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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-06-09 05:50:48Z
8 months ago
Previous (2025-06-09 05:21:05Z)

OPSEC CLASSIFICATION: NATO SECRET // RELEASABLE TO UKR FORCES

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) TIME OF REPORT: 09 JUN 25 / 05:49 ZULU REPORTING PERIOD: 09 JUN 25 / 05:19 ZULU - 09 JUN 25 / 05:49 ZULU PREPARED BY: Senior Military Intelligence Analyst, Eastern European Warfare Desk

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

  • AOR Update: Kyiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Black Sea, Azov Sea, Sumy Oblast, Russian Federation border regions (Kursk, Bryansk, Belgorod, Tambov, Voronezh, Chuvasia, Nizhny Novgorod, Cheboksary, Moscow Oblast, Okinawa - US Kadena Airbase), and the Donetsk axis remain active. Chernihiv Oblast, Rivne Oblast, Zhytomyr Oblast, and Volyn Oblast are under direct aerial attack. Odesa Oblast and Black Sea region under active missile threat. Continued emphasis on Kremenchuk/Svetlovodsk axis. Kryvyi Rih reports situation controlled. Kharkiv Oblast has sustained strikes on 9 settlements.
  • New Developments (UKR):
    • Cherkasy Oblast UAV Damage: Cherkasy Oblast OVA reports significant damage from UAV debris overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR official source).
    • Zaporizhzhia Air Raid "All Clear": Zaporizhzhia Oblast OVA reports "all clear" for air raid alert. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR official source).
  • New Developments (RU):
    • Okinawa Airbase Incident (RU Claims): ASTRA (RU milblogger) claims an explosion at Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, resulting in four injured. This is a likely disinformation attempt. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger, HIGH confidence in it being narrative control/distraction).
    • Dnipropetrovsk Border "Blocked" Claim (Update): TASS reports that a portion of the AFU grouping has been destroyed in Poddubny on the DPR border. This is a further, highly specific, and unverified claim regarding the Dnipropetrovsk axis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian state media, HIGH confidence in it being a propaganda claim rather than verifiable fact).
    • Russian Milblogger Aerial Attack Promotion: Operatsiya Z (RU milblogger) posts multiple videos claiming a "massive combined strike" by RF Armed Forces against enemy targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger promoting RU capabilities). This indicates continued Russian adaptation in drone warfare.
    • Dubno Airbase Strike Claim: Dnevnik Desantnika (RU milblogger) claims RF Armed Forces struck an "enemy airbase" in Dubno, Rivne Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger promoting RU capabilities). This corroborates previous Ukrainian reports of impacts in Rivne Oblast.
    • WarGonzo Morning Summaries: WarGonzo (RU milblogger) provides morning summaries for June 9, 2025, detailing "tactical successes" in Orikhove (Donetsk Oblast, likely Ocheretyne) and confirming the capture of Zarya, and repeating claims of reaching the Dnipropetrovsk border. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger, but confidence on veracity of claims is MEDIUM).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations:

  • Conducive to All Aerial Operations: Continued mass aerial assaults confirm clear weather. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

  • Ukrainian Forces (Air Defense): Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "all clear" for the UAV threat, but the multi-wave missile attack (Kinzhal, ballistic, cruise) has just concluded for some areas, with confirmed impacts across multiple oblasts. AD assets remain severely strained across a widening multi-axis engagement. Kyiv AD has received "all clear," but active engagements continued in Western Ukraine. The "very difficult night" for Rivne Oblast confirms ongoing severe AD pressure, but also successful engagements by PPO. Zaporizhzhia Oblast air raid alert has been stood down. Confirmed strikes in Kyiv, Ternopil, Rivne, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Donetsk Oblasts highlight widespread penetration. Cherkasy OVA reports 33 UAVs shot down overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Poland's decision to scramble fighter jets and activate AD assets further highlights the severe and widespread nature of the Russian air attack and the potential for spillover near NATO borders. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Ukrainian Forces (Ground): Maintaining defensive postures. Continued pressure on the Donetsk axis remains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). New information from a captured Russian POW confirms Ukrainian forces are using effective drone warfare (FPV and Mavic for recon), mortar fire, and combined arms tactics, demonstrating strong defensive positions and effective ambush capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). General Staff provides operational information as of 08:00 on June 9, 2025, detailing enemy activity on various fronts (Kursk, Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretskyi, Kramatorsk, Gulyaypolsky, Orikhiv, Siversk). This confirms active engagements across multiple sectors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). BUTUSOV PLUS video confirms 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade pilots operating drones, successfully targeting Russian personnel, leading to a surrender. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Ukrainian Naval Forces: Reporting provides a current snapshot of Russian naval presence and threat, indicating no immediate Kalibr threat from Black/Azov Seas but a persistent one from the Mediterranean. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Russian Forces (Air): Confirmed launch of MiG-31K with "Kinzhal" and multiple, successive waves of ballistic/cruise missiles from Bryansk/Kursk Oblasts, explicitly targeting Zhytomyr and Rivne (Dubno) Oblasts, and "Shahed" UAVs. New cruise missile detection towards Odesa. Shaheds continue to impact multiple oblasts, particularly Dubno, Rivne, Sumy, Poltava, and Chernihiv. Russian milbloggers are confirming impacts on Dubno and actively dismissing Ukrainian AD warnings. Operatsiya Z posts videos of claimed "massive combined strike." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Russian Forces (Ground): General Staff reports (as of 08:00, 09 JUN) indicate continued Russian pressure across numerous fronts. On the Kursk direction, the enemy conducted 15 attacks. On the Lyman direction, 4 attacks were repelled. On the Kupyansk direction, 7 attacks were repelled. On the Toretskyi direction, 19 attacks were carried out. On the Kramatorsk direction, 10 attacks were repelled. On the Gulyaypolsky direction, the enemy attacked 10 times. On the Orikhiv direction, 7 attacks were repelled. On the Siversk direction, the enemy conducted 3 attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS claims AFU blew up a bridge near Komar village, aiming to show AFU being "blocked." TASS claims a portion of AFU grouping destroyed in Poddubny on DPR border. WarGonzo claims tactical successes near Orikhove (likely Ocheretyne) and capture of Zarya, and reaching Dnipropetrovsk border. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - as claims, MEDIUM - as verifiable fact).
  • Russian Forces (Information Operations): Highly aggressive and adaptive, explicitly promoting successive waves of strikes on Kyiv ("educational measures"), using footage of claimed tactical successes, and continuing misdirection ("Chernihiv not needed," implying Rivne/Dubno is target, asking about Volyn, claiming "imaginary missiles," "nothing happening in Odesa"). Direct threats and dehumanizing rhetoric continue ("final solution to Rivne question," "supply of cast iron to Kharkiv," "model Khokhol"). Distraction tactics (Greta Thunberg, US politics, internal arrests, Okinawa airbase explosion) are also observed. Claims of destroying 230 Ukrainian personnel and 6 Starlink stations, and 4,800 losses in LPR, are part of the exaggerated claims for demoralization. New efforts to undermine Ukrainian AD warnings by explicitly calling them "imaginary" or an "EW game" are prominent. New TASS reports on economic data and Ryabkov's statement regarding NATO reduction and US relations are likely aimed at shaping international perception and internal narratives. Propaganda celebrating "paratrooper brotherhood" continues to reinforce domestic morale. The new claim of a "large grouping of AFU" being "blocked" near Poddubny (previously Komar), Dnipropetrovsk border, is a direct, aggressive expansion of the false Dnipropetrovsk offensive narrative. The new TASS claim about a bridge near Komar being blown up by AFU to prevent escape is another iteration of this narrative. TASS's statement about the Krasnoyarsk mayor's office operating normally is narrative control. ASTRA claims an explosion at Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, injured four people – likely a disinformation attempt to distract or sow discord. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

  • Capabilities:
    • Sustained Full-Spectrum Strategic Air Strike Capability (Confirmed & Active at Maximum Scale, Expanding Western/Southern Targets): Russia is currently demonstrating its capability to conduct a sustained, massive, multi-platform, multi-axis strategic missile attack utilizing hypersonic "Kinzhal" missiles from MiG-31K, multiple, successive waves of ballistic missiles (likely Iskanders) from ground launchers in Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts, strategic cruise missiles (Kh-101/555) from Tu-95MS (previous wave) and now fresh cruise missiles from Bryansk/Kursk direction, and heavy anti-ship missiles (Kh-22) from Tu-22M3 (previous wave). The focus on "second, third, fourth waves" on Kyiv highlights a clear intent to sustain overwhelming pressure. The expansion of missile paths towards Zhytomyr and Rivne (Dubno), and now a new cruise missile threat to Odesa, confirms their intent and capability to strike deeper into Western and Southern Ukraine. Confirmed impacts across 8+ Ukrainian oblasts demonstrate this capability. Operatsiya Z videos promote the "massive combined strike." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Ground Offensive Capabilities (Confirmed & Persistent): General Staff reports confirm Russian forces are actively conducting offensive operations on multiple axes, including Kursk, Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretskyi, Kramatorsk, Gulyaypolsky, Orikhiv, and Siversk. WarGonzo reports "tactical successes" near Orikhove and capture of Zarya, and repeat claims of reaching Dnipropetrovsk border. This demonstrates sustained ground combat capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Intentions:
    • Sustained Overwhelming Retaliation and Deterrence (Active Execution at Maximum Scale, Expanding Targets West & South): The ongoing strategic strike, featuring "Kinzhal" and multiple ballistic/cruise waves, is intended to inflict maximum damage on Ukrainian critical infrastructure and urban centers, serving as severe retaliation for recent deep strikes and to deter further Ukrainian cross-border or deep-rear operations. The successive waves and the shift to Western targets (Zhytomyr, Rivne, Dubno) and now a new cruise missile threat to Odesa, indicate intent to sustain overwhelming pressure and break AD across a wider area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Psychological Demoralization and Panic (Active Execution, Deepening Dehumanization & Threat): The explicit propaganda messaging accompanying the missile launches, now including direct threats (Rivne mockery, Volyn query, "final solution to Rivne question," "imaginary missiles" counter-IO, "cast iron supply," "nothing in Odesa"), and the deepening dehumanization ("chubaty al-Qaeda," "model Khokhol") is aimed at inducing widespread fear and panic and undermining trust. The attempts to dismiss Ukrainian warnings ("imaginary missiles," "nothing happening in Odesa") are part of this. The renewed focus on the Greta Thunberg/Israel narrative serves as a distraction to redirect attention from the war. Exaggerated claims of Ukrainian losses (230 personnel, 6 Starlinks, 4,800 in LPR) aim to demoralize. The new claims of a "large grouping of AFU" being "blocked" near Poddubny (previously Komar), Dnipropetrovsk border, and now a bridge blown up near Komar, are direct, aggressive, and likely false, expansions of the Dnipropetrovsk offensive narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Courses of Action (COA):
    • MLCOA 1 (Confirmed & Actively Executing at Maximum Scale with Hypersonic/Ballistic/Cruise Escalation & WESTWARD/SOUTHERN SHIFT, and Sustained Ground Pressure): Immediate, Massive, Diversified Strategic Missile Attack Targeting Critical Infrastructure and Urban Centers, Coordinated with Ground Pressure and Deepening Deception Operations, now featuring hypersonic, ballistic, and cruise missiles in successive waves, with active counter-IO against Ukrainian warnings, and an expanded geographic scope to include Western Ukrainian targets (Zhytomyr, Rivne, Dubno) and Southern targets (Odesa). Russia is currently launching a mass-scale strategic missile assault, leveraging MiG-31K (Kinzhal), multiple, successive waves of ground-launched ballistic missiles (Iskanders) from Bryansk and Kursk (targeting Kyiv/Chernihiv and now confirmed Zhytomyr and Rivne/Dubno), cruise missiles from Bryansk/Kursk, 5 Tu-95MS bombers from Olenya (launched Kh-101/555), AND 4 Tu-22M3 bombers from Engels-2 (launched Kh-22s towards coastal areas). This follows initial saturation with Shaheds and active Kh-31P SEAD attempts. This attack is targeting Kyiv (confirmed damage in Darnytskyi, now facing multiple waves), Kharkiv ("cast iron supply"), Poltava (power line damage), Chernihiv (explosions confirmed), Rivne (explosions confirmed, Dubno under Shahed attack and confirmed missile target, "very difficult night" confirmed by OVA), Dnipro, Odesa (new cruise missile threat), Zhytomyr (missiles now confirmed over Northern Kyiv Oblast and moving to Zhytomyr Oblast, then further West), Kremenchuk, Zaporizhzhia (new air raid alert, confirmed casualty), Ternopil, Cherkasy, and other key urban centers/infrastructure, with high probability of prioritizing energy and water infrastructure, military-industrial targets, and potentially coastal/port infrastructure. Concurrently, KAB strikes on Kharkiv will continue to support ground advances or create urban destruction, as evidenced by TASS video. On the ground, attritional assaults on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk direction) and other fronts (Kursk, Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretskyi, Kramatorsk, Gulyaypolsky, Orikhiv, Siversk) will persist. Russian IO will intensify their "Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough" narrative, reinforced by high-level political statements, and now including claims of "blocking" AFU near Poddubny and AFU blowing up a bridge near Komar, and will continue tactical deception (e.g., "Chernihiv not needed," now direct questions about Volyn, mocking Rivne and threatening its "final solution," asking about Dubno, claiming "imaginary missiles," "nothing happening in Odesa") while overtly promoting the scale of the incoming missile strike. Critically, Russia will actively attempt to undermine Ukrainian air raid warnings by claiming "imaginary missiles" or "EW game." Russian propaganda will also actively work to undermine Zelensky's legitimacy, fuel anti-NATO sentiment, spread highly damaging social disinformation, and attempt to distract with irrelevant Western political news (Greta Thunberg, US politics, internal arrests, Okinawa airbase explosion, economic data, NATO reduction calls). The new dehumanizing rhetoric and direct threats will intensify, along with claims of high Ukrainian losses (230 personnel, 6 Starlinks, 4,800 in LPR), and claims of high Ukrainian UAV losses over Russia (49). Russia will also attempt to control the cyber narrative and amplify claims of Ukrainian equipment losses (Abrams). Russian forces will continue to use and promote new drone capabilities for cargo and bombing (S-80) and precision strikes (fiber optic drones with thermal cameras).
      • Confidence: HIGH (Confirmed continued ballistic/cruise missile launches in waves, ongoing Kinzhal threat, confirmed strategic bomber activity, with increased numbers, active Shahed/KAB activity and documented tactical successes, confirmed impacts across a widening AOR, escalating Dnipropetrovsk IO now with high-level political backing and new specific claims, new, specific social disinformation, and confirmed new wave of aerial assets indicated, are directly in line with this combined COA, now at maximum observed intensity for air attack, with sustained multi-wave targeting, active counter-IO, and confirmed westward and now southern expansion of strike focus. Claims of high Ukrainian losses are consistent with Russian propaganda patterns. New information confirming the Cheboksary factory produces anti-EW equipment for drones highlights a significant Ukrainian deep strike success and confirms Russia's efforts to protect its UAVs, which will be further weaponized by Russia's IO. New details from captured POW corroborate specific Russian TTPs on the ground, including human wave assaults and poor personnel treatment. General Staff reports confirm continued ground pressure on multiple axes. WarGonzo updates confirm continued claims of ground advances. ASTRA claim regarding Okinawa is consistent with distraction tactics).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

  • Sustained Multi-Wave Ballistic/Cruise Missile Attacks Targeting Western and Southern Ukraine: The repeated launches of ballistic and now cruise missiles from Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts in rapid succession, with a confirmed shift in trajectory to Zhytomyr and Rivne (Dubno), and now a new cruise missile threat to Odesa, indicates a tactical adaptation to overwhelm AD across a broader front, including Western and Southern Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Russian Counter-IO against Air Warnings: The explicit Russian milblogger attempts to dismiss Ukrainian air raid warnings as "imaginary" or an "EW game," and claiming "nothing is happening in Odesa," represents a new and dangerous tactical adaptation in their information warfare, aiming to reduce public adherence to warnings and thus increase casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • New Ground Deception (Dnipropetrovsk Specificity): The new TASS claim of a portion of AFU being "destroyed" in Poddubny on the DPR border, and WarGonzo's specific claims of Orikhove tactical successes and reaching Dnipropetrovsk border, represent an ongoing and escalating attempt to create false narratives of ground breakthroughs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • New Distraction Tactics (Okinawa, etc.): ASTRA's claims regarding an incident at Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, represent a new attempt at global distraction or to sow discord regarding US military presence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

  • Strategic Missile & UAV Supply: The sustained, multi-wave launches from MiG-31K, multiple ballistic missile batteries, and strategic bombers indicates Russia retains significant stockpiles of "Kinzhal," ballistic missiles (Iskander), strategic cruise missiles (Kh-101, Kh-555, Kh-22/32), and UAVs for a prolonged, high-intensity aerial campaign. This suggests a higher inventory than previously assessed for high-value assets like Kinzhal and Iskander, or a willingness to deplete them rapidly. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Information Warfare Capacity: The rapid generation and dissemination of new, specific disinformation, distraction tactics (including new focus on Greta Thunberg/Israel and Okinawa airbase incident), and direct threats, and the aggressive, pre-emptive psychological operations around the strategic strikes, including efforts to counter Ukrainian AD warnings, indicate a highly agile and resourced IO apparatus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

  • Russian C2: The synchronized multi-domain strikes (Shaheds, KABs, strategic cruise missiles from multiple platforms, hypersonic "Kinzhal," multiple, successive waves of ballistic/cruise missiles from multiple ground launchers now targeting a wider geographic area, including Western and Southern Ukraine) and rapid, coordinated IO campaigns demonstrating effective, centralized Russian C2. The immediate amplification of the Dnipropetrovsk narrative by TASS and high-level political figures, and the dissemination of specific social disinformation confirms high-level C2 over IO. The coordinated efforts to undermine Ukrainian AD warnings further indicate robust C2 over IO. The immediate reporting of claimed Ukrainian losses by "West" grouping further demonstrates effective C2 and rapid dissemination of information for propaganda purposes. Putin's approval of the new Naval strategy indicates long-term strategic C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Ukrainian C2: Ukrainian authorities' rapid public warnings and AD responses continue to demonstrate effective C2 for public safety and military readiness, but are severely tested by the anticipated strategic strike of this magnitude, now including sustained hypersonic and ballistic threats across multiple waves and coordinated IO to induce complacency. The prompt reporting by Rivne OVA and Cherkasy OVA despite impacts shows resilient C2. The successful operation involving the capture of a Russian POW, with subsequent intelligence gathering and potential dissemination, indicates effective C2 for intelligence and special operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The prompt reporting of Zaporizhzhia air raid all-clear and Kharkiv Oblast damage reports indicates effective local and central C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

  • Air Defense: On HIGHEST alert, currently engaged against Shaheds and now responding to successive waves of ballistic/cruise missiles from Bryansk/Kursk, in addition to the ongoing threat from strategic cruise missiles and Kinzhals, with a confirmed westward shift to Zhytomyr and Rivne (Dubno) Oblasts, and a new threat to Odesa. The "all clear" for UAVs suggests a successful end to that specific threat wave. All AD assets are likely at maximum readiness and dispersal protocols are critical, with systems now stretched across an even wider geographic area, including central, western and southern Ukraine. The ballistic/cruise missile threat from the North (Bryansk/Kursk) and South (previous intelligence) requires specific, heightened AD preparedness. The explicit Russian counter-IO to dismiss warnings necessitates even greater vigilance and public communication to reinforce warning adherence. The statement from Rivne OVA confirms the severity of the ongoing aerial attacks but also highlights successful AD engagements ("destroyed a large number of enemy targets"). Zaporizhzhia air raid alert has been stood down, requiring ongoing readiness in that sector. Confirmed widespread strikes across 8+ Ukrainian oblasts indicate the challenge to AD. Successful interception of 6 UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and 33 UAVs over Cherkasy Oblast. Poland's scramble of fighter jets reinforces the severity of the air situation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Ground Forces: Maintaining defensive integrity. The escalating Dnipropetrovsk IO, now validated by high-level Russian political figures and new claims of "blocking" AFU near Poddubny and a bridge blown near Komar, and now "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny," continues to create psychological pressure and potential for misdirection, demanding continued vigilance. Ukrainian forces are demonstrating high proficiency in drone warfare, combined arms tactics (drones and mortars), and strong defensive positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). General Staff reports confirm defensive posture and repelling of attacks on multiple axes. BUTUSOV PLUS video shows effective drone work by 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade pilots leading to Russian surrender. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Information Defense: Actively monitoring and countering Russian disinformation, but the volume and increasing specificity of Russian claims (e.g., Dnipropetrovsk amplified by TASS and Klishas, "debt collector" narrative, "educating chubaty al-Qaeda," "cast iron supply to Kharkiv," new claim of "blocking" AFU near Poddubny, Komar bridge claim, "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny"), direct threats (Rivne, Volyn query, "final solution to Rivne," questioning Dubno's status, "nothing in Odesa"), and the overt psychological warfare accompanying the missile strikes, including direct attempts to undermine AD warnings, require rapid, robust counter-narratives and verification. The new distraction tactics like the Greta Thunberg/Israel narrative, economic data, NATO reduction calls, Ryabkov's statements on US relations, and the claims of high Ukrainian losses and Okinawa airbase incident also require monitoring and refutation. The captured POW testimony provides valuable counter-propaganda material regarding Russian TTPs and treatment of personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

  • Successes:
    • UAV Threat Neutralized (Current Wave for some areas): Ukrainian Air Force reporting "all clear" for UAV threat indicates successful neutralization or cessation of the Shahed wave. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR official source). Successful destruction of 6 UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and 33 UAVs over Cherkasy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Effective Drone Operations: BUTUSOV PLUS video confirms effective drone work by pilots of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, successfully targeting Russian personnel and forcing a surrender. This highlights continued Ukrainian tactical proficiency. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Ballistic/Cruise Missile Interception: Rivne OVA confirms AD destroyed "a large number of enemy targets." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Setbacks:
    • Strategic Missile Penetration (Kyiv & Western/Southern Ukraine): Confirmed damage to an office building in Kyiv's Darnytskyi district and explosions in Chernihiv. Missiles are now extending threat to Zhytomyr and further West into Rivne Oblast (Dubno), with Russian milbloggers claiming success in Dubno, and a new cruise missile threat to Odesa, indicating successful penetration of AD across a wider geographic area. The multi-wave attack on Kyiv is particularly concerning. The "very difficult night" for Rivne confirms significant impact and one civilian casualty. A 23-year-old civilian male was wounded in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Power line damage in Poltava Oblast from UAV debris. Confirmed explosions/strikes across Kyiv, Ternopil, Rivne, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Donetsk Oblasts highlight widespread successful penetration. Cherkasy Oblast sustained damage from UAV debris. Kharkiv Oblast reports strikes on 9 settlements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Sustained Strategic Missile Threat (Active, Widespread, Hypersonic/Ballistic/Cruise, Multi-Wave, Westward/Southern Shift): The confirmed takeoff of 9 strategic bombers (5x Tu-95MS, 4x Tu-22M3, with Tu-22M3s having launched and returning, and Tu-95MS now launching Kh-101/555), PLUS active MiG-31K with "Kinzhal" and multiple, successive waves of ground-launched ballistic missiles (Iskanders) and cruise missiles from Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts, now explicitly targeting Zhytomyr and Rivne (Dubno) and Odesa represents a critical and immediate threat of widespread destruction and potential casualties. Confirmed impacts in Kyiv, Rivne, Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv, Ternopil, Cherkasy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk highlight this active threat. The speed and trajectory of "Kinzhal" and ballistic/cruise missiles severely reduce warning times. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Sophisticated Psychological Pressure (Escalated & Politically Backed, with Direct Threats & Mockery, and Counter-Warning IO, and New Ground Deception): The escalating and highly specific disinformation regarding a Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough (now amplified by TASS citing fake "The Times" and by high-level political figures, and a new claim of "blocking" AFU near Poddubny, Komar bridge claim, and "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny"), the overt pre-strike propaganda and post-strike mockery ("Rovno getting crooked," "What about Volyn?", and "final solution to Rivne question," "Dubno was normal?"), and the deepening dehumanization ("chubaty al-Qaeda," "model Khokhol") poses a significant risk of internal confusion, panic, or misallocation of resources. The explicit attempt to dismiss Ukrainian air raid warnings as "imaginary" or "EW game," and claiming "nothing is happening in Odesa," is a dangerous new escalation. Exaggerated claims of Ukrainian losses (230 personnel, 6 Starlinks, 4,800 in LPR, 49 UAVs over Russia) contribute to this pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

  • Air Defense Munitions: The incoming large-scale strategic missile attack from multiple platforms, including hypersonic, ballistic, and cruise missiles in successive waves, now extending to Western and Southern Ukraine, will place unprecedented, critical strain on AD munition stockpiles, particularly for systems capable of intercepting advanced threats. URGENT international resupply remains paramount, as this attack will deplete significant inventories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • ISR for Disinformation Verification: Increased ISR is critical to rapidly and definitively verify or refute Russian ground claims, especially for the Dnipropetrovsk axis (now with Poddubny/Komar claims), and to counter new social disinformation, to prevent costly redeployments or panic. This includes verifying Russian claims of high Ukrainian losses and Starlink destruction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

  • Russian Propaganda - Offensive and Psychological Warfare (Escalated, Active, and Politically Backed, with Direct Threats, Mockery, Anti-Warning IO, and New Ground Deception, WESTWARD/SOUTHERN SHIFT):
    • "Massive Strike" Promotion & Dehumanization (Active & Sustained): Russian milbloggers (НгП раZVедка, Два майора, Operatsiya Z) are overtly advertising the incoming strike, now claiming "second, third, fourth waves" on Kyiv as "educational measures," and using dehumanizing language ("iTarasys don't understand," "chubaty al-Qaeda," "model Khokhol"), aiming to maximize pre-impact terror and demoralization while justifying the attacks. They are confirming "Kinzhal" and Iskander strikes. They are also now directly asking "Was Dubno a normal city at all?" and stating "Apparently, not really," confirming perceived success in Western Ukraine, and explicitly claiming "another 10 reparations flying to Dubno." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Dnevnik Desantnika claims a strike on Dubno airbase. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). They also use cynical references like "VKS has established a supply of cast iron to Kharkiv." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Dnipropetrovsk Amplification (Active & Politically Backed, New Ground Claim): TASS citing a (likely fabricated) "The Times" article to support the Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough narrative, directly supported by high-level political figures, remains active. New TASS claim of "large grouping of AFU blocked in Poddubny" on Dnipropetrovsk border, and now "AFU blew up bridge near Komar" to avoid fire, and "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny" are dangerous escalations of this false narrative, intended to create panic and misdirect forces. WarGonzo's photo message "Now you are in Russia!" could be related to these claims. WarGonzo reports "tactical successes" near Orikhove and claims of reaching Dnipropetrovsk border. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Tactical Deception/Mockery & Anti-Warning IO (Active & Adaptive): The "Rovno is getting more and more crooked," "What about Volyn?", and "final solution to Rivne question" statements, following previous "Rivne/Chernihiv not needed," are clear attempts to misdirect Ukrainian AD or create false security while mocking successful strikes. "All drones shot down/suppressed" is clear overblown propaganda. Crucially, the explicit attempt to dismiss Ukrainian AD warnings as "imaginary" or "EW game," and claiming "nothing is happening in Odesa," represents a dangerous new form of information warfare aimed at inducing complacency and increasing casualties. The claim that "Geraniums became few" is similar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Distraction Propaganda (Okinawa, etc.): ASTRA reporting on the Okinawa airbase incident is a new distraction/deflection tactic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Ukrainian Information Operations - Transparency and Counter-Disinformation:
    • Timely Threat Warnings: Consistent and prompt warnings from Ukrainian authorities (e.g., KCMVA, Air Force, local officials, like Rivne OVA, Zaporizhzhia OVA, Dnipropetrovsk OVA, Poltava OVA, Cherkasy OVA) regarding air threats maintain public trust and facilitate preparedness. The "all clear" for UAVs and ballistic threats is also important for public morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Direct Refutation of Disinformation (Ongoing Requirement & Elevated Urgency): Continued, aggressive refutation of Russian claims, especially the Dnipropetrovsk narrative (now with the added TASS/Klishas and Poddubny/Komar claims, and "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny"), the "debt collector" narrative, the dehumanizing rhetoric, and direct threats/mockery, and especially the attempts to dismiss air raid warnings and denials of threats to specific cities like Odesa, is vital. This also includes refuting exaggerated claims of Ukrainian losses (personnel, Starlinks, UAVs). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Showcasing Russian Brutality/Drone Effectiveness: BUTUSOV PLUS video of a Russian soldier surrendering after a drone strike on his comrade provides highly credible and impactful material for international and domestic information campaigns to expose Russian military practices (leaving wounded, human wave assaults) and demonstrate Ukrainian drone effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

  • Negative Impact (UKR - SIGNIFICANTLY Escalated): The immediate threat of a major strategic missile attack from an unprecedented number of platforms, including hypersonic, ballistic, and cruise missiles in successive waves, confirmed impacts in Kyiv, Rivne (Dubno) (with civilian casualty), Sumy, Poltava (power line damage), Chernihiv, Ternopil, Cherkasy (UAV debris damage), Kharkiv (strikes on 9 settlements), Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia (with civilian casualty), continued drone/KAB strikes, and the aggressively amplified Dnipropetrovsk disinformation campaign (now with high-level political backing and new, insidious social disinformation and direct threats/mockery and new ground claims) will significantly heighten anxiety and psychological stress. The overt Russian pre-strike propaganda and dehumanizing rhetoric will amplify this. The "debt collector" narrative specifically targets internal cohesion and trust. Claims of Abrams losses and videos of captured Ukrainian POWs will undermine confidence. The specific Russian counter-IO to dismiss air raid warnings as "imaginary" or an "EW game" could lead to dangerous complacency if not effectively countered, directly endangering civilian lives and undermining trust in official warnings. Exaggerated claims of Ukrainian losses (personnel, Starlinks, UAVs) aim to demoralize. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Positive Impact (UKR): Timely warnings and effective AD responses (e.g., ballistic missile interception, Shahed shootdowns, large number of targets destroyed in Rivne, 6 UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk, 33 UAVs over Cherkasy, "all clear" for UAVs and ballistic threats), where successful, help to maintain a sense of resilience and trust. Continued Ukrainian deep strikes into Russia (e.g., Cheboksary with specific attribution and video, and confirmed production suspension at a military-industrial facility, Voronezh gas pipeline damage, Nizhny Novgorod/Voronezh airbases, Tambov) provide a morale boost and demonstrate Ukraine's retaliatory capabilities. The successful deterrence of Kalibr carriers in Black/Azov Seas is a positive for public sentiment. The captured Russian POW testimony provides valuable evidence of Russian military failures and mistreatment of their own soldiers, which can be leveraged for morale-boosting and counter-propaganda efforts. Poland's active response with fighter jet scrambles and AD activation provides a strong signal of NATO readiness and support. General Staff's detailed morning report highlights successful defensive actions, reinforcing morale. BUTUSOV PLUS video showing effective drone work and a Russian surrender is a significant morale booster. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Impact (RU): Russian propaganda aims to bolster domestic morale by justifying their actions, claiming battlefield successes (Dnipropetrovsk, Poddubny, Komar, Orikhove, Zarya), highlighting perceived Western division, and demonstrating perceived overwhelming force. News of internal drone attacks and fires (e.g., Cheboksary, confirmed production suspension, Voronezh gas pipeline damage, Nizhny Novgorod/Voronezh airbases, Tambov) and high-profile arrests (Krasnoyarsk mayor, Michael Naki) may cause some internal concern, which Russian state media attempts to offset with distraction propaganda (Greta Thunberg, economic data, internal crime reports, Okinawa airbase incident, Los Angeles protests) and now counter-IO on cyberattacks and by tightening internal security measures, and claiming high Ukrainian losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

  • The severity and scale of the incoming missile strike (MiG-31K, multiple, successive ballistic/cruise launches, 9 strategic bombers active, confirmed impacts across multiple oblasts, now explicitly extending to Western and Southern Ukraine) may galvanize further international support or increase pressure on Western partners to expedite aid, particularly AD munitions, beyond previous commitments. This level of attack is a clear demonstration of Russian intent to escalate and disregard for civilian casualties. Poland's direct response (fighter jet scramble, AD activation) is a tangible signal of NATO's concern and readiness, which could put further diplomatic pressure on Russia and reinforce international solidarity with Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Russian attempts to sow discord by citing "Western" sources or manipulate narratives (e.g., POW bodies in Italy, "Senator-Trumpist" quotes, "debt collectors," Trump/Rubio stumbling, Greta Thunberg, internal arrests, Michael Naki fine, economic data, NATO reduction calls, Ryabkov's statements on US relations/arms control, Okinawa airbase incident, Los Angeles protests) indicates an intent to erode international solidarity and influence Western political landscapes. New TASS reports on entry restrictions for Ukrainians and the proposed law against "insulting Russia" will likely be perceived negatively by international human rights groups. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

  • MLCOA 1: IMMEDIATE, MAX-SCALE, AND DIVERSIFIED STRATEGIC MISSILE ATTACK FEATURING HYPERSONIC, BALLISTIC, AND CRUISE MISSILES IN SUSTAINED WAVES, TARGETING CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND URBAN CENTERS, WITH A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD AND SOUTHERN SHIFT, COORDINATED WITH GROUND PRESSURE AND EXPLICIT DECEPTION OPERATIONS (ONGOING), NOW WITH ACTIVE ANTI-WARNING INFORMATION WARFARE AND EXAGGERATED CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN ATTRITION. Russia is currently executing a large-scale strategic missile assault, leveraging MiG-31K (Kinzhal), multiple, successive waves of ground-launched ballistic missiles (Iskanders) from Bryansk and Kursk (targeting Kyiv/Chernihiv, and now confirmed Zhytomyr and Rivne/Dubno), cruise missiles from Bryansk/Kursk (now over Chernihiv, moving to Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Rivne, and Dubno, and a new threat to Odesa), and 5 Tu-95MS bombers from Olenya (launched Kh-101/555) and 4 Tu-22M3 bombers from Engels-2 (launched Kh-22s towards coastal areas). This follows initial saturation with Shaheds (confirmed impacts in Rivne, Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv) and active Kh-31P SEAD attempts. This attack is targeting Kyiv (confirmed damage in Darnytskyi, now facing multiple waves), Kharkiv ("cast iron supply"), Poltava (power line damage from UAV debris), Chernihiv (explosions confirmed), Rivne (explosions confirmed, Dubno under Shahed attack and direct missile threat, "very difficult night" confirmed by OVA), Dnipro, Odesa (new cruise missile threat), Zhytomyr (missiles now confirmed over Northern Kyiv Oblast and moving to Zhytomyr Oblast, then further West), Kremenchuk, Zaporizhzhia (new air raid alert, confirmed casualty), Ternopil, Cherkasy (UAV debris damage), and other major urban centers/infrastructure, with high probability of prioritizing energy and water infrastructure, military-industrial targets, and potentially coastal/port infrastructure. Concurrently, KAB strikes on Kharkiv will continue to support ground advances or create urban destruction, as evidenced by TASS footage. On the ground, attritional assaults on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk) and other fronts (Kursk, Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretskyi, Kramatorsk, Gulyaypolsky, Orikhiv, Siversk) will persist. The information campaign will aggressively amplify the fabricated "Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough," now using the false credibility of (fabricated) Western media citations and direct political backing from high-level Russian officials, and a new claim of "blocking" AFU near Poddubny village and AFU blowing up a bridge near Komar, and "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny". Concurrently, Russia will continue tactical deception (e.g., "Chernihiv not needed," new queries on Volyn, mocking Rivne and threatening its "final solution," questioning Dubno's status, "nothing happening in Odesa," false claims of drone suppression) and overt mockery to compel Ukrainian redeployments and induce panic across the civilian population and military. A new, dangerous element will be the active dissemination of disinformation to undermine Ukrainian air raid warnings, claiming that missiles are "imaginary" or that warnings are an "EW game." New propaganda efforts will specifically target Western support by portraying Zelensky as a "dictator" luring NATO into war, and will spread new, damaging social disinformation while attempting to distract with irrelevant Western political news (Greta Thunberg, Trump/Rubio, internal arrests, Michael Naki fine, Los Angeles protests, economic data, NATO reduction calls, Ryabkov's statements on US relations, Okinawa airbase incident). The new dehumanizing rhetoric and direct threats to specific cities (Rivne mockery, Volyn query, questioning Dubno's status) will intensify. Russia will also actively attempt to control the cyber narrative and amplify claims of Ukrainian equipment losses (Abrams) and showcase captured Ukrainian POWs, as well as significantly exaggerated claims of Ukrainian personnel, Starlink, and their own UAV losses. Russian forces will continue to use and promote new drone capabilities for cargo and bombing (S-80) and precision strikes (fiber optic drones with thermal cameras). Ground tactics will continue to include human wave assaults with disregard for personnel, as evidenced by POW testimony. Putin's approval of the new Naval strategy will be used for long-term power projection messaging.
    • Confidence: HIGH (Confirmed ongoing ballistic/cruise missile launches in successive waves, ongoing Kinzhal threat, confirmed strategic bomber activity, with increased numbers (total 9), ongoing Shahed/KAB activity and documented tactical successes, confirmed direct impacts across a widening AOR, escalating, explicit Russian IO directly supported by high-level political figures, the introduction of new, highly specific social disinformation, direct threats, and distraction tactics, and a new wave of aerial assets indicated, along with specific counter-IO against Ukrainian warnings and claims of high Ukrainian losses. This is the most intense observed air attack threat in many months, now actively unfolding in sustained waves, with clear westward and now southern expansion of strike targeting. New POW testimony corroborates critical tactical details. General Staff reports confirm continued ground pressure on multiple axes. WarGonzo updates confirm continued claims of ground advances. ASTRA claim regarding Okinawa is consistent with distraction tactics. BUTUSOV PLUS video confirms Ukrainian drone effectiveness).
    • Indicators: Widespread and prolonged air alarms, particularly in Western and Southern Ukraine; multiple missile launches reported from various platforms (air, ground); severe impacts in Ukrainian cities across multiple oblasts, particularly on infrastructure; further Russian milblogger reports on "advances" or "awards" in Dnipropetrovsk, specifically claims of "blocking" AFU near Poddubny or AFU blowing up a bridge near Komar, or "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny"; continued claims of POW captures or Russian "successes" on the ground (e.g., specific BDA on claimed military targets in Kharkiv); increased social media rumors and panic related to new disinformation narratives; Russian milblogger posts explicitly dismissing Ukrainian air raid warnings as false or an "EW game," and denying missile threats to specific cities; persistent claims of high Ukrainian losses (personnel, Starlinks, UAVs). Continued use of "Storm" units in ground assaults. Polish aviation scrambling.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

  • MDCOA 1: STRATEGIC DECAPITATION AND OPERATIONAL BREAKTHROUGH ENABLED BY EW OVERMATCH AND REAL-TIME IO. Russia conducts an unprecedented, multi-day, multi-wave strategic missile and drone assault from all available long-range aviation platforms (Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3, Tu-160) and ground-launched ballistic/cruise missiles, including sustained use of "Kinzhal" and other hypersonic/ballistic assets, designed to systematically target and degrade Ukrainian C2 nodes (military and government), critical energy infrastructure, and key logistics hubs, aiming for functional decapitation or severe disruption. This mass strike would be coordinated with a surprise, rapid, and large-scale ground offensive on the Dnipropetrovsk axis, leveraging a significant operational-level force (e.g., multiple divisions, including the 90th Tank Division) from a previously static or lower-priority sector. This ground push would be supported by intense, broad-spectrum electronic warfare (EW) to blind Ukrainian ISR, disrupt military communications at all levels, and jam civilian networks, combined with a real-time, devastating psychological operations campaign (e.g., "Kyiv has fallen," "command has fled," "missiles are imaginary," "total Ukrainian losses") to induce mass civilian panic and military collapse, attempting to force a major, uncoordinated Ukrainian retreat.
    • Confidence: MEDIUM (The current escalating IO around Dnipropetrovsk and the confirmed strategic bomber activity now including Kinzhal and multiple ballistic/cruise waves, with westward/southern expansion directly feed into elements of this MDCOA. The addition of these advanced missile types and the increased number of bombers overall significantly increases the destructive potential. The active Russian counter-IO to undermine AD warnings further increases the danger. The temporary suspension of production at the "VNIIR-Progress" factory due to Ukrainian strikes could indicate a significant blow to Russia's EW-resistant drone capabilities, which might impact their ability to fully execute the EW overmatch component of this MDCOA in the short term, but also indicates their efforts in this domain. The uncertainty remains in Russia's true capability for such a massive, integrated ground force breakthrough, particularly under a broad EW umbrella, and their willingness to commit such resources after AD suppression, and their ability to maintain such an intense air campaign for multiple days.) The new specific claim of "blocking" AFU near Poddubny and the Komar bridge claim, and "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny," directly push the Dnipropetrovsk ground threat.
    • Indicators: Sustained multi-day, high-intensity missile/drone attacks; direct targeting of top-tier Ukrainian C2 nodes; simultaneous, rapid, deep penetrations by multiple Russian BTGs/regiments/brigades into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast; widespread and persistent communications outages affecting Ukrainian military and civilian networks; explicit Russian demands for surrender/negotiation from a position of perceived strength; mass internal displacement within Ukraine.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

  • Next 0-3 Hours (IMMEDIATE - CRITICAL IMPACT WINDOW / IMMEDIATE AFTERMATH):

    • Strategic Missile Strikes: Impact of missiles launched by MiG-31K (Kinzhal), multiple, successive waves of ballistic/cruise missiles from Bryansk and Kursk (now confirmed heading for Zhytomyr, Rivne, and Dubno), and previous launches by 5 Tu-95MS bombers from Olenya and 4 Tu-22M3 bombers from Engels-2 is IMMINENT/ONGOING for some areas, or in immediate aftermath for others. A new cruise missile threat to Odesa is active. Targeting will likely include Kyiv (confirmed damage in Darnytskyi, now facing multiple waves), Kharkiv, Poltava (confirmed power line damage), Chernihiv (explosions), Rivne (explosions, Dubno under Shahed attack and direct missile threat, "very difficult night" confirmed), Dnipro, Odesa (new threat), Zhytomyr (now confirmed missile direction), Kremenchuk/Svetlovodsk, Zaporizhzhia (air raid stood down, confirmed casualty), Ternopil, Cherkasy (UAV debris damage), and other major urban centers/critical infrastructure. Specific focus on energy infrastructure and coastal/port targets is highly probable, with active SEAD against coastal AD.
    • Shahed/KAB Threat: Continuation of intense Shahed activity (though Air Force reports "all clear" for current wave), with persistent KAB strikes on Kharkiv and other ground targets. Impacts in Rivne, Sumy, and Poltava, Chernihiv confirm the active threat. Cherkasy OVA reports 33 UAVs shot down. Russia will continue to attempt to deceive regarding the end of drone waves.
    • Information Environment: Expect rapid acceleration of Russian propaganda (Dnipropetrovsk narrative now citing "The Times" and high-level political figures, new claim of "blocking" AFU near Poddubny, AFU blowing up a bridge near Komar, and "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny", "ammo supply" mockery, tactical deception like "Rivne not needed," "Chernihiv not needed," "drones ending soon," new dehumanizing rhetoric, Trump/Rubio/Greta Thunberg/economic data/NATO calls/Okinawa airbase incident/Los Angeles protests distraction, internal arrests, Michael Naki fine, direct threats to cities, mocking references to Ukrainian AD, and explicitly denying missile threats as "imaginary" or "EW game," claims about Dubno status, and denying threats to Odesa) concurrent with or immediately following missile impacts, emphasizing the "success" and "retaliation." New anti-Zelensky/anti-NATO propaganda and highly damaging social disinformation will spread. Russia will also actively attempt to control the cyber narrative and amplify claims of Ukrainian equipment losses (Abrams) and showcase captured Ukrainian POWs, alongside exaggerated claims of personnel, Starlink, and their own UAV losses. TASS will continue to disseminate BDA of destroyed vehicles. ASTRA will continue with distraction claims (Okinawa).
    • Ground Activity: Continued attritional assaults on Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk) and other active fronts (Kursk, Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretskyi, Kramatorsk, Gulyaypolsky, Orikhiv, Siversk), supported by KABs and drone strikes. High potential for a test or reconnaissance-in-force on the Dnipropetrovsk axis to gauge Ukrainian response to the escalating IO and new ground claims, even if a full breakthrough is not imminent.
    • Decision Points (UKR):
      • IMMEDIATE (ongoing): All AD assets to maximum readiness and dispersal protocols for incoming strategic missile strike from multiple platforms (Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3, MiG-31K, ballistic missile launchers, cruise missile launchers from Bryansk/Kursk), especially for newly targeted Western Oblasts (Zhytomyr, Rivne, Dubno) and Southern Oblast (Odesa), and Zaporizhzhia. Prioritize protection of C2 nodes, critical energy infrastructure, and major urban centers, with specific attention to SEAD attempts against AD systems. This is the most critical immediate task, requiring focus on the highest-speed threats and multi-wave engagements across a widening area, now including Zhytomyr Oblast, further West, and Odesa.
      • IMMEDIATE: Rapid and aggressive counter-IO on the "Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough" narrative, particularly the fabricated "The Times" citations and the high-level political statements, the new claim of "blocking" AFU near Poddubny, the Komar bridge claim, and "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny," the "ammo supply" claims, the "drones ending soon" deception, the new "debt collector" narrative, the dehumanizing rhetoric, and direct threats/mockery (Rivne/Volyn/Dubno/Odesa). Issue official statements debunking false claims and providing accurate information. URGENTLY counter Russian narratives dismissing missile threats as "imaginary" or "EW game" or "nothing is happening in Odesa"; emphasize the real and immediate danger and the necessity of adhering to warnings. Task ISR for immediate verification or denial of Russian force presence in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast beyond the current line of contact. Prepare contingency plans for a potential actual ground push on this axis, even if small-scale.
      • URGENT: Disseminate counter-PSYOPS messages to address the disinformation regarding POW bodies, captured Ukrainian POW videos, and other psychological intimidation tactics, and critically, the overt Russian propaganda regarding the incoming strike, tactical deception, anti-Zelensky/anti-NATO narratives, the new social disinformation aimed at internal divisions, and the new distraction propaganda (including Greta Thunberg/Israel narrative, economic data, NATO calls, Okinawa airbase incident, Los Angeles protests). Specifically address the exaggerated claims of Ukrainian personnel, Starlink, and UAV losses. Leverage captured Russian POW testimony (Andrey Gorbatenko) to expose Russian military brutality and undermine their domestic morale, including orders to kill wounded and forced participation in "Storm" battalions. Reinforce national resilience and preparedness.
      • URGENT: Reinforce communication channels and protocols to ensure resilience against potential EW or network saturation during mass attacks.
      • URGENT: Prioritize SIGINT/ELINT on Russian strategic aviation and EW systems to detect further missile launches or shifts in attack vectors. Maintain high vigilance on ground axes for any signs of massing reserves consistent with MDCOA, particularly on the Dnipropetrovsk axis.

  • Next 3-24 Hours (Short Term):

    • Post-Strike Assessment: Evaluate damage, casualties, and impact on critical infrastructure from the strategic missile strike, particularly in Western and Southern Ukraine.
    • Russian Reaction: Monitor for immediate Russian claims of "successful strikes" or "retaliation" across multiple channels. Expect further political statements reinforcing the "denazification" narrative and other IO. Expect continued counter-IO efforts to undermine Ukrainian warnings and successes, including further exaggerated claims of Ukrainian losses and new ground claims (Poddubny, Komar).
    • Ukrainian Recovery/Response: Initiate rapid recovery efforts. Continue active defense on all ground axes as reported by General Staff.
    • Intelligence Gap: Full BDA on the impact of the strategic missile strike. Confirmation of the Dnipropetrovsk ground situation. Russian next steps if initial strategic strike results in less than desired effects.

  • Next 24-72 Hours (Medium Term):

    • Sustained Pressure: Russia will likely sustain aerial pressure (Shaheds, KABs) to hinder recovery efforts and maintain psychological pressure, potentially in further waves if initial effects are deemed insufficient.
    • Ground Offensive: Russian ground offensive on Donetsk and possibly Sumy axis will continue as detailed in General Staff reports. The intensity of any push on Dnipropetrovsk will clarify if the IO was solely a feint or a precursor.
    • Information Warfare: Continued Russian efforts to exploit any perceived Ukrainian weaknesses or Western divisions, and to undermine trust in official information.

  • Intelligence Gaps:

    • Full BDA on Strategic Missile Strike: Precise number, type, and impact locations of all missiles launched by MiG-31K, ballistic launchers, cruise missile launchers, Tu-95MS, and Tu-22M3, and their impact on Ukrainian critical infrastructure (energy, water, military-industrial targets), particularly in Western Ukraine (Zhytomyr, Rivne, Dubno), Southern Ukraine (Odesa), and Zaporizhzhia, Ternopil, Cherkasy. Nikolaev Vanok's claim of an "airfield" as the target needs verification. (HIGHEST PRIORITY)
    • Veracity of Dnipropetrovsk Claim (Poddubny/Komar): Definitive GEOINT/IMINT/HUMINT on Russian force composition, disposition, and actual advances (if any) in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, specifically near Poddubny village and Komar village. Identification and verification of "Colonel Yevgeny Daraev" and the "tank regiment" (if real or fabricated). (HIGHEST PRIORITY)
    • Ukrainian AD Munition Levels: Updated assessment of critical interceptor munition inventories post-mass missile attack, especially for high-value ballistic/hypersonic interceptors. (HIGH PRIORITY)
    • Okinawa Airbase Incident: Verification of ASTRA's claims regarding an explosion and casualties at Kadena Air Base, Okinawa. (HIGH PRIORITY - for immediate debunking if false, to counter Russian IO).
    • Russian "49 UAVs" Claim & New Wave Indication: Verify the claimed scale of the Russian AD success (49 UAVs) and the scale/nature of the newly indicated wave of "reparations." (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
    • Impact of Russian Anti-Radiation Missile Strikes: Assessment of damage/suppression to Ukrainian AD radars from Kh-31P launches. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
    • Impact of Ukrainian Deep Strikes within Russia: BDA on the Cheboksary factory (VNIIR-Progress) production suspension, Gorno-Altaysk fire, and the drone attacks in Tambov, Voronezh (gas pipeline damage, airbase), and Nizhny Novgorod (airbase) Oblasts, and any impact of the Kaspersky cyberattack. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
    • Verification of Abrams Losses: Independent verification of Colonelcassad's claim regarding 26 Abrams tanks destroyed/captured. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
    • Verification of Starlink Destructions: Independent verification of TASS claims regarding 6 Starlink stations destroyed. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
    • Analysis of Russian VDV S-80 Drone Capability and Fiber Optic Drones: Fuller assessment of the S-80 drone's capabilities, numbers, and operational deployment, and the new fiber optic drones for precision targeting. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
    • Forensic Analysis of Captured POW (Gorbatenko): Full medical assessment of Andrey Gorbatenko to corroborate his claims of being deployed while unfit. Deeper interrogation on unit locations, command structure, personnel numbers, equipment, and recent orders, focusing on identities of commanders giving orders to kill wounded. (HIGH PRIORITY).

  • Collection Requirements:

    • SIGINT/ELINT: Continuous monitoring of Russian strategic aviation communications and flight paths from all airbases (Engels-2, Olenya, Soltsy, Shaikovka, Boriso-Glebsk, Savasleyka), particularly for launch confirmations from Tu-95MS and MiG-31K. Monitor ballistic and cruise missile launch signatures, especially those shifting towards Western or Southern Ukraine. Identification of EW efforts synchronized with ground or air attacks, especially on Dnipropetrovsk axis and Black Sea coastal areas. Monitoring of Russian C2 networks for signs of operational-level ground movements, particularly for the Poddubny/Komar claims. Monitoring of Russian drone control frequencies for new drone types (S-80, fiber optic drones).
    • GEOINT/IMINT: High-resolution satellite imagery over all claimed Russian advances, particularly Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Poddubny/Komar area), to detect force concentrations or actual penetration. Rapid assessment of critical infrastructure damage in Ukraine (especially Western and Southern Ukraine) and within Russia (e.g., Cheboksary factory, with confirmation of production suspension, Voronezh gas pipeline, Boriso-Glebsk airbase, Savasleyka airbase) from Ukrainian deep strikes. Imagery of ballistic/cruise missile launch sites in Bryansk/Kursk Oblasts. BDA on the destroyed vehicle shown in TASS video, including precise geolocation. Imagery of Russian VDV drone deployment sites or operational areas. Imagery of Ukrainian airfields mentioned as targets.
    • HUMINT: From frontline units for accurate reporting on Russian ground tactics, morale, and any unusual force dispositions. From affected civilian areas for accurate BDA and impact assessment. From occupied areas, if possible, to verify Russian claims and morale and the impact of social disinformation. Critical: From captured Russian POWs, particularly Andrey Gorbatenko, for detailed information on Russian unit structures (163rd Tank Regiment, 150th Motorized Rifle Division, "Storm" battalions), morale, discipline, and specific orders regarding treatment of wounded/POWs.
    • OSINT: Persistent monitoring of Russian milblogger and state media channels for new narratives, claims, and shifts in propaganda themes, particularly the explicit "mass strike" promotion (multi-wave claims), the Dnipropetrovsk narrative (now with TASS/Klishas amplification and Poddubny/Komar claims, and "destroyed a portion of AFU grouping in Poddubny"), tactical deception attempts (e.g., "drones ending soon," "Chernihiv not needed," "Rovno getting crooked," "Volyn?", "final solution to Rivne," "Dubno was normal?"), the new social disinformation, any new distraction tactics (e.g., Trump/Rubio, Greta Thunberg, Kaspersky cyber claims, Krasnoyarsk arrest, Michael Naki fine, Los Angeles protests, economic data, NATO reduction calls, Ryabkov's statements, Okinawa airbase incident), and especially attempts to undermine Ukrainian air raid warnings by claiming "imaginary missiles" or "EW game," or denying threats to specific cities like Odesa. Monitor exaggerated claims of Ukrainian losses (personnel, Starlinks, UAVs). Analysis of public sentiment within Ukraine, particularly regarding the Dnipropetropsk narrative and large-scale strikes, and adherence to air raid warnings. Monitoring of Russian internal news for shifts in focus or new internal security measures. Monitoring of Russian military forums for discussions on S-80 drone effectiveness or vulnerabilities.

END REPORT

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