Archived operational intelligence briefing
OPSEC CLASSIFICATION: NATO SECRET // RELEASABLE TO UKR FORCES
INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) TIME OF REPORT: 08 JUN 25 / 14:19 ZULU REPORTING PERIOD: 08 JUN 25 / 13:49 ZULU - 08 JUN 25 / 14:19 ZULU PREPARED BY: Senior Military Intelligence Analyst, Eastern European Warfare Desk
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:
AOR Update: Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (including Synelnykivskyi Raion, Mezheva community, Nikopol, Marhanets community, Pavlohrad, Kryvyi Rih, Eastern Dnipropetrovsk, Maliyivka, Dnipro, Oleksandrivskyi Raion), Zaporizhzhia Oblast (including Stepnohirsk community, Vasylivskyi Raion, Prymorske village, Northern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Melitopol, Olhivske, Zaliznychne, Novoandriyivka, Orikhiv, Malynivka, Huliaipole), Black Sea, Azov Sea, Sumy Oblast (including Loknya, Sumy city, Osoyivka, Myropilske, Nedryhailivska community, Esman community, Nikolskoye, Vorochina), Russian Federation (Kursk - including Kursk region, Bryansk - including Bryansk Oblast, Moscow Oblast - including Dubna, Kstovo - Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, Belgorod Oblast - including Nikolskoye, Kaluga - including Sukhinichi and Borovsk districts, Smolensk Oblasts, Moscow Region including Dubna, Podmoskovye, Moscow city, Pushkino, Vnukovo Airport, Domodedovo Airport, Zhukovsky Airport, Ramensky district, Sokolovo-Khomyanovo; Irkutsk region - Belaya airfield; Tambov Oblast - Michurinsk; Ryazan Oblast - Dyagilevo; Belgorod Oblast - Prokhorovka-Belenikhino, Zhuravlevka, Pushkarozhadinsky, Azov - Rostov Oblast, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast - Kstovo, Sevastopol, Lipetsk Oblast, Orel Oblast, Tula Oblast - Novomoskovsk, Azot chemical plant; Mariupol, Kazan), Southern Donetsk Direction (including Stupochky, Bahatyr, Vesele, Burlatske, Vilne Pole, Zarya, Komar), Konstantinovka direction, Siversk direction (Verkhnokamyanske), Odesa Oblast, Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo - Alekseevka, Chasov Yar, Kramatorsk axis - including Chasiv Yar, Markove, Bila Hora, Predtechyne; Toretsk axis - including Toretsk, Dyliyivka, Yablunivka; Novopavlivka axis - including Bahatyr, Vesele, Burlatske, Vilne Pole; Krasnoarmeysk-Novosergeevka, Maryinka, Dalnee, Sokol, Lipovoe, Bakhmut, Progress, Kleshcheevka, Vasyutinskoye, south Donetsk region, Hryhorivka, Andriivka, Zarya, Poltavka, Myrolubivka, Myrne, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Lysivka, Novoserhiyivka, Udachne, Kotlyne, Novomykolayivka, Horikhove, Kotlyarivka, Bohdanivka, Novoukrayinka, Andriyivka), Kupyansk axis (Kupyansk-Vuzlovyy, Stepova Novoselivka, Kindrashivka), Kherson axis (Lvove, Kherson region), Ternopil Oblast, Kyiv, Krasnoarmeysk direction, Lviv Oblast, Mykolaiv Oblast (including Varvarivka, Matviivka, Voskresenske, Konstantinivka), Poltava Oblast, Kirovohrad Oblast, Vinnytsia Oblast, Cherkasy Oblast, Zhytomyr Oblast, Kyiv Oblast, Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), Vremivka Direction. Lyman Direction (Hrekivka, Novyy Myr, Ridkodub, Zelena Dolyna, Torske, Bilohorivka). Colombia (Bogota). Belgium. Chernihiv Oblast (Hotiyevka). Komsomolsk-on-Amur (Khabarovsk Krai, RU). Washington D.C., US. Kharkiv Oblast (including Kharkiv city). Engels (Saratov Oblast), Russia. Chelyabinsk Oblast (Argayash). Hvardiiske Airfield (Crimea). Borisoglebsk Airfield. Kursk Airfield. Ugledar. Chernivtsi Oblast. Ramensky district (Moscow Oblast). Los Angeles, USA. Gagauzia, Moldova. Kazakhstan.
New Developments (UKR):
New Developments (RU):
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations:
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:
Capabilities:
Intentions:
Courses of Action (COA):
MLCOA 2 (Retained from previous report): Sustained and Escalated Retaliatory Saturation Attacks on Urban Centers and Critical Infrastructure, Coupled with Amplified Disinformation on Humanitarian Issues and Western Divisions, with Direct Targeting of First Responders, and New Attack Vectors (INCLUDING CHEMICAL HAZARDS AND FALSE FLAG ATROCITIES), and Targeted Degradation of Ukrainian AD (WITH INCREASED PRECISION DRONE STRIKES ON PERSONNEL/LOGISTICS), with Intensified Missile Rhetoric and Propaganda on Ukrainian Surrender, with new emphasis on Russian cross-border claims of "terrorism" and calls for tribunals, and direct diplomatic threats regarding strategic missile deployments: Russia will continue and likely intensify KAB and missile/UAV strikes on Ukrainian urban centers. The Su-35 loss in Kursk Oblast and the HUR cyberattack on Russian railway services (previous reports) will be used to justify further widespread and severe retaliatory strikes. The Ternopil explosion (previous report) will be amplified as a success. Threat of aviation weapons application in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (previous report) confirms continued air strike posture. The rapid lifting of airport restrictions in Moscow (previous report) aims to demonstrate a return to normalcy and signal continued resilience in the face of Ukrainian deep strikes, potentially masking preparations for new strikes. Concurrently, Russia will continue a persistent and aggressive information campaign, particularly regarding body/POW exchanges, blaming Ukraine for delays, exploiting any perceived Western failures or internal divisions, and amplifying claims of Ukrainian military personnel seeking surrender or demonstrating low morale. The body exchange narrative will be heavily amplified, with new statements from Старше Эдды and Alex Parker Returns (previous report), and official statements from Zakharova (previous report) questioning Zelensky's decisions. Russian diplomatic rhetoric will escalate, threatening changes to strategic arms control if Western missile deployments continue. The persistent strike on the Azot chemical plant (previous report) will lead to Russian retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian chemical or industrial facilities, or an increase in strikes with a focus on creating secondary hazards. Furthermore, Russia will escalate the dissemination of false flag narratives regarding "Ukrainian atrocities" in Russian border regions, and continue to propagate false claims of Ukrainian military retreats and military losses. Russia will continue to employ aviation munitions in contested areas and persist with multi-UAV attacks on cities like Mykolaiv and its surrounding areas, testing Ukrainian AD response. Russia will significantly increase the use of precision tactical drones (both FPV and loitering munitions) to directly target Ukrainian personnel (including under low-light/night conditions), logistics vehicles, and command and control nodes (including comms antennas) to disrupt frontline operations and inflict casualties, and will use propaganda to highlight these strikes. KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia Oblast (previous report) will continue, causing civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure. Persistent Ukrainian UAV attacks on Moscow region and other Russian territories (previous report) will continue, leading to further Russian airport restrictions and public claims of interceptions, which Russia will leverage to justify further retaliation. Russia will continue with heavy shelling, MLRS, and FPV drone attacks on civilian areas in frontline communities, particularly in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, leading to civilian casualties. The successful Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian serviceman in Nikolskoye, Belgorod Oblast (previous report), will be used as additional justification for increased retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian territory. Russian MoD claims of 4 UAVs and a "Neptune-MD" missile intercepted over Russian territory/Black Sea (previous report) will be amplified to demonstrate effectiveness of Russian AD, further justifying retaliation. Putin's Security Council meeting (previous report) will likely address internal security and deep strikes, setting conditions for further retaliation. New KAB strikes on Sumy and Northern Kharkiv Oblasts (AFU - previous report), and the power outage in Kursk Oblast (TASS - previous report, ASTRA) directly from a Ukrainian strike, will be used as fresh justification for large-scale retaliation. Continued focus on "re-education" and control of narrative via "digital archive" and VPN blocking (Basurin, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ASTRA - previous report) will frame these actions as necessary responses. Continued focus on the "body exchange" narrative by Kotsnews and Colonelcassad (previous report) will provide continuous IO justification. New drone damage and civilian casualties in Ramensky district, Moscow Oblast (Операция Z - previous report, Два майора) and civilian damage/casualties in Nikopol (ASTRA - previous report) will be used as fresh justifications for large-scale retaliation. The secondary detonation in Ternopil (Colonelcassad - previous report, Военкор Котенок) will be amplified as a success. The explicit threat from НгП раZVедка against Kyiv and Dnipro infrastructure indicates an intent for these cities to remain high-priority targets for such strikes. * Confidence: HIGH (Confidence remains High based on previous intelligence.) * Indicators: (Previous indicators apply. No new specific indicators added by this reporting period).
2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:
2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:
2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):
MLCOA 1: Sustained Ground Offensive Support with Targeted Artillery/Precision Drone Strikes on Donetsk and Sumy Axes, Coupled with Intensified Maritime Hybrid Operations in the Black Sea, and Amplified Disinformation Aimed at Undermining Ukrainian-Western Alliance and Domestic Morale, alongside Projections of Russian Long-Term Military Build-Up and Internal Stability: Russian forces will continue to press ground offensives on existing axes, particularly in Donetsk (Shakhtarsky direction) and potentially Sumy, supporting them with targeted artillery and pervasive precision tactical drone strikes against Ukrainian positions, C2 nodes (as demonstrated by Воин DV's video), logistics, and personnel. The claimed achievement of reaching the "western border of the DPR" by Artem Zhoga (ТАСС) indicates an intent to consolidate and expand control in Donetsk. Concurrently, Russia will intensify maritime hybrid operations in the Black Sea, especially around gas platforms, utilizing specialized units like "Espanola's Sea Detachment" (Два майора, Рыбарь's map). Russia will significantly amplify disinformation campaigns, particularly focusing on undermining Ukrainian legitimacy (claims of mercenaries disguising as civilians - ТАСС) and sowing discord between Ukraine and its Western allies (amplifying Zelenskyy's statement on US missile diversion - Операция Z). Propaganda will also focus on projecting Russian long-term military strength and strategic foresight (planning for military universities - Colonelcassad) and internal stability and development in Russian regions (Lipetsk Governor's digest - Игорь Артамонов). Efforts to normalize and promote military service, including through highlighting diverse roles (women in assault detachments - WarGonzo), will continue. Russia will continue to manage domestic sentiment by issuing public warnings (fraud related to SMO fundraising - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) and engaging in subtle mockery of Ukrainian and Western narratives (Alex Parker Returns' "refrigerator" meme). Russia will continue to interpret geopolitical shifts to its advantage (Kazakhstan - Alex Parker Returns).
MLCOA 2 (Retained from previous report): Sustained and Escalated Retaliatory Saturation Attacks on Urban Centers and Critical Infrastructure, Coupled with Amplified Disinformation on Humanitarian Issues and Western Divisions, with Direct Targeting of First Responders, and New Attack Vectors (INCLUDING CHEMICAL HAZARDS AND FALSE FLAG ATROCITIES), and Targeted Degradation of Ukrainian AD (WITH INCREASED PRECISION DRONE STRIKES ON PERSONNEL/LOGISTICS), with Intensified Missile Rhetoric and Propaganda on Ukrainian Surrender, with new emphasis on Russian cross-border claims of "terrorism" and calls for tribunals, and direct diplomatic threats regarding strategic missile deployments: Russia will continue and likely intensify KAB and missile/UAV strikes on Ukrainian urban centers. The Su-35 loss in Kursk Oblast and the HUR cyberattack on Russian railway services (previous reports) will be used to justify further widespread and severe retaliatory strikes. The Ternopil explosion (previous report) will be amplified as a success. Threat of aviation weapons application in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (previous report) confirms continued air strike posture. The rapid lifting of airport restrictions in Moscow (previous report) aims to demonstrate a return to normalcy and signal continued resilience in the face of Ukrainian deep strikes, potentially masking preparations for new strikes. Concurrently, Russia will continue a persistent and aggressive information campaign, particularly regarding body/POW exchanges, blaming Ukraine for delays, exploiting any perceived Western failures or internal divisions, and amplifying claims of Ukrainian military personnel seeking surrender or demonstrating low morale. The body exchange narrative will be heavily amplified, with new statements from Старше Эдды and Alex Parker Returns (previous report), and official statements from Zakharova (previous report) questioning Zelensky's decisions. Russian diplomatic rhetoric will escalate, threatening changes to strategic arms control if Western missile deployments continue. The persistent strike on the Azot chemical plant (previous report) will lead to Russian retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian chemical or industrial facilities, or an increase in strikes with a focus on creating secondary hazards. Furthermore, Russia will escalate the dissemination of false flag narratives regarding "Ukrainian atrocities" in Russian border regions, and continue to propagate false claims of Ukrainian military retreats and military losses. Russia will continue to employ aviation munitions in contested areas and persist with multi-UAV attacks on cities like Mykolaiv and its surrounding areas, testing Ukrainian AD response. Russia will significantly increase the use of precision tactical drones (both FPV and loitering munitions) to directly target Ukrainian personnel (including under low-light/night conditions), logistics vehicles, and command and control nodes (including comms antennas) to disrupt frontline operations and inflict casualties, and will use propaganda to highlight these strikes. KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia Oblast (previous report) will continue, causing civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure. Persistent Ukrainian UAV attacks on Moscow region and other Russian territories (previous report) will continue, leading to further Russian airport restrictions and public claims of interceptions, which Russia will leverage to justify further retaliation. Russia will continue with heavy shelling, MLRS, and FPV drone attacks on civilian areas in frontline communities, particularly in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, leading to civilian casualties. The successful Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian serviceman in Nikolskoye, Belgorod Oblast (previous report), will be used as additional justification for increased retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian territory. Russian MoD claims of 4 UAVs and a "Neptune-MD" missile intercepted over Russian territory/Black Sea (previous report) will be amplified to demonstrate effectiveness of Russian AD, further justifying retaliation. Putin's Security Council meeting (previous report) will likely address internal security and deep strikes, setting conditions for further retaliation. New KAB strikes on Sumy and Northern Kharkiv Oblasts (AFU - previous report), and the power outage in Kursk Oblast (TASS - previous report, ASTRA) directly from a Ukrainian strike, will be used as fresh justification for large-scale retaliation. Continued focus on "re-education" and control of narrative via "digital archive" and VPN blocking (Basurin, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ASTRA - previous report) will frame these actions as necessary responses. Continued focus on the "body exchange" narrative by Kotsnews and Colonelcassad (previous report) will provide continuous IO justification. New drone damage and civilian casualties in Ramensky district, Moscow Oblast (Операция Z - previous report, Два майора) and civilian damage/casualties in Nikopol (ASTRA - previous report) will be used as fresh justifications for large-scale retaliation. The secondary detonation in Ternopil (Colonelcassad - previous report, Военкор Котенок) will be amplified as a success. The explicit threat from НгП раZVедка against Kyiv and Dnipro infrastructure indicates an intent for these cities to remain high-priority targets for such strikes.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):
MDCOA 1: Renewed Large-Scale Ballistic/Cruise Missile Campaign to Cripple Ukrainian AD and Energy/Logistics Infrastructure, with Increased Focus on Chemical/Industrial Targets, and Pre-strike AD Suppression, accompanied by Escalating Missile Rhetoric leading to Actual Missile Deployments, with new emphasis on Russian cross-border claims of "terrorism" and calls for tribunals, and direct diplomatic threats regarding strategic missile deployments: Russia, despite Iskander losses (previous report), will launch a renewed, multi-wave missile and drone campaign targeting Ukraine's critical national infrastructure, with a specific emphasis on overwhelming weakened Ukrainian air defenses and inflicting widespread damage as a "revenge strike" for the Tu-22M3 and other strategic losses. The Su-35 loss in Kursk Oblast (previous report, corroborated by Russian source), the HUR cyberattack on Russian railway services (previous report), and the repeated imposition of airport restrictions in Moscow (previous report) all provide significant justification for a severe, coordinated, and disproportionate response. The aviation threat in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (previous report) indicates readiness for such strikes. The Ternopil explosion (previous report) will be amplified as a success and justification. Maria Zakharova's statements on body exchange (previous report) contribute to the information environment justifying escalation. The continued persistent fire at Engels oil depot for a third day (previous report) demonstrates the success of previous Ukrainian deep strikes but also provides a renewed rationale for Russian retaliation. The successful Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian serviceman in Nikolskoye, Belgorod Oblast (previous report), will be used as additional justification for increased retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian territory. The persistent targeting of the Azot chemical plant (previous report), now confirmed as a source for explosives in artillery shells, may trigger a significant, high-volume missile retaliation aimed at Ukraine's critical infrastructure, potentially including targets with industrial chemical significance, aiming to create secondary hazards and disrupt Ukrainian defense production. Prior to or concurrent with these strikes, Russia may conduct widespread air defense suppression operations to improve the effectiveness of their missile and drone attacks. The sustained use of aviation munitions and multi-UAV attacks could be precursors to a larger, more coordinated aerial assault. The increased activity of Russian tactical aviation in the southeastern direction could be a precursor to massed KAB strikes or a coordinated aviation strike package. The explicit statements from Russian MFA on missile deployments and the end of the moratorium could signal preparations for a new phase of strategic missile testing or even deployment in response to perceived Western threats. The increased frequency of UAV attacks on Moscow and resulting airport closures could serve as a trigger or justification for such a large-scale missile campaign, framed as necessary retaliation. The inclusion of an Oniks anti-ship missile in the recent attack (previous report) indicates Russia's willingness to use diverse, high-value missile assets, making this MDCOA even more dangerous. Russian MoD claims of intercepting 4 UAVs over Russian territory and a "Neptune-MD" missile over the Black Sea (previous report), coupled with civilian casualties in Kharkiv from Russian strikes (previous report), will be used as justification for further escalation of deep strikes. The confirmed power outage in Kursk Oblast due to a Ukrainian strike (TASS - previous report, ASTRA) and new KAB warnings for Sumy and Northern Kharkiv Oblasts (AFU - previous report) provide fresh, immediate justifications for a renewed large-scale missile campaign. The damage photos from Kharkiv (Oleh Syniehubov - previous report) provide visual evidence for Russian propaganda to exploit. New drone damage and civilian casualties in Ramensky district, Moscow Oblast (Операция Z - previous report, Два майора) and civilian damage/casualties in Nikopol (ASTRA - previous report) will be used as fresh, immediate justifications for a renewed large-scale missile campaign. The secondary detonation in Ternopil (Colonelcassad - previous report, Военкор Котенок) reinforces the impact of previous strikes and serves as a justification for further escalation. The direct threat from НгП раZVедка against Kyiv and Dnipro confirms these cities as high-priority targets for such a campaign, and the diversion of 20,000 anti-Shahed missiles from Ukraine to the Middle East (STERNENKO quoting Zelenskyy) creates a significant window of vulnerability that Russia could exploit for this MDCOA.
MDCOA 2: Attempted Strategic Breakthrough on Sumy Axis with Major Force Commitment and Massed Air Support (with Chemical Warfare consideration/False Flag Pretext), Enabled by Prior AD Suppression, or Major Breakthrough in Southern Donetsk, Supported by Increased Psychological Operations, or Accelerated Push on Konstantinovka, with a focus on Strategic Breakthrough in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and intensified pressure on Konstantinovka to link up with forces advancing on that axis: Russia commits substantial additional reserves to the Sumy axis, initiating a rapid, decisive breakthrough aimed at encircling or seizing Sumy city. The confirmed occupation of Loknya and further advances towards Sumy city (ISW map - previous report) indicate a clear Russian intent and successful tactical advance on this axis, making a larger strategic push more dangerous. New drone footage of operations on Sumy direction (Два майора - previous report) reinforces this assessment. The presence of M-113 APC in Kharkiv direction (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 - previous report) indicates Russian offensive presence in the region. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 video confirming Ukrainian border guard artillery destroying a UAV launch position and infantry/dugouts in Kharkiv direction (previous report), indicates active Russian offensive attempts that could escalate. New video from Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shows "Anvar" special detachment conducting artillery and UAV strikes on Ukrainian positions in Sumy/Chernihiv border (previous report), confirming continued pressure for buffer zone creation. The claim of Russian army entering Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition - previous report, Операция Z), while low confidence, signals an intent for a major strategic push into central Ukraine that would be highly dangerous if realized. DeepState map showing Kindrashivka as Russian controlled (previous report) confirms continued slow but steady territorial gains on the Kupyansk axis, indicating Russian capability for attritional advances that could be scaled up. This would involve overwhelming combined arms force, massed KAB strikes to suppress Ukrainian defenses, and deep strikes to neutralize Ukrainian command and control and logistics in the region. This would be significantly facilitated by prior air defense suppression operations. Given the recent persistent strike on the Azot chemical plant (previous report), and Russia's past false flag attempts regarding chemical weapons, there is a low but non-zero risk of Russia preparing to conduct an operation with chemical munitions or a "dirty bomb" in the context of a strategic breakthrough, or blame Ukraine for such an event, potentially fabricating evidence. Alternatively, Russia could concentrate forces for a strategic breakthrough in the Southern Donetsk direction, leveraging claimed gains around Stupochky, Hryhorivka, and Andriivka (previous report) to expand an offensive aimed at a larger operational objective. This would be supported by amplified psychological operations claiming mass Ukrainian surrenders or demoralization to undermine resistance. An accelerated and decisive push to seize Konstantinovka, leveraging massed fire and air support, could also occur, aimed at disrupting Ukrainian logistics in the Donetsk region. Given the continued high intensity of ground assaults on Pokrovsk and Southern Donetsk, the confirmed advances in Sumy, and the confirmed effectiveness of Russian FPV drones in targeting Ukrainian armor and manpower, a multi-axis strategic push to achieve significant territorial gains in the East and Northeast, potentially supported by overwhelming drone and air assets, is a highly dangerous possibility that warrants close monitoring. Воин DV video shows continued precision drone strikes on strongholds, weapons, and equipment in Southern Donetsk (previous report), indicating continued pressure. Colonelcassad's video of Zarya capture (previous report) confirms concrete territorial gains in Donetsk, reinforcing potential for larger breakthroughs. The active maritime operations by the "Española" unit (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА - previous report) could be precursors to or support for a broader coastal/land offensive. Claimed destruction of "Baba Yaga" multicopter in Kharkiv direction (previous report) aims to degrade Ukrainian ISR/strike capabilities for ground operations. Medvedev's statement explicitly linking "new realities on the ground" to negotiation outcomes, especially mentioning Dnipropetrovsk (previous report), suggests a strategic imperative for significant territorial gains that could manifest as this MDCOA. The explicit threat to eliminate senior SBU officers (previous report) indicates a willingness to remove key opposition figures to facilitate such a breakthrough. РБК-Україна's report on Russian intentions to enter Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (previous report), despite Ukrainian defense, reinforces this as a high-priority ground objective. The Ugledar police station incident (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС - previous report), if related to Russian operations, could indicate efforts to disrupt internal security in contested areas. New FPV drone compilation from Colonelcassad (previous report) demonstrates widespread and effective use against various Ukrainian military targets. MoD Russia explicitly states ZALA UAV teams adjusting air strikes on right bank of Dnipro River in Kherson (previous report), confirming combined arms effectiveness. Два майора videos show specific FPV drone strikes on Sumy axis, including claimed surrender (previous report). Alex Parker Returns' "tactical retreat, strategic strengthening" narrative (previous report) indicates a new approach to managing ground setbacks. The 63rd Brigade video showing Russian artillery firing on their own captured soldier (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС - previous report) suggests a willingness to use extreme measures to prevent POW capture, which could be replicated to break Ukrainian assaults or prevent withdrawals. Reconnaissance UAVs in Pavlohrad Raion (Повітряні Сили ЗС України) indicate continued intelligence gathering for tactical adjustments. KABs in Donetsk (Повітряні Сили ЗС України) demonstrate ongoing aerial support for ground assaults. The claimed "clearing" of a settlement in DPR (Colonelcassad) confirms continued attritional ground gains. The claimed destruction of a Ukrainian UAV control point and dugout in Shakhtarsky direction (Воин DV) indicates a direct tactical goal for this MDCOA.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:
Next 24-48 Hours (Short-Term):
Sustain and Exploit Deep Strike Successes, Prepare for Retaliation and Enhanced Russian Defenses, Targeting Chemical/Industrial Nodes Critical to Ammunition Production, While Assessing Russian Internal Security Adaptations and Countering Russian UAV C2 (Urgent):
Intensify Counter-Information Warfare on Humanitarian Issues, Western Divisions, and Russian Fabrications, Addressing Internal Russian Propaganda, and Debunking False Claims of Success, including New "Surrender" Narratives and Strategic Missile Rhetoric (Ongoing & Critical):
Reinforce and Monitor Sumy and Donetsk Axes Defenses, Verify Russian Claims, and Account for Potential AD Degradation, while Adapting to New Precision Drone Threats and Countering Russian Ground Offensives (Urgent):
Enhance Maritime Security in the Black Sea and Crimea, and Bolster Air Defense in Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kherson, while maintaining vigilance on Russian naval operations (New & Critical):
END REPORT
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