Situation Report

OPSEC CLASSIFICATION: NATO SECRET // RELEASABLE TO UKR FORCES

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) TIME OF REPORT: 09 JUN 25 / 09:19 ZULU REPORTING PERIOD: 09 JUN 25 / 08:49 ZULU - 09 JUN 25 / 09:19 ZULU PREPARED BY: Senior Military Intelligence Analyst, Eastern European Warfare Desk

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• AOR Update: Kyiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Black Sea, Azov Sea, Sumy Oblast, Russian Federation border regions (Kursk, Bryansk, Belgorod, Tambov, Voronezh, Chuvashia, Nizhny Novgorod, Cheboksary, Moscow Oblast, Okinawa - US Kadena Airbase), and the Donetsk axis remain active. Chernihiv Oblast, Rivne Oblast, Zhytomyr Oblast, and Volyn Oblast are under direct aerial attack. Odesa Oblast and Black Sea region under active missile threat. Continued emphasis on Kremenchuk/Svetlovodsk axis. Kryvyi Rih reports situation controlled. Kharkiv Oblast has sustained strikes on 9 settlements. Zaporizhzhia suburbs are under active reconnaissance drone threat. Kursk Oblast (Khalino Airfield) shows new defensive infrastructure. Kazan, Russia, is experiencing a major industrial fire. Rylsk, Kursk Oblast, under renewed RSZO attack.
• New Developments (UKR):
  • Air Defense Performance (Confirmed): Ukrainian Air Force, Operatyvnyi ZSU, Tsaplienko, and General Staff ZSU confirm 479 out of 499 aerial targets neutralized overnight. This includes targets impacted by fire assets (292) and those locally lost/suppressed by EW (187). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Multiple corroborating UKR official sources). This is a critical indicator of both high volume of incoming threats and continued AD effectiveness.
  • Zaporizhzhia Sustains Damage & Casualties: Zaporizhzhia OVA reports 7 houses sustained significant damage from an enemy attack. Air raid alarm in Zaporizhzhia has been lifted. One more female civilian in serious condition in Zaporizhzhia due to enemy attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR official source). Video and photos confirm widespread damage to private sector. Further visual evidence from RBK-Ukraine, ASTRA, and Tsaplienko confirms severe damage to residential structures and a kitchen in Zaporizhzhia, consistent with high-explosive aerial munition (likely KAB per Tsaplienko) impact, confirming at least two injured civilians. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Mykolaiv Collaborator Sentenced: Office of the Prosecutor General reports a Mykolaiv resident sentenced to 9 years for transmitting data on Defense Forces and critical infrastructure to Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR official source).
  • Zaporizhzhia Police Battalion Anniversary: Zaporizhzhia OVA posts photos celebrating the anniversary of a special purpose police rifle battalion, indicating continued force generation and morale activities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Main Strike Target: Operational Airfield: Colonel Yurii Ihnat, Head of Communications of the Air Force Command, stated that Russia's main overnight strike target was one of Ukraine's operational airfields. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR official source).
  • DeepState Map Update: DeepState indicates map updated, implying active changes on the ground. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • New UKR FPV Strike in Belgorod: OTU "Kharkiv" releases video of an FPV drone strike on a military-style truck "deep in the rear of BNR" (Belgorod People's Republic), confirming continued Ukrainian deep strikes against Russian logistics/assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• New Developments (RU):
  • Los Angeles Riots Amplification (Continued & Expanded): TASS, Janus Putkonen, and Mash na Donbasse continue to amplify videos of Los Angeles riots, some showing burning vehicles and police confrontations. TASS specifically highlights an "Australian 9News reporter shot with a rubber bullet" during protests in LA, and now reports 56 arrests in Los Angeles over the weekend. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian state media and milbloggers, LOW confidence in veracity, HIGH confidence in propaganda effort).
  • Kazan Industrial Fire (Confirmed by RU and UKR sources): RBK-Ukraine, Chef Hayabusa, and BUTUSOV PLUS (with video) confirm a large fire at an industrial facility in Kazan, with "explosions heard." One video specifically links it to the "Kazan Powder Plant." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Multiple corroborating sources).
  • Russian Internal Issues (Diseases, Propaganda): Novosti Moskvy reports on increased measles, pertussis, and rubella outbreaks in Russia due to vaccine refusal. They also post a photo of a T-shirt with "Fasten your seatbelts. We're flying to the loony bin" as satire, reflecting internal social commentary. Mobilizatsiya News reports a soldier went AWOL and shot two people due to jealousy, implying internal military discipline issues. ASTRA reports arrest in Stavropol for murder of Zaur Gurtsiev (commander of Mariupol air assault). TASS reports FSB prevented sabotage at an OPH enterprise in Moscow, detaining two Russians with IEDs. Kotsnews also reports FSB prevention of sabotage on an OPH enterprise and "military product contraband" from Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian media, LOW confidence in veracity, HIGH confidence in propaganda effort). TASS further details the FSB claims, stating one saboteur worked at a Moscow region defense plant and admitted to preparing two "power bank" bombs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Russian Claims of Successful Counter-Drone Operations (5th CAA): Voin DV claims the 5th Combined Arms Army used artillery, AD, and FPV-drones to destroy an electro-generator, 9 "Baba-Yaga" drones, and 31 quadcopter-type UAVs at night, also destroying an enemy pickup and disrupting two ammunition resupply attempts in Voskresenka area. TASS reports Investigative Committee opened criminal case on "terrorist attack" after Ukrainian UAV attack in Kekino, Kursk Oblast, injuring a civilian (May 19th incident). Voin DV video shows drone-guided artillery strikes on what appears to be Ukrainian dugouts/trenches, confirming Russian BDA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger/state media, LOW confidence in veracity).
  • Russian Narrative of Sumy Troop Transfer: Operatsiya Z amplifies "Voenkor Russkoy Vesny" claims of mass Russian troop transfers to Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger, LOW confidence in veracity).
  • DPR Milblogger Claims of AFU Equipment Destruction: Narodnaya Militsiya DNR posts a video claiming destruction of AFU armored vehicles. TASS/MoD Russia release videos claiming destruction of a BMP-2 by "Zapad" group recon, disrupting rotation/ammo supply, and "Yug" group artillery destroying mortar position/shelter. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger/state media, LOW confidence in veracity).
  • Russian Propaganda - Ukraine is Profiteering: ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZA posts a graphic claiming "War in Ukraine - profit for the West," alleging US SOF and Ukraine cooperation using satellite intelligence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger, LOW confidence in veracity, HIGH confidence in propaganda effort).
  • Russian Volunteer Fundraising: Colonelcassad posts a call for donations for "Summer Campaign 2025." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger, LOW confidence in veracity, HIGH confidence in propaganda effort).
  • Russian Propaganda - Internal Russian Medical Care: Dva Mayora posts an advertisement for a dental clinic, implying high-quality medical care in Russia, likely to counter narratives of poor healthcare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger, LOW confidence in veracity, HIGH confidence in propaganda effort).
  • Russian Propaganda - Bryansk Iskander Strike (Casualty Confirmation): ASTRA provides more detail on the Bryansk Iskander-M strike, reporting "14 servicemen died" based on Ukrainian journalist Andrey Tsaplienko. This is a rare instance of ASTRA (often critical of the regime) corroborating Ukrainian BDA, potentially for internal criticism of Russian command. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Based on Ukrainian claim amplified by ASTRA).
  • Russian Propaganda - Ukrainian "Spy" Interrogation: Mash na Donbasse posts a video claiming to show a Ukrainian "spy" interrogated for collecting information for SBU. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger, LOW confidence in veracity, HIGH confidence in propaganda effort).
  • NATO AD Increase Discussion: TASS reports Mark Rutte insisting on a 400% increase in NATO AD capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian state media, reflecting their concern about NATO AD).
  • Dnipropetrovsk "Breakthrough" Video (Colonelcassad, Kotenok, TASS): Colonelcassad posts video purporting to show Russian forces crossing the border of "DPR and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast," claiming "stormtroopers first knocked out an AFU group from a strongpoint on the border." Kotenok posts the same video with the caption "Moment of transition of advanced units of the Russian Armed Forces across the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast." TASS quotes military expert Andrey Marochko claiming the Dnipropetrovsk offensive will "cut off" AFU groupings on the DPR and Zaporizhzhia borders. Dnevnik Desantnika also posts the "breakthrough" video and explicitly claims "Our troops entered the territory of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, having previously knocked out the enemy from border lines." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger/state media, LOW confidence in veracity, HIGH confidence in propaganda effort).
  • Dnipropetrovsk Aviation Threat (Confirmed by UKR AF): Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of "threat of aviation weapons use" in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykove district). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR official source). This corroborates previous Russian IO activity in the region.
  • Dubno Airfield Strikes: НгП раZVедка claims "several hundred strikes" on the airfield in Dubno. They further claim "up to 5 MiG-29 aircraft destroyed" at Dubno airfield based on "loyal sources in enemy rear." Fighterbomber, however, denies any aircraft losses at VKS airfields from today's UAV attacks. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - НгП раZVедка as claim, LOW for MiG-29 destruction due to Fighterbomber counter-claim).
  • Black Sea Gas Platforms: Dva Mayora posts a message claiming Tu-22M3/Kh-22/32 strikes on Black Sea gas platforms and Snake Island on 09.06.2025 (likely a future prediction, typo, or placeholder date given the context of current reporting). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger, LOW confidence in veracity, MEDIUM confidence in date/event as described). Colonelcassad also posts a video claiming destruction of a Ukrainian USV by "Klin" loitering munition in the Black Sea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Rylsk RSZO Strike: Colonelcassad reports "the enemy again shelled Rylsk with MLRS." ASTRA reports one person killed in a missile strike in Rylsk district, Kursk Oblast, citing local media. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Russian Internal Bribery: TASS reports the mayor of Krasnoyarsk, Vladislav Loginov, has been charged with receiving a bribe of over 180 million rubles. ASTRA reiterates this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Russian Anti-Ukrainian Propaganda: Alex Parker Returns posts an image of a person with "SLAVA ROSSII" (Glory to Russia) scars on their abdomen, alongside a Ukrainian flag bracelet, with the caption "One of the Khokhols in the refrigerator suddenly woke up. A miracle!" This is explicit, dehumanizing, and contradictory propaganda, likely a staged image to mock Ukrainian identity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Propaganda, LOW confidence in veracity). Alex Parker Returns also posts a screenshot of a tweet saying "You no longer want to punish Donbas?" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Propaganda).
  • Russian Training Video: WarGonzo releases a "Special Report" video showcasing "how effective assault troops are trained," focusing on military training and ideological indoctrination. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations:

• Conducive to All Aerial Operations: Clear weather continues to facilitate widespread aerial assaults. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Environmental Hazards: The Kazan fire and Yenisei fuel spill represent localized environmental hazards and resource strain on emergency services in Russia. The Kazan fire is particularly significant as it appears to be at a powder/industrial plant. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts video confirming a vessel sinking in the Yenisei River, leaking up to 30 tons of diesel fuel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The prevention of sabotage at Moscow OPH enterprise highlights ongoing internal security concerns. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The significant fire in Rylsk district, Kursk Oblast, following RSZO attack indicates ongoing cross-border environmental impact and emergency response demands. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces (Air Defense): KCMVA, Operatyvnyi ZSU, Tsaplienko, and General Staff ZSU confirm 479 out of 499 aerial targets neutralized overnight. This is a remarkable success rate against a massive incoming wave, but 20 targets still penetrated. AD remains on highest alert and engaged, successfully neutralizing a large number of incoming aerial targets. Reconnaissance UAVs are active over Zaporizhzhia suburbs and now aviation weapon threat for Synelnykove district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, requiring local AD vigilance. Colonel Ihnat confirms the main target was an operational airfield. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian Forces (Ground): Maintaining defensive postures. The SBU continues effective counter-intelligence operations (spy arrest). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Zaporizhzhia police battalion anniversary highlights continued force generation and readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). DeepState map update indicates ongoing changes to lines of contact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). OTU "Kharkiv" demonstrates continued offensive FPV drone capabilities against Russian rear assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Forces (Air): Confirmed construction of hardened aircraft shelters at Khalino airfield (Kursk) indicates an adaptation to protect high-value assets from Ukrainian deep strikes. Russian MoD showcases T-90M tank operations in Krasny Liman. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Aviation weapon threat to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicates continued air presence. Claims of "several hundred strikes" on Dubno airfield, and unverified claims of Tu-22M3/Kh-22/32 strikes on Black Sea gas platforms/Snake Island indicate continued air asset utilization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - as claims).
• Russian Forces (Ground): Narodnaya Militsiya DNR and Kotsnews videos show effective drone-guided artillery strikes on Ukrainian infantry positions, demonstrating continued combined arms tactics and precision. Colonelcassad's video claims Russian forces crossing into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Kotenok's video re-confirms the Dnipropetrovsk border crossing claim. TASS quotes military expert Marochko stating Dnipropetrovsk offensive allows "cutting off" AFU groupings. TASS/MoD Russia videos claim successful destruction of Ukrainian BMP-2, mortar positions, and shelters by "Zapad" and "Yug" groups. Colonelcassad reports RSZO strike on Rylsk, indicating continued cross-border shelling. Dnevnik Desantnika explicitly confirms Russian ground forces entering Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - as claims). Voin DV video shows drone-guided artillery strikes on Ukrainian positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Forces (Information Operations): Russia continues to intensify distraction tactics (US riots, internal Russian celebrations, Greta Thunberg), maintain demoralization efforts (spy arrests, economic reports, Zemfira tax debt, "Ukrainians turning to drug trafficking"), and amplify triumphalist narratives ("Rubicon" air superiority, claimed battlefield successes). The new claims of preventing Mi-8/Mi-17 parts contraband and declaring a Ukrainian citizen wanted adds to the narrative of thwarting Ukrainian military supply. The "Los Angeles, Moscow trail" from a Ukrainian source suggests Russian IO is successfully influencing Ukrainian public perception. The "when will the refrigerators carry them?" comment is explicit dehumanizing propaganda. The active amplification of Los Angeles riots, with attempts to apply military intelligence analysis to civilian unrest, confirms Russian intent to frame these as strategic vulnerabilities of the West. The new recruitment for FPV-Air Defense underscores the domestic impact of Ukrainian drone strikes. Colonelcassad's map changes highlight continued claims of ground advances. Kotsnews's frustration over factory strikes confirms the impact of Ukrainian deep strikes. Now, new claims of Russian troop transfers to Sumy (Operatsiya Z), Ukrainian "spy" interrogation (Mash na Donbasse), Russian internal disease outbreaks (Novosti Moskvy), and the "war is profit for West" narrative (ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZA) are added. The Kazan fire is presented by some Russian sources as a local incident, but by Ukrainian sources as potential sabotage/deep strike. Kotenok's "Siberian Association" video claiming FPV strikes to "expel the enemy from DPR" reinforces propaganda. TASS reporting 56 arrests in LA protests and Investigative Committee opening criminal case on Ukrainian UAV attack in Kursk continues distraction/victim narrative. Dva Mayora's claim about Black Sea strikes, even with a future date, serves to project power. New: Alex Parker Returns posts dehumanizing propaganda targeting Ukrainians, including a fabricated image of "Slava Rossii" scars on a Ukrainian. WarGonzo posts a video showcasing military training, promoting their effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Forces (Internal Security): TASS report on unauthorized phone numbers for messengers indicates tightening state control over communication. TASS reports State Duma Committee approved criminal liability for "droppers" (money launderers for scammers), indicating focus on financial crime. FSB reports prevented sabotage at Moscow OPH enterprise, detaining two Russians with IEDs. Mobilizatsiya News reports a soldier went AWOL and shot two, and ASTRA reports an arrest for murder of a Mariupol air assault commander, indicating internal crime/discipline issues within Russia/military. Kotsnews also reports FSB prevention of sabotage on an OPH enterprise and "military product contraband" from Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS provides further details on the Moscow OPH sabotage, linking it to a Ukrainian agent who worked at the defense plant. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports the Mayor of Krasnoyarsk is charged with bribery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Capabilities:
  • Sustained Full-Spectrum Strategic Air Strike Capability (Confirmed & Active at Maximum Scale, Expanding Western/Southern Targets, Renewed Kinzhal Threat, Multi-Wave): Russia continues to demonstrate its capability to conduct a sustained, massive, multi-platform, multi-axis strategic missile attack utilizing hypersonic "Kinzhal" missiles from MiG-31K (new launch confirmed), multiple, successive waves of ballistic missiles (likely Iskanders) from ground launchers in Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts, strategic cruise missiles (Kh-101/555) from Tu-95MS and now fresh cruise missiles from Bryansk/Kursk direction, and heavy anti-ship missiles (Kh-22) from Tu-22M3. The focus on "second, third, fourth waves" on Kyiv highlights a clear intent to sustain overwhelming pressure. The expansion of missile paths towards Zhytomyr and Rivne (Dubno), and now a new cruise missile threat to Odesa, confirms their intent and capability to strike deeper into Western and Southern Ukraine. Confirmed impacts across 8+ Ukrainian oblasts demonstrate this capability. Rivne OVA confirms attacks on Rivne Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Ukrainian AD successfully neutralized 479 out of 499 incoming aerial targets, but 20 still penetrated. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonel Ihnat confirms main target was an operational airfield, implying continued focus on degrading Ukrainian air assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Ground Offensive Capabilities (Confirmed & Persistent, Increasing Pressure in Sumy/Donetsk, and Now Dnipropetrovsk IO): General Staff reports confirm Russian forces are actively conducting offensive operations on multiple axes. Voin DV claims drone strikes by 35th Combined Arms Army and "expelling enemy from DPR territory," including successful counter-UAV and ground strikes in Voskresenka. Narodnaya Militsiya DNR claims destruction of AFU armored vehicles. Colonelcassad posts video claiming "breakthrough" into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Kotenok posts same video claiming "transition of advanced units across administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast." TASS quotes Marochko stating Dnipropetrovsk offensive allows "cutting off" AFU groupings. TASS/MoD Russia videos showcase claimed destruction of BMP-2 and mortar positions. Dnevnik Desantnika explicitly confirms Russian ground forces entering Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Air Defense Capability (Adaptation): The announced recruitment for FPV-Air Defense operators for "Bars-Sarmat" indicates a new, urgent adaptation to counter Ukrainian drone threats, particularly those targeting civilian infrastructure in Russia's European and capital regions. The construction of hardened aircraft shelters at Khalino (Kursk) further indicates defensive adaptations. Voin DV claims successful AD actions against Ukrainian UAVs. TASS reports criminal case opened over Ukrainian UAV attack in Kursk, reflecting ongoing internal security response to drone threats. Fighterbomber claims no aircraft losses at VKS airfields from UAV attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Sabotage/Internal Security: FSB claims preventing sabotage at Moscow OPH enterprise with IEDs, indicating Russia's capability for internal counter-sabotage operations, or potential for false flag operations to justify actions. Kotsnews confirms FSB actions against sabotage and contraband. TASS gives further details, alleging Ukrainian agency recruitment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Intentions:
  • Sustained Overwhelming Retaliation and Deterrence (Active Execution at Maximum Scale, Expanding Targets West & South): The ongoing strategic strike, featuring "Kinzhal" (renewed launch) and multiple ballistic/cruise waves, is intended to inflict maximum damage on Ukrainian critical infrastructure and urban centers, serving as severe retaliation for recent deep strikes and to deter further Ukrainian cross-border or deep-rear operations. The successive waves and the shift to Western targets (Zhytomyr, Rivne, Dubno) and now a new cruise missile threat to Odesa, indicate intent to sustain overwhelming pressure and break AD across a wider area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The confirmed main target being an operational airfield reinforces intent to degrade Ukrainian air capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Psychological Demoralization and Panic (Active Execution, Deepening Dehumanization & Threat, Expanding Discredit Campaigns, Anti-Warning IO): The explicit propaganda messaging accompanying the missile launches, now including direct threats (Rivne mockery, Volyn query, "final solution to Rivne question," "imaginary missiles" counter-IO, "cast iron supply," "nothing in Odesa"), and the deepening dehumanization ("chubaty al-Qaeda," "model Khokhol", "finish off survivors," "when will refrigerators carry them?") is aimed at inducing widespread fear and panic and undermining trust. The attempts to dismiss Ukrainian warnings ("imaginary missiles," "nothing happening in Odesa") are part of this. The renewed focus on the Greta Thunberg/Israel narrative serves as a distraction to redirect attention from the war. Exaggerated claims of Ukrainian losses (230 personnel, 6 Starlinks, 4,800 in LPR, and now 49 UAVs) aim to demoralize. The new claims of a "large grouping of AFU" being "blocked" near Poddubny (previously Komar), Dnipropetrovsk border, and now a bridge blown up near Komar, are direct, aggressive, and likely false, expansions of the Dnipropetrovsk offensive narrative, reinforced by video of claimed breakthrough. The new narrative by Dva Mayora about Ukrainians turning to drug trafficking with drones aims to discredit Ukrainian refugees and the nation as a whole. The amplified Los Angeles riots, including claims of "Kremlin agents" and police brutality against journalists, serve to distract and sow distrust in Western governance. The new claims of "contraband" of helicopter parts and an international warrant against a Ukrainian citizen aim to frame Ukraine as engaged in illegal activities. The "war is profit for West" propaganda is designed to erode international support. The public display of internal issues like disease outbreaks, while seemingly neutral, can serve to imply that Russia faces its own challenges and distract from the war. Kotenok's video and TASS statements explicitly re-emphasize the Dnipropetrovsk offensive narrative. TASS reporting 56 arrests in LA protests and the criminal case over the Kursk UAV attack serve to bolster the victim narrative and distract from Russian actions. The "droppers" legislation aims to project law and order internally. New: Alex Parker Returns' fabricated "Slava Rossii" scars and dehumanizing rhetoric are aimed at mocking Ukrainian identity and inciting hatred. WarGonzo's training video aims to project strength and commitment to their war effort. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Courses of Action (COA):
  • MLCOA 1 (Confirmed & Actively Executing at Maximum Scale with Hypersonic/Ballistic/Cruise Escalation & WESTWARD/SOUTHERN SHIFT, and Sustained Ground Pressure, Now with Active Anti-Warning Information Warfare and Exaggerated Claims of Ukrainian Attrition, and New Deep Strike Propaganda): Immediate, Massive, Diversified Strategic Missile Attack Targeting Critical Infrastructure and Urban Centers, Coordinated with Ground Pressure and Deepening Deception Operations, now featuring hypersonic, ballistic, and cruise missiles in successive waves, with active counter-IO against Ukrainian warnings, and an expanded geographic scope to include Western Ukrainian targets (Zhytomyr, Rivne, Dubno) and Southern targets (Odesa). Russia is currently launching a mass-scale strategic missile assault, leveraging MiG-31K (Kinzhal - new launch confirmed), multiple, successive waves of ground-launched ballistic missiles (Iskanders) from Bryansk and Kursk (targeting Kyiv/Chernihiv and now confirmed Zhytomyr and Rivne/Dubno), cruise missiles from Bryansk/Kursk, 5 Tu-95MS bombers from Olenya (launched Kh-101/555), AND 4 Tu-22M3 bombers from Engels-2 (launched Kh-22s towards coastal areas). This follows initial saturation with Shaheds and active Kh-31P SEAD attempts. This attack is targeting Kyiv (confirmed damage in Darnytskyi, now facing multiple waves), Kharkiv ("cast iron supply"), Poltava (power line damage), Chernihiv (explosions confirmed), Rivne (explosions confirmed, Dubno under Shahed attack and confirmed missile target, "very difficult night" confirmed by OVA, new explosions confirmed, Poddubny and Colonelcassad claim attacks on Dubno, Rivne OVA confirms damage to infrastructure), Dnipro, Odesa (new cruise missile threat), Zhytomyr (missiles now confirmed over Northern Kyiv Oblast and moving to Zhytomyr Oblast, then further West), Kremenchuk, Zaporizhzhia (new air raid alert, confirmed casualty, new civilian casualty and damage reports, further visual confirmation of damage from KABs on residential areas), Ternopil, Cherkasy, and other key urban centers/infrastructure, with high probability of prioritizing energy and water infrastructure, military-industrial targets, and potentially coastal/port infrastructure. Confirmed aviation weapon threat for Synelnykove district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Concurrently, KAB strikes on Kharkiv will continue to support ground advances or create urban destruction, as evidenced by TASS video. Voin DV's video supports this with a strike on Malynivka by 35th CAA. KABs confirmed on Donetsk Oblast. On the ground, attritional assaults on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk direction) and other fronts (Kursk, Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretskyi, Kramatorsk, Gulyaypolsky, Orikhiv, Siversk) will persist. Silly Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports increased activity in the South. Russian IO will intensify their "Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough" narrative, reinforced by high-level political statements, and now including claims of "blocking" AFU near Poddubny and AFU blowing up a bridge near Komar, and "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny," supported by new video claims of "breakthrough" into Dnipropetrovsk (Colonelcassad, Kotenok, Dnevnik Desantnika), and TASS quoting military expert Marochko on "cutting off" AFU groupings. Russia will continue tactical deception (e.g., "Chernihiv not needed," now direct questions about Volyn, mocking Rivne and threatening its "final solution," asking about Dubno, claiming "imaginary missiles," "nothing happening in Odesa") while overtly promoting the scale of the incoming missile strike. Critically, Russia will actively attempt to undermine Ukrainian air raid warnings by claiming "imaginary missiles" or "EW game." Russian propaganda will also intensify efforts to frame Ukrainian attempts to acquire spare parts as "contraband." Russian propaganda will also actively work to undermine Zelensky's legitimacy, fuel anti-NATO sentiment, spread highly damaging social disinformation (e.g., "Ukrainians turning to drug trafficking with drones," "war is profit for West"), and attempt to distract with irrelevant Western political news (Greta Thunberg, US politics, internal arrests, Okinawa airbase explosion, Los Angeles riots, now with confirmed arrest numbers) amplified with fabricated content (e.g., Trump tweet). The new dehumanizing rhetoric and direct threats will intensify, along with claims of high Ukrainian losses (230 personnel, 6 Starlinks, 4,800 in LPR, and now 49 UAVs), and claims of high Ukrainian UAV losses over Russia (49 UAVs claimed by Kotenok, Voin DV claims 40 UAVs destroyed). Russia will also attempt to control the cyber narrative and amplify claims of Ukrainian equipment losses (Abrams). Russian forces will continue to use and promote new drone capabilities for cargo and bombing (S-80) and precision strikes (fiber optic drones with thermal cameras). Russia will also use internal security incidents (Moscow OPH sabotage, soldier AWOL, murder of Mariupol air commander) for domestic messaging/distraction. Colonelcassad's video of a USV being struck by a loitering munition in the Black Sea indicates continued naval drone threats.
    • Confidence: HIGH (Confirmed continued ballistic/cruise missile launches in waves, ongoing Kinzhal threat with new launch, confirmed strategic bomber activity, with increased numbers, active Shahed/KAB activity and documented tactical successes, confirmed impacts across a widening AOR, escalating Dnipropetrovsk IO now with high-level political backing and new specific claims and video, new, specific social disinformation, and confirmed new wave of aerial assets indicated, are directly in line with this combined COA, now at maximum observed intensity for air attack, with sustained multi-wave targeting, active counter-IO, and confirmed westward and now southern expansion of strike focus. Claims of high Ukrainian losses are consistent with Russian propaganda patterns. New information confirming the Cheboksary factory produces anti-EW equipment for drones highlights a significant Ukrainian deep strike success and confirms Russia's efforts to protect its UAVs, which will be further weaponized by Russia's IO. New details from captured POW corroborate specific Russian TTPs on the ground, including human wave assaults and poor personnel treatment. General Staff reports confirm continued ground pressure on multiple axes. WarGonzo updates confirm continued claims of ground advances. ASTRA claim regarding Okinawa and Los Angeles riots are consistent with distraction tactics. New video claims of "breakthrough" and new propaganda narratives reinforce this MLCOA. Confirmed Ukrainian deep strikes on Cheboksary and Savasleyka will likely only reinforce this retaliatory MLCOA. Kotenok's claim of 49 UAVs shot down is consistent with this. Rivne OVA confirming overnight strikes confirms continued western targeting. Recruitment for FPV-Air Defense confirms active counter-drone measures by Russia. New claims of troop transfer to Sumy and "spy" interrogation are consistent with IO objectives. Aviation weapon threat to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reinforces this. New video confirmations of Dnipropetrovsk claims (Kotenok, Dnevnik Desantnika) and TASS expert commentary reinforce this. Colonel Ihnat's statement on airfield targeting is consistent. New reports of Russian internal security incidents (Moscow OPH, soldier AWOL) indicate these will be part of the domestic narrative. RSZO strike on Rylsk confirms continued border region activity. New images confirming civilian damage in Zaporizhzhia and the FPV strike in Belgorod confirm aspects of this MLCOA. Alex Parker Returns' dehumanizing propaganda is consistent. Fighterbomber's denial of aircraft losses aligns with their counter-IO. Colonelcassad's USV strike video shows continued naval drone countermeasures. )

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• Sustained Multi-Wave Ballistic/Cruise Missile Attacks Targeting Western and Southern Ukraine (Renewed Kinzhal): The repeated launches of ballistic and now cruise missiles from Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts in rapid succession, with a confirmed shift in trajectory to Zhytomyr and Rivne (Dubno), and now a new cruise missile threat to Odesa, indicates a tactical adaptation to overwhelm AD across a broader front, including Western and Southern Ukraine. The new MiG-31K takeoff reconfirms the sustained Kinzhal threat in this multi-wave assault. Rivne OVA confirms attacks on Rivne Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonel Ihnat confirms the main target was an operational airfield, indicating a specific tactical objective within the broader strategic strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Counter-IO against Air Warnings: The explicit Russian milblogger attempts to dismiss Ukrainian air raid warnings as "imaginary" or an "EW game," and claiming "nothing is happening in Odesa," represents a new and dangerous tactical adaptation in their information warfare, aiming to reduce public adherence to warnings and thus increase casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• New Ground Deception (Dnipropetrovsk Specificity with Video & Expert Claims): The new TASS claim of a portion of AFU being "destroyed" in Poddubny on the DPR border, and WarGonzo's specific claims of Orikhove tactical successes and reaching Dnipropetrovsk border, and now Operatsiya Z's video claiming "breakthrough of Russian assault groups into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast" and Colonelcassad's video represent an ongoing and escalating attempt to create false narratives of ground breakthroughs, now leveraging visual "evidence." Voin DV's new video also shows a map segment identifying "DPR" and "Dnipropetrovsk Oblast" with dashed lines. Kotenok explicitly re-posts the "border crossing" video, and TASS quotes military expert Marochko on "cutting off" AFU groupings, confirming further high-level amplification and specific tactical claims. Dnevnik Desantnika also explicitly states Russian forces entered Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• New Distraction Tactics (Los Angeles Riots, etc.): ASTRA's claims regarding an incident at Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, and the ongoing Los Angeles riots represent new attempts at global distraction or to sow discord regarding US internal stability or military presence. This is amplified by other milbloggers like Alex Parker Returns, now including fabricated content (Trump tweet) and claims of police brutality against journalists (TASS). Operatyvnyi ZSU also amplifies this on Ukrainian channels. TASS reporting 56 arrests in LA protests confirms the continued and specific amplification. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• New Discreditation Narrative (Ukrainian Drug Trafficking & Contraband, "War is Profit for West"): Dva Mayora's propagation of the narrative that Ukrainians will turn to drug trafficking with drones represents a new attempt to discredit Ukrainian society and refugees, particularly targeting Western audiences. The amplification of the "contraband helicopter parts" narrative (Operatsiya Z) is another attempt to discredit Ukrainian logistics. ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZA's "War is Profit for West" is a new narrative to erode Western support for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Basurin also posts a video claiming "contrabandists" tried to "revive" Ukrainian helicopters with Russian parts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Explicit "Finish off Survivors" Rhetoric & Mockery of Casualties: Alex Parker Returns' post "Добейте выживших" (Finish off the survivors) and "Когда уже рефрижераторы повезут?" (When will the refrigerators carry them?) indicate a new level of explicit dehumanization and incitement to war crimes, and mockery of Ukrainian casualties. New: Alex Parker Returns posts an image with "Slava Rossii" scarred on a person's abdomen, alongside a Ukrainian bracelet, with mocking text about "Khokhols in a refrigerator." This is a new, extremely aggressive, and dehumanizing propaganda tactic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Claims of Russian Air Superiority: Operatsiya Z's claim of "Rubicon" achieving air superiority, accompanied by a video of a claimed UAV shootdown, indicates a new narrative push to assert aerial dominance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Hardened Aircraft Shelters: Construction of hardened aircraft shelters at Khalino airfield (Kursk) shows a direct adaptation to mitigate risks from Ukrainian deep strikes, indicating a defensive tactical shift. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• FPV-Air Defense Recruitment: The public announcement of FPV-Air Defense operator recruitment indicates an operational adaptation to integrate FPV drones into air defense roles against Ukrainian UAVs, particularly in rear areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Internal Security Control: TASS report on tightening control over messenger access indicates an adaptation to control internal information flow and potentially counter Ukrainian influence operations. The "spy" interrogation video (Mash na Donbasse) reinforces this. TASS reports State Duma Committee approving criminal liability for "droppers" indicates further tightening of financial/digital control. FSB preventing sabotage at Moscow OPH enterprise, detaining two with IEDs. Kotsnews also reports FSB action on OPH sabotage and "military product contraband." TASS provides further details on the alleged Ukrainian agent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Open Acknowledgement of Disease Outbreaks: Novosti Moskvy's report on measles/pertussis/rubella outbreaks is an unusual public acknowledgement of internal issues, possibly intended to manage public perception or deflect from war-related internal strains. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Mobilizatsiya News reporting on a soldier AWOL/shooting and ASTRA reporting murder of a Mariupol air commander indicate potential internal discipline/morale issues within the Russian military, which Russia may attempt to contain or frame differently. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
• Black Sea Operations: Dva Mayora's claim of Tu-22M3/Kh-22/32 strikes on Black Sea gas platforms and Snake Island (even if the date is a placeholder) suggests a potential tactical shift to re-assert control or target Ukrainian/Western interests in the Black Sea. (CONFIDENCE: LOW to MEDIUM, depending on verification). Colonelcassad's video showing a USV strike by a loitering munition confirms continued Russian efforts to counter naval drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• Strategic Missile & UAV Supply: The sustained, multi-wave launches from MiG-31K, multiple ballistic missile batteries, and strategic bombers indicates Russia retains significant stockpiles of "Kinzhal," ballistic missiles (Iskander), strategic cruise missiles (Kh-101, Kh-555, Kh-22/32), and UAVs for a prolonged, high-intensity aerial campaign. This suggests a higher inventory than previously assessed for high-value assets like Kinzhal and Iskander, or a willingness to deplete them rapidly. Ukrainian strike on the Cheboksary "VNIIR-Progress" factory, which produces antennas for Shaheds, UMPK modules, and missiles, is a significant blow to their supply chain for these critical components, though Russia is actively trying to compensate by building shelters and recruiting FPV-AD operators. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The FSB claims of preventing Mi-8/Mi-17 parts contraband highlight the ongoing covert supply chain for Ukrainian military equipment, and Russian efforts to disrupt it. Kotsnews confirms FSB action on contraband. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The Kazan powder plant fire, if confirmed as such, would be a significant blow to Russian munitions production, especially for explosives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Information Warfare Capacity: The rapid generation and dissemination of new, specific disinformation, distraction tactics (including new focus on Greta Thunberg/Israel, Okinawa airbase incident, Los Angeles riots), and direct threats, and the aggressive, pre-emptive psychological operations around the strategic strikes, including efforts to counter Ukrainian AD warnings and discredit Ukrainian society, indicate a highly agile and resourced IO apparatus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Internal Economic Strain: Reports on rising food and shawarma prices in Russia indicate potential domestic economic strain impacting morale, though this is likely offset by propaganda. The Zemfira tax debt narrative is a likely attempt to control public perception of internal dissent. The dental clinic ad by Dva Mayora suggests a subtle attempt to promote an image of internal well-being. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The bribery charges against the Krasnoyarsk Mayor also indicate internal corruption issues within Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Emergency Response Capacity: The fuel spill on the Yenisei and the Kazan industrial fire indicate that significant civilian resources are being diverted to respond to internal incidents, potentially straining overall resource availability, though likely localized. The Kazan powder plant fire would demand immense resources. Operatyvnyi ZSU confirms Yenisei fuel spill, reinforcing resource strain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The fire in Rylsk district, Kursk Oblast, following RSZO attack indicates ongoing localized emergency response demands. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• Russian C2: The synchronized multi-domain strikes (Shaheds, KABs, strategic cruise missiles from multiple platforms, hypersonic "Kinzhal," multiple, successive waves of ballistic/cruise missiles from multiple ground launchers now targeting a wider geographic area, including Western and Southern Ukraine) and rapid, coordinated IO campaigns demonstrating effective, centralized Russian C2. The immediate amplification of the Dnipropetrovsk narrative by TASS and high-level political figures, and the dissemination of specific social disinformation including video claims, confirms high-level C2 over IO. The coordinated efforts to undermine Ukrainian AD warnings further indicate robust C2 over IO. The immediate reporting of claimed Ukrainian losses by "West" grouping further demonstrates effective C2 and rapid dissemination of information for propaganda purposes. Putin's approval of the new Naval strategy indicates long-term strategic C2 over military development. The FPV-Air Defense recruitment demonstrates C2's ability to identify and respond to new threats. The video showing drone-guided artillery strikes near Konstantinovka suggests effective tactical C2 and ISR-to-strike linkage. Kotenok's video and TASS expert commentary re-amplifying Dnipropetrovsk claims confirm persistent C2 over the IO. TASS/MoD Russia videos of claimed BDA also demonstrate effective C2 in reporting tactical successes. FSB preventing Moscow OPH sabotage demonstrates internal security C2. Kotsnews confirming FSB actions on sabotage/contraband highlights integrated C2. The bribery charges against Krasnoyarsk Mayor indicate internal anti-corruption efforts, suggesting C2 over judicial processes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian C2: Ukrainian authorities' rapid public warnings and AD responses continue to demonstrate effective C2 for public safety and military readiness, but are severely tested by the anticipated strategic strike of this magnitude, now including sustained hypersonic and ballistic threats across multiple waves and coordinated IO to induce complacency. The prompt reporting by Rivne OVA and Cherkasy OVA despite impacts shows resilient C2. The successful operation involving the capture of a Russian POW, with subsequent intelligence gathering and potential dissemination, indicates effective C2 for intelligence and special operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The prompt reporting of Zaporizhzhia air raid all-clear and Kharkiv Oblast damage reports indicates effective local and central C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The reporting by Air Force Command of specific missile trajectories (Sumy to West, Rivne) and reconnaissance UAVs in Dnipropetropvs. "Azov" PPO demonstrating effectiveness against UAVs on Toretskyi direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The confirmed strike on Cheboksary and Savasleyka by Ukrainian forces demonstrates highly effective deep strike C2. The arrest of a spy in Kyiv region indicates effective counter-intelligence C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The Ukrainian Air Force's quick release of total neutralized targets (479/499) shows transparent and effective C2 in reporting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The sentencing of a Mykolaiv collaborator highlights effective counter-intelligence C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Zaporizhzhia OVA reports on additional casualties and damage, with public assistance numbers, indicating sustained C2 for civilian response. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonel Ihnat's statement confirms centralized BDA and targeting analysis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). OTU "Kharkiv"'s FPV strike video demonstrates decentralized tactical C2 for drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Air Defense: On HIGHEST alert, currently engaged against Shaheds and now responding to successive waves of ballistic/cruise missiles from Bryansk/Kursk, in addition to the ongoing threat from strategic cruise missiles and Kinzhals, with a confirmed westward shift to Zhytomyr and Rivne (Dubno) Oblasts, and a new threat to Odesa, and a new Kinzhal launch. KCMVA reports a renewed "air alarm" for Kyiv due to ballistic threat, though this has now ended. Rivne OVA confirms renewed morning attacks and PPO engagement, noting "destroyed a large number of enemy targets." All AD assets are likely at maximum readiness and dispersal protocols are critical, with systems now stretched across an even wider geographic area, including central, western and southern Ukraine. The ballistic/cruise missile threat from the North (Bryansk/Kursk) and South (previous intelligence) requires specific, heightened AD preparedness. The explicit Russian counter-IO to dismiss warnings necessitates even greater vigilance and public communication to reinforce warning adherence. The statement from Rivne OVA confirms the severity of the ongoing aerial attacks but also highlights successful AD engagements ("destroyed a large number of enemy targets"). Zaporizhzhia air raid alert has been stood down, but a reconnaissance UAV in its suburbs and now aviation weapon threat for Synelnykove district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast requires ongoing readiness in those sectors. Confirmed widespread strikes across 8+ Ukrainian oblasts indicate the challenge to AD, with 20 targets not neutralized from a 499 incoming wave. Successful interception of 6 UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and 33 UAVs over Cherkasy Oblast. Poland's decision to scramble fighter jets and activate AD assets further highlights the severe and widespread nature of the Russian air attack and the potential for spillover near NATO borders. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Ukrainian Air Force is actively tracking missiles on Sumy and Rivne oblasts, and a reconnaissance UAV in Dnipropetropvs. "Azov" PPO demonstrating effectiveness against UAVs on Toretskyi direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonel Ihnat confirms main target was an operational airfield, implying AD is actively defending key military assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ground Forces: Maintaining defensive integrity. The escalating Dnipropetrovsk IO, now validated by high-level Russian political figures and new claims of "blocking" AFU near Poddubny and a bridge blown near Komar, and now "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny," and new video claims of "breakthrough," continues to create psychological pressure and potential for misdirection, demanding continued vigilance. Ukrainian forces are demonstrating high proficiency in drone warfare (including using FPVs for AD roles), combined arms tactics (drones and mortars), and strong defensive positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). General Staff reports confirm defensive posture and repelling of attacks on multiple axes. BUTUSOV PLUS video shows effective drone work by 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade pilots leading to Russian surrender. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Silly Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports increased enemy activity in the South and their own successful strikes on enemy positions, indicating active defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). "Wolves of Da Vinci" demonstrate effective drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" is actively engaged in recruit training, ensuring force generation. General Staff releasing daily enemy loss figures maintains transparency and morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The arrest of a spy in Kyiv region and sentencing of a Mykolaiv collaborator indicates effective counter-intelligence efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Zaporizhzhia police battalion anniversary reinforces continuous force generation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO's FPV drone compilation (with "BALISTA" and "requiem group" logos) showcases continued offensive drone capability. DeepState map update implies ongoing tactical adjustments to force posture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). OTU "Kharkiv" demonstrates continued offensive FPV drone capabilities against Russian rear assets in Belgorod. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Information Defense: Actively monitoring and countering Russian disinformation, but the volume and increasing specificity of Russian claims (e.g., Dnipropetrovsk amplified by TASS and Klishas, "debt collector" narrative, "educating chubaty al-Qaeda," "cast iron supply to Kharkiv," new claim of "blocking" AFU near Poddubny, Komar bridge claim, and "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny," and new video claims of "breakthrough," Operatsiya Z's amplification of "contraband helicopter parts"), direct threats (Rivne, Volyn query, "final solution to Rivne," asking about Dubno, claiming "imaginary missiles," "nothing happening in Odesa," "when will refrigerators carry them?"), and the overt psychological warfare accompanying the missile strikes, including direct attempts to undermine AD warnings, require rapid, robust counter-narratives and verification. The new distraction tactics like the Greta Thunberg/Israel narrative, economic data, NATO reduction calls, Ryabkov's statements on US relations, Okinawa airbase incident, Los Angeles riots (now with fabricated Trump tweets and police brutality claims) also require monitoring and refutation. The new narrative about Ukrainians turning to drug trafficking and the "finish off the survivors" rhetoric must be swiftly rebutted. The captured POW testimony provides valuable counter-propaganda material regarding Russian TTPs and treatment of personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The swift release of air threat neutralization numbers (479/499) by the Ukrainian Air Force demonstrates proactive information defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The Koordynatsijny Shtab's humanitarian posts regarding children in Uzbekistan serve to counter Russian narratives about "refugees." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The Russian propaganda "war is profit for West" must be countered. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The Kazan fire should be exploited as a potential deep strike success if confirmed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Zaporizhzhia OVA's public appeals for assistance with contact info provide concrete evidence of Russian attacks and demonstrate transparent local governance. Operatyvnyi ZSU's post about the Yenisei fuel spill leverages Russian internal issues for IO. The STERNENKO FPV compilation, while showing tactical action, is also an IO piece for fundraising. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). New: Explicitly counter Alex Parker Returns' dehumanizing propaganda and fabricated images portraying "Slava Rossii" scars on Ukrainians, highlighting it as psychological warfare designed to sow internal division and hatred. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes:
  • Strategic Missile Threat "All Clear" (for previous wave): Ukrainian Air Force reports "all clear" for missile danger across oblasts. KCMVA reports "all clear" for Kyiv. While attacks continued, the immediate wave has passed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR official source). However, a new ballistic threat to Kyiv is now active.
  • UAV Threat Neutralized (Current Wave for some areas): Ukrainian Air Force reporting "all clear" for UAV threat indicates successful neutralization or cessation of the Shahed wave. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR official source). Successful destruction of 6 UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and 33 UAVs over Cherkasy Oblast. Total 479/499 aerial targets neutralized. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Deep Strike on WPIC Facility (Cheboksary): Ukrainian General Staff confirms strikes on "VNIIR-Progress" JSC / "ABS Electro" LLC in Cheboksary, Chuvashia Republic, Russia. This facility produces antennas for "Kometa" systems used in Shaheds, UMPK modules (FAB glide kits), and missiles. This is a highly significant strategic success, directly impacting Russia's precision strike capabilities and drone production. "Dva Mayora" and ASTRA also confirm the attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Kotsnews's complaint about a factory being hit weekly confirms the impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Deep Strike on Savasleyka Airfield: Ukrainian General Staff, Operatyvnyi ZSU, RBC-Ukraine, Tsaplienko, Nikolaev Vanek, Chef Hayabusa, and Sever.Realia (RU media) confirm strikes on "two aircraft" at Savasleyka airfield (Nizhny Novgorod Oblast). This is a major deep strike against a key Russian airbase housing MiG-31K Kinzhal carriers. Dnevnik Desantnika also reports "airfields" among targets, corroborating. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Effective Drone Operations: BUTUSOV PLUS video confirms effective drone work by pilots of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, successfully targeting Russian personnel and forcing a surrender. "Wolves of Da Vinci" video further showcases effective drone work. "Azov" PPO effectively downed UAVs using UAR-15 rifles and FPV drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO's FPV drone compilation shows continued offensive FPV drone success against vehicles and personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). New: OTU "Kharkiv" showcases FPV drone strike on a Russian military truck in Belgorod Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Ballistic/Cruise Missile Interception: Rivne OVA confirms AD destroyed "a large number of enemy targets." Ukrainian Air Force reports 479/499 aerial targets neutralized. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Rare ZALA 20 Series UAV Captured: STERNENKO's report of capturing a ZALA 20 series UAV provides valuable intelligence for understanding Russian ISR/strike capabilities and potentially developing countermeasures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Successful Strikes in Southern Ukraine: Silly Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports continued successful strikes on enemy locations, firing positions, and rear areas in the South. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Spy Arrest in Kyiv Region: Office of the Prosecutor General reports the arrest of a man who transmitted military data to Russia. Operatyvnyi ZSU provides photo confirmation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Mykolaiv collaborator sentenced to 9 years. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Kazan Powder Plant Fire (Likely Deep Strike): While not officially confirmed by Ukraine, the significant fire and explosions at the Kazan Powder Plant (Chef Hayabusa) are highly suspicious given the ongoing deep strike campaign. If confirmed as a Ukrainian operation, this would be a major strategic success against Russian military-industrial capacity. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - circumstantial evidence and pattern of deep strikes).
  • Internal Russian Discipline/Crime: ASTRA reports arrest in Stavropol for murder of Mariupol air assault commander. Mobilizatsiya News reports soldier AWOL and shooting. These internal issues, while not direct Ukrainian successes, demonstrate internal instability/weaknesses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Krasnoyarsk Mayor charged with bribery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Setbacks:
  • Strategic Missile Penetration (Kyiv & Western/Southern Ukraine, Renewed Kinzhal, Ballistic Threat): Confirmed damage to an office building in Kyiv's Darnytskyi district and explosions in Chernihiv. Missiles are now extending threat to Zhytomyr and further West into Rivne Oblast (Dubno), with Russian milbloggers claiming success in Dubno, and a new cruise missile threat to Odesa. New Kinzhal launch confirmed via MiG-31K takeoff, triggering nationwide alarms. Three strong explosions confirmed in Rivne. This indicates successful penetration of AD across a wider geographic area. The multi-wave attack on Kyiv is particularly concerning. The "very difficult night" for Rivne confirms significant impact and one civilian casualty. A 23-year-old civilian male was wounded in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Power line damage in Poltava Oblast from UAV debris. Confirmed explosions/strikes across Kyiv, Ternopil, Rivne, Poltava, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Donetsk Oblasts highlight widespread successful penetration. Cherkasy Oblast sustained damage from UAV debris. Kharkiv Oblast reports strikes on 9 settlements. Rivne Oblast was attacked again this morning, with an infrastructure object damaged. Zaporizhzhia Oblast reports 7 houses significantly damaged. Zaporizhzhia OVA reports another female civilian in serious condition due to attack. KABs confirmed on Donetsk Oblast. Visual evidence from RBK-Ukraine, ASTRA, and Tsaplienko confirms severe civilian damage in Zaporizhzhia, consistent with KAB impact, and at least two injured civilians. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Sustained Strategic Missile Threat (Active, Widespread, Hypersonic/Ballistic/Cruise, Multi-Wave, Westward/Southern Shift, Renewed Kinzhal): The confirmed takeoff of 9 strategic bombers (5x Tu-95MS, 4x Tu-22M3, with Tu-22M3s having launched and returning, and Tu-95MS now launching Kh-101/555), PLUS active MiG-31K with "Kinzhal" (new launch) and multiple, successive waves of ground-launched ballistic missiles (Iskanders) and cruise missiles from Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts, now explicitly targeting Zhytomyr and Rivne (Dubno) and Odesa represents a critical and immediate threat of widespread destruction and potential casualties. Confirmed impacts in Kyiv, Rivne, Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv, Ternopil, Cherkasy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk highlight this active threat. The speed and trajectory of "Kinzhal" and ballistic/cruise missiles severely reduce warning times. The Ukrainian Air Force confirmed 20 incoming aerial targets were not neutralized from a wave of 499. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Sophisticated Psychological Pressure (Escalated & Politically Backed, with Direct Threats & Mockery, and Counter-Warning IO, and New Ground Deception with Video, and New Discreditation Narratives): The escalating and highly specific disinformation regarding a Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough (now amplified by TASS citing fake "The Times" and by high-level political figures, and a new claim of "blocking" AFU near Poddubny and a bridge blown near Komar, and "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny," supported by new video claims of "breakthrough"), the overt pre-strike propaganda and post-strike mockery ("Rovno getting crooked," "What about Volyn?", and "final solution to Rivne question," "Dubno was normal?"), and the deepening dehumanization ("chubaty al-Qaeda," "model Khokhol," "finish off the survivors," "when will refrigerators carry them?") poses a significant risk of internal confusion, panic, or misallocation of resources. The explicit attempt to dismiss Ukrainian air raid warnings as "imaginary" or "EW game," and claiming "nothing is happening in Odesa," is a dangerous new escalation. Exaggerated claims of Ukrainian losses (230 personnel, 6 Starlinks, 4,800 in LPR, 49 UAVs) contribute to this pressure. The new narrative by Dva Mayora about Ukrainians turning to drug trafficking with drones is designed to discredit Ukrainian society and incite fear in Western countries. The amplification of US riots, including false claims (Trump tweet) and police brutality against journalists, aims to distract and undermine Western unity. Kotenok's explicit video promoting "border crossing" and TASS expert commentary reinforce the Dnipropetrovsk threat. TASS reporting on LA arrests and Kursk UAV attack criminal case continues this pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). New: Alex Parker Returns' fabricated image and dehumanizing language are a new level of psychological warfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Russian Cross-Border Shelling: Rylsk, Kursk Oblast, was again shelled by RSZO, demonstrating continued cross-border activity and a persistent threat to border communities. ASTRA reports one civilian killed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Air Defense Munitions: The incoming large-scale strategic missile attack from multiple platforms, including hypersonic, ballistic, and cruise missiles in successive waves, now extending to Western and Southern Ukraine, and with a renewed Kinzhal launch, will place unprecedented, critical strain on AD munition stockpiles, particularly for systems capable of intercepting advanced threats. URGENT international resupply remains paramount, as this attack will deplete significant inventories. The fact that 20 targets were not neutralized out of a wave of 499 highlights existing pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• ISR for Disinformation Verification: Increased ISR is critical to rapidly and definitively verify or refute Russian ground claims, especially for the Dnipropetrovsk axis (now with Poddubny/Komar claims and new video claims, including Dnevnik Desantnika's explicit claim), and to counter new social disinformation (e.g., Ukrainian drug trafficking with drones, Los Angeles riots narratives), to prevent costly redeployments or panic. This includes verifying Russian claims of high Ukrainian losses and Starlink destruction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian Propaganda - Offensive and Psychological Warfare (Escalated, Active, and Politically Backed, with Direct Threats, Mockery, Anti-Warning IO, and New Ground Deception with Video, WESTWARD/SOUTHERN SHIFT, and New Discreditation Narratives, and Incitement to War Crimes):
  • "Massive Strike" Promotion & Dehumanization (Active & Sustained): Russian milbloggers (НгП раZVедка, Два майора, Operatsiya Z, Kotsnews, Dnevnik Desantnika, Alex Parker Returns, Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition, Colonelcassad) are overtly advertising the incoming strike, now claiming "second, third, fourth waves" on Kyiv as "educational measures," and using dehumanizing language ("iTarasys don't understand," "chubaty al-Qaeda," "model Khokhol," "finish off the survivors," "when will refrigerators carry them?"), aiming to maximize pre-impact terror and demoralization while justifying the attacks. They are confirming "Kinzhal" and Iskander strikes. They are also now directly asking "Was Dubno a normal city at all?" and stating "Apparently, not really," confirming perceived success in Western Ukraine, and explicitly claiming "another 10 reparations flying to Dubno." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Dnevnik Desantnika and Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition claim a strike on Dubno airbase. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). They also use cynical references like "VKS has established a supply of cast iron to Kharkiv." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RU MoD claims 49 Ukrainian UAVs shot down (Kotenok). Voin DV claims 40 UAVs destroyed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - as claim). Operatsiya Z also claims "Rubicon" achieving air superiority. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). НгП раZVедка claims "several hundred strikes" on Dubno airfield, continuing the narrative of extensive damage. They also claim "up to 5 MiG-29s destroyed" at Dubno. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - as claims). Fighterbomber explicitly denies any VKS aircraft losses from UAV attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - counter-IO). New: Alex Parker Returns uses a fabricated image with "Slava Rossii" scarred on a person's abdomen, along with a Ukrainian bracelet, to mock Ukrainian identity and dehumanize them, using the caption "One of the Khokhols in the refrigerator suddenly woke up. A miracle!" This is a new, explicit level of dehumanizing propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Dnipropetrovsk Amplification (Active & Politically Backed, New Ground Claim with Video): TASS citing a (likely fabricated) "The Times" article to support the Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough narrative, directly supported by high-level political figures, remains active. New TASS claim of "large grouping of AFU blocked in Poddubny" on Dnipropetrovsk border, and now "AFU blew up bridge near Komar" to avoid fire, and "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny" are dangerous escalations of this false narrative, intended to create panic and misdirect forces. Operatsiya Z and Voenkor Russkoy Vesny also release a video claiming "breakthrough of Russian assault groups into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast," attempting to provide visual 'evidence.' Colonelcassad also posts such a video. Voin DV's new video also shows a map highlighting "DPR" and "Dnipropetrovsk Oblast" with dashed lines. WarGonzo's photo message "Now you are in Russia!" could be related to these claims. WarGonzo reports "tactical successes" near Orikhove and claims of reaching Dnipropetrovsk border. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad shows "map changes" likely indicating claimed advances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Kotenok explicitly posts the "border crossing" video, reinforcing the visual 'evidence' of a breakthrough. TASS quotes military expert Marochko on the strategic benefit of the Dnipropetrovsk offensive to "cut off" AFU groupings. New: Dnevnik Desantnika explicitly confirms Russian troops entered Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Tactical Deception/Mockery & Anti-Warning IO (Active & Adaptive): The "Rovno is getting more and more crooked," "What about Volyn?", and "final solution to Rivne question" statements, following previous "Rivne/Chernihiv not needed," are clear attempts to misdirect Ukrainian AD or create false security while mocking successful strikes. "All drones shot down/suppressed" is clear overblown propaganda. Crucially, the explicit attempt to dismiss Ukrainian AD warnings as "imaginary" or "EW game," and claiming "nothing is happening in Odesa," represents a dangerous new form of information warfare aimed at inducing complacency and increasing casualties. The claim that "Geraniums became few" is similar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Fighterbomber denies Su-35 shootdown, another counter-IO attempt. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Distraction Propaganda (Okinawa, Los Angeles, etc.): ASTRA reporting on the Okinawa airbase incident and Los Angeles riots is a new distraction/deflection tactic. This is heavily amplified by Alex Parker Returns, Operatsiya Z, Rybar, Dva Mayora, STERNENKO (Ukrainian source), Basurin, and Janus Putkonen, now with fabricated content (Trump tweet) and claims of police brutality (TASS reports on reporter shot with a rubber bullet). Operatyvnyi ZSU's post titled "Los Angeles, Moscow trail" indicates this narrative is permeating Ukrainian information space. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). "Novosti Moskvy" celebrating "International Friends Day" also serves as a distraction. Colonelcassad continues with Greta Thunberg narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports on the Yenisei fuel spill and Zemfira's tax debt also serve as internal distractions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns pushing "luxury brands return to Russia" is an economic distraction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Arkhangel Spetsnaza discusses "migrant control," a domestic issue. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Novosti Moskvy also posts a satirical T-shirt ("We're flying to the loony bin") reflecting internal social commentary. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports 56 arrests in LA protests, providing specific numbers to amplify the chaos narrative. Полиция Хабаровского края reports on teenagers on a burnt building, a local issue that distracts from war. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports the Mayor of Krasnoyarsk is charged with bribery, serving as an internal distraction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • New Discreditation Narrative (Ukrainian Drug Trafficking & Contraband, "War is Profit for West"): Dva Mayora's post about "Western institutions studying threats from Ukrainians turning to drug trafficking with drones" is a new, insidious attempt to discredit Ukrainian society and foster negative sentiment, particularly among Western audiences, likely to erode support. Operatsiya Z amplifies claims about "contraband helicopter parts" to discredit Ukrainian military procurement. ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZA posts a graphic claiming "War in Ukraine - profit for the West" and alleges US SOF and Ukraine cooperation in satellite intelligence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Mash na Donbasse's "spy" interrogation video is another discreditation effort. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Basurin's video claiming "contrabandists" trying to "revive" Ukrainian helicopters with Russian parts reinforces this narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Exaggerated Internal Security Successes: TASS claiming arrest of Ukrainian spy in LPR and prevention of Mi-8/Mi-17 contraband of Mi-8/Mi-17 parts ("unprecedented number" of attempts, citizen internationally wanted). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - as claim). TASS reports FSB prevented sabotage at Moscow OPH enterprise, detaining two Russians with IEDs, promoting Russian internal security capabilities. Kotsnews also reports FSB action on OPH enterprise sabotage and "military product contraband." TASS specifies one saboteur worked at a defense plant and admitted to preparing "power bank" bombs, further bolstering the narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Economic Narrative Control: Sever.Realia and Novosti Moskvy reporting on rising food prices, likely aiming to control public perception of economic difficulties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • "Police Uncle Styopa" Dioramas: Хабаровский край's post on children's dioramas portraying military figures (one with a "Z" symbol) and a damaged building serve as soft power propaganda, normalizing military presence and conflict for a young audience, while associating military with positive societal role. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Acknowledging Deep Strike Impact (Kotsnews): Kotsnews's rare admission of a "factory important in the technological chain" being hit weekly by drones is a tactical propaganda shift, likely aimed at garnering public support for increased defense measures or justifying retaliation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Highlighting Ukrainian Refugee Numbers: Dva Mayora highlighting UN numbers for Ukrainian refugees (7 million) is a clear attempt to demoralize Ukraine by emphasizing displacement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • New Anti-Drone Measures: Dva Mayora's announcement of FPV-Air Defense recruitment is framed as a response to Ukrainian "terrorist attacks," reinforcing victim narrative while showcasing capability. Voin DV also claims successful counter-UAV operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports criminal case on Ukrainian UAV attack in Kursk, reinforcing victim narrative and justifying response. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Internal Social Issues: Novosti Moskvy's report on disease outbreaks is a rare acknowledgement of internal problems. Dva Mayora's dental clinic ad is a subtle positive spin. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Mobilizatsiya News reports on soldier AWOL/shooting and ASTRA reports on murder of Mariupol air commander, which could be spun internally as isolated incidents or external (Ukrainian) influence. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
  • Black Sea Power Projection: Dva Mayora's message about Tu-22M3/Kh-22/32 strikes on Black Sea gas platforms and Snake Island (even if the date is indicative) serves as a power projection narrative regarding control of the Black Sea. (CONFIDENCE: LOW to MEDIUM). Colonelcassad's video of a USV being struck by a loitering munition reinforces claims of Russian control over the Black Sea from naval drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Showcasing Russian Military Training: WarGonzo's video showcasing military training aims to project readiness and effectiveness of Russian forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian Information Operations - Transparency and Counter-Disinformation:
  • Timely Threat Warnings: Consistent and prompt warnings from Ukrainian authorities (e.g., KCMVA, Air Force, local officials, like Rivne OVA, Zaporizhzhia OVA, Dnipropetrovsk OVA, Poltava OVA, Cherkasy OVA) regarding air threats maintain public trust and facilitate preparedness. The "all clear" for UAVs and ballistic threats is also important for public morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). New warnings about MiG-31K, missiles on Sumy and Rivne, and recon UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk continue this transparency, including aviation weapon threat for Synelnykove district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Rivne OVA confirming renewed attacks and PPO engagement maintains honesty. Kyiv having a renewed ballistic alarm, with RBK-Ukraine posting maps of the alert, continues this transparency, now confirmed "all clear". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Air Force Command reporting 479/499 neutralized aerial targets is a clear, transparent success report. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The sentencing of a Mykolaiv collaborator highlights effective counter-intelligence C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Zaporizhzhia OVA reports on additional casualties and damage, with public assistance numbers, continue transparency. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonel Ihnat's statement on main target (airfield) is transparent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Direct Refutation of Disinformation (Ongoing Requirement & Elevated Urgency): Continued, aggressive refutation of Russian claims, especially the Dnipropetrovsk narrative (now with the added TASS/Klishas and Poddubny/Komar claims, "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny," and new video claims of "breakthrough," and Voin DV map, and Dnevnik Desantnika's explicit claim), the "debt collector" narrative, the dehumanizing rhetoric ("when will refrigerators carry them?"), and direct threats/mockery, and critically, the attempts to dismiss air raid warnings and denials of threats to specific cities like Odesa, is vital. This also includes refuting exaggerated claims of Ukrainian losses (230 personnel, 6 Starlinks, 49 UAVs, including the 49 UAVs claim) and Russian air superiority claims ("Rubicon"). The new narrative about Ukrainian drug trafficking and the "finish off the survivors" rhetoric must be immediately addressed and debunked. The Los Angeles riot narratives amplified by Russia also require refutation of fabricated claims. The "war is profit for West" propaganda must be countered. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). New: Explicitly refute Alex Parker Returns' dehumanizing propaganda and fabricated images that distort Ukrainian identity and promote hatred. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Showcasing Russian Brutality/Drone Effectiveness: BUTUSOV PLUS video of a Russian soldier surrendering after a drone strike on his comrade provides highly credible and impactful material for international and domestic information campaigns to expose Russian military practices (leaving wounded, human wave assaults) and demonstrate Ukrainian drone effectiveness. "Wolves of Da Vinci" video further showcases effective drone work. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO's FPV drone compilation shows tactical effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). New: OTU "Kharkiv" showcasing FPV drone strike in Belgorod provides further evidence of tactical effectiveness and reach. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Showcasing Ukrainian Deep Strike Capabilities: Confirmation of strikes on the Cheboksary "VNIIR-Progress" factory (antennas for Shaheds/UMPK) and Savasleyka airbase (MiG-31K base) are critical for demonstrating Ukrainian reach and capability, boosting morale, and leveraging international support. Nikolaev Vanek and Chef Hayabusa also amplify this. The Kazan fire should be exploited as a potential deep strike success if confirmed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Showcasing Ukrainian Force Generation: Photos from 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" about recruit training and Zaporizhzhia police battalion anniversary are positive for morale and demonstrate continued combat readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Transparency of Enemy Losses: General Staff's daily reports on Russian combat losses contribute to public awareness and morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Intelligence Gains: The capture of a ZALA 20 series UAV can be leveraged for intelligence sharing and counter-propaganda. The arrest of a spy in Kyiv region and sentencing of Mykolaiv collaborator is a significant counter-intelligence success, and Operatyvnyi ZSU's photo reinforces it. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Countering Russian Sabotage Claims: Responding to Russian FSB claims of preventing Mi-8/Mi-17 parts contraband by reframing it as a legitimate effort to source spare parts for defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Humanitarian Focus: The Koordynatsijny Shtab's posts about Ukrainian children in Uzbekistan highlight humanitarian efforts, countering Russian narratives of a failing state. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Highlighting Russian Internal Issues: Operatyvnyi ZSU's post about the Yenisei fuel spill leverages this internal Russian environmental/logistic incident for IO purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). New: RBK-Ukraine highlighting Trump/Musk dispute can be used to show Western internal divisions, aligning with Russian IO tactics but from a Ukrainian perspective. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Negative Impact (UKR - SIGNIFICANTLY Escalated): The immediate threat of a major strategic missile attack from an unprecedented number of platforms, including hypersonic, ballistic, and cruise missiles in successive waves, with a new Kinzhal launch, confirmed impacts in Kyiv, Rivne (Dubno) (with civilian casualty), Sumy, Poltava (power line damage), Chernihiv, Ternopil, Cherkasy (UAV debris damage), Kharkiv (strikes on 9 settlements), Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia (with civilian casualty and 7 damaged houses, and new serious civilian casualty reported, further visual confirmation of damage from KABs on residential areas and injured civilians) and KABs confirmed on Donetsk Oblast, continued drone/KAB strikes, and the aggressively amplified Dnipropetrovsk disinformation campaign (now with high-level political backing, new insidious social disinformation, direct threats/mockery, and new video claims of "breakthrough") will significantly heighten anxiety and psychological stress. The overt Russian pre-strike propaganda and dehumanizing rhetoric ("finish off the survivors," "when will refrigerators carry them?") will amplify this. The "debt collector" narrative specifically targets internal cohesion and trust. Claims of Abrams losses and videos of captured Ukrainian POWs will undermine confidence. The specific Russian counter-IO to dismiss air raid warnings as "imaginary" or "EW game" or "nothing is happening in Odesa" could lead to dangerous complacency if not effectively countered, directly endangering civilian lives and undermining trust in official warnings. Exaggerated claims of Ukrainian losses (personnel, Starlinks, UAVs, including 49 UAVs) aim to demoralize. The new narrative about Ukrainians turning to drug trafficking with drones adds a new layer of discreditation and moral pressure. The 20 incoming aerial targets that were not neutralized from a recent wave will also raise concern. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). New: Alex Parker Returns' dehumanizing propaganda and fabricated images designed to mock Ukrainian identity are a new level of psychological attack on morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Positive Impact (UKR): Timely warnings and effective AD responses (e.g., ballistic missile interception, Shahed shootdowns, large number of targets destroyed in Rivne, 6 UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk, 33 UAVs over Cherkasy, "all clear" for UAVs and ballistic threats, 479/499 targets neutralized), where successful, help to maintain a sense of resilience and trust. Confirmed Ukrainian deep strikes into Russia (e.g., Cheboksary with specific attribution and video, confirmed production suspension at a military-industrial facility, Voronezh gas pipeline damage, Nizhny Novgorod/Voronezh airbases, Tambov, and now confirmed Savasleyka airbase drone attack, and Chuvashia military factory) provide a morale boost and demonstrate Ukraine's retaliatory capabilities. The successful deterrence of Kalibr carriers in Black/Azov Seas is a positive for public sentiment. The captured Russian POW testimony and "Wolves of Da Vinci" video provides valuable evidence of Russian military failures and mistreatment of their own soldiers, which can be leveraged for morale-boosting and counter-propaganda efforts. Poland's active response with fighter jet scrambles and AD activation provides a strong signal of NATO readiness and support. General Staff's detailed morning report highlights successful defensive actions, reinforcing morale. BUTUSOV PLUS video showing effective drone work and a Russian surrender is a significant morale booster. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Ongoing training for 47th Brigade and Zaporizhzhia police battalion shows sustained readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The capture of a ZALA 20 series UAV is a tangible success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The arrest of a spy in Kyiv region and sentencing of Mykolaiv collaborator demonstrates internal security effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO's FPV drone compilation (with fundraising call) will contribute to unit morale and public support for drone efforts. Zaporizhzhia OVA's public assistance messages show a coordinated civilian response, which can foster unity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). OTU "Kharkiv"'s FPV strike in Belgorod demonstrates continued offensive capabilities and boosts morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Impact (RU): Russian propaganda aims to bolster domestic morale by justifying their actions, claiming battlefield successes (Dnipropetrovsk, Poddubny, Komar, Orikhove, Zarya, "Rubicon" air superiority, destruction of BMP-2 and mortar positions, USV in Black Sea), highlighting perceived Western division (Los Angeles riots), and demonstrating perceived overwhelming force. News of internal drone attacks and fires (e.g., Cheboksary, confirmed production suspension, Voronezh gas pipeline damage, Nizhny Novgorod/Voronezh airbases, Tambov, Savasleyka airbase, Chuvashia military factory, Kazan fire/explosion, Yenisei fuel spill) and high-profile arrests (Krasnoyarsk mayor, Michael Naki, Zemfira tax debt) may cause some internal concern, which Russian state media attempts to offset with distraction propaganda (Greta Thunberg, economic data, internal crime reports, Okinawa airbase incident, Los Angeles protests, International Friends Day) and now counter-IO on cyberattacks and by tightening internal security measures, and claiming high Ukrainian UAV losses (49 UAVs), and claims of thwarting Ukrainian military supply (Mi-8/Mi-17 parts). Reports of rising food and shawarma prices could negatively impact public sentiment. Kotsnews's direct complaint about weekly factory strikes suggests morale impact within military-industrial circles. The acknowledgement of disease outbreaks and the satirical T-shirt could reflect underlying societal anxieties. Mobilizatsiya News reporting on a soldier AWOL/shooting and ASTRA reporting murder of a Mariupol air commander could impact morale within the military or lead to internal criticism/concern. FSB reports of preventing Moscow OPH sabotage might be used to foster internal fear and rally support for security services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). WarGonzo's training video aims to boost morale by showcasing military effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• The severity and scale of the incoming missile strike (MiG-31K (new launch), multiple, successive ballistic/cruise launches, 9 strategic bombers active, confirmed impacts across multiple oblasts, now explicitly extending to Western and Southern Ukraine) may galvanize further international support or increase pressure on Western partners to expedite aid, particularly AD munitions, beyond previous commitments. This level of attack is a clear demonstration of Russian intent to escalate and disregard for civilian casualties. Poland's direct response (fighter jet scramble, AD activation) is a tangible signal of NATO's concern and readiness, which could put further diplomatic pressure on Russia and reinforce international solidarity with Ukraine. Mark Rutte's call for 400% increase in NATO AD also signals international concern. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian attempts to sow discord by citing "Western" sources or manipulate narratives (e.g., POW bodies in Italy, "Senator-Trumpist" quotes, "debt collectors," Trump/Rubio stumbling, Greta Thunberg, internal arrests, Michael Naki fine, economic data, NATO reduction calls, Ryabkov's statements on US relations/arms control, Okinawa airbase incident, Los Angeles protests, and now "Ukrainians turning to drug trafficking," "war is profit for West") indicates an intent to erode international solidarity and influence Western political landscapes. New TASS reports on entry restrictions for Ukrainians and the proposed law against "insulting Russia" will likely be perceived negatively by international human rights groups. The Politico report on EU sanctions vote on June 20 indicates continued international pressure on Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reporting on State Duma committee approving criminal liability for "droppers" could be used to project Russia's legal system as strong and effective, contrasting with perceived Western 'chaos' (e.g., LA protests). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). New: RBK-Ukraine highlighting Trump/Musk dispute is a relevant diplomatic development, even if the content is primarily celebrity news, it can be framed as Western internal strife. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• MLCOA 1: IMMEDIATE, MAX-SCALE, AND DIVERSIFIED STRATEGIC MISSILE ATTACK FEATURING HYPERSONIC, BALLISTIC, AND CRUISE MISSILES IN SUSTAINED WAVES, TARGETING CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND URBAN CENTERS (INCLUDING OPERATIONAL AIRFIELDS), WITH A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD AND SOUTHERN SHIFT, COORDINATED WITH GROUND PRESSURE AND EXPLICIT DECEPTION OPERATIONS (ONGOING), NOW WITH ACTIVE ANTI-WARNING INFORMATION WARFARE AND EXAGGERATED CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN ATTRITION, AND NEW DEEP STRIKE PROPAGANDA, AND INCITEMENT TO WAR CRIMES. Russia is currently executing a large-scale strategic missile assault, leveraging MiG-31K (Kinzhal - new launch confirmed), multiple, successive waves of ground-launched ballistic missiles (Iskanders) from Bryansk and Kursk (targeting Kyiv/Chernihiv, and now confirmed Zhytomyr and Rivne/Dubno), cruise missiles from Bryansk/Kursk (now over Chernihiv, moving to Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Rivne, and Dubno, and a new threat to Odesa), and 5 Tu-95MS bombers from Olenya (launched Kh-101/555) and 4 Tu-22M3 bombers from Engels-2 (launched Kh-22s towards coastal areas). This follows initial saturation with Shaheds (confirmed impacts in Rivne, Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv) and active Kh-31P SEAD attempts. This attack is targeting Kyiv (confirmed damage in Darnytskyi, now facing multiple waves, with a renewed ballistic alarm, now lifted), Kharkiv ("cast iron supply"), Poltava (power line damage from UAV debris), Chernihiv (explosions confirmed), Rivne (explosions confirmed, Dubno under Shahed attack and direct missile threat, "very difficult night" confirmed by OVA, new explosions confirmed, infrastructure damage confirmed, НгП раZVедка claims "several hundred strikes" on Dubno airfield, and up to 5 MiG-29s destroyed), Dnipro, Odesa (new cruise missile threat), Zhytomyr (now confirmed missile direction), Kremenchuk/Svetlovodsk, Zaporizhzhia (new air raid alert, confirmed casualty, new civilian casualty and damage reports, further visual confirmation of damage from KABs on residential areas), Ternopil, Cherkasy (UAV debris damage), and other major urban centers/infrastructure, with high probability of prioritizing energy and water infrastructure, military-industrial targets, and potentially coastal/port infrastructure. Colonel Ihnat confirms the main target was an operational airfield. Confirmed aviation weapon threat for Synelnykove district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Concurrently, KAB strikes on Kharkiv will continue to support ground advances or create urban destruction, as evidenced by TASS footage and Voin DV video on Malynivka by 35th CAA. KABs confirmed on Donetsk Oblast. On the ground, attritional assaults on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk) and other fronts (Kursk, Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretskyi, Kramatorsk, Gulyaypolsky, Orikhiv, Siversk) will persist, with increased activity in the Southern direction (Silly Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy) and claims of mass troop transfer to Sumy Oblast (Operatsiya Z). The information campaign will aggressively amplify the fabricated "Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough," now using the false credibility of (fabricated) Western media citations and direct political backing from high-level Russian officials, and a new claim of "blocking" AFU near Poddubny village and AFU blowing up a bridge near Komar, and "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny," supported by new video claims of "breakthrough" into Dnipropetrovsk (Colonelcassad, Kotenok, Dnevnik Desantnika), and TASS quoting military expert Marochko on "cutting off" AFU groupings, and Voin DV's mapping of "DPR" and "Dnipropetrovsk Oblast" as bordering. Concurrently, Russia will continue tactical deception (e.g., "Chernihiv not needed," new queries on Volyn, mocking Rivne and threatening its "final solution," questioning Dubno's status, "nothing happening in Odesa," false claims of drone suppression) and overt mockery to compel Ukrainian redeployments and induce panic across the civilian population and military. A new, dangerous element will be the active dissemination of disinformation to undermine Ukrainian air raid warnings, claiming that missiles are "imaginary" or that warnings are an "EW game." New propaganda efforts will specifically target Western support by portraying Zelensky as a "dictator" luring NATO into war, and will spread new, damaging social disinformation (e.g., "Ukrainians turning to drug trafficking with drones," "war is profit for West") while attempting to distract with irrelevant Western political news (Greta Thunberg, Trump/Rubio, internal arrests, Michael Naki fine, Los Angeles protests, economic data, NATO reduction calls, Ryabkov's statements on US relations, Okinawa airbase incident) amplified with fabricated content (e.g., Trump tweet on Los Angeles riots, police brutality claims, TASS reporting 56 arrests in LA protests). The new dehumanizing rhetoric and direct threats to specific cities (Rivne mockery, Volyn query, questioning Dubno's status) and incitement to war crimes ("finish off the survivors," "when will refrigerators carry them?") will intensify, including new fabricated images like "Slava Rossii" scars. Russia will also actively attempt to control the cyber narrative and amplify claims of Ukrainian equipment losses (Abrams) and showcase captured Ukrainian POWs, as well as significantly exaggerated claims of Ukrainian personnel, Starlink, and their own UAV losses (e.g., 49 UAVs shot down claimed by Kotenok, 40 by Voin DV). Russian forces will continue to use and promote new drone capabilities for cargo and bombing (S-80) and precision strikes (fiber optic drones with thermal cameras). Ground tactics will continue to include human wave assaults with disregard for personnel, as evidenced by POW testimony and "Wolves of Da Vinci" video. Putin's approval of the new Naval strategy will be used for long-term power projection messaging. Russia will attempt to control internal economic narratives (rising prices). Children's dioramas promoting military-civilian interaction will continue as soft propaganda. Russia will implement new internal security measures, such as tightening control over messaging apps, and continue to recruit FPV-Air Defense operators. Russia will claim success in cross-border shelling (Rylsk), now with confirmed civilian casualties. Russia will also leverage internal security incidents (Moscow OPH sabotage, soldier AWOL/shooting, murder of Mariupol air commander, Krasnoyarsk Mayor bribery) for domestic messaging, either as a sign of their effectiveness in internal security or to control narratives around military discipline. Dva Mayora's unverified claims of Black Sea strikes (Tu-22M3/Kh-22/32 on gas platforms/Snake Island) indicate a future IO/COA, even if the date is a placeholder. Colonelcassad's video of a USV being struck by a loitering munition confirms continued Russian efforts to counter naval drones in the Black Sea.
  • Confidence: HIGH (Confirmed ongoing ballistic/cruise missile launches in successive waves, ongoing Kinzhal threat with new launch, confirmed strategic bomber activity, with increased numbers (total 9), ongoing Shahed/KAB activity and documented tactical successes, confirmed direct impacts across a widening AOR, escalating, explicit Russian IO directly supported by high-level political figures, the introduction of new, highly specific social disinformation, direct threats, and distraction tactics, and a new wave of aerial assets indicated, along with specific counter-IO against Ukrainian warnings and claims of high Ukrainian losses. This is the most intense observed air attack threat in many months, now actively unfolding in sustained waves, with clear westward and now southern expansion of strike targeting. New POW testimony and "Wolves of Da Vinci" video corroborate critical tactical details. General Staff reports confirm continued ground pressure on multiple axes. WarGonzo updates confirm continued claims of ground advances. ASTRA claim regarding Okinawa and Los Angeles riots are consistent with distraction tactics, now amplified with fabricated content. New video claims of "breakthrough" and new propaganda narratives reinforce this MLCOA. The confirmed Ukrainian deep strikes on Cheboksary and Savasleyka will likely only reinforce this retaliatory MLCOA. Kotenok's claim of 49 UAVs shot down is consistent with this. renewed Kyiv ballistic alarm, now lifted, is a direct confirmation of MLCOA continuation. Confirmed hardened shelters at Khalino and FPV-Air Defense recruitment confirm Russian adaptations. New claims of troop transfer to Sumy and "spy" interrogation are consistent with IO objectives. Aviation weapon threat to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reinforces this. New video confirmations of Dnipropetrovsk claims (Kotenok, Dnevnik Desantnika) and TASS expert commentary reinforce this. Colonel Ihnat's statement on airfield targeting is consistent. New reports of Russian internal security incidents (Moscow OPH, soldier AWOL, Krasnoyarsk Mayor bribery) indicate these will be part of the domestic narrative. RSZO strike on Rylsk confirms continued border region activity. Dva Mayora's Black Sea claims are consistent with future IO. New images confirming civilian damage in Zaporizhzhia and the FPV strike in Belgorod confirm aspects of this MLCOA. Alex Parker Returns' dehumanizing propaganda is consistent. Fighterbomber's denial of aircraft losses aligns with their counter-IO. Colonelcassad's USV strike video shows continued naval drone countermeasures. )
  • Indicators: Widespread and prolonged air alarms, particularly in Western and Southern Ukraine, including renewed alarms in Kyiv (though currently lifted); multiple missile launches reported from various platforms (air, ground); severe impacts in Ukrainian cities across multiple oblasts, particularly on infrastructure; Colonel Ihnat confirming main target was an operational airfield; further Russian milblogger reports on "advances" or "awards" in Dnipropetrovsk, specifically claims of "blocking" AFU near Poddubny or AFU blowing up a bridge near Komar, or "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny," and new video claims of "breakthrough" and Voin DV map showing "DPR" and "Dnipropetrovsk Oblast" as bordering, and Dnevnik Desantnika's explicit confirmation; continued claims of POW captures or Russian "successes" on the ground (e.g., specific BDA on claimed military targets in Kharkiv, destruction of BMP-2 or mortar positions, destruction of Ukrainian USV); increased social media rumors and panic related to new disinformation narratives; Russian milblogger posts explicitly dismissing Ukrainian air raid warnings as false or an "EW game," and denying missile threats to specific cities; persistent claims of high Ukrainian losses (personnel, Starlinks, UAVs, including 49 UAVs shot down claim); explicit calls to violence/war crimes ("finish off the survivors," "when will refrigerators carry them?", fabricated "Slava Rossii" scars). Continued use of "Storm" units in ground assaults. Polish aviation scrambling. Active reconnaissance UAVs (e.g., Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia). Confirmed new industrial/military incidents in Russia (e.g., Kazan fire, Yenisei fuel spill, Moscow OPH sabotage). Russian MoD releasing videos of tank operations. Confirmation of hardened aircraft shelter construction. Recruitment for FPV-Air Defense. Claims of mass troop transfers to Sumy. Interrogation videos of "spies." Continued cross-border RSZO strikes (Rylsk, with civilian casualty). Reports of Russian internal security incidents (soldier AWOL, Krasnoyarsk Mayor bribery).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• MDCOA 1: STRATEGIC DECAPITATION AND OPERATIONAL BREAKTHROUGH ENABLED BY EW OVERMATCH AND REAL-TIME IO. Russia conducts an unprecedented, multi-day, multi-wave strategic missile and drone assault from all available long-range aviation platforms (Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3, Tu-160) and ground-launched ballistic/cruise missiles, including sustained use of "Kinzhal" and other hypersonic/ballistic assets, designed to systematically target and degrade Ukrainian C2 nodes (military and government), critical energy infrastructure, and key logistics hubs, aiming for functional decapitation or severe disruption. This mass strike would be coordinated with a surprise, rapid, and large-scale ground offensive on the Dnipropetrovsk axis, leveraging a significant operational-level force (e.g., multiple divisions, including the 90th Tank Division) from a previously static or lower-priority sector. This ground push would be supported by intense, broad-spectrum electronic warfare (EW) to blind Ukrainian ISR, disrupt military communications at all levels, and jam civilian networks, combined with a real-time, devastating psychological operations campaign (e.g., "Kyiv has fallen," "command has fled," "missiles are imaginary," "total Ukrainian losses") to induce mass civilian panic and military collapse, attempting to force a major, uncoordinated Ukrainian retreat.
  • Confidence: MEDIUM (The current escalating IO around Dnipropetrovsk and the confirmed strategic bomber activity now including Kinzhal and multiple ballistic/cruise waves, with westward/southern expansion directly feed into elements of this MDCOA. The addition of these advanced missile types and the increased number of bombers overall significantly increases the destructive potential. The active Russian counter-IO to undermine AD warnings further increases the danger. The confirmed Ukrainian deep strike on the Cheboksary "VNIIR-Progress" factory, which produces antenna for EW-resistant drone components, could impact Russia's ability to fully execute the EW overmatch component of this MDCOA in the short term, but also indicates their efforts in this domain. The uncertainty remains in Russia's true capability for such a massive, integrated ground force breakthrough, particularly under a broad EW umbrella, and their willingness to commit such resources after AD suppression, and their ability to maintain such an intense air campaign for multiple days.) The new specific claim of "blocking" AFU near Poddubny and the Komar bridge claim, and "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny," and new video claims of "breakthrough," directly push the Dnipropetrovsk ground threat. The FPV-Air Defense recruitment indicates Russian focus on drone warfare and counter-UAV measures, which are relevant to EW capabilities. The aviation weapon threat to Synelnykove district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reinforces the potential for a combined air/ground push. Kotenok's video and TASS expert commentary re-emphasize the Dnipropetrovsk ground threat. Colonel Ihnat's statement confirms airfield targeting, indicating a desire to degrade Ukrainian air capabilities. Dnevnik Desantnika's explicit confirmation of Russian entry into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast increases the likelihood of a concentrated ground effort.
  • Indicators: Sustained multi-day, high-intensity missile/drone attacks; direct targeting of top-tier Ukrainian C2 nodes; simultaneous, rapid, deep penetrations by multiple Russian BTGs/regiments/brigades into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast; widespread and persistent communications outages affecting Ukrainian military and civilian networks; explicit Russian demands for surrender/negotiation from a position of perceived strength; mass internal displacement within Ukraine.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Next 0-3 Hours (IMMEDIATE - CRITICAL IMPACT WINDOW / IMMEDIATE AFTERMATH):

  • Strategic Missile Strikes: Impact of missiles launched by MiG-31K (Kinzhal - new launch), multiple, successive waves of ballistic/cruise missiles from Bryansk and Kursk (now confirmed heading for Zhytomyr, Rivne, and Dubno, and Sumy westbound), and previous launches by 5 Tu-95MS bombers from Olenya and 4 Tu-22M3 bombers from Engels-2 is IMMINENT/ONGOING for some areas, or in immediate aftermath for others. A new cruise missile threat to Odesa is active. A renewed ballistic threat was active for Kyiv and several oblasts, but has now been lifted. Targeting will likely include Kyiv (confirmed damage in Darnytskyi, now facing multiple waves, with a renewed ballistic alarm, now lifted), Kharkiv, Poltava (confirmed power line damage), Chernihiv (explosions), Rivne (explosions, Dubno under Shahed attack and direct missile threat, "very difficult night" confirmed, new explosions confirmed, infrastructure damage confirmed, НгП раZVедка claims "several hundred strikes" on Dubno airfield, and up to 5 MiG-29s destroyed), Dnipro, Odesa (new threat), Zhytomyr (now confirmed missile direction), Kremenchuk/Svetlovodsk, Zaporizhzhia (air raid stood down, confirmed casualty, 7 houses damaged, new civilian casualty reported, further visual confirmation of damage from KABs on residential areas and injured civilians, active recon UAV threat, and confirmed KAB damage), Ternopil, Cherkasy (UAV debris damage), and other major urban centers/critical infrastructure. Colonel Ihnat confirms the main target was an operational airfield. Confirmed aviation weapon threat for Synelnykove district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Specific focus on energy infrastructure and coastal/port targets is highly probable, with active SEAD against coastal AD.
  • Shahed/KAB Threat: Continuation of intense Shahed activity (though Air Force reports "all clear" for current wave for 479/499 targets), with persistent KAB strikes on Kharkiv and other ground targets (e.g., Malynivka). Impacts in Rivne, Sumy, and Poltava, Chernihiv confirm the active threat. Cherkasy OVA reports 33 UAVs shot down. Russia will continue to attempt to deceive regarding the end of drone waves. Reconnaissance UAV activity over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Zaporizhzhia suburbs. "Azov" PPO will continue active defense against UAVs. KABs confirmed on Donetsk Oblast. STERNENKO's FPV drone compilation shows continued offensive FPV activity. OTU "Kharkiv" will conduct further FPV strikes against Russian rear assets.
  • Information Environment: Expect rapid acceleration of Russian propaganda (Dnipropetrovsk narrative now citing "The Times" and high-level political figures, new claim of "blocking" AFU near Poddubny or AFU blowing up a bridge near Komar, or "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny," and new video claims of "breakthrough" into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Colonelcassad, Kotenok, Dnevnik Desantnika), and Voin DV's mapped claims, and TASS expert commentary on "cutting off" AFU groupings; "ammo supply" mockery, tactical deception like "Rivne not needed," "Chernihiv not needed," "drones ending soon," new dehumanizing rhetoric ("when will refrigerators carry them?", fabricated "Slava Rossii" scars), Trump/Rubio/Greta Thunberg/economic data/NATO calls/Okinawa airbase incident/Los Angeles protests distraction amplified with fabricated content, internal arrests, Michael Naki fine, direct threats to cities, mocking references to Ukrainian AD, and explicitly denying missile threats as "imaginary" or "EW game," claims about Dubno status, and denying threats to Odesa, and new "Ukrainians turning to drug trafficking" narrative, and "contraband helicopter parts", "war is profit for West" propaganda, internal social issues) concurrent with or immediately following missile impacts, emphasizing the "success" and "retaliation." New anti-Zelensky/anti-NATO propaganda and highly damaging social disinformation will spread. Russia will also actively attempt to control the cyber narrative and amplify claims of Ukrainian equipment losses (Abrams) and showcase captured Ukrainian POWs, alongside exaggerated claims of personnel, Starlink, and their own UAV losses (e.g., 49 UAVs shot down claimed by Kotenok, 40 by Voin DV). TASS will continue to disseminate BDA of destroyed vehicles. ASTRA will continue with distraction claims (Okinawa, Los Angeles, now with confirmed arrest numbers). Russia will also attempt to mitigate the impact of Ukrainian deep strikes on Cheboksary and Savasleyka through propaganda or denial. Dva Mayora's Black Sea claims (Tu-22M3/Kh-22/32) will be part of the IO. Russian internal security events (Moscow OPH sabotage, soldier AWOL/shooting, murder of Mariupol air commander, Krasnoyarsk Mayor bribery) will be spun for domestic consumption. TASS reporting on "droppers" legislation will be presented as part of Russia's commitment to law and order. WarGonzo's training video will be widely disseminated to project military strength.
  • Ground Activity: Continued attritional assaults on Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk) and other active fronts (Kursk, Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretskyi, Kramatorsk, Gulyaypolsky, Orikhiv, Siversk), supported by KABs and drone strikes. Increased activity in the Southern direction. High potential for a test or reconnaissance-in-force on the Dnipropetrovsk axis to gauge Ukrainian response to the escalating IO and new ground claims, even if a full breakthrough is not imminent. "Wolves of Da Vinci" video indicates continued intense ground fighting and Russian human wave tactics. Basurin's morning report will provide further clarity. MoD Russia releases T-90M video showcasing operations. Claims of mass Russian troop transfers to Sumy Oblast. DeepState map updated, indicating potential ground changes. TASS/MoD Russia videos show claimed BDA of Ukrainian BMP-2, mortar positions, and shelters. Colonelcassad reports RSZO strike on Rylsk, now with reported civilian casualty. Voin DV video shows ongoing drone-guided artillery strikes on Ukrainian positions.
  • Decision Points (UKR):
    • IMMEDIATE (ongoing): All AD assets to maximum readiness and dispersal protocols for incoming strategic missile strike from multiple platforms (Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3, MiG-31K (new launch), ballistic missile launchers, cruise missile launchers from Bryansk/Kursk), especially for newly targeted Western Oblasts (Zhytomyr, Rivne, Dubno) and Southern Oblast (Odesa), and Zaporizhzhia (due to recon UAV), and Sumy, and the renewed ballistic threat to Kyiv, and aviation weapon threat to Synelnykove district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Prioritize protection of operational airfields (per Colonel Ihnat's statement). Prioritize protection of C2 nodes, critical energy infrastructure, and major urban centers, with specific attention to SEAD attempts against AD systems. This is the most critical immediate task, requiring focus on the highest-speed threats and multi-wave engagements across a widening area, now including Zhytomyr Oblast, further West, Sumy (westbound), and Odesa.
    • IMMEDIATE: Rapid and aggressive counter-IO on the "Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough" narrative, particularly the fabricated "The Times" citations and the high-level political statements, the new claim of "blocking" AFU near Poddubny, the Komar bridge claim, "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny," and the new video claims of "breakthrough" (Colonelcassad, Kotenok, Dnevnik Desantnika) and Voin DV's mapped claims, as well as the "ammo supply" claims, the "drones ending soon" deception, the new "debt collector" narrative, the dehumanizing rhetoric, and direct threats/mockery (Rivne/Volyn/Dubno/Odesa, "when will refrigerators carry them?"). Issue official statements debunking false claims and providing accurate information. URGENTLY counter Russian narratives dismissing missile threats as "imaginary" or "EW game" or "nothing is happening in Odesa"; emphasize the real and immediate danger and the necessity of adhering to warnings. Task ISR for immediate verification or denial of Russian force presence in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast beyond the current line of contact. Prepare contingency plans for a potential actual ground push on this axis, even if small-scale.
    • URGENT: Disseminate counter-PSYOPS messages to address the disinformation regarding POW bodies, captured Ukrainian POW videos, and other psychological intimidation tactics, and critically, the overt Russian propaganda regarding the incoming strike, tactical deception, anti-Zelensky/anti-NATO narratives, the new social disinformation aimed at internal divisions (e.g., "Ukrainians turning to drug trafficking"), and the new distraction propaganda (including Greta Thunberg/Israel narrative, economic data, NATO calls, Okinawa airbase incident, Los Angeles protests, fabricated Trump tweets, police brutality claims, and "contraband helicopter parts", "war is profit for West"). Specifically address the exaggerated claims of Ukrainian personnel, Starlink, and UAV losses (including 49 UAVs shot down claim). Leverage captured Russian POW testimony (Andrey Gorbatenko) and "Wolves of Da Vinci" video to expose Russian military brutality and undermine their domestic morale, including orders to kill wounded and forced participation in "Storm" battalions, and the new "finish off the survivors" rhetoric, and the fabricated "Slava Rossii" scar images. Reinforce national resilience and preparedness. Utilize humanitarian posts (e.g., children in Uzbekistan, Zaporizhzhia civilian assistance reports) to showcase Ukrainian resilience and care. Exploit the Kazan powder plant fire as a potential deep strike success if confirmed. Leverage Russian internal issues (Yenisei fuel spill, soldier AWOL/shooting, murder of Mariupol air commander, Krasnoyarsk Mayor bribery) for IO.
    • URGENT: Reinforce communication channels and protocols to ensure resilience against potential EW or network saturation during mass attacks.
    • URGENT: Prioritize SIGINT/ELINT on Russian strategic aviation and EW systems to detect further missile launches or shifts in attack vectors. Maintain high vigilance on ground axes for any signs of massing reserves consistent with MDCOA, particularly on the Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy axes.
    • IMMEDIATE: Conduct detailed analysis of the captured ZALA 20 series UAV to identify vulnerabilities, components, and potential countermeasures.
    • IMMEDIATE: Conduct BDA on the Kazan powder plant fire to confirm the nature of the facility and the extent of damage.
    • IMMEDIATE: Conduct BDA on the Rylsk RSZO strike to confirm the civilian casualty and scale of damage.

• Next 3-24 Hours (Short Term):

  • Post-Strike Assessment: Evaluate damage, casualties, and impact on critical infrastructure from the strategic missile strike, particularly in Western and Southern Ukraine.
  • Russian Reaction: Monitor for immediate Russian claims of "successful strikes" or "retaliation" across multiple channels. Expect further political statements reinforcing the "denazification" narrative and other IO. Expect continued counter-IO efforts to undermine Ukrainian warnings and successes, including further exaggerated claims of Ukrainian losses and new ground claims (Poddubny, Komar, new video). Expect Russian attempts to downplay the impact of Ukrainian deep strikes on Cheboksary and Savasleyka, and now potentially Kazan.
  • Ukrainian Recovery/Response: Initiate rapid recovery efforts. Continue active defense on all ground axes as reported by General Staff, and in the South.

• Next 24-72 Hours (Medium Term):

  • Sustained Pressure: Russia will likely sustain aerial pressure (Shaheds, KABs) to hinder recovery efforts and maintain psychological pressure, potentially in further waves if initial effects are deemed insufficient.
  • Ground Offensive: Russian ground offensive on Donetsk and Sumy axis will continue as detailed in General Staff reports. The intensity of any push on Dnipropetrovsk will clarify if the IO was solely a feint or a precursor. Increased pressure in the South.
  • Information Warfare: Continued Russian efforts to exploit any perceived Ukrainian weaknesses or Western divisions, and to undermine trust in official information.

• Intelligence Gaps:

  • Full BDA on Strategic Missile Strike: Precise number, type, and impact locations of all missiles launched by MiG-31K, ballistic launchers, cruise missile launchers, Tu-95MS, and Tu-22M3, and their impact on Ukrainian critical infrastructure (energy, water, military-industrial targets), particularly in Western Ukraine (Zhytomyr, Rivne, Dubno), Southern Ukraine (Odesa), Zaporizhzhia, Ternopil, Cherkasy, and Sumy. Nikolaev Vanok's claim of an "airfield" as the target needs verification. Confirm main target was an operational airfield as per Colonel Ihnat, and verify if MiG-29s were destroyed at Dubno. (HIGHEST PRIORITY)
  • Veracity of Dnipropetrovsk Claim (Poddubny/Komar/New Video/Voin DV map): Definitive GEOINT/IMINT/HUMINT on Russian force composition, disposition, and actual advances (if any) in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, specifically near Poddubny village and Komar village, and the content of the new "breakthrough" video (Kotenok, Colonelcassad, Dnevnik Desantnika) and the Voin DV map. Identification and verification of "Colonel Yevgeny Daraev" and the "tank regiment" (if real or fabricated). (HIGHEST PRIORITY)
  • Ukrainian AD Munition Levels: Updated assessment of critical interceptor munition inventories post-mass missile attack, especially for high-value ballistic/hypersonic interceptors. (HIGH PRIORITY)
  • Impact of Ukrainian Deep Strikes within Russia (Cheboksary, Savasleyka, Kazan): BDA on the Cheboksary factory (VNIIR-Progress), including confirmation of production suspension and assessment of long-term impact on Russian drone/UMPK/missile antenna production. BDA on Savasleyka airbase, including confirmation of damage to MiG-31K aircraft or other assets. BDA on the Kazan Powder Plant fire, including verification of cause (accident vs. attack) and impact on munitions production. (HIGHEST PRIORITY)
  • Okinawa Airbase Incident: Verification of ASTRA's claims regarding an explosion and casualties at Kadena Air Base, Okinawa. (HIGH PRIORITY - for immediate debunking if false, to counter Russian IO).
  • Los Angeles Riots Context and Russian Amplification: Verification of ASTRA/Alex Parker Returns/Operatsiya Z/Operatyvnyi ZSU/TASS claims regarding the scale and nature of the Los Angeles riots, including the Trump tweet and journalist incident. Confirm TASS's claimed 56 arrests. (HIGH PRIORITY - for immediate debunking if false, to counter Russian IO).
  • Russian "49 UAVs" Claim & New Wave Indication: Verify the claimed scale of the Russian AD success (49 UAVs) and the scale/nature of the newly indicated wave of "reparations." (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
  • Impact of Russian Anti-Radiation Missile Strikes: Assessment of damage/suppression to Ukrainian AD radars from Kh-31P launches. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
  • Verification of Abrams Losses: Independent verification of Colonelcassad's claim regarding 26 Abrams tanks destroyed/captured. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
  • Verification of Starlink Destructions: Independent verification of TASS claims regarding 6 Starlink stations destroyed. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
  • Analysis of Russian VDV S-80 Drone Capability and Fiber Optic Drones: Fuller assessment of the S-80 drone's capabilities, numbers, and operational deployment, and the new fiber optic drones for precision targeting. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
  • Forensic Analysis of Captured POW (Gorbatenko): Full medical assessment of Andrey Gorbatenko to corroborate his claims of being deployed while unfit. Deeper interrogation on unit locations, command structure, personnel numbers, equipment, and recent orders, focusing on identities of commanders giving orders to kill wounded. (HIGH PRIORITY).
  • ZALA 20 Series UAV Analysis: Comprehensive technical analysis of the captured ZALA 20 series UAV. (HIGH PRIORITY).
  • Yenisei Fuel Spill: Verification of cause, extent, and environmental impact of the Yenisei fuel spill. (LOW PRIORITY - minor military relevance).
  • Russian Internal Messaging App Restrictions: Assessment of the intent and impact of the new restrictions on messenger authorization with "unauthorized phone numbers." (LOW PRIORITY - internal Russian security).
  • Russian Troop Transfers to Sumy: Verification of Operatsiya Z claims regarding mass troop transfers to Sumy Oblast. (MEDIUM PRIORITY).
  • Effectiveness of Russian "Spy" Interrogation: Verification of the claims made in Mash na Donbasse's video about the captured "spy." (MEDIUM PRIORITY).
  • Russian Internal Crime/Discipline Issues: Verification of reports regarding soldier AWOL/shooting and murder of Mariupol air commander. (MEDIUM PRIORITY).
  • Moscow OPH Sabotage: Verification of FSB claims regarding prevention of sabotage at Moscow OPH enterprise and IEDs, and the alleged Ukrainian agent's role. (MEDIUM PRIORITY).
  • Black Sea Strikes (Tu-22M3/Kh-22/32 and USV Countermeasures): Verification of Dva Mayora's claims of strikes on Black Sea gas platforms and Snake Island, and further details on Russian counter-USV operations. (MEDIUM PRIORITY).
  • Rylsk RSZO Civilian Casualty: Independent verification of civilian casualty in Rylsk district, Kursk Oblast. (HIGH PRIORITY).
  • Veracity of "Slava Rossii" Scar Image: Verification of the authenticity and context of the image posted by Alex Parker Returns. (HIGH PRIORITY - for immediate debunking if fabricated for IO).
  • Impact of Krasnoyarsk Mayor Bribery Charges: Assessment of internal political impact and potential for further anti-corruption efforts within Russia. (LOW PRIORITY).

• Collection Requirements:

  • SIGINT/ELINT: Continuous monitoring of Russian strategic aviation communications and flight paths from all airbases (Engels-2, Olenya, Soltsy, Shaikovka, Boriso-Glebsk, Savasleyka), particularly for launch confirmations from Tu-95MS and MiG-31K. Monitor ballistic and cruise missile launch signatures, especially those shifting towards Western or Southern Ukraine. Identification of EW efforts synchronized with ground or air attacks, especially on Dnipropetrovsk axis and Black Sea coastal areas. Monitoring of Russian C2 networks for signs of operational-level ground movements, particularly for the Poddubny/Komar claims and Sumy troop transfers. Monitoring of Russian drone control frequencies for new drone types (S-80, fiber optic drones). Monitoring of Russian internal security communications related to messenger app restrictions or FPV-Air Defense recruitment. Monitoring of Russian military channels for discussion of internal discipline/crime and the Krasnoyarsk bribery case.
  • GEOINT/IMINT: High-resolution satellite imagery over all claimed Russian advances, particularly Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Poddubny/Komar area, new video claims, Voin DV map claims, Synelnykove district), to detect force concentrations or actual penetration. Rapid assessment of critical infrastructure damage in Ukraine (especially Western and Southern Ukraine) and within Russia (e.g., Cheboksary factory, with confirmation of production suspension, Voronezh gas pipeline, Boriso-Glebsk airbase, Savasleyka airbase, Chuvashia military factory, Kazan powder plant, Khalino Airfield - for hardened shelters construction, Moscow OPH enterprise, Yenisei fuel spill site, Rylsk RSZO strike site) from Ukrainian deep strikes. Imagery of ballistic/cruise missile launch sites in Bryansk/Kursk Oblasts. BDA on the destroyed vehicle shown in TASS video, including precise geolocation. Imagery of Russian VDV drone deployment sites or operational areas. Imagery of Ukrainian airfields mentioned as targets. Imagery/technical analysis of captured ZALA 20 series UAV. Imagery of the Yenisei fuel spill. Imagery of Black Sea gas platforms and Snake Island for strike verification. Imagery of the site of the FPV drone strike in Belgorod.
  • HUMINT: From frontline units for accurate reporting on Russian ground tactics, morale, and any unusual force dispositions. From affected civilian areas for accurate BDA and impact assessment. From occupied areas, if possible, to verify Russian claims and morale and the impact of social disinformation. Critical: From captured Russian POWs, particularly Andrey Gorbatenko, for detailed information on Russian unit structures (163rd Tank Regiment, 150th Motorized Rifle Division, "Storm" battalions), morale, discipline, and specific orders regarding treatment of wounded/POWs, and insight into the "Slava Rossii" scar phenomenon.
  • OSINT: Persistent monitoring of Russian milblogger and state media channels for new narratives, claims, and shifts in propaganda themes, particularly the explicit "mass strike" promotion (multi-wave claims), the Dnipropetrovsk narrative (now with TASS/Klishas amplification and Poddubny/Komar claims, "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny," and new video claims of "breakthrough," and Voin DV map, Dnevnik Desantnika's explicit claim), tactical deception attempts (e.g., "drones ending soon," "Chernihiv not needed," "Rovno getting crooked," "Volyn?", "final solution to Rivne," "Dubno was normal?"), the new social disinformation (e.g., "Ukrainians turning to drug trafficking," "contraband helicopter parts," "war is profit for West"), any new distraction tactics (e.g., Trump/Rubio, Greta Thunberg, Kaspersky cyber claims, Krasnoyarsk arrest, Michael Naki fine, Los Angeles protests, economic data, NATO reduction calls, Ryabkov's statements, Okinawa airbase incident, Yenisei fuel spill, Zemfira tax debt, luxury brands, internal social issues), and especially attempts to undermine Ukrainian air raid warnings by claiming "imaginary missiles" or "EW game," or denying threats to specific cities like Odesa. Monitor exaggerated claims of Ukrainian losses (personnel, Starlinks, UAVs, including 49 UAVs shot down claim). Analysis of public sentiment within Ukraine, particularly regarding the Dnipropetropsk narrative and large-scale strikes, and adherence to air raid warnings. Monitoring of Russian internal news for shifts in focus or new internal security measures, and economic indicators. Monitoring of Russian military forums for discussions on S-80 drone effectiveness or vulnerabilities, and FPV-Air Defense. Monitoring of Russian channels for follow-up on internal crime/discipline issues (soldier AWOL, murder of Mariupol air commander, Krasnoyarsk Mayor bribery). Monitoring of Russian legal/economic news for "droppers" legislation impact. Monitoring of Russian claims regarding Black Sea strikes. Monitor Russian channels for new content on military training and recruitment.

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END REPORT