Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME OF REPORT: 16 JUN 25 / 12:38 ZULU REPORTING PERIOD: 16 JUN 25 / 12:08 ZULU - 16 JUN 25 / 12:38 ZULU PREPARED BY: Senior Military Intelligence Analyst, Eastern European Warfare Desk CLASSIFICATION: TOP SECRET // ORCON // NOFORN

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Ukraine Operational Area:
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Ukraine is actively engaged in reconstruction efforts for civilian housing damaged by shelling, with the Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reporting on operational assistance to businesses affected by attacks. This indicates ongoing efforts to restore normalcy and economic activity in areas under threat. WarGonzo (Russian milblogger) claims "Nemets" group of 291st Regiment, 58th Army, continues to destroy enemy positions on the Zaporizhzhia Front with drone strikes on camouflaged dugouts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for Ukrainian reconstruction efforts, MEDIUM for WarGonzo's specific BDA on dugout).
  • Donetsk Region:
    • Ulyanovka (Occupied Donetsk People's Republic - previously Malynivka): MoD Russia claims "servicemen of 39th Guards Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade liberate Ulyanovka." This claim is accompanied by drone video showing targeted strikes on individuals and a destroyed building, as well as a vehicle evading a strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for Russian claim, LOW for independent verification of "liberation" and full BDA).
    • Krasnolymanske Direction (Lyman Axis): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (Russian milblogger) posts a tactical map of the Krasnolymanske direction, indicating ongoing military activity and mapping interest in this area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for map imagery, LOW for specific tactical details without further context).
  • Kharkiv Oblast (Eastern): Air Force of Ukraine reports KAB (Guided Aerial Bomb) launches by enemy tactical aviation in eastern Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Sumy Oblast: Оперативний ЗСУ (Ukrainian source) reports Russia has been attacking Sumy with drones since last night, and Air Force of Ukraine reports repeated KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Front-Wide: OSUV "Khortytsia" (Ukrainian tactical group) reports "summer revitalization" on the front, with increased Russian activity on seven axes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This indicates a general increase in combat intensity. Оперативний ЗСУ (Ukrainian source) posts video from "Zigun_Mangusta" showing a motorcycle crash, implying a dangerous reconnaissance or off-road movement. Caption "Zаєзд окончєн! 163й танковий полк рф" implies Russian involvement and a unit designation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for Russian unit attribution). Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (Ukrainian Airborne Assault Forces) posts photos of artillery in action, highlighting continued Ukrainian fire missions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Internal Affairs/Occupied Territories/External:
  • Bryansk Oblast (Russia - Internal Border): AV БогомаZ (Russian official) hosts Deputy Secretary of the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation Vladislav Grib in Bryansk, indicating continued high-level engagement in border regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Moscow (Internal): ASTRA reports a Russian airline aircraft had its engine cowling detach during takeoff from Moscow, indicating internal aviation safety issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Kirov Oblast (Russia - Internal): TASS reports Kirov Oblast authorities will pay 50,000 rubles to women's consultation specialists for abortion prevention, highlighting social policy aimed at increasing birth rates. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Russian Economy (Internal): TASS reports Economic Development Minister Reshetnikov stated the ruble is strengthening and inflation is decreasing, a positive economic narrative for domestic consumption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Russia (Internal - Judicial): TASS reports PSB (Promsvyazbank) is seeking bankruptcy proceedings against former Deputy Head of Russian MoD Timur Ivanov, indicating ongoing internal purges or financial scrutiny. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Pacific Fleet (External - Military Exercises): Басурин о главном (Russian milblogger) posts video of Russian Pacific Fleet preparing for large-scale exercises, featuring warships (Udaloy-class destroyers, corvettes), the medical ship 'Irtysh', and an Il-38 maritime patrol aircraft. This indicates significant naval and air activity demonstrating force projection and readiness in the Pacific region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Europe (External - Russian Interference/IO): TASS reports Hungary could stop electricity transmission to Ukraine if the EU bans Russian oil, gas, and nuclear fuel, as stated by Péter Szijjártó. This indicates continued Russian leverage over EU energy policy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Janus Putkonen (Russian-aligned source) questions "NATO's battle to the last Finn ready to begin?", implying NATO aggression and Finland's vulnerability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for IO).
  • Information Operations/Narratives:
    • Middle East: Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports Putin and Erdogan condemned Israel's operation against Iran during a phone call, reinforcing a unified stance against Israel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Nuclear Narrative: Рыбарь (Russian milblogger) posts a graphic titled "Nuclear uncertainty" (Ядерная неопределенность) featuring an atom model, gears, destroyed urban landscape, and references to "NPT" ("ДНЯО") and "Pushing towards the abyss" ("ТОЛКАЯ К ПРОПАСТИ"). This is a clear attempt to amplify nuclear proliferation concerns and portray a global descent into chaos due to perceived Western actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • False Flag Pretext (Baltic Sea): Colonelcassad (Russian milblogger) claims "Ukraine and Britain are preparing sabotage in the Baltic Sea." This amplifies the SVR RF's earlier claim of a false flag "Russian torpedo attack on a US Navy ship in the Baltic Sea." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Internal Russian Development/Normalization: TASS reports Mishustin stated the government will allocate ~70 billion rubles over 5 years for reconstruction/construction of treatment facilities, including in "new Russian subjects." This is aimed at projecting normalcy and investment in occupied territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Anti-Ukrainian/Anti-Western Sentiment: Alex Parker Returns posts a screenshot from "Leonid Volkov" with the caption "You don't understand, it's different! And it's always like that with them," mocking perceived Western hypocrisy or double standards. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations:

• Continued KAB and drone attacks on Sumy and eastern Kharkiv indicate weather conditions remain suitable for extensive aerial operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's focus on reconstruction of homes damaged by "shelling" and "full-scale invasion" indicates that past environmental impacts of conflict are being addressed, but implies continued vulnerability to such damage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• The discussion of Russian government investment in water treatment facilities, including in occupied territories, hints at infrastructure challenges, some of which may be conflict-related, though framed as domestic development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces: Actively engaging Russian forces on multiple axes, as evidenced by increased activity on seven directions. Ukrainian artillery is conducting fire missions (Airborne Assault Forces). Ukrainian regional administrations are focused on reconstruction and aid to businesses affected by strikes, demonstrating a focus on civilian resilience and recovery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Forces: Maintaining offensive pressure, claiming "liberation" of Ulyanovka (Malynivka), and conducting sustained aerial attacks (KABs, drones) on Sumy and eastern Kharkiv. Russian forces are also showcasing large-scale naval exercises (Pacific Fleet) to project global power. Russia's internal leadership continues to visit border regions (Bryansk Oblast) and project economic stability domestically. Russian state and milblogger channels are heavily engaged in IO, particularly amplifying nuclear threats and false flag pretexts (Baltic Sea sabotage). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The identification of "163rd Tank Regiment RF" in a video of a motorcycle crash, if accurate, provides specific unit identification for elements operating on the front. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (RUSSIA FOCUSED)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (COA):

• Capabilities (Russia):

  • Ground Offensive: Demonstrated capability for localized advances and claimed "liberation" of settlements like Ulyanovka. OSUV "Khortytsia" confirms increased Russian activity on seven axes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Air Power/Deep Strike: Continues to employ tactical aviation for KAB launches (Sumy, eastern Kharkiv) and drone strikes (Zaporizhzhia, Sumy) against Ukrainian positions and infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Naval & Air Projection: Large-scale Pacific Fleet exercises, involving diverse naval vessels and maritime patrol aircraft, demonstrate Russia's capability for significant force projection and combined arms drills far from the Ukraine theater. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Information Warfare - Nuclear Escalation, False Flags, Economic Narratives, Diversion, Blame Shifting:
    • Nuclear Escalation Narrative (CRITICAL - NEW LEVEL): Rybar's "Nuclear uncertainty" graphic, explicitly referencing NPT and "pushing towards the abyss," signifies a new and highly dangerous escalation of Russian IO regarding nuclear threats. This is a direct attempt to instill fear and pressure international actors by suggesting an imminent global nuclear crisis, possibly tied to Western involvement in Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • False Flag Operations (Baltic Sea): Colonelcassad's amplification of "Ukraine and Britain preparing sabotage in the Baltic Sea" solidifies the SVR RF's earlier false flag claim, potentially setting conditions for a future manufactured incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Economic Stabilization Narrative: TASS reports on ruble strengthening and inflation decrease, and Mishustin's announcement of infrastructure investment, are designed to project stability and normalcy domestically, countering the effects of sanctions and war. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Middle East Alignment: Putin and Erdogan's joint condemnation of Israel's operation against Iran further solidifies Russia's diplomatic alignment against Western-backed positions in the Middle East, aimed at demonstrating a broad anti-Western coalition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Exploiting EU Divisions: Szijjártó's statement about Hungary stopping electricity to Ukraine if the EU bans Russian energy highlights Russia's continued success in exploiting divisions within the EU. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Anti-Western Blame Shifting: Alex Parker Returns' post mocking Western "hypocrisy" aims to deflect criticism and undermine Western moral authority. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Internal Control & Purges: The bankruptcy proceedings against former Deputy MoD Timur Ivanov suggest ongoing internal purges or efforts to root out corruption within the defense establishment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Social Engineering: Kirov Oblast's abortion prevention payments indicate a state-led effort to address demographic decline through social engineering. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Tactical Unit Identification: The mention of "163rd Tank Regiment RF" in an incident video offers specific unit presence, though the context is a crash, not direct combat. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

• Intentions (Russia):

  • Achieve Incremental Territorial Gains: Continue localized ground assaults to expand control, as claimed with Ulyanovka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Degrade Ukrainian Military & Civilian Infrastructure: Sustain aerial attacks (KABs, drones) on military positions, logistics, and critical civilian infrastructure (e.g., as evidenced by Zaporizhzhia reconstruction needs, Sumy drone attacks). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Project Global Power & Normalcy: Conduct large-scale military exercises (Pacific Fleet) to demonstrate global reach and readiness, while simultaneously projecting domestic economic stability and social care (ruble, inflation, infrastructure, abortion prevention). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Shape Global Narrative through Nuclear Scaremongering and False Flags (CRITICAL): Significantly escalate nuclear rhetoric to pressure Western nations and create a climate of fear, aiming to reduce support for Ukraine. Continue to set conditions for false flag operations (Baltic Sea sabotage) to justify future escalations or deflect blame. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Consolidate Anti-Western Alliances & Exploit Divisions: Reinforce diplomatic ties with like-minded states (e.g., joint condemnation of Israel with Turkey) and continue to exploit existing fissures within Western alliances (e.g., Hungary's energy stance). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Maintain Internal Control & Purify Elites: Continue to address perceived corruption or dissent within the military-industrial complex and bureaucracy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• Increased Activity on Multiple Fronts: OSUV "Khortytsia" reporting increased Russian activity on seven axes indicates a potential shift towards broader, perhaps less concentrated, offensive operations designed to stretch Ukrainian defenses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Targeting of Civilian Infrastructure for IO/Psychological Impact: The continued drone attacks on Sumy and the focus of Zaporizhzhia reconstruction efforts on civilian homes and businesses highlights Russia's sustained targeting of civilian infrastructure, likely aimed at undermining morale and economic stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Escalated Nuclear Rhetoric in IO: The "Nuclear uncertainty" graphic is a new, overt, and extremely dangerous element in Russia's information warfare, marking a significant adaptation towards more aggressive and potentially destabilizing messaging on a global scale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Reinforced False Flag Pretexts: The explicit claim by Colonelcassad regarding "Ukraine and Britain preparing sabotage in the Baltic Sea" reinforces the earlier SVR RF claim, indicating a coordinated and persistent effort to lay the groundwork for a potential false flag incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Pacific Fleet Exercises: The scale and composition of the Pacific Fleet exercises suggest a renewed focus on projecting power beyond the immediate Ukrainian theater, potentially to divert attention or signal global military reach. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Identifiable Unit Operations (Motorcycle Incident): The specific mention of the "163rd Tank Regiment RF" in a video, even if of a non-combat incident (motorcycle crash), reflects some degree of tactical transparency from the Russian side (or its proxies) or successful Ukrainian identification. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• Russian forces continue to conduct large-scale exercises and maintain offensive operations, implying adequate, though potentially strained, logistical support. The ongoing KAB and drone attacks indicate sustained aerial munition supply. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• The internal reports of aviation safety issues (engine cowling detachment) could indicate broader maintenance or supply chain issues impacting civilian, and potentially military, aviation. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
• The continued internal focus on economic stability and infrastructure investment (water treatment, ruble) indicates an awareness of the need to sustain the domestic front, which indirectly supports the war effort. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• Russian Military C2: Continues to direct multi-axis offensives and coordinate aerial attacks. The large-scale Pacific Fleet exercises demonstrate robust strategic and operational C2 capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). However, the motorcycle crash video, if related to military operations, could highlight tactical discipline or command oversight issues within specific units. (CONFIDENCE: LOW).
• Russian IO/Diplomatic C2: Highly centralized and synchronized, effectively deploying complex, multi-layered narratives (Middle East, nuclear threats, false flags, economic narratives) to achieve strategic information objectives and manipulate international perceptions. The rapid amplification of specific narratives (Baltic Sea false flag) demonstrates agility. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The internal anti-corruption measures (Timur Ivanov) suggest efforts to improve C2 integrity. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
• Ukrainian Military C2: Continues to direct defensive operations across multiple axes and support civilian recovery efforts. OSUV "Khortytsia" provides unified reporting on increased enemy activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UKRAINIAN FOCUSED)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Ukrainian forces are maintaining an active and resilient defensive posture across multiple axes, responding to increased Russian activity. Artillery units are actively engaged in fire missions. Ukrainian regional administrations are proactively addressing civilian infrastructure damage and supporting businesses, demonstrating strong civil-military coordination and commitment to civilian welfare amidst ongoing conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Success (Defense/Resilience): Ukrainian forces continue to hold lines and actively engage the enemy despite increased pressure on multiple axes. The focus on reconstruction in Zaporizhzhia demonstrates resilience and a commitment to post-conflict recovery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Success (Fundraising): Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (Ukrainian source) reports a successful fundraising effort ("ЗБІР ЗАКРИТО!"), indicating strong public support for Ukrainian military needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Setback (Increased Pressure): OSUV "Khortytsia" reports increased Russian activity on seven directions, indicating heightened pressure across the front, which will strain Ukrainian resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Setback (Continued Aerial Attacks): Persistent drone and KAB attacks on Sumy and eastern Kharkiv pose an ongoing threat to civilian populations and military positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Setback (Infrastructure Damage): The ongoing need for reconstruction in Zaporizhzhia (2174 damaged private homes) highlights the continued impact of Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• The increased Russian activity on seven axes will place higher demands on Ukrainian personnel, ammunition, and equipment. Continued aerial attacks necessitate robust air defense resources. Reconstruction efforts require significant financial and material resources, potentially diverting from immediate military needs. The successful fundraising effort indicates that external support remains critical. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian Narratives (CRITICAL - NUCLEAR ESCALATION, FALSE FLAG, ECONOMIC STABILITY, ANTI-WESTERN/ANTI-UKRAINIAN, ANTI-SEMITISM):
  • Nuclear Escalation (CRITICAL NEW): Рыбарь's "Nuclear uncertainty" graphic, explicitly referencing the NPT and "pushing towards the abyss," is a highly dangerous and manipulative narrative. It aims to generate global fear and pressure for de-escalation on Russia's terms, by implying an imminent nuclear conflict stemming from Western actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • False Flag Pretext (Baltic Sea - Amplified): Colonelcassad's claim of "Ukraine and Britain preparing sabotage in the Baltic Sea" builds upon and reinforces the SVR RF's earlier false flag narrative, seeking to pre-emptively blame Ukraine/NATO for any future incidents. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Economic Stability & Domestic Normalization: TASS reports on the ruble strengthening, inflation decreasing, and Mishustin's infrastructure investment announcements (including in "new Russian subjects") are key messages for domestic consumption, aimed at projecting stability and normalcy despite the war. Kirov Oblast's abortion prevention payments also fit this narrative of a functioning state addressing social issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Middle East Alignment: Putin and Erdogan's joint condemnation of Israel's actions is used to showcase Russia's diplomatic alignment with anti-Western positions and to build a perceived bloc against Western influence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Exploiting Western/EU Divisions: Szijjártó's statement about Hungary stopping electricity to Ukraine if the EU bans Russian energy is immediately amplified to highlight and exacerbate divisions within the EU. Alex Parker Returns' mocking post about Western "hypocrisy" aims to undermine Western moral authority. Janus Putkonen's "NATO's battle to the last Finn" narrative aims to sow fear and division within NATO. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Projecting Military Might: The video of the Pacific Fleet preparing for large-scale exercises is used to project Russian global military capability and deterrence, diverting attention from the Ukraine front. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Claiming Tactical Gains: MoD Russia's claim of "liberating" Ulyanovka is designed to bolster domestic morale and present a picture of ongoing military success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Internal Scrutiny/Purge Narrative: The report on Timur Ivanov's bankruptcy proceedings allows the regime to project an image of addressing corruption and maintaining accountability, potentially deflecting from broader systemic issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian Counter-Narratives: Ukrainian channels (Оперативний ЗСУ, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, OSUV "Khortytsia", Повітряні Сили ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦) are countering by:
  • Highlighting Resilience & Reconstruction: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration showcasing reconstruction efforts and aid to businesses directly counters narratives of total destruction and disarray, emphasizing Ukrainian resilience and ability to recover. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Reporting on Increased Enemy Activity: OSUV "Khortytsia" transparently reporting increased Russian activity across seven axes maintains public awareness and demonstrates a clear understanding of the battlefield. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Confirming Russian Aerial Attacks: Air Force of Ukraine reporting KAB and drone launches on Sumy and eastern Kharkiv keeps the public informed about ongoing threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Showcasing Military Action: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України showcasing artillery in action demonstrates continued combat effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Highlighting Public Support: The successful fundraising effort by Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 showcases strong civilian support for the military. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Exposing Russian Tactical Incidents: Оперативний ЗСУ posting video of the Russian motorcycle crash, if correctly attributed to the 163rd Tank Regiment, exposes Russian tactical failures or recklessness. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian Morale: The visible reconstruction efforts in Zaporizhzhia and continued aid to businesses will likely boost morale among affected civilians, demonstrating concrete support. Successful fundraising campaigns reinforce civilian engagement and support for the military. The transparent reporting of increased Russian activity by military commands indicates trust in the public. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Morale: Russian IO aims to maintain public support by projecting economic stability, a strong military (Pacific Fleet exercises), and claiming battlefield successes (Ulyanovka "liberation"). The escalation of nuclear rhetoric is designed to either rally support against a perceived Western threat or to psychologically prepare the population for potential escalation. Internal purges might be presented as a crackdown on corruption, appealing to public desire for accountability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• The continued aid to Ukraine (as evidenced by reconstruction efforts and the general sustainment of Ukrainian forces) demonstrates ongoing international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian diplomatic efforts are actively aimed at creating and exploiting international divisions. The Hungarian statement regarding energy sanctions and electricity supply to Ukraine highlights a clear vulnerability in EU unity and a lever Russia will continue to press. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Putin and Erdogan's joint condemnation of Israel's operation against Iran signifies Russia's intent to consolidate a diplomatic bloc aligned against Western interests in the Middle East, which indirectly impacts the broader geopolitical support for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• The reintroduction of overt nuclear threat messaging via channels like Rybar represents an extreme and dangerous escalation in Russia's diplomatic and information warfare, aiming to intimidate Western decision-makers and deter further support for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Sustained and Intensified Multi-Axis Pressure with Focus on Donetsk and Sumy: Russia will continue to press on the Pokrovsk axis (after claiming Ulyanovka/Malynivka), and other established Donetsk axes. Significantly, Russia will maintain and likely intensify its aerial attacks (drones, KABs) on Sumy Oblast and eastern Kharkiv Oblast, potentially preceding or accompanying renewed, albeit likely localized, ground assault attempts, especially in areas like Andriivka. The reported increase in activity across seven axes confirms this broad pressure strategy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Escalated and Diversified Information Operations with Nuclear and False Flag Emphasis: Russia will double down on its information campaign, with a pronounced focus on nuclear threats and discussions (e.g., NPT), aiming to create global fear and pressure for de-escalation on Russian terms. Concurrently, it will continue to lay the groundwork for and potentially execute false flag operations (e.g., "sabotage in the Baltic Sea" involving Ukraine/Britain/US), to justify escalatory actions or deflect blame. These IO efforts will be heavily intertwined with narratives portraying Russia as a global power (Pacific Fleet exercises) and internally stable (economic reports, infrastructure investment). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Continued Targeting of Civilian Infrastructure: Russia will persist in striking Ukrainian civilian infrastructure (homes, businesses, agricultural enterprises) with drones and KABs, aiming to degrade economic stability, undermine morale, and create humanitarian crises (e.g., Zaporizhzhia reconstruction needs). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Exploitation of Western Divisions: Russia will continue to identify and exploit political and economic divisions within the EU and NATO (e.g., energy policy, anti-Israel sentiment) to weaken Western resolve and aid to Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Internal Consolidation and Purges: Russia will continue internal measures such as anti-corruption drives (Timur Ivanov bankruptcy) and social policies (abortion prevention) to consolidate power, project stability, and address demographic issues, thereby indirectly supporting the war effort. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Coordinated Strategic Escalation under Nuclear Blackmail and Fabricated Pretexts (Heightened Risk): Russia launches a highly coordinated strategic offensive, potentially combining:
  1. A massive wave of long-range precision strikes (ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, loitering munitions, KABs) across Ukraine, specifically targeting critical C2 nodes, logistics hubs, energy infrastructure, and key industrial sites, synchronized to achieve temporary operational paralysis and degrade Ukraine's ability to resist. This could include renewed attempts against Kyiv (e.g., Kyiv-60 claims) and deeper strikes than previously seen.
  2. A simultaneous large-scale ground offensive on a new, unexpected axis (e.g., a renewed major thrust from the North towards Kyiv/Chernihiv/Sumy, or a significant breakthrough attempt on the Pokrovsk axis), aiming for decisive operational gains, capitalizing on degraded Ukrainian C2 and stretched reserves. The increased activity on seven axes and renewed pressure on Sumy could be precursors.
  3. This military escalation would be preceded and accompanied by an unprecedented level of nuclear rhetoric, explicit nuclear threats from official Russian sources, and the execution of a pre-planned false flag operation (e.g., an incident in the Baltic Sea directly implicating Ukraine/UK/NATO, perhaps involving a US vessel, or a fabricated "chemical weapons attack" in Ukraine blameable on Kyiv). The "Nuclear uncertainty" graphic and Baltic Sea sabotage claims indicate this groundwork is actively being laid. This would be designed to coerce Western powers into a de-escalation that benefits Russia, prevent further aid to Ukraine, and potentially justify the use of unconventional weapons by Russia. The goal would be to force a favorable peace settlement by creating a global crisis of unparalleled proportions. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 1-6 hours):
  • ISR: Prioritize collection to verify Russian claims of "liberating" Ulyanovka (Malynivka) and assess the full BDA of the associated strikes. Continue to monitor Russian aerial activity (KABs, drones) over Sumy Oblast and eastern Kharkiv Oblast, and assess their impact. Assess the tactical significance of the Russian Pacific Fleet exercises and any implications for global naval movements. Continue real-time tracking of Russian milblogger and state media channels for new narratives or amplification of existing ones, especially regarding nuclear rhetoric (Rybar's graphic), and further details/amplification of false flag pretexts (Baltic Sea sabotage). Track any new reports of increased Russian activity on the seven reported axes. Identify and analyze any specific unit identifications, such as the "163rd Tank Regiment RF" in the motorcycle video.
  • IO: Commanders must continue preparation for a robust counter-narrative to the increased Russian activity on the front. Ukrainian channels should highlight their continued defensive efforts, resilience, and successful reconstruction efforts in affected areas (Zaporizhzhia). Prepare immediate debunking of false Russian claims of "liberation" and any further false flag pretexts. Forcefully expose and condemn Russia's escalating nuclear rhetoric, framing it as irresponsible and desperate, and a clear attempt to blackmail the international community. Highlight the increased pressure on Sumy and eastern Kharkiv as evidence of continued Russian aggression. Publicize Ukrainian fundraising successes.

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

• GAP 1: VERIFICATION OF "THE TELEGRAPH" REPORT ON US AID CESSATION (CRITICAL, IMMEDIATE, HYPER-PRIORITY, RETAINED): Independent, all-source verification of the "The Telegraph" report amplified by Russian sources regarding the cessation of US military aid to Ukraine. Assess the type, quantity, and operational impact of any such claims on Ukrainian defense capabilities.
  • COLLECTION REQUIREMENT (CR): Prioritize SIGINT, OSINT (direct source review of "The Telegraph" article for context, content, and accuracy), IMINT, and HUMINT from US, NATO, and Ukrainian sources to confirm or refute these reports. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 2: VERIFICATION OF ISRAELI/IRANIAN IMPACTS & RUSSIAN CLAIMS ON IRANIAN "HYPERSONIC" USE / AD DEFEAT / US INVOLVEMENT/TIES/BDA/CASUALTIES / NUCLEAR THREATS / IRAN NPT WITHDRAWAL / IRANIAN MFA UNSC PUSH, AND "US EMBASSY DAMAGE" / DECEPTIVE "APOCALYPSE" VIDEOS (CRITICAL, IMMEDIATE, UPDATED FOCUS, RETAINED): Independent, all-source verification of all specific impact claims in Israel and the reconciliation of conflicting casualty figures. Critically, assess the veracity of claims of Iranian "hypersonic" missile use and "new methods" to defeat Israeli air defenses, as well as claims of US Embassy damage in Tel Aviv and the shooting down of a US MQ-9 Reaper drone. Verify the claim of THAAD self-destruction due to Iranian hacking. Verify the veracity of Colonelcassad's claim of 370+ Iranian ballistic missiles. Verify claims of a deceased IRGC intelligence deputy. Also, verify the claim that Israel is attempting to convince the US to join military operations against Iran, the new, fabricated claims of US-Iranian consultations or an "American-Israeli war," and the specific claim of an Arrow-3/THAAD AD system being struck at Nevatim. Additionally, verify Rybar's claims of US refueling aircraft redeployment and changes in communication patterns for sea-based cruise missiles. Assess the specific impact and intent of the re-introduction of overt anti-Semitic propaganda and nuclear threats by Russian state-aligned channels, as well as the impact of direct Russian diplomatic actions (citizen warnings, embassy evacuation consideration, calls for UNSC condemnation of Israel, Putin/Erdogan condemnation of Israel). CONFIRM AND ANALYZE THE RUSSIAN DENIAL OF THE IRANIAN PARLIAMENT VOTE TO WITHDRAW FROM NPT. Verify claims of Tehran residents leaving and their true sentiment. Verify the execution of "Mossad agent" Ismail Fikri in Iran. Critically, analyze the source and intent of Kotsnews' "nuclear apocalypse" videos, distinguishing between genuine AD activity, fireworks, or fabricated imagery. Investigate the meaning and implication of Rybar's "Nuclear uncertainty" graphic and its reference to the NPT.
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (cross-referencing with Israeli official reports, international news agencies, US official statements, IAEA), IMINT (satellite imagery post-strike), and HUMINT from Israeli and US sources. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 3: RUSSIAN INTENT & FORCE DISPOSITION ON NORTHERN AXIS (CRITICAL, RETAINED, NEW FOCUS ON SUMY): Verification of reports of Russian troop movements to Belarus. Assess if the sustained Russian presence in Kursk border region indicates a future offensive push. Specifically assess the nature, scale, and intent of renewed Russian assault attempts on Andriivka in Sumy Oblast and other cross-border activity in Sumy, and the implications of increased KAB and drone attacks on Sumy/eastern Kharkiv.
  • CR: Prioritize IMINT, SIGINT, and HUMINT on Russian force composition, logistics build-up, and intent on the Belarus border, Kursk, and Sumy Oblast. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 4: UKRAINIAN BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (BDA) FROM RECENT DEEP STRIKES (CRITICAL, ONGOING): Full extent of damage and operational impact from recent Russian deep strikes on Ukrainian C2, logistics, and industrial sites (e.g., Dnipropetrovsk industrial enterprise from previous ISR), and civilian areas (Kyiv, Kharkiv). Also, full BDA of claimed Russian strikes on Ukrainian dugout/UAV control point near Mirnoye. Specifically, verify Russian claims of destroying a Ukrainian UAV command post in Kherson, and assess the operational impact. Assess the full extent of damage and personnel losses to the M113 APC in Donetsk. Assess the impact of claimed Russian strikes on a Ukrainian military-industrial enterprise, training center, and AD radar. Specifically, assess the BDA of the FPV strike on the Ukrainian military truck (Ural/Kamaz), the KAB strikes in Khotin Hromada, Sumy Oblast, the HIMARS strike in Makeyevka (including convoy composition and casualties), and the drone strike on the Russian Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer. Verify the impact of the Ukrainian SOF mine-laying operation (3x BTRs) and the Ukrainian sapper operation near Bayrak village. Investigate the veracity and BDA of the claimed Russian strike on "Kyiv-60" enterprise with "two dozen attack UAVs." Determine the cause and full impact of the large industrial fire in Rivne, and if it was enemy-caused. Assess the BDA of the Su-25 strikes claimed by MoD Russia. Critically, verify Russian losses claimed by Khorne Group 116th Separate Mechanized Brigade during assaults on Andriivka, Sumy Oblast, and BDA of Ukrainian drone strikes on personnel/vehicles in Sumy. Verify Russian claims of FPV strike on Ukrainian buggy and "Ranger" disappearance from Sumy. Assess the BDA of the claimed Ukrainian airstrike on Russian MoD positions in Bryansk Oblast. Assess the BDA of WarGonzo's claimed drone strike on a dugout on the Zaporizhzhia Front.
  • CR: Prioritize HUMINT from affected units, OSINT (local reports, social media analysis), and IMINT (satellite imagery analysis if available) to determine operational impact and identify vulnerabilities. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 5: RUSSIAN ROLE IN ISRAEL-IRAN ESCALATION (CRITICAL, RETAINED, NEW FOCUS ON "HYPERSONIC" CLAIMS, ANTI-SEMITISM, NUCLEAR THREATS, NPT WITHDRAWAL, AND DIPLOMATIC PRESSURE, AND POTENTIAL FALSE FLAGS, AND FABRICATED ATTACKS ON US ASSETS, AND JOINT CONDEMNATION OF ISRAEL): Assess the extent of direct or indirect Russian involvement in instigating or facilitating the recent missile launches from Iran towards Israel, beyond mere amplification and narrative manipulation. Is Russia providing intelligence, materiel, or political cover? Specifically, analyze the motivation and target audience for the amplification of "hypersonic" claims, nuclear threats, the introduction of overt anti-Semitic propaganda, and the initial (and now denied) claim of Iranian NPT withdrawal by Russian state-aligned channels, as well as the impact of official Russian diplomatic warnings/evacuations, the "Ukraine for Iran" rhetoric, and Putin/Erdogan's joint condemnation of Israel. Analyze the impact of Russian retractions of false claims. Critically, investigate the origin and intent of the "massive explosion" videos pushed by Russian channels, assessing if they are misattributed or false flags designed to sow fear or project exaggerated power. Investigate the veracity and intent of the claim of "US Embassy damage in Tel Aviv" as a fabricated pretext. Assess the impact of Israel's internal travel restrictions and the blocking of Israeli defense companies at the Paris Air Show, and Russia's leveraging of these events. Analyze the implications of Rybar's "Nuclear uncertainty" graphic.
  • CR: Prioritize SIGINT, HUMINT, and OSINT on Russia-Iran communications and coordination, and US military movements in the region. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 6: VERIFICATION OF RUSSIAN TACTICAL GAINS AND UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWALS (MEDIUM, UPDATED): Independent verification of Russian claims of "full clearing" of Malynivka (Ulyanovka), advances near Burlatske and Novopol, and Pushilin's claim of deep penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast towards Pokrovsk. Critically, verify the Russian claim of Ukrainian forces withdrawing from Komar area to Voskresenka. Verify Russian claims of destruction of AFU equipment at Novotoretskoye. Assess the veracity of the Russian-produced "Pace of Offensive Operation" chart and its data. Verify claimed "liberation" of Ulyanovka (Malynivka) and Komar settlement. Verify Russian claims of advances on Andriivka, Sumy Oblast, and any related Russian claims of Ukrainian unit withdrawals. Assess the implications of the "summer revitalization" on seven axes for Ukrainian force distribution.
  • CR: Prioritize HUMINT from Ukrainian units in the area, OSINT (local reports, geolocated video/photos), and IMINT. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• GAP 7: VERACITY AND INTENT OF RUSSIAN "HOSTAGE-TAKING" AND "TERRORIST ATTACK" CLAIMS (CRITICAL, NEW): Immediately verify the Russian Investigative Committee's claim of Ukrainian militants taking Kursk Oblast residents hostage in Sumy. Assess if this is a legitimate criminal investigation or a fabricated pretext for further Russian aggression or information operations. Also, analyze the intent and specific targets implied by Поддубный's claim that "Zelenskyy's regime is preparing terrorist attacks."
  • CR: Prioritize HUMINT (from Ukrainian sources, local Sumy residents), OSINT (cross-referencing with independent media, local government statements), SIGINT (monitoring Russian communications related to this claim). (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 8: RUSSIAN TACTICAL UAV SUPPLY SHORTFALLS AND FUNDRAISING (MEDIUM, UPDATED): Determine if the crowdfunding appeals for specific drone models by Russian units (VDV, Zaporozhye infantry, Paratroopers) or general "Summer Campaign 2025" fundraisers indicate systemic logistical issues or localized shortages. Assess the scale of these shortfalls and their impact on Russian tactical reconnaissance and targeting capabilities. Investigate the Avito listing of an EW system from Belgorod Oblast for indications of internal corruption or supply chain issues. Assess the impact of mobile internet issues in LNR on Russian tactical UAV operations. Track specific requests for tactical equipment, like the "Kula-4" drone analyzer and 250cc motorcycles, and assess if these are widespread needs or isolated unit-level deficiencies. Analyze the significance of crowdfunding specifically for Mavic 3T/3 Pro drones. Investigate the implications of the Russian airline engine cowling detachment on aviation safety/maintenance/supply.
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (monitoring further crowdfunding appeals, social media analysis of Russian military personnel discussions), HUMINT. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• GAP 9: VERACITY OF RUSSIAN "TERRORIST" ARRESTS (MEDIUM, RETAINED): Independent verification of the details and context surrounding the FSB's claimed arrest of a "Kyiv agent" in Kherson Oblast. Assess whether this is a legitimate counter-terrorism operation or a propaganda fabrication. Assess the veracity of the claim regarding priests being "victims of TCC". Verify the veracity of the Mash na Donbasse claim of a Ukrainian "national battalion fighter" being "convicted" after firing on Russian troops.
  • CR: Prioritize HUMINT, OSINT (local reports, independent media), and review of Russian methodology. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• GAP 10: DETAILS OF POW EXCHANGES AND BODY REPATRIATION (LOW, NEW): Verify numbers, conditions, and composition of personnel involved in claimed POW exchanges, particularly Alex Parker's claim of a 6000:27 ratio. Critically, verify Medinsky's claim of 6060 Ukrainian bodies transferred to Russia and 78 Russian bodies received from Ukraine, and his new projection of 2239 more Ukrainian bodies to be transferred. Compare and contrast with MO RF's later, conflicting claims of 1248 Ukrainian bodies transferred and 51 Russian bodies received.
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (Ukrainian official reports, international organizations) and HUMINT (from released personnel). (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 11: USE OF NORTH KOREAN MATERIEL (LOW, NEW): Assess the prevalence and impact of North Korean weapons systems (e.g., Type 75 MLRS) in the Russian armed forces.
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (imagery analysis), HUMINT. (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 12: RUSSIAN DNIEPER RIVER CROSSING CAPABILITIES/INTENT (LOW, NEW): Assess the scale, frequency, and intent behind reported Russian training exercises for Dnieper river crossings. Is this a genuine preparation for a large-scale offensive, or a localized probing/training exercise?
  • CR: Prioritize IMINT (satellite imagery of training areas), SIGINT (communications regarding riverine operations), HUMINT. (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 13: IMPACT OF RUSSIAN/BELARUSIAN FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS (LOW, NEW): Assess the strategic and economic impact of continued international flight cancellations to/from Russia and Belarus. Does this indicate worsening international isolation or specific security concerns? Assess the purpose and impact of Novosti Moskvy's propagation of videos of damaged civilian aircraft engines, and ASTRA's report on engine cowling detachment.
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (airline announcements, travel advisories, economic reports). (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 14: RUSSIAN USE OF AZERBAIJAN AS LOGISTICAL/DIPLOMATIC CORRIDOR (CRITICAL, UPDATED): Assess the full scope and purpose of the confirmed new transit route via Baku for Russian personnel and potentially materiel from Iran. Is this a one-off evacuation or the establishment of a strategic corridor for personnel and/or materiel from Iran? The latest crossing of 225 more Russians confirms ongoing use.
  • CR: Prioritize SIGINT, HUMINT, and OSINT (monitoring air and ground traffic, diplomatic statements from Russia and Azerbaijan). (PRIORITY: CRITICAL).
• GAP 15: IMPACT OF MOBILE INTERNET ISSUES IN LNR (LOW, NEW): Assess the cause and operational impact of the reported mobile internet issues in LNR. Does this indicate Ukrainian EW activity, infrastructure damage, or internal Russian issues?
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (local reports, social media), SIGINT (if possible, traffic analysis). (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 16: PUBLIC HEALTH SITUATION IN OCCUPIED/FRONT-LINE AREAS (LOW, NEW): Assess the extent of public health risks (e.g., cholera) in occupied and front-line Ukrainian territories, and the effectiveness of local and international efforts to mitigate them. Specifically, assess the severity of water supply issues in occupied Mariupol due to reservoir depletion. Monitor the impact of Mishustin's announced investment in water treatment facilities in "new Russian subjects."
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (local health reports, UN/NGO assessments), HUMINT. (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 17: INTENT AND IMPACT OF RUSSIAN PRE-EMPTIVE "PROVOCATION" NARRATIVES (MEDIUM, NEW): Assess the specific trigger and target of SVR RF's claim that "Ukraine and Europe are preparing sophisticated provocations against Russia." Specifically, investigate the newly articulated false flag scenario involving a "Russian torpedo attack on a US Navy ship in the Baltic Sea." Is this setting the stage for a specific false flag event, or a general deflection tactic? Also assess Poddubnyy's claim of "Zelenskyy's regime preparing terrorist attacks." Investigate Colonelcassad's amplification of the "Baltic Sea sabotage" claim.
  • CR: Prioritize SIGINT, HUMINT, OSINT on Russian internal communications and official statements. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• GAP 18: EFFECTIVENESS AND DEMAND FOR UKRAINIAN EW CAPABILITIES (LOW, NEW): Assess the specific types of EW equipment needed by Ukrainian forces (e.g., as highlighted by 'Barny') and the effectiveness of current EW systems in countering Russian drones and electronic warfare.
  • CR: Prioritize HUMINT from frontline units, OSINT (technical analyses of EW systems). (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 19: VERIFY RUSSIAN UNIT IDENTIFICATIONS (LOW, NEW): Confirm the veracity of unit identifications provided by Russian sources, such as the "163rd Tank Regiment RF" in the motorcycle crash video.
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (cross-referencing with other sources, unit tracking), HUMINT. (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 20: PACIFIC FLEET EXERCISES (MEDIUM, NEW): Assess the specific objectives, scale, and duration of the Russian Pacific Fleet exercises. Are these routine drills, or do they signal a new strategic posture or a shift in force deployment?
  • CR: Prioritize IMINT, SIGINT, OSINT (maritime tracking, official statements, naval analyses). (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• GAP 21: IMPACT OF RUSSIAN INTERNAL PURGES (LOW, NEW): Assess the impact of actions like the bankruptcy proceedings against Timur Ivanov on Russian military cohesion, logistics, and internal stability.
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (Russian legal/financial news), HUMINT. (PRIORITY: LOW).

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

• Intelligence & Special Operations (ISR, HUMINT, OSINT critical):

  1. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION OF "THE TELEGRAPH" AID CESSATION CLAIM. All-source intelligence must rapidly confirm or refute the Russian-amplified report on US military aid cessation. This remains the single most critical collection requirement for the next 6-12 hours. (Supports CR 1).
  2. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION OF CLAIMS REGARDING IRANIAN "HYPERSONIC" USE / AD DEFEAT / US INVOLVEMENT/TIES/BDA/CASUALTIES / NUCLEAR THREATS / IRAN NPT WITHDRAWAL / IRANIAN MFA UNSC PUSH IN MIDDLE EAST, AND THE SOURCE/INTENT OF "MASSIVE EXPLOSION" VIDEOS. CRITICALLY, IMMEDIATELY VERIFY/DEBUNK "US EMBASSY DAMAGE" CLAIM. VERIFY CLAIMED 370+ MISSILES AND IRGC INTELLIGENCE DEPUTY KIA. ANALYZE PUTIN/ERDOGAN JOINT CONDEMNATION OF ISRAEL. MONITOR IMPLICATIONS OF PARIS AIR SHOW INCIDENT AND ISRAELI TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS. ASSESS IMPLICATIONS OF RYBAR'S "NUCLEAR UNCERTAINTY" GRAPHIC. Rapidly confirm or deny claims of Iranian hypersonic missile use, AD defeat, US Embassy damage, and US MQ-9 Reaper drone shootdown. Expose any exaggeration or fabrication by Russian/Iranian sources, including the exaggerated 370+ missile claim and unverified IRGC casualties. Critically, assess the intent and impact of nuclear threats and overt anti-Semitic slurs from Russian-aligned channels, the veracity of the THAAD self-destruction claim, and the implications of Russia's denial of the Iranian NPT withdrawal claim, as well as the impact of direct Russian diplomatic actions (citizen warnings, embassy evacuation consideration, calls for UNSC condemnation of Israel, joint condemnation of Israel). Forcefully investigate and identify the source of the "massive explosion" videos; if misattributed or false flags, prepare immediate debunking. IMMEDIATELY AND FORCEFULLY DEBUNK THE CLAIM OF "US EMBASSY DAMAGE IN TEL AVIV" AS A DELIBERATE FABRICATION. Analyze Rybar's "Nuclear uncertainty" graphic for its direct messaging on NPT and global stability. (Supports CR 2, CR 5).
  3. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE BDA & VERIFICATION OF RUSSIAN LOSSES/TACTICAL SITUATION, ESPECIALLY ULYANOVKA AND INCREASED ACTIVITY ON SEVEN AXES. Task all available ISR assets to conduct immediate BDA for the HIMARS strike in Makeyevka and the drone strike on the Russian 2S7 Pion near Novoukrainka. Assess Russian losses claimed by Khorne Group 116th Separate Mechanized Brigade during assaults on Andriivka, Sumy Oblast, and BDA of Ukrainian drone strikes on personnel/vehicles in Sumy. Verify Russian claims of FPV strike on Ukrainian buggy and "Ranger" disappearance from Sumy. Assess BDA of claimed Ukrainian cross-border airstrike in Bryansk Oblast. Verify Russian claim of "liberation" of Ulyanovka (Malynivka) and assess the reality on the ground. Also, confirm success of Ukrainian SOF mine-laying (3x BTRs) and STERNENKO's drone-on-drone kill. Assess the implications for the tactical situation on the Pokrovsk and Novoukrainka axes. Verify Russian claimed strike on "Kyiv-60" enterprise and determine cause/impact of Rivne industrial fire. Assess BDA of MoD Russia's claimed Su-25 strikes. Assess BDA of WarGonzo's claimed drone strike on a dugout on the Zaporizhzhia Front. Assess the implications of OSUV "Khortytsia" reporting increased Russian activity on seven axes. (Supports CR 4, CR 6).
  4. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION AND DEBUNKING OF RUSSIAN "HOSTAGE-TAKING" CLAIMS AND BALTIC SEA FALSE FLAG. Task GUR/SBU to immediately investigate and gather evidence to refute the Russian Investigative Committee's claim of "Ukrainian militants taking Kursk residents hostage in Sumy." Prepare for immediate, forceful public debunking. Investigate the specifics of the SVR claim regarding a false flag "Russian torpedo attack on a US Navy ship in the Baltic Sea" and Colonelcassad's amplification. (Supports CR 7, CR 17).
  5. CRITICAL PRIORITY: VERIFY RUSSIAN NUMBERS IN BODY REPATRIATION AND POW EXCHANGES. Immediately verify Medinsky's claim of 6060 Ukrainian bodies transferred to Russia and 78 Russian bodies received from Ukraine, and his new projection of 2239 more Ukrainian bodies to be transferred. Compare with Ukrainian official figures (1245 bodies returned). Critically, compare with MO RF's conflicting claims of 1248 Ukrainian bodies transferred and 51 Russian bodies received. Highlight inconsistencies. (Supports CR 10).
  6. URGENT: VERIFY RUSSIAN "TERRORIST" ARRESTS IN KHERSON AND UKRAINIAN UAV C2 DESTRUCTION CLAIM, AND "PRIEST" NARRATIVES. Assess the veracity of FSB claims regarding the detained "Kyiv agent" and MoD claims of destroyed UAV C2 to determine if it is a legitimate operation or a propaganda pretext. Investigate the claims regarding priests and TCC. Verify the veracity of the Mash na Donbasse claim of a Ukrainian "national battalion fighter" being "convicted" after firing on Russian troops. (Supports CR 4, CR 9).
  7. CRITICAL PRIORITY: INTENSIFY ISR ON POKROVSK, KHARKIV-KUPYANSK, SUMY, DNIPROPETROVSK, KRAMATORSK, ZAPORIZHZHIA AXES, AND NORTHERN BORDER WITH BELARUS, AND DNIEPER RIVER. Maintain continuous monitoring for any signs of Russian force buildup or offensive preparations. Increase monitoring of Russian riverine activity on the Dnieper. Increase ISR focus on the Sumy axis due to renewed assault attempts and KAB/drone strikes and eastern Kharkiv due to KAB strikes. Monitor for any unit identifications, such as the "163rd Tank Regiment RF." (Supports CR 3, CR 6, CR 12, CR 19).
  8. URGENT: ASSESS BDA OF RECENT C2/LOGISTICS/INDUSTRIAL/CIVILIAN STRIKES. GUR/SBU to conduct immediate, granular battle damage assessment (BDA) for the Kyiv civilian damage, Oryol strikes, Kharkiv strikes, Khotin Hromada strikes, and other recent deep strikes. Identify systemic vulnerabilities and develop immediate counter-measures. (Supports CR 4).
  9. IMMEDIATE: MONITOR AND EXPLOIT RUSSIAN IO NARRATIVES (ESPECIALLY ON WESTERN AID CESSATION, MIDDLE EAST "US INVOLVEMENT/TIES/BDA/CASUALTIES," IRANIAN "HYPERSONIC" CLAIMS, NUCLEAR THREATS, IRAN NPT WITHDRAWAL (AND ITS DENIAL), "UKRAINIAN LOSSES," AND EXPLICIT ANTI-SEMITISM, AND POTENTIAL FALSE FLAG EXPLOSION VIDEOS, AND "HOSTAGE-TAKING" CLAIMS, AND "US EMBASSY DAMAGE" CLAIMS, AND MANIPULATED BODY EXCHANGE NUMBERS, AND MAXIMALIST DEMANDS, AND PRE-EMPTIVE "PROVOCATION" NARRATIVES, INCLUDING "NUCLEAR UNCERTAINTY" GRAPHIC). Actively monitor for and analyze new Russian IO narratives, particularly those claiming reduced/stopped Western aid to Ukraine, exaggerating Middle East "successes" or "incidents," speculating on US involvement or ties (including specific unverified BDA/casualties), and the new, sensational claims of Iranian "hypersonic" missile use and AD defeat, explicit nuclear threats, claims of Iranian NPT withdrawal (and subsequent denial), and the use of overt anti-Semitic propaganda. Also track Russian diplomatic actions in the Middle East (including joint condemnation of Israel) and the "Ukraine for Iran" rhetoric, and Iranian MFA calls to UNSC. Immediately analyze any new "massive explosion" videos for their origin and intent as potential false flags. Crucially, monitor all Russian channels for further amplification or details of the "hostage-taking" claims. IMMEDIATELY MONITOR FOR FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OR DEBUNKING OF THE "US EMBASSY DAMAGE IN TEL AVIV" CLAIM. Pay close attention to Russian manipulation of body exchange figures, including Medinsky's new projections. Monitor for amplification of maximalist demands (destroy Western weapons) and pre-emptive "provocation" narratives. Monitor narratives regarding Israel's internal travel restrictions and the Paris Air Show incident. Analyze the new "Nuclear uncertainty" graphic by Rybar and its implications for nuclear rhetoric. (Supports CR 1, 2, 5, 7, 10, 17).
  10. CONTINUOUS COUNTER-SABOTAGE INTELLIGENCE & INTERNAL SECURITY MONITORING. Continue efforts to identify and neutralize collaborators, as demonstrated by the recent success in Mykolaiv and Donetsk. Investigate the Avito EW system listing for signs of internal corruption or diversion. Investigate the Kryvyi Rih embezzlement case for further implications on critical infrastructure resilience. Address the Lviv mobilized serviceman incident to identify systemic issues. Monitor internal Russian repression and dissent for insights into regime stability. Monitor impact of Timur Ivanov bankruptcy.

• Air Defense & Force Protection:

  1. MAINTAIN HIGHEST AIR DEFENSE READINESS ACROSS ALL OBLASTS, WITH EMPHASIS ON EASTERN AIR THREAT AND INDUSTRIAL/CIVILIAN TARGETS, AND NORTHERN AXIS. Anticipate Russia may increase the intensity or breadth of aerial attacks (UAVs, ballistic missiles, KABs, tactical aviation, TOS) to capitalize on global distraction and the IO narrative of Western aid cessation. Ensure layered AD coverage for critical infrastructure and population centers, particularly industrial sites and population centers, and especially in border regions (Sumy, Chernihiv). Be prepared for aviation-launched munitions in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Focus on defense against drones in Sumy.
  2. ADAPT TO WIDER GEOGRAPHIC DRONE/MISSILE THREAT & COUNTER DEEP STRIKES. Implement and refine TTPs to counter widespread, multi-axis attacks, including FPV drones using small arms. Prioritize resources for defending critical C2 nodes, ammunition depots, and industrial/civilian facilities against confirmed Russian deep strikes.
  3. REVIEW AND REHEARSE CONTINUITY OF OPERATIONS (COOP) PLANS. All units must immediately review and rehearse COOP plans, ensuring redundant communication pathways and alternate command posts are ready, given the persistent threat of deep strikes.
  4. IMMEDIATE DISPERSAL AND CONCEALMENT. Disperse all high-value assets and personnel. Reinforce concealment measures, especially for C2 nodes and logistics hubs, against FPV drones and KABs.

• Ground Forces:

  1. MAINTAIN DISCIPLINED DEFENSIVE POSTURE IN POKROVSK, KHARKIV-KUPYANSK, SUMY, DNIPROPETROVSK, KRAMATORSK, ZAPORIZHZHIA, AND NORTHERN BORDER DIRECTIONS. Prioritize strong defensive lines. Respond to increased activity on seven axes.
  2. REINFORCE DEFENSES IN SUMY OBLAST (NORTHERN-SLOBOZHANSKYI DIRECTION). Based on DPGU announcement and new assault attempts on Andriivka, prepare for increased Russian ground activity and cross-border incursions. Continue to leverage successes in countering Russian assault attempts. Ensure units are adequately equipped with off-road vehicles and EW.
  3. CONTAIN RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN DONETSK/DNIPROPETROVSK/ZAPORIZHZHIA, ESPECIALLY AROUND ULYANOVKA/MALYNIVKA, KOMAR AREA, AND NOVOPAVLIYKA. Reinforce defensive lines. Prepare for counter-attacks to regain lost ground or consolidate defensive lines.
  4. CONTINUE FPV DRONE OPERATIONS & COUNTER-BATTERY. Leverage successes in FPV drone attacks against Russian targets (e.g., dugouts, vehicles, personnel) and continue aggressive counter-battery fire against Russian artillery and MLRS (TOS, improvised MLRS). Analyze successful targeting methods. Prioritize fundraising and acquisition for critical equipment like re-transmitter drones for units like "Stryzh" battalion.
  5. MAINTAIN DNEPR RIVER PATROLS AND INTERDICTION CAPABILITIES. Continue successful operations to prevent Russian river crossings in Kherson, and monitor any increased Russian riverine training activity.
  6. IMPROVE PERSONNEL TRANSPORT SAFETY. Address and investigate the incident in Lviv Oblast regarding the mobilized serviceman to prevent recurrence and improve troop welfare. Investigate the motorcycle crash incident for lessons on tactical movement.
  7. MAINTAIN MINE WARFARE PROFICIENCY. Leverage and disseminate lessons learned from the successful SOF mine-laying operation (3x BTRs) to other units. Disseminate lessons from Ukrainian sapper successes in leading assaults.

• Information Operations (IO):

  1. IMMEDIATE & AGGRESSIVE: COUNTER RUSSIAN NARRATIVES ON "US AID CESSATION," MIDDLE EAST "HYPERSONIC" CLAIMS / "US INVOLVEMENT/TIES/BDA/CASUALTIES," NUCLEAR THREATS, IRAN NPT WITHDRAWAL (AND ITS DENIAL), "UKRAINIAN LOSSES," AND EXPLICIT ANTI-SEMITISM. FORCEFULLY DEBUNK "MASSIVE EXPLOSION" VIDEOS AS MISATTRIBUTED OR FALSE FLAGS. IMMEDIATELY EXPOSE "HOSTAGE-TAKING" CLAIMS AS BLATANT FALSE FLAGS. CRITICALLY, IMMEDIATELY EXPOSE "US EMBASSY DAMAGE IN TEL AVIV" CLAIMS AS BLATANT FABRICATIONS. FORCEFULLY DEBUNK MEDINSKY'S MANIPULATED BODY EXCHANGE NUMBERS (6060 VS 1245) AND MO RF'S INCONSISTENT NUMBERS (1248 VS 1245). EXPOSE RUSSIAN MAXIMALIST DEMANDS AND PRE-EMPTIVE "PROVOCATION" NARRATIVES (INCLUDING BALTIC SEA FALSE FLAG AND "NUCLEAR UNCERTAINTY" GRAPHIC). HIGHLIGHT ZELENSKYY'S DIPLOMATIC VISITS. Proactively and forcefully counter the narrative that the US is stopping aid. Immediately debunk false TASS/Russian claims regarding Iranian "hypersonic" use and advanced AD defeat, and any fabricated claims of US-Iranian consultations or an "American-Israeli war" AND the specific unverified BDA/casualty claims, including US Embassy damage, and the high Israeli/Iranian casualty figures (e.g., 370+ missiles). FORCEFULLY CONDEMN THE INTRODUCTION OF OVERT ANTI-SEMITIC PROPAGANDA, ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH NUCLEAR THREATS, by Russian channels. IMMEDIATELY ADDRESS THE RUSSIAN DENIAL OF THE IRANIAN NPT WITHDRAWAL CLAIM, highlighting the previous amplification as evidence of Russian disinformation tactics. Immediately expose any "massive explosion" videos from Russian sources as misattributed or false flags, emphasizing Russian deception. MOST IMPORTANTLY, IMMEDIATELY AND FORCEFULLY DEBUNK THE RUSSIAN INVESTIGATIVE COMMITTEE'S CLAIM OF "UKRAINIAN MILITANTS TAKING RUSSIAN CIVILIANS HOSTAGE IN SUMY," PRESENTING IT AS A BLATANT FALSE FLAG OPERATION AND PRETEXT FOR ESCALATION. USE THE "US EMBASSY DAMAGE" CLAIM AS ANOTHER PRIME EXAMPLE OF RUSSIAN DESPERATION AND THEIR WILLINGNESS TO FABRICATE WAR CRIMES AND DIRECTLY TARGET US INTERESTS IN THE INFO SPACE. IMMEDIATELY AND FORCEFULLY DEBUNK MEDINSKY'S EXAGGERATED CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN BODY TRANSFERS (6060, plus 2239 projected), HIGHLIGHTING UKRAINE'S VERIFIABLE FIGURES (1245) AND THE INCONSISTENCY OF RUSSIAN OFFICIAL FIGURES (1248). Emphasize that Russia seeks to destabilize both regions to exhaust Western resources and attention, as evidenced by the "Ukraine for Iran" rhetoric. Highlight Ukrainian successes in inflicting Russian losses (e.g., successful drone defense, artillery engagements, high AD kill rates, FPV drone intercepts, successful agent arrests, deep strikes on Oryol, FPV truck strike, HIMARS on Makeyevka, DeepState's Pion strike, SOF BTRs, sapper ops, drone strikes in Sumy, reported Bryansk strike, WarGonzo dugout strike, motorcycle crash incident). Expose the neglect of Russian war graves as a counter to their "patriotic" narrative. Expose any internal Russian corruption and Ukrainian successes in combating it (Kryvyi Rih). Counter narratives regarding Ukrainian internal divisions (priests, language use). Promote positive stories of Ukrainian veteran support and societal resilience, especially rehabilitation efforts and reconstruction in frontline areas, and public health efforts (cholera prevention in Zaporizhzhia, water issues in Mariupol). Publicize Ukrainian government's digital services for veterans. Highlight Russian demands for Ukraine to disarm Western weapons as proof of aggressive intent. Publicize President Zelenskyy's visit to Austria as evidence of continued international support. Use stories like 'Barny' to highlight the resolve of Ukrainian defenders. Expose Russian aviation safety issues. Publicize successful fundraising efforts.
  2. RAPID DEBUNKING OF MISINFORMATION. Maintain rapid response to immediately debunk unverified and sensationalized claims propagated by Russian state media and milbloggers (e.g., fabricated Israeli/US actions, rapidly escalating and unverified casualty figures, specific BDA claims, and aggressive territorial claims like "Dnipropetrovsk bridgehead" or "Sumy breakthrough," claimed "liberation" of Ulyanovka, Komar, and claims of Tehran residents leaving). Expose Russia's use of emotionally charged propaganda and anti-Semitic rhetoric, and nuclear threats.
  3. PROMOTE UKRAINIAN RESILIENCE & AD SUCCESSES: Highlight ongoing Ukrainian AD operations and any successful intercepts to reassure the public and international partners of continued defensive capabilities. Project local control and normalcy despite civilian casualties. Publicize formalized veteran support programs to boost morale and show national resilience. Publicize successful counter-intelligence operations and anti-corruption efforts. Publicly highlight official appointments (e.g., new Prosecutor General nominee) to demonstrate governmental stability.
  4. HIGHLIGHT RUSSIAN ALLIANCES WITH PARIAH STATES & ROLE IN GLOBAL INSTABILITY. Emphasize that Russia directly benefits from and seeks to amplify and manipulate global instability, and is now using potentially unverified claims and narratives of US involvement (and fabricated US ties/BDA/casualties and anti-Semitic slurs) to further this aim. Highlight the use of North Korean materiel by Russian forces. Highlight the continued flow of Russian energy revenue from the EU. Highlight Russian exploitation of EU internal divisions (Hungary/Slovakia energy block, Paris Air Show incident). Condemn the use of combined Russian-Serbian flags for IO. Expose the purpose of large-scale Russian military exercises (Pacific Fleet) as global power projection and intimidation.

• Diplomatic/Inter-Agency:

  1. IMMEDIATE & PROACTIVE: ENGAGE KEY PARTNERS ON SUSTAINED SUPPORT AND COUNTERING RUSSIAN DIPLOMATIC MANIPULATION AND AID NARRATIVES. Ukrainian diplomatic missions should immediately engage with US, EU, and other key partners to address "The Telegraph" report on aid cessation. Seek clarification and a unified, strong public message of continued robust support. Emphasize that such narratives are deliberate Russian attempts to sow discord and undermine support. Leverage the confirmed Trump-Zelenskyy meeting at the G7 summit and President Zelenskyy's visit to Austria to reinforce direct communication and continued high-level engagement.
  2. COORDINATE WITH ALLIES ON IO STRATEGY: Coordinate closely with allied IO agencies to ensure a unified and consistent counter-narrative to Russian disinformation, particularly regarding aid, global conflict, and the new, more extreme and manipulative narratives, including the direct attempt to draw the US into the Middle East conflict with fabricated claims and unverified BDA/casualties, the sensational claims of "hypersonic" use, claims of Iranian NPT withdrawal (and its denial), and the introduction of overt anti-Semitic propaganda and nuclear threats, and the "Nuclear uncertainty" graphic. Also coordinate response to Russian diplomatic actions in the Middle East (including Putin/Erdogan joint condemnation of Israel) and the "Ukraine for Iran" rhetoric, and Iranian MFA calls to UNSC. Coordinate immediate debunking of any "massive explosion" videos identified as false flags/misattributed. Crucially, coordinate a unified and immediate diplomatic response to the Russian "hostage-taking" false flag claim, condemning it as a blatant fabrication designed to escalate. MOST CRITICALLY, COORDINATE IMMEDIATE, FORCEFUL DIPLOMATIC CONDEMNATION OF THE FABRICATED CLAIM OF "US EMBASSY DAMAGE IN TEL AVIV" AND THE SVR'S CLAIM OF A FALSE FLAG "RUSSIAN TORPEDO ATTACK ON A US NAVY SHIP IN THE BALTIC SEA." Coordinate on exposing Medinsky's manipulation of body exchange numbers (6060, plus 2239 projected) and MO RF's inconsistency (1248) and compare to Ukrainian verified figures (1245).
  3. INTERNATIONAL CONDEMNATION OF CIVILIAN/INDUSTRIAL TARGETING AND RUSSIAN ANTI-SEMITIC PROPAGANDA. Continue to highlight Russian strikes on civilian/industrial targets to maintain international pressure and secure further AD assistance. Simultaneously, seek strong international condemnation of Russia's use of overt anti-Semitic propaganda as a tool of information warfare. Condemn Russia's punitive measures against citizens in Belgorod. Engage international partners regarding the Hungarian ruling party's "discreditation" campaign and the blocking of EU energy plans. Highlight the blocking of Israeli defense companies at the Paris Air Show and its broader implications. Condemn Russia's attempts to project power globally through military exercises while prosecuting an illegal war.
  4. ENGAGE WITH INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS ON VETERAN SUPPORT & RECONSTRUCTION. Seek international assistance and partnerships for formal veteran support programs to ensure their sustainability and effectiveness. Actively solicit and manage international aid for reconstruction efforts in frontline regions like Zaporizhzhia.
  5. ADDRESS INTERNAL CORRUPTION WITH INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT. Seek international support and expertise for combating large-scale corruption, particularly when it impacts critical civilian infrastructure during wartime, as highlighted by the Kryvyi Rih case. This demonstrates Ukraine's commitment to good governance and strengthens its case for international aid.
  6. ADDRESS PUBLIC HEALTH RISKS IN CONFLICT ZONES. Coordinate with international humanitarian organizations (WHO, Red Cross) to address and mitigate public health risks such as cholera in front-line and occupied territories, advocating for safe access to water and sanitation. Highlight severe water supply issues in occupied Mariupol.