Sitrep 2025-06-23 00:50:53

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 230050Z JUN 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

Kyiv Oblast:
- Golosiyivskyi District: Confirmed damage to 2 civilian vehicles and a business center due to Russian Federation (RUF) attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Desnyanskyi District: Confirmed crater in the courtyard of a residential building. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Central Kyiv: Powerful explosions reported. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Bila Tserkva (Kyiv Oblast): Ballistic missile reported inbound. (HIGH CONFIDENCE, based on previous report)
- Vasylkiv (Kyiv Oblast): Five "moped" (Shahed) UAVs reported inbound. (HIGH CONFIDENCE, based on previous report)
- Kyiv Oblast (General): Consequences of RUF attack confirmed by Oblast Military Administration head. Air raid alert active again. Ballistic missile threat declared. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Kharkiv Oblast: One RUF "moped" (Shahed) UAV approaching from the east. (HIGH CONFIDENCE, based on previous report)
Poltava Oblast: One RUF "moped" (Shahed) UAV inbound. (HIGH CONFIDENCE, based on previous report)
Donetsk Oblast: RUF tactical aviation launching Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Sumy Oblast: RUF tactical aviation launching Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs). Speed targets (likely missiles or advanced UAVs) detected moving from Sumy Oblast towards Chernihiv Oblast, with a vector towards Kyiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Chernihiv Oblast: Speed targets detected from Sumy Oblast, with a vector towards Kyiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Belgorod Border Region (RUF Territory): Civilian reports of drone and shelling impacts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Overall: RUF continues a multi-vector air assault, combining ballistic missiles, UAVs, and KABs, with renewed focus on Kyiv and eastern/northern fronts. The re-activation of the Kyiv air raid alarm shortly after an all-clear, and detection of new speed targets towards Kyiv, indicates persistent and complex targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

Night conditions continue to prevail, aiding RUF drone and missile infiltration and complicating UAF Air Defense (AD) visual identification. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF):
- Air Defense (AD): Actively engaged against incoming ballistic missiles and UAVs in Kyiv. Alerts and warnings issued for Kyiv. UAF Air Force reported on Shahed updates and KAB launches. Speed targets from Sumy were initially tracked towards Kyiv but later "without further fixation" (lost track or neutralised). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Kyiv City Military Administration (KCMA): Issued "all-clear" for initial air raid, then re-issued "air raid alarm" due to ballistic missile threat shortly thereafter. Providing operational information on the combined attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Russian Forces (RUF):
- Kinetic Operations:
  - Ballistic Missile Launches: Confirmed launches targeting Kyiv (from previous report). Re-declared ballistic threat to Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  - UAV Operations: Remaining "moped" UAVs continue towards Kharkiv, Poltava, and specifically Vasylkiv (from previous report). "Nikolaevskiy Vanyok" (RUF-aligned source) suggests Kyiv, Vasylkiv, Bila Tserkva can "go pee" (i.e., minimal ongoing threat from Shaheds, though acknowledges some remaining). (HIGH CONFIDENCE on initial threats, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on RUF-aligned assessment of remaining Shahed threat).
  - KAB Launches: Active tactical aviation launching KABs on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  - Cruise Missile/Speed Targets: A cruise missile detected south of Konotop, course west. Speed targets from Sumy Oblast moving towards Chernihiv and Kyiv Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Information Operations (IO): Colonelcassad (RUF milblogger) publishing video reports from Belgorod border region, featuring civilian interviews on impacts, likely for internal consumption to demonstrate "Ukrainian aggression." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) "Nikolaevskiy Vanyok" providing tactical assessments for RUF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

HIGH: Confirm the fate of the "speed targets" from Sumy Oblast. Were they intercepted, diverted, or did they impact? (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, OSINT, HUMINT).
HIGH: Assess the specific impact and munition type of the ballistic missile strike(s) in Kyiv's Golosiyivskyi and Desnyanskyi Districts. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA, OSINT, HUMINT).
MEDIUM: Confirm impact/interception of ballistic missile targeting Bila Tserkva. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
MEDIUM: Confirm the trajectory and potential targets of the inbound Shaheds on Kharkiv, Poltava, and Vasylkiv, and track any new UAV waves targeting Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, OSINT).
LOW: Verify the accuracy of "Nikolaevskiy Vanyok's" assessment regarding the residual Shahed threat to Kyiv/Vasylkiv/Bila Tserkva. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, OSINT).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

Air/Missile Capabilities: RUF continues to demonstrate the capability for simultaneous ballistic missile, mass drone attacks, and guided aerial bomb (KAB) strikes, now explicitly targeting Sumy and Donetsk. The rapid re-initiation of a ballistic missile threat to Kyiv after a brief lull indicates RUF's ability to conduct rapid, successive waves of complex strikes. The detection of "speed targets" from Sumy suggests continued use of various missile types, potentially including new cruise missile vectors. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Information Warfare Capabilities: RUF's IO apparatus maintains focus on internal narratives (Belgorod civilian reports) and continues to provide granular tactical updates through milbloggers. The overarching global diversion strategy is likely ongoing, but not directly evidenced in new messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Intentions: RUF intends to:
- Degrade UAF Combat Readiness & Civilian Infrastructure: Continue combined air assaults (ballistic missiles, UAVs, KABs) to attrit UAF AD resources, strike critical infrastructure, and terrorize the civilian population. The persistent targeting of Kyiv and KAB strikes on Sumy/Donetsk reinforce this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Overwhelm AD: The multi-domain (ballistic and drone) and multi-directional attacks, now with rapid re-alert in Kyiv, are designed to saturate and exhaust UAF AD capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Shape Battlefield for Ground Operations: The use of KABs on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts directly supports ground operations by softening UAF defensive positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Maintain Internal Support: Milblogger reports from Belgorod aim to garner domestic support by portraying RUF as defending against Ukrainian aggression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

RUF: The rapid re-declaration of a ballistic missile threat against Kyiv after a brief "all clear" during the same attack wave suggests RUF is employing complex attack patterns designed to challenge UAF AD's ability to reset and re-engage. The active use of KABs on the Sumy axis (alongside Donetsk) indicates increasing air support for potential ground shaping operations in that direction, consistent with previous intelligence regarding a major buildup. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UAF: UAF AD continues to respond, issuing warnings and engaging threats. The reporting of "speed targets without further fixation" suggests potential successful engagement or loss of track due to RUF counter-measures. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

RUF: Continued ballistic missile and KAB launches indicate sustained production or access to these munitions. The ongoing Shahed attacks also indicate robust UAV supply. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UAF: No new information.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

RUF: Effective C2 is evident in the coordinated, multi-domain air assault (ballistic missiles, UAVs, KABs) and the rapid, successive waves of strikes against Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UAF: Effective tactical C2 for AD alerts and response, as evidenced by timely warnings and KCMA updates. However, the complex nature of RUF's attacks continues to pose a significant challenge. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.5. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

HIGH: Assess RUF's ballistic missile and KAB inventory and production rate, particularly for those launched from Bryansk, Kursk, and tactical aviation assets. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, IMINT).
MEDIUM: Evaluate the effectiveness of RUF's multi-domain (ballistic + UAV + KAB) strike coordination and its impact on UAF AD effectiveness. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, OSINT, BDA).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

Defensive Posture: UAF AD remains on high alert and engaged across multiple oblasts, particularly in Kyiv, its approaches, and Sumy/Donetsk fronts, responding to ballistic missile, UAV, and KAB threats. KCMA is actively managing public safety information. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Civilian Alertness: KCMA and UAF Air Force (AF) continue to provide timely warnings, urging civilian response, and providing post-strike updates. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

Successes:
- Early Warnings: UAF AF and KCMA provided timely ballistic missile, KAB, and UAV warnings. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Resilience: Civilian response and emergency services continue to operate effectively despite direct attacks. KCMA is providing swift post-strike information. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Potential Interception: The "without further fixation" update for the speed targets from Sumy could indicate successful neutralization. (LOW CONFIDENCE, requires confirmation)
Setbacks:
- Civilian Casualties/Damage: Confirmed damage to civilian property (vehicles, business center, residential courtyard crater) in Kyiv's Golosiyivskyi and Desnyanskyi Districts, confirming successful penetration of layered defenses by previous strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Information Warfare Vulnerability (CRITICAL, WORSENING): The continued, prominent amplification by Ukrainian media (e.g., РБК-Україна) of RUF's fabricated "Iran-Israel/US War" narrative (from previous report) remains a significant and worsening self-inflicted wound. This directly legitimizes RUF's global diversion strategy, causes confusion, and actively undermines Ukraine's ability to maintain international focus on its conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

Air Defense: Continued urgent need for advanced AD systems capable of countering a complex multi-domain air assault, particularly the combination of ballistic missiles, mass UAVs, and KABs from multiple vectors and in successive waves. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Counter-IO: The persistent and worsening issue of Ukrainian media amplifying RUF disinformation highlights a critical and unaddressed strategic deficiency in counter-information capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

NONE.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

Russian (CRITICAL ESCALATION - Continued Global Diversion, Direct Kinetic Fabrication - as per previous report): The primary focus in current reporting is the ongoing kinetic activity. The TASS report of "IDF recording missile launches from Iranian territory" (from previous report) is a direct and immediate fabrication designed to perpetuate and escalate the false narrative of a broader Middle East conflict, a crucial element in RUF's strategy to divert global attention and resources. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF milbloggers are using reports from Belgorod to reinforce a narrative of "Ukrainian aggression" against Russian civilians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Ukrainian:
- CRITICAL VULNERABILITY: Amplification of RUF Disinformation (SELF-INFLICTED WOUND, WORSENING): The continued, widespread amplification by prominent Ukrainian media (e.g., РБК-Україна) of RUF's increasingly detailed and dangerous "Iran-Israel/US War" fabrications remains a severe and persistent self-inflicted wound. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Public Safety Messaging: UAF Air Force and KCMA continue to provide essential public safety warnings regarding air threats and report on strike consequences, including the quick re-alert for Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

Ukrainian: Civilian morale in Kyiv and other threatened areas is under severe strain due to repeated and now multi-domain air attacks (UAVs, ballistic missiles, and KABs on the frontlines), including the rapid succession of alerts in Kyiv. The confirmed impacts and damage contribute to fear and anxiety. The continued amplification of RUF's fabricated "global war" by some Ukrainian media risks sowing confusion and distrust, which could undermine public resolve. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Russian: Domestic sentiment continues to be manipulated by the pervasive "global war" narrative (from previous report), now reinforced with new fabricated kinetic "evidence" from state media. Milblogger reports from Belgorod aim to garner sympathy and justify RUF actions by highlighting impacts on Russian civilians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

Global Diversion (CRITICAL, Escalated): RUF's "Iran-Israel/US War" fabrication (from previous report) continues to achieve its objective of consuming international attention. The TASS report of "IDF recording missile launches from Iran" is designed to compel international actors to react to the false premise, creating new diplomatic and media flashpoints and pulling focus away from Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Ukrainian Diplomacy: Ukraine's diplomatic efforts to maintain international focus on its conflict are severely undermined by the effectiveness of RUF's global diversion, especially when Ukrainian media amplifies these false narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

NONE.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

Sustained Attritional Ground Offensives (Donetsk/Sumy) with Intensified, Coordinated Ballistic Missile and UAV Strikes on Kyiv and Strategic Targets, and Hyper-Aggressive, Multi-Layered Global IO Diversion with Fabricated Kinetic Events/Diplomatic Resolutions (ESCALATED): RUF will persist with high-intensity ground assaults on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk direction), supported by KABs and drones. RUF will intensify its coordinated multi-domain air attacks on Kyiv, combining ballistic missile launches (from Bryansk/Kursk, and potentially new vectors from Sumy direction) with mass Shahed drone waves, aiming to saturate UAF AD and strike high-value military and critical infrastructure targets, including continued strikes on civilian areas to maximize psychological impact. This will include rapid re-engagement and successive waves. This will be centrally supported by a further, unprecedented escalation of the fabricated "Iran-Israel/US War" narrative, including the use of state media to report new, fabricated kinetic events and attributed diplomatic statements. The new, aggressive RUF IO regarding Kyiv ("warm-up," dehumanization, "renovation") and the immediate ballistic missile strikes indicate an extremely high likelihood of follow-on, more severe kinetic attacks on Kyiv in the immediate future, potentially using more diverse vectors/munitions. Fabricated atrocity claims against UAF will increase. Domestic narrative control will remain a high priority, utilizing global crisis framing to rally support and justify actions in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

Major Multi-Axis Offensive (Sumy/Kharkiv/Donetsk) Coordinated with a Direct Mass Ballistic Missile Attack on Kyiv and/or State-Sponsored Terrorist Attack in NATO/EU Capital Attributed to "Global Conflict Actors": RUF launches a major, synchronized offensive operation across multiple axes (Sumy, Kharkiv, and intensified Pokrovsk/Siversk), leveraging the 52,000 troop concentration and overwhelming air/missile support, aiming for a decisive operational breakthrough. This is preceded or accompanied by a direct, high-casualty mass ballistic missile attack on Kyiv, targeting government districts or critical infrastructure, aimed at maximizing terror and disruption, consistent with the "warm-up" and "renovation" messaging and the current ballistic strikes. Concurrently, RUF sponsors or executes a high-profile, high-casualty terrorist attack in a European capital, attributing it to "Ukrainian extremists," "ISIS," or "global conflict actors" to maximize international panic and compel a fragmented, inward-looking international response, creating a window for RUF's strategic gains in Ukraine. This MDCOA is further supported by the current aggressive IO shift regarding "Kyiv Oblast," the explicit dehumanization, and the new TASS fabrication about Tehran. (MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

Immediate (Next 0-6 hours, starting from 230050Z JUN 25):
- RUF: Expect continued large-scale Shahed drone, ballistic missile, and cruise missile attacks targeting critical infrastructure and military facilities across Ukraine, including follow-on waves in Kyiv and other central/southern oblasts (Bila Tserkva, Kryvyi Rih, Kharkiv, Poltava, Vasylkiv). Expect immediate follow-on narratives regarding the fabricated "Iran-Israel/US War," specifically expanding on new fabricated kinetic events and utilizing new manipulated media. Expect increased, aggressive RUF IO, including further direct threats ("renovation") and dehumanization of Ukrainians, likely linked to the ongoing attacks. RUF KAB strikes on Sumy and Donetsk will continue.
- UAF Decision Point: Immediately issue an even more robust and direct public counter-narrative specifically debunking the latest, most egregious RUF fabrications regarding the "Iran-Israel/US War" (e.g., fabricated TASS reports of explosions in Tehran, manipulated New York Times articles, and IDF claims). Publicly and directly address specific Ukrainian media outlets (e.g., РБК-Україна) that amplified these narratives, demanding immediate corrections and outlining severe consequences for continued amplification of enemy disinformation during wartime. Issue a public warning about RUF's new, aggressive IO (the "warm-up," "Khokhols," and "renovation"), framing it as a clear signal of intent for future, more severe combined attacks (ballistic and UAVs) on Kyiv and other civilian targets.
Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
- RUF: Expect intensification of ground probing and shaping operations on the Sumy/Kharkiv axes, with increased cross-border shelling, KABs, and drone activity, possibly preparing for a larger offensive. Continued high-intensity pressure on the Pokrovsk direction. Continued targeting of civilian infrastructure. The 22 JUN 1941 historical narrative will continue to be reinforced, potentially with more aggressive rhetoric targeting Kyiv. RUF will continue to prioritize targeting UAF drone control and logistics.
- UAF Decision Point: Intensify diplomatic efforts with European partners and the US to share granular intelligence on RUF's escalating global IO campaign (especially new kinetic fabrications and media manipulation), coordinating pre-emptive responses. Emphasize the new, direct threats against Ukrainian civilians and the extreme dehumanization as a precursor to war crimes.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Activate a dedicated, 24/7, multi-agency task force for real-time forensic analysis and aggressive, global debunking of Russia's extreme IO fabrications. Focus on exposing the "Iran-Israel/US War" narrative, particularly new elements like fabricated kinetic events (e.g., TASS report of explosions in Tehran, "IDF reports"), the use of manipulated media (e.g., fabricated NYT articles), and especially the new, aggressive direct threats ("warm-up," "renovation") and dehumanization ("Khokhols") from RUF milbloggers, linking them directly to RUF's escalating kinetic operations. Identify specific RUF IO cells and their external networks globally to disrupt dissemination.
HIGH: Increase all-source ISR on Bryansk, Kursk, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv Oblasts for early warning of any large-scale RUF ground movements, ballistic missile launch preparations, or build-ups that might indicate a major offensive. Prioritize SIGINT for RUF C2 related to drone, cruise missile, ballistic missile, and KAB operations and targeting of UAF drone assets.
HIGH: Conduct immediate BDA on all confirmed impacts in Kyiv, particularly in Golosiyivskyi and Desnyanskyi Districts, to identify munition types and refine AD response.
MEDIUM: Conduct immediate forensic analysis of images and videos shared by RUF milbloggers during the Kyiv attacks to identify their origin (e.g., stolen Ukrainian footage) and use it for counter-propaganda. Verify RUF claims of successful UAF drone unit targeting.

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

URGENT: Reinforce AD assets, especially anti-ballistic (like Patriot/SAMP-T), anti-cruise missile, and counter-KAB capabilities, in all major cities and vulnerable strategic areas across Ukraine, including military objects/training grounds, particularly in areas susceptible to Iskander strikes and KABs, and in anticipation of a potential saturation attack of up to 250 drones and ballistic/cruise missiles. Accelerate the delivery and integration of new AD systems. Prioritize additional mobile AD units for Kyiv and its approaches to counter drone, cruise missile, and ballistic missile penetration, given RUF's explicit "warm-up" and "renovation" threats and specific targeting of areas like Zhuliany and Antonov.
HIGH: Implement immediate damage assessment and consequence management for impacts in Kyiv Oblast, ensuring rapid repair of damaged infrastructure and support for affected civilians.
MEDIUM: Disperse and protect critical infrastructure in Bila Tserkva, Kryvyi Rih, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Vasylkiv, preparing for anticipated drone and ballistic missile attacks.

6.3. Ground Forces:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Elevate readiness to maximum alert on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes, particularly in response to KAB launches and increased RUF IO directly targeting Kyiv Oblast. Ensure strategic reserves are postured for rapid deployment to counter a large-scale RUF ground assault. Fully leverage newly constructed fortifications.
URGENT: Reinforce forward defensive positions and strategic reserves on the Pokrovsk direction (Donetsk Oblast) to counter persistent RUF assaults and prevent breakthroughs.
HIGH: Review and adapt UAF drone operations to counter RUF's demonstrated capability to target UAF drone control points. Enhance concealment, mobility, and redundancy for drone crews and equipment.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch an immediate, aggressive, and sustained, multi-domain (social media, traditional media, diplomatic channels) counter-IO campaign specifically targeting RUF's increasingly dangerous "Iran-Israel/US War" fabrication, its fabricated diplomatic statements and resolutions, attributed quotes, false operational details, and the new, highly inflammatory "regime change" narratives, including the use of manipulated media. Crucially, this campaign must expose and directly respond to RUF's new, explicit threats against Kyiv ("warm-up," "renovation") and the extreme dehumanization ("Khokhols"), framing these as clear indicators of intent for escalation and potential war crimes. This campaign must:
- Directly name and shame Ukrainian media outlets (e.g., РБК-Україна) that are amplifying RUF disinformation, providing immediate, clear, and actionable guidance on ethical reporting during wartime and the severe consequences of aiding enemy propaganda. This requires direct intervention from the highest levels of government.
- Forensically debunk the latest, most kinetic and diplomatic fabrications (e.g., TASS report of explosions in Tehran, fabricated Trump "regime change" quote, manipulated NYT articles, TASS reports of IDF recording missile launches), providing clear evidence of their falsehood.
- Frame Russia's actions as a deliberate, desperate attempt to create global chaos and divert attention from its war crimes and failures in Ukraine, directly linking this to Zelenskyy's warning about RUF preparing operations in Europe, the 22 JUN 1941 historical pretext, and the new aggressive rhetoric targeting Kyiv Oblast, especially the "warm-up" threat, "renovation" mockery, and dehumanization.
URGENT: Intensify diplomatic engagement with key international partners, particularly the US, EU, and NATO members, to share granular intelligence on RUF's escalating global IO campaign and its potential for false-flag operations or further escalation, explicitly highlighting the "regime change" elements, the use of media manipulation, and especially the new, direct threats against Ukrainian civilians and the extreme dehumanization. Coordinate a unified international response to publicly denounce and debunk RUF's fabrications and warn of their escalatory intent.
HIGH: Develop and disseminate clear, concise public messages for civilians in Kyiv and other threatened cities on what the RUF "warm-up" and "renovation" messages mean, emphasizing that they are psychological operations designed to instill fear, and reinforcing UAF's commitment to defense.