Archived operational intelligence briefing
OPSEC CLASSIFICATION: NATO SECRET // RELEASABLE TO UKR FORCES
INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) TIME OF REPORT: 08 JUN 25 / 00:45 ZULU REPORTING PERIOD: 08 JUN 25 / 00:15 ZULU - 08 JUN 25 / 00:45 ZULU PREPARED BY: Senior Military Intelligence Analyst, Eastern European Warfare Desk
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:
AOR Update: Kharkiv Oblast, Volyn Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Black Sea, Azov Sea, Sumy Oblast, Russian Federation (Kursk, Bryansk, Kaluga, Smolensk Oblasts, Moscow Region including Dubna, Podmoskovye, Moscow city, Pushkino, Irkutsk region - Belaya airfield; Tambov Oblast - Michurinsk; Ryazan Oblast - Dyagilevo; Belgorod Oblast - Prokhorovka-Belenikhino, Zhuravlevka, Pushkarozhadinsky, Azov - Rostov Oblast, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast - Kstovo, Sevastopol, Lipetsk Oblast, Orel Oblast, Tula Oblast - Novomoskovsk, Azot chemical plant), Southern Donetsk Direction, Konstantinovka direction, Siversk direction, Odesa Oblast, Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo - Alekseevka, Chasov Yar, Kramatorsk axis, Toretsk axis, Novopavlivka axis, Krasnoarmeysk-Novosergeevka, Maryinka, Dalnee, Sokol, Lipovoe, Bakhmut, Progress, Kleshcheevka, Vasyutinskoye, south Donetsk region), Kupyansk axis, Kherson axis, Ternopil Oblast, Kyiv, Krasnoarmeysk direction, Lviv Oblast, Mykolaiv Oblast, Poltava Oblast, Kirovohrad Oblast, Vinnytsia Oblast, Cherkasy Oblast, Zhytomyr Oblast, Kyiv Oblast.
Key Terrain (Sumy Oblast, UKR - New Development): Russian milblogger "Colonelcassad" publishes video purporting to show the destruction of a Ukrainian P-18 radar system in Sumy Oblast. The video displays a clear targeting reticle, explosion, and post-impact smoke. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - as an information artifact for analysis; MEDIUM - for veracity of Russian claim without independent BDA).
Key Terrain (Novomoskovsk, Tula Oblast, RF - Updated BDA): Governor of Tula Oblast confirms two (2) casualties from the UAV attack on the "Azot" plant, both civilian, with their lives not in danger. This updates previous reporting of fire extinguished and adds to the previous confirmation of the strike by RBC-Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - consistent reporting from multiple sources)
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations:
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:
COA 1 (MLCOA - Sustained and Escalated Retaliatory Saturation Attacks on Urban Centers and Critical Infrastructure, Coupled with Amplified Disinformation on Humanitarian Issues and Western Divisions, with Direct Targeting of First Responders, and New Attack Vectors): Russia will continue and likely intensify KAB and missile/UAV strikes on Ukrainian urban centers, particularly Kharkiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia, Kyiv, and Zhytomyr, with an increased focus on civilian targets (kindergarten, educational buildings) to maximize terror and drain Ukrainian emergency resources. There will be an increased likelihood of deliberate targeting of first responders or "double-tap" strikes to impede rescue efforts and maximize casualties. New groups of strike UAVs moving westward into Kharkiv, Sumy, Vinnytsia, Kyiv, and Zhytomyr Oblasts indicate new attack vectors or a re-focusing of efforts to overwhelm specific AD sectors, which will persist and likely broaden. Concurrently, Russia will continue a persistent and aggressive information campaign, particularly regarding body/POW exchanges (using fabricated evidence), blaming Ukraine for delays, and exploiting any perceived Western failures or internal divisions (e.g., US politics, Polish EU accession, Musk/Bessent narratives). The continued targeting of the Azot chemical plant may lead to Russian retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian chemical or industrial facilities, or an increase in strikes with a focus on creating secondary hazards. Russia will also escalate false flag operations regarding "Ukrainian atrocities" in Russian border regions to justify retaliatory actions, and continue to propagate false claims of Ukrainian retreats. *New information (TASS/ASTRA confirming 2 casualties at Azot, Colonelcassad presenting civilian account from Goncharovka, Kursk Oblast, and RBC-Ukraine confirming the Azot strike) strengthens this COA by demonstrating immediate Russian efforts to frame Ukraine as attacking civilians and escalate the narrative of "atrocities" in border regions. The alleged P-18 radar destruction by Colonelcassad indicates a potential Russian effort to clear air defense corridors for intensified air operations supporting this COA.
COA 2 (Ground Offensive Support with Targeted Artillery/MLRS and Drone Strikes, while Enhancing Counter-Deep Strike Internal Security and Expanding Maritime Hybrid Operations, with Enhanced Crimean Defenses, and Increased Internal Propaganda focus alongside Divisive Narratives, with a renewed focus on medic support and portrayal of Ukrainian failures): Russian forces will continue to press ground offensives on existing axes (e.g., Donetsk, Novopavlivka, Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka, Sumy), supporting them with targeted artillery, MLRS, and FPV drone strikes against Ukrainian positions and C2 nodes (e.g., Konstantinovka FPV strike). The alleged destruction of a Ukrainian P-18 radar in Sumy Oblast, if verified, indicates an ongoing effort to suppress Ukrainian air defenses in key ground offensive sectors, facilitating deeper tactical aviation support for ground forces. They will likely intensify internal security efforts to prevent and detect further Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian territory, including targeting family members of alleged participants, and maintaining and publicizing air defense alerts/interceptions in border regions (Kursk, Orel). Additionally, Russia will likely attempt to conduct further hybrid maritime operations in the Black Sea. New, specific warning systems will be implemented and publicized in Crimea (Sevastopol). Russian forces will continue to adapt ground vehicles with "cope cages" and similar improvised defenses against drones. Russia will increase internal propaganda efforts focusing on state support for veterans and promoting national unity through cultural events (e.g., Shaman concert), while simultaneously allowing the amplification of divisive internal narratives (e.g., migration/ethnic issues) through controlled channels to serve specific political objectives. Propaganda will also highlight improvements in battlefield medical care and troop welfare to bolster morale and recruitment, and demonstrate military effectiveness (e.g., claimed Krab SPG destruction, FPV strike on UAV C2, now claimed P-18 destruction) while portraying Ukrainian military failures and casualties (e.g., "ZONA SVO" video, TASS claims of Ukrainian retreat). *New information (Colonelcassad video of civilian injuries in Goncharovka, Kursk Oblast) strengthens this COA by demonstrating continued Russian efforts to portray Ukrainian military failures and casualties, and justify actions against border regions. The claimed P-18 radar destruction directly supports this COA by indicating Russia's efforts to achieve air superiority and support ground advances in the Sumy direction.
2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:
2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:
2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):
MLCOA 1: Sustained and Escalated Retaliatory Saturation Attacks on Urban Centers and Critical Infrastructure, Coupled with Amplified Disinformation on Humanitarian Issues and Western Divisions, with Direct Targeting of First Responders, and New Attack Vectors (INCLUDING CHEMICAL HAZARDS AND FALSE FLAG ATROCITIES), and Targeted Degradation of Ukrainian AD: Russia will continue and likely intensify KAB and missile/UAV strikes on Ukrainian urban centers, particularly Kharkiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia, Kyiv, and Zhytomyr, with an increased focus on civilian targets (kindergarten, educational buildings) to maximize terror and drain Ukrainian emergency resources. There will be an increased likelihood of deliberate targeting of first responders or "double-tap" strikes to impede rescue efforts and maximize casualties. New groups of strike UAVs moving westward into Kharkiv, Sumy, Vinnytsia, Kyiv, and Zhytomyr Oblasts indicate new attack vectors or a re-focusing of efforts to overwhelm specific AD sectors, which will persist and likely broaden in geographical scope. Concurrently, Russia will actively target and neutralize Ukrainian air defense assets (e.g., radars) to facilitate these air operations. Russia will continue a persistent and aggressive information campaign, particularly regarding body/POW exchanges (using fabricated evidence), blaming Ukraine for delays, and exploiting any perceived Western failures or internal divisions (e.g., US politics, Polish EU accession, Musk/Bessent narratives). The persistent strike on the Azot chemical plant will lead to Russian retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian chemical or industrial facilities, or an increase in strikes with a focus on creating secondary hazards. Furthermore, Russia will escalate the dissemination of false flag narratives regarding "Ukrainian atrocities" in Russian border regions (e.g., Russkoye Porechnoye, Kursk Oblast, now Goncharovka, Kursk Oblast) to justify its retaliatory actions and demonize Ukraine globally, and continue to propagate false claims of Ukrainian military retreats (e.g., Kamenka/Stroyevka).
MLCOA 2: Ground Offensive Support with Targeted Artillery/MLRS and Drone Strikes, while Enhancing Counter-Deep Strike Internal Security and Expanding Maritime Hybrid Operations, with Enhanced Crimean Defenses, and Increased Internal Propaganda focus alongside Divisive Narratives, with a renewed focus on medic support and portrayal of Ukrainian failures and AD degradation: Russian forces will continue to press ground offensives on existing axes (e.g., Donetsk, Novopavlivka, Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka, Sumy), supporting them with targeted artillery, MLRS, and FPV drone strikes against Ukrainian positions and C2 nodes (e.g., Konstantinovka FPV strike). Russia will actively seek to degrade Ukrainian air defense and early warning capabilities in support of these ground operations, as indicated by the claimed P-18 radar destruction. They will likely intensify internal security efforts to prevent and detect further Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian territory, including targeting family members of alleged participants, and maintaining and publicizing air defense alerts/interceptions in border regions (Kursk, Orel). Additionally, Russia will likely attempt to conduct further hybrid maritime operations in the Black Sea. New, specific warning systems will be implemented and publicized in Crimea (Sevastopol). Russian forces will continue to adapt ground vehicles with "cope cages" and similar improvised defenses against drones. Russia will increase internal propaganda efforts focusing on state support for veterans and promoting national unity through cultural events (e.g., Shaman concert), while simultaneously allowing the amplification of divisive internal narratives (e.g., migration/ethnic issues by Alex Parker Returns) through controlled channels to serve specific political objectives. Propaganda will also highlight improvements in battlefield medical care and troop welfare to bolster morale and recruitment, and demonstrate military effectiveness (e.g., claimed Krab SPG destruction, FPV strike on UAV C2, now claimed P-18 destruction) while portraying Ukrainian military failures and casualties (e.g., "ZONA SVO" video, TASS claims of Ukrainian retreat).
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):
MDCOA 1: Renewed Large-Scale Ballistic/Cruise Missile Campaign to Cripple Ukrainian AD and Energy/Logistics Infrastructure, with Increased Focus on Chemical/Industrial Targets, and Pre-strike AD Suppression: Russia, despite Iskander losses, will attempt to launch a renewed, multi-wave missile and drone campaign targeting Ukraine's critical national infrastructure (energy, logistics hubs, and remaining high-value military facilities), with a specific emphasis on overwhelming weakened Ukrainian air defenses. This aims to exhaust their munition reserves and cripple Ukraine's ability to sustain military operations and civilian life, especially ahead of the colder months. This MDCOA would exploit the publicly stated AD procurement challenges and the confirmed losses of Ukrainian AD munitions. The expansion of KAB attacks and UAV/missile routes (now to Kyiv/Zhytomyr) signals a probing for AD weaknesses. The persistent targeting of the Azot chemical plant in Tula Oblast, now confirmed as a source for explosives in artillery shells, may trigger a significant, high-volume missile retaliation aimed at Ukraine's critical infrastructure, potentially including targets with industrial chemical significance, aiming to create secondary hazards and disrupt Ukrainian defense production. Prior to or concurrent with these strikes, Russia may conduct widespread air defense suppression operations, as indicated by the claimed P-18 radar destruction, to improve the effectiveness of their missile and drone attacks. The confirmed civilian casualties at Azot (even if minor) may be used by Russia as further justification for a "proportionate" retaliatory strike on Ukrainian infrastructure, including those with chemical significance, increasing the likelihood of this MDCOA.
MDCOA 2: Attempted Strategic Breakthrough on Sumy Axis with Major Force Commitment and Massed Air Support (with Chemical Warfare consideration/False Flag Pretext), Enabled by Prior AD Suppression: Russia commits substantial additional reserves to the Sumy axis, initiating a rapid, decisive breakthrough aimed at encircling or seizing Sumy city. This would involve overwhelming combined arms force, massed KAB strikes to suppress Ukrainian defenses, and deep strikes to neutralize Ukrainian command and control and logistics in the region. This would be significantly facilitated by prior air defense suppression operations, such as the claimed destruction of the P-18 radar, to ensure Russian air superiority and unimpeded close air support. This would aim to open a new major operational front, fix a large portion of Ukrainian reserves, and create a significant humanitarian crisis, diverting resources from the Donbas. Given the recent persistent strike on the Azot chemical plant (a source for explosives), and Russia's past false flag attempts regarding chemical weapons, there is a low but non-zero risk of Russia preparing to conduct an operation with chemical munitions or a "dirty bomb" in the context of a strategic breakthrough, or blame Ukraine for such an event, potentially fabricating evidence. The recent Russian false flag propaganda concerning "Ukrainian occupation" and mass casualties in Kursk Oblast (now specifically Goncharovka) and claims of Ukrainian retreat near Kamenka/Stroyevka, provides a potential pretext for such an escalation or for justifying a disproportionate response.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:
Next 24-48 Hours (Short-Term):
Next 72 Hours (Medium-Term):
Next 1 Week (Near-Term Strategic):
Prioritize and Augment Air Defense for Eastern, Southern, Central, and now Western/Northern Urban Centers, with Enhanced First Responder Protection and Adapting to New UAV/Missile Ingress Routes, While Assessing and Mitigating AD Losses (Immediate & Urgent):
Sustain and Exploit Deep Strike Successes, Prepare for Retaliation and Enhanced Russian Defenses, Targeting Chemical/Industrial Nodes Critical to Ammunition Production (Urgent):
Intensify Counter-Information Warfare on Humanitarian Issues, Western Divisions, and Russian Fabrications, Addressing Internal Russian Propaganda, and Debunking False Claims of Success (Ongoing & Critical):
Reinforce and Monitor Sumy and Konstantinovka Axis Defenses, Verify Russian Claims, and Account for Potential AD Degradation (Urgent):
Enhance Maritime Security in the Black Sea and Crimea, and Bolster Air Defense in Odesa (New & Critical):
END REPORT
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