Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME OF REPORT: 12 JUN 25 / 16:20 ZULU REPORTING PERIOD: 12 JUN 25 / 15:50 ZULU - 12 JUN 25 / 16:20 ZULU PREPARED BY: Senior Military Intelligence Analyst, Eastern European Warfare Desk CLASSIFICATION: TOP SECRET / ORCON / NOFORN

---

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Eastern Ukraine (Donetsk Oblast - Chasiv Yar):
  • NEW: Ukrainian forces (Оперативний ЗСУ) release a 13-minute GoPro/POV video from Chasiv Yar, depicting frontline combat. This confirms continued intense fighting in this key sector. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for presence, MEDIUM for specific tactical gains/losses without full video review).
• Eastern Ukraine (Donetsk Oblast - Konstantinovka Direction):
  • NEW: Russian milblogger "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares a military situation map for the Konstantinovka direction, indicating ongoing Russian offensive pressure or planned operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for claim, LOW for independent verification of details).
• Eastern Ukraine (Zaporizhzhia Oblast - Polohy Direction):
  • NEW: Russian "Воин DV" claims 35th Combined Arms Army destroyed 2 Ukrainian UAV control points in the Polohy direction. This, if true, indicates active Russian counter-UAV efforts and continued engagement in Zaporizhzhia. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM for claim, LOW for BDA).
• Northern Ukraine (Kharkiv Oblast - ZOLOCHIV):
  • UPDATED: Rescue efforts are ongoing in ZOLOCHIV (РБК-Україна), confirming at least one woman and an 11-year-old son rescued from rubble. Oleg Synehubov confirms consequences of three KAB strikes on ZOLOCHIV. This reinforces the significant impact of KABs on civilian areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Northern Ukraine (Sumy Oblast):
  • UPDATED: ASTRA reports two women injured in an attack on Sumy Oblast. This confirms continued Russian kinetic activity in the region, consistent with ongoing probes and President Zelenskyy's claims of pushing back. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Black Sea / Maritime Domain:
  • NEW: "Два майора" shares a detailed graphic on Ukrainian "Sea Baby" USV variants, including "kamikaze," ATGM-equipped, "Grad"-equipped, and potentially other armed versions, with a claimed range over 900km. This highlights Ukraine's continued asymmetric naval capabilities development and represents a significant threat to Russian naval assets and coastal infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for graphic, MEDIUM for all claimed capabilities/ranges).
• Russian Deep Rear (Moscow):
  • NEW: TASS video shows a Red Square event with smoke and lights, seemingly a cultural or ceremonial event. WarGonzo features Timur "Baikot" Kurilkin at the Kremlin. This reinforces Russia's narrative of normalcy and internal cohesion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Global Events:
  • UPDATED: TASS confirms the total fatalities in the India air crash have risen to over 310. No direct military relevance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • NEW: Rybar posts a graphic on an upcoming military exercise (likely "Brotherhood" or similar) with map and planning meeting imagery. This indicates continued Russian/allied military training. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations:

• No new specific weather or environmental updates directly affecting operational zones.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces:
  • Sumy Counter-Offensive: President Zelenskyy's statement of "gradually pushing out the occupier" in Sumy is reiterated by Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS. This remains a key indicator of Ukrainian active defense and potential limited counter-offensives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for claim, MEDIUM for independent verification).
  • Deep Strike Capabilities: Continued intelligence of successful deep strikes on Russian military-industrial targets (Resonit, Tambov) and cyberattacks (Orion Telecom) from previous reports, despite no new BDA in this period, indicates sustained capabilities.
  • Civilian Administration Resilience: Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Governor Vilkul holds a briefing, and Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration reports on civilian casualties, demonstrating continued governmental function in active war zones. Oleg Synehubov (Kharkiv Oblast Governor) participates in a "Strasbourg format" meeting, showing continued diplomatic engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Information Operations (IO) / Domestic Communications: SBU releases exclusive video of the POW exchange, a powerful morale and humanitarian message. STERNENKO seeks subscriptions, indicating continued open-source support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Forces:
  • Increased Border Activity: Claims of destroying UAV control points in Polohy and map for Konstantinovka indicate continued military presence and kinetic activity in these regions. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
  • Internal Control & Propaganda: MoD Russia shows Putin meeting with "Time of Heroes" participants and a "Hooray!" cheer, aiming to boost morale and project strong leadership. TASS warns of "fraudulent attacks on children" during holidays, a non-military, but potentially IO-related message (creating fear/disinformation). Alex Parker Returns claims "everything is very good" in Titkino after "normal reserves" arrived, pushing a narrative of Russian success and effective reinforcement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Military-Industrial Complex: Basurin (DPR milblogger) posts a video of Putin awarding a "Hero of Labor" title to a chief doctor in Gorlovka. This reinforces the narrative of rebuilding and recognizing those in occupied territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Precision Strike Capabilities: Colonelcassad posts a video of a laser-guided aerial strike from an Orlan-30 UAV on a "bulk crossing" (likely a temporary bridge) near Kupyansk, demonstrating Russian precision strike capabilities against infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (COA):

• Capabilities:
  • Sustained Ground Pressure & Aerial Bombardment: Confirmed KAB strikes on ZOLOCHIV, active fighting in Chasiv Yar, and claims of destroyed UAV control points in Polohy show continued kinetic capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Precision Strike Capabilities: Demonstrated by the laser-guided strike on a temporary bridge near Kupyansk. This indicates Russian ability to target critical infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Robust Information Warfare & Hybrid Operations: Continued exploitation of national holidays, internal unity messaging, and attempts to create narratives of success ("Titkino"). The warning about "fraudulent attacks on children" during holidays suggests a proactive, if unusual, IO theme. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Counter-UAV Effectiveness: Russian claims of destroying UAV control points (Polohy) indicate an ongoing effort to counter Ukrainian drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
• Intentions:
  • Maintain Offensive Momentum: Continue ground and aerial attacks in key sectors (Donetsk, Kharkiv) and sustain pressure on new axes (Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk) to attrite Ukrainian forces and secure incremental gains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Degrade Ukrainian Logistics/C2: Target Ukrainian infrastructure (bridges, UAV control points) to disrupt supply lines and operational coordination. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Control Information Space: Shape domestic and international narratives to legitimize the war, boost internal morale, and project an image of strength and effectiveness. Exploit any perceived international recognition or internal "successes." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Subdue Internal Dissent/Project Stability: Use events like Putin's meetings and awards to project a sense of stability and reward loyalty. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Courses of Action (COA):
  • COA 1 (Sustained Combined Arms Pressure on Current Fronts): Russia will maintain high-intensity ground assaults in Donetsk (Chasiv Yar, Konstantinovka) and likely continue KAB strikes on Kharkiv. They will continue to probe and engage forces along the Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk borders, possibly with renewed ground assaults if Ukrainian resistance falters. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • COA 2 (Targeted Infrastructure Strikes & Counter-UAV Operations): Russia will continue to employ precision strikes (e.g., laser-guided bombs, guided missiles) against Ukrainian logistics nodes, temporary crossings, and C2 infrastructure. Simultaneously, they will prioritize counter-UAV operations against Ukrainian drone assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • COA 3 (Intensified Multi-Domain IO Campaign with Focus on Internal Cohesion and External Normalization): Russia will leverage national events (Red Square, awards ceremonies) to showcase internal strength and leadership. They will continue to push narratives of Ukrainian setbacks and Russian advances, aiming to sow doubt among Ukraine's allies and further normalize the conflict internally. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• Confirmed Precision Strike: The video of the Orlan-30 guided strike on the Kupyansk bridge indicates a continued or refined ability to conduct precision strikes against specific infrastructure targets, potentially using more advanced guidance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Increased Focus on Counter-UAV: Claims of destroying UAV control points highlight a specific tactical adaptation to counter Ukrainian drone dominance. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
• Adaptive Propaganda: The TASS warning about "fraudulent attacks on children" during holidays could be a novel form of non-military IO, either to genuinely warn or to create an atmosphere of general insecurity and distrust. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• Continued Reliance on Volunteer Aid: The "Sea Baby" graphic released by a Russian milblogger, while detailing Ukrainian capabilities, indirectly highlights the Russian military's own continued reliance on volunteer networks for equipment, even for basic items (as per previous reports). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Munitions Availability: Continued KAB strikes and precision-guided munitions usage indicate sustained production or acquisition of these assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Medical/Welfare Issues: The video of a mobilized soldier's family alleging neglect (from previous reports) and the award to a Gorlovka chief doctor (new) highlight ongoing issues and attempts to manage the narrative around military welfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• Russian C2: Demonstrates continued strategic synchronization in propaganda and internal messaging (Putin's public appearances, awards, "Russia Day" narratives). Operational C2 is maintaining pressure on multiple axes, as evidenced by continued kinetic activity in Chasiv Yar, Polohy, Konstantinovka, Sumy, and Kharkiv. The precision strike on the Kupyansk bridge implies effective tactical C2 for targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian C2: Shows robust and transparent C2, immediately publicizing POW returns (SBU video), high-level diplomatic meetings, and President Zelenskyy's statements on current operations (Sumy). Continued combat in Chasiv Yar with GoPro footage implies sustained local C2 effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• High Morale & Resilience: The SBU video of the POW exchange vividly demonstrates the significant morale boost for both service members and the general population. The determination shown in the Chasiv Yar combat footage also indicates high frontline morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Active Defense & Limited Counter-Offensive: President Zelenskyy's repeated claim of "pushing out the occupier" in Sumy indicates an active defensive posture and potential for limited counter-offensives against new incursions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Asymmetric Capabilities: The detailed Russian graphic on "Sea Baby" USVs highlights Ukraine's effective development and deployment of advanced asymmetric capabilities that pose a significant threat to Russian naval assets and coastal infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Civilian-Military Coordination: The public statements from Oblast Governors (Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia) on KAB impacts and civilian casualties underscore the critical coordination between military and civilian authorities in response to attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes:
  • Significant POW Returns: Confirmed continuation of POW exchanges with an exclusive SBU video showcasing the emotional reunions, a major humanitarian and morale success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • SUMY COUNTER-ACTION: President Zelenskyy's repeated claim of "pushing out the occupier" in Sumy, if independently verified, would be a tactical success in defending against new incursions. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
  • Continued Asymmetric Threat: The "Sea Baby" graphic confirms Ukraine's advanced and diversified USV capabilities, allowing for deep strikes into the Black Sea and potential shore bombardment, maintaining a significant asymmetric threat to the Russian Black Sea Fleet. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Frontline Resilience: Continued combat and video from Chasiv Yar indicate resilience and effective defense in a highly contested sector. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Setbacks:
  • Continued KAB Strikes & Civilian Casualties: Confirmed KAB attacks on ZOLOCHIV, Kharkiv Oblast, resulting in rescues from rubble and injuries, represent a persistent threat and tactical setback for civilian infrastructure and lives. The report of two women injured in Sumy also highlights this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Taurus Missile Issue: The confirmed decision not to supply Taurus missiles (from previous reports) remains a critical constraint on deep strike capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Russian Counter-UAV Claims: Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian UAV control points in Polohy, if true, represent a setback for Ukrainian reconnaissance and strike capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Air Defense for KABs: Continued KAB strikes highlight the immediate and ongoing need for more effective and widespread air defense against guided bombs, particularly for population centers near the front.
• Long-Range Precision Munitions: The confirmed Taurus rejection means alternative long-range strike capabilities are a critical requirement for degrading Russian military-industrial capacity and command centers.
• Counter-Incursion/Border Defense: Resources (personnel, equipment, fortifications) are continuously required to maintain readiness and push back Russian probes on new axes (Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy).
• Naval Assets for Counter-USV: While Ukrainian USVs are effective, Russian naval assets will require enhanced countermeasures against the diversified "Sea Baby" threats, which will drain Russian resources.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian Narratives:
  • Normalization & Internal Cohesion: TASS Red Square event and WarGonzo's "Baikot" at the Kremlin, along with Putin's meetings, aim to project normalcy, unity, and strong leadership, particularly around "Russia Day."
  • Battlefield Success: Alex Parker Returns claims "everything is very good" in Titkino due to "normal reserves" are direct propaganda aimed at boosting morale and demonstrating effective reinforcement. "Воин DV" claims of destroying UAV control points serve the same purpose.
  • Legitimization of Occupation: Basurin's video of Putin awarding a "Hero of Labor" in Gorlovka attempts to normalize Russian control over occupied territories and present a benevolent image.
  • Global Instability/Diversion: Rybar's military exercise graphic serves to project military readiness and might, relevant to broader geopolitical tensions.
  • Fear/Distrust (Unconventional): TASS warning about "fraudulent attacks on children" during holidays is a strange but notable piece of non-military IO, possibly aimed at fostering general public anxiety or caution.
• Ukrainian Counter-Narratives:
  • Humanitarian Triumph & Resilience: SBU's exclusive video of the POW exchange is a powerful counter-narrative, emphasizing the value of human life and Ukraine's commitment to its people, directly contrasting with Russian disregard for casualties.
  • Tactical Effectiveness: Release of Chasiv Yar combat footage demonstrates Ukrainian resilience and active engagement on the front. Publicizing the rescue efforts in ZOLOCHIV highlights the civilian impact of Russian strikes.
  • Active Defense & Counter-Offensive: President Zelenskyy's repeated statements on "pushing out the occupier" in Sumy aim to reassure the population and demonstrate control over new axes.
  • Transparency & Accountability: Oblast Governors' immediate reporting on KAB impacts and casualties underscores transparency, contrasting with Russian opacity.
  • Asymmetric Advantage: The Russian graphic of "Sea Baby" USVs, while a Russian source, inadvertently amplifies Ukraine's innovative and effective asymmetric naval capabilities.
• Dempster-Shafer Beliefs:
  • The model's belief in "Uncertainty" remains high (0.599150), indicating a struggle to definitively classify all incoming data.
  • "Troop Movement: Advance by Ukrainian Armed Forces in Sumy Oblast" (0.224249) is a significant positive belief, aligning with Zelenskyy's claims, but still needs independent verification.
  • The high confidence in "Transportation: Transportation Accident in India" (0.055753) and "Humanitarian Crisis: Natural Disaster in India" (0.003475) highlights the model's accuracy on non-military, external events.
  • CRITICAL SHORTCOMING: The extremely low belief in "Military Action: Airstrike by Russia on Civilian Targets in Kharkiv region" (0.000000) is a major failure, given the confirmed KAB strikes on ZOLOCHIV (Kharkiv Oblast) resulting in rescues and injuries. This suggests the model's classification of direct military actions on civilian targets, particularly KABs, remains underdeveloped or incorrectly weighted, making it unreliable for accurately reflecting immediate ground truth regarding aerial attacks.
  • The model has a low belief in "Information Warfare: Propaganda Effort by Ukrainian forces" (0.000004), which is concerning given Ukraine's strong and active IO efforts (e.g., SBU POW video, Zelenskyy's statements). This suggests a bias or lack of recognition of "friendly" IO.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian Morale: Strongly boosted by the visual confirmation of POW returns and the continued high-level engagement of President Zelenskyy. Resilience is also high due to demonstrable successes in defending against incursions (Sumy) and asymmetric capabilities (Sea Baby). However, the ongoing KAB strikes on civilian areas (ZOLOCHIV, Sumy) will continue to test public morale and require robust support from local authorities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Morale: Actively cultivated by narratives of military success ("Titkino"), strong leadership (Putin's appearances), and national pride ("Russia Day"). However, underlying issues of casualty management and reliance on volunteer aid (from previous reports) indicate potential strains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Germany Aid Package: The commitment to a three-year supply of Iris-T air defense systems remains a strategic positive for Ukraine's long-term air defense capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Taurus Missile Decision: The confirmed decision not to supply Taurus missiles continues to be a critical strategic gap for Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• G7 Summit Disagreements: Bloomberg's report (via Операция Z) of no final G7 declaration due to disagreements, including on Ukraine, suggests potential friction among allies, which Russia will exploit. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Sustained Attritional Ground Operations with Continued KAB Barrages (Next 24-72 hours): Russia will maintain high-intensity ground assaults in Donetsk (Chasiv Yar, Konstantinovka) and continuous KAB strikes on Kharkiv Oblast (ZOLOCHIV) and Sumy Oblast. They will continue to probe and engage forces along the Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy borders. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Targeted Strikes on Logistics and Command Nodes (Next 24-48 hours): Russia will continue to employ precision-guided munitions (e.g., laser-guided bombs from Orlan-30s, potentially other PGMs) against Ukrainian temporary crossings, logistical chokepoints, and UAV control infrastructure, particularly in frontline and rear areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Intensified Multi-Faceted Information Operations (Ongoing): Russia will continue to amplify narratives of Russian battlefield successes, internal unity, and strong leadership, particularly utilizing "Russia Day" and other national events. Concurrently, they will maintain psychological operations (e.g., warnings about children) and disinformation campaigns to undermine Ukrainian morale and sow division among allies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Coordinated Breakthrough on New Axis (Sumy/Dnipropetrovsk) with Massed Air/Drone Support (Next 48-96 hours): Russia launches a larger, more sustained ground offensive on either the Sumy or Dnipropetrovsk axis, aiming for a significant breakthrough. This would be synchronized with a massed multi-domain strike (missiles, Shaheds, potentially new drone variants like "Geran-3") against Ukrainian strategic reserves, logistics hubs, or critical air defense systems to prevent effective reinforcement. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM-HIGH)
• Escalated Hybrid Warfare in Deep Rear Areas (Next 72-120 hours): Russia escalates covert sabotage efforts (FSB-directed) in Ukrainian deep rear areas, potentially targeting critical infrastructure (e.g., energy, transport hubs) or high-profile civilian targets, possibly with more sophisticated explosives or methods, synchronized with widespread cyberattacks to disrupt emergency responses and create panic. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 1-3 hours):
  • CRITICAL: Continue real-time monitoring of all active fronts, especially Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk, for any significant shifts in Russian ground force movements or increased kinetic activity. Decision Point: Activate pre-positioned reserves if new breakthroughs or escalations are confirmed on these new axes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • IO/STRATCOM: Immediately amplify the SBU POW exchange video and consolidate messaging around the success and humanitarian aspect of the returns. Counter Russian narratives of success in Sumy/Titkino with Zelenskyy's claims of pushing them back. Decision Point: Release coordinated press statements and social media campaigns focusing on resilience and effective defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Short Term (Next 6-12 hours):
  • FORCE PROTECTION/AD: Review and implement enhanced force protection measures against KABs in Kharkiv Oblast (ZOLOCHIV) and Sumy, prioritizing mobile air defense and early warning for civilian areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • MARITIME DEFENSE: Disseminate intelligence on the "Sea Baby" USV variants to all naval assets and coastal defense units. Initiate review of current countermeasures for USVs with new capabilities (ATGMs, MRLs). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • INTELLIGENCE: Task ISR to independently verify Russian claims of destroying UAV control points in Polohy and BDA on the Kupyansk bridge strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Mid Term (Next 24-72 hours):
  • AD PLANNING: Continue planning for the integration of the 3-year Iris-T supply into the national AD network. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT: Initiate urgent discussions with international partners on alternative long-range precision strike capabilities, given the confirmed Taurus rejection. Highlight the continued KAB threat against civilian infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • COUNTER-HYBRID: Intensify counter-intelligence efforts against Russian recruitment networks for sabotage in rear areas, particularly those targeting youth and civilian infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

---

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

• Intelligence & Special Operations (ISR & HUMINT critical):

  1. CRITICAL PRIORITY: Immediately intensify ISR on the Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk axes. Validate President Zelenskyy's claims of pushing back Russian forces in Sumy. Determine precise Russian force disposition, intent, and the scale of any ground advances. Focus on identifying potential staging areas, logistics build-ups, and force generation in these new directions. (Collection Requirement: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
  2. IMMEDIATE PRIORITY: Conduct rapid, comprehensive BDA on the Kupyansk bridge strike (Colonelcassad video). Determine the type of munition and the extent of damage to assess Russian precision strike capabilities and inform future infrastructure protection. (Collection Requirement: IMINT, OSINT, TECHINT).
  3. TECHINT: Prioritize the technical analysis of recovered Russian UAVs and electronic warfare systems. Exploit any insights into their counter-UAV tactics and communications, particularly in light of claims of destroyed Ukrainian UAV control points. (Collection Requirement: TECHINT, Unit Reporting).
  4. MARITIME INTELLIGENCE: Validate and expand intelligence on the claimed "Sea Baby" USV variants. Specifically, assess the feasibility and threat posed by ATGM-equipped and "Grad"-equipped variants. Develop specific collection requirements for detecting, tracking, and engaging these new threats. (Collection Requirement: IMINT, SIGINT, TECHINT).
  5. HUMINT: Continue comprehensive debriefings of returning POWs. Focus on gathering intelligence on Russian personnel morale, logistical issues, and specific details of captivity conditions to inform international legal actions and counter-propaganda. (Collection Requirement: HUMINT).
  6. CYBER INTELLIGENCE: Maintain heightened vigilance for potential large-scale cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure, especially financial and C2 networks, which may accompany a new kinetic offensive or attempt to exploit any internal unrest. Monitor for new forms of Russian hybrid warfare and IO campaigns, including the "fraudulent attacks on children" theme.

• Air Defense & Force Protection:

  1. AD ASSET ALLOCATION: Immediately re-evaluate and, if necessary, redeploy mobile short-range air defense and counter-UAV systems to protect civilian populations and critical infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast (ZOLOCHIV) and Sumy Oblast, given continued KAB and ground attacks resulting in casualties.
  2. MARITIME FORCE PROTECTION: Develop and disseminate enhanced counter-USV TTPs for all naval and coastal defense units. Prioritize training for engaging multi-variant USVs, including kinetic (small arms fire, automatic cannons, anti-ship missiles) and non-kinetic (EW, cyber) means. Improve detection capabilities for low-profile, high-speed surface craft.
  3. INFRASTRUCTURE PROTECTION: Accelerate the construction and hardening of protective infrastructure, particularly for educational and critical civilian facilities in Kharkiv, Sumy, and other high-threat areas subjected to KAB strikes. Reinforce bridges and temporary crossings against precision strikes.

• Ground Forces:

  1. CONTINUED ATTRITION: Maintain robust defensive operations in Donetsk (Chasiv Yar, Konstantinovka), maximizing Russian casualties and attriting their forces through effective use of indirect fire, anti-tank systems, and small-unit tactics. Continue aggressive drone operations against Russian personnel and light vehicles.
  2. BORDER SECURITY: Maintain high alert and active patrolling along the Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy borders. Rapidly respond to any cross-border incursions and continue to push back Russian forces as claimed by President Zelenskyy. Prioritize engineer and anti-drone capabilities in these sectors.
  3. CIVILIAN PROTECTION: Emphasize adherence to the Laws of Armed Conflict (LOAC) and implement measures to protect civilian populations and infrastructure from both KAB strikes and FPV drone attacks.
  4. MORALE & WELFARE: Ensure immediate and comprehensive psychological and medical support for all returning POWs. Promote the stories of their return to further boost national morale and resilience.

• Information Operations (IO):

  1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Leverage the SBU's exclusive video of POW returns to demonstrate Ukrainian strength, resilience, and unwavering international support for its defenders. Frame the POW returns as a humanitarian triumph and a testament to Ukraine's values, directly contrasting with Russian actions.
  2. CRITICAL: IMMEDIATELY and AGGRESSIVELY publicize the ongoing civilian casualties and destruction from KAB strikes in ZOLOCHIV (Kharkiv Oblast) and Sumy Oblast. Use this to highlight Russian war crimes and to galvanize international support for air defense.
  3. CRITICAL: PROACTIVELY counter Russian narratives of success in Sumy/Titkino with President Zelenskyy's claims of pushing them back. Provide timely, factual updates to maintain public trust and prevent panic.
  4. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATION: Amplify Ukraine's advanced asymmetric capabilities, as inadvertently highlighted by Russian sources (e.g., "Sea Baby" USV graphic). Showcase Ukrainian ingenuity and deterrence.
  5. COUNTER-HYBRID: Continue public warnings about Russian recruitment networks for sabotage in rear areas, particularly targeting youth. Highlight the FSB's involvement and the dangers.

• Diplomatic/Inter-Agency:

  1. BILATERAL ENGAGEMENT: Engage with German counterparts to express gratitude for the Iris-T commitment and to continue dialogue on long-range precision strike capabilities, exploring alternative solutions or future prospects for Taurus, emphasizing the urgent need.
  2. INTERNATIONAL ADVOCACY: Highlight the continued use of KABs against civilian areas (ZOLOCHIV, Sumy) to international partners, pushing for stronger air defense aid and increased pressure on Russia.
  3. POW EXCHANGE DIPLOMACY: Intensify diplomatic efforts through all available channels to pressure Russia to expedite and fully adhere to agreed prisoner exchanges.
  4. INTER-AGENCY COORDINATION: Enhance coordination between military intelligence, SBU, Ministry of Interior, and civilian administrations to counter potential sabotage efforts in rear areas and protect civilian populations from ongoing attacks, particularly in frontline and border regions.