Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME OF REPORT: 15 JUN 25 / 21:30 ZULU REPORTING PERIOD: 15 JUN 25 / 19:46 ZULU - 15 JUN 25 / 21:30 ZULU PREPARED BY: Senior Military Intelligence Analyst, Eastern European Warfare Desk CLASSIFICATION: TOP SECRET // ORCON // NOFORN

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Ukraine Operational Area: No significant changes to battlefield geometry observed in this immediate reporting period. Russian advances on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) axis (Petrovskoye/Orekhovo) and Novopavlivka (Komar, Koptevo) remain the latest confirmed shifts. Confirmed Russian deep drone strikes on Ukrainian C2 (OTG "Lugansk", 36th OMBR) and logistics (142nd OMBR ammo depot) continue to pose a significant threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• International Operational Area (CRITICAL, HYPER-ACCELERATED, HYPER-AMPLIFIED, DIPLOMATIC MANEUVERS, OVERT MILITARY ENGAGEMENT): The Israel-Iran conflict remains at a critical escalation point. Russian milblogger claims of "fires" near Ben Gurion Airport, Tel Aviv, following reports of an explosion, continue to be disseminated. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for reporting claims and video; LOW for independent verification of incident, location, or cause).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations:

• No new specific weather or environmental factors affecting operations in this immediate reporting period. Previous factors remain relevant.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces: Maintain defensive posture. C2 and logistics remain vulnerable to Russian deep strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Forces: Information Warfare assets are actively exploiting and amplifying claims related to the Middle East, aligning with patterns of sensationalizing conflict to divert attention and sow chaos. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (RUSSIA FOCUSED)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (COA):

• Capabilities (Russia):
  • Information Warfare & Diplomatic Leveraging (CRITICAL - UNPRECEDENTED INTENSITY, AGGRESSIVE, DIPLOMATICALLY INTEGRATED, HISTORICALLY ROOTED ANTI-SEMITIC PROPAGANDA - MAX ACCELERATION - NEW FOCAL POINT ON ISRAELI INFRASTRUCTURE/CIVILIAN TARGETS): Russia's IO is operating at its highest tempo, immediately and relentlessly exploiting the overt Iranian missile strikes on Israel. The rapid dissemination of unverified claims and video regarding explosions/fires near Ben Gurion Airport, Tel Aviv, demonstrates their capability to instantly capitalize on any perceived Israeli vulnerability or Iranian success. This is occurring simultaneously with the re-activation and dissemination of Soviet-era anti-Zionist/anti-Semitic propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Hybrid Operations (Political Interference): Russia demonstrates a capability to exploit and amplify information from Western sources (e.g., The Telegraph) to undermine international support for Ukraine, specifically targeting the perceived political will for continued military aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Intentions (Russia):
  • Maximize Global Distraction & Exploit Chaos (PRIMARY, HYPER-ACCELERATED & EXTREME DANGER - NOW EXPLICITLY INCLUDING HISTORICAL ANTI-SEMITIC PROPAGANDA & DIRECT INFORMATION ATTACK ON WESTERN ALLIES - IMMEDIATE EXPLOITATION OF ISRAELI VULNERABILITIES): Russia's primary intent is to fully leverage the Israel-Iran conflict to achieve its strategic objectives in Ukraine and globally. The rapid amplification of the Ben Gurion Airport claims, combined with the immediate dissemination of negative Western reporting on aid to Ukraine, indicates an intent to:
    • Exaggerate Israeli Vulnerability: Portray Israel as heavily damaged and vulnerable, thereby discrediting Western (particularly US) military aid and alliances.
    • Deepen Global Chaos Narrative: Further sensationalize the conflict to divert maximum global attention from Ukraine.
    • Undermine Western Unity/Support for Ukraine: Directly leverage any perceived internal divisions or policy shifts within Western nations (e.g., US aid policy under a potential future Trump administration) to create a sense of inevitability regarding a reduction of support for Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Courses of Action (COA) (Russia):
  • COA 1 (Hyper-Intensified, Diplomatically Integrated Russian IO on Middle East & Global Conflict, Intersecting with Western Internal Divisions - PRIMARY, MAX ACCELERATION & EXTREME DANGER - FURTHER REINFORCED WITH CLAIMS OF ISRAELI INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE AND WEAPONIZATION OF WESTERN POLITICAL NARRATIVES): Russia will immediately and relentlessly escalate its aggressive, fabricated, and diplomatically supported information campaign regarding the Israel-Iran conflict. This will include:
    • Massive, rapid, and sensational amplification of all Iranian claims of successful strikes on Israel, and any confirmed or unconfirmed damage/casualties, regardless of veracity. This now includes specific focus on Israeli civilian/commercial infrastructure, such as airports, to maximize psychological impact.
    • Continued, direct amplification of Soviet-era anti-Zionist/anti-Semitic propaganda.
    • Dissemination of new fabricated claims and miscontextualized videos.
    • Immediate and aggressive amplification of any Western media reports or political statements that suggest a reduction or cessation of military aid to Ukraine (e.g., "US will no longer give weapons to Ukraine"), framing these as confirmed policy shifts and inevitable outcomes to demoralize Ukraine and discourage Western resolve. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• Immediate IO Focus on Israeli Civilian Infrastructure/Commercial Hubs and Western Aid Doubts: The rapid amplification of claims regarding Ben Gurion Airport indicates a tactical shift in Russian IO to specifically target high-impact civilian/commercial locations in Israel for their narratives. Concurrently, the immediate weaponization of Western media reports concerning aid to Ukraine demonstrates a heightened tactical adaptability to leverage any perceived weakness or division within the Western alliance against Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• No new information on Russian logistics in this immediate reporting period.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• Russian IO/Diplomatic C2 (HYPER-EFFECTIVE AND ADAPTABLE - MAX ACCELERATION & EXTREME RADICALIZATION): The immediate, coordinated, and multi-faceted response to new developments in the Middle East, specifically the rapid dissemination of unverified claims and video regarding Ben Gurion Airport, combined with the immediate exploitation of Western media reports on Ukraine aid, demonstrates exceptionally effective, highly centralized, and adaptable C2 for real-time, multi-domain information warfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UKRAINIAN FOCUSED)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• No new information on Ukrainian force posture/readiness in this immediate reporting period. Previous assessments remain relevant.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• No new tactical successes or setbacks in this immediate reporting period.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• The continued flow of information regarding potential future limitations or cessation of Western aid (as evidenced by the amplified The Telegraph report) creates an ongoing psychological and operational constraint, even if unconfirmed. Maintaining partner confidence and a steady supply of materiel remains critical. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian Narratives (CRITICAL - EXTREMELY ACTIVE, AGGRESSIVE, DIPLOMATICALLY INTEGRATED, FABRICATED, NOW EXPLICITLY ANTI-SEMITIC/ANTI-ZIONIST & HISTORICALLY ROOTED - HYPER-ACCELERATED AND NEW DANGEROUS FOCUS ON ISRAELI CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE & WESTERN AID DECLINE):
  • Middle East Escalation Amplification & Diplomatic Weaponization with Historical Anti-Semitism (Primary, Hyper-Aggressive, Integrated with Kremlin Statements, Fabricated Sensationalism, Genocidal/Anti-Semitic Rhetoric - Further Reinforced & Escalated with New Dangers): Russian state media and milbloggers are massively, sensationally, and now explicitly leveraging the overt Iranian missile strikes on Israel by reactivating Soviet-era anti-Zionist/anti-Israeli propaganda. The rapid dissemination of unverified video and claims regarding explosions and fires near Ben Gurion Airport, Tel Aviv, aims to portray widespread Israeli vulnerability and destruction of key infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for observation, LOW for veracity).
  • Weaponization of Western Media Reports (NEW DEVELOPMENT): Russian channels (e.g., ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) are immediately amplifying reports from Western sources (e.g., The Telegraph) that suggest a potential halt to US military aid to Ukraine under a future administration. This narrative aims to sow doubt and despair within Ukraine and among its international supporters, portraying aid as contingent and unreliable. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Russian Morale: Russian IO aims to galvanize support by presenting Russia as a crucial global player amidst escalating chaos and by showcasing perceived Iranian successes against Israel. The immediate focus on "explosions" near Ben Gurion airport and the amplification of reports concerning US aid withdrawal aim to reinforce a narrative of overwhelming Iranian capability/Israeli vulnerability and a decline in Western support for Ukraine, potentially boosting domestic Russian morale by highlighting instability elsewhere and perceived Western weakness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian Morale: The relentless barrage of Russian disinformation, particularly regarding the perceived decline of Western military aid, poses a direct threat to Ukrainian public and military morale. Such messages, even if unconfirmed, can foster a sense of isolation and hopelessness, undermining resilience. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Middle East Escalation & Russian Diplomatic Maneuvers (CRITICAL & ACCELERATING, WITH EXTREME DANGER): The immediate amplification of claims regarding Ben Gurion Airport, coupled with the weaponization of Western media reports concerning aid, further reinforces Russia's intent to exacerbate the crisis and use it to divert global attention while simultaneously undermining the international coalition supporting Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Hyper-Intensified, Diplomatically Integrated Russian IO on Middle East & Global Conflict, Intersecting with Western Internal Divisions (PRIMARY, MAX ACCELERATION & EXTREME DANGER - FURTHER REINFORCED AND EXPANDED, NOW DIRECTLY RESPONDING TO OVERT IRANIAN STRIKES AND INCLUDING HISTORICAL ANTI-SEMITIC PROPAGANDA, WITH A NEW FOCUS ON ISRAELI CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE AND AGGRESSIVE EXPLOITATION OF WESTERN POLITICAL NARRATIVES): Russia will immediately and relentlessly escalate its aggressive, fabricated, and diplomatically supported information campaign regarding the Israel-Iran conflict. This will include:
  • Massive, rapid, and sensational amplification of all Iranian claims of successful strikes on Israel, and any confirmed or unconfirmed damage/casualties, regardless of veracity, potentially using deepfakes and fabricated imagery. Specific focus will be given to claims of damage to Israeli civilian/commercial infrastructure (e.g., airports, major cities) to maximize psychological impact.
  • Continued direct, open amplification of Soviet-era anti-Zionist/anti-Semitic propaganda explicitly linking Israel to Nazism and demonizing US aid, alongside new fabricated claims (e.g., Israeli agents operating inside Iran) to serve as pretexts.
  • Continued efforts to debunk Israeli air defense capabilities.
  • Aggressive and immediate exploitation of any perceived Western political divisions or statements regarding aid to Ukraine, amplifying them as evidence of waning support and an inevitable Ukrainian defeat. This will include rapid translation and dissemination of negative Western media reports.
  • Russia will continue to position itself as a "de-escalatory" power through diplomatic channels, while simultaneously fueling the information war. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• No change to MDCOA in this immediate reporting period.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 1-3 hours):
  • ISR: CRITICAL: Continue uninterrupted, high-priority monitoring of Russian IO channels for new sensationalized claims regarding the Middle East, particularly focusing on any claims related to nuclear facilities, escalated Iranian retaliation, or specific missile types. Prioritize identifying further dissemination of Soviet-era anti-Zionist/anti-Semitic propaganda, and any new claims regarding Israeli civilian or military infrastructure (e.g., airports, major government buildings) including the rapid verification of the Ben Gurion Airport claims and the associated video. Immediately verify the extent of damage in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem based on reliable, independent sources. Monitor for further details on any Israeli retaliation. CRITICAL: Monitor for any increased Russian ground activity in the Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk (Novopavlivka) directions. Continue to monitor for increased KAB/Shahed strikes. CRITICAL: Immediately investigate claims of Russian troop movements to Belarus; prioritize IMINT/HUMINT/SIGINT to confirm this development. Monitor for any shifts in Russian official diplomatic rhetoric regarding the Middle East, beyond general de-escalation calls, especially those mirroring genocidal/anti-Semitic rhetoric. Monitor Russian milblogger channels for further appeals for specific equipment, especially FPV drones. Monitor activity related to the Baku-Moscow route for Russian scientists, looking for any further implications for Russia-Iran-Azerbaijan cooperation. CRITICAL: Immediately identify any further amplification by Russian channels of Western media reports suggesting a decrease or cessation of aid to Ukraine. Analyze the specific messaging and target audiences. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • IO: Commanders and IO elements must prepare for an immediate, aggressive, and evidence-based counter-narrative against Russian disinformation regarding the Middle East crisis, particularly emphasizing that Russia is exploiting the crisis and that rising oil prices directly benefit Moscow. Prepare to immediately debunk specific Russian/Iranian claims regarding explosions/fires at Ben Gurion Airport/Tel Aviv (or any other Israeli civilian/military targets), requiring rapid BDA. Crucially, SYSTEMATICALLY EXPOSE AND CONDEMN THE OVERTLY ANTI-SEMITIC AND ANTI-ZIONIST RHETORIC FROM RUSSIAN CHANNELS IMMEDIATELY, ESPECIALLY THE RE-INTRODUCTION OF SOVIET-ERA PROPAGANDA LINKING ISRAEL TO NAZISM. This is a red line and must be highlighted as a sign of extreme radicalization. Immediately debunk the "Israeli agents in Iran" narrative as a dangerous fabrication. Crucially, systematically expose the hypocrisy of Putin's diplomatic statements regarding the Middle East: his condemnation of "unprovoked strikes on a sovereign state" and "violations of international law" (against Israel) must be immediately contrasted with Russia's own full-scale invasion of Ukraine, its unprovoked aggression, and its egregious violations of international law and human rights. His condolences for civilian casualties must be juxtaposed with Russia's deliberate targeting of Ukrainian civilians. This is a critical opportunity to turn Russian diplomatic maneuvers against them. Publicly condemn and expose the use of miscontextualized or old footage to support false claims. Highlight the continued devastating impact of Russian KAB and Shahed strikes on Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Donetsk, using real-time reports to draw attention back to Ukraine. Address the confirmed loss of Petrovskoye (Orekhovo) and the ongoing intensity of fighting, and the impact of Russian deep drone strikes. Promote humanitarian efforts (evacuations, body repatriations) and fundraising as signs of Ukrainian resilience. CRITICAL: Immediately prepare and disseminate counter-messaging to refute reports (e.g., from The Telegraph) that claim the US will cease military aid to Ukraine. Emphasize that these are speculative reports, not official policy, and that international support remains strong and unwavering. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

• GAP 1: VERIFICATION OF IRANIAN MISSILE STRIKE DAMAGE & ISRAELI CASUALTIES, SPECIFICALLY AT BEN GURION AIRPORT/TEL AVIV AREA (CRITICAL & HYPER-PRIORITY - REINFORCED AND EXPANDED): Independent, third-party verification of the extent of damage and any actual casualties at or near Ben Gurion Airport/Tel Aviv from Iranian missile strikes is paramount. This includes distinguishing between successful intercepts and actual impacts, and especially refuting claims of hits on civilian infrastructure or major transport hubs. The veracity of claims regarding F-35 shootdowns and captured pilots needs definitive refutation.

  • COLLECTION REQUIREMENT (CR): Prioritize GEOINT (higher resolution, ideally satellite imagery BDA), OSINT from credible, independent third-party sources (e.g., international media, Israeli official statements), and HUMINT to verify or refute claims of successful Iranian missile strikes, damage assessment, and casualties in Israel, with immediate focus on the Ben Gurion Airport/Tel Aviv area. Analyze newly emerged satellite imagery for precise location identification and BDA. Immediately verify claims of Israeli F-35 shootdowns and pilot captures, debunking fabricated videos. (PRIORITY: EXTREME)

• GAP 2: SCALE AND OBJECTIVE OF RUSSIAN GROUND ADVANCES ON POKROVSK, SUMY, DNIPROPETROVSK AXES, AND POTENTIAL NORTHERN OFFENSIVE FROM BELARUS (CRITICAL - REINFORCED AND EXPANDED): No change.

  • CR: Prioritize IMINT, SIGINT, and HUMINT to assess Russian force composition, logistics build-up, and intent on these axes, especially focusing on the Belarus border. Monitor for any deployment of Ukrainian reserves. (PRIORITY: EXTREME)

• GAP 3: NEW RUSSIAN IO NARRATIVES & DEEPFAKE CAPABILITIES, ESPECIALLY ANTI-SEMITIC RHETORIC, FABRICATED PRETEXTS, AND WEAPONIZATION OF WESTERN AID NARRATIVES (CRITICAL NEW GAP - HYPER-PRIORITY - ESCALATED): No change.

  • CR: Conduct forensic digital analysis of new videos and images related to the Middle East conflict to determine their origin, editing history, and any digital watermarks or identifiers. Map the network of initial dissemination, focusing on the spread of anti-Semitic rhetoric and its connections to state media. Analyze the intent behind this new rhetoric, fabricated pretexts, and the internal information control measures, and their potential impact on Russian domestic and international audiences. Specifically, track the dissemination and impact of Russian IO narratives that weaponize Western media reports or political statements concerning military aid to Ukraine. Identify key amplifiers, target audiences, and counter-messaging requirements. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).

• GAP 4: EXTENT AND NATURE OF RUSSIAN RAILWAY SABOTAGE NETWORK & NEW DEEP STRIKE TARGETING: No change.

  • CR: Intensify HUMINT and SIGINT on suspected sabotage cells and their handlers. Analyze patterns of attacks to predict future targets and methods for both sabotage and deep strikes. (PRIORITY: HIGH).

• GAP 5: OPERATIONAL STATUS AND DEPLOYMENT OF NEW RUSSIAN LASER COUNTER-UAS SYSTEMS & FPV DRONE SUPPLY CHAIN: No change.

  • CR: Prioritize TECHINT and OSINT to assess the capabilities and operational deployment of new Russian systems. Investigate Russian FPV drone production, procurement, and distribution networks to understand potential vulnerabilities or sustainment challenges. (PRIORITY: HIGH).

• GAP 6: IMPLICATIONS OF RUSSIA-AZERBAIJAN LOGISTICAL/DIPLOMATIC CHANNEL: No change.

  • CR: Prioritize HUMINT and SIGINT on Russia-Iran-Azerbaijan diplomatic and logistical interactions. Monitor for any increased cargo or personnel movements along this route that go beyond the reported scientist evacuation. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

• Intelligence & Special Operations (ISR, HUMINT, OSINT critical):

  1. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION & AGGRESSIVE COUNTERING OF MIDDLE EAST DISINFORMATION AND FALSE FLAGS, ESPECIALLY THOSE JUSTIFYING "REGIME DESTRUCTION," WEAPONIZING UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES AND WESTERN AID, AND NEW GEOPOLITICAL NARRATIVES. THIS NOW INCLUDES RUSSIAN DIPLOMATIC MANEUVERS, OVERTLY ANTI-SEMITIC/ANTI-ZIONIST RHETORIC (ESPECIALLY SOVIET-ERA PROPAGANDA), FABRICATED PRETEXTS LIKE "ISRAELI AGENTS IN IRAN", AND THE WEAPONIZATION OF WESTERN MEDIA REPORTS SUGGESTING REDUCED AID TO UKRAINE. All-source intelligence must rapidly verify all claims and counter-claims regarding the Israel-Iran conflict, particularly Russian narratives aiming to implicate US leadership, exaggerate the crisis/casualties, specifically including claims of explosions/fires at Ben Gurion Airport/Tel Aviv, and those explicitly justifying "regime destruction" as a legitimate outcome, and those making hyperbolic claims of missile attacks, unconfirmed Iranian HVT losses, claims of Iranian nuclear tests, alleged Israeli aircraft shootdowns, and an Israeli strike on Khamenei's residence. Forcefully expose the hypocrisy of Putin's diplomatic intervention, contrasting his his condemnation of Israeli actions with Russia's own full-scale invasion of Ukraine, its unprovoked aggression, and its egregious violations of international law and human rights. His condolences for civilian casualties must be juxtaposed with Russia's deliberate targeting of Ukrainian civilians. This is a critical opportunity to turn Russian diplomatic maneuvers against them. Leverage IAEA statements for nuclear sites (Fordo, Natanz). Specifically identify and highlight Russian narratives that explicitly link Mossad operations to Iranian internal events (e.g., the "Israeli agents in Iran" narrative with "container-launched drones") as false flag justifications for Russian or Iranian actions. Crucially, immediately identify, analyze, and expose fabricated third-party endorsements and new attributed Trump statements (including deepfakes) as a new, dangerous form of Russian disinformation. Forcefully condemn and expose the overtly anti-Semitic/anti-Zionist rhetoric (e.g., Kukryniksy cartoons linking Israel to Nazism, Elon Musk/Jew claims) being amplified by Russian channels, tracing its origin and exposure points. Immediately analyze and flag all Russian amplification of Western media reports (e.g., The Telegraph) that suggest a reduction or cessation of US/Western aid to Ukraine, assessing their reach and impact. (Supports CR 1, 3)
  2. CRITICAL PRIORITY: INTENSIFY ISR ON POKROVSK, SUMY, DNIPROPETROVSK AXES, AND NORTHERN BORDER WITH BELARUS. No change. (Supports CR 2)
  3. IMMEDIATE: MONITOR AND EXPLOIT NEW RUSSIAN IO NARRATIVES (E.G., "MOSSAD INFILTRATION," ANTI-SEMITIC RHETORIC, INTERNAL CONTROL, WEAPONIZED AID NARRATIVES). Actively monitor for and analyze new, unexpected Russian IO narratives, such as the "Mossad agent" claims against Iran, and the implications of internal control measures like the MAX messenger. Rapidly identify and analyze all instances of anti-Semitic/anti-Zionist rhetoric, tracing it through Russian information channels. Track and counter the weaponization of Western aid discussions. (Supports CR 3)
  4. CONTINUOUS COUNTER-SABOTAGE INTELLIGENCE & INTERNAL SECURITY MONITORING. No change. (Supports CR 4)
  5. TECHINT ON NEW RUSSIAN SYSTEMS & FPV DRONE SUPPLY. No change. (Supports CR 5)
  6. IMMEDIATE: ANALYZE NEW LOGISTICAL/DIPLOMATIC CHANNELS. No change. (Supports CR 6).

• Air Defense & Force Protection:

  1. MAINTAIN HIGHEST AIR DEFENSE READINESS ACROSS ALL OBLASTS, ESPECIALLY KHARKIV, DONETSK, ZAPORIZHZHYA, SUMY, AND DNIPROPETROVSK. Anticipate Russia may increase the intensity or breadth of aerial attacks (UAVs and ballistic missiles, KABs) to capitalize on global distraction, potentially with increased strategic bomber activity and continued reliance on Iranian Shaheds. Ensure layered AD coverage for critical infrastructure and population centers. Prioritize resources for ballistic missile interception.
  2. ADAPT TO NEW SHAHED TACTICS AND COUNTER DEEP DRONE STRIKES. Implement and refine TTPs to counter high-altitude, rapid-descent Shahed attacks based on observations from Kharkiv. This may require adjustments to sensor settings, interception altitudes, and engagement procedures. Develop and implement enhanced TTPs for protecting fixed Ukrainian C2 nodes and ammunition depots against confirmed Russian deep drone strikes. Leverage insights from Russian FPV drone requests to anticipate their tactical employment and develop countermeasures. (Supports CR 4, 5)
  3. ENHANCE BORDER SECURITY AGAINST DRONES & KABS/KARS. No change.
  4. PROTECT CIVILIAN LOGISTICS AND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE. No change.

• Ground Forces:

  1. MAINTAIN DISCIPLINED DEFENSIVE POSTURE IN POKROVSK, KHARKIV-KUPYANSK, SUMY, DNIPROPETROVSK, AND NORTHERN BORDER DIRECTIONS. No change. (Supports CR 2)
  2. PRIORITIZE ENGINEERING EQUIPMENT ACQUISITION. No change.
  3. CONTINUE COUNTER-UAV MEASURES & LOGISTICAL INNOVATION. No change.

• Information Operations (IO):

  1. IMMEDIATE & AGGRESSIVE: COUNTER RUSSIAN NARRATIVES ON MIDDLE EAST IMPACT AND RISING OIL PRICES, EXPOSE FALSE FLAGS AND FABRICATED THIRD-PARTY STATEMENTS (INCLUDING DEEPFAKES), AND ESPECIALLY "REGIME DESTRUCTION" RHETORIC AND WEAPONIZED CASUALTY COUNTS AND AID REJECTIONS, AND NEW GEOPOLITICAL IO. THIS MUST NOW DIRECTLY ADDRESS RUSSIAN DIPLOMATIC MANEUVERS, OVERTLY ANTI-SEMITIC/ANTI-ZIONIST RHETORIC (ESPECIALLY SOVIET-ERA PROPAGANDA), NEWLY FABRICATED PRETEXTS LIKE "ISRAELI AGENTS IN IRAN", AND AGGRESSIVELY REFUTE WEAPONIZED WESTERN MEDIA REPORTS ON AID TO UKRAINE. Proactively counter Russian attempts to leverage the Israel-Iran conflict (especially new overt Iranian missile strikes on Israel and sensationalized claims of nuclear tests/jihad, and alleged Israeli aircraft shootdowns, including unverified claims of explosions/fires at Ben Gurion Airport/Tel Aviv) to diminish international support for Ukraine. Emphasize that aggression in one region (Iran) emboldens aggression in others (Ukraine), and that Ukraine's fight for sovereignty remains a cornerstone of global stability. Explicitly highlight that rising oil prices, a direct consequence of Middle East instability, financially benefit Moscow and fund its war against Ukraine. Publicize the EU's €1 billion aid from Russian assets as a direct counter to this Russian strategy and proof of continued Western support. Crucially, immediately and forcefully debunk Russian attempts to link alleged Mossad covert operations to Iranian internal events (e.g., "Israeli agents in Iran" with container-launched drones), exposing this as a fabrication and a dangerous false flag justification. Most critically, expose and debunk the fabricated "Donald Trump" social media post and any new attributed Trump statements (including deepfakes) as a sophisticated Russian disinformation tactic, highlighting its clear alignment with Russian interests. Forcefully condemn and expose the overt anti-Semitic/anti-Zionist rhetoric (e.g., Kukryniksy cartoons linking Israel to Nazism, Elon Musk/Jew claims) being amplified by Russian channels, tracing its origin and specific authors where possible. Systematically expose the hypocrisy of Putin's diplomatic statements regarding the Middle East: his condemnation of "unprovoked strikes on a sovereign state" and "violations of international law" (against Israel) must be immediately contrasted with Russia's own full-scale invasion of Ukraine, its unprovoked aggression, and its egregious violations of international law and human rights. His condolences for civilian casualties must be juxtaposed with Russia's deliberate targeting of Ukrainian civilians. This is a critical opportunity to turn Russian diplomatic maneuvers against them. Immediately and robustly counter any narratives, especially those amplified from Western sources, that suggest a reduction or cessation of US/Western military aid to Ukraine. Reiterate that support remains strong and is a long-term commitment. (Supports CR 1, 3)
  2. RAPID DEBUNKING OF MISINFORMATION. Establish a rapid response mechanism to immediately debunk unverified and sensationalized claims propagated by Russian state media and milbloggers regarding the Middle East conflict (e.g., F-35 shootdowns, claims of Tel Aviv "burning" unless confirmed by BDA, claims of explosions/fires at Ben Gurion Airport/Tel Aviv or other Israeli civilian/military targets, hits on specific Israeli HQs). Highlight these as deliberate Russian disinformation tactics intended to distract from Ukraine and undermine support.
  3. PROMOTE UKRAINIAN SUCCESSES AND RESILIENCE: No change.

• Diplomatic/Inter-Agency:

  1. IMMEDIATE & PROACTIVE: ENGAGE KEY PARTNERS ON SUSTAINED SUPPORT AND COUNTERING RUSSIAN DIPLOMATIC MANIPULATION, ANTI-SEMITIC/ANTI-ZIONIST RHETORIC, AND WEAPONIZED AID NARRATIVES. Ukrainian diplomatic missions should immediately engage with US, EU, and other key partners to highlight the potential for the Middle East escalation (especially new overt Iranian missile strikes on Israel and sensationalized claims of nuclear tests/jihad, including unverified claims of explosions/fires at Ben Gurion Airport/Tel Aviv) to divert attention or resources, and to advocate for continued, robust military and financial support for Ukraine. Explicitly present Russia's high-level diplomatic intervention and his selective condemnation of Israel as a calculated maneuver to exploit the crisis, undermine Western unity, and bolster Russia's influence, while completely disregarding its own flagrant violations of international law in Ukraine. Specifically highlight and seek strong international condemnation of the anti-Semitic/anti-Zionist rhetoric emerging from Russia's information space, linking it to the Kremlin's overall objectives. Proactively engage partners to counter Russian narratives (including those from Western media) that suggest a reduction in military aid to Ukraine, ensuring clear, unified messaging on continued support. (Supports CR 1, 3)
  2. COORDINATE WITH ALLIES ON IO STRATEGY: No change. (Supports CR 1, 3)
  3. INTERNATIONAL CONDEMNATION OF CIVILIAN TARGETING. No change.
  4. ADDRESS BELARUS THREAT. No change. (Supports CR 2)
  5. DIPLOMATIC INQUIRY ON AZERBAIJAN TRANSIT. No change. (Supports CR 6).

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