Archived operational intelligence briefing
OPSEC CLASSIFICATION: NATO SECRET // RELEASABLE TO UKR FORCES
INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) TIME OF REPORT: 08 JUN 25 / 08:45 ZULU REPORTING PERIOD: 08 JUN 25 / 08:12 ZULU - 08 JUN 25 / 08:45 ZULU PREPARED BY: Senior Military Intelligence Analyst, Eastern European Warfare Desk
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:
AOR Update: Kharkiv Oblast (including Kharkiv city, Northern Kharkivshchyna, Vovchansk, Vovchanski Khutory, Zapadne), Volyn Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (including Synelnykivskyi Raion, Mezheva community, Nikopol, Marhanets community, Pavlohrad, Kryvyi Rih, Eastern Dnipropetrovsk, Maliyivka), Zaporizhzhia Oblast (including Stepnohirsk community, Vasylivskyi Raion, Prymorske village, Northern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Melitopol, Olhivske, Zaliznychne, Novoandriyivka, Orikhiv, Malynivka, Huliaipole), Black Sea, Azov Sea, Sumy Oblast (including Loknya, Sumy city, Osoyivka, Myropilske, Nedryhailivska community, Esman community), Russian Federation (Kursk - including Kursk region, Bryansk - including Bryansk Oblast, Moscow Oblast - including Dubna, Kstovo - Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, Belgorod Oblast, Kaluga - including Sukhinichi and Borovsk districts, Smolensk Oblasts, Moscow Region including Dubna, Podmoskovye, Moscow city, Pushkino, Vnukovo Airport, Domodedovo Airport; Irkutsk region - Belaya airfield; Tambov Oblast - Michurinsk; Ryazan Oblast - Dyagilevo; Belgorod Oblast - Prokhorovka-Belenikhino, Zhuravlevka, Pushkarozhadinsky, Azov - Rostov Oblast, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast - Kstovo, Sevastopol, Lipetsk Oblast, Orel Oblast, Tula Oblast - Novomoskovsk, Azot chemical plant; Mariupol, Kazan), Southern Donetsk Direction (including Stupochky, Bahatyr, Vesele, Burlatske, Vilne Pole), Konstantinovka direction, Siversk direction (Verkhnokamyanske), Odesa Oblast, Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo - Alekseevka, Chasov Yar, Kramatorsk axis - including Chasiv Yar, Markove, Bila Hora, Predtechyne; Toretsk axis - including Toretsk, Dyliyivka, Yablunivka; Novopavlivka axis - including Bahatyr, Vesele, Burlatske, Vilne Pole; Krasnoarmeysk-Novosergeevka, Maryinka, Dalnee, Sokol, Lipovoe, Bakhmut, Progress, Kleshcheevka, Vasyutinskoye, south Donetsk region, Hryhorivka, Andriivka, Zarya, Poltavka, Myrolubivka, Myrne, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Lysivka, Novoserhiyivka, Udachne, Kotlyne, Novomykolayivka, Horikhove, Kotlyarivka, Bohdanivka, Novoukrayinka, Andriyivka), Kupyansk axis (Kupyansk-Vuzlovyy, Stepova Novoselivka), Kherson axis (Lvove), Ternopil Oblast, Kyiv, Krasnoarmeysk direction, Lviv Oblast, Mykolaiv Oblast (including Varvarivka, Matviivka, Voskresenske, Konstantinivka), Poltava Oblast, Kirovohrad Oblast, Vinnytsia Oblast, Cherkasy Oblast, Zhytomyr Oblast, Kyiv Oblast, Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), Vremivka Direction. Lyman Direction (Hrekivka, Novyy Myr, Ridkodub, Zelena Dolyna, Torske, Bilohorivka). Colombia (Bogota). Belgium.
New Developments (UKR):
New Developments (RU):
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations:
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:
COA 1 (MLCOA - Sustained and Escalated Retaliatory Saturation Attacks on Urban Centers and Critical Infrastructure, Coupled with Amplified Disinformation on Humanitarian Issues and Western Divisions, with Direct Targeting of First Responders, and New Attack Vectors (INCLUDING CHEMICAL HAZARDS AND FALSE FLAG ATROCITIES), and Targeted Degradation of Ukrainian AD (WITH INCREASED PRECISION DRONE STRIKES ON PERSONNEL/LOGISTICS), with Intensified Missile Rhetoric and Propaganda on Ukrainian Surrender): Russia will continue and likely intensify KAB and missile/UAV strikes on Ukrainian urban centers, especially those impacted by Ukrainian deep strikes (Kharkiv, Sumy, Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia) as a direct retaliation for "Operation Pavutina," other successful deep strikes, and recent attacks on Russian territory like the Azot chemical plant, reported "Iskander" strike in Bryansk, and attempted breakthrough to Moscow. New aviation munition threat to Synelnykivskyi Raion, explosions in Pavlohrad, and new KAB threats to Sumy, Northern Kharkivshchyna, and Northern Donetsk confirm this trajectory. The interception of 61 UAVs over Russian territory, including Bryansk, Belgorod, Kaluga, Tula, Oryol, Kursk, Moscow, and Crimea, and the reported strike on "Iskander" in Bryansk, will be used to justify further widespread and possibly multi-wave aerial attacks involving a mix of Shaheds, Kh-59/69s, and potentially Oniks anti-ship missiles. Colonelcassad's amplification of the Reuters report ("new, large-scale strikes are expected") confirms this intent, as does Colonelcassad's "Chronicle of strikes" video showing Ternopil fires. Russian MoD/milblogger drone videos confirm pervasive and targeted drone strikes, including at night and against communication antennas. New airstrikes reported on Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, including civilian casualties from a drone strike in Sumy. The claimed advance of Russian "Center" group into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast could be supported by heavy aviation. Concurrently, Russia will continue a persistent and aggressive information campaign, particularly regarding body/POW exchanges (using fabricated evidence), blaming Ukraine for delays, exploiting any perceived Western failures or internal divisions (e.g., US domestic unrest, Zelensky's alleged wealth, assassination attempt in Colombia, US riots), and amplifying claims of Ukrainian military personnel seeking surrender or demonstrating low morale (e.g., Zelensky's alleged wealth, "Mikol" dehumanization, "bad Ukrainians"). The focus on US migrant protests and the Colombia incident by Russian milbloggers, and the Ministry of Culture warning about the Volyn tragedy fake, support this. The Russian Ambassador's statement about "not cutting Dnipro bridges yet" is part of this narrative control. New, coordinated information operation regarding "body exchange" in Bryansk and accompanying dehumanizing language ("khokhols," "boys who signed up for endless burgers") confirms this intent. Kotsnews displaying alleged lists of fallen Ukrainian soldiers who Kyiv refused to accept is a key part of this IO. Russian diplomatic rhetoric will escalate, threatening changes to strategic arms control if Western missile deployments continue. The persistent strike on the Azot chemical plant will lead to Russian retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian chemical or industrial facilities, or an increase in strikes with a focus on creating secondary hazards. Furthermore, Russia will escalate the dissemination of false flag narratives regarding "Ukrainian atrocities" in Russian border regions (as implied by the "Kursk Oblast" map from Два майора and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's photo), and continue to propagate false claims of Ukrainian military retreats and military losses. Russia will continue to employ aviation munitions in contested areas and persist with multi-UAV attacks on cities like Mykolaiv and its surrounding areas, testing Ukrainian AD response. Russia will significantly increase the use of precision tactical drones (both FPV and loitering munitions) to directly target Ukrainian personnel (including under low-light/night conditions), logistics vehicles, and command and control nodes (including comms antennas) to disrupt frontline operations and inflict casualties, and will use propaganda to highlight these strikes. KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia Oblast will continue, causing civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure. Persistent Ukrainian UAV attacks on Moscow region and other Russian territories will continue, leading to further Russian airport restrictions and public claims of interceptions, which Russia will leverage to justify further retaliation. Russia will continue with heavy shelling, MLRS, and FPV drone attacks on civilian areas in frontline communities, particularly in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, leading to civilian casualties. The widespread reporting by Russian and Ukrainian sources on Reuters' prediction of a "strongest multilateral strike" on Ukraine, combined with the successful Azot attack and attempted Moscow breakthrough, confirms that Russia intends to conduct major retaliatory strikes.
COA 2 (Ground Offensive Support with Targeted Artillery/MLRS and Pervasive Precision Drone Strikes, while Enhancing Counter-Deep Strike Internal Security and Expanding Maritime Hybrid Operations, with Enhanced Crimean Defenses, and Increased Internal Propaganda focus alongside Divisive Narratives, and Escalating Missile Rhetoric): Russian forces will continue to press ground offensives on existing axes, supporting them with targeted artillery, MLRS, and pervasive precision tactical drone strikes against Ukrainian positions, C2 nodes, logistics, and personnel. New "Два майора" video showing mortar operations in Dnipropetrovsk direction, and Воин DV video showing night artillery/mortar impacts confirm continued localized ground and indirect fire. WarGonzo maps of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia fronts confirm active Russian offensives. The ISW map on Sumy indicates a concerted effort on that axis, advancing towards Sumy city. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Операция Z videos of FPV drone strikes on armor in Krasnoarmeysk direction confirm their ongoing use to interdict frontline logistics and manpower. MoD Russia, Воин DV, and Народная милиция ДНР drone videos, including against communication antennas, corroborate this pervasive drone use. Ukrainian "Spartan" FPV drone successes on Pokrovsk demonstrate active ground combat. Liveuamap Source reports ongoing clashes on Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Kherson, and Kursk axes, with repelled assaults. Claimed liberation of Zarya (Donetsk) and advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by "Center" Group/90th Tank Division. They will likely intensify internal security efforts to prevent and detect further Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian territory, as evidenced by attempted Moscow breakthrough and widespread UAV interceptions, and confirmed damage in Oryol Oblast. Additionally, Russia will likely attempt to conduct further hybrid maritime operations in the Black Sea, using units like "Espanola" and FPV drones as indicated by Два майора's "Black Sea, FPV-drones" posts and new Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 videos. Russia will increase internal propaganda efforts focusing on state support for veterans and promoting national unity (e.g., Военкор Котенок's volunteer reports, Kotsnews "Time of Heroes" program), while simultaneously allowing the amplification of divisive internal narratives. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's comment on weekend "collections" and Colonelcassad/Два майора appeals for equipment indicates internal monitoring of morale/support and a reliance on non-governmental funding channels for some military supplies. Полиция Хабаровского края's internal security propaganda warns against "easy money" leading to terrorism. Propaganda will also highlight improvements in battlefield medical care and troop welfare, and demonstrate military effectiveness while portraying Ukrainian military failures and casualties (e.g., Radkovka encirclement claim, Loknya occupation, Hryhorivka strongholds being cleared, destruction of Krab SPG, BMP, Leopard 2 tank by FPV drones, new FPV destruction of manpower in Krasnoarmeysk direction, abandoned Kozak-2 armored vehicle). Russia will use diplomatic channels to escalate rhetoric regarding perceived missile threats from the West, aiming to pressure international actors. Russian ground forces will continue offensive operations on existing axes, with a particular focus on gaining ground towards Konstantinovka, supported by aerial assets like helicopters (as suggested by Fighterbomber imagery). Russia will actively target Ukrainian UAV control points and supporting infrastructure in frontline areas to degrade Ukrainian drone capabilities, as evidenced by the targeting of communication antennas. Russia will maintain or increase the tempo of ground assaults on the Pokrovsk axis (65 engagements), attempt to encircle Ukrainian forces in Radkovka, exploit gains in Sumy Oblast (Loknya occupation, now advancing towards Sumy city), and continue efforts to dislodge Ukrainian forces from strongholds near Hryhorivka and Andriivka. This will be heavily supported by pervasive FPV drone operations.
2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:
2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:
2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):
MLCOA 1: Sustained and Escalated Retaliatory Saturation Attacks on Urban Centers and Critical Infrastructure, Coupled with Amplified Disinformation on Humanitarian Issues and Western Divisions, with Direct Targeting of First Responders, and New Attack Vectors (INCLUDING CHEMICAL HAZARDS AND FALSE FLAG ATROCITIES), and Targeted Degradation of Ukrainian AD (WITH INCREASED PRECISION DRONE STRIKES ON PERSONNEL/LOGISTICS), with Intensified Missile Rhetoric and Propaganda on Ukrainian Surrender: Russia will continue and likely intensify KAB and missile/UAV strikes on Ukrainian urban centers, especially those impacted by Ukrainian deep strikes (Kharkiv, Sumy, Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia) as a direct retaliation for "Operation Pavutina," other successful deep strikes, and recent attacks on Russian territory like the Azot chemical plant, reported "Iskander" strike in Bryansk, and attempted breakthrough to Moscow. New aviation munition threat to Synelnykivskyi Raion, explosions in Pavlohrad, and new KAB threats to Sumy, Northern Kharkivshchyna, and Northern Donetsk confirm this trajectory. The interception of 61 UAVs over Russian territory, including Bryansk, Belgorod, Kaluga, Tula, Oryol, Kursk, Moscow, and Crimea, and the reported strike on "Iskander" in Bryansk, will be used to justify further widespread and possibly multi-wave aerial attacks involving a mix of Shaheds, Kh-59/69s, and potentially Oniks anti-ship missiles. Colonelcassad's amplification of the Reuters report ("new, large-scale strikes are expected") confirms this intent, as does Colonelcassad's "Chronicle of strikes" video showing Ternopil fires. Russian MoD/milblogger drone videos confirm pervasive and targeted drone strikes, including at night and against communication antennas. New aviation airstrikes reported on Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, including civilian casualties from a drone strike in Sumy. Concurrently, Russia will continue a persistent and aggressive information campaign, particularly regarding body/POW exchanges (using fabricated evidence), blaming Ukraine for delays, exploiting any perceived Western failures or internal divisions (e.g., US domestic unrest, Zelensky's alleged wealth, assassination attempt in Colombia, US riots), and amplifying claims of Ukrainian military personnel seeking surrender or demonstrating low morale (e.g., Zelensky's alleged wealth, "Mikol" dehumanization, "bad Ukrainians"). The focus on US migrant protests and the Colombia incident by Russian milbloggers, and the Ministry of Culture warning about the Volyn tragedy fake, support this. The Russian Ambassador's statement about "not cutting Dnipro bridges yet" is part of this narrative control. New, coordinated information operation regarding "body exchange" in Bryansk and accompanying dehumanizing language ("khokhols," "boys who signed up for endless burgers") confirms this intent. Kotsnews publishing alleged lists of fallen Ukrainian soldiers who Kyiv refused to accept is a key part of this IO. Russian diplomatic rhetoric will escalate, threatening changes to strategic arms control if Western missile deployments continue. The persistent strike on the Azot chemical plant will lead to Russian retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian chemical or industrial facilities, or an increase in strikes with a focus on creating secondary hazards. Furthermore, Russia will escalate the dissemination of false flag narratives regarding "Ukrainian atrocities" in Russian border regions (as implied by the "Kursk Oblast" map from Два майора and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's photo), and continue to propagate false claims of Ukrainian military retreats and military losses. Russia will continue to employ aviation munitions in contested areas and persist with multi-UAV attacks on cities like Mykolaiv and its surrounding areas, testing Ukrainian AD response. Russia will significantly increase the use of precision tactical drones (both FPV and loitering munitions) to directly target Ukrainian personnel (including under low-light/night conditions), logistics vehicles, and command and control nodes (including comms antennas) to disrupt frontline operations and inflict casualties, and will use propaganda to highlight these strikes. KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia Oblast will continue, causing civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure. Persistent Ukrainian UAV attacks on Moscow region and other Russian territories will continue, leading to further Russian airport restrictions and public claims of interceptions, which Russia will leverage to justify further retaliation. Russia will continue with heavy shelling, MLRS, and FPV drone attacks on civilian areas in frontline communities, particularly in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, leading to civilian casualties.
MLCOA 2 (Ground Offensive Support with Targeted Artillery/MLRS and Pervasive Precision Drone Strikes, while Enhancing Counter-Deep Strike Internal Security and Expanding Maritime Hybrid Operations, with Enhanced Crimean Defenses, and Increased Internal Propaganda focus alongside Divisive Narratives, and Escalating Missile Rhetoric): Russian forces will continue to press ground offensives on existing axes, supporting them with targeted artillery, MLRS, and pervasive precision tactical drone strikes against Ukrainian positions, C2 nodes, logistics, and personnel. New "Два майора" video showing mortar operations in Dnipropetrovsk direction, and Воин DV video showing night artillery/mortar impacts confirm continued localized ground and indirect fire. WarGonzo maps of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia fronts confirm active Russian offensives. The ISW map on Sumy indicates a concerted effort on that axis, advancing towards Sumy city. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Операция Z videos of FPV drone strikes on armor in Krasnoarmeysk direction confirm their ongoing use to interdict frontline logistics and manpower. MoD Russia, Воин DV, and Народная милиция ДНР drone videos, including against communication antennas, corroborate this pervasive drone use. Ukrainian "Spartan" FPV drone successes on Pokrovsk demonstrate active ground combat. Liveuamap Source reports ongoing clashes on Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Kherson, and Kursk axes, with repelled assaults. Claimed liberation of Zarya (Donetsk) and advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by "Center" Group/90th Tank Division. They will likely intensify internal security efforts to prevent and detect further Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian territory, as evidenced by attempted Moscow breakthrough and widespread UAV interceptions, and confirmed damage in Oryol Oblast. Additionally, Russia will likely attempt to conduct further hybrid maritime operations in the Black Sea, using units like "Espanola" and FPV drones as indicated by Два майора's "Black Sea, FPV-drones" posts and new Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 videos. Russia will increase internal propaganda efforts focusing on state support for veterans and promoting national unity (e.g., Военкор Котенок's volunteer reports, Kotsnews "Time of Heroes" program), while simultaneously allowing the amplification of divisive internal narratives. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's comment on weekend "collections" and Colonelcassad/Два майора appeals for equipment indicates internal monitoring of morale/support and a reliance on non-governmental funding channels for some military supplies. Полиция Хабаровского края's internal security propaganda warns against "easy money" leading to terrorism. Propaganda will also highlight improvements in battlefield medical care and troop welfare, and demonstrate military effectiveness while portraying Ukrainian military failures and casualties (e.g., Radkovka encirclement claim, Loknya occupation, Hryhorivka strongholds being cleared, destruction of Krab SPG, BMP, Leopard 2 tank by FPV drones, new FPV destruction of manpower in Krasnoarmeysk direction, abandoned Kozak-2 armored vehicle). Russia will use diplomatic channels to escalate rhetoric regarding perceived missile threats from the West, aiming to pressure international actors. Russian ground forces will continue offensive operations on existing axes, with a particular focus on gaining ground towards Konstantinovka, supported by aerial assets like helicopters (as suggested by Fighterbomber imagery). Russia will actively target Ukrainian UAV control points and supporting infrastructure in frontline areas to degrade Ukrainian drone capabilities, as evidenced by the targeting of communication antennas. Russia will maintain or increase the tempo of ground assaults on the Pokrovsk axis (65 engagements), attempt to encircle Ukrainian forces in Radkovka, exploit gains in Sumy Oblast (Loknya occupation, now advancing towards Sumy city), and continue efforts to dislodge Ukrainian forces from strongholds near Hryhorivka and Andriivka. This will be heavily supported by pervasive FPV drone operations. * Confidence: HIGH * Indicators: (Previous indicators apply). DeepState reporting Loknya occupation in Sumy Oblast. Russian milblogger Marochko (TASS) claiming encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Radkovka, Kharkiv, and clearing Hryhorivka. Оперативний ЗСУ reporting 65/193 combat engagements in Pokrovsk direction and 25 repelled attacks in Southern Donetsk. TASS/Воин DV/Colonelcassad videos showing FPV drone destruction of Ukrainian Krab SPG, BMP, Leopard 2 tank, and dugouts. Fighterbomber imagery suggesting ongoing helicopter operations. "Два майора" video showing mortar operations in Dnipropetrovsk direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 comment on weekend "collections". Ukrainian Air Force reports reconnaissance UAVs in Northern Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 FPV drone footage in Krasnoarmeysk direction. WarGonzo maps of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Fronts. ISW map of Sumy direction. Воин DV night artillery/mortar impacts. Colonelcassad and Два майора appeals for equipment. WarGonzo "Sparta" FPV drone operations on logistics. "Espanola" unit activity. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video implies Ukrainian ground action in Andriivka. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Операция Z videos of FPV drone strikes in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Два майора's "Black Sea, FPV-drones" posts. Kherson wildfire from Два майора. Оперативний ЗСУ "Spartan" FPV drone video on Pokrovsk direction. Два майора video of abandoned Kozak-2. MoD Russia/Воин DV/Народная милиция ДНР drone strike videos. Военкор Котенок volunteer aid report. Liveuamap Source reports of clashes on Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Kherson, and Kursk axes. MoD Russia/ТАСС claimed liberation of Zarya (Donetsk) and advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video (Espanola unit). Kotsnews "Time of Heroes" program. Полиция Хабаровского края propaganda. Два майора "Project Volley" post. Старше Эдды video with dehumanizing "burgers" caption. Alex Parker Returns "laughed" post.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):
MDCOA 1: Renewed Large-Scale Ballistic/Cruise Missile Campaign to Cripple Ukrainian AD and Energy/Logistics Infrastructure, with Increased Focus on Chemical/Industrial Targets, and Pre-strike AD Suppression, accompanied by Escalating Missile Rhetoric leading to Actual Missile Deployments: Russia, despite Iskander losses, will launch a renewed, multi-wave missile and drone campaign targeting Ukraine's critical national infrastructure, with a specific emphasis on overwhelming weakened Ukrainian air defenses and inflicting widespread damage as a "revenge strike" for the Tu-22M3 and other strategic losses. The confirmed drone attack on Moscow, the reported "Iskander" strike in Bryansk, the widespread reporting by Russian and Ukrainian sources on Reuters' prediction of a "strongest multilateral strike" on Ukraine, combined with the confirmed UAV attack on the "Azot" chemical plant in Novomoskovsk, and the confirmed damage in Oryol Oblast, significantly increase the probability of this MDCOA, as Russia will use these incidents as a pretext for a severe, coordinated, and disproportionate response. Colonelcassad's "Chronicle of strikes" video showing Ternopil fires indicates the ongoing nature of these strikes. New Ukrainian casualty in Kharkiv from air attack and ongoing KAB warnings for Sumy/Kharkiv/Donetsk reinforce this. New aviation airstrikes reported on multiple Ukrainian oblasts, including Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, with civilian casualties from drone in Sumy. The persistent targeting of the Azot chemical plant, now confirmed as a source for explosives in artillery shells, may trigger a significant, high-volume missile retaliation aimed at Ukraine's critical infrastructure, potentially including targets with industrial chemical significance, aiming to create secondary hazards and disrupt Ukrainian defense production. Prior to or concurrent with these strikes, Russia may conduct widespread air defense suppression operations to improve the effectiveness of their missile and drone attacks. The sustained use of aviation munitions and multi-UAV attacks could be precursors to a larger, more coordinated aerial assault. The increased activity of Russian tactical aviation in the southeastern direction could be a precursor to massed KAB strikes or a coordinated aviation strike package. The explicit statements from Russian MFA on missile deployments and the end of the moratorium could signal preparations for a new phase of strategic missile testing or even deployment in response to perceived Western threats. The increased frequency of UAV attacks on Moscow and resulting airport closures could serve as a trigger or justification for such a large-scale missile campaign, framed as necessary retaliation. The inclusion of an Oniks anti-ship missile in the recent attack indicates Russia's willingness to use diverse, high-value missile assets, making this MDCOA even more dangerous. Colonelcassad's video showing a large explosion with sounds of impact and distress ("Дождался...") may be a precursor or BDA of a recent significant strike that could justify such a large-scale missile campaign. New aviation munition threat to Synelnykivskyi Raion, explosions in Pavlohrad, and new KAB threats to Sumy, Northern Kharkivshchyna, Northern Donetsk indicate ongoing preparations. Russian AD successfully downing 3 more Ukrainian UAVs today over Moscow, Belgorod, and Bryansk provides further justification for a major Russian response.
MDCOA 2: Attempted Strategic Breakthrough on Sumy Axis with Major Force Commitment and Massed Air Support (with Chemical Warfare consideration/False Flag Pretext), Enabled by Prior AD Suppression, or Major Breakthrough in Southern Donetsk, Supported by Increased Psychological Operations, or Accelerated Push on Konstantinovka: Russia commits substantial additional reserves to the Sumy axis, initiating a rapid, decisive breakthrough aimed at encircling or seizing Sumy city. The confirmed occupation of Loknya by DeepState and further advances towards Sumy city (ISW map) indicate a clear Russian intent and successful tactical advance on this axis, making a larger strategic push more dangerous. New KAB threats to Sumy confirm continued aerial preparation. New aviation airstrikes reported on Sumy region (Liveuamap Source). This would involve overwhelming combined arms force, massed KAB strikes to suppress Ukrainian defenses, and deep strikes to neutralize Ukrainian command and control and logistics in the region. New KAB threats to eastern Kharkiv and northern Donetsk (from previous report) and aviation munition threat to Synelnykivskyi Raion (previous report) could indicate preparatory air strikes for such a ground offensive. New Russian reconnaissance UAVs in Northern Zaporizhzhia (previous report) and Eastern Dnipropetrovsk (new report) could be for target acquisition ahead of a breakthrough attempt. WarGonzo maps of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia fronts and the ISW map of Sumy confirm current offensive operations that could escalate. Liveuamap Source reports ongoing clashes on Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Kherson, and Kursk axes, with repelled assaults. Claimed liberation of Zarya (Donetsk) and advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by "Center" Group/90th Tank Division. This would be significantly facilitated by prior air defense suppression operations. Given the recent persistent strike on the Azot chemical plant, and Russia's past false flag attempts regarding chemical weapons, there is a low but non-zero risk of Russia preparing to conduct an operation with chemical munitions or a "dirty bomb" in the context of a strategic breakthrough, or blame Ukraine for such an event, potentially fabricating evidence. The recent Russian false flag propaganda concerning "Ukrainian occupation" and mass casualties in Kursk Oblast (as implied by Два майора map and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo) provides a potential pretext for such an escalation or for justifying a disproportionate response. Alternatively, Russia could concentrate forces for a strategic breakthrough in the Southern Donetsk direction, leveraging claimed gains around Stupochky, Hryhorivka, and Andriivka to expand an offensive aimed at a larger operational objective. This would be supported by amplified psychological operations claiming mass Ukrainian surrenders or demoralization to undermine resistance. An accelerated and decisive push to seize Konstantinovka, leveraging massed fire and air support, could also occur, aimed at disrupting Ukrainian logistics in the Donetsk region. Given the continued high intensity of ground assaults on Pokrovsk and Southern Donetsk, the confirmed advances in Sumy, and the confirmed effectiveness of Russian FPV drones in targeting Ukrainian armor and manpower (including the Kozak-2 vehicle), a multi-axis strategic push to achieve significant territorial gains in the East and Northeast, potentially supported by overwhelming drone and air assets, is a highly dangerous possibility that warrants close monitoring. "Два майора" video showing mortar operations in Dnipropetrovsk direction, and Воин DV night artillery/mortar impacts confirm continued localized ground pressure supporting broader objectives. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Операция Z videos of FPV drone strikes in Krasnoarmeysk direction and MoD Russia, Воин DV, Narodna Militsiya DNR drone videos confirm high effectiveness of FPV drones on this axis, including against C2/comms.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:
Next 24-48 Hours (Short-Term):
Next 72 Hours (Medium-Term):
Next 1 Week (Near-Term Strategic):
Prioritize and Augment Air Defense for Eastern, Southern, Central, Western, and Northern Urban Centers, with Enhanced First Responder Protection and Adapting to New UAV/Missile Ingress Routes, While Assessing and Mitigating AD Losses, and Preparing for Major Retaliatory Strikes (Immediate & Urgent):
Sustain and Exploit Deep Strike Successes, Prepare for Retaliation and Enhanced Russian Defenses, Targeting Chemical/Industrial Nodes Critical to Ammunition Production, While Assessing Russian Internal Security Adaptations and Countering Russian UAV C2 (Urgent):
Intensify Counter-Information Warfare on Humanitarian Issues, Western Divisions, and Russian Fabrications, Addressing Internal Russian Propaganda, and Debunking False Claims of Success, including New "Surrender" Narratives and Strategic Missile Rhetoric (Ongoing & Critical):
Reinforce and Monitor Sumy and Donetsk Axes Defenses, Verify Russian Claims, and Account for Potential AD Degradation, while Adapting to New Precision Drone Threats and Countering Russian Ground Offensives (Urgent):
Enhance Maritime Security in the Black Sea and Crimea, and Bolster Air Defense in Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kherson, while maintaining vigilance on Russian naval operations (New & Critical):
END REPORT
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