Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Kyiv Oblast:
  • Kyiv City: Confirmed six (6) fatalities in Kyiv as a result of the night attack. Previously, 5 fatalities (4 city, 1 oblast) were reported, now updated by KCMA and DSNS. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Shevchenkivskyi District: Confirmed multi-story residential building fire and significant structural damage. Death toll increased to six (6) confirmed fatalities from this location. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New video footage from Ukrainian sources (РБК-Україна, Офіс Генерального прокурора) shows extensive damage, rescue operations, and destroyed vehicles, consistent with a direct impact on a civilian structure. RUF sources (Операция Z, "Военкоры Русской Весны") are amplifying footage of fires and destruction in Kyiv, confirming the kinetic event, and attempting to misattribute damage to UAF AD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New video from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shows aerial view of damaged multi-story building, rescue operations with heavy machinery. New video from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shows survivor accounts from destroyed 5-story building. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New video from Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 confirms 5 fatalities and 20 wounded, showing active rescue operations from damaged multi-story building, including rescue of civilians and a dog. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New photos from РБК-Україна confirm a married couple among the Kyiv fatalities, increasing the human impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New video from Оперативний ЗСУ shows extensive damage to a bus stop in Sviatoshynskyi District, consistent with debris impacts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Sviatoshyn District: Confirmed three (3) casualties due to falling debris, auto and bus stop fires. One exit from Sviatoshyn metro station temporarily closed. Public transport routes partially altered. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Podilskyi District: Confirmed fire in a non-residential building. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • KPI (Kyiv Polytechnic Institute) im. Ihor Sikorskyi: UAF sources (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) now confirm "fragments of a Russian missile" hit the KPI swimming pool, causing serious damage. This corroborates previous RUF claims of a strike on KPI, though the target (swimming pool vs. main building) and munition (fragments vs. direct hit) differ from initial RUF claims of a direct Iskander strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kyiv Oblast (Bila Tserkva): Confirmed multiple impacts, damaging the Greblya Club complex, a hotel, a medical clinic, and residential buildings with civilians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kyiv Oblast (General): Head of Kyiv OVA, Mykola Kalashnyk, reports three districts in Kyiv Oblast affected. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Zhytomyr Oblast: Threat of enemy Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) declared at 230127Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kharkiv Oblast: Air Force of Ukraine reports launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) by enemy tactical aviation. RUF forces captured Petrovske (Kharkiv Oblast). Kharkiv OVA Head, Oleh Syniehubov, reports 4 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes over the past day. New threat of enemy UAVs declared for Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Donetsk Oblast: Air Force of Ukraine reports launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) by enemy tactical aviation. RUF forces achieved confirmed tactical gains, capturing Perebudova (Donetsk). RUF sources claim a FAB strike on a UAF stronghold in the Yalta area (Donetsk Oblast). (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim with visual evidence). Poddubny claims drone strikes on UAF logistics and personnel near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, with visual evidence, but requiring UAF verification). New RUF MoD video claims a T-80BVM tank obliterated a UAF stronghold in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, visual evidence, but unverified target and BDA). New UAF video from Оперативний ЗСУ shows 82nd Airmobile Brigade drone hunting "motor-katsaps" (RUF personnel on motorcycles) in Donetsk Oblast, indicating continued UAF offensive drone operations against RUF personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district): Air Force of Ukraine reports threat of enemy aerial weapons employment. Nikopolshchyna targeted again by RUF FPV-drones and shelling, specifically Myrivska and Marhanetska communities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Zaporizhzhia Direction: Zaporizhzhia OVA reports partial restoration of electricity to settlements previously de-energized due to enemy attack in Zaporizhzhia district. This confirms previous reports of RUF strikes in the area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Zaporizhzhia OVA shares a video of a moment of silence for fallen defenders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Sumy Oblast: President Zelenskyy's confirmation of a 52,000-strong RUF force concentration on the Sumy axis validates previous intelligence of a significant offensive buildup. UAF has conducted a successful localized counter-offensive, liberating the settlement of Andriyivka (Sumy Oblast) and stabilizing the flank. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF sources are now providing detailed "frontline summaries" for the Sumy direction, indicating continued RUF focus. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New video from STERNENKO shows defensive preparations and anti-tank obstacles in Sumy Oblast, indicating UAF readiness for the expected RUF offensive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Mykolaiv Oblast (Ochakiv): Two Kh-59/69 Guided Aerial Missiles (KABs) struck Ochakiv, wounding three people. New photos from Сили оборони Півдня України confirm two aviation missiles struck Ochakiv, wounding 3, and damaging 2 multi-story buildings, 22 private homes, power lines, and civilian cars. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Chernihiv Oblast: Unspecified "Snovska hromada village" outskirts hit by Lancet UAV, resulting in two (2) fatalities and ten (10) wounded. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна reports "Russia hit Chernihiv Oblast with Lancet: two killed, children among wounded." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RUF Internal (Smolensk, Bryansk, Rostov, Volgograd, Astrakhan, Belgorod): UAF drones continue to successfully strike RUF assets deep inside Russian territory (Smolensk, Bryansk). RUF MoD and RUF milbloggers ("Дневник Десантника🇷🇺") claim 23 UAVs intercepted over Rostov, Volgograd, and Astrakhan Oblasts. Belgorod Oblast Deputy Governor arrested. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Situation controlled as of 230635Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Overall: RUF continues a multi-vector, multi-munition kinetic attack, with Kyiv as the primary target for missile/UAV strikes, resulting in significant damage to residential and non-residential civilian infrastructure and increased casualties across Kyiv City and Oblast, now including Bila Tserkva. The concurrent UAV threat in Zhytomyr and KAB strikes in Kharkiv/Donetsk/Mykolaiv/Dnipropetrovsk indicate continued saturation attempts and pressure across multiple axes. RUF ground forces continue attritional assaults in Donetsk and Kharkiv, securing minor gains, while a significant force concentration looms on the Sumy axis. A new Lancet strike in Chernihiv Oblast causing civilian casualties indicates a continued, broad targeting of civilian areas. RUF is demonstrating logistical sustainment for frontline operations in Kherson direction and for transportation of heavy equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

• Night conditions continue to complicate UAF Air Defense (AD) visual identification of incoming threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF):
  • Air Defense (AD): Engaged against incoming cruise missiles and UAVs. Air raid alerts were active and terminated. UAF AD successfully intercepted 28/47 UAVs and 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles during overnight attacks, but RUF volume and multi-vector attacks continue to pose a saturation challenge, resulting in impacts. Air Force of Ukraine reports 354/368 aerial targets neutralized. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Air Force: Providing timely warnings of KAB launches on Kharkiv and Donetsk, and aerial weapons threat for Dnipropetrovsk. A UAF MiG-29 successfully deployed AASM HAMMER on RUF targets in Kozynka (Belgorod Oblast, Russia), indicating continued offensive air capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kyiv City Military Administration (KCMA): Actively providing real-time updates on impacts, damage, and casualties (Shevchenkivskyi, Sviatoshyn, Podilskyi districts). KCMA now reports six (6) fatalities in Kyiv, including a confirmed married couple. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Emergency Services (DSNS): Responding to fires and providing aid to casualties in Kyiv. DSNS has released initial photos and videos of the aftermath, confirming fatalities and wounded in Kyiv Oblast and showcasing rescue efforts, including rescuing a child and a pregnant woman. DSNS press service head noted the need to clear trees and remove vehicles in Shevchenkivskyi. DSNS also confirms six (6) fatalities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • General Staff of UAF: Providing official updates on the situation as of 08:00, 23 JUN 25, including estimated RUF losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlits" reports at least 6483 RUF officers "demobilized" (KIA/WIA/MIA) since Feb 2022. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Grouping of Forces of Unmanned Systems: Newly established and operational, indicating UAF adaptation to drone warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New information from Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 confirms Norway is providing $400M for drones, and NASAMS producer opened office in Ukraine, as announced by Zelenskyy, indicating continued international support for UAF drone capabilities and AD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration: Reports partial restoration of power in affected areas and holds a moment of silence for fallen defenders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Office of the General Prosecutor: Documenting damage and casualties in Kyiv, confirming six (6) fatalities and over 16 wounded, and providing photographic evidence for war crimes proceedings. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Coordination Staff for POWs: GUR and MFA evacuated 176 people from Israel, including 133 Ukrainian citizens, demonstrating continued state function and international cooperation. New photos from Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими show a meeting with families of 152nd Separate Jaeger Brigade members, indicating ongoing support for POWs and their families. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Reconnaissance (DSHV): DSHV shares video depicting reconnaissance soldiers, their training, equipment (rifles, body armor), and use of thermal optics, emphasizing professionalism and readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Medical Services (47th Mechanized Brigade): Shares video of medical care for wounded soldier, indicating field medical capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • SBU Special Operations (ЦСО «А» СБУ): New video from 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) shows SBU Special Operations Center "A" (ЦСО «А» СБУ) soldiers in tactical gear, indicating continued elite special forces activity and readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • 82nd Airmobile Brigade: New video from Оперативний ЗСУ shows their drone pilots actively targeting RUF personnel in Donetsk Oblast, indicating continued offensive drone operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Russian Forces (RUF):
  • Kinetic Operations:
    • Missile/UAV Strikes: Confirmed impacts in Kyiv resulting in fires and casualties. RUF sources claim Iskander missile strikes on Kyiv, specifically targeting KPI. UAF reports now confirm a hit on the KPI swimming pool. RUF MoD and milbloggers ("Дневник Десантника🇷🇺") claim 23 UAVs intercepted over Rostov, Volgograd, and Astrakhan Oblasts. Massive combined-arms strike on Kremenchuk (Poltava Oblast) targeting strategic energy infrastructure with anti-personnel munitions. Successful precision missile strike on a UAF training ground, causing significant casualties. Persistent KAB, missile, and UAV strikes continue across Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Odesa, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Two Kh-59/69 KABs struck Ochakiv. New Lancet strike confirmed in Chernihiv Oblast resulting in casualties. New WarGonzo photo claims "RUF conducted mass drone attack on Kyiv." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, confirming their involvement.)
    • UAV Operations: Threat declared for Zhytomyr Oblast and now Kharkiv Oblast. FPV drones used against Nikopolshchyna. Lancet used in Chernihiv Oblast. Poddubny claims drone strikes on UAF logistics and personnel near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, with visual evidence, but requiring UAF verification).
    • KAB Launches: Confirmed launches on Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. Aerial weapons threat declared for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RUF sources claim a successful FAB strike on a UAF stronghold in the Yalta area (Donetsk Oblast). (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim with visual evidence).
    • Ground Offensive: RUF forces achieved confirmed tactical gains, capturing Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast) and Petrovske (Kharkiv Oblast). RUF sources, specifically Colonelcassad, are publishing videos purporting to show the destruction of UAF armored vehicles ("Kozak" and BMP-1) near Novosergievka. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, with visual evidence, but requiring UAF verification). Воин DV shares video of artillery strikes on enemy positions in Shakhtyorsk direction. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, visual evidence, but unverified target). Pushilin claims RUF liberated all settlements in DNR where UAF counter-attacked in 2023. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified). New MoD Russia video claims a T-80BVM tank obliterated a UAF stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, visual evidence, but unverified target and BDA).
  • Logistics: New video from Colonelcassad showcases RUF fuel and supply logistics units (callsigns 'Voda' and 'Sever') operating 24/7 in Kherson region, emphasizing their role in refueling equipment and transporting supplies (fuel, food, water) to the front lines. Another video shows a RUF driver 'Neptune' delivering water near Artemovsk (Bakhmut) and surviving an FPV drone attack. A third video features Aleksandr Koval transporting heavy military equipment. These indicate robust and continuous RUF logistical efforts to sustain frontline operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Information Operations (IO):
    • Battlefield Claims: RUF milbloggers (Операция Z, WarGonzo) are rapidly posting claims of successful strikes in Kyiv ("Последствия ночных ударов по инфраструктуре Киева"), often with visual "evidence" (smoke plumes, fires, night explosions). These are designed to amplify perceived success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF milbloggers (WarGonzo, Rybar) are releasing "frontline summaries" for the morning of 23 JUN 25, covering various sectors including Sumy and Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Atrocity Fabrications: TASS is disseminating video "evidence" of UAF "finishing off" wounded RUF soldiers, likely a fabricated atrocity to justify RUF actions. The claim of a UAF drone attack on a bus stop in Svatove (LPR) is a likely false-flag operation designed to justify RUF "retaliation." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF propaganda)
    • Global Diversion (ESCALATED, NEW CLAIMS): TASS continues to push narratives regarding the "global oil shock" if the Strait of Hormuz is closed by Tehran, reinforcing the "global war" narrative, and claims "Strikes on nuclear facilities in Iran could damage food security in a number of countries." RUF milbloggers are disseminating RUF milblogger claims and satellite imagery of "preliminary assessment of US strike damage" in Iran. WarGonzo now claims "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran." TASS further reports "US Air Force used a diversionary maneuver with two B-2 groups during the bombing of Iran on the night of June 22," citing NYT, which is a further fabrication using manipulated media. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports Iran will continue uranium enrichment despite external pressure. TASS reports Russia plans to cancel visas with Myanmar, Jordan, and Bahrain in 2025, a domestic-focused diplomatic initiative aimed at projecting normal state function. TASS reports Japan's PM pulling out of the NATO summit due to US strike on Iran and Trump's possible absence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Два майора questions Trump's claims and purpose of Iran strike, implying RUF is pushing fabricated confusion. Операция Z reports Nebenzya's statement on Washington's disregard for international law, linking it to the fabricated Iran conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New TASS message claims "Putin to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister on June 23." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO to reinforce "global conflict" narrative). New Basurin photo claims "Marco Rubio believes the world has become safer after US strikes on Iran." This is a fabricated quote, likely to legitimize the "US-Iran war" narrative by attributing support from Western politicians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF fabrication). New TASS message claims "Israel strikes six airfields in western, eastern, and central Iran, IDF reports." This is a fabricated IDF statement to escalate the "war" narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF fabrication). New Alex Parker Returns message amplifies the fabricated NYT report: "Iran evacuated equipment and uranium from the Fordo nuclear facility days before US strikes on it, claims the yellow tabloid The New York Times." This continues to manipulate Western media. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF manipulation). New Colonelcassad message reports Iran will continue uranium enrichment, citing anonymous CNN sources saying underground facilities in Isfahan were not damaged, and claiming Iran removed valuable assets. This is an effort to manage the fabricated narrative, attempting to make the "Iran-Israel/US War" appear real but with limited US success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF narrative control). New Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition message reiterates "Putin to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister today." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). New ТАСС message "Russia conducting contacts with Americans, including on situation around Iran, Ushakov notes." This is a significant fabrication aimed at portraying Russia as a global diplomatic player and a responsible actor in the fabricated crisis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF fabrication). New Операция Z message amplifies a fabricated IDF statement: "Israeli aviation again strikes military infrastructure in Iran." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF fabrication). New Kotsnews message titled "Militarization of ports and Trump's risky move" is vague but likely continues the global conflict framing. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). New Два майора video purports to show "Anti-war protests began in New York after US strikes on Iran." This is likely an attempt to show domestic US dissent against the fabricated conflict, utilizing existing anti-war sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO).
    • Mockery/Dehumanization: RUF channels are employing taunting language ("Киев хорошеет на глазах." - "Kyiv is getting better before your eyes," "вопли хохлов") immediately after strikes, a clear psychological operation to demoralize and dehumanize. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" is now posting unrelated "fluffy cuteness" images, possibly to create a sense of normalcy or distraction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New Alex Parker Returns message mocks a Ukrainian musician whose apartment was damaged in Kyiv, calling him a "clown" and expressing satisfaction. This is a direct, personal dehumanization tactic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO).
    • Normalizing Occupation: RUF channels are posting celebratory videos from occupied Mariupol, framing it as "liberated" to project normalcy and RUF control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Dehumanizing Ukraine/UAF: TASS is reporting that Apty Alaudinov (RUF Deputy Head of Main Military-Political Directorate) is on Ukraine's SBU wanted list, likely to portray UAF as a criminal entity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New Север.Реалии message "Russia will remove the school course of Ukrainian language and literature from the federal general education program." This is a cultural and informational tactic to erase Ukrainian identity in occupied territories and internally. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF cultural aggression).
    • Exaggerated UAF Losses: TASS, citing Andrey Marochko, claims UAF and foreign mercenaries suffered 4,100 killed and wounded in battles on the LPR frontlines over the past week. Marochko further claims UAF retreated last week near LPR, abandoning strategic heights, and attempts to stabilize the front were unsuccessful. This is an unverified, highly inflated figure, typical of RUF propaganda. (LOW CONFIDENCE – RUF claim, likely fabricated/exaggerated).
    • Historical Pretext: RUF state-media and milblogger channels continue to invoke the 22 June 1941 anniversary of the Nazi invasion of the USSR, explicitly linking it to a "final crusade" by the West and framing their own imminent actions as a pre-emptive or necessary historical repetition. Basurin (RUF milblogger) posted historical content on the Siege of Vyborg in 1710, potentially to project RUF military legacy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New Два майора photo shows a monument opening at Brest Fortress on June 21, commemorating "Soviet border guards," explicitly tying into the 22 JUN 1941 narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF historical revisionism/propaganda).
    • Domestic Diversion/Control: TASS reports Ministry of Digital Development proposes banning phone number reprogramming to combat cybercrime and creating a unified mobile device database. News from Moscow reports a bill banning vape/e-cigarette sales. ASTRA reports criminal cases against 13 and 14-year-old schoolgirls for throwing flowers into the Eternal Flame. Север.Реалии reports deterioration of medical services in Dno. These stories divert domestic attention from military operations and reinforce internal control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Архангел Спецназа promotes "God's Eye" surveillance system to be operational from July 1 across Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Mobilizatsia | Novosti | Srochniki shares info on a bot for mobilization news. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad shares technical update regarding bot operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника shares video for fundraising for paratroopers, depicting RUF soldiers with Russian and Serbian flag. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New TASS message reports on a new law in Duma to support businesses that help employee families, another domestic diversion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New TASS message reports on fines up to 1M rubles for selling vapes/e-cigarettes, another domestic diversion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New TASS messages highlight Putin's international activities and confirm no call with Trump, aiming to project normalcy and diplomatic engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New TASS message reports a bear attack in Sakhalin, with fatalities, a local news story used as diversion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New Архангел Спецназа photo claims "One of the traitors who went over to the AFU was handed over as part of an exchange...to Russia." This is likely RUF IO to deter desertion and promote a sense of control over POW exchanges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO).
• Ukrainian Media: РБК-Україна and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS continue to disseminate tactical analysis of images from the Kyiv attack, focusing on visual details of destruction and emergency response. РБК-Україна also highlighted the damage to a Ukrainian musician's apartment, increasing the emotional impact. STERNENKO highlights the need for military aid after the recent attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS now confirms missile fragments hitting KPI pool and shows immediate aftermath footage with survivor accounts and aerial BDA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ shares images on the national moment of silence and UAF AD interception stats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Север.Реалии reports on Kyiv attack fatalities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна reports on Lancet strike in Chernihiv, confirming fatalities and wounded children, directly highlighting RUF atrocities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна reports KCMA confirmation of a married couple killed in Kyiv, personalizing the tragedy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• HIGH: Conduct immediate Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) in Kyiv and Bila Tserkva to confirm munition types (especially Iskander claims), specific targets hit (e.g., KPI vs. civilian infrastructure, Greblya Club/hotel/clinic vs. military targets), and the extent of damage to residential vs. military/industrial sites. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA, OSINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Assess RUF's current inventory and production rate of both cruise and ballistic missile types (Iskander, Kh-59/69, Lancet). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, IMINT).
• MEDIUM: Evaluate the effectiveness of UAF AD against the multi-munition attack (cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, UAVs). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, OSINT).
• MEDIUM: Verify the nature and intent of RUF KAB launches on Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk/Mykolaiv. Are these routine, or shaping operations for new ground thrusts? (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT).
• CRITICAL: Verify RUF ground force disposition and immediate intent on the Sumy axis. Determine if the 52,000-strong force is postured for an immediate, large-scale offensive, or will continue shaping operations. This is the #1 intelligence priority. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, SIGINT, IMINT)
• CRITICAL: Assess the real-world impact of Russia's extreme IO fabrications, specifically the "US-Iran War" narrative, and the new claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran," and the use of manipulated media (e.g., NYT). Monitor international diplomatic and media channels for any traction or confusion caused by this narrative that could impact policy or support for Ukraine. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT on diplomatic channels)
• MEDIUM: Verify RUF claims of UAF armored vehicle destruction near Novosergievka, RUF claims of UAF retreat near LPR, and RUF claims of drone strikes on UAF logistics near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), and the new RUF MoD claim of T-80BVM tank destroying UAF stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT).
• MEDIUM: Conduct BDA on the Lancet strike in Chernihiv Oblast to confirm munition type and intent. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA, OSINT).
• LOW: Verify Pushilin's claim of RUF liberating all settlements in DNR where UAF counter-attacked in 2023. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, IMINT).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Air/Missile Capabilities: RUF has demonstrated a continued capability to execute complex, multi-domain, multi-munition air assaults against Kyiv, now confirmed to have caused significant damage and increased casualties (6 confirmed fatalities). The claims of Iskander use (now with confirmed hits on KPI by UAF sources) suggest a renewed willingness to expend high-value ballistic missiles in urban saturation attacks, alongside cruise missiles and UAVs, designed to overwhelm layered AD. RUF also maintains capability for widespread KAB launches on frontline oblasts and now a confirmed aerial weapon threat to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and use of Kh-59/69 in Mykolaiv. RUF demonstrated the capability to plan and execute both mass combined-arms strikes (Kremenchuk) and precision strikes against high-value military targets (UAF training ground). The new confirmed strikes on civilian infrastructure in Bila Tserkva (hotel, medical clinic, residential) and Chernihiv (Lancet strike on village outskirts) indicate a continued, deliberate targeting policy against non-military sites. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Ground Capabilities: The confirmed presence of a 52,000-strong RUF force on the Sumy axis signifies a critical capability for a major multi-axis ground offensive. RUF continues to conduct intense, attritional assaults on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk/Mirnohrad, Siversk), now with confirmed tactical gains at Perebudova (Donetsk) and Petrovske (Kharkiv), supported by heavy aviation (KABs, Ka-52M) and thermobaric (TOS-1A) systems. RUF propaganda continues to show confidence in destroying UAF armored vehicles, indicative of continued offensive operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF appears to possess effective drone capabilities for targeting UAF logistics and personnel, as claimed by Poddubny. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

• Logistical Capabilities: RUF maintains robust and continuous logistical support for its frontline forces, including fuel, water, and heavy equipment transportation, as evidenced by recent RUF milblogger videos from the Kherson and Bakhmut directions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Information Warfare Capabilities: RUF's IO remains highly agile, immediately exploiting kinetic events to propagate false claims of military success and further psychological pressure. The use of mockery and dehumanizing language immediately after strikes is a key tactic. RUF is also actively fabricating atrocity claims against UAF. The claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran" and the use of manipulated media (e.g., NYT article on B-2 operations in Iran, fabricated IDF statements) represents a new, dangerous escalation in their IO sophistication, directly tying Ukraine to the fabricated global conflict. The creation of new, fabricated kinetic events within the "global war" narrative, as seen with the Fordo claim and "damage to food security" claims, indicates a further escalation in their IO sophistication and willingness to create entirely fictitious battlefield scenarios. The recent claim of UAF losses (4,100 killed/wounded) from Marochko indicates continued attempts to demoralize UAF and inflate RUF's perceived effectiveness. The detailed "chronicles" and "summaries" from milbloggers aim to control the narrative of the conflict. The coordinated invocation of the 22 JUN 1941 historical narrative is a sophisticated, high-level IO effort to provide a pretext for escalation. RUF is leveraging domestic surveillance systems ("God's Eye") and mobilizing bots to enhance internal control and information dissemination. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF is using mixed messaging, including mundane or irrelevant content, to distract and normalize the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The fabricated quote attributed to Marco Rubio and the false report of "anti-war protests in NYC" targeting US strikes on Iran indicate a new phase of legitimizing their false narratives by attributing them to Western figures or showing false Western dissent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Intentions: RUF intends to:

  • Execute a Major Ground Offensive: The 52,000-troop concentration and the 22 JUN 1941 historical pretext indicate a high intent for a major multi-axis ground offensive, likely on the Sumy and/or Kharkiv axes, to open a new front and stretch UAF reserves. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Degrade UAF AD and Critical Infrastructure & Force Generation: Continue saturation attacks on Kyiv and other strategic cities, attempting to deplete AD interceptors and strike critical civilian (residential, transport), and now explicitly, military-linked infrastructure (training grounds, confirmed hit on KPI pool). The confirmed strikes on civilian sites in Bila Tserkva (hotel, medical clinic, residential) and Chernihiv (village outskirts) underscore this intent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Maximize Psychological Impact and Terror: The direct targeting of residential areas (Shevchenkivskyi residential building, Sviatoshyn bus stop, Bila Tserkva residential areas, Chernihiv village outskirts) and the use of mocking language and personalized attacks (e.g., against Ukrainian musician) are clear attempts to terrorize the civilian population and undermine morale. The increased casualty count in Kyiv confirms this intent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Exaggerate Military Success: RUF aims to inflate perceived military successes through immediate, unverified claims of strikes on high-value targets (KPI main building, Zhuliany, Antonov) and claims of UAF equipment destruction to project strength and demoralize UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Generate False Pretexts/Justifications: By fabricating atrocity claims against UAF (e.g., "finishing off wounded," Svatove bus stop) and now claims of "Ukrainian saboteurs" in Iran, RUF seeks to justify its own actions and potentially future escalations or war crimes. The 22 JUN 1941 narrative serves as a broad historical pretext for the entire invasion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Maintain Global Diversion (ESCALATED): Continue to intersperse unrelated domestic news and maintain the broader "Iran-Israel/US War" narrative, now with the active creation of new fabricated kinetic events and attributed statements (e.g., TASS Hormuz Strait claims, "Операция Z" Fordo claims, TASS claims of food security damage from Iranian nuclear strikes), the use of manipulated media (e.g., NYT), and directly implicating Ukraine (e.g., "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran") to make the fabricated conflict appear more real and to further divert international attention from Ukraine. The new claims of Putin meeting Iranian FM and Russia having contacts with US on Iran are intended to elevate Russia's role in this fabricated conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Consolidate Control in Occupied Territories: By staging celebratory events in places like Mariupol and making unverified claims of "liberating" former counter-offensive areas, RUF seeks to project normalcy and legitimacy for its occupation. The removal of Ukrainian language from school curricula is a long-term effort to erase Ukrainian identity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Destabilize Moldova: Continued rhetoric from TASS via Igor Dodon regarding Moldova's leadership and Transnistria suggests RUF intends to maintain pressure and potential for destabilization in the region, consistent with broader hybrid warfare aims. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• RUF: The sequential use of different missile types (ballistic then cruise, or intermingled) in Kyiv attacks continues. The explicit claims of targeting specific educational/industrial sites (KPI) by RUF sources, now partially corroborated by UAF with missile fragments hitting KPI pool, indicates continued intelligence-led targeting, whether accurate or for propaganda purposes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The immediate use of mocking IO ("Kyiv is getting better") linked to confirmed strikes indicates an intensified psychological warfare component. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The likely fabrication of UAF atrocities is a further escalation in RUF IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The active fabrication of kinetic events within the global "Iran-Israel/US War" narrative (e.g., Fordo attack assessment, food security claims), the use of manipulated media (e.g., NYT), and now the direct implication of Ukraine through claims of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran" represents a new, dangerous escalation in RUF's IO, moving from mere narrative creation to inventing real-time battlefield scenarios directly linked to Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The successful precision strike on a UAF training ground indicates a new, dangerous focus on degrading UAF force generation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The consistent invocation of the 22 JUN 1941 narrative and monument openings is a critical, coordinated IO shift. The confirmed Lancet strike in Chernihiv Oblast indicates continued use of smaller, precision UAVs against civilian targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The promotion of internal surveillance systems ("God's Eye") and mobilization bots indicates a focus on information control and recruitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The new claims of Putin meeting Iranian FM and Russia having contacts with the US on Iran, as well as fabricated quotes from Western politicians, demonstrate RUF's shift to actively projecting a diplomatic role in the fabricated global crisis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF: UAF AD and civil defense systems continue to react rapidly to evolving threats, providing timely warnings and managing strike aftermath, as evidenced by DSNS and KCMA updates on casualties and rescue efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF's establishment of the Grouping of Forces of Unmanned Systems and acquisition of new counter-drone EW aircraft and Norway's drone aid/NASAMS office opening demonstrate adaptation to evolving threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF counter-offensives (Andriyivka, Sumy) and defensive preparations (Sumy obstacles) show tactical initiative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) GUR and MFA demonstrating capability to conduct international evacuations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF DSHV demonstrates continued focus on reconnaissance and drone operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF 47th Mech Brig highlights its robust medical support for combat casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) SBU Special Operations presence indicates continued elite unit activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) 82nd Airmobile Brigade's active drone hunting indicates effective tactical drone operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• RUF: The sustained volume of cruise missile, UAV, ballistic missile, and KAB launches indicates robust and continued access to diverse long-range precision munitions. The ability to concentrate 52,000 troops on the Sumy axis suggests robust logistical support for ground operations. New RUF videos confirm ongoing, active logistical operations, including fuel supply, water delivery, and heavy equipment transport, indicating effective sustainment for frontline units in multiple directions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad video on RUF military drivers indicates ongoing efforts to maintain logistical support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF: UAF GUR successfully executed a deep strike on a RUF fuel train in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, impacting logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Zaporizhzhia OVA reports partial power restoration after recent strikes. No new information on general sustainment status. Norway's financial aid for drones further bolsters UAF sustainment in this critical area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• RUF: Highly effective C2 remains evident in the coordinated multi-domain air assault and the immediate, synchronized IO amplifying kinetic results. The coordinated invocation of the 22 JUN 1941 narrative across multiple channels, and the new rapid development of "Ukrainian saboteur" claims and manipulated media demonstrates high-level C2 over IO. The new IO elements, including claims of Putin meeting Iranian FM and Russia contacting the US on Iran, further demonstrate a highly centralized and coordinated IO C2 apparatus. The arrest of a Belgorod Deputy Governor might indicate internal control issues or anti-corruption efforts within RUF C2 structures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF: Effective tactical C2 for AD alerts, public safety, and emergency response continues. GUR and MFA C2 demonstrates effective international coordination. UAF DSHV and 47th Mech Brig videos illustrate effective unit-level C2 for reconnaissance, drone operations, and combat medical support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) SBU Special Operations and 82nd Airmobile Brigade activities indicate effective C2 at the special forces and tactical unit levels. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.5. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• HIGH: Assess RUF's inventory and production rates for Iskander ballistic missiles, Kh-59/69 missiles, and Lancet UAVs. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, IMINT).
• MEDIUM: Identify RUF targeting patterns related to educational/civilian infrastructure in Kyiv, especially in light of the KPI claim, and the deliberate targeting of residential areas, now confirmed with increased fatalities and impacts in Bila Tserkva and Chernihiv. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA, OSINT).
• CRITICAL: Verify RUF claims of breakthroughs toward Siversk and Mirnohrad. Determine the true extent of any RUF gains and the stability of UAF defensive lines. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
• LOW: Assess the impact of the Belgorod Deputy Governor's arrest on RUF internal control and local administration. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Defensive Posture: UAF AD remains actively engaged, demonstrating high readiness against persistent air attacks, successfully intercepting 354/368 aerial targets. Civilian authorities (KCMA, Emergency Services, Office of Prosecutor) are effectively managing consequences and providing public safety updates, including confirmed casualty figures and rescue operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New video shows UAF actively reinforcing defensive positions in Sumy Oblast with anti-tank obstacles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Civilian Alertness: Despite continued attacks, civilian populations are following safety instructions and are being provided timely information. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Naval Operations: UAF Naval Forces (ВМС ЗСУ) provided a situation update on maritime conditions as of 06:00, 23 JUN 25. This indicates continued situational awareness and operational readiness in the Black Sea and Azov Sea regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Force Generation & Adaptation: The newly established Grouping of Forces of Unmanned Systems is operational. UAF is acquiring new counter-drone EW aircraft ("SHARK") and developing new tactics (ground-based counter-FPV systems). UAF DSHV video shows continued training and operational readiness of reconnaissance units. Norway's commitment of $400M for drones and NASAMS producer opening an office in Ukraine further enhances UAF force generation and adaptation capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) SBU Special Operations Center "A" continues to demonstrate high readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kryvyi Rih: Military administration reports situation controlled. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• International Engagement: GUR and MFA successfully evacuated Ukrainian citizens from Israel, demonstrating robust international cooperation and capacity for citizen protection abroad. The Coordination Staff for POWs continues to meet with families, indicating strong internal support systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Medical Support: The 47th Mechanized Brigade highlights their operational stabilization point, demonstrating capacity for combat casualty care. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Morale: Zaporizhzhia OVA and Оперативний ЗСУ share messages on national moments of silence, indicating sustained national unity and remembrance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes:
  • Effective Public Warning System: UAF Air Force and KCMA continue to provide rapid and accurate threat warnings. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Rapid Emergency Response: Ukrainian emergency services (DSNS) are responding swiftly to fires and providing medical aid to casualties, releasing timely visual evidence of their efforts and confirming rescues of civilians, including children and a pregnant woman. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Naval Situation Monitoring: UAF Naval Forces maintain a vigilant watch on maritime activities, providing up-to-date intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Localized Counter-Offensive: UAF liberated the settlement of Andriyivka (Sumy Oblast), demonstrating tactical initiative and resilience in the face of RUF buildup. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF is actively strengthening defenses in Sumy Oblast, preparing for RUF offensive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Deep Strikes & Asymmetric Warfare: UAF GUR successfully executed a deep strike on a RUF fuel train in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, impacting logistics. UAF drones continue to successfully strike RUF assets deep inside Russian territory (Smolensk, Bryansk). UAF MiG-29 successfully deployed AASM HAMMER in Kozynka (Belgorod). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) 82nd Airmobile Brigade drone pilots are effectively hunting RUF personnel in Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • AD Interceptions: UAF AD successfully intercepted 28/47 UAVs and 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles. UAF Air Force reports neutralizing 354/368 aerial targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RUF Personnel Losses: Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlits" reports at least 6483 RUF officers "demobilized" (KIA/WIA/MIA) since Feb 2022. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • International Citizen Protection: GUR and MFA successfully evacuated 133 Ukrainian citizens from Israel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Reconnaissance Effectiveness: DSHV video illustrates sophisticated reconnaissance capabilities, including night operations with thermal imaging. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Combat Medical Support: 47th Mechanized Brigade highlights effective stabilization point operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • SBU Special Operations: Demonstrated continued high-level special forces activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Setbacks:
  • Significant Civilian Infrastructure Damage & Increased Casualties: Confirmed damage to a multi-story residential building, a non-residential building, autos, and a bus stop in Kyiv. Confirmed six (6) fatalities and over sixteen (16) wounded in Kyiv, including a married couple. This demonstrates continued penetration by RUF munitions into densely populated civilian areas. Strikes on Ochakiv caused 3 wounded and extensive damage to residential buildings and infrastructure. New confirmed strikes in Bila Tserkva (Greblya Club, hotel, medical clinic, residential buildings) and Chernihiv (Lancet strike on village outskirts causing 2 fatalities and 10 wounded, including children) indicate expanded targeting of civilian infrastructure, directly causing more civilian casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Strategic Infrastructure & Force Generation Impacts: The successful RUF missile strike on the Kremenchuk energy infrastructure and the UAF training ground resulted in significant damage/casualties, indicating a dangerous capability shift by RUF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) A confirmed missile fragment hit on the KPI swimming pool indicates continued RUF targeting near military-linked facilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Information Warfare Vulnerability (CRITICAL, WORSENING): The continued amplification by Ukrainian media (e.g., РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) of RUF's fabricated "Iran-Israel/US War" narrative, including new kinetic elements (e.g., Trump claiming Iranian nuclear facilities destroyed, satellite imagery of Fordo/Natanz/Isfahan, manipulated NYT articles, fabricated IDF statements), and now the new claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran," even amidst direct kinetic attacks on Kyiv, remains a severe and worsening self-inflicted wound. This directly undermines Ukraine's information security and its ability to maintain international focus. This is exacerbated by РБК-Україна's and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS continued publication of generic "tactical analyses of images" that do not critically assess the source or content, despite receiving direct RUF propaganda or being published in the context of it. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Air Defense: Continued urgent need for advanced AD systems, particularly those effective against ballistic missiles (like Iskander) and capable of countering saturation attacks combining multiple munition types. Norway's commitment of NASAMS office opening is a positive step but more is needed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Counter-IO: The persistent amplification of RUF disinformation by Ukrainian media highlights a critical, unaddressed strategic deficiency in counter-information capabilities that is directly harming national security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Force Protection: Urgent need for enhanced force protection for UAF training grounds and assembly areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Energy Infrastructure: Continued need for protection and rapid repair capabilities for energy infrastructure, as evidenced by Zaporizhzhia power outages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• NONE.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian (CRITICAL ESCALATION - Direct Kinetic Fabrication, Intensified Dehumanization, Continued Global Diversion, Atrocity Fabrications, New Kinetic Event Fabrications, Inflated UAF Losses, Moldova Destabilization, Historical Pretext for Invasion, Directly Implicating Ukraine in Fabricated Global Conflict, Use of Manipulated Media, Internal Control Emphasis, Projecting Diplomatic Authority in Fabricated Crisis):
  • Immediate Kinetic Fabrication & Misattribution: RUF milbloggers are immediately claiming "Iskander" strikes on Kyiv and specific targets like KPI, potentially fabricating munition type for greater psychological impact and to inflate RUF capabilities. They are also actively misattributing damage to residential buildings as UAF AD failures. New RUF milblogger videos claiming "strike on Kyiv" and "Good morning from Tagr" directly follow the attacks. RUF milbloggers (WarGonzo, Rybar, Colonelcassad, Поддубный) are releasing "frontline summaries" with claims of UAF equipment destruction and successful strikes (e.g., FAB on Yalta, drone strikes near Krasnoarmeysk). Pushilin claims full liberation of 2023 counter-offensive areas. New WarGonzo photo claims "RUF conducted mass drone attack on Kyiv." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Intensified Dehumanization & Mockery: RUF channels are using highly inflammatory language ("Kyiv is getting better," "wails of Khokhols") immediately after confirmed civilian impacts, designed to mock Ukrainian suffering and further dehumanize the population. This is a direct psychological operation aimed at breaking morale. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posting "fluffy cuteness" may be a new form of psychological operations to create a jarring contrast and normalize the conflict. New Alex Parker Returns message mocks a Ukrainian musician whose apartment was damaged, calling him a "clown" and expressing satisfaction. This is direct, personal dehumanization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Fabrication of Atrocities: TASS is actively disseminating fabricated atrocity claims against UAF ("finished off wounded soldiers") to generate false pretexts and justifications for RUF actions. The Svatove bus stop claim is a likely false-flag. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Continued Global Diversion (CRITICAL, ESCALATED, NEW CLAIMS, Projecting Diplomatic Role): The overarching "Iran-Israel/US War" fabrication continues, now with RUF state media (TASS) and milbloggers actively creating new fabricated kinetic events (e.g., "Trump claimed all nuclear facilities in Iran destroyed," TASS Hormuz Strait closure/oil shock, RUF milbloggers reporting on "preliminary assessment of US strike damage" at Fordo, Natanz, Isfahan, Iran, TASS claims on "food security damage from Iranian nuclear strikes"), and crucially, using manipulated media (e.g., TASS citing NYT on B-2 diversionary tactics in Iran, Alex Parker Returns amplifying fabricated NYT on Fordo). Crucially, WarGonzo now claims "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran," directly implicating Ukraine in the fabricated global conflict. TASS reports Iran will continue peaceful uranium enrichment despite external pressure, likely trying to portray Iran as a victim of Western aggression. Два майора questions Trump's Iran claims, sowing confusion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad claims Iran shot down Hermes-900 drone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Операция Z reports Nebenzya's statement on Washington's disregard for international law, linking it to the fabricated Iran conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New TASS message claims "Putin to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister on June 23." New TASS message claims "Russia conducting contacts with Americans, including on situation around Iran, Ushakov notes." These are significant fabrications aimed at portraying Russia as a global diplomatic player and a responsible actor in the fabricated crisis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Basurin photo claims "Marco Rubio believes the world has become safer after US strikes on Iran." This is a fabricated quote, likely to legitimize the "US-Iran war" narrative by attributing support from Western politicians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF fabrication). New TASS message claims "Israel strikes six airfields in western, eastern, and central Iran, IDF reports." This is a fabricated IDF statement to escalate the "war" narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF fabrication). New Colonelcassad message reports Iran will continue uranium enrichment, citing anonymous CNN sources saying underground facilities in Isfahan were not damaged, and claiming Iran removed valuable assets. This is an effort to manage the fabricated narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New Два майора video purports to show "Anti-war protests began in New York after US strikes on Iran." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Irrelevant Domestic Content: Russian state-affiliated channels continue to release unrelated domestic news (e.g., Ministry of Digital Development's proposal on phone IDs, Khabarovsk police activity, anti-bullying initiatives, embezzlement cases related to soldiers, flooding in Khabarovsk Krai, Putin's past concern for football development, Russia planning to cancel visas with Myanmar, Jordan, and Bahrain, a bill banning vapes in Russia, Belgorod Deputy Governor arrest) to further dilute attention from the conflict in Ukraine and project normalcy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New TASS messages on a new business support law and vape fines, and a bear attack, continue this trend. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Normalizing Occupation: RUF channels like "Операция Z" are attempting to normalize the occupation of Ukrainian cities (e.g., Mariupol) by showcasing celebratory events. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Dehumanizing Ukraine/UAF: TASS is reporting that Apty Alaudinov (RUF Deputy Head of Main Military-Political Directorate) is on Ukraine's SBU wanted list, likely to portray UAF as a criminal entity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New Север.Реалии message "Russia will remove the school course of Ukrainian language and literature from the federal general education program." This is a cultural and informational tactic to erase Ukrainian identity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Exaggerated UAF Losses: RUF channels are disseminating vastly inflated claims of UAF casualties (e.g., 4,100 killed/wounded in LPR over a week) and claims of UAF retreats (Marochko on UAF near LPR) to demoralize and project RUF strength. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Moldova Destabilization: TASS is disseminating narratives from Igor Dodon warning Moldovan leaders against "Western provocations" and using a "force scenario in Transnistria," a clear attempt to sow discord and preempt any Moldovan actions in the breakaway region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Promoting Military Might and Cohesion: RUF channels continue to push propaganda emphasizing military power, readiness, and unit brotherhood. TASS also uses "military experts" like Xavier Moreau to promote narratives of Russian strength. TASS reporting Apty Alaudinov on SBU wanted list is also likely designed to elevate his status among RUF supporters. Дневник Десантника appeals for donations for paratroopers, showing unity and need for support. New Colonelcassad videos featuring RUF logistics personnel highlight their "crucial role" and "dedication," promoting unit cohesion and essential service. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Historical Pretext for Invasion: RUF state-media and milblogger channels continue to simultaneously and in a coordinated fashion invoke the 22 June 1941 anniversary of the Nazi invasion of the USSR, explicitly linking it to a "final crusade" by the West and framing their own imminent actions as a pre-emptive or necessary historical repetition. Basurin's historical military posts likely reinforce this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New Два майора photo shows a monument opening at Brest Fortress on June 21, commemorating "Soviet border guards," explicitly tying into the 22 JUN 1941 narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • International Diplomatic Disinformation: TASS reports Japan's PM plans to withdraw from the NATO summit, aiming to portray weakening international unity against Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF propaganda aimed at international perception).
  • Internal Criticism of Russian Healthcare: "Север.Реалии" (likely an opposition channel) reporting on the deterioration of healthcare in Dno, Russia, hints at internal issues that RUF seeks to suppress. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Suppression of Dissent: ASTRA's report of criminal cases against teenage girls for throwing flowers into the Eternal Flame indicates Russia's harsh internal measures to suppress any perceived disrespect for state symbols or narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Internal Surveillance & Mobilization: Архангел Спецназа promotes "God's Eye" surveillance system. Mobilizatsia | Novosti | Srochniki shares info on a bot. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New Архангел Спецназа photo claims "One of the traitors who went over to the AFU was handed over as part of an exchange...to Russia." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Ukrainian:
  • CRITICAL VULNERABILITY: Amplification of RUF Disinformation (SELF-INFLICTED WOUND, WORSENING): Prominent Ukrainian media (e.g., РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) continues to widely amplify RUF's dangerous "Iran-Israel/US War" fabrications, including new kinetic elements (e.g., Trump claiming Iranian nuclear facilities destroyed, satellite imagery of Fordo/Natanz/Isfahan, manipulated NYT articles, fabricated IDF statements), and now the claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran," even as Ukraine faces direct missile attacks. This is a severe and persistent failure in information security. This is worsened by the publication of generic "tactical analyses of image" content without critical source assessment, immediately following the amplification of Russian propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Public Safety Messaging: UAF Air Force, KCMA, DSNS, and Zaporizhzhia OVA continue to provide essential public safety warnings and report on strike consequences, including visual documentation and updated casualty figures (now updated by DSNS Head Svitlana Vodolaga and KCMA confirming 6 fatalities). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 and Оперативний ЗСУ videos show immediate aftermath and rescue operations in Kyiv, emphasizing civilian casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Operational Updates: UAF Naval Forces and General Staff are providing timely updates on maritime situation and general battlefield conditions, contributing to transparency and situational awareness, including UAF confirmed RUF losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The Office of the General Prosecutor is documenting war crimes and providing photo evidence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Offensive Messaging: DeepState and Operativny ZSU highlight successful UAF deep strikes and local counter-offensives. New Оперативний ЗСУ video shows 82nd Airmobile Brigade drone hunting RUF personnel, highlighting UAF tactical successes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Call for Aid: STERNENKO's message calling for aid to the military after the night attacks is a positive and timely, morale-boosting message. New Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 message highlights Norway's $400M drone aid and NASAMS office opening, directly linking international support to UAF capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • International Citizen Protection: Coordination Staff for POWs reporting on GUR/MFA evacuation from Israel highlights state capabilities and concern for citizens. New photos from Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими show support for POW families. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • National Unity/Remembrance: Zaporizhzhia OVA and Оперативний ЗСУ share messages on moments of silence for fallen defenders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Military Professionalism: DSHV and 47th Mech Brig share videos highlighting training, operational effectiveness, and medical support. New 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) video shows SBU Special Operations, showcasing elite capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Defensive Readiness: New STERNENKO video showing anti-tank obstacles in Sumy Oblast reinforces UAF's readiness for defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Humanitarian Impact: РБК-Україна reporting on a married couple among fatalities in Kyiv and children wounded in Chernihiv humanizes the impact of RUF aggression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian: Civilian morale in Kyiv and surrounding oblasts (now including Bila Tserkva and Chernihiv) is under severe strain due to repeated and now confirmed destructive multi-domain air attacks, leading to increased casualties (now 6 confirmed fatalities, including a married couple) and property destruction, and now including children among the wounded. The direct targeting of residential areas increases fear and anxiety. The continued amplification of RUF's fabricated "global war" and the new direct implication of Ukraine by some Ukrainian media risks sowing confusion, distrust, and undermining national resolve. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The call for aid to the military by STERNENKO reflects an ongoing need for support and public engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The confirmed hit on KPI, a prominent educational institution, will likely further impact public sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Russian: Domestic sentiment continues to be manipulated by the pervasive "global war" narrative, now reinforced by immediate (and often fabricated) claims of successful strikes in Ukraine, attempts to project normalcy in occupied territories, and new fabricated atrocity claims against UAF, and the creation of entirely new fabricated kinetic events in the "global conflict," now directly involving Ukraine. The vastly inflated UAF casualty claims from Marochko are designed to boost domestic morale, as are the internal military propaganda videos and the use of "historical pretext" for invasion (e.g., Brest Fortress monument). Domestic news unrelated to the war also aims to foster a sense of normalcy and distract, as does the promotion of internal surveillance. The arrest of a Belgorod official could lead to some internal discontent or questioning. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Global Diversion (CRITICAL, Escalated): RUF's "Iran-Israel/US War" fabrication continues to consume international attention, now actively including fabricated kinetic events and attributed diplomatic statements to make it appear more real (e.g., TASS on Hormuz, Операция Z on Fordo, TASS on food security impacts, TASS citing NYT on B-2 operations, fabricated IDF statements, fabricated Marco Rubio quote, fabricated anti-war protests in NYC), and most critically, directly implicating Ukraine with false claims of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran." This severely hinders Ukraine's diplomatic efforts to maintain focus on the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports Japan's PM pulling out of NATO summit, intended to portray weakening international unity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New TASS messages claiming Putin meeting Iranian FM and Russia having contacts with the US on Iran are designed to elevate Russia's perceived diplomatic role in this fabricated crisis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Ukrainian Diplomacy: Ukraine's efforts to secure support are undermined by the effectiveness of RUF's global diversion, particularly when false narratives are amplified by Ukrainian media itself. GUR/MFA evacuation from Israel demonstrates continued capacity for international diplomatic operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Zelenskyy's announcement of Norway's drone aid and NASAMS office opening is a positive diplomatic development, countering the RUF narrative of weakening support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RUF Diplomatic Efforts: RUF claims it will present a report on "crimes of UAF against civilians in Kherson Oblast" to the UN Security Council and OSCE, indicating continued efforts to use international bodies for propaganda purposes and false accusations. The recent TASS message regarding Moldova indicates RUF's efforts to influence regional politics and preempt any perceived Western-backed moves. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF's new claims of high-level diplomatic engagement regarding the fabricated Iran conflict (Putin meeting Iranian FM, contacts with US) are a highly significant, escalating development in their IO strategy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Assessing the real-world impact of Russia's extreme IO fabrications, specifically the "US-Iran War" narrative, and the new claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran," and the use of manipulated media (e.g., NYT). Monitor international diplomatic and media channels for any traction or confusion caused by this narrative that could impact policy or support for Ukraine. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT on diplomatic channels)

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Major Multi-Axis Ground Offensive (Sumy/Kharkiv/Donetsk) with Intensified, Coordinated Ballistic Missile, Cruise Missile, and UAV (including Lancet) Strikes on Kyiv and Strategic Targets, and Hyper-Aggressive, Multi-Layered Global IO Diversion with Fabricated Kinetic Events/Diplomatic Resolutions, Atrocity Claims, and Direct Implication of Ukraine in Fabricated Global Conflicts, bolstered by Manipulated Media and Fabricated Diplomatic Engagements (ESCALATED): RUF will persist with high-intensity ground assaults on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk/Mirnohrad, Siversk), supported by KABs and drones. RUF will launch a major ground offensive on the Sumy axis, possibly coordinated with intensified pressure on the Kharkiv axis, leveraging the 52,000 troop concentration and the 22 JUN historical pretext. This will be supported by overwhelming air, KAB, and missile strikes to soften UAF defenses. RUF will intensify its coordinated multi-domain air attacks on Kyiv and other major urban centers (e.g., Bila Tserkva, Chernihiv), combining ballistic missile launches (from Bryansk/Kursk, and potentially new vectors from Sumy direction) with mass Shahed drone waves and successive cruise missile attacks, aiming to saturate UAF AD and strike high-value military and critical infrastructure targets (including UAF training grounds, KPI pool), and continued strikes on civilian areas (residential, hotels, clinics) to maximize psychological impact. This will include rapid re-engagement and successive waves, likely within hours of each other. The direct targeting of residential areas, immediate mockery by RUF IO channels, and fabrication of UAF atrocities indicate that future attacks will increasingly target civilian population centers and infrastructure directly, rather than solely military targets, and be accompanied by further aggressive pretexts. This will be centrally supported by a further, unprecedented escalation of the fabricated "Iran-Israel/US War" narrative, including the use of state media to report new, fabricated kinetic events and attributed diplomatic statements (e.g., Fordo, Hormuz, food security impacts, Putin meeting Iranian FM, Russia in contact with US on Iran), use of manipulated media (e.g., NYT, fabricated IDF statements, fabricated Western quotes), and the direct, fabricated implication of Ukraine through claims of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran." Fabricated atrocity claims against UAF will increase, along with exaggerated UAF casualty figures. Domestic narrative control will remain a high priority, utilizing global crisis framing to rally support and justify actions in occupied territories and normalize occupation. RUF will continue to use IO to destabilize Moldova and other bordering nations and undermine international support for Ukraine (e.g., Japan/NATO). RUF will leverage internal surveillance and mobilization efforts to reinforce domestic control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Major Multi-Axis Offensive (Sumy/Kharkiv/Donetsk) Coordinated with a Direct Mass Ballistic Missile and Cruise Missile Attack on Kyiv and/or State-Sponsored Terrorist Attack in NATO/EU Capital Attributed to "Global Conflict Actors" or "Ukrainian Saboteurs": RUF launches a major, synchronized offensive operation across multiple axes (Sumy, Kharkiv, and intensified Pokrovsk/Siversk), leveraging the 52,000 troop concentration and overwhelming air/missile support, aimed for a decisive operational breakthrough. This is preceded or accompanied by a direct, high-casualty mass ballistic missile and cruise missile attack on Kyiv, targeting government districts or critical infrastructure, aimed at maximizing terror and disruption, consistent with the "warm-up" and "renovation" messaging and the current kinetic strikes, potentially including the use of cluster munitions on civilian areas. Concurrently, RUF sponsors or executes a high-profile, high-casualty terrorist attack in a European capital, attributing it to "Ukrainian extremists," "ISIS," or "global conflict actors" or, more specifically, to the fabricated "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran" narrative to provide a direct, false link to Ukraine, to maximize international panic and compel a fragmented, inward-looking international response, creating a window for RUF's strategic gains in Ukraine. This MDCOA is further supported by the current aggressive IO shift regarding "Kyiv Oblast," the explicit dehumanization, the new TASS fabrication about Tehran and the direct claims against UAF, the specific focus on fabricating UAF atrocities, the new fabrication of kinetic events in the "global war" narrative, the new, direct claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran," the use of manipulated media (e.g., NYT), and the new claims of high-level diplomatic engagement regarding the fabricated Iran conflict, and the renewed focus on Moldova/Transnistria. (MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 0-6 hours, starting from 230650Z JUN 25):
  • RUF: Expect continued large-scale Shahed drone, ballistic missile, and cruise missile attacks targeting critical infrastructure and military facilities across Ukraine, including follow-on waves in Kyiv and other central/southern oblasts (Bila Tserkva, Kryvyi Rih, Kharkiv, Poltava, Vasylkiv, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv). Expect immediate follow-on narratives regarding the fabricated "Iran-Israel/US War," specifically expanding on new fabricated kinetic events and utilizing new manipulated media (e.g., Fordo, Hormuz, food security impacts, manipulated NYT articles, fabricated IDF statements, fabricated Western quotes), and most critically, expanding on the new claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran." Expect new narratives of Russia's diplomatic role in this fabricated conflict (e.g., Putin meeting Iranian FM, contacts with US on Iran). Expect increased, aggressive RUF IO, including further direct threats ("renovation") and dehumanization of Ukrainians, likely linked to the ongoing attacks, and new fabricated atrocity claims against UAF, along with inflated casualty claims. RUF KAB strikes on Sumy and Donetsk will continue. RUF will likely amplify claims of successful strikes in Kyiv, regardless of actual impact, and try to misattribute damage to UAF AD. RUF will maintain pressure and rhetoric on Moldova/Transnistria and continue to sow disunity among allies (e.g., Japan/NATO). RUF will continue to use internal control mechanisms and cultural erasure (Ukrainian language from schools).
  • UAF Decision Point: Immediately issue an even more robust and direct public counter-narrative specifically debunking the latest, most egregious RUF fabrications regarding the "Iran-Israel/US War" (e.g., fabricated TASS reports of Trump destroying nuclear facilities, manipulated New York Times articles, and IDF claims, new Fordo/Hormuz claims, food security impacts, fabricated diplomatic engagements) and especially the new, highly dangerous claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran." Publicly and directly address specific Ukrainian media outlets (e.g., РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) that amplified these narratives, demanding immediate corrections and outlining severe consequences for continued amplification of enemy disinformation during wartime. Issue a public warning about RUF's new, aggressive IO (the "warm-up," dehumanization, "renovation," and now the mockery related to Kyiv becoming "prettier" and atrocity fabrications, and the new kinetic fabrications, and the direct implication of Ukraine in the fabricated global war), framing it as a clear signal of intent for future, more severe combined attacks (ballistic, cruise, and UAVs) on Kyiv and other civilian targets. Reinforce civil defense measures and ensure rapid damage assessment teams are deployed.
• Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
  • RUF: Expect launch of major ground offensive on the Sumy axis, possibly with intensification of ground probing and shaping operations on the Kharkiv axes, with increased cross-border shelling, KABs, and drone activity, possibly preparing for a larger offensive. Continued high-intensity pressure on the Pokrovsk direction. Continued targeting of civilian infrastructure (now with Bila Tserkva and Chernihiv confirmed impacts) and UAF force generation assets (training grounds, barracks, KPI pool). The 22 JUN 1941 historical narrative will continue to be reinforced, potentially with more aggressive rhetoric targeting Kyiv. RUF will continue to prioritize targeting UAF drone control and logistics. Continued IO pressure on Moldova and undermining of international unity.
  • UAF Decision Point: Intensify diplomatic efforts with European partners and the US to share granular intelligence on RUF's escalating global IO campaign (especially new kinetic fabrications and media manipulation, the direct implication of Ukraine in the fabricated global conflict, and fabricated diplomatic engagements), coordinating pre-emptive responses. Emphasize the new, direct threats against Ukrainian civilians, the extreme dehumanization, and the fabrication of UAF atrocities as precursors to war crimes. Conduct comprehensive BDA on all Kyiv, Bila Tserkva, and Chernihiv impacts to inform future AD strategies. Ensure maritime forces are prepared for potential escalations in the Black Sea. Consolidate gains and prepare for further defensive operations on the Sumy/Kharkiv axes. Continue to highlight military professionalism and combat readiness through media.

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6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Activate a dedicated, 24/7, multi-agency task force for real-time forensic analysis and aggressive, global debunking of Russia's extreme IO fabrications. Focus on exposing the "Iran-Israel/US War" narrative, particularly new elements like fabricated kinetic events (e.g., TASS report of Trump claiming destruction of nuclear facilities, manipulated New York Times articles, fabricated IDF claims, new Fordo/Hormuz claims, and food security impacts), the use of manipulated media (e.g., fabricated NYT articles), fabricated atrocity claims against UAF (e.g., "finishing off wounded," Svatove bus stop), the inflated UAF casualty claims from Marochko, and especially the new, aggressive direct threats ("warm-up," "renovation," "Kyiv is getting prettier") and dehumanization ("Khokhols") from RUF milbloggers, linking them directly to RUF's escalating kinetic operations and confirmed civilian casualties, and to the 22 JUN 1941 historical pretext. CRITICALLY, this task force must immediately and aggressively debunk the new claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran," highlighting it as a transparent attempt to directly implicate Ukraine in RUF's fabricated global conflict. Identify specific RUF IO cells and their external networks globally to disrupt dissemination.
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Surge all-source ISR to the Sumy and Kharkiv axes to provide immediate warning of a major RUF ground offensive. This is the #1 intelligence priority.
3. HIGH: Increase all-source ISR on Bryansk, Kursk, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts for early warning of any large-scale RUF ground movements, ballistic missile/cruise missile/UAV launch preparations, or build-ups that might indicate a major offensive. Prioritize SIGINT for RUF C2 related to drone, cruise missile, ballistic missile, and KAB operations and targeting of UAF drone assets and UAF training grounds.
4. HIGH: Conduct immediate, detailed BDA on all confirmed impacts in Kyiv, particularly in Shevchenkivskyi, Sviatoshyn, and Podilskyi Districts, and now in Bila Tserkva and Chernihiv, to identify munition types, confirm specific targets (residential vs. military/industrial, hotel/clinic vs. military), and refine AD response and counter-targeting. This must include forensic analysis of fragments to confirm Iskander use and Lancet use. Conduct immediate BDA of the Kremenchuk and UAF training ground strikes to identify RUF targeting patterns, munition types, and intelligence vulnerabilities to inform AD and force protection posture.
5. MEDIUM: Verify RUF claims of successful UAF drone unit targeting or specific strikes on military assets (e.g., Zhuliany Patriot site, Antonov plant).
6. MEDIUM: Monitor RUF's rhetoric and any observable force movements concerning Moldova and Transnistria for potential escalations or hybrid actions.
7. MEDIUM: Verify RUF claims of breakthroughs toward Siversk and Mirnohrad and the stability of UAF defensive lines, and claims of UAF armored vehicle destruction near Novosergievka and UAF retreat near LPR, and drone strikes on UAF logistics near Krasnoarmeysk, and the new RUF MoD claim of T-80BVM tank destroying UAF stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction.
8. LOW: Assess the impact of the Belgorod Deputy Governor's arrest on RUF internal control and local administration.
9. LOW: Verify Pushilin's claim of RUF liberating all settlements in DNR where UAF counter-attacked in 2023.

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

1. URGENT: Reinforce AD assets, especially anti-ballistic (like Patriot/SAMP-T), anti-cruise missile, and counter-UAV capabilities, in all major cities and vulnerable strategic areas across Ukraine, including military objects/training grounds, particularly in areas susceptible to Iskander and Lancet strikes and KABs, and in anticipation of a potential saturation attack of up to 250 drones and ballistic/cruise missiles. Accelerate the delivery and integration of new AD systems. Prioritize additional mobile AD units for Kyiv and its approaches to counter drone, cruise missile, and ballistic missile penetration, given RUF's explicit "warm-up" and "renovation" threats and specific targeting of civilian areas. Re-posture and reinforce AD assets, particularly anti-ballistic/hypersonic missile and counter-KAB systems, to the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Poltava axes in anticipation of strikes supporting the imminent ground offensive and further targeting of strategic infrastructure.
2. HIGH: Implement immediate damage assessment and consequence management for impacts in Kyiv Oblast, Bila Tserkva, and Chernihiv, ensuring rapid repair of damaged infrastructure and support for affected civilians. Prioritize structural assessment of the affected multi-story residential building in Shevchenkivskyi District given confirmed fatalities.
3. URGENT/CRITICAL: Implement a nationwide review and upgrade of force protection protocols for all UAF training grounds, assembly areas, and critical infrastructure, emphasizing dispersion, camouflage, and deception, following the confirmed strike on a UAF training ground and the confirmed hit on KPI.
4. MEDIUM: Disperse and protect critical infrastructure in Bila Tserkva, Kryvyi Rih, Kharkiv, Poltava, Vasylkiv, Zhytomyr, and Dnipropetrovsk, preparing for anticipated drone, cruise missile, and ballistic missile attacks.
5. URGENT: Disseminate updated force protection guidance for civilians and first responders addressing the threat of cluster-type munitions with anti-personnel fragmentation.

6.3. Ground Forces:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Elevate readiness to maximum alert on the Sumy, Kharkiv, and northern Kyiv axes, particularly in response to KAB launches and increased RUF IO directly targeting Kyiv Oblast and implying large-scale escalation. Ensure strategic reserves are postured for rapid deployment to counter a large-scale RUF ground assault. Fully leverage newly constructed fortifications.
2. URGENT: Reinforce forward defensive positions and strategic reserves on the Pokrovsk direction (Donetsk Oblast) to counter persistent RUF assaults and prevent breakthroughs. Continue to reinforce defensive positions around Pokrovsk, Mirnohrad, and Siversk.
3. HIGH: Review and adapt UAF drone operations to counter RUF's demonstrated capability to target UAF drone control points. Enhance concealment, mobility, and redundancy for drone crews and equipment. Accelerate fielding of counter-drone EW systems to frontline units.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch an immediate, aggressive, and sustained, multi-domain (social media, traditional media, diplomatic channels) counter-IO campaign specifically targeting RUF's increasingly dangerous "Iran-Israel/US War" fabrication, its fabricated diplomatic statements and resolutions, attributed quotes, false operational details, and the new, highly inflammatory "regime change" narratives, including the use of manipulated media. Crucially, this campaign must expose and directly respond to RUF's new, explicit threats against Ukrainian civilians ("warm-up," "renovation"), the extreme dehumanization ("Khokhols," "Kyiv is getting prettier"), especially the new, fabricated atrocity claims against UAF ("finishing off wounded," Svatove bus stop), the vastly inflated UAF casualty claims, and the new, direct, and fabricated claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran," linking them directly to RUF's escalating kinetic operations and confirmed civilian casualties, and to the 22 JUN 1941 historical pretext. This campaign must:
   • Directly name and shame Ukrainian media outlets (e.g., РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) that are amplifying RUF disinformation, providing immediate, clear, and actionable guidance on ethical reporting during wartime and the severe consequences of aiding enemy propaganda. This requires direct intervention from the highest levels of government.
   • Forensically debunk the latest, most kinetic and diplomatic fabrications (e.g., TASS report of Trump claiming destruction of nuclear facilities, fabricated Trump "regime change" quote, manipulated NYT articles, TASS reports of IDF recording missile launches, Fordo/Hormuz claims, food security impacts, fabricated Putin/Iranian FM meeting, fabricated Russia/US contacts on Iran, fabricated IDF statements, fabricated Marco Rubio quotes, fabricated anti-war protests in NYC, and especially the "Ukrainian saboteurs in Iran" claim), providing clear evidence of their falsehood.
   • Frame Russia's actions as a deliberate, desperate attempt to create global chaos and divert attention from its war crimes and failures in Ukraine, directly linking this to Zelenskyy's warning about RUF preparing operations in Europe, the 22 JUN 1941 historical pretext, and the new aggressive rhetoric targeting Kyiv Oblast, especially the "warm-up" threat, "renovation" mockery, and dehumanization.
2. URGENT: Intensify diplomatic engagement with key international partners, particularly the US, EU, and NATO members, to share granular intelligence on RUF's escalating global IO campaign and its potential for false-flag operations or further escalation, explicitly highlighting the "regime change" elements, the use of media manipulation, the fabrication of UAF atrocities, the new, direct threats against Ukrainian civilians and the extreme dehumanization, and the new, fabricated claim of "Ukrainian saboteurs arrested in Iran," and the new fabrication of diplomatic engagements. Coordinate a unified international response to publicly denounce and debunk RUF's fabrications and warn of their escalatory intent.
3. HIGH: Develop and disseminate clear, concise public messages for civilians in Kyiv and other threatened cities on what the RUF "warm-up" and "renovation" messages mean, emphasizing that they are psychological operations designed to instill fear, and reinforcing UAF's commitment to defense. Publicly highlight damage to civilian infrastructure (e.g., Shevchenkivskyi residential building, Sviatoshyn Metro, bus stop, Bila Tserkva hotel/clinic/residential, Chernihiv village outskirts) as direct evidence of RUF war crimes and intent to terrorize, emphasizing the confirmed fatalities and wounded. Publicly confirm the hit on the KPI swimming pool as evidence of RUF targeting urban infrastructure.
4. MEDIUM: Publicly refute RUF's false casualty figures, providing verified UAF casualty data or explaining the severe methodological flaws in RUF's propaganda, to maintain public trust and counter demoralization efforts.
5. URGENT: Proactively message UAF successes, particularly the liberation of Andriyivka and successful deep strikes on RUF logistics and targets within Russia, to counter the RUF narrative of inevitable victory and demonstrate UAF's continued capability and resolve.
6. MEDIUM: Leverage UAF unit media (e.g., DSHV, 47th Mech Brig, SBU, 82nd Airmobile Brigade) to consistently demonstrate professionalism, training, and care for personnel to counter RUF dehumanization and demoralization efforts. Highlight international support for UAF capabilities (e.g., Norway drone aid, NASAMS office).

END OF REPORT