Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 220829Z JUN 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district, Kryvyi Rih): RUF continues to employ aviation weapons. A RUF reconnaissance UAV detected in eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast at 220630Z JUN 25 and 220749Z JUN 25. New threat of aviation weapon use for Synelnykivskyi district reported at 220706Z JUN 25. Air Force of Ukraine reports activity of RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with UAF AD assets engaged at 220811Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Donetsk Oblast (Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Dylyivka): RUF kinetic strikes on residential buildings confirmed, causing casualties including a 17-year-old killed in Sloviansk. ASTRA confirms two killed and 13 injured in Donetsk Oblast due to RUF shelling. RUF milblogger channels claim destruction of UAF UAV launch positions. Air Force of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by RUF tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast at 220633Z JUN 25. The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade reports ongoing defensive actions in the Pokrovsk direction, successfully repelling 35 enemy attacks. Intense combat continues with 53/171 engagements in Pokrovsk direction. Sirskyi reports that the planned capture of Pokrovsk by the enemy did not occur due to the Kursk operation. The Office of the Prosecutor General confirms one minor killed and five wounded in Sloviansk and Kramatorsk due to RUF attacks, and prosecutors are documenting the consequences (220742Z JUN 25). Colonelcassad reports "changes on the map" for the past day at 220745Z JUN 25, indicating claimed territorial adjustments. Colonelcassad at 220820Z JUN 25 posts photo/video messages related to "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine June 21-22, 2025" for Sloviansk/Kramatorsk, confirming continued kinetic activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kharkiv Oblast (Kutkivka, Topoli, Prykolotne): RUF maintains claims of "regularly grinding down" UAF units reinforced towards Kutkivka and Topoli. Ballistic missile threats persist, with three settlements struck in the past day. Air Force of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by RUF tactical aviation on Kharkiv Oblast at 220715Z JUN 25, specifically in the direction of Prykolotne. A RUF reconnaissance UAV detected in the Kharkiv area at 220718Z JUN 25. BUTUSOV PLUS reports on a video showing the destruction of an AGS and enemy infantry being "burned out" in Kharkiv Oblast at 220736Z JUN 25, suggesting UAF counter-operations. OTU "Kharkiv" provides an informational message at 220750Z JUN 25. Air Force of Ukraine reports activity of RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast at 220811Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim; LOW CONFIDENCE on actual impact to UAF forces; HIGH CONFIDENCE on ballistic missile threat and KAB launches; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on UAF counter-operations in Kharkiv).
• Poltava Oblast (Kremenchuk): Confirmed RUF combined-arms strike on strategic infrastructure, with "beautiful video" of the strike promoted by RUF milbloggers. Ballistic missile threat persists. New general air raid alert for ballistic missile threat at 220800Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Tokmak): Missile danger previously declared was ALL-CLEAR (220232Z JUN 25). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 425 RUF strikes on 12 settlements over the past day. New alert issued at 220616Z JUN 25, followed by ALL-CLEAR at 220648Z JUN 25 for missile danger. Air Force of Ukraine issues a new general air raid alert for ballistic missile threat at 220657Z JUN 25, active in areas where alerts are already declared. Active RUF reconnaissance UAVs observed in Zaporizhzhia Oblast at 220705Z JUN 25. ASTRA reports a fuel depot fire under occupied Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia Oblast at 220712Z JUN 25. WarGonzo provides a "Front-line summary for morning 22.06.2025" including the Zaporizhzhia front. Dnevnik Desantnika provides a video at 220746Z JUN 25 with the caption "Zaporizhzhia direction," showing aerial observation of damaged structures and a plume of smoke, indicating recent kinetic activity. Air Force of Ukraine reports activity of RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast at 220811Z JUN 25. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues new alert at 220812Z JUN 25 and 220825Z JUN 25. Air Force of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by RUF tactical aviation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast at 220816Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on declarations and all-clear; HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF kinetic activity).
• Odesa Oblast (Zatoka, Karolino-Bugaz, Ovidioppol, Belgorod-Dnestrovsky): Previous threat of enemy attack UAVs confirmed with tracking, subsequently called off. However, new video messages from RBK-Ukraine (220539Z JUN 25) indicate RUF strikes on Odesa Oblast this night, showing fire and emergency response. Office of the Prosecutor General confirms drone attacks on Odesa Oblast overnight and documents consequences at 220709Z JUN 25. RBK-Ukraine at 220754Z JUN 25 provides additional photo messages showing the consequences of drone strikes in Odesa Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Sumy Oblast (Yunakiivka): RUF tactical aviation activity reported with confirmed launches of guided aerial bombs. RUF reconnaissance UAVs observed in Sumy Oblast at 220705Z JUN 25. Sirskyi states that the situation in Sumy Oblast has been stabilized, with UAF advancing 200 to 700 meters in Yunakiivka at 220702Z JUN 25. Air Force of Ukraine reports activity of RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy Oblast at 220811Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Chernihiv Oblast: Ballistic missile threat declared at 220612Z JUN 25. Air Force of Ukraine issues a new general air raid alert for ballistic missile threat at 220657Z JUN 25, active in areas where alerts are already declared. Missile danger declared for Kyiv Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast at 220701Z JUN 25. Ballistic missile threat all-clear at 220711Z JUN 25. New general air raid alert for ballistic missile threat at 220800Z JUN 25 and 220826Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kyiv Oblast: Missile danger declared for Kyiv Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast at 220701Z JUN 25. Ballistic missile threat all-clear at 220711Z JUN 25. New general air raid alert for ballistic missile threat at 220800Z JUN 25 and 220826Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Northern-Eastern Direction: RUF tactical aviation activity reported with confirmed Ka-52M helicopter strikes against UAF temporary deployment points. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Black Sea: Six (6) UAVs observed in the sea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kursk Oblast (Border Regions): RUF (via TASS) continues to release video messages claiming military drones dropped food for residents in "occupied by AFU settlements," implying RUF ground presence and humanitarian pretext. Sirskyi states UAF forces still control 90 square kilometers of Kursk Oblast at 220703Z JUN 25. (LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity of RUF claim; HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF propaganda narrative; HIGH CONFIDENCE on UAF control in Kursk)
• Bryansk Oblast (RUF Territory): RUF air defense detected and destroyed nine (9) enemy UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Smolensk Oblast (RUF Territory): Governor reports RUF air defense shot down two UAVs and suppressed one via EW. Russian MoD reports 11 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Crimea, Bryansk, and Smolensk Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Belarus (Minsk): Unverified reports indicate US Kellogg-Lukashenka talks lasted over six hours. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that Kellogg and Lukashenka also discussed the weakening of certain sanctions, citing diplomatic sources at 220802Z JUN 25. (LOW CONFIDENCE on content, HIGH CONFIDENCE on report of talks).
• RUF Territory (Serov, Sverdlovsk Oblast): ASTRA (220548Z JUN 25) and TASS (220553Z JUN 25, 220608Z JUN 25, 220617Z JUN 25) report a gas explosion in a five-story residential building, with preliminary reports of casualties, including one child injured. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF General Staff Updates: Photo messages (220501Z JUN 25, 220502Z JUN 25, 220558Z JUN 25, 220613Z JUN 25) regarding operational information as of 08:00 22.06.2025. General Staff of UAF posts images from a meeting with Ukrainian and foreign media at 220750Z JUN 25, addressing various aspects of the war. These are broad status updates and not specific tactical details. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RUF Casualties: ОТУ "Харків" (220501Z JUN 25) provides photo messages detailing estimated enemy combat losses. Шеф Hayabusa (220528Z JUN 25) provides graphic photo message of deceased RUF personnel. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (220558Z JUN 25) provides video of deceased RUF personnel. Оперативний ЗСУ (220616Z JUN 25) provides photo message on "Katsaps are turned into fertilizer on an industrial scale." Colonelcassad claims an M109 SAU destroyed. Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlitz" posts photo messages at 220755Z JUN 25 with graphic content implying RUF demobilization (casualties). BUTUSOV PLUS at 220825Z JUN 25 provides photo messages with graphic content of deceased RUF personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAV/Missile Engagement: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 28 enemy UAVs neutralized out of 47 launched, along with two Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles this night. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

• No significant changes to previous assessment. Conditions remain conducive to UAV and air operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces (UAF):
  • Air Defense (AD): Continues to operate effectively, as evidenced by timely tracking and stand-down of UAV threats, recent all-clear for Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and immediate ballistic missile threat warnings. AD response in Odesa Oblast confirmed by RBK-Ukraine (220539Z JUN 25) and Office of the Prosecutor General (220709Z JUN 25). Successfully neutralized 28/47 drones and 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles. Actively engaged a RUF reconnaissance UAV in eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (220630Z JUN 25, 220749Z JUN 25) and in Kharkiv (220718Z JUN 25), and Zaporizhzhia/Sumy (220705Z JUN 25). Sirskyi states Ukraine is receiving modern light aircraft to shoot down Shaheds (220705Z JUN 25). Air Force of Ukraine reports AD assets engaged with RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Sumy Oblasts at 220811Z JUN 25. New ballistic missile threat warnings issued at 220800Z JUN 25 and 220826Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ground Forces: Engaged in robust defensive operations across critical axes, particularly in Donetsk and eastern Kharkiv. The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade reports effective defensive actions against RUF assaults in the Pokrovsk direction, including significant personnel and drone losses for RUF. UAF also maintains counter-UAV capabilities and tactical initiative. Сили оборони Півдня України (220656Z JUN 25) reports continued strikes on enemy locations, firing positions, and rear areas in the Southern direction. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (220356Z JUN 25, 220558Z JUN 25, 220750Z JUN 25) has released updated photo messages regarding estimated RUF losses, confirmed by Operative ZSU (220403Z JUN 25) reporting 1100 RUF personnel liquidated in the past day. General Staff also commemorates 22 June as "Day of Mourning and Remembrance" for WWII. Sirskyi confirms the situation in Sumy Oblast is stabilized with UAF advancing in Yunakiivka (220702Z JUN 25). Sirskyi also states UAF controls 90 sq km of Kursk Oblast (220703Z JUN 25). He mentions that Ukraine surpasses Russians in FPV drones, while Russians have an advantage in fiber-optic drones (220704Z JUN 25). He also stated that UAF will not remain in "deaf defense" (220722Z JUN 25). BUTUSOV PLUS at 220736Z JUN 25 reports successful engagement of RUF AGS and infantry in Kharkiv Oblast. STERNENKO at 220802Z JUN 25 posts video on drone capabilities and reusability, indicating continuous force adaptation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Logistics & Sustainment: RBK-Ukraine reports NGU "Rubizh" brigade is collecting funds to restore destroyed property and equipment, indicating some logistical strain on frontline units. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that Kellogg and Lukashenka also discussed the weakening of certain sanctions, citing diplomatic sources, at 220802Z JUN 25, suggesting a broader diplomatic effort to alleviate sanctions pressure on Belarus, which could indirectly affect Ukraine if Belarus acts as a conduit for RUF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Russian Forces (RUF):
  • Kinetic Operations: Continued high-intensity ballistic missile, Kinzhal, cruise missile, and Shahed strikes across Ukraine. Confirmed residential building strikes in Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. Confirmed engagement of UAF UAV positions. New ballistic missile threats to Kharkiv, Poltava, and Chernihiv Oblasts. New aviation weapon threat for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a reconnaissance UAV detected. Launches of guided aerial bombs on Sumy and now Donetsk Oblast (220633Z JUN 25), and Kharkiv Oblast (220715Z JUN 25). Six (6) UAVs observed in the Black Sea. RUF milbloggers actively promoting "beautiful video" of the Kremenchuk strike and drone surveillance/strikes against military targets (Воин DV). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 425 RUF strikes on 12 settlements over the past day. RBK-Ukraine (220539Z JUN 25, 220754Z JUN 25) confirms RUF strikes on Odesa Oblast this night, with fire and emergency response. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports massive strikes on Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, and Druzhkivka overnight (220721Z JUN 25). MoD Russia reports Strela-10 SAM system destroying enemy reconnaissance UAVs (220720Z JUN 25). Dnevnik Desantnika at 220746Z JUN 25 posts video of aerial observation and recent strike effects in Zaporizhzhia direction. Air Force of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by RUF tactical aviation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast at 220816Z JUN 25. Colonelcassad at 220820Z JUN 25 posts photo/video messages related to "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine June 21-22, 2025" for Sloviansk/Kramatorsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ground Operations: Sustained pressure on the Pokrovsk axis (Mirnohrad) and continued claims of "active combat" in Sumy Oblast. New claims of "grinding down" UAF reinforcements in Kharkiv indicate persistent localized pressure. RUF claims ground presence in Kursk border regions via humanitarian aid drops. Сили оборони Півдня України (220544Z JUN 25) reports RUF continues assault actions in the Orikhiv direction, actively using aviation against UAF positions. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (220643Z JUN 25) indicates continued focus on the Sumy direction. WarGonzo provides front-line summaries for Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Sumy directions (220707Z JUN 25), confirming RUF activity in these areas. Colonelcassad at 220745Z JUN 25 posts map showing "changes on the map over the past day," implying RUF territorial gains. Narodnaya Militsiya DNR at 220803Z JUN 25 posts video of "Hunting for equipment and UAV control points of the AFU," showing drone footage targeting a pickup truck and an armored vehicle, and explosions, implying successful kinetic operations. Два майора at 220803Z JUN 25 posts video of "Zaporizhzhia front," showing BM-21 Grad MLRS in action and aerial views of settlements with smoke plumes, indicating offensive operations. Воин DV at 220827Z JUN 25 posts video with a commander of 336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade describing assault on "Komar" settlement, detailing tactical considerations and challenges, confirming ongoing ground assaults. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on claims; LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on actual gains or impact).
  • Logistics & Sustainment: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is conducting a collection for 'Mavic 3T' and 'Mavic 3 Pro' drones for night and day reconnaissance, as well as for food and communication equipment for front-line positions, indicating potential shortfalls at the tactical level. Colonelcassad is also fundraising for 'Black Wolves' detachment, rifle company, and artillery battalion for Starlink, body armor, helmets, medicine, and generators (220704Z JUN 25), indicating broader logistical shortfalls. Два майора at 220804Z JUN 25 posts a recruitment video for the 71st Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment, indicating persistent personnel replenishment needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Information Operations (IO): Intensified "Iran-Israel crisis" fabrication, now claiming "US attacked Iran" (Басурин о главном 220501Z JUN 25, Операция Z 220524Z JUN 25, ASTRA 220515Z JUN 25). RUF channels now falsely claim "Iran confirmed US attacked Iran." RUF is fabricating statements from the IRGC and calling for immediate evacuation of US bases in the region. TASS pushing fabricated statements from Netanyahu thanking Trump for the "strike" and falsely claiming the UN Secretary-General called the strikes a "dangerous escalation." Colonelcassad (220333Z JUN 25) now claims US military sources report the Isfahan underground nuclear complex was deeper and more powerful than expected. TASS (220332Z JUN 25) explicitly linking this fabricated "Trump" action to potential impeachment proceedings. WarGonzo (220349Z JUN 25) states "Tehran officially accused the United States of attacking nuclear facilities." Два майора (220340Z JUN 25) and Дневник Десантника (220342Z JUN 25) are pushing videos of the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bomb. STERNENKO (220410Z JUN 25) amplifies the fabricated "Trump" statements. TASS (220411Z JUN 25) explicitly claims "NASA recorded a powerful heat emission in the area of the Iranian nuclear facility near Fordow shortly before the US announced the airstrike. The New York Times reports this." TASS (220418Z JUN 25) publishes "The US violated international law and the nuclear non-proliferation regime, said the Iranian Foreign Minister." Colonelcassad (220420Z JUN 25) speculates that US-RF talks were intended to soften RF's position ahead of an attack on Iran. Оперативний ЗСУ (220429Z JUN 25) amplifies a false report that "No radiation detected in Persian Gulf countries after US strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites – Saudi nuclear energy regulator." Colonelcassad (220439Z JUN 25) claims "Israel states Iran launched missiles." Colonelcassad (220448Z JUN 25) posts photo message claiming "Iranian missiles attack Tel Aviv and Haifa. Explosions and air defense activity reported." Colonelcassad (220454Z JUN 25, 220504Z JUN 25, 220516Z JUN 25) provides video of alleged Iranian missile attack/aftermath in Haifa and Tel Aviv. ASTRA (220515Z JUN 25) provides video of a fabricated Donald Trump address regarding strikes on Iran. TASS (220524Z JUN 25) claims "No radiation detected outside nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, according to Iran's Nuclear Safety Center." Alex Parker Returns (220607Z JUN 25) promotes the Steve Bannon "insider" narrative, supporting fabricated US involvement. Военкор Котенок (220610Z JUN 25) attempts to link "Obama" attacking Iran to "Trump." TASS (220611Z JUN 25) claims IRGC states targets of Iranian attack in Israel were Ben-Gurion airport, biological research center, and command centers. Операция Z (220614Z JUN 25) and Alex Parker Returns (220628Z JUN 25) continue claims of Iran demanding an emergency UNSC meeting. Военкор Котенок (220616Z JUN 25) shows a map of US bases in the region, implying they are targets. Alex Parker Returns (220623Z JUN 25) details the alleged US strike on Fordow using GBU-57. Alex Parker Returns (220626Z JUN 25) claims oil tankers leaving Strait of Hormuz. TASS (220627Z JUN 25) claims Trump administration expects Iranian retaliation.
    • NEW IO on Iran/Israel/US: TASS (220531Z JUN 25) claims that Milorad Dodik stated the Israel-Iran conflict could escalate to tactical nuclear weapons. Fighterbomber (220531Z JUN 25) claims "USA has 'finally' gotten involved and entered the war between Israel and Iran." ASTRA (220538Z JUN 25) posts photos and videos claiming "Iran attacked Israel, there is destruction and casualties." Colonelcassad (220539Z JUN 25) posts videos of "more consequences" (destruction in Tel Aviv/Haifa). Colonelcassad (220545Z JUN 25) posts Iranian TV report from Fordow claiming "no serious external damage" but smoke plume "beyond the facility," trying to manage the narrative. WarGonzo (220549Z JUN 25) posts videos claiming IAEA reported no radiation increase after US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, further attempting to lend false credibility to the fabricated US strike. Операция Z (220549Z JUN 25) amplifies "Voenkor Russkoy Vesny" claims of "Iran launched missile strike on Israel — series of powerful explosions in Haifa and Tel Aviv," with associated videos. RBK-Ukraine (220600Z JUN 25) propagates the RUF claim of "no radiation increase" from IAEA, further amplifying the fabricated narrative. TASS (220631Z JUN 25) provides multiple photo messages under the caption "What is known about the tenth day of escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran and the US attack." ASTRA (220636Z JUN 25) and Alex Parker Returns (220638Z JUN 25) continue to propagate fabricated Netanyahu quotes thanking Trump for the "strike" and linking peace to strength. Операция Z (220639Z JUN 25) uses photo messages to reinforce the narrative of IAEA assessments and Iranian reactions to "attacks." Два майора (220647Z JUN 25) provides details on the Fordow nuclear facility, attempting to reinforce the "US strike" narrative. WarGonzo (220647Z JUN 25) and Alex Parker Returns (220654Z JUN 25) claim Yemen will officially enter the war, with accompanying political cartoons, further attempting to expand the fabricated conflict. Alex Parker Returns (220650Z JUN 25) posts videos claiming "Iran attacked Tel Aviv and Haifa" with missiles that overcame Israeli air defense, showing destruction. RBK-Ukraine (220654Z JUN 25) reports NBC claims the Trump administration expects Iranian retaliation within 48 hours, amplifying the fabricated US perspective. Север.Реалии (220701Z JUN 25) reports Trump's address confirming air strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities. Alex Parker Returns (220702Z JUN 25) posts videos of Haifa aftermath, claiming rockets arrived too fast for alarms. Операция Z (220705Z JUN 25) posts videos claiming Iran denies US statements about destruction of nuclear facilities, including Fordow, attempting to sow further confusion. Военкор Котенок (220712Z JUN 25) claims new Israeli strikes on Natanz. Операция Z (220715Z JUN 25) reports Saudi Arabia condemning US strikes on Iran. Alex Parker Returns (220709Z JUN 25) continues to propagate conflicting claims about damage and radiation from alleged US strikes. Alex Parker Returns (220709Z JUN 25) also posts photos with caption suggesting the war is against "Kaganat" (Khaganate), an antisemitic trope often used in Russian disinformation. Colonelcassad at 220732Z JUN 25 introduces a statement from US Democratic Representative Don Beyer concerning the fabricated US strike on Iran, further trying to legitimize the narrative. Kotsnews at 220732Z JUN 25 links the US strike on Iran to Ukrainian settlement, indicating the nexus. TASS at 220733Z JUN 25 claims IAEA Director General Grossi is convening an emergency meeting of the IAEA Board of Governors on June 23 due to an "emergency situation" in Iran, an extreme attempt to use international bodies to legitimize the fabricated events. TASS at 220738Z JUN 25 claims the IRGC stated Iran used a Kheibar Shekan medium-range ballistic missile for the first time in a morning attack on Israel. Operatsiya Z at 220740Z JUN 25 amplifies the claim by "Voenkory Russkoy Vesny" that a representative of the Yemeni army (Houthi official Saree) declared the Houthis' intention to enter the conflict, expanding the fabricated war to another actor. TASS at 220744Z JUN 25 quotes the Omani Foreign Ministry stating that the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities threatens conflict expansion and violates international law. TASS at 220749Z JUN 25 claims the WSJ reported that the US informed Iran that the strikes were a one-time operation and not aimed at regime change. TASS at 220757Z JUN 25 quotes Karin Kneissl stating Trump's decision to attack Iranian nuclear facilities was foolish and violated laws of war.
    • NEW IO: Операция Z at 220800Z JUN 25 posts photo messages claiming "British Prime Minister supported US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities," attempting to expand international backing for the fabricated narrative. ASTRA at 220801Z JUN 25 posts photo messages claiming "US used GBU-57 bunker buster bomb for the first time in combat conditions, attacking Iranian nuclear facilities." Colonelcassad at 220802Z JUN 25 posts photo messages regarding a Houthi statement, further integrating them into the fabricated conflict. Poddubny at 220811Z JUN 25 posts video claiming to show "the area of Iranian Fordow under US bunker buster bombs," showing a large explosion. Alex Parker Returns at 220813Z JUN 25 and Voyenkor Kotonok at 220816Z JUN 25 post photos claiming MAXAR images show Iran evacuating uranium from Fordow before the "bombings," suggesting pre-knowledge or pre-emptive action by Iran. RBK-Ukraine at 220817Z JUN 25 reports that "Grossi is convening an emergency IAEA meeting after American strikes on Iran," amplifying the fabricated IAEA involvement. Alex Parker Returns at 220819Z JUN 25 posts photo messages with an antisemitic trope about "Jewish US General Dan Kane" making "satanic gestures" during the "attack." WarGonzo at 220823Z JUN 25 posts photo messages about "Motherland-Mother laid out from 10 thousand candles in Mariupol," a symbolic act for domestic morale boosting. RBK-Ukraine at 220823Z JUN 25 posts video of "a column of smoke rising over the affected nuclear facility Fordow in Iran," further circulating the fabricated "visual evidence." Alex Parker Returns at 220823Z JUN 25 posts a statement from Omani Foreign Ministry condemning US strikes on Iran, reinforcing the false international condemnation. TASS at 220825Z JUN 25 posts photo messages of "White House Situation Room on the night of June 22," attempting to lend further false credibility to the "US strike." Операция Z at 220825Z JUN 25 posts photos claiming "Fordow was evacuated before the strike - satellite recorded the removal of uranium from the facility," another attempt to control the narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • June 22, 1941, Allusion: RUF milbloggers are making direct historical allusions to June 22, 1941 (German invasion of the Soviet Union). TASS (220333Z JUN 25, 220539Z JUN 25) video messages confirm state-level promotion of "Day of Memory and Sorrow" events across Russia, with 1,418 candles lit at the Main Cathedral of the Russian Armed Forces. WarGonzo (220539Z JUN 25) uses "Day of Memory and Sorrow" in photo caption. Филолог в засаде (220415Z JUN 25) explicitly links June 22, 1941 to "lessons." Военкор Котенок (220435Z JUN 25) directly compares Trump to Hitler. Басурин о главном (220445Z JUN 25) posts multiple video messages on the theme of "Day of Memory and Sorrow." ТАСС (220509Z JUN 25) is promoting "declassified FSB documents" regarding "Nazi atrocities in Kherson Oblast," confirming ongoing historical revisionism to demonize Ukraine. ТАСС (220519Z JUN 25) interviews Alexander Khinshtein on how people in Kursk rescued pets from UAF drones, pushing a victim narrative. Басурин о главном (220632Z JUN 25) continues to post photo messages of "Meeting with Eduard Basurin," likely related to these themes. TASS (220706Z JUN 25) continues this narrative by claiming Ukraine used technologies to "re-flash historical memory." Два майора at 220733Z JUN 25 posts video message captioned "To the Day of Memory and Sorrow," with a poem "Requiem" recited by a "Hero of Russia," reinforcing the historical theme. Старше Эдды at 220814Z JUN 25 and 220816Z JUN 25 explicitly states "Donald chose [June 22] relying on the experience of genetic ancestors. It was possible to attack the day before yesterday or tomorrow, but Trump struck exactly today," further tying the fabricated US strike to this historical date. Басурин о главном at 220813Z JUN 25 posts a video related to "Day of Memory and Sorrow." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Verify RUF claims of "regularly grinding down" UAF units near Kutkivka and Topoli (Kharkiv Oblast). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: GEOINT, IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
• CRITICAL: Assess the impact and effectiveness of RUF's alleged destruction of a UAF UAV launch position in Dylyivka. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT, HUMINT).
• CRITICAL: Continue to monitor for any credible evidence or significant international uptake of Russia's increasingly absurd and dangerous fabrications regarding a kinetic Iran-Israel/US conflict, including the latest attempts by Colonelcassad to "debunk" the fabricated "US strikes" by citing lack of physical evidence, while simultaneously propagating new fabricated quotes from US and Israeli officials, and new "confirmations" from "Iranian officials" (TASS, 220319Z JUN 25), and new claims of "Iranian missile attacks on Israel," and claims of tactical nuclear weapons use, and claims of IAEA emergency meetings, and Omani condemnation, and Yemeni involvement. Of particular concern is the propagation of RUF's fabricated narratives by seemingly neutral or Ukrainian sources, highlighting the effectiveness of the disinformation campaign. This now includes new claims of British support for US strikes, specific GBU-57 usage, Houthi statements, and MAXAR imagery of uranium evacuation. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT, ALL-SOURCE).
• CRITICAL: Verify RUF claims of "liberating" Dolhenke and subsequently targeting Redkodub. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: GEOINT, IMINT, HUMINT).
• CRITICAL: Verify RUF claims of "breaking through" UAF defenses towards Siversk (Donetsk Oblast) and Mirnohrad, and assess the meaning of Colonelcassad's "changes on the map" for Donetsk at 220745Z JUN 25. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: GEOINT, IMINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Confirm the specifics and implications of the reported Kellogg-Lukashenka talks in Belarus, especially regarding sanctions relief. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT, SIGINT).
• HIGH: Assess the significance and intent of RUF claims of humanitarian aid drops in Kursk Oblast border regions. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Investigate the specific historical "declassified FSB documents" released by TASS regarding Kherson Oblast, to assess their historical accuracy and the current narrative intent. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
• HIGH: Assess the impact of RUF's use of multi-domain attacks (ballistic missiles, UAVs, guided aerial bombs) in Chernihiv, Sumy, and now Donetsk Oblasts. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA, GEOINT, IMINT).
• HIGH: Monitor RUF milblogger fundraising for drones and supplies to assess tactical level logistical shortfalls. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
• HIGH: Investigate the claims of metal scavenging in remote Russian areas reported by Север.Реалии (220644Z JUN 25) to assess potential domestic economic strain or logistical impacts. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
• HIGH: Assess the specific tactical information and implications of the Dnevnik Desantnika video from Zaporizhzhia (220746Z JUN 25). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: GEOINT, IMINT).
• HIGH: Assess the tactical effectiveness and target of the RUF strike claimed by Narodnaya Militsiya DNR at 220803Z JUN 25, showing pickup truck and armored vehicle being hit. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA, IMINT, OSINT).
• HIGH: Assess the tactical implications of the BM-21 Grad MLRS use on the Zaporizhzhia front by Два майора at 220803Z JUN 25. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA, IMINT, OSINT).
• HIGH: Monitor the stated recruitment efforts of the 71st Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment at 220804Z JUN 25 to assess their personnel needs and training tempo. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, SIGINT).
• HIGH: Verify the claims of the 336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade commander regarding assault tactics and capture of Komar settlement, as reported by Воин DV at 220827Z JUN 25. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: GEOINT, IMINT, HUMINT).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Ground Capabilities: RUF maintains capability for high-intensity, multi-directional ground assaults, particularly on the Donetsk axis and increasingly on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes. Forces are supported by intense KAB, UAV, and TOS-1A thermobaric strikes, and now confirmed tactical aviation support with Ka-52M helicopters and guided aerial bombs on Sumy, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia. Сили оборони Півдня України (220544Z JUN 25) confirms active use of aviation in the Orikhiv direction. Rybar's "Historical Moment" photos combined with TASS "Day of Memory and Sorrow" videos and Филолог в засаде's commentary indicate preparations for ground action under a historical narrative. Воин DV's video confirms active drone surveillance and strikes against military targets. The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade reports repelling numerous RUF ground attacks in the Pokrovsk direction, demonstrating RUF's continued offensive intent despite heavy losses. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (220647Z JUN 25) posts graphic photo messages showing deceased RUF personnel on the Pokrovsk direction, confirming heavy losses for RUF in ongoing ground combat. Sirskyi's statement on the prevention of Pokrovsk's capture due to the Kursk operation suggests a diversionary intent or miscalculation by RUF (220701Z JUN 25). Sirskyi also states RUF army increases by 8-9 thousand monthly, preparing for a war of attrition (220716Z JUN 25). Colonelcassad's map updates at 220745Z JUN 25 suggest ongoing territorial claims. Narodnaya Militsiya DNR at 220803Z JUN 25 provides video evidence of hunting UAF equipment and UAV control points. Два майора at 220803Z JUN 25 provides video of BM-21 Grad MLRS in action on the Zaporizhzhia front, confirming active artillery support for ground operations. Воин DV at 220827Z JUN 25 provides direct testimony from a RUF commander on assault tactics and objectives in Komar settlement, confirming continued offensive operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Air/Missile Capabilities: RUF possesses and effectively employs a diverse range of missile and UAV assets for large-scale, multi-wave attacks. New ballistic missile threats to Kharkiv, Poltava, and Chernihiv Oblasts. New aviation weapon threat for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a reconnaissance UAV detected. Russian MoD confirms success in downing 11 Ukrainian UAVs, suggesting continued robust air defense capabilities for RUF territory. AV БогомаZ reports 9 UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast, confirming RUF's defensive air capabilities. RBK-Ukraine (220539Z JUN 25, 220754Z JUN 25) confirms RUF strikes on Odesa Oblast this night. RUF launched 47 drones and 2 Iskander-M missiles this night. Launches of guided aerial bombs on Donetsk Oblast (220633Z JUN 25) and Kharkiv Oblast (220715Z JUN 25), and now Zaporizhzhia Oblast (220816Z JUN 25) demonstrate extended tactical air strike range. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports massive strikes on Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, and Druzhkivka overnight (220721Z JUN 25). MoD Russia video shows Strela-10 SAM system destroying enemy reconnaissance UAVs (220720Z JUN 25). Dnevnik Desantnika at 220746Z JUN 25 shows drone footage of strike effects in Zaporizhzhia, confirming persistent aerial activity. New ballistic missile threat declared at 220800Z JUN 25 and 220826Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Information Warfare Capabilities: RUF's IO apparatus is highly capable of sophisticated, multi-faceted disinformation campaigns, now escalated to direct fabrication of kinetic events on Ukrainian soil and explicitly promoting a global conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the US, including direct US kinetic involvement attributed to "Trump" (ASTRA 220515Z JUN 25, Операция Z 220524Z JUN 25, Fighterbomber 220531Z JUN 25, ASTRA 220636Z JUN 25, Alex Parker Returns 220638Z JUN 25), with fabricated "confirmations" from Iranian officials and fake news headlines. The use of GBU-57 MOP video (Два майора, 220340Z JUN 25, Alex Parker Returns 220623Z JUN 25, Poddubny 220811Z JUN 25, ASTRA 220801Z JUN 25) is a new visual amplification of the fabricated "US strike." The explicit use of the June 22, 1941, historical analogy by multiple milbloggers and state-affiliated channels (TASS 220539Z JUN 25, WarGonzo 220539Z JUN 25, Два майора 220733Z JUN 25, Старше Эдды 220814Z JUN 25, Басурин о главном 220813Z JUN 25) is a significant, new IO tactic designed to prepare the domestic audience for a major offensive. The addition of TASS (220411Z JUN 25) using alleged "NASA" reports and (220524Z JUN 25) "Iranian Nuclear Safety Center" reports to corroborate fabricated strikes is a significant escalation in attempts to lend credibility. TASS (220418Z JUN 25) quoting "Iranian Foreign Minister" further indicates a coordinated effort to fabricate official responses. Colonelcassad's latest claims of "Iranian missiles attack Tel Aviv and Haifa" (220448Z JUN 25, 220504Z JUN 25, 220516Z JUN 25) with accompanying video illustrate the ongoing real-time fabrication, further amplified by ASTRA (220538Z JUN 25) and Операция Z (220549Z JUN 25). WarGonzo (220549Z JUN 25) attempting to "debunk" radiation concerns using "IAEA" is another subtle IO tactic, now amplified by RBK-Ukraine (220600Z JUN 25). TASS (220611Z JUN 25) claiming IRGC target list indicates further specific fabrications. TASS (220631Z JUN 25) is actively cataloging the "tenth day of escalation" of the fabricated conflict, attempting to establish a false timeline. Alex Parker Returns (220650Z JUN 25) continues to circulate fabricated videos of "Iranian attacks" on Tel Aviv/Haifa. WarGonzo (220647Z JUN 25) and Alex Parker Returns (220654Z JUN 25) introducing Yemen's "official entry into the war" demonstrates a willingness to continuously expand the scope of the fabricated conflict. RBK-Ukraine's (220654Z JUN 25) reporting of NBC claims about Trump anticipating Iranian retaliation further highlights the insidious nature of RUF's IO in seeding narratives within legitimate media. Alex Parker Returns' new post regarding the war being against "Kaganat" (220709Z JUN 25) injects antisemitic themes into the narrative, consistent with previous RUF IO. TASS's statement about "re-flashing historical memory" in Ukraine (220706Z JUN 25) continues the historical revisionism. The new TASS claim about IAEA emergency meeting (220733Z JUN 25) and IRGC ballistic missile use (220738Z JUN 25) and Omani condemnation (220744Z JUN 25), along with WSJ reporting of US messages to Iran (220749Z JUN 25) and Karin Kneissl's statement (220757Z JUN 25) further illustrates the depth and breadth of this fabricated reality. New claims of British support (Операция Z 220800Z JUN 25) for US strikes, and the use of MAXAR imagery for "uranium evacuation" (Alex Parker Returns 220813Z JUN 25, Военкор Котенок 220816Z JUN 25, Операция Z 220825Z JUN 25) prior to the "strikes" is an advanced narrative control. RBK-Ukraine (220817Z JUN 25) amplifying the fabricated IAEA emergency meeting. Alex Parker Returns (220819Z JUN 25) introduces overt antisemitic tropes by linking a "Jewish US General" to "satanic gestures." TASS (220825Z JUN 25) publishing "White House Situation Room" photos is a new attempt to legitimize the "US strike." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Intentions: RUF intends to:
  • Degrade Ukrainian Energy/Industrial Capacity: Continue large-scale strikes on strategic energy and industrial infrastructure (Kremenchuk) and disrupt logistical nodes. Confirmed by 425 strikes in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and new strikes in Odesa Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Terrorize Civilian Population: Maximize civilian casualties through the use of anti-personnel munitions and indiscriminate shelling (Kremenchuk, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Odesa, Druzhkivka). Confirmed by Office of the Prosecutor General (220742Z JUN 25). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Achieve Operational Breakthrough: Maintain severe pressure on the Donetsk axis and initiate a major ground offensive on the Sumy axis, while also pinning down UAF forces in Kharkiv and Orikhiv. The June 22, 1941, historical allusion, now amplified by state media commemorations, strongly suggests RUF intends to launch a significant, potentially multi-axis, offensive starting around this date. The direct recruitment efforts also support this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Divert Global Attention: Utilize increasingly absurd and dangerous fabrications (false "Iran-Israel/US war," including false US kinetic involvement attributed to "Trump," with fabricated "confirmations" and "official statements," and now claims of tactical nuclear weapons use, and "Yemen's entry into the war," IAEA emergency meetings, and antisemitic narratives) to create global chaos, justify further escalation, and draw international resources away from Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Demoralize UAF and Incite War Crimes: Promote narratives that normalize violence against civilians and combatants (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС 220558Z JUN 25 video). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Provide Diplomatic Cover: Use deceptive "peace proposals" to mask kinetic and informational escalations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Prepare for War of Attrition: Sirskyi's statement that RUF army increases by 8-9 thousand monthly and is preparing for a war of attrition (220716Z JUN 25) confirms this long-term intent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• RUF: Continued strategic air/missile targeting (Kremenchuk, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Odesa, Druzhkivka). Increased ground combat claims and potential escalation on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes, and confirmed sustained assaults in Orikhiv. Confirmed use of TOS-1A systems and Ka-52M helicopter strikes. Launches of guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast are a new development, now also observed in Donetsk Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast, and Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Critical escalation in IO, with direct fabrication of kinetic events inside Ukraine and the global crisis narrative (Iran-Israel/US war, including false Israeli strikes on Iran, and now anticipated Iranian drone/missile strikes on Israel, and false US strikes on Iran attributed to "Trump," now with fabricated "confirmations" from Iranian and Israeli officials and UN statements, and new claims of tactical nuclear weapons use, IAEA emergency meetings, Omani condemnation, and "Yemen's entry into the war," and the new antisemitic tropes). The deliberate effort to attribute fake US kinetic actions to "Trump" (ASTRA 220515Z JUN 25, Операция Z 220524Z JUN 25, Fighterbomber 220531Z JUN 25) is a new, dangerous psychological warfare tactic. The explicit use of the June 22, 1941, historical analogy by multiple RUF milbloggers and state-level promotion of "Day of Memory and Sorrow" events is a significant, new IO tactic. The addition of TASS (220411Z JUN 25) using alleged NASA data, and (220524Z JUN 25) "Iranian Nuclear Safety Center" reports to "corroborate" fabricated strikes, and direct quotes from "Iranian Foreign Minister" further indicate a sophisticated and coordinated disinformation campaign. The rapid proliferation of claims regarding "Yemen's entry into the war" indicates rapid expansion of the fabricated conflict. The use of recruitment videos (Два майора 220804Z JUN 25) indicates efforts to maintain personnel strength. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: Successful AD against high-volume attacks and rapid tracking/stand-down of UAV threats, along with timely ballistic missile threat warnings. Confirmed AD activity in Odesa and now eastern Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv. Successfully neutralized 28/47 drones and 2 Iskander-M missiles. Continued deep strike capabilities against RUF logistics, evidenced by successful UAV attacks in Smolensk and Bryansk Oblasts. Adaptation to drone warfare (STERNENKO 220802Z JUN 25 video on drone reusability). Proactive diplomatic IO. Effective defensive operations in Pokrovsk direction, inflicting losses on RUF. Sirskyi's statements on UAF advances in Yunakiivka and control of Kursk territory, and the shift from "deaf defense" (220701Z JUN 25, 220703Z JUN 25, 220722Z JUN 25) indicate a proactive approach. Sirskyi also highlights the effectiveness of Ukrainian DeepStrike (220707Z JUN 25). BUTUSOV PLUS at 220736Z JUN 25 and Anatoliy Shtefan at 220755Z JUN 25 provide evidence of effective UAF ground and personnel targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• RUF: RUF milbloggers engaging in direct fundraising for reconnaissance drones and front-line supplies (food, comms, Starlink, body armor, helmets, medicine, generators), indicating potential localized shortfalls or an attempt to bypass official supply chains. Север.Реалии's report on metal scavenging for sale in Russia suggests potential broader economic/resource strain or criminal activity. Recruitment videos (Два майора 220804Z JUN 25) indicate ongoing personnel needs. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: NGU "Rubizh" brigade fundraising for equipment restoration indicates some tactical level resource constraints due to combat. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports on discussions about weakening sanctions on Belarus (220802Z JUN 25), potentially impacting RUF logistical resupply routes. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• RUF: C2 effectively coordinates large-scale, multi-domain kinetic operations. The extreme nature of the IO campaign suggests a highly centralized, calculated decision to abandon all pretense of truth for a global impact. This is further evidenced by the rapid and coordinated propagation of the fabricated US strike on Iran by multiple RUF-affiliated channels, the synchronized use of the June 22, 1941, analogy and WWII historical revisionism, and the attempt by some milbloggers (Colonelcassad) to manage the narrative without fully retracting it. The addition of "NASA" and "Iranian/Saudi official" statements and claims of IAEA emergency meetings into the fabricated narrative further indicates a highly sophisticated and centralized IO control. The coordinated release of fabricated images like the "White House Situation Room" (TASS 220825Z JUN 25) further indicates centralized control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on kinetic/ground C2; HIGH CONFIDENCE on calculated IO escalation).
• UAF: UAF C2 demonstrates effective real-time AD response, ongoing ISR/targeting coordination for deep strikes, and adaptable force generation. The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade's detailed reports confirm effective tactical C2 in defensive operations. The rapid reporting by Air Force on UAV and missile neutralization indicates effective post-strike BDA and public communication. Sirskyi's public comments on military strategy, force generation, and drone capabilities (220701Z, 220704Z, 220705Z, 220707Z, 220719Z JUN 25) indicate transparency and confidence in UAF C2. The General Staff's meeting with media (220750Z JUN 25) further indicates confidence and transparency in communication. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.5. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Assess if the extreme escalation in RUF's IO (Iranian strike on Ukraine, Israeli strikes on Iran, US war with Iran, US strikes on Iran attributed to "Trump," fabricated confirmations, and the June 22, 1941, analogy, including the latest attempts to "debunk" elements of the fabricated narrative, while simultaneously introducing new fabricated official statements and "Iranian confirmations," and the new attempt to use "NASA" data to lend credibility, and claims of tactical nuclear weapons use, IAEA emergency meetings, and Omani condemnation, and Yemeni involvement) is a precursor to a major false-flag event or a direct military escalation, and identify potential targets or methods. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Determine the specific RUF units and tactics employed in the claimed advances towards Siversk, Mirnohrad, Dolhenke, Redkodub, and Muravka, and on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes, and the Orikhiv direction, to assess their impact on UAF defensive operations. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: GEOINT, IMINT, SIGINT).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Defensive Posture: UAF AD maintains a high state of readiness. Ground forces are engaged in robust defensive operations on all critical axes, including responding to pressure in Kharkiv, Pokrovsk, and Orikhiv directions. The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade's successful defensive operations in Pokrovsk confirm robust UAF defensive posture. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (220356Z JUN 25, 220558Z JUN 25, 220750Z JUN 25) has released updated estimated RUF losses. Operational UAF reports confirm 1100 RUF personnel liquidated. Сили оборони Півдня України (220656Z JUN 25) indicates continued offensive operations against RUF rear areas. Sirskyi states that the capture of Pokrovsk was prevented by the Kursk operation (220701Z JUN 25) and that the situation in Sumy Oblast is stabilized with UAF advances (220702Z JUN 25). He also notes that UAF controls 90 sq km of Kursk Oblast (220703Z JUN 25). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Offensive Capabilities: UAF demonstrates effective deep strike capabilities against RUF logistics (e.g., Smolensk and Bryansk UAV attacks) and adaptable offensive capabilities via drone units. Sirskyi highlights the impressive effectiveness of Ukrainian DeepStrike (220707Z JUN 25). He also states UAF will not remain in "deaf defense" (220722Z JUN 25). BUTUSOV PLUS at 220736Z JUN 25 provides evidence of UAF effective counter-operations against RUF ground assets. STERNENKO at 220802Z JUN 25 posts a video on drone reusability, demonstrating continuous innovation in drone warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Readiness: UAF components continue to demonstrate operational readiness. Sirskyi indicates a shift to army corps will enable counter-offensives (220701Z JUN 25). He also stated mobilization should not be a shock and that TCCs must change (220719Z JUN 25). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes:
  • AD Engagement: Successful AD engagement against a significant portion of incoming missiles/UAVs and rapid tracking and stand-down of UAV threats. Successful interception of 9 UAVs over Bryansk Oblast. Confirmed AD response in Odesa Oblast and eastern Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv. Neutralized 28/47 drones and 2 Iskander-M missiles from the night attack. AD assets engaged with RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Sumy Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Deep Strike Capabilities: Successful UAF UAV attacks against RUF targets in Smolensk and Bryansk Oblasts. Continued UAF long-range striking capability in Southern direction (220656Z JUN 25). Sirskyi highlights effectiveness of Ukrainian DeepStrike (220707Z JUN 25) and total damages to RUF industrial complex (220701Z JUN 25).
  • Ground Tactics: Successful raid by the 63rd Mechanized Brigade, taking RUF POWs. The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade successfully repelled 35 RUF attacks in Pokrovsk direction, inflicting significant losses. Prevention of Pokrovsk's capture due to Kursk operation (220701Z JUN 25). Stabilization of Sumy Oblast and advances in Yunakiivka (220702Z JUN 25). Control of 90 sq km of Kursk Oblast (220703Z JUN 25). BUTUSOV PLUS at 220736Z JUN 25 demonstrates UAF effectiveness in ground engagement in Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Force Adaptation: Operationalization of the Grouping of Forces of Unmanned Systems. Sirskyi praises "Madyar" for his work with the Unmanned Systems Forces (220724Z JUN 25). UAF is receiving light aircraft to shoot down Shaheds (220705Z JUN 25). Sirskyi states UAF will not remain in "deaf defense" and is shifting tactics (220706Z JUN 25, 220722Z JUN 25). STERNENKO at 220802Z JUN 25 highlights ongoing innovation in drone technology. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Diplomatic Initiative: Announcement of a "month of diplomatic pressure" on Russia. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports on discussions in Belarus regarding sanctions relief (220802Z JUN 25), indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF Attrition: Operational UAF reports confirm 1100 RUF personnel liquidated in the past day, with graphic evidence of casualties provided by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (220558Z JUN 25, 220647Z JUN 25, 220825Z JUN 25) and Шеф Hayabusa (220528Z JUN 25), and Оперативний ЗСУ (220616Z JUN 25). Anatoliy Shtefan (220755Z JUN 25) also provides graphic evidence of RUF casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Setbacks:
  • Strategic Infrastructure Damage: Successful RUF strike on Kremenchuk energy infrastructure poses a significant long-term risk. ASTRA reports a fuel depot fire under occupied Tokmak (220712Z JUN 25). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Civilian Casualties/Risk: Persistent strikes on Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, and Kremenchuk continue to cause civilian casualties and terrorize populations. 425 strikes on 12 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast causing civilian damage. РБК-Україна confirms destruction in Kramatorsk and new strikes in Odesa Oblast (220754Z JUN 25). STERNENKO (220519Z JUN 25) confirms a 17-year-old killed in Sloviansk. ASTRA (220600Z JUN 25) confirms two killed and 13 injured in Donetsk Oblast. Office of the Prosecutor General confirms damage in Odesa (220709Z JUN 25) and civilian casualties in Sloviansk/Kramatorsk (220742Z JUN 25). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports massive strikes on Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, and Druzhkivka (220721Z JUN 25). Colonelcassad at 220820Z JUN 25 confirms ongoing kinetic activity in Sloviansk/Kramatorsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Escalated Ground Pressure: RUF claims of breakthrough towards Mirnohrad, the capture of Dolhenke, and active combat in Sumy, along with claims of "grinding down" UAF reinforcements in Kharkiv and sustained assaults in Orikhiv, represent increased pressure on critical axes. The graphic imagery from Pokrovsk by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (220647Z JUN 25) confirms the intensity and human cost of the defensive operations. Colonelcassad's map updates (220745Z JUN 25) indicate claimed territorial shifts. Narodnaya Militsiya DNR and Два майора (220803Z JUN 25) provide visual evidence of RUF kinetic operations, and Воин DV (220827Z JUN 25) provides first-hand account of ground assaults. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on claims).
  • Hybrid Warfare Impact: The extreme escalation of RUF's IO, particularly the false Iranian strike claim, fabricated Israeli strikes, "US war with Iran" narratives, and now false claims of US military strikes on Iran attributed to "Trump," combined with fabricated confirmations, fake news headlines, fabricated quotes from Trump and Netanyahu, "Iranian official confirmations" and the June 22, 1941, analogy, and WWII revisionism (Kherson FSB documents), and the new use of GBU-57 MOP video, and TASS's use of "NASA" and "Iranian/Saudi official" statements, and the latest claims of "Iranian missiles attack Tel Aviv and Haifa," and claims of tactical nuclear weapons use, IAEA emergency meetings, Omani condemnation, and "Yemen's entry into the war" poses an EXTREME risk of global diversion and legitimizing false pretexts for RUF escalation. The propagation of RUF's "no radiation" claim by RBK-Ukraine (220600Z JUN 25) highlights the effectiveness of the RUF disinformation. The rapid propagation of fabricated narratives by seemingly neutral or Ukrainian sources is a significant concern. New claims of British support, MAXAR imagery of uranium evacuation, and antisemitic tropes (Alex Parker Returns 220819Z JUN 25) intensify this. RBK-Ukraine (220817Z JUN 25) amplifying the IAEA emergency meeting is a particular concern. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Immediate Air Threats: While Odesa UAV threat was called off and Zaporizhzhia declared all-clear, confirmed activity and new ballistic missile and aviation threats indicate sustained RUF air/missile activity. New confirmed strikes in Odesa. Ballistic missile threats to Chernihiv and Kyiv. Guided aerial bombs on Sumy, Donetsk, Kharkiv, and now Zaporizhzhia. Reconnaissance UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Kharkiv. New ballistic missile threat declared at 220657Z JUN 25, 220800Z JUN 25, and 220826Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Logistical Strain: Fundraising efforts by the NGU "Rubizh" brigade and Sirskyi's comments on TCCs (220719Z JUN 25) suggest some resource strain on equipment and personnel. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Air Defense Munitions & Platforms: Continued high-volume RUF air and missile strikes necessitate sustained, robust replenishment of AD munitions and platforms, particularly for ballistic/hypersonic threats and guided aerial bombs. New light aircraft for Shahed interception are being acquired.
• Long-Range Precision Strike Assets: Continued requirement for long-range precision strike assets to interdict RUF logistics and high-value targets, particularly with confirmed UAF successes in Southern direction. Sirskyi highlights the effectiveness of DeepStrike.
• Counter-Drone Capabilities: Urgent requirement for advanced EW and kinetic counter-drone systems to protect UAF drone teams and communications and counter RUF reconnaissance UAVs. 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade's success in neutralizing 135 enemy drones highlights the effectiveness and need for more counter-drone systems. Sirskyi notes UAF advantage in FPVs but RUF advantage in fiber-optic drones. STERNENKO (220802Z JUN 25) highlights innovative approaches for drone survivability.
• Ground Force Sustainment: Consistent supply of ammunition, medical supplies, and protective equipment for forces engaged in high-intensity defensive operations, as indicated by NGU "Rubizh" fundraising and graphic evidence of casualties in Pokrovsk direction. Sirskyi's comments on mobilization suggest personnel replenishment is also a focus.

3.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• NONE.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian:
  • CRITICAL ESCALATION: "Iran-Israel/US War" Fabrication: RUF channels continue to explicitly fabricate kinetic events related to a global crisis. This now includes:
    • False claims of an Iranian MRBM strike on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (previous report).
    • New false claims of Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in Isfahan (previous report).
    • New explicit claims that Iranian air defense is repelling Israeli drone attacks, and "Iranian drones are heading to Israel." This is followed by a prediction of "Iranian missile strikes expected tonight or in the morning." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • CRITICAL: Repeated and amplified explicit claims attributing to "Trump," of "successful US Air Force attacks on three nuclear facilities in Iran" (ASTRA 220515Z JUN 25, Операция Z 220524Z JUN 25, Басурин о главном 220501Z JUN 25, Fighterbomber 220531Z JUN 25, Alex Parker Returns 220623Z JUN 25, ASTRA 220636Z JUN 25, Alex Parker Returns 220638Z JUN 25, Север.Реалии 220701Z JUN 25), including specific claims of a US aircraft dropping a "full combat load of bombs" on the Fordow nuclear facility, and Fox News footage of B-2 bombers and map of strike locations. This is the most dangerous escalation yet, directly fabricating US kinetic involvement and directly linking it to a US political figure to lend false credibility. RUF sources claimed Trump would issue an address to the nation about this. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS even provides a fabricated video of "Trump's address to the nation" regarding "precision strikes." STERNENKO (220410Z JUN 25) amplifies these fabricated Trump statements. Оперативний ЗСУ (220453Z JUN 25) amplifies CNN report on "Trump Administration" informing Republicans before strikes. Colonelcassad at 220732Z JUN 25 introduces a statement from US Democratic Representative Don Beyer concerning the fabricated US strike on Iran, further trying to legitimize the narrative. TASS at 220749Z JUN 25 claims the WSJ reported that the US informed Iran that the strikes were a one-time operation and not aimed at regime change. TASS at 220757Z JUN 25 quotes Karin Kneissl stating Trump's decision to attack Iranian nuclear facilities was foolish and violated laws of war. Операция Z at 220800Z JUN 25 now claims "British Prime Minister supported US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities." ASTRA at 220801Z JUN 25 explicitly states "US first used GBU-57 bunker buster bomb in combat conditions, attacking Iranian nuclear facilities." Poddubny at 220811Z JUN 25 posts video claiming to show "the area of Iranian Fordow under US bunker buster bombs," visually reinforcing the false claim. TASS at 220825Z JUN 25 posts "White House Situation Room" photos to lend false credibility. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • **CRITICAL: Colonelcassad and TASS are now claiming "Iranian officials confirmed US attacked Iran at 0230 night hitting nuclear facilities." (TASS 220319Z JUN 25, WarGonzo 220349Z JUN 25, Colonelcassad 220545Z JUN 25, Операция Z 220705Z JUN 25). This is immediately followed by fabricated quotes from the IRGC and "Iranian TV" calls for immediate evacuation of US bases in the region. TASS (220432Z JUN 25) claims "Iran requested an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council." Colonelcassad (220439Z JUN 25) claims "Israel states Iran launched missiles." TASS (220611Z JUN 25) claims IRGC states targets of Iranian attack in Israel were Ben-Gurion airport, biological research center, and command centers. Colonelcassad (220448Z JUN 25, 220504Z JUN 25) posts photo/video messages claiming "Iranian missiles attack Tel Aviv and Haifa. Explosions and air defense activity reported." Colonelcassad (220516Z JUN 25) posts video of alleged aftermath of Iranian strikes in Tel Aviv and Haifa, amplified by ASTRA (220538Z JUN 25) and Операция Z (220549Z JUN 25), and Alex Parker Returns (220650Z JUN 25, 220702Z JUN 25). Alex Parker Returns (220628Z JUN 25) amplifies Iran's demand for UNSC meeting. Оперативний ЗСУ (220710Z JUN 25) also posts videos claiming Iran attacked Israel with ballistic missiles. TASS at 220738Z JUN 25 claims the IRGC stated Iran used a Kheibar Shekan medium-range ballistic missile for the first time in a morning attack on Israel. Colonelcassad at 220802Z JUN 25 posts photo messages on a Houthi statement, integrating them into the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • CRITICAL: Colonelcassad posted a fabricated New York Times front page screenshot declaring "U.S. Enters War With Iran" with sub-headlines about President stating military struck key nuclear sites. This is a direct attempt to manufacture visual "evidence" for the global crisis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • TASS and Colonelcassad are now falsely quoting Netanyahu thanking Trump for the "strike" and falsely claiming the UN Secretary-General called the "US strikes on Iran" a "dangerous escalation." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (220346Z JUN 25) is amplifying a fabricated Netanyahu statement praising the "bold decision" to strike Iran. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • TASS (220531Z JUN 25) introduces a new dangerous claim that Milorad Dodik stated the Israel-Iran conflict could escalate to tactical nuclear weapons use. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Colonelcassad (220333Z JUN 25) is now attempting to partially debunk the fabricated "US strikes" by claiming the underground nuclear complex in Isfahan was deeper and more powerful than expected. TASS (220332Z JUN 25) is pushing a narrative that Trump's decision to strike Iran without Congressional approval could lead to impeachment. Colonelcassad (220420Z JUN 25) speculates about US-RF talks softening RF's position prior to the "attack" on Iran. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Два майора (220340Z JUN 25) and Дневник Десантника (220342Z JUN 25) are explicitly promoting videos of the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bomb, implying its use. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Colonelcassad (220345Z JUN 25) attempts to show "Iranians are not impressed" with the "historic strike." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Два майора (220346Z JUN 25) is circulating a fabricated Fars report claiming ~50 large oil tankers are attempting to leave the Strait of Hormuz. Alex Parker Returns (220626Z JUN 25) amplifies the claim about oil tankers leaving Strait of Hormuz. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF attempting to pre-emptively counter the fabricated narrative by claiming "Iranians report in the media that enriched uranium was long ago and previously removed from nuclear centers." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns at 220813Z JUN 25, Военкор Котенок at 220816Z JUN 25, and Операция Z at 220825Z JUN 25 post fabricated MAXAR images and claims that Fordow was evacuated and uranium removed prior to the "bombing." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • TASS continuing to propagate the narrative that "the USA has not notified Israel of its decision to enter the war with Iran." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • TASS (220411Z JUN 25) claims "NASA recorded a powerful heat emission in the area of the Iranian nuclear facility near Fordow." TASS (220418Z JUN 25) claims "The US violated international law and the nuclear non-proliferation regime, said the Iranian Foreign Minister." Оперативний ЗСУ (220429Z JUN 25) amplifies the false report that "No radiation detected in Persian Gulf countries after US strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites – Saudi nuclear energy regulator." TASS (220524Z JUN 25) claims "No radioactive contamination outside nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, according to Iran's Nuclear Safety Center." WarGonzo (220549Z JUN 25) reinforces this "no radiation" claim using "IAEA." RBK-Ukraine (220600Z JUN 25) also propagates the "no radiation" claim from Iran after US strikes. TASS at 220733Z JUN 25 claims IAEA Director General Grossi is convening an emergency meeting of the IAEA Board of Governors on June 23 due to an "emergency situation" in Iran. TASS at 220744Z JUN 25 quotes the Omani Foreign Ministry stating that the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities threatens conflict expansion and violates international law. Alex Parker Returns at 220823Z JUN 25 posts the Omani Foreign Ministry statement. RBK-Ukraine at 220817Z JUN 25 reports that "Grossi is convening an emergency IAEA meeting after American strikes on Iran." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • NEW: WarGonzo (220647Z JUN 25) and Alex Parker Returns (220654Z JUN 25) introduce the new narrative that "Yemen will officially enter the war," expanding the fabricated conflict scope. RBK-Ukraine (220654Z JUN 25) reports NBC claims Trump admin expects Iranian retaliation within 48 hours, feeding into the fabricated US perspective. Военкор Котенок (220712Z JUN 25) claims new Israeli strikes on Natanz. Операция Z (220715Z JUN 25) reports Saudi Arabia condemning US strikes on Iran. Operatsiya Z at 220740Z JUN 25 amplifies the claim of Yemeni (Houthi) intention to enter the conflict. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS at 220811Z JUN 25 reports NBC News claims "Trump administration is preparing for possible Iranian retaliation within 48 hours." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • CRITICAL: RUF milbloggers are making direct historical allusions to the start of WWII, with Colonelcassad, Дневник Десантника (220430Z JUN 25), Басурин о главном (220445Z JUN 25), and Два майора quoting Hitler's statement on June 22, 1941. TASS (220333Z JUN 25, 220539Z JUN 25) released multiple video and photo messages from "Day of Memory and Sorrow" events across Russia, lighting 1,418 candles at the Main Cathedral of the Russian Armed Forces. WarGonzo (220539Z JUN 25) uses "Day of Memory and Sorrow" in photo caption. Rybar's multiple "Historical Moment" photo messages also likely contribute. Филолог в засаде (220415Z JUN 25) explicitly reinforces the June 22, 1941 historical analogy. Военкор Котенок (220435Z JUN 25) explicitly links Trump's fabricated strike to Hitler's 22 June action. ТАСС (220305Z JUN 25, 220509Z JUN 25) is actively spreading disinformation through "declassified FSB documents" claiming German-fascist occupiers shot about 4,000 people in Oleshek district of Kherson Oblast in 1941-1943. Басурин о главном (220632Z JUN 25) continues to post photo messages of "Meeting with Eduard Basurin," likely related to these themes. TASS (220706Z JUN 25) continues this narrative by claiming Ukraine used technologies to "re-flash historical memory." Два майора at 220733Z JUN 25 posts commemorative video on "Day of Memory and Sorrow." Старше Эдды at 220814Z JUN 25 and 220816Z JUN 25 explicitly states "Donald chose [June 22] relying on the experience of genetic ancestors. It was possible to attack the day before yesterday or tomorrow, but Trump struck exactly today," further reinforcing this dangerous historical parallel. Басурин о главном at 220813Z JUN 25 posts a video for "Day of Memory and Sorrow." WarGonzo at 220823Z JUN 25 posts photos of "Motherland-Mother laid out from 10 thousand candles in Mariupol," a symbolic act for domestic morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • TASS (220302Z JUN 25, 220401Z JUN 25, 220519Z JUN 25) released video messages claiming RUF military drones dropped food for residents in "occupied by AFU settlements" and discussed helping pensioners and rescuing pets from UAF drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • TASS (220643Z JUN 25) reports Dodik claims threats over contact with Russia, framing Russia as a victim of international pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Север.Реалии (220644Z JUN 25) reports on metal scavenging from defunct infrastructure in rural Russia, which could be framed as a sign of economic struggle or opportunistic activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Alex Parker Returns at 220808Z JUN 25 posts photos with a caption that includes "Lviv pogrom" and antisemitic tropes, indicating a continued effort to inject hateful content and historical revisionism into the narrative. TASS at 220808Z JUN 25 quotes US Senator Chris Murphy saying Iran was not close to creating nuclear weapons and US-Iran talks could have succeeded, which could be an attempt to introduce counter-narratives or create confusion within RUF's own IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Incitement to War Crimes: RUF-affiliated channels continue to openly call to "finish off the survivors" and promote fabricated stories of assassinating UAF soldiers. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts videos of Ukrainian drones being targeted with "Fagot" ATGM (220701Z JUN 25), promoting the destruction of Ukrainian assets. Narodnaya Militsiya DNR at 220803Z JUN 25 promotes "Hunting for equipment and UAV control points of the AFU," indicating aggressive targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Morale Boosting/Justification: Milbloggers promote claims of battlefield successes and actively amplifying "beautiful video" of the Kremenchuk strike. Воин DV's video of drone strikes and surveillance serves this purpose, as well as Colonelcassad's claim of an M109 SAU destruction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (220600Z JUN 25) is engaged in fundraising for military equipment, indicating a direct involvement in or support of military operations. Colonelcassad fundraising for Starlink, body armor, etc. (220704Z JUN 25) also indicates direct support for frontline units. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports massive strikes on Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, and Druzhkivka overnight (220721Z JUN 25). MoD Russia video shows SAM system destroying enemy reconnaissance UAVs (220720Z JUN 25). Новости Москвы (220716Z JUN 25) promotes unrelated positive news about flowers blooming in Moscow, a common tactic to divert from conflict. Dnevnik Desantnika at 220746Z JUN 25 posts video of strike effects in Zaporizhzhia, aiming to boost morale. Два майора at 220803Z JUN 25 posts video of BM-21 Grad MLRS on Zaporizhzhia front. Два майора at 220815Z JUN 25 posts video of "Kupyansk direction" showing drone activity and strikes on UAF positions and personnel. Воин DV at 220827Z JUN 25 provides an interview with a RUF commander, promoting successes in assaults. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Deceptive Diplomacy: Russia's public "peace proposal" for 22 JUN remains a clear deception tactic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Ukrainian:
  • Transparency and Warning: Timely and accurate reporting of air raid alerts and all-clear statuses. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (220356Z JUN 25, 220358Z JUN 25, 220501Z JUN 25, 220502Z JUN 25, 220558Z JUN 25, 220613Z JUN 25, 220750Z JUN 25) provides operational updates on estimated RUF losses and commemorates "Day of Mourning and Remembrance" for WWII victims. Оперативний ЗСУ (220403Z JUN 25) confirms 1100 RUF personnel liquidated. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (220410Z JUN 25, 220616Z JUN 25, 220648Z JUN 25, 220812Z JUN 25, 220825Z JUN 25) reports on RUF strikes, and (220557Z JUN 25) observes a minute of silence. Oleksandr Vilkul (220447Z JUN 25) provides a controlled situation report for Kryvyi Rih. РБК-Україна (220454Z JUN 25, 220516Z JUN 25, 220539Z JUN 25, 220625Z JUN 25, 220754Z JUN 25, 220817Z JUN 25, 220823Z JUN 25) reports on Kramatorsk destruction, Odesa strikes, and the number of drones/missiles launched by RUF, and amplified RUF claims on IAEA and Fordow smoke. 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України (220457Z JUN 25) provides detailed report on defensive actions in Pokrovsk direction. STERNENKO (220519Z JUN 25, 220625Z JUN 25) reports on casualties in Sloviansk. ОТУ "Харків" (220501Z JUN 25, 220750Z JUN 25) provides RUF loss estimates and informational messages. Олег Синєгубов (220514Z JUN 25) reports on Kharkiv Oblast strikes. Оперативний ЗСУ (220525Z JUN 25, 220628Z JUN 25) reports combat engagements in Pokrovsk and drone neutralization. Сили оборони Півдня України (220544Z JUN 25, 220656Z JUN 25) reports on Orikhiv and strikes on enemy locations. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (220559Z JUN 25) commemorates fallen defenders. Оперативний ЗСУ (220600Z JUN 25) posts photo message about minute of silence. Air Force of Ukraine (220608Z JUN 25, 220612Z JUN 25, 220617Z JUN 25, 220623Z JUN 25, 220630Z JUN 25, 220633Z JUN 25, 220657Z JUN 25, 220659Z JUN 25, 220705Z JUN 25, 220706Z JUN 25, 220711Z JUN 25, 220715Z JUN 25, 220718Z JUN 25, 220749Z JUN 25, 220800Z JUN 25, 220811Z JUN 25, 220816Z JUN 25, 220826Z JUN 25) issues air alerts and reports on neutralized UAVs and missile launches. ASTRA (220600Z JUN 25) reports two killed in Donetsk. RBK-Ukraine publishes multiple statements from Sirskyi (220701Z, 220702Z, 220703Z, 220704Z, 220705Z, 220706Z, 220707Z, 220713Z, 220716Z, 220719Z, 220722Z, 220724Z, 220725Z JUN 25), providing comprehensive updates on the front, strategy, and enemy strength. Office of the Prosecutor General documents consequences of Odesa drone attacks (220709Z JUN 25) and civilian casualties in Sloviansk/Kramatorsk (220742Z JUN 25). Оперативний ЗСУ at 220802Z JUN 25 reports on Kellogg-Lukashenka talks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Highlighting Enemy Atrocities/Successes: Reporting on Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kremenchuk, and Odesa strikes highlights RUF aggression and civilian casualties, while reporting on UAF successes showcases capabilities. Шеф Hayabusa (220528Z JUN 25, 220625Z JUN 25) provides graphic evidence of RUF casualties and civilian casualties in Sloviansk. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (220558Z JUN 25, 220647Z JUN 25, 220825Z JUN 25) provides video/photo of deceased RUF personnel. Anatoliy Shtefan (220755Z JUN 25) also provides graphic evidence of RUF casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Proactive Diplomatic IO: Announced "month of diplomatic pressure" signals a shift to a more assertive diplomatic information posture. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports on Kellogg-Lukashenka talks on sanctions relief (220802Z JUN 25). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Immediate Debunking/Counter-IO: РБК-Україна and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS swiftly propagated the RUF claims of US strikes on Iran, highlighting the immediate need for debunking. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno's message indicates awareness of the RUF IO. STERNENKO (220440Z JUN 25, 220605Z JUN 25, 220637Z JUN 25, 220719Z JUN 25, 220802Z JUN 25) engages in counter-IO with a "tax on Ruso-cutters" meme, call to donate, and announcement of a stream, and reports on Iranian attack on Israel based on RUF fabrication, showing vulnerability, and promotes drone technology. RBK-Ukraine (220614Z JUN 25) reports on fundraising by NGU "Rubizh" brigade, which also serves to highlight the costs of defense. However, RBK-Ukraine (220600Z JUN 25, 220654Z JUN 25, 220817Z JUN 25, 220823Z JUN 25) also propagated RUF's "no radiation" claim from IAEA, NBC's (fabricated) report about Trump anticipating Iranian retaliation, and the IAEA emergency meeting, and Fordow smoke, indicating a critical vulnerability to RUF disinformation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (220811Z JUN 25) also amplifies NBC's (fabricated) report. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian: Persistent strategic strikes on critical infrastructure and urban centers will increase public anxiety. However, successful AD and deep strikes, coupled with visible military adaptation and effective defensive actions by units like the 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade and Southern Defense Forces, will bolster confidence. The rapid issuance and resolution of new air alerts will maintain vigilance. Civilian casualties, as reported in Sloviansk and Donetsk (220742Z JUN 25), will impact morale. Fundraising efforts for military units indicate ongoing public support and resilience. Sirskyi's public statements on strategy, successes, and future plans (220701Z, 220702Z, 220703Z, 220704Z, 220705Z, 220706Z, 220707Z, 220713Z, 220716Z, 220719Z, 220722Z, 220724Z, 220725Z JUN 25) are likely aimed at boosting public confidence. The General Staff meeting with media (220750Z JUN 25) also aims to maintain public trust. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Russian: RUF's domestic messaging around military "successes" and "normalization" aims to reinforce stability. The extreme nature of the "global crisis" fabrication carries the risk of discrediting Russian state media, though internal suppression limits exposure. The Hitler quote, June 22, 1941, allusion, and new WWII revisionism is a deeply concerning signal internally, likely preparing the population for a major, decisive action. TASS (220333Z JUN 25, 220539Z JUN 25) promoting "Day of Memory and Sorrow" events further cements this historical framing for the domestic audience. Филолог в засаде (220415Z JUN 25) also reinforces this. Басурин о главном (220445Z JUN 25, 220632Z JUN 25) contributes to this historical framing. Gas explosion in Sverdlovsk Oblast will be a local concern. Reports of metal scavenging by Север.Реалии (220644Z JUN 25) might indicate underlying economic issues or opportunistic behavior that could affect public sentiment. Colonelcassad's fundraising efforts (220704Z JUN 25) also show a reliance on public support. The commemorative video by Два майора at 220733Z JUN 25 reinforces the "Day of Memory and Sorrow" theme for domestic consumption. WarGonzo at 220823Z JUN 25 posts photos about the "Motherland-Mother" monument, a clear domestic morale event. Recruitment videos (Два майора 220804Z JUN 25) also play into domestic morale by showing "heroic" soldiers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Global Diversion Potential: The extreme escalation of RUF's fabricated "global crisis" narratives, particularly the false claim of an Iranian MRBM strike on Ukraine, fabricated Israeli/Iranian strikes, and narratives of US war preparations and false US military strikes on Iran attributed to "Trump," including fabricated "confirmations" from "Iranian officials," false Netanyahu statements, and false UN statements, and the new use of GBU-57 MOP video, and WarGonzo's claim of "Tehran officially accused the US," and TASS's use of "NASA" data and "Iranian/Saudi official" statements, and the latest claims of "Iranian missiles attack Tel Aviv and Haifa," and claims of tactical nuclear weapons use, IAEA emergency meetings, Omani condemnation, and "Yemen's entry into the war" poses an EXTREME risk of diverting international attention and resources from Ukraine. The goal is to create sufficient chaos and uncertainty to justify a larger RUF escalation in Ukraine under this pretext, potentially even by staging a false-flag operation. The immediacy of the RUF reporting on "US strikes" and Trump's alleged statement indicates a rapid-response, high-impact IO play. This is strongly supported by Dempster-Shafer analysis on "Information Warfare: Disinformation Campaign by Russia." The June 22, 1941, historical parallel and WWII revisionism, now amplified by TASS commemorating "Day of Memory and Sorrow" (220333Z JUN 25, 220539Z JUN 25) and Филолог в засаде (220415Z JUN 25) and Военкор Котенок (220435Z JUN 25) and Старше Эдды (220814Z JUN 25), is a direct warning signal for a major military offensive coinciding with this date, designed to be seen by external observers. The reporting of NBC claims by RBK-Ukraine (220654Z JUN 25, 220811Z JUN 25) further indicates successful penetration of this narrative. New claims of British support (Операция Z 220800Z JUN 25), Maxar imagery, and antisemitic tropes by Alex Parker Returns (220819Z JUN 25) further exacerbate the situation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Ukrainian Diplomatic Offensive: Ukraine's declared "month of diplomatic pressure" will be critical to consolidate and expand international support and isolate Russia, directly countering RUF's ongoing diversionary tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Belarus Talks: Unconfirmed reports of US Kellogg-Lukashenka talks indicate potential diplomatic avenues or attempts to manage regional dynamics. Operatyvnyi ZSU reporting on sanctions relief discussions (220802Z JUN 25) adds a new dimension. (LOW CONFIDENCE on content, HIGH CONFIDENCE on report of talks).

4.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• NONE.

---

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Sustained Strategic Strikes, Escalated Ground Offensives, and False-Flag Pretexts: RUF will continue high-intensity, multi-wave air and missile strikes targeting critical energy and industrial infrastructure and urban centers (e.g., Odesa, Kremenchuk, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Druzhkivka). Expect continued tactical aviation activity with confirmed Ka-52M strikes, launches of guided aerial bombs (Sumy, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia), and drone attacks (including reconnaissance UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Kharkiv). Ground operations will see sustained, high-intensity assaults on the Pokrovsk/Mirnohrad and Siversk/Redkodub axes and escalated ground probes and limited advances on the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Orikhiv axes, supported by heavy aviation, drones, and thermobaric weapons (TOS-1A). Direct assaults against UAF equipment and UAV control points can be expected (Narodnaya Militsiya DNR 220803Z JUN 25). In the information domain, RUF will continue to intensify its "global crisis" fabrication, now including more complex and frequent fabricated kinetic events (e.g., active Iran-Israel conflict, false US attacks on Iran, attributed to "Trump," with fabricated confirmations and news headlines, including false quotes from officials, and new fabricated statements from Trump and Netanyahu, "Iranian official confirmations," the use of GBU-57 MOP video, and the new attempt to use "NASA" data and "Iranian/Saudi official" statements for "corroboration" and claims of "Iranian missile attacks on Israel," and claims of tactical nuclear weapons use, IAEA emergency meetings, Omani condemnation, and "Yemen's entry into the war"). This is likely to culminate in a major, fabricated false-flag event or a direct, overt kinetic escalation inside Ukraine attributed to a third party (e.g., "Iranian retaliation" or "US-sponsored sabotage") to provide a pretext for RUF's own large-scale offensive. The consistent and synchronized historical allusion by multiple RUF milbloggers to June 22, 1941, and its amplification by state-affiliated channels suggests a very high probability of RUF launching a significant, multi-axis offensive operation beginning around this date. Expect continued recruitment efforts by RUF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Decisive Strategic Offensive with Global Diversion & False-Flag Operations: RUF launches a major, synchronized, multi-pronged ground offensive across the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Siversk (Donetsk) axes, aiming for decisive operational breakthroughs and the capture of key logistical hubs. This offensive would be preceded by an overwhelming, multi-vector missile and drone attack, including further ballistic missile and guided aerial bomb strikes. Concurrently, RUF executes a large-scale, high-impact false-flag operation inside Ukraine (e.g., a "dirty bomb" detonation, a chemical attack, or a major infrastructure collapse), immediately attributing it to its fabricated "international conflict." This would aim to trigger a severe global crisis, forcing international attention and resources away from Ukraine, and potentially disrupting aid flows at a critical juncture of RUF ground operations, while simultaneously justifying RUF's aggressive actions as "counter-terrorism" or "stabilization." The strong and synchronized historical analogy to June 22, 1941, and WWII revisionism reinforces the likelihood of a major offensive coinciding with the extreme IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 0-6 hours, starting from 220829Z JUN 25):
  • RUF: Expect immediate and sustained ground pressure on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes, potentially intensifying to a full-scale offensive given the June 22, 1941, historical allusions. Continued localized kinetic strikes (KAB, artillery, TOS-1A) on frontline areas, and confirmed Ka-52M helicopter strikes and guided aerial bomb launches on Sumy, Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia. High probability of continued air/missile/UAV threats to other oblasts (e.g., Odesa confirmed, new alerts for Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, and Kyiv, reconnaissance UAV in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Kharkiv). RUF IO will continue to react to Ukrainian diplomatic announcements and attempt to propagate justifications for recent strikes, while further pushing the fabricated global crisis, including new "evidence" of the "Iran-Israel/US war" and claims of UAF equipment losses. The immediate reporting of US attacks on Iran attributed to "Trump," "Iranian official confirmations," and the use of GBU-57 MOP video, and claims of "Iranian missile attacks on Israel," and claims of tactical nuclear weapons use, IAEA emergency meetings, Omani condemnation, and "Yemen's entry into the war" is designed to intensify this narrative. Expect new fabricated quotes from US and Israeli officials. Expect further WWII revisionist narratives from TASS, including new antisemitic tropes. Expect further attempts by TASS to use "credible" sources (e.g., NASA, Iranian Nuclear Safety Center, IAEA, MAXAR) or official statements (Iranian FM, Saudi nuclear regulator, Omani Foreign Ministry, British PM, White House) to "corroborate" fabricated events.
  • UAF Decision Point: Immediately elevate readiness levels for a large-scale ground offensive on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes. Maintain high alert for air and artillery threats, specifically ballistic missiles and guided aerial bombs. Initiate rapid BDA on Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Druzhkivka, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, and Tokmak strikes. Prioritize immediate verification of RUF claims on all axes. Prepare robust counter-IO responses for RUF's increasingly absurd global crisis fabrications and their use of war crime incitement, including their claims of drone captures and false Israeli/Iranian/US strikes. Rapidly and aggressively debunk any fabricated "Trump" statements regarding US attacks on Iran, leveraging all available diplomatic and media channels, and expose the attempts to use "NASA" or other official entities to lend credibility to the fabrications, particularly the propagation of "no radiation" by seemingly neutral sources. Expose the fabricated MAXAR imagery of uranium evacuation. Dispel the Hitler historical analogy and WWII revisionism as Russian imperialist ambition and a clear signal of an imminent, large-scale offensive. Continue to provide transparent updates on RUF losses and UAF defensive successes.
• Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
  • RUF: High probability of sustained, high-intensity ground assaults in Donetsk (Pokrovsk/Mirnohrad, Siversk/Redkodub) and a significant, multi-axis ground offensive on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes, supported by heavy aviation, drones, and thermobaric weapons. Expect RUF to attempt to launch a more coherent and impactful phase of its global crisis fabrication, potentially involving a new, larger false-flag event to serve as a pretext for the multi-axis offensive.
  • UAF Decision Point: Continue to reinforce defensive positions on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk/Mirnohrad, Siversk/Redkodub) and actively prepare for and counter the predicted major ground offensive on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes, deploying strategic reserves as necessary and leveraging newly constructed fortifications. Sustain deep strike operations against RUF logistics. Implement a comprehensive IO strategy for the "month of diplomatic pressure," ensuring consistent messaging globally and swiftly debunking RUF counter-narratives, emphasizing the dangerous nature of their global crisis fabrications, incitement to war crimes, and deliberate attempts to create a global conflict.

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6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Surge all-source ISR to the Sumy and Kharkiv axes to determine the scale, disposition, and intent of Russian ground forces. Provide immediate warning of any indicators of a shift from shaping operations to a major offensive. This remains the #1 intelligence priority. The historical allusion to June 22, 1941, and WWII revisionism must be taken seriously as a potential signal for a major offensive coinciding with this date.
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch a dedicated, 24/7, multi-agency task force for real-time forensic analysis and debunking of Russia's extreme IO fabrications, specifically the false Iranian MRBM strike claim, fabricated "visual evidence" of Israeli/Iranian strikes, the NEW fabricated US attacks on Iran attributed to "Trump" with false confirmations and headlines, and the use of the June 22, 1941, historical analogy and WWII revisionism, as well as incitement to war crimes. Prioritize exposing RUF's attempts to use "NASA" data and "Iranian/Saudi official" statements and the IAEA to lend credibility to their fabrications, and the ongoing fabrication of "Iranian missile attacks on Israel," and the claims of tactical nuclear weapons use, IAEA emergency meetings, Omani condemnation, and "Yemen's entry into the war," and antisemitic narratives. Rapidly expose the fabricated MAXAR imagery of uranium evacuation. Rapidly disseminate evidence-based counter-narratives to international partners and media.
3. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Prioritize all-source intelligence collection on the Siversk, Mirnohrad, Dolhenke, Redkodub, Muravka, Dylyivka, and Orikhiv axes (Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia Oblast) to verify RUF's claimed "breakthrough" and capture, and assess the scale and intent of any offensive.
4. URGENT: Conduct immediate and comprehensive BDA of the Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Druzhkivka, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, and Tokmak strikes to identify targeting patterns and inform AD and civil defense posture.
5. ONGOING: Actively monitor and counter RUF claims of UAF equipment captures, providing accurate and verified information to counter their morale-boosting narratives.
6. URGENT: Investigate the veracity and implications of the reported Kellogg-Lukashenka talks in Belarus, especially concerning sanctions relief.

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Re-posture and reinforce AD assets, particularly anti-ballistic/hypersonic missile and counter-KAB systems, to the Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, Poltava, Kyiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts in anticipation of further strikes supporting a potential ground offensive and targeting strategic infrastructure. Special attention to Chernihiv given the new ballistic missile threat. Actively monitor for reconnaissance UAVs in eastern Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Kharkiv. Prioritize fielding of light aircraft for Shahed interception.
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Maintain maximum AD alert posture in all major cities, prioritizing protection of critical infrastructure (energy, logistics) and civilian population centers against mass combined-arms attacks, specifically Iskander-M and guided aerial bombs.
3. URGENT: Disseminate updated force protection guidance for civilians and first responders addressing the threat of cluster-type munitions with anti-personnel fragmentation.

6.3. Ground Forces:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain a flexible strategic reserve prepared for rapid deployment to the Sumy and Kharkiv axes to counter a potential large-scale RUF ground assault. Leverage newly constructed fortifications and prioritize reinforcement of these sectors. Prepare for and conduct counter-offensives, as indicated by Sirskyi's statements.
2. URGENT: Reinforce defensive positions around Pokrovsk, Mirnohrad, Siversk, Redkodub, Muravka, Dylyivka, and Orikhiv to counter continued high-intensity RUF assaults, including the confirmed use of TOS-1A systems and drone operations, and new Ka-52M helicopter strikes and guided aerial bombs.
3. URGENT: Disperse and protect UAF drone and communications assets (Starlink) from RUF artillery and drone targeting. Accelerate fielding of counter-drone EW systems to frontline units, specifically to counter fiber-optic drones. Promote innovations in drone survivability.
4. ONGOING: Continue to execute precision deep strikes against high-value RUF logistical targets (e.g., fuel depots, ammunition dumps, rail lines) to degrade their sustainment capabilities, especially in Southern direction.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch an unprecedented, globally coordinated IO and diplomatic campaign to expose Russia's dangerous and irresponsible fabrications, specifically the false claim of an Iranian MRBM strike on Ukraine, fabricated Israeli/Iranian strikes, and the broader narrative of a global conflict with US involvement, including the explicit fabrication of US military strikes on Iran attributed to "Trump," and the false confirmations/headlines/quotes from officials, and the latest attempt by RUF to partially "debunk" elements of this fabrication, while simultaneously introducing new fabricated statements and "Iranian official confirmations," and the new use of GBU-57 MOP video, and the attempts to use "NASA" and "Iranian/Saudi official" statements and the IAEA to lend credibility, and the ongoing fabrication of "Iranian missile attacks on Israel," and the claims of tactical nuclear weapons use, IAEA emergency meetings, Omani condemnation, and "Yemen's entry into the war," and antisemitic narratives. Explicitly counter fabricated MAXAR imagery and White House Situation Room photos. Frame this as a direct threat to global security and an attempt to create a pretext for wider conflict. Highlight the use of fictional content, WWII revisionism, and incitement to war crimes.
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Aggressively publicize evidence of RUF's use of anti-personnel munitions in the Kremenchuk strike, framing it as a deliberate war crime and act of terror against civilians. Provide all evidence to international legal bodies (ICC, ICJ).
3. URGENT: Publicly reject Russia's disingenuous "peace offer" as a classic deception tactic designed to accompany military escalation, and pre-emptively dismiss it. Reiterate Ukraine's commitment to a just peace based on the full restoration of its territorial integrity.
4. URGENT: Actively counter RUF's use of historical analogies like the June 22, 1941, Hitler quote and the WWII "FSB documents" by framing it as a clear signal of Russian imperialist aggression and an intent for a large-scale offensive, drawing parallels to the historical aggressor. This must be highlighted as a direct and immediate threat.
5. ONGOING: Continue to use public statements by high-ranking officials (e.g., Sirskyi) to provide transparent, accurate updates on the military situation, UAF successes, and strategic outlook, to bolster domestic and international confidence.