Situation Report

OPSEC CLASSIFICATION: NATO SECRET // RELEASABLE TO UKR FORCES

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) TIME OF REPORT: 08 JUN 25 / 12:49 ZULU REPORTING PERIOD: 08 JUN 25 / 12:20 ZULU - 08 JUN 25 / 12:49 ZULU PREPARED BY: Senior Military Intelligence Analyst, Eastern European Warfare Desk

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• AOR Update: Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (including Synelnykivskyi Raion, Mezheva community, Nikopol, Marhanets community, Pavlohrad, Kryvyi Rih, Eastern Dnipropetrovsk, Maliyivka, Dnipro), Zaporizhzhia Oblast (including Stepnohirsk community, Vasylivskyi Raion, Prymorske village, Northern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Melitopol, Olhivske, Zaliznychne, Novoandriyivka, Orikhiv, Malynivka, Huliaipole), Black Sea, Azov Sea, Sumy Oblast (including Loknya, Sumy city, Osoyivka, Myropilske, Nedryhailivska community, Esman community, Nikolskoye), Russian Federation (Kursk - including Kursk region, Bryansk - including Bryansk Oblast, Moscow Oblast - including Dubna, Kstovo - Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, Belgorod Oblast - including Nikolskoye, Kaluga - including Sukhinichi and Borovsk districts, Smolensk Oblasts, Moscow Region including Dubna, Podmoskovye, Moscow city, Pushkino, Vnukovo Airport, Domodedovo Airport, Zhukovsky Airport; Irkutsk region - Belaya airfield; Tambov Oblast - Michurinsk; Ryazan Oblast - Dyagilevo; Belgorod Oblast - Prokhorovka-Belenikhino, Zhuravlevka, Pushkarozhadinsky, Azov - Rostov Oblast, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast - Kstovo, Sevastopol, Lipetsk Oblast, Orel Oblast, Tula Oblast - Novomoskovsk, Azot chemical plant; Mariupol, Kazan), Southern Donetsk Direction (including Stupochky, Bahatyr, Vesele, Burlatske, Vilne Pole, Zarya, Komar), Konstantinovka direction, Siversk direction (Verkhnokamyanske), Odesa Oblast, Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo - Alekseevka, Chasov Yar, Kramatorsk axis - including Chasiv Yar, Markove, Bila Hora, Predtechyne; Toretsk axis - including Toretsk, Dyliyivka, Yablunivka; Novopavlivka axis - including Bahatyr, Vesele, Burlatske, Vilne Pole; Krasnoarmeysk-Novosergeevka, Maryinka, Dalnee, Sokol, Lipovoe, Bakhmut, Progress, Kleshcheevka, Vasyutinskoye, south Donetsk region, Hryhorivka, Andriivka, Zarya, Poltavka, Myrolubivka, Myrne, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Lysivka, Novoserhiyivka, Udachne, Kotlyne, Novomykolayivka, Horikhove, Kotlyarivka, Bohdanivka, Novoukrayinka, Andriyivka), Kupyansk axis (Kupyansk-Vuzlovyy, Stepova Novoselivka, Kindrashivka), Kherson axis (Lvove, Kherson region), Ternopil Oblast, Kyiv, Krasnoarmeysk direction, Lviv Oblast, Mykolaiv Oblast (including Varvarivka, Matviivka, Voskresenske, Konstantinivka), Poltava Oblast, Kirovohrad Oblast, Vinnytsia Oblast, Cherkasy Oblast, Zhytomyr Oblast, Kyiv Oblast, Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), Vremivka Direction. Lyman Direction (Hrekivka, Novyy Myr, Ridkodub, Zelena Dolyna, Torske, Bilohorivka). Colombia (Bogota). Belgium. Chernihiv Oblast (Hotiyevka). Komsomolsk-on-Amur (Khabarovsk Krai, RU). Washington D.C., US. Kharkiv Oblast (including Kharkiv city). Engels (Saratov Oblast), Russia. Chelyabinsk Oblast (Argayash). Hvardiiske Airfield (Crimea). Borisoglebsk Airfield. Kursk Airfield. Ugledar. Chernivtsi Oblast.

• New Developments (UKR):

  • Civilian Casualties/Damage (Kharkiv): Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (Oleh Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Oblast State Administration) shares multiple photos captioned "Харків відновлюється після вчорашньої атаки ворога" (Kharkiv is recovering after yesterday's enemy attack). Photos show significant damage to civilian structures, including shattered windows, boarded-up doors, and debris. One image shows a damaged train at a station. Another shows the Kharkiv Regional Military Administration building with boarded-up windows. One photo shows a "Rapid Response Group" associated with "Charitable Foundation Peaceful Sky Kharkiv" providing aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Official Ukrainian source, extensive visual corroboration of civilian damage and recovery efforts).
  • Logistical Support (Zaporizhzhia): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration) shares multiple photos captioned "Підбиваємо підсумки допомоги Силам оборони на Запорізькому напрямку за тиждень 🇺🇦" (Summarizing aid to Defense Forces in Zaporizhzhia direction for the week). Photos show drones (heavy-lift multi-rotor, possibly for offensive payloads) and power generation equipment, with one photo displaying cylindrical objects appearing consistent with improvised drone-delivered munitions marked with a skull emblem and "ВІЙСЬКОВА РОЗВІДКА" (Military Intelligence) / "ЗСУ" (AFU). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Official Ukrainian source, visual corroboration of equipment and unit support).
  • Unit Activity (FPV Drones - STERNENKO): STERNENKO shares multiple videos captioned "Посіпаки професійно знищують розвідувальні та ударні крила росіян!" (Minions professionally destroy Russian reconnaissance and strike wings!).
    • Video 1: Shows FPV drone footage, including thermal/night vision, of an FPV drone intercepting and destroying another airborne drone (likely Russian reconnaissance/loitering munition) in flight. Unit patches "ПОСІПАКИ" (Minions), "Д И К І ШЕРШНІ" (Wild Hornets), and "БЛАГОДІЙНИЙ ФОНД СПІЛЬНОТА СТЕРНЕНКА" (Charitable Foundation Spilnota Sternenka) are visible. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Ukrainian source, visual corroboration of successful kinetic anti-drone operation).
    • Video 2: Shows similar FPV drone footage, including thermal/night vision, of a loitering munition (likely Shahed-136/Geran-2 variant) on the ground being struck and destroyed. Unit patches "Посіпаки" and "Дикі шершні" are visible. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Ukrainian source, visual corroboration of successful kinetic anti-drone operation against a ground target).
  • Deep Strike BDA (Kursk Oblast): ТАСС reports "Рыльский район, а также частично Глушковский и Кореневский муниципалитеты Курской области остались без электричества из-за удара ВСУ, сообщил Хинштейн." (Rylsky district, as well as parts of Glushkovsky and Korenevsky municipalities of Kursk Oblast, lost electricity due to AFU strike, reported Khinshtein). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian state media confirms Ukrainian strike and impact on civilian infrastructure).
  • Air Defense Warning (KABs): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) reports "🚀 КАБи на Сумщину, північ Харківщини!" (KABs on Sumy Oblast, North Kharkiv Oblast!). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Official Ukrainian source, real-time air threat warning).
  • Humanitarian/Mobilization Issue (Chernivtsi): РБК-Україна reports "❗️Омбудсмен Лубінець відреагував на незаконне утримання бойового медика "Йоди" ТЦК в Чернівецької області" (Ombudsman Lubinets reacted to the illegal detention of combat medic "Yoda" by TCC in Chernivtsi Oblast). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Ukrainian news source, reports official reaction to internal issue).
  • Ground Operations (Donetsk - Ugledar): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports "🔴ЯК КОЛИШНІ ЗАСУДЖЕНІ ПІДІРВАЛИ РАЙВІДДІЛ ПОЛІЦІЇ В ВУГЛЕДАРІ" (HOW FORMER CONVICTS BLEW UP THE DISTRICT POLICE DEPARTMENT IN VUHLEDAR). (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Ukrainian milblogger, reports specific incident involving former convicts, requires further verification of perpetrators and specific context).
  • Ground Operations (Dnipropetrovsk Intention): РБК-Україна reports "Росіяни не полишають намірів зайти у Дніпропетровську область, але наші бійці професійно ламають плани окупанти, - Сили оборони Півдня" (Russians do not abandon intentions to enter Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, but our soldiers professionally break the occupiers' plans - Southern Defense Forces). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Ukrainian news source, reports on Russian intent and successful Ukrainian defense).

• New Developments (RU):

  • Information Operations (Re-education): Басурин о главном (Basurin on the main) shares video captioned "🚫 Кто в России помогает режиму Зеленского и как перевоспитывать украинцев — Басурин" (Who in Russia helps Zelensky's regime and how to re-educate Ukrainians — Basurin). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger, explicit propaganda on "re-education" and internal dissent).
  • Information Operations (FPV drone fundraising): Fighterbomber posts "Некогда объяснять! Все на передачу!" (No time to explain! Everyone to the transfer!). This is a typical call for donations for FPV drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger, clear call for equipment donations).
  • Internal Security/Propaganda (Digital Archive): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (Paratrooper's Diary) reports "🪂 В России появится цифровой архив СВО" (A digital archive of the SMO will appear in Russia). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger, indicates state-level effort for information control/historical revisionism).
  • Political Messaging (Medvedev): Colonelcassad reports "Тот, кто не хочет признавать реалии войны на переговорах, получит новые реалии на земле." (He who does not want to recognize the realities of war in negotiations will get new realities on the ground.). This is a direct quote from Medvedev, echoing previous statements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger, direct quote from high-level official).
  • Information Operations (Body Exchange - Budanov): Операция Z (Operation Z) reports "Военкоры Русской Весны: ‼️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Обмен телами погибших между Украиной и Россией планируется начать на следующей неделе — Буданов" (Russian Spring military correspondents: ‼️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Exchange of bodies of the dead between Ukraine and Russia is planned to begin next week — Budanov). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger, cites Ukrainian official Budanov on a sensitive topic, likely to set conditions for future IO).
  • Information Operations (Body Exchange - Ukrainian Refusal): Kotsnews shares two video messages captioned "Украина снова отказалась забирать своих «двухсотых»" (Ukraine again refused to take its "Cargo 200s" [dead]). Video shows a Russian speaker (likely official) claiming Ukraine refused to take 1212 bodies, stating that more repatriation trains are planned to carry over 6000 bodies, and expressing disappointment that Ukraine has not confirmed receipt. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger, explicit propaganda amplifying previous "body exchange" narrative).
  • Information Operations (Body Exchange - Budanov/Coercion): Colonelcassad reports "Буданов заявил, что Украина все же заберет своих покойников на следующей неделе и пожаловался, что Украину фактически к этому принуждают, что мол нельзя так." (Budanov stated that Ukraine will still take its dead next week and complained that Ukraine is actually being forced to do so, saying that it shouldn't be like that.). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger, directly contradicts previous Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters statement, likely to frame Ukraine as being forced/disingenuous).
  • Information Operations (VPN Blocking): ASTRA shares two photo messages captioned "Власти РФ блокируют VPN — один за другим. Но не ASTRA VPN. Мы сделали все, чтобы он работал дольше всех" (RF authorities are blocking VPNs — one after another. But not ASTRA VPN. We did everything to make it work longer than anyone). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Independent Russian opposition media, confirms ongoing Russian efforts to control information by blocking VPNs).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations:

• Continued drone operations by both sides (FPV drone engagements in STERNENKO videos) indicate conditions remain permissive for aerial ISR and strike missions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian strike on power infrastructure in Kursk Oblast (TASS) indicates continued effectiveness of deep strikes and potential for further disruption due to environmental factors (e.g., loss of power impacts heating/cooling/water supply). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• KAB warnings on Sumy and Northern Kharkiv Oblasts (AFU) indicate conditions remain permissive for Russian glide bomb attacks, which generate significant blast and shrapnel effects. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Damage observed in Kharkiv (Oleh Syniehubov photos) consistent with blast overpressure, suggesting clear atmospheric conditions allowed for precision or area bombardment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces (Air/AD/ISR):
  • Ukrainian forces are continuing deep strike operations into Russian territory, evidenced by the power outage in Kursk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Ukrainian FPV drone units ("Posipaky," "Dyki Shershni," supported by "Spilnota Sternenka") are demonstrating advanced counter-UAS capabilities, kinetically destroying Russian drones in flight and on the ground. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Ukrainian forces are continuing to report real-time KAB threats to Sumy and Northern Kharkiv Oblasts, indicating effective air monitoring and warning systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration is actively involved in supplying Ukrainian Defense Forces with critical equipment, including heavy-lift drones and improvised munitions, indicating robust regional support for combat operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian Forces (Ground):
  • Engaged in defensive operations in Kharkiv Oblast, suffering civilian casualties from Russian strikes, but actively recovering. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Southern Defense Forces are actively breaking Russian attempts to enter Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating successful defensive posture and combat effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • The incident in Ugledar involving former convicts blowing up a police station (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) points to potential internal security challenges or complex operational environments in frontline areas. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
• Ukrainian Forces (Information Operations):
  • Oleh Syniehubov's public sharing of recovery efforts in Kharkiv aims to reassure the public and highlight Russian brutality. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration is actively publicizing support efforts for the Defense Forces, boosting morale and showcasing regional commitment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • STERNENKO's videos of FPV drone successes serve as strong morale boosters and demonstrate Ukrainian tactical innovation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • The Ombudsman's reaction to the TCC detention in Chernivtsi (РБК-Україна) indicates internal mechanisms for addressing grievances and maintaining public trust. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Forces (Ground):
  • Russian forces are actively attempting to enter Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (РБК-Україна), indicating continued offensive intent towards central Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Continued reliance on ground assaults, supported by KABs, as evidenced by warnings for Sumy and Northern Kharkiv Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Forces (Information Operations):
  • Intensified the "body exchange" narrative, with Kotsnews and Colonelcassad actively promoting claims of Ukrainian refusal to accept bodies, and then claiming Budanov is being "forced" to accept them. This is a highly coordinated and aggressive psychological operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Basurin's video (Басурин о главном) explicitly promoting "re-education" of Ukrainians indicates a hardening and legitimization of forced assimilation rhetoric. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Fighterbomber's call for FPV drone donations (Fighterbomber) continues to highlight reliance on public funding for some equipment, while simultaneously promoting these drones as effective. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • The announcement of a "digital archive of the SMO" (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) signals a long-term Russian strategy to control the historical narrative of the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Medvedev's statement (Colonelcassad) linking battlefield "realities" to negotiation outcomes continues to project Russian military strength and intent to dictate terms. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • ASTRA's report on VPN blocking confirms Russia's ongoing, systematic efforts to control the information environment within its borders. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Capabilities:
  • Ground Operations: Demonstrated capability for persistent offensive and "buffer zone" creation operations on the Sumy/Chernihiv border. Capable of attempting breakthroughs into new oblasts (Dnipropetrovsk). Artillery support for ground forces, demonstrated by 336th Naval Infantry Brigade strikes on Komar (previous report). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Air/Missile Strike: Sustained air operations, including tactical aviation and continued use of UAVs for reconnaissance and strike missions. Confirmed capability to strike power infrastructure in Kursk Oblast, causing blackouts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Capability to employ KABs on Sumy and Northern Kharkiv Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Capable of intercepting Ukrainian UAVs and potentially "Neptune-MD" missiles over Russian territory and the Black Sea, projecting defensive competence (previous report). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Information Warfare: Highly capable in large-scale, coordinated disinformation campaigns, particularly those exploiting highly sensitive humanitarian issues (body exchange) and questioning Ukrainian leadership's motives/foreign influence. Capable of leveraging natural events (Ostankino lightning strike - previous report) for religious/political messaging. Capable of rapidly disseminating exaggerated claims of territorial gains (Dnipropetrovsk entry - previous report) to shape narrative. Demonstrated capability for psychological intimidation through explicit threats of assassination (SBU officers - previous report). Highly capable of dehumanizing rhetoric (Старше Эдды - previous report). Explicitly promoting "re-education" of Ukrainians. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Internal Security/Damage Control: Continues to manage the aftermath of Ukrainian deep strikes (Engels oil depot - previous report) by issuing reassuring statements, even if fires persist. Initiated large-scale construction of hardened aircraft shelters (HAS) to protect high-value aviation assets (previous report), demonstrating a strategic adaptation to Ukrainian deep strike capabilities. Actively blocking VPNs to control information flow domestically. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Intentions:
  • Territorial Seizure & Strategic Breakthrough: Actively seeking to expand control on the Sumy axis by creating a "buffer zone" and pressing further advances. Continue attritional gains on the Kupyansk axis (Kindrashivka - previous report). Likely aiming to create a perception of widespread breakthroughs (Dnipropetrovsk claim - previous report) to demoralize Ukraine and boost domestic morale, even if unsubstantiated. Medvedev's statement explicitly links battlefield gains to negotiation leverage, indicating an intent to continue ground offensives to improve Russia's negotiating position. Explicit intent to enter Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Degrade Ukrainian Combat Effectiveness: Continue aviation and drone strikes on military targets and civilian areas. Maintain and advance ground offensives. Actively target Ukrainian personnel (Sumy/Chernihiv, Belgorod - previous report). Explicitly targeting SBU officers for "liquidation" to disrupt Ukrainian intelligence and counter-deep strike operations (previous report). Actively targeting Ukrainian power infrastructure in border regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Control Narrative & Undermine Support: Exploit humanitarian issues (body exchange) to demoralize Ukrainian forces and civilian population, and undermine international support for Ukraine by portraying Ukrainian leadership as uncaring or subservient to NATO. Project tactical successes (Sumy/Chernihiv operations - previous report) to boost domestic morale. Exploit perceived internal weaknesses of Ukraine (mobilization issues). Intensify dehumanizing rhetoric against Ukrainians (Basurin) to justify aggression and reduce empathy. Establish a "digital archive" to control historical narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Maintain Domestic Control & Legitimacy: Project an image of military success and effective internal management (downplaying Engels fire severity - previous report) while distracting from war-related issues. Utilize cultural/social messaging (Social Worker Day - previous report) to foster unity. Putin's upcoming Security Council meeting and awards ceremony (previous report) are designed to project stability, control, and reinforce national unity. Actively block VPNs to control domestic information flow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Courses of Action (COA):

  • MLCOA 1: Sustained and Escalated Retaliatory Saturation Attacks on Urban Centers and Critical Infrastructure, Coupled with Amplified Disinformation on Humanitarian Issues and Western Divisions, with Direct Targeting of First Responders, and New Attack Vectors (INCLUDING CHEMICAL HAZARDS AND FALSE FLAG ATROCITIES), and Targeted Degradation of Ukrainian AD (WITH INCREASED PRECISION DRONE STRIKES ON PERSONNEL/LOGISTICS), with Intensified Missile Rhetoric and Propaganda on Ukrainian Surrender, with new emphasis on Russian cross-border claims of "terrorism" and calls for tribunals, and direct diplomatic threats regarding strategic missile deployments: Russia will continue and likely intensify KAB and missile/UAV strikes on Ukrainian urban centers. The Su-35 loss in Kursk Oblast and the HUR cyberattack on Russian railway services (previous reports) will be used to justify further widespread and severe retaliatory strikes. The Ternopil explosion (previous report) will be amplified as a success. Threat of aviation weapons application in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (previous report) confirms continued air strike posture. The rapid lifting of airport restrictions in Moscow (previous report) aims to demonstrate a return to normalcy and signal continued resilience in the face of Ukrainian deep strikes, potentially masking preparations for new strikes. Concurrently, Russia will continue a persistent and aggressive information campaign, particularly regarding body/POW exchanges, blaming Ukraine for delays, exploiting any perceived Western failures or internal divisions, and amplifying claims of Ukrainian military personnel seeking surrender or demonstrating low morale. The body exchange narrative will be heavily amplified, with new statements from Старше Эдды and Alex Parker Returns (previous report), and official statements from Zakharova (previous report) questioning Zelensky's decisions. Russian diplomatic rhetoric will escalate, threatening changes to strategic arms control if Western missile deployments continue. The persistent strike on the Azot chemical plant (previous report) will lead to Russian retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian chemical or industrial facilities, or an increase in strikes with a focus on creating secondary hazards. Furthermore, Russia will escalate the dissemination of false flag narratives regarding "Ukrainian atrocities" in Russian border regions, and continue to propagate false claims of Ukrainian military retreats and military losses. Russia will continue to employ aviation munitions in contested areas and persist with multi-UAV attacks on cities like Mykolaiv and its surrounding areas, testing Ukrainian AD response. Russia will significantly increase the use of precision tactical drones (both FPV and loitering munitions) to directly target Ukrainian personnel (including under low-light/night conditions), logistics vehicles, and command and control nodes (including comms antennas) to disrupt frontline operations and inflict casualties, and will use propaganda to highlight these strikes. KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia Oblast (previous report) will continue, causing civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure. Persistent Ukrainian UAV attacks on Moscow region and other Russian territories (previous report) will continue, leading to further Russian airport restrictions and public claims of interceptions, which Russia will leverage to justify further retaliation. Russia will continue with heavy shelling, MLRS, and FPV drone attacks on civilian areas in frontline communities, particularly in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, leading to civilian casualties. The successful Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian serviceman in Nikolskoye, Belgorod Oblast (previous report), will be used as additional justification for increased retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian territory. Russian MoD claims of 4 UAVs and a "Neptune-MD" missile intercepted over Russian territory/Black Sea (previous report) will be amplified to demonstrate effectiveness of Russian AD, further justifying retaliation. Putin's Security Council meeting (previous report) will likely address internal security and deep strikes, setting conditions for further retaliation. New KAB strikes on Sumy and Northern Kharkiv Oblasts (AFU), and the power outage in Kursk Oblast (TASS) directly from a Ukrainian strike, will be used as fresh justification for large-scale retaliation. Continued focus on "re-education" and control of narrative via "digital archive" and VPN blocking (Basurin, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ASTRA) will frame these actions as necessary responses.

    • Confidence: HIGH (Further Strengthened - due to continued, explicit body exchange IO amplification by Kotsnews and Colonelcassad, continued persistent fire at Engels oil depot (previous report), new Russian MoD claims of UAV/missile interceptions (previous report) and Putin's upcoming Security Council meeting (previous report), new KAB strikes on Sumy/Northern Kharkiv, confirmed power outage in Kursk from Ukrainian strike, and continued "re-education" rhetoric and internal information control.).
    • Indicators: (Previous indicators apply). Kotsnews and Colonelcassad posts on body exchange. ASTRA photo of Engels oil depot still burning (previous report). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video/report of drone strike on Nikolskoye, Belgorod Oblast, with military casualty (previous report). TASS/Russian MoD report on 4 UAVs and "Neptune-MD" missile interception (previous report). Multiple Ukrainian sources confirm persistent fire at Engels oil depot (previous report). TASS report on Putin's Security Council meeting (previous report). AFU KAB warning for Sumy/Northern Kharkiv. TASS report on power outage in Kursk Oblast due to AFU strike. Basurin video on "re-education." Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 on "digital archive." ASTRA on VPN blocking.

  • MLCOA 2 (Ground Offensive Support with Targeted Artillery/MLRS and Pervasive Precision Drone Strikes, while Enhancing Counter-Deep Strike Internal Security and Expanding Maritime Hybrid Operations, with Enhanced Crimean Defenses, and Increased Internal Propaganda focus alongside Divisive Narratives, and Escalating Missile Rhetoric, with focus on strategic breakthrough in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and intensified pressure on Konstantinovka): Russian forces will continue to press ground offensives on existing axes, supporting them with targeted artillery, MLRS, and pervasive precision tactical drone strikes against Ukrainian positions, C2 nodes, logistics, and personnel. New drone footage of operations on Sumy direction (Два майора - previous report) confirms active ground efforts. Claimed destruction of Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" multicopter in Kharkiv direction (previous report) indicates continued counter-drone efforts to enable ground advances. Воин DV video shows continued precision drone strikes on strongholds, weapons, and equipment in Southern Donetsk (previous report). Capture of Zarya (Colonelcassad - previous report) confirms continued offensive pressure on Konstantinovka axis. The presence of M-113 APC (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 - previous report) in Kharkiv direction implies continued ground combat or reconnaissance. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 video showing border guard artillery destroying dugouts, infantry, and a UAV launch position in Kharkiv direction (previous report) confirms active ground combat and effective Ukrainian defense, but also Russian offensive presence. New video from Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shows "Anvar" special detachment conducting artillery and UAV strikes on Ukrainian positions in Sumy/Chernihiv border (previous report), confirming continued pressure for buffer zone creation. Claimed entry into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition - previous report) indicates an intent for major territorial gains, though this claim requires high verification. DeepState map showing Kindrashivka as Russian controlled (previous report) confirms continued slow but steady territorial gains on the Kupyansk axis. They will likely intensify internal security efforts to prevent and detect further Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian territory. Additionally, Russia will likely attempt to conduct further hybrid maritime operations in the Black Sea, using units like "Espanola" and FPV drones. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА video confirms "Española" unit active in Black Sea near offshore platforms (previous report), suggesting continued maritime hybrid operations. Russia will increase internal propaganda efforts focusing on state support for veterans and promoting national unity, while simultaneously allowing the amplification of divisive internal narratives. Propaganda will also highlight improvements in battlefield medical care and troop welfare, and demonstrate military effectiveness while portraying Ukrainian military failures and casualties. Russia will use diplomatic channels to escalate rhetoric regarding perceived missile threats from the West. Russian ground forces will continue offensive operations on existing axes, with a particular focus on gaining ground towards Konstantinovka, supported by aerial assets like helicopters. Russia will actively target Ukrainian UAV control points and supporting infrastructure in frontline areas to degrade Ukrainian drone capabilities. Russia will maintain or increase the tempo of ground assaults on the Pokrovsk axis, attempt to encircle Ukrainian forces in Radkovka, exploit gains in Sumy Oblast, and continue efforts to dislodge Ukrainian forces from strongholds near Hryhorivka and Andriivka. This will be heavily supported by pervasive FPV drone operations. Medvedev's statement linking negotiation outcomes to ground "realities" and specifically mentioning an "offensive in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast" (previous report) signals an intent to pursue significant territorial gains in central Ukraine. Russian intelligence services are likely tasked with identifying and eliminating key SBU officers in retaliation for successful Ukrainian deep strikes (previous report). The construction of hardened aircraft shelters at multiple airbases (previous report) indicates a long-term commitment to protecting aviation assets to support future ground operations. РБК-Україна reports Russian intentions to enter Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, confirming this as a key Russian ground objective.

    • Confidence: HIGH (Further Strengthened - due to Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition video on Sumy/Chernihiv operations and DeepState map of Kindrashivka (previous reports). The Dnipropetrovsk claim, while low confidence, indicates a high intent for aggressive ground maneuvers and propaganda. Medvedev's statement and explicit SBU assassination threats (previous report) further highlight intent for aggressive action and disruption. New satellite imagery confirms widespread construction of HAS across Russia, a key enabler for sustained ground support (previous report). РБК-Україна's new report on Russian intent in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast further solidifies this as a primary ground objective.)
    • Indicators: (Previous indicators apply). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition video on Sumy/Chernihiv border (previous report). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claim of Russian entry into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (previous report). ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 map of Kindrashivka (previous report). Операция Z report on SBU assassination threats (previous report). ТАСС/Операция Z report on Medvedev's statement linking negotiations to ground realities and Dnipropetrovsk offensive (previous report). Воин DV video of strikes on Komar (previous report). РБК-Україна reports on aircraft shelter construction with satellite imagery (previous report). РБК-Україна reports on Russian intentions in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• Ground Operations (RU): Confirmed use of specialized detachments ("Anvar") for "buffer zone" creation in border areas, combining artillery and UAVs for rapid targeting (previous report). Confirmed capture of Kindrashivka on the Kupyansk axis, indicating continued focus on attritional advances (previous report). 336th Naval Infantry Brigade demonstrating precision artillery strikes on temporary deployment points (PVD) in Komar (previous report). Explicitly confirmed intent to enter Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by Southern Defense Forces (РБК-Україна), indicating a high-level operational objective. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Information Operations (RU): Intensified and diversified the "body exchange" narrative, integrating imagery and direct accusations against Ukrainian leadership (previous report). Demonstrated ability to frame natural events as "divine signs" for propaganda purposes (previous report). Increasingly making large, unverified territorial claims (Dnipropetrovsk entry - previous report) for propaganda. New level of explicit threat against SBU officers (assassination - previous report) indicates a psychological warfare adaptation following Ukrainian deep strikes. Medvedev's political statements directly linking battlefield gains to negotiation leverage are a clear adaptation of IO for diplomatic pressure (previous report). Explicitly promoting "re-education" of Ukrainians (Basurin) and establishing a "digital archive of the SMO" (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) are new, strategic-level IO adaptations aimed at long-term control of narrative and population. Intensified VPN blocking (ASTRA) indicates adaptation to Ukrainian information penetration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Deep Strike Targeting (RU): Making specific claims of targeting senior Ukrainian officials in deep strikes (Kherson administration - previous report), potentially indicating adaptive intelligence gathering or aspirational targeting. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Demonstrated capability to strike power infrastructure in Kursk Oblast, causing blackouts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Counter-Deep Strike (RU): Confirmed large-scale construction of hardened aircraft shelters (HAS) at multiple airbases (previous report) indicates a significant, long-term adaptation to mitigate the impact of Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian aviation assets. This is a direct physical adaptation. Active VPN blocking (ASTRA) is an adaptation to counter Ukrainian information flow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Counter-drone (UKR): "Sapsan" RUPBAK warriors demonstrate effective counter-drone operations, shooting down multiple enemy UAVs (previous report). New STERNENKO videos show FPV drone units ("Posipaky," "Dyki Shershni") successfully engaging and destroying Russian drones both in flight and on the ground, representing a significant and evolving anti-drone tactical adaptation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• FPV Drone Use (UKR): 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade demonstrates highly effective FPV drone strikes against Russian personnel and motorcycles during assault attempts (previous report), confirming agile and lethal tactical application. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration supporting Defense Forces with heavy-lift drones and improvised munitions (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦) indicates increased proliferation and capability of Ukrainian offensive drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Cross-border Strikes (UKR): Successful drone strike on a Russian serviceman in Nikolskoye, Belgorod Oblast (previous report), demonstrates continued cross-border strike capability against military personnel. Ukrainian strike on power infrastructure in Kursk Oblast is a confirmed new deep strike capability against civilian infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Logistical Support (UKR): Ukrainian units proactively seeking EW equipment through fundraising demonstrates an adaptive approach to counter the pervasive Russian drone threat (previous report).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• Personnel (RU): Continued combat operations in Sumy/Chernihiv border areas and Dnipropetrovsk (claimed) imply ongoing personnel requirements and a sustained flow of forces. The elimination of a Russian ensign in Belgorod (previous report) highlights ongoing personnel losses from Ukrainian cross-border strikes. Fundraising activities for "Paratroopers" (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 - previous report) indicate that some units may rely on supplementary civilian funding for equipment, potentially highlighting localized logistical shortfalls despite overall state support. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Basurin's discussions on "re-education" and the creation of a "digital archive" (Басурин о главном, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) indicate efforts to manage human resources and societal control, which are indirectly linked to long-term sustainment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Munitions (RU): Sustained artillery and UAV strikes in Sumy/Chernihiv border areas, claimed entry into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (if true), and precision artillery strikes in Komar (previous report) indicate sufficient munitions supply for current offensive operations. KAB warnings on Sumy and Northern Kharkiv Oblasts (AFU) confirm continued availability and use of glide bombs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Logistics (RU): The persistent fire at Engels oil depot for a third day (previous report) suggests a significant and prolonged disruption to Russian fuel logistics from previous Ukrainian deep strikes, requiring sustained damage control efforts. The HUR cyberattack on Russian railways (previous report) also continues to impact Russian logistics. Ukrainian strike on power infrastructure in Kursk Oblast (TASS) indicates ongoing disruption to civilian energy grids, which can indirectly impact military logistics and the local population's ability to support operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Logistics (UKR): The success of Ukrainian FPV drone operations (31st Separate Mechanized Brigade - previous report) indicates effective supply and training for these systems. The call for EW equipment by 205th Separate Battalion (previous report) highlights a specific and urgent logistical requirement for frontline units to counter the pervasive Russian drone threat. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's efforts to supply drones and power equipment to Defense Forces (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦) demonstrate ongoing, regional logistical support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• Russian C2: Appears effective in coordinating combined arms operations on the ground (UAV/artillery integration in Sumy/Chernihiv, precision strikes in Komar - previous report), managing air defense responses to deep strikes (Engels fire control, UAV/missile intercepts - previous report), and conducting information operations (coordinated body exchange narrative, Medvedev's statements, SBU assassination threats, Putin's upcoming Security Council meeting - previous reports). Their ability to make and propagate highly significant claims (Dnipropetrovsk entry - previous report) suggests a centralized and assertive information C2. The rapid and widespread construction of hardened aircraft shelters across multiple airbases (previous report) indicates effective top-down strategic planning and resource allocation in response to Ukrainian deep strikes. The coordinated "body exchange" propaganda across multiple channels (Kotsnews, Colonelcassad) and strategic messaging from Medvedev and Basurin indicate strong centralized C2 over information operations. The continued blocking of VPNs (ASTRA) points to a high degree of control over internal information access. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian C2: Demonstrated effectiveness in coordinating counter-drone operations (Sapsan RUPBAK - previous report, STERNENKO FPV units), managing FPV drone strikes on tactical targets (31st Separate Mechanized Brigade - previous report), conducting cross-border strikes (Belgorod - previous report, Kursk power infrastructure), and maintaining transparency on battlefield control (DeepState map - previous report). The prompt analysis and public reporting of the Kherson administration strike (Colonelcassad - previous report) indicate effective ISR and information dissemination. Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office effectively documenting and reporting civilian casualties/damage in Kharkiv (previous report). Coordination Headquarters for POWs is actively managing and countering Russian IO on sensitive issues (previous report). Oleh Syniehubov's immediate public updates on Kharkiv recovery and Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's publicizing of logistical support demonstrate effective regional C2 and public outreach. The Ombudsman's reaction to the TCC incident indicates an effective internal accountability mechanism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Air Defense: Continues to demonstrate effectiveness in counter-drone operations (Sapsan RUPBAK - previous report). New STERNENKO videos confirm specialized FPV drone units actively engaging and destroying Russian aerial and ground drone assets, indicating an evolving and highly effective counter-drone capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Russian claims of "Neptune-MD" missile interception (previous report) suggest ongoing Ukrainian maritime missile capability, indicating readiness for naval strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ground Forces: Actively engaged in repelling Russian assaults and inflicting casualties using FPV drones (31st Separate Mechanized Brigade in Dnipropetrovsk - previous report). Maintaining defensive lines on axes like Kupyansk despite Russian advances (Kindrashivka - previous report). The 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade remains active on the Eastern direction, supporting ongoing operations (previous report). Territorial Defense units (205th Separate Battalion - previous report) are actively seeking necessary equipment (EW), indicating a proactive and adaptive posture. Southern Defense Forces are successfully breaking Russian attempts to enter Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating strong defensive readiness and combat effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The Ugledar police station incident involving former convicts (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) highlights potential internal security challenges for forces operating in liberated/frontline areas, requiring attention to stabilization and law enforcement. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
• Deep Strike Capabilities: Continued effective cross-border drone strikes against military personnel in Russian territory (Nikolskoye, Belgorod - previous report). New confirmed strike on power infrastructure in Kursk Oblast causing blackouts demonstrates a broadened target set and continued deep strike reach. The persistent fire at Engels oil depot for three days (previous report) confirms the significant, sustained impact of Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Overall Readiness: High, with continued tactical successes despite persistent Russian pressure and ongoing large-scale Russian deep strike retaliations. Units are actively identifying and addressing equipment needs. Regional military administrations (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) are actively providing critical support, bolstering overall readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes:
  • Counter-drone: "Sapsan" RUPBAK warriors shot down 5 enemy drones in Donetsk Oblast (previous report). STERNENKO videos show FPV drone units successfully destroying Russian drones (reconnaissance/loitering munition) both in flight and on the ground. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • FPV Drone Strikes: 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade successfully used FPV drones to strike multiple Russian personnel and motorcycles during an assault attempt (previous report). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration is actively supplying heavy-lift drones and improvised munitions, indicating increased operational capacity for such strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Cross-border Strike: Successful drone strike eliminated a Russian serviceman in Nikolskoye, Belgorod Oblast (previous report). New confirmed strike on power infrastructure in Rylsky, Glushkovsky, and Korenevsky municipalities of Kursk Oblast, causing blackouts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Deep Strike Impact: Persistent fire at Engels oil depot for three days (previous report) confirms significant and sustained impact from previous Ukrainian deep strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Ground Defense: Southern Defense Forces are successfully breaking Russian attempts to enter Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Maritime Strike (Claimed): Russian MoD claims interception of a "Neptune-MD" missile over Black Sea (previous report), implying successful Ukrainian launch. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Russian claim of interception, but positive for Ukrainian launch capability).
• Setbacks:
  • Territorial Loss: Russian forces have established an "enclave" in Kindrashivka on the Kupyansk axis (previous report), indicating a confirmed, albeit limited, territorial loss. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Civilian Casualties/Damage: Russian strikes in Kharkiv Oblast injured four civilians (previous report) and caused significant damage to civilian infrastructure (Oleh Syniehubov photos). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Persistent Ground Pressure: Russian forces are actively engaging in "buffer zone" creation operations in Sumy/Chernihiv border areas (previous report), and conducting precision strikes in Komar (previous report), and are attempting to enter Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating continued pressure on these fronts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Deep Strike Casualties (Unconfirmed): Russian claims of a meeting of senior Ukrainian officials being targeted in the Kherson administration strike (previous report), if true, would represent a significant setback in terms of leadership casualties. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
  • Propaganda Disruption: Russia's intense "body exchange" propaganda campaign, particularly the increasingly dehumanizing rhetoric (previous report, Kotsnews, Colonelcassad), poses a challenge to Ukrainian morale and international support. Basurin's "re-education" rhetoric is a new, aggressive aspect of this psychological warfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Threat to Leadership: Explicit Russian threats to assassinate senior SBU officers (previous report) pose a direct security risk to Ukrainian intelligence leadership. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Internal Issues: The illegal detention of a combat medic by TCC in Chernivtsi Oblast (РБК-Україна) highlights internal issues with mobilization processes that can impact public trust and military morale. The Ugledar police station incident (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) points to potential internal security challenges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for event, MEDIUM for broader impact).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Air Defense: Continued threat of Russian drones and artillery (Sumy/Chernihiv, Komar - previous report) and missiles (previous report, "Neptune-MD" interception claims) underscores ongoing need for robust AD systems and munitions. KAB warnings for Sumy and Northern Kharkiv Oblasts highlight continuous demand for effective AD against glide bombs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ground Forces: Ongoing combat (Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy/Chernihiv, Kupyansk, Komar - previous report) requires continuous supply of munitions, FPV drones, and replacement personnel. The public call for EW equipment by a TD Brigade (previous report) highlights a critical need for counter-drone capabilities at the tactical level. The need for continued support with drones and power generation equipment, as demonstrated by Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration, indicates high demand for these resources across the front. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Counter-Information Warfare: Significant resources needed to counter the intense and sophisticated Russian propaganda campaigns, particularly those focused on sensitive humanitarian issues, dehumanization, direct threats, and historical revisionism (e.g., "digital archive"). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• ISR: Increased need for ISR to verify Russian claims of territorial gains (Dnipropetrovsk) and to assess the impact of Ukrainian strikes (Kherson administration, Engels - previous report, Kursk power infrastructure). Ongoing monitoring of Russian aircraft shelter construction requires persistent IMINT (previous report). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Force Protection: Heightened need for security measures for senior SBU personnel following explicit Russian threats. Increased vigilance for internal security given incidents like Ugledar police station. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian Propaganda (Internal & External):
  • Demonizing Ukraine/Humanitarian Issues: Старше Эдды and Alex Parker Returns (previous report) have been spearheading an intensified, coordinated effort to falsely claim Ukraine refuses to accept the bodies of its fallen soldiers, explicitly framing it as a psychological blow to Ukrainian propaganda and Zelensky, using grotesquely dehumanizing language ("frozen khokhols" rising to destroy Kryvyi Rih). This is now being heavily amplified by Kotsnews, claiming Ukraine "again refused" 1212 bodies, and by Colonelcassad, who claims Budanov is being "forced" to accept them. This aims to demoralize Ukrainian forces and delegitimize Ukrainian leadership and international support. The "Realities of our times" meme (previous report) also dehumanizes foreign fighters and Ukrainian soldiers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Projecting Stability & Control: TASS reports on Putin's upcoming Security Council meeting and awards ceremony (previous report) aim to project an image of strong leadership and national cohesion. TASS/MoD publicly acknowledging Russian PVO intercepts of Ukrainian UAVs and a "Neptune-MD" missile over Russia/Black Sea (previous report) is designed to reassure the domestic audience of effective defense. The announcement of a "digital archive of the SMO" (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) is a long-term strategy to control the historical narrative and solidify state legitimacy. Ongoing VPN blocking (ASTRA) is a direct measure to control information access and prevent alternative narratives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Psychological Intimidation: Операция Z explicitly threatens the "liquidation" of high-ranking SBU officers (previous report) following Ukrainian deep strikes, aimed at sowing fear and disrupting Ukrainian intelligence. Basurin's video (Басурин о главном) explicitly discusses "re-education" of Ukrainians, a chilling and aggressive piece of psychological warfare aimed at coercion and forced assimilation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Tactical Successes (Propaganda): Воин DV publicizes the 336th Naval Infantry Brigade's artillery strikes on Ukrainian PVD in Komar (previous report) to demonstrate precision and effectiveness. Medvedev's statements (Операция Z, TASS - previous report) explicitly connect Russian ground advances (e.g., claimed entry into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - previous report) to future negotiation positions, shaping the narrative of Russian military success and creating "new realities on the ground." Fighterbomber's call for FPV drone donations (Fighterbomber) implicitly highlights the effectiveness of these drones, even as it reveals logistical reliance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for intent, LOW for Dnipropetrovsk claim's veracity, MEDIUM for Kherson claim's veracity - previous report).
  • Internal Cohesion: The AI-generated "We don't need peace without Russia" video from «Зона СВО» (previous report) is a clear attempt to foster aggressive patriotism and unity. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's fundraising video (previous report), while revealing some logistical strain, also promotes unit cohesion and a sense of shared purpose. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Acknowledging Ukrainian Deep Strikes (indirectly): РБК-Україна's report on Russia building aircraft shelters (previous report), though from a Ukrainian source, confirms Russia's recognition of the deep strike threat and its efforts to mitigate it. TASS directly confirms Ukrainian strike on power infrastructure in Kursk Oblast, acknowledging the impact of Ukrainian deep strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian Counter-Propaganda/Information Operations:
  • Highlighting Russian Brutality/Losses: Офіс Генерального прокурора documents civilian casualties and damage in Kharkiv (previous report), providing evidence of Russian war crimes. Oleh Syniehubov's public photos of Kharkiv recovery efforts reinforce the civilian impact of Russian strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Exposing Russian Disinformation: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими directly addresses Russian "information pressure" and "unilateral dictation" regarding POW/body exchanges (previous report), publicly refuting Russian narratives. The Ombudsman's reaction to the TCC detention incident in Chernivtsi (РБК-Україна) demonstrates institutional transparency and an effort to address internal issues, countering potential Russian exploitation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Showcasing Ukrainian Capabilities & Needs: The persistent fire at Engels oil depot (previous report), confirmed by multiple Ukrainian sources, continues to highlight the effectiveness of Ukrainian deep strikes. Zvиздец Мангусту's fundraising call for EW equipment (previous report) transparently communicates a real battlefield need and encourages public support. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦's sharing of unit activities (22nd Mechanized Brigade - previous report) builds public trust and morale. STERNENKO's videos of FPV drone units successfully destroying Russian aerial and ground drones are highly effective in showcasing Ukrainian innovation and tactical success. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's publicizing of aid to Defense Forces highlights effective regional support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Responding to Russian Claims: Ukrainian analysts are actively monitoring and implicitly debunking (by assigning low confidence) Russian claims like entering Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (previous report). РБК-Україна directly reports on Russian intentions in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, confirming the threat but emphasizing successful Ukrainian defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Negative Impact (UKR): Continued ground pressure on the Sumy/Chernihiv border, territorial losses (Kindrashivka - previous report), and Russian claims of breakthroughs (Dnipropetrovsk - previous report) will contribute to fear and anxiety among the population. The intense Russian "body exchange" propaganda, particularly the dehumanizing rhetoric (previous report, Kotsnews, Colonelcassad), is designed to demoralize troops and civilians. Unconfirmed claims of targeting senior officials (Kherson - previous report) may create uncertainty. Explicit Russian threats against SBU leadership (previous report) add to the psychological pressure. Civilian casualties in Kharkiv (previous report, Oleh Syniehubov photos) will undoubtedly impact local morale. The Ugledar police station incident (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) and the TCC detention of a combat medic (РБК-Україна) expose internal security and mobilization challenges that can undermine public trust and morale if not addressed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Mixed Impact (RU): The "body exchange" propaganda aims to boost Russian morale by demonizing Ukraine. The claim of entering Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (previous report) and Medvedev's statements (previous report), if believed, would significantly boost domestic morale. Downplaying the Engels fire severity (previous report) aims to maintain public confidence in internal security. The framing of the Ostankino lightning strike with religious/political overtones (previous report) seeks to reinforce national unity. Tactical successes (Sumy/Chernihiv operations - previous report, Komar strikes - previous report) will bolster morale. Publicizing aircraft shelter construction (previous report) reinforces a sense of security against Ukrainian deep strikes. However, calls for donations for military equipment (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 - previous report, Fighterbomber) could signal to the domestic audience that the state is not fully providing for all units, potentially impacting confidence. The protest in Argayash, Chelyabinsk Oblast, regarding domestic violence (ASTRA - previous report) indicates that internal social issues persist and can draw public attention, potentially distracting from the war narrative, though its direct impact on war morale is low. The confirmation of power outages in Kursk Oblast due to Ukrainian strikes (TASS) could cause public anxiety in border regions. VPN blocking (ASTRA) may create resentment among some segments of the population due to restricted information access. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Russian propaganda campaigns, particularly on the body exchange (Старше Эдды, Alex Parker Returns - previous report, Kotsnews, Colonelcassad), and Medvedev's statements (previous report), are clearly designed to undermine international support for Ukraine by portraying Ukrainian leadership as inhumane or controlled by NATO, and projecting Russian military strength as a "new reality." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• The persistence of the Engels oil depot fire (previous report) and the new power outage in Kursk Oblast (TASS) could prompt renewed international scrutiny of Russia's ability to protect critical infrastructure, and highlight the effectiveness of Ukrainian deep strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian threats to assassinate SBU officers (previous report) and Basurin's open discussion of "re-education" of Ukrainians (Басурин о главном) could provoke international condemnation and highlight Russia's disregard for international law and norms. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Putin's upcoming Security Council meeting (previous report) may address international and internal security issues, potentially shaping future Russian diplomatic posture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian public acknowledgment of building aircraft shelters (previous report) highlights the long-term nature of the conflict and Russia's investment in defense, influencing international perceptions of its resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• The Coordination Headquarters for POWs' statement on "information pressure" and attempts to "unilaterally dictate" exchange terms (previous report) clearly targets the international community, seeking support for Ukraine's principled stance. Ukrainian Ombudsman's reaction to the TCC detention (РБК-Україна) could be used to demonstrate Ukraine's commitment to human rights and rule of law, potentially bolstering international confidence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• MLCOA 1: Sustained and Escalated Retaliatory Saturation Attacks on Urban Centers and Critical Infrastructure, Coupled with Amplified Disinformation on Humanitarian Issues and Western Divisions, with Direct Targeting of First Responders, and New Attack Vectors (INCLUDING CHEMICAL HAZARDS AND FALSE FLAG ATROCITIES), and Targeted Degradation of Ukrainian AD (WITH INCREASED PRECISION DRONE STRIKES ON PERSONNEL/LOGISTICS), with Intensified Missile Rhetoric and Propaganda on Ukrainian Surrender, with new emphasis on Russian cross-border claims of "terrorism" and calls for tribunals, and direct diplomatic threats regarding strategic missile deployments: Russia will continue and likely intensify KAB and missile/UAV strikes on Ukrainian urban centers. The Su-35 loss in Kursk Oblast and the HUR cyberattack on Russian railway services (previous reports) will be used to justify further widespread and severe retaliatory strikes. The Ternopil explosion (previous report) will be amplified as a success. Threat of aviation weapons application in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (previous report) confirms continued air strike posture. The rapid lifting of airport restrictions in Moscow (previous report) aims to demonstrate a return to normalcy and signal continued resilience in the face of Ukrainian deep strikes, potentially masking preparations for new strikes. Concurrently, Russia will continue a persistent and aggressive information campaign, particularly regarding body/POW exchanges, blaming Ukraine for delays, exploiting any perceived Western failures or internal divisions, and amplifying claims of Ukrainian military personnel seeking surrender or demonstrating low morale. The body exchange narrative will be heavily amplified, with new statements from Старше Эдды and Alex Parker Returns (previous report), and official statements from Zakharova (previous report) questioning Zelensky's decisions. Russian diplomatic rhetoric will escalate, threatening changes to strategic arms control if Western missile deployments continue. The persistent strike on the Azot chemical plant (previous report) will lead to Russian retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian chemical or industrial facilities, or an increase in strikes with a focus on creating secondary hazards. Furthermore, Russia will escalate the dissemination of false flag narratives regarding "Ukrainian atrocities" in Russian border regions, and continue to propagate false claims of Ukrainian military retreats and military losses. Russia will continue to employ aviation munitions in contested areas and persist with multi-UAV attacks on cities like Mykolaiv and its surrounding areas, testing Ukrainian AD response. Russia will significantly increase the use of precision tactical drones (both FPV and loitering munitions) to directly target Ukrainian personnel (including under low-light/night conditions), logistics vehicles, and command and control nodes (including comms antennas) to disrupt frontline operations and inflict casualties, and will use propaganda to highlight these strikes. KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia Oblast (previous report) will continue, causing civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure. Persistent Ukrainian UAV attacks on Moscow region and other Russian territories (previous report) will continue, leading to further Russian airport restrictions and public claims of interceptions, which Russia will leverage to justify further retaliation. Russia will continue with heavy shelling, MLRS, and FPV drone attacks on civilian areas in frontline communities, particularly in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, leading to civilian casualties. The successful Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian serviceman in Nikolskoye, Belgorod Oblast (previous report), will be used as additional justification for increased retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian territory. Russian MoD claims of 4 UAVs and a "Neptune-MD" missile intercepted over Russian territory/Black Sea (previous report) will be amplified to demonstrate effectiveness of Russian AD, further justifying retaliation. Putin's Security Council meeting (previous report) will likely address internal security and deep strikes, setting conditions for further retaliation. New KAB strikes on Sumy and Northern Kharkiv Oblasts (AFU), and the power outage in Kursk Oblast (TASS) directly from a Ukrainian strike, will be used as fresh justification for large-scale retaliation. Continued focus on "re-education" and control of narrative via "digital archive" and VPN blocking (Basurin, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ASTRA) will frame these actions as necessary responses. Continued focus on the "body exchange" narrative by Kotsnews and Colonelcassad will provide continuous IO justification. * Confidence: HIGH (Further Strengthened - due to continued, explicit body exchange IO amplification by Kotsnews and Colonelcassad, continued persistent fire at Engels oil depot (previous report), new Russian MoD claims of UAV/missile interceptions (previous report) and Putin's upcoming Security Council meeting (previous report), new KAB strikes on Sumy/Northern Kharkiv, confirmed power outage in Kursk from Ukrainian strike, and continued "re-education" rhetoric and internal information control. Oleh Syniehubov's photos of Kharkiv damage provide additional immediate justification for Russian retaliation.). * Indicators: (Previous indicators apply). Kotsnews and Colonelcassad posts on body exchange. ASTRA photo of Engels oil depot still burning (previous report). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video/report of drone strike on Nikolskoye, Belgorod Oblast, with military casualty (previous report). TASS/Russian MoD report on 4 UAVs and "Neptune-MD" missile interception (previous report). Multiple Ukrainian sources confirm persistent fire at Engels oil depot (previous report). TASS report on Putin's Security Council meeting (previous report). AFU KAB warning for Sumy/Northern Kharkiv. TASS report on power outage in Kursk Oblast due to AFU strike. Basurin video on "re-education." Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 on "digital archive." ASTRA on VPN blocking. Oleh Syniehubov's photos of damaged Kharkiv infrastructure.

• MLCOA 2 (Ground Offensive Support with Targeted Artillery/MLRS and Pervasive Precision Drone Strikes, while Enhancing Counter-Deep Strike Internal Security and Expanding Maritime Hybrid Operations, with Enhanced Crimean Defenses, and Increased Internal Propaganda focus alongside Divisive Narratives, and Escalating Missile Rhetoric, with focus on strategic breakthrough in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and intensified pressure on Konstantinovka): Russian forces will continue to press ground offensives on existing axes, supporting them with targeted artillery, MLRS, and pervasive precision tactical drone strikes against Ukrainian positions, C2 nodes, logistics, and personnel. New drone footage of operations on Sumy direction (Два майора - previous report) confirms active ground efforts. Claimed destruction of Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" multicopter in Kharkiv direction (previous report) indicates continued counter-drone efforts to enable ground advances. Воин DV video shows continued precision drone strikes on strongholds, weapons, and equipment in Southern Donetsk (previous report). Capture of Zarya (Colonelcassad - previous report) confirms continued offensive pressure on Konstantinovka axis. The presence of M-113 APC (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 - previous report) in Kharkiv direction implies continued ground combat or reconnaissance. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 video showing border guard artillery destroying dugouts, infantry, and a UAV launch position in Kharkiv direction (previous report) confirms active ground combat and effective Ukrainian defense, but also Russian offensive presence. New video from Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shows "Anvar" special detachment conducting artillery and UAV strikes on Ukrainian positions in Sumy/Chernihiv border (previous report), confirming continued pressure for buffer zone creation. Claimed entry into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition - previous report) indicates an intent for major territorial gains, though this claim requires high verification. DeepState map showing Kindrashivka as Russian controlled (previous report) confirms continued slow but steady territorial gains on the Kupyansk axis. They will likely intensify internal security efforts to prevent and detect further Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian territory. Additionally, Russia will likely attempt to conduct further hybrid maritime operations in the Black Sea, using units like "Espanola" and FPV drones. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА video confirms "Española" unit active in Black Sea near offshore platforms (previous report), suggesting continued maritime hybrid operations. Russia will increase internal propaganda efforts focusing on state support for veterans and promoting national unity, while simultaneously allowing the amplification of divisive internal narratives. Propaganda will also highlight improvements in battlefield medical care and troop welfare, and demonstrate military effectiveness while portraying Ukrainian military failures and casualties. Russia will use diplomatic channels to escalate rhetoric regarding perceived missile threats from the West. Russian ground forces will continue offensive operations on existing axes, with a particular focus on gaining ground towards Konstantinovka, supported by aerial assets like helicopters. Russia will actively target Ukrainian UAV control points and supporting infrastructure in frontline areas to degrade Ukrainian drone capabilities. Russia will maintain or increase the tempo of ground assaults on the Pokrovsk axis, attempt to encircle Ukrainian forces in Radkovka, exploit gains in Sumy Oblast, and continue efforts to dislodge Ukrainian forces from strongholds near Hryhorivka and Andriivka. This will be heavily supported by pervasive FPV drone operations. Medvedev's statement linking negotiation outcomes to ground "realities" and specifically mentioning an "offensive in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast" (previous report) signals an intent to pursue significant territorial gains in central Ukraine. Russian intelligence services are likely tasked with identifying and eliminating key SBU officers in retaliation for successful Ukrainian deep strikes (previous report). The construction of hardened aircraft shelters at multiple airbases (previous report) indicates a long-term commitment to protecting aviation assets to support future ground operations. РБК-Україна reports Russian intentions to enter Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, confirming this as a key Russian ground objective, despite Ukrainian defensive successes. The Ugledar police station incident (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС), if related to Russian operations, could indicate efforts to disrupt internal security in contested areas. * Confidence: HIGH (Further Strengthened - due to Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition video on Sumy/Chernihiv operations and DeepState map of Kindrashivka (previous reports). The Dnipropetrovsk claim, while low confidence, indicates a high intent for aggressive ground maneuvers and propaganda. Medvedev's statement and explicit SBU assassination threats (previous report) further highlight intent for aggressive action and disruption. New satellite imagery confirms widespread construction of HAS across Russia, a key enabler for sustained ground support (previous report). РБК-Україна's new report on Russian intent in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast further solidifies this as a primary ground objective. The Ugledar police station incident, if linked to Russian activity, suggests continued hybrid warfare tactics on the ground.) * Indicators: (Previous indicators apply). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition video on Sumy/Chernihiv border (previous report). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claim of Russian entry into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (previous report). ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 map of Kindrashivka (previous report). Операция Z report on SBU assassination threats (previous report). ТАСС/Операция Z report on Medvedev's statement linking negotiations to ground realities and Dnipropetrovsk offensive (previous report). Воин DV video of strikes on Komar (previous report). РБК-Україна reports on aircraft shelter construction with satellite imagery (previous report). РБК-Україна reports on Russian intentions in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС report on Ugledar police station incident.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• MDCOA 1: Renewed Large-Scale Ballistic/Cruise Missile Campaign to Cripple Ukrainian AD and Energy/Logistics Infrastructure, with Increased Focus on Chemical/Industrial Targets, and Pre-strike AD Suppression, accompanied by Escalating Missile Rhetoric leading to Actual Missile Deployments, with new emphasis on Russian cross-border claims of "terrorism" and calls for tribunals, and direct diplomatic threats regarding strategic missile deployments: Russia, despite Iskander losses (previous report), will launch a renewed, multi-wave missile and drone campaign targeting Ukraine's critical national infrastructure, with a specific emphasis on overwhelming weakened Ukrainian air defenses and inflicting widespread damage as a "revenge strike" for the Tu-22M3 and other strategic losses. The Su-35 loss in Kursk Oblast (previous report, corroborated by Russian source), the HUR cyberattack on Russian railway services (previous report), and the repeated imposition of airport restrictions in Moscow (previous report) all provide significant justification for a severe, coordinated, and disproportionate response. The aviation threat in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (previous report) indicates readiness for such strikes. The Ternopil explosion (previous report) will be amplified as a success and justification. Maria Zakharova's statements on body exchange (previous report) contribute to the information environment justifying escalation. The continued persistent fire at Engels oil depot for a third day (previous report) demonstrates the success of previous Ukrainian deep strikes but also provides a renewed rationale for Russian retaliation. The successful Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian serviceman in Nikolskoye, Belgorod Oblast (previous report), will be used as additional justification for increased retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian territory. The persistent targeting of the Azot chemical plant (previous report), now confirmed as a source for explosives in artillery shells, may trigger a significant, high-volume missile retaliation aimed at Ukraine's critical infrastructure, potentially including targets with industrial chemical significance, aiming to create secondary hazards and disrupt Ukrainian defense production. Prior to or concurrent with these strikes, Russia may conduct widespread air defense suppression operations to improve the effectiveness of their missile and drone attacks. The sustained use of aviation munitions and multi-UAV attacks could be precursors to a larger, more coordinated aerial assault. The increased activity of Russian tactical aviation in the southeastern direction could be a precursor to massed KAB strikes or a coordinated aviation strike package. The explicit statements from Russian MFA on missile deployments and the end of the moratorium could signal preparations for a new phase of strategic missile testing or even deployment in response to perceived Western threats. The increased frequency of UAV attacks on Moscow and resulting airport closures could serve as a trigger or justification for such a large-scale missile campaign, framed as necessary retaliation. The inclusion of an Oniks anti-ship missile in the recent attack (previous report) indicates Russia's willingness to use diverse, high-value missile assets, making this MDCOA even more dangerous. Russian MoD claims of intercepting 4 UAVs over Russian territory and a "Neptune-MD" missile over the Black Sea (previous report), coupled with civilian casualties in Kharkiv from Russian strikes (previous report), will be used as justification for further escalation of deep strikes. The confirmed power outage in Kursk Oblast due to a Ukrainian strike (TASS) and new KAB warnings for Sumy and Northern Kharkiv Oblasts (AFU) provide fresh, immediate justifications for a renewed large-scale missile campaign. The damage photos from Kharkiv (Oleh Syniehubov) provide visual evidence for Russian propaganda to exploit.

  • Confidence: HIGH
  • Indicators: (Previous indicators apply). Старше Эдды and Alex Parker Returns posts on body exchange (previous report). ASTRA photo of Engels oil depot still burning (previous report). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video/report of drone strike on Nikolskoye, Belgorod Oblast, with military casualty (previous report). TASS/Russian MoD report on 4 UAVs and "Neptune-MD" missile interception (previous report). Офіс Генерального прокурора report on Kharkiv civilian casualties (previous report). TASS report on Kursk power outage from AFU strike. AFU KAB warning for Sumy/Northern Kharkiv. Oleh Syniehubov's photos of Kharkiv damage.

• MDCOA 2: Attempted Strategic Breakthrough on Sumy Axis with Major Force Commitment and Massed Air Support (with Chemical Warfare consideration/False Flag Pretext), Enabled by Prior AD Suppression, or Major Breakthrough in Southern Donetsk, Supported by Increased Psychological Operations, or Accelerated Push on Konstantinovka, with a focus on Strategic Breakthrough in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and intensified pressure on Konstantinovka to link up with forces advancing on that axis: Russia commits substantial additional reserves to the Sumy axis, initiating a rapid, decisive breakthrough aimed at encircling or seizing Sumy city. The confirmed occupation of Loknya and further advances towards Sumy city (ISW map - previous report) indicate a clear Russian intent and successful tactical advance on this axis, making a larger strategic push more dangerous. New drone footage of operations on Sumy direction (Два майора - previous report) reinforces this assessment. The presence of M-113 APC in Kharkiv direction (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 - previous report) indicates Russian offensive presence in the region. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 video confirming Ukrainian border guard artillery destroying a UAV launch position and infantry/dugouts in Kharkiv direction (previous report), indicates active Russian offensive attempts that could escalate. New video from Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shows "Anvar" special detachment conducting artillery and UAV strikes on Ukrainian positions in Sumy/Chernihiv border (previous report), reinforcing intent for a buffer zone. The claim of Russian army entering Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition - previous report), while low confidence, signals an intent for a major strategic push into central Ukraine that would be highly dangerous if realized. DeepState map showing Kindrashivka as Russian controlled (previous report) confirms continued slow but steady territorial gains on the Kupyansk axis, indicating Russian capability for attritional advances that could be scaled up. This would involve overwhelming combined arms force, massed KAB strikes to suppress Ukrainian defenses, and deep strikes to neutralize Ukrainian command and control and logistics in the region. This would be significantly facilitated by prior air defense suppression operations. Given the recent persistent strike on the Azot chemical plant (previous report), and Russia's past false flag attempts regarding chemical weapons, there is a low but non-zero risk of Russia preparing to conduct an operation with chemical munitions or a "dirty bomb" in the context of a strategic breakthrough, or blame Ukraine for such an event, potentially fabricating evidence. Alternatively, Russia could concentrate forces for a strategic breakthrough in the Southern Donetsk direction, leveraging claimed gains around Stupochky, Hryhorivka, and Andriivka (previous report) to expand an offensive aimed at a larger operational objective. This would be supported by amplified psychological operations claiming mass Ukrainian surrenders or demoralization to undermine resistance. An accelerated and decisive push to seize Konstantinovka, leveraging massed fire and air support, could also occur, aimed at disrupting Ukrainian logistics in the Donetsk region. Given the continued high intensity of ground assaults on Pokrovsk and Southern Donetsk, the confirmed advances in Sumy, and the confirmed effectiveness of Russian FPV drones in targeting Ukrainian armor and manpower, a multi-axis strategic push to achieve significant territorial gains in the East and Northeast, potentially supported by overwhelming drone and air assets, is a highly dangerous possibility that warrants close monitoring. Воин DV video shows continued precision drone strikes on strongholds, weapons, and equipment in Southern Donetsk (previous report), indicating continued pressure. Colonelcassad's video of Zarya capture (previous report) confirms concrete territorial gains in Donetsk, reinforcing potential for larger breakthroughs. The active maritime operations by the "Española" unit (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА - previous report) could be precursors to or support for a broader coastal/land offensive. Claimed destruction of "Baba Yaga" multicopter in Kharkiv direction (previous report) aims to degrade Ukrainian ISR/strike capabilities for ground operations. Medvedev's statement explicitly linking "new realities on the ground" to negotiation outcomes, especially mentioning Dnipropetrovsk (previous report), suggests a strategic imperative for significant territorial gains that could manifest as this MDCOA. The explicit threat to eliminate senior SBU officers (previous report) indicates a willingness to remove key opposition figures to facilitate such a breakthrough. РБК-Україна's report on Russian intentions to enter Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, despite Ukrainian defense, reinforces this as a high-priority ground objective. The Ugledar police station incident (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) may indicate a heightened readiness to disrupt internal security as part of such a push.

  • Confidence: HIGH
  • Indicators: (Previous indicators apply). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition video on Sumy/Chernihiv border (previous report). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claim of Russian entry into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (previous report). ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 map of Kindrashivka (previous report). Операция Z report on SBU assassination threats (previous report). ТАСС/Операция Z report on Medvedev's statement linking negotiations to ground realities and Dnipropetrovsk offensive (previous report). Воин DV video of strikes on Komar (previous report). РБК-Україна reports on Russian intentions in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС report on Ugledar police station incident.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Next 24-48 Hours (Short-Term):

  • Immediate Retaliation/Sustained Attacks: A major "revenge strike" by Russia for recent deep strike losses (Su-35 in Kursk, HUR cyberattack on railway, ongoing airport restrictions in Moscow, persistent Engels oil depot fire - previous reports) and the successful drone strike on a Russian serviceman in Nikolskoye, Belgorod Oblast (previous report), and the confirmed power outage in Kursk Oblast due to a Ukrainian strike (TASS), is highly likely within this timeframe, possibly initiating at night with a large UAV swarm followed by missile strikes at dawn. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS's previous warning of a "massive combined strike" remains highly relevant. Expect continued, possibly intensified, KAB and missile/UAV attacks on Kharkiv (given recent casualties and damage, Oleh Syniehubov photos), Sumy (new KAB warning), Zaporizhzhia (new aviation threat warning - previous report), Mykolaiv, Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Ternopil (Ternopil explosion already recorded - previous report), and Northern Donetsk Oblasts, with heightened risk of targeting first responders and civilian infrastructure. Expect continued Russian propaganda amplifying Western divisions and escalating false flag narratives regarding Ukrainian "atrocities" in Russian border regions, alongside false claims of Ukrainian retreats and military losses, and claims of mass Ukrainian surrender appeals. The body exchange narrative will be heavily amplified by official Russian sources (Maria Zakharova - previous report) and milbloggers (Colonelcassad, Старше Эдды, Alex Parker Returns - previous report, Kotsnews), likely with new fabricated evidence or emotionally manipulative content, potentially including further imagery of refrigerator units. Expect new, explicit threats against Ukrainian leadership, particularly SBU officers (previous report), following Ukrainian deep strikes. Expect Russian MoD to amplify claims of successful AD interceptions of Ukrainian UAVs (e.g., the 4 UAVs today - previous report) and missiles (e.g., "Neptune-MD" - previous report) to justify retaliation and project defensive strength. Expect continued and increased precision drone strikes (FPV and loitering munitions) on Ukrainian personnel, vehicles, logistics, and command/communication nodes, including night operations. Expect continued Russian diplomatic rhetoric regarding missile deployments to put pressure on Western allies. Persistent Ukrainian UAV attacks on Moscow region and other Russian territories (previous report) will continue, leading to further Russian airport restrictions and public claims of interceptions, which Russia will leverage to justify further retaliation. Civilian casualties in Zaporizhzhia Oblast from Russian attacks are highly likely. Expect continued heavy shelling, MLRS, and FPV drone attacks on civilian areas in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Expect Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian UAV ground infrastructure. Expect continued high tempo of Russian ground assaults, particularly on the Sumy axis (Два майора drone footage - previous report, M-113 APC in Kharkiv direction - previous report, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition video on Sumy/Chernihiv border - previous report, new KAB warning for Sumy), Southern Donetsk (Воин DV drone footage - previous report, strikes on Komar - previous report), Konstantinovka axis (Zarya capture by Colonelcassad - previous report), and Kupyansk axis (Kindrashivka as Russian controlled by DeepState map - previous report). Expect continued Russian maritime special operations in the Black Sea ("Española" unit - previous report). Expect Russian counter-drone operations, including targeting of "Baba Yaga" type drones and Sapsan RUPBAK efforts (previous report, STERNENKO FPV units). Russian milbloggers will attempt to confirm or propagate claims of Russian entry into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Medvedev's statement on "new realities on the ground" in Dnipropetrovsk (previous report) will be emphasized. Basurin's discussions on "re-education" and the creation of a "digital archive of the SMO" (Басурин о главном, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) will continue to shape the domestic information environment. ASTRA confirms continued Russian efforts to block VPNs.
  • Decision Point (UKR): Prioritize air defense assets to protect key urban centers and critical infrastructure, especially in anticipation of the forecasted "revenge strike" and given the new aviation threat in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and the Belgorod drone strike (previous report), the Kursk power outage, and KAB warnings for Sumy/Northern Kharkiv. Immediately counter Russian disinformation on body exchanges, particularly the official statements from Maria Zakharova (previous report), Colonelcassad's video (previous report), Старше Эдды's statements (previous report), Alex Parker Returns' imagery (previous report), and Kotsnews's new video, providing transparent, factual information and exposing dehumanizing language. Immediately respond to explicit Russian threats against SBU officers (previous report), reinforcing security and demonstrating resolve. Immediately verify and respond to any new Russian claims of territorial gains on the Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, or Donetsk axes, specifically the Komar strikes (previous report). Immediately verify "Neptune-MD" missile interception claim and assess implications (previous report). Enhance local AD and EW capabilities against persistent multi-UAV threats and increased kamikaze drone attacks in the South. Implement immediate countermeasures and enhanced force protection against precision tactical drone strikes (FPV/overhead) targeting personnel, vehicles, and C2/communications. Formulate a response to Russian diplomatic statements regarding missile deployments. Monitor the impact of UAV attacks on Moscow region and other Russian territories (previous report) and be prepared for potential shifts in Russian retaliatory targets or intensity. Assess the impact of Russian shelling and FPV drone attacks on civilian populations. Verify Russian claims of destroying UAV ground infrastructure. Allocate reserves to defend against sustained Russian assaults on Sumy, Dnipropetrop-sk, and Donetsk axes, leveraging successes from Kharkiv border guard artillery engagements (previous report) and the 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade's FPV strikes (previous report). Publicly acknowledge and leverage the successful HUR cyberattack on Russian railway services (previous report) and the Su-35 destruction (previous report). Publicly acknowledge the successful counter-drone operations by Sapsan RUPBAK (previous report) and the successful FPV strikes by 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade (previous report, STERNENKO FPV units). Publicly acknowledge the drone strike on the Russian serviceman in Nikolskoye, Belgorod Oblast (previous report). Address the internal mobilization issue transparently. Address the Ugledar police station incident and the TCC detention of a combat medic transparently to maintain public trust. Continue publicizing Kharkiv recovery efforts (Oleh Syniehubov) and logistical support (Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration).

• Next 72 Hours (Medium-Term):

  • Decision Point (UKR): Evaluate the full impact of Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian logistics/production and prepare for potential severe retaliatory strikes, especially after the Su-35 loss, HUR cyberattack, and Belgorod drone strike (previous reports), and the persistent Engels oil depot fire (previous report), and the Kursk power outage. Re-evaluate and adapt ground force deployments on the Sumy axis, considering confirmed Russian drone activity and the M-113 APC presence (previous reports), and the activities of "Anvar" special detachment (previous report), and new KAB warnings. Expedite high-level diplomatic engagement regarding AD systems. Monitor and respond to escalating Russian disinformation campaigns targeting Western unity and Ukrainian credibility, especially the ongoing body exchange narrative and its amplification by official Russian sources and milbloggers (previous report, Kotsnews, Colonelcassad). Address the Ternopil explosion (previous report) and Russian propaganda framing. Verify and counter the highly significant claim of Russian entry into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (previous report, РБК-Україна's report). Re-assess defensive lines in Southern Donetsk and Konstantinovka based on verified Russian gains or false claims (Zarya capture - previous report), and the Kupyansk axis based on Kindrashivka's status (previous report). Conduct a comprehensive review of anti-drone TTPs and equipment needs for ground forces, prioritizing rapid procurement and deployment, particularly against pervasive FPV/overhead threats. Prioritize the acquisition of EW equipment for frontline units, learning from the 205th Separate Battalion's appeal (previous report). Assess the implications of Ryabkov's statements on strategic stability and missile proliferation for Ukraine's defense posture and diplomatic efforts. Assess the broader impact of persistent Ukrainian deep strikes into Russia on Russian military decision-making and public sentiment. Analyze Russian milblogger sentiment and appeals for donations (previous report, Fighterbomber) to gauge broader internal shifts in Russian public perception of the war and logistical shortfalls. Evaluate new patterns of Russian shelling/FPV drone use on civilian targets and adapt local defenses. Coordinate with international partners regarding projected Russian retaliation. Analyze Russian efforts to exploit civilian damages for propaganda. Continue to monitor and disrupt Russian activity in occupied territories. Adapt national domestic policies regarding military service and international travel based on public sentiment. Assess capabilities and intentions of "Española" unit in Black Sea. Continue to monitor and publicly address internal mobilization issues. Conduct ISR on Russian aircraft shelter construction at all 14 identified airbases (previous report) to understand the scale and speed of this strategic adaptation. Implement specific countermeasures against Russian information control efforts, particularly VPN blocking (ASTRA).
  • Intelligence Gap: Full BDA on the claimed "Neptune-MD" missile interception (e.g., confirmation of variant, intended target). Detailed assessment of Russian AD performance against all 4 UAVs and the missile. Full scope of Russian strategic adaptations to Ukrainian deep strikes beyond HAS construction. Full BDA on Kursk Oblast power infrastructure strike. Specifics of "re-education" programs and their implementation. Comprehensive assessment of impact of VPN blocking on Russian population and information flow.

• Next 1 Week (Near-Term Strategic):

  • Decision Point (UKR): Evaluate the overall effectiveness of Ukrainian deep strike campaign on Russian military-industrial complex and logistics, considering the sustained fire at Engels oil depot (previous report) and the Kursk power outage. Continue to optimize air defense deployments. Intensify intelligence collection on Russian strategic aviation, air defense assets, potential dispersal efforts, and maritime special operations ("Española" unit - previous report). Prioritize resources for the Sumy axis if Russian pressure continues, potentially initiating pre-emptive civilian evacuation planning, and the Kupyansk axis given Kindrashivka (previous report). Reinforce maritime security measures in the Black Sea and Azov Sea, given new FPV activity. Conduct a comprehensive review of all critical Ukrainian industrial facilities, particularly chemical plants, for vulnerability assessment and hardening measures against potential Russian retaliatory strikes. Develop long-term strategies to counter Russian information warfare, including a robust response to narratives aimed at undermining military morale through surrender claims or corruption allegations, and countering dehumanizing rhetoric. Conduct a strategic review of defensive lines in Southern Donetsk and Konstantinovka, considering potential further Russian advances (Zarya capture - previous report, Komar strikes). Develop and implement a comprehensive, long-term strategy for countering Russian pervasive tactical drone threats, including layered defenses, training, and technological innovation. Prepare for potential shifts in the international arms control landscape and their impact on Ukraine's long-term security. Assess how the continued high-frequency UAV attacks on Russian territory influence Russian strategic calculations and their willingness to escalate. Develop specific countermeasures against Russian attempts to target Ukrainian UAV control infrastructure and communication nodes. Continue to monitor and respond to evolving Russian internal propaganda strategies. Conduct comprehensive wargaming and strategic planning based on potential major Russian offensives aimed at significant territorial gains, especially on the Sumy, Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, and Orikhiv, Kupyansk, and potentially Dnipropetrovsk axes, incorporating lessons from the confirmed effectiveness of Russian FPV/overhead drones against Ukrainian armor and manpower. Assess the impact of Ukrainian OTRK serial production on the strategic balance and future offensive capabilities. Address internal mobilization issues proactively and transparently. Develop counter-narratives and security protocols specifically addressing explicit Russian threats against SBU and other Ukrainian leadership. Assess the long-term impact of "digital archive of the SMO" on Russian internal information environment and historical memory. Analyze the effect of VPN blocking on Russian dissent and public opinion.
  • Intelligence Gap: Long-term impact of HAS construction on Russian aviation readiness and operational patterns. Strategic implications of Russia's intent to target SBU leadership. Full assessment of Russian long-term information control strategy, including "re-education" and digital archiving. Effectiveness of VPN blocking.

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6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize and Augment Air Defense for Eastern, Southern, Central, Western, and Northern Urban Centers, with Enhanced First Responder Protection and Adapting to New UAV/Missile Ingress Routes, While Assessing and Mitigating AD Losses, and Preparing for Major Retaliatory Strikes (Immediate & Urgent):

   • Action: Immediately re-prioritize and reinforce layered air defense systems (including mobile fire groups with MANPADS for KAB and drone defense) to protect Kharkiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Ternopil, and Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and Northern Donetsk Oblast. Given the Su-35 loss, the HUR cyberattack on Russian railway services, the recent airport restrictions in Moscow, and the successful drone strike on a Russian serviceman in Nikolskoye, Belgorod Oblast (previous reports), the persistent Engels oil depot fire (previous report), the confirmed power outage in Kursk Oblast (TASS), and new KAB warnings for Sumy and Northern Kharkiv Oblasts (AFU), prepare for a high-intensity, multi-wave aerial assault targeting critical infrastructure and population centers across Ukraine. This includes pre-positioning AD assets, readying reserves of interceptors, and activating all early warning systems. The aviation threat in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (previous report) underscores this urgency. Prioritize AD for critical industrial sites. Factor in Russian claims of Ukrainian "terrorism" (Bryansk bridge - previous report) as strong pretexts for severe retaliation. Implement enhanced force protection measures for all emergency services personnel. Expedite diplomatic efforts for the acquisition of additional advanced AD systems and secure urgent resupply of interceptor munitions. Allocate AD assets to counter new UAV threat vectors. Analyze new western/northwestern-bound UAV ingress routes and new missile trajectories to pre-position AD assets and optimize interception tactics. Prioritize defense of Vinnytsia city, Kyiv, and Zhytomyr against the direct UAV threat. Monitor tactical aviation activity in the Eastern and Southeastern directions. Immediately verify the claimed destruction of the P-18 radar in Sumy Oblast (previous report) and rapidly assess any resulting gaps in air situational awareness. Account for new UAV and missile threats in Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts, and develop specific tactics and deploy additional short-range AD systems (e.g., mobile fire groups with MANPADS, anti-drone guns) to counter multiple incoming UAVs. Monitor Russian AD responses to Ukrainian deep strikes into Russia to identify areas of vulnerability and assess the impact of Ukrainian operations on Russian civilian infrastructure and daily life. For Nikopol, Marhanets, and Prymorske, prioritize local, mobile anti-drone systems (e.g., electronic warfare jammers, anti-drone guns, heavy machine guns) and hardened shelters. Respond to the increased kamikaze drone and artillery attacks in the Southern direction with enhanced localized AD and counter-battery fire. Actively counter reconnaissance UAVs in Northern Zaporizhzhia. Ensure AD readiness for Synelnykivskyi Raion and Pavlohrad. Reinforce critical water infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih. Anticipate and defend against FPV drone activity in the Black Sea with "Española" unit. Prepare for the advance of Russian "Center" Group/90th Tank Division into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Account for adverse weather conditions impacting AD operations in Bryansk Oblast. Actively counter Russian precision drone strikes as evidenced by the 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade's successes in Dnipropetrovsk (previous report), and reinforce units with counter-drone equipment and training. Enhance air defense for the Eastern direction, particularly Kharkiv Oblast, given the recent civilian casualties and damage. Verify Russian claims of "Neptune-MD" missile interception to understand the full scope of their AD capabilities and potential new missile variants (previous report). Leverage FPV drone units (e.g., "Posipaky," "Dyki Shershni" as shown by STERNENKO) for offensive anti-drone operations against Russian aerial and ground drone assets.
   • Justification: Russian forces are deliberately escalating attacks on civilian areas and opening new attack vectors to inflict casualties and psychological impact. The persistent KAB strikes, ongoing UAV threats, missile activity, MLRS, and heavy artillery underscore the urgency and breadth of the threat. The Su-35 loss, HUR cyberattack, Moscow airport restrictions, the Belgorod drone strike on military personnel (previous reports), the sustained, confirmed Engels oil depot fire (previous report), the Kursk power outage, and new KAB warnings for Sumy/Northern Kharkiv provide Russia with significant justification and intent for severe retaliation. The injury of SES workers (previous report) and new civilian casualty highlights a direct targeting of first responders and civilians. The Russian claim of destroying a P-18 radar indicates an active Russian effort to suppress Ukrainian AD. New UAV activity and missile launches in Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts demonstrate a further broadening of Russian aerial threats. The warning of aviation munition use in Synelnykivskyi Raion, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (previous report), and the simultaneous multi-UAV threat on Mykolaiv indicate a continued and evolving Russian aerial threat pattern. The persistent Ukrainian UAV attacks on Moscow region and other Russian territories (previous report), leading to repeated airport closures and multiple interceptions, confirm the effectiveness of Ukrainian deep strike operations in disrupting Russian civilian and military operations. This, in turn, may provoke further Russian retaliatory strikes. The confirmed MLRS, heavy artillery, and FPV drone attacks on Nikopol and Marhanets demonstrate a consistent, multi-faceted threat requiring localized, adaptable defenses. The recent deep strikes into Russian territory strongly indicate a major retaliatory strike is imminent, as confirmed by Reuters' reporting. The increased kamikaze drone and artillery attacks in the Southern direction confirm a rising threat there. The recent use of Oniks anti-ship missiles indicates an expanded missile threat. New KAB threats to Sumy, Northern Kharkivshchyna, and Northern Donetsk. Reconnaissance UAVs in Northern Zaporizhzhia. Explosions in Pavlohrad indicate ongoing strikes. Kryvyi Rih's water infrastructure vulnerability was highlighted by a past event. FPV drones in Black Sea present a new maritime threat. New ballistic missile threat alerts highlight the ongoing and varied aerial threat. Civilian casualties from drone strike in Sumy. Russian claims of advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Claimed Russian strike on ammunition production in Dnipropetrop-sk Oblast highlights importance of AD for critical industrial targets. Claimed Russian strike on PVD in Hotiyevka, Chernihiv Oblast. The Belgorod Pyaterochka drone strike with civilian casualties and Nikolskoye drone strike with injured civilian shows Ukraine's attacks into Russia are causing civilian harm and will be used as justification for retaliation. Adverse weather in Bryansk Oblast could impact reconnaissance and strike capabilities. New airport restrictions in Moscow region are a direct consequence of Ukrainian deep strikes, and Russia will use this as justification for further retaliation. Russian claims of bridge sabotage in Bryansk and calls for Nuremberg tribunal will be used to justify escalation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS's previous warning of "massive combined strike" is highly credible and now amplified by the Su-35 loss and cyberattack. Successful Ukrainian FPV strikes by 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade in Dnipropetrovsk confirm precision drone capabilities and the need for similar Russian counter-drone defenses. The recent Kharkiv civilian casualties (previous report, Oleh Syniehubov photos) and Russian MoD claims of intercepting Ukrainian UAVs/missiles (previous report) provide clear new justifications for increased Russian retaliation, requiring heightened Ukrainian AD readiness. STERNENKO's videos confirm Ukrainian FPV units have developed advanced C-UAS capabilities, which are critical for integrated air defense.
   • Intelligence Gap: Real-time air defense munition expenditure rates in affected areas and current inventory levels for key systems for all AD types; full extent of Russian UAV reconnaissance and strike capabilities. Russian intent and capability for deliberate targeting of first responders. Specific objectives of new UAV ingress routes and missile targeting. Full analysis of Russian tactical aviation activity and KAB targeting priorities. Independent BDA on the claimed P-18 radar in Sumy Oblast destruction and its impact. Precise flight paths, launch locations, and targets of new UAVs and missiles in Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts. Precise type of aviation munition in Synelnykivskyi Raion. Precise flight paths and intended targets of the multiple UAVs inbound to Mykolaiv and Konstantinivka. Full analysis of Russian AD response times and effectiveness to UAVs over Moscow region and other Oblasts, and the specific impact on Russian air traffic and civilian life. Specific caliber and type of heavy artillery used in Nikopol/Marhanets; exact impact locations of MLRS; specific types of FPV drones used in these attacks; independent BDA on damage in Prymorske village. Specific intelligence on the timing, scale, and primary targets of the anticipated Russian "revenge strike." Specifics on the increased kamikaze drone types, launch locations, and targets in the Southern direction. Source and launch location of the Oniks missile. Precise flight patterns and objectives of reconnaissance UAVs in Northern Zaporizhzhia and Eastern Dnipropetrovsk. Full BDA of Pavlohrad explosions. Full BDA on the destroyed Buk-M3 SAM system and its impact on Russian AD capabilities. BDA on Oryol Oblast damage. Assessment of specific threats to Kryvyi Rih water infrastructure. Capabilities and targets of FPV drones in Black Sea and "Espanola" unit. Full BDA on the drone strike in Sumy Oblast. Full BDA on the claimed Russian advance into Dnipropetrop-sk Oblast and liberation of Zarya. Full BDA on the claimed Russian strike on the Dnipropetrop-sk ammunition enterprise. Full BDA on claimed strike on PVD in Hotiyevka, Chernihiv Oblast. Full BDA on Belgorod Pyaterochka drone strike. Full BDA on claimed Su-35 destruction. Full BDA on claimed strike on Kherson administration building with Ukrainian officials. Impact of adverse weather on specific Russian operations. Full BDA on the claimed bridge sabotage in Bryansk. Impact of Moscow airport restrictions on Russian military air traffic. Intentions behind Bastrykin's call for a Nuremberg-type tribunal. Full BDA on Nikolskoye drone strike with injured civilian. Full BDA on Su-35 destruction and pilot rescue from Alex Parker Returns. Full BDA on Ternopil explosion. Full BDA on HUR cyberattack on Russian railway services. Full BDA on the drone strike in Nikolskoye, Belgorod Oblast, including confirmation of military casualty and unit affiliation. Full BDA on 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade's FPV strikes (number of casualties, equipment destroyed). Full BDA on Sapsan RUPBAK drone interceptions. Full BDA on Kharkiv civilian casualties and damage. Independent verification of "Neptune-MD" missile variant and its intended target/impact on Russian AD. Full BDA on Kursk Oblast power infrastructure strike. Full technical details of FPV anti-drone tactics used by "Posipaky" and "Dyki Shershni," including drone types, payloads, and success rates. Full BDA on the Ugledar police station incident.
   • Collection Requirement: Automated tracking of AD engagements and munition usage, updated imagery of damaged civilian sites for munition analysis, SIGINT/HUMINT on AD system readiness, drone flight path analysis. HUMINT/OSINT on Russian TTPs regarding first responder targeting. IMINT/SIGINT on UAV launch locations and operational patterns. SIGINT on missile launch locations and targets. SIGINT/IMINT of UAV trajectories to identify likely launch areas and staging points. SIGINT/IMINT on Russian tactical aviation movements and KAB targets. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on the location of the claimed P-18 strike. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on KAB strike locations and damage. SIGINT/IMINT/OSINT on UAV flight paths and missile trajectories. Real-time tracking and SIGINT of UAVs entering Mykolaiv Oblast. Full analysis of Russian AD response times and effectiveness to UAVs over Moscow region and other Oblasts, and the specific impact on Russian air traffic and civilian life. Detailed IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on damage in Nikopol, Marhanets, and Prymorske for BDA and munition analysis. SIGINT/HUMINT on Russian artillery and FPV drone units targeting these areas. Prioritize ISR (SIGINT, IMINT) on Russian strategic bomber bases, missile launch areas, and large-scale UAV staging sites for indicators of imminent mass launch preparations. HUMINT on Russian strategic decision-making regarding retaliation. SIGINT/IMINT on kamikaze drone launch sites and artillery positions in the Southern direction. Wreckage analysis of the Oniks missile to confirm type and origin. IMINT/SIGINT on Russian reconnaissance UAV assets and their operational areas in Northern Zaporizhzhia and Eastern Dnipropetrovsk. IMINT/OSINT on Pavlohrad damage. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on Buk-M3 destruction. IMINT/OSINT on Oryol Oblast damage. Detailed analysis of Kryvyi Rih infrastructure vulnerabilities. IMINT/SIGINT on Black Sea FPV drone operations and "Espanola" unit activities. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on the drone strike in Sumy Oblast. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on the claimed Russian advance into Dnipropetrop-sk Oblast and liberation of Zarya. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on the claimed Russian strike on the Dnipropetrop-sk ammunition enterprise. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on claimed strike on PVD in Hotiyevka, Chernihiv Oblast. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on Belgorod Pyaterochka drone strike. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on claimed Su-35 destruction. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on claimed strike on Kherson administration building with Ukrainian officials. Weather monitoring in Bryansk and its impact on Russian capabilities. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on claimed bridge sabotage in Bryansk. OSINT on Russian official statements regarding airport restrictions. Content analysis of Bastrykin's statements. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on Nikolskoye drone strike. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on Su-35 crash site and pilot rescue. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on Ternopil explosion. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on HUR cyberattack on Russian railway services. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on Nikolskoye, Belgorod Oblast drone strike and casualty for BDA and unit ID. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade's FPV strikes for BDA. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on Sapsan RUPBAK drone interceptions for BDA. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on Kharkiv civilian casualties and damage for BDA. Wreckage analysis of claimed "Neptune-MD" missile for confirmation of type and origin. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on Kursk Oblast power infrastructure strike for BDA. Detailed analysis of STERNENKO's FPV videos to identify drone characteristics and tactics. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on Ugledar police station incident.

2. Sustain and Exploit Deep Strike Successes, Prepare for Retaliation and Enhanced Russian Defenses, Targeting Chemical/Industrial Nodes Critical to Ammunition Production, While Assessing Russian Internal Security Adaptations and Countering Russian UAV C2 (Urgent):

   • Action: Conduct rapid, detailed BDA on the destroyed Iskander launchers (if confirmed), the logistics train, the Tu-22M3 bomber, the "Azot" chemical plant in Novomoskovsk, Tula Oblast, the Buk-M3 SAM system, and the damage in Oryol Oblast (previous reports) to confirm operational impact. Confirm the elimination of high-ranking officers in the Iskander strike. Publicly confirm and publicize the successful targeting of the Russian Su-35 in Kursk Oblast and the HUR cyberattack on Russian railway services (previous reports), highlighting their operational impact and disrupting Russian narratives. Publicly confirm and publicize the drone strike on a Russian serviceman in Nikolskoye, Belgorod Oblast (previous report), emphasizing targeting of military personnel. Publicize these successes widely. Conduct detailed BDA on the claimed Su-35 destruction. Publicly confirm and publicize the Ukrainian strike on power infrastructure in Kursk Oblast (TASS), highlighting its impact on Russian capabilities. Simultaneously, prepare for heightened Russian retaliatory strikes across Ukraine, particularly on strategic infrastructure, as predicted by Reuters. Disperse high-value assets and reinforce their defenses. Continue to assess targets for further deep strikes on Russian logistics and military-industrial complex, prioritizing industrial nodes with confirmed or high-probability links to military production, especially those providing raw materials or components for ammunition. The fire at "Hydromash" factory in Melitopol (previous report) suggests a successful strike; conduct BDA and publicize. Leverage successful POW captures by sappers (previous report) as an IO opportunity against Russian claims. Integrate FPV/overhead drone operations more widely for precision strikes on personnel and high-value equipment. Leverage SOF for continued cross-border raids against high-value Russian personnel and forward operating bases. Develop and deploy countermeasures to Russian new warning systems (e.g., in Sevastopol - previous report) and airfield restrictions (e.g., Kaluga, Vnukovo, Domodedovo, Bryansk, Lipetsk, Zhukovsky - previous reports), assessing their impact on Ukrainian deep strike TTPs. Analyze the TASS report on the "Voskresensky Plant 'Mashinostroitel'" and new FPV drone footage from Colonelcassad and TASS/MoD drone video to identify typical Russian FPV targets and improve Ukrainian countermeasures. Assess the effectiveness of Russian air defense in Kaluga Oblast and other Oblasts against the 61 downed UAVs (previous report) and the 3 new ones today (previous report). Monitor reports on the eliminated fire at the Pushkino fuel/lubricants warehouse (previous report) to determine the effectiveness of the initial Ukrainian strike and the speed of Russian damage control and recovery. Analyze the repeated successful UAV attacks on Moscow region and other Oblasts (previous report), and subsequent airport closures, as a key deep strike impact, and seek opportunities to replicate or escalate this disruption. Monitor the lifting of "yellow level" alerts in Lipetsk and Vnukovo airport restrictions to understand the speed of Russian recovery and their internal threat assessment. Analyze the effectiveness of the recent Ukrainian air strike on a Russian UAV control point in Kherson Oblast (previous report) and seek to replicate such strikes against similar Russian C2 nodes, including communication antennas. Increase efforts to counter Russian cyber-security threats, as implied by TASS's cyberpolice advice. Monitor reports on the "Russian millionaire" fatality from Ukrainian drones (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС - previous report) for BDA and potential propaganda value. Monitor Russian construction of aircraft shelters to adapt deep strike tactics (previous report). Analyze "Project Volley" as a potential UK/NATO drone tactic and develop appropriate countermeasures. Use BDA on claimed destruction of Ukrainian tank/dugout to refine countermeasures. Assess impact of claimed Ukrainian MiG-29 strike on Russian drone operators in Kherson. Publicize successful Ukrainian drone strike on Russian personnel (Николаевский Ванёк). Monitor persistent fire at Engels oil depot and assess its long-term impact on Russian fuel supply, publicizing this disruption (previous report). Closely monitor Russian airbases for the progress of hardened aircraft shelter construction and adapt deep strike targeting to bypass or penetrate these new defenses (previous report). Analyze FPV drone units (STERNENKO) for successful anti-drone tactics to replicate or counter. Publicize Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's support of military intel drone units (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦) as a show of capability.
   • Justification: Ukrainian deep strikes are a significant strategic success but will provoke severe retaliation. The destruction of a logistics train highlights a key vulnerability. Russian attempts to adapt to drone threats and deep strikes (new warning systems, airport restrictions, aircraft shelters) must be actively countered. The persistent strike on a chemical industrial plant is a critical new category of target. The successful extinguishing of the fire in Pushkino and interceptions in Kaluga and other Oblasts indicate Russia's efforts to mitigate deep strike effects. The new FPV/overhead drone video from MoD Russia, Воин DV, and Narodna Militsiya DNR provide insight into Russian tactical operations, including targeting of communication antennas. The repeated successful UAV attacks on Moscow, leading to airport closures, directly impact Russian civilian life and critical infrastructure, demonstrating Ukraine's capability to bring the war to Russian territory. Reuters' prediction highlights the continued threat of significant retaliation. The lifting of alerts/restrictions indicates Russian adaptive defense and damage control. The successful strike on the Russian UAV C2 in Kherson demonstrates a critical capability to degrade Russian drone operations. TASS's mention of cyberpolice suggests a broader Russian concern for information security. The reported "Russian millionaire" fatality suggests a new, high-value targeting capability for Ukrainian deep strikes. New drone attack on Moscow and airport closures reconfirm ongoing disruption. Melitopol Hydromash fire indicates success in hitting targets in occupied territories. Destruction of Buk-M3 is a significant blow to Russian AD. Confirmed damage in Oryol Oblast from Ukrainian attack confirms deep strike reach. Russian construction of aircraft shelters shows direct impact of Ukrainian deep strikes. "Project Volley" indicates new tactical considerations for deep strikes. Successful POW capture counters Russian IO and provides intelligence. Russian drone BDA of Ukrainian vehicles and positions provide insights into Russian capabilities and targets. Claimed HUR cyberattack on Russian railways impacts logistics. Claimed Su-35 destruction degrades Russian air assets. Claimed elimination of specific Iskander officers impacts Russian C2. Claimed MiG-29 strike on drone operators is a high-value targeting success. Claimed drone strike on Russian personnel demonstrates continued tactical precision. Temporary airport restrictions at Domodedovo and Zhukovsky confirm disruption to Russian air traffic. Ukrainian warning of a "massive combined strike" underscores the need for maximizing deep strike impact to divert Russian resources. The Su-35 loss and the HUR cyberattack represent significant, verifiable successes that will provoke retaliation, but also demonstrate Ukraine's capabilities and inflict damage on Russian war machine elements. The sustained fire at Engels oil depot for a third day confirms the strategic impact of previous deep strikes on Russian logistics. The drone strike on a Russian serviceman in Nikolskoye, Belgorod Oblast, adds another direct hit on military personnel in Russian territory, further justifying retaliation and demonstrating Ukrainian reach. The widespread construction of HAS demonstrates Russia's strategic adaptation to Ukrainian deep strikes, emphasizing the need for Ukrainian forces to adapt their deep strike tactics. The confirmed strike on power infrastructure in Kursk Oblast provides additional leverage and justification for further deep strikes against Russian infrastructure targets. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's support for drone units confirms the increasing role of these systems in Ukrainian operations.
   • Intelligence Gap: Full BDA and long-term operational impact on Russian ballistic missile capabilities, Southern logistics, and strategic aviation. Specific details on the GRU personnel targeted in the SOF raid. Effectiveness of Russian counter-drone adaptations. Full impact of Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian air force operations. Full implications of new Sevastopol warning systems on Ukrainian maritime drone operations. Detailed analysis of Russian chemical industrial production facilities. Nature of the dispute with "Mashinostroitel". Full analysis of target in MoD Russia, Воин DV, and Narodna Militsiya DNR drone videos. Specific type and capabilities of UAVs downed over Kaluga and other Oblasts. Detailed BDA of the Pushkino strike. Specific BDA on Moscow region and other Oblasts UAV strikes and the extent of their impact on airports and air traffic; the specific types of UAVs used in these attacks. Detailed analysis of Russian internal security response protocols following UAV incidents (e.g., how quickly are airport restrictions lifted, what criteria are used for "yellow level" alerts). Full BDA on the targeted Russian UAV control point in Kherson and identification of its operational impact on Russian drone activities in the area. Assessment of Russian cyber police effectiveness and the scope of their targets. Verification of the "Russian millionaire" identity and the exact nature of the target hit. Full BDA on the "Hydromash" factory fire in Melitopol. Full BDA on the Buk-M3 SAM system destruction. Full BDA on Oryol Oblast damage. Assessment of Russian capabilities for EW against fiber optic FPV drones (Fighterbomber's statement). Progress and effectiveness of Russian aircraft shelter construction. Full assessment of "Project Volley" capabilities and UK/NATO involvement. Specifics on POW interrogations. BDA on claimed destruction of Ukrainian tank/dugout. Full BDA on claimed HUR cyberattack on Russian railway services. Full BDA on claimed Su-35 destruction. Verification and full BDA on claimed elimination of specific Iskander officers. Full BDA on claimed MiG-29 strike on drone operators. Full BDA on claimed drone strike on Russian personnel. Full BDA on claimed bridge sabotage in Bryansk. Impact of airport restrictions at Domodedovo and Zhukovsky on military logistics. Full BDA on Ternopil explosion. Full BDA on ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 artillery strikes and UAV launch point destruction. Full BDA on the drone strike in Nikolskoye, Belgorod Oblast, including confirmation of military casualty and unit affiliation. Long-term assessment of Engels oil depot fire's impact on Russian fuel supply. Specific details of HAS construction (e.g., thickness of reinforcement, speed of construction across all 14 bases). Full BDA on Kursk Oblast power infrastructure strike. Technical specifications and operational capabilities of the heavy-lift drones and improvised munitions supplied by Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration. Specific details of FPV anti-drone tactics from STERNENKO videos.
   • Collection Requirement: High-resolution satellite imagery of Bryansk/Kursk missile sites, Southern logistics hubs, Russian airfields (especially Engels, Belaya, Dyagilevo, Kaluga, Vnukovo, Domodedovo, Zhukovsky, Bryansk, Lipetsk), and other military-industrial targets, including Novomoskovsk's "Azot" plant. Monitoring Russian strategic aviation movements. HUMINT/SIGINT on Russian GRU force composition. IMINT/OSINT on Russian vehicle adaptations. SIGINT/OSINT on new Russian warning systems. Targeted intelligence on Russian chemical industrial production. OSINT/HUMINT on the "Voskresensky Plant 'Mashinostroitel'" dispute. IMINT/OSINT of the target from MoD Russia, Воин DV, and Narodna Militsiya DNR drone videos. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on UAV characteristics downed in Kaluga and other Oblasts. SIGINT/IMINT of the Pushkino fuel/lubricants warehouse. Real-time IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on Moscow region and other Oblasts airports (Vnukovo, Domodedovo, Zhukovsky) during and after UAV incidents for BDA and operational impact assessment; technical analysis of recovered UAV debris from Moscow attacks. OSINT/HUMINT on Russian public announcements and official statements regarding security alerts and airport operations, especially regarding the timing and content of their lifting. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on the Kherson UAV control point strike location to assess damage, and SIGINT/HUMINT on changes in Russian UAV operations in the Kherson sector. OSINT/HUMINT on Russian cyber threats and counter-measures. OSINT/HUMINT on the individual targeted in the "Russian millionaire" drone strike, cross-referencing with Russian business/political figures. IMINT/OSINT on the "Hydromash" factory fire in Melitopol. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on Buk-M3 destruction. IMINT/OSINT on Oryol Oblast damage. SIGINT/OSINT on Russian EW capabilities and deployment against fiber optic drones. IMINT/OSINT on Russian aircraft shelter construction. IMINT/OSINT on "Project Volley" images/videos for more details on UK/NATO drone tactics. HUMINT/SIGINT from POW interrogations. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on claimed destruction of Ukrainian tank/dugout. SIGINT/OSINT on Russian railway network stability. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on Su-35 crash site for BDA. HUMINT/SIGINT on Russian officer casualties. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on MiG-29 strike on drone operators. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on drone strike on Russian personnel. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on claimed bridge sabotage in Bryansk. OSINT/HUMINT on the impact of airport restrictions on local economies. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on Ternopil explosion BDA. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 artillery strikes. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on Nikolskoye, Belgorod Oblast drone strike and casualty. Updated satellite imagery of Engels oil depot to assess extent of damage and ongoing fire. High-resolution IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on all identified airbases undergoing HAS construction to track progress and identify any new construction patterns or techniques. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on Kursk Oblast power infrastructure strike for BDA. Technical intelligence collection (SIGINT, HUMINT, OSINT) on drones and munitions supplied by Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration. Detailed frame-by-frame analysis of STERNENKO's FPV videos for tactical lessons learned.

3. Intensify Counter-Information Warfare on Humanitarian Issues, Western Divisions, and Russian Fabrications, Addressing Internal Russian Propaganda, and Debunking False Claims of Success, including New "Surrender" Narratives and Strategic Missile Rhetoric (Ongoing & Critical):

   • Action: Proactively and transparently communicate Ukraine's official stance and actions regarding prisoner and body exchanges, consistently refuting Russian disinformation. Immediately and publicly expose Russian fabrications, such as the "future-dated" body lists and the alleged POW video. Immediately and aggressively counter Russian claims of "relatives of Ukrainian military" appealing for surrender, providing context on forced recruitment, psychological pressure, or outright fabrication. Highlight Russian violations of international law to discredit their humanitarian claims. Publicly counter Russian narratives attempting to exploit Western internal politics and international relations. Leverage the capture of 11 Russian POWs by Ukrainian sappers (previous report) as direct evidence countering Russian claims of Ukrainian unwillingness to accept bodies. Publicly confirm and publicize the successful targeting of the Russian Su-35 in Kursk Oblast and the HUR cyberattack on Russian railway services (previous reports), highlighting their operational impact and disrupting Russian narratives. Publicly confirm and publicize the drone strike on a Russian serviceman in Nikolskoye, Belgorod Oblast (previous report), emphasizing targeting of military personnel and cross-border reach. Publicly confirm and publicize the Ukrainian strike on power infrastructure in Kursk Oblast (TASS), emphasizing Ukraine's defensive response to Russian aggression. Formulate a clear and firm public response to Russian diplomatic statements. Leverage the opening of rehabilitation centers to showcase Ukrainian commitment. Monitor and analyze Russian internal propaganda related to veteran support, cultural events, and especially inflammatory narratives concerning migration/ethnic issues and volunteerism. Specifically analyze Russian military propaganda videos to identify key messaging and counter it. Crucially, actively counter the escalating Russian false flag narrative from Kursk Oblast and the Volyn tragedy fake (previous report), and new claims from Oryol Oblast. Immediately and aggressively counter the coordinated "body exchange" information operation by Colonelcassad, Maria Zakharova, Старше Эдды, Alex Parker Returns (previous reports), and Kotsnews, emphasizing Russian dehumanization and disinformation. Immediately refute and expose Kotsnews's publication of alleged lists of fallen Ukrainian soldiers who Kyiv refused to accept as part of this aggressive IO. Immediately refute and expose Russian propaganda about "boys who signed up for endless burgers" and similar dehumanizing rhetoric from Старше Эдды. Immediately refute and expose the new Russian "deception" narrative (УКРОПСКИЙ ФРЕШ). Immediately refute and expose Russian claims of civilian casualties in Belgorod from Ukrainian attacks. Immediately refute and expose Russian claims of "terrorist" bridge sabotage in Bryansk and calls for Nuremberg-type tribunals. Immediately refute and expose new claims of mass desertion in Ukraine. Publicly counter Russian claims of adherence to Istanbul agreements despite Ukrainian attacks. Counter Ryabkov's statement on INF moratorium by highlighting Russia's aggressive posture. Counter the Irish journalist's criticism of Zelensky's decision on body exchanges by providing factual context. Immediately refute and expose false claims of Ukrainian retreat. Monitor and analyze Russian milblogger polls. Immediately and aggressively counter the new Russian narrative regarding civilian casualties at the Azot plant, emphasizing its legitimate military target status, and expose the "Goncharovka" civilian account as part of a broader false flag campaign. Immediately and publicly refute Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian military assets if independent BDA indicates otherwise. Publicly acknowledge successful AD interceptions of UAVs over Russia, framing them as defensive measures and highlighting Russian aggression. Immediately refute TASS claims of significant Russian expansion near Stupochky, Hryhorivka, and Andriivka if found false. Immediately and publicly refute Russian claims of advances towards Konstantinovka if not verifiable by independent sources, or provide context if limited tactical gains are made. Proactively highlight civilian casualties and damage from Russian MLRS, heavy artillery, and FPV drone attacks in Nikopol, Marhanets, and Prymorske, linking them to indiscriminate targeting. Analyze and counter Russian milblogger content that attempts to internalize anxieties or justify aggression through narratives of "endurance" or "sacrifice." Publicly verify or refute Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian UAV control points. Proactively address the implications of the hypothetical General Staff "Map of Combat Operations" dated 07.06.2025 by framing it as a potential long-term scenario for which Ukraine is preparing, or as a tool for strategic planning, rather than a definitive forecast of future defeat. Emphasize Ukrainian resilience and continued resistance despite such hypothetical challenges. Use the civilian casualty figures from Kyiv, Kharkiv, Pavlohrad, and Sumy to highlight Russian brutality. Counter Russian claims of Ukrainian encirclement in Radkovka, Kharkiv. Actively expose and refute dehumanizing language and narratives used by Russian milbloggers against Ukrainian soldiers. Address Russian official statements on "limited operation" and potential escalation. Highlight Russian units' reliance on private donations for equipment as a sign of logistical strain. Frame the Melitopol "Hydromash" fire as a successful strike against Russian military-industrial capability. Actively expose the Kherson wildfire as a potential false flag or environmental cover-up. Internal social issues are being weaponized by Russian propaganda. The Bryansk "body exchange" IO is a significant, coordinated operation targeting Ukrainian morale. The Kozak-2 loss will be exploited by Russian propaganda as a sign of Ukrainian weakness or equipment failure. Russian internal security propaganda shows internal vulnerabilities. Russian claims of Zarya liberation and advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast need to be verified. The "Time of Heroes" program reveals state efforts to control information. The capture of 11 Russian POWs directly counters Russian body exchange IO. The "deception" narrative and claims of civilian casualties in Belgorod from Ukrainian attacks need immediate counter-messaging. The internal EU dispute on sanctions needs to be framed correctly. Claimed strike on PVD in Hotiyevka, Chernihiv Oblast. Adverse weather in Bryansk Oblast could be exploited for IO to justify reduced activity. Russian claims of striking Kherson administration building with Ukrainian officials provide another IO vector. New Russian claims of 90th Tank Division entering Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are a major propaganda opportunity for Russia, requiring a rapid Ukrainian response. Russian claims of bridge sabotage and calls for tribunals are a new legal/IO angle. New claims of mass desertion require counter-narratives. German bunker construction indicates international concern. TASS video of tactical victory will be used for morale boosting. Ryabkov's statement highlights Russia's intent to use INF as leverage. Nikolskoye drone strike with injured civilian is a direct and rapid IO opportunity for Russia. Ukrainian warning of a "massive combined strike" underscores the need for proactive IO. The Su-35 loss and HUR cyberattack are significant successes to publicize. The Ostankino lightning strike and Ternopil explosion provide new IO vectors for Russia, requiring proactive Ukrainian messaging. Immediately and publicly refute Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition's unverified claim of Russian army entry into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, framing it as a propaganda attempt. Address Colonelcassad's unconfirmed claim of targeting senior Ukrainian officials in Kherson administration strike, maintaining a factual stance while emphasizing Russian disregard for civilian infrastructure. Leverage Ukrainian counter-drone successes (Sapsan RUPBAK - previous report, STERNENKO FPV units) and FPV strike successes (31st Separate Mechanized Brigade - previous report) as IO opportunities. Immediately and publicly condemn Russian threats to assassinate senior SBU officers as an act of state terrorism and a violation of international norms. Use Medvedev's statement linking ground realities to negotiations to highlight Russia's aggression and imperialist aims. Expose Russian reliance on fundraisers for military equipment (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 - previous report, Fighterbomber) as a sign of systemic logistical issues, countering narratives of Russian strength. Actively counter Basurin's "re-education" propaganda by highlighting Ukrainian sovereignty and democratic values. Expose Russia's VPN blocking (ASTRA) as an act of censorship.
   • Justification: Russia is leveraging highly sensitive humanitarian issues, internal Western political dynamics, and sensationalist narratives for information warfare, using increasingly blatant fabrications. Russian diplomatic statements are explicitly trying to set conditions for further escalation. The confirmed Azot attack, Moscow drone incident, Buk-M3 destruction, claimed Su-35 destruction, claimed HUR cyberattack on railways, and Oryol Oblast damage (previous reports) will be used by Russia to justify retaliation. The confirmed power outage in Kursk Oblast from a Ukrainian strike (TASS) and new KAB warnings for Sumy/Northern Kharkiv provide additional justification for Russian retaliation. Effective, consistent counter-narratives are critical. The proliferation of internal Russian propaganda, particularly the divisive narratives about "replacement of the Russian people," requires monitoring. The specific focus on medical care and claimed tactical successes/Ukrainian failures in Russian propaganda indicates a recognized vulnerability or area for morale boosting. The subtle use of polls in specific Ukrainian cities indicates an evolving, more nuanced Russian IO tactic. The rapid reporting of Azot casualties and the Goncharovka video clearly demonstrate Russia's intent to exploit any civilian impact for propaganda. Russian claims of destroying high-value Ukrainian military assets are designed to demoralize. Ukrainian deep strikes into Russia, including UAVs over Moscow, provide opportunities to demonstrate capability and shift narratives. The repeated successful interceptions of UAVs over Moscow, publicly reported by Russia, create an opportunity to highlight Ukraine's deep strike capabilities. The TASS report on Trump/Musk conflict and Finland PM's condemnation of Trump are clear attempts to sow discord. The KAB strike on Stepnohirsk and civilian injury in Vasylivskyi Raion offer Russia another opportunity to deflect blame. The new Russian claim of proximity to Konstantinovka and clearing Hryhorivka are direct IO attempts to undermine Ukrainian morale and require immediate, factual counter-messaging. New reports of civilian casualties in Prymorske and sustained shelling in Nikopol/Marhanets underscore the indiscriminate nature of Russian attacks. The introspective milblogger posts indicate an evolving Russian IO approach that needs to be understood and potentially leveraged. Russian claims of destroying UAV C2 points are a direct attempt to disrupt Ukrainian drone operations, necessitating countermeasures. The General Staff's hypothetical map, while not a prediction, provides a worst-case scenario framework that should inform long-term defensive preparations and resource allocation, particularly for key axes like Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, and Orikhiv, where significant Russian pressure is already evident. Civilian casualties in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Pavlohrad, Ternopil, and Sumy provide strong evidence for Russian war crimes. Russian claims of encirclement (Radkovka) and clearing strongholds (Hryhorivka) require rapid, factual response. The dehumanizing rhetoric against Ukrainian soldiers is a severe violation of international norms and must be systematically exposed and condemned. Russian Ambassador's statement is a clear IO vector to control the narrative. Ukrainian Ministry of Culture's warning about the Volyn tragedy fake highlights a current Russian disinformation operation. Russian milblogger appeals for equipment provide an IO opportunity to highlight Russian logistical shortfalls. Melitopol factory fire provides BDA for IO. Oryol Oblast damage gives more justification for Russian retaliation. Kherson wildfire presents a new false flag opportunity. Internal social issues are being weaponized by Russian propaganda. The Bryansk "body exchange" IO is a significant, coordinated operation targeting Ukrainian morale. The Kozak-2 loss will be exploited by Russian propaganda as a sign of Ukrainian weakness or equipment failure. Russian internal security propaganda shows internal vulnerabilities. Russian claims of Zarya liberation and advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast need to be verified. The "Time of Heroes" program reveals state efforts to control information. The capture of 11 Russian POWs directly counters Russian body exchange IO. The "deception" narrative and claims of civilian casualties in Belgorod from Ukrainian attacks need immediate counter-messaging. The internal EU dispute on sanctions needs to be framed correctly. Claimed strike on PVD in Hotiyevka, Chernihiv Oblast. Adverse weather in Bryansk Oblast could be exploited for IO to justify reduced activity. Russian claims of striking Kherson administration building with Ukrainian officials provide another IO vector. New Russian claims of 90th Tank Division entering Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are a major propaganda opportunity for Russia, requiring a rapid Ukrainian response. Russian claims of bridge sabotage and calls for tribunals are a new legal/IO angle. New claims of mass desertion require counter-narratives. German bunker construction indicates international concern. TASS video of tactical victory will be used for morale boosting. Ryabkov's statement highlights Russia's intent to use INF as leverage. Nikolskoye drone strike with injured civilian is a direct and rapid IO opportunity for Russia. Ukrainian warning of a "massive combined strike" underscores the need for proactive IO. The Su-35 loss and HUR cyberattack are significant successes to publicize. The Ostankino lightning strike and Ternopil explosion provide new IO vectors for Russia, requiring proactive Ukrainian messaging. The intensified body exchange narrative by Старше Эдды and Alex Parker Returns (previous reports), and the highly dubious Dnipropetrop-sk claim by Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (previous report), require rapid, fact-based counter-messaging to prevent demoralization and misinformation. Colonelcassad's claim regarding the Kherson administration strike (previous report), whether true or not, provides Russia with a new IO vector. Explicit threats of SBU assassination and Medvedev's statements linking ground gains to negotiation outcomes (previous reports) are new, serious IO vectors requiring immediate and firm counter-messaging to protect Ukrainian leadership and public morale. Exposure of Russian military fundraising efforts highlights their logistical vulnerabilities. The aggressive nature of Basurin's "re-education" rhetoric and Russia's explicit internal information control (VPN blocking, digital archive) represent new facets of the information war that demand direct and persistent counter-narratives.
   • Intelligence Gap: Full scope of Russian information narratives targeting Ukrainian society and Western audiences. Identification of key Russian PSYOP themes. Understanding the intent and impact of highly divisive internal Russian propaganda. Effectiveness of Russian military propaganda. Full details on the alleged "occupation" in Russkoye Porechnoye, Kursk Oblast. Verification of Russian claims near Kamenka/Stroyevka. Detailed analysis of Russian milblogger polling data. Independent verification of Goncharovka incident. Impact and reach of Russian milblogger claims of P-18 radar destruction. Independent BDA on Konstantinovka FPV strike. Full analysis of Russian messaging related to AD interceptions over Moscow and other Oblasts. Verification of TASS reporting on Trump/Musk. Independent BDA on claimed MaxxPro destruction. Independent BDA on Colonelcassad's new FPV video (Leopard 2). Independent BDA on TASS claims of Russian expansion near Stupochky, Hryhorivka, and Andriivka. Full analysis of Russian messaging related to AD interceptions over Mykolaiv. Full BDA on targets in TASS/MoD drone video and Colonelcassad thermal footage. Impact of WSJ/Pentagon UFO story. Specific data supporting Russian claims of 3,500 appeals from Ukrainian military relatives. Impact of Ryabkov's statements on international diplomatic efforts. Independent verification of TASS claim of Russian forces being 6.5 km from Konstantinovka; impact of Colonelcassad's "necrophilia" posts on Ukrainian military recruitment; the specific reach and effectiveness of the "Normandie-Neman" unit narrative. Analysis of the underlying sentiment and potential strategic intent behind introspective Russian milblogger posts. Independent BDA on claimed UAV control point destruction; on claimed destruction of communication antennas. Analysis of the specific messaging intent and potential impact of the General Staff's hypothetical future map. Detailed demographic and psychological impact assessment of civilian casualties in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Pavlohrad, Ternopil, and Sumy. Independent verification of Radkovka encirclement claim and Hryhorivka clearing claim. Full analysis of the dehumanizing language used by Russian milbloggers. Full analysis of the Russian Ambassador's statement and its intended audiences/impact. Content analysis of STERNENKO's podcast. Full analysis of the Volyn tragedy fake origins and aims. Analysis of Russian milblogger appeals for equipment. Full BDA on Buk-M3 destruction and Oryol Oblast damage. Intent and origin of Kherson wildfire. BDA on Kozak-2 loss. Full analysis of the Bryansk "body exchange" IO. Full analysis of "DIVGEN" mapping source and accuracy. Full BDA of civilian casualties in Sumy from drone attack. Verification of Russian claims of Zarya liberation and advance into Dnipropetrop-sk Oblast. Effectiveness and reach of "Time of Heroes" program. Impact of domestic policies on public sentiment and recruitment/mobilization. Independent verification of claimed destruction of Ukrainian tank/dugout. Full details of POW interrogations. Full assessment of internal EU dispute on sanctions. Full analysis of claimed HUR cyberattack on Russian railways. Full BDA on claimed Su-35 destruction and claimed elimination of specific Iskander officers. Impact of adverse weather in Bryansk Oblast on operations and related narratives. Full analysis of Russian IO regarding Hotiyevka PVD strike. Full analysis of Russian claims regarding strike on Kherson administration building. Full analysis of Сливочный каприз offensive tempo data and its internal/external messaging. Full analysis of Russian claims of 90th Tank Division entering Dnipropetrop-sk Oblast. Full analysis of TASS tactical victory video. Full analysis of claimed bridge sabotage in Bryansk and related IO. Full analysis of Bastrykin's Nuremberg tribunal calls. Full analysis of new claims of mass desertion. Full analysis of Alex Parker Returns' domestic crime report. Full analysis of German bunker construction narrative. Full analysis of Ryabkov's statement. Full analysis of Nikolskoye drone strike with injured civilian. Full analysis of ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS's warning of "massive combined strike" and its sources. Full analysis of Irish journalist's criticism. Full analysis of МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники hospital visit video. Full analysis of cat photos/videos as IO. Full analysis of US military equipment showcasing. Full analysis of Ostankino TV Tower lightning strike and related Russian narratives. Full analysis of Ternopil explosion and related Russian narratives. Full analysis of Combat Medic "Yoda" TCC incident. Full analysis of the intensified body exchange narrative (Старше Эдды, Alex Parker Returns, Kotsnews) and its impact. Verification and full BDA of Colonelcassad's claim regarding senior Ukrainian officials in Kherson administration strike. Full analysis of Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition's claim of Russian army entry into Dnipropetrop-sk Oblast and its intended impact. Analysis of Sapsan RUPBAK counter-drone tactics. Analysis of 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade's FPV drone tactics. Full analysis of the explicit threat to liquidate SBU officers. Full analysis of Medvedev's statements and their internal/external impact. Full assessment of the public response to Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's fundraiser and its implications for Russian morale/logistics. Full analysis of Basurin's "re-education" rhetoric and its target audience/impact. Full assessment of the effectiveness and reach of Russia's VPN blocking and digital archive efforts.
   • Collection Requirement: Comprehensive monitoring of Russian state media and milblogger channels. OSINT analysis of specific Russian PSYOP channels. Targeted OSINT/HUMINT on internal Russian social dynamics. Detailed content analysis of Russian military propaganda videos. Immediate OSINT/HUMINT/IMINT of Russkoye Porechnoye. Immediate IMINT/HUMINT of Kamenka/Stroyevka. Systematic collection and analysis of Russian milblogger polls. Immediate OSINT/HUMINT/IMINT of Goncharovka. OSINT monitoring of Russian milblogger channels for further claims of Ukrainian AD system destruction; for destruction of communication antennas. IMINT/SIGINT/HUMINT for BDA on Konstantinovka FPV strike. OSINT monitoring of Russian state and milblogger media for messaging regarding UAV interceptions over Moscow and other Oblasts. OSINT on TASS and Rolling Stone regarding Trump/Musk. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on claimed MaxxPro destruction. IMINT/OSINT of Colonelcassad's FPV video (Leopard 2). IMINT/HUMINT/OSINT on Stupochky, Hryhorivka, and Andriivka areas. OSINT monitoring of local Mykolaiv channels. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT for BDA on TASS/MoD drone video targets and Colonelcassad thermal footage. Content analysis of Russian information channels for mention of the WSJ/Pentagon UFO story. SIGINT/HUMINT on Russian MFA communications. OSINT on Russian state media and milblogger channels for further claims of Ukrainian military appeals for surrender. IMINT/OSINT on the Konstantinovka axis to verify Russian claims of advance; OSINT on Colonelcassad's "necrophilia" posts to gauge their reach and engagement; OSINT on the TASS "Normandie-Neman" report to assess its amplification and target audience reaction. OSINT/HUMINT/IMINT on impact of shelling/FPV drones in Nikopol, Marhanets, and Prymorske. Detailed content analysis of the "НгП раZVедка" message and similar posts. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT to verify claims of UAV control point destruction. OSINT analysis of the General Staff's hypothetical map's reception both domestically and internationally. HUMINT/OSINT on the psychological impact of recent attacks on Kyiv, Kharkiv, Pavlohrad, Ternopil, and Sumy's population. IMINT/HUMINT/OSINT on Radkovka and Hryhorivka to verify Russian claims. Comprehensive OSINT/HUMINT of Russian milblogger channels to track dehumanizing rhetoric and narratives. Full OSINT/HUMINT on Russian Ambassador's statements and their impact on international discourse. Content analysis of STERNENKO's podcast. OSINT/HUMINT on the origins and spread of the Volyn tragedy fake. OSINT/HUMINT on the impact of milblogger appeals for equipment. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on Buk-M3 destruction. IMINT/OSINT on Oryol Oblast damage. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on Kherson wildfire to determine cause and impact. BDA on Kozak-2 loss. Full analysis of the Bryansk "body exchange" IO. Full analysis of "DIVGEN" mapping source and accuracy. Full BDA of civilian casualties in Sumy from drone attack. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT to verify Russian claims of Zarya liberation and advance into Dnipropetrop-sk Oblast. OSINT/HUMINT on the "Time of Heroes" program. OSINT/HUMINT on societal discussions regarding mobilization and international travel. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on claimed destruction of Ukrainian tank/dugout. SIGINT/HUMINT from POW interrogations. OSINT/HUMINT on internal EU discussions regarding sanctions. OSINT/HUMINT on impact of cyberattack on Russian railways. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on Su-35 destruction and Iskander officer elimination. OSINT/HUMINT on Russian IO regarding Hotiyevka PVD. OSINT/HUMINT on Russian claims regarding strike on Kherson administration building. OSINT/HUMINT on Сливочный каприз offensive tempo data. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on claimed 90th Tank Division advance into Dnipropetrop-sk Oblast. IMINT/OSINT of TASS tactical victory video. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on claimed bridge sabotage in Bryansk. Content analysis of Bastrykin's statements. OSINT/HUMINT on claims of mass desertion. OSINT/HUMINT on Germany's bunker construction announcements. OSINT/HUMINT on internal Russian crime reports and their intended domestic audience. OSINT/HUMINT on Ryabkov's statement. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on Nikolskoye drone strike. Content analysis of ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS's warning. OSINT/HUMINT on Irish journalist's criticism. OSINT/HUMINT on МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники hospital visit video. OSINT/HUMINT on cat photos/videos. OSINT/HUMINT on US military equipment showcasing for IO. OSINT/HUMINT on Ostankino TV Tower lightning strike; OSINT/HUMINT on Ternopil explosion; OSINT/HUMINT on TCC detention of combat medic and broader public reaction. OSINT/HUMINT on Russian "body exchange" messaging from all sources (Старше Эдды, Alex Parker Returns, Kotsnews), including specific imagery and its dissemination. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT for BDA on Colonelcassad's claim regarding Kherson administration strike. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT to verify/refute Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition's Dnipropetrop-sk claim and assess its reach. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on Sapsan RUPBAK counter-drone operations and 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade FPV strikes to gather tactical details for IO. Full OSINT/HUMINT on the explicit SBU assassination threats and their dissemination. Content analysis of Medvedev's statements. OSINT/HUMINT on the reach and public reaction to Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's fundraiser and Fighterbomber's calls for donations. Content analysis of Basurin's video. Technical analysis of VPN blocking methods and counter-measures. OSINT/HUMINT on the "digital archive of the SMO" project and its initial impact.

4. Reinforce and Monitor Sumy and Donetsk Axes Defenses, Verify Russian Claims, and Account for Potential AD Degradation, while Adapting to New Precision Drone Threats and Countering Russian Ground Offensives (Urgent):

   • Action: Immediately reinforce personnel, fortifications, and anti-tank capabilities on the Sumy axis. Intensify ISR collection on Russian force composition, strength, and objectives. Advise civilian authorities on potential evacuation routes. Conduct aggressive counter-battery fire. Given the confirmed occupation of Loknya and advances towards Sumy city (ISW map - previous report), new KAB threats to Sumy (AFU warning), and new aviation airstrikes on Sumy region, and the documented operations of "Anvar" special detachment (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition - previous report), assess the next likely Russian objectives and prepare layered defenses. New drone footage of operations on Sumy direction (Два майора - previous report) confirms active Russian presence. The presence of M-113 APC in Kharkiv direction (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 - previous report) highlights ongoing combat. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 video showing border guard artillery destroying a UAV launch position and infantry/dugouts in Kharkiv direction (previous report) underscores the need for robust defense in Kharkiv Oblast. Prioritize anti-drone measures, electronic warfare, and replacement armor for forces on this axis, given confirmed Russian FPV/overhead drone effectiveness against manpower, vehicles, and communication antennas. Counter Russian attempts to claim entry into Dnipropetrop-sk Oblast by actively defending the line and providing verifiable evidence of Russian positions. Account for the Russian control of Kindrashivka on the Kupyansk axis and reinforce adjacent defensive lines. Similarly, reinforce defenses and conduct ISR on the Konstantinovka, Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, Orikhiv, Novopavlivka, Hryhorivka, Andriivka, Huliaipole, Lyman, Siversk, Kupyansk, Kherson, and Kharkiv (Vovchansk) axes. Prepare for potential increased KAB/UAV/missile strikes on Sumy Oblast. Immediately verify the Russian claim of a Krab SPG destruction and the FPV strike on a UAV C2/dugout in Konstantinovka. Analyze the "ZONA SVO" video claiming Ukrainian assault deaths. Allocate additional AD/EW assets to these fronts where feasible. If the P-18 radar destruction in Sumy Oblast is confirmed, adjust ground force defensive planning. Immediately verify TASS claims of Ukrainian retreat. Improve force protection measures for drone crews. Immediately verify the Russian MoD claim of a MaxxPro loss. Immediately verify TASS claims of significant Russian expansion near Stupochky, Hryhorivka, and Andriivka. Implement enhanced camouflage, dispersal, and active/passive counter-drone measures for all personnel and vehicles operating in frontline areas. Update training protocols for personnel on drone threat identification and countermeasures. Monitor for any shifts in Russian ground force deployments or tactics in Zaporizhzhia Oblast following the KAB strike on Stepnohirsk and the attack on Vasylivskyi Raion. Immediately verify TASS claims of Russian forces being 6.5 km from Konstantinovka via IMINT/HUMINT/OSINT and adjust defensive planning accordingly. Prioritize the development and deployment of countermeasures against Russian capabilities to target Ukrainian UAV control points and operators, based on the "Voin DV" claim and the targeting of communication antennas. Analyze the General Staff's hypothetical future map, particularly the depictions of significant Russian territorial gains and advances towards key Ukrainian cities (Kramatorsk, Orikhiv, Kupiansk), to identify potential future Russian strategic objectives and prepare layered defenses accordingly. Immediately verify Russian claims of encirclement in Radkovka, Kharkiv, and provide emergency support or planning if confirmed. Urgently implement lessons learned from FPV/overhead drone losses of Krab SPG, BMP, and Leopard 2 tank, focusing on enhanced armor protection (e.g., anti-drone nets), rapid dismount, and target signature reduction. Monitor mortar activity in Dnipropetrop-sk direction, and counter reconnaissance UAVs in Northern Zaporizhzhia. Analyze and respond to Russian FPV drone operations on logistics routes and night attacks on manpower, particularly on the Krasnoarmeysk direction. Disseminate Ukrainian FPV drone success stories (Buk-M3 destruction, "greed" video, "Spartan" unit successes) to friendly forces. Investigate the loss of the Kozak-2 armored vehicle and implement lessons learned to prevent future vehicle losses from terrain or targeted strikes. Immediately verify Russian claims of Zarya liberation and advance into Dnipropetrop-sk Oblast. Adapt tactics for sapper units following successful POW capture. Integrate 46th Brigade's resource requests into immediate and medium-term logistical planning. Account for adverse weather in Bryansk Oblast affecting border operations. Assess the impact of Russian offensive tempo data (Сливочный каприз) on current and future ground operations. Immediately verify the claimed strategic breakthrough into Dnipropetrop-sk Oblast by the 90th Tank Division and adapt defensive and counter-offensive plans. Actively defend against claimed Russian liberation of unnamed settlement in the South. Immediately verify claimed destruction of "Baba Yaga" multicopter and adapt counter-drone TTPs. Prioritize defending Dnipropetrop-sk Oblast against Russian ground forces, as confirmed by 31st Separate Brigade. Assess threat from Russian helicopter aviation. Immediately verify capture of Zarya (Donetsk) and its strategic implications for the Konstantinovka axis, adapting defensive plans accordingly. Reinforce and protect military personnel from internal mobilization detentions, ensuring adherence to deferment rules and maintaining trust. Leverage the success of 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade's FPV strikes and Sapsan RUPBAK's counter-drone operations to refine tactics and procure additional equipment. Immediately reinforce positions in Komar (Southern Donetsk) due to confirmed 336th Naval Infantry Brigade artillery strikes on Ukrainian PVD (previous report). Prioritize funding and procurement for EW equipment for units like the 205th Separate Battalion (previous report), addressing the identified need for counter-drone capabilities. Address the Ugledar police station incident (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС), determining if it represents a threat to internal security and law enforcement in frontline areas.
   • Justification: Russian claims of an "expanding buffer zone" and confirmed advances (Loknya, towards Sumy city - previous report) indicate a serious intent to press the Sumy axis. The continued focus on the Novopavlivka, Pokrovsk, Hryhorivka, Andriivka, and Konstantinovka directions also indicate sustained pressure on ground forces. The SOF raid highlights active Russian presence. Russian claims of KAB strikes (including new warnings for Sumy, Northern Kharkivshchyna, Northern Donetsk) and new UAV activity further indicate their focus. The claimed Krab SPG, BMP, and Leopard 2 tank destruction and FPV strike on a UAV C2 node highlight Russian tactical adaptation and effectiveness. The claimed FPV strike on "Baba-Yaga" and drone crews demonstrates a serious threat to Ukrainian drone assets and personnel. Russian propaganda videos purporting to show Ukrainian casualties are designed to demoralize. The continuing KAB launches underscore the aerial component of Russian ground pressure. The claimed P-18 radar destruction, if confirmed, represents a direct attempt to degrade Ukrainian defenses. TASS claims of Ukrainian retreat require immediate military response. The claimed MaxxPro loss, if verified, represents a tangible loss. TASS claims of expanding control near Stupochky, Hryhorivka, and Andriivka represent a potential tactical setback. New Russian drone videos confirm a highly effective threat from precision tactical drones, including against communication antennas. The KAB strike on Stepnohirsk and the attack on Vasylivskyi Raion, while aerial, could be a precursor to increased ground activity in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The specific claim of proximity to Konstantinovka indicates a renewed or intensified focus on this axis. The Russian claim of destroying a UAV control point indicates their active efforts to disrupt Ukrainian drone operations, necessitating countermeasures. The General Staff's hypothetical map, while not a prediction, provides a worst-case scenario framework that should inform long-term defensive preparations and resource allocation, particularly for key axes like Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, and Orikhiv, where significant Russian pressure is already evident. Russian claims of encirclement (Radkovka) and clearing strongholds (Hryhorivka) require rapid, factual response. The confirmed FPV/overhead drone destruction of multiple armored vehicles highlights a critical vulnerability that demands immediate tactical adaptation. New KAB threats to eastern Kharkiv and northern Donetsk, reconnaissance UAVs in Northern Zaporizhzhia, and mortar operations in Dnipropetrop-sk direction confirm a multi-faceted threat on these axes. Russian FPV drone operations on logistics and night attacks on manpower indicate highly effective and pervasive threat, particularly on the Krasnoarmeysk direction. Ukrainian FPV drone successes should be leveraged for morale and tactical adaptation. The loss of the Kozak-2 armored vehicle, whether by enemy strike or terrain, highlights vulnerabilities that Russian propaganda will exploit. New aviation airstrikes on multiple axes and claimed liberation of Zarya and advance into Dnipropetrop-sk Oblast confirm intense ground pressure. Successful capture of 11 Russian POWs by sappers indicates a capability for offensive tactical action on the ground. Claimed Russian strike on PVD in Hotiyevka, Chernihiv Oblast. Adverse weather in Bryansk Oblast could impact ground operations in border areas. Russian offensive tempo data from Сливочный каприз provides a quantitative basis for assessing increased threat. The claimed entry of the 90th Tank Division into Dnipropetrop-sk Oblast represents a significant new threat that requires immediate, decisive action. Russian claims of tactical victories in settlements (TASS video) reinforce their ground capabilities. Claimed destruction of "Baba Yaga" multicopter indicates a persistent threat to Ukrainian high-value drones. 31st Separate Brigade confirms significant ground pressure on Dnipropetrop-sk Oblast. Fighterbomber's video shows Russian helicopter aviation is active in ground support. Night operations (Воин DV) demonstrate continuous pressure. Confirmed capture of Zarya by combined arms (MoD Russia, Операция Z) is a significant tactical victory for Russia and impacts the overall Donetsk front. The TCC detention of the combat medic highlights internal issues that can impact combat effectiveness and morale. Podduvny |Z|O|V| edition's video confirms active Russian buffer zone creation operations in Sumy/Chernihiv border, using combined arms. The confirmed control of Kindrashivka by DeepState further indicates Russian ground gains. The successful FPV strikes by 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade demonstrate effective Ukrainian defensive tactics against Russian ground assaults. Sapsan RUPBAK's success in downing drones is a testament to effective counter-drone operations, which are vital for ground force protection. The confirmed 336th Naval Infantry Brigade strikes on Ukrainian PVD in Komar show continued, effective Russian tactical engagement. The explicit request for EW equipment by a TD Brigade highlights a critical and immediate need to sustain defensive operations against the pervasive drone threat. The Ugledar police station incident, if linked to criminal or subversive elements, points to the need for robust internal security measures in frontline areas.
   • Intelligence Gap: Precise composition and strength of Russian forces on Sumy, Konstantinovka/Southern Donetsk/Pokrovsk/Orikhiv, Hryhorivka, Andriivka, Kharkiv (Radkovka), Lyman, Siversk, Kupyansk, Kherson, and Huliaipole axes. Independent BDA on Russian claim of Krab SPG, BMP, and Leopard 2 tank destruction and FPV strike on UAV C2; on claimed destruction of communication antennas. Full details on the incident depicted in the "ZONA SVO" video. Detailed assessment of Russian KAB targeting accuracy. Operational impact of potential P-18 radar loss. Independent verification of TASS claim of Ukrainian retreat. Full BDA on Konstantinovka FPV strike. Independent BDA on claimed MaxxPro destruction. Independent BDA on TASS claims of Russian expansion near Stupochky, Hryhorivka, and Andriivka. Full BDA on targets in MoD Russia, Воин DV, and Narodna Militsiya DNR drone videos. Assessment of Russian drone capabilities for night operations. Any changes in Russian ground force massing or movement in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Independent verification of TASS claim regarding proximity to Konstantinovka; specific Russian units and their strength operating on the Konstantinovka axis. Independent BDA on the claimed UAV control point destruction; identification of Russian TTPs for targeting UAV ground infrastructure. Detailed analysis of Russian strategic objectives and unit composition on all axes depicted in the hypothetical General Staff map, particularly for areas indicating major Russian advances (e.g., Kramatorsk, Orikhiv, Kupiansk). Independent verification of Radkovka encirclement and Hryhorivka clearing and specific unit identification. Detailed post-BDA analysis of the Krab SPG, BMP, and Leopard 2 tank to understand impact points and anti-drone measures effectiveness. Specifics on mortar units operating in Dnipropetrop-sk direction. Exact targets and flight paths of reconnaissance UAVs in Northern Zaporizhzhia and Eastern Dnipropetrop-sk. Full analysis of Russian FPV drone operational patterns, particularly night operations and logistics interdiction in Krasnoarmeysk direction. BDA of Buk-M3 SAM system destruction. BDA on Kozak-2 loss (cause and impact). Full analysis of Russian "DIVGEN" mapping claims. Full BDA on claimed liberation of Zarya and advance into Dnipropetrop-sk Oblast. Information on "Espanola" unit's ground capabilities. Full details on POW interrogations from sapper unit. Full BDA on claimed strike on PVD in Hotiyevka, Chernihiv Oblast. Weather monitoring for Bryansk Oblast. Full analysis of the specific units and intentions behind the quantitative offensive tempo data from Сливочный каприз. Independent verification of claimed 90th Tank Division advance into Dnipropetrop-sk Oblast. Identity of the unnamed settlement in the South claimed liberated. Full BDA on "Baba Yaga" multicopter destruction. Full BDA on the destroyed building in TASS video and the nature of the tactical victory. Full assessment of Russian helicopter aviation capabilities for ground support. Full details on Russian night operations. Full BDA on the capture of Zarya and specific unit deployment for the 10th Guards Tank Regiment. Full analysis of "Iskander" commander's statements for actionable intelligence. Full details on the TCC detention incident. Independent verification of Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition's claim of Russian army entry into Dnipropetrop-sk Oblast, including specific locations and unit identification. Full analysis of Russian force strength and objectives in Sumy/Chernihiv border areas ("Anvar" detachment). Full analysis of Russian forces in Kindrashivka and their immediate objectives. Full BDA on 336th Naval Infantry Brigade strikes on Komar (number of casualties, equipment destroyed). Specific inventory levels for EW equipment for TD units and their overall effectiveness against current Russian drone threats. Full BDA on the Ugledar police station incident, including identification of perpetrators and their motivations.
   • Collection Requirement: HUMINT from local sources, SIGINT on Russian communications, IMINT for troop movements and fortifications, cross-referencing Russian map claims with ground truth. Immediate IMINT of Vasyutinskoye area for BDA, SIGINT on Russian drone activity. Detailed frame-by-frame analysis of "ZONA SVO" video. IMINT/SIGINT of Konstantinovka to verify the FPV strike and BDA. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on KAB strike locations. IMINT/SIGINT on Russian reconnaissance and strike activity in Sumy Oblast. IMINT/HUMINT of Kamenka/Stroyevka area. IMINT/SIGINT of Konstantinovka to verify the FPV strike. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on claimed MaxxPro destruction. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on Stupochky, Hryhorivka, and Andriivka areas. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT for BDA on MoD Russia, Воин DV, and Narodna Militsiya DNR drone videos. IMINT/SIGINT on Konstantinovka axis for Russian force disposition, movements, and claimed advances. HUMINT from local sources near Konstantinovka. IMINT/SIGINT on Russian counter-drone operations and targeting of Ukrainian UAV ground assets, including analysis of the "Voin DV" video and the targeting of communication antennas. Aggressive ISR (IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT) on all axes, especially Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, Orikhiv, Sumy, Kharkiv (Radkovka, Vovchansk), Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, Huliaipole, and Kherson to monitor Russian force buildup, logistics, and any signs of preparatory movements for large-scale offensives. Cross-reference actual Russian activities with the hypothetical scenarios presented in the General Staff map to refine intelligence assessments. IMINT/OSINT of Krab SPG, BMP, and Leopard 2 tank wreckage for BDA and analysis of anti-drone net effectiveness. SIGINT/HUMINT on mortar unit locations and operational patterns in Dnipropetrop-sk direction. IMINT/SIGINT on reconnaissance UAV flight paths and ground control stations in Northern Zaporizhzhia and Eastern Dnipropetrop-sk. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on Russian FPV/overhead drone launch locations, C2, and targets for night operations and logistics interdiction in Krasnoarmeysk direction. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on Buk-M3 destruction. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on Kozak-2 loss location and circumstances. IMINT/OSINT on "DIVGEN" maps. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT to verify Russian claims of Zarya liberation and advance into Dnipropetrop-sk Oblast. HUMINT from POW interrogations. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on claimed strike on PVD in Hotiyevka, Chernihiv Oblast. Weather monitoring for Bryansk Oblast. IMINT/SIGINT/HUMINT to verify and analyze offensive tempo data from Сливочный каприз. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT to verify claimed 90th Tank Division advance into Dnipropetrop-sk Oblast. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT to identify the unnamed liberated settlement. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on "Baba Yaga" multicopter destruction. IMINT/OSINT of TASS tactical victory video. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on Russian helicopter aviation activity. IMINT/SIGINT on Russian night operations. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT for Zarya capture BDA and further assessment of the 10th Guards Tank Regiment. SIGINT/HUMINT on "Iskander" commander and his unit. HUMINT/OSINT on TCC detention incidents and broader mobilization issues. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT to verify Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition's claim of Russian army entry into Dnipropetrop-sk Oblast. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on "Anvar" special detachment activities and their impact on buffer zone creation. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on Kindrashivka's status and Russian forces there. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade's AOR for signs of renewed Russian assaults. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on Komar to confirm 336th Naval Infantry Brigade strikes and BDA. SIGINT/HUMINT on 205th Separate Battalion's EW requirements and any other units expressing similar needs. HUMINT/OSINT on the Ugledar police station incident to identify perpetrators and motivations.

5. Enhance Maritime Security in the Black Sea and Crimea, and Bolster Air Defense in Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kherson, while maintaining vigilance on Russian naval operations (New & Critical):

   • Action: Increase Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) in areas with critical maritime infrastructure (ports, offshore platforms, key shipping lanes) in the Black Sea, particularly off Odesa, Mykolaiv, and the Ukrainian coast, and intensify ISR on Sevastopol and other Crimean naval bases. Develop and deploy enhanced physical and electronic security measures for offshore platforms, subsea cables, and pipelines. Share intelligence on Russian maritime special operations (e.g., "Espanola" unit's TTPs, "Два майора" claims, new АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА videos - previous reports) with relevant maritime security agencies and allied nations. Prioritize monitoring of specific offshore platforms and naval assets for signs of Russian activity. Analyze the new Sevastopol warning signals to understand their operational triggers. Increase AD readiness in Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kherson for incoming missile and UAV threats, and integrate maritime and air defense efforts to counter coordinated attacks. Specifically, prepare AD systems for Oniks anti-ship missiles, given their recent use (previous report), and account for the large-scale UAV attacks into Crimea (61 reportedly intercepted - previous report), and new FPV drone activity in the Black Sea (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА - previous report). Maintain continuous monitoring of Russian naval vessels, including missile carriers, in both the Black and Azov Seas, despite their current reported absence. Analyze the Ukrainian Navy's situation report to identify any emerging threats or shifts in Russian naval posture. Monitor Kryvyi Rih and other central Ukrainian urban centers for shifts in Russian targeting, given the current "controlled situation" reported by local authorities. Review the "Prydniprovskyi Direction" on the General Staff's hypothetical map, which depicts Russian control of the eastern bank of the Dnipro River and ongoing shelling of the right bank, to understand potential long-term Russian objectives and prepare defenses along the riverine frontier. Implement specific countermeasures against increased kamikaze drone attacks in the Southern direction. Monitor the aftermath of the Mariupol high-rise fire and Melitopol "Hydromash" factory fire for any signs of Russian military use or industrial impact. Investigate the Kherson wildfire (Два майора - previous report) for any military implications or false flag potential. Account for Russian "Center" Group's claimed advance into Dnipropetrop-sk Oblast as potentially affecting maritime approaches. Full BDA on the claimed Russian strike on the Dnipropetrop-sk ammunition enterprise. Account for claimed strike on Kherson administration building with Ukrainian officials. Immediately verify the Russian MoD claim of intercepting a "Neptune-MD" missile over the Black Sea (previous report), and if confirmed, assess its intended target and the implications of this missile variant. Account for Russian intentions to enter Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (РБК-Україна) as potentially impacting broader maritime access and control of riverine areas.
   • Justification: The "Espanola" unit's video and "Два майора" claims demonstrate a sophisticated Russian capability for maritime sabotage. The introduction of new, specific warning signals in Sevastopol indicates heightened Russian concern. The confirmed missile threat towards Odesa, and new UAV and missile activity (including Oniks) in Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts, highlight the continued aerial threat to these vital port cities and regions. The continued multi-UAV threat on Mykolaiv underscores the need for robust and adaptable local air defense. The Ukrainian Navy's report provides valuable real-time insight into the maritime domain. The calm situation reported in Kryvyi Rih, while positive, means Russian forces may shift their focus there if other areas become too heavily defended. The hypothetical map's depiction of a stable Russian presence on the eastern Dnipro bank and continued fire on the western bank suggests a persistent riverine threat that needs to be factored into long-term defensive planning. The reported increase in kamikaze drones in the Southern direction indicates a heightened and specific threat vector. The recent use of the Oniks anti-ship missile underscores the diverse range of threats. The Mariupol fire indicates ongoing Russian efforts to "normalize" occupied territories, which includes rebuilding that may have dual-use military implications. The 61 UAVs intercepted over Crimea highlight ongoing Ukrainian efforts to target the peninsula, which implies a sustained Russian AD response. The Melitopol factory fire indicates a potential target for Ukrainian action in occupied territories. New FPV drone activity in the Black Sea confirms a direct maritime threat. The Kherson wildfire could be used as a false flag or environmental cover-up. Russian claimed advance into Dnipropetrop-sk Oblast indicates heightened ground threat affecting Black Sea access. Claimed strike on Dnipropetrop-sk ammunition enterprise highlights importance of protecting inland industrial targets. Russian claims of striking Kherson administration building with Ukrainian officials could be a pretext for further maritime aggression. Russian claims of 90th Tank Division entering Dnipropetrop-sk Oblast could impact maritime approaches. The claimed MiG-29 strike on drone operators in Kherson region indicates continued Ukrainian aerial activity near the coast, requiring coordinated maritime AD. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА video of "Española" unit near offshore platforms confirms active and visible operations, increasing the threat from maritime sabotage. Colonelcassad's unconfirmed claim of senior Ukrainian officials being targeted in the Kherson administration strike, if true, would increase the significance of maritime and deep strike threats in this region. Russian MoD claim of "Neptune-MD" interception is a significant new development regarding Ukrainian maritime strike capabilities and requires immediate assessment. The confirmed Russian intent to enter Dnipropetrovsk Oblast implies an ambition to gain control of strategic riverine and coastal approaches that must be countered.
   • Intelligence Gap: Full understanding of "Espanola" unit's capabilities. Precise location and function of the "infrastructure" claimed destroyed by "Два майора." Full details on the triggers and operational procedures for the new Sevastopol warning signals. Precise launch location and intended target of missile towards Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Voznesensk, and UAV activity in Mykolaiv and Kherson. Precise flight paths and intended targets of the multiple UAVs inbound to Mykolaiv and Konstantinivka. Reason for current absence of Russian missile carriers. Any specific intelligence from the Ukrainian Navy's report indicating new Russian naval movements or capabilities. Any intelligence indicating changes in Russian targeting priorities for central Ukrainian cities like Kryvyi Rih. Specific Russian units deployed along the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast, and their capabilities for offensive river crossing operations or sustained indirect fire. Specific types, launch methods, and targeting patterns of the increased kamikaze drone attacks in the Southern direction. Origin and flight path details of the recently used Oniks missile. Post-fire assessment of the Mariupol high-rise and Melitopol "Hydromash" factory and their potential for military repurposing. Full assessment of Ukrainian UAV targets and operational impact in Crimea. Specifics of FPV drone activity in the Black Sea (launch platforms, targets, effectiveness). Cause and impact of the Kherson wildfire. Full implications of Russian "Center" Group's claimed advance into Dnipropetrop-sk Oblast on maritime security. Full BDA on the claimed Russian strike on the Dnipropetrop-sk ammunition enterprise. Full BDA on claimed strike on Kherson administration building with Ukrainian officials. Full implications of claimed 90th Tank Division advance into Dnipropetrop-sk Oblast on maritime security. Full BDA on claimed MiG-29 strike on drone operators in Kherson. Verification of Colonelcassad's claim of senior Ukrainian officials being targeted in the Kherson administration strike. Full BDA on Russian MoD claim of "Neptune-MD" missile interception, including corroboration of missile type and intended target. Precise unit identification and objectives of Russian forces attempting to enter Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to assess their potential impact on riverine/coastal control.
   • Collection Requirement: IMINT/OSINT on Russian naval special forces units, SIGINT on their communications, HUMINT from Black Sea region. Commercial satellite imagery of offshore infrastructure. SIGINT/OSINT on Sevastopol air defense and naval activities. SIGINT on missile launch origin and trajectory analysis. SIGINT/IMINT on UAV launch locations and flight paths. Real-time tracking and SIGINT of UAVs entering Mykolaiv Oblast. Continuous IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on Russian naval movements. Detailed analysis of the Ukrainian Navy's situation report for any anomalies or new data points. OSINT/HUMINT on local sentiment and potential Russian reconnaissance/targeting activities in Kryvyi Rih and surrounding areas. IMINT/SIGINT/HUMINT on Russian forces, fortifications, and equipment deployed along the eastern bank of the Dnipro in Kherson, particularly for signs of bridging equipment or preparations for amphibious operations. SIGINT/IMINT/OSINT on kamikaze drone operational patterns, wreckage analysis, and ground team detection/neutralization efforts in the Southern direction. Wreckage analysis of the Oniks missile and SIGINT for its launch signature. IMINT/OSINT of the Mariupol high-rise building post-fire to assess damage, reconstruction, and any signs of military presence or use. IMINT/OSINT of the Melitopol "Hydromash" factory to assess damage and potential military significance. Full IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on Ukrainian UAV operations into Crimea and Russian AD response. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on Black Sea FPV drone operations. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on Kherson wildfire to determine cause and impact. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on Russian "Center" Group's claimed advance into Dnipropetrop-sk Oblast. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on claimed Russian strike on Dnipropetrop-sk ammunition enterprise. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on claimed strike on Kherson administration building with Ukrainian officials. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on claimed 90th Tank Division advance into Dnipropetrop-sk Oblast. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on claimed MiG-29 strike on drone operators in Kherson. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА "Española" unit operations, including specific targets if possible. HUMINT/OSINT/IMINT on the Kherson administration strike to confirm casualties and any senior official presence. Wreckage analysis of claimed "Neptune-MD" missile to confirm type and origin. SIGINT/IMINT on any new Ukrainian maritime missile launches. IMINT/SIGINT/HUMINT on Russian forces attempting to enter Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, focusing on units, equipment, and objectives relevant to riverine or coastal control.

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END REPORT