Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 212230Z JUN 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Donetsk Oblast (Dolhenke, Redkodub): RUF claims "liberation" of Dolhenke and subsequent targeting of UAF in Redkodub. This indicates a continued RUF push in the Lyman-Siversk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim; LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity without UAF confirmation)
• Donetsk Oblast (Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Siversk, Mirnohrad): RUF continues kinetic pressure, focusing on terrorizing civilian populations in liberated areas. Milblogger claims of "breaking through" UAF defenses towards Siversk and Mirnohrad persist. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim; LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity without UAF confirmation)
• Poltava Oblast (Kremenchuk): Massive combined-arms strike on strategic energy infrastructure underscores RUF's intent to degrade Ukraine's economic and industrial capacity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Sumy Axis: RUF claims "active combat in nearly 10 settlements," indicating continued pressure and potential for a major ground offensive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim; MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity of claimed gains)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

• No significant changes to previous assessment. Conditions remain conducive to UAV and air operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces (UAF):
  • Air Defense (AD): Demonstrated successful engagement of ballistic missile threats over Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia. Despite impacts in Sumy and Kramatorsk, UAF AD remains largely effective against high-volume attacks, though saturation remains a risk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ground Forces: Conducting robust defensive operations on all axes, including a successful raid by the 63rd Mechanized Brigade in the Lyman direction. Formation of the Grouping of Forces of Unmanned Systems indicates adaptation to drone warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Logistics & Sustainment: Demonstrated capability for deep strikes against RUF logistics (Tokmak fuel train) indicating maintained support for offensive operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Russian Forces (RUF):
  • Kinetic Operations: Continued high-intensity ballistic missile, Kinzhal, cruise missile, and Shahed strikes across Ukraine, notably on Kremenchuk (Poltava Oblast), Sumy, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk. Use of anti-personnel fragments in Kremenchuk suggests deliberate intent to maximize civilian casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ground Operations: Sustained pressure on the Pokrovsk axis with claims of breaking through towards Mirnohrad. Escalated claims of "active combat" in Sumy Oblast indicate a significant increase in claimed operational tempo. New claims of "liberation" of Dolhenke and subsequent targeting of Redkodub signal continued push towards Lyman/Siversk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on claims; LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on actual gains)
  • Logistics & Sustainment: Vulnerability highlighted by the successful UAF strike on a fuel train in Tokmak. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Information Operations (IO): Intensified "Iran-Israel crisis" fabrication, now including false claims of Iranian MRBM strikes on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, using fabricated video and other "evidence" to promote global diversion. Explicit calls to "finish off survivors" and fabricating terror tactics (booby-trapped scooters) indicate a dangerous normalization of war crimes in their narrative. New RUF milblogger claims of significant UAF drone captures are likely propaganda to boost morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Verify RUF claims of "liberating" Dolhenke and subsequently targeting Redkodub. Determine the scale of any RUF advance and specific units involved. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: GEOINT, IMINT, HUMINT).
• CRITICAL: Verify RUF claims of "breaking through" UAF defenses towards Siversk (Donetsk Oblast) and Mirnohrad. Determine the scale of any RUF advance and specific units involved. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: GEOINT, IMINT, HUMINT).
• CRITICAL: Verify RUF ground combat claims and force disposition on the Sumy axis. Determine if the claim of "active combat in 10 settlements" is exaggerated propaganda or indicates the start of a major ground offensive. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: GEOINT, IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
• CRITICAL: Conduct comprehensive BDA on the Kremenchuk strike. Determine the full extent of damage to energy infrastructure, specific types and number of munitions, and impact of anti-personnel fragments. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: GEOINT, IMINT, OSINT).
• CRITICAL: Assess the real-world impact of Russia's new, extreme IO fabrications, specifically the false claim of an Iranian MRBM strike on Ukraine. Monitor international diplomatic and media channels for any traction or confusion caused by this narrative. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
• HIGH: Assess the veracity of RUF claims regarding UAF drone captures and their impact on UAF ISR and strike capabilities. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Assess the effectiveness of RUF's new counter-drone tactics (artillery targeting UAF drone teams, Starlink strikes) and the impact on UAF ISR and strike capabilities. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, IMINT, HUMINT).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Ground Capabilities: RUF maintains capability for high-intensity, multi-directional ground assaults, particularly on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk/Mirnohrad, Siversk/Redkodub) and increasingly on the Sumy axis. Forces are supported by intense KAB and UAV strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Air/Missile Capabilities: RUF possesses and effectively employs a diverse range of missile and UAV assets (ballistic, Kinzhal, cruise, Shahed, KAB) for large-scale, multi-wave attacks designed to overwhelm AD and degrade strategic infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Information Warfare Capabilities: RUF's IO apparatus is highly capable of sophisticated, multi-faceted disinformation campaigns, now escalated to direct fabrication of kinetic events on Ukrainian soil and explicit promotion of war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Intentions: RUF intends to:
  • Degrade Ukrainian Energy/Industrial Capacity: Continue large-scale strikes on strategic energy and industrial infrastructure (Kremenchuk). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Terrorize Civilian Population: Maximize civilian casualties through the use of anti-personnel munitions and indiscriminate shelling (Kremenchuk, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Achieve Operational Breakthrough: Maintain severe pressure on the Donetsk axis and initiate a major ground offensive on the Sumy axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Divert Global Attention: Utilize increasingly absurd and dangerous fabrications (false "Iran-Israel crisis," Iranian strike on Ukraine) to create global chaos and justify further escalation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Demoralize UAF and Incite War Crimes: Promote narratives that normalize violence against civilians and combatants. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Provide Diplomatic Cover: Use deceptive "peace proposals" to mask kinetic and informational escalations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• RUF: Significant escalation in air/missile targeting to strategic energy infrastructure (Kremenchuk). Increased ground combat claims and potential escalation on the Sumy axis. Critical escalation in IO, with direct fabrication of kinetic events inside Ukraine linked to the global crisis narrative and new claims of drone captures. Open promotion of war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF: Successful AD against high-volume attacks. Continued deep strike capabilities against RUF logistics. Adaptation to drone warfare with the establishment of the Grouping of Forces of Unmanned Systems. Proactive diplomatic IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• RUF: The successful UAF strike on the fuel train in Tokmak indicates a vulnerability in long-distance logistics. However, the sustained high-volume of air and missile strikes indicates continued, albeit potentially strained, munition supply. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF: Continued successful AD engagements and deep strikes indicate maintained logistical support for these operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• RUF: C2 effectively coordinates large-scale, multi-domain kinetic operations. The extreme nature of the IO campaign suggests either a highly centralized, calculated decision to abandon all pretense of truth, or a significant degree of autonomy for milbloggers who are pushing increasingly desperate narratives. The false Iranian strike claim, however, indicates a centrally coordinated, dangerous escalation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on kinetic/ground C2; MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE on calculated IO escalation).
• UAF: UAF C2 demonstrates effective real-time AD response, ongoing ISR/targeting coordination for deep strikes, and adaptable force generation (drone units). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.5. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Assess if the extreme escalation in RUF's IO (Iranian strike on Ukraine) is a precursor to a major false-flag event or a direct military escalation, and identify potential targets or methods. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Determine the specific RUF units and tactics employed in the claimed advances towards Siversk, Mirnohrad, Dolhenke, and Redkodub, and on the Sumy axis, to assess their impact on UAF defensive operations. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: GEOINT, IMINT, SIGINT).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Defensive Posture: UAF AD maintains a high state of readiness, successfully intercepting a significant portion of incoming threats. Ground forces are engaged in robust defensive operations on all critical axes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Offensive Capabilities: UAF demonstrates effective deep strike capabilities against RUF logistics. The establishment of specialized drone units indicates adaptive offensive capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Readiness: UAF components, including AD, specialized strike units, and ground combat brigades, demonstrate continued operational readiness despite persistent RUF pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes:
  • AD Engagement: Successful AD engagement against a significant portion of incoming missiles/UAVs, including ballistic threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ISR/Targeting: Successful UAF strike on RUF fuel train in Tokmak, demonstrating effective deep strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ground Tactics: Successful raid by the 63rd Mechanized Brigade, taking RUF POWs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Force Adaptation: Operationalization of the Grouping of Forces of Unmanned Systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Diplomatic Initiative: Announcement of a "month of diplomatic pressure" on Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Setbacks:
  • Strategic Infrastructure Damage: Successful RUF strike on Kremenchuk energy infrastructure poses a significant long-term risk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Civilian Casualties/Risk: Persistent strikes on Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, and Kremenchuk (with anti-personnel fragments) continue to cause civilian casualties and terrorize populations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Escalated Ground Pressure: RUF claims of breakthrough towards Mirnohrad, the capture of Dolhenke, and active combat in Sumy represent increased pressure on critical axes, requiring significant defensive effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on claims)
  • Hybrid Warfare Impact: The extreme escalation of RUF's IO, particularly the false Iranian strike claim, poses a significant risk of global diversion and legitimizing false pretexts for RUF escalation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Air Defense Munitions & Platforms: Continued high-volume RUF air and missile strikes (ballistic, Kinzhal, cruise, Shahed, KAB) necessitate sustained, robust replenishment of AD munitions and platforms, especially for strategic infrastructure and urban defense.
• Long-Range Precision Strike Assets: Continued requirement for long-range precision strike assets to interdict RUF logistics and high-value targets, including deeper into occupied territories.
• Counter-Drone Capabilities: Urgent requirement for advanced EW and kinetic counter-drone systems to protect UAF drone teams and communications (Starlink) from RUF targeting.
• Ground Force Sustainment: Consistent supply of ammunition, medical supplies, and protective equipment for forces engaged in high-intensity defensive operations, particularly on the Donetsk and Sumy axes.

3.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• NONE.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian:
  • Critical Escalation of "Iran-Israel" Fabrication: RUF channels (e.g., Colonelcassad, Операция Z, НгП раZVедка, Alex Parker Returns) continue to explicitly fabricate kinetic events, falsely claiming an Iranian MRBM strike on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This includes using fabricated video and other "visual evidence." This represents a dangerous, systemic escalation to create a direct link between the fabricated global crisis and kinetic events in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Incitement to War Crimes: RUF-affiliated channels are now openly calling to "finish off the survivors" and promoting fabricated stories of assassinating UAF soldiers with booby-trapped civilian items. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Morale Boosting/Justification: Milbloggers promote patches (e.g., from Colonelcassad) and continue to claim battlefield successes (e.g., Siversk breakthrough, Mirnohrad pressure, Dolhenke capture, drone captures) to boost domestic morale and justify actions. New RUF claims of capturing a significant number of UAF drones (evidenced by photos of various drone types) are likely part of this effort, potentially exaggerated or depicting collected drone remnants. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Deceptive Diplomacy: Russia's public "peace proposal" for 22 JUN is a clear deception tactic to provide cover for kinetic and informational escalations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Ukrainian:
  • Transparency and Warning: Timely and accurate reporting of air raid alerts and all-clear statuses, building public trust. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Highlighting Enemy Atrocities/Successes: Reporting on Kremenchuk, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk strikes highlights RUF aggression and civilian casualties, while reporting on UAF successes (Tokmak fuel train, 63rd Brigade raid) showcases capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Proactive Diplomatic IO: Announced "month of diplomatic pressure" signals a shift to a more assertive diplomatic information posture. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian: Persistent strategic strikes on critical infrastructure (Kremenchuk) and urban centers (Kramatorsk, Sloviansk) will increase public anxiety. However, successful AD and deep strikes, coupled with visible military adaptation (drone units), will bolster confidence in UAF's defensive capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Russian: RUF's domestic messaging around military "successes" (including claimed drone captures) and "normalization" aims to reinforce stability. The extreme nature of the "global crisis" fabrication, if widely exposed, carries the risk of discrediting Russian state media and milbloggers among more discerning audiences, though internal suppression ensures limited exposure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Global Diversion Potential: The extreme escalation of RUF's fabricated "global crisis" narratives, particularly the false claim of an Iranian MRBM strike on Ukraine, poses an EXTREME risk of diverting international attention and resources from Ukraine. The goal is to create sufficient chaos and uncertainty to justify a larger RUF escalation in Ukraine under this pretext, potentially even by staging a false-flag operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Ukrainian Diplomatic Offensive: Ukraine's declared "month of diplomatic pressure" will be critical to consolidate and expand international support and isolate Russia, directly countering RUF's ongoing diversionary tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• NONE.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Sustained Strategic Strikes, Escalated Ground Offensives, and False-Flag Pretexts: RUF will continue high-intensity, multi-wave air and missile strikes targeting critical energy and industrial infrastructure (e.g., Kremenchuk type attacks) and urban centers across Ukraine, likely expanding to disrupt logistical nodes. Ground operations will see sustained, high-intensity assaults on the Pokrovsk/Mirnohrad and Siversk/Redkodub axes and escalated ground probes and limited advances on the Sumy axis, supported by heavy aviation and drone activity. In the information domain, RUF will continue to intensify its "global crisis" fabrication, likely culminating in a major, fabricated false-flag event or a direct, overt kinetic escalation inside Ukraine attributed to a third party (e.g., "Iranian retaliation") to provide a pretext for RUF's own large-scale offensive. RUF will also continue to amplify claims of UAF equipment captures, particularly drones, to boost domestic morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Decisive Strategic Offensive with Global Diversion & False-Flag Operations: RUF launches a major, synchronized, multi-pronged ground offensive across the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Siversk (Donetsk) axes, aiming for decisive operational breakthroughs and the capture of key logistical hubs. This offensive would be preceded by an overwhelming, multi-vector missile and drone attack designed to saturate and degrade UAF AD and C2 across all sectors, creating localized air superiority for ground support. Concurrently, RUF executes a large-scale, high-impact false-flag operation inside Ukraine (e.g., a "dirty bomb" detonation, a chemical attack, or a major infrastructure collapse), immediately attributing it to its fabricated "international conflict" (e.g., "Iranian/Western sabotage"). This would aim to trigger a severe global crisis, forcing international attention and resources away from Ukraine, and potentially disrupting aid flows at a critical juncture of RUF ground operations, while simultaneously justifying RUF's aggressive actions as "counter-terrorism" or "stabilization." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 6-12 hours):
  • RUF: Expect continued localized kinetic strikes (KAB, artillery) on frontline areas. RUF IO will continue to react to Ukrainian diplomatic announcements and attempt to propagate justifications for recent strikes, while further pushing the fabricated global crisis and potentially new "evidence" and claims of UAF equipment losses.
  • UAF Decision Point: Maintain high alert for air and artillery threats, particularly in eastern, northern, and central regions (Poltava). Initiate rapid BDA on Kremenchuk, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk strikes. Prioritize immediate verification of RUF claims on the Sumy, Siversk, Mirnohrad, Dolhenke, and Redkodub axes. Prepare robust counter-IO responses for RUF's increasingly absurd global crisis fabrications and their use of war crime incitement, including their claims of drone captures.
• Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
  • RUF: High probability of sustained, high-intensity ground assaults in Donetsk (Pokrovsk/Mirnohrad, Siversk/Redkodub) and a significant intensification of ground actions on the Sumy axis, supported by aviation and drones. Expect RUF to attempt to launch a more coherent and impactful phase of its global crisis fabrication, potentially involving a new, larger false-flag event to serve as a pretext.
  • UAF Decision Point: Continue to reinforce defensive positions on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk/Mirnohrad, Siversk/Redkodub) and prepare for potential major ground offensive on the Sumy axis, deploying strategic reserves as necessary. Sustain deep strike operations against RUF logistics. Implement a comprehensive IO strategy for the "month of diplomatic pressure," ensuring consistent messaging globally and swiftly debunking RUF counter-narratives, emphasizing the dangerous nature of their global crisis fabrications and incitement to war crimes.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Surge all-source ISR to the Sumy axis to determine the scale, disposition, and intent of Russian ground forces. Provide immediate warning of any indicators of a shift from shaping operations to a major offensive. This is the #1 intelligence priority.
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch a dedicated, 24/7, multi-agency task force for real-time forensic analysis and debunking of Russia's extreme IO fabrications, specifically the false Iranian MRBM strike claim, fabricated "visual evidence," and incitement to war crimes. Rapidly disseminate evidence-based counter-narratives to international partners and media.
3. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Prioritize all-source intelligence collection on the Siversk, Mirnohrad, Dolhenke, and Redkodub axes (Donetsk Oblast) to verify RUF's claimed "breakthrough" and capture, and assess the scale and intent of any offensive.
4. URGENT: Conduct immediate and comprehensive BDA of the Kremenchuk strike to identify targeting patterns, munitions used (especially anti-personnel elements), and inform AD and civil defense posture.
5. ONGOING: Enhance SIGINT and GEOINT collection along the Kharkiv and Chernihiv axes to detect any shifts in RUF force disposition or preparatory activities for a major offensive.
6. ONGOING: Actively monitor and counter RUF claims of UAF equipment captures, providing accurate and verified information to counter their morale-boosting narratives.

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Re-posture and reinforce AD assets, particularly anti-ballistic/hypersonic missile and counter-KAB systems, to the Sumy and Poltava axes in anticipation of further strikes supporting a potential ground offensive and targeting strategic infrastructure.
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Maintain maximum AD alert posture in all major cities, prioritizing protection of critical infrastructure (energy, logistics) and civilian population centers against mass combined-arms attacks.
3. URGENT: Disseminate updated force protection guidance for civilians and first responders addressing the threat of cluster-type munitions with anti-personnel fragmentation.

6.3. Ground Forces:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain a flexible strategic reserve prepared for rapid deployment to the Sumy axis to counter a potential large-scale RUF ground assault. Leverage newly constructed fortifications.
2. URGENT: Reinforce defensive positions around Pokrovsk, Mirnohrad, Siversk, and Redkodub to counter continued high-intensity RUF assaults.
3. URGENT: Disperse and protect UAF drone and communications assets (Starlink) from RUF artillery and drone targeting. Accelerate fielding of counter-drone EW systems to frontline units.
4. ONGOING: Continue to execute precision deep strikes against high-value RUF logistical targets (e.g., fuel depots, ammunition dumps, rail lines) to degrade their sustainment capabilities.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch an unprecedented, globally coordinated IO and diplomatic campaign to expose Russia's dangerous and irresponsible fabrications, specifically the false claim of an Iranian MRBM strike on Ukraine. Frame this as a direct threat to global security and an attempt to create a pretext for wider conflict. Highlight the use of fictional content and incitement to war crimes.
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Aggressively publicize evidence of RUF's use of anti-personnel munitions in the Kremenchuk strike, framing it as a deliberate war crime and act of terror against civilians. Provide all evidence to international legal bodies (ICC, ICJ).
3. URGENT: Publicly reject Russia's disingenuous "peace offer" as a classic deception tactic designed to accompany military escalation, and pre-emptively dismiss it. Reiterate Ukraine's commitment to a just peace based on the full restoration of its territorial integrity.