uniform. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New photos show 23rd Separate Mechanized Brigade conducting a psychological obstacle course. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New reports confirm 31 wounded in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New photos show ongoing search and rescue efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New video reports "RF usually transfers bodies of dead in terrible condition," citing National Police. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New photo shows NGU "Rubizh" brigade fundraising for equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New messages express frustration with the perceived ineffectiveness of sanctions and the lack of weapons. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New message from Tsaplienko reports fire in Rostov Oblast on territory of Rosrezerv's "Atlas" combine after impacts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Operativny ZSU and Rybar continue to amplify fabricated Israeli attacks on Iran. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Amplification of RUF IO).

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• HIGH: Conduct immediate Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) in Kyiv and Bila Tserkva to confirm munition types (especially Iskander and potential DPRK ballistic missile claims), specific targets hit (e.g., KPI vs. civilian infrastructure, Greblya Club/hotel/clinic/hospital vs. military targets), and the extent of damage to residential vs. military/industrial sites. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA, OSINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Assess RUF's current inventory and production rate of both cruise and ballistic missile types (Iskander, Kh-59/69, Lancet, and DPRK ballistic missiles). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, IMINT).
• MEDIUM: Evaluate the effectiveness of UAF AD against the multi-munition attack (cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, UAVs). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, OSINT).
• MEDIUM: Verify the nature and intent of RUF KAB launches on Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk/Mykolaiv. Are these routine, or shaping operations for new ground thrusts? (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT).
• CRITICAL: Verify RUF ground force disposition and immediate intent on the Sumy axis. Determine if the 52,000-strong force is postured for an immediate, large-scale offensive, or will continue shaping operations. This is the #1 intelligence priority. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, SIGINT, IMINT)
• CRITICAL: Assess the real-world impact of Russia's extreme IO fabrications, specifically the "US-Iran War" narrative, and the new claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran," and the use of manipulated media (e.g., NYT). Monitor international diplomatic and media channels for any traction or confusion caused by this narrative that could impact policy or support for Ukraine. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT on diplomatic channels)
• MEDIUM: Verify RUF claims of UAF armored vehicle destruction near Novosergievka, RUF claims of UAF retreat near LPR, and RUF claims of drone strikes on UAF logistics near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), and the new RUF MoD claim of T-80BVM tank destroying UAF stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Also verify RUF milblogger claim of "partisans" using a "mined scooter" to liquidate UAF personnel in Kharkiv, assessing if this is a false-flag or targeted assassination. Verify RUF claims of mortar fire and drone strikes on UAF positions in Krasnoarmeysk area and Shevchenko. Verify RUF claims of liberation of settlement in Zaporizhzhia. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT).
• MEDIUM: Conduct BDA on the Lancet strike in Chernihiv Oblast to confirm munition type and intent. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA, OSINT).
• LOW: Verify Pushilin's claim of RUF liberating all settlements in DNR where UAF counter-attacked in 2023, and his new claim of UAF redeploying reserves west of Krasnoarmeysk. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, IMINT).
• LOW: Verify TASS claim of FAB destroying UAF command post on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA, IMINT).
• LOW: Verify TASS claim of foreign mercenaries and women redeployed to Yanvarskoye. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, IMINT).
• LOW: Verify Poddubny claim of Georgian mercenary leader "Vano Nadiradze" leaving UAF SSO ranks. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
• LOW: Assess the extent and impact of internal Russian dissent against the war (e.g., St. Petersburg "SVO temple" banner). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).

---

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Air/Missile Capabilities: RUF has demonstrated a continued capability to execute complex, multi-domain, multi-munition air assaults against Kyiv, now confirmed to have caused significant damage and increased casualties (7 confirmed fatalities, 31 wounded). The claims of Iskander use (now with confirmed hits on KPI by UAF sources) and potential DPRK ballistic missile use suggest a renewed willingness to expend high-value ballistic missiles in urban saturation attacks, alongside cruise missiles and UAVs, designed to overwhelm layered AD. RUF also maintains capability for widespread KAB launches on frontline oblasts and now a confirmed aerial weapon threat to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and use of Kh-59/69 in Mykolaiv. RUF demonstrated the capability to plan and execute both mass combined-arms strikes (Kremenchuk) and precision strikes against high-value military targets (UAF training ground). The new confirmed strikes on civilian infrastructure in Bila Tserkva (hospital, Greblya Club, hotel, medical clinic, residential) and Chernihiv (Lancet strike on village outskirts) indicate a continued, deliberate targeting policy against non-military sites. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Ground Capabilities: The confirmed presence of a 52,000-strong RUF force on the Sumy axis signifies a critical capability for a major multi-axis ground offensive. RUF continues to conduct intense, attritional assaults on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk/Mirnohrad, Siversk), now with confirmed tactical gains at Perebudova (Donetsk) and Petrovske (Kharkiv), supported by heavy aviation (KABs, Ka-52M) and thermobaric (TOS-1A) systems. RUF propaganda continues to show confidence in destroying UAF armored vehicles, indicative of continued offensive operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF appears to possess effective drone capabilities for targeting UAF logistics and personnel, as claimed by Poddubny, and is demonstrating new adaptations for drone logistics (FPV drones for supply). RUF's 'Bars-Sarmat' Center for Special Purpose demonstrates indigenous UAV manufacturing and effective combat employment of drones against UAF armored vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF is capable of sustained mortar fire and drone strikes on UAF positions. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RUF is adapting vehicles with anti-drone defenses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF is claiming further territorial gains in Zaporizhzhia. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).

• Logistical Capabilities: RUF maintains robust and continuous logistical support for its frontline forces, including fuel, water, and heavy equipment transportation, as evidenced by recent RUF milblogger videos from the Kherson and Bakhmut directions. New RUF MoD video shows adaptation to drone logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF is continuing fundraising efforts for the "Summer Campaign 2025," indicating sustained, potentially public-supported, logistical needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Information Warfare Capabilities: RUF's IO remains highly agile, immediately exploiting kinetic events to propagate false claims of military success and further psychological pressure. The use of mockery and dehumanizing language immediately after strikes is a key tactic. RUF is also actively fabricating atrocity claims against UAF, including new "mined scooter" false-flag claims, and potentially internal RUF atrocities attributed to UAF. The claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran" and the use of manipulated media (e.g., NYT article on B-2 operations in Iran, fabricated IDF statements, fabricated Marco Rubio quotes, fabricated anti-war protests in NYC, fabricated Ashdod strike, fabricated Fordo strike, fabricated Israel power outages, fabricated IRGC statements claiming attacks on all Israeli territory) represents a new, dangerous escalation in their IO sophistication, directly tying Ukraine to the fabricated global conflict. The creation of new, fabricated kinetic events within the "global war" narrative, as seen with the Fordo claim and "damage to food security" claims, indicates a further escalation in their IO sophistication and willingness to create entirely fictitious battlefield scenarios. The recent claim of UAF losses (4,100 killed/wounded) from Marochko indicates continued attempts to demoralize UAF and inflate RUF's perceived effectiveness. The detailed "chronicles" and "summaries" from milbloggers aim to control the narrative of the conflict. The coordinated invocation of the 22 JUN 1941 historical narrative is a sophisticated, high-level IO effort to provide a pretext for escalation. RUF is leveraging domestic surveillance systems ("God's Eye") and mobilizing bots to enhance internal control and information dissemination. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF is using mixed messaging, including mundane or irrelevant content, to distract and normalize the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The new claims of Putin meeting Iranian FM and Russia having contacts with the US on Iran are designed to elevate Russia's role in this fabricated conflict and portray it as a responsible global actor. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF IO is also focusing on internal morale and political work within its armed forces, potentially indicating perceived weaknesses in these areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF is actively attempting to create a narrative of internal Ukrainian opposition groups supporting Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF is attempting to sow discord between US and EU by highlighting EU vulnerabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Intentions: RUF intends to:

  • Execute a Major Ground Offensive: The 52,000-troop concentration and the 22 JUN 1941 historical pretext indicate a high intent for a major multi-axis ground offensive, likely on the Sumy and/or Kharkiv axes, to open a new front and stretch UAF reserves. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Degrade UAF AD and Critical Infrastructure & Force Generation: Continue saturation attacks on Kyiv and other strategic cities, attempting to deplete AD interceptors and strike critical civilian (residential, transport, business centers), and now explicitly, military-linked infrastructure (training grounds, confirmed hit on KPI pool, hospital). The confirmed strikes on civilian sites in Bila Tserkva (hotel, medical clinic, hospital, residential) and Chernihiv (village outskirts) underscore this intent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Maximize Psychological Impact and Terror: The direct targeting of residential areas (Shevchenkivskyi residential building, Sviatoshyn bus stop, Bila Tserkva residential areas/hospital, Chernihiv village outskirts, Solomyanskyi business center) and the use of mocking language and personalized attacks (e.g., against Ukrainian musician, poet) are clear attempts to terrorize the civilian population and undermine morale. The increased casualty count in Kyiv and Bila Tserkva confirms this intent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Exaggerate Military Success: RUF aims to inflate perceived military successes through immediate, unverified claims of strikes on high-value targets (KPI main building, Zhuliany, Antonov) and claims of UAF equipment destruction to project strength and demoralize UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Generate False Pretexts/Justifications: By fabricating atrocity claims against UAF (e.g., "finishing off wounded," Svatove bus stop, new "mined scooter" claim, fabricated internal RUF atrocities) and now claims of "Ukrainian saboteurs" in Iran, RUF seeks to justify its own actions and potentially future escalations or war crimes. The 22 JUN 1941 narrative serves as a broad historical pretext for the entire invasion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Maintain Global Diversion (ESCALATED): Continue to intersperse unrelated domestic news and maintain the broader "Iran-Israel/US War" narrative, now with the active creation of new fabricated kinetic events and attributed statements (e.g., TASS Hormuz Strait claims, "Операция Z" Fordo claims, TASS claims of food security damage from Iranian nuclear strikes, fabricated Israeli attacks), the use of manipulated media (e.g., NYT), and directly implicating Ukraine (e.g., "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran") to make the fabricated conflict appear more real and to further divert international attention from Ukraine. The new claims of Putin meeting Iranian FM and Russia having contacts with US on Iran are intended to elevate Russia's role in this fabricated conflict. RUF intends to escalate nuclear rhetoric via Iran's IAEA cooperation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Consolidate Control in Occupied Territories: By staging celebratory events in places like Mariupol and making unverified claims of "liberating" former counter-offensive areas, RUF seeks to project normalcy and legitimacy for its occupation. The removal of Ukrainian language from school curricula is a long-term effort to erase Ukrainian identity. RUF will also attempt to suppress any narratives of Ukrainian recapture (e.g., Mariupol). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Destabilize Moldova: Continued rhetoric from TASS via Igor Dodon regarding Moldova's leadership and Transnistria suggests RUF intends to maintain pressure and potential for destabilization in the region, consistent with broader hybrid warfare aims. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Incentivize Foreign Recruitment: RUF will use offers of citizenship and other benefits to encourage foreign nationals to join its military, as seen with the Tajikistan national. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Reinforce Domestic Control and Unity: RUF IO will continue to promote internal arrests (e.g., Alrosa theft, "extremist financing," terror plot arrests) and other domestic issues (e.g., tick spread, bear attacks, urban development, ram butchering in public) as distractions, while reinforcing state control through surveillance systems and by highlighting foreign recruit benefits. RUF will attempt to manage internal discontent (e.g., hunger strike). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• RUF: The sequential use of different missile types (ballistic then cruise, or intermingled) in Kyiv attacks continues. The explicit claims of targeting specific educational/industrial sites (KPI) by RUF sources, now partially corroborated by UAF with missile fragments hitting KPI pool, indicates continued intelligence-led targeting, whether accurate or for propaganda purposes. New UAF reports indicate potential use of DPRK ballistic missiles, representing an additional sourcing adaptation for RUF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The immediate use of mocking IO ("Kyiv is getting better") linked to confirmed strikes indicates an intensified psychological warfare component. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The likely fabrication of UAF atrocities, including the "mined scooter" claim in Kharkiv, is a further escalation in RUF IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The active fabrication of kinetic events within the global "Iran-Israel/US War" narrative (e.g., Fordo attack assessment, food security claims, fabricated Israeli attacks, fabricated IRGC statements), the use of manipulated media (e.g., NYT), and now the direct implication of Ukraine through claims of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran" represents a new, dangerous escalation in RUF's IO, moving from mere narrative creation to inventing real-time battlefield scenarios directly linked to Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The successful precision strike on a UAF training ground indicates a new, dangerous focus on degrading UAF force generation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The consistent invocation of the 22 JUN 1941 narrative and monument openings is a critical, coordinated IO shift. The confirmed Lancet strike in Chernihiv Oblast indicates continued use of smaller, precision UAVs against civilian targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The promotion of internal surveillance systems ("God's Eye") and mobilizing bots indicates a focus on information control and recruitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The new claims of Putin meeting Iranian FM and Russia having contacts with the US on Iran, as well as fabricated quotes from Western politicians, demonstrate RUF's shift to actively projecting a diplomatic role in the fabricated crisis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF is adapting its logistics using FPV drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF is increasingly utilizing its own manufactured drones, as evidenced by the 'Bars-Sarmat' center, indicating an industrial adaptation to sustained drone warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF is adapting its ground vehicles with anti-drone defenses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF's shift to discuss "military-political work" internally suggests a new focus on ideological control and morale maintenance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF: UAF AD and civil defense systems continue to react rapidly to evolving threats, providing timely warnings and managing strike aftermath, as evidenced by DSNS and KCMA updates on casualties and rescue efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF's establishment of the Grouping of Forces of Unmanned Systems and acquisition of new counter-drone EW aircraft and Norway's drone aid/NASAMS office opening demonstrate adaptation to evolving threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF counter-offensives (Andriyivka, Sumy) and defensive preparations (Sumy obstacles) show tactical initiative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) GUR and MFA demonstrating capability to conduct international evacuations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF DSHV demonstrates continued focus on reconnaissance and drone operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF 47th Mech Brig highlights its robust medical support for combat casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) SBU Special Operations presence indicates continued elite unit activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) 82nd Airmobile Brigade's active drone hunting indicates effective tactical drone operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF leadership (President Zelenskyy) is immediately reacting to kinetic events with strong public condemnation and confirmation of civilian casualties, reinforcing the narrative of RUF war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF continues to publicly report on RUF losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF General Staff training photos indicate continued training, including psychological obstacle courses, to maintain soldier readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Ukrainian Patrol Police are actively engaged in response efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NGU units are actively seeking public support for equipment replacement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF executed a successful deep strike on a Russian storage facility in Rostov Oblast, demonstrating continued asymmetric capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• RUF: The sustained volume of cruise missile, UAV, ballistic missile, and KAB launches indicates robust and continued access to diverse long-range precision munitions. The potential use of DPRK ballistic missiles would further diversify RUF's long-range strike capabilities and logistics. The ability to concentrate 52,000 troops on the Sumy axis suggests robust logistical support for ground operations. New RUF videos confirm ongoing, active logistical operations, including fuel supply, water delivery, and heavy equipment transport, indicating effective sustainment for frontline units in multiple directions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad video on RUF military drivers indicates ongoing efforts to maintain logistical support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New RUF MoD video indicates adaptation of FPV drones for combat service support logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF milbloggers soliciting specific equipment (e.g., 'Milky Way 3 Pro,' '3T Classic') for the Pokrovsk direction indicates continued reliance on public funding for certain specialized items, but also sustained operational focus. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF fundraising for "Summer Campaign 2025" indicates continued need for external support for sustained operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF: UAF GUR successfully executed a deep strike on a RUF fuel train in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, impacting logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Zaporizhzhia OVA reports partial power restoration after recent strikes. No new information on general sustainment status. Norway's financial aid for drones further bolsters UAF sustainment in this critical area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO's report of successful FPV drone procurement through public fundraising demonstrates a robust and effective civilian-military logistics network. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NGU brigade fundraising indicates operational needs for replacement equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF deep strike on Rostov Oblast storage facility indicates continued efforts to degrade RUF logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• RUF: Highly effective C2 remains evident in the coordinated multi-domain air assault and the immediate, synchronized IO amplifying kinetic results. The coordinated invocation of the 22 JUN 1941 narrative across multiple channels, and the new rapid development of "Ukrainian saboteur" claims and manipulated media demonstrates high-level C2 over IO. The new IO elements, including claims of Putin meeting Iranian FM and Russia contacting the US on Iran, further demonstrate a highly centralized and coordinated IO C2 apparatus. The arrest of a Belgorod Deputy Governor might indicate internal control issues or anti-corruption efforts within RUF C2 structures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF's internal discussions on "military-political work" suggest a centralized effort to maintain morale and ideological cohesion, reflecting C2 over internal narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF: Effective tactical C2 for AD alerts, public safety, and emergency response continues. GUR and MFA C2 demonstrates effective international coordination. UAF DSHV and 47th Mech Brig videos illustrate effective unit-level C2 for reconnaissance, drone operations, and combat medical support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) SBU Special Operations and 82nd Airmobile Brigade activities indicate effective C2 at the special forces and tactical unit levels. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) President Zelenskyy's immediate public reaction and condemnation to the kinetic strikes demonstrates effective high-level C2 and public information dissemination. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) KCMA's rapid response and public updates indicate effective civilian C2 in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF General Staff training photos reinforce C2 over training programs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The coordinated efforts for POW support and disabled veteran benefits indicate effective administrative C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.5. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• HIGH: Assess RUF's inventory and production rates for Iskander ballistic missiles, Kh-59/69 missiles, Lancet UAVs, and any recently acquired DPRK ballistic missiles. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, IMINT).
• MEDIUM: Identify RUF targeting patterns related to educational/civilian infrastructure in Kyiv, especially in light of the KPI claim, and the deliberate targeting of residential areas, now confirmed with increased fatalities and impacts in Bila Tserkva and Chernihiv. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA, OSINT).
• CRITICAL: Verify RUF claims of breakthroughs toward Siversk and Mirnohrad. Determine the true extent of any RUF gains and the stability of UAF defensive lines. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
• LOW: Assess the impact of the Belgorod Deputy Governor's arrest on RUF internal control and local administration. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
• LOW: Evaluate the effectiveness and content of RUF's internal "military-political work" efforts. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).

---

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Defensive Posture: UAF AD remains actively engaged, demonstrating high readiness against persistent air attacks, successfully intercepting 354/368 aerial targets. Civilian authorities (KCMA, Emergency Services, Office of Prosecutor) are effectively managing consequences and providing public safety updates, including confirmed casualty figures and rescue operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New video shows UAF actively reinforcing defensive positions in Sumy Oblast with anti-tank obstacles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Civilian Alertness: Despite continued attacks, civilian populations are following safety instructions and are being provided timely information. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Naval Operations: UAF Naval Forces (ВМС ЗСУ) provided a situation update on maritime conditions as of 06:00, 23 JUN 25. This indicates continued situational awareness and operational readiness in the Black Sea and Azov Sea regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Force Generation & Adaptation: The newly established Grouping of Forces of Unmanned Systems is operational. UAF is acquiring new counter-drone EW aircraft ("SHARK") and developing new tactics (ground-based counter-FPV systems). UAF DSHV video shows continued training and operational readiness of reconnaissance units. Norway's commitment of $400M for drones and NASAMS producer opening an office in Ukraine further enhances UAF force generation and adaptation capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) SBU Special Operations Center "A" continues to demonstrate high readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF General Staff photos confirm 23rd Separate Mechanized Brigade conducting psychological obstacle course training, indicating a focus on combat readiness and mental resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Volunteer fundraising for FPV drones is highly effective, significantly augmenting UAF's drone capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NGU units are actively engaging in fundraising for equipment replacement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kryvyi Rih: Military administration reports situation controlled. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• International Engagement: GUR and MFA successfully evacuated Ukrainian citizens from Israel, demonstrating robust international cooperation and capacity for citizen protection abroad. The Coordination Staff for POWs continues to meet with families, indicating strong internal support systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Medical Support: The 47th Mechanized Brigade highlights their operational stabilization point, demonstrating capacity for combat casualty care. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) National Police efforts to identify deceased personnel from RUF transfers highlight ongoing medical and forensic challenges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Morale: Zaporizhzhia OVA and Оперативний ЗСУ share messages on national moments of silence, indicating sustained national unity and remembrance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Kharkiv citizens are holding rallies for POWs, demonstrating continued public engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Some public sentiment expresses frustration with Western support and sanctions, indicating potential morale challenges related to perceived delays in aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Leadership Response: President Zelenskyy's immediate public reaction and condemnation to the kinetic strikes demonstrates strong leadership, aiming to maintain morale and highlight RUF war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes:
  • Effective Public Warning System: UAF Air Force and KCMA continue to provide rapid and accurate threat warnings. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Rapid Emergency Response: Ukrainian emergency services (DSNS) are responding swiftly to fires and providing medical aid to casualties, releasing timely visual evidence of their efforts and confirming rescues of civilians, including children and a pregnant woman. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Naval Situation Monitoring: UAF Naval Forces maintain a vigilant watch on maritime activities, providing up-to-date intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Localized Counter-Offensive: UAF liberated the settlement of Andriyivka (Sumy Oblast), demonstrating tactical initiative and resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF is actively strengthening defenses in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Deep Strikes & Asymmetric Warfare: UAF GUR successfully executed a deep strike on a RUF fuel train in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, impacting logistics. UAF drones continue to successfully strike RUF assets deep inside Russian territory (Smolensk, Bryansk). UAF MiG-29 successfully deployed AASM HAMMER in Kozynka (Belgorod). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) 82nd Airmobile Brigade drone pilots are effectively hunting RUF personnel in Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF has conducted a successful deep strike on a Russian storage facility in Rostov Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • AD Interceptions: UAF AD successfully intercepted 28/47 UAVs and 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles. UAF Air Force reports neutralizing 354/368 aerial targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RUF Personnel Losses: Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlits" reports at least 6483 RUF officers "demobilized" (KIA/WIA/MIA) since Feb 2022. New ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 image provides updated enemy loss figures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • International Citizen Protection: GUR and MFA successfully evacuated 133 Ukrainian citizens from Israel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Reconnaissance Effectiveness: DSHV video illustrates sophisticated reconnaissance capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Combat Medical Support: 47th Mechanized Brigade highlights effective stabilization point operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • SBU Special Operations: Demonstrated continued high-level special forces activity, including effective drone strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Public Leadership Response: President Zelenskyy's immediate public condemnation of the attacks and focus on civilian casualties helps maintain public morale and international narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Volunteer Procurement: Successful large-scale fundraising and procurement of FPV drones by volunteer groups. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Setbacks:
  • Significant Civilian Infrastructure Damage & Increased Casualties: Confirmed damage to a multi-story residential building, a non-residential building, a business center, autos, and a bus stop in Kyiv. Confirmed seven (7) fatalities (6 in Kyiv, 1 in Bila Tserkva) and 31 wounded in Kyiv, including a married couple. Strikes on Ochakiv caused 3 wounded and extensive damage. New confirmed strikes in Bila Tserkva (Greblya Club, hotel, medical clinic, residential, and hospital) and Chernihiv (Lancet strike on village outskirts causing 2 fatalities and 10 wounded, including children) indicate expanded targeting of civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Strategic Infrastructure & Force Generation Impacts: The successful RUF missile strike on the Kremenchuk energy infrastructure and the UAF training ground resulted in significant damage/casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) A confirmed missile fragment hit on the KPI swimming pool indicates continued RUF targeting near military-linked facilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Information Warfare Vulnerability (CRITICAL, WORSENING): The continued amplification by Ukrainian media (e.g., РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, Rybar) of RUF's fabricated "Iran-Israel/US War" narrative, including new kinetic elements (e.g., Trump claiming Iranian nuclear facilities destroyed, satellite imagery of Fordo/Natanz/Isfahan, manipulated NYT articles, fabricated IDF statements, fabricated Israeli attacks, fabricated IRGC statements claiming attacks on all Israeli territory), and now the new claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran," even amidst direct kinetic attacks on Kyiv, remains a severe and worsening self-inflicted wound. This directly undermines Ukraine's information security and its ability to maintain international focus. This is exacerbated by the continued publication of generic "tactical analyses of images" that do not critically assess the source or content, despite receiving direct RUF propaganda or being published in the context of it. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Public sentiment (e.g., from КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno) reflecting frustration with the effectiveness of sanctions and perceived lack of military aid, indicates a potential morale challenge. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NGU Equipment Losses: Fundraising efforts by NGU's "Rubizh" brigade indicate loss of property and equipment, likely due to combat operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Air Defense: Continued urgent need for advanced AD systems, particularly those effective against ballistic missiles (like Iskander and potentially DPRK types) and capable of countering saturation attacks combining multiple munition types. Norway's commitment of NASAMS office opening is a positive step but more is needed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Counter-IO: The persistent amplification of RUF disinformation by Ukrainian media highlights a critical, unaddressed strategic deficiency in counter-information capabilities that is directly harming national security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Force Protection: Urgent need for enhanced force protection for UAF training grounds and assembly areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Energy Infrastructure: Continued need for protection and rapid repair capabilities for energy infrastructure, as evidenced by Zaporizhzhia power outages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Medical: Increased demand for emergency medical services and hospital capacity due to mass casualty events in urban areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Need for improved processes for identification of deceased personnel, given the "terrible condition" of bodies transferred by RUF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Equipment Replacement: Continued need for replacement of lost equipment for frontline units, as evidenced by NGU fundraising. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• NONE.

---

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian (CRITICAL ESCALATION - Direct Kinetic Fabrication, Intensified Dehumanization, Continued Global Diversion, Atrocity Fabrications, New Kinetic Event Fabrications, Inflated UAF Losses, Moldova Destabilization, Historical Pretext for Invasion, Directly Implicating Ukraine in Fabricated Global Conflicts, Use of Manipulated Media, Internal Control Emphasis, Projecting Diplomatic Authority in Fabricated Crisis, Incentivizing Foreign Recruitment, New False-Flag Assassination Claims, New Claims of Internal Ukrainian Opposition, New Threats against EU, Focus on Internal Military-Political Work):**

  • Immediate Kinetic Fabrication & Misattribution: RUF milbloggers are immediately claiming "Iskander" strikes on Kyiv and specific targets like KPI. They are also actively misattributing damage to residential buildings as UAF AD failures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF milbloggers are releasing "frontline summaries" with claims of UAF equipment destruction and successful strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New Rybar photo features a "Victory Narrative" banner. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New WarGonzo photo claims "Rostec began supplying the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation with the newest guided missiles." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New video claims "Gerans" (Shaheds) actively worked against targets in Kyiv, Chernihiv, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Poltava, Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New video provides a "chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine 22-23 June 2025." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New video shows damaged Kyiv building aftermath, with commentary mocking "bombing Donbas." (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). New video highlights the 'Bars-Sarmat' Center for Special Purpose, showcasing UAV manufacturing and combat footage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New photo claims a strike on a transformer substation in Ashdod, Israel. (LOW CONFIDENCE). New videos and photos show various explosions and smoke plumes in urban areas, attributed to "Iran attacks Israel." (LOW CONFIDENCE). New videos claim "Tel Aviv also hit" and "Israel now," perpetuating fabricated Israel attacks. (LOW CONFIDENCE). New video claims a "hole from GBU-57" strike on a "nuclear facility in Fordo." (LOW CONFIDENCE). New message claims "power outages in southern Israel after strike on Israeli electric company." (LOW CONFIDENCE). New video claims RUF forces are continuing offensive operations, "breaking through enemy defenses in the Krasnoarmeysk area." (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). New video claims "camouflage did not save UAF relay stations and dugouts from drone strikes." (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). New video claims "damage to a UAF position in Shevchenko by drone operators of the 57th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade." (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). New video from Russian sources claims liberation of a settlement in Zaporizhzhia, stating it's the fourth this month and that UAF forces are fleeing. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified by UAF).
  • Intensified Dehumanization & Mockery: RUF channels are using highly inflammatory language ("Kyiv is getting better," "wails of Khokhols") immediately after civilian impacts. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posting "fluffy cuteness" may be new psychological operations. New Alex Parker Returns message mocks a Ukrainian musician. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС photo shows a deceased individual with caption implying bad luck. (LOW CONFIDENCE). New Alex Parker Returns photo with caption "This is how you do good to people after this" alongside a picture of a deceased person. (LOW CONFIDENCE). New Alex Parker Returns video mocking a poet. (LOW CONFIDENCE).
  • Fabrication of Atrocities: TASS is actively disseminating fabricated atrocity claims against UAF ("finished off wounded soldiers"). The Svatove bus stop claim is a likely false-flag. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New RUF milblogger video claims "partisans" liquidated two UAF militants from the 154th Brigade in Kharkiv using a "mined scooter." (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). New BУТУСОВ ПЛЮС message claims a wounded Russian soldier was "shot by his comrades." (LOW CONFIDENCE).
  • Continued Global Diversion (CRITICAL, ESCALATED, NEW CLAIMS, Projecting Diplomatic Role): The overarching "Iran-Israel/US War" fabrication continues, now with RUF state media (TASS) and milbloggers actively creating new fabricated kinetic events, and crucially, using manipulated media. WarGonzo now claims "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran," directly implicating Ukraine. TASS reports Iran will continue peaceful uranium enrichment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New TASS message claims "Putin to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister on June 23." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New TASS message claims "Russia conducting contacts with Americans, including on situation around Iran." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Basurin photo claims "Marco Rubio believes the world has become safer after US strikes on Iran." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New TASS message claims "Israel strikes six airfields in western, eastern, and central Iran, IDF reports." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Alex Parker Returns message amplifies fabricated NYT report: "Iran evacuated equipment and uranium from the Fordo nuclear facility." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Colonelcassad message reports Iran will continue uranium enrichment, citing CNN sources. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Операция Z message amplifies a fabricated IDF statement: "Israeli aviation again strikes military infrastructure in Iran." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Два майора video purports to show "Anti-war protests began in New York after US strikes on Iran." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New TASS message cites NYT stating "US does not know where Iran moved its uranium reserves." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Alex Parker Returns message amplifies this, mocking "bloody Netanyahu." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Басурин о главном message warns of oil price spike if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Alex Parker Returns photo "Iron Dome. Results." (LOW CONFIDENCE). New Alex Parker Returns video features a man speaking about "children of US citizens living and dying on the front lines." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New photo claims Japan's PM may cancel his visit to The Hague for the NATO summit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New video from ASTRA claims "Protests against Trump's decision to strike Iranian nuclear facilities were held in the USA." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New photo titled "How Western countries support Moldovan puppet president Maia Sandu." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New TASS message claims "Iranian parliament plans to pass a bill on suspending cooperation with the IAEA." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Старше Эдды video promoting "Russia invites partners to form a new platform for global growth." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New TASS message claims "USA can deprive Europe of internet." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New TASS message claims "Ben Gurion airport resumes operations from June 23." (LOW CONFIDENCE). New TASS message claims "Iran attacked all Israeli territory with missiles and kamikaze drones," citing IRGC statement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF fabrication).
  • Irrelevant Domestic Content: Russian state-affiliated channels continue to release unrelated domestic news. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New TASS messages on a new business support law and vape fines, and a bear attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New TASS video reports arrests in Moscow for "Alrosa diamond theft." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Новости Москвы photo reports "Anaplasmosis-carrying ticks" spreading. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Новости Москвы video reports a "tiny newborn" in Moscow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New MOBILIZATSIA | Novosti | Srochniki message reports a wounded soldier declaring a hunger strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Север.Реалии reports a journalist from Crimea.Realities being released from prison. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New TASS message reports Russia "resolutely condemns the monstrous terrorist attack in Damascus." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Новости Москвы photo on Moscow weather confirms irrelevant domestic information. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New TASS video reports a man arrested in St. Petersburg for financing an "extremist organization." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Новости Москвы highlights "terraced skyscraper to be built on site of Cinema House." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Mash на Донбассе ad for "electric toothbrushes." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Alex Parker Returns video showing migrants butchering ram in Moscow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Alex Parker Returns video of Mercedes fire in Moscow tunnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New MOBILIZATSIA | Novosti | Srochniki photo of a dangerous criminal being presented to children, promoting patriotic education. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New ASTRA reports on an arrest in Nizhnekamsk for preparing a terrorist attack on a petrochemical complex, accompanied by video of confession. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New TASS message: Yuri Antonov refutes hospitalization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - domestic distraction).
  • Normalizing Occupation: RUF channels like "Операция Z" are attempting to normalize the occupation of Ukrainian cities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New message claims "Ukronazi Biletsky in a recent interview promised to retake Mariupol from Russia." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Dehumanizing Ukraine/UAF: TASS is reporting that Apty Alaudinov is on Ukraine's SBU wanted list. New message "Russia will remove the school course of Ukrainian language and literature from the federal general education program." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New video shows an interview with two individuals discussing their recruitment, likely RUF IO. (LOW CONFIDENCE). New TASS message claims UAF has redeployed foreign mercenaries and women to Yanvarskoye. (LOW CONFIDENCE). New photo claims a "leader of Georgian mercenaries in the SSO of UAF, Vano Nadiradze, left the ranks." (LOW CONFIDENCE). New video claims "Russia is actively forming Ukrainian anti-fascist units." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New photo of items found with Russian military bodies during repatriations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New message from Operatsiya Z reports a mobilized UOC priest detained in Ternopil. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO to show internal division/repression in Ukraine).
    • Exaggerated UAF Losses: RUF channels are disseminating vastly inflated claims of UAF casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Moldova Destabilization: TASS is disseminating narratives from Igor Dodon warning Moldovan leaders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New photo titled "How Western countries support Moldovan puppet president Maia Sandu." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Promoting Military Might and Cohesion: RUF channels continue to push propaganda emphasizing military power. New Colonelcassad videos featuring RUF logistics personnel highlight their "crucial role." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF MoD video showing FPV drones used for logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Два майора message soliciting donations for Pokrovsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Полиция Хабаровского края photo and text confirms Russian passport issuance to a "Tajikistan native." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New video highlights the 'Bars-Sarmat' Center for Special Purpose. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New video shows a heavily modified UAZ vehicle with metal spikes, claimed as protection against FPV drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Colonelcassad video and photo fundraising for "Summer Campaign 2025" and showing mortar shells being marked. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New messages from Филолог в засаде discuss "military-political work in the troops." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Historical Pretext for Invasion: RUF state-media and milblogger channels continue to invoke the 22 June 1941 anniversary. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New Два майора photo shows a monument opening at Brest Fortress on June 21. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New video from Uzbekistan celebrates Soviet Naval Veterans. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • International Diplomatic Disinformation: TASS reports Japan's PM plans to withdraw from the NATO summit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New photo claims Japan's PM may cancel his visit to The Hague for the NATO summit due to US strikes on Iran. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New TASS message claims "Ben Gurion airport resumes operations from June 23." (LOW CONFIDENCE).
    • Internal Criticism of Russian Healthcare: "Север.Реалии" reporting on the deterioration of healthcare in Dno, Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New MOBILIZATSIA | Novosti | Srochniki message on a wounded soldier hunger strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Suppression of Dissent: ASTRA's report of criminal cases against teenage girls. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New photo reports a banner placed in St. Petersburg near a "SVO temple" construction site. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New TASS video reports a man arrested in St. Petersburg for financing an "extremist organization." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Internal Surveillance & Mobilization: Архангел Спецназа promotes "God's Eye" surveillance system. Mobilizatsia | Novosti | Srochniki shares info on a bot. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New Архангел Спецназа photo claims "One of the traitors who went over to the AFU was handed over as part of an exchange...to Russia." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

• Ukrainian:

  • CRITICAL VULNERABILITY: Amplification of RUF Disinformation (SELF-INFLICTED WOUND, WORSENING): Prominent Ukrainian media (e.g., РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, Rybar) continues to widely amplify RUF's dangerous "Iran-Israel/US War" fabrications, including new kinetic elements, and now the claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran," even as Ukraine faces direct missile attacks. This is a severe and persistent failure in information security. This is worsened by the publication of generic "tactical analyses of image" content without critical source assessment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New messages reflecting frustration with international support and the ineffectiveness of sanctions indicate that this information vulnerability is also impacting public sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Public Safety Messaging: UAF Air Force, KCMA, DSNS, and Zaporizhzhia OVA continue to provide essential public safety warnings and report on strike consequences. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 and Оперативний ЗСУ videos show immediate aftermath and rescue operations in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New video shows President Zelenskyy reacting to the night attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New РБК-Україна reports 7 fatalities (6 Kyiv, 1 Bila Tserkva). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New statement confirms 22 wounded in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New video confirms damage to a bus stop in Sviatoshynskyi District. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New photo confirms missile fragments damaged KPI sports complex. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New photo shows a policeman in uniform. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New reports confirm 31 wounded in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New photos show ongoing search and rescue efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Operational Updates: UAF Naval Forces and General Staff are providing timely updates. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The Office of the General Prosecutor is documenting war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 image provides updated enemy loss figures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New message from Tsaplienko reports fire in Rostov Oblast on territory of Rosrezerv's "Atlas" combine after impacts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Offensive Messaging: DeepState and Operativny ZSU highlight successful UAF deep strikes and local counter-offensives. New Оперативний ЗСУ video shows 82nd Airmobile Brigade drone hunting RUF personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New video featuring a captured RUF volunteer highlights low RUF morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Call for Aid: STERNENKO's message calling for aid to the military. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 message highlights Norway's $400M drone aid and NASAMS office opening. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO reports successful acquisition of FPV drones through public fundraising. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New photo shows NGU "Rubizh" brigade fundraising for equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • International Citizen Protection: Coordination Staff for POWs reporting on GUR/MFA evacuation from Israel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New photos show support for POW families. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • National Unity/Remembrance: Zaporizhzhia OVA and Оперативний ЗСU share messages on moments of silence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New photos show a rally in Kharkiv in support of missing/captured defenders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Military Professionalism: DSHV and 47th Mech Brig share videos highlighting training, operational effectiveness. New 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) video shows SBU Special Operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New photos show 23rd Separate Mechanized Brigade conducting a psychological obstacle course. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Defensive Readiness: New STERNENKO video showing anti-tank obstacles in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Humanitarian Impact: РБК-Україна reporting on a married couple among fatalities in Kyiv and children wounded in Chernihiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New video reports "RF usually transfers bodies of dead in terrible condition," citing National Police. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) A civilian's distress about inadequate medical care for her son in the military highlights potential domestic welfare concerns. (LOW CONFIDENCE).
  • Diplomatic Activity: New РБК-Україна photo claims President Zelenskyy announced a visit to Britain. (LOW CONFIDENCE). New photo indicates President Zelenskyy's statement accusing Russia of using DPRK ballistic missiles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian: Civilian morale in Kyiv and surrounding oblasts (now including Bila Tserkva and Chernihiv) is under severe strain due to repeated and now confirmed destructive multi-domain air attacks, leading to increased casualties (now 7 confirmed fatalities, 31 wounded, including a married couple and children) and property destruction, and now including children among the wounded. The direct targeting of residential areas, hospitals, and business centers increases fear and anxiety. The continued amplification of RUF's fabricated "global war" and the new direct implication of Ukraine by some Ukrainian media risks sowing confusion, distrust, and undermining national resolve. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The call for aid to the military by STERNENKO reflects an ongoing need for support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The confirmed hit on KPI, a prominent educational institution, will likely further impact public sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) President Zelenskyy's immediate, strong public condemnation of the civilian strikes will likely help maintain public morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Kharkiv rally for POWs demonstrates continued public engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Frustration regarding the perceived effectiveness of sanctions and the pace of weapons deliveries indicates a potential erosion of morale related to international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) A civilian's distress about inadequate medical care for her son in the military highlights potential domestic welfare concerns. (LOW CONFIDENCE).
• Russian: Domestic sentiment continues to be manipulated by the pervasive "global war" narrative, now reinforced by immediate (and often fabricated) claims of successful strikes in Ukraine, attempts to project normalcy in occupied territories, and new fabricated atrocity claims against UAF (e.g., mined scooter false-flag), and the creation of entirely new fabricated kinetic events in the "global conflict," now directly involving Ukraine. The vastly inflated UAF casualty claims from Marochko are designed to boost domestic morale, as are the internal military propaganda videos and the use of "historical pretext" for invasion (e.g., Brest Fortress monument). Domestic news unrelated to the war also aims to foster a sense of normalcy and distract, as does the promotion of internal surveillance. The arrest of a Belgorod official could lead to some internal discontent or questioning. The promotion of foreign recruitment and citizenship incentives aims to maintain force numbers and domestic support. The report of a wounded soldier's hunger strike indicates potential underlying issues with military welfare that could impact morale if widely known or amplified. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Internal dissent, as evidenced by the St. Petersburg "SVO temple" banner, suggests cracks in the unified narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Internal discussion about "military-political work" and "moral-psychological state" from Филолог в засаде suggests RUF recognizes morale issues and is attempting to address them through indoctrination. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New IO regarding a mobilized UOC priest in Ternopil attempts to sow doubt about Ukrainian mobilization and religious freedom. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Global Diversion (CRITICAL, Escalated): RUF's "Iran-Israel/US War" fabrication continues to consume international attention, now actively including fabricated kinetic events and attributed diplomatic statements to make it appear more real (e.g., TASS on Hormuz, Операция Z on Fordo, TASS on food security impacts, TASS citing NYT on B-2 operations, fabricated IDF statements, fabricated Marco Rubio quote, fabricated anti-war protests in NYC, fabricated Israeli attacks), and most critically, directly implicating Ukraine with false claims of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran." This severely hinders Ukraine's diplomatic efforts to maintain focus on the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports Japan's PM pulling out of NATO summit, intended to portray weakening international unity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New TASS messages claiming Putin meeting Iranian FM and Russia having contacts with the US on Iran are designed to elevate Russia's perceived diplomatic role in this fabricated crisis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New TASS message claims "Iranian parliament plans to pass a bill on suspending cooperation with the IAEA due to its politicized position," indicating RUF attempts to portray Iran as a victim of Western pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New TASS message claims "USA can deprive Europe of internet because the EU is almost entirely dependent on American cloud services," a new IO line designed to sow mistrust between US and EU and highlight EU vulnerabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Ukrainian Diplomacy: Ukraine's efforts to secure support are undermined by the effectiveness of RUF's global diversion, particularly when false narratives are amplified by Ukrainian media itself. GUR/MFA evacuation from Israel demonstrates continued capacity for international diplomatic operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Zelenskyy's announcement of Norway's drone aid and NASAMS office opening is a positive diplomatic development, countering the RUF narrative of weakening support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New РБК-Україна photo claims President Zelenskyy announced a visit to Britain. (LOW CONFIDENCE). New photo indicates President Zelenskyy's statement accusing Russia of using DPRK ballistic missiles in the Kyiv attack, raising the stakes on international weapons transfers and potentially garnering further international condemnation of RUF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Public sentiment (KіберБорошно) regarding the ineffectiveness of sanctions and lack of weapons suggests a diplomatic constraint. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RUF Diplomatic Efforts: RUF claims it will present a report on "crimes of UAF against civilians in Kherson Oblast" to the UN Security Council and OSCE. The recent TASS message regarding Moldova indicates RUF's efforts to influence regional politics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF's new claims of high-level diplomatic engagement regarding the fabricated Iran conflict (Putin meeting Iranian FM, contacts with US) are a highly significant, escalating development in their IO strategy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New Старше Эдды video promoting "Russia invites partners to form a new platform for global growth" reinforces the narrative of Russia as a global economic leader. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Assessing the real-world impact of Russia's extreme IO fabrications, specifically the "US-Iran War" narrative, and the new claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran," and the use of manipulated media (e.g., NYT). Monitor international diplomatic and media channels for any traction or confusion caused by this narrative that could impact policy or support for Ukraine. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT on diplomatic channels)

---

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Major Multi-Axis Ground Offensive (Sumy/Kharkiv/Donetsk) with Intensified, Coordinated Ballistic Missile (including DPRK), Cruise Missile, and UAV (including Lancet) Strikes on Kyiv and Strategic Targets, and Hyper-Aggressive, Multi-Layered Global IO Diversion with Fabricated Kinetic Events/Diplomatic Resolutions, Atrocity Claims, and Direct Implication of Ukraine in Fabricated Global Conflicts, bolstered by Manipulated Media and Fabricated Diplomatic Engagements (ESCALATED): RUF will persist with high-intensity ground assaults on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk/Mirnohrad, Siversk), supported by KABs and drones. RUF will launch a major ground offensive on the Sumy axis, possibly coordinated with intensified pressure on the Kharkiv axis, leveraging the 52,000 troop concentration and the 22 JUN historical pretext. This will be supported by overwhelming air, KAB, and missile strikes to soften UAF defenses. RUF will intensify its coordinated multi-domain air attacks on Kyiv and other major urban centers (e.g., Bila Tserkva, Chernihiv), combining ballistic missile launches (from Bryansk/Kursk, and potentially new vectors from Sumy direction, potentially including DPRK ballistic missiles) with mass Shahed drone waves and successive cruise missile attacks, aiming to saturate UAF AD and strike high-value military and critical infrastructure targets (including UAF training grounds, KPI pool, hospitals), and continued strikes on civilian areas (residential, hotels, clinics, business centers) to maximize psychological impact. This will include rapid re-engagement and successive waves, likely within hours of each other. The direct targeting of residential areas, immediate mockery by RUF IO channels, and fabrication of UAF atrocities (including new "mined scooter" false-flag claims and claims of internal RUF atrocities) indicate that future attacks will increasingly target civilian population centers and infrastructure directly, rather than solely military targets, and be accompanied by further aggressive pretexts. This will be centrally supported by a further, unprecedented escalation of the fabricated "Iran-Israel/US War" narrative, including the use of state media to report new, fabricated kinetic events and attributed diplomatic statements (e.g., Fordo, Hormuz, food security impacts, Putin meeting Iranian FM, Russia in contact with US on Iran, fabricated Ashdod strike, fabricated Israeli attacks, fabricated IRGC statements claiming attacks on all Israeli territory), use of manipulated media (e.g., fabricated NYT articles, fabricated IDF statements, fabricated Western quotes), and the direct, fabricated implication of Ukraine through claims of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran." Fabricated atrocity claims against UAF will increase, along with exaggerated UAF casualty figures. Domestic narrative control will remain a high priority, utilizing global crisis framing to rally support and justify actions in occupied territories and normalize occupation. RUF will continue to use IO to destabilize Moldova and other bordering nations and undermine international support for Ukraine (e.g., Japan/NATO, US-EU relations). RUF will leverage internal surveillance and mobilization efforts to reinforce domestic control, including incentivizing foreign recruitment. RUF will also increase its focus on internal military-political work and promote narratives of internal Ukrainian opposition supporting RUF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Major Multi-Axis Offensive (Sumy/Kharkiv/Donetsk) Coordinated with a Direct Mass Ballistic Missile (including DPRK) and Cruise Missile Attack on Kyiv and/or State-Sponsored Terrorist Attack in NATO/EU Capital Attributed to "Global Conflict Actors" or "Ukrainian Saboteurs": RUF launches a major, synchronized offensive operation across multiple axes (Sumy, Kharkiv, and intensified Pokrovsk/Siversk), leveraging the 52,000 troop concentration and overwhelming air/missile support, aimed for a decisive operational breakthrough. This is preceded or accompanied by a direct, high-casualty mass ballistic missile (including DPRK types) and cruise missile attack on Kyiv, targeting government districts or critical infrastructure, aimed at maximizing terror and disruption, consistent with the "warm-up" and "renovation" messaging and the current kinetic strikes, potentially including the use of cluster munitions on civilian areas. Concurrently, RUF sponsors or executes a high-profile, high-casualty terrorist attack in a European capital, attributing it to "Ukrainian extremists," "ISIS," or "global conflict actors" or, more specifically, to the fabricated "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran" narrative to provide a direct, false link to Ukraine, to maximize international panic and compel a fragmented, inward-looking international response, creating a window for RUF's strategic gains in Ukraine. This MDCOA is further supported by the current aggressive IO shift regarding "Kyiv Oblast," the explicit dehumanization, the new TASS fabrication about Tehran and the direct claims against UAF, the specific focus on fabricating UAF atrocities (e.g., "mined scooter"), the new fabrication of kinetic events in the "global war" narrative, the new, direct claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran," the use of manipulated media (e.g., NYT), and the new claims of high-level diplomatic engagement regarding the fabricated Iran conflict, and the renewed focus on Moldova/Transnistria. (MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 0-6 hours, starting from 230850Z JUN 25):
  • RUF: Expect continued large-scale Shahed drone, ballistic missile (including potential DPRK types), and cruise missile attacks targeting critical infrastructure and military facilities across Ukraine, including follow-on waves in Kyiv and other central/southern oblasts (Bila Tserkva, Kryvyi Rih, Kharkiv, Poltava, Vasylkiv, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv). Expect immediate follow-on narratives regarding the fabricated "Iran-Israel/US War," specifically expanding on new fabricated kinetic events and utilizing new manipulated media (e.g., Fordo, Hormuz, food security impacts, Putin meeting Iranian FM, Russia in contact with US on Iran, fabricated Ashdod strike, fabricated Israeli attacks, fabricated IRGC statements claiming attacks on all Israeli territory). Expect new narratives of Russia's diplomatic role in this fabricated conflict. Expect increased, aggressive RUF IO, including further direct threats ("renovation") and dehumanization of Ukrainians, likely linked to the ongoing attacks, and new fabricated atrocity claims against UAF (e.g., "mined scooter" false-flag, claims of internal RUF atrocities), along with inflated casualty claims. RUF KAB strikes on Sumy and Donetsk will continue. RUF will likely amplify claims of successful strikes in Kyiv, regardless of actual impact, and try to misattribute damage to UAF AD. RUF will maintain pressure and rhetoric on Moldova/Transnistria and continue to sow disunity among allies (e.g., Japan/NATO, US-EU). RUF will continue to use internal control mechanisms and cultural erasure (Ukrainian language from schools), and promote foreign recruitment. RUF will push narratives of internal Ukrainian opposition supporting Russia.
  • UAF Decision Point: Immediately issue an even more robust and direct public counter-narrative specifically debunking the latest, most egregious RUF fabrications regarding the "Iran-Israel/US War" (e.g., fabricated TASS reports of Trump destroying nuclear facilities, manipulated New York Times articles, and IDF claims, new Fordo/Hormuz claims, food security impacts, fabricated diplomatic engagements, fabricated Israeli attacks, fabricated IRGC statements claiming attacks on all Israeli territory) and especially the new, highly dangerous claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran." Publicly and directly address specific Ukrainian media outlets (e.g., РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, Rybar) that amplified these narratives, demanding immediate corrections and outlining severe consequences for continued amplification of enemy disinformation during wartime. Issue a public warning about RUF's new, aggressive IO (the "warm-up," dehumanization, "renovation," and now the mockery related to Kyiv becoming "prettier" and atrocity fabrications, and the new kinetic fabrications, and the direct implication of Ukraine in the fabricated global war), framing it as a clear signal of intent for future, more severe combined attacks (ballistic, cruise, and UAVs) on Kyiv and other civilian targets. Reinforce civil defense measures and ensure rapid damage assessment teams are deployed.
• Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
  • RUF: Expect launch of major ground offensive on the Sumy axis, possibly with intensification of ground probing and shaping operations on the Kharkiv axes, with increased cross-border shelling, KABs, and drone activity, possibly preparing for a larger offensive. Continued high-intensity pressure on the Pokrovsk direction. Continued targeting of civilian infrastructure (now with Bila Tserkva and Chernihiv confirmed impacts, including hospitals, business centers) and UAF force generation assets (training grounds, barracks, KPI pool). The 22 JUN 1941 historical narrative will continue to be reinforced, potentially with more aggressive rhetoric targeting Kyiv. RUF will continue to prioritize targeting UAF drone control and logistics. Continued IO pressure on Moldova and undermining of international unity.
  • UAF Decision Point: Intensify diplomatic efforts with European partners and the US to share granular intelligence on RUF's escalating global IO campaign (especially new kinetic fabrications and media manipulation, the direct implication of Ukraine in the fabricated global conflict, and fabricated diplomatic engagements), coordinating pre-emptive responses. Emphasize the new, direct threats against Ukrainian civilians, the extreme dehumanization, and the fabrication of UAF atrocities (e.g., "mined scooter") as precursors to war crimes. Conduct comprehensive BDA on all Kyiv, Bila Tserkva, and Chernihiv impacts to inform future AD strategies. Ensure maritime forces are prepared for potential escalations in the Black Sea. Consolidate gains and prepare for further defensive operations on the Sumy/Kharkiv axes. Continue to highlight military professionalism and combat readiness through media. Address public concerns regarding the pace of Western aid and sanctions.

---

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Activate a dedicated, 24/7, multi-agency task force for real-time forensic analysis and aggressive, global debunking of Russia's extreme IO fabrications. Focus on exposing the "Iran-Israel/US War" narrative, particularly new elements like fabricated kinetic events (e.g., TASS report of Trump claiming destruction of nuclear facilities, manipulated New York Times articles, and IDF claims, new Fordo/Hormuz claims, and food security impacts, fabricated Israeli attacks, fabricated IRGC statements claiming attacks on all Israeli territory), the use of manipulated media (e.g., fabricated NYT articles, fabricated Ashdod strike), fabricated atrocity claims against UAF (e.g., "finishing off wounded," Svatove bus stop, "mined scooter" in Kharkiv, fabricated internal RUF atrocities), the inflated UAF casualty claims from Marochko, and especially the new, aggressive direct threats ("warm-up," "renovation," "Kyiv is getting prettier") and dehumanization ("Khokhols") from RUF milbloggers, linking them directly to RUF's escalating kinetic operations and confirmed civilian casualties, and to the 22 JUN 1941 historical pretext. CRITICALLY, this task force must immediately and aggressively debunk the new claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran," highlighting it as a transparent attempt to directly implicate Ukraine in RUF's fabricated global conflict. Identify specific RUF IO cells and their external networks globally to disrupt dissemination.
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Surge all-source ISR to the Sumy and Kharkiv axes to provide immediate warning of a major RUF ground offensive. This is the #1 intelligence priority.
3. HIGH: Increase all-source ISR on Bryansk, Kursk, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts for early warning of any large-scale RUF ground movements, ballistic missile/cruise missile/UAV launch preparations, or build-ups that might indicate a major offensive. Prioritize SIGINT for RUF C2 related to drone, cruise missile, ballistic missile (including DPRK types), and KAB operations and targeting of UAF drone assets and UAF training grounds.
4. HIGH: Conduct immediate, detailed BDA on all confirmed impacts in Kyiv, particularly in Shevchenkivskyi, Sviatoshyn, and Podilskyi Districts, and now in Bila Tserkva and Chernihiv, to identify munition types, confirm specific targets (residential vs. military/industrial, hotel/clinic/hospital/business center vs. military), and refine AD response and counter-targeting. This must include forensic analysis of fragments to confirm Iskander use, Lancet use, and potential DPRK ballistic missile use. Conduct immediate BDA of the Kremenchuk and UAF training ground strikes to identify RUF targeting patterns, munition types, and intelligence vulnerabilities to inform AD and force protection posture.
5. HIGH: Conduct immediate BDA on the Rostov Oblast "Atlas" combine strike, confirming munitions used and extent of damage to RUF logistics/storage capabilities.
6. MEDIUM: Verify RUF claims of successful UAF drone unit targeting or specific strikes on military assets (e.g., Zhuliany Patriot site, Antonov plant).
7. MEDIUM: Monitor RUF's rhetoric and any observable force movements concerning Moldova and Transnistria for potential escalations or hybrid actions.
8. MEDIUM: Verify RUF claims of breakthroughs toward Siversk and Mirnohrad and the stability of UAF defensive lines, and claims of UAF armored vehicle destruction near Novosergievka and UAF retreat near LPR, and drone strikes on UAF logistics near Krasnoarmeysk, and the new RUF MoD claim of T-80BVM tank destroying UAF stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Also verify RUF milblogger claim of "partisans" using a "mined scooter" to liquidate UAF personnel in Kharkiv, assessing if this is a false-flag or targeted assassination. Verify RUF claims of mortar fire and drone strikes on UAF positions in Krasnoarmeysk area and Shevchenko. Verify RUF claims of liberation of settlement in Zaporizhzhia.
9. LOW: Assess the impact of the Belgorod Deputy Governor's arrest on RUF internal control and local administration.
10. LOW: Verify Pushilin's claim of RUF liberating all settlements in DNR where UAF counter-attacked in 2023, and his new claim of UAF redeploying reserves west of Krasnoarmeysk.
11. LOW: Verify TASS claim of FAB destroying UAF command post on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.
12. LOW: Verify TASS claim of foreign mercenaries and women redeployed to Yanvarskoye.
13. LOW: Verify Poddubny claim of Georgian mercenary leader "Vano Nadiradze" leaving UAF SSO ranks.
14. LOW: Assess the extent and impact of internal Russian dissent against the war (e.g., St. Petersburg "SVO temple" banner).
15. LOW: Monitor RUF's internal "military-political work" for insights into morale, indoctrination, and potential vulnerabilities.

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

1. URGENT: Reinforce AD assets, especially anti-ballistic (like Patriot/SAMP-T, and systems effective against DPRK missiles), anti-cruise missile, and counter-UAV capabilities, in all major cities and vulnerable strategic areas across Ukraine, including military objects/training grounds, particularly in areas susceptible to Iskander, Lancet, and DPRK missile strikes and KABs, and in anticipation of a potential saturation attack of up to 250 drones and ballistic/cruise missiles. Accelerate the delivery and integration of new AD systems. Prioritize additional mobile AD units for Kyiv and its approaches to counter drone, cruise missile, and ballistic missile penetration, given RUF's explicit "warm-up" and "renovation" threats and specific targeting of civilian areas. Re-posture and reinforce AD assets, particularly anti-ballistic/hypersonic missile and counter-KAB systems, to the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Poltava axes in anticipation of strikes supporting the imminent ground offensive and further targeting of strategic infrastructure.
2. HIGH: Implement immediate damage assessment and consequence management for impacts in Kyiv Oblast, Bila Tserkva, and Chernihiv, ensuring rapid repair of damaged infrastructure and support for affected civilians. Prioritize structural assessment of the affected multi-story residential building in Shevchenkivskyi District given confirmed fatalities.
3. URGENT/CRITICAL: Implement a nationwide review and upgrade of force protection protocols for all UAF training grounds, assembly areas, and critical infrastructure, emphasizing dispersion, camouflage, and deception, following the confirmed strike on a UAF training ground and the confirmed hit on KPI.
4. MEDIUM: Disperse and protect critical infrastructure in Bila Tserkva, Kryvyi Rih, Kharkiv, Poltava, Vasylkiv, Zhytomyr, and Dnipropetrovsk, preparing for anticipated drone, cruise missile, and ballistic missile attacks.
5. URGENT: Disseminate updated force protection guidance for civilians and first responders addressing the threat of cluster-type munitions with anti-personnel fragmentation.
6. MEDIUM: Integrate and disseminate best practices for anti-drone vehicle modifications based on RUF adaptations, and develop specific countermeasures against such tactics.

6.3. Ground Forces:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Elevate readiness to maximum alert on the Sumy, Kharkiv, and northern Kyiv axes, particularly in response to KAB launches and increased RUF IO directly targeting Kyiv Oblast and implying large-scale escalation. Ensure strategic reserves are postured for rapid deployment to counter a large-scale RUF ground assault. Fully leverage newly constructed fortifications.
2. URGENT: Reinforce forward defensive positions and strategic reserves on the Pokrovsk direction (Donetsk Oblast) to counter persistent RUF assaults and prevent breakthroughs. Continue to reinforce defensive positions around Pokrovsk, Mirnohrad, and Siversk.
3. HIGH: Review and adapt UAF drone operations to counter RUF's demonstrated capability to target UAF drone control points. Enhance concealment, mobility, and redundancy for drone crews and equipment. Accelerate fielding of counter-drone EW systems to frontline units.
4. MEDIUM: Analyze RUF's adaptation of FPV drones for logistics and develop countermeasures to disrupt this supply chain.
5. MEDIUM: Prioritize procurement and distribution of equipment needed by frontline units, leveraging civilian fundraising networks, and streamlining official procurement processes.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch an immediate, aggressive, and sustained, multi-domain (social media, traditional media, diplomatic channels) counter-IO campaign specifically targeting RUF's increasingly dangerous "Iran-Israel/US War" fabrication, its fabricated diplomatic statements and resolutions, attributed quotes, false operational details, and the new, highly inflammatory "regime change" narratives, including the use of manipulated media. Crucially, this campaign must expose and directly respond to RUF's new, explicit threats against Ukrainian civilians ("warm-up," "renovation"), the extreme dehumanization ("Khokhols," "Kyiv is getting prettier"), especially the new, fabricated atrocity claims against UAF ("finishing off wounded," Svatove bus stop, "mined scooter" in Kharkiv, fabricated internal RUF atrocities), the vastly inflated UAF casualty claims, and the new, direct, and fabricated claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran," linking them directly to RUF's escalating kinetic operations and confirmed civilian casualties, and to the 22 JUN 1941 historical pretext. This campaign must:
   • Directly name and shame Ukrainian media outlets (e.g., РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, Rybar) that are amplifying RUF disinformation, providing immediate, clear, and actionable guidance on ethical reporting during wartime and the severe consequences of aiding enemy propaganda. This requires direct intervention from the highest levels of government.
   • Forensically debunk the latest, most kinetic and diplomatic fabrications (e.g., TASS report of Trump claiming destruction of nuclear facilities, fabricated Trump "regime change" quote, manipulated NYT articles, TASS reports of IDF recording missile launches, Fordo/Hormuz claims, food security impacts, fabricated Putin/Iranian FM meeting, fabricated Russia/US contacts on Iran, fabricated IDF statements, fabricated Marco Rubio quotes, fabricated anti-war protests in NYC, fabricated Ashdod strike, fabricated Israeli attacks, fabricated IRGC statements claiming attacks on all Israeli territory), providing clear evidence of their falsehood.
   • Frame Russia's actions as a deliberate, desperate attempt to create global chaos and divert attention from its war crimes and failures in Ukraine, directly linking this to Zelenskyy's warning about RUF preparing operations in Europe, the 22 JUN 1941 historical pretext, and the new aggressive rhetoric targeting Kyiv Oblast, especially the "warm-up" threat, "renovation" mockery, and dehumanization.
2. URGENT: Intensify diplomatic engagement with key international partners, particularly the US, EU, and NATO members, to share granular intelligence on RUF's escalating global IO campaign and its potential for false-flag operations or further escalation, explicitly highlighting the "regime change" elements, the use of media manipulation, the fabrication of UAF atrocities, the new, direct threats against Ukrainian civilians and the extreme dehumanization, and the new, fabricated claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran," and the new fabrication of diplomatic engagements. Coordinate a unified international response to publicly denounce and debunk RUF's fabrications and warn of their escalatory intent. Address and counter RUF attempts to sow discord between US and EU (e.g., "US can deprive Europe of internet").
3. HIGH: Develop and disseminate clear, concise public messages for civilians in Kyiv and other threatened cities on what the RUF "warm-up" and "renovation" messages mean, emphasizing that they are psychological operations designed to instill fear, and reinforcing UAF's commitment to defense. Publicly highlight damage to civilian infrastructure (e.g., Shevchenkivskyi residential building, Sviatoshyn Metro, bus stop, Bila Tserkva hotel/clinic/residential/hospital, Chernihiv village outskirts, Solomyanskyi business center) as direct evidence of RUF war crimes and intent to terrorize, emphasizing the confirmed fatalities and wounded. Publicly confirm the hit on the KPI swimming pool as evidence of RUF targeting urban infrastructure.
4. MEDIUM: Publicly refute RUF's false casualty figures, providing verified UAF casualty data or explaining the severe methodological flaws in RUF's propaganda, to maintain public trust and counter demoralization efforts.
5. URGENT: Proactively message UAF successes, particularly the liberation of Andriyivka and successful deep strikes on RUF logistics and targets within Russia (e.g., Rostov "Atlas" combine), to counter the RUF narrative of inevitable victory and demonstrate UAF's continued capability and resolve.
6. MEDIUM: Leverage UAF unit media (e.g., DSHV, 47th Mech Brig, SBU, 82nd Airmobile Brigade, Patrol Police, NGU) to consistently demonstrate professionalism, training, and care for personnel to counter RUF dehumanization and demoralization efforts. Highlight international support for UAF capabilities (e.g., Norway drone aid, NASAMS office, volunteer procurement). Address and alleviate public frustration regarding international support.
7. MEDIUM: Counter RUF narratives aimed at normalizing occupation (e.g., Mariupol) by emphasizing continued UAF commitment to liberation.
8. MEDIUM: Actively expose and counter RUF's efforts to incentivize foreign recruitment by highlighting the realities of RUF service and high casualty rates.
9. MEDIUM: Publicly address humanitarian concerns for soldiers, including medical care and identification of deceased personnel, to maintain trust and morale.

END OF REPORT