Situation Report

OPSEC CLASSIFICATION: NATO SECRET // RELEASABLE TO UKR FORCES

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) TIME OF REPORT: 09 JUN 25 / 06:49 ZULU REPORTING PERIOD: 09 JUN 25 / 06:19 ZULU - 09 JUN 25 / 06:49 ZULU PREPARED BY: Senior Military Intelligence Analyst, Eastern European Warfare Desk

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• AOR Update: Kyiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Black Sea, Azov Sea, Sumy Oblast, Russian Federation border regions (Kursk, Bryansk, Belgorod, Tambov, Voronezh, Chuvasia, Nizhny Novgorod, Cheboksary, Moscow Oblast, Okinawa - US Kadena Airbase), and the Donetsk axis remain active. Chernihiv Oblast, Rivne Oblast, Zhytomyr Oblast, and Volyn Oblast are under direct aerial attack. Odesa Oblast and Black Sea region under active missile threat. Continued emphasis on Kremenchuk/Svetlovodsk axis. Kryvyi Rih reports situation controlled. Kharkiv Oblast has sustained strikes on 9 settlements.
• New Developments (UKR):
  • Kyiv Air Alarm "All Clear": Kyiv City Military Administration (KCMVA) reports "all clear" for air raid alert. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR official source).
  • Zaporizhzhia Air Raid "All Clear": Zaporizhzhia Oblast OVA reports "all clear" for air raid alert. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR official source).
  • Rivne Oblast Attacked Again: Rivne Oblast OVA confirms Russia attacked Rivne Oblast again this morning, with Ukrainian Air Defense (PPO) actively engaged. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR official source). This corroborates previous reports of multiple waves and westward trajectory.
  • WPIC Facility Struck in Cheboksary: Ukrainian General Staff, Operatyvnyi ZSU, and RBC-Ukraine confirm strikes on "VNIIR-Progress" JSC / "ABS Electro" LLC in Cheboksary, Chuvashia Republic, Russia. This facility produces antennas for "Kometa" systems used in Shaheds, UMPK modules (FAB glide kits), and missiles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR official sources). This is a highly significant deep strike against Russian military-industrial complex.
  • Savasleyka Airfield Struck: Ukrainian General Staff reports strikes on aircraft at Savasleyka airfield (Nizhny Novgorod Oblast). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR official source). This corroborates previous STERNENKO reports and is a major deep strike against an airbase housing MiG-31K Kinzhal carriers.
  • Azov Air Defense Activity: BUTUSOV PLUS reports "Azov" PPO working on enemy UAVs on the Toretskyi direction, including downing fixed-wing UAVs (likely ZALA series) with UAR-15 and FPV drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR milblogger with combat footage).
  • ZALA 20 Series UAV Captured: STERNENKO reports capturing a rare ZALA 20 series UAV, uncertain if it's a Z or T modification. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR source). This provides critical intelligence on Russian ISR/strike UAVs.
• New Developments (RU):
  • LPR Spy Capture Claim: TASS reports a Ukrainian citizen detained in LPR for allegedly spying and transmitting data on Russian Armed Forces deployment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian state media, LOW confidence in veracity, likely propaganda).
  • International Friends Day Celebration (Moscow): "Novosti Moskvy" posts photo celebrating International Friends Day. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian state media, clear distraction/morale-boosting propaganda).
  • Cheboksary Incident (RU milblogger): "Dva Mayora" posts video of Cheboksary, confirming a drone attack on an industrial facility. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger, corroborates Ukrainian claims).
  • Kyiv "Vzbodrili Zapadenshchinu" Claim (RU milblogger): Kotsnews posts video claiming strikes on Ukraine "Vzbodrili Zapadenshchinu" (cheered up Western Ukraine). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger, clear triumphalist propaganda).
  • Nezhyn Training Base Strike Claim: Dnevnik Desantnika claims a strike on a Ukrainian Armed Forces training base in Nezhyn. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger, unverified claim).
  • Los Angeles Riots Amplification (RU milbloggers): Operatsiya Z / Voenkor Russkoy Vesny and Alex Parker Returns continue to amplify videos and narratives of "mass riots" in Los Angeles, including "Kremlin agents spotted," "police using rubber bullets on journalists," and attributing a "Bring in the Troops" tweet to Donald Trump. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milbloggers, HIGH confidence in it being distraction propaganda).
  • Fuel Truck Driver Propaganda: Colonelcassad posts video showcasing a Russian fuel truck driver, emphasizing resilience and quick repairs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger, morale-boosting propaganda).
  • Dubno Airbase Destruction Claim: WarGonzo claims Russian Armed Forces destroyed an airbase in Dubno. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger, unverified claim, but consistent with missile strikes on Rivne Oblast).
  • Russian Economic Hardship (RU media): "Sever.Realia" reports on rising food prices (potatoes, cabbage) in Russia. "Novosti Moskvy" reports on record high shawarma prices. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian media, indicates domestic economic strain).
  • EU Sanctions Politico Report (RU media): TASS reports Politico's claim that EU may vote on new sanctions on June 20 if US coordinates. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian state media, likely framing for domestic audience/international perception).
  • Mi-8/Mi-17 Parts Contraband Claim: TASS reports FSB prevented contraband export of Mi-8/Mi-17 helicopter components to Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian state media, likely propaganda to claim disruption of Ukrainian military supply).
  • "Finish off the survivors" Propaganda: Alex Parker Returns posts photo with caption "Finish off the survivors." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger, explicit dehumanizing and genocidal rhetoric).
  • Savasleyka Airfield Strikes (RU milblogger): Dnevnik Desantnika reports Russian Armed Forces strikes on "enemy objects" including "airfields" (plural) in the night, referring to Savasleyka among others. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger, confirms Ukrainian claims).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations:

• Conducive to All Aerial Operations: Clear weather continues to facilitate widespread aerial assaults. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces (Air Defense): KCMVA reports "all clear" for the air raid alarm in Kyiv. Air Force reports "all clear" for missile danger across oblasts. However, Rivne Oblast OVA confirms renewed morning attacks and PPO engagement. "Azov" PPO is actively engaging UAVs on the Toretskyi direction, indicating continued localized AD effectiveness. The capture of a ZALA 20 series UAV is a significant intelligence gain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian Forces (Ground): Maintaining defensive postures. The General Staff continues to release daily summaries of enemy losses, providing a public accounting of the attrition campaign. "Azov" PPO's engagement of UAVs on Toretskyi highlights active defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian Naval Forces: No new information.
• Russian Forces (Air): Dnevnik Desantnika confirms multi-target strikes including "airfields" (plural). WarGonzo claims destruction of Dubno airbase. Kotsnews continues to promote the "massive combined strike." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Forces (Ground): TASS claims a Ukrainian citizen arrested for spying on Russian military deployment in LPR. This is likely a propaganda effort to portray Ukrainian internal vulnerabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Forces (Information Operations): Russia is intensifying distraction tactics (US riots, internal Russian celebrations), maintaining demoralization efforts (spy arrests, economic reports), and continuing to amplify triumphalist narratives ("vzbodrili zapadenshchinu," "destroy Dubno airbase," "finish off survivors"). The new claims of preventing Mi-8/Mi-17 parts contraband adds to the narrative of thwarting Ukrainian military efforts. The ongoing Los Angeles riot narrative is heavily amplified, including false quotes attributed to Trump. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Capabilities:
  • Sustained Full-Spectrum Strategic Air Strike Capability (Confirmed & Active at Maximum Scale, Expanding Western/Southern Targets, Renewed Kinzhal Threat): Russia is demonstrating its capability to conduct a sustained, massive, multi-platform, multi-axis strategic missile attack utilizing hypersonic "Kinzhal" missiles from MiG-31K (new launch confirmed), multiple, successive waves of ballistic missiles (likely Iskanders) from ground launchers in Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts, strategic cruise missiles (Kh-101/555) from Tu-95MS (previous wave) and now fresh cruise missiles from Bryansk/Kursk direction, and heavy anti-ship missiles (Kh-22) from Tu-22M3 (previous wave)**. The focus on "second, third, fourth waves" on Kyiv highlights a clear intent to sustain overwhelming pressure. The expansion of missile paths towards Zhytomyr and Rivne (Dubno), and now a new cruise missile threat to Odesa, confirms their intent and capability to strike deeper into Western and Southern Ukraine. Confirmed impacts across 8+ Ukrainian oblasts demonstrate this capability. WarGonzo claims destruction of Dubno airbase, Dnevnik Desantnika confirms airbase strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Ground Offensive Capabilities (Confirmed & Persistent, Increasing Pressure in South): General Staff reports confirm Russian forces are actively conducting offensive operations on multiple axes, including Kursk, Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretskyi, Kramatorsk, Gulyaypolsky, Orikhiv, and Siversk. Silly Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports increased activity in the South with drones, artillery, and NARs. This demonstrates sustained ground combat capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Intentions:
  • Sustained Overwhelming Retaliation and Deterrence (Active Execution at Maximum Scale, Expanding Targets West & South): The ongoing strategic strike, featuring "Kinzhal" (renewed launch) and multiple ballistic/cruise waves, is intended to inflict maximum damage on Ukrainian critical infrastructure and urban centers, serving as severe retaliation for recent deep strikes and to deter further Ukrainian cross-border or deep-rear operations. The successive waves and the shift to Western targets (Zhytomyr, Rivne, Dubno) and now a new cruise missile threat to Odesa, indicate intent to sustain overwhelming pressure and break AD across a wider area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Psychological Demoralization and Panic (Active Execution, Deepening Dehumanization & Threat, Expanding Discredit Campaigns): The explicit propaganda messaging accompanying the missile launches, now including direct threats (Rivne mockery, Volyn query, "final solution to Rivne question," "imaginary missiles" counter-IO, "cast iron supply," "nothing in Odesa"), and the deepening dehumanization ("chubaty al-Qaeda," "model Khokhol", "finish off survivors") is aimed at inducing widespread fear and panic and undermining trust. The attempts to dismiss Ukrainian warnings ("imaginary missiles," "nothing happening in Odesa") are part of this. The renewed focus on the Greta Thunberg/Israel narrative serves as a distraction to redirect attention from the war. Exaggerated claims of Ukrainian losses (230 personnel, 6 Starlinks, 4,800 in LPR, and now 49 UAVs) aim to demoralize. The new claims of a "large grouping of AFU" being "blocked" near Poddubny (previously Komar), Dnipropetrovsk border, and now a bridge blown up near Komar, are direct, aggressive, and likely false, expansions of the Dnipropetrovsk offensive narrative, reinforced by video of claimed breakthrough. The new narrative by Dva Mayora about Ukrainians turning to drug trafficking with drones aims to discredit Ukrainian refugees and the nation as a whole. The amplified Los Angeles riots, including claims of "Kremlin agents" and police brutality against journalists, serve to distract and sow distrust in Western governance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Courses of Action (COA):
  • MLCOA 1 (Confirmed & Actively Executing at Maximum Scale with Hypersonic/Ballistic/Cruise Escalation & WESTWARD/SOUTHERN SHIFT, and Sustained Ground Pressure, Now with Active Anti-Warning Information Warfare and Exaggerated Claims of Ukrainian Attrition, and New Deep Strike Propaganda): Immediate, Massive, Diversified Strategic Missile Attack Targeting Critical Infrastructure and Urban Centers, Coordinated with Ground Pressure and Deepening Deception Operations, now featuring hypersonic, ballistic, and cruise missiles in successive waves, with active counter-IO against Ukrainian warnings, and an expanded geographic scope to include Western Ukrainian targets (Zhytomyr, Rivne, Dubno) and Southern targets (Odesa). Russia is currently launching a mass-scale strategic missile assault, leveraging MiG-31K (Kinzhal - new launch confirmed), multiple, successive waves of ground-launched ballistic missiles (Iskanders) from Bryansk and Kursk (targeting Kyiv/Chernihiv and now confirmed Zhytomyr and Rivne/Dubno), cruise missiles from Bryansk/Kursk, 5 Tu-95MS bombers from Olenya (launched Kh-101/555), AND 4 Tu-22M3 bombers from Engels-2 (launched Kh-22s towards coastal areas). This follows initial saturation with Shaheds and active Kh-31P SEAD attempts. This attack is targeting Kyiv (confirmed damage in Darnytskyi, now facing multiple waves), Kharkiv ("cast iron supply"), Poltava (power line damage), Chernihiv (explosions confirmed), Rivne (explosions confirmed, Dubno under Shahed attack and confirmed missile target, "very difficult night" confirmed by OVA, new explosions confirmed), Dnipro, Odesa (new cruise missile threat), Zhytomyr (missiles now confirmed over Northern Kyiv Oblast and moving to Zhytomyr Oblast, then further West), Kremenchuk, Zaporizhzhia (new air raid alert, confirmed casualty), Ternopil, Cherkasy, and other key urban centers/infrastructure, with high probability of prioritizing energy and water infrastructure, military-industrial targets, and potentially coastal/port infrastructure. Concurrently, KAB strikes on Kharkiv will continue to support ground advances or create urban destruction, as evidenced by TASS video. Voins DV video supports this with a strike on Malynivka. On the ground, attritional assaults on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk direction) and other fronts (Kursk, Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretskyi, Kramatorsk, Gulyaypolsky, Orikhiv, Siversk) will persist. Silly Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports increased activity in the South. Russian IO will intensify their "Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough" narrative, reinforced by high-level political statements, and now including claims of "blocking" AFU near Poddubny and AFU blowing up a bridge near Komar, and "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny," supported by new video claims of "breakthrough" into Dnipropetrovsk. Russia will continue tactical deception (e.g., "Chernihiv not needed," now direct questions about Volyn, mocking Rivne and threatening its "final solution," asking about Dubno, claiming "imaginary missiles," "nothing happening in Odesa") while overtly promoting the scale of the incoming missile strike. Critically, Russia will actively attempt to undermine Ukrainian air raid warnings by claiming "imaginary missiles" or "EW game." Russian propaganda will also actively work to undermine Zelensky's legitimacy, fuel anti-NATO sentiment, spread highly damaging social disinformation (e.g., "Ukrainians turning to drug trafficking with drones"), and attempt to distract with irrelevant Western political news (Greta Thunberg, US politics, internal arrests, Okinawa airbase explosion, Los Angeles riots) amplified with fabricated content (e.g., Trump tweet). The new dehumanizing rhetoric and direct threats will intensify, along with claims of high Ukrainian losses (230 personnel, 6 Starlinks, 4,800 in LPR, and now 49 UAVs), and claims of high Ukrainian UAV losses over Russia. Russia will also attempt to control the cyber narrative and amplify claims of Ukrainian equipment losses (Abrams). Russian forces will continue to use and promote new drone capabilities for cargo and bombing (S-80) and precision strikes (fiber optic drones with thermal cameras).
    • Confidence: HIGH (Confirmed continued ballistic/cruise missile launches in waves, ongoing Kinzhal threat with new launch, confirmed strategic bomber activity, with increased numbers, active Shahed/KAB activity and documented tactical successes, confirmed impacts across a widening AOR, escalating Dnipropetrovsk IO now with high-level political backing and new specific claims and video, new, specific social disinformation, and confirmed new wave of aerial assets indicated, are directly in line with this combined COA, now at maximum observed intensity for air attack, with sustained multi-wave targeting, active counter-IO, and confirmed westward and now southern expansion of strike focus. Claims of high Ukrainian losses are consistent with Russian propaganda patterns. New information confirming the Cheboksary factory produces anti-EW equipment for drones highlights a significant Ukrainian deep strike success and confirms Russia's efforts to protect its UAVs, which will be further weaponized by Russia's IO. New details from captured POW corroborate specific Russian TTPs on the ground, including human wave assaults and poor personnel treatment. General Staff reports confirm continued ground pressure on multiple axes. WarGonzo updates confirm continued claims of ground advances. ASTRA claim regarding Okinawa and Los Angeles riots are consistent with distraction tactics. New video claims of "breakthrough" and new propaganda narratives reinforce this MLCOA).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• Sustained Multi-Wave Ballistic/Cruise Missile Attacks Targeting Western and Southern Ukraine (Renewed Kinzhal): The repeated launches of ballistic and now cruise missiles from Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts in rapid succession, with a confirmed shift in trajectory to Zhytomyr and Rivne (Dubno), and now a new cruise missile threat to Odesa, indicates a tactical adaptation to overwhelm AD across a broader front, including Western and Southern Ukraine. The new MiG-31K takeoff reconfirms the sustained Kinzhal threat in this multi-wave assault. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Counter-IO against Air Warnings: The explicit Russian milblogger attempts to dismiss Ukrainian air raid warnings as "imaginary" or an "EW game," and claiming "nothing is happening in Odesa," represents a new and dangerous tactical adaptation in their information warfare, aiming to reduce public adherence to warnings and thus increase casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• New Ground Deception (Dnipropetrovsk Specificity with Video): The new TASS claim of a portion of AFU being "destroyed" in Poddubny on the DPR border, and WarGonzo's specific claims of Orikhove tactical successes and reaching Dnipropetrovsk border, and now Operatsiya Z's video claiming "breakthrough of Russian assault groups into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast" represent an ongoing and escalating attempt to create false narratives of ground breakthroughs, now leveraging visual "evidence." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• New Distraction Tactics (Los Angeles Riots, etc.): ASTRA's claims regarding an incident at Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, and the ongoing Los Angeles riots represent new attempts at global distraction or to sow discord regarding US internal stability or military presence. This is amplified by other milbloggers like Alex Parker Returns, now including fabricated content (Trump tweet) and claims of police brutality against journalists. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• New Discreditation Narrative (Ukrainian Drug Trafficking): Dva Mayora's propagation of the narrative that Ukrainians will turn to drug trafficking with drones represents a new attempt to discredit Ukrainian society and refugees, particularly targeting Western audiences. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Explicit "Finish off Survivors" Rhetoric: Alex Parker Returns' post "Добейте выживших" (Finish off the survivors) indicates a new level of explicit dehumanization and incitement to war crimes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• Strategic Missile & UAV Supply: The sustained, multi-wave launches from MiG-31K, multiple ballistic missile batteries, and strategic bombers indicates Russia retains significant stockpiles of "Kinzhal," ballistic missiles (Iskander), strategic cruise missiles (Kh-101, Kh-555, Kh-22/32), and UAVs for a prolonged, high-intensity aerial campaign. This suggests a higher inventory than previously assessed for high-value assets like Kinzhal and Iskander, or a willingness to deplete them rapidly. Ukrainian strike on the Cheboksary "VNIIR-Progress" factory, which produces antennas for Shaheds, UMPK modules, and missiles, is a significant blow to their supply chain for these critical components. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Information Warfare Capacity: The rapid generation and dissemination of new, specific disinformation, distraction tactics (including new focus on Greta Thunberg/Israel, Okinawa airbase incident, Los Angeles riots), and direct threats, and the aggressive, pre-emptive psychological operations around the strategic strikes, including efforts to counter Ukrainian AD warnings and discredit Ukrainian society, indicate a highly agile and resourced IO apparatus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Internal Economic Strain: Reports on rising food and shawarma prices in Russia indicate potential domestic economic strain impacting morale, though this is likely offset by propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• Russian C2: The synchronized multi-domain strikes (Shaheds, KABs, strategic cruise missiles from multiple platforms, hypersonic "Kinzhal," multiple, successive waves of ballistic/cruise missiles from multiple ground launchers now targeting a wider geographic area, including Western and Southern Ukraine) and rapid, coordinated IO campaigns demonstrating effective, centralized Russian C2. The immediate amplification of the Dnipropetrovsk narrative by TASS and high-level political figures, and the dissemination of specific social disinformation including video claims, confirms high-level C2 over IO. The coordinated efforts to undermine Ukrainian AD warnings further indicate robust C2 over IO. The immediate reporting of claimed Ukrainian losses by "West" grouping further demonstrates effective C2 and rapid dissemination of information for propaganda purposes. Putin's approval of the new Naval strategy indicates long-term strategic C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian C2: Ukrainian authorities' rapid public warnings and AD responses continue to demonstrate effective C2 for public safety and military readiness, but are severely tested by the anticipated strategic strike of this magnitude, now including sustained hypersonic and ballistic threats across multiple waves and coordinated IO to induce complacency. The prompt reporting by Rivne OVA and Cherkasy OVA despite impacts shows resilient C2. The successful operation involving the capture of a Russian POW, with subsequent intelligence gathering and potential dissemination, indicates effective C2 for intelligence and special operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The prompt reporting of Zaporizhzhia air raid all-clear and Kharkiv Oblast damage reports indicates effective local and central C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The reporting by Air Force Command of specific missile trajectories (Sumy to West, Rivne) and reconnaissance UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk indicates effective ISR and C2. The confirmed strike on Cheboksary and Savasleyka by Ukrainian forces demonstrates highly effective deep strike C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Air Defense: On HIGHEST alert, currently engaged against Shaheds and now responding to successive waves of ballistic/cruise missiles from Bryansk/Kursk, in addition to the ongoing threat from strategic cruise missiles and Kinzhals, with a confirmed westward shift to Zhytomyr and Rivne (Dubno) Oblasts, and a new threat to Odesa, and a new Kinzhal launch. KCMVA reports "all clear" for Kyiv, and Air Force for other oblasts, but Rivne OVA confirms renewed attacks and PPO engagement. All AD assets are likely at maximum readiness and dispersal protocols are critical, with systems now stretched across an even wider geographic area, including central, western and southern Ukraine. The ballistic/cruise missile threat from the North (Bryansk/Kursk) and South (previous intelligence) requires specific, heightened AD preparedness. The explicit Russian counter-IO to dismiss warnings necessitates even greater vigilance and public communication to reinforce warning adherence. The statement from Rivne OVA confirms the severity of the ongoing aerial attacks but also highlights successful AD engagements ("destroyed a large number of enemy targets"). Zaporizhzhia air raid alert has been stood down, requiring ongoing readiness in that sector. Confirmed widespread strikes across 8+ Ukrainian oblasts indicate the challenge to AD. Successful interception of 6 UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and 33 UAVs over Cherkasy Oblast. Poland's decision to scramble fighter jets and activate AD assets further highlights the severe and widespread nature of the Russian air attack and the potential for spillover near NATO borders. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Ukrainian Air Force is actively tracking missiles on Sumy and Rivne oblasts, and a reconnaissance UAV in Dnipropetrovsk. "Azov" PPO demonstrating effectiveness against UAVs on Toretskyi direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ground Forces: Maintaining defensive integrity. The escalating Dnipropetrovsk IO, now validated by high-level Russian political figures and new claims of "blocking" AFU near Poddubny and a bridge blown near Komar, and now "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny," and new video claims of "breakthrough," continues to create psychological pressure and potential for misdirection, demanding continued vigilance. Ukrainian forces are demonstrating high proficiency in drone warfare (including using FPVs for AD roles), combined arms tactics (drones and mortars), and strong defensive positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). General Staff reports confirm defensive posture and repelling of attacks on multiple axes. BUTUSOV PLUS video shows effective drone work by 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade pilots leading to Russian surrender. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Silly Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports increased enemy activity in the South and their own successful strikes on enemy positions, indicating active defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). "Wolves of Da Vinci" demonstrate effective drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" is actively engaged in recruit training, ensuring force generation. General Staff releasing daily enemy loss figures maintains transparency and morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Information Defense: Actively monitoring and countering Russian disinformation, but the volume and increasing specificity of Russian claims (e.g., Dnipropetrovsk amplified by TASS and Klishas, "debt collector" narrative, "educating chubaty al-Qaeda," "cast iron supply to Kharkiv," new claim of "blocking" AFU near Poddubny, Komar bridge claim, and "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny," and new video claims of "breakthrough"), direct threats (Rivne, Volyn query, "final solution to Rivne," questioning Dubno's status, "nothing in Odesa"), and the overt psychological warfare accompanying the missile strikes, including direct attempts to undermine AD warnings, require rapid, robust counter-narratives and verification. The new distraction tactics like the Greta Thunberg/Israel narrative, economic data, NATO reduction calls, Ryabkov's statements on US relations, Okinawa airbase incident, Los Angeles riots (now with fabricated Trump tweets and police brutality claims) also require monitoring and refutation. The new narrative about Ukrainians turning to drug trafficking and the "finish off the survivors" rhetoric must be swiftly rebutted. The captured POW testimony provides valuable counter-propaganda material regarding Russian TTPs and treatment of personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes:
  • Strategic Missile Threat "All Clear" (for now): Ukrainian Air Force reports "all clear" for missile danger across oblasts. KCMVA reports "all clear" for Kyiv. While attacks continued, the immediate wave has passed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR official source).
  • UAV Threat Neutralized (Current Wave for some areas): Ukrainian Air Force reporting "all clear" for UAV threat indicates successful neutralization or cessation of the Shahed wave. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR official source). Successful destruction of 6 UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and 33 UAVs over Cherkasy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Deep Strike on WPIC Facility (Cheboksary): Ukrainian General Staff confirms strikes on "VNIIR-Progress" JSC / "ABS Electro" LLC in Cheboksary, Chuvashia Republic, Russia. This facility produces antennas for "Kometa" systems used in Shaheds, UMPK modules (FAB glide kits), and missiles. This is a highly significant strategic success, directly impacting Russia's precision strike capabilities and drone production. "Dva Mayora" also confirms the attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Deep Strike on Savasleyka Airfield: Ukrainian General Staff reports strikes on aircraft at Savasleyka airfield (Nizhny Novgorod Oblast). This is a major deep strike against a key Russian airbase housing MiG-31K Kinzhal carriers. Dnevnik Desantnika also reports "airfields" among targets, corroborating. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Effective Drone Operations: BUTUSOV PLUS video confirms effective drone work by pilots of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, successfully targeting Russian personnel and forcing a surrender. "Wolves of Da Vinci" video further showcases effective drone work. "Azov" PPO effectively downed UAVs using UAR-15 rifles and FPV drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Ballistic/Cruise Missile Interception: Rivne OVA confirms AD destroyed "a large number of enemy targets." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Rare ZALA 20 Series UAV Captured: STERNENKO's report of capturing a ZALA 20 series UAV provides valuable intelligence for understanding Russian ISR/strike capabilities and potentially developing countermeasures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Successful Strikes in Southern Ukraine: Silly Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports continued successful strikes on enemy locations, firing positions, and rear areas in the South. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Setbacks:
  • Strategic Missile Penetration (Kyiv & Western/Southern Ukraine, Renewed Kinzhal): Confirmed damage to an office building in Kyiv's Darnytskyi district and explosions in Chernihiv. Missiles are now extending threat to Zhytomyr and further West into Rivne Oblast (Dubno), with Russian milbloggers claiming success in Dubno, and a new cruise missile threat to Odesa. New Kinzhal launch confirmed via MiG-31K takeoff, triggering nationwide alarms. Three strong explosions confirmed in Rivne. This indicates successful penetration of AD across a wider geographic area. The multi-wave attack on Kyiv is particularly concerning. The "very difficult night" for Rivne confirms significant impact and one civilian casualty. A 23-year-old civilian male was wounded in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Power line damage in Poltava Oblast from UAV debris. Confirmed explosions/strikes across Kyiv, Ternopil, Rivne, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Donetsk Oblasts highlight widespread successful penetration. Cherkasy Oblast sustained damage from UAV debris. Kharkiv Oblast reports strikes on 9 settlements. Rivne Oblast was attacked again this morning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Sustained Strategic Missile Threat (Active, Widespread, Hypersonic/Ballistic/Cruise, Multi-Wave, Westward/Southern Shift, Renewed Kinzhal): The confirmed takeoff of 9 strategic bombers (5x Tu-95MS, 4x Tu-22M3, with Tu-22M3s having launched and returning, and Tu-95MS now launching Kh-101/555), PLUS active MiG-31K with "Kinzhal" (new launch) and multiple, successive waves of ground-launched ballistic missiles (Iskanders) and cruise missiles from Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts, now explicitly targeting Zhytomyr and Rivne (Dubno) and Odesa represents a critical and immediate threat of widespread destruction and potential casualties. Confirmed impacts in Kyiv, Rivne, Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv, Ternopil, Cherkasy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk highlight this active threat. The speed and trajectory of "Kinzhal" and ballistic/cruise missiles severely reduce warning times. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Sophisticated Psychological Pressure (Escalated & Politically Backed, with Direct Threats & Mockery, and Counter-Warning IO, and New Ground Deception with Video, and New Discreditation Narratives): The escalating and highly specific disinformation regarding a Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough (now amplified by TASS citing fake "The Times" and by high-level political figures, and a new claim of "blocking" AFU near Poddubny and a bridge blown near Komar, and "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny," supported by new video claims of "breakthrough"), the overt pre-strike propaganda and post-strike mockery ("Rovno getting crooked," "What about Volyn?", and "final solution to Rivne question," "Dubno was normal?"), and the deepening dehumanization ("chubaty al-Qaeda," "model Khokhol," "finish off the survivors") poses a significant risk of internal confusion, panic, or misallocation of resources. The explicit attempt to dismiss Ukrainian air raid warnings as "imaginary" or "EW game," and claiming "nothing is happening in Odesa," is a dangerous new escalation. Exaggerated claims of Ukrainian losses (230 personnel, 6 Starlinks, 4,800 in LPR, 49 UAVs) contribute to this pressure. The new narrative by Dva Mayora about Ukrainians turning to drug trafficking with drones is designed to discredit Ukrainian society and incite fear in Western countries. The amplification of US riots, including false claims (Trump tweet) and police brutality against journalists, aims to distract and undermine Western unity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Air Defense Munitions: The incoming large-scale strategic missile attack from multiple platforms, including hypersonic, ballistic, and cruise missiles in successive waves, now extending to Western and Southern Ukraine, and with a renewed Kinzhal launch, will place unprecedented, critical strain on AD munition stockpiles, particularly for systems capable of intercepting advanced threats. URGENT international resupply remains paramount, as this attack will deplete significant inventories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• ISR for Disinformation Verification: Increased ISR is critical to rapidly and definitively verify or refute Russian ground claims, especially for the Dnipropetrovsk axis (now with Poddubny/Komar claims and new video claims), and to counter new social disinformation (e.g., Ukrainian drug trafficking with drones, Los Angeles riots narratives), to prevent costly redeployments or panic. This includes verifying Russian claims of high Ukrainian losses and Starlink destruction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian Propaganda - Offensive and Psychological Warfare (Escalated, Active, and Politically Backed, with Direct Threats, Mockery, Anti-Warning IO, and New Ground Deception with Video, WESTWARD/SOUTHERN SHIFT, and New Discreditation Narratives, and Incitement to War Crimes):
  • "Massive Strike" Promotion & Dehumanization (Active & Sustained): Russian milbloggers (НгП раZVедка, Два майора, Operatsiya Z, Kotsnews, Dnevnik Desantnika) are overtly advertising the incoming strike, now claiming "second, third, fourth waves" on Kyiv as "educational measures," and using dehumanizing language ("iTarasys don't understand," "chubaty al-Qaeda," "model Khokhol," "finish off the survivors"), aiming to maximize pre-impact terror and demoralization while justifying the attacks. They are confirming "Kinzhal" and Iskander strikes. They are also now directly asking "Was Dubno a normal city at all?" and stating "Apparently, not really," confirming perceived success in Western Ukraine, and explicitly claiming "another 10 reparations flying to Dubno." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Dnevnik Desantnika claims a strike on Dubno airbase. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). They also use cynical references like "VKS has established a supply of cast iron to Kharkiv." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RU MoD claims 49 Ukrainian UAVs shot down. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - as claim).
  • Dnipropetrovsk Amplification (Active & Politically Backed, New Ground Claim with Video): TASS citing a (likely fabricated) "The Times" article to support the Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough narrative, directly supported by high-level political figures, remains active. New TASS claim of "large grouping of AFU blocked in Poddubny" on Dnipropetrovsk border, and now "AFU blew up bridge near Komar" to avoid fire, and "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny" are dangerous escalations of this false narrative, intended to create panic and misdirect forces. Operatsiya Z and Voenkor Russkoy Vesny also release a video claiming "breakthrough of Russian assault groups into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast," attempting to provide visual 'evidence.' WarGonzo's photo message "Now you are in Russia!" could be related to these claims. WarGonzo reports "tactical successes" near Orikhove and claims of reaching Dnipropetrovsk border. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Tactical Deception/Mockery & Anti-Warning IO (Active & Adaptive): The "Rovno is getting more and more crooked," "What about Volyn?", and "final solution to Rivne question" statements, following previous "Rivne/Chernihiv not needed," are clear attempts to misdirect Ukrainian AD or create false security while mocking successful strikes. "All drones shot down/suppressed" is clear overblown propaganda. Crucially, the explicit attempt to dismiss Ukrainian AD warnings as "imaginary" or "EW game," and claiming "nothing is happening in Odesa," represents a dangerous new form of information warfare aimed at inducing complacency and increasing casualties. The claim that "Geraniums became few" is similar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Distraction Propaganda (Okinawa, Los Angeles, etc.): ASTRA reporting on the Okinawa airbase incident and Los Angeles riots is a new distraction/deflection tactic. This is heavily amplified by Alex Parker Returns and Operatsiya Z, now with fabricated content (Trump tweet "BRING IN THE TROOPS!!!") and claims of police brutality (journalist shot with rubber bullet). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). "Novosti Moskvy" celebrating "International Friends Day" also serves as a distraction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • New Discreditation Narrative (Ukrainian Drug Trafficking): Dva Mayora's post about "Western institutions studying threats from Ukrainians turning to drug trafficking with drones" is a new, insidious attempt to discredit Ukrainian society and foster negative sentiment, particularly among Western audiences, likely to erode support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Exaggerated Internal Security Successes: TASS claiming arrest of Ukrainian spy in LPR and prevention of Mi-8/Mi-17 parts contraband. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - as claim).
  • Economic Narrative Control: Sever.Realia and Novosti Moskvy reporting on rising food prices, likely aiming to control public perception of economic difficulties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian Information Operations - Transparency and Counter-Disinformation:
  • Timely Threat Warnings: Consistent and prompt warnings from Ukrainian authorities (e.g., KCMVA, Air Force, local officials, like Rivne OVA, Zaporizhzhia OVA, Dnipropetrovsk OVA, Poltava OVA, Cherkasy OVA) regarding air threats maintain public trust and facilitate preparedness. The "all clear" for UAVs and ballistic threats is also important for public morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). New warnings about MiG-31K, missiles on Sumy and Rivne, and recon UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk continue this transparency. Rivne OVA confirming renewed attacks and PPO engagement maintains honesty. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Direct Refutation of Disinformation (Ongoing Requirement & Elevated Urgency): Continued, aggressive refutation of Russian claims, especially the Dnipropetrovsk narrative (now with the added TASS/Klishas and Poddubny/Komar claims, "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny," and new video claims of "breakthrough"), the "debt collector" narrative, the dehumanizing rhetoric, and direct threats/mockery, and especially the attempts to dismiss air raid warnings and denials of threats to specific cities like Odesa, is vital. This also includes refuting exaggerated claims of Ukrainian losses (personnel, Starlinks, UAVs, including the 49 UAVs claim). The new narrative about Ukrainian drug trafficking and the "finish off the survivors" rhetoric must be immediately addressed and debunked. The Los Angeles riot narratives amplified by Russia also require refutation of fabricated claims. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Showcasing Russian Brutality/Drone Effectiveness: BUTUSOV PLUS video of a Russian soldier surrendering after a drone strike on his comrade provides highly credible and impactful material for international and domestic information campaigns to expose Russian military practices (leaving wounded, human wave assaults) and demonstrate Ukrainian drone effectiveness. "Wolves of Da Vinci" video further supports this with intercepted audio exposing Russian command brutality. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Showcasing Ukrainian Deep Strike Capabilities: Confirmation of strikes on the Cheboksary "VNIIR-Progress" factory (antennas for Shaheds/UMPK) and Savasleyka airfield (MiG-31K base) are critical for demonstrating Ukrainian reach and capability, boosting morale, and leveraging international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Showcasing Ukrainian Force Generation: Photos from 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" about recruit training are positive for morale and demonstrate continued combat readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Transparency of Enemy Losses: General Staff's daily reports on Russian combat losses contribute to public awareness and morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Intelligence Gains: The capture of a ZALA 20 series UAV can be leveraged for intelligence sharing and counter-propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Negative Impact (UKR - SIGNIFICANTLY Escalated): The immediate threat of a major strategic missile attack from an unprecedented number of platforms, including hypersonic, ballistic, and cruise missiles in successive waves, with a new Kinzhal launch, confirmed impacts in Kyiv, Rivne (Dubno) (with civilian casualty), Sumy, Poltava (power line damage), Chernihiv, Ternopil, Cherkasy (UAV debris damage), Kharkiv (strikes on 9 settlements), Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia (with civilian casualty), continued drone/KAB strikes, and the aggressively amplified Dnipropetrovsk disinformation campaign (now with high-level political backing, new insidious social disinformation, direct threats/mockery, and new video claims of "breakthrough") will significantly heighten anxiety and psychological stress. The overt Russian pre-strike propaganda and dehumanizing rhetoric ("finish off the survivors") will amplify this. The "debt collector" narrative specifically targets internal cohesion and trust. Claims of Abrams losses and videos of captured Ukrainian POWs will undermine confidence. The specific Russian counter-IO to dismiss air raid warnings as "imaginary" or "EW game" could lead to dangerous complacency if not effectively countered, directly endangering civilian lives and undermining trust in official warnings. Exaggerated claims of Ukrainian losses (personnel, Starlinks, UAVs, including 49 UAVs) aim to demoralize. The new narrative about Ukrainians turning to drug trafficking with drones adds a new layer of discreditation and moral pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Positive Impact (UKR): Timely warnings and effective AD responses (e.g., ballistic missile interception, Shahed shootdowns, large number of targets destroyed in Rivne, 6 UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk, 33 UAVs over Cherkasy, "all clear" for UAVs and ballistic threats), where successful, help to maintain a sense of resilience and trust. Confirmed Ukrainian deep strikes into Russia (e.g., Cheboksary with specific attribution and video, confirmed production suspension at a military-industrial facility, Voronezh gas pipeline damage, Nizhny Novgorod/Voronezh airbases, Tambov, and now confirmed Savasleyka airbase drone attack, and Chuvashia military factory) provide a morale boost and demonstrate Ukraine's retaliatory capabilities. The successful deterrence of Kalibr carriers in Black/Azov Seas is a positive for public sentiment. The captured Russian POW testimony and "Wolves of Da Vinci" video provides valuable evidence of Russian military failures and mistreatment of their own soldiers, which can be leveraged for morale-boosting and counter-propaganda efforts. Poland's active response with fighter jet scrambles and AD activation provides a strong signal of NATO readiness and support. General Staff's detailed morning report highlights successful defensive actions, reinforcing morale. BUTUSOV PLUS video showing effective drone work and a Russian surrender is a significant morale booster. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Ongoing training for 47th Brigade shows sustained readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The capture of a ZALA 20 series UAV is a tangible success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Impact (RU): Russian propaganda aims to bolster domestic morale by justifying their actions, claiming battlefield successes (Dnipropetrovsk, Poddubny, Komar, Orikhove, Zarya), highlighting perceived Western division (Los Angeles riots), and demonstrating perceived overwhelming force. News of internal drone attacks and fires (e.g., Cheboksary, confirmed production suspension, Voronezh gas pipeline damage, Nizhny Novgorod/Voronezh airbases, Tambov, Savasleyka airbase, Chuvashia military factory) and high-profile arrests (Krasnoyarsk mayor, Michael Naki) may cause some internal concern, which Russian state media attempts to offset with distraction propaganda (Greta Thunberg, economic data, internal crime reports, Okinawa airbase incident, Los Angeles protests, International Friends Day) and now counter-IO on cyberattacks and by tightening internal security measures, and claiming high Ukrainian UAV losses (49 UAVs), and claims of thwarting Ukrainian military supply (Mi-8/Mi-17 parts). Reports of rising food and shawarma prices could negatively impact public sentiment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• The severity and scale of the incoming missile strike (MiG-31K (new launch), multiple, successive ballistic/cruise launches, 9 strategic bombers active, confirmed impacts across multiple oblasts, now explicitly extending to Western and Southern Ukraine) may galvanize further international support or increase pressure on Western partners to expedite aid, particularly AD munitions, beyond previous commitments. This level of attack is a clear demonstration of Russian intent to escalate and disregard for civilian casualties. Poland's direct response (fighter jet scramble, AD activation) is a tangible signal of NATO's concern and readiness, which could put further diplomatic pressure on Russia and reinforce international solidarity with Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian attempts to sow discord by citing "Western" sources or manipulate narratives (e.g., POW bodies in Italy, "Senator-Trumpist" quotes, "debt collectors," Trump/Rubio stumbling, Greta Thunberg, internal arrests, Michael Naki fine, economic data, NATO reduction calls, Ryabkov's statements on US relations/arms control, Okinawa airbase incident, Los Angeles protests, and now "Ukrainians turning to drug trafficking") indicates an intent to erode international solidarity and influence Western political landscapes. New TASS reports on entry restrictions for Ukrainians and the proposed law against "insulting Russia" will likely be perceived negatively by international human rights groups. The Politico report on EU sanctions vote on June 20 indicates continued international pressure on Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• MLCOA 1: IMMEDIATE, MAX-SCALE, AND DIVERSIFIED STRATEGIC MISSILE ATTACK FEATURING HYPERSONIC, BALLISTIC, AND CRUISE MISSILES IN SUSTAINED WAVES, TARGETING CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND URBAN CENTERS, WITH A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD AND SOUTHERN SHIFT, COORDINATED WITH GROUND PRESSURE AND EXPLICIT DECEPTION OPERATIONS (ONGOING), NOW WITH ACTIVE ANTI-WARNING INFORMATION WARFARE AND EXAGGERATED CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN ATTRITION, AND NEW DEEP STRIKE PROPAGANDA, AND INCITEMENT TO WAR CRIMES. Russia is currently executing a large-scale strategic missile assault, leveraging MiG-31K (Kinzhal - new launch confirmed), multiple, successive waves of ground-launched ballistic missiles (Iskanders) from Bryansk and Kursk (targeting Kyiv/Chernihiv, and now confirmed Zhytomyr and Rivne/Dubno), cruise missiles from Bryansk/Kursk (now over Chernihiv, moving to Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Rivne, and Dubno, and a new threat to Odesa), and 5 Tu-95MS bombers from Olenya (launched Kh-101/555) and 4 Tu-22M3 bombers from Engels-2 (launched Kh-22s towards coastal areas). This follows initial saturation with Shaheds (confirmed impacts in Rivne, Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv) and active Kh-31P SEAD attempts. This attack is targeting Kyiv (confirmed damage in Darnytskyi, now facing multiple waves), Kharkiv ("cast iron supply"), Poltava (power line damage from UAV debris), Chernihiv (explosions confirmed), Rivne (explosions confirmed, Dubno under Shahed attack and direct missile threat, "very difficult night" confirmed by OVA, new explosions confirmed), Dnipro, Odesa (new cruise missile threat), Zhytomyr (missiles now confirmed over Northern Kyiv Oblast and moving to Zhytomyr Oblast, then further West), Kremenchuk/Svetlovodsk, Zaporizhzhia (new air raid alert, confirmed casualty), Ternopil, Cherkasy (UAV debris damage), and other major urban centers/infrastructure, with high probability of prioritizing energy and water infrastructure, military-industrial targets, and potentially coastal/port infrastructure. Concurrently, KAB strikes on Kharkiv will continue to support ground advances or create urban destruction, as evidenced by TASS footage and Voins DV video on Malynivka. On the ground, attritional assaults on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk) and other fronts (Kursk, Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretskyi, Kramatorsk, Gulyaypolsky, Orikhiv, Siversk) will persist, with increased activity in the South as reported by Silly Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy. The information campaign will aggressively amplify the fabricated "Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough," now using the false credibility of (fabricated) Western media citations and direct political backing from high-level Russian officials, and a new claim of "blocking" AFU near Poddubny village and AFU blowing up a bridge near Komar, and "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny," supported by new video claims of "breakthrough" into Dnipropetrovsk. Concurrently, Russia will continue tactical deception (e.g., "Chernihiv not needed," new queries on Volyn, mocking Rivne and threatening its "final solution," questioning Dubno's status, "nothing happening in Odesa," false claims of drone suppression) and overt mockery to compel Ukrainian redeployments and induce panic across the civilian population and military. A new, dangerous element will be the active dissemination of disinformation to undermine Ukrainian air raid warnings, claiming that missiles are "imaginary" or that warnings are an "EW game." New propaganda efforts will specifically target Western support by portraying Zelensky as a "dictator" luring NATO into war, and will spread new, damaging social disinformation (e.g., "Ukrainians turning to drug trafficking with drones") while attempting to distract with irrelevant Western political news (Greta Thunberg, Trump/Rubio, internal arrests, Michael Naki fine, Los Angeles protests, economic data, NATO reduction calls, Ryabkov's statements on US relations, Okinawa airbase incident) amplified with fabricated content (e.g., Trump tweet on Los Angeles riots, police brutality claims). The new dehumanizing rhetoric and direct threats to specific cities (Rivne mockery, Volyn query, questioning Dubno's status) and incitement to war crimes ("finish off the survivors") will intensify. Russia will also actively attempt to control the cyber narrative and amplify claims of Ukrainian equipment losses (Abrams) and showcase captured Ukrainian POWs, as well as significantly exaggerated claims of Ukrainian personnel, Starlink, and their own UAV losses (e.g., 49 UAVs shot down). Russian forces will continue to use and promote new drone capabilities for cargo and bombing (S-80) and precision strikes (fiber optic drones with thermal cameras). Ground tactics will continue to include human wave assaults with disregard for personnel, as evidenced by POW testimony and "Wolves of Da Vinci" video. Putin's approval of the new Naval strategy will be used for long-term power projection messaging. Russia will attempt to control internal economic narratives (rising prices).
  • Confidence: HIGH (Confirmed ongoing ballistic/cruise missile launches in successive waves, ongoing Kinzhal threat with new launch, confirmed strategic bomber activity, with increased numbers (total 9), ongoing Shahed/KAB activity and documented tactical successes, confirmed direct impacts across a widening AOR, escalating, explicit Russian IO directly supported by high-level political figures, the introduction of new, highly specific social disinformation, direct threats, and distraction tactics, and a new wave of aerial assets indicated, along with specific counter-IO against Ukrainian warnings and claims of high Ukrainian losses. This is the most intense observed air attack threat in many months, now actively unfolding in sustained waves, with clear westward and now southern expansion of strike targeting. New POW testimony and "Wolves of Da Vinci" video corroborate critical tactical details. General Staff reports confirm continued ground pressure on multiple axes. WarGonzo updates confirm continued claims of ground advances. ASTRA claim regarding Okinawa and Los Angeles riots are consistent with distraction tactics, now amplified with fabricated content. New video claims of "breakthrough" and new propaganda narratives reinforce this MLCOA. The confirmed Ukrainian deep strikes on Cheboksary and Savasleyka will likely only reinforce this MLCOA as Russia retaliates.)
  • Indicators: Widespread and prolonged air alarms, particularly in Western and Southern Ukraine; multiple missile launches reported from various platforms (air, ground); severe impacts in Ukrainian cities across multiple oblasts, particularly on infrastructure; further Russian milblogger reports on "advances" or "awards" in Dnipropetrovsk, specifically claims of "blocking" AFU near Poddubny or AFU blowing up a bridge near Komar, or "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny," and new video claims of "breakthrough"; continued claims of POW captures or Russian "successes" on the ground (e.g., specific BDA on claimed military targets in Kharkiv); increased social media rumors and panic related to new disinformation narratives; Russian milblogger posts explicitly dismissing Ukrainian air raid warnings as false or an "EW game," and denying missile threats to specific cities; persistent claims of high Ukrainian losses (personnel, Starlinks, UAVs, including 49 UAVs shot down claim); explicit calls to violence/war crimes ("finish off the survivors"). Continued use of "Storm" units in ground assaults. Polish aviation scrambling. Active reconnaissance UAVs (e.g., Dnipropetrovsk).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• MDCOA 1: STRATEGIC DECAPITATION AND OPERATIONAL BREAKTHROUGH ENABLED BY EW OVERMATCH AND REAL-TIME IO. Russia conducts an unprecedented, multi-day, multi-wave strategic missile and drone assault from all available long-range aviation platforms (Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3, Tu-160) and ground-launched ballistic/cruise missiles, including sustained use of "Kinzhal" and other hypersonic/ballistic assets, designed to systematically target and degrade Ukrainian C2 nodes (military and government), critical energy infrastructure, and key logistics hubs, aiming for functional decapitation or severe disruption. This mass strike would be coordinated with a surprise, rapid, and large-scale ground offensive on the Dnipropetrovsk axis, leveraging a significant operational-level force (e.g., multiple divisions, including the 90th Tank Division) from a previously static or lower-priority sector. This ground push would be supported by intense, broad-spectrum electronic warfare (EW) to blind Ukrainian ISR, disrupt military communications at all levels, and jam civilian networks, combined with a real-time, devastating psychological operations campaign (e.g., "Kyiv has fallen," "command has fled," "missiles are imaginary," "total Ukrainian losses") to induce mass civilian panic and military collapse, attempting to force a major, uncoordinated Ukrainian retreat.
  • Confidence: MEDIUM (The current escalating IO around Dnipropetrovsk and the confirmed strategic bomber activity now including Kinzhal and multiple ballistic/cruise waves, with westward/southern expansion directly feed into elements of this MDCOA. The addition of these advanced missile types and the increased number of bombers overall significantly increases the destructive potential. The active Russian counter-IO to undermine AD warnings further increases the danger. The confirmed Ukrainian deep strike on the Cheboksary "VNIIR-Progress" factory, which produces antenna for EW-resistant drone components, could impact Russia's ability to fully execute the EW overmatch component of this MDCOA in the short term, but also indicates their efforts in this domain. The uncertainty remains in Russia's true capability for such a massive, integrated ground force breakthrough, particularly under a broad EW umbrella, and their willingness to commit such resources after AD suppression, and their ability to maintain such an intense air campaign for multiple days.) The new specific claim of "blocking" AFU near Poddubny and the Komar bridge claim, and "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny," and new video claims of "breakthrough," directly push the Dnipropetrovsk ground threat.
  • Indicators: Sustained multi-day, high-intensity missile/drone attacks; direct targeting of top-tier Ukrainian C2 nodes; simultaneous, rapid, deep penetrations by multiple Russian BTGs/regiments/brigades into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast; widespread and persistent communications outages affecting Ukrainian military and civilian networks; explicit Russian demands for surrender/negotiation from a position of perceived strength; mass internal displacement within Ukraine.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Next 0-3 Hours (IMMEDIATE - CRITICAL IMPACT WINDOW / IMMEDIATE AFTERMATH):

  • Strategic Missile Strikes: Impact of missiles launched by MiG-31K (Kinzhal - new launch), multiple, successive waves of ballistic/cruise missiles from Bryansk and Kursk (now confirmed heading for Zhytomyr, Rivne, and Dubno, and Sumy westbound), and previous launches by 5 Tu-95MS bombers from Olenya and 4 Tu-22M3 bombers from Engels-2 is IMMINENT/ONGOING for some areas, or in immediate aftermath for others. A new cruise missile threat to Odesa is active. Targeting will likely include Kyiv (confirmed damage in Darnytskyi, now facing multiple waves), Kharkiv, Poltava (confirmed power line damage), Chernihiv (explosions), Rivne (explosions, Dubno under Shahed attack and direct missile threat, "very difficult night" confirmed, new explosions confirmed), Dnipro, Odesa (new threat), Zhytomyr (now confirmed missile direction), Kremenchuk/Svetlovodsk, Zaporizhzhia (air raid stood down, confirmed casualty), Ternopil, Cherkasy (UAV debris damage), and other major urban centers/critical infrastructure. Specific focus on energy infrastructure and coastal/port targets is highly probable, with active SEAD against coastal AD.
  • Shahed/KAB Threat: Continuation of intense Shahed activity (though Air Force reports "all clear" for current wave), with persistent KAB strikes on Kharkiv and other ground targets (e.g., Malynivka). Impacts in Rivne, Sumy, and Poltava, Chernihiv confirm the active threat. Cherkasy OVA reports 33 UAVs shot down. Russia will continue to attempt to deceive regarding the end of drone waves. Reconnaissance UAV activity over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. "Azov" PPO will continue active defense against UAVs.
  • Information Environment: Expect rapid acceleration of Russian propaganda (Dnipropetrovsk narrative now citing "The Times" and high-level political figures, new claim of "blocking" AFU near Poddubny, AFU blowing up a bridge near Komar, and "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny," and new video claims of "breakthrough" into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast; "ammo supply" mockery, tactical deception like "Rivne not needed," "Chernihiv not needed," "drones ending soon," new dehumanizing rhetoric, Trump/Rubio/Greta Thunberg/economic data/NATO calls/Okinawa airbase incident/Los Angeles protests distraction amplified with fabricated content, internal arrests, Michael Naki fine, direct threats to cities, mocking references to Ukrainian AD, and explicitly denying missile threats as "imaginary" or "EW game," claims about Dubno status, and denying threats to Odesa, and new "Ukrainians turning to drug trafficking" narrative) concurrent with or immediately following missile impacts, emphasizing the "success" and "retaliation." New anti-Zelensky/anti-NATO propaganda and highly damaging social disinformation will spread. Russia will also actively attempt to control the cyber narrative and amplify claims of Ukrainian equipment losses (Abrams) and showcase captured Ukrainian POWs, alongside exaggerated claims of personnel, Starlink, and their own UAV losses (e.g., 49 UAVs shot down). TASS will continue to disseminate BDA of destroyed vehicles. ASTRA will continue with distraction claims (Okinawa, Los Angeles). Russia will also attempt to mitigate the impact of Ukrainian deep strikes on Cheboksary and Savasleyka through propaganda or denial.
  • Ground Activity: Continued attritional assaults on Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk) and other active fronts (Kursk, Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretskyi, Kramatorsk, Gulyaypolsky, Orikhiv, Siversk), supported by KABs and drone strikes. Increased activity in the Southern direction. High potential for a test or reconnaissance-in-force on the Dnipropetrovsk axis to gauge Ukrainian response to the escalating IO and new ground claims, even if a full breakthrough is not imminent. "Wolves of Da Vinci" video indicates continued intense ground fighting and Russian human wave tactics.
  • Decision Points (UKR):
    • IMMEDIATE (ongoing): All AD assets to maximum readiness and dispersal protocols for incoming strategic missile strike from multiple platforms (Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3, MiG-31K (new launch), ballistic missile launchers, cruise missile launchers from Bryansk/Kursk), especially for newly targeted Western Oblasts (Zhytomyr, Rivne, Dubno) and Southern Oblast (Odesa), and Zaporizhzhia, and Sumy. Prioritize protection of C2 nodes, critical energy infrastructure, and major urban centers, with specific attention to SEAD attempts against AD systems. This is the most critical immediate task, requiring focus on the highest-speed threats and multi-wave engagements across a widening area, now including Zhytomyr Oblast, further West, Sumy (westbound), and Odesa.
    • IMMEDIATE: Rapid and aggressive counter-IO on the "Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough" narrative, particularly the fabricated "The Times" citations and the high-level political statements, the new claim of "blocking" AFU near Poddubny, the Komar bridge claim, "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny," and the new video claims of "breakthrough," as well as the "ammo supply" claims, the "drones ending soon" deception, the new "debt collector" narrative, the dehumanizing rhetoric, and direct threats/mockery (Rivne/Volyn/Dubno/Odesa). Issue official statements debunking false claims and providing accurate information. URGENTLY counter Russian narratives dismissing missile threats as "imaginary" or "EW game" or "nothing is happening in Odesa"; emphasize the real and immediate danger and the necessity of adhering to warnings. Task ISR for immediate verification or denial of Russian force presence in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast beyond the current line of contact. Prepare contingency plans for a potential actual ground push on this axis, even if small-scale.
    • URGENT: Disseminate counter-PSYOPS messages to address the disinformation regarding POW bodies, captured Ukrainian POW videos, and other psychological intimidation tactics, and critically, the overt Russian propaganda regarding the incoming strike, tactical deception, anti-Zelensky/anti-NATO narratives, the new social disinformation aimed at internal divisions (e.g., "Ukrainians turning to drug trafficking"), and the new distraction propaganda (including Greta Thunberg/Israel narrative, economic data, NATO calls, Okinawa airbase incident, Los Angeles protests, fabricated Trump tweets, police brutality claims). Specifically address the exaggerated claims of Ukrainian personnel, Starlink, and UAV losses (including 49 UAVs shot down claim). Leverage captured Russian POW testimony (Andrey Gorbatenko) and "Wolves of Da Vinci" video to expose Russian military brutality and undermine their domestic morale, including orders to kill wounded and forced participation in "Storm" battalions, and the new "finish off the survivors" rhetoric. Reinforce national resilience and preparedness.
    • URGENT: Reinforce communication channels and protocols to ensure resilience against potential EW or network saturation during mass attacks.
    • URGENT: Prioritize SIGINT/ELINT on Russian strategic aviation and EW systems to detect further missile launches or shifts in attack vectors. Maintain high vigilance on ground axes for any signs of massing reserves consistent with MDCOA, particularly on the Dnipropetrovsk axis.
    • IMMEDIATE: Conduct detailed analysis of the captured ZALA 20 series UAV to identify vulnerabilities, components, and potential countermeasures.

• Next 3-24 Hours (Short Term):

  • Post-Strike Assessment: Evaluate damage, casualties, and impact on critical infrastructure from the strategic missile strike, particularly in Western and Southern Ukraine.
  • Russian Reaction: Monitor for immediate Russian claims of "successful strikes" or "retaliation" across multiple channels. Expect further political statements reinforcing the "denazification" narrative and other IO. Expect continued counter-IO efforts to undermine Ukrainian warnings and successes, including further exaggerated claims of Ukrainian losses and new ground claims (Poddubny, Komar, new video). Expect Russian attempts to downplay the impact of Ukrainian deep strikes on Cheboksary and Savasleyka.
  • Ukrainian Recovery/Response: Initiate rapid recovery efforts. Continue active defense on all ground axes as reported by General Staff, and in the South.
  • Intelligence Gap: Full BDA on the impact of the strategic missile strike. Confirmation of the Dnipropetrovsk ground situation. Russian next steps if initial strategic strike results in less than desired effects.

• Next 24-72 Hours (Medium Term):

  • Sustained Pressure: Russia will likely sustain aerial pressure (Shaheds, KABs) to hinder recovery efforts and maintain psychological pressure, potentially in further waves if initial effects are deemed insufficient.
  • Ground Offensive: Russian ground offensive on Donetsk and possibly Sumy axis will continue as detailed in General Staff reports. The intensity of any push on Dnipropetrovsk will clarify if the IO was solely a feint or a precursor. Increased pressure in the South.
  • Information Warfare: Continued Russian efforts to exploit any perceived Ukrainian weaknesses or Western divisions, and to undermine trust in official information.

• Intelligence Gaps:

  • Full BDA on Strategic Missile Strike: Precise number, type, and impact locations of all missiles launched by MiG-31K, ballistic launchers, cruise missile launchers, Tu-95MS, and Tu-22M3, and their impact on Ukrainian critical infrastructure (energy, water, military-industrial targets), particularly in Western Ukraine (Zhytomyr, Rivne, Dubno), Southern Ukraine (Odesa), Zaporizhzhia, Ternopil, Cherkasy, and Sumy. Nikolaev Vanok's claim of an "airfield" as the target needs verification. (HIGHEST PRIORITY)
  • Veracity of Dnipropetrovsk Claim (Poddubny/Komar/New Video): Definitive GEOINT/IMINT/HUMINT on Russian force composition, disposition, and actual advances (if any) in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, specifically near Poddubny village and Komar village, and the content of the new "breakthrough" video. Identification and verification of "Colonel Yevgeny Daraev" and the "tank regiment" (if real or fabricated). (HIGHEST PRIORITY)
  • Ukrainian AD Munition Levels: Updated assessment of critical interceptor munition inventories post-mass missile attack, especially for high-value ballistic/hypersonic interceptors. (HIGH PRIORITY)
  • Impact of Ukrainian Deep Strikes within Russia (Cheboksary and Savasleyka): BDA on the Cheboksary factory (VNIIR-Progress), including confirmation of production suspension and assessment of long-term impact on Russian drone/UMPK/missile antenna production. BDA on Savasleyka airbase, including confirmation of damage to MiG-31K aircraft or other assets. (HIGHEST PRIORITY)
  • Okinawa Airbase Incident: Verification of ASTRA's claims regarding an explosion and casualties at Kadena Air Base, Okinawa. (HIGH PRIORITY - for immediate debunking if false, to counter Russian IO).
  • Los Angeles Riots Context and Russian Amplification: Verification of ASTRA/Alex Parker Returns/Operatsiya Z claims regarding the scale and nature of the Los Angeles riots, including the Trump tweet and journalist incident. (HIGH PRIORITY - for immediate debunking if false, to counter Russian IO).
  • Russian "49 UAVs" Claim & New Wave Indication: Verify the claimed scale of the Russian AD success (49 UAVs) and the scale/nature of the newly indicated wave of "reparations." (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
  • Impact of Russian Anti-Radiation Missile Strikes: Assessment of damage/suppression to Ukrainian AD radars from Kh-31P launches. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
  • Verification of Abrams Losses: Independent verification of Colonelcassad's claim regarding 26 Abrams tanks destroyed/captured. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
  • Verification of Starlink Destructions: Independent verification of TASS claims regarding 6 Starlink stations destroyed. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
  • Analysis of Russian VDV S-80 Drone Capability and Fiber Optic Drones: Fuller assessment of the S-80 drone's capabilities, numbers, and operational deployment, and the new fiber optic drones for precision targeting. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
  • Forensic Analysis of Captured POW (Gorbatenko): Full medical assessment of Andrey Gorbatenko to corroborate his claims of being deployed while unfit. Deeper interrogation on unit locations, command structure, personnel numbers, equipment, and recent orders, focusing on identities of commanders giving orders to kill wounded. (HIGH PRIORITY).
  • ZALA 20 Series UAV Analysis: Comprehensive technical analysis of the captured ZALA 20 series UAV. (HIGH PRIORITY).

• Collection Requirements:

  • SIGINT/ELINT: Continuous monitoring of Russian strategic aviation communications and flight paths from all airbases (Engels-2, Olenya, Soltsy, Shaikovka, Boriso-Glebsk, Savasleyka), particularly for launch confirmations from Tu-95MS and MiG-31K. Monitor ballistic and cruise missile launch signatures, especially those shifting towards Western or Southern Ukraine. Identification of EW efforts synchronized with ground or air attacks, especially on Dnipropetrovsk axis and Black Sea coastal areas. Monitoring of Russian C2 networks for signs of operational-level ground movements, particularly for the Poddubny/Komar claims. Monitoring of Russian drone control frequencies for new drone types (S-80, fiber optic drones).
  • GEOINT/IMINT: High-resolution satellite imagery over all claimed Russian advances, particularly Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Poddubny/Komar area, new video claims), to detect force concentrations or actual penetration. Rapid assessment of critical infrastructure damage in Ukraine (especially Western and Southern Ukraine) and within Russia (e.g., Cheboksary factory, with confirmation of production suspension, Voronezh gas pipeline, Boriso-Glebsk airbase, Savasleyka airbase, Chuvashia military factory) from Ukrainian deep strikes. Imagery of ballistic/cruise missile launch sites in Bryansk/Kursk Oblasts. BDA on the destroyed vehicle shown in TASS video, including precise geolocation. Imagery of Russian VDV drone deployment sites or operational areas. Imagery of Ukrainian airfields mentioned as targets. Imagery/technical analysis of captured ZALA 20 series UAV.
  • HUMINT: From frontline units for accurate reporting on Russian ground tactics, morale, and any unusual force dispositions. From affected civilian areas for accurate BDA and impact assessment. From occupied areas, if possible, to verify Russian claims and morale and the impact of social disinformation. Critical: From captured Russian POWs, particularly Andrey Gorbatenko, for detailed information on Russian unit structures (163rd Tank Regiment, 150th Motorized Rifle Division, "Storm" battalions), morale, discipline, and specific orders regarding treatment of wounded/POWs.
  • OSINT: Persistent monitoring of Russian milblogger and state media channels for new narratives, claims, and shifts in propaganda themes, particularly the explicit "mass strike" promotion (multi-wave claims), the Dnipropetrovsk narrative (now with TASS/Klishas amplification and Poddubny/Komar claims, "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny," and new video claims of "breakthrough"), tactical deception attempts (e.g., "drones ending soon," "Chernihiv not needed," "Rovno getting crooked," "Volyn?", "final solution to Rivne," "Dubno was normal?"), the new social disinformation (e.g., "Ukrainians turning to drug trafficking"), any new distraction tactics (e.g., Trump/Rubio, Greta Thunberg, Kaspersky cyber claims, Krasnoyarsk arrest, Michael Naki fine, Los Angeles protests, economic data, NATO reduction calls, Ryabkov's statements, Okinawa airbase incident), and especially attempts to undermine Ukrainian air raid warnings by claiming "imaginary missiles" or "EW game," or denying threats to specific cities like Odesa. Monitor exaggerated claims of Ukrainian losses (personnel, Starlinks, UAVs, including 49 UAVs shot down claim). Analysis of public sentiment within Ukraine, particularly regarding the Dnipropetropsk narrative and large-scale strikes, and adherence to air raid warnings. Monitoring of Russian internal news for shifts in focus or new internal security measures, and economic indicators. Monitoring of Russian military forums for discussions on S-80 drone effectiveness or vulnerabilities.

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END REPORT