Sitrep 2025-06-22 06:00:28

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 220600Z JUN 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district): RUF continues to employ aviation weapons. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Donetsk Oblast (Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Dylyivka): RUF kinetic strikes on residential buildings confirmed, causing casualties including a 17-year-old killed in Sloviansk. RUF milblogger channels claim destruction of UAF UAV launch positions. The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade reports ongoing defensive actions in the Pokrovsk direction, successfully repelling 35 enemy attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Kharkiv Oblast (Kutkivka, Topoli): RUF maintains claims of "regularly grinding down" UAF units reinforced towards Kutkivka and Topoli. Ballistic missile threats persist, with three settlements struck in the past day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim; LOW CONFIDENCE on actual impact to UAF forces; HIGH CONFIDENCE on ballistic missile threat)
Poltava Oblast (Kremenchuk): Confirmed RUF combined-arms strike on strategic infrastructure, with "beautiful video" of the strike promoted by RUF milbloggers. Ballistic missile threat persists. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Missile danger previously declared was ALL-CLEAR (220232Z JUN 25). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 425 RUF strikes on 12 settlements over the past day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on declaration and all-clear; HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF kinetic activity)
Odesa Oblast (Zatoka, Karolino-Bugaz, Ovidioppol, Belgorod-Dnestrovsky): Previous threat of enemy attack UAVs confirmed with tracking, subsequently called off. However, new video messages from RBK-Ukraine (220539Z JUN 25) indicate RUF strikes on Odesa Oblast this night, showing fire and emergency response. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Northern-Eastern Direction: RUF tactical aviation activity reported with confirmed Ka-52M helicopter strikes against UAF temporary deployment points. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Black Sea: Six (6) UAVs observed in the sea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Kursk Oblast (Border Regions): RUF (via TASS) continues to release video messages claiming military drones dropped food for residents in "occupied by AFU settlements," implying RUF ground presence and humanitarian pretext. (LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity of claim; HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF propaganda narrative)
Bryansk Oblast (RUF Territory): RUF air defense detected and destroyed nine (9) enemy UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Smolensk Oblast (RUF Territory): Governor reports RUF air defense shot down two UAVs and suppressed one via EW. Russian MoD reports 11 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Crimea, Bryansk, and Smolensk Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Belarus (Minsk): Unverified reports indicate US Kellogg-Lukashenka talks lasted over six hours. (LOW CONFIDENCE on content, HIGH CONFIDENCE on report of talks)
Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Head of Kryvyi Rih City Military Administration reports the situation is controlled as of 220447Z JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UAF General Staff Updates: Photo messages (220501Z JUN 25, 220502Z JUN 25, 220558Z JUN 25) regarding operational information as of 08:00 22.06.2025. These are broad status updates and not specific tactical details. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Pokrovsk Direction: Оперативний ЗСУ (220525Z JUN 25) reports 53/171 combat engagements in the Pokrovsk direction over the past day, indicating continued intense fighting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
RUF Casualties: ОТУ "Харків" (220501Z JUN 25) provides photo messages detailing estimated enemy combat losses. Шеф Hayabusa (220528Z JUN 25) provides graphic photo message of deceased RUF personnel. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (220558Z JUN 25) provides video of deceased RUF personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
RUF Territory (Serov, Sverdlovsk Oblast): ASTRA (220548Z JUN 25) and TASS (220553Z JUN 25) report a gas explosion in a five-story residential building, with preliminary reports of casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

No significant changes to previous assessment. Conditions remain conducive to UAV and air operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

Ukrainian Forces (UAF):
- Air Defense (AD): Continues to operate effectively, as evidenced by timely tracking and stand-down of UAV threats, recent all-clear for Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and immediate ballistic missile threat warnings. AD response in Odesa Oblast confirmed by RBK-Ukraine (220539Z JUN 25). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Ground Forces: Engaged in robust defensive operations across critical axes, particularly in Donetsk and eastern Kharkiv. The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade reports effective defensive actions against RUF assaults in the Pokrovsk direction, including significant personnel and drone losses for RUF. UAF also maintains counter-UAV capabilities and tactical initiative. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (220356Z JUN 25, 220558Z JUN 25) has released updated photo messages regarding estimated RUF losses, confirmed by Operative ZSU (220403Z JUN 25) reporting 1100 RUF personnel liquidated in the past day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Logistics & Sustainment: No new information. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Russian Forces (RUF):
- Kinetic Operations: Continued high-intensity ballistic missile, Kinzhal, cruise missile, and Shahed strikes across Ukraine. Confirmed residential building strikes in Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. Confirmed engagement of UAF UAV positions. New ballistic missile threats to Kharkiv and Poltava Oblasts. New aviation weapon threat for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Six (6) UAVs observed in the Black Sea. RUF milbloggers actively promoting "beautiful video" of the Kremenchuk strike and drone surveillance/strikes against military targets (Воин DV). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 425 RUF strikes on 12 settlements over the past day. RBK-Ukraine (220539Z JUN 25) confirms RUF strikes on Odesa Oblast this night, with fire and emergency response. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Ground Operations: Sustained pressure on the Pokrovsk axis (Mirnohrad) and continued claims of "active combat" in Sumy Oblast. New claims of "grinding down" UAF reinforcements in Kharkiv indicate persistent localized pressure. RUF claims ground presence in Kursk border regions via humanitarian aid drops. Сили оборони Півдня України (220544Z JUN 25) reports RUF continues assault actions in the Orikhiv direction, actively using aviation against UAF positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on claims; LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on actual gains or impact)
- Logistics & Sustainment: No new information. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on previous assessment).
- Information Operations (IO): Intensified "Iran-Israel crisis" fabrication, now claiming "US attacked Iran" (Басурин о главном 220501Z JUN 25, Операция Z 220524Z JUN 25, ASTRA 220515Z JUN 25). RUF channels now falsely claim "Iran confirmed US attacked Iran." RUF is fabricating statements from the IRGC and calling for immediate evacuation of US bases in the region. TASS pushing fabricated statements from Netanyahu thanking Trump for the "strike" and falsely claiming the UN Secretary-General called the strikes a "dangerous escalation." Colonelcassad (220333Z JUN 25) now claims US military sources report the Isfahan underground nuclear complex was deeper and more powerful than expected. TASS (220332Z JUN 25) explicitly linking this fabricated "Trump" action to potential impeachment proceedings. WarGonzo (220349Z JUN 25) states "Tehran officially accused the United States of attacking nuclear facilities." Два майора (220340Z JUN 25) and Дневник Десантника (220342Z JUN 25) are pushing videos of the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bomb. STERNENKO (220410Z JUN 25) amplifies the fabricated "Trump" statements. TASS (220411Z JUN 25) explicitly claims "NASA recorded a powerful heat emission in the area of the Iranian nuclear facility near Fordow shortly before the US announced the airstrike. The New York Times reports this." TASS (220418Z JUN 25) publishes "The US violated international law and the nuclear non-proliferation regime, said the Iranian Foreign Minister." Colonelcassad (220420Z JUN 25) speculates that US-RF talks were intended to soften RF's position ahead of an attack on Iran. Оперативний ЗСУ (220429Z JUN 25) amplifies a false report that "No radiation detected in Persian Gulf countries after US strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites – Saudi nuclear energy regulator." Colonelcassad (220439Z JUN 25) claims "Israel states Iran launched missiles." Colonelcassad (220448Z JUN 25) posts photo message claiming "Iranian missiles attack Tel Aviv and Haifa. Explosions and air defense activity reported." Colonelcassad (220454Z JUN 25, 220504Z JUN 25, 220516Z JUN 25) provides video of alleged Iranian missile attack/aftermath in Haifa and Tel Aviv. ASTRA (220515Z JUN 25) provides video of a fabricated Donald Trump address regarding strikes on Iran. TASS (220524Z JUN 25) claims "No radiation detected outside nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, according to Iran's Nuclear Safety Center."
  - NEW IO on Iran/Israel/US: TASS (220531Z JUN 25) claims that Milorad Dodik stated the Israel-Iran conflict could escalate to tactical nuclear weapons. Fighterbomber (220531Z JUN 25) claims "USA has 'finally' gotten involved and entered the war between Israel and Iran." ASTRA (220538Z JUN 25) posts photos and videos claiming "Iran attacked Israel, there is destruction and casualties." Colonelcassad (220539Z JUN 25) posts videos of "more consequences" (destruction in Tel Aviv/Haifa). Colonelcassad (220545Z JUN 25) posts Iranian TV report from Fordow claiming "no serious external damage" but smoke plume "beyond the facility," trying to manage the narrative. WarGonzo (220549Z JUN 25) posts videos claiming IAEA reported no radiation increase after US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, further attempting to lend false credibility to the fabricated US strike. Операция Z (220549Z JUN 25) amplifies "Voenkor Russkoy Vesny" claims of "Iran launched missile strike on Israel — series of powerful explosions in Haifa and Tel Aviv," with associated videos.
  - June 22, 1941, Allusion: RUF milbloggers are making direct historical allusions to June 22, 1941 (German invasion of the Soviet Union). TASS (220333Z JUN 25, 220539Z JUN 25) video messages confirm state-level promotion of "Day of Memory and Sorrow" events across Russia, with 1,418 candles lit at the Main Cathedral of the Russian Armed Forces. WarGonzo (220539Z JUN 25) uses "Day of Memory and Sorrow" in photo caption. Филолог в засаде (220415Z JUN 25) explicitly links June 22, 1941 to "lessons." Военкор Котенок (220435Z JUN 25) directly compares Trump to Hitler. Басурин о главном (220445Z JUN 25) posts multiple video messages on the theme of "Day of Memory and Sorrow." ТАСС (220509Z JUN 25) is promoting "declassified FSB documents" regarding "Nazi atrocities in Kherson Oblast," confirming ongoing historical revisionism to demonize Ukraine. ТАСС (220519Z JUN 25) interviews Alexander Khinshtein on how people in Kursk rescued pets from UAF drones, pushing a victim narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

CRITICAL: Verify RUF claims of "regularly grinding down" UAF units near Kutkivka and Topoli (Kharkiv Oblast). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: GEOINT, IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
CRITICAL: Assess the impact and effectiveness of RUF's alleged destruction of a UAF UAV launch position in Dylyivka. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT, HUMINT).
CRITICAL: Continue to monitor for any credible evidence or significant international uptake of Russia's increasingly absurd and dangerous fabrications regarding a kinetic Iran-Israel/US conflict, including the latest attempts by Colonelcassad to "debunk" the fabricated "US strikes" by citing lack of physical evidence, while simultaneously propagating new fabricated quotes from US and Israeli officials, and new "confirmations" from "Iranian officials" (TASS, 220319Z JUN 25), and new claims of "Iranian missile attacks on Israel." (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT, ALL-SOURCE).
CRITICAL: Verify RUF claims of "liberating" Dolhenke and subsequently targeting Redkodub. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: GEOINT, IMINT, HUMINT).
CRITICAL: Verify RUF claims of "breaking through" UAF defenses towards Siversk (Donetsk Oblast) and Mirnohrad. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: GEOINT, IMINT, HUMINT).
CRITICAL: Verify RUF ground combat claims and force disposition on the Sumy axis. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: GEOINT, IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
HIGH: Confirm the specifics and implications of the reported Kellogg-Lukashenka talks in Belarus. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT, SIGINT).
HIGH: Assess the significance and intent of RUF claims of humanitarian aid drops in Kursk Oblast border regions. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
HIGH: Investigate the specific historical "declassified FSB documents" released by TASS regarding Kherson Oblast, to assess their historical accuracy and the current narrative intent. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

Ground Capabilities: RUF maintains capability for high-intensity, multi-directional ground assaults, particularly on the Donetsk axis and increasingly on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes. Forces are supported by intense KAB, UAV, and TOS-1A thermobaric strikes, and now confirmed tactical aviation support with Ka-52M helicopters. Сили оборони Півдня України (220544Z JUN 25) confirms active use of aviation in the Orikhiv direction. Rybar's "Historical Moment" photos combined with TASS "Day of Memory and Sorrow" videos and Филолог в засаде's commentary indicate preparations for ground action under a historical narrative. Воин DV's video confirms active drone surveillance and strikes against military targets. The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade reports repelling numerous RUF ground attacks in the Pokrovsk direction, demonstrating RUF's continued offensive intent despite heavy losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Air/Missile Capabilities: RUF possesses and effectively employs a diverse range of missile and UAV assets for large-scale, multi-wave attacks. New ballistic missile threats to Kharkiv and Poltava Oblasts. New aviation weapon threat for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian MoD confirms success in downing 11 Ukrainian UAVs, suggesting continued robust air defense capabilities for RUF territory. AV БогомаZ reports 9 UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast, confirming RUF's defensive air capabilities. RBK-Ukraine (220539Z JUN 25) confirms RUF strikes on Odesa Oblast this night. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Information Warfare Capabilities: RUF's IO apparatus is highly capable of sophisticated, multi-faceted disinformation campaigns, now escalated to direct fabrication of kinetic events on Ukrainian soil and explicitly promoting a global conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the US, including direct US kinetic involvement attributed to "Trump" (ASTRA 220515Z JUN 25, Операция Z 220524Z JUN 25, Fighterbomber 220531Z JUN 25), with fabricated "confirmations" from Iranian officials and fake news headlines. The use of GBU-57 MOP video (Два майора, 220340Z JUN 25) is a new visual amplification of the fabricated "US strike." The explicit use of the June 22, 1941, historical analogy by multiple milbloggers and state-affiliated channels (TASS 220539Z JUN 25, WarGonzo 220539Z JUN 25) is a significant, new IO tactic designed to prepare the domestic audience for a major offensive. The addition of TASS (220411Z JUN 25) using alleged "NASA" reports and (220524Z JUN 25) "Iranian Nuclear Safety Center" reports to corroborate fabricated strikes is a significant escalation in attempts to lend credibility. TASS (220418Z JUN 25) quoting "Iranian Foreign Minister" further indicates a coordinated effort to fabricate official responses. Colonelcassad's latest claims of "Iranian missiles attack Tel Aviv and Haifa" (220448Z JUN 25, 220504Z JUN 25, 220516Z JUN 25) with accompanying video illustrate the ongoing real-time fabrication, further amplified by ASTRA (220538Z JUN 25) and Операция Z (220549Z JUN 25). WarGonzo (220549Z JUN 25) attempting to "debunk" radiation concerns using "IAEA" is another subtle IO tactic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Intentions: RUF intends to:
- Degrade Ukrainian Energy/Industrial Capacity: Continue large-scale strikes on strategic energy and industrial infrastructure (Kremenchuk) and disrupt logistical nodes. Confirmed by 425 strikes in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and new strikes in Odesa Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Terrorize Civilian Population: Maximize civilian casualties through the use of anti-personnel munitions and indiscriminate shelling (Kremenchuk, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Odesa). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Achieve Operational Breakthrough: Maintain severe pressure on the Donetsk axis and initiate a major ground offensive on the Sumy axis, while also pinning down UAF forces in Kharkiv and Orikhiv. The June 22, 1941, historical allusion, now amplified by state media commemorations, strongly suggests RUF intends to launch a significant, potentially multi-axis, offensive starting around this date. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Divert Global Attention: Utilize increasingly absurd and dangerous fabrications (false "Iran-Israel/US war," including false US kinetic involvement attributed to "Trump," with fabricated "confirmations" and "official statements," and now claims of tactical nuclear weapons use) to create global chaos, justify further escalation, and draw international resources away from Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Demoralize UAF and Incite War Crimes: Promote narratives that normalize violence against civilians and combatants (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС 220558Z JUN 25 video). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Provide Diplomatic Cover: Use deceptive "peace proposals" to mask kinetic and informational escalations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

RUF: Continued strategic air/missile targeting (Kremenchuk, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Odesa). Increased ground combat claims and potential escalation on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes, and confirmed sustained assaults in Orikhiv. Confirmed use of TOS-1A systems and Ka-52M helicopter strikes. Critical escalation in IO, with direct fabrication of kinetic events inside Ukraine and the global crisis narrative (Iran-Israel/US war, including false Israeli strikes on Iran, and now anticipated Iranian drone/missile strikes on Israel, and false US strikes on Iran attributed to "Trump," now with fabricated "confirmations" from Iranian and Israeli officials and UN statements, and claims of tactical nuclear weapons use). The deliberate effort to attribute fake US kinetic actions to "Trump" (ASTRA 220515Z JUN 25, Операция Z 220524Z JUN 25, Fighterbomber 220531Z JUN 25) is a new, dangerous psychological warfare tactic. The explicit use of the June 22, 1941, historical analogy by multiple RUF milbloggers and state-level promotion of "Day of Memory and Sorrow" events is a significant, new IO tactic. The addition of TASS (220411Z JUN 25) using alleged NASA data, and (220524Z JUN 25) "Iranian Nuclear Safety Center" reports to "corroborate" fabricated strikes, and direct quotes from "Iranian Foreign Minister" further indicate a sophisticated and coordinated disinformation campaign. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF: Successful AD against high-volume attacks and rapid tracking/stand-down of UAV threats, along with timely ballistic missile threat warnings. Confirmed AD activity in Odesa. Continued deep strike capabilities against RUF logistics, evidenced by successful UAV attacks in Smolensk and Bryansk Oblasts. Adaptation to drone warfare. Proactive diplomatic IO. Effective defensive operations in Pokrovsk direction, inflicting losses on RUF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

RUF: No new information. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on previous assessment).
UAF: No new information. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

RUF: C2 effectively coordinates large-scale, multi-domain kinetic operations. The extreme nature of the IO campaign suggests a highly centralized, calculated decision to abandon all pretense of truth for a global impact. This is further evidenced by the rapid and coordinated propagation of the fabricated US strike on Iran by multiple RUF-affiliated channels, the synchronized use of the June 22, 1941, analogy and WWII historical revisionism, and the attempt by some milbloggers (Colonelcassad) to manage the narrative without fully retracting it. The addition of "NASA" and "Iranian/Saudi official" statements into the fabricated narrative further indicates a highly sophisticated and centralized IO control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on kinetic/ground C2; HIGH CONFIDENCE on calculated IO escalation).
UAF: UAF C2 demonstrates effective real-time AD response, ongoing ISR/targeting coordination for deep strikes, and adaptable force generation. The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade's detailed reports confirm effective tactical C2 in defensive operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.5. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

CRITICAL: Assess if the extreme escalation in RUF's IO (Iranian strike on Ukraine, Israeli strikes on Iran, US war with Iran, US strikes on Iran attributed to "Trump," fabricated confirmations, and the June 22, 1941, analogy, including the latest attempts to "debunk" elements of the fabricated narrative, while simultaneously introducing new fabricated official statements and "Iranian confirmations," and the new attempt to use "NASA" data to lend credibility, and claims of tactical nuclear weapons use) is a precursor to a major false-flag event or a direct military escalation, and identify potential targets or methods. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
HIGH: Determine the specific RUF units and tactics employed in the claimed advances towards Siversk, Mirnohrad, Dolhenke, Redkodub, and Muravka, and on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes, and the Orikhiv direction, to assess their impact on UAF defensive operations. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: GEOINT, IMINT, SIGINT).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

Defensive Posture: UAF AD maintains a high state of readiness. Ground forces are engaged in robust defensive operations on all critical axes, including responding to pressure in Kharkiv, Pokrovsk, and Orikhiv directions. The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade's successful defensive operations in Pokrovsk confirm robust UAF defensive posture. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (220356Z JUN 25, 220558Z JUN 25) has released updated estimated RUF losses. Operational UAF reports confirm 1100 RUF personnel liquidated in the past day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Offensive Capabilities: UAF demonstrates effective deep strike capabilities against RUF logistics (e.g., Smolensk and Bryansk UAV attacks) and adaptable offensive capabilities via drone units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Readiness: UAF components continue to demonstrate operational readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

Successes:
- AD Engagement: Successful AD engagement against a significant portion of incoming missiles/UAVs and rapid tracking and stand-down of UAV threats. Successful interception of 9 UAVs over Bryansk Oblast. Confirmed AD response in Odesa Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Deep Strike Capabilities: Successful UAF UAV attacks against RUF targets in Smolensk and Bryansk Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Ground Tactics: Successful raid by the 63rd Mechanized Brigade, taking RUF POWs. The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade successfully repelled 35 RUF attacks in Pokrovsk direction, inflicting significant losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Force Adaptation: Operationalization of the Grouping of Forces of Unmanned Systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Diplomatic Initiative: Announcement of a "month of diplomatic pressure" on Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- RUF Attrition: Operational UAF reports confirm 1100 RUF personnel liquidated in the past day, with graphic evidence of casualties provided by BUТUSOV PLUS (220558Z JUN 25). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Setbacks:
- Strategic Infrastructure Damage: Successful RUF strike on Kremenchuk energy infrastructure poses a significant long-term risk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Civilian Casualties/Risk: Persistent strikes on Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, and Kremenchuk continue to cause civilian casualties and terrorize populations. 425 strikes on 12 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast causing civilian damage. РБК-Україна confirms destruction in Kramatorsk and new strikes in Odesa Oblast. STERNENKO (220519Z JUN 25) confirms a 17-year-old killed in Sloviansk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Escalated Ground Pressure: RUF claims of breakthrough towards Mirnohrad, the capture of Dolhenke, and active combat in Sumy, along with claims of "grinding down" UAF reinforcements in Kharkiv and sustained assaults in Orikhiv, represent increased pressure on critical axes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on claims).
- Hybrid Warfare Impact: The extreme escalation of RUF's IO, particularly the false Iranian strike claim, fabricated Israeli strikes, "US war with Iran" narratives, and now false claims of US military strikes on Iran attributed to "Trump," combined with fabricated confirmations, fake news headlines, fabricated quotes from Trump and Netanyahu, "Iranian official confirmations" and the June 22, 1941, analogy, and WWII revisionism (Kherson FSB documents), and the new use of GBU-57 MOP video, and TASS's use of "NASA" and "Iranian/Saudi official" statements, and the latest claims of "Iranian missiles attack Tel Aviv and Haifa," and claims of tactical nuclear weapons use, poses an EXTREME risk of global diversion and legitimizing false pretexts for RUF escalation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Immediate Air Threats: While Odesa UAV threat was called off and Zaporizhzhia declared all-clear, confirmed activity and new ballistic missile and aviation threats indicate sustained RUF air/missile activity. New confirmed strikes in Odesa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

Air Defense Munitions & Platforms: Continued high-volume RUF air and missile strikes necessitate sustained, robust replenishment of AD munitions and platforms.
Long-Range Precision Strike Assets: Continued requirement for long-range precision strike assets to interdict RUF logistics and high-value targets.
Counter-Drone Capabilities: Urgent requirement for advanced EW and kinetic counter-drone systems to protect UAF drone teams and communications. 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade's success in neutralizing 135 enemy drones highlights the effectiveness and need for more counter-drone systems.
Ground Force Sustainment: Consistent supply of ammunition, medical supplies, and protective equipment for forces engaged in high-intensity defensive operations.

3.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

NONE.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

Russian:
- CRITICAL ESCALATION: "Iran-Israel/US War" Fabrication: RUF channels continue to explicitly fabricate kinetic events related to a global crisis. This now includes:
  - False claims of an Iranian MRBM strike on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (previous report).
  - New false claims of Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in Isfahan (previous report).
  - New explicit claims that Iranian air defense is repelling Israeli drone attacks, and "Iranian drones are heading to Israel." This is followed by a prediction of "Iranian missile strikes expected tonight or in the morning." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  - CRITICAL: Repeated and amplified explicit claims attributing to "Trump," of "successful US Air Force attacks on three nuclear facilities in Iran" (ASTRA 220515Z JUN 25, Операция Z 220524Z JUN 25, Басурин о главном 220501Z JUN 25, Fighterbomber 220531Z JUN 25), including specific claims of a US aircraft dropping a "full combat load of bombs" on the Fordow nuclear facility, and Fox News footage of B-2 bombers and map of strike locations. This is the most dangerous escalation yet, directly fabricating US kinetic involvement and directly linking it to a US political figure to lend false credibility. RUF sources claimed Trump would issue an address to the nation about this. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS even provides a fabricated video of "Trump's address to the nation" regarding "precision strikes." STERNENKO (220410Z JUN 25) amplifies these fabricated Trump statements. Оперативний ЗСУ (220453Z JUN 25) amplifies CNN report on "Trump Administration" informing Republicans before strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  - CRITICAL: Colonelcassad and TASS are now claiming "Iranian officials confirmed US attacked Iran at 0230 night hitting nuclear facilities." (TASS 220319Z JUN 25, WarGonzo 220349Z JUN 25, Colonelcassad 220545Z JUN 25). This is immediately followed by fabricated quotes from the IRGC and "Iranian TV" calls for immediate evacuation of US bases in the region. TASS (220432Z JUN 25) claims "Iran requested an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council." Colonelcassad (220439Z JUN 25) claims "Israel states Iran launched missiles." Colonelcassad (220448Z JUN 25, 220504Z JUN 25) posts photo/video messages claiming "Iranian missiles attack Tel Aviv and Haifa. Explosions and air defense activity reported." Colonelcassad (220516Z JUN 25) posts video of alleged aftermath of Iranian strikes in Tel Aviv and Haifa, amplified by ASTRA (220538Z JUN 25) and Операция Z (220549Z JUN 25). This directly attempts to provide false validation for their fabricated narrative and escalate tensions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  - CRITICAL: Colonelcassad posted a fabricated New York Times front page screenshot declaring "U.S. Enters War With Iran" with sub-headlines about President stating military struck key nuclear sites. This is a direct attempt to manufacture visual "evidence" for the global crisis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  - TASS and Colonelcassad are now falsely quoting Netanyahu thanking Trump for the "strike" and falsely claiming the UN Secretary-General called the "US strikes on Iran" a "dangerous escalation." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (220346Z JUN 25) is amplifying a fabricated Netanyahu statement praising the "bold decision" to strike Iran. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  - TASS (220531Z JUN 25) introduces a new dangerous claim that Milorad Dodik stated the Israel-Iran conflict could escalate to tactical nuclear weapons use. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  - Colonelcassad (220333Z JUN 25) is now attempting to partially debunk the fabricated "US strikes" by claiming the underground nuclear complex in Isfahan was deeper and more powerful than expected. TASS (220332Z JUN 25) is pushing a narrative that Trump's decision to strike Iran without Congressional approval could lead to impeachment. Colonelcassad (220420Z JUN 25) speculates about US-RF talks softening RF's position prior to the "attack" on Iran. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  - Два майора (220340Z JUN 25) and Дневник Десантника (220342Z JUN 25) are explicitly promoting videos of the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bomb, implying its use. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  - Colonelcassad (220345Z JUN 25) attempts to show "Iranians are not impressed" with the "historic strike." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  - Два майора (220346Z JUN 25) is circulating a fabricated Fars report claiming ~50 large oil tankers are attempting to leave the Strait of Hormuz. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  - RUF attempting to pre-emptively counter the fabricated narrative by claiming "Iranians report in the media that enriched uranium was long ago and previously removed from nuclear centers." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  - TASS continuing to propagate the narrative that "the USA has not notified Israel of its decision to enter the war with Iran." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  - TASS (220411Z JUN 25) claims "NASA recorded a powerful heat emission in the area of the Iranian nuclear facility near Fordow." TASS (220418Z JUN 25) claims "The US violated international law and the nuclear non-proliferation regime, said the Iranian Foreign Minister." Оперативний ЗСУ (220429Z JUN 25) amplifies the false report that "No radiation detected in Persian Gulf countries after US strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites – Saudi nuclear energy regulator." TASS (220524Z JUN 25) claims "No radioactive contamination outside nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, according to Iran's Nuclear Safety Center." WarGonzo (220549Z JUN 25) reinforces this "no radiation" claim using "IAEA." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  - CRITICAL: RUF milbloggers are making direct historical allusions to the start of WWII, with Colonelcassad, Дневник Десантника (220430Z JUN 25), Басурин о главном (220445Z JUN 25), and Два майора quoting Hitler's statement on June 22, 1941. TASS (220333Z JUN 25, 220539Z JUN 25) released multiple video and photo messages from "Day of Memory and Sorrow" events across Russia, lighting 1,418 candles at the Main Cathedral of the Russian Armed Forces. WarGonzo (220539Z JUN 25) uses "Day of Memory and Sorrow" in photo caption. Rybar's multiple "Historical Moment" photo messages also likely contribute. Филолог в засаде (220415Z JUN 25) explicitly reinforces the June 22, 1941 historical analogy. Военкор Котенок (220435Z JUN 25) explicitly links Trump's fabricated strike to Hitler's 22 June action. ТАСС (220305Z JUN 25, 220509Z JUN 25) is actively spreading disinformation through "declassified FSB documents" claiming German-fascist occupiers shot about 4,000 people in Oleshek district of Kherson Oblast in 1941-1943. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  - TASS (220302Z JUN 25, 220401Z JUN 25, 220519Z JUN 25) released video messages claiming RUF military drones dropped food for residents in "occupied by AFU settlements" and discussed helping pensioners and rescuing pets from UAF drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Incitement to War Crimes: RUF-affiliated channels continue to openly call to "finish off the survivors" and promote fabricated stories of assassinating UAF soldiers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Morale Boosting/Justification: Milbloggers promote claims of battlefield successes and actively amplifying "beautiful video" of the Kremenchuk strike. Воин DV's video of drone strikes and surveillance serves this purpose. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Deceptive Diplomacy: Russia's public "peace proposal" for 22 JUN remains a clear deception tactic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Ukrainian:
- Transparency and Warning: Timely and accurate reporting of air raid alerts and all-clear statuses. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (220356Z JUN 25, 220358Z JUN 25, 220501Z JUN 25, 220502Z JUN 25, 220558Z JUN 25) provides operational updates on estimated RUF losses. Оперативний ЗСУ (220403Z JUN 25) confirms 1100 RUF personnel liquidated. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (220410Z JUN 25) reports on RUF strikes, and (220557Z JUN 25) observes a minute of silence. Oleksandr Vilkul (220447Z JUN 25) provides a controlled situation report for Kryvyi Rih. РБК-Україна (220454Z JUN 25, 220516Z JUN 25, 220539Z JUN 25) reports on Kramatorsk destruction and Odesa strikes. 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України (220457Z JUN 25) provides detailed report on defensive actions in Pokrovsk direction. STERNENKO (220519Z JUN 25) reports on casualties in Sloviansk. ОТУ "Харків" (220501Z JUN 25) provides RUF loss estimates. Олег Синєгубов (220514Z JUN 25) reports on Kharkiv Oblast strikes. Оперативний ЗСУ (220525Z JUN 25) reports combat engagements in Pokrovsk. Сили оборони Півдня України (220544Z JUN 25) reports on Orikhiv. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (220559Z JUN 25) commemorates fallen defenders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Highlighting Enemy Atrocities/Successes: Reporting on Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kremenchuk, and Odesa strikes highlights RUF aggression and civilian casualties, while reporting on UAF successes showcases capabilities. Шеф Hayabusa (220528Z JUN 25) provides graphic evidence of RUF casualties. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (220558Z JUN 25) provides video of deceased RUF personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Proactive Diplomatic IO: Announced "month of diplomatic pressure" signals a shift to a more assertive diplomatic information posture. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Immediate Debunking: РБК-Україна and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS swiftly propagated the RUF claims of US strikes on Iran, highlighting the immediate need for debunking. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno's message indicates awareness of the RUF IO. STERNENKO (220440Z JUN 25) engages in counter-IO with a "tax on Ruso-cutters" meme. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

Ukrainian: Persistent strategic strikes on critical infrastructure and urban centers will increase public anxiety. However, successful AD and deep strikes, coupled with visible military adaptation and effective defensive actions by units like the 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade, will bolster confidence. The rapid issuance and resolution of new air alerts will maintain vigilance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Russian: RUF's domestic messaging around military "successes" and "normalization" aims to reinforce stability. The extreme nature of the "global crisis" fabrication carries the risk of discrediting Russian state media, though internal suppression limits exposure. The Hitler quote, June 22, 1941, allusion, and new WWII revisionism is a deeply concerning signal internally, likely preparing the population for a major, decisive action. TASS (220333Z JUN 25, 220539Z JUN 25) promoting "Day of Memory and Sorrow" events further cements this historical framing for the domestic audience. Филолог в засаде (220415Z JUN 25) also reinforces this. Басурин о главном (220445Z JUN 25) contributes to this historical framing. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

Global Diversion Potential: The extreme escalation of RUF's fabricated "global crisis" narratives, particularly the false claim of an Iranian MRBM strike on Ukraine, fabricated Israeli/Iranian strikes, and narratives of US war preparations and false US military strikes on Iran attributed to "Trump," including fabricated "confirmations" from "Iranian officials," false Netanyahu statements, and false UN statements, and the new use of GBU-57 MOP video, and WarGonzo's claim of "Tehran officially accused the US," and TASS's use of "NASA" data and "Iranian/Saudi official" statements, and the latest claims of "Iranian missiles attack Tel Aviv and Haifa," and claims of tactical nuclear weapons use, poses an EXTREME risk of diverting international attention and resources from Ukraine. The goal is to create sufficient chaos and uncertainty to justify a larger RUF escalation in Ukraine under this pretext, potentially even by staging a false-flag operation. The immediacy of the RUF reporting on "US strikes" and Trump's alleged statement indicates a rapid-response, high-impact IO play. This is strongly supported by Dempster-Shafer analysis on "Information Warfare: Disinformation Campaign by Russia." The June 22, 1941, historical parallel and WWII revisionism, now amplified by TASS commemorating "Day of Memory and Sorrow" (220333Z JUN 25, 220539Z JUN 25) and Филолог в засаде (220415Z JUN 25) and Военкор Котенок (220435Z JUN 25), is a direct warning signal for a major military offensive coinciding with this date, designed to be seen by external observers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Ukrainian Diplomatic Offensive: Ukraine's declared "month of diplomatic pressure" will be critical to consolidate and expand international support and isolate Russia, directly countering RUF's ongoing diversionary tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Belarus Talks: Unconfirmed reports of US Kellogg-Lukashenka talks indicate potential diplomatic avenues or attempts to manage regional dynamics. (LOW CONFIDENCE on content, HIGH CONFIDENCE on report of talks).

4.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

NONE.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

Sustained Strategic Strikes, Escalated Ground Offensives, and False-Flag Pretexts: RUF will continue high-intensity, multi-wave air and missile strikes targeting critical energy and industrial infrastructure and urban centers (e.g., Odesa). Expect continued tactical aviation activity with confirmed Ka-52M strikes and drone attacks. Ground operations will see sustained, high-intensity assaults on the Pokrovsk/Mirnohrad and Siversk/Redkodub axes and escalated ground probes and limited advances on the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Orikhiv axes, supported by heavy aviation, drones, and thermobaric weapons (TOS-1A). In the information domain, RUF will continue to intensify its "global crisis" fabrication, now including more complex and frequent fabricated kinetic events (e.g., active Iran-Israel conflict, false US attacks on Iran, attributed to "Trump," with fabricated confirmations and news headlines, including false quotes from officials, and new fabricated statements from Trump and Netanyahu, "Iranian official confirmations," the use of GBU-57 MOP video, and the new attempt to use "NASA" data and "Iranian/Saudi official" statements for "corroboration" and claims of "Iranian missile attacks on Israel," and claims of tactical nuclear weapons use). This is likely to culminate in a major, fabricated false-flag event or a direct, overt kinetic escalation inside Ukraine attributed to a third party (e.g., "Iranian retaliation" or "US-sponsored sabotage") to provide a pretext for RUF's own large-scale offensive. The consistent and synchronized historical allusion by multiple RUF milbloggers to June 22, 1941, and its amplification by state-affiliated channels suggests a very high probability of RUF launching a significant, multi-axis offensive operation beginning around this date. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

Decisive Strategic Offensive with Global Diversion & False-Flag Operations: RUF launches a major, synchronized, multi-pronged ground offensive across the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Siversk (Donetsk) axes, aiming for decisive operational breakthroughs and the capture of key logistical hubs. This offensive would be preceded by an overwhelming, multi-vector missile and drone attack. Concurrently, RUF executes a large-scale, high-impact false-flag operation inside Ukraine (e.g., a "dirty bomb" detonation, a chemical attack, or a major infrastructure collapse), immediately attributing it to its fabricated "international conflict." This would aim to trigger a severe global crisis, forcing international attention and resources away from Ukraine, and potentially disrupting aid flows at a critical juncture of RUF ground operations, while simultaneously justifying RUF's aggressive actions as "counter-terrorism" or "stabilization." The strong and synchronized historical analogy to June 22, 1941, and WWII revisionism reinforces the likelihood of a major offensive coinciding with the extreme IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

Immediate (Next 0-6 hours, starting from 220559Z JUN 25):
- RUF: Expect immediate and sustained ground pressure on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes, potentially intensifying to a full-scale offensive given the June 22, 1941, historical allusions. Continued localized kinetic strikes (KAB, artillery, TOS-1A) on frontline areas, and confirmed Ka-52M helicopter strikes. High probability of continued air/missile/UAV threats to other oblasts (e.g., Odesa confirmed). RUF IO will continue to react to Ukrainian diplomatic announcements and attempt to propagate justifications for recent strikes, while further pushing the fabricated global crisis, including new "evidence" of the "Iran-Israel/US war" and claims of UAF equipment losses. The immediate reporting of US attacks on Iran attributed to "Trump," "Iranian official confirmations," and the use of GBU-57 MOP video, and claims of "Iranian missile attacks on Israel," and claims of tactical nuclear weapons use, is designed to intensify this narrative. Expect new fabricated quotes from US and Israeli officials. Expect further WWII revisionist narratives from TASS. Expect further attempts by TASS to use "credible" sources (e.g., NASA, Iranian Nuclear Safety Center) or official statements (Iranian FM, Saudi nuclear regulator) to "corroborate" fabricated events.
- UAF Decision Point: Immediately elevate readiness levels for a large-scale ground offensive on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes. Maintain high alert for air and artillery threats. Initiate rapid BDA on Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, and Odesa strikes. Prioritize immediate verification of RUF claims on all axes. Prepare robust counter-IO responses for RUF's increasingly absurd global crisis fabrications and their use of war crime incitement, including their claims of drone captures and false Israeli/Iranian/US strikes. Rapidly and aggressively debunk any fabricated "Trump" statements regarding US attacks on Iran, leveraging all available diplomatic and media channels, and expose the attempts to use "NASA" or other official entities to lend credibility to the fabrications. Dispel the Hitler historical analogy and WWII revisionism as Russian imperialist ambition and a clear signal of an imminent, large-scale offensive. Continue to provide transparent updates on RUF losses and UAF defensive successes.
Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
- RUF: High probability of sustained, high-intensity ground assaults in Donetsk (Pokrovsk/Mirnohrad, Siversk/Redkodub) and a significant, multi-axis ground offensive on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes, supported by heavy aviation, drones, and thermobaric weapons. Expect RUF to attempt to launch a more coherent and impactful phase of its global crisis fabrication, potentially involving a new, larger false-flag event to serve as a pretext for the multi-axis offensive.
- UAF Decision Point: Continue to reinforce defensive positions on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk/Mirnohrad, Siversk/Redkodub) and actively prepare for and counter the predicted major ground offensive on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes, deploying strategic reserves as necessary and leveraging newly constructed fortifications. Sustain deep strike operations against RUF logistics. Implement a comprehensive IO strategy for the "month of diplomatic pressure," ensuring consistent messaging globally and swiftly debunking RUF counter-narratives, emphasizing the dangerous nature of their global crisis fabrications, incitement to war crimes, and deliberate attempts to create a global conflict.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Surge all-source ISR to the Sumy and Kharkiv axes to determine the scale, disposition, and intent of Russian ground forces. Provide immediate warning of any indicators of a shift from shaping operations to a major offensive. This remains the #1 intelligence priority. The historical allusion to June 22, 1941, and WWII revisionism must be taken seriously as a potential signal for a major offensive coinciding with this date.
IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch a dedicated, 24/7, multi-agency task force for real-time forensic analysis and debunking of Russia's extreme IO fabrications, specifically the false Iranian MRBM strike claim, fabricated "visual evidence" of Israeli/Iranian strikes, the NEW fabricated US attacks on Iran attributed to "Trump" with false confirmations and headlines, and the use of the June 22, 1941, historical analogy and WWII revisionism, as well as incitement to war crimes. Prioritize exposing RUF's attempts to use "NASA" data and "Iranian/Saudi official" statements to lend credibility to their fabrications, and the ongoing fabrication of "Iranian missile attacks on Israel," and the claims of tactical nuclear weapons use. Rapidly disseminate evidence-based counter-narratives to international partners and media.
IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Prioritize all-source intelligence collection on the Siversk, Mirnohrad, Dolhenke, Redkodub, Muravka, Dylyivka, and Orikhiv axes (Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia Oblast) to verify RUF's claimed "breakthrough" and capture, and assess the scale and intent of any offensive.
URGENT: Conduct immediate and comprehensive BDA of the Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa strikes to identify targeting patterns and inform AD and civil defense posture.
ONGOING: Actively monitor and counter RUF claims of UAF equipment captures, providing accurate and verified information to counter their morale-boosting narratives.
URGENT: Investigate the veracity and implications of the reported Kellogg-Lukashenka talks in Belarus.

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Re-posture and reinforce AD assets, particularly anti-ballistic/hypersonic missile and counter-KAB systems, to the Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts in anticipation of further strikes supporting a potential ground offensive and targeting strategic infrastructure.
URGENT/CRITICAL: Maintain maximum AD alert posture in all major cities, prioritizing protection of critical infrastructure (energy, logistics) and civilian population centers against mass combined-arms attacks.
URGENT: Disseminate updated force protection guidance for civilians and first responders addressing the threat of cluster-type munitions with anti-personnel fragmentation.

6.3. Ground Forces:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain a flexible strategic reserve prepared for rapid deployment to the Sumy and Kharkiv axes to counter a potential large-scale RUF ground assault. Leverage newly constructed fortifications and prioritize reinforcement of these sectors.
URGENT: Reinforce defensive positions around Pokrovsk, Mirnohrad, Siversk, Redkodub, Muravka, Dylyivka, and Orikhiv to counter continued high-intensity RUF assaults, including the confirmed use of TOS-1A systems and drone operations, and new Ka-52M helicopter strikes.
URGENT: Disperse and protect UAF drone and communications assets (Starlink) from RUF artillery and drone targeting. Accelerate fielding of counter-drone EW systems to frontline units.
ONGOING: Continue to execute precision deep strikes against high-value RUF logistical targets (e.g., fuel depots, ammunition dumps, rail lines) to degrade their sustainment capabilities.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic: