OPSEC CLASSIFICATION: NATO UNCLASSIFIED // FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY (FOUO)
INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)
TIME OF REPORT: 07 JUN 25 / 01:12 ZULU
REPORTING PERIOD: 07 JUN 25 / 00:41 ZULU - 07 JUN 25 / 01:12 ZULU
PREPARED BY: Senior Military Intelligence Analyst, Eastern European Warfare Desk
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:
- AOR: Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkiv city, Izium, Balakliia, Vasyscheve), Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro, Pavlohrad), Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Orikhiv).
- Key Terrain (Kharkiv): Kharkiv city remains under sustained, combined aerial attack. The repeated hits on residential buildings and civilian enterprises highlight the intent to inflict maximum civilian and infrastructural damage. Izium, Balakliia, and Vasyscheve are now targets of missile/ballistic threats, indicating a broadening of Russian deep strike efforts beyond the regional capital.
- Key Terrain (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia): Dnipro and Pavlohrad are under active missile threat. Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia) is a likely trajectory point, indicating continued Russian pressure on key logistical and industrial hubs in central and eastern Ukraine. These cities remain critical for Ukrainian logistics and defense.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations:
- Weather: No specific weather updates. Continued night operations by both sides suggest clear or suitable conditions for both UAV and missile deployment.
- Environmental Factors: Confirmed impacts in Kharkiv, including a multi-story residential building fire, indicate immediate humanitarian and emergency response challenges, exacerbated by the ongoing nature of the attacks.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:
- Ukrainian Forces (Air Defense):
- Kharkiv: Air defense engagements are ongoing against a "massive combined attack" involving "Shaheds," missiles, and possibly КАБs. Multiple impacts confirmed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia: Air defense forces are actively tracking multiple inbound missiles targeting Dnipro and Pavlohrad. "Minus" reported for one missile, suggesting successful interception or impact out of target area. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - based on informal sources, awaiting official confirmation).
- Russian Forces (Air):
- UAVs ("Shahed"): Continued saturation attacks on Kharkiv, with "more than ten Shaheds" impacting the city. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Missiles/Ballistics/КАБs: Significant escalation in missile usage. Multiple missiles (initially 2, then 3, then 4 reported by unofficial sources) targeting Dnipro and Pavlohrad via Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Ballistic missile threat on Izium/Balakliia/Vasyscheve. One "winged missile" (likely cruise missile) targeting Kharkiv. Unconfirmed reports of КАБs impacting Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for presence, MEDIUM for precise number/type pending official confirmation).
- Tactical Aviation: Active tactical aviation on the southern direction, likely launching missiles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Control Measures: Air Raid Sirens (ARS) active in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Likely active in Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to missile trajectories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:
- Capabilities:
- Aerial (UAV/Missile/Ballistic/КАБ): Russia demonstrates significant capability for combined, multi-vector aerial assaults, employing "Shahed" drones for saturation, and precision/ballistic missiles for high-value targets or terror. The reported use of "more than ten Shaheds" and multiple missiles on Kharkiv simultaneously indicates a sophisticated, coordinated strike capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Tactical Aviation: Russian tactical aviation is active, indicating continued ability to launch air-launched munitions from relatively safe standoff distances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Intentions:
- Aerial Strikes: To overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses through combined attacks, degrade critical infrastructure and industrial capacity (especially in Kharkiv and Dnipro regions), and inflict psychological pressure on the civilian population. The targeting of residential buildings in Kharkiv aligns with a terror strategy.
- Disruption: To cause widespread disruption to Ukrainian transportation, energy, and emergency services.
- Punitive/Retaliatory: The scale and coordination of this combined attack strongly suggest a retaliatory response to recent successful Ukrainian deep strikes within Russian territory.
- Courses of Action (COA):
- COA 1 (MLCOA - Combined Aerial Assaults): Continuation of combined drone and missile attacks, possibly escalating in intensity and geographic scope, specifically targeting urban centers, industrial sites, and energy infrastructure, with a particular focus on Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- COA 2 (MLCOA - Saturation Tactics): Employment of "Shahed" swarms to deplete Ukrainian air defense munitions, followed or accompanied by more precise missile or ballistic strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- COA 3 (MLCOA - Escalated Retaliation): Direct and immediate large-scale retaliation for any future Ukrainian deep strikes or successful frontline operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:
- Shift to Combined Attacks: The most significant adaptation is the clear shift from predominantly drone attacks to large-scale combined missile/drone/ballistic/КАБ assaults, specifically seen in Kharkiv. This significantly complicates Ukrainian air defense.
- Broader Missile Threat: The expansion of missile threats to include Izium, Balakliia, and Vasyscheve, beyond Kharkiv city, indicates an effort to disrupt regional logistics and command nodes.
- Persistent Targeting: The sustained pressure on Kharkiv and the re-emergence of serious missile threats to Dnipro and Pavlohrad demonstrate Russia's persistent focus on these strategic areas.
2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:
- The ability to launch multiple waves of drones, missiles, and potentially КАБs simultaneously across multiple axes indicates Russia maintains a significant, though not unlimited, supply of these munitions. The claim of "two Iskanders" confirms a high-value, limited-stock munition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:
- Russian C2 appears highly effective in coordinating complex, multi-type aerial attacks across multiple regions. This requires robust intelligence, targeting, and launch coordination capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:
- Air Defense: Ukrainian air defense forces are engaged in a high-intensity battle against a combined aerial threat. Their ability to track and, in some cases, intercept multiple missile types alongside drone swarms is critical. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Emergency Services: DSNS and other emergency services are likely already engaged in Kharkiv to manage fires and potential casualties from the confirmed impacts on civilian enterprises and residential buildings. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:
- Successes: Initial reports of a missile "minus" (likely interception or impact in a non-target area) indicate ongoing air defense effectiveness.
- Setbacks: Confirmed multiple drone impacts and likely missile/КАБ impacts in Kharkiv, including a multi-story residential building fire, represent significant setbacks, causing damage, casualties, and straining emergency response.
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:
- Air Defense Munitions: The current combined aerial assault will place extreme demands on Ukrainian air defense munition stockpiles for both drones and various missile types. This is a critical constraint.
- Emergency Services: The widespread nature of the attacks, particularly in Kharkiv, will further strain DSNS resources, which were already stretched after recent casualties.
- Air Defense Systems: The volume and diversity of incoming threats emphasize the urgent need for additional sophisticated air defense systems capable of intercepting both drones and advanced missiles.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:
- Russian Propaganda:
- TASS report on tourism between Russia and Israel is a clear attempt to project normalcy and international engagement amidst ongoing conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Russian milblogger "НгП раZVедка" immediately frames the missile strikes on Kharkiv as a "solution to the Ternopil issue" and as targeting "military criminals," directly linking them to recent Ukrainian actions and attempting to justify civilian targeting. This is a key narrative to monitor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Ukrainian Counter-Narratives: Ukrainian official channels (Kharkiv Mayor, Kharkiv ODA, AFU Air Force, Dnipropetrovsk ODA) are providing real-time updates on attacks and damage, emphasizing the targeting of civilian infrastructure and the intensity of Russian aggression.
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:
- Ukrainian Public: The escalation to combined drone and missile attacks, particularly on residential buildings in Kharkiv, will significantly heighten anxiety and stress. The need for constant vigilance and sheltering will severely impact daily life. Public morale will be tested by the sustained nature and lethality of these attacks.
- Russian Public: Russian state media continues to try and normalize the situation and project strength, while pro-war milbloggers actively seek to rationalize and celebrate the attacks.
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:
- The escalating Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities, particularly civilian infrastructure, will likely reinforce the narrative of Russian aggression and the urgent need for continued, robust international military aid, especially air defense systems.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):
- MLCOA 1 (Combined Aerial Assaults): Continued, highly intensive combined drone, missile, and potentially КАБ attacks on Ukrainian urban centers, particularly Kharkiv, Dnipro, and other critical industrial/logistical hubs. These attacks will aim to overwhelm and exhaust Ukrainian air defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- MLCOA 2 (Escalation of Retaliation Cycle): Russia will continue to conduct large-scale, retaliatory strikes in response to any significant Ukrainian deep strikes or frontline successes. This pattern is firmly established. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- MLCOA 3 (Information Ops - Justification): Russia will heavily push narratives justifying its attacks as "retaliation" against "military criminals" or "terrorists," attempting to legitimize targeting of civilian areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):
- MDCOA 1 (Sustained High-Intensity Combined Attacks): A sustained, multi-day campaign of combined missile and drone strikes aimed at crippling specific sectors (e.g., energy grid ahead of a key period, major industrial centers) to a degree that significantly impacts Ukrainian war effort or civilian life for prolonged periods. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
- MDCOA 2 (Ground Offensive Coordinated with Aerial Barrage): A significant ground offensive, potentially on the Sumy or Dnipropetrovsk axes, launched concurrently with a massive, prolonged aerial barrage, aiming to divert Ukrainian air defense and reserve forces, thereby creating a breakthrough opportunity. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:
- Next 2-4 hours: High probability of continued drone and missile activity, particularly in Kharkiv. Air defense forces must maintain maximum readiness. Immediate BDA from Kharkiv will be crucial for assessing damage and casualties.
- Next 6-12 hours: Expect official Ukrainian confirmation and detailed BDA on the extent of damage and casualties in Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Pavlohrad. The full picture of the current combined attack will emerge.
- Next 24-48 hours: High likelihood of further combined aerial attacks. Ukrainian forces will need to assess the effectiveness of current air defense strategies against these new combined tactics and adapt accordingly. International reaction to the targeting of residential buildings will likely intensify.
INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
- Comprehensive Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for Kharkiv:
- GAP: Full scope of damage to civilian enterprises and residential buildings in Kharkiv. Exact number of casualties (killed/injured). Precise types of munitions used for each impact (drone, missile, КАБ).
- IR/CR: OSINT (local reports, official statements, social media, imagery), HUMINT (first responders), GEOINT (post-strike satellite imagery). (PRIORITY: CRITICAL)
- Confirmed Trajectories and Outcomes of Dnipro/Pavlohrad Missiles:
- GAP: Definitive confirmation of the number, type, and impact locations (or interception) of all missiles targeting Dnipro and Pavlohrad.
- IR/CR: SIGINT (air defense reporting), OSINT (local and official statements). (PRIORITY: HIGH)
- Assessment of Russian Combined Attack Effectiveness:
- GAP: How effectively did the combined drone/missile/ballistic attack in Kharkiv achieve Russian objectives (e.g., overwhelming air defense, hitting specific targets)?
- IR/CR: SIGINT (air defense logs), IMINT (post-strike analysis), HUMINT (commander assessments). (PRIORITY: HIGH)
- Confirmation of КАБ use in Kharkiv:
- GAP: Definitive evidence of КАБ (Guided Aerial Bomb) usage in Kharkiv, distinct from missiles or drones.
- IR/CR: OSINT (debris analysis, visual confirmation), IMINT (post-strike analysis). (PRIORITY: MEDIUM)
ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
- Prioritize Air Defense Assets for Combined Threats:
- Recommendation: Immediately reassess and optimize the deployment of existing air defense systems to counter simultaneous drone swarms and multiple missile/ballistic trajectories. Prioritize protecting civilian populations and critical infrastructure in high-threat areas like Kharkiv and Dnipro.
- Action: Implement layered defense strategies, combining short-range systems for drones with medium-to-long-range systems for missiles. Explore capabilities for rapid redeployment based on real-time intelligence.
- Enhance Civilian Resilience and Protection Measures:
- Recommendation: Issue updated public guidance on multi-threat air raid procedures, emphasizing immediate shelter during combined attacks. Coordinate with local authorities to ensure accessible and reinforced shelters, especially in heavily targeted cities like Kharkiv.
- Action: Distribute clear, concise public service announcements (PSAs) on immediate actions during combined attacks. Pre-position medical and emergency response teams close to high-risk zones.
- Intensify Intelligence Collection on Russian Aerial Munitions and Tactics:
- Recommendation: Focus collection efforts on identifying the types, launch platforms, and trajectories of incoming missiles, ballistic threats, and КАБs, particularly their coordination with drone attacks.
- Action: Dedicate SIGINT, GEOINT, and OSINT resources to characterize the evolving Russian combined attack playbook to anticipate future strikes.
- Proactive Information Counter-Offensive:
- Recommendation: Develop and disseminate immediate counter-narratives to Russian attempts to justify attacks on civilians and residential areas (e.g., "solving the Ternopil issue," "targeting military criminals").
- Action: Utilize official channels and international diplomatic avenues to clearly state the facts of Russian war crimes, providing evidence of civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Emphasize the retaliatory nature of these indiscriminate attacks.
- Urgent Request for Additional Air Defense Systems and Munitions:
- Recommendation: Formalize and accelerate requests to international partners for more advanced air defense systems capable of intercepting ballistic missiles (e.g., Patriot, SAMP/T) and a steady supply of interceptor munitions, given the current expenditure rates.
- Action: Highlight the shift to combined, high-intensity attacks as a critical and immediate threat requiring enhanced defensive capabilities.
END OF REPORT
