Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 210800Z JUN 25 CLASSIFICATION: SECRET // NOFORN REPORTING UNIT: G2 ANALYST, UAF HIGH COMMAND

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Northern Ukraine (Sumy, Kharkiv Oblasts): RUF continues to employ Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) on Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Previous RUF claims of "liberating" Moskovka (Kharkiv Oblast) and semi-encircling a Ukrainian grouping towards Kupiansk remain unverified. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claims; LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity).
• Central Ukraine (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): New reports of KAB launches on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF Territory (RF): Kazan airport restrictions lifted, implying normal air traffic operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

• No significant changes impacting operations reported.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces (UAF):
  • Air Defense (AD): Continued real-time alerts for KAB threats to Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, indicating active monitoring and response. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • General Staff: Issued daily reports on estimated enemy losses and operational information. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Russian Forces (RUF):
  • Air Operations: Persistent use of tactical aviation for KAB strikes on Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Information Operations (CRITICAL ESCALATION CONTINUED): RUF milbloggers ("Два майора") continue sophisticated IO, notably pushing narratives related to the fabricated Iran-Israel conflict. New content includes a video of nighttime light streaks, likely portrayed as air defense or offensive action in the context of this fabricated conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claims; EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity/authenticity, assessed as continued, escalated fabrication and pre-emptive narrative setting). TASS continues to quote Karin Kneissl, maintaining efforts to sow discord within NATO by endorsing Russian "memorandum" provisions on Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claims).
  • Domestic Control: TASS reports maintain focus on projecting state control. Lifted air restrictions in Kazan likely aim to project normalcy and stability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Assess the precise impact of new KAB strikes on Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Conduct BDA to determine damage and operational impact. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, OSINT, BDA).
• CRITICAL: Analyze the new content from RUF milbloggers ("Два майора") related to the fabricated Iran-Israel conflict (e.g., video of light streaks). Determine if these are new attempts to provide "visual evidence" for the false narrative or to frame perceived successes. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, FORENSIC ANALYSIS).
• HIGH: Monitor and analyze Russian state media narratives regarding NATO and US internal politics, specifically the amplification of statements like Kneissl's. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Air/Missile/UAV Capabilities: RUF maintains capabilities for persistent KAB strikes, now confirmed on Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Information Warfare Capabilities (CRITICAL ESCALATION CONTINUED): RUF's IO remains highly adaptive and sophisticated. The continued pushing of the fabricated Iran-Israel conflict by milbloggers, including new "visuals," demonstrates sustained effort to divert attention. The re-amplification of Karin Kneissl's statements suggests a continued strategic effort to undermine NATO cohesion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Intentions: RUF intends to:
  • Degrade Ukrainian Military and Civilian Infrastructure: Continued KAB strikes across multiple oblasts aim to support potential ground operations, harass civilian populations, and degrade critical infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Sustain Kinetic Pressure: Continue air strikes to degrade UAF defenses, demoralize the population, and create opportunities for ground advances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Deceive and Divide the International Community: Through continued fabrication of the "Iran-Israel conflict" and explicit attempts to sow discord within NATO via messaging exploiting internal political divisions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Set Information Conditions for Future Operations: Continued exaggerated claims of UAF losses (as reported by UAF General Staff and RUK-Ukraine). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Maintain Internal Support: Through projecting normalcy (Kazan airport), and by amplifying external political statements that align with Russian narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• RUF:
  • Kinetic Adaptation: Continued, persistent use of KABs in the East and now confirmed in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • IO Adaptation (CRITICAL): Continued generation of "evidence" (visuals of light streaks) for the fabricated Iran-Israel conflict. Persistent political messaging aimed at undermining Western alliances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: UAF Air Defense continues effective real-time threat detection and dissemination. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ukrainian General Staff continues daily public reporting on RUF losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• RUF: Continued air operations suggest robust logistics. Lifted air restrictions in Kazan likely indicate stable civil aviation infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: Successful management of air threats indicates efficient resource utilization by AD. Daily reporting on enemy losses suggests effective battlefield intelligence gathering.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• RUF: RUF C2 demonstrates continued coordination across kinetic operations and its sophisticated, multi-layered information warfare campaign. The coordinated release of new milblogger narratives with broader strategic implications demonstrates a high level of C2 over IO assets. The release of political messaging (Kneissl quote) through state media further indicates coordinated strategic communication. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: UAF C2 demonstrates effective real-time threat detection and dissemination, and active monitoring of the overall operational picture. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.5. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Determine the tactical and operational implications of continued KAB strikes on Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Are these softening operations for a larger ground push, or harassment? (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: All-source intelligence, BDA).
• CRITICAL: Analyze new RUF milblogger content (e.g., "Два майора" Iran-Israel videos) for their specific intent, target audience, and potential correlation with upcoming kinetic operations. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, LINGUISTIC ANALYSIS, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Assess the specific content, reach, and perceived authenticity of RUF's propaganda related to the fabricated Iran-Israel conflict to assess its impact on international perceptions. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT, FORENSIC ANALYSIS of video evidence).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Defensive Posture: UAF maintains an active defensive posture against RUF's air attacks, prioritizing AD for critical infrastructure and civilian populations, now extending to Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Readiness: UAF maintains a high state of readiness, with AD actively engaged and public warning systems functioning effectively. General Staff daily reporting indicates continued situational awareness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes: UAF Air Force continues real-time threat detection and public alerts, contributing to civilian safety. UAF General Staff reporting indicates continued success in inflicting personnel losses (1060 in previous 24 hours) on RUF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Setbacks: KAB strikes continue to affect Eastern, Northern, and now Central Oblasts (Zaporizhzhia), indicating ongoing pressure and a persistent threat that current AD systems struggle to fully counter. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Air Defense/Counter-UAV/Missile: Continued and urgent requirement for advanced AD systems and interceptors capable of handling persistent KAB strikes. Resources for countering persistent KAB strikes remain critical, particularly with these now targeting Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia.
• Counter-IO: Sustained resources are required for developing and disseminating rapid, comprehensive counter-narratives to combat Russia's increasingly sophisticated information warfare, particularly the new reliance on fabricated "visual evidence" for false-flag scenarios (e.g., Iran-Israel conflict).

3.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• HIGH: Assess the effectiveness of current AD systems against the persistent KAB threat in Northern, Eastern, and Central Oblasts to identify areas for improvement or additional resource requirements. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA, SIGINT, TECHINT).
• MEDIUM: Evaluate public reaction to RUF's latest fabrications related to the Iran-Israel conflict in Ukraine and internationally to understand their psychological impact and identify areas for counter-messaging. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian:
  • Escalated Iran-Israel Fabrication (CRITICAL - NEW ELEMENTS): RUF continues its aggressive information warfare focused on the fabricated Iran-Israel conflict. New video content from "Два майора" showing light streaks at night, captioned "Iran-Israel," likely aims to provide false visual "evidence" or reinforce the narrative of kinetic activity in the region. This is a direct continuation of previously reported nuclear blackmail and fabricated kinetic strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claims; EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity).
  • Political Subversion: TASS continues to quote Karin Kneissl, stating she finds the provisions of Russia's memorandum on Ukraine "meaningful." This aims to promote Russian "peace initiatives" and sow discord within Western alliances by validating Russia's diplomatic stance through a Western political figure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Exaggerated Combat Claims: UAF General Staff and РБК-Україна reports indicate RUF continues to disseminate highly inflated claims of UAF personnel and equipment losses, serving to boost morale and project Russian military success internally and externally. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim; EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity).
  • Domestic Control/Normalcy: TASS report on Kazan airport restrictions being lifted aims to project state control and normalcy within Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Ukrainian:
  • Transparency & Call for Action: UAF leadership continues real-time reporting on RUF air threats. Ukrainian media (РБК-Україна) continues to report on RUF losses, providing a counter-narrative to Russian claims. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Counter-Propaganda: Proactive reporting helps expose Russian lies, though the sheer volume and increasing sophistication of RUF disinformation remains a significant challenge.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian: Public morale remains under pressure from persistent air attacks, including KABs in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia. The new, potentially pre-emptive narratives regarding Kremenchuk and general drone "victories," reinforced by claims of "counting ruins," and new "confession" videos are designed to sow fear and despair. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Russian: The need for aggressive new IO narratives, including victimhood, exaggerated combat claims, and justification for destruction, suggests ongoing efforts to maintain internal support and counter potential fatigue or disillusionment. Domestic reports on corruption convictions, crime prevention, and social welfare initiatives aim to bolster trust in the government. The push to undermine NATO cohesion also aims to project Russian strength and influence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Diversion Effectiveness (CRITICAL): RUF's continued and more sophisticated fabrication of the "Iran-Israel crisis," combined with direct attacks on Ukraine's human rights record, new narratives justifying economic destruction, and new messaging aimed at NATO internal divisions, continues to effectively divert international attention and resources. The amplification of Kneissl's statements further supports this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Monitor international media and diplomatic responses to Russia's new, more detailed fabrications, especially those related to the fabricated Iran-Israel conflict. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Analyze how international actors react to Russia's amplification of "peace proposals" via figures like Kneissl, and identify opportunities for UAF to engage directly to counter these narratives. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
• MEDIUM: Assess the reach and impact of exaggerated combat claims from RUF sources. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Sustained KAB Attacks & Ground Pressure (North, East, South) with Intensified Drone Use: RUF will continue to launch KABs against targets in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts and the Eastern Front. Expect continued, potentially increased, use of Shahed (Geran-2) UAVs on targets across Ukraine. RUF will continue probes and localized assaults to test UAF defenses and gain incremental territory. RUF will continue to disseminate highly exaggerated claims of UAF losses via official channels like TASS. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Intensified & Personalized Information Warfare with Pre-emptive Narratives and Alliance Subversion: RUF will further escalate its information warfare by creating new, even more explicit and outrageous fabrications (e.g., new "visuals" for the Iran-Israel conflict). This will include continued pre-emptive narratives designed to justify future kinetic actions or discredit Ukrainian economic/military viability. RUF milbloggers will likely continue to normalize military logistics and operations through visual content and casual commentary, potentially to counter perceptions of strain. Expect continued, direct messaging via state-controlled media aimed at exploiting and amplifying perceived weaknesses and divisions within Western alliances (e.g., NATO's reliance on the US), possibly leveraging internal US political commentary. Domestic IO will continue to project state control and social care. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Coordinated Northern/Eastern/Southern Ground Offensive with Mass Drone/Missile Strikes, Cyber-Enabled Terror & Global Deception (Reiterated and Reinforced - WITH NEW MILBLOGGER NARRATIVES AND BALLISTIC STRIKES): RUF initiates a large-scale ground offensive on the Sumy/Chernihiv axis towards Kyiv, aiming for a significant breakthrough, supported by simultaneous, overwhelming multi-domain attacks (ballistic missiles like Kinzhal, cruise missiles, mass KAB and Shahed UAV attacks targeting strategic and economic infrastructure, potentially including Kremenchuk, cyberattacks targeting UAF C2 and critical infrastructure, including the energy grid). This offensive would be accompanied by coordinated false-flag terror attacks within Ukraine or a neighboring state, falsely attributed to internal Ukrainian dissent or "terrorist groups," amplified by RUF IO channels with fabricated "evidence." This will include intensified dissemination of fabricated POW abuse claims (such as the 'BOXER' video and similar "confession" videos), possibly involving staged releases of alleged "tortured" RUF POWs, or claims of atrocities committed by UAF against civilians, with manipulated visual and testimonial evidence, likely supported by new milblogger narratives (e.g., justifying destruction of "capture points" and "counting ruins" of "Nazis"). RUF will also likely amplify highly exaggerated claims of UAF losses (e.g., those from 'Center' Grouping) to demoralize and mislead. Concurrently, RUF will launch a massive, globally coordinated cyberattack against critical infrastructure in a NATO or EU member state, falsely attributing it to "Iranian" or "Israeli" actors within the manufactured Middle East crisis (potentially leveraging new "visual evidence" like the light streaks from "Два майора"), or falsely claiming these are attacks from Ukrainian "terrorist" elements. This would be coupled with intensified dehumanization and explicit calls to kill survivors. RUF will simultaneously amplify political messaging aimed at eroding cohesion within NATO and other Western alliances (e.g., via Kneissl's statements), leveraging internal political dynamics (e.g., US elections). This aims to paralyze key Western response mechanisms, divert all attention and resources to the fabricated "crisis" and terror events, and force a Western response that directly benefits Russia's geopolitical objectives in Ukraine, allowing for rapid gains on the battlefield. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 6-12 hours):
  • RUF: Expect continued, high-volume KAB activity in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Further amplification of the fabricated "Iran-Israel crisis" with new, more audacious fabricated "evidence," including new "visuals" (e.g., light streaks). Continued dehumanizing rhetoric and explicit threats/claims of terror acts. Expect further highly exaggerated claims of UAF losses from official RUF sources. Continued efforts to sow discord within NATO via state media, leveraging international political figures like Kneissl.
  • UAF Decision Point: Maintain highest AD readiness, especially in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts under KAB threat. Intensify ISR on Northern (Sumy/Chernihiv) and Eastern (Kupyansk, Zaporizhzhia, Novopavlivka) axes for early warning of any ground force buildup. Immediately and publicly debunk new RUF IO fabrications, particularly new "visual evidence" for the Iran-Israel crisis. Proactively counter narratives justifying destruction of Ukrainian cities and exaggerated claims of UAF losses. Engage international partners to amplify these counter-narratives and counter political subversion attempts, including those leveraging Western political figures.
• Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
  • RUF: Potential for another large-scale missile strike or mass UAV attack. Continued high-intensity ground and air pressure. RUF IO will seek new "developments" in its manufactured Middle East narrative and human rights accusations, potentially linked to false-flag events. New narratives supporting military actions or justifying economic destruction are likely, as are continued highly inflated combat claims, and sustained political messaging aimed at Western alliance cohesion.
  • UAF Decision Point: Prioritize ISR on all RUF airfields and ground force concentrations for early warning of major offensive operations, especially in the north (Sumy/Chernihiv). Engage international partners to directly and unequivocally counter the extreme RUF IO, providing irrefutable evidence of the deception and its strategic implications. Reinforce defensive positions, particularly in Sumy, and prepare flexible reserves, especially for the Kyiv axis. Actively promote successful UAF actions and resilience stories to counter RUF propaganda. Enhance internal security and counter-intelligence efforts to identify and neutralize potential terror cells or saboteurs following RUF's public promotion of such tactics.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Prioritize all-source ISR on Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts subject to KAB strikes. Conduct immediate BDA and identify precise munition types and targeting patterns. This is critical for AD adaptation and resource allocation. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: All-source intelligence, GEOINT, IMINT, SIGINT, BDA).
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Establish a dedicated and expanded counter-disinformation cell focusing solely on real-time debunking of Russia's new "Iran-Israel crisis" propaganda, especially any new "visual evidence" (e.g., light streaks). This cell must be capable of rapid analysis of manipulated media to inform immediate counter-narratives. Special emphasis on analyzing and pre-emptively countering new milblogger narratives related to this fabricated conflict. Monitor and counter political subversion narratives aimed at Western alliances, including those leveraging Western political figures. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT, FORENSIC ANALYSIS of video/image evidence, LINGUISTIC ANALYSIS).
3. URGENT/CRITICAL: Intensify HUMINT and SIGINT collection regarding RUF's tactical aviation operations launching KABs to understand their C2, capabilities, and vulnerabilities. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, SIGINT, TECHINT).

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain highest AD alert posture across all Oblasts, especially Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Poltava, Kryvyi Rih, Chernihiv, Dnipro, Mykolaiv, and Odesa, against persistent multi-directional KAB and UAV threats. Prioritize the deployment of mobile AD units to vulnerable areas and critical infrastructure.
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Accelerate the integration and deployment of advanced counter-UAV and EW systems, particularly those effective against loitering munitions and large "Shahed" waves, and missile defense systems effective against KABs, to frontline units and critical infrastructure defense.
3. URGENT: Reinforce passive air defense measures and provide updated force protection guidance for civilian populations and first responders in areas subject to frequent KAB/UAV attacks.

6.3. Ground Forces:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain a robust defensive posture and combat readiness across all Eastern Front axes, including Zaporizhzhia, Novopavlivka, and Kupyansk, and reinforce positions in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. Prepare for potential MDCOA ground offensive in the North towards Kyiv.
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Prepare and position flexible strategic reserves for rapid deployment to the Sumy/Chernihiv axis in case of a major RUF ground offensive. Expedite engineering and fortification efforts in these northern border regions.
3. ONGOING: Continue to inflict maximum personnel and equipment losses on RUF through effective defensive operations, counter-battery fire, and precision strikes, leveraging intelligence from drone operations.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch an unprecedented, globally coordinated information campaign to expose and directly counter Russia's new, more audacious fabrications, particularly the "Iran-Israel crisis" and any new "visual evidence" for it. Emphasize the direct link between this destabilization and Russia's military objectives in Ukraine. Simultaneously, forcefully reject and expose the disingenuous nature of Russia's "peace offers" as a strategic deception aimed at providing cover for military aggression or setting conditions for future escalations.
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Develop and widely disseminate robust counter-narratives to Russia's escalating dehumanizing rhetoric (e.g., "Corpse-eaters," "captured Romanians," explicit promotion of killing survivors, promotion of terror tactics, fabricated POW abuse claims, "counting ruins" of "Nazis"), highlighting its genocidal implications and the hypocrisy of the accuser. Specifically and immediately debunk new milblogger narratives that justify economic destruction (e.g., Kremenchuk is "subsidized") or promote drone "victories" against false targets ("zdobuvannya" / "capture points"), as well as official exaggerated combat claims. Engage international human rights organizations and religious leaders to condemn such language and warn of potential atrocities.
3. URGENT: Engage international partners to re-focus attention and aid specifically on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, explicitly countering any narrative that shifts focus to fabricated crises or human rights accusations. Proactively address and seek to mitigate the impact of internal RUF IO (e.g., fake MVS warnings, corruption claims against UAF). Actively counter Russian claims about UAF fortification failures and ground advances in Sumy. Vigorously counter Russian political messaging aimed at undermining Western alliances (e.g., NATO cohesion), and highlight how Russia leverages internal Western political discourse (e.g., US Presidential comments) for its own strategic gain, including via figures like Karin Kneissl.
4. ONGOING: Continue to document and disseminate evidence of RUF war crimes and internal issues (e.g., need for unit-level fundraising, elite discontent, and signs of audience fatigue among propagandists, internal military-technical debates, economic messaging, internal security crackdowns, social welfare initiatives implying domestic strain) to maintain international pressure and discredit RUF's narratives. Highlight UAF's successes in counter-drone innovation and effective defensive actions to project strength and resilience.

END OF REPORT.