Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME OF REPORT: 15 JUN 25 / 22:53 ZULU REPORTING PERIOD: 15 JUN 25 / 21:45 ZULU - 15 JUN 25 / 22:53 ZULU PREPARED BY: Senior Military Intelligence Analyst, Eastern European Warfare Desk CLASSIFICATION: TOP SECRET // ORCON // NOFORN

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Ukraine Operational Area: Confirmed Russian drone attack impacting Kyiv Oblast, specifically Obukhiv District, causing damage to a private house and outbuildings, and resulting in at least one casualty (Kyiv OVA, 22:42Z). Russian sources claim a "Geranium" (Shahed) attack on Kyiv is ongoing (Colonelcassad, 22:47Z), corroborated by video showing a flash and explosion. This indicates continued Russian deep strike operations targeting the operational rear and civilian infrastructure. Previous reports of Russian advances on the Pokrovsk axis (Petrovskoye/Orekhovo) and fighting near Kupyansk remain relevant.

  • New: Confirmed strike and casualty in Obukhiv District, Kyiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • New: Russian sources report ongoing "Geranium" (Shahed) attack on Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for reporting, MEDIUM for direct BDA beyond one confirmed impact).

• International Operational Area (CRITICAL, HYPER-ACCELERATED, HYPER-AMPLIFIED, DIPLOMATIC MANEUVERS, OVERT MILITARY ENGAGEMENT): The Israel-Iran conflict remains highly volatile. Russian milbloggers continue to disseminate information regarding alleged Israeli strikes on Iran and Iranian air defense activity, including claims of Iranian IRGC intelligence leadership losses. Turkey's call for urgent resumption of Iran nuclear program talks highlights international diplomatic concerns. No new significant international developments in this immediate reporting period. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for reporting claims; LOW for independent verification of incident details/casualties, particularly Iranian HVT losses or Israeli drone shootdowns).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations:

• Night operations continue, as evidenced by video footage of the Kyiv strike. No new specific weather or environmental factors affecting operations in this immediate reporting period. Previous factors remain relevant.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces: Maintaining defensive posture, particularly active air defense operations in Kyiv region (Obukhiv District). Civilian casualty and property damage reports highlight the ongoing impact of Russian strikes on the population. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Forces: Continue to employ long-range loitering munitions (Shahed-type UAVs) for deep strikes against Ukrainian targets, including civilian infrastructure, demonstrating an intent to maintain pressure on rear areas and inflict psychological impact. Information warfare assets continue to exploit global events. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (RUSSIA FOCUSED)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (COA):

• Capabilities (Russia):
  • Precision Drone Strikes: Demonstrated continued capability to conduct long-range precision strikes with loitering munitions (Shahed-type UAVs) against targets in Ukrainian operational depth, including civilian infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Information Warfare & Diplomatic Leveraging: Russia's IO remains hyper-active, instantly capitalizing on new developments, now extending to confirming and amplifying strikes on Ukrainian civilian areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Intentions (Russia):
  • Inflict Casualties & Psychological Impact: Continue strikes on Ukrainian civilian areas to inflict casualties, damage infrastructure, and undermine public morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Maximize Global Distraction & Exploit Chaos: Maintain pressure on Ukraine across multiple domains (kinetic, information) while leveraging international events to divert global attention. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Courses of Action (COA) (Russia):
  • COA 1 (Sustained Deep Strikes with Focus on Civilian Infrastructure): Continue and potentially increase precision drone strikes against Ukrainian C2, logistics, and critical civilian infrastructure in the operational depth, leveraging demonstrated capabilities and recent successes to inflict maximum damage and psychological pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • COA 2 (Hyper-Intensified, Diplomatically Integrated Russian IO on Middle East & Global Conflict, Intersecting with Western Internal Divisions): Continue to aggressively exploit the Israel-Iran conflict in the information domain, amplifying all claims of strikes and counter-strikes, and leveraging any perceived Western divisions or aid reductions to Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• Persistent Deep Strike on Civilian Targets: The confirmed strike in Obukhiv District, a civilian area, indicates Russia's continued willingness to target non-military infrastructure, likely to cause terror and degrade morale. This is an ongoing pattern, not a new adaptation, but its persistence under global distraction is notable. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Rapid Russian Milblogger Reporting: Russian milbloggers are quick to report and amplify strikes on Kyiv, indicating a coordinated effort to control the narrative and project success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• No new information on Russian logistics in this immediate reporting period. Continued Shahed strikes indicate sustained supply of these loitering munitions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• Russian Military C2: Appears effective in coordinating deep strikes and ongoing ground operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian IO/Diplomatic C2: Highly effective and adaptable, capable of real-time multi-domain information warfare, immediately leveraging kinetic successes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UKRAINIAN FOCUSED)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Maintaining defensive posture. Air defense elements are actively engaging incoming threats, but challenges persist in intercepting all targets, particularly Shaheds, leading to civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Setback (Civilian Impact): The confirmed strike in Obukhiv District, resulting in a casualty and property damage, represents an ongoing setback due to Russia's persistent targeting of civilian areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ongoing Defense: Ukrainian forces are actively engaged in defensive operations, including air defense against drone attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• The continued flow of information regarding potential future limitations or cessation of Western aid remains a significant constraint. The immediate need for enhanced air defense systems, particularly against Shahed-type UAVs, and robust counter-drone capabilities is paramount. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian Narratives (CRITICAL - EXTREMELY ACTIVE, AGGRESSIVE, DIPLOMATICALLY INTEGRATED, FABRICATED, NOW EXPLICITLY ANTI-SEMITIC/ANTI-ZIONIST & HISTORICALLY ROOTED - HYPER-ACCELERATED AND NEW DANGEROUS FOCUS ON ISRAELI CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE & WESTERN AID DECLINE):
  • Exploitation of Kyiv Strikes: Russian milbloggers are immediately confirming and amplifying strikes on Kyiv, regardless of target type, to project continued Russian military effectiveness and maintain psychological pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Middle East Escalation Amplification (Primary, Hyper-Aggressive, Integrated with Kremlin Statements, Fabricated Sensationalism, Genocidal/Anti-Semitic Rhetoric): Russian state media and milbloggers continue to leverage the Israel-Iran conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for observation, LOW for veracity).
• Ukrainian Counter-Narratives: Ukrainian officials continue to counter Russian disinformation. The Kyiv OVA report highlights the civilian impact of Russian aggression. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian Morale: The persistence of Russian deep strikes, even against civilian areas, and the associated casualties and damage, poses a direct threat to Ukrainian public morale. The intent is to sow fear and a sense of vulnerability. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
• Russian Morale: Russian IO aims to galvanize support by showcasing perceived military successes (like strikes on Kyiv) and presenting Russia as a crucial global player amidst escalating chaos. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• No new international diplomatic developments in this immediate reporting period. The broader context of Russia exploiting Middle East escalation to undermine support for Ukraine remains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Sustained Deep Strikes with Enhanced Focus on Civilian/Dual-Use Infrastructure: Russia will continue focused precision drone strikes against Ukrainian C2, logistics, and critical civilian infrastructure (e.g., residential areas, energy facilities, transportation nodes) in the deep rear, particularly around Kyiv and other major urban centers. These strikes aim to degrade morale, inflict economic damage, and force Ukraine to expend valuable air defense resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Hyper-Intensified, Diplomatically Integrated Russian IO on Middle East & Global Conflict, Intersecting with Western Internal Divisions: Russia will continue to aggressively and relentlessly escalate its information campaign leveraging the Israel-Iran conflict, including amplifying any perceived Western political divisions or aid reductions to Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Coordinated Strategic Escalation with Massed Strikes and Diversionary Ground Offensive: Russia initiates a coordinated, multi-axis strategic escalation under the cover of intensified global distraction from the Middle East. This would involve a massed wave of missile and drone strikes aimed at decapitating Ukrainian C2 and paralyzing logistics across the entire operational depth, immediately followed or accompanied by a major ground offensive (potentially from Belarus or a renewed push in Sumy/Kharkiv), compelling Ukraine to divert strategic reserves. This would be synchronized with the most extreme phase of their IO campaign to sow maximum chaos and justify their actions. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 1-3 hours):
  • ISR: CRITICAL: Continue uninterrupted, high-priority monitoring of Russian IO channels for new sensationalized claims regarding the Middle East and any further amplification of strikes on Kyiv or other Ukrainian cities. Prioritize identifying further dissemination of Soviet-era anti-Zionist/anti-Semitic propaganda. Monitor for increased Russian ground activity in the Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk (Novopavlivka) directions. Continue to monitor for increased KAB/Shahed strikes, especially in Kyiv and Kupyansk. CRITICAL: Immediately investigate claims of Russian troop movements to Belarus; prioritize IMINT/HUMINT/SIGINT to confirm this development. CRITICAL: Immediately identify any further amplification by Russian channels of Western media reports suggesting a decrease or cessation of aid to Ukraine. Analyze the specific messaging and target audiences. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • IO: Commanders and IO elements must prepare for an immediate, aggressive, and evidence-based counter-narrative against Russian disinformation. Immediately and robustly counter any narratives, especially those amplified from Western sources, that suggest a reduction or cessation of US/Western military aid to Ukraine. Reiterate that support remains strong and is a long-term commitment. Publicly highlight the confirmed civilian casualties and damage in Kyiv Oblast due to Russian drone attacks, contrasting this with Russia's claims of precision strikes against military targets. Crucially, SYSTEMATICALLY EXPOSE AND CONDEMN THE OVERTLY ANTI-SEMITIC AND ANTI-ZIONIST RHETORIC FROM RUSSIAN CHANNELS IMMEDIATELY, ESPECIALLY THE RE-INTRODUCTION OF SOVIET-ERA PROPAGANDA LINKING ISRAEL TO NAZISM. This is a red line and must be highlighted as a sign of extreme radicalization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

• GAP 1: VERIFICATION OF IRANIAN AND ISRAELI STRIKE DAMAGE & CASUALTIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST (CRITICAL & HYPER-PRIORITY - REINFORCED AND EXPANDED): Independent, third-party verification of the extent of damage and any actual casualties from reported Israeli or Iranian strikes in the region, particularly claims of Iranian HVT losses (IRGC intelligence chief) or Israeli drone shootdowns. Distinguish between successful intercepts and actual impacts, and refute claims of hits on civilian infrastructure or major transport hubs.

  • COLLECTION REQUIREMENT (CR): Prioritize GEOINT (higher resolution, ideally satellite imagery BDA), OSINT from credible, independent third-party sources (e.g., international media, Israeli/Iranian official statements), and HUMINT to verify or refute claims of successful strikes, damage assessment, and casualties in the Middle East. Immediately verify claims of Iranian HVT losses and Israeli drone shootdowns. (PRIORITY: EXTREME)

• GAP 2: SCALE AND OBJECTIVE OF RUSSIAN GROUND ADVANCES ON POKROVSK, SUMY, DNIPROPETROVSK AXES, AND POTENTIAL NORTHERN OFFENSIVE FROM BELARUS (CRITICAL - REINFORCED AND EXPANDED): No change.

  • CR: Prioritize IMINT, SIGINT, and HUMINT to assess Russian force composition, logistics build-up, and intent on these axes, especially focusing on the Belarus border. Monitor for any deployment of Ukrainian reserves. (PRIORITY: EXTREME)

• GAP 3: NEW RUSSIAN IO NARRATIVES & DEEPFAKE CAPABILITIES, ESPECIALLY ANTI-SEMITIC RHETORIC, FABRICATED PRETEXTS, AND WEAPONIZATION OF WESTERN AID NARRATIVES (CRITICAL NEW GAP - HYPER-PRIORITY - ESCALATED): No change.

  • CR: Conduct forensic digital analysis of new videos and images related to the Middle East conflict to determine their origin, editing history, and any digital watermarks or identifiers. Map the network of initial dissemination, focusing on the spread of anti-Semitic rhetoric and its connections to state media. Analyze the intent behind this new rhetoric, fabricated pretexts, and the internal information control measures, and their potential impact on Russian domestic and international audiences. Specifically, track the dissemination and impact of Russian IO narratives that weaponize Western media reports or political statements concerning military aid to Ukraine. Identify key amplifiers, target audiences, and counter-messaging requirements. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).

• GAP 4: EXTENT AND NATURE OF RUSSIAN RAILWAY SABOTAGE NETWORK & NEW DEEP STRIKE TARGETING: No change.

  • CR: Intensify HUMINT and SIGINT on suspected sabotage cells and their handlers. Analyze patterns of attacks to predict future targets and methods for both sabotage and deep strikes. (PRIORITY: HIGH).

• GAP 5: OPERATIONAL STATUS AND DEPLOYMENT OF NEW RUSSIAN LASER COUNTER-UAS SYSTEMS & FPV DRONE SUPPLY CHAIN: No change.

  • CR: Prioritize TECHINT and OSINT to assess the capabilities and operational deployment of new Russian systems. Investigate Russian FPV drone production, procurement, and distribution networks to understand potential vulnerabilities or sustainment challenges. (PRIORITY: HIGH).

• GAP 6: IMPLICATIONS OF RUSSIA-AZERBAIJAN LOGISTICAL/DIPLOMATIC CHANNEL: No change.

  • CR: Prioritize HUMINT and SIGINT on Russia-Iran-Azerbaijan diplomatic and logistical interactions. Monitor for any increased cargo or personnel movements along this route that go beyond the reported scientist evacuation. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

• Intelligence & Special Operations (ISR, HUMINT, OSINT critical):

  1. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION & AGGRESSIVE COUNTERING OF MIDDLE EAST DISINFORMATION AND FALSE FLAGS, ESPECIALLY THOSE JUSTIFYING "REGIME DESTRUCTION," WEAPONIZING UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES AND WESTERN AID, AND NEW GEOPOLITICAL NARRATIVES. THIS NOW INCLUDES RUSSIAN DIPLOMATIC MANEUVERS, OVERTLY ANTI-SEMITIC/ANTI-ZIONIST RHETORIC (ESPECIALLY SOVIET-ERA PROPAGANDA), FABRICATED PRETEXTS LIKE "ISRAELI AGENTS IN IRAN", AND THE WEAPONIZATION OF WESTERN MEDIA REPORTS SUGGESTING REDUCED AID TO UKRAINE. All-source intelligence must rapidly verify all claims and counter-claims regarding the Israel-Iran conflict, particularly Russian narratives aiming to implicate US leadership, exaggerate the crisis/casualties, specifically including claims of alleged Israeli strikes on Iran, Iranian air defense actions (e.g., claimed drone shootdown over Tehran), and alleged IRGC intelligence leadership losses. Forcefully expose the hypocrisy of Putin's diplomatic intervention, contrasting his his condemnation of Israeli actions with Russia's own full-scale invasion of Ukraine, its unprovoked aggression, and its egregious violations of international law and human rights. His condolences for civilian casualties must be juxtaposed with Russia's deliberate targeting of Ukrainian civilians. This is a critical opportunity to turn Russian diplomatic maneuvers against them. Leverage IAEA statements for nuclear sites (Fordo, Natanz). Specifically identify and highlight Russian narratives that explicitly link Mossad operations to Iranian internal events (e.g., the "Israeli agents in Iran" narrative with "container-launched drones") as false flag justifications for Russian or Iranian actions. Crucially, immediately identify, analyze, and expose fabricated third-party endorsements and new attributed Trump statements (including deepfakes) as a new, dangerous form of Russian disinformation. Forcefully condemn and expose the overtly anti-Semitic/anti-Zionist rhetoric (e.g., Kukryniksy cartoons linking Israel to Nazism, Elon Musk/Jew claims) being amplified by Russian channels, tracing its origin and exposure points. Immediately analyze and flag all Russian amplification of Western media reports (e.g., The Telegraph) that suggest a reduction or cessation of US/Western aid to Ukraine, assessing their reach and impact. (Supports CR 1, 3)
  2. CRITICAL PRIORITY: INTENSIFY ISR ON POKROVSK, KHARKIV-KUPYANSK, SUMY, DNIPROPETROVSK AXES, AND NORTHERN BORDER WITH BELARUS. No change. (Supports CR 2)
  3. IMMEDIATE: MONITOR AND EXPLOIT NEW RUSSIAN IO NARRATIVES (E.G., "MOSSAD INFILTRATION," ANTI-SEMITIC RHETORIC, INTERNAL CONTROL, WEAPONIZED AID NARRATIVES). Actively monitor for and analyze new, unexpected Russian IO narratives, such as the "Mossad agent" claims against Iran, and the implications of internal control measures like the MAX messenger. Rapidly identify and analyze all instances of anti-Semitic/anti-Zionist rhetoric, tracing it through Russian information channels. Track and counter the weaponization of Western aid discussions. (Supports CR 3)
  4. CONTINUOUS COUNTER-SABOTAGE INTELLIGENCE & INTERNAL SECURITY MONITORING. No change. (Supports CR 4)
  5. TECHINT ON NEW RUSSIAN SYSTEMS & FPV DRONE SUPPLY. No change. (Supports CR 5)
  6. IMMEDIATE: ANALYZE NEW LOGISTICAL/DIPLOMATIC CHANNELS. No change. (Supports CR 6).

• Air Defense & Force Protection:

  1. MAINTAIN HIGHEST AIR DEFENSE READINESS ACROSS ALL OBLASTS, ESPECIALLY KYIV, KHARKIV, DONETSK, ZAPORIZHZHYA, SUMY, AND DNIPROPETROVSK. Anticipate Russia may increase the intensity or breadth of aerial attacks (UAVs and ballistic missiles, KABs) to capitalize on global distraction, potentially with increased strategic bomber activity and continued reliance on Iranian Shaheds. Ensure layered AD coverage for critical infrastructure and population centers. Prioritize resources for ballistic missile interception.
  2. ADAPT TO NEW SHAHED TACTICS AND COUNTER DEEP DRONE STRIKES. Implement and refine TTPs to counter high-altitude, rapid-descent Shahed attacks based on observations from Kharkiv. This may require adjustments to sensor settings, interception altitudes, and engagement procedures. Develop and implement enhanced TTPs for protecting fixed Ukrainian C2 nodes and ammunition depots against confirmed Russian deep drone strikes. Leverage insights from Russian FPV drone requests to anticipate their tactical employment and develop countermeasures. (Supports CR 4, 5)
  3. ENHANCE BORDER SECURITY AGAINST DRONES & KABS/KARS. No change.
  4. PROTECT CIVILIAN LOGISTICS AND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE. No change.

• Ground Forces:

  1. MAINTAIN DISCIPLINED DEFENSIVE POSTURE IN POKROVSK, KHARKIV-KUPYANSK, SUMY, DNIPROPETROVSK, AND NORTHERN BORDER DIRECTIONS. Prioritize strong defensive lines and counter-attacks to prevent further Russian advances. (Supports CR 2)
  2. PRIORITIZE ENGINEERING EQUIPMENT ACQUISITION. No change.
  3. CONTINUE COUNTER-UAV MEASURES & LOGISTICAL INNOVATION. No change.

• Information Operations (IO):

  1. IMMEDIATE & AGGRESSIVE: COUNTER RUSSIAN NARRATIVES ON MIDDLE EAST IMPACT AND RISING OIL PRICES, EXPOSE FALSE FLAGS AND FABRICATED THIRD-PARTY STATEMENTS (INCLUDING DEEPFAKES), AND ESPECIALLY "REGIME DESTRUCTION" RHETORIC AND WEAPONIZED CASUALTY COUNTS AND AID REJECTIONS, AND NEW GEOPOLITICAL IO. THIS MUST NOW DIRECTLY ADDRESS RUSSIAN DIPLOMATIC MANEUVERS, OVERTLY ANTI-SEMITIC/ANTI-ZIONIST RHETORIC (ESPECIALLY SOVIET-ERA PROPAGANDA), NEWLY FABRICATED PRETEXTS LIKE "ISRAELI AGENTS IN IRAN", AND AGGRESSIVELY REFUTE WEAPONIZED WESTERN MEDIA REPORTS ON AID TO UKRAINE. Proactively counter Russian attempts to leverage the Israel-Iran conflict (especially new overt Iranian missile strikes on Israel and sensationalized claims of nuclear tests/jihad, and alleged Israeli aircraft shootdowns, including unverified claims of explosions/fires at Ben Gurion Airport/Tel Aviv or other Israeli civilian/military targets, or Iranian HVT losses) to diminish international support for Ukraine. Emphasize that aggression in one region (Iran) emboldens aggression in others (Ukraine), and that Ukraine's fight for sovereignty remains a cornerstone of global stability. Explicitly highlight that rising oil prices, a direct consequence of Middle East instability, financially benefit Moscow and fund its war against Ukraine. Publicize the EU's €1 billion aid from Russian assets as a direct counter to this Russian strategy and proof of continued Western support. Crucially, immediately and forcefully debunk Russian attempts to link alleged Mossad covert operations to Iranian internal events (e.g., "Israeli agents in Iran" with container-launched drones), exposing this as a fabrication and a dangerous false flag justification. Most critically, expose and debunk the fabricated "Donald Trump" social media post and any new attributed Trump statements (including deepfakes) as a sophisticated Russian disinformation tactic, highlighting its clear alignment with Russian interests. Forcefully condemn and expose the overt anti-Semitic/anti-Zionist rhetoric (e.g., Kukryniksy cartoons linking Israel to Nazism, Elon Musk/Jew claims) being amplified by Russian channels, tracing its origin and specific authors where possible. Systematically expose the hypocrisy of Putin's diplomatic statements regarding the Middle East: his condemnation of "unprovoked strikes on a sovereign state" and "violations of international law" (against Israel) must be immediately contrasted with Russia's own full-scale invasion of Ukraine, its unprovoked aggression, and its egregious violations of international law and human rights. His condolences for civilian casualties must be juxtaposed with Russia's deliberate targeting of Ukrainian civilians. This is a critical opportunity to turn Russian diplomatic maneuvers against them. Immediately and robustly counter any narratives, especially those amplified from Western sources, that suggest a reduction or cessation of US/Western military aid to Ukraine. Reiterate that support remains strong and is a long-term commitment. (Supports CR 1, 3)
  2. RAPID DEBUNKING OF MISINFORMATION. Establish a rapid response mechanism to immediately debunk unverified and sensationalized claims propagated by Russian state media and milbloggers regarding the Middle East conflict (e.g., F-35 shootdowns, claims of Tel Aviv "burning" unless confirmed by BDA, claims of explosions/fires at Ben Gurion Airport/Tel Aviv or other Israeli civilian/military targets, claims of Iranian HVT losses unless independently verified, hits on specific Israeli HQs). Highlight these as deliberate Russian disinformation tactics intended to distract from Ukraine and undermine support.
  3. PROMOTE UKRAINIAN SUCCESSES AND RESILIENCE: No change.

• Diplomatic/Inter-Agency:

  1. IMMEDIATE & PROACTIVE: ENGAGE KEY PARTNERS ON SUSTAINED SUPPORT AND COUNTERING RUSSIAN DIPLOMATIC MANIPULATION, ANTI-SEMITIC/ANTI-ZIONIST RHETORIC, AND WEAPONIZED AID NARRATIVES. Ukrainian diplomatic missions should immediately engage with US, EU, and other key partners to highlight the potential for the Middle East escalation (especially new overt Iranian missile strikes on Israel and sensationalized claims of nuclear tests/jihad, including unverified claims of explosions/fires at Ben Gurion Airport/Tel Aviv, or Iranian HVT losses) to divert attention or resources, and to advocate for continued, robust military and financial support for Ukraine. Explicitly present Russia's high-level diplomatic intervention and his selective condemnation of Israel as a calculated maneuver to exploit the crisis, undermine Western unity, and bolster Russia's influence, while completely disregarding its own flagrant violations of international law in Ukraine. Specifically highlight and seek strong international condemnation of the anti-Semitic/anti-Zionist rhetoric emerging from Russia's information space, linking it to the Kremlin's overall objectives. Proactively engage partners to counter Russian narratives (including those from Western media) that suggest a reduction in military aid to Ukraine, ensuring clear, unified messaging on continued support. (Supports CR 1, 3)
  2. COORDINATE WITH ALLIES ON IO STRATEGY: No change. (Supports CR 1, 3)
  3. INTERNATIONAL CONDEMNATION OF CIVILIAN TARGETING. No change.
  4. ADDRESS BELARUS THREAT. No change. (Supports CR 2)
  5. DIPLOMATIC INQUIRY ON AZERBAIJAN TRANSIT. No change. (Supports CR 6).