Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 191200Z JUN 25 CLASSIFICATION: SECRET // NOFORN REPORTING UNIT: G2 ANALYST, UAF HIGH COMMAND

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Northern Front (Sumy/Kharkiv/Kursk):
  • Sumy Axis: UAF Air Force reports continued launches of KABs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast (11:26:39Z Повітряні Сили), indicating sustained Russian air pressure. Previous reports of UAF AD activity and effective interdiction in Sumy (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС 09:26:23Z, DeepState 09:34:50Z) suggest the area remains contested. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RU KAB strikes in Sumy).
  • Kharkiv Axis: No new direct reports from Kharkiv. Previous reports (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS 10:29:11Z) indicate active UAF defensive operations and successful engagements. (NO CHANGE).
  • Russian Internal Security: Russian sources continued to report on the large number of Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions (prev. rep.) and confirmed drone attacks in Orenburg (prev. rep.). (NO CHANGE).
• Eastern Front (Donetsk/Lyman/Sievierodonetsk/Kramatorsk/Toretsk/Pokrovsk/Novopavlivka):
  • Donetsk Axis: Николаевский Ванёк (11:27:02Z, 11:27:03Z) provides video of Mykolaiv marines repelling a powerful mechanized assault by Russian forces in Donbas, showing an armored vehicle struck and exploding. This directly counters Russian claims of widespread advances and confirms effective UAF defensive actions. Russian MoD claims the liberation of Novonikolayevka (prev. rep.) remain unverified by UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF repelling mechanized assault, MEDIUM for continued contested combat around claimed RU gains).
  • Chasiv Yar/Toretsk/Kramatorsk: No new direct reports. (NO CHANGE).
• Southern Front (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
  • Zaporizhzhia: UAF Air Force previously reported repeated KAB launches. (NO CHANGE).
  • Kherson Axis (RU Perspective): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (11:30:56Z, 11:30:57Z) shows Russian soldiers at a training ground near occupied Perevalne in Crimea, training to evacuate wounded using stretchers and monowheels, implying preparations for future operations in Kherson Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RU training activities).
• Deep Rear (Russia/Occupied Territories):
  • Volgograd Airport: TASS reports restrictions lifted at Volgograd airport (11:34:16Z), potentially indicating a previous security incident or military activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RU internal security event).
  • Crimea: Два майора (11:35:06Z, 11:35:07Z) posts a video claiming to show a "new biomechanical semi-submersible USV" (МБЭК) near Crimean shores, but the video actually shows a pig swimming. This is likely a deliberate disinformation attempt or an internal joke, but the claim itself indicates continued Russian paranoia regarding UAF naval drone activity near Crimea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RU paranoia regarding USVs near Crimea; HIGH CONFIDENCE for the video being disinformation).
  • Poltavka (RU claimed): Воин DV (11:39:04Z, 11:39:05Z) claims drone operators of the 38th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade destroyed a UAF vehicle attempting rotation in the Poltavka area, reinforcing Russian efforts to interdict UAF logistics and personnel movement. This Poltavka is likely in Donetsk Oblast. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE for RU strike, LOW for UAF rotation verification).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

• No new specific weather or environmental updates directly affecting combat operations.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces (UAF):
  • Successfully repelling Russian mechanized assaults in Donbas (Mykolaiv marines, 11:27:02Z).
  • Actively defending against KAB threats in Sumy (11:26:39Z).
  • Confirmed Prisoner of War (POW) exchange with Russia, returning UAF servicemen (Zelenskiy / Official 11:42:58Z, Олег Синєгубов 11:43:36Z, STERNENKO 11:44:08Z, РБК-Україна 11:44:46Z, Сергій Лисак 11:45:13Z, Оперативний ЗСУ 11:45:13Z, Координаційний штаб 11:45:54Z, Запорізька ОВА 11:46:27Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS 11:49:24Z, Оперативний ЗСУ 11:49:32Z). This confirms ongoing communication and agreements. The Coordination Staff for POWs notes that seriously ill and wounded defenders were returned per Istanbul agreements (Координаційний штаб 11:45:54Z, Оперативний ЗСУ 11:49:32Z). (HIGH CONFIDENCE for POW exchange).
• Russian Forces (RUF):
  • Continuing KAB strikes in Sumy (11:26:39Z).
  • Russian MoD also confirmed the POW exchange, stating a group of Russian servicemen was returned "in accordance with agreements reached on 2 June in Istanbul" (TASS 11:39:00Z, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 11:42:41Z, TASS 11:43:22Z, MoD Russia 11:47:26Z, Операция Z 11:48:49Z). This reinforces the "Istanbul agreements" as a functional channel, albeit selective.
  • The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) has issued a direct warning to the USA against interfering in combat operations against Iran, stating it is "fraught with uncontrollable consequences" (Поддубный 11:31:01Z). This amplifies the fabricated Middle East crisis and attempts to deter Western involvement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for escalation of IO).
  • Continued Russian IO efforts regarding alleged Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities (Операция Z 11:36:37Z). This claim is then immediately walked back by TASS, stating an Israeli army spokesperson "mistakenly" named Bushehr among the attacked sites (ТАСС 11:32:10Z), indicating internal inconsistencies or a rapid tactical retreat from an overly aggressive false claim. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RU false flag / walk-back).
  • Continued promotion of Putin's diplomatic engagements (phone call with Xi Jinping, with both condemning Israeli actions against Iran - Colonelcassad 11:41:35Z), reinforcing the Russian-Chinese alignment and Middle East focus. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Russian state media continue to project a strong stance against Germany, with Басурин о главном (11:44:01Z) announcing Russia terminates military cooperation, reinforcing previous reports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Internal Political/Economic (RU/UA):
  • Ukraine: The widespread reporting of the POW exchange across UAF and regional administration channels highlights the importance of this event for morale and public confidence.
  • Russia: TASS reports that the European Commission admits inability to distinguish Russian gas from other sources and will control imports by other means (11:26:33Z), suggesting ongoing energy leverage for Russia and challenges for EU sanctions. ASTRA (11:40:23Z) satirically reports Putin could become a new character in "Prostokvashino," reflecting internal political commentary. Новости Москвы (11:42:04Z) reports a significant data breach (16 billion passwords for major tech companies), raising concerns about cyber security and potentially linked to state actors. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for EU sanctions challenge and internal RU cyber vulnerabilities/propaganda).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Air/Missile/UAV Capabilities: Continued use of KABs on Sumy (11:26:39Z) demonstrates sustained tactical aviation strike capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Ground Capabilities: Russian forces are still capable of launching mechanized assaults in Donbas (repelled by Mykolaiv marines, 11:27:02Z), indicating persistent offensive capabilities despite losses. Training for wounded evacuation near Crimea suggests preparations for future or sustained ground operations in Kherson (11:30:56Z). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Logistics & Support: Training activities in Crimea (11:30:56Z) indicate continued efforts to prepare and rotate forces, ensuring sustainment for operations in the south.
• Hybrid/Information Warfare (EXTREME LEVEL, NUCLEAR BLACKMAIL/FALSE FLAGS CONTINUED AND WALKED BACK, DIRECT US WARNING, POISED FOR NEGOTIATIONS):
  • Middle East Diversion (Continued Amplification, Nuclear Attack Claims, and immediate walk-back, Direct Warning to US): Russian channels continue to amplify claims of Israeli strikes in Iran (Colonelcassad 11:32:25Z, Операция Z 11:36:37Z). The TASS report (11:32:10Z) claiming an Israeli army spokesperson "mistakenly" named Bushehr (a nuclear site) among attacked objects is a crucial, rapid walk-back from their previous outright false claim of Israeli nuclear strikes. This suggests a deliberate, coordinated escalation-then-de-escalation tactic in their information warfare, testing reactions and maintaining plausible deniability while still creating chaos. The Russian MFA's explicit warning to the USA (Поддубный 11:31:01Z) is a direct attempt to deter US involvement in the fabricated Iran conflict and demonstrates Russia's intent to use this crisis for geopolitical leverage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for sophisticated IO).
  • Projection of Strength/Normalcy: Putin's phone call with Xi Jinping, affirming mutual condemnation of Israeli actions, reinforces Russia's strategic alignment with China and its perceived role as a global power broker (Colonelcassad 11:41:35Z). The POW exchange, presented by Russia as a successful diplomatic step (TASS 11:39:00Z, MoD Russia 11:47:26Z), also serves to project normalcy and a willingness for "dialogue," fitting into their recent negotiation overtures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Anti-Western: TASS's reporting on the European Commission's difficulty in sanctioning Russian gas (11:26:33Z) highlights Western vulnerabilities to Russia's energy leverage. The termination of military cooperation with Germany (Басурин о главном 11:44:01Z) underscores Russia's punitive stance against perceived hostile nations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• RUF: Rapid escalation and then partial walk-back of false nuclear strike claims in the Middle East indicates a highly dynamic and responsive IO apparatus. The explicit warning to the US is a new direct diplomatic threat in the context of the Middle East fabrications. Their continued KAB strikes and ground assaults demonstrate an inability to achieve decisive breakthroughs but a capability to maintain pressure. The "pig as USV" video (Два майора 11:35:06Z) suggests continued internal humor or highly niche propaganda.
• UAF: Successful repulsion of a mechanized assault (Mykolaiv marines 11:27:02Z) demonstrates adaptive defensive tactics and continued combat effectiveness. Successful POW exchange operations confirm effective coordination with international partners and internal processes for personnel return.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• RUF: The ongoing POW exchange (confirmed by both sides) and training for wounded evacuation in Crimea (11:30:56Z) indicate that Russia has established processes for personnel management and is planning for continued casualties and the need for medical evacuation. The difficulty for the EU in distinguishing Russian gas sources (11:26:33Z) implies continued financial sustainment for Russia.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• RUF: The synchronized launch and then rapid (partial) walk-back of highly inflammatory Middle East narratives (e.g., Israeli "mistakenly" named Bushehr) and the direct MFA warning to the US, coupled with coordinated messaging around the POW exchange, demonstrate highly effective and centralized C2 over both military information operations and diplomatic messaging. Putin's phone call with Xi further reinforces this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: The rapid and widespread reporting of the POW exchange across multiple UAF, regional, and official channels indicates strong internal C2 and coordination for high-impact events affecting national morale. Successful repulsion of a mechanized assault also indicates robust tactical C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Defensive Resilience: Mykolaiv marines successfully repelling a mechanized assault in Donbas (11:27:02Z) highlights continued high readiness and effective defensive tactics against armored threats.
• Humanitarian Operations/Morale: The successful POW exchange is a significant morale booster for UAF personnel and the public, demonstrating that captured soldiers are not forgotten and efforts are being made for their return, especially for the seriously ill and wounded (Координаційний штаб 11:45:54Z). The wide dissemination of these images across official Ukrainian channels reinforces national unity and commitment to service members. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Air Defense Needs: Continued KAB launches on Sumy (11:26:39Z) reinforce the urgent need for robust air defense capabilities, as previously articulated by regional administrations.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes:
  • Major Tactical Victory: Mykolaiv marines repelled a powerful mechanized assault in Donbas, destroying an armored vehicle. This is a significant defensive success (11:27:02Z). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • POW Exchange: Successful return of UAF servicemen, including seriously ill and wounded, from Russian captivity per Istanbul agreements. This is a critical humanitarian and morale success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Setbacks:
  • Persistent Air Threat: Continued KAB strikes on Sumy (11:26:39Z) and previous reports of sustained air attacks on other regions indicate that Russia retains significant aerial strike capability, posing an ongoing threat to civilian and military targets.
  • Information Warfare Impact: While Russia's walk-back on the Bushehr claim shows an attempt at damage control, the sheer volume and audacity of its fabricated Middle East narratives continue to pose a significant challenge in maintaining international focus and support.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Air Defense: Remains a critical and unmet requirement, especially given ongoing KAB threats in northern oblasts.
• POW Management: The successful exchange highlights the ongoing need for dedicated resources and diplomatic channels for POW/MIA issues.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian (EXTREME LEVEL, MIDDLE EAST FABRICATIONS WITH INTERNAL INCONSISTENCIES, DIRECT US WARNING, ELEVATED NEGOTIATION NARRATIVE VIA POW EXCHANGE):
  • Middle East Diversion & Fabrication (HEIGHTENED INTENSITY, Immediate Walk-Back, Direct Warning to US): Continued amplification of alleged Israeli strikes in Iran (Colonelcassad 11:32:25Z, Операция Z 11:36:37Z). CRITICAL NEW DEVELOPMENT: TASS (11:32:10Z) explicitly walked back the claim of an Israeli attack on Bushehr (nuclear facility), stating it was a "mistake" by an army spokesperson. This indicates a high level of agility in Russian IO to test and retract extreme claims, maintaining a degree of plausible deniability while still sowing chaos. The Russian MFA's direct warning to the USA against intervention in the fabricated Iran conflict (Поддубный 11:31:01Z) represents a new, overtly aggressive diplomatic pressure point designed to deter Western involvement and elevate the fabricated crisis. Putin's discussion with Xi Jinping condemning Israeli actions (Colonelcassad 11:41:35Z) reinforces this narrative at the highest level.
  • Projection of Strength/Normalcy: The successful POW exchange is heavily amplified by Russian state media (TASS 11:39:00Z, MoD Russia 11:47:26Z, Операция Z 11:48:49Z), serving to project Russia as a responsible actor willing to engage in humanitarian dialogue and adherence to agreements (e.g., Istanbul). This supports their broader "negotiation" narrative. The lifting of airport restrictions in Volgograd (11:34:16Z) attempts to project internal stability.
  • Anti-Western/Economic Leverage: TASS highlights the EU's challenge in identifying Russian gas (11:26:33Z), underscoring Russia's perceived economic resilience and leverage. The termination of military cooperation with Germany (Басурин о главном 11:44:01Z) reinforces a narrative of Western weakness and Russian resolve.
  • Internal Narratives: The "pig as USV" video (Два майора 11:35:06Z) is an unusual example of internal content, possibly attempting to mock UAF naval drone capabilities or just a niche internal joke, but it does show awareness of the threat. The ASTRA report on the mass password leak (11:42:04Z) is a rare example of critical reporting, potentially reflecting internal cyber vulnerabilities.
• Ukrainian:
  • POW Exchange as Morale Boost & Humanitarian Success: Widespread and enthusiastic reporting across all official Ukrainian channels (Zelenskiy / Official, Oleg Synegubov, STERNENKO, RBC-Ukraine, Serhiy Lysak, Operational ZSU, Coordination Staff, Zaporizhzhia OVA, Tsaplienko) regarding the return of servicemen, especially the seriously ill and wounded, is a powerful morale and diplomatic tool. It highlights Ukraine's commitment to its people and frames Russia as the party holding POWs. The Coordination Staff explicitly mentions "Istanbul agreements" (11:45:54Z), confirming the framework.
  • Combat Effectiveness: Николаевский Ванёк (11:27:02Z) demonstrates immediate, verified combat successes (repelling mechanized assault).
  • Counter-Propaganda: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (11:43:24Z) uses a clown emoji to mock Russia's stated readiness for negotiations, indicating healthy skepticism and a clear understanding of Russian IO tactics.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian: The successful POW exchange will significantly boost public and military morale, validating sacrifices and demonstrating the government's commitment. However, ongoing KAB strikes in Sumy and the continued, severe threat of aerial attacks will maintain a high level of anxiety and reinforce the urgent need for more air defense. The exposure of internal corruption remains a concern, but the efforts to prosecute it can reinforce trust.
• Russian: The POW exchange will be presented as a positive development, reinforcing the narrative of successful operations and a "caring" state. The fabricated Middle East crisis serves to divert attention from the conflict in Ukraine, while highlighting perceived global instability that Russia can "manage." The lifting of airport restrictions suggests a return to normalcy. However, ongoing UAF drone activity over Russian territory and claims of UAF attacks could cause internal anxiety, while reports of password leaks hint at systemic vulnerabilities.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Russian Objectives:
  1. Directly challenge US/Western resolve: The Russian MFA's warning to the US (11:31:01Z) is a direct diplomatic challenge aimed at deterring US intervention in the fabricated Iran conflict and testing Western unity.
  2. Maintain global distraction: The sustained amplification of the Middle East crisis, even with internal inconsistencies and walk-backs, aims to keep global attention and resources diverted from Ukraine.
  3. Frame peace talks: The simultaneous emphasis on "Istanbul agreements" and the POW exchange aims to position Russia as a reasonable actor, willing to negotiate, potentially setting conditions for future peace talks on their terms.
  4. Strengthen non-Western alliances: Putin's call with Xi Jinping (11:41:35Z) confirms continued strategic alignment between Russia and China against Western interests, especially regarding the Middle East.
• Diplomatic Actions: The EU Commission's admission regarding Russian gas (11:26:33Z) indicates ongoing challenges in fully isolating Russia economically. The formal termination of military cooperation with Germany (11:44:01Z) is a clear signal of deteriorating relations. The widespread international acknowledgement of the POW exchange highlights a rare area of cooperation, albeit one used for IO by both sides.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Sustained Air/Artillery/UAV Attacks with KAB Emphasis: RUF will continue systematic air and artillery strikes, with a particular emphasis on KABs, across all operational axes (Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Persistent Ground Pressure in Donetsk and Probing in North: RUF will maintain high-intensity ground assaults, particularly along the Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar axes, seeking localized tactical gains and attrition, despite UAF resistance (e.g., Mykolaiv marines). Probing and fixing operations will continue along the Sumy and Kharkiv axes, maintaining pressure and attempting to draw UAF reserves. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Extreme Information Warfare Escalation (Middle East Focus, Continued Nuclear Blackmail, Immediate Retractions, Direct US Warnings, Negotiation Push): Russia's IO apparatus will continue its dangerous strategy of fabricating and amplifying Middle East narratives. Expect a continuation of rapid escalation-then-de-escalation tactics within the IO, testing global reactions to extreme claims and then pulling back. The direct warning to the US will be a key IO theme. Concurrently, Russia will strongly push the narrative of its readiness for "negotiations," leveraging the recent POW exchange and "Istanbul agreements" to portray itself as a responsible party seeking dialogue while attempting to put pressure on Ukraine and its allies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Preparations for Southern Front Reinforcement: RUF will likely continue training and force regeneration in occupied Crimea, preparing to rotate forces and reinforce operations on the Kherson axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Coordinated Ground Offensive on Sumy Axis under IO/Negotiation Cover: Under the increasing noise of the fabricated and amplified Middle East crisis and the new overture for negotiations (which could serve as a deceptive diplomatic feint), RUF launches a large-scale, multi-echelon ground offensive on the Sumy axis. This offensive would aim for a rapid breakthrough while international attention is saturated elsewhere, and would be preceded by intensified air and missile strikes against UAF C2, logistics, and AD in the northern sector, leveraging the new Geran capabilities. The previous (unverified) claims of Yablonovka (Sumy) capture, coupled with ongoing KAB strikes, indicate persistent interest in this axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE, due to persistent signals of activity in Sumy combined with the extreme IO diversion and new negotiation overture, which could be a smokescreen).
• False Flag Chemical/Biological Incident in Middle East: Following the pattern of inciting false flag nuclear rhetoric and now direct false nuclear attack claims, Russia could attempt to orchestrate or provoke a false flag incident involving chemical or biological agents in the Middle East, escalating the crisis to a new, horrifying level. The aim would be to create a catastrophic global crisis that fundamentally shifts international focus away from Ukraine and blames a third party, allowing Russia to offer "stabilization" or "mediation." (MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE, given the extreme escalation of rhetoric and willingness to walk back nuclear claims, indicating a testing of boundaries).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 24-48 hours):
  • RUF: Expect continued air, artillery, and UAV strikes across all fronts, particularly KABs. Anticipate a surge in extreme Russian IO, especially around Middle East fabrications, anti-Western narratives, amplified nuclear blackmail (even if walked back), and direct warnings to the US. Continued localized ground assaults in Donetsk and probing in Sumy/Kharkiv. Expect amplified diplomatic statements regarding "negotiations" after June 22nd, leveraging the POW exchange.
  • UAF Decision Point: Maintain robust defensive posture, as demonstrated by the Mykolaiv marines, and reinforce areas under persistent KAB threat (Sumy). Continue coordinated international diplomatic and IO response to further Middle East fabrications, nuclear blackmail, and direct warnings, highlighting Russia's deceptive nature. Prepare comprehensive responses to Russian negotiation overtures, understanding their likely deceptive nature. Intensify counter-reconnaissance efforts on all axes.
• Short-term (Next 72 hours):
  • RUF: Continued probing and pressure on the Sumy/Kharkiv border. Potential for renewed large-scale mechanized assaults in Donetsk. Continuation of diplomatic "negotiation" narrative.
  • UAF Decision Point: Continue to monitor force dispositions on the Sumy axis for indicators of major offensive preparations. Adjust UAF reserve positioning and defensive lines accordingly. Continue to highlight Russian atrocities against civilians. Reinforce security measures against Russian hybrid activities identified globally. Prepare for intensified information warfare surrounding potential "negotiations."
• Ongoing: Continuous monitoring of global geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East, for any signs of direct Russian involvement or exploitation of the fabricated crisis.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Prioritize all-source collection (HUMINT, SIGINT, OSINT, Overhead ISR) on the Sumy-Kursk-Belgorod border region and the Kharkiv axis. Focus on identifying any Russian force concentrations, logistical build-ups, and changes in command structures that would support a major offensive. Monitor Russian troop movements and pre-positioning, and their efforts to adapt to UAF interdiction. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: ALL-SOURCE ISR for Sumy/Kursk/Belgorod/Kharkiv).
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Reinforce a dedicated multi-agency task force for real-time monitoring and analysis of Russian information operations. Focus on the dynamic shifts in their Middle East fabrications, the rapid walk-backs of extreme claims, and the direct warnings to the US. Identify and flag new, dangerous escalations (e.g., new false flag suggestions, deceptive negotiation tactics). Develop and disseminate rapid, evidence-based counter-narratives globally. Coordinate intelligence sharing with international partners on these IO efforts. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, SIGINT, Cognitive Domain Analysis).
3. URGENT/HIGH: Conduct immediate and thorough battle damage assessment (BDA) for all recent Russian aviation (KAB) strikes in Sumy and other affected areas, identifying targets, munition types, and assessing impact on both civilian and military infrastructure. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: Overhead ISR, HUMINT, OSINT).
4. URGENT: Continue to actively investigate and prosecute internal corruption impacting military funds (e.g., Kryvyi Rih embezzlement). This is vital for maintaining internal trust and effective resource allocation. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, Cyber).
5. URGENT: Exploit Russian internal vulnerabilities where possible, such as the reported mass password leak (11:42:04Z), to gather intelligence on their cyber capabilities or internal weaknesses.

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain maximum AD alert posture across all major population centers and critical infrastructure, especially Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia, due to continued KAB and tactical aviation threats. Prioritize interceptors against these munitions.
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Accelerate the deployment and integration of advanced AD systems and munitions in northern and eastern sectors in response to ongoing KAB threats. Prioritize systems capable of countering KABs and high-speed targets.
3. URGENT: Enhance force protection measures for civilian populations, including updated air raid warning systems and accessible shelters, particularly in areas under persistent KAB and missile attacks. Publicly document and disseminate information on civilian casualties to maintain international awareness and justify aid.

6.3. Ground Forces:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain robust defensive postures on all reported axes in Donetsk (Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Kramatorsk etc.), preparing to repel sustained combined-arms assaults, leveraging successes like that of the Mykolaiv marines. Adapt tactics to counter persistent Russian tactical drone (including new Geran capabilities) and artillery support. Ensure timely rotation of units from high-intensity zones to maintain combat effectiveness.
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Develop and refine contingency plans for a potential major ground offensive on the Sumy axis. This includes pre-positioning reserves, identifying key defensive lines, conducting counter-mobility operations (as seen in Sumy), and aggressive localized reconnaissance to confirm or deny Russian build-ups. Prepare for high-intensity defensive operations in this sector.
3. URGENT: Continue and expand successful counter-UAV and counter-battery operations. Prioritize targeting of Russian artillery and reconnaissance drone launch sites identified through ISR. Leverage recent successes.
4. ONGOING: Integrate lessons learned from the repulsion of mechanized assaults (e.g., Mykolaiv marines) into training and defensive planning across all relevant units.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch an unprecedented, rapid, and globally coordinated IO and diplomatic campaign to expose and condemn Russia's extreme fabrications regarding the Middle East, its consistent use of nuclear blackmail, and especially its dynamic and deceptive tactics of escalation and retraction.
   • Explicitly debunk all false claims (e.g., specific Tel Aviv damage, stock exchange strikes, antisemitic narratives, nuclear incident warnings, Israeli nuclear strikes), highlighting Russia's intentional manipulation of global crises.
   • Forcefully condemn Russia's direct diplomatic threats against the US and other allies, framing them as desperate attempts to divert from their war in Ukraine.
   • Ensure consistent, multilateral messaging across all diplomatic and media channels, translated for global reach. Engage with international bodies to highlight this dangerous pattern of information warfare.
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Address Russia's new negotiation overture (after June 22nd) and their leveraging of the POW exchange.
   • Frame the overture as a likely deceptive maneuver designed to deflect from military failures or to set conditions for future demands under the guise of peace, especially given the ongoing intensified IO.
   • Communicate clear, non-negotiable conditions for genuine peace talks, emphasizing territorial integrity, sovereignty, and accountability for war crimes, to prevent Russia from dictating the narrative or terms. Coordinate messaging with key allies.
   • Leverage the POW exchange as a humanitarian success for Ukraine, emphasizing the return of seriously ill and wounded, and Ukraine's commitment to international law and its service members.
3. URGENT: Proactively disseminate verified information on UAF defensive successes, particularly the repelling of Russian mechanized assaults (e.g., Mykolaiv marines) and successful counter-intelligence operations, to counter Russian narratives of advance and internal instability.
4. URGENT: Publicly highlight and explain Russia's continued deliberate targeting of civilian areas and critical infrastructure, using examples like the Kyiv residential building strike and the Sumy KAB threat, to maintain international condemnation and support for AD systems.
5. ONGOING: Continue to highlight instances of Ukrainian resilience, such as efforts to support victims of attacks, and internal accountability (SBU actions, PGO investigations into corruption), to maintain domestic and international morale and confidence.
6. ONGOING: Leverage Russian internal reports (e.g., 81 UAVs shot down, internal resignations, arrest of milbloggers, foreign spy network exposures, conscript deaths, economic recession warnings, efforts to control Telegram, pedophilia suspect recruitment, mass password leaks) to show Russia's own vulnerabilities and challenges, implicitly countering their projection of total control and stability.

END OF REPORT.