Operational Intelligence Briefing: Ukraine Focus (Updated as of Wed Jun 4 14:09:52 2025)

Major Updates

• Deep Strikes & Retaliation (Focus: SBU "Operation Web" Confirmation & Russian Reaction):
  • SBU Releases New "Operation Web" Footage: Multiple Ukrainian sources (РБК-Україна, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Николаевский Ванёк, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) have widely shared "unique video footage" from the SBU's "Operation Web." This footage explicitly shows drone attacks on Russian military airfields: Olenya, Ivanovo, and Belaya (and implicitly Dyagilevo, based on previous CyberBoroshno content). The videos depict direct hits and resulting fires on various large aircraft, including Tu-95 Bear, Il-76 Candid, and Tu-22M Backfire aircraft. This directly confirms the scale and success of these deep strike operations and visually corroborates previous reports of 41 aircraft hit. CyberBoroshno specifically points to a damaged Tu-22, reinforcing prior assessments. Ukrainian sources also mock Russian defenses, noting "some planes were completely unprotected by 'tires'," indicating a perceived "state-level negligence."
  • Russian Reaction: Explicit Condemnation & Demands: Russian officials, including Putin, Lavrov, Medinsky, and Bastrykin, are vehemently reacting to these deep strikes.
    • Putin's Escalated Rhetoric: Putin now states that the "Kyivan regime, already illegitimate, is transforming into a terrorist organization" and that "Ukraine is suffering huge losses and retreating along the entire front line, therefore it is trying to intimidate Russia with terrorist acts." This marks a significant escalation in the Russian narrative, explicitly linking Ukrainian deep strikes to "terrorism" and Russia's claimed battlefield successes.
    • Lavrov's Demands for US/UK Intervention: Lavrov demands that Washington and London "influence Kyiv to stop this cycle of escalation" regarding attacks on railway lines and airfields, indicating a shift from direct threats to calls for external pressure. He also reiterates that Ukraine's refusal of previous short ceasefires was a "gross mistake."
    • Bastrykin's Investigation Details: Bastrykin, head of the Investigative Committee, provides detailed claims regarding railway attacks in Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts:
      • All three "terrorist attacks" were "planned by Ukrainian special services."
      • Explosives in Bryansk were "foreign-made" with a "Ukrainian control unit."
      • Blast yielded "about 15 kg in TNT equivalent."
      • Five explosive devices were used in the Kursk railway attack.
      • Unexploded devices (2) and 13kg of plastic explosives with Ukrainian control units were found in a cache in Bryansk Oblast.
      • Overall damage from these three "terrorist attacks" is estimated at "over 1 billion rubles."
      • Russian security forces conducted operations between May 20-25 in Bryansk Oblast to neutralize a "Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group" (DRG).
      • Medical reports indicate 120 victims sought aid in Bryansk Oblast.
    • Medinsky's Negotiation Stance: Medinsky, while discussing prisoner exchanges, emphasizes that the "ball is on Ukraine's side" regarding negotiations, indicating Russia's preconditions for a political settlement.
• Frontline Dynamics & Combat Operations:
  • Continued KAB Strikes on Sumy Oblast: The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation towards Sumy Oblast," specifically mentioning "KAB in the direction of Khotin/Sumy." This confirms ongoing and significant aerial pressure on the Sumy region.
  • Alleged Russian Strike on Volunteer Formation Center in Poltava: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (Russian source) claims Russian forces struck a facility in Poltava where "volunteer units, trained in Europe, are being formed." This, if true, indicates Russian targeting of Ukrainian training and mobilization efforts.
  • Russian Drone Activity on Polozhsky Direction: Воин DV (Russian source) shares video claiming 64th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (Eastern Grouping) drone operators destroyed "enemy UAVs, artillery, and equipment" on the Polozhsky direction, suggesting active counter-drone and precision strike operations.
• Personnel & Losses:
  • Prisoner/Body Exchange Details: Medinsky (Russian source) confirms Russia's readiness to accept bodies of deceased Russian soldiers from Ukraine and reiterates the ongoing preparation for a 1200 for 1200 prisoner exchange, with initial focus on wounded/seriously ill and those under 25, potentially starting June 7-9. This aligns with previous reports.
  • Casualty Estimates by CSIS (Contested): Север.Реалии (Ukrainian source) cites CSIS reporting 1 million Russian and 400,000 Ukrainian soldier losses. This is a very high estimate and needs independent verification, as official figures from both sides are significantly lower and often contested.
• Russian Internal Affairs & Propaganda:
  • Focus on Internal Security & "Terrorism": The intense focus on detailed investigations and claims of neutralizing Ukrainian "DRGs" and "terrorist acts" by Russian officials (Putin, Bastrykin) indicates a strong domestic narrative push to frame Ukrainian deep strikes as terrorism and justify Russian counter-actions.
  • Domestic Drone Production & Space Program: Colonelcassad reports "deployed drone production in Kamchatka," and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 states Russia plans to deploy "over 100 satellites in space to control UAVs" under a national project. These indicate significant Russian investment in scaling domestic drone capabilities and enhancing their command and control infrastructure.
  • Education Propaganda: Igor Artamonov (Russian official) highlights "phenomenal first results of the Unified State Exam" in his region with "28 centenarians," likely a propaganda piece to project normalcy and success in domestic affairs despite the war.
  • Cultural Propaganda: Новости Москвы promotes a new TV series, highlighting a return to civilian entertainment as part of normalizing life.
• International Developments:
  • Netherlands Maritime Aid to Ukraine: STERNENKO reports the Netherlands will provide a "maritime aid package" worth €400 million to Ukraine, indicating continued Western military support focusing on specific capabilities.
  • NATO Air Defense Capabilities: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (Russian source citing Bloomberg) reports NATO's request for European members to increase ground air defense capabilities fivefold, underscoring continued Western concerns about air defense shortfalls and Russia's aerial threat.
  • Zelenskyy on Negotiations: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy's statements:
    • He views Russia's "memorandum" as an "ultimatum," reinforcing Ukraine's rejection of Russian preconditions.
    • He is "not yet determined" on the candidate for Commander of Ground Forces, replacing Drapatiy, indicating an ongoing leadership transition.
    • He will respond to the question of being "ready for a meeting with Putin without a ceasefire," implying a complex stance on high-level negotiations.
• Ukrainian Internal Affairs:
  • Cybercrime in Zaporizhzhia: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Cyberpolice in Zaporizhzhia exposed a hacker who caused "millions in damages" through cryptocurrency mining, indicating continued internal law enforcement efforts.
  • Youth Patriotism Initiative: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) shares photos of a new "Future of Ukraine" award initiated by President Zelenskyy for "young patriots" who demonstrate "humanity, dignity, courage, and determination," showcasing efforts to foster national pride and resilience among youth.

Strategic Projections

The release of explicit SBU "Operation Web" footage, including targets like Tu-95, Il-76, and Tu-22M at specific Russian airfields, is a significant psychological and informational victory for Ukraine. This public demonstration of deep strike capabilities will likely force Russia to accelerate measures to harden its airfields and disperse strategic aviation. Russia's immediate, highly aggressive rhetoric, framing these actions as "terrorism" and demanding Western intervention, suggests an attempt to shift blame and pressure Ukraine's international partners. The detailed "investigation" reports by Bastrykin are primarily designed for internal consumption, to justify a strong response and reinforce the narrative of Ukraine as a terrorist state.

The repeated guided aerial bomb launches on Sumy Oblast remain a critical concern, indicating sustained Russian aerial pressure on the northern front. The alleged strike on a volunteer formation center in Poltava, if confirmed, highlights Russia's attempts to disrupt Ukraine's force generation and training efforts, including those supported by European partners.

The continued dialogue around prisoner exchanges, while positive for humanitarian reasons, remains entangled with the broader political stalemate. Medinsky's statement that the "ball is on Ukraine's side" underscores Russia's maximalist demands. Zelenskyy's characterization of Russia's "memorandum" as an "ultimatum" confirms the fundamental divergence in peace terms.

Russia's stated plans for expanded domestic drone production and a satellite network for UAV control indicate a long-term commitment to drone warfare and enhanced command and control capabilities, posing a growing threat to Ukrainian forces and infrastructure. NATO's reported request for a fivefold increase in European ground air defense is a direct acknowledgment of the evolving air threat from Russia and the need for more robust collective defense.

Risk Assessment

• Elevated Risk of Russian Retaliatory Strikes: The public release of SBU footage and explicit Russian "terrorism" accusations significantly increase the probability of further, potentially severe, Russian retaliatory missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.
• Sustained Aerial Threat to Sumy Oblast: The continued guided aerial bomb launches indicate that Sumy Oblast remains a high-risk area for aerial bombardment, demanding robust and adaptive air defense.
• Intensified Information Warfare: The detailed Russian claims of "Ukrainian terrorism" in railway attacks, coupled with calls for Western intervention, will intensify the information war, requiring robust Ukrainian counter-narratives and proactive communication with allies.
• Long-term Russian Drone Capability Development: Russia's stated plans for increased domestic drone production and a dedicated satellite constellation for UAV control indicate a strategic shift that will enhance their reconnaissance and strike capabilities, posing a significant future threat.
• Diplomatic Impasse: The confirmed gap in negotiation positions, with Ukraine rejecting Russian "ultimatums" and Russia demanding an end to deep strikes as a precondition, suggests that a political resolution remains distant despite humanitarian gestures like prisoner exchanges.

Resource Allocation Considerations

• Prioritize Air Defense Assets: Immediate assessment and deployment of mobile air defense systems and electronic warfare countermeasures to Sumy Oblast to counter persistent KAB strikes and reconnaissance UAVs.
• Fortify Strategic Infrastructure: Enhance defenses around critical civilian and military infrastructure across Ukraine, anticipating further Russian retaliatory strikes.
• Strategic Communication: Develop and disseminate clear, strong counter-narratives to Russia's "terrorism" accusations, emphasizing Ukraine's right to self-defense and the targeting of legitimate military assets, especially to international partners.
• Counter-Drone Capabilities: Continue rapid development and deployment of counter-drone technologies (EW, interceptor drones, traditional AD) to mitigate Russia's expanding drone capabilities, particularly their efforts to enhance command and control.
• Diplomatic Engagement: Maintain close contact with international partners to ensure unwavering support and to counter Russian diplomatic pressure campaigns. Clarify Western positions on military aid and negotiations.
• Force Generation Protection: Implement enhanced security measures for training centers and volunteer formation sites, especially in areas susceptible to Russian long-range strikes.