Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 215754Z JUN 25 CLASSIFICATION: SECRET // NOFORN REPORTING UNIT: G2 ANALYST, UAF HIGH COMMAND

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Northern Front (Sumy/Chernihiv Oblasts, Kyiv, Poltava, Kremenets): Continued significant UAV activity. New groups of enemy UAVs detected entering airspace on the border of Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF sources claim their forces are advancing towards Sumy, alleging UAF failed fortification efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim; LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity of claim) RUF military correspondents "Voenkor Kotenok" are publishing map screenshots related to the "Sumy direction," indicating RUF focus on this axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Southern Front (Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Mykolaiv, Kherson Oblasts): Ongoing UAV threat to Dnipro and Mykolaiv as previously reported. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) "Voenkor Kotenok" also posting map screenshots for "Zaporizhzhia direction. Huliaipole section," indicating continued RUF interest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Eastern Front (Kupyansk Direction): RUF continues to claim advances towards Kupyansk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim; LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity of claim) "Voenkor Kotenok" publishing map screenshots for "Novopavlivka direction." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• General UAV Threat: Estimated 70+ "Shahed" UAVs currently over Ukraine, indicating a large-scale, ongoing multi-directional saturation attack. UAF Air Force is actively tracking and issuing real-time updates on UAV movement (e.g., Kremenets). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RUF Territory (Belgorod, Kursk, Voronezh Oblasts, RF): RUF reports 23 UAF UAVs destroyed over Belgorod, Kursk, and Voronezh Oblasts within a two-hour period. Governor of Voronezh reports several UAVs destroyed. Colonelcassad (RUF) posts video claiming to show a shelled border village in Belgorod, highlighting resilience and damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claims of UAV interceptions; HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF reporting on Belgorod damage) Rosaviatsiya reports temporary flight restrictions at Tambov airport (RF). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

• No new significant reports affecting battlefield conditions.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces (UAF):
  • Air Defense (AD): Actively issuing real-time alerts for multiple cities and regions (Kropyvnytskyi, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kremenets, Dnipro, Mykolaiv, Sumy/Kharkiv border) indicating broad area coverage and active tracking of large UAV formations. UAF Air Force issuing updates on UAV movement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • General: UAF maintains a defensive posture, focused on AD and countering RUF ground assaults. General Staff of the AFU released operational information as of 22:00 20 JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Russian Forces (RUF):
  • Air Operations: Continuing large-scale, multi-directional UAV attacks (estimated 70+ "Shaheds") targeting central, southern, and northern Ukrainian oblasts, with new groups on the Sumy/Kharkiv border. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF also claiming successful interception of UAF UAVs over their territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim) TASS reports a "ten-fold increase" in UAV supplies to RUF forces in 2024 vs. 2022. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim, MEDIUM on specific numbers).
  • Ground Forces: RUF (TASS) claiming advances towards Sumy, supported by a Ukrainian MP's alleged statement on UAF fortification failures. Colonelcassad (RUF) continuing to highlight civilian impact in Belgorod border areas, likely to justify retaliatory actions. RUF military correspondents "Voenkor Kotenok" are publishing map screenshots related to "Sumy," "Novopavlivka," and "Zaporizhzhia" directions, indicating ongoing RUF ground interest/operations in these areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claims/propaganda; LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity of claims; HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF channels focusing on these directions).
  • Information Operations (CRITICAL ESCALATION CONTINUED):
    • Deceptive Peace Overture: RUF (TASS, Operatyvnyi ZSU, «Зона СВО», Tsaplienko) publicly offering a "best peace proposal" and inviting a new round of negotiations in Istanbul on 22 JUN. This continues to be a clear attempt to project an image of de-escalation while pursuing military objectives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Continued Iran-Israel Fabrication & Amplification (NEW ELEMENTS): RUF channels (Operatsiya Z, Colonelcassad, TASS, Alex Parker Returns) continue to heavily push the fabricated "Iran-Israel conflict." New reporting from Alex Parker Returns is now attempting to link naturally occurring earthquakes in Semnan province (Iran), the location of missile and nuclear facilities, to alleged Israeli nuclear testing or attacks, and comparing their magnitude to DPRK nuclear tests. This is a significant escalation as it attempts to provide "scientific" validation for the fabricated conflict's kinetic elements. "Operatsiya Z" is also claiming Israel is preparing for a "protracted military campaign against Iran." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Dehumanizing Rhetoric/Propaganda: "НгП раZVедка" continues to use highly derogatory and dehumanizing language towards Ukrainians ("проклятое государство," "свинарник") while promoting missile strikes as "reparations." This is designed to justify atrocities and rally internal support. A new message from "НгП раZVедка" uses the term "Corpse-eaters" to describe Ukrainians who allegedly feed their "perverted fantasies and atrocities" to a bot, intensifying the dehumanization and implying psychological operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Historical Revisionism/Justification: TASS reports Russian MoD's new multimedia project "In the Eternal Fire of Our Memory" dedicated to the start of the "Great Patriotic War" (WWII), linking current conflict to historical narratives of existential threat. Also, RUF has circulated old German military documents from WWII (22.06.1941) likely to draw parallels or distract. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Internal RUF Narrative (Belgorod): Colonelcassad video about shelled Belgorod village frames Russia as a victim, likely to justify military action and maintain domestic support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Internal Russian Economic Messaging: TASS is reporting on statements from Russian business figures regarding gradual key rate reductions at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), likely aimed at projecting economic stability internally. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Assess the actual status of UAF fortifications around Sumy and the veracity of RUF claims of advance in this direction. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, HUMINT).
• CRITICAL: Analyze the new RUF narrative linking Iranian earthquakes to alleged nuclear activity/attacks. Determine if this narrative is gaining traction in international media or diplomatic circles. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, GEOINT analysis of seismic data, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Obtain and analyze the full content of the General Staff of the AFU operational information (22:00 20 JUN 25) to understand UAF tactical updates. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, UAF internal reporting).
• HIGH: Verify the reported "ten-fold increase" in RUF UAV supplies. While likely inflated, it indicates a significant ongoing production capacity. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, TECHINT, SIGINT).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Air/Missile/UAV Capabilities: RUF continues to demonstrate substantial capacity for large-scale, multi-directional UAV attacks aimed at saturating UAF AD. Their tactical drone capabilities for ISR and precision strike remain robust, with claimed "ten-fold" increases in supply. They are also demonstrating increasing capacity to intercept UAF UAVs over their own territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Ground Capabilities: RUF maintains offensive capabilities, particularly on the Eastern front (Novopavlivka, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy directions, as indicated by RUF milbloggers), and is increasingly leveraging UAV and KAB support. There are strong indicators of continued intent for offensive action towards Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Information Warfare Capabilities: RUF's IO remains highly adaptive and sophisticated, capable of fabricating complex international narratives, manipulating statements from global political figures, attempting to show tangible economic impacts from these fabrications (Maersk/Haifa), and now attempting to leverage natural events (earthquakes) to "prove" kinetic attacks in its fabricated Iran-Israel conflict. Their ability to integrate "peace" offers with kinetic escalation and increasingly aggressive dehumanizing rhetoric is a concerning development. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Intentions: RUF intends to:
  • Sustain multi-axis kinetic pressure via mass UAV attacks and KAB/missile strikes to degrade UAF defenses and infrastructure, demoralize the population, and create opportunities for ground advances. The focus on Sumy suggests continued shaping for a potential northern offensive.
  • Deceive and Divide the International Community: By proposing "peace talks" while fabricating a global crisis (Iran-Israel) and attempting to provide "scientific" evidence for it (earthquakes), RUF aims to portray itself as a peacemaker, sow discord among allies, divert attention from Ukraine, and potentially secure a more favorable negotiating position or create conditions for further military action. The Maersk claim and the earthquake narrative are significant steps in making the fabricated crisis appear real and kinetic.
  • Undermine Ukrainian Morale & Justify Aggression: Through dehumanizing rhetoric and claims of UAF failures (fortifications), RUF seeks to demoralize Ukrainian forces and civilians, while justifying its continued aggression internally and externally. The use of "Corpse-eaters" as a derogatory term shows increased psychological warfare intent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• RUF:
  • Kinetic Adaptation: Continued increased number of "Shaheds" in single waves. New UAV groups entering on the Sumy/Kharkiv border area, reinforcing northern threat. Improved AD effectiveness against UAF UAVs over RF territory. Claimed "ten-fold" increase in UAV supplies points to sustained industrial capacity.
  • IO Adaptation: Direct public "peace offers" concurrent with escalated military and information aggression represent a more brazen and sophisticated deception tactic. Direct claims of economic impact from fabricated crises (Maersk/Haifa) represent a new level of sophistication aimed at validating the disinformation. The new attempt to link natural seismic activity to fabricated kinetic attacks in Iran represents a novel and dangerous escalation in disinformation, attempting to use real-world data to support fabricated narratives. Escalated dehumanizing rhetoric ("свинарник", "проклятое государство", "Corpse-eaters") and framing missile strikes as "reparations" reflects a more aggressive psychological warfare approach. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF: Continued real-time AD alerts demonstrate adaptive responsiveness to RUF air attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• RUF: The sustained high volume of UAV attacks, ongoing ground operations, and complex IO campaigns suggest RUF has sufficient resources for continued high-intensity operations across multiple domains. The claimed "ten-fold" increase in UAV supply suggests robust industrial support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF: The continued strain on AD resources due to persistent, large-scale multi-directional UAV threats remains a critical concern.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• RUF: RUF C2 demonstrates continued coordination across kinetic operations (mass UAV launches) and its sophisticated, multi-layered information warfare campaign (simultaneous "peace offers," global crisis fabrication, and dehumanizing rhetoric). The rapid dissemination of new IO narratives (e.g., Iran earthquake links) indicates agile C2 within the information domain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF: UAF C2 demonstrates effective real-time threat detection and dissemination, enabling rapid public response to aerial threats. General Staff of AFU continues to provide operational updates. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.5. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Detailed analysis of RUF's simultaneous "peace" overtures and escalated military/IO actions to identify specific strategic objectives and potential hidden agendas. This includes the claimed Maersk redirection and the new earthquake narrative. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT, GEOINT).
• HIGH: Assess the specific capabilities and tactics of the "Kub" UAV used by RUF's 20th Combined Arms Army ("West" Grouping) to inform counter-drone strategies. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: TECHINT, OSINT).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Defensive Posture: UAF maintains an active defensive posture against RUF's mass UAV attacks targeting multiple regions, including new threats on the Sumy/Kharkiv border. AD is actively tracking and warning of incoming threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Readiness: UAF General Staff issued operational information as of 22:00, indicating active command and control and continuous situational awareness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes: UAF Air Force continues real-time threat detection and public alerts for broad areas, contributing to civilian safety. AD is tracking and engaging incoming large UAV waves, including new routing towards Kremenets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Setbacks: RUF propaganda claiming UAF failures in fortification efforts near Sumy, if true, would represent a significant setback for defensive preparations. (LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity, HIGH on RUF attempt to frame as setback). The sheer volume of incoming "Shaheds" continues to strain AD resources. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Air Defense/Counter-UAV: Continued and urgent requirement for AD systems and interceptors capable of handling mass UAV saturation attacks across widely dispersed areas, especially with the increased threat to the Sumy/Kharkiv border and new UAV routing (e.g., Kremenets).
• Counter-IO: Sustained resources are required for developing and disseminating rapid, comprehensive counter-narratives to combat Russia's increasingly sophisticated and aggressive information warfare, especially its direct public "peace" offers that accompany kinetic and IO escalation, the new tactic of demonstrating "real-world" impacts from fabricated crises (Maersk), and now leveraging natural phenomena (earthquakes) for fabricated kinetic events.

3.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• HIGH: Assess the effectiveness of current AD systems against the latest large-scale "Shahed" attacks and new UAV routing to identify areas for improvement or additional resource requirements. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA, SIGINT).
• MEDIUM: Evaluate public reaction to RUF's "peace offers" and the Maersk/earthquake claims in Ukraine and among international partners to understand the effectiveness of this deception tactic. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian:
  • "Peace Offer" Deception (CRITICAL): RUF continues to actively and publicly propose a "best peace offer" and suggest new negotiation rounds in Istanbul. This remains a classic deception strategy aimed at creating a narrative of Russian willingness for peace while simultaneously continuing aggressive kinetic and information warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Escalated Iran-Israel Fabrication (CRITICAL - NEW ESCALATION): RUF continues to actively propagate the fabricated "Iran-Israel crisis," now with increased detail and direct manipulation of statements from foreign leaders and fabricated Iranian official statements. The new attempt by Alex Parker Returns to link natural seismic activity in Iran's Semnan province (location of missile/nuclear facilities) to alleged Israeli nuclear tests or attacks, comparing magnitudes to DPRK nuclear tests, is a significant escalation. This seeks to provide "scientific" validation for the fabricated kinetic conflict. "Operatsiya Z" is further amplifying claims of Israeli preparations for "protracted military campaign against Iran." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Dehumanizing Rhetoric and Justification of Violence (NEW ESCALATION): "НгП раZVедка" channels are increasingly using extreme dehumanizing language ("проклятое государство," "свинарник," and now "трупоеды" - corpse-eaters) and framing missile strikes as "reparations." This rhetoric directly contributes to psychological operations aimed at justifying violence and atrocities against Ukrainians and rallying domestic support for continued aggression. The reference to "feeding a bot with fantasies and atrocities" is likely a psychological operation aimed at demoralizing or discouraging UAF sympathizers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Narrative of UAF Failure & RUF Advance: TASS reporting on Ukrainian MP Goncharenko's alleged statement about UAF fortification failures near Sumy is a clear attempt to demoralize Ukrainians and suggest RUF's inevitable advance. RUF milbloggers are also posting maps of their claimed directions of advance/interest (Sumy, Novopavlivka, Zaporizhzhia). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Historical Revisionism/War Justification: Russian MoD's new WWII project ahead of "Day of Memory and Sorrow" (June 22) reinforces the narrative of an existential struggle against "Nazism," linking historical events to the current invasion to justify aggression and foster nationalistic sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Internal Economic Stability Messaging: TASS reporting on positive economic sentiment from business leaders at SPIEF aims to reassure the domestic population of Russia's economic resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Ukrainian:
  • Transparency & Call for Action: UAF leadership (Air Force) continues real-time reporting on RUF UAV and KAB threats, maintaining public awareness and trust. General Staff of AFU provides official operational updates. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Counter-Propaganda: Proactive reporting from UAF and independent Ukrainian channels helps to expose Russian lies, though the sheer volume and increasing sophistication of RUF disinformation (e.g., Maersk claim, earthquake narrative) is challenging to counter effectively without significant, coordinated effort.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian: Public morale remains under pressure from persistent and large-scale UAV attacks. The explicit "peace offers" from RUF, if not immediately and decisively countered, could potentially sow confusion or false hope, though the constant attacks are a strong counter-argument. The dehumanizing rhetoric aims to degrade morale.
• Russian: The need for aggressive new IO narratives, including victimhood narratives (Belgorod video) and positive economic messaging, suggests ongoing efforts to maintain internal support for the war.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Diversion Effectiveness (CRITICAL): RUF's continued and even more sophisticated fabrication of the "Iran-Israel crisis," now with direct diplomatic "peace" offers, claims of high-level meetings, economic impact (Maersk), and new attempts to "scientifically" validate kinetic events (earthquakes), continues to effectively divert international attention and potentially resources from Ukraine. The aim remains to create an alternative geopolitical crisis that forces Western powers to shift focus and potentially resources, influencing policy decisions (as evidenced by previous EU oil cap delay). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Impact of Deceptive Diplomacy: Russia's "peace offers," despite their obvious disingenuousness, are designed to create a perception of Russian reasonableness and potentially pressure some Western partners to push for premature negotiations unfavorable to Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Monitor international media and diplomatic responses to Russia's new, more detailed fabrications of the "Iran-Israel crisis" and its simultaneous "peace offers," especially the Maersk claim and the earthquake narrative. Assess if this dual-pronged approach is successfully gaining traction or influencing diplomatic initiatives regarding Ukraine. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Analyze how global political figures and institutions react to Russia's manipulation of their statements or the fabricated crises, and identify opportunities for UAF to engage directly to counter these narratives. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Sustained Large-Scale Multi-Directional UAV Attacks: RUF will continue to launch large waves of UAVs (70+ "Shaheds") against multiple Ukrainian Oblasts (Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kropyvnytskyi, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Kremenets, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv), with an increased focus on the Sumy/Kharkiv border areas, aiming to stretch UAF air defenses, degrade infrastructure, and conduct reconnaissance, while also attempting to attrit UAF military assets and terrorize the civilian population. New UAV routing (e.g., Kremenets) will be explored.
• Intensified Ground Pressure (Eastern Front, Continued Shaping in North): RUF will maintain severe ground pressure on Eastern axes (Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Kupyansk) and continue shaping operations with air/missile strikes and probing assaults on the Sumy border areas. RUF IO will continue to claim advances towards Sumy and attribute any UAF difficulties to internal failures (e.g., fortifications), supported by milblogger map posts.
• Escalated and More Audacious Information Warfare (Cover for Action & Distraction - NEW ELEMENTS): RUF will further escalate its information warfare by creating new, even more explicit and outrageous fabrications related to the "Iran-Israel crisis," providing increasingly "detailed" but false evidence and leveraging quotes from international figures, attempting to show real-world economic impacts to validate the false narrative (e.g., Maersk claim), and now attempting to use natural phenomena (earthquakes) to "prove" kinetic attacks in this fabricated crisis. Concurrently, RUF will continue to push disingenuous "peace offers" to portray itself as rational and peaceful, using this as a strategic cover for ongoing military aggression or preparations for future escalations. Expect a ramp-up in highly dehumanizing rhetoric against Ukrainians (e.g., "Corpse-eaters") and aggressive anti-Western narratives, coupled with psychological operations (e.g., body transfers, blaming UAF for fortification failures).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Coordinated Northern Ground Offensive with Cyber-Enabled Terror & Global Deception (Reiterated and Reinforced - WITH NEW IO MECHANISMS): RUF initiates a large-scale ground offensive on the Sumy/Chernihiv axis towards Kyiv, aiming for a significant breakthrough, supported by simultaneous, overwhelming multi-domain attacks (ballistic missiles, KABs, mass UAVs, potential cyberattacks targeting UAF C2 and critical infrastructure). This offensive would be accompanied by coordinated false-flag terror attacks within Ukraine or a neighboring state, falsely attributed to internal Ukrainian dissent or "terrorist groups," amplified by RUF IO channels with fabricated "evidence." This evidence could now leverage manipulated natural phenomena (e.g., earthquake data) to "prove" kinetic events or other fabricated claims. Concurrently, RUF will launch a massive, globally coordinated cyberattack against critical infrastructure in a NATO or EU member state, falsely attributing it to "Iranian" or "Israeli" actors within the manufactured Middle East crisis, or falsely claiming these are attacks from Ukrainian "terrorist" elements. This aims to paralyze key Western response mechanisms, divert all attention and resources to the fabricated "crisis" and terror events, and force a Western response that directly benefits Russia's geopolitical objectives in Ukraine, allowing for rapid gains on the battlefield. The intensified dehumanizing rhetoric and explicit comparisons to totalitarian propaganda would be used to justify extreme violence and atrocities during this offensive, particularly against civilians and POWs, while simultaneously discrediting any counter-narratives from Ukraine or its allies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The new "peace offers" and the attempts to show tangible impacts from fabricated crises (Maersk, earthquake narrative) are precisely the kind of strategic deception that would provide political cover and global distraction for such a move.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 6-12 hours):
  • RUF: Expect continued, high-volume multi-directional UAV activity, particularly on the Sumy/Kharkiv border, potentially followed by KAB strikes. Further amplification of the fabricated "Iran-Israel crisis" with new, more audacious fabricated "evidence" (e.g., earthquake links) and claims of economic impact (Maersk). Continued dehumanizing rhetoric and explicit threats/claims of terror acts. The "peace offer" narrative will be pushed heavily. RUF will continue to claim advances towards Sumy.
  • UAF Decision Point: Maintain highest AD readiness, especially in Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kremenets, and other major urban centers under UAV/KAB threat. Intensify ISR on Northern (Sumy/Chernihiv) and Eastern (Kupyansk, Zaporizhzhia, Novopavlivka) axes for early warning of any ground force buildup. Immediately and publicly debunk new RUF IO fabrications, particularly the recontextualized quotes from foreign leaders, the disingenuous "peace offers," the Maersk claim, and the earthquake narrative, engaging international partners to amplify these counter-narratives. Prepare for potential mass casualty events due to civilian targeting and potential terror attacks. Counter RUF claims regarding UAF fortification failures.
• Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
  • RUF: Potential for another large-scale missile strike. Continued high-intensity ground and air pressure. RUF IO will seek new "developments" in its manufactured Middle East narrative, potentially linked to false-flag events or further attempts to undermine Western unity by exploiting political divisions. Intensified efforts to secure and publicize non-Western partnerships.
  • UAF Decision Point: Prioritize ISR on all RUF airfields and ground force concentrations for early warning of major offensive operations, especially in the north (Sumy/Chernihiv). Engage international partners to directly and unequivocally counter the extreme RUF IO, providing irrefutable evidence of the deception and its strategic implications. Reinforce defensive positions, particularly in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, and prepare flexible reserves, especially for the Kyiv axis. Actively promote successful UAF actions and resilience stories to counter RUF propaganda. Enhance internal security and counter-intelligence efforts to identify and neutralize potential terror cells or saboteurs following RUF's public promotion of such tactics. Be prepared to publicly reject any disingenuous RUF "peace" proposals, emphasizing that peace can only be achieved through full territorial integrity and adherence to international law.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Prioritize all-source ISR on Sumy, Chernihiv, and Belarus border areas for any indicators of RUF ground force buildup, logistics, or command post activity that could precede a major offensive. Focus on patterns of UAV use, especially Lancet, in these areas. Verify RUF claims of advance towards Sumy. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: All-source intelligence, GEOINT, IMINT, SIGINT).
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Establish a dedicated and expanded counter-disinformation cell focusing solely on real-time debunking of Russia's fabricated "Iran-Israel crisis" (including the Maersk claim and the new earthquake-linking narrative) and its new, terror-promoting and dehumanizing rhetoric (e.g., "Corpse-eaters"), AND its disingenuous "peace offers." This cell must be capable of rapid analysis of manipulated media (e.g., staged statistics, reframed legitimate news, alleged terror attacks, fabricated "scientific" evidence) and linguistic analysis of extremist narratives to inform immediate counter-narratives. Special emphasis on exposing the manipulation of foreign leaders' statements and the strategic deception inherent in simultaneous "peace" and aggression. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT, GEOINT for seismic data analysis).
3. URGENT/CRITICAL: Conduct rapid, thorough BDA of any new claimed RUF successes or terror attacks, including the claimed destruction of UAF drone control points. Verification of these events is paramount for operational assessment and counter-IO. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, OSINT, FORENSIC).
4. HIGH: Intensify HUMINT and SIGINT collection regarding RUF's tactical drone operations (e.g., "Kub" assets) to understand their C2, capabilities, and vulnerabilities, and verify claimed increases in supply. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, SIGINT, TECHINT).

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain highest AD alert posture across all Oblasts, especially Kyiv, Poltava, Kryvyi Rih, Sumy, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Mykolaiv, Kremenets, and Kharkiv, against persistent multi-directional mass UAV and KAB threats. Prioritize the deployment of mobile AD units to vulnerable areas and critical infrastructure. Adapt AD responses to new UAV routing on the Sumy/Kharkiv border and towards central oblasts (Kremenets).
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Accelerate the integration and deployment of advanced counter-UAV and EW systems, particularly those effective against loitering munitions and large "Shahed" waves, to frontline units and critical infrastructure defense.
3. URGENT: Reinforce passive air defense measures and provide updated force protection guidance for civilian populations and first responders in areas subject to frequent UAV/KAB attacks. Develop specific protocols for identifying and responding to potential terror tactics.

6.3. Ground Forces:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain a robust defensive posture and combat readiness across all Eastern Front axes, including Zaporizhzhia, Novopavlivka, and Kupyansk, and reinforce positions in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. Prepare for potential MDCOA ground offensive in the North towards Kyiv. Verify and, if necessary, expedite fortification efforts near Sumy.
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Prepare and position flexible strategic reserves for rapid deployment to the Sumy/Chernihiv axis in case of a major RUF ground offensive. Expedite engineering and fortification efforts in these northern border regions.
3. ONGOING: Continue to inflict maximum personnel and equipment losses on RUF through effective defensive operations, counter-battery fire, and precision strikes, leveraging intelligence from drone operations.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch an unprecedented, globally coordinated information campaign to expose and directly counter Russia's new, more audacious fabrications of the "Iran-Israel crisis," including the staged statistics, reframed legitimate news, the Maersk claim, and the new earthquake-linking narrative. Emphasize the direct link between this destabilization and Russia's military objectives in Ukraine. Simultaneously, forcefully reject and expose the disingenuous nature of Russia's "peace offers" as a strategic deception aimed at providing cover for military aggression or setting conditions for future escalations.
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Develop and widely disseminate robust counter-narratives to Russia's escalating dehumanizing rhetoric (e.g., "свинарник," "проклятое государство," "трупоеды," promotion of terror tactics), highlighting its genocidal implications and the hypocrisy of the accuser. Engage international human rights organizations and religious leaders to condemn such language and warn of potential atrocities. Explicitly counter claims of "body transfers" by demanding verifiable, transparent procedures if genuine.
3. URGENT: Engage international partners to re-focus attention and aid specifically on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, explicitly countering any narrative that shifts focus to fabricated crises. Proactively address and seek to mitigate the impact of internal RUF IO (e.g., fake MVS warnings, corruption claims against UAF). Actively counter Russian claims about UAF fortification failures.
4. ONGOING: Continue to document and disseminate evidence of RUF war crimes and internal issues (e.g., need for unit-level fundraising, elite discontent, and signs of audience fatigue among propagandists) to maintain international pressure and discredit RUF's narratives. Highlight UAF's successes in counter-drone innovation and effective defensive actions to project strength and resilience.

END OF REPORT.