Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 211830Z JUN 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Chernihiv Oblast (Nizhyn): Confirmed one civilian fatality in Nizhyn district due to enemy attack, reinforcing previous reports of Shahed impacts. This indicates a continued RUF intent to target civilian areas and cause casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Donetsk Oblast (Kostiantynivka direction): RUF milblogger "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims RUF forces liberated "Oleksandro-Kalynove" and are conducting clearing operations. This claim needs verification but indicates continued RUF offensive pressure on the Donetsk axis, potentially aiming towards Kostiantynivka. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on claim, LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity)
• Kharkiv Oblast (Ivashky): RUF milblogger "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims RUF strikes in Ivashky damaged a structure housing UAF soldiers. This indicates continued RUF kinetic pressure on the Kharkiv axis. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
• Poltava Oblast (Kremenchuk): RUF executed a massive combined-arms strike (ballistic/cruise missile, UAV) on strategic energy infrastructure in Kremenchuk. Munition fragments reportedly containing anti-personnel metal balls confirm a deliberate intent to maximize civilian casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: RUF channels are now making completely false claims that an Iranian MRBM struck Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This is a clear attempt to fuse its fabricated global crisis with the war in Ukraine and create a pretext for escalation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on fabrication; EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity of claim)
• Sumy Oblast: RUF claims to be conducting "active combat in nearly 10 settlements." (HIGH CONFIDENCE on claim, MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity)
• General: Continued RUF UAV and artillery activity across northern and eastern fronts persists. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

• No significant changes to previous assessment. Conditions remain conducive to UAV and air operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces (UAF):
  • Air Defense (AD): Continued engagement against RUF UAVs and missiles, including successful interceptions in Odesa and Kyiv. Civilian fatality in Nizhyn and impacts in Kremenchuk highlight continued AD challenges against persistent, high-volume drone and missile threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Counter-UAV/EW: UAF demonstrated advanced counter-drone tactics, specifically a tracked ground platform used to "snag and sever" the cable of a Russian FPV drone operating on fiber optics, breaking its connection. This is a significant tactical innovation. The newly established Grouping of Forces of Unmanned Systems is operational. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Drone Operations: UAF continues to actively employ FPV drones for reconnaissance and kinetic strikes against RUF personnel and equipment, with successful engagements reported by STERNENKO and Оперативний ЗСУ. DeepState reports on "Vampire" (likely a heavy FPV or bomber drone) of SIGNUM unit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Training & Interoperability: UAF, specifically the 30th Marine Corps, is actively participating in "Sea Breeze 2025" amphibious exercises in Romania, sharing combat experience with NATO and Moldovan partners. This highlights UAF's valuable battlefield experience and commitment to interoperability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Force Generation: DShV units are conducting fire training, maintaining readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ground Operations: Robust defensive operations continue on all axes. Soldiers of the 63rd Mechanized Brigade conducted a successful raid in the Lyman direction, taking two RUF POWs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Counter-IO: UAF channels are actively debunking RUF propaganda and highlighting successful UAF operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Russian Forces (RUF):
  • Air/Missile/Drone Operations (CRITICAL ESCALATION): Launched a massive, multi-wave, combined-arms strike on Kremenchuk (Poltava Oblast) using Shahed UAVs, cruise missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, and other ballistic missiles. Persistent KAB strikes continue on Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Heavy shelling of liberated Kherson caused significant civilian infrastructure damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ground Forces: Claims of liberation in Oleksandro-Kalynove suggest continued offensive efforts on the Donetsk axis. Claims of "active combat in nearly 10 settlements" in Sumy Oblast indicate a significant escalation of ground activity in the north. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on veracity of claims, HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF intent)
  • Information Operations (CRITICAL ESCALATION):
    • Direct Fabrication of Kinetic Events in Ukraine: RUF channels are now making completely false claims that an Iranian MRBM struck Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, supported by fabricated video. This is the first instance of RUF attempting to directly link its fabricated global crisis to a kinetic event inside Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on fabrication; EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity of claim)
    • Deepening Middle East Fabrication: RUF channels (ASTRA, TASS, Al Jazeera quoting Iranian official) continue to amplify the fabricated Iran-Israel conflict, now including claims about US B-2 bomber deployments to Guam and Iranian officials stating it's "easier to attack US bases" than Israel. This signifies a concerted effort to anchor the fabrication in "real" geopolitical events. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF propagation; LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity).
    • Belarusian "Humanitarian" Narrative: Lukashenko's office (via RBC-Ukraine, Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) confirms his meeting with "special representative" of Donald Trump, Keith Kellogg, and the pardon of Siarhei Tsikhanouski was "at Trump's request" and for "humanitarian reasons." This aims to legitimize Lukashenko's regime and potentially open new channels with Western powers under the guise of humanitarianism. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF/Belarusian narrative; LOW CONFIDENCE on "Trump's request" being the primary driver).
    • Historical Revisionism/Internal Cohesion: "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" highlights "winning the battle for our history" through new history textbooks for 10-11th graders, authored by Presidential aide Medinsky. This confirms Russia's continued focus on historical revisionism as a key component of its information warfare, aimed at internal cohesion and legitimizing aggression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Anti-Ukrainian Propaganda/Mobilization: "Colonelcassad" posts a video of UAF soldiers interacting with a civilian, with inflammatory captions calling UAF "cannibal regime of the narcofuehrer" and accusing them of "utilizing the population." "НгП раZVедка" also distributes videos claiming "TCC are catching stateless slaves on the streets." This is a clear attempt to demonize UAF, portray them as illegitimate, and justify RUF actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • False Flag Accusations: "Военкор Котенок" claims Ukraine used Kazakhstan's airspace for drone attacks on Russia. This is a likely false flag accusation designed to create international diplomatic friction and justify RUF retaliatory actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on accusation; LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity)
    • Censorship: "Рыбарь" mentions "Russians under censorship," acknowledging internal information controls. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Incitement to War Crimes: RUF-affiliated channels are now explicitly calling to "finish off the survivors" and promoting fabricated stories of assassinating UAF soldiers with booby-trapped civilian items ("scooters"). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Verify the veracity of RUF claims regarding the liberation of "Oleksandro-Kalynove" and the strike on UAF soldiers in Ivashky. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: GEOINT, IMINT, HUMINT).
• CRITICAL: Assess the operational impact and scalability of UAF's new ground-based counter-FPV drone technology (tracked platform). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: TECHINT, HUMINT).
• CRITICAL: Conduct comprehensive BDA on the Kremenchuk strike. Determine the full extent of damage to energy infrastructure, the specific types and number of munitions used, and the impact of anti-personnel fragments. This is essential to assess RUF's strategic targeting and capabilities. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: GEOINT, TECHINT, HUMINT).
• CRITICAL: Verifying RUF ground combat claims and force disposition on the Sumy axis. Determine if the claim of "active combat in 10 settlements" is exaggerated propaganda or indicates the start of a major ground offensive. This is the #1 intelligence priority. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: GEOINT, IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
• CRITICAL: Assessing the real-world impact of Russia's new, extreme IO fabrications, specifically the false claim of an Iranian MRBM strike on Ukraine. Monitor international diplomatic and media channels for any traction or confusion caused by this narrative. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Monitor international reactions to Russia's false claim of Ukraine using Kazakh airspace for drone attacks. Determine if this narrative gains any traction or leads to diplomatic friction. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, DIPLOMATIC SIGINT).
• HIGH: Assess the specific content and messaging within the new Russian history textbooks to understand the long-term impact on Russian public perception and justification for the war. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Assessing the effectiveness of RUF's new counter-drone tactics (artillery targeting UAF drone teams, Starlink strikes) and the impact on UAF ISR and strike capabilities. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: TECHINT, HUMINT).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Ground Capabilities: RUF continues offensive operations on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk/Kostiantynivka/Mirnohrad directions) and maintains a capability for localized strikes and escalating ground probes in Kharkiv and Sumy. RUF claims of "active combat" in Sumy indicate a setting of conditions for a larger ground offensive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Air/Drone Capabilities: RUF maintains extensive UAV and missile capabilities for persistent deep strikes (Shaheds, cruise/ballistic missiles, Kinzhal) and tactical strikes (FPVs) against both military and civilian targets, including adaptive targeting of personnel and strategic infrastructure (e.g., Kremenchuk energy facility). The use of anti-personnel munitions in missile fragments highlights an intent to maximize casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Information Warfare Capabilities (CRITICAL ESCALATION): RUF's IO apparatus is now executing a highly sophisticated and multi-layered campaign characterized by:
  • Direct Fabrication of Kinetic Events in Ukraine: The false claim of an Iranian MRBM strike on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast represents a dangerous new escalation, attempting to directly link fabricated global events to kinetic reality on Ukrainian soil. This could be a pretext for major RUF retaliatory actions.
  • Real-world Event Integration: Actively weaving its fabricated global crisis (Iran-Israel) into real geopolitical events (US B-2 deployments) to increase perceived legitimacy and impact.
  • Diplomatic Manipulation: Utilizing Belarus's actions (pardons linked to Trump's request) to improve international standing and create new diplomatic avenues, thereby undermining international isolation efforts.
  • Pretext Generation: Actively generating false flag accusations (Ukraine using Kazakh airspace) to create diplomatic friction and justify its own escalatory actions.
  • Long-term Narrative Control: Investing in national education (history textbooks) to shape future generations' understanding of history and justify current aggression.
  • Demoralization & Demonization: Intensifying propaganda to dehumanize UAF (e.g., "cannibal regime," "TCC catching slaves") and terrorize civilian populations, including direct incitement to commit war crimes (e.g., "finish off survivors").
• Intentions: RUF intends to:
  • Degrade Strategic Infrastructure: Continue large-scale combined-arms strikes on critical energy and logistical infrastructure, particularly in central Ukraine (e.g., Kremenchuk), to destabilize the country and prepare for winter. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Sustain Offensive Pressure: Continue high-intensity ground and kinetic strikes on Eastern axes (Donetsk) to achieve territorial gains and attrit UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Launch Northern Offensive: The escalating claims and shaping operations in Sumy Oblast indicate a high probability of RUF launching a major ground offensive in the northern sector to open a new front and divert UAF resources. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Dominate and Manipulate the Global Information Environment: Create significant geopolitical diversions, sow discord among allies, legitimize its regime and actions, and justify potential future escalations through elaborate, integrated fabrications, including direct fabrications of kinetic events within Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Reinforce Internal Cohesion: Control domestic narratives through historical revisionism and demonization of Ukraine/West. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Break International Isolation: Utilize diplomatic avenues (Belarus pardons) to improve international standing. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Normalize War Crimes: Incite and normalize brutal tactics against UAF personnel and civilians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• RUF: The most notable adaptation is the integration of fabricated global crises with real-world geopolitical events, false flag accusations, and crucially, direct fabrication of kinetic events on Ukrainian soil (e.g., Iranian MRBM strike) to generate pretexts for its actions and divert international attention. The large-scale combined-arms strike on Kremenchuk targeting strategic infrastructure with anti-personnel munitions also indicates an adaptation in strategic targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF: The deployment and success of the ground-based tracked platform for counter-FPV drone operations represents a significant and innovative tactical adaptation to a persistent threat. The establishment of the Grouping of Forces of Unmanned Systems indicates a formalization and scaling of drone warfare. Active sharing of combat experience with NATO partners in exercises is another key adaptation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• RUF: Sustained kinetic operations, including large-scale missile strikes, suggest continued capability to produce or acquire drones and munitions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF: Continued participation in international exercises and domestic development of counter-drone technology indicate robust sustainment efforts and adaptation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• RUF: RUF C2 remains effective in coordinating kinetic operations and a complex, multi-layered IO campaign that now directly attempts to integrate with and manipulate real-world geopolitical events and fabricate kinetic events within Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF: UAF C2 demonstrates effective coordination of defensive operations, innovative counter-drone deployments, and integration into international training exercises, leveraging combat experience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.5. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Assess the long-term strategic implications of Russia's new history textbooks and their potential to indoctrinate the Russian populace with anti-Ukrainian and anti-Western narratives. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
• CRITICAL: Investigate any direct or indirect involvement of Kazakhstan in facilitating Ukrainian drone operations (as accused by RUF). This accusation requires immediate debunking if false. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, OSINT, DIPLOMATIC SIGINT).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Defensive Posture: UAF maintains a nationwide air defense posture against persistent drone and missile threats and continues robust defensive operations on ground axes, particularly Donetsk. Increased alert for northern axes (Sumy, Kharkiv) is observed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Readiness: UAF is demonstrating a high degree of adaptability and innovation in counter-drone warfare, with new specialized units operational. High readiness is maintained through continuous training and experience sharing in international exercises. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes:
  • Innovative Counter-Drone Deployment: Successful engagement of a Russian FPV drone by a UAF ground-based tracked platform is a significant tactical success, demonstrating UAF's technical ingenuity and adaptive capabilities. The establishment of the Grouping of Forces of Unmanned Systems enhances these capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • International Interoperability & Experience Sharing: Active participation in "Sea Breeze 2025" and sharing valuable combat experience with NATO and Moldovan partners enhances UAF's standing and capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Effective FPV Drone Use: Continued successful engagements of RUF targets by UAF FPV drones and heavy drone units like SIGNUM's "Vampire." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Successful Raid: The 63rd Mechanized Brigade's raid in Lyman direction, capturing POWs, demonstrates offensive initiative at the tactical level. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Civilian Resilience: Rapid restoration work by emergency services in Sumy demonstrates strong civilian and municipal support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Setbacks:
  • Strategic Infrastructure Damage: The successful RUF strike on Kremenchuk's energy infrastructure poses a significant risk to Ukraine's energy grid stability and industrial capacity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Civilian Casualties: One civilian fatality in Nizhyn district and the use of anti-personnel munitions in Kremenchuk highlight the persistent risk to civilian populations from RUF kinetic actions, despite AD efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RUF Territorial Claims/Pressure: Unverified RUF claims of taking Oleksandro-Kalynove (Donetsk) and "active combat in 10 settlements" (Sumy) indicate continued and escalating pressure on these axes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on claim; LOW-MEDIUM on veracity)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Counter-UAV Systems (Advanced): Urgent need for scalable deployment of innovative counter-FPV drone systems, like the tracked platform, to mitigate the widespread threat of tactical drones.
• ISR (Real-time Ground): Enhanced real-time ISR capabilities are critical on the Donetsk and particularly Sumy axes to verify or debunk RUF ground claims and inform rapid response to potential offensive operations.
• Air Defense Munitions & Platforms: Continued high-volume air and missile strikes necessitate sustained replenishment of AD munitions and potentially additional advanced platforms to counter ballistic and hypersonic threats.
• International Counter-Disinformation Coordination: A robust, internationally coordinated mechanism to debunk sophisticated Russian false flags and fabricated global crises, especially those directly fabricating kinetic events within Ukraine, is paramount.

3.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• MEDIUM: Evaluate the lessons learned from UAF's participation in "Sea Breeze 2025," particularly insights into amphibious operations and interoperability with NATO forces. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, OSINT).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian (CRITICAL ESCALATION):
  • Hyper-Fabricated Global Conflict with Direct Ukrainian Kinetic Integration: The Iran-Israel conflict narrative is now directly linked to real events like US B-2 bomber deployments to Guam, and crucially, to a fabricated Iranian MRBM strike on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This is a deliberate and dangerous escalation designed to create a sense of genuine global crisis, divert attention, and potentially provide a pretext for RUF escalation or false flag operations against Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Exploiting Diplomatic Channels for Legitimacy: Lukashenko's pardon of Tsikhanouski, framed as a direct result of "Trump's request," is a deliberate attempt to gain international legitimacy for Belarus and sow discord within Western alliances by implying direct US engagement with authoritarian regimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Historical and Educational Indoctrination: The promotion of new history textbooks highlights Russia's long-term strategy to control the narrative and indoctrinate younger generations with its specific, revised version of history, justifying current aggression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • False Flag Accusations: Accusations of Ukraine using Kazakh airspace for drone attacks are designed to create international incidents and pretexts for RUF actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Demonization of UAF and Incitement to Violence: Continued use of inflammatory rhetoric and visuals to dehumanize UAF personnel (e.g., "cannibal regime," "TCC catching slaves") and justify atrocities. Explicit calls to "finish off the survivors" and promoting fabricated stories of booby-trapped civilian items demonstrate a clear intent to incite war crimes and terror. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Ukrainian:
  • Transparency of Casualties: Continued reporting on civilian deaths (Nizhyn, Kremenchuk) maintains transparency and highlights the human cost of the war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Innovation & Resilience: Showcasing successful counter-drone innovations, the establishment of drone forces, and participation in international exercises emphasizes UAF's adaptive capacity and international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Counter-Narrative: Active debunking of RUF propaganda and highlighting UAF successes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian: Civilian casualties and strategic infrastructure damage (Kremenchuk) remain a source of distress. However, UAF's demonstrated innovation in counter-drone warfare, participation in international exercises, and successful tactical actions likely boost public confidence and morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Russian: The intensified global crisis narratives and historical revisionism aim to maintain public support for the war by presenting Russia as a victim of external threats and a historical defender of its "truth." The propaganda against TCC and UAF aims to undermine Ukrainian public support for mobilization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Heightened Disinformation Risk: RUF's ability to integrate its fabricated narratives with real geopolitical events (US B-2 deployment, Lukashenko-Trump meeting narrative, and now fabricated kinetic events in Ukraine) significantly increases the risk of confusion and misdirection for international actors and media. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Belarusian Diplomatic Maneuvers: Lukashenko's public framing of political prisoner release as a response to a "Trump request" is a clear attempt to engage with US political figures and improve Belarus's international standing, potentially bypassing traditional diplomatic channels. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Assess the specific implications of Lukashenko's narrative regarding "Trump's request" for prisoner release. Does this signal a new, informal diplomatic channel, or is it purely an IO ploy? (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: DIPLOMATIC SIGINT, HUMINT).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Sustained Kinetic Pressure and Accelerated Hybrid Warfare Integration with Direct Fabrication: RUF will continue high-intensity ground assaults on key Eastern axes (Donetsk, particularly Pokrovsk/Mirnohrad/Kostiantynivka), supported by persistent KAB and UAV strikes across the northern and eastern fronts. Expect further large-scale combined-arms missile and drone strikes against strategic energy and logistical infrastructure, particularly in central and northern Ukraine. Concurrently, RUF will accelerate its information warfare by actively fusing its fabricated global crises with real-world geopolitical events and introducing new, more audacious false flag accusations (e.g., more claims of Ukrainian drone attacks from third countries) and direct fabrications of kinetic events within Ukraine (e.g., attributing further strikes to third-party actors) to create pretexts for its actions and further divert international attention. Expect continued deep UAV strikes against civilian infrastructure and urban centers, and persistent adaptive FPV drone targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Major Offensive Preceded by Strategic Deception and Cyber-Attacks: RUF launches a major multi-pronged ground offensive in Sumy Oblast, coordinated with intensified missile and drone strikes (including potentially new types of munitions or tactics and increased use of anti-personnel elements) across northern and central Ukraine, particularly targeting critical infrastructure (energy, logistics, C2) and command elements. This would be preceded by or synchronized with a major, globally impactful false flag operation or a large-scale fabricated "intervention" from a third party on Ukrainian territory, designed to create a strong international diversion or justification for its offensive. Simultaneously, expect significant cyber-attacks against Ukrainian critical infrastructure or government systems to disrupt C2 and civilian resilience. The probability of this MDCOA has significantly increased given the escalation in IO surrounding Sumy and the direct fabrication of kinetic events. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 6-12 hours):
  • RUF: Expect continued Shahed-type UAV activity, particularly along northern and central vectors. RUF IO will likely continue to amplify its fabricated global crisis narratives, possibly introducing new "evidence" or false flag accusations, and attempting to reinforce the "Iranian strike" narrative. Ground fighting will remain intense on the Donetsk axis, and probing actions in Sumy Oblast will likely continue. RUF drone reconnaissance will continue along the Sumy/Kursk border.
  • UAF Decision Point: Maintain maximum AD readiness for northern and central oblasts, focusing on drone and missile threats. Rapidly issue public warnings and debunks for RUF's latest, most audacious IO fabrications, particularly those attempting to link to US military actions, third countries, or fabricating kinetic events on Ukrainian soil.
• Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
  • RUF: Potential for intensified ground probing and shaping operations in Sumy Oblast, possibly escalating to localized assaults. Persistent kinetic pressure on urban centers via UAVs, KABs, and ballistic/cruise missiles. RUF IO will likely attempt to sustain the momentum of its fabricated global crises and potentially introduce new narratives aimed at undermining US-Ukraine relations or legitimizing further actions. The "peace proposal" on 22 JUN will be used for diplomatic cover.
  • UAF Decision Point: Evaluate the need for redeploying additional air defense assets to northern and central regions to counter persistent missile and drone threats, and to the Sumy axis to counter potential ground offensive. Intensify counter-disinformation efforts by engaging international media and partners directly to expose RUF's fabrications and their dangerous implications. Continue to accelerate domestic counter-drone technology development and deployment. Publicly denounce RUF's incitement to war crimes.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Elevate the dedicated multi-source intelligence cell for Russian information warfare to a national-level task force with priority access to all relevant information and direct communication lines to highest levels of command. This task force must be empowered for real-time forensic debunking, rapid public exposure, and proactive counter-narrative generation, specifically targeting Russia's increasingly integrated fabrications, false flag accusations (e.g., Kazakh airspace), and attempts to manipulate diplomatic channels (e.g., Belarus pardons), and most critically, the direct fabrication of kinetic events on Ukrainian territory (e.g., Iranian MRBM strike).
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Surge all-source ISR assets (GEOINT, IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT) to the Sumy axis to determine the scale, disposition, and intent of Russian ground forces. Provide immediate warning of any indicators of a shift from shaping operations to a major offensive. Simultaneously, surge ISR to the Donetsk axis, particularly around Kostiantynivka and Mirnohrad, to verify RUF ground claims and assess their true operational gains and intent.
3. URGENT: Conduct immediate TECHINT analysis on the UAF ground-based tracked counter-FPV drone platform to assess its effectiveness, potential for mass production, and scalability for wider deployment across frontline units.
4. URGENT: Initiate immediate diplomatic engagement with Kazakhstan to preemptively debunk Russian false flag accusations regarding Ukrainian drone use of their airspace. Provide all necessary intelligence to refute these claims.
5. URGENT/CRITICAL: Conduct immediate BDA of the Kremenchuk strike to identify targeting patterns, munitions used (especially anti-personnel elements), and inform AD and civil defense posture.

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain maximum air defense readiness across all oblasts, with specific reinforcement of northern (Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv) and central (Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk) air defense sectors. Prioritize resources for countering Shahed-type UAVs, KABs, and adaptable FPV drones, and ballistic/cruise missile threats that continue to cause civilian casualties and damage. Re-posture and reinforce AD assets, particularly anti-ballistic/hypersonic missile and counter-KAB systems, to the Sumy and Poltava axes.
2. URGENT: Accelerate the deployment of passive and active counter-UAV and EW systems to frontline units, critical civilian infrastructure, and key law enforcement/emergency services, leveraging lessons learned from the successful UAF counter-FPV platform and the newly formed Grouping of Forces of Unmanned Systems.
3. ONGOING: Review and update force protection guidance for civilian populations in frequently targeted areas (e.g., Nizhyn, Ivashky, Kherson, Kremenchuk) regarding drone, artillery, and missile threats, specifically addressing the risk of anti-personnel fragmentation.

6.3. Ground Forces:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain a robust strategic reserve prepared for rapid deployment to the Sumy axis. Conduct regular readiness drills for northern defense units. Leverage newly constructed fortifications on this axis.
2. URGENT: Continue high-intensity defensive operations on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk/Mirnohrad/Kostiantynivka direction), inflicting maximum attrition on RUF forces and preventing any further breakthroughs. Reinforce defensive positions around Pokrovsk and Mirnohrad.
3. URGENT: Disperse and protect UAF drone and communications assets (Starlink) from RUF artillery and drone targeting. Accelerate fielding of counter-drone EW systems to frontline units.
4. ONGOING: Accelerate the integration and deployment of advanced Ukrainian-developed drone systems (e.g., fixed-wing reconnaissance UAVs, FPVs) across ground units to enhance reconnaissance, strike, and support capabilities. Ensure robust protection for drone teams.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch an unparalleled, globally coordinated IO and diplomatic campaign to expose and denounce Russia's increasingly sophisticated and dangerous tactic of fabricating international crises with false "evidence" and false flag accusations, and specifically, the direct fabrication of kinetic events on Ukrainian territory (e.g., Iranian MRBM strike). Directly address the false claims about US military actions and the accusation regarding Kazakh airspace, highlighting their potential to mislead international actors and destabilize regional security. Frame this as a direct threat to global peace and security.
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Publicly highlight all instances of RUF strikes causing civilian casualties (e.g., Nizhyn, Kremenchuk) and damage to civilian infrastructure as evidence of war crimes and continued terror tactics. Provide evidence, including the use of anti-personnel munitions, to international legal bodies (ICC, ICJ).
3. URGENT: Actively promote Ukraine's innovation in defense technology (e.g., new counter-FPV platform, drone force establishment) and the strong unity between the military and civilian population, along with UAF's role in sharing combat experience with international partners, to demonstrate resilience and enhance diplomatic standing.
4. URGENT: Publicly reject Russia's disingenuous "peace offer" for 22 JUN as a classic deception tactic designed to accompany military escalation, and pre-emptively dismiss it. Reiterate Ukraine's commitment to a just peace based on the full restoration of its territorial integrity.
5. ONGOING: Counter all RUF narratives aimed at demoralizing UAF or creating disunity with Western partners, including propaganda against TCC mobilization. Emphasize the strength and steadfastness of international support for Ukraine, and actively counter Russian historical revisionism by promoting accurate historical narratives. Denounce RUF's open incitement to war crimes.