Situation Report

OPSEC CLASSIFICATION: NATO SECRET // RELEASABLE TO UKR FORCES

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) TIME OF REPORT: 08 JUN 25 / 05:12 ZULU REPORTING PERIOD: 08 JUN 25 / 04:42 ZULU - 08 JUN 25 / 05:12 ZULU PREPARED BY: Senior Military Intelligence Analyst, Eastern European Warfare Desk

---

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• AOR Update: Kharkiv Oblast, Volyn Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (including Synelnykivskyi Raion, Mezheva community, Nikopol, Marhanets community), Zaporizhzhia Oblast (including Stepnohirsk community, Vasylivskyi Raion, Prymorske village), Black Sea, Azov Sea, Sumy Oblast, Russian Federation (Kursk, Bryansk, Kaluga - including Sukhinichi and Borovsk districts, Smolensk Oblasts, Moscow Region including Dubna, Podmoskovye, Moscow city, Pushkino, Vnukovo Airport, Domodedovo Airport; Irkutsk region - Belaya airfield; Tambov Oblast - Michurinsk; Ryazan Oblast - Dyagilevo; Belgorod Oblast - Prokhorovka-Belenikhino, Zhuravlevka, Pushkarozhadinsky, Azov - Rostov Oblast, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast - Kstovo, Sevastopol, Lipetsk Oblast, Orel Oblast, Tula Oblast - Novomoskovsk, Azot chemical plant), Southern Donetsk Direction (including Stupochky), Konstantinovka direction, Siversk direction, Odesa Oblast, Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo - Alekseevka, Chasov Yar, Kramatorsk axis, Toretsk axis, Novopavlivka axis, Krasnoarmeysk-Novosergeevka, Maryinka, Dalnee, Sokol, Lipovoe, Bakhmut, Progress, Kleshcheevka, Vasyutinskoye, south Donetsk region), Kupyansk axis, Kherson axis, Ternopil Oblast, Kyiv, Krasnoarmeysk direction, Lviv Oblast, Mykolaiv Oblast (including Varvarivka, Matviivka, Voskresenske, Konstantinivka), Poltava Oblast, Kirovohrad Oblast, Vinnytsia Oblast, Cherkasy Oblast, Zhytomyr Oblast, Kyiv Oblast, Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). Lyman Direction.

• New Developments (Kiev, UKR): Vitaliy Klichko reports that 18 injured civilians remain in hospitals from the June 6th night attack on Kyiv, with 6 in serious condition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Ukrainian official source).

• New Developments (Kherson Oblast, UKR): Ukrainian forces executed an air strike using two French-supplied missiles on a Russian UAV control point in Kherson Oblast. Video confirms strike on a building, likely part of an industrial or storage complex. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Ukrainian source, BDA visible).

• New Developments (Russian Federation): Russian MoD reports 61 Ukrainian UAVs were intercepted over Russian regions and annexed Crimea overnight. AV BogomaZ (Bryansk governor) reports 10 aircraft-type UAVs were destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Official Russian sources).

• New Developments (General):

  • Ukrainian General Staff (Оперативний ЗСУ) reports 1120 Russian personnel, 1 aircraft, and 1 air defense system were "denazified" (destroyed/neutralized) in the past day. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Ukrainian official source, awaiting independent verification of specific claims).
  • DeepState map has been updated. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Ukrainian OSINT source).
  • Russian milblogger "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" confirms the MoD report of 61 UAVs downed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger corroboration).
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports air raid alert has been lifted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Ukrainian official source).
  • Colonelcassad shares a propaganda video featuring a Russian water tanker driver ("Neptune") discussing FPV drone threats and vehicle maintenance near the LBS. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger source, indicative of persistent FPV drone threat).
  • Reuters, citing US officials, reports that a "serious reaction" from Putin to "Operation Pavutina" (Tu-22M3 strike) has not yet occurred. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - International news agency citing US officials).
  • Ukrainian General Staff provides operational information as of 08:00 on 08.06.2025, including detailed maps of hypothetical combat operations on Kursk, Kharkiv, Kupiansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Huliaipole, Orikhiv, and Prydniprovskyi directions. These maps indicate significant Russian territorial gains in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and parts of Kharkiv, as well as a hypothetical Ukrainian counter-offensive or raid into Kursk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Ukrainian official source for maps; LOW - for the hypothetical nature of future territory depicted).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations:

• Sustained UAV activity over Russian territory (61 interceptions) and continued ground combat across multiple axes indicate generally favorable conditions for both air and ground operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The lifting of air alerts in Zaporizhzhia suggests a temporary cessation of, or successful neutralization of, recent air threats in that area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces (Air/ISR/Strike):
  • Continued deep strike operations force Russian AD responses. The confirmed air strike on a Russian UAV C2 point in Kherson Oblast demonstrates persistent counter-drone efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Deep strike capabilities continue to target strategic Russian assets, as evidenced by the Tu-22M3 bomber strike ("Operation Pavutina"), although a full "serious reaction" from Russia is not yet observed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian Forces (Ground): Forces are engaged in active defense across multiple axes, including Kursk (hypothetical), Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Huliaipole, Orikhiv, and Prydniprovskyi directions, as per General Staff maps. Ukrainian defenders are reportedly stopping Russian offensive actions in Pokrovsk direction (65 attacks). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian Forces (Information Operations):
  • General Staff continues to provide daily estimates of Russian losses, contributing to morale and information warfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Kyiv city administration provides transparent updates on civilian casualties from Russian attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • DeepState continues to provide map updates, contributing to public situational awareness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Forces (Air/ISR/Strike):
  • Russia continues to launch UAVs against Ukrainian territory (Kyiv civilian casualties from June 6th attack still being treated). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Russian AD forces demonstrate continued capability to intercept Ukrainian UAVs over Russian territory and Crimea, claiming 61 shot down. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Russian milbloggers continue to disseminate content, including propaganda on troop resilience and the constant threat from Ukrainian FPV drones (Colonelcassad). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Forces (Ground): Russian forces are conducting offensive operations on multiple axes, as detailed in the Ukrainian General Staff maps, with heavy pressure reported in the Pokrovsk direction (65 attacks repelled). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Forces (Information Operations): Russian MoD and affiliated milbloggers consistently report Ukrainian UAV interceptions over Russian territory to reassure the domestic audience and portray effective defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

---

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Capabilities:
  • Air Defense (Internal RU): Demonstrated robust capability to detect and intercept a high volume of Ukrainian UAVs over Russian territory and Crimea (61 drones shot down). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Offensive Ground Operations: Maintaining multi-axis offensive capabilities, particularly on the Donetsk front (Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk axes), and continued pressure on Sumy and Kharkiv axes, as indicated by Ukrainian General Staff maps. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Indirect Fire/UAV Strikes: Capable of sustained and impactful attacks on Ukrainian civilian centers (Kyiv) and frontline areas using various munitions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Counter-UAV (Tactical): Actively targeting Ukrainian UAV control points (as evidenced by Ukrainian strike on Russian C2 point in Kherson). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Intentions:
  • Degrade Ukrainian Combat Effectiveness: Continue multi-domain pressure across the frontline and in rear areas to exhaust Ukrainian resources and resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Inflict Civilian Casualties & Damage Infrastructure: Deliberate targeting of civilian areas continues to aim for psychological impact and to disrupt normal life (Kyiv casualties). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Control Domestic Narrative & Justify Actions: Continue to claim high interception rates of Ukrainian UAVs and highlight enemy attrition to maintain internal confidence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Reinforce Ground Gains: Intensify efforts on key axes (Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, Orikhiv) to achieve tactical breakthroughs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Counter Ukrainian Deep Strikes: Actively seeking to degrade Ukrainian deep strike and drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Courses of Action (COA):

  • COA 1 (MLCOA - Sustained and Escalated Retaliatory Saturation Attacks on Urban Centers and Critical Infrastructure, Coupled with Amplified Disinformation on Humanitarian Issues and Western Divisions, with Direct Targeting of First Responders, and New Attack Vectors (INCLUDING CHEMICAL HAZARDS AND FALSE FLAG ATROCITIES), and Targeted Degradation of Ukrainian AD (WITH INCREASED PRECISION DRONE STRIKES ON PERSONNEL/LOGISTICS), with Intensified Missile Rhetoric and Propaganda on Ukrainian Surrender): Russia will continue and likely intensify KAB and missile/UAV strikes on Ukrainian urban centers, especially those impacted by Ukrainian deep strikes. Concurrently, Russia will continue a persistent and aggressive information campaign, particularly regarding body/POW exchanges (using fabricated evidence), blaming Ukraine for delays, exploiting any perceived Western failures or internal divisions, and amplifying claims of Ukrainian military personnel seeking surrender or demonstrating low morale. Russian diplomatic rhetoric will escalate, threatening changes to strategic arms control if Western missile deployments continue. The persistent strike on the Azot chemical plant will lead to Russian retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian chemical or industrial facilities, or an increase in strikes with a focus on creating secondary hazards. Furthermore, Russia will escalate the dissemination of false flag narratives regarding "Ukrainian atrocities" in Russian border regions, and continue to propagate false claims of Ukrainian military retreats and military losses. Russia will continue to employ aviation munitions in contested areas and persist with multi-UAV attacks on cities like Mykolaiv and its surrounding areas, testing Ukrainian AD response. Russia will significantly increase the use of precision tactical drones (both FPV and loitering munitions) to directly target Ukrainian personnel (including under low-light/night conditions), logistics vehicles, and command and control nodes to disrupt frontline operations and inflict casualties, and will use propaganda to highlight these strikes. KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia Oblast will continue, causing civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure. Persistent Ukrainian UAV attacks on Moscow region will continue, leading to further Russian airport restrictions and public claims of interceptions, which Russia will leverage to justify further retaliation. Russia will continue with heavy shelling, MLRS, and FPV drone attacks on civilian areas in frontline communities, particularly in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, leading to civilian casualties. Russia will continue to conduct massed UAV attacks against Ukrainian cities, as evidenced by the 6 June attack on Kyiv.

    • Confidence: HIGH (Further Strengthened - due to persistent civilian casualties in Kyiv from recent attack, and Reuters report on no "serious reaction" yet, implying one is still highly likely).
    • Indicators: (Previous indicators apply). RBC-Ukraine reporting 18 injured civilians remaining in Kyiv hospitals from June 6th attack. Reuters citing US officials stating "serious reaction" to "Operation Pavutina" has not yet occurred.

  • COA 2 (Ground Offensive Support with Targeted Artillery/MLRS and Pervasive Precision Drone Strikes, while Enhancing Counter-Deep Strike Internal Security and Expanding Maritime Hybrid Operations, with Enhanced Crimean Defenses, and Increased Internal Propaganda focus alongside Divisive Narratives, and Escalating Missile Rhetoric): Russian forces will continue to press ground offensives on existing axes, supporting them with targeted artillery, MLRS, and pervasive precision tactical drone strikes against Ukrainian positions, C2 nodes, logistics, and personnel. They will likely intensify internal security efforts to prevent and detect further Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian territory. Additionally, Russia will likely attempt to conduct further hybrid maritime operations in the Black Sea. Russia will increase internal propaganda efforts focusing on state support for veterans and promoting national unity, while simultaneously allowing the amplification of divisive internal narratives. Propaganda will also highlight improvements in battlefield medical care and troop welfare, and demonstrate military effectiveness while portraying Ukrainian military failures and casualties. Russia will use diplomatic channels to escalate rhetoric regarding perceived missile threats from the West, aiming to pressure international actors. Russian ground forces will continue offensive operations on existing axes, with a particular focus on gaining ground towards Konstantinovka, supported by aerial assets like helicopters. Russia will actively target Ukrainian UAV control points and supporting infrastructure in frontline areas to degrade Ukrainian drone capabilities. Russian forces will maintain intense pressure on the Pokrovsk axis, as evidenced by 65 offensive actions.

    • Confidence: HIGH (Further Strengthened - due to Ukrainian General Staff reporting 65 Russian offensive actions in Pokrovsk direction).
    • Indicators: (Previous indicators apply). Ukrainian General Staff map/report showing 65 Russian offensive actions repelled in Pokrovsk direction. Colonelcassad video highlighting FPV drone threat to Russian logistics, implying continued Russian reliance on and vulnerability to drones.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• Targeting (RU): Continued deliberate targeting of civilian areas with UAVs (Kyiv). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Air Defense (RU): Russian AD demonstrates consistent high-volume interception capability against Ukrainian UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Counter-UAV (UKR): Ukrainian forces actively targeting Russian UAV C2 points in frontline areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ground Offensives (RU): Sustaining high tempo and multiple axes of attack in Eastern Ukraine (Pokrovsk direction 65 attacks). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• Munitions (RU): Continued high volume of UAV launches and sustained ground offensives indicate sufficient munitions supply for current operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The Colonelcassad video on the water tanker suggests logistical challenges near the front line, but also efforts to sustain operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Air Defense (RU): Consistent high interception rates suggest adequate AD missile inventory. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• Russian C2 for air defense and offensive ground operations remains effective, coordinating multi-domain attacks and large-scale ground assaults. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Ukrainian C2 for deep strike operations and defensive ground operations remains effective, as demonstrated by the UAV C2 strike and successful defense in Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Kyiv city administration demonstrates effective civilian C2 in managing attack aftermath. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

---

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Air Defense: Continues to face persistent Russian air/UAV threats, as evidenced by the lingering civilian casualties in Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ground Forces: Maintaining a defensive posture on critical axes, successfully repelling a high volume of Russian attacks in the Pokrovsk direction (65 attacks). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Forces are also conducting counter-offensives or raids into Kursk Oblast (hypothetical, based on map). (CONFIDENCE: LOW).
• Deep Strike Capabilities: Sustaining capability to conduct deep strikes against high-value Russian targets, requiring adaptation by Russian internal security. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Counter-Drone Operations: Actively targeting Russian UAV infrastructure in frontline areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Casualty Assessment: Ukrainian General Staff continues to provide estimated enemy casualty figures, suggesting ongoing combat and effective engagement of Russian forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes:
  • Deep Strike Persistence & Impact: Continued successful deep strikes against strategic Russian assets (Tu-22M3, Kstovo refinery) forcing Russian adaptations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Counter-UAV C2 Strike: Successful air strike on a Russian UAV control point in Kherson Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Defensive Resilience: Successfully repelling 65 Russian offensive actions in the Pokrovsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Russian Losses: General Staff claims significant Russian personnel, aircraft, and AD system losses. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
• Setbacks:
  • Civilian Casualties (Kyiv): Lingering civilian casualties from the June 6th attack on Kyiv highlight the ongoing vulnerability to Russian air assaults. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Persistent Russian Pressure: Continued high tempo of Russian ground offensives on multiple axes (Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, Orikhiv) represents sustained pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Deep State Map: The hypothetical future map depicting significant Russian territorial gains and advances close to key Ukrainian cities (Kramatorsk, Orikhiv, Kupiansk) suggests a concerning long-term trajectory if not addressed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for map content; LOW - for predictive accuracy of hypothetical future).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Air Defense: Continued civilian casualties and high number of Russian UAV interceptions underscore the ongoing need for robust air defense systems and munitions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ground Forces: Sustaining defense against high-intensity ground assaults requires continuous resupply of ammunition, personnel, and equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• ISR & Counter-drone: Need for enhanced ISR and counter-drone capabilities to identify and target Russian UAV control points and tactical drone units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

---

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian Propaganda (Internal & External):
  • Downplaying Deep Strikes: Russian MoD and milbloggers (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) emphasize high interception rates of Ukrainian UAVs over Russian territory to reassure the domestic audience and minimize the perceived impact of Ukrainian deep strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Maintaining Troop Morale: Colonelcassad's video focusing on a resilient driver highlights the efforts to sustain morale amidst FPV drone threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Exploiting Western Narratives: Rolling Stone report on Trump/Musk dispute suggests Russia may leverage internal Western disagreements to undermine unity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian Counter-Propaganda/Information Operations:
  • Reporting Enemy Losses: General Staff's infographic on Russian losses (1120 personnel, 1 aircraft, 1 PVO) aims to boost morale and highlight Ukrainian effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - as IO tactic).
  • Transparency on Casualties: Kyiv city administration's update on civilian casualties from Russian attacks serves to highlight Russian aggression and solicit international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Highlighting Successes: Reporting the air strike on the Russian UAV C2 point in Kherson aims to demonstrate proactive defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Hypothetical Map: The General Staff's inclusion of a "Map of Combat Operations" dated 07.06.2025 (despite its hypothetical nature and concerning implications) might be intended to prepare the public for long-term conflict, emphasize the challenges, or provoke a response from Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - as IO tactic; LOW - for its literal interpretation as a future forecast).
  • Addressing Western Support Concerns: Reuters report citing US officials about Putin's "serious reaction" to "Operation Pavutina" indicates an effort by allies to manage expectations and underline the significance of Ukrainian strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Negative Impact (UKR): Lingering civilian casualties in Kyiv and ongoing attacks in frontline areas continue to cause distress and fear among the civilian population. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Mixed Impact (RU): High interception rates of Ukrainian UAVs likely boost confidence in Russian air defense. However, the Colonelcassad video (driver facing FPV drones) subtly acknowledges the persistent threat and psychological toll on frontline personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Uncertain Impact (UKR/RU): The hypothetical future map (General Staff) could have varied impacts: for some, it might instill fear or resignation, while for others, it could harden resolve for a prolonged struggle. (CONFIDENCE: LOW - on precise impact; HIGH - on potential for varied impacts).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Reuters citing US officials on "Operation Pavutina" reaction highlights continued US intelligence sharing and analysis, indicating ongoing international engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The Rolling Stone report on Trump/Musk signals potential for internal Western political divisions to affect perceptions of the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

---

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• MLCOA 1: Sustained and Escalated Retaliatory Saturation Attacks on Urban Centers and Critical Infrastructure, Coupled with Amplified Disinformation on Humanitarian Issues and Western Divisions, with Direct Targeting of First Responders, and New Attack Vectors (INCLUDING CHEMICAL HAZARDS AND FALSE FLAG ATROCITIES), and Targeted Degradation of Ukrainian AD (WITH INCREASED PRECISION DRONE STRIKES ON PERSONNEL/LOGISTICS), with Intensified Missile Rhetoric and Propaganda on Ukrainian Surrender: Russia will continue and likely intensify KAB and missile/UAV strikes on Ukrainian urban centers, especially those impacted by Ukrainian deep strikes (Kharkiv, Sumy, Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia) as a direct retaliation for "Operation Pavutina" and other successful deep strikes. Concurrently, Russia will continue a persistent and aggressive information campaign, particularly regarding body/POW exchanges (using fabricated evidence), blaming Ukraine for delays, exploiting any perceived Western failures or internal divisions, and amplifying claims of Ukrainian military personnel seeking surrender or demonstrating low morale. Russian diplomatic rhetoric will escalate, threatening changes to strategic arms control if Western missile deployments continue. The persistent strike on the Azot chemical plant will lead to Russian retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian chemical or industrial facilities, or an increase in strikes with a focus on creating secondary hazards. Furthermore, Russia will escalate the dissemination of false flag narratives regarding "Ukrainian atrocities" in Russian border regions, and continue to propagate false claims of Ukrainian military retreats and military losses. Russia will continue to employ aviation munitions in contested areas and persist with multi-UAV attacks on cities like Mykolaiv and its surrounding areas, testing Ukrainian AD response. Russia will significantly increase the use of precision tactical drones (both FPV and loitering munitions) to directly target Ukrainian personnel (including under low-light/night conditions), logistics vehicles, and command and control nodes to disrupt frontline operations and inflict casualties, and will use propaganda to highlight these strikes. KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia Oblast will continue, causing civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure. Persistent Ukrainian UAV attacks on Moscow region will continue, leading to further Russian airport restrictions and public claims of interceptions, which Russia will leverage to justify further retaliation. Russia will continue with heavy shelling, MLRS, and FPV drone attacks on civilian areas in frontline communities, particularly in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, leading to civilian casualties. Given Reuters' report, a major "revenge strike" is still highly likely to be implemented within 24-48 hours, targeting urban centers, energy, and military-industrial complex facilities, potentially with increased intensity and target variety.

  • Confidence: HIGH
  • Indicators: (Previous indicators apply). RBC-Ukraine reporting 18 injured civilians remaining in Kyiv hospitals from June 6th attack, indicating continued impact of such strikes. Reuters citing US officials stating "serious reaction" to "Operation Pavutina" has not yet occurred, implying it is forthcoming.

• MLCOA 2 (Ground Offensive Support with Targeted Artillery/MLRS and Pervasive Precision Drone Strikes, while Enhancing Counter-Deep Strike Internal Security and Expanding Maritime Hybrid Operations, with Enhanced Crimean Defenses, and Increased Internal Propaganda focus alongside Divisive Narratives, and Escalating Missile Rhetoric): Russian forces will continue to press ground offensives on existing axes, supporting them with targeted artillery, MLRS, and pervasive precision tactical drone strikes against Ukrainian positions, C2 nodes, logistics, and personnel. They will likely intensify internal security efforts to prevent and detect further Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian territory, as evidenced by high interception rates over Bryansk and other regions. Additionally, Russia will likely attempt to conduct further hybrid maritime operations in the Black Sea. Russia will increase internal propaganda efforts focusing on state support for veterans and promoting national unity, while simultaneously allowing the amplification of divisive internal narratives. Propaganda will also highlight improvements in battlefield medical care and troop welfare, and demonstrate military effectiveness while portraying Ukrainian military failures and casualties. Russia will use diplomatic channels to escalate rhetoric regarding perceived missile threats from the West, aiming to pressure international actors. Russian ground forces will continue offensive operations on existing axes, with a particular focus on gaining ground towards Konstantinovka, supported by aerial assets like helicopters. Russia will actively target Ukrainian UAV control points and supporting infrastructure in frontline areas to degrade Ukrainian drone capabilities. Russia will maintain or increase the tempo of ground assaults on the Pokrovsk axis, attempting to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses, and will continue to press advances on other key axes (Kramatorsk, Orikhiv, Sumy), as indicated by Ukrainian General Staff maps.

  • Confidence: HIGH
  • Indicators: (Previous indicators apply). Ukrainian General Staff map/report showing 65 Russian offensive actions repelled in Pokrovsk direction, indicating sustained pressure. Russian MoD/AV BogomaZ reporting high interception rates of Ukrainian UAVs over Russian territory, signaling continued internal security efforts. Colonelcassad video highlighting FPV drone threat to Russian logistics, implying continued Russian reliance on and vulnerability to drones, thus an ongoing need for tactical counter-drone efforts.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• MDCOA 1: Renewed Large-Scale Ballistic/Cruise Missile Campaign to Cripple Ukrainian AD and Energy/Logistics Infrastructure, with Increased Focus on Chemical/Industrial Targets, and Pre-strike AD Suppression, accompanied by Escalating Missile Rhetoric leading to Actual Missile Deployments: Russia, despite Iskander losses, will launch a renewed, multi-wave missile and drone campaign targeting Ukraine's critical national infrastructure, with a specific emphasis on overwhelming weakened Ukrainian air defenses and inflicting widespread damage as a "revenge strike" for the Tu-22M3 and other strategic losses. The persistent targeting of the Azot chemical plant, now confirmed as a source for explosives in artillery shells, may trigger a significant, high-volume missile retaliation aimed at Ukraine's critical infrastructure, potentially including targets with industrial chemical significance, aiming to create secondary hazards and disrupt Ukrainian defense production. Prior to or concurrent with these strikes, Russia may conduct widespread air defense suppression operations to improve the effectiveness of their missile and drone attacks. The sustained use of aviation munitions and multi-UAV attacks could be precursors to a larger, more coordinated aerial assault. The increased activity of Russian tactical aviation in the southeastern direction could be a precursor to massed KAB strikes or a coordinated aviation strike package. The explicit statements from Russian MFA on missile deployments and the end of the moratorium could signal preparations for a new phase of strategic missile testing or even deployment in response to perceived Western threats. The increased frequency of UAV attacks on Moscow and resulting airport closures could serve as a trigger or justification for such a large-scale missile campaign, framed as necessary retaliation. The lack of a "serious reaction" from Putin so far, as reported by Reuters, increases the likelihood of a coordinated, disproportionate "revenge strike" that aligns with this MDCOA, potentially using all available missile and drone types to inflict maximum damage and psychological impact.

  • Confidence: HIGH (Further Strengthened - due to explicit Reuters reporting on lack of serious reaction so far, implying a major one is pending, aligning with previous MDCOA predictions).
  • Indicators: (Previous indicators apply). Reuters citing US officials stating "serious reaction" to "Operation Pavutina" has not yet occurred. Continued high frequency of Ukrainian deep strikes into Russia.

• MDCOA 2: Attempted Strategic Breakthrough on Sumy Axis with Major Force Commitment and Massed Air Support (with Chemical Warfare consideration/False Flag Pretext), Enabled by Prior AD Suppression, or Major Breakthrough in Southern Donetsk, Supported by Increased Psychological Operations, or Accelerated Push on Konstantinovka: Russia commits substantial additional reserves to the Sumy axis, initiating a rapid, decisive breakthrough aimed at encircling or seizing Sumy city. This would involve overwhelming combined arms force, massed KAB strikes to suppress Ukrainian defenses, and deep strikes to neutralize Ukrainian command and control and logistics in the region. This would be significantly facilitated by prior air defense suppression operations. Given the recent persistent strike on the Azot chemical plant, and Russia's past false flag attempts regarding chemical weapons, there is a low but non-zero risk of Russia preparing to conduct an operation with chemical munitions or a "dirty bomb" in the context of a strategic breakthrough, or blame Ukraine for such an event, potentially fabricating evidence. The recent Russian false flag propaganda concerning "Ukrainian occupation" and mass casualties in Kursk Oblast provides a potential pretext for such an escalation or for justifying a disproportionate response. Alternatively, Russia could concentrate forces for a strategic breakthrough in the Southern Donetsk direction, leveraging claimed gains around Stupochky to expand an offensive aimed at a larger operational objective. This would be supported by amplified psychological operations claiming mass Ukrainian surrenders or demoralization to undermine resistance. An accelerated and decisive push to seize Konstantinovka, leveraging massed fire and air support, could also occur, aimed at disrupting Ukrainian logistics in the Donetsk region. Given the Ukrainian General Staff's hypothetical future map, a strategic push towards Orikhiv, Kramatorsk, or Kupiansk, or a renewed push into Sumy Oblast to achieve significant territorial gains, is a dangerous possibility that warrants close monitoring.

  • Confidence: MEDIUM (Further Strengthened - due to the General Staff's hypothetical future map showing significant Russian territorial gains on key axes, indicating a possible long-term Russian strategic objective).
  • Indicators: (Previous indicators apply). Ukrainian General Staff "Map of Combat Operations" (hypothetical future) depicting significant Russian territorial gains in Donetsk (Kramatorsk, Pokrovsk), Zaporizhzhia (Orikhiv, Huliaipole), and Kharkiv (Kupiansk) Oblasts. Continued high intensity of ground assaults on Pokrovsk axis (65 attacks).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Next 24-48 Hours (Short-Term):

  • Immediate Retaliation/Sustained Attacks: Expect continued, possibly intensified, KAB and missile/UAV strikes on Kharkiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia (including Stepnohirsk, Vasylivskyi Raion, Prymorske), Mykolaiv, Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk (including Synelnykivskyi Raion, Nikopol, Marhanets community), Vinnytsia, Kyiv, and Zhytomyr Oblasts, with heightened risk of targeting first responders and civilian infrastructure. A major "revenge strike" by Russia for recent deep strike losses is highly likely within this timeframe. Expect continued Russian propaganda amplifying Western divisions and escalating false flag narratives regarding Ukrainian "atrocities" in Russian border regions, alongside false claims of Ukrainian retreats and military losses, and claims of mass Ukrainian surrender appeals. Expect continued and increased precision drone strikes on Ukrainian personnel, vehicles, and logistics. Expect continued Russian diplomatic rhetoric regarding missile deployments to put pressure on Western allies. Persistent Ukrainian UAV attacks on Moscow region will continue, leading to further Russian airport restrictions and public claims of interceptions, which Russia will leverage to justify further retaliation. Civilian casualties in Zaporizhzhia Oblast from Russian attacks are highly likely. Expect continued heavy shelling and FPV drone attacks on civilian areas in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Expect Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian UAV ground infrastructure. Expect continued high tempo of Russian ground assaults, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis.
  • Ground Pressure: Continued high-intensity tactical ground engagements, particularly on the Donetsk (Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka, Stupochky) and Sumy axes.
  • Naval Status: Ukrainian Navy will continue monitoring Black and Azov Seas.
  • Decision Point (UKR): Prioritize air defense assets to protect key urban centers and critical infrastructure, especially in anticipation of the forecasted "revenge strike." Immediately counter Russian disinformation on body exchanges, POW testimonies, Western internal politics, and new claims of Ukrainian military appeals for surrender. Proactively counter Russian false flag narratives. Immediately verify claimed Russian proximity to Konstantinovka and prepare appropriate defensive response or refutation. Enhance local AD and EW capabilities against persistent multi-UAV threats. Implement immediate countermeasures and enhanced force protection against precision tactical drone strikes. Formulate a response to Russian diplomatic statements regarding missile deployments. Monitor the impact of UAV attacks on Moscow region and be prepared for potential shifts in Russian retaliatory targets or intensity. Assess the impact of Russian shelling and FPV drone attacks on civilian populations in Nikopol, Marhanets, and Prymorske, and deploy additional aid/support. Verify Russian claims of destroying UAV control points and adapt drone operations accordingly. Allocate reserves to defend against sustained Russian assaults on Pokrovsk axis. Enhance counter-drone and ISR capabilities in Kherson Oblast following the successful strike on a Russian UAV C2 point.

• Next 72 Hours (Medium-Term):

  • Decision Point (UKR): Evaluate the full impact of Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian logistics/production and prepare for potential severe retaliatory strikes. Re-evaluate and adapt ground force deployments on the Sumy axis. Expedite high-level diplomatic engagement regarding AD systems. Monitor and respond to escalating Russian disinformation campaigns targeting Western unity and Ukrainian credibility, including the new emphasis on "Ukrainian surrender" narratives and Russian claims of tactical advances. Initiate contingency planning for potential chemical or biological contamination scenarios. Re-assess defensive lines in Southern Donetsk and Konstantinovka based on verified Russian gains or false claims. Conduct a comprehensive review of anti-drone TTPs and equipment needs for ground forces, prioritizing rapid procurement and deployment. Assess the implications of Ryabkov's statements on strategic stability and missile proliferation for Ukraine's defense posture and diplomatic efforts. Assess the broader impact of persistent Ukrainian deep strikes into Russia (e.g., Moscow region) on Russian military decision-making and public sentiment. Analyze Russian milblogger sentiment to gauge broader internal shifts in Russian public perception of the war. Evaluate new patterns of Russian shelling/FPV drone use on civilian targets and adapt local defenses. Review the implications of the hypothetical General Staff map for long-term strategic planning and resource allocation, particularly concerning the potential for Russian strategic breakthroughs on key axes. Coordinate with international partners regarding the projected Russian "revenge strike" and ensure appropriate support and messaging.

• Next 1 Week (Near-Term Strategic):

  • Decision Point (UKR): Evaluate the overall effectiveness of Ukrainian deep strike campaign on Russian military-industrial complex and logistics. Continue to optimize air defense deployments. Intensify intelligence collection on Russian strategic aviation, air defense assets, potential dispersal efforts, and maritime special operations. Prioritize resources for the Sumy axis if Russian pressure continues, potentially initiating pre-emptive civilian evacuation planning. Reinforce maritime security measures in the Black Sea and Azov Sea. Conduct a comprehensive review of all critical Ukrainian industrial facilities, particularly chemical plants, for vulnerability assessment and hardening measures against potential Russian retaliatory strikes. Develop long-term strategies to counter Russian information warfare, including a robust response to narratives aimed at undermining military morale through surrender claims. Conduct a strategic review of defensive lines in Southern Donetsk and Konstantinovka, considering potential further Russian advances. Develop and implement a comprehensive, long-term strategy for countering Russian pervasive tactical drone threats, including layered defenses, training, and technological innovation. Prepare for potential shifts in the international arms control landscape and their impact on Ukraine's long-term security. Assess how the continued high-frequency UAV attacks on Russian territory influence Russian strategic calculations and their willingness to escalate. Develop specific countermeasures against Russian attempts to target Ukrainian UAV control infrastructure. Continue to monitor and respond to evolving Russian internal propaganda strategies. Conduct comprehensive wargaming and strategic planning based on the scenarios presented in the hypothetical General Staff map, particularly for the high-risk axes (Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, Orikhiv, Sumy), to prepare for potential major Russian offensives aimed at significant territorial gains.

---

6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize and Augment Air Defense for Eastern, Southern, Central, Western, and Northern Urban Centers, with Enhanced First Responder Protection and Adapting to New UAV/Missile Ingress Routes, While Assessing and Mitigating AD Losses, and Preparing for Major Retaliatory Strikes (Immediate & Urgent):

   • Action: Immediately re-prioritize and reinforce layered air defense systems (including mobile fire groups with MANPADS for KAB and drone defense) to protect Kharkiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv (specifically Mykolaiv city and Konstantinivka), Odesa, Dnipro (specifically Synelnykivskyi Raion, Nikopol, Marhanets community), Kryvyi Rih, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Zaporizhzhia Oblast (including Stepnohirsk community, Vasylivskyi Raion, Prymorske village), from continued KAB and missile/UAV attacks, MLRS, and heavy artillery fire. Given the Reuters prediction of a "revenge strike," prepare for a high-intensity, multi-wave aerial assault targeting critical infrastructure and population centers across Ukraine. This includes pre-positioning AD assets, readying reserves of interceptors, and activating all early warning systems. Implement enhanced force protection measures for all emergency services personnel. Expedite diplomatic efforts for the acquisition of additional advanced AD systems and secure urgent resupply of interceptor munitions. Allocate AD assets to counter new UAV threat vectors. Analyze new western/northwestern-bound UAV ingress routes and new missile trajectories to pre-position AD assets and optimize interception tactics. Prioritize defense of Vinnytsia city, Kyiv, and Zhytomyr against the direct UAV threat. Monitor tactical aviation activity in the Eastern and Southeastern directions. Immediately verify the claimed destruction of the P-18 radar in Sumy Oblast and rapidly assess any resulting gaps in air situational awareness. Account for new UAV and missile threats in Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts, and develop specific tactics and deploy additional short-range AD systems (e.g., mobile fire groups with MANPADS, anti-drone guns) to counter multiple incoming UAVs in areas like Konstantinivka, Mykolaiv Oblast. Monitor Russian AD responses to Ukrainian deep strikes into Russia (e.g., Moscow region) to identify areas of vulnerability and assess the impact of Ukrainian operations on Russian civilian infrastructure and daily life. For Nikopol, Marhanets, and Prymorske, prioritize local, mobile anti-drone systems (e.g., electronic warfare jammers, anti-drone guns, heavy machine guns) and hardened shelters.
   • Justification: Russian forces are deliberately escalating attacks on civilian areas and opening new attack vectors to inflict casualties and psychological impact. The persistent KAB strikes, ongoing UAV threats, missile activity, MLRS, and heavy artillery underscore the urgency and breadth of the threat. The injury of SES workers and new civilian casualty in Vasylivskyi Raion and Prymorske highlights a direct targeting of first responders and civilians. The Russian claim of destroying a P-18 radar indicates an active Russian effort to suppress Ukrainian AD. New UAV activity and missile launches in Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts demonstrate a further broadening of Russian aerial threats. The warning of aviation munition use in Synelnykivskyi Raion, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and the simultaneous multi-UAV threat on Mykolaiv (specifically Konstantinivka) indicate a continued and evolving Russian aerial threat pattern. The persistent Ukrainian UAV attacks on Moscow region, leading to repeated airport closures and multiple interceptions, confirm the effectiveness of Ukrainian deep strike operations in disrupting Russian civilian and military operations. This, in turn, may provoke further Russian retaliatory strikes. The confirmed MLRS, heavy artillery, and FPV drone attacks on Nikopol and Marhanets demonstrate a consistent, multi-faceted threat requiring localized, adaptable defenses. The sustained civilian casualties in Kyiv from the June 6th attack, coupled with Reuters' report that a "serious reaction" from Putin for "Operation Pavutina" has not yet occurred, strongly indicate a major retaliatory strike is imminent.
   • Intelligence Gap: Real-time air defense munition expenditure rates in affected areas and current inventory levels for key systems; full extent of Russian UAV reconnaissance and strike capabilities. Russian intent and capability for deliberate targeting of first responders. Specific objectives of new UAV ingress routes and missile targeting. Full analysis of Russian tactical aviation activity and KAB targeting priorities. Independent BDA on the claimed P-18 radar destruction and its impact. Precise flight paths, launch locations, and targets of new UAVs and missiles in Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts. Precise type of aviation munition in Synelnykivskyi Raion. Precise flight paths and intended targets of the multiple UAVs inbound to Mykolaiv and Konstantinivka. Precise BDA on KAB strike in Stepnohirsk and Vasylivskyi Raion. Full analysis of Russian AD response times and effectiveness to UAVs over Moscow region, and the specific impact on Russian air traffic and civilian life. Specific caliber and type of heavy artillery used in Nikopol/Marhanets; exact impact locations of MLRS; specific types of FPV drones used in these attacks; independent BDA on damage in Prymorske village. Specific intelligence on the timing, scale, and primary targets of the anticipated Russian "revenge strike."
   • Collection Requirement: Automated tracking of AD engagements and munition usage, updated imagery of damaged civilian sites for munition analysis, SIGINT/HUMINT on AD system readiness, drone flight path analysis. HUMINT/OSINT on Russian TTPs regarding first responder targeting. IMINT/SIGINT on UAV launch locations and operational patterns. SIGINT on missile launch locations and targets. SIGINT/IMINT of UAV trajectories to identify likely launch areas and staging points. SIGINT/IMINT on Russian tactical aviation movements and KAB targets. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on the location of the claimed P-18 strike. IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on KAB strike locations and damage. SIGINT/IMINT/OSINT on UAV flight paths and missile trajectories. Real-time tracking and SIGINT of UAVs entering Mykolaiv Oblast. Full analysis of Russian AD response times and effectiveness to UAVs over Moscow region, and the specific impact on Russian air traffic and civilian life. Detailed IMINT/OSINT/HUMINT on damage in Nikopol, Marhanets, and Prymorske for BDA and munition analysis. SIGINT/HUMINT on Russian artillery and FPV drone units targeting these areas. Prioritize ISR (SIGINT, IMINT) on Russian strategic bomber bases, missile launch areas, and large-scale UAV staging sites for indicators of imminent mass launch preparations. HUMINT on Russian strategic decision-making regarding retaliation.

2. Sustain and Exploit Deep Strike Successes, Prepare for Retaliation and Enhanced Russian Defenses, Targeting Chemical/Industrial Nodes Critical to Ammunition Production, While Assessing Russian Internal Security Adaptations and Countering Russian UAV C2 (Urgent):

   • Action: Conduct rapid, detailed BDA on the destroyed Iskander launchers, the logistics train, the Tu-22M3 bomber, and the "Azot" chemical plant in Novomoskovsk, Tula Oblast to confirm operational impact. Publicize these successes widely. Simultaneously, prepare for heightened Russian retaliatory strikes across Ukraine, particularly on strategic infrastructure, as predicted by Reuters. Disperse high-value assets and reinforce their defenses. Continue to assess targets for further deep strikes on Russian logistics and military-industrial complex, prioritizing industrial nodes with confirmed or high-probability links to military production, especially those providing raw materials or components for ammunition. Integrate FPV drone operations more widely for precision strikes on personnel and high-value equipment. Leverage SOF for continued cross-border raids against high-value Russian personnel and forward operating bases. Develop and deploy countermeasures to Russian new warning systems (e.g., in Sevastopol) and airfield restrictions (e.g., Kaluga, Vnukovo, Domodedovo), assessing their impact on Ukrainian deep strike TTPs. Analyze the TASS report on the "Voskresensky Plant 'Mashinostroitel'" and new FPV drone footage from Colonelcassad and TASS/MoD drone video to identify typical Russian FPV targets and improve Ukrainian countermeasures. Assess the effectiveness of Russian air defense in Kaluga Oblast against the 7 downed UAVs. Monitor reports on the eliminated fire at the Pushkino fuel/lubricants warehouse to determine the effectiveness of the initial Ukrainian strike and the speed of Russian damage control and recovery. Analyze the repeated successful UAV attacks on Moscow region and subsequent airport closures as a key deep strike impact, and seek opportunities to replicate or escalate this disruption. Monitor the lifting of "yellow level" alerts in Lipetsk and Vnukovo airport restrictions to understand the speed of Russian recovery and their internal threat assessment. Analyze the effectiveness of the recent Ukrainian air strike on a Russian UAV control point in Kherson Oblast and seek to replicate such strikes against similar Russian C2 nodes.
   • Justification: Ukrainian deep strikes are a significant strategic success but will provoke severe retaliation. The destruction of a logistics train highlights a key vulnerability. Russian attempts to adapt to drone threats and deep strikes (new warning systems, airport restrictions) must be actively countered. The persistent strike on a chemical industrial plant is a critical new category of target. The successful extinguishing of the fire in Pushkino and interceptions in Kaluga indicate Russia's efforts to mitigate deep strike effects. The new FPV drone video from Colonelcassad and TASS/MoD drone video provide insight into Russian tactical operations. The repeated successful UAV attacks on Moscow, leading to airport closures, directly impact Russian civilian life and critical infrastructure, demonstrating Ukraine's capability to bring the war to Russian territory. Reuters' prediction highlights the continued threat of significant retaliation. The lifting of alerts/restrictions indicates Russian adaptive defense and damage control. The successful strike on the Russian UAV C2 in Kherson demonstrates a critical capability to degrade Russian drone operations.
   • Intelligence Gap: Full BDA and long-term operational impact on Russian ballistic missile capabilities, Southern logistics, and strategic aviation. Specific details on the GRU personnel targeted in the SOF raid. Effectiveness of Russian counter-drone adaptations. Full impact of Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian air force operations. Full implications of new Sevastopol warning systems on Ukrainian maritime drone operations. Detailed analysis of Russian chemical industrial production facilities. Nature of the dispute with "Mashinostroitel". Full analysis of target in Colonelcassad's FPV video and TASS/MoD video. Specific type and capabilities of UAVs downed over Kaluga. Detailed BDA of the Pushkino strike. Specific BDA on Moscow region UAV strikes and the extent of their impact on airports and air traffic; the specific types of UAVs used in these attacks. Detailed analysis of Russian internal security response protocols following UAV incidents (e.g., how quickly are airport restrictions lifted, what criteria are used for "yellow level" alerts). Full BDA on the targeted Russian UAV control point in Kherson and identification of its operational impact on Russian drone activities in the area.
   • Collection Requirement: High-resolution satellite imagery of Bryansk/Kursk missile sites, Southern logistics hubs, Russian airfields (especially Engels, Belaya, Dyagilevo, Kaluga, Vnukovo, Domodedovo), and other military-industrial targets, including Novomoskovsk's "Azot" plant. Monitoring Russian strategic aviation movements. HUMINT/SIGINT on Russian GRU force composition. IMINT/OSINT on Russian vehicle adaptations. SIGINT/OSINT on new Russian warning systems. Targeted intelligence on Russian chemical industrial production. OSINT/HUMINT on the "Voskresensky Plant 'Mashinostroitel'" dispute. IMINT/OSINT of the target from Colonelcassad's FPV video and TASS/MoD video. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on UAV characteristics downed in Kaluga. SIGINT/IMINT of the Pushkino fuel/lubricants warehouse. Real-time IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on Moscow region airports (Vnukovo, Domodedovo) during and after UAV incidents for BDA and operational impact assessment; technical analysis of recovered UAV debris from Moscow attacks. OSINT/HUMINT on Russian public announcements and official statements regarding security alerts and airport operations, especially regarding the timing and content of their lifting. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on the Kherson UAV control point strike location to assess damage, and SIGINT/HUMINT on changes in Russian UAV operations in the Kherson sector.

3. Intensify Counter-Information Warfare on Humanitarian Issues, Western Divisions, and Russian Fabrications, Addressing Internal Russian Propaganda, and Debunking False Claims of Success, including New "Surrender" Narratives and Strategic Missile Rhetoric (Ongoing & Critical):

   • Action: Proactively and transparently communicate Ukraine's official stance and actions regarding prisoner and body exchanges, consistently refuting Russian disinformation. Immediately and publicly expose Russian fabrications, such as the "future-dated" body lists and the alleged POW video. Immediately and aggressively counter Russian claims of "relatives of Ukrainian military" appealing for surrender, providing context on forced recruitment, psychological pressure, or outright fabrication. Highlight Russian violations of international law to discredit their humanitarian claims. Publicly counter Russian narratives attempting to exploit Western internal politics and international relations. Formulate a clear and firm public response to Russian diplomatic statements (e.g., Ryabkov's comments on missile deployments), emphasizing Ukraine's sovereign right to defense. Leverage the opening of rehabilitation centers to showcase Ukrainian commitment. Monitor and analyze Russian internal propaganda related to veteran support, cultural events, and especially inflammatory narratives concerning migration/ethnic issues. Specifically analyze Russian military propaganda videos to identify key messaging and counter it. Crucially, actively counter the escalating Russian false flag narrative from Kursk Oblast. Immediately refute and expose false claims of Ukrainian retreat. Monitor and analyze Russian milblogger polls. Immediately and aggressively counter the new Russian narrative regarding civilian casualties at the Azot plant, emphasizing its legitimate military target status, and expose the "Goncharovka" civilian account as part of a broader false flag campaign. Immediately and publicly refute Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian military assets if independent BDA indicates otherwise. Publicly acknowledge successful AD interceptions of UAVs over Russia, framing them as defensive measures and highlighting Russian aggression. Immediately refute TASS claims of significant Russian expansion near Stupochky if found false. Immediately and publicly refute Russian claims of advances towards Konstantinovka if not verifiable by independent sources, or provide context if limited tactical gains are made. Proactively highlight civilian casualties and damage from Russian MLRS, heavy artillery, and FPV drone attacks in Nikopol, Marhanets, and Prymorske, linking them to indiscriminate targeting. Analyze and counter Russian milblogger content that attempts to internalize anxieties or justify aggression through narratives of "endurance" or "sacrifice." Publicly verify or refute Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian UAV control points. Proactively address the implications of the hypothetical General Staff "Map of Combat Operations" dated 07.06.2025 by framing it as a potential long-term scenario for which Ukraine is preparing, or as a tool for strategic planning, rather than a definitive forecast of future defeat. Emphasize Ukrainian resilience and continued resistance despite such hypothetical challenges. Use the civilian casualty figures from Kyiv (18 injured from June 6th attack) to highlight Russian brutality.
   • Justification: Russia is leveraging highly sensitive humanitarian issues, internal Western political dynamics, and sensationalist narratives for information warfare, using increasingly blatant fabrications. Russian diplomatic statements are explicitly trying to set conditions for further escalation. Effective, consistent counter-narratives are critical. The proliferation of internal Russian propaganda, particularly the divisive narratives about "replacement of the Russian people," requires monitoring. The specific focus on medical care and claimed tactical successes/Ukrainian failures in Russian propaganda indicates a recognized vulnerability or area for morale boosting. The subtle use of polls in specific Ukrainian cities indicates an evolving, more nuanced Russian IO tactic. The rapid reporting of Azot casualties and the Goncharovka video clearly demonstrate Russia's intent to exploit any civilian impact for propaganda. Russian claims of destroying high-value Ukrainian military assets are designed to demoralize. Ukrainian deep strikes into Russia, including UAVs over Moscow, provide opportunities to demonstrate capability and shift narratives. The repeated successful interceptions of UAVs over Moscow, publicly reported by Russia, create an opportunity to highlight Ukraine's deep strike capabilities. The TASS report on Trump/Musk conflict and Finland PM's condemnation of Trump are clear attempts to sow discord. The KAB strike on Stepnohirsk and civilian injury in Vasylivskyi Raion offer Russia another opportunity to deflect blame. The new Russian claim of proximity to Konstantinovka is a direct IO attempt to undermine Ukrainian morale and requires immediate, factual counter-messaging. New reports of civilian casualties in Prymorske and sustained shelling in Nikopol/Marhanets underscore the indiscriminate nature of Russian attacks. The introspective milblogger posts indicate an evolving Russian IO approach that needs to be understood and potentially leveraged. Russian claims of destroying UAV C2 points are a direct attempt to undermine Ukrainian drone operations. The General Staff's hypothetical future map, if misinterpreted, could be demoralizing, necessitating careful framing. Civilian casualties in Kyiv provide strong evidence for Russian war crimes.
   • Intelligence Gap: Full scope of Russian information narratives targeting Ukrainian society and Western audiences. Identification of key Russian PSYOP themes. Understanding the intent and impact of highly divisive internal Russian propaganda. Effectiveness of Russian military propaganda. Full details on the alleged "occupation" in Russkoye Porechnoye, Kursk Oblast. Verification of Russian claims near Kamenka/Stroyevka. Detailed analysis of Russian milblogger polling data. Independent verification of Goncharovka incident. Impact and reach of Russian milblogger claims of P-18 radar destruction. Independent BDA on Konstantinovka FPV strike. Full analysis of Russian messaging related to AD interceptions over Moscow. Verification of TASS reporting on Trump/Musk. Independent BDA on claimed MaxxPro destruction. Independent BDA on Colonelcassad's new FPV video. Independent verification of TASS claims of Russian expansion near Stupochky. Full analysis of Russian messaging related to AD interceptions over Mykolaiv. Full BDA on targets in TASS/MoD drone video and Colonelcassad thermal footage. Impact of WSJ/Pentagon UFO story. Specific data supporting Russian claims of 3,500 appeals from Ukrainian military relatives. Impact of Ryabkov's statements on international diplomatic efforts. Independent verification of TASS claim of Russian forces being 6.5 km from Konstantinovka; impact of Colonelcassad's "necrophilia" posts on Ukrainian military recruitment; the specific reach and effectiveness of the "Normandie-Neman" unit narrative. Analysis of the underlying sentiment and potential strategic intent behind introspective Russian milblogger posts. Independent BDA on claimed UAV control point destruction. Analysis of the specific messaging intent and potential impact of the General Staff's hypothetical future map. Detailed demographic and psychological impact assessment of civilian casualties in Kyiv.
   • Collection Requirement: Comprehensive monitoring of Russian state media and milblogger channels. OSINT analysis of specific Russian PSYOP channels. Targeted OSINT/HUMINT on internal Russian social dynamics. Detailed content analysis of Russian military propaganda videos. Immediate OSINT/HUMINT/IMINT of Russkoye Porechnoye. Immediate IMINT/HUMINT of Kamenka/Stroyevka. Systematic collection and analysis of Russian milblogger polls. Immediate OSINT/HUMINT/IMINT of Goncharovka. OSINT monitoring of Russian milblogger channels for further claims of Ukrainian AD system destruction. IMINT/SIGINT/HUMINT for BDA on Konstantinovka FPV strike. OSINT monitoring of Russian state and milblogger media for messaging regarding UAV interceptions over Moscow. OSINT on TASS and Rolling Stone regarding Trump/Musk. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on claimed MaxxPro destruction. IMINT/OSINT of Colonelcassad's FPV video. IMINT/HUMINT/OSINT on Stupochky area. OSINT monitoring of local Mykolaiv channels. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT for BDA on TASS/MoD drone video targets and Colonelcassad thermal footage. Content analysis of Russian information channels for mention of the WSJ/Pentagon UFO story. SIGINT/HUMINT on Russian MFA communications. OSINT on Russian state media and milblogger channels for further claims of Ukrainian military appeals for surrender. IMINT/OSINT on the Konstantinovka axis to verify Russian claims of advance; OSINT on Colonelcassad's "necrophilia" posts to gauge their reach and engagement; OSINT on the TASS "Normandie-Neman" report to assess its amplification and target audience reaction. OSINT/HUMINT/IMINT on impact of shelling/FPV drones in Nikopol, Marhanets, and Prymorske. Detailed content analysis of the "НгП раZVедка" message and similar posts. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT to verify claims of UAV control point destruction. OSINT analysis of the General Staff's hypothetical map's reception both domestically and internationally. HUMINT/OSINT on the psychological impact of recent attacks on Kyiv's population.

4. Reinforce and Monitor Sumy and Donetsk Axes Defenses, Verify Russian Claims, and Account for Potential AD Degradation, while Adapting to New Precision Drone Threats and Countering Russian Ground Offensives (Urgent):

   • Action: Immediately reinforce personnel, fortifications, and anti-tank capabilities on the Sumy axis. Intensify ISR collection on Russian force composition, strength, and objectives. Advise civilian authorities on potential evacuation routes. Conduct aggressive counter-battery fire. Similarly, reinforce defenses and conduct ISR on the Konstantinovka, Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, Orikhiv, Novopavlivka, and Huliaipole axes. Prepare for potential increased KAB/UAV/missile strikes on Sumy Oblast. Immediately verify the Russian claim of a Krab SPG destruction and the FPV strike on a UAV C2/dugout in Konstantinovka. Analyze the "ZONA SVO" video claiming Ukrainian assault deaths. Allocate additional AD/EW assets to these fronts where feasible. If the P-18 radar destruction in Sumy Oblast is confirmed, adjust ground force defensive planning. Immediately verify TASS claims of Ukrainian retreat. Improve force protection measures for drone crews. Immediately verify the Russian MoD claim of a MaxxPro loss. Immediately verify TASS claims of significant Russian expansion near Stupochky. Implement enhanced camouflage, dispersal, and active/passive counter-drone measures for all personnel and vehicles operating in frontline areas. Update training protocols for personnel on drone threat identification. Monitor for any shifts in Russian ground force deployments or tactics in Zaporizhzhia Oblast following the KAB strike on Stepnohirsk and the attack on Vasylivskyi Raion. Immediately verify TASS claims of Russian forces being 6.5 km from Konstantinovka via IMINT/HUMINT/OSINT and adjust defensive planning accordingly. Prioritize the development and deployment of countermeasures against Russian capabilities to target Ukrainian UAV control points and operators, based on the "Voin DV" claim. Analyze the General Staff's hypothetical future map, particularly the depictions of significant Russian territorial gains and advances towards key Ukrainian cities (Kramatorsk, Orikhiv, Kupiansk), to identify potential future Russian strategic objectives and prepare layered defenses accordingly.
   • Justification: Russian claims of an "expanding buffer zone" and confirmed advances indicate a serious intent to press the Sumy axis. The continued focus on the Novopavlivka and Pokrovsk directions, and new claims on Konstantinovka and Stupochky, also indicate sustained pressure on ground forces. The SOF raid highlights active Russian presence. Russian claims of KAB strikes and new UAV activity further indicate their focus. The claimed Krab SPG destruction and FPV strike on a UAV C2 node highlight Russian tactical adaptation. The claimed FPV strike on "Baba-Yaga" and drone crews demonstrates a serious threat to Ukrainian drone assets and personnel. Russian propaganda videos purporting to show Ukrainian casualties are designed to demoralize. The continuing KAB launches underscore the aerial component of Russian ground pressure. The claimed P-18 radar destruction, if confirmed, represents a direct attempt to degrade Ukrainian defenses. TASS claims of Ukrainian retreat require immediate military response. The claimed MaxxPro loss, if verified, represents a tangible loss. TASS claims of expanding control near Stupochky represent a potential tactical setback. New Russian drone videos confirm a highly effective threat from precision tactical drones. The KAB strike on Stepnohirsk and the attack on Vasylivskyi Raion, while aerial, could be a precursor to increased ground activity in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The specific claim of proximity to Konstantinovka indicates a renewed or intensified focus on this axis. The Russian claim of destroying a UAV control point indicates their active efforts to disrupt Ukrainian drone operations, necessitating countermeasures. The General Staff's hypothetical map, while not a prediction, provides a worst-case scenario framework that should inform long-term defensive preparations and resource allocation, particularly for key axes like Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, and Orikhiv, where significant Russian pressure is already evident.
   • Intelligence Gap: Precise composition and strength of Russian forces on Sumy and Konstantinovka/Southern Donetsk/Pokrovsk/Orikhiv axes. Independent BDA on Russian claim of Krab SPG destruction and FPV strike on UAV C2. Full details on the incident depicted in the "ZONA SVO" video. Detailed assessment of Russian KAB targeting accuracy. Operational impact of potential P-18 radar loss. Independent verification of TASS claim of Ukrainian retreat. Full BDA on Konstantinovka FPV strike. Independent BDA on claimed MaxxPro destruction. Independent BDA on TASS claims of Russian expansion near Stupochky. Full BDA on targets in TASS/MoD drone video and Colonelcassad thermal footage. Assessment of Russian drone capabilities for night operations. Any changes in Russian ground force massing or movement in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Independent verification of TASS claim regarding proximity to Konstantinovka; specific Russian units and their strength operating on the Konstantinovka axis. Independent BDA on the claimed UAV control point destruction; identification of Russian TTPs for targeting UAV ground infrastructure. Detailed analysis of Russian strategic objectives and unit composition on all axes depicted in the hypothetical General Staff map, particularly for areas indicating major Russian advances (e.g., Kramatorsk, Orikhiv, Kupiansk).
   • Collection Requirement: HUMINT from local sources, SIGINT on Russian communications, IMINT for troop movements and fortifications, cross-referencing Russian map claims with ground truth. Immediate IMINT of Vasyutinskoye area for BDA, SIGINT on Russian drone activity. Detailed frame-by-frame analysis of "ZONA SVO" video. IMINT/SIGINT of Konstantinovka to verify the FPV strike and BDA. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on KAB strike locations. IMINT/SIGINT on Russian reconnaissance and strike activity in Sumy Oblast. IMINT/HUMINT of Kamenka/Stroyevka area. IMINT/SIGINT on Konstantinovka to verify the FPV strike. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on claimed MaxxPro destruction. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on Stupochky area. IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT for BDA on TASS/MoD drone video targets and Colonelcassad thermal footage. IMINT/SIGINT on Konstantinovka axis for Russian force disposition, movements, and claimed advances. HUMINT from local sources near Konstantinovka. IMINT/SIGINT on Russian counter-drone operations and targeting of Ukrainian UAV ground assets, including analysis of the "Voin DV" video. Aggressive ISR (IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT) on all axes, especially Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, Orikhiv, and Sumy, to monitor Russian force buildup, logistics, and any signs of preparatory movements for large-scale offensives. Cross-reference actual Russian activities with the hypothetical scenarios presented in the General Staff map to refine intelligence assessments.

5. Enhance Maritime Security in the Black Sea and Crimea, and Bolster Air Defense in Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kherson, while maintaining vigilance on Russian naval operations (New & Critical):

   • Action: Increase Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) in areas with critical maritime infrastructure (ports, offshore platforms, key shipping lanes) in the Black Sea, particularly off Odesa, Mykolaiv, and the Ukrainian coast, and intensify ISR on Sevastopol and other Crimean naval bases. Develop and deploy enhanced physical and electronic security measures for offshore platforms, subsea cables, and pipelines. Share intelligence on Russian maritime special operations (e.g., "Espanola" unit's TTPs, "Два майора" claims) with relevant maritime security agencies and allied nations. Prioritize monitoring of specific offshore platforms and naval assets for signs of Russian activity. Analyze the new Sevastopol warning signals to understand their operational triggers. Increase AD readiness in Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kherson for incoming missile and UAV threats, and integrate maritime and air defense efforts to counter coordinated attacks. Maintain continuous monitoring of Russian naval vessels, including missile carriers, in both the Black and Azov Seas, despite their current reported absence. Analyze the Ukrainian Navy's situation report to identify any emerging threats or shifts in Russian naval posture. Monitor Kryvyi Rih and other central Ukrainian urban centers for shifts in Russian targeting, given the current "controlled situation" reported by local authorities. Review the "Prydniprovskyi Direction" on the General Staff's hypothetical map, which depicts Russian control of the eastern bank of the Dnipro River and ongoing shelling of the right bank, to understand potential long-term Russian objectives and prepare defenses along the riverine frontier.
   • Justification: The "Espanola" unit's video and "Два майора" claims demonstrate a sophisticated Russian capability for maritime sabotage. The introduction of new, specific warning signals in Sevastopol indicates heightened Russian concern. The confirmed missile threat towards Odesa, and new UAV and missile activity in Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts, highlight the continued aerial threat to these vital port cities and regions. The continued multi-UAV threat on Mykolaiv underscores the need for robust and adaptable local air defense. The Ukrainian Navy's report provides valuable real-time insight into the maritime domain. The calm situation reported in Kryvyi Rih, while positive, means Russian forces may shift their focus there if other areas become too heavily defended. The hypothetical map's depiction of a stable Russian presence on the eastern Dnipro bank and continued fire on the western bank suggests a persistent riverine threat that needs to be factored into long-term defensive planning.
   • Intelligence Gap: Full understanding of "Espanola" unit's capabilities. Precise location and function of the "infrastructure" claimed destroyed by "Два майора." Full details on the triggers and operational procedures for the new Sevastopol warning signals. Precise launch location and intended target of missile towards Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Voznesensk, and UAV activity in Mykolaiv and Kherson. Precise flight paths and intended targets of the multiple UAVs inbound to Mykolaiv and Konstantinivka. Reason for current absence of Russian missile carriers. Any specific intelligence from the Ukrainian Navy's report indicating new Russian naval movements or capabilities. Any intelligence indicating changes in Russian targeting priorities for central Ukrainian cities like Kryvyi Rih. Specific Russian units deployed along the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast, and their capabilities for offensive river crossing operations or sustained indirect fire.
   • Collection Requirement: IMINT/OSINT on Russian naval special forces units, SIGINT on their communications, HUMINT from Black Sea region. Commercial satellite imagery of offshore infrastructure. SIGINT/OSINT on Sevastopol air defense and naval activities. SIGINT on missile launch origin and trajectory analysis. SIGINT/IMINT on UAV launch locations and flight paths. Real-time tracking and SIGINT of UAVs entering Mykolaiv Oblast. Continuous IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT on Russian naval movements. Detailed analysis of the Ukrainian Navy's situation report for any anomalies or new data points. OSINT/HUMINT on local sentiment and potential Russian reconnaissance/targeting activities in Kryvyi Rih and surrounding areas. IMINT/SIGINT/HUMINT on Russian forces, fortifications, and equipment deployed along the eastern bank of the Dnipro in Kherson, particularly for signs of bridging equipment or preparations for amphibious operations.

---

END REPORT