Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME OF REPORT: 16 JUN 25 / 16:16 ZULU REPORTING PERIOD: 16 JUN 25 / 16:08 ZULU - 16 JUN 25 / 16:16 ZULU PREPARED BY: Senior Military Intelligence Analyst, Eastern European Warfare Desk CLASSIFICATION: TOP SECRET // ORCON // NOFORN

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Ukraine Operational Area:
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolshchyna): Serhiy Lysak (Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast Administration) reports continued heavy shelling by UAVs and artillery on Nikopol, Marhanets, and villages in Pokrovska and Chervonohryhorivska Hromadas. Imagery confirms damage to civilian structures, including a garage, likely from small arms fire. This indicates continued Russian pressure on civilian areas across the Dnipro River. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for shelling, HIGH for BDA of civilian structures).
  • Kherson Oblast: ASTRA reports a teenager wounded as a result of shelling in Kherson. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air raid alert cancelled. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Video from Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration shows President Zelenskyy's diplomatic activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Donetsk Direction (Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmiysk): "Военкор Котенок" posts a digital map, likely a Russian operational planning graphic, showing multiple red arrows indicating Russian offensive pushes into blue-controlled areas near Удачная (Udachna), Котлино (Kotlino), Зверево (Zverevo), and Шевченко (Shevchenko). This suggests renewed or intensified Russian offensive intent on the Pokrovsk axis. The "right flank" refers to the southern portion of the axis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for Russian intent as depicted, MEDIUM for current tactical reality). Operatyvnyi ZSU reports a K-2 drone destroying a BM-21 Grad MLRS. The video claims the Grad was equipped with chemical weapons, and the secondary explosion indicates destruction of its ammunition load. The event is stated to have occurred in the Donetsk region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for BM-21 destruction, LOW for chemical weapon claim without independent verification, MEDIUM for Donetsk location).
  • Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka Direction: MoD Russia releases video claiming a TOS-1 Solntsepyok heavy flamethrower system strike wiping out an AFU stronghold. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for Russian claim, LOW for independent BDA, MEDIUM for location).
  • Sumy Oblast: Air Force of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV course towards Sumy. Later reports a group of UAVs in northern Sumy Oblast on a course towards Chernihiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Chernihiv Oblast: Air Force of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • General Staff of AFU (RBC-Ukraine): Reports committee support for new military register bill, indicating continued efforts to streamline personnel management. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Internal Affairs/Occupied Territories/External:
  • Russia (Internal/Social): Alex Parker Returns posts a video implying "Хохол" (derogatory term for Ukrainian) protesting against LGBT but supporting same-sex marriage, aiming to portray confusion and inconsistency within Ukrainian society. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for post, LOW for veracity/impact). WarGonzo posts multiple images promoting "HTR" project, showcasing new tactical gear (footwear, apparel, ballistic eyewear, backpacks) and electronic devices (Garmin watches) likely for Russian military/paramilitary personnel. This indicates sustained efforts to equip forces, possibly through volunteer or semi-official channels. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports Cabinet approval for one-time payments to disabled DPR/LPR "militia." This is a continued effort to integrate proxy forces into the Russian system and incentivize service. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Glep Nikitin (likely Russian official) posts about a new football coach, an example of "normalizing" civilian life and deflecting from the war. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports a military serviceman committed suicide in occupied Makeyevka by shooting himself with a hunting rifle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for report, MEDIUM for veracity of self-inflicted wound). TASS reports that a European Commissioner stated many EU countries paid a high price for stopping Russian gas purchases. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for TASS report). TASS also reports a Russian official stating that the inclusion of singers and actresses on the "Myrotvorets" website is a lesson for those who left Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for TASS report).
  • Middle East (Iran-Israel):
    • Multiple Russian (TASS, Colonelcassad, Операция Z, Alex Parker Returns, WarGonzo) and Ukrainian (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, ASTRA, STERNENKO) channels widely report Israeli strikes on the headquarters of Iranian state television (IRIB) in Tehran. Reports claim 18 dead. Colonelcassad posts video of a man claiming to be at the burning "Seda O Sima" building with blood on his hands, stating he was on the first floor when it was bombed, and criticizing "Zionist regime." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for reporting, MEDIUM for BDA/casualties, LOW for direct Israeli confirmation of this specific target). TASS reports no Ruptly staff were injured in the strike on Iranian state TV. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for TASS report).
    • Multiple Russian (TASS, Colonelcassad, Операция Z, Alex Parker Returns, Rybar, Два майора, WarGonzo) and Ukrainian (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, ASTRA, STERNENKO) channels re-post video footage, ostensibly from Iranian state TV, showing a news anchor reporting, followed by a dramatic "explosion" effect in the studio, and claims of "Iranian missile attacks on Haifa and Tel Aviv." While presented as an attack on IRIB, the studio footage appears to be a staged propaganda piece to dramatize events and project Iranian power/victimhood. This is confirmed as a staged event by multiple sources (Rybar, Два майора), despite some Ukrainian channels presenting it as a real event. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video content, HIGH for determination of staged nature, HIGH for propaganda intent).
    • Alex Parker Returns posts a video showing a man in front of a heavily damaged and burning building, claiming it is the Iranian TV center in Tehran and criticizing "Pyppa" (Putin) for not bombing Ukrainian state TV. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA as IRIB HQ, HIGH for propaganda intent). ASTRA also posts a video showing a cityscape with a large plume of smoke, captioned "Consequences of the attack on Tehran." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, LOW for specific BDA, MEDIUM for general location).
    • TASS reports Israel confirms striking "military targets" in Tehran, but does not explicitly confirm the IRIB HQ. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for TASS report, LOW for specific target verification).
    • TASS also reports Ruptly (Russian state-owned news agency) staff in Tehran received warning of an Israeli strike on a residential area near their bureau and evacuated. This indicates continued Israeli targeting in Tehran, and highlights Russian media presence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Операция Z (Voyenkor Rus Vesny) posts videos and images of an Iranian military officer warning Israeli residents, particularly in Tel Aviv, to evacuate, stating "occupied territories" will become uninhabitable. This is clearly a psychological warfare operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Alex Parker Returns claims Iran is preparing for the "most massive and intensive missile strike in history on Israeli territory," using "newest missiles," and expresses fear. This is an attempt to sensationalize the threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • RBC-Ukraine claims Iran is preparing to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for report, LOW for verification of Iranian intent).
  • NATO/Baltic Sea: Два майора posts multiple photos and captions claiming a new NATO MBEC (Maritime Base with Unmanned Surface Vessels) with drones is undergoing testing in the Baltic Sea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for post, LOW for veracity/specifics of NATO system).
• Information Operations (IO) & Narratives:
  • Russian Anti-Ukraine/Anti-Western: Alex Parker Returns' video depicting a "confused" Ukrainian protester attempts to sow internal discord and delegitimize Ukrainian social movements. WarGonzo's promotion of "HTR" (likely fundraising/supply project) aims to showcase resilience and capability. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" news of payments to disabled DPR/LPR militia seeks to legitimize these forces and project state support. The widespread, coordinated amplification of the staged Iranian TV "attack" video by Russian channels (TASS, Colonelcassad, Операция Z, Alex Parker Returns, Rybar, Два майора, WarGonzo) aims to inflate Iranian capabilities, portray Israel as an aggressor, and continue diverting global attention. Colonelcassad and Военкор Котенок's claims of 18 dead at IRIB HQ are designed to sensationalize and demonize Israel. Alex Parker Returns' video on Ukrainian bodies being "cut up" and "mixed with Russian bodies" is a continuation of the false narrative from the previous reporting period, explicitly aimed at demoralizing Ukrainians and delegitimizing Ukrainian casualty reporting. Alex Parker Returns' criticism of Putin for not bombing Ukrainian state TV, contrasting him with Israel, is a new internal Russian criticism aiming to portray Putin as soft. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операция Z's (Voyenkor Rus Vesny) "evacuation warning" to Israelis is clear psychological warfare. The TASS report on Myrotvorets website listings aims to intimidate Russian artists who have left the country. "Воин DV" posts video claiming successful drone strike on AFU dugout, demonstrating Russian tactical effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Ukrainian Counter-Narratives/Resilience: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows Ukrainian operators testing 3D-printed drone munitions, demonstrating innovation and adaptation. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a photo encouraging mutual support among soldiers ("Help and support for brothers-in-arms"). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ promotes recruitment, addressing those who "don't know where to start." РБК-Україна reports legislative support for a military register, emphasizing institutional strengthening. STERNENKO posts a video of an FPV drone conducting reconnaissance, with the caption "No Russian drone will fly unpunished in our sky!", projecting confidence in air defense. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights Russian modernization of nuclear bases in Belarus, Kaliningrad, and the Arctic, raising awareness of the long-term strategic threat. Ukrainian channels (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, ASTRA, STERNENKO) also amplify the Iranian TV "strike" (even if staged), possibly to highlight instability in the Middle East as a global concern or to demonstrate Israeli reach, or in some cases to uncritically present the Russian/Iranian narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of POWs) issues an "important appeal to families of POWs and missing persons," indicating continued humanitarian efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). DeepState UA posts an image on education and profession choice, likely a domestic messaging effort. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). President Zelenskyy posts a video of his meeting with Austrian Chancellor, emphasizing sanctions against Russia and Austria's willingness to mediate. This signals continued international diplomatic support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO appeals for donations for "rusorez" (likely a reference to weapons/drones to cut Russians). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations:
  • Images from Nikopolshchyna show clear daylight conditions, suitable for drone and artillery operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Videos of drone strikes and protests show clear weather. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Videos from Tehran show clear urban conditions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.2. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces: Actively developing and testing new drone munitions. Maintaining defensive posture and engaging in legislative efforts to enhance military administration. Continuing to address humanitarian aspects of the conflict (POWs, missing persons). Actively conducting reconnaissance with FPV drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). K-2 drone unit successfully destroyed a BM-21 Grad. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Acknowledged a change in command for OTU "Donetsk" (Nikoliuk replaces Tarnavsky). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Air Force of Ukraine is tracking enemy UAVs in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Forces: Continuing artillery and UAV attacks on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Kherson. Displaying intent for renewed ground offensives on the Pokrovsk axis. Employing TOS-1 Solntsepyok systems on Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka axis. Sustaining drone operations against AFU dugouts. Intensifying internal social support for military personnel (payments to disabled militia, procurement of gear through non-state channels). Maintaining a sophisticated and rapidly adaptable information warfare apparatus, heavily engaged in the Middle East narrative and now incorporating more radicalized ideological elements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Russian MoD released video of "Geran UAVs in action," showing successful strikes on military targets, indicating continued long-range drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad reports finding "masked munitions" on a captured AFU soldier's phone, claiming them to be drone-dropped, and displaying imagery of what appears to be an improvised fragmentation munition. This indicates Russian counter-IED efforts and propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Russian forces are sustaining UAV operations from Sumy and Chernihiv directions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (RUSSIA FOCUSED)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (COA):

• Capabilities (Russia):

  • Ground Offensive Operations: Continues tactical ground operations, as evidenced by mapped offensive intent on the Pokrovsk axis. Capable of employing TOS-1 Solntsepyok systems for saturation fire against fortified positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Capable of precision drone strikes against AFU dugouts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Drone Operations: Possesses and actively uses Geran UAVs for deep strikes on military targets. Continuously employs artillery and UAVs for attacks on Ukrainian civilian areas (Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson). Actively engages in counter-drone measures and IED analysis against Ukrainian drone-dropped munitions. Capable of mass tactical UAV use (group of UAVs in Sumy). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Information Warfare - Radicalization, Fabrication, Demoralization:
    • Blatant Disinformation & Staging: Capable of staging elaborate propaganda pieces (Iranian TV "attack") and fabricating narratives (Ukrainian bodies dismembered) to achieve strategic IO goals. Confirmed staging of Iranian TV attack video. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Sensationalism & Demonization: Rapidly amplifies unverified claims of high casualties (18 dead at IRIB HQ) to demonize perceived adversaries. Now incorporating more direct psychological warfare (Iranian officer warning Israeli citizens). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Domestic Resilience & Legitimacy: Continues to promote internal projects (HTR gear supply, payments to militia) to bolster domestic support and military appeal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Internal Political/Social Pressure: Capable of using state media to exert pressure on internal dissidents (Myrotvorets listing). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Logistics & Sustainment: Continues to receive logistical support for personnel, possibly through civilian/volunteer channels, as indicated by the WarGonzo "HTR" project and the "Два майора" post on purchasing shotgun shells via channel advertising. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
  • Strategic Deterrence: Continues to modernize and expand nuclear bases near Europe, projecting long-term strategic capabilities and "weaponizing fear." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

• Intentions (Russia):

  • Achieve Tactical Gains & Control Territory: Intends to continue localized ground offensives, specifically on the Pokrovsk axis, aiming for objectives like Удачная, Котлино, Зверево, and Шевченко. Intent to clear AFU strongholds on axes like Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Degrade Ukrainian Forces & Will: Aims to inflict casualties on Ukrainian ground forces and assets (as demonstrated by Geran strikes, TOS-1 use, and continued shelling of civilian areas), and to erode Ukrainian societal morale through psychological operations (dismembered bodies narrative, targeting civilians like in Kherson). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Control Narrative of Battlefield Success & Ukrainian Weakness: Intends to portray Ukrainian society as confused/disunified (LGBT protest video) and to delegitimize Ukrainian casualty reporting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Sow Disinformation and Drive Wedges: Continues to use fabricated/staged narratives (Iranian TV "attack") and sensational claims (18 dead at IRIB) to create confusion, undermine Western credibility, and intensify global conflicts to divert attention from Ukraine. Now explicitly using psychological warfare against external populations (Israeli evacuation warnings). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Project Strategic Power: Intent to showcase modernization of nuclear capabilities to deter Western intervention and influence regional dynamics. Intent to portray NATO as aggressive (Baltic Sea MBEC). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Bolster Domestic Support & Recruitment: Use payments to disabled veterans and promotions of equipment supply to encourage military service and loyalty. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Exploit Global Energy Market: Intends to highlight the cost of EU's cessation of Russian gas imports to pressure EU member states. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• Renewed Ground Offensive Intent on Pokrovsk Axis: The detailed map shared by "Военкор Котенок" indicates a specific, possibly renewed or intensified, multi-vector offensive push on this critical axis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Targeted Use of TOS-1: Employment of TOS-1 Solntsepyok on the Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka direction indicates a continued tactical adaptation to clear fortified AFU strongholds with high-volume thermobaric fire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Enhanced Deep Strike Verification: The MoD Russia "Geran UAVs in action" video confirms successful hits on military targets, reinforcing their continued and effective deep strike capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Continued Use of Humanitarian Exploitation in IO: The re-amplification of the "dismembered Ukrainian bodies" narrative by Alex Parker Returns, now framed as a Ukrainian "justification" for frozen assets, indicates a persistent and evolving psychological operation designed to cause distress and delegitimize Ukrainian claims. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Staged Propaganda for International Consumption: The coordinated use of the "staged" Iranian TV "attack" video by Russian sources, and its explicit confirmation as staged by Russian milbloggers themselves (Rybar, Два майора), highlights a tactical adaptation to create highly dramatic and impactful (though false) narratives for global audiences, aiming to influence perception of the Iran-Israel conflict and divert attention. This also includes the explicit psychological warfare campaign against Israeli civilians. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Explicit Nuclear Modernization as Deterrent: The SVT report (via ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) on Russian nuclear base modernization indicates a long-term strategic adaptation focusing on explicit deterrence and projection of power. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Internal Critique of Putin's Conduct: Alex Parker Returns' criticism of Putin for not bombing Ukrainian state media (as Israel allegedly did to Iranian IRIB) is a new adaptation, showing a willingness within pro-war channels to criticize perceived leniency. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Crowdfunding for Tactical Equipment: "Два майора" publicly appealing for funds to purchase shotgun shells via channel advertising points to an ongoing tactical adaptation for sourcing equipment, potentially bypassing official channels. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• WarGonzo's "HTR" project, showcasing large quantities of new tactical gear (boots, ballistic eyewear, clothing, backpacks, Garmin watches), suggests that while systemic military procurement may have shortfalls, volunteer or semi-official channels are actively contributing to equipping Russian personnel. This indicates an adaptive, decentralized sustainment model, but could also point to a reliance on non-state actors for certain equipment types. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
• The continued reliance on drone strikes and artillery in Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson indicates ongoing supply of these munitions. The use of TOS-1 on Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka axis indicates continued availability of these specialized systems and their thermobaric ammunition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• "Два майора" fundraising for 1,300 shotgun shells indicates either a specific, localized need for this type of ammunition (possibly for anti-drone use) or continued reliance on supplementary funding for tactical consumables. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• Russian Military C2: Continues to direct deep strike operations (Geran UAVs) and tactical ground operations on specific axes (Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka). The detailed map indicates a structured planning process. Directs UAV operations in Sumy/Chernihiv. Directs targeted drone strikes on AFU dugouts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian IO C2: Remains highly effective, coordinating the rapid and widespread dissemination of sensationalized and fabricated narratives (Iranian TV "attack," 18 dead, dismembered bodies, Israeli evacuation warnings) across multiple milblogger and state media channels. Shows agility in adapting narratives based on global events, including internal critique. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian Military C2: Continues to direct operations, as evidenced by drone munition development, recruitment efforts, legislative changes for military personnel, and command changes (OTU "Donetsk"). The POW/missing persons coordination demonstrates C2 over humanitarian efforts. Successfully directed K-2 drone unit strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Air Force of Ukraine C2 is tracking enemy UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UKRAINIAN FOCUSED)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Ukrainian forces maintain an active defensive posture, particularly in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Kherson against artillery and UAV attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian forces are actively innovating and adapting, as seen in the development of 3D-printed drone munitions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian military and government institutions are focused on personnel management (military register), recruitment, and humanitarian efforts (POW/missing persons). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian forces maintain aerial reconnaissance capabilities with FPV drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• A significant command change in OTU "Donetsk" (General-Major Nikoliuk replacing Brig. Gen. Tarnavsky) indicates ongoing adjustments in leadership and possibly strategic priorities on this critical axis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Air Defense elements are actively tracking and responding to enemy UAV threats in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Success (Innovation): Development and testing of 3D-printed, specialized drone munitions demonstrate Ukrainian innovation and adaptation to optimize drone effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Success (Tactical Reconnaissance): Continued FPV drone reconnaissance (STERNENKO video) maintains situational awareness and targeting capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Success (Precision Strike): K-2 drone unit successfully destroyed a Russian BM-21 Grad MLRS. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Success (Governance & Resilience): Progress on the military personnel register bill and continued POW/missing persons coordination demonstrate robust governance and national resilience. Diplomatic engagement by President Zelenskyy (Austria visit) indicates continued international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Setback (Enemy Shelling/UAVs): Dnipropetrovsk Oblast continues to endure artillery and UAV attacks on civilian areas. Kherson experienced shelling wounding a teenager. This indicates ongoing pressure and a need for improved layered defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Setback (IO/Demoralization): The persistent Russian narrative about dismembered Ukrainian bodies, framed as a psychological operation, remains a significant challenge to counter and can cause distress among the population. The widespread and increasingly radicalized Russian IO is a continuous challenge. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Setback (Enemy Deep Strikes): While not explicitly in this reporting period, the previous ISR reported successful Russian deep strikes on Ukrainian C2 and logistics. The new "Geran" video confirms continued Russian capability, emphasizing the persistent vulnerability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The confirmed use of TOS-1 on Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka axis indicates a continued threat from high-impact thermobaric systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Setback (Force Morale): The reported suicide of a military serviceman in occupied Makeyevka, if due to combat-related stress or conditions, could indicate a broader mental health challenge for forces under occupation. (CONFIDENCE: LOW, pending more data).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• The continued shelling of Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson highlights the need for robust counter-battery fire, effective short-range air defense, and hardened civilian protection measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• The innovation in 3D-printed munitions points to a need for continued support for local production capabilities and advanced drone technologies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• The enduring Russian IO campaigns, particularly those targeting morale and legitimacy (dismembered bodies), necessitate sustained and adaptive counter-disinformation capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Continued international diplomatic engagement and support, as exemplified by President Zelenskyy's visit to Austria, remains a critical resource for sustaining the defense effort. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian Narratives:
  • Global Diversion/Anti-Western: The coordinated amplification of the "Israeli strike on Iranian TV" story, especially the staged studio explosion video (now confirmed as staged by Russian sources), is a major IO push. It aims to (a) inflate Iran's perceived military action/victimhood, (b) demonize Israel, and (c) crucially, divert global media and diplomatic attention from Ukraine to the Middle East, while linking Russia to a "global anti-Western" alignment. The claims of "18 dead" are part of this sensationalization. The video of the Iranian military officer warning Israeli civilians to evacuate is a clear, aggressive psychological warfare operation. Alex Parker Returns' sensational claim about Iran preparing the "most massive" missile strike against Israel further fuels this. Colonelcassad's video showing a man claiming to be at the burning Iranian TV HQ with blood on his hands emphasizes the "barbaric attack" narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Demoralization/Delegitimization: Alex Parker Returns' video about "dismembered Ukrainian bodies" is a continuation of a highly disturbing psychological operation aimed at demoralizing the Ukrainian public, fostering distrust in official casualty figures, and creating internal division. Its framing as a "justification" for frozen assets adds a new layer of maliciousness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Internal Discord/Social Critique: Alex Parker Returns' "confused Ukrainian protester" video attempts to portray Ukrainian society as incoherent and lacking clear values, aimed at undermining national unity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns' criticism of Putin for not bombing Ukrainian state TV as Israel allegedly did to IRIB, introduces an internal critique that could be aimed at shaping Russian nationalist sentiment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The TASS report on Myrotvorets listing aims to intimidate Russian expatriates. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Domestic Strength/Normalization: WarGonzo's "HTR" project and "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" announcement about payments to disabled militia contribute to a narrative of Russian military and state strength, care for its servicemen, and normalization of life amidst war. Glep Nikitin's football news fits this pattern. "Два майора" fundraising for shotgun shells frames citizen support as integral to military success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The Mash na Donbasse video of the tiger cub, while benign, is part of a broader "normalization" narrative for occupied territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). "Воин DV" video showing a successful drone strike on an AFU dugout supports the narrative of Russian tactical effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Strategic Deterrence Narrative: The amplification of the SVT report on Russian nuclear base modernization by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (while not a Russian source) serves Russia's long-term goal of projecting strategic power and "weaponizing fear" towards Europe and NATO. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). "Два майора" posts on a new NATO MBEC in the Baltic Sea aim to portray NATO as an aggressive threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Anti-EU/Western Economic: TASS reports highlighting the high price paid by EU countries for stopping Russian gas purchases aim to sow discord within the EU and pressure for a change in policy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • US Political Interference/Isolationist Appeal: ASTRA and RBC-Ukraine amplifying Trump's statement that the war wouldn't have happened if Russia wasn't excluded from G8, aims to cultivate isolationist/pro-Russian sentiment in the US and undermine support for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian Counter-Narratives:
  • Innovation & Resilience: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's video on 3D-printed drone munitions and STERNENKO's FPV drone video ("No Russian drone will fly unpunished") project Ukrainian adaptability, technological prowess, and confidence in defense. STERNENKO's call for donations highlights continued civilian support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvnyi ZSU's video of destroying a BM-21 Grad highlights successful tactical operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Institutional Strength & Preparedness: The General Staff's recruitment appeal and the military register bill highlight the state's efforts to sustain the defense effort. The POW/missing persons coordination office's appeal shows continued humanitarian focus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Awareness of Russian Threats: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS's report on Russian nuclear modernization serves to keep the strategic threat from Russia in focus for Western audiences. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Highlighting Civilian Suffering: Serhiy Lysak's reports and images of damage in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and ASTRA's report of a wounded teenager in Kherson, highlight ongoing Russian attacks on civilian areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Countering Disinformation (Implied): The very existence of the POW/missing persons coordination office's appeal serves as an implicit counter to Russian narratives like the "dismembered bodies" claim by providing official channels and transparency. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • International Engagement & Support: President Zelenskyy's video of his meeting with Austrian Chancellor emphasizes sanctions and mediation, demonstrating continued diplomatic engagement and international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Cost of Aid: Kotsnews reporting Zelenskyy is "ready to pay for American weapons" is a specific narrative point (potentially accurate, reflecting Ukraine's long-term self-sufficiency goals) that could be used for both positive (responsibility) or negative (burden) framing depending on the audience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian Morale: Reports of Ukrainian innovation (3D-printed munitions) and institutional strength (military register, POW coordination) will likely boost morale. Diplomatic engagement by President Zelenskyy also boosts confidence. However, persistent shelling of civilian areas (Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson) and the distressing Russian "dismembered bodies" propaganda could negatively impact public sentiment and create anxiety. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). The claim of a BM-21 Grad with chemical weapons (if widely believed) could cause significant public alarm. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for alarm, LOW for veracity).
• Russian Morale: Promotion of equipment supply (HTR) and state payments to disabled veterans aims to maintain and boost morale and recruitment. The widespread amplification of the "Iranian TV attack" story, even if staged, could create a sense of Russian influence in global affairs, boosting nationalist pride. The reported suicide in Makeyevka, if widely known, could indicate underlying morale issues in occupied territories, but may be suppressed. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Middle East Distraction: The intense focus on the Israel-Iran conflict, amplified by Russian media, aims to continue diverting international attention and resources from Ukraine. The G7 statement from the previous ISR on Iran's nuclear program and Israel's right to self-defense indicates continued international focus, but also vulnerability to diversion. The psychological warfare against Israeli citizens and claims of Iran's potential NPT withdrawal further escalate the situation and global concern. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Strategic Deterrence: The modernization of Russian nuclear bases near Europe (Belarus, Kaliningrad, Arctic) will be a significant diplomatic concern for NATO and European partners, highlighting Russia's long-term strategic intentions and reinforcing the need for Western cohesion and deterrence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Humanitarian Concerns: The Russian "dismembered bodies" narrative, while propaganda, could be aimed at stirring international humanitarian outrage against Ukraine or generally against the conflict to pressure for peace talks on Russian terms. Ukrainian efforts on POWs/missing persons aim to maintain a strong human rights stance. Shelling of civilians (Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk) also draws international condemnation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• EU Energy Politics: TASS reporting on the high price paid by EU for stopping Russian gas imports is a diplomatic play to influence EU energy policy and potentially weaken sanctions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• US Political Landscape: Trump's comments on the G8 and the war, amplified by Russian channels, highlight the potential for the upcoming US election to influence international support for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Austrian Mediation: President Zelenskyy's meeting with Austrian Chancellor, with discussions on sanctions and mediation, confirms ongoing diplomatic efforts and potential avenues for de-escalation or resolution, albeit on Ukrainian terms. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Intensified Ground Offensives on Pokrovsk Axis: Russia will continue and likely intensify localized ground offensives on the Pokrovsk axis, aiming to seize outlined objectives (Udachna, Kotlino, Zverevo, Shevchenko). This will involve heavy artillery, UAV support, and possibly thermobaric systems like TOS-1. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Sustained Deep Strikes on Military Targets & Continued Shelling of Civilian Areas: Russia will continue to use Geran UAVs and other long-range systems for precision strikes against Ukrainian military C2 and logistics targets across the operational depth, as well as persistent artillery and tactical UAV strikes on frontline civilian areas (Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson) and border regions (Sumy, Chernihiv). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Aggressive & Coordinated Information Operations: Russia will continue to exploit the Israel-Iran conflict for global distraction, using highly sensationalized (and often fabricated/staged) narratives to demonize adversaries, sow discord, and divert attention from Ukraine. Demoralization campaigns targeting Ukrainian morale (e.g., "dismembered bodies" narrative) will persist and evolve. Psychological warfare operations against external audiences will continue. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Continued Strategic Nuclear Posturing: Russia will continue to publicly highlight its nuclear modernization efforts as a means of strategic deterrence against NATO and to project power. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Leveraging US Political Divisions: Russia will continue to amplify statements from US political figures (e.g., Trump) that suggest a potential shift in US policy towards Ukraine or Russia, aiming to sow uncertainty and division among Western allies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Successful Operational Breakthrough on Pokrovsk Axis: Russia achieves a decisive breakthrough on the Pokrovsk axis, threatening the stability of Ukrainian defenses in Donetsk Oblast and compelling significant redeployments. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
• Coordinated Escalation Leveraging Middle East Crisis with False Flag: Russia orchestrates a more direct military provocation, possibly in the Black Sea or a border region (Sumy/Chernihiv), under the cover of a highly sensationalized and globally amplified false flag event (e.g., attributed to "Western involvement" in the Middle East, or an attack on a NATO asset like the claimed MBEC in the Baltic Sea), aimed at drawing NATO directly into a wider conflict or forcing a significant policy shift. This would be synchronized with a peak in nuclear saber-rattling based on their modernized bases. (CONFIDENCE: LOW, but high impact).
• Massive Coordinated Disinformation Attack with "Chemical Weapon" False Flag: Russia launches an unprecedented, globally coordinated disinformation campaign, combining deep fakes, AI-generated content, and widespread influence operations, aiming to completely discredit Ukrainian and Western narratives, paralyze decision-making, and incite widespread social unrest or anti-Ukrainian sentiment internationally, potentially enabling a significant battlefield gain. This could be coupled with a false flag "chemical weapon" incident attributed to Ukraine (e.g., using the narrative from the destroyed Grad MLRS) to justify further Russian escalation or a "peacekeeping" intervention. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 1-6 hours):
  • ISR: Prioritize collection on the Pokrovsk axis to verify enemy tactical intent and current positions against the published map. Immediately verify the BDA and casualty claims regarding the alleged Israeli strike on Iranian state TV (IRIB HQ), especially the "18 dead" claim. Continue to monitor for further Iranian-Israeli escalation and Russian amplification. Assess the authenticity of the "staged" Iranian TV studio video and prepare for rapid debunking. Monitor for any new "new direction" of battles from the AFU General Staff. Immediately verify the BM-21 Grad chemical weapon claim from Operatyvnyi ZSU. Track UAV movements in Sumy/Chernihiv. Focus ISR on Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka axis to verify TOS-1 strike impact.
  • IO: Immediately prepare counter-messaging for the "dismembered Ukrainian bodies" narrative, focusing on factual accuracy and condemning the psychological warfare aspect. Prepare rapid debunking for the staged Iranian TV studio video and any associated false claims of Israeli targeting of civilian media. Prepare counter-messaging for the Iranian officer's evacuation warning to Israelis, framing it as psychological warfare.
• Short-Term (Next 24-72 hours):
  • ISR: Focus on the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone munitions in combat. Monitor for any changes in Russian ground force composition or C2 associated with the Pokrovsk offensive. Assess the impact of Russian social support measures (e.g., payments to disabled militia) on Russian recruitment/morale. Assess the veracity and implications of the Iranian NPT withdrawal claim. Monitor the situation in Kherson.
  • IO: Proactively highlight Ukrainian military innovation and resilience. Continue to expose Russian disinformation tactics, particularly their exploitation of global conflicts. Counter Russian narratives on EU energy and US political figures. Address the suicide report from Makeyevka if it is exploitable for morale purposes.

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

• GAP 1: VERIFICATION OF "THE TELEGRAPH" REPORT ON US AID CESSATION (CRITICAL, IMMEDIATE, HYPER-PRIORITY, RETAINED): Independent, all-source verification of the "The Telegraph" report amplified by Russian sources regarding the cessation of US military aid to Ukraine. Assess the type, quantity, and operational impact of any such claims on Ukrainian defense capabilities.
  • COLLECTION REQUIREMENT (CR): Prioritize SIGINT, OSINT (direct source review of "The Telegraph" article for context, content, and accuracy), IMINT, and HUMINT from US, NATO, and Ukrainian sources to confirm or refute these reports. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 2: VERIFICATION OF ISRAELI/IRANIAN IMPACTS & RUSSIAN CLAIMS ON IRANIAN "HYPERSONIC" USE / AD DEFEAT / US INVOLVEMENT/TIES/BDA/CASUALTIES / NUCLEAR THREATS / IRAN NPT WITHDRAWAL / IRANIAN MFA UNSC PUSH, AND "US EMBASSY DAMAGE" / DECEPTIVE "APOCALYPSE" VIDEOS / IRANIAN UNUSED MISSILE POTENTIAL (CRITICAL, IMMEDIATE, UPDATED FOCUS, RETAINED): Independent, all-source verification of all specific impact claims in Israel and the reconciliation of conflicting casualty figures. Critically, assess the veracity of claims of Iranian "hypersonic" missile use and "new methods" to defeat Israeli air defenses, as well as claims of US Embassy damage in Tel Aviv and the shooting down of a US MQ-9 Reaper drone. Verify the claim of THAAD self-destruction due to Iranian hacking. Verify the veracity of Colonelcassad's claim of 370+ Iranian ballistic missiles. Verify claims of a deceased IRGC intelligence deputy, and the TASS report of 8 Iranian military personnel killed in Khomein. Additionally, verify Rybar's claims of US refueling aircraft redeployment and changes in communication patterns for sea-based cruise missiles. Assess the specific impact and intent of the re-introduction of overt anti-Semitic propaganda and nuclear threats by Russian state-aligned channels, as well as the impact of direct Russian diplomatic actions (citizen warnings, embassy evacuation consideration, calls for UNSC condemnation of Israel, Putin/Erdogan condemnation of Israel). CONFIRM AND ANALYZE THE RUSSIAN DENIAL OF THE IRANIAN PARLIAMENT VOTE TO WITHDRAW FROM NPT. Verify claims of Tehran residents leaving and their true sentiment. Verify the execution of "Mossad agent" Ismail Fikri in Iran. Critically, analyze the source and intent of Kotsnews' "nuclear apocalypse" videos, distinguishing between genuine AD activity, fireworks, or fabricated imagery. Investigate the meaning and implication of Rybar's "Nuclear uncertainty" graphic and its reference to the NPT. Assess Colonelcassad's imagery of "Bid-Khanak army base" for BDA. Critically assess the TASS report of an IRGC advisor stating Iran has not fully used its missile potential against Israel – verify the source and intent of this rhetorical escalation. Critically assess the veracity and intent of "Военкор Котенок" and "Операция Z" claims of "new explosions in Tehran" and the ASTRA image of a Haifa oil refinery. Assess the veracity and BDA of Colonelcassad's claims of "Israel strikes west of Tehran and in the cities of Bagheri, Chitgar, and Iranmal." Determine the direct military significance of "Операция Z" video showing explosions on a highway in Israel/Iran. Verify the WSJ report that Iran seeks negotiations with the US and Israel via Arab intermediaries. Assess the intent and impact of TASS reporting Iran is preparing for a "very large strike" on Israel. Verify "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" report of Israel claiming "full control over the sky of Tehran." Verify "Оперативний ЗСУ" videos claiming "Israel continues to strike Iran including Tehran" and conduct BDA. Assess veracity and intent of Colonelcassad's Starlink-Mossad-Spike missile "terrorism" narrative. Analyze the implications of Colonelcassad's imagery of Iranian underground drone/missile facilities. Immediately verify TASS, Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Операция Z, Военкор Котенок, Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, and WarGonzo claims of "Israeli strikes on IRIB HQ in Tehran" and the veracity of the "18 dead" claim. Critically, determine if the video showing a studio "explosion" during an Iranian news broadcast is a real-time event or a staged propaganda piece. Assess the veracity and intent of TASS's report of Ruptly staff evacuation in Tehran. Assess the veracity and intent of Operatsiya Z's "evacuation warning" video from Iranian officer. Confirm or deny RBC-Ukraine's claim of Iran preparing to withdraw from NPT. Assess Alex Parker Returns' video purporting to show a burning IRIB HQ in Tehran and confirm BDA. Confirm or deny Alex Parker Returns' claim of Iran preparing for "most massive" missile strike. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 3: RUSSIAN INTENT & FORCE DISPOSITION ON NORTHERN AXIS (CRITICAL, RETAINED, NEW FOCUS ON SUMY): Verification of reports of Russian troop movements to Belarus. Assess if the sustained Russian presence in Kursk border region indicates a future offensive push. Specifically assess the nature, scale, and intent of renewed Russian assault attempts on Andriivka in Sumy Oblast and other cross-border activity in Sumy, and the implications of increased KAB and drone attacks on Sumy/eastern Kharkiv. Verify the intent and scale of ballistic missile threat from north-east (Air Force of Ukraine alert). Critically, verify the nature and intent of the second high-speed target reported by AFU crossing the Sumy border, including its trajectory and possible origin. Verify the specific activities and units implied by "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts on Kursk Oblast. Verify TASS claims of "mass casualties" for AFU Jager brigade in Oleksiivka and border detachment in Kondratovka (Sumy Oblast). Determine the specific targets of "Два майора" video showing explosions in Sumy direction (Nova Sich). Assess the scale and intent of Russian reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy Oblast (AFU report). Verify the claimed "war crimes" trials against AFU servicemen in Kursk Oblast (Kotsnews) and determine the veracity of the accusations. Track course and intent of Russian UAVs in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 4: UKRAINIAN BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (BDA) FROM RECENT DEEP STRIKES (CRITICAL, ONGOING): Full extent of damage and operational impact from recent Russian deep strikes on Ukrainian C2, logistics, and industrial sites (e.g., Dnipropetrovsk industrial enterprise from previous ISR), and civilian areas (Kyiv, Kharkiv). Also, full BDA of claimed Russian strikes on Ukrainian dugout/UAV control point near Mirnoye. Specifically, verify Russian claims of destroying a Ukrainian UAV command post in Kherson, and assess the operational impact. Assess the full extent of damage and personnel losses to the M113 APC in Donetsk. Assess the impact of claimed Russian strikes on a Ukrainian military-industrial enterprise, training center, and AD radar. Specifically, assess the BDA of the FPV strike on the Ukrainian military truck (Ural/Kamaz), the KAB strikes in Khotin Hromada, Sumy Oblast, the HIMARS strike in Makeyevka (including convoy composition and casualties), and the drone strike on the Russian Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer. Verify the impact of the Ukrainian SOF mine-laying operation (3x BTRs) and the Ukrainian sapper operation near Bayrak village. Investigate the veracity and BDA of the claimed Russian strike on "Kyiv-60" enterprise with "two dozen attack UAVs." Determine the cause and full impact of the large industrial fire in Rivne, and if it was enemy-caused. Assess the BDA of the Su-25 strikes claimed by MoD Russia. Critically, verify Russian losses claimed by Khorne Group 116th Separate Mechanized Brigade during assaults on Andriivka, Sumy Oblast, and BDA of Ukrainian drone strikes on personnel/vehicles in Sumy. Verify Russian claims of FPV strike on Ukrainian buggy and "Ranger" disappearance from Sumy. Assess the BDA of the claimed Ukrainian airstrike on Russian MoD positions in Bryansk Oblast. Assess the BDA of WarGonzo's claimed drone strike on a dugout on the Zaporizhzhia Front. Assess the full BDA of heavy weapon strikes on Zaporizhzhia frontline villages and towns. Assess the BDA of Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian personnel on the Pokrovsk axis (STERNENKO video). Critically, assess the full BDA and operational impact of the UAV attack on "Nevinnomyssky Azot" (fertilizer plant) in Russia, including the extent of damage and duration of suspension. Verify if the MoD Russia video purporting to show "drone operators in action" is a miscaptioned Ukrainian FPV strike on a Russian T-80BV tank. Assess the full BDA of targets destroyed by OTU "Kharkiv"'s "Scorpion" unit (vehicle, Murom-M, antenna, enemy positions). Assess the full BDA of targets destroyed by the 33rd OSHP (military position/vehicle, infantry positions, buildings/fortified positions in civilian areas). Verify the claimed successful Ukrainian deep strike on Russian rear areas in Kursk Oblast (DeepState). Assess the BDA of the claimed Russian FPV drone strike on a Ukrainian T-64 tank on the Zaporizhzhia direction (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition). Assess BDA of UAV/artillery strikes in Nikopol, Marhanets, Pokrovska, and Chervonohryhorivska Hromadas (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), including damage to civilian structures. Assess BDA of Russian MoD "Geran UAVs in action" video on targeted military structures. Assess the effectiveness and potential impact of Ukrainian 3D-printed drone munitions (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС). Analyze the content of the claimed "masked munitions" found on a captured AFU soldier (Colonelcassad) for its actual military utility and threat. Immediately verify the claim of chemical weapons payload on the destroyed BM-21 Grad MLRS (Оперативний ЗСУ). Assess BDA of shelling in Kherson. Assess BDA of MoD Russia's claimed TOS-1 Solntsepyok strike on AFU stronghold in Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka direction. Assess BDA of "Воин DV" claimed drone strike on AFU dugout. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 5: RUSSIAN ROLE IN ISRAEL-IRAN ESCALATION (CRITICAL, RETAINED, NEW FOCUS ON "HYPERSONIC" CLAIMS, ANTI-SEMITISM, NUCLEAR THREATS, NPT WITHDRAWAL, AND DIPLOMATIC PRESSURE, AND POTENTIAL FALSE FLAGS, AND FABRICATED ATTACKS ON US ASSETS, AND JOINT CONDEMNATION OF ISRAEL, AND AMPLIFICATION OF PAKISTAN'S STANCE, AND IRAN'S "UNUSED MISSILE POTENTIAL" RHETORIC): Assess the extent of direct or indirect Russian involvement in instigating or facilitating the recent missile launches from Iran towards Israel, beyond mere amplification and narrative manipulation. Is Russia providing intelligence, materiel, or political cover? Specifically, analyze the motivation and target audience for the amplification of "hypersonic" claims, nuclear threats, the introduction of overt anti-Semitic propaganda, and the initial (and now denied) claim of Iranian NPT withdrawal by Russian state-aligned channels, as well as the impact of official Russian diplomatic warnings/evacuations, the "Ukraine for Iran" rhetoric, and Putin/Erdogan's joint condemnation of Israel. Analyze the impact of Russian retractions of false claims. Critically, investigate the origin and intent of the "massive explosion" videos pushed by Russian channels, assessing if they are misattributed or false flags designed to sow fear or project exaggerated power. Investigate the veracity and intent of the claim of "US Embassy damage in Tel Aviv" as a fabricated pretext. Assess the impact of Israel's internal travel restrictions and the blocking of Israeli defense companies at the Paris Air Show, and Russia's leveraging of these events. Analyze the implications of Rybar's "Nuclear uncertainty" graphic. Analyze Colonelcassad's amplification of Pakistan's stance on the conflict. Analyze the TASS report of an IRGC advisor stating Iran has not fully used its missile potential against Israel – is this an Iranian, Russian, or joint rhetorical escalation? Critically analyze TASS Deputy FM Ryabkov's statement on Iran's nuclear facilities and Israeli restraint. Determine the veracity and intent of the ASTRA image purporting to show "consequences of shelling the oil refinery in Haifa." Assess the veracity and BDA of Colonelcassad's claims of "Israel strikes west of Tehran and in the cities of Bagheri, Chitgar, and Iranmal." Determine the direct military significance of "Операция Z" video showing explosions on a highway in Israel/Iran. Verify the WSJ report that Iran seeks negotiations with the US and Israel via Arab intermediaries. Assess the intent and impact of TASS reporting Iran is preparing for a "very large strike" on Israel. Verify "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" report of Israel claiming "full control over the sky of Tehran." Verify "Оперативний ЗСУ" videos claiming "Israel continues to strike Iran including Tehran" and conduct BDA. Assess veracity and intent of Colonelcassad's Starlink-Mossad-Spike missile "terrorism" narrative. Analyze the implications of Colonelcassad's imagery of Iranian underground drone/missile facilities. Critically assess Russian and Ukrainian amplification of claimed Israeli strikes on IRIB HQ in Tehran, particularly the "18 dead" claim, for propaganda intent. Analyze the "staged" Iranian TV studio "explosion" video for its propaganda value and Russian role in its widespread dissemination. Assess the intent and impact of TASS reporting Ruptly staff evacuation in Tehran. Analyze Alex Parker Returns' criticism of Putin for not bombing Ukrainian state TV. Analyze the intent and impact of Operatsiya Z's "evacuation warning" video to Israeli citizens. Confirm or deny RBC-Ukraine's claim of Iran preparing to withdraw from NPT. Assess Alex Parker Returns' claim of Iran preparing for "most massive" missile strike. Assess the intent of WarGonzo's immediate amplification of the claimed Israeli strike on IRIB HQ. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 6: VERIFICATION OF RUSSIAN TACTICAL GAINS AND UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWALS (MEDIUM, UPDATED): Independent verification of Russian claims of "full clearing" of Malynivka (Ulyanovka), advances near Burlatske and Novopol, and Pushilin's claim of deep penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast towards Pokrovsk. Critically, verify the Russian claim of Ukrainian forces withdrawing from Komar area to Voskresenka. Verify Russian claims of destruction of AFU equipment at Novotoretskoye. Assess the veracity of the Russian-produced "Pace of Offensive Operation" chart and its data. Verify claimed "liberation" of Ulyanovka (Malynivka) and Komar settlement. Verify Russian claims of advances on Andriivka, Sumy Oblast, and any related Russian claims of Ukrainian unit withdrawals. Assess the implications of the "summer revitalization" on seven axes for Ukrainian force distribution. Verify the true tactical situation and any gains/losses in frontline Zaporizhzhia villages and towns. Verify the specific tactical situation on the "South-Donetsk direction" and "Zaporizhzhia direction" as implied by Russian milbloggers' posts. Critically, assess the veracity of "Воин DV" claims of destroying Ukrainian assault groups in the Shakhtyorsk direction. Critically assess the veracity of MoD Russia's claim of "liberation of Komar" and "mop up of more than 1,100 buildings." Verify if the drone footage in the MoD Russia Komar video depicts legitimate military targets or civilian infrastructure. Verify the claimed Russian FPV drone strike on a Ukrainian T-64 tank on the Zaporizhzhia direction (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition) and determine its BDA. Verify the "new direction" of battles reported by AFU General Staff (RBC-Ukraine), including location, scale, and specific units involved. Immediately verify the specific tactical situation on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiysk) direction, particularly around Удачная, Котлино, Зверево, and Шевченко, against the "Военкор Котенок" map. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• GAP 7: VERACITY AND INTENT OF RUSSIAN "HOSTAGE-TAKING" AND "TERRORIST ATTACK" CLAIMS / BALTIC SEA FALSE FLAG (CRITICAL, UPDATED): Immediately verify the Russian Investigative Committee's claim of Ukrainian militants taking Kursk Oblast residents hostage in Sumy. Assess if this is a legitimate criminal investigation or a fabricated pretext for further Russian aggression or information operations. Also, analyze the intent and specific targets implied by Поддубный's claim that "Zelenskyy's regime is preparing terrorist attacks." Critically, investigate the origin and intent of the Russian-amplified "fake" about Ukraine/Britain preparing sabotage in the Baltic Sea. CRITICALLY, IMMEDIATELY INVESTIGATE AND VERIFY PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY'S CLAIM THAT RUSSIA OFFERED TO EXCHANGE UKRAINIAN CHILDREN FOR POWS, INCLUDING ANY DETAILS OF THE PROPOSAL, ITS SOURCE, AND THE NUMBER OF CHILDREN INVOLVED. This is a critical human intelligence and OSINT requirement. Verify the claims made by the captured Ukrainian in the Kotsnews video regarding "terrorist acts" and "illegally crossing border with weapons" in Kursk Oblast. Assess the veracity and intent of Alex Parker Returns' video and associated claims about "dismembered Ukrainian bodies" and its link to frozen assets. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 8: RUSSIAN TACTICAL UAV SUPPLY SHORTFALLS AND FUNDRAISING (MEDIUM, UPDATED): Determine if the crowdfunding appeals for specific drone models by Russian units (VDV, Zaporozhye infantry, Paratroopers) or general "Summer Campaign 2025" fundraisers indicate systemic logistical issues or localized shortages. Assess the scale of these shortfalls and their impact on Russian tactical reconnaissance and targeting capabilities. Investigate the Avito listing of an EW system from Belgorod Oblast for indications of internal corruption or supply chain issues. Assess the impact of mobile internet issues in LNR on Russian tactical UAV operations. Track specific requests for tactical equipment, like the "Kula-4" drone analyzer and 250cc motorcycles, and assess if these are widespread needs or isolated unit-level deficiencies. Analyze the significance of crowdfunding specifically for Mavic 3T/3 Pro drones. Investigate the implications of the Russian airline engine cowling detachment on aviation safety/maintenance/supply. Verify if the MoD Russia video of an FPV strike (likely Ukrainian) implies a need for better FPV counter-measures or different FPV types for Russia. Critically, assess the implications of Colonelcassad's fundraising appeal for "assault and reconnaissance units" on the South-Donetsk direction – does this indicate systemic equipment shortfalls or normal unit-level procurement? Analyze Colonelcassad's photos of Iranian drone/missile stocks for implications on Russian supply, specifically if they imply a shift in reliance or type of drones provided. Analyze WarGonzo's "HTR" project images showcasing new tactical gear (footwear, ballistic eyewear, clothing, backpacks, Garmin watches) for insights into Russian military equipment supply chains, specific equipment needs, and the role of volunteer/non-state channels in equipping personnel. Determine what "HTR" stands for. Analyze "Два майора" post on purchasing 1,300 shotgun shells via channel advertising for implications on tactical supply chains. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• GAP 9: VERACITY AND INTENT OF RUSSIAN "TERRORIST" ARRESTS / ANTI-MIGRANT PROPAGANDA (MEDIUM, UPDATED): Independent verification of the details and context surrounding the FSB's claimed arrest of a "Kyiv agent" in Kherson Oblast. Assess whether this is a legitimate counter-terrorism operation or a propaganda fabrication. Assess the veracity of the claim regarding priests being "victims of TCC". Verify the veracity of the Mash na Donbasse claim of a Ukrainian "national battalion fighter" being "convicted" after firing on Russian troops. Verify the SBU's detention of an "informant of the occupiers" in Slovyansk. Critically, investigate the origin, reach, and intent of the "Военкор Котенок" video featuring Orthodox priests promoting anti-migrant and anti-Islam narratives – assess if this is a state-orchestrated information operation to radicalize domestic audiences. Critically, analyze the motivation and specific targets of "Операция Z"'s narrative accusing Ukrainian forces of using civilians as "human shields" in Kupyansk by placing drone control points in residential areas. Assess its intended impact on international and domestic audiences. Assess the nature and impact of the attempted murder of the former Deputy Minister of Health in Ukraine. Analyze the content and reach of the "Оперативний ЗСУ" public service announcement about suspicious packages and reporting to the SBU. Assess its implications for internal security threats. Assess the intent of Alex Parker Returns' video claiming a "confused" Ukrainian protester against LGBT/for same-sex marriage, and its intended impact on internal Ukrainian social cohesion and external perception. Assess the veracity of the report of a military serviceman's suicide in Makeyevka and its implications for force morale/mental health issues. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• GAP 10: DETAILS OF POW EXCHANGES AND BODY REPATRIATION (LOW, UPDATED): Verify numbers, conditions, and composition of personnel involved in claimed POW exchanges, particularly Alex Parker's claim of a 6000:27 ratio. Critically, verify Medinsky's claim of 6060 Ukrainian bodies transferred to Russia and 78 Russian bodies received from Ukraine, and his new projection of 2239 more Ukrainian bodies to be transferred. Compare and contrast with MO RF's later, conflicting claims of 1248 Ukrainian bodies transferred and 51 Russian bodies received. Critically, verify the numbers and specific conditions of Russian military bodies transferred to Ukraine, as reported by Ukraine's Interior Minister Igor Klymenko (mutilated, in different bags, multi-stage transfers). This GAP is now superseded in urgency by Zelenskyy's statement on child exchanges – see GAP 7 for new critical requirement. Critically, immediately investigate and verify the "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claim of Russia transferring 6060 bodies of fallen AFU soldiers to Ukraine, confirming its repeated debunked nature. Verify the claims of Russian soldiers held in "pit" detention for weeks (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники), assess their veracity and the broader implications for Russian military discipline and morale. Critically assess Alex Parker Returns' video and associated claims about "dismembered Ukrainian bodies" and its link to frozen assets, as a continuation of this narrative. Analyze the "important appeal to families of POWs and missing persons" from the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of POWs. (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 11: USE OF NORTH KOREAN MATERIEL (LOW, NEW): Assess the prevalence and impact of North Korean weapons systems (e.g., Type 75 MLRS) in the Russian armed forces.
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (imagery analysis), HUMINT. Assess the strategic implications of Russian Railways resuming direct trains to North Korea from June 17 (Новости Москвы). (PRIORITY: MEDIUM - bumped up due to new rail link).
• GAP 12: RUSSIAN DNIEPER RIVER CROSSING CAPABILITIES/INTENT (LOW, NEW): Assess the scale, frequency, and intent behind reported Russian training exercises for Dnieper river crossings. Is this a genuine preparation for a large-scale offensive, or a localized probing/training exercise?
  • CR: Prioritize IMINT (satellite imagery of training areas), SIGINT (communications regarding riverine operations), HUMINT. (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 13: IMPACT OF RUSSIAN/BELARUSIAN FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS (LOW, NEW): Assess the strategic and economic impact of continued international flight cancellations to/from Russia and Belarus. Does this indicate worsening international isolation or specific security concerns? Assess the purpose and impact of Novosti Moskvy's propagation of videos of damaged civilian aircraft engines, and ASTRA's report on engine cowling detachment.
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (airline announcements, travel advisories, economic reports). (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 14: RUSSIAN USE OF AZERBAIJAN AS LOGISTICAL/DIPLOMATIC CORRIDOR (CRITICAL, UPDATED): Assess the full scope and purpose of the confirmed new transit route via Baku for Russian personnel and potentially materiel from Iran. Is this a one-off evacuation or the establishment of a strategic corridor for personnel and/or materiel from Iran? The latest crossing of 225 more Russians confirms ongoing use. Critically, investigate Alex Parker Returns' explicit claim that "Azerbaijan closed the border with Iran back in 2020," attempting to debunk this as disinformation.
  • CR: Prioritize SIGINT, HUMINT, and OSINT (monitoring air and ground traffic, diplomatic statements from Russia and Azerbaijan). (PRIORITY: CRITICAL).
• GAP 15: IMPACT OF MOBILE INTERNET ISSUES IN LNR (LOW, NEW): Assess the cause and operational impact of the reported mobile internet issues in LNR. Does this indicate Ukrainian EW activity, infrastructure damage, or internal Russian issues?
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (local reports, social media), SIGINT (if possible, traffic analysis). (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 16: PUBLIC HEALTH SITUATION IN OCCUPIED/FRONT-LINE AREAS (LOW, NEW): Assess the extent of public health risks (e.g., cholera) in occupied and front-line Ukrainian territories, and the effectiveness of local and international efforts to mitigate them. Specifically, assess the severity of water supply issues in occupied Mariupol due to reservoir depletion. Monitor the impact of Mishustin's announced investment in water treatment facilities in "new Russian subjects."
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (local health reports, UN/NGO assessments), HUMINT. (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 17: INTENT AND IMPACT OF RUSSIAN PRE-EMPTIVE "PROVOCATION" NARRATIVES (MEDIUM, UPDATED): Assess the specific trigger and target of SVR RF's claim that "Ukraine and Europe are preparing sophisticated provocations against Russia." Specifically, investigate the newly articulated false flag scenario involving a "Russian torpedo attack on a US Navy ship in the Baltic Sea." Is this setting the stage for a specific false flag event, or a general deflection tactic? Also assess Poddubnyy's claim of "Zelenskyy's regime preparing terrorist attacks." Colonelcassad's amplification of the "Baltic Sea sabotage" claim. Critically, analyze the Russian-amplified "fake" about Ukraine/Britain preparing sabotage in the Baltic Sea, as reported by РБК-Україна. Critically, investigate the background and intent of the Russian "human shield" accusation in Kupyansk by "Операция Z." Analyze the intent and reach of the "Digital Generals" graphic portraying US-tech military collaboration. Analyze the content and intent of "Воин DV" video with narrative of "senseless attacks" and "heavy losses" for AFU, and "abandoned wounded." Assess the context and target audience for "Два майора" post claiming high state payments to non-pensioners. Analyze the content and intent of "Два майора" post with "No f***ing landing in Crimea for you, grebni." Assess the intent and impact of Alex Parker Returns' video claiming a "confused" Ukrainian protester against LGBT/for same-sex marriage. Assess the intent and impact of "Два майора" claiming a new NATO MBEC with drones in the Baltic Sea. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• GAP 18: EFFECTIVENESS AND DEMAND FOR UKRAINIAN EW CAPABILITIES (LOW, NEW): Assess the specific types of EW equipment needed by Ukrainian forces (e.g., as highlighted by 'Barny') and the effectiveness of current EW systems in countering Russian drones and electronic warfare.
  • CR: Prioritize HUMINT from frontline units, OSINT (technical analyses of EW systems). (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 19: VERIFY RUSSIAN UNIT IDENTIFICATIONS (LOW, NEW): Confirm the veracity of unit identifications provided by Russian sources, such as the "163rd Tank Regiment RF" in the motorcycle crash video.
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (cross-referencing with other sources, unit tracking), HUMINT. (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 20: PACIFIC FLEET EXERCISES (MEDIUM, NEW): Assess the specific objectives, scale, and duration of the Russian Pacific Fleet exercises. Are these routine drills, or do they signal a new strategic posture or a shift in force deployment?
  • CR: Prioritize IMINT, SIGINT, OSINT (maritime tracking, official statements, naval analyses). (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• GAP 21: IMPACT OF RUSSIAN INTERNAL PURGES (LOW, NEW): Assess the impact of actions like the bankruptcy proceedings against Timur Ivanov on Russian military cohesion, logistics, and internal stability.
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (Russian legal/financial news), HUMINT. (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 22: VERIFICATION OF UKRAINIAN COMMAND CHANGE (CRITICAL, NEW): Independent, all-source verification of the report that General-Major Nikoliuk replaced Tarnavsky as commander of OTU "Donetsk." Assess the operational implications of this change.
  • CR: Prioritize HUMINT from Ukrainian military sources, OSINT (Ukrainian official announcements, reputable news agencies). (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 23: IMPACT OF UKRAINIAN ANTI-CORRUPTION EFFORTS ON MILITARY PROCUREMENT (MEDIUM, NEW): Assess the full impact of the exposed Lviv Oblast procurement scheme (64 million UAH losses) on military supply chains and future procurement processes. Are these isolated incidents or indicative of systemic vulnerabilities? Assess the full impact of the SBU/DBR exposed 64 million UAH embezzlement scheme related to military vehicle procurement. Assess the impact of the Odessa Prosecutor General's Office success in reclaiming the sports complex on broader governance and resilience. Analyze the support for the new military register bill in the Rada, its implications for military administration and personnel management (РБК-Україна). (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• GAP 24: UKRAINIAN INTERNAL PUBLIC SENTIMENT IN LOCALITIES (LOW, NEW): Assess the specific reasons and broader implications of negative public sentiment towards local officials (e.g., Trukhanov in STERNENKO's video). Does this indicate localized issues or broader political discontent that could affect civil-military cooperation?
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (local media, social media analysis), HUMINT (local surveys if feasible). (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 25: IMPLICATIONS OF LONG-RANGE MISSILE DEVELOPMENT (NEW): Assess the potential impact of new Western low-cost, long-range missile development (e.g., Storm Shadow/SCALP "One Way Effector") on Ukrainian and Russian offensive/defensive capabilities in the mid-to-long term.
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (technical defense analyses, industry reports), HUMINT (from Western defense officials). (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• NEW GAP 26: VERACITY AND IMPACT OF RUSSIAN MILITARY VEHICLE ACCIDENTS. Assess the frequency, locations, and impact of reported military vehicle accidents within Russia (e.g., Kamaz crash in Rostov Oblast). Does this indicate a systemic issue with driver training, vehicle maintenance, or a high operational tempo?
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (local news, social media, accident reports), IMINT. (PRIORITY: LOW).
• NEW GAP 27: ROMANIAN MILITARY ACTIVITY NEAR BORDER. Assess the scale and frequency of Romanian military exercises (e.g., Prut River crossing) near the Ukrainian border. Is this routine training, or does it signal increased NATO readiness/presence in response to the conflict?
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (Romanian military announcements, local media), IMINT. (PRIORITY: LOW).
• NEW GAP 28: VERIFICATION OF AFU GENERAL STAFF "NEW DIRECTION" OF BATTLES. Immediately verify the location, scale, and specific units involved in the "battles on a new direction" reported by RBC-Ukraine (AFU General Staff).
  • CR: Prioritize SIGINT, IMINT, HUMINT from Ukrainian and Russian sources. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• NEW GAP 29: AUTHENTICITY AND IMPLICATIONS OF RUSSIAN DOMESTIC PROPAGANDA ON DISABLED MILITIA PAYMENTS. Verify the implementation and actual impact of the Cabinet approval for one-time payments to disabled DPR/LPR "militia" (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). Is this a genuine welfare initiative or primarily a propaganda tool for recruitment and integration?
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (Russian official sources, social media feedback from affected personnel/families), HUMINT (if feasible). (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• NEW GAP 30: ASSESSMENT OF RUSSIAN NUCLEAR BASE MODERNIZATION. Assess the specific scope, capabilities, and strategic implications of the modernization of Russian nuclear bases in Belarus, Kaliningrad, and the Arctic (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS citing SVT). Verify satellite imagery and expert analysis.
  • CR: Prioritize IMINT (satellite imagery analysis), OSINT (publicly available expert analyses, think tank reports), SIGINT. (PRIORITY: HIGH).
• NEW GAP 31: VERACITY AND IMPACT OF RUSSIAN MILITARY SUICIDES IN OCCUPIED TERRITORIES. Investigate the report of a military serviceman's suicide in occupied Makeyevka (ASTRA). Determine the cause (combat stress, internal issues, etc.) and assess if this indicates a broader mental health or morale problem within Russian forces or proxy units.
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (local reports, social media, if accessible), HUMINT (if feasible through local contacts). (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• NEW GAP 32: VERIFICATION OF IRANIAN CHEMICAL WEAPONS ON BM-21 GRAD. Immediately and rigorously verify the claim from Оперативний ЗСУ that the destroyed BM-21 Grad MLRS was equipped with chemical weapons. This claim has significant escalation potential and requires immediate, independent confirmation from multiple sources.
  • CR: Prioritize HUMINT (from ground units, if possible), OSINT (analysis of video for secondary effects indicative of chemical agents, expert analysis of munitions components if visible), CBRN intelligence. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

• Intelligence & Special Operations (ISR, HUMINT, OSINT critical):

  1. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION OF "THE TELEGRAPH" AID CESSATION CLAIM. All-source intelligence must rapidly confirm or refute the Russian-amplified report on US military aid cessation. This remains the single most critical collection requirement for the next 6-12 hours. (Supports CR 1).
  2. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION OF RUSSIAN "CHILD EXCHANGE" PROPOSAL. Task all available HUMINT and OSINT assets to immediately verify the details, source, and context of President Zelenskyy's statement regarding Russia's offer to exchange Ukrainian children for POWs. Gather any additional evidence of this abhorrent proposal. (Supports CR 7).
  3. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION OF CLAIMS REGARDING IRANIAN "HYPERSONIC" USE / AD DEFEAT / US INVOLVEMENT/TIES/BDA/CASUALTIES / NUCLEAR THREATS / IRAN NPT WITHDRAWAL / IRANIAN MFA UNSC PUSH, AND "US EMBASSY DAMAGE" / DECEPTIVE "APOCALYPSE" VIDEOS / IRANIAN UNUSED MISSILE POTENTIAL. ANALYZE RUSSIAN RELIGIOUS/ANTI-MIGRANT PROPAGANDA. CONFIRM CHEMICAL WEAPON CLAIM on BM-21 Grad. Rapidly confirm or deny claims of Iranian hypersonic missile use, AD defeat, US Embassy damage, and US MQ-9 Reaper drone shootdown. Expose any exaggeration or fabrication by Russian/Iranian sources. Critically, assess the intent and impact of nuclear threats and overt anti-Semitic slurs from Russian-aligned channels, and the implications of Russia's denial of the Iranian NPT withdrawal claim, as well as the impact of direct Russian diplomatic actions (citizen warnings, embassy evacuation consideration, calls for UNSC condemnation of Israel, joint condemnation of Israel). Forcefully investigate and identify the source of the "massive explosion" videos; if misattributed or false flags, prepare immediate debunking. Critically assess the TASS report of an IRGC advisor stating Iran has not fully used its missile potential against Israel. Launch intensive analysis into the "Военкор Котенок" video featuring Orthodox priests promoting anti-migrant/anti-Islam narratives – identify the network, assess reach, and develop targeted counter-messaging against this dangerous ideological escalation. Assess the veracity and intent of "Военкор Котенок" and "Операция Z" claims of "new explosions in Tehran" and the ASTRA image of a Haifa oil refinery. Assess the veracity and BDA of Colonelcassad's claims of "Israel strikes west of Tehran and in the cities of Bagheri, Chitgar, and Iranmal." Determine the direct military significance of "Операция Z" video showing explosions on a highway in Israel/Iran. Verify the WSJ report that Iran seeks negotiations with the US and Israel via Arab intermediaries. Assess the intent and impact of TASS reporting Iran is preparing for a "very large strike" on Israel. Verify "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" report of Israel claiming "full control over the sky of Tehran." Verify "Оперативний ЗСУ" videos claiming "Israel continues to strike Iran including Tehran" and conduct BDA. Assess veracity and intent of Colonelcassad's Starlink-Mossad-Spike missile "terrorism" narrative and expose its absurdity. Analyze implications of Colonelcassad's imagery of Iranian underground drone/missile facilities. Immediately verify TASS, Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Операция Z, Военкор Котенок, Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, and WarGonzo claims of "Israeli strikes on IRIB HQ in Tehran" and the veracity of the "18 dead" claim. Critically, determine if the video showing a studio "explosion" during an Iranian news broadcast is a real-time event or a staged propaganda piece, and expose it if staged. Assess the veracity and intent of TASS's report of Ruptly staff evacuation in Tehran. Confirm or deny RBC-Ukraine's claim of Iran preparing to withdraw from NPT. Immediately verify the claim of chemical weapons payload on the destroyed BM-21 Grad MLRS (Оперативний ЗСУ). (Supports CR 2, CR 5, CR 9, CR 32).
  4. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE BDA & VERIFICATION OF RUSSIAN LOSSES/TACTICAL SITUATION, ESPECIALLY POKROVSK AXIS. VERIFY IMPACT OF HEAVY WEAPON STRIKES ON ZAPORIZHZHIA FRONTLINE VILLAGES. ASSESS BDA OF UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES ON RUSSIAN PERSONNEL IN POKROVSK. VERIFY SBU DETENTION OF INFORMANT IN SLOVYANSK. MONITOR ZAPORIZHZHIA AND SOUTH-DONETSK AXES CLOSELY. Task all available ISR assets to conduct immediate BDA. Assess Russian losses claimed by Khorne Group 116th Separate Mechanized Brigade during assaults on Andriivka, Sumy Oblast, and BDA of Ukrainian drone strikes on personnel/vehicles in Sumy. Verify Russian claims of FPV strike on Ukrainian buggy and "Ranger" disappearance from Sumy. Assess BDA of claimed Ukrainian cross-border airstrike in Bryansk Oblast. Verify Russian claim of "liberation" of Ulyanovka (Malynivka) and assess the reality on the ground. Also, confirm success of Ukrainian SOF mine-laying (3x BTRs) and STERNENKO's drone-on-drone kill. Assess the implications for the tactical situation on the Pokrovsk and Novoukrainka axes. Verify Russian claimed strike on "Kyiv-60" enterprise and determine cause/impact of Rivne industrial fire. Assess BDA of MoD Russia's claimed Su-25 strikes. Assess BDA of WarGonzo's claimed drone strike on a dugout on the Zaporizhzhia Front. Assess the implications of OSUV "Khortytsia" reporting increased Russian activity on seven axes. Assess the actual impact of heavy weaponry on Zaporizhzhia frontline villages and towns. Confirm the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian personnel (STERNENKO video) and the SBU informant arrest. Monitor Russian milblogger posts on Zaporizhzhia and South-Donetsk axes for specific details. Critically, assess the veracity of "Воин DV" claims of destroying Ukrainian assault groups in the Shakhtyorsk direction. Critically, assess the veracity of MoD Russia's claim of "liberation of Komar" and "mop up of more than 1,100 buildings." Verify if the drone footage in the MoD Russia Komar video depicts legitimate military targets or civilian infrastructure. Verify the claimed Russian FPV drone strike on a Ukrainian T-64 tank on the Zaporizhzhia direction (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition) and determine its BDA. Immediately verify the "new direction" of battles reported by AFU General Staff (RBC-Ukraine), including location, scale, and specific units involved. Immediately verify the specific tactical situation on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiysk) direction, particularly around Удачная, Котлино, Зверево, and Шевченко, against the "Военкор Котенок" map. Assess BDA of UAV/artillery strikes in Nikopol, Marhanets, Pokrovska, and Chervonohryhorivska Hromadas (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), including damage to civilian structures. Assess BDA of shelling in Kherson. Assess BDA of MoD Russia's claimed TOS-1 Solntsepyok strike on AFU stronghold in Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka direction. Assess BDA of "Воин DV" claimed drone strike on AFU dugout. (Supports CR 4, CR 6, CR 9, CR 28).
  5. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION AND DEBUNKING OF RUSSIAN "HOSTAGE-TAKING" CLAIMS AND BALTIC SEA FALSE FLAG. IMMEDIATE ANALYSIS OF "HUMAN SHIELD" NARRATIVES. Task GUR/SBU to immediately investigate and gather evidence to refute the Russian Investigative Committee's claim of "Ukrainian militants taking Kursk residents hostage in Sumy." Prepare for immediate, forceful public debunking. Investigate the specifics of the SVR claim regarding a false flag "Russian torpedo attack on a US Navy ship in the Baltic Sea" and Colonelcassad's amplification, and the new Russian-amplified "fake" about Ukraine/Britain preparing sabotage in the Baltic Sea. Critically, investigate the origin and intent of the Russian "human shield" accusation in Kupyansk by "Операция Z." Analyze the intent and reach of the "Digital Generals" graphic portraying US-tech military collaboration. Verify the claims made by the captured Ukrainian in the Kotsnews video regarding "terrorist acts" and "illegally crossing border with weapons" in Kursk Oblast, and prepare for immediate counter-propaganda. Assess the veracity and intent of Alex Parker Returns' video and associated claims about "dismembered Ukrainian bodies" and its link to frozen assets. (Supports CR 7, CR 17).
  6. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION OF UKRAINIAN COMMAND CHANGE (OTU "DONETSK"). Immediately confirm the reported replacement of OTU "Donetsk" commander (General-Major Nikoliuk replacing Tarnavsky). Assess the reasons and potential operational implications of this change. (Supports CR 22).
  7. URGENT: VERIFY RUSSIAN "TERRORIST" ARRESTS IN KHERSON AND UKRAINIAN UAV C2 DESTRUCTION CLAIM, AND "PRIEST" NARRATIVES. Assess the veracity of FSB claims regarding the detained "Kyiv agent" and MoD claims of destroyed UAV C2 to determine if it is a legitimate operation or a propaganda pretext. Investigate the claims regarding priests and TCC. Verify the veracity of the Mash na Donbasse claim of a Ukrainian "national battalion fighter" being "convicted" after firing on Russian troops. Assess the nature and impact of the attempted murder of the former Deputy Minister of Health in Ukraine. Assess the nature and impact of the "Оперативний ЗСУ" public service announcement about suspicious packages and reporting to the SBU, and determine if it signals increased Russian subversion efforts. Assess the intent of Alex Parker Returns' video claiming a "confused" Ukrainian protester against LGBT/for same-sex marriage, and its intended impact on internal Ukrainian social cohesion and external perception. Assess the veracity of the report of a military serviceman's suicide in Makeyevka and its implications for force morale/mental health issues. (Supports CR 4, CR 9, CR 31).
  8. CRITICAL PRIORITY: INTENSIFY ISR ON POKROVSK, KHARKIV-KUPYANSK, SUMY, DNIPROPETROVSK, KRAMATORSK, ZAPORIZHZHIA AXES, AND NORTHERN BORDER WITH BELARUS, AND DNIEPER RIVER. Maintain continuous monitoring for any signs of Russian force buildup or offensive preparations. Increase monitoring of Russian riverine activity on the Dnieper. Increase ISR focus on the Sumy axis due to renewed assault attempts and KAB/drone strikes and eastern Kharkiv due to KAB strikes. Monitor for any unit identifications, such as the "163rd Tank Regiment RF." Intensify monitoring of heavy weaponry usage in Zaporizhzhia frontline villages and for ballistic missile launches from the north-east. Monitor Russian milblogger posts about these areas. Critically, analyze the second high-speed target reported by AFU crossing the Sumy border; determine its nature (missile, drone, aircraft) and precise trajectory. Continue to monitor "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" for specific activities/units in Kursk Oblast. Verify TASS claims of "mass casualties" for AFU Jager brigade in Oleksiivka and border detachment in Kondratovka (Sumy Oblast). Determine the specific targets of "Два майора" video showing explosions in Sumy direction (Nova Sich). Intensify monitoring of Russian reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy Oblast (AFU report). Immediately focus ISR on the "new direction" of battles reported by AFU General Staff (RBC-Ukraine). Immediately focus ISR on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiysk) direction to verify enemy tactical intent and current positions against the "Военкор Котенок" map. Track course and intent of Russian UAVs in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. Intensify ISR on Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka axis for TOS-1 activity. (Supports CR 3, CR 6, CR 12, CR 19, CR 28).
  9. URGENT: ASSESS BDA OF RECENT C2/LOGISTICS/INDUSTRIAL/CIVILIAN STRIKES. GUR/SBU to conduct immediate, granular battle damage assessment (BDA) for the Kyiv civilian damage, Oryol strikes, Kharkiv strikes, Khotin Hromada strikes, and other recent deep strikes. Identify systemic vulnerabilities and develop immediate counter-measures. Focus on Nevinnomyssky Azot. Focus on BDA of UAV/artillery strikes in Nikopol, Marhanets, Pokrovska, and Chervonohryhorivska Hromadas (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). Assess BDA of shelling in Kherson. Assess BDA of Russian MoD "Geran UAVs in action" video on targeted military structures. Assess the effectiveness and potential impact of Ukrainian 3D-printed drone munitions (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС). Analyze the content of the claimed "masked munitions" found on a captured AFU soldier (Colonelcassad) for its actual military utility and threat. (Supports CR 4).
  10. IMMEDIATE: MONITOR AND EXPLOIT RUSSIAN IO NARRATIVES (ESPECIALLY ON WESTERN AID CESSATION, MIDDLE EAST "HYPERSONIC" CLAIMS / "US INVOLVEMENT/TIES/BDA/CASUALTIES," NUCLEAR THREATS, IRAN NPT WITHDRAWAL (AND ITS DENIAL), "UKRAINIAN LOSSES," AND EXPLICIT ANTI-SEMITISM, AND POTENTIAL FALSE FLAG EXPLOSION VIDEOS, AND "HOSTAGE-TAKING" CLAIMS, AND "US EMBASSY DAMAGE" CLAIMS, AND MANIPULATED BODY EXCHANGE NUMBERS, AND MAXIMALIST DEMANDS, AND PRE-EMPTIVE "PROVOCATION" NARRATIVES, INCLUDING "NUCLEAR UNCERTAINTY" GRAPHIC, AND RHETORIC ON IRANIAN UNUSED MISSILE POTENTIAL. MONITOR WAGNER-LINKED CHANNELS AND EXPOSE AZERBAIJAN BORDER DISINFORMATION). Actively monitor for and analyze new Russian IO narratives, particularly those claiming reduced/stopped Western aid to Ukraine, exaggerating Middle East "successes" or "incidents," speculating on US involvement or ties (including specific unverified BDA/casualties), and the new, sensational claims of Iranian "hypersonic" missile use and AD defeat, explicit nuclear threats, claims of Iranian NPT withdrawal (and its denial), and the use of overt anti-Semitic propaganda. Also track Russian diplomatic actions in the Middle East (including joint condemnation of Israel) and the "Ukraine for Iran" rhetoric, and Iranian MFA calls to UNSC. Immediately analyze any new "massive explosion" videos for their origin and intent as potential false flags. Crucially, monitor all Russian channels for further amplification or details of the "hostage-taking" claims. IMMEDIATELY MONITOR FOR FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OR DEBUNKING OF THE "US EMBASSY DAMAGE IN TEL AVIV" CLAIM. Pay close attention to Russian manipulation of body exchange figures, including Medinsky's new projections. Monitor for amplification of maximalist demands (destroy Western weapons) and pre-emptive "provocation" narratives. Monitor narratives regarding Israel's internal travel restrictions and the Paris Air Show incident. Analyze the new "Nuclear uncertainty" graphic by Rybar and its implications for nuclear rhetoric. Monitor and analyze Russian rhetoric on Iran's "unused missile potential." Actively monitor Wagner-linked channels (like "Condottiero™") for content and trends, and expose their attempts to build credibility through geopolitical commentary. Forcefully debunk Alex Parker Returns' claim about the Azerbaijan-Iran border to expose Russian attempts to obscure sensitive logistical routes. Publicly confirm and explain the changes in Ukrainian military command (OTU "Donetsk"). Highlight the 6 civilian deaths and 4 injuries from Russian shelling in Donetsk Oblast. Forcefully condemn the use of religious figures for anti-migrant/anti-Islam propaganda (Volenkor Kotenok's video). Immediately monitor for and analyze further Russian narratives regarding the proposed "child exchange for POWs." Closely monitor "Операция Z" for further "human shield" accusations against Ukraine and "Басурин о главном" for continued destabilization propaganda against Moldova. Critically, immediately investigate and verify the "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claim of Russia transferring 6060 bodies of fallen AFU soldiers to Ukraine, confirming its repeated debunked nature. Immediately counter Russian claims of "liberating Komar" and "mop up of 1,100 buildings" with verified battlefield updates. Promote the message of humane POW treatment via the Russian POW video. Debunk the re-circulated 6060 body count from "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺." Expose the "Digital Generals" graphic as Russian propaganda. Immediately counter Colonelcassad's fabricated Starlink-Mossad-Spike missile "terrorism" narrative, framing it as desperate, absurd Russian disinformation. Publicly highlight President Zelenskyy's intent to discuss arms purchases with Trump and his statement on neutrality (2014) to maintain international support. Expose "Воин DV" video's demoralizing narrative on AFU losses as propaganda. Condemn Kotsnews' "war crimes" trials in Kursk as politically motivated show trials. Publicize the Odessa Prosecutor General's Office success in reclaiming state assets as evidence of effective governance. Publicize the SBU's public awareness campaign against suspicious packages as a demonstration of robust internal security. Highlight the reported poor conditions of Russian soldiers in the "pit" as evidence of Russian military mismanagement and abuse. Publicly condemn the resumption of Russia-DPRK direct rail links as a violation of international sanctions. Counter "Два майора" messaging on high state payments as a desperate recruitment incentive. Counter "Два майора" "No f***ing landing in Crimea" bravado with continued successful Ukrainian defensive and offensive actions. Immediately and forcefully debunk the widespread reporting and videos of the "Israeli strike on IRIB HQ in Tehran" if determined to be staged, exposing it as a cynical propaganda operation. Immediately counter Alex Parker Returns' video and narrative about "dismembered Ukrainian bodies" as a malicious psychological operation. Immediately expose Alex Parker Returns' video on "confused Ukrainian protester" as an attempt to sow discord and delegitimize social movements. Leverage the "HTR" project images to highlight Russian military equipment shortfalls and reliance on volunteer efforts. Counter "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports of payments to disabled DPR/LPR militia by highlighting the human cost and forced integration. Publicize the new military register bill as a measure of transparency and accountability. Actively counter Russia's nuclear saber-rattling based on their modernized bases. Promote Ukrainian innovation in drone munitions. Address the EU energy statements from TASS. Counter Trump's G8/war comments amplified by Russian sources. Address the reported suicide in Makeyevka if it is exploitable for morale purposes. Publicly condemn the alleged use of chemical weapons if verified. Counter "Два майора" claims of a new NATO MBEC in the Baltic Sea as propaganda to portray NATO as aggressive. (Supports CR 1, 2, 5, 7, 10, 14, 17, 29, 30, 31, 32).
  11. CONTINUOUS COUNTER-SABOTAGE INTELLIGENCE & INTERNAL SECURITY MONITORING. Continue efforts to identify and neutralize collaborators, as demonstrated by the recent success in Mykolaiv and Donetsk. Investigate the Avito EW system listing for signs of internal corruption or diversion. Investigate the Kryvyi Rih embezzlement case for further implications on critical infrastructure resilience. Address the Lviv mobilized serviceman incident to identify systemic issues. Monitor internal Russian repression and dissent for insights into regime stability. Monitor impact of Timur Ivanov bankruptcy. Analyze the SBU's detention of the informant in Slovyansk for lessons learned and best practices. Investigate the Lviv Oblast procurement corruption scheme (64 million UAH losses) and its systemic implications. Follow up on the SBU/DBR investigation into the 64 million UAH embezzlement scheme related to military vehicle procurement; assess the scale of impact and potential systemic vulnerabilities. Continue to investigate the attempted murder of the former Deputy Minister of Health in Ukraine. Analyze the content and reach of the "Оперативний ЗСУ" public service announcement about suspicious packages and reporting to the SBU, and use it to inform further counter-subversion efforts. Actively monitor for and counter Russian attempts to sow social discord through narratives like the "confused Ukrainian protester" video. (Supports CR 9, CR 21, CR 23).
  12. MONITOR AND ANALYZE UKRAINIAN INTERNAL POLITICAL/SOCIAL SENTIMENT. While not direct military intelligence, monitoring public opinion on local leaders (STERNENKO's Trukhanov video) can provide insight into civil-military relations and overall societal stability. Assess the public sentiment regarding the Odessa Prosecutor General's Office success in reclaiming state assets. Assess public and military sentiment regarding the new military register bill. (Supports CR 23, CR 24).
  13. ASSESS IMPLICATIONS OF NEW WESTERN LONG-RANGE MISSILE DEVELOPMENT. Analyze the announcement of the "One Way Effector" missile for its potential impact on future Ukrainian offensive capabilities and Russian defensive strategies. (Supports CR 25).
  14. INVESTIGATE RUSSIAN MILITARY VEHICLE ACCIDENTS. Collect and analyze data on military vehicle accidents in Russia to identify systemic issues that could be exploited or indicate broader logistical problems. (Supports CR 26).
  15. MONITOR ROMANIAN MILITARY ACTIVITY. Maintain intelligence on Romanian military exercises near the border to understand NATO's readiness posture and prepare for any potential escalation scenarios. (Supports CR 27).
  16. URGENT: MONITOR RUSSIA-DPRK RAIL LINK IMPLICATIONS. Immediately establish collection requirements to monitor the volume, type, and frequency of materiel transfers via the resumed RZD direct trains to North Korea. Assess the potential impact on Russian force generation and sustainment. (Supports CR 11).

• Air Defense & Force Protection:

  1. MAINTAIN HIGHEST AIR DEFENSE READINESS ACROSS ALL OBLASTS, WITH EMPHASIS ON EASTERN AIR THREAT AND INDUSTRIAL/CIVILIAN TARGETS, AND NORTHERN AXIS. Anticipate Russia may increase the intensity or breadth of aerial attacks (UAVs, ballistic missiles, KABs, tactical aviation, TOS) to capitalize on global distraction and the IO narrative of Western aid cessation. Ensure layered AD coverage for critical infrastructure and population centers, particularly industrial sites and population centers, and especially in border regions (Sumy, Chernihiv). Be prepared for aviation-launched munitions in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Focus on defense against drones in Sumy. Prioritize AD assets for protection of frontline villages in Zaporizhzhia subject to heavy weaponry and critical industrial targets (similar to Nevinnomyssky Azot) within Ukraine. Be alert to ballistic missile threats from the north-east. Maintain particularly high vigilance for rapid airborne targets crossing the Sumy border. Be prepared for Russian tactical aviation activity on the south-eastern direction (AFU Air Force warning). Actively counter Russian reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy Oblast. Prioritize defense for Nikopol, Marhanets, Pokrovska, and Chervonohryhorivska Hromadas (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) against continued UAV and artillery strikes. Prioritize AD for Kherson. Track UAVs in Sumy and Chernihiv. Prioritize defense against alleged chemical attacks if BM-21 Grad claim is verified.
  2. ADAPT TO WIDER GEOGRAPHIC DRONE/MISSILE THREAT & COUNTER DEEP STRIKES. Implement and refine TTPs to counter widespread, multi-axis attacks, including FPV drones using small arms. Prioritize resources for defending critical C2 nodes, ammunition depots, and industrial/civilian facilities against confirmed Russian deep strikes. Analyze Russian MoD "Geran UAVs in action" video for tactics and targeting data to inform counter-measures.
  3. REVIEW AND REHEARSE CONTINUITY OF OPERATIONS (COOP) PLANS. All units must immediately review and rehearse COOP plans, ensuring redundant communication pathways and alternate command posts are ready, given the persistent threat of deep strikes.
  4. IMMEDIATE DISPERSAL AND CONCEALMENT. Disperse all high-value assets and personnel. Reinforce concealment measures, especially for C2 nodes and logistics hubs, against FPV drones and KABs.

• Ground Forces:

  1. MAINTAIN DISCIPLINED DEFENSIVE POSTURE IN POKROVSK, KHARKIV-KUPYANSK, SUMY, DNIPROPETROVSK, KRAMATORSK, ZAPORIZHZHIA, AND NORTHERN BORDER DIRECTIONS. Prioritize strong defensive lines. Respond to increased activity on seven axes. Reinforce positions in Zaporizhzhia frontline villages targeted by heavy weaponry. Be prepared for intensified ground actions on South-Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia axes. Maintain high alert for ground incursions and probing actions from the Kursk border region. Reinforce defenses around Komar settlement, and verify Russian claims of "liberation" and "mop up." Immediately assess and respond to the "new direction" of battles reported by AFU General Staff (RBC-Ukraine). Immediately reinforce defenses on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiysk) direction, particularly around Удачная, Котлино, Зверево, and Шевченко, based on observed Russian tactical intent. Maintain defense in Kherson. Prepare for and counter TOS-1 attacks on axes like Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka.
  2. REINFORCE DEFENSES IN SUMY OBLAST (NORTHERN-SLOBOZHANSKYI DIRECTION). Based on DPGU announcement and new assault attempts on Andriivka, prepare for increased Russian ground activity and cross-border incursions. Continue to leverage successes in countering Russian assault attempts. Ensure units are adequately equipped with off-road vehicles and EW. Prepare for and counter Russian reconnaissance UAV activity.
  3. CONTAIN RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN DONETSK/DNIPROPETROVSK/ZAPORIZHZHIA, ESPECIALLY AROUND ULYANOVKA/MALYNIVKA, KOMAR AREA, AND NOVOPAVLIYKA. Reinforce defensive lines. Prepare for counter-attacks to regain lost ground or consolidate defensive lines.
  4. CONTINUE FPV DRONE OPERATIONS & COUNTER-BATTERY. Leverage successes in FPV drone attacks against Russian targets (e.g., dugouts, vehicles, personnel, as seen in Pokrovsk drone strikes) and continue aggressive counter-battery fire against Russian artillery and MLRS (TOS, improvised MLRS). Analyze successful targeting methods. Prioritize fundraising and acquisition for critical equipment like re-transmitter drones for units like "Stryzh" battalion. Disseminate lessons learned from successful FPV strikes by OTU "Kharkiv" and 33rd OSHP. Analyze claimed Russian FPV drone strike on Ukrainian T-64 on Zaporizhzhia direction for lessons learned on concealment/counter-drone tactics. Continue development and testing of 3D-printed specialized drone munitions, and prioritize their rapid deployment to units (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС). Analyze Colonelcassad's imagery of "masked munitions" to inform counter-IED efforts. Continue successful BM-21 Grad destruction operations. Be prepared for potential chemical weapon threats if verified.
  5. MAINTAIN DNEPR RIVER PATROLS AND INTERDICTION CAPABILITIES. Continue successful operations to prevent Russian river crossings in Kherson, and monitor any increased Russian riverine training activity.
  6. IMPROVE PERSONNEL TRANSPORT SAFETY. Address and investigate the incident in Lviv Oblast regarding the mobilized serviceman to prevent recurrence and improve troop welfare. Investigate the motorcycle crash incident for lessons on tactical movement. Implement lessons from the Rostov Oblast Kamaz crash regarding military vehicle safety and road conditions. Address issues of poor living conditions and disciplinary abuses within Russian military units (as highlighted by "pit" video) if possible through IO or direct contact with personnel.
  7. MAINTAIN MINE WARFARE PROFICIENCY. Leverage and disseminate lessons learned from the successful SOF mine-laying operation (3x BTRs) to other units. Disseminate lessons from Ukrainian sapper successes in leading assaults.

• Information Operations (IO):

  1. IMMEDIATE & AGGRESSIVE: FORCEFULLY CONDEMN RUSSIAN "CHILD EXCHANGE" PROPOSAL AS WAR CRIME. Launch an immediate and relentless IO campaign to expose and condemn Russia's proposal to exchange Ukrainian children for POWs. Frame this as an unspeakable war crime, a violation of all international norms, and a clear indicator of the Russian regime's depravity. Mobilize international organizations (UN, UNICEF, ICRC) and human rights groups to issue strong condemnations.
  2. IMMEDIATE & AGGRESSIVE: COUNTER RUSSIAN NARRATIVES ON "US AID CESSATION," MIDDLE EAST "HYPERSONIC" CLAIMS / "US INVOLVEMENT/TIES/BDA/CASUALTIES," NUCLEAR THREATS, IRAN NPT WITHDRAWAL (AND ITS DENIAL), "UKRAINIAN LOSSES," AND EXPLICIT ANTI-SEMITISM. FORCEFULLY DEBUNK "MASSIVE EXPLOSION" VIDEOS AS MISATTRIBUTED OR FALSE FLAGS. IMMEDIATELY EXPOSE "HOSTAGE-TAKING" CLAIMS AS BLATANT FALSE FLAGS. CRITICALLY, IMMEDIATELY EXPOSE "US EMBASSY DAMAGE IN TEL AVIV" CLAIMS AS BLATANT FABRICATIONS. FORCEFULLY DEBUNK MEDINSKY'S MANIPULATED BODY EXCHANGE NUMBERS (6060 VS 1245) AND MO RF'S INCONSISTENT NUMBERS (1248 VS 1245). EXPOSE RUSSIAN MAXIMALIST DEMANDS AND PRE-EMPTIVE "PROVOCATION" NARRATIVES (INCLUDING BALTIC SEA FALSE FLAG AND "NUCLEAR UNCERTAINTY" GRAPHIC). HIGHLIGHT ZELENSKYY'S DIPLOMATIC VISITS. EXPOSE WAGNER IO CHANNELS AND DEBUNK AZERBAIJAN BORDER DISINFORMATION. PUBLICIZE UKRAINIAN COMMAND CHANGES. PUBLICIZE NEVINNOMYSSKY AZOT STRIKE. HIGHLIGHT RUSSIAN SHELLING OF CIVILIAN AREAS. EXPOSE RUSSIAN RELIGIOUS/ANTI-MIGRANT PROPAGANDA. PUBLICIZE ANTI-CORRUPTION SUCCESSES. EXPOSE RUSSIAN "HUMAN SHIELD" FALSE FLAGS. EXPOSE RUSSIAN DESTABILIZATION OF MOLDOVA. Proactively and forcefully counter the narrative that the US is stopping aid. Immediately debunk false TASS/Russian claims regarding Iranian "hypersonic" use and advanced AD defeat, and any fabricated claims of US-Iranian consultations or an "American-Israeli war" AND the specific unverified BDA/casualty claims, including US Embassy damage, and the high Israeli/Iranian casualty figures (e.g., 370+ missiles). FORCEFULLY CONDEMN THE INTRODUCTION OF OVERT ANTI-SEMITIC PROPAGANDA, ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH NUCLEAR THREATS, by Russian channels. IMMEDIATELY ADDRESS THE RUSSIAN DENIAL OF THE IRANIAN NPT WITHDRAWAL CLAIM, highlighting the previous amplification as evidence of Russian disinformation tactics. Immediately expose any "massive explosion" videos from Russian sources as misattributed or false flags, emphasizing Russian deception. MOST IMPORTANTLY, IMMEDIATELY AND FORCEFULLY DEBUNK THE RUSSIAN INVESTIGATIVE COMMITTEE'S CLAIM OF "UKRAINIAN MILITANTS TAKING RUSSIAN CIVILIANS HOSTAGE IN SUMY," PRESENTING IT AS A BLATANT FALSE FLAG OPERATION AND PRETEXT FOR ESCALATION. USE THE "US EMBASSY DAMAGE" CLAIM AS ANOTHER PRIME EXAMPLE OF RUSSIAN DESPERATION AND THEIR WILLINGNESS TO FABRICATE WAR CRIMES AND DIRECTLY TARGET US INTERESTS IN THE INFO SPACE. IMMEDIATELY AND FORCEFULLY DEBUNK MEDINSKY'S EXAGGERATED CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN BODY TRANSFERS (6060, plus 2239 projected), HIGHLIGHTING UKRAINE'S VERIFIABLE FIGURES (1245) AND THE INCONSISTENCY OF RUSSIAN OFFICIAL FIGURES (1248). Emphasize that Russia seeks to destabilize both regions to exhaust Western resources and attention, as evidenced by the "Ukraine for Iran" rhetoric. Highlight Ukrainian successes in inflicting Russian losses (e.g., successful drone defense, artillery engagements, high AD kill rates, FPV drone intercepts, successful agent arrests, deep strikes on Oryol, FPV truck strike, HIMARS on Makeyevka, DeepState's Pion strike, SOF BTRs, sapper ops, drone strikes in Sumy, reported Bryansk strike, WarGonzo dugout strike, motorcycle crash incident, drone strikes on personnel in Pokrovsk, and most importantly, the UAV attack on Nevinnomyssky Azot.) Expose the neglect of Russian war graves as a counter to their "patriotic" narrative. Expose any internal Russian corruption and Ukrainian successes in combating it (Kryvyi Rih, Lviv procurement scheme). Counter narratives regarding Ukrainian internal divisions (priests, language use, local political discontent like in Odesa). Promote positive stories of Ukrainian veteran support and societal resilience, especially rehabilitation efforts and reconstruction in frontline areas, and public health efforts (cholera prevention in Zaporizhzhia, water issues in Mariupol). Publicize Ukrainian government's digital services for veterans. Highlight Russian demands for Ukraine to disarm Western weapons as proof of aggressive intent. Publicize President Zelenskyy's visit to Austria and planned Trump meeting as evidence of continued international support. Use stories like 'Barny' to highlight the resolve of Ukrainian defenders. Expose Russian aviation safety issues. Publicize successful fundraising efforts. Expose the Wagner-linked "Condottiero™" channel as an influence operation. Immediately and forcefully debunk Alex Parker Returns' claim about the Azerbaijan-Iran border to counter disinformation on a sensitive logistical route. Publicly confirm and explain the changes in Ukrainian military command (OTU "Donetsk"). Highlight the 6 civilian deaths and 4 injuries from Russian shelling in Donetsk Oblast. Forcefully condemn the use of religious figures for anti-migrant/anti-Islam propaganda (Volenkor Kotenok's video). Immediately expose "Операция Z"'s false "human shield" accusation in Kupyansk. Launch a dedicated IO campaign exposing Russian attempts to destabilize Moldova, using the "Басурин о главном" video as clear evidence of foreign interference in sovereign states' domestic affairs. Critically, immediately investigate and verify the "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claim of Russia transferring 6060 bodies of fallen AFU soldiers to Ukraine, confirming its repeated debunked nature. Immediately counter Russian claims of "liberating Komar" and "mop up of 1,100 buildings" with verified battlefield updates. Promote the message of humane POW treatment via the Russian POW video. Debunk the re-circulated 6060 body count from "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺." Expose the "Digital Generals" graphic as Russian propaganda. Immediately counter Colonelcassad's fabricated Starlink-Mossad-Spike missile "terrorism" narrative, framing it as desperate, absurd Russian disinformation. Publicly highlight President Zelenskyy's intent to discuss arms purchases with Trump and his statement on neutrality (2014) to maintain international support. Expose "Воин DV" video's demoralizing narrative on AFU losses as propaganda. Condemn Kotsnews' "war crimes" trials in Kursk as politically motivated show trials. Publicize the Odessa Prosecutor General's Office success in reclaiming state assets as evidence of effective governance. Publicize the SBU's public awareness campaign against suspicious packages as a demonstration of robust internal security. Highlight the reported poor conditions of Russian soldiers in the "pit" as evidence of Russian military mismanagement and abuse. Publicly condemn the resumption of Russia-DPRK direct rail links as a violation of international sanctions. Counter "Два майора" messaging on high state payments as a desperate recruitment incentive. Counter "Два майора" "No f***ing landing in Crimea" bravado with continued successful Ukrainian defensive and offensive actions. Immediately and forcefully debunk the widespread reporting and videos of the "Israeli strike on IRIB HQ in Tehran" if determined to be staged, exposing it as a cynical propaganda operation. Immediately counter Alex Parker Returns' video and narrative about "dismembered Ukrainian bodies" as a malicious psychological operation. Immediately expose Alex Parker Returns' video on "confused Ukrainian protester" as an attempt to sow discord and delegitimize social movements. Leverage the "HTR" project images to highlight Russian military equipment shortfalls and reliance on volunteer efforts. Counter "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports of payments to disabled DPR/LPR militia by highlighting the human cost and forced integration. Publicize the new military register bill as a measure of transparency and accountability. Actively counter Russia's nuclear saber-rattling based on their modernized bases. Promote Ukrainian innovation in drone munitions. Address the EU energy statements from TASS. Counter Trump's G8/war comments amplified by Russian sources. Address the reported suicide in Makeyevka if it is exploitable for morale purposes. Publicly condemn the alleged use of chemical weapons if verified. Counter "Два майора" claims of a new NATO MBEC in the Baltic Sea as propaganda to portray NATO as aggressive. Highlight "Воин DV" as part of Russian efforts to portray tactical success. (Supports CR 1, 2, 5, 7, 10, 14, 17, 29, 30, 31, 32).
  3. RAPID DEBUNKING OF MISINFORMATION. Maintain rapid response to immediately debunk unverified and sensationalized claims propagated by Russian state media and milbloggers (e.g., fabricated Israeli/US actions, rapidly escalating and unverified casualty figures, specific BDA claims, and aggressive territorial claims like "Dnipropetrovsk bridgehead" or "Sumy breakthrough," claimed "liberation" of Ulyanovka, Komar, and claims of Tehran residents leaving). Expose Russia's use of emotionally charged propaganda and anti-Semitic rhetoric, and nuclear threats. Specifically, rapidly debunk claims of 18 dead at IRIB HQ if unverified, and expose the "staged" Iranian TV studio video. Rapidly debunk the BM-21 chemical weapon claim if unverified.
  4. PROMOTE UKRAINIAN RESILIENCE & AD SUCCESSES: Highlight ongoing Ukrainian AD operations and any successful intercepts to reassure the public and international partners of continued defensive capabilities. Project local control and normalcy despite civilian casualties. Publicize formalized veteran support programs to boost morale and show national resilience. Publicize successful counter-intelligence operations and anti-corruption efforts. Publicly highlight official appointments (e.g., new Prosecutor General nominee) to demonstrate governmental stability. Promote civilian events like the Zaporizhzhia schoolchildren's sports achievement to showcase normalcy and resilience. Highlight the success of civilian fundraising for drones (STERNENKO's raffle) as a testament to national unity and resilience. Highlight successful drone strikes by OTU "Kharkiv" (Murom-M destruction) and 33rd OSHP as evidence of combat effectiveness. Publicize successful Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian rear areas in Kursk Oblast. Promote the reclaiming of state assets by the Odessa Prosecutor General's Office as a win for governance and public welfare. Publicize the SBU's public awareness campaign against suspicious packages as proactive counter-subversion. Publicize the development and testing of 3D-printed specialized drone munitions as a testament to Ukrainian innovation (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС). Highlight the new military register bill as an important step for military management. Emphasize the humanitarian efforts of the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of POWs. Publicize the K-2 unit's destruction of the BM-21 Grad.
  5. HIGHLIGHT RUSSIAN ALLIANCES WITH PARIAH STATES & ROLE IN GLOBAL INSTABILITY. Emphasize that Russia directly benefits from and seeks to amplify and manipulate global instability, and is now using potentially unverified claims and narratives of US involvement (and fabricated US ties/BDA/casualties and anti-Semitic slurs) to further this aim. Highlight the use of North Korean materiel by Russian forces. Highlight the continued flow of Russian energy revenue from the EU. Highlight Russian exploitation of EU internal divisions (Hungary/Slovakia energy block, Paris Air Show incident). Condemn the use of combined Russian-Serbian flags for IO. Expose the purpose of large-scale Russian military exercises (Pacific Fleet) as global power projection and intimidation. Expose the Russian intent behind highlighting NATO exercises (e.g., Romanian river crossing) as a means to portray NATO as an aggressor. Forcefully condemn the resumption of direct Russia-DPRK rail links as a clear violation of international sanctions and a sign of deepening illicit military cooperation. Expose Russia's modernization of nuclear bases near Europe (Belarus, Kaliningrad, Arctic) as a deliberate act of strategic intimidation (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS).

• Diplomatic/Inter-Agency:

  1. IMMEDIATE & PROACTIVE: ENGAGE KEY PARTNERS ON SUSTAINED SUPPORT AND COUNTERING RUSSIAN DIPLOMATIC MANIPULATION AND AID NARRATIVES. Ukrainian diplomatic missions should immediately engage with US, EU, and other key partners to address "The Telegraph" report on aid cessation. Seek clarification and a unified, strong public message of continued robust support. Emphasize that such narratives are deliberate Russian attempts to sow discord and undermine support. Leverage the confirmed Trump-Zelenskyy meeting at the G7 summit and President Zelenskyy's visit to Austria to reinforce direct communication and continued high-level engagement.
  2. COORDINATE WITH ALLIES ON IO STRATEGY: Coordinate closely with allied IO agencies to ensure a unified and consistent counter-narrative to Russian disinformation, particularly regarding aid, global conflict, and the new, more extreme and manipulative narratives, including the direct attempt to draw the US into the Middle East conflict with fabricated claims and unverified BDA/casualties, the sensational claims of "hypersonic" use, claims of Iranian NPT withdrawal (and its denial), and the introduction of overt anti-Semitic propaganda and nuclear threats, and the "Nuclear uncertainty" graphic. Also coordinate response to Russian diplomatic actions in the Middle East (including Putin/Erdogan joint condemnation of Israel) and the "Ukraine for Iran" rhetoric, and Iranian MFA calls to UNSC. Coordinate immediate debunking of any "massive explosion" videos identified as false flags/misattributed. Crucially, coordinate a unified and immediate diplomatic response to the Russian "hostage-taking" false flag claim, condemning it as a blatant fabrication designed to escalate. MOST CRITICALLY, COORDINATE IMMEDIATE, FORCEFUL DIPLOMATIC CONDEMNATION OF THE FABRICATED CLAIM OF "US EMBASSY DAMAGE IN TEL AVIV" AND THE SVR'S CLAIM OF A FALSE FLAG "RUSSIAN TORPEDO ATTACK ON A US NAVY SHIP IN THE BALTIC SEA." Coordinate on exposing Medinsky's manipulation of body exchange numbers (6060, plus 2239 projected) and MO RF's inconsistency (1248) and compare to Ukrainian verified figures (1245). Coordinate to counter the Russian narrative on US-Russia diplomatic meeting cancellations. Coordinate with allies to address Russian state-aligned media promoting anti-migrant/anti-Islam rhetoric. MOST CRITICALLY, coordinate an immediate and unified international condemnation of Russia's proposal to exchange Ukrainian children for POWs, framing it as a grave war crime. Coordinate a unified response to Russia's "human shield" false flag accusation. Coordinate immediate diplomatic pressure on Russia regarding its destabilization efforts in Moldova. Coordinate diplomatic efforts to counter Russian propaganda regarding "liberation" claims (Komar) and exaggerated Ukrainian casualties (Sumy Oblast). Coordinate with allies to expose and counter Russian narratives regarding Western AI development for military purposes. Coordinate immediate international condemnation of Colonelcassad's fabricated Starlink-Mossad-Spike missile "terrorism" narrative as dangerous and irresponsible disinformation. Coordinate diplomatic efforts to expose Russian military disciplinary issues and poor troop treatment as a violation of human rights. Seek international condemnation and action regarding the resumption of direct Russia-DPRK rail links, emphasizing the violation of sanctions and potential for increased military transfers. Coordinate immediate, forceful diplomatic condemnation of Israeli strikes on IRIB HQ in Tehran, especially if proven to be a civilian target, and any related casualty claims. Coordinate immediate debunking of the "staged" Iranian TV studio "explosion" video. Engage partners on countering Russia's narratives about "dismembered Ukrainian bodies" as a violation of humanitarian principles and a psychological warfare tactic. Advocate for international monitoring of Russian nuclear base modernization. Coordinate with partners to address the veracity and implications of the BM-21 Grad chemical weapon claim. (Supports CR 1, 2, 5, 7, 10, 14, 17, 29, 30, 31, 32).
  3. INTERNATIONAL CONDEMNATION OF CIVILIAN/INDUSTRIAL TARGETING AND RUSSIAN ANTI-SEMITIC/RELIGIOUS PROPAGANDA. Continue to highlight Russian strikes on civilian/industrial targets to maintain international pressure and secure further AD assistance. Simultaneously, seek strong international condemnation of Russia's use of overt anti-Semitic propaganda as a tool of information warfare. Crucially, seek international condemnation of Russia's use of religious figures for anti-migrant/anti-Islam incitement, framing it as a dangerous escalation of ideological warfare. Condemn Russia's punitive measures against citizens in Belgorod. Engage international partners regarding the Hungarian ruling party's "discreditation" campaign and the blocking of EU energy plans. Highlight the blocking of Israeli defense companies at the Paris Air Show and its broader implications. Condemn Russia's attempts to project power globally through military exercises while prosecuting an illegal war. Seek strong condemnation of Russia's heavy weaponry attacks on Zaporizhzhia frontline villages and towns and the recent civilian casualties in Donetsk Oblast and Kherson. Reiterate international condemnation of any deliberate targeting of civilians or use of civilians as leverage. Seek strong international condemnation of Russia's "war crimes" trials of captured Ukrainian servicemen in Kursk, framing them as show trials lacking due process. Seek strong condemnation of Russia's implied targeting of civilian structures under false pretexts (Komar video). Seek international condemnation of continued Russian shelling of civilian areas in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Condemn Russia's use of payments to disabled militia as a tool for forced integration and continued conflict. Seek strong condemnation of alleged chemical weapons use if verified.
  4. ENGAGE WITH INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS ON VETERAN SUPPORT & RECONSTRUCTION. Seek international assistance and partnerships for formal veteran support programs to ensure their sustainability and effectiveness. Actively solicit and manage international aid for reconstruction efforts in frontline regions like Zaporizhzhia.
  5. ADDRESS INTERNAL CORRUPTION WITH INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT. Seek international support and expertise for combating large-scale corruption, particularly when it impacts critical civilian infrastructure during wartime, as highlighted by the Kryvyi Rih case and the Lviv procurement scheme. This demonstrates Ukraine's commitment to good governance and strengthens its case for international aid. Highlight the success of the Odessa Prosecutor General's Office in reclaiming state assets as a positive example of anti-corruption and good governance. Engage international partners on the new military register bill to showcase Ukraine's commitment to transparency and modern military administration.
  6. ADDRESS PUBLIC HEALTH RISKS IN CONFLICT ZONES. Coordinate with international humanitarian organizations (WHO, Red Cross) to address and mitigate public health risks such as cholera in front-line and occupied territories, advocating for safe access to water and sanitation. Highlight severe water supply issues in occupied Mariupol.
  7. ENGAGE BORDERING EU NATIONS ON SECURITY CONCERNS. Maintain close coordination with European countries bordering Russia that are preparing their hospitals for war, ensuring shared intelligence and readiness. Engage with Romania to understand the scope and intent of their military exercises near the Ukrainian border. Engage directly with partners on the "new direction" of battles reported by AFU General Staff to ensure shared understanding and coordinated response. Engage NATO partners on the implications of Russian nuclear base modernization for regional security.