Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 200926Z JUN 25 CLASSIFICATION: SECRET // NOFORN REPORTING UNIT: G2 ANALYST, UAF HIGH COMMAND

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Southern Front (Odesa): Confirmed mass drone attack on Odesa and its suburbs overnight (Zelenskiy / Official, KMVA, Oleh Syniehubov), injuring approximately 20 people (including two children aged 12 and 17, and three State Emergency Service rescuers) and one fatality. Photo and video evidence from Zelenskiy / Official, KMVA, Oleh Syniehubov, and Colonelcassad (RU source) show significant fires and damage to urban areas. This confirms continued RUF focus on terrorizing civilian populations and degrading infrastructure in key port cities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Eastern Front (Kharkiv): Mass drone attack on Kharkiv and its suburbs overnight, affecting Shevchenkivskyi and Osnovyanskyi districts (Oleh Syniehubov, Zelenskiy / Official, KMVA). Confirmed casualties and damage. RUF claims to have liberated "Moskovka" in Kharkiv Oblast (TASS, WarGonzo, Kotsnews, Colonelcassad), which, if true, indicates limited RUF advances in the area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for attacks; MEDIUM for RUF claim of capture, pending UAF confirmation).
• Eastern Front (Pokrovsk/Novopavlivka): "VoIn DV" (RU source) claims their reconnaissance and motorized rifle units damaged and destroyed a UAF armored vehicle near "Shevchenko," likely referring to the Novopavlivka axis based on previous reporting. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE for RUF claim, pending UAF BDA).
• Eastern Front (Donbas): Colonelcassad (RU source) posts drone footage from "Donbas" showing KRAZ trucks and "personnel" (zhivaya sila) under surveillance by a "BABA-YAGA" drone, indicating continued RUF drone activity for ISR and potential targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RUF drone activity).
• Southern Front (Zaporizhzhia): Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation towards Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• General: ТАСС (RU state media) claims Russian Armed Forces liberated 6 settlements over the past week (0803Z JUN 20), a broad and unverified claim typically used for propaganda. (LOW CONFIDENCE for RUF claim).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

• No new direct reports affecting battlefield conditions. Previous report on increasing rabies cases in Sumy region remains relevant.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces (UAF):
  • Air Defense (AD): Engaged with over 20 RUF attack drones over Odesa and Kharkiv. Despite casualties and damage, the number of destroyed drones from previous reports (10 Shahed in south, 13/14 in Zaporizhzhia) indicates continued AD effectiveness. However, attacks persist. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Civilian Support/Resilience: Zelenskiy / Official, KMVA, and Oleh Syniehubov's immediate reporting and photographic evidence of firefighting and rescue efforts in Odesa and Kharkiv highlight rapid emergency response and civilian resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Internal Security: Офіс Генерального прокурора and Оперативний ЗСУ report the sentencing of international drug traffickers involved in cocaine smuggling from Ecuador. While not directly military, this demonstrates continued effective law enforcement and counter-organized crime efforts within Ukraine, crucial for national stability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Information Operations (IO): Ukrainian leadership (Zelenskiy / Official, RBK-Ukraina) immediately condemned the mass drone attacks, provided casualty figures, and emphasized the need to cut off Russia's war financing, demonstrating rapid and coordinated public communication to galvanize support. STERNENKO (UA source) reports on pro-Palestinian activists damaging UK military aircraft, which while not direct RUF action, feeds into the broader information environment regarding global instability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Russian Forces (RUF):
  • Air Operations: RUF continues mass drone attacks using Shaheds on Odesa and Kharkiv. Tactical aviation is active, launching KABs towards Zaporizhzhia (Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). Fighterbomber (RU source) shows a Ka-52 cockpit view, indicating continued attack helicopter operations, though the image itself does not confirm a strike. Colonelcassad (RU source) footage shows a "BABA-YAGA" drone in use, confirming continued deployment of this type of attack/ISR UAV. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RUF activity).
  • Ground Operations: RUF claims localized advance and capture of "Moskovka" in Kharkiv Oblast (TASS, WarGonzo, Kotsnews, Colonelcassad). "VoIn DV" (RU source) claims a UAF armored vehicle destruction near "Shevchenko" (likely Novopavlivka axis). These, if verified, indicate continued offensive pressure. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE for RUF claims of capture/destruction).
  • Information Operations (IO):
    • Extreme Diversion (CRITICAL ESCALATION CONTINUED): RUF (TASS, Kotsnews, Операция Z) continues to relentlessly push the fabricated "Iran-Israel crisis" narrative, now explicitly citing Israeli nuclear attacks and a nuclear threat over the Caspian Sea (TASS, Maria Zakharova). They continue to portray Russia as the "mediator" attempting to de-escalate the situation, despite being the source of the fabrications. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for continued and escalated fabrication).
    • Domestic & War Justification: TASS reports on domestic issues (Mikhalkov/Efremov theater, minimum wage increase, Golikova on feedback for foreigners in Russia), attempting to project normalcy and focus on internal affairs. AV Bogomaz (RU source) shares photos from SPIEF, projecting economic activity and stability. RUF also continues to claim territorial gains (Moskovka, 6 settlements) to boost domestic morale and justify the war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RUF IO activity).
    • Geopolitical Messaging: "Dva Mayora" (RU source) raises the question "Israel with Turkey are united?", showing continued attempts to sow discord and manipulate international relations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Immediate and independent verification of RUF claims of capturing "Moskovka" in Kharkiv Oblast. Determine the exact location and tactical significance of this settlement, if captured. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: GEOINT, IMINT, SIGINT).
• HIGH: Independent BDA and verification of the claimed destruction of a UAF armored vehicle near "Shevchenko" (Novopavlivka axis). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT).
• CRITICAL: Assess the technical specifications and capabilities of the "BABA-YAGA" drone as observed in the Colonelcassad footage, particularly its ISR and potential targeting capabilities. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: TECHINT, IMINT).
• CRITICAL: Continue to monitor the impact of Russia's escalated nuclear blackmail and extreme fabrications regarding the "Iran-Israel crisis" on international diplomatic efforts and public opinion, particularly concerning aid and sanctions related to Ukraine. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT, ALL-SOURCE).
• HIGH: Further assess the current threat posed by increasing rabies cases in Sumy region for UAF personnel and civilian population. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, OSINT).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Air/Missile/UAV Capabilities: RUF maintains a high capability for widespread drone and KAB strikes against urban centers and military targets. The continued use of "BABA-YAGA" and other drones indicates robust ISR and strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Ground Capabilities: RUF continues multi-axis ground assaults, with confirmed (though unverified by UAF) localized advances in Kharkiv Oblast. They are capable of sustained attritional warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Information Warfare Capabilities: RUF's IO apparatus has escalated to unprecedented levels of fabrication, specifically in the "Iran-Israel crisis," including direct nuclear blackmail and claims of US military involvement. This demonstrates a sophisticated and unconstrained ability to generate and disseminate complex disinformation globally. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Intentions: RUF intends to:
  • Continue multi-axis ground pressure, aiming for localized gains and attrition on Eastern Front axes (Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Lyman, and now potentially increased focus in Kharkiv).
  • Degrade Ukrainian air defense and psychological resilience through persistent mass drone and KAB strikes on urban areas (Odesa, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia).
  • CRITICAL: Successfully divert global attention and resources from Ukraine through the ongoing, intensified, and increasingly dangerous fabricated "Iran-Israel crisis" narrative, including explicit nuclear blackmail.
  • Control domestic narratives by projecting normalcy, economic stability (SPIEF), and military success, while deflecting blame for internal issues.
  • Continue to refine and deploy advanced drone technologies ("BABA-YAGA") for tactical advantage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• RUF: The explicit use of "nuclear threat" and "Israeli nuclear strikes" in the fabricated Middle East narrative marks a significant and dangerous escalation in RUF's hybrid warfare tactics. Confirmed continued mass drone attacks on Odesa and Kharkiv, coupled with KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia, indicate a sustained air terror campaign. Claims of "Moskovka" capture suggest continued, albeit localized, ground offensives in Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO; MEDIUM for ground tactics).
• UAF: UAF maintains a consistent and effective public information response to RUF attacks, immediately condemning and disseminating details, and reinforcing the need for international support against Russian financing of the war. Continued successful law enforcement/counter-organized crime operations support overall national security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• RUF: Sustained multi-axis ground assaults and air/drone strikes indicate continued access to munitions and fuel. The focus on showcasing internal "normalcy" (SPIEF, cultural events) suggests efforts to project an image of stability despite war-related strains. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: Immediate and extensive emergency response to mass drone attacks in Odesa and Kharkiv demonstrates robust civilian logistical and emergency service capabilities, essential for maintaining public morale and recovery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• RUF: RUF C2 demonstrates highly coordinated multi-domain operations, particularly in its synchronized air/drone strikes and ground offensives, alongside its complex and rapidly escalating information warfare campaign. Their ability to generate and disseminate sophisticated fabrications and nuclear blackmail across state and pro-Kremlin channels is indicative of centralized and effective IO C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: UAF C2 demonstrates effective coordination of defensive operations, emergency response, and rapid public communication in response to RUF attacks. Law enforcement and counter-intelligence continue to operate effectively. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.5. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Assess the specific directives and coordination mechanisms behind Russia's escalated nuclear blackmail rhetoric regarding the fabricated Middle East crisis.
• HIGH: Analyze the observed operational patterns and effectiveness of the "BABA-YAGA" drone in the Donbas region.
• HIGH: Independently verify the RUF claim of liberating "Moskovka" in Kharkiv Oblast and assess its strategic importance.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Defensive Posture: UAF continues to maintain a defensive posture across all active fronts, particularly in Kharkiv and the Eastern Front. AD forces remain active and capable of intercepting a significant number of incoming threats, though they are still being overwhelmed by mass attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Vulnerability: Despite defensive successes, mass drone and KAB attacks on civilian areas (Odesa, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia) continue to inflict casualties and significant infrastructure damage, highlighting the persistent challenge for UAF AD. The RUF claim of taking "Moskovka" indicates continued pressure and potential for tactical setbacks in Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes: Continued effective AD interceptions. Robust and rapid emergency response and humanitarian support in affected urban areas. Successful operations against organized crime by law enforcement. Effective public information campaigns to rally international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Setbacks: Civilian casualties and extensive infrastructure damage from mass drone attacks in Odesa and Kharkiv. RUF claim of "Moskovka" capture, if verified, represents a tactical loss. Persistent KAB threat to Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Air Defense/Counter-UAV: Continued and urgent requirement for more advanced and multi-layered AD systems to protect urban centers and critical infrastructure from persistent, large-scale, and evolving RUF drone and KAB attacks. Specific need for effective countermeasures against "BABA-YAGA" and other advanced drone variants. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Reconstruction/Humanitarian: Significant resources are required for immediate emergency response, ongoing humanitarian aid, and future reconstruction in areas affected by constant RUF strikes, particularly Odesa and Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• HIGH: Conduct rapid damage assessment (BDA) for Odesa and Kharkiv from the recent drone attacks to inform reconstruction and humanitarian aid requirements.
• MEDIUM: Analyze the frequency and success rate of RUF's "BABA-YAGA" drone attacks to inform UAF counter-drone strategies.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian:
  • Extreme Diversion (CRITICAL): RUF continues to use its IO apparatus as a primary strategic weapon. The current phase involves explicit nuclear blackmail (e.g., "World is centimeters from nuclear catastrophe," "US may hit Iran with nuclear weapons," "Nuclear threat over Caspian") and further fabrications (e.g., "50 Israeli jets attacked Iranian nuclear targets"). This is a direct attempt to force a global shift in focus and diplomatic priorities away from Ukraine.
  • Domestic Control: Russia attempts to project normalcy and economic stability (SPIEF), celebrate minor territorial gains (Moskovka, 6 settlements), and distract from the war through non-military news (theater, food apps, government announcements).
  • Geopolitical Manipulation: RUF aims to portray Russia as a responsible global actor offering "mediation" in the fabricated crisis, and to sow discord between international partners (e.g., Israel/Turkey unity). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Ukrainian:
  • Transparency & Call for Action: UAF leadership is effectively using official channels to immediately report on RUF attacks, casualties, and damage, condemning these actions and calling for increased international support, particularly financial measures against Russia.
  • Internal Security & Justice: Reports on successful law enforcement actions (drug trafficking convictions) bolster confidence in state institutions.
  • Global Awareness: Highlighting the actions of pro-Palestinian activists damaging UK military assets, while not directly related to RUF, serves to underscore the broader volatile international environment that Russia seeks to exploit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian: The continuous mass drone attacks on major cities will inevitably cause anxiety and stress among the civilian population. However, the rapid response of emergency services and the public statements from high-level officials will help to maintain a sense of resilience and national unity. The successes in law enforcement also contribute to a sense of stability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Russian: The consistent flow of state-controlled narratives focusing on internal stability, economic progress, and fabricated external threats aims to consolidate public support for the government and divert attention from war realities. The explicit nuclear blackmail is also intended to instill fear and rally support around the leadership, portraying it as defending Russia against a dangerous external environment. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Diversion Effectiveness (CRITICAL): RUF's relentless and escalating "Iran-Israel crisis" fabrication, combined with nuclear blackmail, represents a highly effective and dangerous strategy to distract international partners and potentially fragment diplomatic and military support for Ukraine. The sheer volume and severity of this disinformation campaign demand a robust and coordinated international counter-response. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Quantify the extent to which the "Iran-Israel crisis" narrative is impacting the allocation of international diplomatic resources and the delivery of military/financial aid to Ukraine.
• HIGH: Monitor international media and diplomatic statements for any shift in focus or resources influenced by RUF's nuclear blackmail.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Sustained Attritional Ground Offensives: RUF will continue high-intensity ground assaults across the Eastern Front, particularly on the Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar axes. Efforts to probe and gain ground in Kharkiv Oblast, as evidenced by the "Moskovka" claim, will likely continue, aiming to fix UAF forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Persistent Mass Air and Drone Strikes: RUF will continue to launch large-scale drone and KAB attacks against Ukrainian cities (Odesa, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia), critical infrastructure, and military targets. They will likely increase the use of advanced drones like "BABA-YAGA" to test UAF AD/EW. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Escalated Hybrid Warfare (Information Operations): RUF will maintain and further intensify its extreme information warfare campaign. The "Iran-Israel crisis" narrative will continue to be amplified with more audacious fabrications and nuclear blackmail rhetoric, aiming to sustain global distraction and diplomatic pressure. Russia will continue to present itself as a responsible "mediator." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Focus on Domestic Stability: RUF will continue to prioritize domestic messaging emphasizing normalcy, economic stability, and minor military successes to maintain public support and minimize internal dissent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Coordinated Strategic Diversion and Northern Offensive: RUF launches a multi-echelon ground offensive on a new axis in the North (e.g., Sumy, or a more significant push into Kharkiv) while simultaneously orchestrating a highly publicized, potentially false-flag "event" related to the fabricated "Iran-Israel crisis" involving a nuclear facility. This event would be heavily amplified by RUF IO, further diverting global attention and potentially triggering calls for a wider international "peacekeeping" intervention, thus pressuring Ukraine and its allies into unfavorable "negotiations" while the northern offensive attempts a strategic breakthrough. This would be supported by a concentrated air and missile campaign, including the widespread deployment of advanced drones and KABs, to degrade UAF C2 and AD in the target sector. (MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 12-24 hours):
  • RUF: Expect continued ground assaults across the Eastern Front and persistent air/drone threats to urban areas. Further amplification of the "Iran-Israel crisis" with more dangerous and elaborate fabrications.
  • UAF Decision Point: Maintain highest AD readiness, particularly in Odesa, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia. Conduct immediate ground truth assessment of "Moskovka" status. Prepare for continued and escalated RUF information operations, especially nuclear blackmail. Reinforce counter-IO efforts with immediate and robust debunking.
• Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
  • RUF: Likely continued high-intensity ground and air pressure. RUF IO will seek new "developments" in its fabricated Middle East narrative, potentially linked to Russia's "mediation" offers. Attempts to exploit perceived UAF vulnerabilities or international distraction.
  • UAF Decision Point: Prioritize ISR on the Sumy/Kharkiv axis for early warning of any significant force buildup or shifts indicating the MDCOA. Conduct technical analysis of "BABA-YAGA" and other observed new drone variants to develop countermeasures. Engage international partners to directly counter the nuclear blackmail narrative and ensure continued focus and support for Ukraine.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Prioritize all-source ISR on the Kharkiv and Sumy axes. Focus on confirming RUF force dispositions, logistics, and any indicators of a major offensive or strategic maneuver (MDCOA). Independent verification of the "Moskovka" claim is paramount. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: All-source intelligence, GEOINT, IMINT).
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Conduct rapid TECHINT analysis of the "BABA-YAGA" drone and other newly observed RUF drone capabilities (e.g., fiber-optic FPVs) to understand their operational parameters, vulnerabilities, and develop effective EW and AD countermeasures. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: TECHINT, IMINT).
3. URGENT: Intensify OSINT and HUMINT efforts to understand the internal dynamics of RUF's decision-making regarding the extreme escalation of the "Iran-Israel crisis" narrative and nuclear blackmail. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
4. HIGH: Continue to monitor and expose RUF internal issues and their impact on force generation and discipline.

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain highest AD alert posture in Odesa, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts due to ongoing mass drone and KAB threats. Prioritize defense of civilian populations and critical infrastructure.
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Accelerate the deployment and integration of advanced counter-UAV and EW systems capable of countering AI-enabled, direct RF-controlled, and potentially fiber-optic drones.
3. URGENT: Reinforce AD systems and EW capabilities along the Kharkiv and Sumy axes to counter increased RUF air activity and protect ground forces from air attack, especially in the event of an MDCOA.

6.3. Ground Forces:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain robust defensive posture and combat readiness across all Eastern Front axes, particularly Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and areas of RUF pressure in Kharkiv Oblast.
2. URGENT: Prepare and position flexible reserves for rapid deployment to the Kharkiv/Sumy axis in case of a major RUF ground offensive (MDCOA).
3. ONGOING: Continue to inflict maximum personnel and equipment losses on RUF through effective defensive operations, counter-battery fire, and precision strikes.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch an unprecedented, globally coordinated information campaign to directly counter Russia's persistent and escalating fabrication of the "Iran-Israel crisis," particularly the nuclear blackmail. Provide irrefutable evidence of the deception, highlighting the psychological and diplomatic manipulation. Explicitly link this to a Russian strategy to divert aid and attention from Ukraine.
2. URGENT: Proactively address the civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in Odesa and Kharkiv through transparent communication, calling for stronger international responses and humanitarian aid.
3. URGENT: Engage international partners to re-focus attention and aid specifically on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, explicitly countering any narrative that shifts focus to fabricated crises or Russian "mediation" offers. Emphasize the long-term threat of Russia's hybrid warfare to global stability.
4. ONGOING: Continue to document and disseminate evidence of RUF war crimes and internal issues to maintain international pressure and discredit RUF's narratives.

END OF REPORT.