Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 201757Z JUN 25 CLASSIFICATION: SECRET // NOFORN REPORTING UNIT: G2 ANALYST, UAF HIGH COMMAND

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Northern Front (Sumy): Sustained RUF air and missile activity continues. Confirmed active drone movement in Sumy Oblast, with multiple groups detected moving SW. Zelenskiy confirms UAF is containing RUF's "absolutely crazy" plans for Sumy. Video from "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" purports to show results of RUF "meat assaults" in Sumy Oblast with RUF casualties, indicating ongoing ground engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Southern Front (Odesa/Kherson/Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk): New alert for RUF UAVs in southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading north, indicating continued drone threat in the south-eastern direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Eastern Front (Donetsk): WarGonzo reports "⚡️Спецрепортаж WG⚡️На штурм без крыши: к Покровску на автопроме «Сомали»⚡️" indicating RUF continues ground assaults with adapted vehicles towards Pokrovsk. A video from "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" purports to show activity in "Konstantinovka direction. Yablonovka," but content is unclear without viewing. UAF is engaged in fierce defense against RUF assaults, as highlighted by "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" showing a destroyed RUF assault column two days prior on the Kostyantynivka direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

• No new significant reports affecting battlefield conditions.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces (UAF):
  • Air Defense (AD): Responding to new RUF UAV threats in Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy Oblasts. Zelenskiy explicitly states UAF is "working on interceptor drones, which should increase protection against 'Shaheds'," indicating a focus on active counter-UAV measures and domestic production. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Drone Operations: UAF continues to prioritize and adapt its drone capabilities, as evidenced by the formal creation of the Grouping of Forces of Unmanned Systems. Successful counter-drone measures are being explored, with a Ukrainian company winning a JATEC hackathon for countering fiber optic-controlled FPV drones, signifying ongoing innovation and Western support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ground Forces (Sumy): UAF units are actively engaged in defending Sumy Oblast, repelling RUF "meat assaults" as evidenced by drone footage showing RUF casualties. Zelenskiy confirms UAF's "steadfastness" and containment of "absolutely crazy" RUF plans for Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ground Forces (Eastern): UAF successfully destroyed a RUF assault column two days prior on the Kostyantynivka direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Internal Security/Governance: "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" highlights the importance of procuring equipment from "verified sellers," even if slightly more expensive, to ensure quality and avoid issues like the recent moped incident. This indicates UAF is taking steps to address internal procurement and security risks. Successful POW exchange with Russia, verified by video from MoD RF (Colonelcassad 17:32:44Z) and a UAF statement from Oleg Syniehubov confirming "Our warriors are home!", significantly boosts morale and validates UAF efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Morale/Commemoration: Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports rapid fundraising, indicating strong public support. Oleg Syniehubov's report on returning POWs (17:47:02Z) serves as a morale boost. WarGonzo's photo message on "front-line mail" for RUF soldiers attempting to show morale also highlights the continued importance of communication for all forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Logistics: The message from "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" regarding verified sellers highlights UAF's efforts to ensure reliable equipment supply, which is a critical logistical aspect. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Russian Forces (RUF):
  • Air Operations: MoD Russia releases video showcasing S-300V SAM systems, claiming they intercept UAF UAVs, MLRS rockets, and aerial bombs, implying robust air defense capabilities against UAF strikes. New alerts from UAF Air Force confirm RUF UAVs active in southern Dnipropetrovsk and multiple groups in eastern Sumy, moving SW, indicating continued and adapting air operations. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 4 Il-76 aircraft delivered Kh-101 missiles to "Engels-2" for Tu-95MS and Tu-160 bombers, signaling preparation for a new large-scale missile attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ground Operations: RUF continues ground assaults towards Pokrovsk (WarGonzo report 17:42:06Z). Video from "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" on "Konstantinovka direction. Yablonovka" (17:52:32Z) suggests continued RUF ground activity in that area, but content is unclear. A graphic from "Старше Эдды" (17:42:01Z) titled "Точки сосредоточения усилий.." indicates RUF planning or intent for concentrated efforts, likely ground operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Logistics/Personnel (Internal): Colonelcassad publishes a video from MoD RF showing Russian soldiers returning from Ukrainian-controlled territory, emphasizing a successful POW exchange. TASS reports Medinsky claiming ~3,000 Ukrainian bodies are ready for transfer to Ukraine. This is likely a propaganda effort to pressure Ukraine and highlight UAF losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Diplomatic/Economic (Internal): TASS reports Putin's interview with Sky News Arabia following SPIEF (17:41:01Z), indicating continued efforts to engage non-Western media and project influence. TASS also reports Putin's meeting with the Deputy Premier of China (17:47:58Z), further highlighting Russia's efforts to strengthen ties with China. TASS emphasizes Russian-Chinese relations as a "powerful factor of stability in the world" (17:56:05Z), promoting a narrative of a rising multi-polar world. WarGonzo uses photos of "front-line mail" to foster a sense of normalcy and morale among RUF soldiers. "Военкор Котенок" reports an agreement with Afghanistan for "thousand valuable specialists" to be sent to Russia, suggesting a new source of labor/expertise to circumvent sanctions or fill shortages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Information Operations (CRITICAL ESCALATION CONTINUED):
    • Extreme Diversion (CRITICAL ESCALATION CONTINUED): The fabricated "Iran-Israel crisis" continues to be amplified. Kotsnews (17:34:16Z) reports 39% of their subscribers believe the US is preparing a strike on Iran, demonstrating the effectiveness of the narrative. "Операция Z" (17:51:47Z) further amplifies a report from Al Arabiya on Trump holding a national security meeting on Iran. Alex Parker Returns (17:52:46Z) reports on EU proposals to Iran regarding nuclear weapons and proxies, with sarcastic commentary, indicating continued attempts to frame Iran in a negative light while dismissing Western diplomatic efforts. This shows continued RUF efforts to influence Western policy and public opinion, linking it to the US political landscape. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Domestic & War Justification: Putin's statements at SPIEF, amplified by Igor Artamonov (17:37:48Z) emphasizing economic growth, low unemployment, and a new growth model, are designed to project domestic stability and resilience despite the war. TASS reports Putin's meeting with the Chinese Deputy Premier and his statement on Russian-Chinese relations as a "powerful factor of stability" (17:56:05Z) promotes a narrative of a strong, alternative geopolitical bloc. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Anti-Western/Anti-US Messaging: "Два майора" (17:53:07Z) reports on planned anti-Trump rallies in the US with Ukrainian diaspora participation, attempting to portray internal Western divisions and link Ukraine to them. Alex Parker Returns (17:49:15Z) continues to propagate narratives about Israel's actions and justifications for war, aligning with broader anti-Western/anti-Israeli sentiment. Alex Parker Returns (17:42:47Z) raises questions about the Armenian genocide, likely to stir controversy and undermine Western historical narratives. TASS's reporting on "labubu" dolls with faces of Peskov, Nabiullina, and Lavrov (17:31:01Z) is a bizarre but likely intentional attempt to normalize and humanize Russian officials, or potentially mock Western consumerism by making their officials a 'commodity'. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Psychological Operations: "Два майора" shares images of a damaged building in Belgorod Oblast (17:34:06Z), attributing it to Ukrainian shelling, aimed at fostering domestic fear and anger. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Immediate BDA for the purported RUF casualties in Sumy Oblast shown in "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" video. Characterize the engagement and the number of RUF forces involved. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, GEOINT, OSINT).
• CRITICAL: Assess the full operational implications of Kh-101 missile delivery to Engels-2, including potential timelines for a new large-scale missile attack. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, IMINT).
• HIGH: Analyze the RUF video from "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" on "Konstantinovka direction. Yablonovka" (17:52:32Z) to determine current RUF ground activity and capabilities. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT).
• HIGH: Determine the exact nature and origin of the "thousand valuable specialists" from Afghanistan for Russia mentioned by "Военкор Котенок" (17:29:55Z), and their potential impact on RUF's economy or military industrial complex. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, OSINT).
• HIGH: Continue to collect and analyze all fabricated evidence and narratives related to RUF's claimed IRGC/Israeli strikes to prepare robust counter-narratives and expose the deception, including the content shared by Kotsnews and Alex Parker Returns on US/EU involvement. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
• HIGH: Monitor the political discourse around "front-line mail" within RUF (WarGonzo 17:33:14Z) to gauge internal morale and propaganda effectiveness. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Air/Missile/UAV Capabilities: RUF maintains and actively employs significant long-range strike capabilities. The confirmed delivery of Kh-101 missiles to Engels-2 (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS 17:56:37Z) indicates preparation for another large-scale missile attack. Sustained UAV activity in Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts shows continued adaptation of drone tactics. RUF is actively using its AD assets (S-300V) to counter UAF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Ground Capabilities: RUF continues attritional ground assaults in Donetsk (Pokrovsk, Kostyantynivka directions), adapting tactics with civilian vehicles (WarGonzo 17:42:06Z). RUF is also engaged in ground activity in Sumy, evidenced by UAF claims of repelling "meat assaults" and showing RUF casualties. "Старше Эдды" points to "points of concentration of efforts," suggesting strategic focus. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Information Warfare Capabilities: RUF's IO apparatus remains highly active and sophisticated, continuously amplifying the fabricated "Iran-Israel crisis" with false claims and attempting to link it to global and US political developments. They also continue to leverage economic forums (SPIEF) to project an image of strength and stability, and to foster non-Western alliances (China, Afghanistan). They seek to highlight internal Western divisions (anti-Trump rallies, "Ukrainian diaspora" involvement) and influence global perceptions of geopolitics (Russian-Chinese stability). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Intentions: RUF intends to:
  • Continue multi-axis kinetic pressure, preparing for another large-scale missile attack with Kh-101s, and sustaining drone and KAB campaigns.
  • Maintain ground pressure on Eastern and Northern axes, adapting to UAF defenses. The continued activity in Sumy indicates preparation for potential future ground offensives in line with Putin's stated possibilities.
  • CRITICAL: Sustain and intensify the global information warfare campaign, primarily focusing on the fabricated "Iran-Israel crisis" to divert international attention and resources from Ukraine, and leverage this chaos to Russia's geopolitical and economic advantage. They will also continue to project an image of internal stability and global influence, seeking to undermine Western unity and economic strength, while building alliances outside the Western sphere. This includes influencing public opinion in the US and Europe. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Control domestic narratives, promoting economic success and military prowess while suppressing dissent and managing narratives around casualties and internal issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• RUF: The confirmed delivery of Kh-101s to Engels-2 indicates a re-stocking and potential shift towards another major long-range missile campaign. RUF continues to use adapted civilian vehicles for assaults (Pokrovsk) and is maintaining ground pressure in Sumy. In IO, RUF is increasingly trying to link global political events (e.g., US politics) to its fabricated crises, and actively engaging with non-Western partners to project a new world order. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF: UAF continues to effectively counter RUF assaults, particularly the destruction of an assault column on the Kostyantynivka direction. Zelenskiy's emphasis on increasing domestic production of "Shahed" interceptors and UAF's efforts to address internal procurement issues ("verified sellers") show adaptive measures to sustain the defense. UAF continues to innovate in counter-drone technology, as evidenced by the JATEC hackathon win. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• RUF: The arrival of Kh-101 missiles at Engels-2 (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS 17:56:37Z) suggests a robust supply chain for key missile systems. RUF's agreement with Afghanistan for "valuable specialists" (Военкор Котенок 17:29:55Z) suggests ongoing efforts to address labor and expertise shortages, possibly linked to sanctions or mobilization impacts. Efforts to manage public perception of soldier welfare via POW exchanges (MoD RF video) and "front-line mail" narratives (WarGonzo) indicate an awareness of sustainment from a morale perspective. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: UAF is actively addressing logistics and sustainment through domestic production efforts (Shahed interceptors) and improved procurement practices ("verified sellers" from Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦). Continued fundraising efforts (Nikolaevskiy Vanek 17:37:56Z) also highlight ongoing civilian support for sustainment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• RUF: RUF C2 demonstrates strong strategic coordination, evidenced by Putin's public statements at SPIEF, high-level diplomatic engagements (China, Sky News Arabia), and coordinated long-range missile preparations. The ongoing, complex, and impactful information operations campaign confirms a highly centralized and adaptive C2 in the information domain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: UAF C2 continues to show strong responsiveness to threats, as seen in Zelenskiy's statements on Sumy defense and interceptor production. The successful POW exchange also highlights effective C2 and coordination. The call for "verified sellers" for procurement suggests a responsive C2 addressing internal logistics and security concerns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.5. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Confirm the purpose and destination of the "thousand valuable specialists" from Afghanistan. Are they for military or industrial purposes? (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, OSINT).
• HIGH: Analyze the logistical implications of Kh-101 missile delivery to Engels-2: What is the estimated number of missiles? What is the capacity of the storage/loading facilities? (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT).
• MEDIUM: Assess the effectiveness of RUF's S-300V SAM systems against UAF aerial targets based on available data, contrasting RUF claims with observed UAF losses or successes in their deep strike operations. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, OSINT).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Defensive Posture: UAF maintains an active defensive posture, successfully repelling RUF "meat assaults" in Sumy and destroying an assault column in Kostyantynivka. UAF AD is engaged in countering persistent UAV threats. Zelenskiy's statements underscore UAF's determination to contain RUF advances and bolster air defense capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Vulnerability: The confirmed delivery of Kh-101 missiles to Engels-2 indicates a renewed threat of large-scale missile attacks, posing a significant challenge to UAF AD. Persistent UAV activity in various regions also continues to challenge UAF's layered defenses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Internal security and procurement issues, highlighted by "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦", remain a concern that could impact force readiness if not managed effectively. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes: Successful repulsion of RUF ground assaults in Sumy and destruction of an assault column in Kostyantynivka. Successful POW exchange and return of Ukrainian soldiers (Oleg Syniehubov 17:47:02Z). Formalization of drone forces and innovation in counter-drone technology. Zelenskiy's statement about increasing domestic production of "Shahed" interceptors. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Setbacks: Confirmed preparation for a new large-scale RUF missile attack (Kh-101s to Engels-2). Continued RUF ground pressure and adaptation of assault tactics. The ongoing success of RUF's extreme IO in influencing Western policy and diverting attention remains a significant strategic setback. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Air Defense/Counter-Missile: URGENT requirement for continued and enhanced multi-layered AD, especially against long-range cruise missiles (Kh-101) and adapting drone threats. Zelenskiy's commitment to increasing "Shahed" interceptor production is critical, but international assistance remains paramount. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Military Sustainment: Continued emphasis on securing reliable supply chains for equipment and parts, as highlighted by "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" regarding "verified sellers." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Ground Forces: Resources for maintaining defensive fortifications and equipping units engaged in intense ground combat (Pokrovsk, Sumy). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• HIGH: Determine the capacity and timeline for mass production of "Shahed" interceptors as stated by Zelenskiy. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, TECHINT).
• HIGH: Evaluate the specific impact of the "verified sellers" procurement policy on equipment quality and supply chain resilience. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, OSINT).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian:
  • Extreme Diversion (CRITICAL ESCALATION CONTINUED): RUF continues to actively propagate the fabricated "Iran-Israel crisis," influencing public opinion (Kotsnews 17:34:16Z poll) and attempting to connect it to US foreign policy (Операция Z on Trump meeting). Alex Parker Returns' cynical commentary on EU diplomatic efforts further illustrates the intent to discredit Western initiatives and maintain chaos. The raising of the Armenian genocide question by Alex Parker Returns (17:42:47Z) is a diversionary tactic aimed at stirring historical grievances and undermining Western narratives. The bizarre TASS report on "labubu" dolls with faces of Russian officials (17:31:01Z) aims to normalize their leadership and perhaps mock Western consumerism. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Domestic Control & War Justification: Putin's public appearances at SPIEF, amplified by Igor Artamonov (17:37:48Z), focus on economic success, stability, and a "new growth model" to reassure the Russian public despite the war. The emphasis on strong Russian-Chinese relations (TASS 17:56:05Z) projects a narrative of powerful global partnerships and a multi-polar world. WarGonzo's focus on "front-line mail" (17:33:14Z) is a humanizing tactic to build morale and normalize military service. Reporting on POW exchanges (Colonelcassad video, TASS on 3000 bodies) aims to control the narrative around casualties. "Военкор Котенок" on Afghan "specialists" aims to project external support and economic resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Anti-Western/Anti-Ukraine Messaging: "Два майора" (17:53:07Z) highlights anticipated anti-Trump rallies in the US involving Ukrainian diaspora, attempting to portray internal US divisions and link them to Ukraine. The publication of pictures of destroyed buildings in Belgorod (Два майора 17:34:06Z) aims to portray Ukrainian aggression and foster anti-Ukrainian sentiment domestically. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Ukrainian:
  • Transparency & Call for Action: UAF leadership continues to immediately report on RUF aggression, including UAV threats (Air Force 17:38:04Z, 17:39:56Z) and strategic missile preparations (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS 17:56:37Z). Zelenskiy's public statements on Sumy and interceptor production actively counter RUF narratives. UAF continues to publicize its successes, such as repelling assaults in Sumy and Kostyantynivka (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 videos). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Morale & Resilience: The successful POW exchange, heavily publicized by Oleg Syniehubov (17:47:02Z), is a significant morale boost for both military personnel and the civilian population. Nikolaevskiy Vanek's report on successful fundraising (17:37:56Z) indicates continued public support and resilience. General Staff of UAF highlights innovations in counter-drone technology, demonstrating UAF's adaptive capacity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Counter-IO: RBK-Ukraine (17:34:48Z) explicitly counters Peskov's dismissive remarks, demonstrating an active counter-narrative strategy. "Оперативний ЗСУ" (17:46:27Z) amplifies DW's statement on Europe needing to produce 5x more weapons than Russia, aimed at maintaining international pressure and support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian: The successful POW exchange and the return of soldiers are significant morale boosters. Transparency from UAF leadership regarding threats and successes helps maintain public trust and resolve. Zelenskiy's emphasis on domestic production of interceptors also reinforces a sense of self-reliance and progress. Continued RUF air and missile threats, and the preparation for new large-scale attacks, will maintain public vigilance but also resilience. The focus on reliable equipment procurement (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦) is important for soldier morale and public confidence in UAF's care for its forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Russian: State propaganda focusing on economic stability and geopolitical influence aims to maintain public support. The emphasis on POW exchanges and "front-line mail" are attempts to manage military morale and public perception of soldier welfare. Reports on "valuable specialists" from Afghanistan might project a sense of global cooperation and resourcefulness. However, the continuous need for such propaganda suggests underlying anxieties or potential dissatisfaction among the populace regarding the ongoing conflict and its costs. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Diversion Effectiveness (CRITICAL): RUF's continued amplification of the fabricated "Iran-Israel crisis," including its integration into discussions about US foreign policy (Trump meeting, Kotsnews poll), confirms its strategic effectiveness in diverting international attention. Alex Parker Returns' cynical comments on EU diplomatic efforts further demonstrate RUF's intent to disrupt and undermine Western unity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Geopolitical Alignment: Putin's meeting with the Chinese Deputy Premier and his statements emphasizing Russian-Chinese relations as a "powerful factor of stability" (TASS 17:56:05Z) indicate an ongoing effort to solidify a non-Western bloc and counter Western influence. The agreement with Afghanistan for "specialists" (Военкор Котенок 17:29:55Z) suggests continued diversification of partnerships away from the West. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Military Aid/Production: DW's report amplified by "Оперативний ЗСУ" (17:46:27Z) that Europe needs to produce 5x more weapons than Russia highlights ongoing discussions and concerns within Western alliances about defense industrial capacity in support of Ukraine. The Ukrainian company's win at the JATEC hackathon for counter-drone technology signals continued Western technological collaboration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Quantify the extent to which the "Iran-Israel crisis" narrative, including its new political linkages, is being adopted by non-Western media and governments, and how this impacts their stance on the war in Ukraine. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Monitor international diplomatic responses to Russia's renewed emphasis on strategic partnerships with China and other non-Western states, and assess their tangible impact on sanctions evasion or military-industrial cooperation. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
• MEDIUM: Assess the impact of Western media reports (e.g., DW on European weapons production) on public and political sentiment within Europe regarding support for Ukraine and defense spending. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Sustained Attritional Ground Operations: RUF will continue localized ground pressure in Eastern (Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Kostyantynivka direction) and Northern (Sumy) sectors, adapting tactics like using improvised vehicles or continuing "meat assaults" to test UAF defenses and achieve limited gains. "Старше Эдды" points to "points of concentrated efforts," confirming strategic focus.
• Escalated Air and Missile Strikes: RUF will likely execute another large-scale missile attack, given the confirmed delivery of Kh-101s to Engels-2. This will be coupled with persistent and adapting drone attacks against urban areas (Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy) and critical infrastructure to degrade UAF air defense and psychological resilience. The ballistic missile threat to Sumy will remain.
• Intensified Hybrid Warfare (Information Operations): RUF will continue its extreme information warfare campaign, relentlessly amplifying the fabricated "Iran-Israel crisis" and attempting to link it to global political events and Western vulnerabilities. Expect more attempts to discredit Western diplomacy, highlight internal Western divisions, and promote Russia's geopolitical strength through non-Western alliances. The "dirty bomb" narrative and WW3 warnings will likely resurface when convenient. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Focus on Domestic Stability and Diversified Foreign Relations: RUF will continue to prioritize domestic messaging emphasizing economic stability and a "new growth model." They will also continue to seek and publicize non-Western economic and political partnerships (China, Afghanistan) to circumvent sanctions and project a new world order. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Coordinated Strategic Offensive with Massive Air/Missile Barrage and Global IO Event: RUF launches a multi-echelon ground offensive on the Sumy axis, aiming for a rapid breakthrough, potentially accompanied by simultaneous large-scale missile and drone attacks across multiple Ukrainian cities (leveraging the Kh-101s at Engels-2). Concurrently, RUF will trigger a globally disruptive information event, potentially involving a fabricated cyberattack on critical infrastructure in a Western or allied country, explicitly attributed to "Iranian" or "Israeli" actors within the manufactured Middle East crisis. This would aim to create maximum global confusion and diversion, forcing international leaders to prioritize de-escalation of the fabricated crisis and pressure Ukraine into disadvantageous "negotiations" while the ground offensive in Sumy attempts to achieve strategic objectives. The objective would be to achieve a decisive breakthrough on the battlefield while leveraging the global distraction to prevent a robust international response. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 12-24 hours):
  • RUF: Expect continued ground reconnaissance/localized assaults, persistent air/drone threats to urban areas, particularly Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk. High probability of further preparation for a large-scale Kh-101 missile attack. Further, more specific amplification of the "Iran-Israel crisis" with more dangerous and elaborate fabrications, including new political linkages. Continued efforts to project domestic stability and global influence.
  • UAF Decision Point: Maintain highest AD readiness, particularly in Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and regions vulnerable to Kh-101 strikes. Intensify ISR on the Sumy axis for early warning of any large-scale ground force buildup. Expedite deployment of counter-UAV and EW systems. Continue rapid and robust debunking of RUF's extreme IO, specifically targeting the political linkages to the fabricated Middle East crisis and any new "dirty bomb" pre-texts. Publicize successful POW exchanges and efforts to secure reliable equipment.
• Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
  • RUF: Likely execution of a large-scale missile attack. Continued high-intensity ground and air pressure. RUF IO will seek new "developments" in its fabricated Middle East narrative, potentially linked to new "mediation" offers or new false-flag events, and will continue to exploit dehumanizing narratives. Attempts to exploit perceived UAF vulnerabilities or international distraction will intensify. Expect more rhetoric on Russia's military-industrial complex and "new world order."
  • UAF Decision Point: Prioritize ISR on Engels-2 and other strategic bomber bases for early warning of missile launches. Engage international partners to directly counter the explicit fabrication of military actions in the "Iran-Israel crisis" and its broader political implications, ensuring continued focus and support for Ukraine. Leverage innovation in counter-drone tech to mitigate threats. Reinforce defensive positions, particularly in Sumy, and prepare flexible reserves for rapid response to an MDCOA. Proactively address any narratives undermining international support or military aid.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Prioritize all-source ISR on Engels-2 airbase for any indicators of Tu-95MS or Tu-160 bomber preparations, including refueling, munitions loading (specifically Kh-101s), or increased flight activity. This is paramount for early warning of a major missile strike. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, IMINT, OSINT).
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Intensify OSINT and HUMINT efforts to understand the internal dynamics of RUF's decision-making regarding the extreme escalation of the "Iran-Israel crisis" narrative, specifically the new political linkages and potential for false-flag operations. Focus on identifying and exposing new fabricated imagery and especially new false claims of specific military strikes on named civilian/government targets and the new, utterly dehumanizing narratives, including the exploitation of POWs and new political linkages. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
3. HIGH: Continue focused ISR on the Sumy axis to monitor RUF ground force deployments, logistics, and any indicators of a shift from localized assaults to larger offensive operations. Analyze RUF drone footage from this area for insights into their tactics and capabilities. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: All-source intelligence, GEOINT, IMINT, SIGINT).
4. HIGH: Conduct deep analysis of the reported agreement with Afghanistan for "valuable specialists," identifying their background, purpose, and potential impact on Russia's economic or military capacity. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, OSINT).
5. ONGOING: Reinforce security protocols for military personnel, including addressing procurement vulnerabilities highlighted by the "moped incident," to prevent internal security breaches or morale erosion. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, LAW ENFORCEMENT LIAISON).

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain highest AD alert posture across all Oblasts, particularly those vulnerable to Kh-101 strikes (e.g., Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia) and the Northern axis (Sumy). Prioritize layered defense against both cruise and ballistic missiles, and adapting drone threats.
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Accelerate the deployment and integration of advanced counter-UAV and EW systems capable of countering new RUF drone variants. Expedite the increased production and deployment of "Shahed" interceptors as prioritized by Zelenskiy.
3. URGENT: Reinforce AD systems and passive air defense measures (e.g., hardened shelters) for critical infrastructure and urban centers, anticipating future large-scale missile attacks.

6.3. Ground Forces:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain robust defensive posture and combat readiness across all Eastern Front axes, particularly Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and areas of RUF pressure in Kharkiv Oblast. Continue to leverage FPV drones against fortified positions and to counter RUF ground advances.
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Prepare and position flexible reserves for rapid deployment to the Sumy/Kharkiv/Kupiansk axis in case of a major RUF ground offensive (MDCOA). Expedite and reinforce engineering and fortification efforts in Sumy Oblast.
3. ONGOING: Continue to inflict maximum personnel and equipment losses on RUF through effective defensive operations, counter-battery fire, and precision strikes. Exploit RUF's use of adapted civilian vehicles for assaults as a sign of logistical strain.
4. HIGH: Ensure robust logistical support and reliable supply chains for frontline units, implementing stringent vetting for procured equipment and personnel.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch an unprecedented, globally coordinated information campaign to directly counter Russia's persistent and escalating fabrication of the "Iran-Israel crisis," particularly the explicit political linkages and the new Kh-101 missile threat. Provide irrefutable evidence of the deception, highlighting the psychological and diplomatic manipulation. Explicitly link this to a Russian strategy to divert aid and attention from Ukraine, destabilize global security, and directly benefit from geopolitical instability. Immediately and publicly debunk any new fabricated "evidence" or political claims related to the manufactured crisis.
2. URGENT: Proactively address the imminent threat of a new large-scale RUF missile attack (Kh-101s) through transparent communication, calling for stronger international responses (e.g., more AD systems) and humanitarian aid, while highlighting the deliberate targeting of civilians as war crimes. Publicize UAF's enhanced AD capabilities and domestic production efforts.
3. URGENT: Engage international partners to re-focus attention and aid specifically on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, explicitly countering any narrative that shifts focus to fabricated crises. Emphasize the long-term threat of Russia's hybrid warfare to global stability and the direct link between this destabilization and the war in Ukraine. Counter Russian narratives of a "new world order" and their strengthening ties with non-Western actors by highlighting their true intentions and the global risks they pose.
4. ONGOING: Continue to document and disseminate evidence of RUF war crimes and internal issues (e.g., use of converted vehicles, logistics strain, reports of "specialists" from Afghanistan, managing POW narratives) to maintain international pressure and discredit RUF's narratives. Highlight UAF's innovation in defense technology (e.g., JATEC win) and successful POW exchanges to project strength and efficiency.
5. HIGH: Actively counter Russian attempts to sow discord within international alliances and Western countries (e.g., anti-Trump rallies) by exposing the Kremlin's manipulative intent and reaffirming the strength of democratic values and alliances.

END OF REPORT.