Operational Intelligence Briefing: Ukraine Focus (Updated as of Wed Jun 04 08:09:49 2025)

Major Updates

• Deep Strikes & Retaliation:

  • Ukrainian Deep Strike Effectiveness Confirmed by New Satellite Imagery: ASTRA has released new satellite imagery of Olenya Air Base (Murmansk Oblast) purportedly showing the destruction of at least four Tu-95MS strategic bombers, damage to an An-124, and possible damage to another aircraft on the runway. This directly corroborates prior Ukrainian claims of extensive damage to Russian strategic aviation assets and further contradicts previous Russian denials. STERNENKO has also released video footage, titled "How 'Operation Web' began," allegedly showing unique footage of the preparation for the special operation to strike Russian strategic aviation, including a truck loaded with modular buildings, likely a disguised mobile drone launch system, further validating Ukrainian deep strike methods. Operatyvnyi ZSU and RBK-Ukraine also released similar videos.
  • Renewed Russian Retaliation - Kharkiv and Sumy: RBK-Ukraine reports an explosion at a gas station on the outskirts of Kharkiv. Oleg Synyehubov, Head of the Kharkiv Regional State Administration, confirms a strike on Kyivskyi district of Kharkiv, with one casualty reported from a fallen UAV. RBK-Ukraine reports another explosion in Sumy, citing media. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of aviation-launched munitions threat for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district). The Ukrainian Air Force also warns of an enemy UAV approaching Sumy from the north, urging residents to take shelter. Basurin о главном (citing pro-Russian underground sources) claims Russian "Geran" drones struck ammunition and fuel depots, Shkolny airfield in Odesa, and a unit of Ukrainian forces and French mercenaries. This is supported by photo and video evidence of damaged structures. MoD Russia has released a video purportedly showing a "Geran" UAV destroying a Ukrainian UAV depot near Kherson, reinforcing claims of targeted strikes against Ukrainian drone capabilities.
  • Russian Analysis of Ukrainian Drone Launch Systems: STERNENKO and Operatyvnyi ZSU have released new video footage showing "Operation Web" preparations, explicitly depicting a truck loaded with modular buildings, indicating it was part of a disguised mobile drone launch system used for the strategic aviation strikes. This provides further visual confirmation of the tactics previously analyzed by Russian sources and validates the effectiveness of these methods.
  • Internal Russian Explosions/Fires: Alex Parker Returns questions the silence of the "all-powerful Armenian diaspora" and Simonyan regarding the alleged kidnapping of an Armenian by Chechens in Moscow, highlighting continued internal ethnic tensions and perceived impunity. "Два майора" has released videos purporting to show journalists encountering the "bearded men" (alleged kidnappers) in Moscow before they departed with police escort, and also show police presence on a street near a train station. They report "respect" to police for preventing "unlawful actions," implying the situation has been contained or resolved, and that "such arbitrariness is unacceptable." This ongoing public discourse around the kidnapping incident continues to reveal internal security challenges.
  • International Reaction to Ukrainian Deep Strikes: Janus Putkonen, a Finnish milblogger, has condemned what he calls "Ukrainian Nazi terrorists" for attempting to destroy a civilian target, likely referring to the Kerch Bridge or other deep strikes, indicating Russian attempts to frame Ukrainian actions as terrorism for an international audience.

• Frontline Dynamics & Combat Operations:

  • Russian Drone & Artillery Activity: Narodnaya Militsiya DNR has released videos showing FPV drones of the 8th Army destroying Ukrainian communication antennas, highlighting continued Russian efforts to disrupt Ukrainian C2. Voin DV has released a video purportedly showing units of the 36th Combined Arms Army conducting night strikes, destroying Ukrainian targets. TASS has released a video claiming an "Iskander-M" ballistic missile strike destroyed a Ukrainian IRIS-T air defense system in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, reinforcing previous claims of successful strikes on high-value Ukrainian air defense assets.
  • Russian Offensive Tempo: Сливочный каприз has published photo messages with charts and tables, dated June 3, 2025, titled "Tempo of the RF Armed Forces' offensive operation in the SVO zone," displaying daily and monthly territorial gains (km² per day/month) from June 2023 to June 2025, attempting to showcase a sustained Russian advance. Colonelcassad has released similar "Cartographic results of May 2025" from @lost_armour, detailing changes in controlled territory and the pace of Russian advances.
  • Ukrainian Combat Footage: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (Ukrainian Air Assault Forces) have released multiple photo messages showing soldiers, potentially artillery crew, in what appears to be field positions and bunkers, with one caption sarcastically noting "You could say we went carriage to carriage," potentially referring to artillery or armored vehicle movements. This highlights ongoing Ukrainian military operations and morale.
  • Russian Propaganda on Ukrainian Mobilization: "Два майора" and "Операция Z" (citing "Военкоры Русской Весны") have released videos purporting to show a man in Kyiv attempting to escape from a TCC (Territorial Recruitment Center) by climbing out of a bus window, suggesting a forceful mobilization and resistance to it, likely for Russian propaganda purposes to highlight Ukrainian internal issues.

• Personnel & Losses:

  • Ukrainian Commemoration of Children: Zelenskiy / Official, Oleg Synyehubov, Head of the Kharkiv Regional State Administration, and the Prosecutor General's Office have released video messages titled "Russia killed these children with its war," highlighting the devastating impact of the conflict on Ukrainian children with specific dates and locations of fatalities. Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration has also participated in the international "Voices of Children" campaign, holding a memorial event in Zaporizhzhia featuring testimonies from affected families. Oleksandr Vilkul has also released photo messages commemorating June 4 as the Day of Remembrance for children killed due to Russian aggression. This underscores Ukraine's focus on documenting and memorializing civilian casualties, particularly children, and building a narrative of Russian war crimes.
  • Ukrainian Coordination Staff for POWs Meeting: The Coordination Staff for POWs has released photo messages detailing a meeting in Bohodukhiv (Kharkiv Oblast) with families of missing and captured military personnel, indicating continued efforts to support and engage with these families.

• Russian Internal Affairs & Propaganda:

  • Migration Policy Debate: Alex Parker Returns is promoting a poll asking if Russia needs a visa regime with Central Asian countries, with 98% voting "Yes," and a graphic stating "Citizens of Russia for a visa regime with Central Asian countries and Transcaucasia!" This indicates a strong internal Russian sentiment towards tightening migration policies.
  • Economic Forecasts: Старше Эдды (Older Edda) reports that "more than 350 foreign companies are expected to return to Russia in 2026," anticipating increased demand for top managers. This is a Russian attempt to project economic recovery and attract investment.
  • Political Dissident Commemoration: Север.Реалии reports that Alexei Navalny would have turned 49 today, and his mother and Julia Navalny's mother, as well as Ilya Yashin's parents, visited Borisovskoye Cemetery. This highlights continued internal dissent and commemoration of opposition figures in Russia.
  • WarGonzo on Enemy Success: WarGonzo has released a photo message titled "Why the enemy succeeds? – philosophy and sociology of war," suggesting an internal discussion or analysis within Russian milblogger circles about Ukrainian military effectiveness.

Strategic Projections

The release of new satellite imagery by ASTRA confirming extensive damage to strategic Russian bombers at Olenya Air Base, coupled with the Ukrainian SBU/STERNENKO video showing the "Operation Web" preparations, signifies a significant escalation and validation of Ukrainian deep strike capabilities. This directly counters Russian denials and demonstrates Ukraine's ability to reach and damage critical, high-value Russian military assets far behind the front lines, potentially degrading Russia's long-range aviation capabilities. The continued retaliatory strikes on Kharkiv and Sumy, including a new reported explosion in Sumy, underscore Russia's ongoing and intense aerial campaign targeting Ukrainian urban centers and potentially critical infrastructure in border regions. The claimed Russian success in destroying Ukrainian communication antennas and an IRIS-T air defense system highlights Russia's focus on degrading Ukrainian C2 and air defense capabilities.

The Russian milblogger narratives on offensive tempo and territorial gains, particularly from Сливочный каприз and Colonelcassad, indicate a persistent Russian attempt to project sustained momentum and advances on the ground, likely aimed at bolstering internal morale and justifying the war effort. The continued presence of Russian "Geran" drones in Odesa and Kherson, along with claims of striking depots and airfields, demonstrates Russia's ongoing effort to degrade Ukrainian logistics and air assets in southern Ukraine.

The intensified Ukrainian commemoration of children killed in the war, coupled with ongoing support for families of missing and captured military personnel, signifies a deliberate and comprehensive Ukrainian information and psychological warfare effort aimed at mobilizing domestic and international support, emphasizing civilian suffering, and documenting Russian war crimes. This contrasts sharply with Russian propaganda attempting to highlight internal Ukrainian divisions (e.g., forced mobilization in Kyiv) and project economic and internal stability. The public discourse around the Moscow kidnapping incident among Russian milbloggers indicates internal security challenges and a potential lack of rule of law, which Ukraine can leverage for information operations.

Risk Assessment

• Continued Russian Retaliation for Deep Strikes: The new, conclusive satellite imagery confirming severe damage to Russian strategic aviation assets at Olenya Air Base significantly increases the immediate risk of severe and widespread Russian retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian cities, critical infrastructure, and military targets. Russia will likely seek to demonstrate its ability to inflict proportional or greater damage. The confirmed strikes on Kharkiv and Sumy indicate this retaliation is already underway.
• Persistent Russian Aerial Threats: The ongoing threat of aviation-launched munitions in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and UAVs in Sumy, coupled with claimed successful strikes on Ukrainian communication and air defense assets, indicates a sustained and dynamic Russian aerial campaign. Ukraine's air defense remains under significant pressure, and there is a high risk of continued damage to civilian infrastructure and potential casualties.
• Intensified Ground Pressure and Propaganda: Russian attempts to demonstrate offensive tempo and territorial gains, especially in the Donbas, indicate continued ground pressure. Russia's efforts to highlight internal Ukrainian issues like forced mobilization pose a risk of undermining Ukrainian public confidence and morale.
• Information Warfare Escalation: The conflicting narratives and new visual evidence from both sides suggest an intensified information war. Ukraine needs to rapidly disseminate verified information, especially regarding Russian losses and war crimes, to counter Russian propaganda and maintain international support. The public discussion of the Moscow kidnapping incident presents both a risk of internal instability for Russia and an opportunity for Ukraine to exploit.
• Internal Russian Dynamics: The visible internal security concerns in Russia, particularly around the Moscow kidnapping incident and the debate over migration policies, could indicate underlying societal tensions. While these are not direct military threats, they represent a long-term risk of internal instability or resource diversion for Russia.

Resource Allocation Considerations

• Air Defense and Counter-Drone Capabilities: Immediate and substantial allocation of resources to enhance air defense systems, particularly for urban centers like Kharkiv and Sumy, and for critical infrastructure. Prioritize procurement and deployment of counter-drone technologies to mitigate the persistent threat of Russian UAVs and "Geran" strikes. Funds should be allocated for rapid damage assessment and repair of infrastructure hit in recent retaliatory strikes.
• Strategic Communications and Information Warfare: Develop and rapidly deploy robust counter-narratives to all Russian propaganda, especially regarding civilian casualties, deep strikes, and internal Ukrainian issues. Proactively use confirmed intelligence, such as the new satellite imagery of Olenya Air Base, to highlight Russian losses and Ukrainian successes. Systematically document and publicize war crimes, particularly the impact on children.
• Intelligence and Analysis: Prioritize intelligence gathering on Russian internal dynamics, including security incidents, public sentiment shifts (e.g., migration poll), and economic indicators (e.g., foreign company return), to identify and exploit vulnerabilities. Continue to analyze Russian military doctrine and adaptations, especially concerning drone warfare and air defense suppression.
• Humanitarian Aid and Civilian Support: Increase resources for humanitarian assistance, psychological support, and memorialization efforts for civilians, particularly children, affected by Russian aggression. Continue to engage with and support families of missing and captured military personnel.
• Diplomatic Engagement: Leverage the confirmed success of deep strikes to advocate for increased international military aid and sanctions. Engage with international partners to counter Russian disinformation. Continue to emphasize the humanitarian impact of Russian aggression to maintain international pressure and support.
• Military Operations and Defense: Maintain strong defensive postures in areas under Russian ground pressure, such as the Sumy direction. Prioritize resources for maintaining command and control systems, and enhancing communication network resilience against Russian FPV drone attacks.