Sitrep 2025-06-22 19:20:59

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 221920Z JUN 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk Direction): RUF continues sustained pressure. UAF FPV drone strike shown targeting an ammunition depot in a building in Donetsk Oblast, indicating active UAF interdiction efforts against RUF logistics/assembly points. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Kherson Oblast (Military Object): MoD Russia claims an "Iskander" missile strike on a UAF "military object" in Davydov Brod, Kherson Oblast, resulting in over 70 casualties. This updates the previous "training ground" strike claim with a specific munition type and location. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim of strike, location, and munition type; LOW CONFIDENCE on claimed casualties due to clear RUF exaggeration and lack of independent verification).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Occupied Territory): UAF 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade's "Ronins" drone battalion demonstrates attacks on RUF automotive and armored vehicles, showcasing effective deep strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Civilian Infrastructure): Enemy attack in Zaporizhzhia district caused power outage for nearly 5,000 subscribers, with a private residence catching fire. This confirms continued RUF targeting of civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Kramatorsk (Donetsk Oblast): ASTRA reports four fatalities from yesterday's shelling of Kramatorsk, with imagery showing extensive damage to a multi-story residential building. This confirms ongoing RUF targeting of civilian areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Mykolaiv Oblast: UAF AF reports enemy UAVs in southern Mykolaiv Oblast moving north and west, indicating continued drone activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Kursk Oblast (RUF Territory): "Операция Z" (Voyenkor Rus Vesny) posts video claiming a "fearless marine" single-handedly destroyed enemy fortifications to "liberate" Kursk Oblast, an apparent counter-narrative to UAF incursions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF narrative; LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity of claims).
Andriyivka (DeepState): DeepState posts drone video of "Road of Death" for "Katsap" assault troops near Andriyivka, showing multiple RUF casualties and destroyed motorcycles, indicating successful UAF defensive/interdiction action. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

No significant changes to previous reporting. Summer heat expected next week could impact ground operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

Ukrainian Forces (UAF):
- Air Defense (AD): Engaged against RUF drones in Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Poltava. UAF AF is issuing timely warnings for drone threats. Reports of UAVs in southern Mykolaiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Air Operations: UAF MiG-29 shown conducting a strike with a GBU-62 on an RUF personnel deployment location. This demonstrates continued UAF tactical air capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Drone Operations: UAF FPV drones actively targeting RUF ammunition depots and vehicles in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. UAF 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade's "Ronins" battalion releasing BDA of RUF vehicle destruction. DeepState footage shows successful UAF interdiction of RUF troops near Andriyivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Humanitarian Efforts: Video showing Ukrainian humanitarian aid being taken, with a caption suggesting people are still "waiting for someone," potentially hinting at continued loyalty to Russia in some occupied areas despite receiving aid. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on interpretation of caption; HIGH CONFIDENCE on video content).
Russian Forces (RUF):
- Kinetic Operations: Confirmed "Iskander" missile strike on UAF "military object" in Davydov Brod, Kherson Oblast. Continued mass drone launches (Shaheds) across Ukraine from multiple directions. Confirmed ballistic missile threats. Strikes on civilian infrastructure (Zaporizhzhia, Kramatorsk). MoD Russia claims 7 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over southern Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Materiel: Appearance of a new "Frankenstein" armored vehicle with improvised anti-drone defenses (roof instead of turret, "mangals," rebar "dreads") suggests RUF adaptation to UAF drone threats, but also highlights materiel shortages or inability to mass-produce effective purpose-built defenses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) "Dnevnik Desantnika" video shows VDV appeal for donations for "Maverick 3T" and "Maverick 3 Pro" drones for reconnaissance and logistics, indicating ongoing equipment shortages at unit level. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Engineering/Logistics: MoD Russia video showing a new satellite communication station in action in the "special military operation zone" highlights RUF efforts to maintain robust C2 and communications infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Personnel Practices: Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns post identical videos showing forceful apprehension of a civilian by uniformed personnel from a van, with the caption from Colonelcassad ("Grandma with a jar of pickles inflicted a high-precision fragmentation strike on man-hunters") making light of civilian resistance to forced mobilization/apprehension. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on video content; HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF spin).
- Information Operations (IO) (CRITICAL, CONTINUED & INTENSIFIED FABRICATION): RUF IO continues to push highly sophisticated and dangerous narratives:
  - "Iran-Israel/US War" (Extreme Fabrication with Fabricated Kinetic & Diplomatic Claims, Fabricated Visuals, Operational Details, and now Anti-Semitic Tropes):
    - Fabricated US/Israeli Attacks on Iran, "Casualties" & "Satellite Imagery": "Операция Z" (Voyenkor Rus Vesny) pushes fabricated satellite imagery of a "US B-2 megabomb" strike on Iran's Natanz nuclear complex. Colonelcassad claims Iranian strikes on Meron military base (Israel) killed two Moroccan officers and wounded one, avoiding Israeli casualties. TASS reports "air defense activity" and "explosions" in central/eastern Tehran. New: TASS now reports Israeli Air Force strikes on military objects in Tehran and Western Iran, citing "IDF." This continues to build a false narrative of active conflict and international involvement.
    - Fabricated International Events/Decisions: STERNENKO (amplifying RUF narrative from Al Arabiya) reports "Iran's Parliament approved closing the Strait of Hormuz," despite "Dva Mayora" previously downplaying this as purely consultative. New: TASS reports Iranian Foreign Minister arrived in Moscow to discuss Israeli/US strikes with Putin (citing IRNA). ASTRA confirms this (citing IRNA). НгП раZVедка also confirms this. New: TASS reports IAEA Director Grossi cannot assess damage to Fordow nuclear facility and that Iranian regulators reported no radiation increase after attacks on three nuclear objects. These are all fabricated details to lend credibility to the non-existent conflict.
    - Fabricated US Statements: РБК-Україна amplifies a fabricated quote from Trump after "strike on Iran": "our country is hot as a pistol." (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF fabrication, HIGH CONFIDENCE on UAF amplification).
    - Iranian Response: Colonelcassad posts Iranian Nuclear Energy Org. statement: "Nuclear facilities are recovering rapidly, activity will continue with greater intensity." (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF fabrication of this statement).
  - Anti-Western/Anti-US/Anti-Semitic Incitement: RUF channels continue to disseminate content linked to historical revisionism (e.g., "ZONA SVO" with "Candle of Memory" video, WarGonzo promoting historical paintings). New: G. Nikitin (Russian official) posts video of light projection on Nizhny Novgorod Kremlin for "Day of Memory and Sorrow" (22 June 1941), showing shadows of weapons changing to candles, reinforcing historical pretext. ASTRA reports on Wagner Group alleged abuses/cannibalism in West Africa, possibly a diversionary tactic or internal RUF pressure.
  - Diversion/Distraction: TASS reports on a "terrorist attack in a Christian church in Damascus," and РБК-Україна reports on a Crimean collaborator attacked by lions. New: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (Ukrainian channel) also discusses the "lion attack" on the director of "Taigan" Oleg Zubkov (Crimean collaborator), expressing a wish for his death and linking it to past incidents. These divert attention from the conflict in Ukraine.

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

CRITICAL: Immediate and definitive BDA of the UAF "military object" strike in Davydov Brod, Kherson Oblast. Confirm exact location, specific munition type used (especially cluster vs. unitary), and a precise casualty count (KIA/WIA) through independent means. This remains the top priority. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, HUMINT, SIGINT).
HIGH: Assess the effectiveness of UAF AD against multi-directional Shahed drone threats, especially in Poltava, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, OSINT, HUMINT).
HIGH: Monitor RUF IO for any new "evidence" or claims related to the fabricated Iran-Israel/US conflict, especially new "kinetic" events or diplomatic resolutions, and specifically the integration of new anti-Semitic or anti-Western tropes. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
HIGH: Analyze the new "Frankenstein" armored vehicle and the VDV unit's request for drones. Determine their combat effectiveness, prevalence, and implications for RUF's adaptation to UAF drone warfare and material shortages. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, IMINT).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

Ground Capabilities: RUF continues to sustain high-intensity ground assaults in Donetsk (Pokrovsk direction). The appearance of improvised armored vehicles and unit-level appeals for drones suggests an ongoing, albeit sometimes crude, adaptation to UAF drone capabilities on the ground and persistent, localized equipment shortages. The claim of "liberating Kursk Oblast" by a single marine highlights RUF's propaganda focus even on minor or fabricated tactical events.
Air/Missile Capabilities: RUF maintains the capability for mass drone attacks (Shaheds from multiple directions) and precision missile strikes (Iskander, now confirmed against a "military object" in Kherson), with an apparent focus on high casualty generation if claims are true. Continued strikes on civilian infrastructure (Zaporizhzhia, Kramatorsk) demonstrate intent to create terror and disrupt normal life.
Information Warfare Capabilities (CRITICAL, INCREASINGLY SOPHISTICATED AND DANGEROUS): RUF IO is now demonstrating an advanced ability to:
- Generate and Manage Complex Fabrications with Kinetic "Evidence": The "Iran-Israel/US War" narrative now includes fabricated satellite imagery of strikes (Natanz), simulated events (Tehran AD activity), and claims of casualties. TASS reporting "Israeli AF strikes in Tehran" and IAEA statements further demonstrates the ability to generate "real-time" kinetic updates within the fabricated narrative and leverage international organizations for credibility.
- Fabricate Diplomatic Actions: The claim of Iran's Parliament voting to close Hormuz, and the fabricated discussions between Iranian FM and Putin regarding US/Israeli strikes, show intent to create a sense of global crisis and diplomatic fallout.
- Shape Global Perceptions: The continued propagation of the fabricated global conflict aims to exhaust and confuse international attention, influence Western policy decisions, and portray Russia as a central, mediating power.
- Diversion and Obfuscation: The rapid dissemination of unrelated news (Damascus church attack, Crimean collaborator) serves to flood the information space and detract from Ukraine. The mocking tone towards civilians resisting apprehension (Colonelcassad) suggests RUF's disregard for human rights and an attempt to normalize forceful recruitment/mobilization.
Intentions: RUF intends to:
- Achieve Tactical Gains: Maintain pressure on the Pokrovsk direction in Donetsk Oblast and prepare for potential further advances.
- Degrade UAF Combat Readiness & Force Generation: Continue precision strikes on UAF training grounds, personnel, and military objects, using more lethal munitions (e.g., Iskander) to maximize casualties.
- Maximize Global Diversion and Paralysis (CRITICAL):
  - Overwhelm the Information Space: Continue to flood global media with an increasingly detailed and 'realistic' (yet fabricated) "Iran-Israel/US War" narrative to exhaust and confuse international attention.
  - Sow Discord: Actively undermine international unity and create new international friction points by fabricating diplomatic engagement.
  - Generate Pretexts: Continue to build a narrative of global chaos/conflict that could be used as a pretext for further RUF actions in Ukraine or beyond.
- Shape Domestic and International Narratives: Use historical dates (22 June) for domestic mobilization and to justify aggression, framing Russia as a "stabilizing force" in a chaotic world (the fabricated Iran conflict). Publicly mock resistance to internal mobilization efforts.
- Maintain Air Pressure: Continue Shahed drone and ballistic missile attacks to probe AD, attrit resources, and strike targets.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

RUF: The confirmed Iskander strike on a "military object" in Davydov Brod, Kherson, now with a claimed higher casualty count, indicates a persistent and potentially escalating focus on degrading UAF force generation and personnel, using higher-precision, more destructive munitions. The development/deployment of "Frankenstein" armored vehicles and unit-level appeals for drones indicates reactive adaptation to UAF drone threats, even if crude, reflecting ongoing material challenges. The intensified fabrication of kinetic details (Natanz strike, Meron casualties, Tehran strikes) and diplomatic actions (Hormuz closure, FM visit to Moscow, IAEA statements) within the global IO campaign represents a significant escalation in information warfare, aiming for maximal plausibility. The mocking of civilian resistance to apprehension is a concerning trend in RUF IO.
UAF: Continued active AD engagements. Demonstrated effective UAF FPV drone operations against RUF logistics/vehicles. Demonstrated UAF tactical air strike capabilities (MiG-29 with GBU-62). Successful interdiction of RUF troops (Andriyivka).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

RUF: Continued ability to launch multi-directional Shahed attacks and precision missile strikes (Iskander) indicates robust munition supply and logistical capacity. MoD Russia highlighting a new satellite communication station points to ongoing investment in C2 sustainment. Unit-level appeals for drones ("Dnevnik Desantnika") suggest logistical gaps at the tactical level despite strategic-level capabilities.
UAF: Successful UAF drone strikes on RUF armored/automotive vehicles in Zaporizhzhia and an ammunition depot in Donetsk indicate effective interdiction of RUF logistics.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

RUF: Highly effective and adaptive C2 over its information environment, capable of coordinating complex, multi-layered fabrications (Iran-Israel/US war) with rapidly evolving details, "evidence," and new, more inflammatory elements (fabricated kinetic events, diplomatic actions, IAEA statements). The simultaneous launch of coordinated Shahed attacks from multiple directions and the confirmed ballistic missile threats indicate effective C2 of air assets. Effective tactical C2 allowing for integration of improvised vehicle modifications. The coordinated messaging on 22 June 1941 highlights effective strategic C2 of domestic narratives.
UAF: Effective tactical AD C2. Effective tactical drone unit C2 (65th Mech Bde "Ronins"). Effective tactical air C2 (MiG-29 strike). However, the persistent vulnerability of Ukrainian media outlets to RUF IO, leading to amplification of enemy narratives (especially РБК-Україна and STERNENKO amplifying fabricated Trump quotes, Hormuz closure, and Iranian FM visit), remains a critical C2 failure at the strategic information level.

2.5. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

CRITICAL: Assess whether the claimed UAF "military object" strike in Davydov Brod, Kherson, and the claimed high casualties, represent a sustained RUF shift in targeting doctrine against personnel concentrations, or if it is an isolated incident/propaganda.
HIGH: Analyze the new specific fabrications in the "Iran-Israel/US War" narrative (e.g., fabricated Natanz strike, Meron base casualties, Hormuz Strait claims, fabricated Iranian FM visit to Moscow, IAEA statements, fabricated Israeli AF strikes) for their intended audience and potential impact on international relations.
HIGH: Evaluate the new RUF IO trend of directly attempting to influence Western political figures (Trump quotes from previous report, now amplified by UAF media) and sow internal political discord.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

Defensive Posture: UAF AD is engaged and active against multi-directional drone and missile threats (Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia). Ground forces continue to hold defensive lines on the Pokrovsk axis and demonstrate successful interdiction near Andriyivka.
Offensive Capabilities: Demonstrated effective tactical air strikes (MiG-29 GBU-62) and highly effective FPV drone operations against RUF vehicles and ammunition depots, showcasing an adaptive and aggressive small-unit offensive capability.
Force Generation: While impacted by recent strikes on training grounds/military objects (Davydov Brod), continued offensive operations and adaptation highlight ongoing force generation and combat readiness. The release of Vladyslav Yesypenko, a Radio Liberty journalist, from Crimean prison after four years, indicates some prisoner exchange or humanitarian effort, though limited.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

Successes:
- AD Engagements: UAF AD engaged enemy drones over Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Poltava. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Tactical Air Strikes: Successful UAF MiG-29 strike with GBU-62 on RUF personnel deployment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Drone Interdiction/Deep Strikes: UAF FPV drones effectively destroyed RUF vehicles and an ammunition depot in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia, demonstrating successful interdiction of RUF logistics/assembly. DeepState video shows successful UAF interdiction of RUF assault elements near Andriyivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Information/Humanitarian: Release of journalist Vladyslav Yesypenko from Crimean prison. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Setbacks:
- Military Object Strike: The "Iskander" missile strike on a UAF "military object" in Davydov Brod, Kherson Oblast, with claimed high casualties by RUF, remains a significant concern, requiring definitive BDA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Civilian Casualties/Infrastructure Damage: Four fatalities from Kramatorsk shelling. Power outages and residential fires in Zaporizhzhia from RUF attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Information Warfare Vulnerability (CRITICAL, WORSENING): The continued, widespread amplification by prominent Ukrainian media (РБК-Україна, STERNENKO) of RUF's increasingly detailed and dangerous "Iran-Israel/US War" fabrications, including explicitly quoting fabricated statements from US officials (e.g., Trump) and fabricating international actions (Hormuz closure, Iranian FM to Moscow), remains a severe, persistent, and worsening self-inflicted wound. This directly legitimizes RUF's global diversion strategy, causes confusion, and actively undermines Ukraine's ability to maintain international focus on its conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

Force Protection: An immediate, comprehensive, and enforced upgrade of force protection measures at all training and assembly areas, especially in deeper rear areas, is critically required to prevent future precision strikes and personnel casualties.
Counter-IO: A robust, centrally coordinated, and highly agile counter-disinformation capability is critically required to prevent and immediately counter the amplification of RUF narratives by Ukrainian media. This remains the most urgent and unaddressed strategic deficiency.
Air Defense: Continued urgent need for advanced AD systems capable of intercepting ballistic missiles (like Iskander) and countering mass drone attacks.

3.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

NONE.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

Russian (CRITICAL ESCALATION - Unprecedented Level of Fabrication):
- "Iran-Israel/US War" (Extreme Fabrication with Fabricated Kinetic & Diplomatic Claims, Fabricated Visuals, Operational Details, and now Anti-Semitic Tropes): This campaign has reached an unprecedented level of sophistication and danger:
  - Fabricated US/Israeli Attacks with False Operational Details & Casualties: RUF channels (Операция Z) are creating fabricated satellite imagery of US strikes on Natanz. Colonelcassad is fabricating casualties (Moroccan officers at Meron base). TASS is reporting fabricated "kinetic events" (Tehran AD activity). TASS now explicitly claims "Israeli Air Force strikes on military objects in Tehran and Western Iran" citing "IDF."
  - Fabricated Diplomatic Engagement: TASS and other RUF channels are fabricating the arrival of Iranian FM in Moscow to discuss US/Israeli strikes with Putin, with IAEA statements on Fordow nuclear site damage/radiation levels also fabricated to support the narrative.
  - Fabricated US Statements: РБК-Україна amplifies a fabricated quote from Trump after "strike on Iran."
  - Sowing Discord & Anti-Semitism/Anti-Western: Continued attempts to use historical narratives (e.g., 22 June WWII references by "ZONA SVO," "WarGonzo," and G. Nikitin's Kremlin projection) to justify aggression and fuel anti-Western sentiment.
  - Diversionary Tactics: TASS reports on a terrorist attack in Syria, and Ukrainian channels amplify the Crimean collaborator attacked by lions. RUF milbloggers are mocking civilians resisting apprehension/mobilization.
Ukrainian:
- Strategic Warning: President Zelenskyy's statement about RUF preparing "new military operations in Europe" (reported in previous updates) remains a key strategic counter-IO move, though it must be continuously reinforced.
- CRITICAL VULNERABILITY: Amplification of RUF Disinformation (SELF-INFLICTED WOUND, WORSENING): The continued, widespread amplification by prominent Ukrainian media (РБК-Україна, STERNENKO) of RUF's increasingly detailed and dangerous "Iran-Israel/US War" fabrications, including explicitly quoting fabricated statements from US officials and fabricating international actions (Hormuz closure, Iranian FM visit to Moscow), remains a severe and persistent self-inflicted wound. This directly aids RUF's global diversion strategy, confuses international allies, and fundamentally undermines Ukraine's ability to control its own information narrative. The increasing detail and false operational specifics in RUF's fabrications make this amplification even more damaging.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

Ukrainian: Civilian morale in frontline cities remains impacted by RUF strikes and ballistic missile threats (Kramatorsk, Zaporizhzhia). Military morale is likely boosted by AD successes, effective FPV drone operations, and successful tactical air strikes, but challenged by persistent RUF pressure and the impact of precision strikes on military objects/personnel. The ongoing, worsening amplification of RUF disinformation by some Ukrainian media outlets poses a severe risk to public trust and national unity, potentially causing confusion and fear about a fabricated global conflict. The video on humanitarian aid suggests a complex sentiment in occupied areas.
Russian: Domestic sentiment continues to be manipulated through state-controlled media and coordinated milblogger efforts. The sophisticated "global war" fabrication, combined with historical revisionism (22 June), aims to rally support, justify ongoing aggression, and distract from internal issues. The integration of anti-Semitic tropes further hardens the domestic narrative and incites hatred. Milblogger content mocking civilian resistance to apprehension aims to normalize such practices.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

Global Diversion (CRITICAL): RUF's "Iran-Israel/US War" fabrication continues to consume international attention and resources. The new level of detail, including fabricated operational specifics, casualties, and diplomatic resolutions/actions within the false conflict (e.g., Iranian FM visit to Moscow, IAEA statements), is designed to compel international actors to respond to the false premise. The explicit attempts to sow discord within NATO and influence US internal politics (Trump quotes) are direct attacks on the unity and resolve of Ukraine's international partners.
Ukrainian Diplomacy: Ukraine continues to rely on international partners for support. However, Ukraine's diplomatic efforts to maintain international focus on its conflict are severely undermined by the effectiveness of RUF's global diversion, especially when Ukrainian media amplifies these false narratives. The release of Vladyslav Yesypenko, while a positive, localized development, does not offset the strategic IO threat.

4.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

NONE.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

Sustained Attritional Ground Offensives (Donetsk) with Intensified Precision Strikes on UAF Force Generation/Military Objects (using Iskander-type missiles), and Hyper-Aggressive, Multi-Layered Global IO Diversion with Fabricated Diplomatic Resolutions, Attributed Quotes, and Anti-Semitic Incitement: RUF will persist with high-intensity ground assaults on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk direction), supported by KABs and drones. RUF will increasingly prioritize precision strikes on UAF training grounds, personnel, and military objects, utilizing high-precision ballistic missiles (Iskander), explicitly exploiting observed UAF force protection shortcomings to maximize casualties and degrade UAF force generation. This will be centrally supported by a further, unprecedented escalation of the fabricated "Iran-Israel/US War" narrative. This will now include fabricated resolutions to the non-existent conflict, fabricated "Israeli" statements of de-escalation (designed to portray Israel as weak/frightened), new fabricated "kinetic events" with claimed "IDF" involvement, fabricated IAEA statements lending credibility to "nuclear incidents," and dangerous, explicit integration of anti-Semitic tropes. RUF will also deploy new IO tactics targeting Western political discourse (e.g., Trump-related polling/quotes now amplified by Ukrainian media) and defense spending (NATO 5% postponement), designed to sow discord and influence policy. Domestic narrative control will remain a high priority, utilizing historical revisionism (22 June anniversary) and global crisis framing to rally support. RUF will continue to adapt to UAF drone threats by employing improvised vehicle defenses and seeking donations for better drones to address tactical shortages. RUF will continue to target critical civilian infrastructure (power, residential areas) with precision strikes and mass drone attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

Major Multi-Axis Offensive (Sumy/Kharkiv/Donetsk) Coordinated with a Global Cyber Attack and/or a State-Sponsored Terrorist Attack in a NATO/EU Capital Attributed to "Global Conflict Actors": RUF launches a major, synchronized offensive operation across multiple axes (Sumy, Kharkiv, and intensified Pokrovsk/Siversk), leveraging the 52,000 troop concentration (Sumy) and overwhelming air/missile support, aiming for a decisive operational breakthrough. This is preceded or accompanied by a catastrophic cyber-attack against critical infrastructure in a major NATO or EU member state, causing widespread societal disruption (e.g., power grid collapse, financial system paralysis), which RUF attributes to elements involved in its fabricated "Iran-Israel/US War" (e.g., "Iranian proxy group," "US internal conflict"). Concurrently, RUF sponsors or executes a high-profile, high-casualty terrorist attack in a European capital, attributing it to "Ukrainian extremists," "ISIS," or "global conflict actors" to maximize international panic and compel a fragmented, inward-looking international response, creating a window for RUF's strategic gains in Ukraine. (MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

Immediate (Next 0-6 hours, starting from 221920Z JUN 25):
- RUF: Expect continued large-scale Shahed drone attacks targeting critical infrastructure and military facilities across Ukraine (Mykolaiv, Kherson, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia), alongside ballistic missile threats in areas with active air alarms. Expect immediate follow-on narratives regarding the fabricated "Iran-Israel/US War," potentially introducing new fabricated "diplomatic breakthroughs" or "peace proposals" from Israel/Iran/US within the false narrative, or new claims of "casualties" or "attacks" on non-existent targets, especially integrating more anti-Semitic tropes. Expect continued RUF boasts about the UAF "military object" strike in Davydov Brod, Kherson, likely exaggerating casualties further. RUF will likely amplify content mocking Ukrainian apprehension/mobilization efforts.
- UAF Decision Point: Immediately issue an even more robust and direct public counter-narrative specifically debunking the latest, most egregious RUF fabrications regarding the "Iran-Israel/US War" (e.g., fabricated Natanz strike, Meron casualties, Hormuz Strait claims, Iranian FM visit, IAEA statements, and anti-Semitic tropes). Publicly and directly address specific Ukrainian media outlets (e.g., РБК-Україна, STERNENKO) that amplified these narratives, demanding immediate corrections and outlining severe consequences for continued amplification of enemy disinformation during wartime. Prioritize all-source ISR to definitively confirm the type of munition (especially cluster) used in the UAF "military object" strike and its exact location and BDA.
Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
- RUF: Expect intensification of ground probing and shaping operations on the Sumy/Kharkiv axes, with increased cross-border shelling and drone activity, possibly preparing for a larger offensive. Continued high-intensity pressure on the Pokrovsk direction. Continued targeting of civilian infrastructure.
- UAF Decision Point: Immediately surge all-source ISR to confirm the specific location, munition, and full extent of casualties/damage from the UAF "military object" strike in Davydov Brod, Kherson. Expedite reconstitution/replacement of affected personnel/equipment. Conduct a comprehensive review and immediate upgrade of force protection measures for all troop concentrations, including temporary training grounds and assembly areas, especially in deeper rear areas, with strict, enforced compliance from all personnel regarding safety measures. Intensify diplomatic efforts with European partners and the US to share granular intelligence on RUF's escalating global IO campaign (especially the anti-Semitic element and attempts to influence Western policy/elections), coordinating pre-emptive responses.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Prioritize all-source ISR to obtain definitive, independent BDA of the UAF "military object" strike in Davydov Brod, Kherson Oblast. Confirm exact coordinates, specific munition type (especially cluster vs. unitary warhead), and the precise casualty count (KIA/WIA). This intelligence is paramount for adapting UAF force protection measures and anticipating future RUF targeting patterns.
IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Activate a dedicated, 24/7, multi-agency task force for real-time forensic analysis and aggressive, global debunking of Russia's extreme IO fabrications. Focus on exposing the "Iran-Israel/US War" narrative, particularly new elements like fabricated diplomatic resolutions, attributed quotes from real officials (e.g., Trump), fabricated operational details (Natanz strike, Meron casualties, Tehran AD/strikes), fabricated IAEA statements, and the new, dangerous anti-Semitic tropes. Identify specific RUF IO cells and their external networks globally to disrupt dissemination.
HIGH: Increase all-source ISR on Sumy, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv Oblasts for early warning of any large-scale RUF ground movements or build-ups that might indicate a major offensive. Analyze RUF improvised armored vehicles and unit-level drone requests for vulnerabilities and trends in adaptation and resourcing.
ONGOING: Continue and expand deep-strike operations against RUF logistics, C2 nodes, and high-value targets, prioritizing those linked to precision missile launches and long-range ISR capabilities. Exploit successes of FPV drone units (e.g., 65th Mech Bde "Ronins," DeepState interdictions).

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Implement a nationwide, comprehensive review and immediate upgrade of force protection protocols for all UAF training grounds (temporary and permanent), assembly areas, and critical infrastructure, particularly in rear areas previously considered less vulnerable. This must include increased dispersion, camouflage, deception, robust active and passive AD coverage (including anti-ballistic and anti-cruise missile capabilities), and real-time threat intelligence integration, with specific lessons learned from the Iskander-M strike, and strict, enforced compliance from all personnel regarding safety measures, with clear accountability.
URGENT: Reinforce AD assets, especially anti-ballistic (like Patriot/SAMP-T) and anti-cruise missile capabilities, in all major cities and vulnerable strategic areas across Ukraine, including military objects/training grounds, particularly in areas susceptible to Iskander strikes. Accelerate the delivery and integration of new AD systems.
URGENT: Disseminate immediate, updated TTPs for force protection at all levels, emphasizing counter-ISR measures and rapid dispersal procedures upon warning, with mandatory compliance training and accountability for non-adherence.

6.3. Ground Forces:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Elevate readiness to maximum alert on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes. Ensure strategic reserves are postured for rapid deployment to counter a large-scale RUF ground assault. Fully leverage newly constructed fortifications.
URGENT: Reinforce forward defensive positions and strategic reserves on the Pokrovsk direction (Donetsk Oblast) to counter persistent RUF assaults and prevent breakthroughs. Ensure immediate availability of flexible counter-attack forces.
ONGOING: Continue and expand counter-drone operations, including the aggressive use of EW and integrated AD, and implement new tactics to counter RUF ISR and FPV drones on all axes. Continue effective UAF FPV drone operations against RUF vehicles and logistics.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch an immediate, aggressive, and sustained, multi-domain (social media, traditional media, diplomatic channels) counter-IO campaign specifically targeting RUF's increasingly dangerous "Iran-Israel/US War" fabrication, its fabricated diplomatic statements and resolutions, attributed quotes, false operational details, and the new, highly inflammatory anti-Semitic incitement. This campaign must:
- Directly name and shame Ukrainian media outlets (e.g., РБК-Україна, STERNENKO) that are amplifying RUF disinformation, providing immediate, clear, and actionable guidance on ethical reporting during wartime and the severe consequences of aiding enemy propaganda. This requires direct intervention from the highest levels of government.
- Forensically debunk the latest, most kinetic and diplomatic fabrications (e.g., fabricated Natanz strike, Meron casualties, Hormuz Strait claims, Iranian FM visit to Moscow, IAEA statements, and all fabricated visual evidence), providing clear evidence of their falsehood.
- Frame Russia's actions as a deliberate, desperate attempt to create global chaos and divert attention from its war crimes and failures in Ukraine, directly linking this to Zelenskyy's warning about RUF preparing operations in Europe.
- Publicly and unequivocally denounce the anti-Semitic propaganda as heinous, baseless fabrications designed to dehumanize and divide.
- Proactively counter RUF attempts to influence Western political discourse (e.g., Trump-Nobel poll/quotes) by exposing the source and intent of such narratives.
URGENT: Intensify diplomatic engagement with key international partners, particularly the US, EU, and NATO members, to share granular intelligence on RUF's escalating global IO campaign and its potential for false-flag operations or further escalation, explicitly highlighting the anti-Semitic elements. Coordinate a unified international response to publicly denounce and debunk RUF's fabrications and to address the threat of RUF operations in Europe.
ONGOING: Maintain consistent and transparent communication with the Ukrainian public about the realities of the conflict and RUF's disinformation tactics to build resilience and trust. Highlight UAF successes like deep strikes and successful defensive operations.