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Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-06-05 09:54:08Z
8 months ago
Previous (2025-06-05 09:24:08Z)

Operational Intelligence Briefing: Ukraine Focus (Updated as of Thu Jun 5 09:53:44 2025)

Key Updates and Trends

1. Aerial Activity and Air Defense Responses: * UPDATED: Missile Danger in Klintsy (Bryansk Oblast): A missile danger alert was declared for Klintsy, Bryansk Oblast, and later rescinded. This follows previous reports of Ukrainian strikes on Iskander launchers in the same area and suggests continued Ukrainian deep strike capabilities or perceived threats near the border. * UPDATED: Reconnaissance UAV Threats in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts: The Ukrainian Air Force reports renewed Russian reconnaissance UAV activity in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. This indicates ongoing intelligence gathering efforts by Russian forces in these border regions. * New Russian Aviation Strikes Reported by General Staff: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Richky, Vorozhba, Pysarivka, Myropilske of Sumy region; Borova of Kharkiv region; Rodynske, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Markove, Novopil of Donetsk region; Zaliznychne, Novoandriyivka, Kamyanske, Ternuvate, Mala Tokmachka, Kamyanske of Zaporizhzhia region; Radisne of Dnipropetrovsk region; and Olhivka of Kherson region. This indicates widespread Russian aerial bombardment across multiple active fronts. * New "Geran" (Shahed) Activity Over Sumy: Colonelcassad reports and provides video evidence of "Geran" (Shahed) drones over Sumy on the morning of June 5, confirming overnight and morning drone activity in the city, with accompanying audio of anti-aircraft fire and explosions. The text overlay describes daily life in Sumy starting with Shaheds, emphasizing the persistent threat. * Russian Drone Activity Claims in Sumy: НгП раZVедка (Russian milblogger) claims their drones (FPV and Lancets) are "calmly flying" over Sumy, making the "army of child killers and marauders" uncomfortable in the city. This is a propaganda claim of Russian air superiority and psychological pressure. * Ukrainian Aviation Strikes in Tetkino, Kursk Oblast: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS provides video footage purporting to show Ukrainian aviation dropping AASM-250 "Hammer" guided bombs on Russian military positions in Tetkino, Kursk Oblast, near the Sumy border. This, if confirmed, represents a significant Ukrainian deep strike using advanced Western-supplied munitions against Russian border positions. The video shows an aerial view of a building with a Russian flag being destroyed by an explosion. * NEW: Russian MoD Claims Strikes on Ukrainian Drone Production/Storage: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims their forces struck workshops for assembling Ukrainian attack drones, as well as their storage and launch sites, within the last 24 hours. This indicates Russia's continued focus on degrading Ukraine's drone capabilities.

2. Frontline Dynamics and Ground Operations: * UPDATED: General Staff Operational Maps (June 5, 09:00): The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has published updated operational maps for various directions, reflecting clashes from yesterday: * Kharkiv Axis: Clashes near Vovchansk, Vovchanski Khutory, and Kamyanka. * Kupyansk Axis: Clashes near Zahryzove. * Lyman Axis: Clashes near Hrekivka, Novyy Myr, Karpivka, Lypove, Ridkodub, and Torske. * Siversk Axis: Clashes near Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamyanske. * Kramatorsk Axis: Clashes near Kurdumivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, and towards Bila Hora, Markove, and Stupochky. * Toretsk Axis: Clashes near Toretsk, Romanivka, and Rusyn Yar. * Pokrovsk Axis: Clashes near Malynivka, Myrolubivka, Hrodivka, Lysivka, Novoukrayinka, Udachne, Novoserhiyivka, Kotlyarivka, Horikhove, and Andriyivka. * Novopavlivka Axis: Clashes near Odradne, Vesele, Vilne Pole, Novosilka, Novopil, and Bahatyr. * Kursk Region: Ukrainian forces repelled 31 Russian army assaults. * New Russian Claim of "Trophies" from Sumy Region: The Russian Ministry of Defense released a video purporting to show damaged Ukrainian T-64BV tanks being towed in the Sumy region, labeling them "new trophies." This contrasts with previous misidentified "Abrams" claims and now appears to depict actual Ukrainian T-64BV tanks, indicating successful Russian recovery of damaged equipment. * Russian Drone Operations (35th Combined Arms Army): "Воин DV" (Russian milblogger) posted video footage of drone operations by units of the 35th Combined Arms Army during the night, showing explosions in a forested area. This indicates continued Russian drone-assisted assaults and intelligence gathering. * Russian Claim of Donetsk Temple Attack: ASTRA reports a Ukrainian drone attacked the St. Seraphim of Sarov temple in the Petrovsky district of Donetsk, showing damage to the church facade. This is an unverified claim of Ukrainian targeting of religious sites. * Russian Milblogger Video of Damaged Structure: "Два майора" posted a video showing a damaged, possibly fortified, structure with debris and what appears to be military equipment and potentially human remains inside. This is presented as "from the front," indicating the aftermath of combat. * Russian Drone Strikes on Forested Area: "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posted a video showing drone footage of explosions in a forested area, captioned "Чугуния много не бывает!" (You can't have too much cast iron!), implying heavy shelling or air strikes. This indicates continued Russian combat operations. * Ukrainian Infantry Training: The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine have shared photo messages depicting Ukrainian infantry soldiers undergoing training, showcasing readiness for combat, including firing positions and military equipment. This is part of ongoing efforts to maintain and improve combat effectiveness. * NEW: Russian Claims of Ukrainian Infantry Losses in Pokrovsk Direction: WarGonzo released a "special report" showcasing combat activities of the Russian 9th Brigade in the Pokrovsk direction, featuring infantry tactics, use of motorcycles for logistics, and FPV drones. TASS claims Russian "Rubicon" center operators hit a Ukrainian dugout with infantry in the DPR, further asserting Ukrainian personnel losses. * NEW: Russian Map for Kharkiv Direction: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shared a military situation map focusing on the Kharkiv direction, indicating recent or ongoing engagements. While specific details of gains or losses are not immediately clear, it signifies Russian operational focus in this area.

3. Information Warfare and Internal Narratives: * UPDATED: Ura.ru Journalist Detentions: ASTRA reports the detention of another Ura.ru employee, journalist Anna Salymskaya, in addition to the previously reported detentions of Denis Allayarov and Sergey Bodrov. TASS later reports that Sergey Bodrov was released after questioning as a witness. This indicates an expanding scope of internal security operations and media pressure in Russia. * New Russian Claims of British Council Espionage: TASS reports the FSB claims the British Council was collecting intelligence about the situation in Donbas and Novorossiya and the location of Russian troops via Ukrainian refugees. This is a significant escalation of Russian accusations against the British Council, reinforcing the narrative of foreign espionage and justifying its "undesirable" status. "Север.Реалии" provides a summary of information related to the URA.RU raids, suggesting continued focus on this event. * Chinese Assistance to Russia in Drone Race: ASTRA, citing Politico, reports that China is helping Russia to gain an advantage over Ukraine in the drone race. This is a critical development for the future of drone warfare and has geopolitical implications, highlighting China's ongoing support for Russia. * New Moscow Domestic News: "Новости Москвы" posted about trendy glass mugs breaking during washing and an interview with Moscow's Deputy Mayor A. Rakova regarding updates in medicine and education. This reinforces Russia's efforts to project normalcy and focus on domestic improvements. * Russian Internal Discussion on "Father-Hero" Title: TASS reports that the Russian Presidential Administration does not support the idea of granting "Father-Hero" status to men with children from different marriages, clarifying an internal domestic debate. * UPDATED: Kursk Oblast Residents Accounted For: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" confirms previous reports that over 1000 residents of Kursk Oblast have been returned from Ukrainian territory, but data on the whereabouts of 570 more is still unavailable. This confirms ongoing population displacement and highlights humanitarian concerns in the border regions. * Ukrainian Financial Support for Artillery/Drone/Missile Production: RBC-Ukraine and "Оперативний ЗСУ" report that Ukraine will receive €1.3 billion this year for artillery, drone, and missile production under the "Danish model." This is a significant development for boosting Ukraine's defense industrial capabilities. * Ukrainian Perspective on War Duration: RBC-Ukraine reports that the Ministry of Finance is preparing an alternative budget scenario that assumes the war may last throughout 2026. This indicates a pragmatic Ukrainian assessment of the conflict's likely protracted nature. * Ukrainian Internal Messaging on Resilience: The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration shared a video highlighting that despite constant shelling, Zaporizhzhia is not only holding on but "returning life to destroyed areas," aiming to boost morale and project resilience. Serhii Lysak (Dnipropetrovsk OVA) also shared a video featuring a family from Toretsk who evacuated but remain committed to Ukraine, highlighting civilian resilience and volunteerism. * Russian Perspective on Yermak-Trump Call: Kotsnews (Russian milblogger) claims that the conversation between Putin and Trump "nullified" Yermak's trip to the USA, framing it as a diplomatic setback for Ukraine. * SBU Warning Against New Russian Recruitment Tactics (Reiteration): STERNENKO reposts the SBU warning about new Russian recruitment tactics, emphasizing impersonation of SBU officers to coerce Ukrainians, highlighting the severity and ongoing nature of this internal security threat. * New Russian Donation Drive: "Сливочный каприз" (Russian milblogger) is fundraising for quadcopters, including a DJI Mavic 3 Classic drone, with a receipt from Grozny, Chechen Republic. This indicates continued reliance on private donations for military equipment and a supply chain involving Chechen businesses. * Alex Parker Returns on Voronezh Railway Incident: Alex Parker Returns confirms that several IEDs were found on the railway tracks near the explosion site in Voronezh Oblast, explicitly linking the incident to sabotage rather than a technical accident and criticizing Russian negotiators engaging with "terrorists." * NEW: Russian FM Ryabkov on "Operation Web" Damage: BUTUSOV PLUS reports that Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov claimed Russian aircraft damaged during "Operation Web" on June 1 were not destroyed but only damaged and will be restored. This is a direct attempt to downplay the impact of Ukrainian deep strikes. * NEW: Putin's "Terrorist Regime" Rhetoric Continues: TASS reports Dmitry Peskov stating that Russia will consider the "Kyivan regime" as a "terrorist" one in future negotiations, and that decisions on Ukrainian "terrorist attacks" on trains could not have been made without Zelenskyy's involvement. This reinforces Russia's justification for continued military action and hardens their negotiation stance. * NEW: Trump's Reaction to Ukrainian Drone Attack: "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports Axios indicating that Trump found the recent Ukrainian drone attack (likely referring to "Operation Web") "strong" and "cool." This, if accurate, signals a complex and potentially supportive stance from Trump regarding Ukrainian offensive actions despite his prior call with Putin. * NEW: Russian Claims of Significant Ukrainian Losses: TASS, citing the Russian MoD, claims Ukrainian forces lost approximately 1,400 military personnel in the "special operation zone" over the last 24 hours. This is a highly inflated figure likely for propaganda purposes. * NEW: Russian Internal Migration Irregularities: Colonelcassad reports the detention of 4 individuals, including a policeman, in Yekaterinburg for organizing illegal migration for 2,000 people into Russia. This highlights internal security and corruption concerns within Russia. * NEW: Russian Domestic News on US: "Новости Москвы" posted a photo message about the US proposing to "collect a child's avatar and then give birth to it." This is likely part of Russian state media's portrayal of the US as morally decadent or scientifically extreme. * NEW: Russian Internal Incident - Death from Military Service: "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" reports a person harmed by a serviceman died in intensive care. This, if linked to internal military incidents, could reflect issues within the Russian military or domestic security. * NEW: Russian Confirmation of Putin-Trump Conversation on Airfield Attacks: TASS confirms Peskov stated Putin told Trump that Russia would respond to attacks on airfields. This reiterates the direct warning issued by Putin to Trump. * NEW: Rybar and Two Mayors Map Railway Attacks: Rybar and Two Mayors both shared a map titled "Terrorist attacks on railway tracks in Russia," displaying various incidents related to railway infrastructure. This is a Russian attempt to frame these incidents as Ukrainian terrorism.

4. Civilian Impact and Infrastructure Damage: * UPDATED: Casualties in Pryluky, Chernihiv Oblast: RBC-Ukraine reports the number of injured in Pryluky has increased to 9 (previously 8) as a result of the overnight drone attack. This further confirms the severe civilian impact. * New Claim of Ukrainian Drone Attack on Donetsk Temple: ASTRA reports a Ukrainian drone attacked the St. Seraphim of Sarov temple in the Petrovsky district of Donetsk, showing damage to the church facade. This is an unverified claim of Ukrainian targeting of religious sites. * NEW: Casualties from Poltava Training Ground Strike: RBC-Ukraine reports that 2 injured individuals died in the hospital following a strike on a training ground in Poltava Oblast. This confirms additional casualties from a military-related incident. * NEW: Report of "Riot" at Kyiv Mobilization Point (Unconfirmed): RBC-Ukraine reports a "riot" at a mobilization point in Kyiv. This is a significant claim that, if confirmed, could indicate internal friction or resistance to mobilization efforts.

5. Russian Military Development: * No new significant developments in this category within the latest messages beyond drone-related activities.

6. Naval Activity: * No new developments in this category within the latest messages.

7. Transportation: * UPDATED: Voronezh Railway Incident: Alex Parker Returns confirms that several IEDs were found on the railway tracks near the explosion site in Voronezh Oblast, explicitly linking the incident to sabotage rather than a technical accident. "Военкор Котенок" and "Оперативний ЗСУ" provide multiple photos of the damaged railway tracks in Voronezh Oblast, showing broken rails and dislodged sleepers, consistent with an explosion.

8. Ukrainian Mobilization: * NEW: Report of "Riot" at Kyiv Mobilization Point (Unconfirmed): RBC-Ukraine reports a "riot" at a mobilization point in Kyiv. This is a significant claim that, if confirmed, could indicate internal friction or resistance to mobilization efforts.

9. General Staff Updates: * General Staff Operational Maps: The detailed General Staff maps provide crucial updates on the specific locations of clashes across Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and Kursk axes, offering granular intelligence on the current tactical situation. * Russian Aviation Strikes: The General Staff reports widespread Russian aviation strikes across multiple regions, indicating sustained air operations.

10. Geopolitical/Military Developments: * Ukrainian Financial Support for Artillery/Drone/Missile Production: The reported €1.3 billion for artillery, drone, and missile production via the "Danish model" signifies a robust and direct financial commitment from Denmark to bolster Ukraine's defense industrial capabilities. * NEW: Putin Supports Continued Contacts with Kyiv: "Военкор Котенок" and Alex Parker Returns report that the Kremlin (Peskov) states Putin supports continuing working-level contacts with Kyiv despite labeling the "Kyivan regime" as "terrorist." This signals a complex and possibly contradictory Russian diplomatic stance, maintaining an avenue for communication while publicly delegitimizing the Ukrainian government.

Strategic Projections

The strategic environment remains highly dynamic, characterized by persistent Russian aerial attacks across multiple fronts, confirmed territorial gains by Russia in Sumy and Donetsk, and intensified information warfare by both sides. The increased casualty count in Pryluky (now 9 injured) and 2 confirmed deaths at a Poltava training ground from drone attacks continues to underscore the severe and indiscriminate impact on Ukrainian civilians and personnel. The General Staff's detailed operational maps provide critical, granular intelligence on the tactical situation across Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and Kursk axes, highlighting ongoing, active combat zones. The reported Russian aviation strikes across numerous settlements further confirm the sustained and widespread nature of their air operations.

A significant development is the alleged Ukrainian aviation strike using AASM-250 "Hammer" guided bombs on Russian military positions in Tetkino, Kursk Oblast. If confirmed, this marks an escalation in Ukraine's deep strike capabilities, employing advanced Western precision munitions against Russian territory. This directly counters previous Russian claims of holding Tetkino and adds to the pressure on Russian border defenses. The confirmation of IEDs at the Voronezh railway explosion site, with accompanying visual evidence, further reinforces Ukraine's successful deep strike capabilities and Russia's ongoing attempts to control the narrative. Russia's MoD claiming to strike Ukrainian drone facilities indicates their concern and efforts to counter this growing threat.

Russian internal security measures are visibly tightening, with the detention of another Ura.ru journalist in Yekaterinburg, expanding the crackdown on media and information flow. The FSB's claims of the British Council collecting intelligence via Ukrainian refugees are a clear escalation of Russian information warfare, aiming to discredit Western organizations and justify internal repression. The POLITICO report, cited by ASTRA, on China assisting Russia in the drone race is a critical geopolitical development, indicating an evolving and significant external support for Russia's military capabilities, which will have long-term implications for the balance of power in drone warfare. This necessitates an immediate reassessment of Ukraine's drone procurement and counter-drone strategies.

Russia continues its efforts to project normalcy and focus on domestic issues through state media, while also attempting to manage narratives around military successes and downplay Ukrainian gains. The newly released Russian Ministry of Defense video purporting to show captured Ukrainian T-64BV tanks in Sumy Oblast, while likely a propaganda piece, indicates actual recovery of Ukrainian equipment, a shift from previous misidentified "Abrams" claims. The persistent flow of updates regarding Kursk Oblast residents (returned vs. unaccounted for) highlights the ongoing humanitarian consequences of the border conflict. The Russian milblogger's fundraising for quadcopters, involving a purchase from Chechnya, underscores the continued reliance on private donations and the diverse supply chains supporting Russian forces. Russia's Deputy FM Ryabkov's statement that "Operation Web" damage was not destructive but repairable is a clear attempt to minimize the impact of successful Ukrainian deep strikes, underscoring ongoing information warfare. The continued framing of Ukraine as a "terrorist regime" by Peskov serves to harden Russia's negotiation stance while paradoxically stating a willingness for "working-level contacts," indicating a complex, contradictory diplomatic approach.

On the Ukrainian side, the reported €1.3 billion from Denmark for artillery, drone, and missile production is a significant positive development, signaling sustained and concrete international support for strengthening Ukraine's defense industrial base. The Ukrainian Ministry of Finance preparing a budget scenario extending the war into 2026 indicates a pragmatic and realistic assessment of the conflict's protracted nature, allowing for long-term planning. Ukrainian internal messaging continues to focus on resilience and national unity, as demonstrated by the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk OVA updates. The reiteration of the SBU warning about new Russian recruitment tactics, involving impersonation and coercion, highlights an evolving and pervasive internal threat that Ukraine must actively counter through public awareness. The unconfirmed report of a "riot" at a Kyiv mobilization point, if verified, would require immediate attention and de-escalation strategies to maintain internal cohesion. Trump's reported positive reaction to Ukrainian drone attacks, despite his call with Putin, adds an intriguing layer to international perceptions and potential future US support.

Risk Assessment

  • Elevated Risk of Ukrainian Deep Strikes and Border Escalation: The alleged Ukrainian aviation strike in Tetkino using "Hammer" bombs and the confirmed IEDs at the Voronezh railway site indicate a continued and potentially escalating risk of Ukrainian deep strikes into Russian territory, using advanced munitions. This could provoke further retaliation.
  • Continued High Civilian Casualties from Russian Aerial Attacks: The updated casualty count in Pryluky and the widespread Russian aviation strikes reported by the General Staff across multiple regions confirm the ongoing severe risk to Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure from aerial bombardment. The reported drone attack on a Donetsk temple, if verified, could also exacerbate civilian suffering and increase religious tensions. The deaths at the Poltava training ground underscore risks even in rear areas.
  • Geopolitical Shift in Drone Warfare: China's alleged assistance to Russia in the drone race poses a substantial risk to Ukraine's ability to maintain parity or superiority in this critical domain. This could lead to an imbalance in drone capabilities, requiring urgent adaptation by Ukraine and its allies. Russia's claims of striking Ukrainian drone facilities highlight their active targeting of this capability.
  • Tightening Russian Internal Control and Information Suppression: The continued detentions of Ura.ru journalists and the expanded FSB claims against the British Council indicate an intensifying crackdown on information flow and perceived foreign influence within Russia. This reduces the availability of independent information and limits the ability to assess internal Russian dynamics accurately. Internal incidents like illegal migration and death from military service reflect underlying societal tensions.
  • Persistent Russian Ground Pressure: The General Staff's operational maps confirm active and widespread clashes across numerous axes, indicating sustained Russian ground pressure, particularly in Donetsk and the border regions like Kharkiv and Sumy. Russian claims of significant Ukrainian personnel losses, while exaggerated, indicate sustained engagements.
  • Evolving Russian Information and Recruitment Tactics: The SBU's renewed warning about sophisticated Russian recruitment tactics (impersonation, coercion) highlights a persistent and insidious internal threat to Ukrainian society, risking compromise of individuals and undermining social cohesion. Russian efforts to downplay "Operation Web" damage are part of this broader information campaign.
  • Protracted Conflict Implications: Ukraine's Ministry of Finance preparing for the war to last until 2026 suggests the high likelihood of a long-term conflict, which will continue to place immense strain on human and economic resources, and international support.
  • Internal Cohesion Risks in Ukraine: The unconfirmed report of a "riot" at a Kyiv mobilization point indicates a potential vulnerability to internal unrest or resistance to mobilization efforts, which could be exploited by Russian information operations.

Resource Allocation Considerations

  • Urgent Assessment and Mitigation of Chinese Drone Support to Russia: Ukrainian and allied intelligence agencies must immediately verify the extent of China's assistance to Russia's drone program. If confirmed, this necessitates a rapid and robust counter-strategy, including accelerated development of indigenous counter-drone technologies, increased procurement of advanced Western systems, and diplomatic efforts to constrain such support.
  • Sustained and Adaptive Air Defense: Continued prioritization and dynamic allocation of air defense assets to counter widespread Russian aviation and drone strikes are paramount. This includes defenses against guided aerial bombs and Shahed drones across all threatened regions. The success of advanced Western munitions in Ukrainian deep strikes, if confirmed (e.g., AASM-250 "Hammer"), also indicates the continued need for such systems to be supplied in sufficient quantities.
  • Invest in Domestic Defense Production: The €1.3 billion from Denmark for artillery, drone, and missile production is a critical investment that should be aggressively leveraged to enhance Ukraine's self-sufficiency in key military hardware. This reduces reliance on external supply chains and strengthens long-term defense capabilities.
  • Reinforce Border Defenses and Deep Strike Capabilities: The confirmed Ukrainian deep strikes (Voronezh railway, alleged Tetkino aviation strike) indicate an effective strategy to impose costs on Russia. Continued investment in and execution of such operations are crucial, alongside strengthening border defenses to repel Russian advances.
  • Proactive Counter-Information Warfare: Ukraine must continue to vigorously counter Russian information operations, including claims of captured equipment (e.g., T-64BV video), accusations against Western entities (British Council), downplaying "Operation Web" damage, and internal narratives of stability. Public awareness campaigns regarding new Russian recruitment tactics are vital for internal security. Highlighting civilian resilience and the human cost of the war will remain crucial for international support.
  • Long-Term Planning and Resource Mobilization: Ukraine's acknowledgment of a potentially protracted conflict (into 2026) necessitates comprehensive long-term planning for resource mobilization, economic stability, and sustained international support.
  • Monitor Russian Internal Security and Military Development: Continuous monitoring of Russia's internal crackdowns on media and information, as well as their military developments (e.g., drone capabilities, counter-measures, supply chains via private donations, internal friction points), is crucial for anticipating future actions and adapting Ukrainian strategies.
  • Humanitarian Support in Border Regions: Continued allocation of resources and support for humanitarian efforts in conflict-affected border regions, such as Kursk and Sumy Oblasts, is essential to address the needs of displaced populations.
  • Address Mobilization Concerns: Investigate and address any reports of internal friction or "riots" at mobilization points swiftly and transparently to maintain public trust and national unity.
Previous (2025-06-05 09:24:08Z)

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