Sitrep 2025-06-22 17:00:51

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 221700Z JUN 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

Donetsk Oblast (Kramatorsk): Confirmed 4 KIA from RUF missile strike on residential building. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmiyske Direction): RUF milblogger "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" states "preparing for work" in the Krasnoarmiyske direction (Pokrovsk), indicating continued RUF intent to advance and high operational tempo in this critical sector. This aligns with previous reports of intense RUF pressure on this axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Donetsk Oblast (Yalta): MoD Russia claims "Vostok Group's FPV drone teams hit UAV command posts of the enemy close to Yalta (Donetsk People’s Republic)." This indicates RUF counter-UAV and drone strike operations in the DPR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on effectiveness).
Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk, Pokrovsk Directions): UAF drone operators from the "Хижак" brigade (Patrol Police Department) report successful engagements against RUF assault groups in these directions, including FPV strikes and precision munition drops. This indicates active UAF defensive operations and effective drone utilization in these sectors. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Donetsk Oblast (Konstantinivka Direction): Colonelcassad (RUF milblogger) is collecting for a quadcopter for an artillery group in this direction, implying RUF reconnaissance and fire support operations here. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Donetsk Oblast (Perebudova): TASS (RUF state media) reports RUF forces "crossed the river near Perebudova DPR and are consolidating southwest of the village," claiming further RUF territorial gain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on consolidation). This directly contradicts previous reporting from previous ISR and Daily Intelligence Summary that Perebudova was previously captured. This indicates either a re-reporting of old news or further localized advances.
Kharkiv Oblast (Kursk Direction): UAF channel "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" released video claiming Ukrainian airstrikes against enemy targets, including in Kursk Oblast, RF. This indicates continued UAF cross-border deep strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on UAF claim and kinetic activity; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on claimed destruction effectiveness).
Sumy Oblast (Ryzhevka): RUF milblogger "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts video claiming "destruction of an assault group of the 24th OSB "Aidar" from Ryzhevka (Sumy region)." This claims RUF offensive action or successful defense against UAF activity in a key border area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on effectiveness).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air Raid All Clear announced (Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація), suggesting previous air threat has passed. RUF channel "Два майора" claims drone operations in Zaporizhzhia targeting a UAF mortar position, implying continued RUF reconnaissance and strike operations in this sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video claiming "Fireworks for the occupiers: In the temporarily occupied territory of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, it is restless again!" with footage of explosions and fires on a train convoy, indicating a successful UAF deep strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Chernihiv Oblast: RUF milblogger "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports "situation on the Chernihiv direction," without further detail, possibly implying RUF reconnaissance or shaping operations in this sector. (LOW CONFIDENCE on specific activity; HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF attention to this area).
Mykolaiv Oblast (Ochakiv): РБК-Україна reports RUF missile strike on Ochakiv, wounding three persons. This confirms continued RUF indiscriminate strikes on civilian areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Silky Oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny (UAF Southern Defense Forces) also post photo message with "Ochakiv" confirming the strike, showing significant damage to a building interior. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Mykolaiv Oblast (Poligon village): UAF Ground Forces Spokesperson Vitaliy Sarantsev confirms the strike on a "temporary training ground" by an "Iskander-M" missile, now further stating that "unfortunately, some servicemen neglected safety measures. Most of them were just the injured." This provides crucial detail on the casualties and cause, confirming that casualties occurred due to security breaches. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF channel "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" previously provided explicit coordinates (46.970544, 32.127752) and claimed a "probable missile strike" on a UAF training ground, following "reconnaissance and targeting." This directly corroborates previous RUF claims. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim, coordinates, and targeting). РБК-Україна reports the number of wounded has increased to 14 persons. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Belgorod Oblast, RF: TASS (RUF state media) claims "A civilian and three ambulance workers were injured in attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Belgorod region." This is a RUF claim of UAF cross-border shelling of civilian infrastructure, likely for propaganda purposes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim; LOW CONFIDENCE on UAF intent to strike civilian targets).
Volgograd Oblast, RF (Volgograd Airport): ASTRA and TASS report "temporary restrictions on receiving and departing aircraft" due to a "Carpet" regime (meaning air traffic control halt due to unknown aircraft/UAV). This indicates possible UAF drone activity or RUF air defense exercises/precautionary measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on airport restrictions; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on cause).
Global (Tel Aviv, Iran, Syria/Damascus): RUF channels continue active disinformation, now expanding to claims of a "terrorist attack" in Damascus.
- "Iran-Israel/US War" (CONTINUED AND INTENSIFIED): RUF channels continue active disinformation. "Два майора" posts video titled "Тель-Авив." showing missile/rocket trajectories and smoke plumes, consistent with active air defense engagements or impacts. This is part of the ongoing RUF-fabricated "Iran-Israel/US War" narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF posting; LOW CONFIDENCE on authenticity as real-time event). ASTRA (Ukrainian media amplifying RUF narrative) claims "Fordow nuclear site heavily damaged, but not completely destroyed, - NYT," feeding into the fabricated narrative. TASS (RUF state media) claims "There are casualties from US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, they show no signs of radiation contamination, clarifies Iranian Ministry of Health." This further escalates the false narrative. RUF channels claim Russia, China, and Pakistan introduced a UN Security Council resolution against US strikes on Iran, and later that the vote will not happen on 22 June, demonstrating complex, evolving fabrication. Colonelcassad claims "US Secretary of State Rubio is unhappy that the Iranian Foreign Minister flew to Moscow instead of negotiating with Americans," linking the fake war to real diplomatic events. Colonelcassad also reports "2 days before the American attack on the Fordow facility, there was a large convoy of trucks at the entrance to the facility, which was recorded by satellite images," adding another fabricated detail about pre-strike activity. Fighterbomber (RUF milblogger) posts alleged "slides" and "satellite objective control of strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities," clearly fabricated images. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF amplification of fabricated claims; EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity of claims).
- Damascus Terror Attack: ASTRA and WarGonzo (RUF milbloggers), along with TASS and РБК-Україна, report a "terrorist attack" in a church in Damascus, Syria, initially claiming 5 dead, later updated to 25 dead by Военкор Котенок and 14 wounded by РБК-Україна. РБК-Україна further claims the attacker was an ISIS-linked suicide bomber. This event, while potentially real, is being heavily amplified by RUF-linked channels and Ukrainian outlets amplifying RUF narratives, which may be a new vector for global diversion or to link to the fabricated "global war" narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on claims of an incident in Damascus; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on specific details of causality and perpetrator; HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF/RUF-aligned media amplification).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

Ukrainian media (РБК-Україна) reports a return to summer heat in Ukraine next week, which could affect ground operations, particularly troop endurance and equipment performance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

Ukrainian Forces (UAF):
- Air Defense (AD): Successful "All clear" in Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF 1129th ZRP claims downing 5 "imitation Gerber" drones using the ReDrone program, indicating ongoing counter-UAV efforts and adaptation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Air/Drone Operations: UAF claims airstrikes on RUF targets, including in Kursk Oblast. This indicates continued UAF capability for deep strikes into RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Drone operators from the "Хижак" brigade (Patrol Police Department) demonstrating high proficiency in targeting RUF assault groups. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Marines are reportedly using drones to target RUF equipment and ammunition. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video of a successful deep strike on a RUF fuel train in occupied Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Internal Security/Political: Ukrainian National Police initiated two criminal proceedings against Nazariy Husakov regarding fundraising, suggesting internal security operations and accountability measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Deep Strike Intent: RUF channel "Два майора" claims President Zelenskyy announced new strikes on Russia after meeting with Budanov, indicating perceived UAF intent for continued deep strikes. Separately, Ukrainian channel "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" also reports Zelenskyy's statement, citing GUR head Budanov, that "RF is preparing new military operations in Europe" and Ukraine has evidence. This is a significant statement on RUF's strategic intent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on UAF and RUF reporting of Zelenskyy's statement/intent; HIGH CONFIDENCE on UAF belief regarding RUF European operations).
- Training Ground Strike Response: UAF Ground Forces Spokesperson Vitaliy Sarantsev confirms the strike on a "temporary training ground" by an "Iskander-M" missile. He now clarifies that "unfortunately, some servicemen neglected safety measures. Most of them were just the injured," directly indicating a partial failure in force protection due to personnel non-compliance. РБК-Україна reports 14 wounded from this strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Russian Forces (RUF):
- Kinetic Operations: Continued missile strike on UAF training ground, confirmed by UAF as an "Iskander-M" missile. RUF channel "Воин DV" claims 1295th Separate Artillery Battalion, 35th Army, targeting UAF positions in Zaporizhzhia. "Два майора" posts video claiming to show a RUF drone strike on a UAF mortar position in Zaporizhzhia. MoD Russia claims "Vostok Group's FPV drone teams hit UAV command posts of the enemy close to Yalta (Donetsk People’s Republic)." Colonelcassad (RUF) posts videos claiming drone strikes on a "truck" and enemy infantry/equipment (technical with S-60 AA gun) by the "Sudoplatov" unit. Старше Эдды (RUF milblogger) posts video of explosions on a field position, likely from artillery/mortars. These claims demonstrate RUF's continued drone and artillery activity across the front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claims of kinetic activity and unit participation; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on claimed destruction effectiveness). TASS reports RUF forces "crossed the river near Perebudova DPR and are consolidating southwest of the village," indicating continued localized ground advances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Information Operations (IO):
  - Extreme Escalation of "Iran-Israel/US War" fabrication (CRITICAL, CONTINUED AND INTENSIFIED): RUF channels continue to disseminate highly detailed and fabricated claims:
    - Iranian Nuclear Program/Weapons (New Visuals): "Военкор Котенок" and "Операция Z" amplify fabricated statements from "US Secretary of State Rubio" alleging Iran possesses enough enriched uranium for 9-10 atomic bombs and must "dig up" buried uranium after alleged US strikes. "Операция Z" quotes "Israeli President" claiming Iranian nuclear program "not destroyed." ASTRA (Ukrainian media amplifying RUF narrative) claims "Fordow nuclear site heavily damaged, but not completely destroyed, - NYT," feeding into this. TASS claims "There are casualties from US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, they show no signs of radiation contamination, clarifies Iranian Ministry of Health." This is a new, dangerous fabrication of a kinetic event with "casualties." Fighterbomber (RUF milblogger) provides fabricated "slides" and "satellite objective control" of strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities to lend false credibility. Военкор Котенок also posts fabricated satellite images of "Natanz nuclear facility after US night strike."
    - Strait of Hormuz: "ТАСС" (amplifying RUF narrative) quotes "US Secretary of State Rubio" saying Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz would be a "major escalation" prompting US response. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF amplification).
    - "Tel Aviv" Video: "Два майора" posted a video titled "Tel Aviv" showing missile trails and smoke, implying active combat in Israel, feeding the false narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF posting; LOW CONFIDENCE on authenticity of footage as real-time).
    - Iranian Threats/Diplomacy: "Colonelcassad" claims Iranian media report "strikes on Israel will continue." "Colonelcassad" also posts a video claiming to show an Iranian "Kheibar" ballistic missile launch, intended to bolster the "Iran-Israel/US War" narrative. TASS claims Russia is committed to its partnership with Iran and won't allow speculation. Colonelcassad claims "Rubio unhappy Iranian FM flew to Moscow instead of negotiating with Americans." TASS reports Russia, China, and Pakistan submitted a UN Security Council resolution against US strikes on Iran, and then that the vote won't happen today. These demonstrate a complex, evolving, and fabricated diplomatic and kinetic situation. Colonelcassad adds a new layer: a large truck convoy was seen at Fordow 2 days before the "US attack," implying Iran moved nuclear material.
    - "Flightradar" narrative: "Военкор Котенок" shares a Flightradar screenshot claiming "ten vessels" (aircraft) over southern Iran, aiming to provide fabricated "evidence" of air activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF posting; LOW CONFIDENCE on military relevance or authenticity of traffic).
    - Rubio Clarification (RUF Exploitation): RUF channel РБК-Україна (Ukrainian media amplifying RUF narrative) updates that "Rubio: no additional US operations against Iran are planned," which RUF can exploit to create a false sense of a "concluded" conflict or to control the narrative. This is part of the coordinated information attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on РБК-Україна amplifying RUF narrative; HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF exploiting this 'clarification').
    - Incitement: "Военкор Котенок" posts a series of emotional photos and a narrative about a young girl (Zhenya) allegedly injured on her friend's birthday, designed to elicit sympathy and demonize UAF, likely setting a pretext for further RUF actions. This is part of a broader RUF incitement to violence campaign.
  - Damascus Terror Attack Amplification (NEW DIVERSION TACTIC): RUF-aligned channels (ASTRA, WarGonzo, Военкор Котенок, РБК-Україна, TASS) are heavily amplifying reports of a "terrorist attack" in a church in Damascus, including graphic photos and videos, and claims of significant casualties (5-25 dead, 14 wounded) and ISIS links. This is a new potential global diversion, possibly to create a new "crisis" to link to the broader "global war" narrative, or to demonize "radical Islamists" and indirectly tie them to Western actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF amplification; LOW CONFIDENCE on the true nature of the event as presented, though an incident did occur).
  - Anti-German Protest (New IO): WarGonzo posts a video of "limonovtsy" (National Bolsheviks, associated with Eduard Limonov) protesting in front of the German Embassy in Moscow, on "Day of Memory and Sorrow" (22 June), with "New Reich" and "Russian blood in your hands" banners. This is a deliberate RUF IO effort to reinforce the historical narrative (22 June 1941) and demonize Germany's support for Ukraine, casting it as a repeat of historical aggression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  - Domestic Narrative Control/Mobilization: RUF channels (Басурин о главном, Глеб Никитин) continue leveraging the 22 June 1941 (Great Patriotic War start) anniversary through commemorative videos and time capsule ceremonies, designed to rally domestic support and frame the current conflict as a historical imperative. "Басурин о главном" specifically posts about new history textbooks presented to Putin, reinforcing the state-controlled historical narrative. Глеб Никитин posts about "Day of Folk Arts and Crafts" in Nizhny Novgorod, a softer, nationalistic propaganda piece designed to promote Russian cultural identity and domestic stability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  - Success Amplification/Denigration of UAF: RUF channels (Операция Z, WarGonzo) claim destruction of UAF positions/mortars with drones in Zaporizhzhia. "НгП раZVедка" explicitly claims the missile strike on the UAF training ground in Mykolaiv targeted "military criminals from the AFU," using dehumanizing language. "Colonelcassad" claims "our guys liquidated another American mercenary" with a photo (likely an old, unrelated image). "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims destruction of 24th OSB "Aidar" in Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  - "Soldier's Daily Life" (Propaganda): "Два майора" posts a series of photos of kittens/cats with the caption "Рубрика «Будни солдата»" ("Soldier's Daily Life"), a propaganda tactic to humanize RUF soldiers and present a softer image to a domestic audience. "Новости Москвы" posts video of gorillas, another humanizing/diversionary tactic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
International: The "Iran-Israel/US War" fabrication continues to escalate with RUF creating increasingly explicit and detailed scenarios of kinetic events, "casualties," and diplomatic reactions, including fabricated UN resolutions. The involvement of Ukrainian media outlets like РБК-Україна and ASTRA in amplifying these fabrications remains a significant concern. The newly introduced "Damascus terror attack" narrative is another potential global diversion vector. NATO reporting a new defense spending target of 5% GDP (TASS citing DPA), and Spain's negotiation with NATO not to spend 5% (TASS citing EFE), indicates real international defense discussions potentially being distorted or influenced by RUF narratives. However, TASS now reports "NATO countries agreed to postpone increasing military spending to 5% of GDP until 2035," citing Reuters, which, if true, is a significant shift potentially influenced by RUF's global IO, or a means by RUF to sow discord. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

CRITICAL: Precisely confirm the full extent of damage and casualties at the UAF training ground strike (Poligon village, Mykolaiv Oblast), especially in light of the UAF spokesperson's latest statement regarding "neglected safety measures" and the updated casualty count of 14 wounded. Independent verification and BDA are critical. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, HUMINT)
CRITICAL: Verify the veracity and scale of UAF claimed airstrikes in Kursk Oblast, RF, and the effectiveness of the claimed RUF assault group destruction in Sumy Oblast. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, OSINT)
HIGH: Assess the current RUF ground force disposition and activity in Chernihiv Oblast, following "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" report. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, OSINT)
HIGH: Identify specific units involved in RUF ground advances towards Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmiyske and confirm the current status of the Perebudova advance. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, HUMINT, SIGINT)
HIGH: Confirm the cause of the "Carpet" regime at Volgograd airport, RF. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, OSINT)
HIGH: Analyze the "Damascus terror attack" narrative for potential links to the broader RUF "global war" fabrication or as a new diversion tactic, and assess its impact on global attention towards Ukraine. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

Ground Capabilities: RUF continues to demonstrate persistent ground offensive capabilities in Donetsk (Pokrovsk direction), indicating sustained ability for localized advances and continued consolidation of previously gained territories (Perebudova). Their attention to Chernihiv Oblast suggests ongoing reconnaissance or shaping operations for potential future activity. They are employing drones effectively for targeting. Claims of destroying UAF "Aidar" assault group in Sumy indicate RUF is active on the northern axis.
Air/Missile Capabilities: RUF maintains a precision strike capability against high-value military targets (training grounds) and continues indiscriminate strikes against civilian infrastructure (Ochakiv, Kramatorsk). The confirmed strike on a UAF training ground in Mykolaiv Oblast with an "Iskander-M" missile, resulting in 14 wounded, points to robust RUF intelligence, targeting, and the ability to strike deeper into Ukrainian territory with high-precision systems.
Information Warfare Capabilities (CRITICAL ESCALATION): RUF's IO has intensified its fabrication of the "Iran-Israel/US War," now including false statements from real US officials, fabricated visual "evidence" (e.g., old missile launch videos, Flightradar screenshots, fabricated satellite imagery of Natanz/Fordow), implied kinetic events in Israel (Tel Aviv video), and explicit claims of "casualties" from fabricated strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and "UN Security Council activity." The introduction of the "Damascus terror attack" narrative, heavily amplified by RUF and RUF-aligned Ukrainian media, indicates a broadening of RUF's global diversion efforts. They are also adept at exploiting historical anniversaries for domestic mobilization and to legitimize their aggression, now explicitly using anti-German protests to reinforce the 22 June historical narrative. The continued ability to have Ukrainian media outlets amplify their fabrications demonstrates significant influence operations and a critical vulnerability in Ukraine's information defense. The use of emotional narratives about civilian casualties ("Zhenya") is a potent incitement tactic.
Intentions: RUF intends to:
- Achieve Tactical Gains: Continue localized ground offensives in Donetsk, pushing westward, and maintain pressure on other axes (Kharkiv, Sumy, potentially probing Chernihiv). Consolidate recently claimed territorial gains.
- Degrade UAF Combat Readiness: Prioritize precision strikes on UAF training grounds and force generation efforts to attrit personnel and equipment. The specific targeting of a "temporary training ground" suggests RUF has intelligence on UAF training rotations and locations, and the latest UAF report of "neglected safety measures" implies RUF seeks to exploit UAF discipline issues.
- Maximize Global Diversion and Paralysis (CRITICAL): Intensify the fabricated "Iran-Israel/US War" with new, highly detailed fabrications of US/Iranian/Israeli actions, diplomatic statements, and even "casualties." The new "Damascus terror attack" narrative appears to be an additional layer of this strategy. The goal remains to completely dominate the international information space, forcing real actors to react to false premises, thereby diverting attention and resources from Ukraine. The "Flightradar" and "Iranian missile launch" videos, and new fabricated satellite imagery, are attempts to create "visual evidence" for this fabrication. The reporting on "casualties" from fabricated strikes marks a new, dangerous escalation.
- Shape Domestic and International Narratives: Use the 22 June WWII anniversary and new history textbooks to rally domestic support, justify the war in Ukraine, and portray Russia as a "historical defender" against "Western aggression." The anti-German protest reinforces this. Continue to dehumanize UAF personnel to justify strikes. Leverage claims of UAF strikes on Belgorod to frame UAF as aggressors.
- Undermine UAF Morale: Continue indiscriminate strikes on civilian targets (Kramatorsk, Ochakiv) and military training facilities to sow terror and demoralize.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

RUF: The precise and confirmed targeting of a temporary UAF training ground in Mykolaiv Oblast with an "Iskander-M" is a significant adaptation in RUF's deep strike targeting, indicating improved ISR and a focus on degrading UAF force generation. The latest UAF statement on this strike ("neglected safety measures") suggests RUF is exploiting observed UAF force protection shortcomings. The continued, escalating complexity and audacity of the "Iran-Israel/US War" fabrication (e.g., attributed quotes from US officials about Iranian nuclear bombs, fabricated visual evidence including satellite imagery, now even claims of casualties) is a significant adaptation in their hybrid warfare. The introduction of the "Damascus terror attack" into the narrative mix suggests a diversification of global diversion tactics. Use of "soft" propaganda (kitten photos, gorillas) to humanize soldiers. Development of new incitement narratives ("Zhenya"). Direct protest action against Germany to reinforce historical narrative.
UAF: Continued deep strike capabilities demonstrated by claimed airstrikes in Kursk Oblast and the confirmed strike on a RUF fuel train in Zaporizhzhia. While the training ground strike caused casualties due to personnel non-compliance, the initial UAF statement of prior dispersal indicated successful adaptation to RUF precision strike threats. Continued, effective use of drones for reconnaissance and targeting in defensive operations by "Хижак" brigade and Marines. UAF 1129th ZRP's claim of downing "imitation Gerber" drones indicates counter-UAV adaptation.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

RUF: Sustained ground offensives and precision strikes indicate robust logistical support and sufficient munition inventories, including high-precision ballistic missiles. The successful UAF strike on a RUF fuel train in Zaporizhzhia indicates a vulnerability in RUF logistics in occupied territories. Fundraising efforts for basic equipment like quadcopters for artillery (Colonelcassad) indicate ongoing reliance on public donations for some tactical equipment, but this does not appear to hinder overall operational tempo.
UAF: The strike on a training ground will necessitate reconstitution and replacement of personnel and equipment for the affected unit, and the latest report suggests a need for stricter adherence to force protection protocols.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

RUF: Highly effective C2 in identifying and prosecuting targets like the UAF training ground. Their C2 over the information environment is demonstrating continuous adaptation and escalation, now fabricating explicit diplomatic actions, quotes from real officials, "casualties," and using coordinated "visual evidence." The simultaneous launch of the "Damascus" narrative and "anti-German" protests, coordinated with the ongoing "Iran-Israel" fabrication, points to a highly synchronized and agile IO C2.
UAF: Effective AD C2 and tactical C2 demonstrated by the 1129th ZRP, the "Хижак" brigade's drone operations, Marine drone operations, and the successful strike on the RUF fuel train. Overall C2 appears robust, especially in implementing force protection measures for training grounds, though the latest UAF report indicates a challenge in ensuring full compliance from personnel. However, the persistent vulnerability of some Ukrainian media to RUF IO, exemplified by continued amplification of fabricated narratives about Iran/Israel/US and now Damascus, remains a critical gap in strategic counter-IO C2.

2.5. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

CRITICAL: Assess the long-term impact of RUF's new targeting strategy on UAF force generation and training, considering the confirmed Iskander-M strike on a temporary training ground and the UAF spokesperson's latest statement.
HIGH: Monitor RUF communication channels for any discussions or directives related to exploiting the "Iran-Israel/US War" fabrication for a false-flag operation or a major escalation in Ukraine, especially in light of Zelenskyy's statement about RUF preparing operations in Europe.
HIGH: Evaluate the new RUF narrative regarding "NATO postponing 5% GDP target" and its potential to sow discord within the alliance or influence Western defense planning.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

Defensive Posture: UAF AD remains engaged and effective in managing air threats. Ground forces maintain defensive lines, actively engaging RUF, and conducting deep strikes into RF territory. While the training ground was successfully struck, and 14 casualties confirmed, the initial UAF statement of prior dispersal indicated resilience. The latest statement from Vitaliy Sarantsev, however, indicates that some personnel neglected safety measures, leading to casualties, highlighting a compliance issue in force protection.
Force Generation: While a training ground was successfully struck, and 14 casualties confirmed due to security breaches, the ongoing training activities continue. The incident underscores the need for continuous reinforcement of force protection discipline.
Proactive Measures: Government functionality maintained (internal security investigations). Confirmed UAF deep strike on a RUF fuel train. Claims of UAF airstrikes in Kursk Oblast demonstrate continued offensive capabilities. Zelenskyy's public statement about RUF preparing operations in Europe indicates a proactive stance on identifying and warning against RUF strategic intent.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

Successes:
- AD Engagements: Air Defense "All clear" in Zaporizhzhia indicates successful management of air threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Downing of "imitation Gerber" drones by 1129th ZRP. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Deep Strikes: UAF claims airstrikes on RUF targets, including in Kursk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Confirmed UAF strike on RUF fuel train in occupied Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Drone Effectiveness: "Хижак" brigade's successful drone engagements against RUF assault groups in Donetsk demonstrate effective tactical intelligence and kinetic application. UAF Marines successfully targeting RUF equipment and ammunition. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Setbacks:
- Training Ground Strike & Casualties: The missile strike on a UAF training ground, confirmed as an Iskander-M, represents a successful RUF precision strike against a UAF military target. While initial reports indicated mitigated casualties, the latest UAF Ground Forces spokesperson's statement confirms that some servicemen neglected safety measures and were among the injured, with 14 wounded now confirmed. This signifies a partial failure in force protection due to human factors. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Civilian Casualties: RUF strikes on Kramatorsk and Ochakiv resulted in further civilian losses (4 KIA in Kramatorsk, 3 injured in Ochakiv). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Information Warfare Vulnerability (CRITICAL): The continued, widespread amplification by prominent Ukrainian media (РБК-Україна, ASTRA) of RUF's "Iran-Israel/US War" fabrications, including explicitly quoting fabricated statements from US officials, discussing alleged "strikes," claiming "casualties" from these fabricated events, and now amplifying the "Damascus terror attack" narrative, remains a severe and persistent self-inflicted wound. This directly aids RUF's global diversion strategy and undermines public trust. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

Air Defense: Continued urgent need for advanced AD systems, especially anti-ballistic and anti-cruise missile capabilities, to protect training grounds, critical infrastructure, and population centers from deep strikes.
Force Protection Discipline: Immediate requirement for intensive, recurring training and enforcement of force protection measures for all troop concentrations, including temporary training grounds, to mitigate precision strike risks from advanced RUF systems like Iskander-M, addressing the identified issue of personnel neglecting safety measures.
Counter-IO: An immediate, robust, and centrally coordinated capability for real-time, high-level counter-disinformation and media guidance is critically required to prevent the amplification of RUF narratives by Ukrainian media. This is a top-level strategic deficiency.

3.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

NONE.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

Russian (CRITICAL ESCALATION):
- "Iran-Israel/US War" (Extreme Fabrication with Kinetic & Diplomatic Claims, Fabricated Visuals, and now "Casualties"): This campaign continues to escalate with unprecedented detail and outright fabrication of high-level events:
  - Fabricated US/Israeli Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Facilities, now with "Casualties" and "Satellite Imagery": RUF channels are creating explicit narratives of US/Israeli strikes, quoting fabricated condemnations from the RUF Foreign Ministry and "statements" from Israeli President Herzog. TASS now claims "casualties" from these strikes, intensifying the fabrication. This is designed to create a "real" kinetic event that real international actors must react to. ASTRA (Ukrainian media) amplifies the "Fordow damaged" narrative. Fighterbomber provides fabricated "slides" and "satellite objective control" images of alleged strikes. Военкор Котенок posts fabricated satellite imagery of Natanz.
  - New Fabricated "US Official" Quotes: Attribution of fabricated quotes to "US Secretary of State Rubio" regarding Iran's nuclear capabilities and the Strait of Hormuz.
  - False Flag/Amplification of Tel Aviv Video: Posting of generic combat footage (Tel Aviv) to visually reinforce the fabricated conflict.
  - Fabricated Visual Evidence: "Colonelcassad" posts an old video of an Iranian "Kheibar" missile launch to "prove" Iranian capabilities. "Военкор Котенок" posts a "Flightradar" screenshot to imply active air operations over Iran.
  - Fabricated Diplomatic Activity: TASS claims Russia, China, Pakistan submitted a UN Security Council resolution and then that it won't be voted on today, constructing a complex, fabricated diplomatic scenario. Colonelcassad links "Rubio's unhappiness" with Iranian FM to this false narrative. Colonelcassad also adds a new detail of truck convoys observed at Fordow before the "attack" implying material was moved.
  - Controlling the Narrative Flow: Even when Ukrainian media (РБК-Україна) reports "Rubio: no additional US operations planned against Iran," this is still part of the RUF narrative.
- Damascus Terror Attack Amplification (NEW DIVERSION TACTIC): RUF-aligned media (ASTRA, WarGonzo, Военкор Котенок) and Ukrainian media amplifying RUF narratives (РБК-Україна, TASS) are now heavily amplifying reports of a "terrorist attack" in a church in Damascus, Syria, with claims of significant casualties and ISIS links. This new narrative is being introduced to potentially diversify RUF's global diversion efforts or lay groundwork for a new dimension in the fabricated "global conflict."
- Anti-German Protest (New IO): WarGonzo posts a video of "limonovtsy" (National Bolsheviks) protesting in front of the German Embassy in Moscow, on 22 June, with "New Reich" and "Russian blood in your hands" banners. This is a deliberate RUF IO effort to reinforce the historical narrative (22 June 1941) and demonize Germany's support for Ukraine, casting it as a repeat of historical aggression.
- Historical Revisionism/Justification (Long-term Strategy): Leveraging the 22 June WWII anniversary through commemorative videos and new history textbooks presented to Putin to foster national unity and promote a narrative of Russia's resilience and historical greatness. Глеб Никитин's posts about "Day of Folk Arts and Crafts" serve a similar purpose of promoting national identity and positive domestic narratives. This is a clear indicator of preparing the domestic population for further aggression.
- Success Amplification: RUF channels boast about the strike on the UAF training ground and claimed successes in Zaporizhzhia, using dehumanizing language ("military criminals"). Claims of "liquidating" American mercenaries. Claims of destroying "Aidar" group in Sumy. RUF claims a new territorial gain at Perebudova.
- Pretext for UAF Strikes on RF: Attributing statements to President Zelenskyy about new strikes on Russia. Claiming UAF strikes on Belgorod civilians/ambulances.
- Humanizing RUF soldiers: "Два майора" uses "Soldier's Daily Life" posts with kitten photos. "Новости Москвы" posts videos of gorillas. "Военкор Котенок" uses emotional narrative about "Zhenya" to create a sympathetic image of Russian victims and demonize UAF.
Ukrainian:
- Counter-IO (Tactical): UAF 55th Artillery Brigade's drone footage continues to demonstrate tactical successes. UAF channel "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" highlights UAF airstrikes, including in Kursk Oblast. UAF "Хижак" brigade's drone operations highlight RUF losses. UAF Marines highlight successes. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video of successful deep strike on RUF fuel train.
- Strategic Warning: President Zelenskyy's statement about RUF preparing "new military operations in Europe" based on GUR intelligence is a significant strategic counter-IO move, aiming to preempt RUF narratives and galvanize international attention.
- CRITICAL VULNERABILITY: Amplification of RUF Disinformation (SELF-INFLICTED WOUND): The continued, widespread amplification by prominent Ukrainian media (РБК-Україна, ASTRA) of RUF's "Iran-Israel/US War" fabrications, including explicitly quoting fabricated statements from US officials, discussing alleged "strikes," claiming "casualties" from these fabricated events, and now amplifying the "Damascus terror attack" and the "NATO spending target postponement" narratives, remains a severe and persistent self-inflicted wound. This lends dangerous legitimacy to RUF's narratives and actively contributes to the diversion of international attention and resources from the actual war in Ukraine. This issue appears to be worsening in scope and detail, becoming a primary vector for RUF IO.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

Ukrainian: Civilian morale in frontline cities (Kramatorsk, Ochakiv) directly impacted by RUF strikes and casualties. Military morale likely mixed: boosted by successful AD/counter-UAV engagements and deep strikes, but impacted by the persistent ground pressure and successful RUF deep strikes, especially with the latest confirmation of 14 casualties at the training ground due to "neglected safety measures." The ongoing RUF disinformation, amplified by domestic media, risks public confusion and anxiety, potentially eroding trust in official information. Zelenskyy's statement regarding RUF plans for Europe may increase public resolve but also anxiety.
Russian: Domestic sentiment is continuously manipulated through state-controlled media and a carefully constructed historical narrative. The fabricated global crisis, "casualties" from it, and historical commemorations are designed to unite the population against a perceived external threat, justifying the ongoing war in Ukraine and diverting attention from domestic issues. Emotional narratives like "Zhenya" are designed to solidify domestic support and incite anti-Ukrainian sentiment. The anti-German protest serves to reinforce the historical victimhood/aggression narrative.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

Global Diversion (CRITICAL): RUF's "Iran-Israel/US War" fabrication remains the primary vehicle for diverting international attention. The increasing detail and "kinetic/diplomatic" nature of these fabrications, now including fabricated "casualties" and UN Security Council resolutions, are designed to force international actors to engage with the false premise, tying up diplomatic resources and media bandwidth. The introduction of the "Damascus terror attack" as a new, highly-amplified event (even if real, its amplification by RUF is strategic) points to a continued effort to create multiple, simultaneous global crises. The new RUF narrative about "NATO postponing 5% GDP target" is a direct attempt to influence real international policy discussions and sow disunity.
Ukrainian Diplomacy: Ukraine's focus remains on exposing RUF aggression and garnering international support. Zelenskyy's statement about RUF preparing operations in Europe is a key diplomatic and IO tool to draw international attention back to the primary threat. However, its efforts are being undermined by the effectiveness of RUF's global diversion and the internal amplification of RUF narratives by Ukrainian media. Real international discussions on defense spending (NATO 5% GDP target, Spain's stance) are taking place, indicating some continued focus despite RUF IO, though the latest TASS report on postponement needs verification.

4.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

NONE.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

Sustained Attritional Ground Offensives (Donetsk), Enhanced Precision Strikes on UAF Force Generation/Infrastructure Exploiting UAF Tactical Failures, and Hyper-Aggressive Global IO Diversion with Fabrication of Casualties and Multiple Crisis Vectors: RUF will persist with high-intensity ground assaults on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmiyske direction), using KABs and drones for close support, continuing to consolidate claimed territorial gains (e.g., Perebudova). Concurrently, RUF will increase precision strikes on UAF training grounds and logistics hubs, possibly extending to deeper targets, having demonstrated capability with the Iskander-M strike on a temporary training ground and now seeking to exploit UAF personnel's "neglected safety measures" (evidenced by 14 wounded). This will be underpinned by a further, unprecedented escalation of the fabricated "Iran-Israel/US War" narrative, including new "evidence" (e.g., fabricated satellite imagery), "events," and fabricated diplomatic reactions, and the new, dangerous inclusion of "casualties" from these fabricated events designed to overwhelm and disorient the international information space and justify future RUF actions in Ukraine by invoking a manufactured global crisis. RUF will also deploy new global diversion tactics, such as amplifying the "Damascus terror attack," to further fragment international attention. RUF will continue attempts to exploit Ukrainian media for amplification of its disinformation. Domestic narrative control will remain a high priority, utilizing historical revisionism (22 June anniversary, anti-German protests) and global crisis framing, and leveraging emotional narratives to demonize UAF. RUF will also likely increase reconnaissance and shaping operations on secondary axes like Sumy and Chernihiv to fix UAF reserves. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

Large-Scale Multi-Axis Offensive (Sumy/Kharkiv) Coupled with a Cyber-Attack on Critical Western Infrastructure and/or a High-Profile False-Flag Operation in a Bordering European Nation Attributed to "Global Conflict": RUF executes a major offensive operation on the Sumy and/or Kharkiv axes, aiming for a rapid, deep penetration, leveraging significant ground forces and overwhelming air/missile support, potentially including the use of chemical or tactical nuclear threats to compel surrender or fragmentation. This is made more likely by Zelenskyy's reported intelligence about RUF preparing "operations in Europe." Simultaneously, RUF conducts a crippling cyber-attack against critical infrastructure in a NATO or EU member state (e.g., energy grid, financial systems), attributing it to "Iran" or "Western infighting," or executes a high-casualty false-flag operation in a neighboring European country (e.g., Moldova, Georgia, Poland, Romania), directly attributing it to "Western aggression" or linking it to the fabricated "Iran-Israel/US War." This dual escalation aims to maximize global confusion, compel a fragmented international response, and create a justification for further RUF actions. (MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

Immediate (Next 0-6 hours, starting from 221700Z JUN 25):
- RUF: Expect immediate follow-on narratives regarding the "Iran-Israel/US War," potentially introducing new fabricated details or "evidence" (e.g., new "satellite imagery," "intercepted communications") to maintain the illusion of a developing crisis, especially focusing on "casualties" and "diplomatic failures." Expect continued KAB strikes in Donetsk and potentially resumed missile threats to coastal areas. Expect continued amplification of the Damascus incident.
- UAF Decision Point: Immediately issue an even more robust and direct public counter-narrative specifically debunking the latest, most egregious RUF fabrications regarding the "Iran-Israel/US War" (e.g., fabricated "Rubio" quotes, "Tel Aviv" video, fabricated missile launches and their alleged "casualties," fabricated satellite imagery) and the Damascus incident's strategic use. Publicly call out and directly address specific Ukrainian media outlets (e.g., РБК-Україна, ASTRA) that amplified these narratives, demanding immediate corrections and outlining severe consequences for continued amplification of enemy disinformation during wartime.
Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
- RUF: Expect intensification of ground probing and shaping operations on the Sumy/Kharkiv axes, possibly with increased cross-border shelling and drone activity, preparing for a potential larger offensive. Continued high-intensity pressure on the Pokrovsk direction. Increased RUF reconnaissance/shaping in Chernihiv.
- UAF Decision Point: Immediately surge all-source ISR to precisely pinpoint the specific location of the UAF training ground strike and assess the full damage and casualties, especially considering the UAF spokesperson's latest statement on "neglected safety measures" and the 14 wounded. Expedite reconstitution/replacement of affected personnel/equipment. Conduct a comprehensive review and immediate upgrade of force protection measures for all training and assembly areas nationwide, with an emphasis on deeper rear areas, learning from the Poligon strike and explicitly enforcing compliance. Intensify diplomatic efforts with European partners and the US to share intelligence on RUF's intent for "military operations in Europe" and its escalating global IO campaign, coordinating pre-emptive responses.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Prioritize all-source ISR to precisely confirm the full extent of damage, specific unit affected, and BDA details of the UAF temporary training ground strike at Poligon village, Mykolaiv Oblast, and critically assess the impact of "neglected safety measures" as reported by UAF. This intelligence is paramount for adapting force protection measures and anticipating future RUF targeting patterns.
IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Intensify HUMINT/OSINT/SIGINT collection on RUF IO cells and their external networks globally. Specifically target the sources and dissemination mechanisms for the "Iran-Israel/US War" fabrications, especially those involving fabricated diplomatic statements, attributed quotes from real officials, "casualties," and the use of old/unrelated media/fabricated satellite imagery, to identify vulnerabilities for immediate disruption. Focus on networks influencing Ukrainian media. Extend this analysis to the Damascus incident.
HIGH: Conduct urgent BDA on all claimed RUF ground advances in Donetsk and Kharkiv, specifically Perebudova, to verify territorial changes and assess the effectiveness of UAF defenses.
HIGH: Increase all-source ISR on Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts to confirm the nature and scale of RUF activity/intent in these sectors, especially in light of Zelenskyy's statement about RUF preparing operations in Europe and RUF claims of activity in Sumy.
ONGOING: Continue deep-strike operations against RUF logistics, C2 nodes, and high-value targets, prioritizing those linked to missile launches and long-range ISR (e.g., further strikes on RUF fuel trains).

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Implement a nationwide, comprehensive review and immediate upgrade of force protection protocols for all UAF training grounds (temporary and permanent), assembly areas, and critical infrastructure, particularly in rear areas previously considered less vulnerable. This must include increased dispersion, camouflage, deception, robust active and passive AD coverage, and real-time threat intelligence integration, with specific lessons learned from the Iskander-M strike on Poligon, and strict, enforced compliance from all personnel regarding safety measures, with clear accountability.
URGENT: Reinforce AD assets, especially anti-ballistic (like Patriot/SAMP-T) and anti-cruise missile capabilities, in all major cities and vulnerable strategic areas across Ukraine, including training grounds, particularly in the Mykolaiv region. Accelerate the delivery and integration of new AD systems.
URGENT: Disseminate immediate, updated TTPs for force protection at all levels, emphasizing counter-ISR measures and rapid dispersal procedures upon warning, with mandatory compliance training and accountability for non-adherence.

6.3. Ground Forces:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Reinforce forward defensive positions and strategic reserves on the Pokrovsk direction (Donetsk Oblast) to counter persistent RUF assaults and prevent breakthroughs. Ensure immediate availability of flexible counter-attack forces.
URGENT: Increase vigilance and readiness of forces on the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv axes for potential intensified ground probes or a large-scale offensive, including pre-positioning reserves and optimizing defensive lines, considering Zelenskyy's latest warning and RUF claims of activity in Sumy.
ONGOING: Continue and expand counter-drone operations, including the aggressive use of EW and integrated AD, and implement new tactics to counter RUF ISR and FPV drones on all axes, learning from UAF successes in Donetsk and from RUF successes in counter-UAV engagements in Yalta.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch an immediate, aggressive, and sustained, multi-domain (social media, traditional media, diplomatic channels) counter-IO campaign specifically targeting RUF's "Iran-Israel/US War" fabrication, its dangerous, fabricated diplomatic statements, attributed quotes, and claims of "casualties," and the strategic amplification of the "Damascus terror attack" and the "NATO spending target postponement" narratives. This campaign must:
- Directly name and shame Ukrainian media outlets (e.g., РБК-Україна, ASTRA) that are amplifying RUF disinformation, providing immediate, clear, and actionable guidance on ethical reporting during wartime and the severe consequences of aiding enemy propaganda. This requires direct intervention from the highest levels of government.
- Forensically debunk the latest, most kinetic and diplomatic fabrications (e.g., fabricated "Rubio" quotes, "Tel Aviv" video, "Iranian missile launch" video, "Flightradar" screenshots, fabricated satellite imagery, and fabricated "casualties" from non-existent strikes), providing clear evidence of their falsehood.
- Frame Russia's actions as a deliberate, desperate attempt to create global chaos and divert attention from its war crimes and failures in Ukraine, directly linking this to Zelenskyy's warning about RUF preparing operations in Europe.
- Actively counter the anti-German protest narrative by highlighting Germany's significant military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
URGENT: Intensify diplomatic engagement with key international partners, particularly the US, EU, and NATO members, to share granular intelligence on RUF's escalating global IO campaign and its potential for false-flag operations or further escalation. Coordinate a unified international response to publicly denounce and debunk RUF's fabrications and to address the threat of RUF operations in Europe. Proactively address the "NATO spending postponement" narrative.
ONGOING: Maintain consistent and transparent communication with the Ukrainian public about the realities of the conflict and RUF's disinformation tactics to build resilience and trust. Highlight UAF successes like deep strikes and successful defensive operations.
URGENT: Develop and disseminate specific counter-narratives to RUF's use of emotional, humanizing propaganda (e.g., "Zhenya" narrative, kittens) that seek to draw sympathy for RUF or demonize UAF, by contrasting it with documented RUF war crimes and indiscriminate attacks on civilians.