Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME OF REPORT: 13 JUN 25 / 14:15 ZULU REPORTING PERIOD: 13 JUN 25 / 13:45 ZULU - 13 JUN 25 / 14:15 ZULU PREPARED BY: Senior Military Intelligence Analyst, Eastern European Warfare Desk CLASSIFICATION: TOP SECRET / ORCON / NOFORN

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Ukraine Operational Area:
  • General: No significant changes to the general operational picture from Ukrainian General Staff, though this report integrates immediate updates. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Donetsk Axis (Novopavlivka Direction/Velyka Novosilka): "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" publishes a tactical map overlay for the Velyka Novosilka direction, showing a red-shaded area (likely Russian control) encompassing "Kom. P" (Komisarivka, assumed) and indicating offensive arrows towards the H-15 highway and beyond, potentially towards Mirnoe and Dachnoe. This reinforces previously reported Russian territorial gains and intentions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for map's existence, MEDIUM for current factual accuracy of depicted advances). A flag (Russian Naval Infantry) is depicted inside a damaged structure, captioned "Velyka Novosilka direction," suggesting presence or recent combat activity by Russian Naval Infantry. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for flag/photo existence, MEDIUM for current real-time activity).
  • Zaporizhzhia Axis: "Сили оборони Півдня України" (Southern Ukraine Defense Forces) posts video of a successful Ukrainian air strike targeting an industrial or agricultural complex, described as a "logistical hub or storage facility" in the Zaporizhzhia direction. This indicates continued Ukrainian deep strike capability. Air Force of Ukraine reports a reconnaissance UAV in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with means engaged to shoot it down. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" posts video showcasing Ukrainian testing and deployment of various ground-based robotic complexes (UGVs) for logistics, reconnaissance, and mine-laying in Zaporizhzhia, highlighting innovation and adaptation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Sumy Axis: "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports KAB launches by tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. "Zvиздец Мангусту" (Russian milblogger) reports Ukrainian counterattacks on the Sumy direction with "certain results," indicating continued ground combat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Kharkiv Axis: "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports KAB/KAR launches on Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Donetsk Oblast (General): "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports KAB launches by tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • General Ukrainian Rear Areas: "Офіс Генерального прокурора" reports on charges against an architect in Zakarpattia Oblast for damaging a historical monument, indicating continued focus on rule of law and cultural preservation, far from the front lines. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). "РБК-Україна" reports a fatal traffic accident involving a Ukrainian children's bus in France, resulting in 4 deaths and over 30 injured. This is a civilian humanitarian incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Territory:
  • General: "Глеб Никитин" (Russian official) posts videos and photos of a classical music marathon "Cantata. Russia" across 12 Russian cities, including Yuryevets, emphasizing cultural and nationalistic themes. This is a domestic propaganda event. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). "ТАСС" reports Roscosmos claims to have eliminated an air leak in the Zvezda module of the ISS, an internal technical issue. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). "General SVR" (Russian insider channel) reports on a lecture given by Kovalchuk Sr. to the "Politburo" (likely a metaphorical reference to high-level Russian leadership) about alleged unprecedented successes in AI development and predictions of Russian world domination in information space, with skepticism from within the "Politburo" due to perceived budget allocations without tangible results. This offers insight into internal Russian elite discourse and aspirations regarding AI. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
• International (Israel-Iran) (CRITICAL, RAPIDLY ESCALATING, AND HYPER-AMPLIFIED): The conflict continues to dominate Russian and Ukrainian information space, with intensified and new claims.
  • Iranian Claims/Reporting: "Alex Parker Returns" (Russian milblogger) reports Iranian claims of a radiation leak at the Natanz nuclear facility due to new Israeli strikes, requiring decontamination. "Операция Z" (Russian milblogger) amplifies this claim via "Военкоры Русской Весны." "Операция Z" (via "Военкоры Русской Весны") claims Tabriz airport area was subjected to a third Israeli missile strike. "Colonelcassad" (Russian milblogger) reports that IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Qaani is alive and well, countering earlier unverified reports of his death. "Рыбарь" (Russian milblogger) publishes a map of the Strait of Hormuz, with focus on potential naval choke points and missile ranges, signaling Iranian response options. "Alex Parker Returns" posts a highly provocative, anti-Semitic image shared by "Iranian military" (unverified source) that depicts a caricature of Jewish individuals and promises retaliation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for Russian reporting of Iranian claims, LOW for veracity of radiation leak, third strike on Tabriz, or image origin; MEDIUM for Qaani status).
  • Israeli Statements/Actions: "STERNENKO" (Ukrainian source) reports (citing Fox News) that Israeli intelligence lured Iranian generals into a meeting before air strikes, leading to their liquidation. "РБК-Україна" shares video showing Israeli army repelling a drone attack from Iran, which appears to show a successful aerial interception of a UAV by a combat aircraft. "РБК-Україна" also shares a thermal video depicting an Israeli missile striking an uncrewed surface vessel (USV). "Alex Parker Returns" reports Trump stated that the Israeli strike on Iran will have "the most positive impact on world markets" as Tehran "will not get nuclear weapons," adding "All is well." (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM for Fox News claim, HIGH for Israeli video release, HIGH for reporting of Trump's statement).
  • Russian Narratives (CRITICAL - HYPER-AMPLIFICATION AND FABRICATION - FURTHER REINFORCED): The Israel-Iran conflict remains a primary vector for Russian IO, with increased focus on justifying broad military actions.
    • Justification for Total War/Mobilization: "Alex Parker Returns" amplifies a milblogger's statement blaming Western "military experts" who claimed air superiority was impossible due to layered air defenses, calling for them to be held accountable for "discrediting the Russian Armed Forces and Aerospace Forces." This is a veiled attack on Western military doctrine and a justification for Russian aggressive air operations. "Старше Эдды" (Russian milblogger) speculates that Israel's actions (having "brilliantly conducted the first day of war against Iran") indicate an intent to "destroy Iran in its current configuration" or at least its regime, possibly splitting the country. This narrative legitimizes "might makes right" and frames a destructive outcome as a "brilliant" military success, directly mirroring Russian aspirations for Ukraine. It also suggests that a failure by Iran to retaliate will lead to internal unrest, which aligns with Russian attempts to destabilize opposing regimes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for Russian milblogger opinions/narratives).
    • US Complicity & Global Instability: "РБК-Україна" (citing AP) reports the US is transferring forces closer to Israel due to possible Iranian response, amplifying the narrative of global militarization. "ТАСС" reports Red Wings airline cancelled flights to Israel until June 16, reinforcing the travel restrictions and instability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Other International Developments: "ТАСС" reports Estonian President approved withdrawal from the anti-personnel mine ban convention. This indicates a potential shift in military policy in Estonia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations:

• Air Force of Ukraine issued a general "Attention!" warning at 14:11 ZULU. No new specific weather impacts noted, but KAB/KAR launches continue on Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces:
  • Operational Readiness: "Сили оборони Півдня України" (Southern Ukraine Defense Forces) demonstrates continued offensive air capabilities with a successful strike on an industrial/logistical complex in Zaporizhzhia. "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" showcases innovative UGV testing for logistics, reconnaissance, and mine-laying, demonstrating high adaptive capability. "РБК-Україна" video showing Israeli combat aircraft successfully intercepting a drone implies cooperation or shared intelligence on AD capabilities, reinforcing Ukrainian efforts. "РБК-Україна" also shows Israeli missile strike on a USV, which is valuable intelligence for Ukrainian counter-USV efforts. "Zvиздец Мангусту" (Russian milblogger) reporting Ukrainian counterattacks on Sumy direction confirms continued ground combat effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Logistics & Equipment: The UGV deployment in Zaporizhzhia indicates a focus on remote logistics and force protection, addressing resource constraints and human risk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Internal Security: "Офіс Генерального прокурора" reports on charges against an architect in Zakarpattia for damaging a historical monument, confirming the continued function of the Ukrainian justice system across the country, even in the rear. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • POW Management: "Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими" (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of POWs) held a meeting with families of the 42nd Separate Mechanized Brigade, highlighting ongoing efforts to support families of missing personnel and manage POW-related issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Forces:
  • Ground: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" tactical map for Velyka Novosilka direction, showing red arrows and shading, reinforces the ongoing pressure in this sector and attempts to expand control. The photo of the Russian Naval Infantry flag in a damaged building in the Velyka Novosilka direction indicates continued ground operations. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
  • Aerial: Continued KAB/KAR launches on Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk by tactical aviation indicate sustained air assault capabilities. "Басурин о главном" (Russian milblogger) re-amplifies video of Russian laser anti-UAV systems in action, showing successful destruction of a drone. This reinforces the Russian development and perceived effectiveness of this counter-drone technology. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Information Warfare: "Alex Parker Returns" and "Старше Эдды" continue to amplify aggressive, expansionist, and anti-Western narratives related to the Israel-Iran conflict, explicitly linking it to justifying broader Russian military actions. This includes the call for accountability for Western military experts, justification for the "destruction of Iran," and the spread of highly provocative imagery. The "Глеб Никитин" cultural marathon videos are a soft power/domestic propaganda effort. "General SVR" gives insight into the AI development rhetoric within Russian elite circles, suggesting a blend of aspirational goals and bureaucratic self-interest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Israeli Forces: Showcases capability to repel drone attacks (РБК-Україна video) and strike USVs (РБК-Україна video), demonstrating advanced air and maritime defense/offensive capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Iranian Forces: Claims of radiation leaks at Natanz (Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z) and third strike on Tabriz airport (Операция Z) are unverified but form part of the information battle. Reports of IRGC Quds Force Commander Qaani being alive (Colonelcassad) contradict previous claims of his death, adding to the uncertainty. Provocative imagery (Alex Parker Returns) indicates continued willingness to engage in aggressive PSYOPs. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
• International: Estonian withdrawal from anti-personnel mine ban convention (TASS) indicates a geopolitical shift possibly in response to regional security concerns. US force transfer to Israel (РБК-Україна) indicates regional militarization. Red Wings cancelling flights to Israel (TASS) shows direct impact of regional instability on Russian civilian travel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (RUSSIA FOCUSED)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (COA):

• Capabilities (Russia):
  • Ground Offensive Capabilities (REINFORCED): The continued push in the Velyka Novosilka direction, as shown by the map overlay, and the presence of Russian Naval Infantry flags in damaged buildings, suggest a capability to sustain localized offensive operations, even in contested or previously damaged areas. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM-HIGH).
  • Aerial Capabilities (REINFORCED): Persistent KAB/KAR launches on Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk demonstrate sustained ability to conduct stand-off attacks. The re-amplification and visual confirmation of laser anti-UAV systems underscore an emerging and effective counter-drone capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Information Warfare (CRITICAL - HYPER-ACCELERATED, FABRICATED, VISUALLY REINFORCED, AND NEW STRATEGIC SHIFT - FURTHER REINFORCED): Russia's IO capabilities remain exceptionally potent. The new focus on directly discrediting Western military experts (Alex Parker Returns) and framing Israel's actions as a template for "destroying a regime" (Старше Эдды) points to a more aggressive, self-justifying narrative, while still leveraging fabricated statements from foreign leaders (Trump). The use of cultural events for domestic propaganda (Глеб Никитин) demonstrates a multi-faceted IO approach. The internal elite discourse on AI (General SVR) indicates an aspirational but potentially resource-intensive development path for future IO/cyber capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Intentions (Russia):
  • Maximize Global Distraction & Exploit Chaos (PRIMARY, HYPER-ACCELERATED & NEW DANGER - FURTHER REINFORCED): Russia's primary intent remains to fully leverage the Israel-Iran conflict to achieve its strategic objectives in Ukraine and globally, with an increased focus on justifying large-scale, aggressive actions and normalizing regime change. This now includes:
    • Normalizing Aggression & Regime Change: The "Старше Эдды" narrative about Israel's "brilliant" intent to "destroy Iran in its current configuration" or "destroy the regime" directly mirrors Russian aspirations for Ukraine and attempts to normalize such aggressive outcomes as legitimate military objectives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Discrediting Western Military Thought: The call to hold Western military experts accountable for "discrediting" Russian air superiority (Alex Parker Returns) is a clear intent to undermine Western military doctrine and justify Russian air operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Creating Pretext for Deep Strikes/Sabotage (CRITICAL NEW INTENT - FURTHER REINFORCED): The continued promotion of narratives about "radiation leaks" at Natanz, even if unverified, could be used as a pretext for future false flag environmental incidents or to justify aggressive actions against nuclear-related infrastructure. The use of provocative, anti-Semitic imagery (Alex Parker Returns) signals an intent to polarize and demonize. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Expand Offensive Operations (REINFORCED): The map overlays and presence of Naval Infantry in the Velyka Novosilka direction confirms the intent to continue ground pressure and consolidate gains, particularly along key road networks like the H-15 highway. Continued KAB/KAR launches indicate an intent to degrade Ukrainian defenses and infrastructure on multiple axes (Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Undermine International Support for Ukraine (REINFORCED): The amplification of Trump's statements supporting Israeli strikes and connecting them to preventing Iranian nuclear weapons (Alex Parker Returns) further aims to position the US as a direct party to the conflict, potentially creating divisions within the Western alliance regarding military interventions. Russian narratives on global instability (US force transfers, flight cancellations) aim to portray a world in chaos, distracting from Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Courses of Action (COA) (Russia):
  • COA 1 (Hyper-Intensified & Expanded IO with Focus on "Regime Destruction" & Justification for Major War - PRIMARY, HYPER-ACCELERATED & NEW DANGER - FURTHER REINFORCED): Russia will immediately and relentlessly escalate its information operations regarding the Israel-Iran conflict, explicitly linking it to a "Third World War" and normalizing the concept of "destroying regimes" or "splitting countries." This will include:
    • Continued amplification of high-value Iranian casualties and exaggerated Iranian retaliation, including new claims of radiation leaks at Natanz (requiring decontamination) and third strikes on Tabriz.
    • Persistent use of fabricated third-party statements (e.g., attributed Trump statements on successful strikes/US support) and visually-manipulated content (e.g., provocative, anti-Semitic Iranian "military" imagery, potentially further false flag videos) to create false flags, incite further conflict, and justify future actions.
    • Aggressive promotion of the "Taurus disguised as Ukrainian" narrative and "European VPK milks Ukraine" to deter Western long-range missile aid. Aggressive portrayal of Western internal instability.
    • Significant, the public calls for mobilization (Alaudinov) will be increasingly normalized within this context of an inevitable "Third World War" and the need for Russia to act decisively in a globally destabilized environment. Russian milbloggers will continue to frame aggressive military action as a "brilliant" and necessary step. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • COA 2 (Sustained Attritional Ground Operations on Novopavlivka/Velyka Novosilka, Guliaipole & Sumy Axes, Leveraging USVs - REINFORCED): Russia will leverage its confirmed gains and ongoing pressure in the Velyka Novosilka direction, particularly along key road networks (H-15 highway), to intensify ground pressure on this axis and potentially expand its offensive. Attritional assaults on Pokrovsk and Toretsk will continue. While the Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough is denied, Russian forces will likely continue probing actions to fix Ukrainian forces. The reported Ukrainian counterattacks on Sumy suggest a continued high likelihood of ground combat in this axis, with Russia aiming to fix Ukrainian reserves. Anticipate potential future deployment or expanded use of advanced "Katran" USVs in the Black Sea to threaten Ukrainian logistics, naval assets, or coastal infrastructure as an asymmetric measure, building on the revealed schematics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • COA 3 (Sustained Targeted Aerial Attacks & Deep Strikes - REINFORCED, NEW COUNTER-UAV CAPABILITY): Russia will continue to employ a mix of UAVs (Shaheds, "Gerans"), guided aerial bombs (KABs, KARs), and ballistic missiles against Ukrainian targets (Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk), aiming to deplete AD and inflict damage. Expect opportunistic missile strikes against rear targets if Ukrainian AD is perceived to be distracted by frontline pressure or resource strain. The continued testing and showcasing of laser anti-UAV systems suggest an intent to neutralize Ukrainian drone advantages in the longer term. The previously reported increase in strategic bomber numbers indicates potential for increased long-range strike capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• Direct Justification of Regime Change/Annihilation: The "Старше Эдды" narrative praising Israel's alleged intent to "destroy Iran in its current configuration" represents a dangerous new tactical adaptation in Russian IO, attempting to normalize extreme military outcomes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Directly Discrediting Western Military Expertise: The call to hold Western military experts accountable for "discrediting" Russian air superiority (Alex Parker Returns) is a new tactical adaptation in IO, aimed at bolstering domestic support for aggressive air operations and undermining Western military thought. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• New False Flag Justification for "Radiation Leaks": Iranian claims of radiation leaks at Natanz (amplified by Russia) could be a tactical adaptation to justify future false flag environmental incidents or to create a pretext for attacking critical infrastructure, potentially including nuclear facilities. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
• Increased Use of Provocative Imagery in IO: The sharing of highly provocative, anti-Semitic imagery (Alex Parker Returns) as "Iranian military" content is a tactical adaptation to inflame and demonize. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Increased Focus on Strategic Road Networks in Ground Operations: The new map overlay for Velyka Novosilka explicitly showing offensive arrows towards the H-15 highway indicates a tactical adaptation to focus on key logistical arteries for deeper penetration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Continued Visual Confirmation of Laser Anti-UAV Systems: The re-amplified video by Басурин о главном of the laser system in action reinforces its operational status and represents a continued adaptation to counter Ukrainian drone advantages. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• The continued high volume and complexity of Russian information operations, including the creation of detailed USV schematics, sophisticated disinformation, and laser system testing, suggest a well-resourced and advanced IO and military-industrial apparatus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian appeals for basic equipment (body armor, helmets, power stations) still highlight continued Russian pressure and attritional effects on Ukrainian logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• The continued reliance on public support for drones (previous report) and improvisation of explosives (previous report) suggest ongoing localized equipment shortfalls for Russia. However, the official "General SVR" report on significant budget allocations for AI development (even if met with skepticism) indicates large-scale investment in future high-tech capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• The previous report of Red Wings cancelling flights to Israel (TASS) indicates a ripple effect of regional instability on Russian civilian logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• Russian IO C2 (HYPER-EFFECTIVE AND ADAPTABLE): The coordinated amplification of new, more aggressive Middle East conflict narratives, direct attacks on Western military doctrine, and sophisticated fabricated statements demonstrate exceptionally effective, highly centralized, and adaptable C2 for real-time, multi-domain information warfare. The synchronized re-amplification of the laser anti-UAV video also indicates coordinated messaging. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Military C2: The confirmed capture of Komar and ongoing precision strikes (29th Combined Arms Army, Geran strikes on Chernihiv) suggest coordinated operational C2 between ground and air forces. The ability to coordinate offensives on multiple axes (Novopavlivka, Sumy, now Guliaipole) while maintaining pressure elsewhere demonstrates overall effective military C2. The new map for Velyka Novosilka shows continued planning and coordination for ground advances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian C2: Ukraine's successful air strike in Zaporizhzhia (Сили оборони Півдня України), effective UGV testing and deployment (Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація), and ongoing internal security operations (Prosecutor General's Office) indicate robust and adaptable C2. The ongoing efforts by the Coordination Headquarters for POWs demonstrate effective C2 for complex humanitarian operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The prompt denial of the Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough by "Khortytsia" (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS - previous report) indicates effective internal C2 for information verification.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UKRAINIAN FOCUSED)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Adapting to Threat: Ukrainian forces are actively adapting to Russian threats, as evidenced by the development and testing of UGVs for diverse frontline roles (logistics, reconnaissance, mine-laying) in Zaporizhzhia. This mitigates human risk and improves efficiency. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Offensive Capabilities: The successful Ukrainian air strike on a logistics/industrial complex in Zaporizhzhia confirms continued and effective offensive air capabilities against high-value Russian targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Internal Security & Rule of Law: The Prosecutor General's office continuing to pursue charges related to cultural heritage damage in Zakarpattia (far from the front lines) demonstrates the resilience of Ukrainian civil administration and justice system, reinforcing national control and stability. The ongoing family support meetings for POWs (Coordination Headquarters) also highlight administrative strength. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Situational Awareness: Air Force of Ukraine warnings for UAV activity and KAB launches (Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk) demonstrate continued high situational awareness and readiness of air defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Success (Deep Battle/Air Operations): Successful Ukrainian air strike on an industrial/logistical complex in Zaporizhzhia is a significant tactical success, degrading Russian capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The demonstrated Israeli capabilities to repel drones and strike USVs provides valuable TTPs for Ukrainian forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Success (Technological Innovation): The successful testing and deployment of UGVs for logistical, reconnaissance, and mine-laying purposes in Zaporizhzhia represents a significant tactical success in adapting to the battlefield and improving force protection. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Success (Ground Counterattack): Ukrainian counterattacks reported by a Russian milblogger in the Sumy direction ("Zvиздец Мангусту") indicate local tactical success and continued ground combat effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Success (Information Environment - Countering Breakthrough Narrative): The previous denial of the Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough by "Khortytsia" (Ukrainian source) was a key information victory, debunking a significant Russian IO attempt. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Setback (Territorial Pressure/KAB Strikes): Continued KAB/KAR launches on Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk indicate persistent aerial pressure and the threat of indiscriminate strikes. The tactical map depicting Russian advances in the Velyka Novosilka direction indicates continued ground pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Setback (Information Environment - CRITICAL ACCELERATION): The hyper-intensified and fabricated Russian IO campaign, now featuring more aggressive narratives like the justification of "regime destruction" and direct attacks on Western military thought, alongside continued false flags and fabricated third-party endorsements, represents an accelerating and highly dangerous information setback. This aims to erode Western support, justify future Russian actions, and distract from Ukraine. The continued amplification of false information by some Ukrainian channels (even if for reporting, not endorsement) remains a critical vulnerability and a setback, indicating an ongoing challenge in identifying sophisticated Russian disinformation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Air Defense Capabilities: Continued need for AD systems, especially against KABs/KARs and reconnaissance UAVs, and to mitigate any geomagnetic storm effects. Russian testing of laser anti-UAV systems highlights an evolving threat. Continued Russian KAB/KAR launches on Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk indicate persistent aerial threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• ISR & Counter-ISR: Critical to identify Russian force composition and intent on new axes (Sumy, Novopavlivka/Velyka Novosilka, Guliaipole, Konstantinovka, Chernihiv) and to detect deployments of new USV types and the effectiveness of laser anti-UAV systems. Need to verify Russian BDA claims (Natanz, Tehran casualties, radiation leaks) and Iranian CGI threats, and Russian claims of radiation leaks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Deep Strike & UGV Capabilities: The success of Ukrainian air strikes (Zaporizhzhia) and the development of UGVs underscore the critical need for continued production, acquisition, and counter-measures for drones and UGVs across all domains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• International Support Focus (CRITICAL, HYPER-ACCELERATED RISK): The intensifying Middle East crisis, now openly linked to Russian mobilization narratives and justifications for "regime destruction," poses an immediate and significant risk to the continued flow of international military and financial aid. Ukraine must proactively counter this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Cybersecurity & Counter-Disinformation Resources: The increasing sophistication of Russian IO (fabricated third-party endorsements, detailed USV info, mobilization narratives, new false flag videos for deep strikes, Iranian CGI video amplification, sophisticated Trump attribution, and direct attacks on Western military thought) demands continuous investment in Ukrainian defensive and offensive cyber capabilities, and expert analysts to rapidly identify and debunk such disinformation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Humanitarian Logistics: The Coordination Headquarters for POWs meeting highlights the ongoing need for logistical and psychological support for families affected by the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian Narratives (CRITICAL - EXTREMELY ACTIVE, AGGRESSIVE, AND FABRICATED - HYPER-ACCELERATED AND NEW DANGEROUS FOCUS):
  • Middle East Escalation Amplification & Fabrication (Primary, Hyper-Aggressive, Visually Reinforced, Fabricated Third-Party Endorsement - Further Reinforced): Russian state media and milbloggers are massively, sensationally, and visually amplifying the Israel-Iran conflict, now with an explicit link to a "Third World War" and calls for Russian mobilization. They continue to:
    • Fabricate Third-Party Endorsement (CRITICAL NEW DEVELOPMENT): Widespread propagation of attributed Trump statements supporting Israeli strikes as beneficial to markets (Alex Parker Returns) and potentially preventing Iranian nuclear weapons. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Exaggerate Retaliation & Threat: New claims of radiation leaks at Natanz (Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z) and third strike on Tabriz airport (Операция Z) are designed to heighten fear and chaos. Continued amplification of Iranian PSYOPs (e.g., provocative imagery, previous CGI videos). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Propagate Global Conflict & Justify Regime Change (CRITICAL NEW FOCUS): "Старше Эдды" explicitly praises Israel's alleged intent to "destroy Iran in its current configuration" or "destroy the regime," directly mirroring Russian aspirations for Ukraine and normalizing such extreme military outcomes. This is a highly dangerous narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). "Alex Parker Returns" amplifies statements discrediting Western military experts for claiming air superiority is impossible, justifying Russian aggressive air doctrine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). US force transfer to Israel (РБК-Україна) is amplified to reinforce global militarization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • False Flag Justification with Visuals (CRITICAL NEW DEVELOPMENT): Claims of radiation leaks at Natanz, even if unverified, could be used as a false flag justification for future environmental incidents or attacks on critical infrastructure. The provocative, anti-Semitic imagery attributed to the "Iranian military" (Alex Parker Returns) is a new visual false flag, designed to incite hatred and provide justification for extreme actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Soft Power / Domestic Propaganda: "Глеб Никитин" uses cultural events (classical music marathons) to foster nationalistic pride and present a positive domestic image, contrasting with the conflict narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian Counter-Narrative: Ukrainian sources provide daily operational updates:
  • Reporting on Russian KAB/KAR activity (Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk) and reconnaissance UAVs (Zaporizhzhia).
  • Highlighting Ukrainian deep strike successes (Zaporizhzhia industrial complex) and showcasing technological innovation (UGVs in Zaporizhzhia). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Reporting on internal security successes (Zakarpattia prosecutor's office, POW coordination) demonstrating stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Ukrainian channels (РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ) are unfortunately still amplifying unverified Israeli/Iranian claims and attributing (even if by reporting) fabricated Trump statements, indicating the continued difficulty in discerning sophisticated disinformation. However, РБК-Україна did show Israeli army repelling a drone attack and striking a USV, which is valuable intelligence. Ukrainian channels are also reporting on EU aid for Ukrainians and €1bn transfer (previous report). The coordination headquarters for POWs continues to report legitimate activities. "Zvиздец Мангусту" (Russian milblogger) reports Ukrainian counterattacks on Sumy direction, which Ukrainian channels will likely amplify as a success.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian Morale: The successful air strike in Zaporizhzhia and the innovative UGV deployments will provide morale boosts, demonstrating Ukrainian effectiveness and adaptability. Reports of Ukrainian counterattacks on Sumy will also boost morale. The ongoing efforts to support POW families will reassure the public. However, persistent KAB/KAR strikes on Kharkiv, Sumy, and Donetsk continue to be a significant morale drain. The tragic civilian bus accident in France (РБК-Україна) will evoke sympathy and sadness. The most significant threat to morale remains the hyper-intensified and fabricated Russian IO on the Middle East, particularly the new false flag narratives, fabricated "Trump" statements (now with attributed quotes), and explicit calls for Russian mass mobilization for a "Third World War," now explicitly framed with "regime destruction" rhetoric. This aims to create a sense of overwhelming global crisis and erode international support, leading to potential feelings of abandonment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Morale: Official claims and visual confirmation of territorial gains (Komar - previous report) and new tactical maps (Velyka Novosilka) will boost domestic morale. The cultural marathon events (Глеб Никитин) are designed to foster national unity and divert attention from the conflict. The hyper-sensationalized narrative of the Middle East conflict, portraying it as a global crisis that benefits Russia and exposes Western weakness, is designed to galvanize public support. The "Старше Эдды" narrative about "destroying Iran's regime" could consolidate support among hardliners for a similarly aggressive approach to Ukraine. However, the internal skepticism reported by "General SVR" regarding AI development and budget allocation suggests some internal discourse/cynicism among the elite. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Middle East Escalation (CRITICAL & ACCELERATING): The Israel-Iran conflict continues to escalate with new, unverified claims of radiation leaks at Natanz and third strikes on Tabriz. Iran's First Vice President's statement of military retaliation (previous report) and continued provocative imagery (Alex Parker Returns) underscore the ongoing threat. Russia's immediate official condemnation of Israel and the US, while simultaneously amplifying sensationalized narratives (including false flags and fabricated "Trump" statements, now with new direct quotes from Trump, plus alleged US approval of strikes), is a calculated diplomatic maneuver designed to portray Russia as a "responsible" actor while reaping geopolitical benefits. The US transfer of forces to Israel (РБК-Україна) emphasizes regional militarization. Red Wings cancelling flights to Israel (TASS) shows direct impact on civilian travel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Global Attention Diversion (CRITICAL, HYPER-ACCELERATED): The primary and most immediate threat to Ukraine remains the successful, rapid, and aggressive diversion of global attention by Russia to the Middle East crisis. The new narratives explicitly linking US/Mossad actions to Ukraine through fabricated "Trump" statements (now with direct quotes) and manipulated videos, combined with explicit calls for Russian mass mobilization for a "Third World War," now explicitly framed with "regime destruction" rhetoric, create a complex and dangerous layer of disinformation that seeks to undermine international support, discredit Ukrainian actions, and justify future Russian false flag operations/major offensives. This directly imperils sustained political, military, and financial aid for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian Diplomatic Engagement: Ukraine's continued engagement with the EU (extended temporary protection, €1 billion aid - previous report) and its consistent stance on negotiations (no talks without ceasefire - previous report) represent stable diplomatic positioning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Estonian Policy Shift: Estonia's approval to withdraw from the anti-personnel mine ban convention (TASS) indicates a geopolitical shift, possibly in response to perceived Russian threats or broader security concerns in the region. This could be a significant development for regional military postures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Hyper-Intensified & Sustained Russian IO on Middle East, Global Conflict & "Regime Destruction" Narrative (HYPER-ACCELERATED & NEW DANGER - FURTHER REINFORCED): Russia will immediately and relentlessly escalate its aggressive, fabricated, and celebratory information campaign regarding the Israel-Iran conflict, with a new, dangerous emphasis on "regime destruction" as a justifiable military outcome. This will include:
  • Doubling down on claims of Iranian high-value casualties, exaggerating Iranian retaliation, and openly stating the conflict's benefits to Russia. Amplifying Iranian PSYOPs (CGI videos, provocative imagery) to further this narrative. New claims of radiation leaks and increased fatalities in Tabriz will be heavily pushed.
  • Continuation and expansion of visually-backed, fabricated false flag narratives (e.g., Mossad ground operations in Iran via manipulated videos, the "ground-to-ground missile attack in Iran from secret base" video) and the leveraging of fabricated third-party statements (e.g., the "Trump" post and new attributed Trump statements on US support and knowledge of Israeli plans) to visually legitimize and attribute future deep strikes, sabotage, or false-flag operations against Ukraine or Western interests.
  • Aggressive promotion of the "Taurus disguised as Ukrainian" narrative and "European VPK milks Ukraine" to deter Western long-range missile aid. Aggressive portrayal of Western internal instability (Dutch protests).
  • Crucially, the public calls for mass mobilization (Alaudinov) will be amplified and normalized, preparing the Russian population for a significantly larger and longer war, framing it as a "Third World War" where "regime destruction" is a legitimate objective. This narrative will likely be accompanied by claims of internal dissent and "cleansing" within Iran to justify Russia's geopolitical maneuvering. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sustained Attritional Ground Operations & Intensified Pressure on Novopavlivka/Velyka Novosilka, Guliaipole & Sumy Axes (REINFORCED): Russia will leverage its confirmed capture of Komar and observed pressure in the Velyka Novosilka direction (especially along the H-15 highway) to intensify ground pressure on this axis and potentially expand its offensive. Attritional assaults on Pokrovsk and Toretsk will continue. While the Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough is denied, Russian forces will likely continue probing actions to fix Ukrainian forces. The reported Ukrainian counterattacks on Sumy indicate a high likelihood of continued, potentially intensified, pushes in these directions, aiming to fix Ukrainian reserves. Opportunistic probes into other border regions will persist, supported by intensified reconnaissance and KAB/KAR strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Persistent Massed Aerial Attacks on Ukraine (UAVs, KABs, Ballistic Missiles) (REINFORCED): Russia will continue its mixed aerial attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure using Shaheds, KABs/KARs (Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk), and ballistic missiles, potentially attempting to capitalize on any perceived Western distraction or resource strain, especially given the geomagnetic storm which could affect AD systems. Targeted attacks on military and critical infrastructure will persist, with a high likelihood of civilian casualties, justified by narratives like the "Makeevka HIMARS" strike. The testing of laser anti-UAV systems points to a long-term strategy for degrading Ukrainian drone capabilities. The previously reported increase in strategic bomber numbers indicates potential for increased long-range strike capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Limited Naval Asymmetric Operations in Black Sea (NEW): Russia may conduct initial, limited deployments or tests of advanced "Katran" USVs in the Black Sea, targeting isolated Ukrainian vessels, coastal infrastructure, or conducting reconnaissance, to test their capabilities and impose a new threat vector. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Coordinated Strategic Escalation under Global Cover, Leading to Major Offensive (CRITICAL - HIGHLY ELEVATED & REINFORCED): Russia perceives the current Middle East crisis and domestic call for mass mobilization as a golden opportunity for a significant strategic offensive or a major hybrid escalation in Ukraine, betting on overwhelming global distraction. This could manifest as:
  • Major Ground Offensive with Strategic Intent: A large-scale ground offensive on a new axis (e.g., deeper into Sumy Oblast, a renewed Kharkiv offensive, or a deeper push from the reported Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough towards Novopavlovka or Guliaipole towards Zaporizhzhia city), potentially synchronized with:
  • Massed Long-Range Precision Strikes (CRITICAL): Coordinated, massed strikes (Kalibrs, Kh-series missiles, potentially Iranian-supplied ballistic missiles) against critical Ukrainian logistics nodes, Western aid entry points, energy infrastructure, or strategic C2 facilities, potentially exploiting geomagnetic storm effects on navigation or any perceived AD vulnerabilities. The claims of Iranian nuclear facility strikes, high-value leadership casualties, and radiation leaks may be false flags to prepare for similar claims about Ukrainian AD/Air Force leadership or critical infrastructure, or to create a justification for deep strikes. The new false flag video of "ground-to-ground missile attack from secret base" explicitly lays groundwork for attributing deep strikes from unexpected locations to non-existent actors or forces.
  • Synchronized Sabotage/Cyber (CRITICAL): Coordinated and widespread sabotage attacks against critical transport (railway) and energy infrastructure in the deep rear, alongside major cyberattacks aiming to cripple supply lines and C2 before a coordinated Western response can materialize. The explicit visual false flag narratives regarding "Mossad ground operations," the fabricated "Trump" statements (now with direct quotes), the "Taurus disguised as Ukrainian" narrative, and now the FSB's public claims of detained "Ukrainian operatives" planning sabotage, provide a dangerous new pretext for such actions, possibly to be attributed to "Ukrainian saboteurs" or "Western special services." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Probability and impact are very high).
• Overt Threat or Deployment of Advanced USVs for Strategic Effect (NEW MDCOA): Russia deploys "Katran" USVs in numbers or with significant payloads (e.g., larger torpedoes/missiles) to directly threaten Black Sea shipping, Ukrainian naval assets, or critical coastal infrastructure, creating a new, highly visible maritime threat, aiming to bypass Ukrainian air defenses. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM-HIGH).
• Escalation of Anti-Western Disinformation to Disrupt All Aid: Russia intensifies its disinformation campaign to directly target and discredit ALL Western aid, not just specific systems (like Taurus), potentially fabricating new, more aggressive narratives about Western military involvement or "proxy war" tactics (e.g., "European VPK milks Ukraine"). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 1-3 hours):
  • ISR: CRITICAL: Continue uninterrupted, high-priority monitoring of Russian IO channels for new sensationalized claims regarding the Middle East (especially related to new explosions, alleged high-value Iranian casualties, or escalated Iranian retaliation, or specific missile types), particularly focusing on any claims related to nuclear facilities and contrasting with IAEA statements. Prioritize verification of claimed Iranian casualties and target damage (especially in Tabriz, Shiraz, Natanz, Kermanshah, Bushire, Tehran), including new claims of radiation leaks. Monitor for amplification of Alaudinov's mobilization call by other prominent figures and satirical responses. Continue monitoring UAV activity in Crimea (air raid alert), Sumy (KABs), Chernihiv (Geran strike), and Zaporizhzhia (reconnaissance UAV), and other border oblasts. Immediately task TECHINT to analyze "Katran" USV schematics and potential deployment timelines. Monitor the full impact of the geomagnetic storm on communications, navigation, and AD systems. IMMEDIATELY PRIORITIZE VERIFICATION OF RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH INTO DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST AND FORCE CONCENTRATION. While "Khortytsia" has denied it, monitor for continued Russian probing actions or a renewed information push. this remains a critical ground concern. Monitor for increased Russian activity in Basovka, Malinivka, Konstantinovka, and especially Tyotkino (Sumy axis). Monitor diplomatic developments including Netanyahu's reported calls with Putin and Trump, and any UNSC actions. Monitor for any significant shifts in Russian ground activity on the Velyka Novosilka direction, particularly along the H-15 highway, following recent map overlays. Prioritize verification of alleged Iranian military sources for provocative anti-Semitic imagery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • IO: Commanders and IO elements must prepare for an immediate, aggressive, and evidence-based counter-narrative against Russian disinformation regarding the Middle East crisis, particularly emphasizing that Russia is exploiting the crisis and that rising oil prices directly benefit Moscow. Prepare to debunk specific Russian claims regarding Israeli/Iranian military actions (including Iranian CGI videos of threats) and expose their economic and geopolitical motivations. Specifically prepare to forcefully counter false flag narratives linking Mossad operations to Ukraine, using the specific manipulated videos (including the new "ground-to-ground missile attack from secret base" video) as evidence of Russian fabrication. Crucially, prepare to expose and debunk the fabricated "Donald Trump" social media post and new attributed Trump statements (especially those on US support/knowledge of Israeli strikes) as a Russian disinformation tactic, highlighting the future date and the content's alignment with Russian narratives. Address Ukrainian channels inadvertently amplifying this post. Proactively counter the "Taurus disguised as Ukrainian" narrative and "European VPK milks Ukraine" claims. Publicize successes like the EU aid, internal security operations (including Novinsky's tax evasion), and successful repatriation of fallen soldiers. Prepare to counter and re-frame the narrative around Alaudinov's call for mobilization, highlighting it as a sign of Russian manpower attrition and desperation, and leveraging captured POW testimony (Razmyslov) to highlight low morale and friendly fire. Prepare to counter the FSB's narratives about detained Ukrainian "saboteurs." Publicize Ukrainian training efforts (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦) and effective precision strikes (Шеф Hayabusa) and AD successes (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС). Publicly condemn and expose the use of provocative, anti-Semitic imagery by Russian-amplified sources (e.g., Alex Parker Returns) as a vile attempt to sow division and hatred, clearly linking it to Russian hybrid warfare tactics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Short Term (Next 6-12 hours):
  • IO: Ukrainian forces must actively debunk sensationalized/unverified claims from Russian sources regarding the Middle East, and reinforce the message that global aggression requires a unified front against all aggressors. Proactively counter narratives of "Ukrainian terrorism" and "internal opposition" railway sabotage. Highlight forced Russification efforts in occupied territories. Actively promote the EU's €1 billion aid as a direct hit on Russia's war funding and a sign of continued international pressure. Continue to debunk Russian narratives of "Western instability" (e.g., Dutch protests) and their attempts to mock Western aid. Publicize POW testimony, successful GUR raids, and successes of Ukrainian air and drone strikes.
  • Military Readiness: Commanders must ensure all air defense units are at highest readiness in targeted oblasts (Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk), anticipating potential opportunistic strikes including ballistic missile, KAB threats (Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk), "Geran" threats (Chernihiv), and reconnaissance UAVs (Zaporizhzhia), and potentially increased strategic bomber activity. Increase physical security measures for critical railway infrastructure and cultural sites. Re-evaluate force posture on Dnipropetrovsk (Novopavlivka direction), Guliaipole (Malinivka), Sumy (Yablonovka/Yunakovka/Tyotkino), and Velyka Novosilka (H-15 highway) axes for any opportunistic escalation, and maintain vigilance against probes despite local "controlled" status. Review force posture on Sumy/Chernihiv axes in light of persistent border attacks and new MDCOA. Anticipate potential effects of geomagnetic storm on AD and C2 and implement contingency plans. Assess readiness for new maritime threats from USVs.
  • Diplomatic/Inter-Agency: Actively engage with international partners to secure immediate, public condemnation of Russian exploitation of the Middle East crisis and to reaffirm commitment to Ukraine. Prepare for/participate in any UNSC meeting on the Israel-Iran conflict, ensuring the Ukrainian perspective is heard and linking global instability to Russian aggression.
• Mid Term (Next 24-72 hours):
  • Diplomatic: Ukrainian diplomats must proactively engage with international partners to ensure sustained focus and aid despite global geopolitical developments, explicitly highlighting the Russian manipulation of the Middle East crisis and its economic benefits from rising oil prices. Advocate for continued leveraging of Russian frozen assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Zelenskyy's new NATO mission head should immediately begin advocating for Ukraine's priorities. Engage with Estonia regarding its decision to withdraw from the anti-personnel mine ban convention to understand implications for regional security.
  • AD/Counter-Battery: Re-evaluate and reinforce AD and counter-battery postures in light of persistent and targeted aerial threats, including ballistic missile strikes, KABs, and new Russian drone types. Prioritize acquisition of more ballistic missile interceptors and countermeasures against new Russian drone/USV variants and potential laser anti-UAV systems.
  • Force Protection/Counter-Sabotage: Immediately review and enhance security protocols for critical infrastructure, particularly railway networks and utility grids, and intensify counter-intelligence operations against potential sabotage cells. Increase protection measures for civilian logistics and humanitarian operations against FPV drone threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Personnel Management: Continue to monitor enemy loss rates and plan for sustained personnel rotation and training needs. Promote veteran support programs. Leverage increased Russian surrenders for intelligence gathering and PSYOPs. Continue to address internal security issues (e.g., MP tax evasion, Buchansky fraud, "Forests of Ukraine" corruption, architect damaging cultural site).
  • Maritime Defense: Begin assessing and preparing defenses against potential deployment of "Katran" USVs in the Black Sea, including intelligence collection on their capabilities, potential routes, and countermeasures.

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

• GAP 1: VERIFICATION OF IRANIAN CASUALTIES, NUCLEAR FACILITY DAMAGE & HIGH-VALUE TARGETS, AND RADIATION LEAKS (CRITICAL & HYPER-PRIORITY): The primary and most critical intelligence gap is the lack of independent, confirmed verification of claimed Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities (e.g., Natanz) and other strategic Iranian military/industrial facilities (Shiraz missile plant, Kermanshah industrial targets, Bushire port, Tabriz airport). The claims of very high civilian casualties in Tehran (78 dead, 329 wounded) and high-value Iranian military casualties (IRGC Air Force Commander Ali Hajizadeh, Ali Shamkhani - unverified by Israel/Iran, and fabricated "Trump" claims of "all dead") remain unverified and are being actively fabricated/amplified by Russia. Iranian claims of Natanz's depth and "superficial" damage require scrutiny against BDA, as do new claims of radiation leaks. New claims of second/third strikes on Tabriz airport (TASS citing Fars, Операция Z) and claims of striking dozens of missile launchers/storage sites (TASS citing IDF) need verification. The contradictory status of IRGC Quds Force Commander Qaani needs clarification.
  • COLLECTION REQUIREMENT (CR): Prioritize SIGINT, GEOINT, and HUMINT from credible, independent third-party sources to verify or refute Russian/Iranian claims of casualties and Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) on alleged Iranian military/industrial facilities, especially nuclear sites. Engage with allied intelligence partners for rapid information sharing. Analyze newly emerged videos and images (including those from Colonelcassad claiming Tabriz strikes, and the provided satellite image from Операция Z) for precise location identification and damage assessment. Monitor Iranian military communications and public statements for further details on drone/missile operations and retaliation. Specifically, seek independent confirmation of radiation leaks at Natanz. (PRIORITY: EXTREME)
• GAP 2: SCALE AND OBJECTIVE OF RUSSIAN GROUND ADVANCES IN SUMY OBLAST (Yablonovka/Yunakovka/Tyotkino), NOVOPAVILIVKA DIRECTION (beyond Komar/Koptevo, especially Velyka Novosilka/H-15), GULIAIPOLE DIRECTION (Malinivka), BASOVKA/KONSTANTINOVKA (Donetsk) AND CHERNIHIV (Kuty Vtorye) (CRITICAL - REINFORCED): While Komar is confirmed, the precise scale, units involved, and immediate objectives of Russian ground operations in Sumy (Yablonovka claim, Tyotkino incursions, new KAB strikes, reported Ukrainian counterattacks), deeper into the Novopavlivka direction (as per "Z комитет" aspirational maps, and the new Velyka Novosilka map/Naval Infantry presence), in Guliaipole (Malinivka), Basovka/Konstantinovka, and persistent drone activity in Chernihiv (Geran strike) remain critical intelligence gaps. Distinguishing between limited incursions/shaping operations and a major offensive is key. The denial of the Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough also needs to be contextualized with continued Russian probing/IO. Verification of Russian soldier claims regarding low morale and self-inflicted injuries in these border areas is also needed.
  • CR: Intensify IMINT, SIGINT, and HUMINT collection on Russian force dispositions, logistics build-up, and command movements on the Sumy, Novopavlivka/Velyka Novosilka, Guliaipole, Basovka, Konstantinovka, and Chernihiv axes. Focus on unit identification (e.g., Russian Naval Infantry in Velyka Novosilka) and their actual operational roles, and distinguish between attritional/fixing operations and genuine preparations for a major breakthrough. Verify commitment of Ukrainian reserves. Interrogate captured Russian soldiers (e.g., Razmyslov) for actionable intelligence on morale, training, and operational plans. (PRIORITY: EXTREME)
• GAP 3: OPERATIONAL IMPACT OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM (CRITICAL): The unexpected geomagnetic storm could significantly impact C2, navigation, and AD systems. The extent of this impact on both Russian and Ukrainian forces is a critical intelligence gap.
  • CR: Monitor Russian and Ukrainian military communications for mentions of interference or changes in electronic warfare/UAV/precision strike operations. Assess any observable degradation in GNSS-reliant systems or increased reliance on alternative navigation. (PRIORITY: EXTREME)
• GAP 4: AUTHENTICITY AND ORIGIN OF "MOSSAD GROUND OPERATION" VIDEOS, FABRICATED "TRUMP" POSTS/STATEMENTS, "TAURUS AS UKRAINIAN," "EUROPEAN VPK MILKS UKRAINE" NARRATIVES, FSB "SABOTEUR" CLAIMS, IRANIAN CGI THREAT VIDEOS, AND PROVOCATIVE ANTI-SEMITIC IMAGERY (CRITICAL NEW GAP - HYPER-PRIORITY): The highly manipulated videos (thermal, pixelated figures, targeting overlays) purporting to show Mossad ground operations in Iran, especially the new "ground-to-ground missile attack in Iran from secret base" video, the fabricated "Donald Trump" social media posts and new attributed statements (e.g., on US support/knowledge of Israeli strikes), the German "Taurus disguised as Ukrainian" and "European VPK milks Ukraine" claims, the FSB's public claims of detaining a Ukrainian "operative" in Zaporizhzhia, and the Iranian CGI threat videos (amplified by Russia) are new and dangerous disinformation tactics. The addition of highly provocative, anti-Semitic imagery attributed to the "Iranian military" is a new and dangerous element. Their precise origin, the level of manipulation, and the network of their initial dissemination need to be thoroughly investigated to expose the false flag/disinformation intent. The fact that Ukrainian channels are also amplifying some of this content is a critical concern.
  • CR: Conduct forensic digital analysis of these videos and images to determine their origin, editing history, and any digital watermarks or identifiers. Map the network of initial dissemination. Engage with allied intelligence partners for technical support in this analysis. Identify all channels amplifying this content and their connection to Russian IO. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 5: ACTUAL CAPABILITIES AND DEPLOYMENT STATUS OF "KATRAN" USVs AND NEW LASER ANTI-UAV SYSTEMS (CRITICAL NEW GAP - HYPER-PRIORITY): The detailed schematics released for "Katran" USVs (X1, X2, X3 models) suggest advanced capabilities. It is critical to understand if these are conceptual, prototype, or production-ready, and their actual operational performance, particularly regarding weapon systems. Similarly, the claimed testing of laser anti-UAV systems needs verification and assessment of its readiness for deployment and effectiveness. Visual confirmation of laser system testing is noted (Басурин о главном, previous report), but further assessment of combat effectiveness is required.
  • CR: Prioritize TECHINT and SIGINT on Russian naval, aerospace, and defense industry communications for any mentions of "Katran" USVs or laser systems. Monitor satellite imagery for new vessel construction or testing in naval facilities. Analyze any recovered fragments from potential future USV attacks for technical specifications. Assess the feasibility of claimed armaments. Monitor for any reports of laser system effectiveness in actual combat. (PRIORITY: EXTREME)
• GAP 6: OPERATIONAL IMPACT OF RUSSIAN IO ON WESTERN SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE (CRITICAL - HYPER-ACCELERATED & REINFORCED): The effectiveness of Russian IO in diverting Western attention and potentially impacting aid decisions is a critical unknown, especially with rising oil prices, Iranian accusations of US coordination, and now the explicit linkage of US/Mossad actions to Ukraine via fabricated third-party endorsements, combined with calls for Russian mobilization and rhetoric of "regime destruction." The impact of Chinese humanitarian aid on overall international perception also needs to be monitored. The impact of Flydubai flight cancellations from Russia to Dubai on general Russian sentiment also needs to be monitored. The impact of Russian mockery of Iraq's UNSC complaint on international law needs to be assessed.
  • CR: Conduct continuous OSINT monitoring of Western media narratives, social media trends, and parliamentary/congressional discussions to assess the influence of the Middle East crisis and Russian disinformation on public and political support for Ukraine. Analyze the impact of rising oil prices and the proposed EU oil price cap on Western political will and Russian revenue. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
• GAP 7: POTENTIAL FOR RUSSIAN MASS MOBILIZATION AND STRATEGIC BOMBER DEPLOYMENT (CRITICAL NEW GAP): The public call for mass mobilization by Alaudinov, while amplified, needs to be assessed for its probability of official implementation, potential timelines, and the readiness of the Russian military infrastructure to absorb and train such large numbers. The satirical tone of some Russian channels regarding mobilization ("mobilize Adam Kadyrov") also needs to be understood. The reported increase in Tu-95MS/Tu-160 strategic bombers (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS - previous report) needs independent verification of numbers and armament, and assessment of their deployment locations and intent.
  • CR: Intensify SIGINT and HUMINT on Russian military and political discussions regarding mobilization. Monitor social media for public sentiment and recruitment activity. Assess the capacity of Russian training centers and equipment stockpiles. For strategic bombers, increase IMINT/SIGINT on Russian airfields to confirm aircraft numbers, movements, and loadouts. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 8: CHINESE ENGAGEMENT IN UKRAINE: While a positive development, the extent and nature of China's involvement in providing aid to Ukraine require further monitoring.
  • CR: Investigate "Afore" company profile, its products, ownership, links to the Chinese government, and any other international transactions. Track the delivery and deployment of these specific items in Zaporizhzhia and assess their impact on local resilience. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• GAP 9: RUSSIAN IMPROVISED EXPLOSIVE DEVICE CAPABILITIES: The video showing Russian soldiers dismantling mines for explosives (Зона СВО - previous report) raises questions about the scale of this activity and its impact on Russian capabilities for unconventional warfare, as well as implications for official supply lines.
  • CR: Intensify HUMINT and TECHINT to assess the prevalence of improvised explosive device production by Russian forces, the types of munitions produced, and its impact on their tactical effectiveness and overall logistics. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• GAP 10: ACTUAL IMPACT OF UKRAINIAN STRIKE ON RESONIT FACTORY: A comprehensive BDA on the "Resonit" electronics factory is needed to quantify the strategic impact on Russian military-industrial capabilities.
  • CR: Prioritize overhead imagery and SIGINT/HUMINT to assess the full extent of damage, operational disruption, and long-term consequences of the strike. (PRIORITY: HIGH).

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

• Intelligence & Special Operations (ISR, HUMINT, OSINT critical):

  1. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION & AGGRESSIVE COUNTERING OF MIDDLE EAST DISINFORMATION AND FALSE FLAGS, ESPECIALLY THOSE JUSTIFYING "REGIME DESTRUCTION." All-source intelligence must rapidly verify all claims and counter-claims regarding the Israel-Iran conflict, particularly Russian narratives aiming to implicate US leadership, exaggerate the crisis/casualties, and especially those explicitly justifying "regime destruction" as a legitimate outcome. Leverage IAEA statements for nuclear sites. Specifically identify and highlight Russian narratives that explicitly link Mossad operations to Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian territory as false flag justifications, using the specific manipulated videos (including the new "ground-to-ground missile attack from secret base" video) as evidence of Russian fabrication. Crucially, immediately identify, analyze, and expose fabricated third-party endorsements (e.g., the "Donald Trump" social media post and new attributed statements on US support/knowledge of Israeli strikes) as a new, dangerous form of Russian disinformation aimed at destabilizing the information environment and diverting attention. Ensure Ukrainian channels are not inadvertently amplifying these. Forcefully debunk the "Taurus disguised as Ukrainian" narrative and "European VPK milks Ukraine" claims. Provide verified intelligence to strategic decision-makers and IO elements for immediate, public, and aggressive counter-messaging. Publicly condemn and expose the use of provocative, anti-Semitic imagery by Russian-amplified sources (e.g., Alex Parker Returns) as a vile attempt to sow division and hatred, clearly linking it to Russian hybrid warfare tactics. (Supports CR 1, 4, 6)
  2. CRITICAL PRIORITY: INTENSIFY ISR ON SUMY (Yablonovka/Yunakovka/Tyotkino), NOVOPAVILIVKA DIRECTION (Komar/Koptevo/beyond, Velyka Novosilka/H-15), GULIAIPOLE DIRECTION (Malinivka), BASOVKA/KONSTANTINOVKA, AND CHERNIHIV (Kuty Vtorye). While the Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough was denied, persistent Russian IO around it indicates continued interest. Divert all significant ISR assets (IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT) to these areas. Prioritize identifying Russian force composition, logistics build-up, and intent (fixing operations vs. major offensive), and verify any deployment of Ukrainian reserves. Assess the ground truth against aspirational Russian maps, particularly the Velyka Novosilka map. Leverage intelligence from captured soldiers on morale and plans (e.g., Razmyslov Evgeniy Vadimovich). (Supports CR 2)
  3. CRITICAL PRIORITY: ASSESS GEOMAGNETIC STORM IMPACT. Immediately assess potential effects of the geomagnetic storm on friendly and enemy navigation, communication, and AD systems. Implement mitigation measures for friendly forces and exploit potential enemy vulnerabilities. (Supports CR 3)
  4. CRITICAL PRIORITY: ASSESS KATRAN USV & LASER ANTI-UAV THREAT. Immediately task TECHINT and SIGINT to fully analyze the "Katran" USV schematics, confirm operational capabilities, and assess potential deployment timelines and areas of operation (Black Sea, coastal). Similarly, assess the readiness and effectiveness of reported laser anti-UAV systems, building on visual confirmation. Develop countermeasures accordingly. (Supports CR 5)
  5. CRITICAL PRIORITY: ASSESS RUSSIAN MOBILIZATION PROBABILITY AND STRATEGIC BOMBER DEPLOYMENT. Intensify intelligence collection on Russian military and political intentions regarding mass mobilization. Assess the feasibility of Apti Alaudinov's public call and the broader sentiment within Russian channels. For strategic bombers, increase IMINT/SIGINT on Russian airfields to confirm aircraft numbers, movements, and loadouts. (Supports CR 7)
  6. CONTINUOUS COUNTER-SABOTAGE INTELLIGENCE. Reinforce intelligence efforts to identify and disrupt Russian-directed railway sabotage networks, particularly in light of increased hybrid threat, and monitor for any new false flag justifications. Specifically, actively debunk FSB claims of detained civilian "Ukrainian "operatives" planning sabotage, highlighting them as Russian propaganda. (Supports CR 9)
  7. MONITOR CHINESE ENGAGEMENT. Monitor the "Afore" company and broader Chinese humanitarian/technical aid to Ukraine for any strategic implications or dual-use technologies. (Supports CR 8).
  8. CONDUCT BDA ON RESONIT FACTORY. Prioritize overhead imagery and SIGINT/HUMINT to assess the full extent of damage, operational disruption, and long-term consequences of the strike on the "Resonit" electronics factory. (Supports CR 10).

• Air Defense & Force Protection:

  1. MAINTAIN HIGHEST AIR DEFENSE READINESS ACROSS ALL OBLASTS, ESPECIALLY KHARKIV, DONETSK, DNIPROPETROVSK, CHERNIHIV, SUMY, ZAPORIZHZHYA, AND KYIV. Anticipate Russia may increase the intensity or breadth of aerial attacks (UAVs and ballistic missiles, KABs/KARs) to capitalize on global distraction, potentially with increased strategic bomber activity. Ensure layered AD coverage for critical infrastructure and population centers. Prioritize resources for ballistic missile interception.
  2. ENHANCE BORDER SECURITY AGAINST DRONES & KABS/KARS. Increase air defense coverage and rapid response capabilities in northern border regions like Chernihiv and Sumy against persistent kamikaze drone and KAB/KAR threats. Leverage modernized AD systems (e.g., Trojka).
  3. PROTECT CIVILIAN LOGISTICS AND HUMANITARIAN AID. Develop and disseminate specific TTPs for protecting civilian vehicles, demining teams, and humanitarian operations from FPV drone attacks, considering Russia's observed targeting of civilian vehicles and the new disinformation narratives. Leverage and widely deploy newly tested UGVs for these tasks.
  4. ADAPT TO GEOMAGNETIC STORM: Implement contingency plans for AD systems, radar, and communications that may be affected by the geomagnetic storm. Emphasize manual backup procedures where automation is degraded.
  5. PREPARE MARITIME DEFENSES AGAINST USVs. Assess potential vulnerabilities to advanced Russian USVs (Katran models) in the Black Sea and coastal areas. Prioritize development or acquisition of counter-USV capabilities, including detection, interception, and electronic warfare, learning from Israeli successes.

• Ground Forces:

  1. MAINTAIN DISCIPLINED DEFENSIVE POSTURE IN DNIPROPETROVSK, SUMY (Yablonovka/Yunakovka/Tyotkino), NOVOPAVILIVKA DIRECTION (Komar/Koptevo, Velyka Novosilka/H-15), GULIAIPOLE DIRECTION (Malinivka), AND BASOVKA/KONSTANTINOVKA. Commanders on these axes must remain prepared for potential increased ground probing or offensive actions, but continue to exercise extreme caution against committing strategic reserves until Russian intent and force composition are definitively confirmed. Avoid being drawn into attritional engagements on axes that are primarily diversionary, unless it is confirmed as a major new offensive requiring immediate strategic response. (Supports CR 2)
  2. CONTINUE ATTRITIONAL DEFENSE ON EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AXES. Maintain robust, attritional defense on the key axes (e.g., Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Lyman direction), exploiting costly Russian assault tactics to degrade their forces, as indicated by AFU General Staff updates and the increase in Russian surrenders.
  3. CONTINUE COUNTER-UAV MEASURES & LOGISTICAL INNOVATION. Reinforce and practice counter-FPV drone and anti-UAV tactics at all echelons, including electronic warfare countermeasures and integrated air defense. Ensure all units are aware of Russian drone tactics against PVDs and vehicles, and the increasing threat to logistics. Continue to develop and implement drone-based logistical solutions and UGV deployments as highlighted by the General Staff and recent Zaporizhzhia efforts.
  4. MAXIMIZE PSYOP OPPORTUNITIES. Leverage successes like the increase in drone-induced surrenders of Russian soldiers (Lyman direction), humane treatment of captured soldiers (e.g., Razmyslov), and their testimony on low morale/friendly fire for further PSYOP campaigns, emphasizing the viability and safety of surrender and the effectiveness of Ukrainian forces. Specifically use testimony from POWs like Razmyslov Evgeniy Vadimovich to undermine Russian recruitment and morale. Acknowledge and honor fallen soldiers through dignified repatriation and memorial efforts, countering Russian mockery.

• Information Operations (IO):

  1. IMMEDIATE & AGGRESSIVE: COUNTER RUSSIAN NARRATIVES ON MIDDLE EAST IMPACT AND RISING OIL PRICES, EXPOSE FALSE FLAGS AND FABRICATED THIRD-PARTY STATEMENTS, AND ESPECIALLY "REGIME DESTRUCTION" RHETORIC. Proactively counter Russian attempts to leverage the Israel-Iran conflict to diminish international support for Ukraine. Emphasize that aggression in one region (Iran) emboldens aggression in others (Ukraine), and that Ukraine's fight for sovereignty remains a cornerstone of global stability. Explicitly highlight that rising oil prices, a direct consequence of Middle East instability, financially benefit Moscow and fund its war against Ukraine, referencing Russian milblogger statements. Publicize the EU's €1 billion aid from Russian assets as a direct counter to this Russian strategy and proof of continued Western support. Crucially, immediately and forcefully debunk Russian attempts to link alleged Mossad covert operations to Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian territory, exposing this as a fabrication and a dangerous false flag justification, using forensic analysis of their manipulated videos (especially the new "ground-to-ground missile attack from secret base" video). Most critically, expose and debunk the fabricated "Donald Trump" social media post and any new attributed Trump statements (especially those on US support/knowledge of Israeli strikes) as a sophisticated Russian disinformation tactic, highlighting the future date and its clear alignment with Russian interests. Prompt Ukrainian channels that amplified this post to remove it and issue corrections. Immediately counter the "Taurus disguised as Ukrainian" narrative and "European VPK milks Ukraine" claims. Re-frame Apti Alaudinov's call for mass mobilization: highlight it as evidence of Russia's manpower crisis and high attrition, rather than a sign of strength, and underscore that Russia's aggression is depleting its own resources and personnel. Leverage captured POW testimony (Razmyslov) to support this. Strongly condemn and expose the new, highly provocative, anti-Semitic imagery amplified by Russian sources as a clear example of Russian hybrid warfare and attempts to sow hatred. This is a critical message for Western audiences. (Supports CR 1, 4, 6, 7)
  2. RAPID DEBUNKING OF MISINFORMATION. Establish a rapid response mechanism to immediately debunk unverified and sensationalized claims propagated by Russian state media and milbloggers regarding the Middle East conflict (e.g., high-value Iranian casualties like the General Staff Chief, specific missile types, false US involvement, fabricated Mossad links, Iranian "destruction" of Natanz unless independently verified, Iranian CGI threat videos, claims of radiation leaks, Iranian cancellation of nuclear talks unless independently verified). Highlight these as deliberate Russian disinformation tactics intended to distract from Ukraine. Expose Russian analysis of hypothetical US operations against Iran as a tool for fear-mongering and the use of simulated maps (like "Z комитет") as part of IO. Actively counter narratives of "Western internal instability" (e.g., Dutch protests) using verifiable facts, and counter anti-NATO narratives. (Supports CR 1, 4, 6)
  3. PROMOTE UKRAINIAN SUCCESSES: Actively publicize successful FPV drone strikes on Russian personnel, capture of POWs, GUR raids, internal security successes (MP treason/tax evasion charges - especially Novinsky's, Buchansky fraud exposure, "Forests of Ukraine" corruption, architect damaging cultural site), the successful return of 11 children from occupied Kherson, and the €1 billion EU aid from Russian assets to demonstrate Ukrainian effectiveness and continued international backing. Highlight the resilience of Ukrainian communications and logistical innovation with drones and UGVs. Promote the new drone manufacturing laws and NATO mission leadership. Publicize Chinese humanitarian aid to Zaporizhzhia as a sign of broad international support. Publicize the successful repatriation of fallen Ukrainian soldiers, countering Russian mockery. Showcase ongoing training and readiness efforts (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦) and AD successes (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС).
  4. MAINTAIN DOMESTIC NARRATIVE FOCUS. Continue to emphasize Ukrainian resilience and successes (e.g., successful UAV interceptions, deep cyberattacks, increase in Russian surrenders, police operations against arms trafficking, SBU action against propagandists, drone development policy, legal actions against propagandists) to maintain public morale amidst external geopolitical turbulence and internal threats. Utilize daily enemy loss reports to demonstrate progress. Reinforce national unity through remembrance events. Address utility outages transparently.

• Diplomatic/Inter-Agency:

  1. IMMEDIATE & PROACTIVE: ENGAGE KEY PARTNERS ON SUSTAINED SUPPORT. Ukrainian diplomatic missions should immediately engage with US, EU, and other key partners to highlight the potential for the Middle East escalation to divert attention or resources, and to advocate for continued, robust military and financial support for Ukraine. Explicitly present the Russian disinformation campaign (including fabricated "Trump" statements and false flag videos, and the public calls for Russian mobilization, and the new "regime destruction" rhetoric) as evidence of Moscow's intent to exploit the crisis, and highlight the financial benefit Russia gains from rising oil prices due to regional instability. Strongly advocate for the swift and expanded leveraging of frozen Russian assets, citing the recent €1 billion success. The new head of Ukraine's NATO mission should immediately prioritize this. (Supports CR 4, 6)
  2. COORDINATE WITH ALLIES ON IO STRATEGY: Seek to coordinate with allied intelligence and information agencies on a unified strategy to counter Russian disinformation regarding the Middle East, especially false flag narratives and manipulated videos/fabricated third-party statements, and the dangerous new "regime destruction" rhetoric, and maintain focus on Ukraine. (Supports CR 1, 4, 6)
  3. INTERNATIONAL CONDEMNATION OF CIVILIAN TARGETING. Work with international partners to secure swift and strong condemnation of Russian attacks against civilian populations and continued KAB/KAR/FPV strikes on civilian infrastructure, emphasizing this as a breach of international law.
  4. Clarify Chinese Aid: Ensure transparent communication with international partners regarding the nature and extent of Chinese humanitarian/civilian aid, differentiating it from military support. (Supports CR 8).
  5. PREPARE FOR UNSC ENGAGEMENT: If the UNSC meets today regarding the Israel-Iran conflict, Ukrainian diplomatic missions should ensure Ukraine's perspective is represented, highlighting the interconnectedness of global security challenges and the need to address Russian aggression simultaneously, and countering Russian mockery of international institutions. (Supports CR 6).
  6. ENGAGE ESTONIA ON MINE CONVENTION: Engage with Estonian counterparts to understand the motivations and implications of their withdrawal from the anti-personnel mine ban convention, and assess its potential impact on regional security and Ukraine's own military posture.