Operational Intelligence Briefing: Ukraine Focus (Updated as of Mon Jun 02 01:46:27 2025)

Major Updates

• Ukrainian Deep Strike Operations - "Web" Operation (Escalating Impact & Russian Scrutiny & Verified Presidential Statement & Renewed Strikes & US Intelligence Denial):
  • President Zelenskyy has released a video emphasizing the "absolutely brilliant result" and "independent result of Ukraine" regarding "Operation Web," confirming a 1.5-year planning period and the timely extraction of Ukrainian personnel from Russian territory. He explicitly states, "this is Ukrainian actions, which will definitely be in history textbooks," and that Ukraine is acting "quite rightly" to make Russia "feel the need to end this war." He further specifies that the "office" for the operation was located "directly next to FSB headquarters in one of Russia's regions." This significantly reinforces the strategic importance and psychological impact of the deep strikes and adds a layer of audacity to the confirmed planning and execution. (Zelenskiy / Official, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
  • Ukrainian source "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" now estimates the approximate cost of damaged Russian strategic aviation from "Operation Web" at $7 billion USD. This is a substantial increase from previous estimates and, if accurate, represents a significant material blow.
  • Russian milbloggers "Fighterbomber" and "Alex Parker Returns" are actively discussing the lack of hardened shelters for Russian strategic aviation, attributing it to obligations under the now-defunct START III treaty. They highlight the "disgrace" of unique, irreplaceable bombers being left in the open. This indicates a growing internal Russian debate and criticism regarding strategic asset protection and command failures. (Fighterbomber, Alex Parker Returns, Два майора)
  • Reports from "ASTRA" indicate Russian security forces are conducting searches of a warehouse in Chelyabinsk Oblast, suspecting it was used for assembling drones for airfield attacks. Ukrainian channels (ASTRA) are drawing a connection to a warehouse previously identified in a Ukrainian intelligence publication as potentially being involved in "fura" drone assembly. This suggests active Russian counter-intelligence efforts and a potential lead on the "Web" operation's logistical footprint.
  • New reports of a massive drone attack on Lipetsk airfield are emerging from Ukrainian sources (STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ), with Lipetsk authorities (Игорь Артамонов) declaring a "red level" drone threat. This indicates the deep strike campaign is ongoing and potentially expanding its targets.
  • New video intelligence from "Оперативний ЗСУ" with the caption "На Курщині дрони також несуть свою добру та світлу місію" and the visible text "TELEGRAM ТИПИЧНЫЙ КУРСК" indicates sustained drone activity over Kursk Oblast, consistent with a continued deep strike campaign or reconnaissance. (Оперативний ЗСУ) New video from "Оперативний ЗСУ" shows flashes and explosions in Kursk, attributed to "Cotton" (explosions). (Оперативний ЗСУ) RBC-Ukraine also reports drone attacks in Kursk with accompanying video evidence. (РБК-Україна)
  • "STERNENKO" reinforces the narrative of drone safety issues in Russian border regions, stating "Також дронова безпека у прикордонних областях так званої росії." (STERNENKO) New media from STERNENKO further confirms explosions in Kursk, Ryazan, and Lipetsk, including video evidence of urban explosions and alarm from residents in Kursk ("It hit the house!"). (STERNENKO)
  • "Оперативний ЗСУ" drew a historical parallel, stating, "1 червня 1996 року Україна віддала кацапам стратегічні бомбардувальники. Рівно через 29 років, 1 червня 2025 року, Україна забрала у кацапні частину стратегічних бомбардувальників." (On June 1, 1996, Ukraine gave strategic bombers to the Katsaps. Exactly 29 years later, on June 1, 2025, Ukraine took part of the strategic bombers from the Katsaps.) This signifies a deliberate narrative of historical reclamation and strategic reciprocity. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
  • New reports from "Оперативний ЗСУ" indicate drone activity over Voronezh ("Воронєж також отримує промені добра") and explosions in Rostov-on-Don ("Ростов. Планова перевірка функціоналу автомобільних сигналізацій"), suggesting a further expansion of deep strike geographic reach and potential targets beyond military airfields. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
  • New reports of at least 5 explosions in Ryazan from "Оперативний ЗСУ" further indicates the broad geographic scope of deep strikes. (Оперативний ЗСУ) RBC-Ukraine reports explosions in Lipetsk and Voronezh regions. (РБК-Україна) "Оперативний ЗСУ" also reports bright activity in Kursk and "good drones" meeting Moscow, suggesting drone activity reaching the capital region. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
  • The governor of Ryazan reports damage to cars and windows in several houses due to falling UAV debris, confirming impact beyond military targets. (ТАСС) Colonelcassad reports damage to cars and broken windows in Ryazan due to repelled drone attacks and an additional UAV falling in Lebedyan, Lipetsk Oblast. (Colonelcassad) WarGonzo also reports UAV attacks on Ryazan Oblast. (WarGonzo)
  • Ukrainian source "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" has released a video report from the "Birds of Magyar, Eyes and Sting" unit (414th Separate Unmanned Aircraft Systems Brigade) showcasing military operations from May 2025, highlighting Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance and strike capabilities. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
  • CBS White House correspondent Jennifer Jacobs, citing her own sources, stated that the United States did not provide Ukraine with intelligence for the drone attack on Russia. (ТАСС) This aims to distance the US from direct involvement, potentially mitigating escalation risks or countering Russian claims of US orchestration.
  • Ukrainian Air Force is providing ongoing updates regarding enemy UAV movement. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
• Russian Response to Deep Strikes (Intensified Air Defense & Propaganda & Poland Elections):
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense reports intercepting and destroying 53 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions within 1.5 hours, with the majority (53) over Kursk Oblast. This reflects a significant Russian air defense response to the deep strikes. Additionally, four UAVs were destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Два майора, AV БогомаZ) Colonelcassad now reports that over 60 drones have been shot down across 4-5 oblasts, indicating an even broader air defense response. (Colonelcassad)
  • The acting governor of Kursk confirmed that the air defense system repelled a UAV attack over Kursk. (ТАСС) Colonelcassad reports a drone fell on the roof of a high-rise building during the repel of a UAV attack in Kursk, accompanied by visual evidence of damage. (Colonelcassad)
  • Elon Musk's tweet, "Drones are the future of warfare. Manned aircraft are not," is being circulated by Russian sources (Alex Parker Returns) in the context of the Ukrainian deep strikes, potentially to underscore the vulnerability of traditional aviation and justify shifts in military doctrine or investment.
  • Russian milblogger "Рыбарь" (Rybar) published an analytical piece titled "Налёты БЛА: привычный способ давления" (UAV Raids: A Common Method of Pressure), which acknowledges UAV attacks as a 'common' tactic, suggesting a potential normalization of such incidents within Russian discourse. (Рыбарь) Rybar has now published a summary of events for May 31 - June 1, likely continuing his analytical efforts. (Рыбарь) Rybar also published a message titled "Threat from the Arctic to Kamchatka," indicating a broader assessment of vulnerabilities or threats. (Рыбарь)
  • Russian milblogger "НгП раZVедка" attempts to dismiss the impact of Ukrainian deep strikes, claiming "Для Украины ничего не изменилось, ее как уничтожали медленно, без военных преступлений и геноцида, решая украинский вопрос, так и продолжат." (For Ukraine, nothing has changed; it was slowly destroyed, without war crimes and genocide, resolving the Ukrainian question, and so it will continue.) This indicates an effort to downplay Ukrainian success for domestic consumption. (НгП раZVедка) "НгП раZVедка" explicitly acknowledges continued Ukrainian drone launches into Russian cities, signaling ongoing concern. (НгП раZVедка) "НгП раZVедка" questions the whereabouts of "Oreshnik" (possibly a reference to a Russian defensive system or a specific drone type), indicating internal concerns about counter-drone capabilities. (НгП раZVедка)
  • Rybar published a photo message with the caption "📝«Нас подставили!»📝" suggesting internal discontent or blame-shifting regarding recent events. (Рыбарь)
• Negotiations in Istanbul: Continued Confirmation and Russian Sentiment:
  • Both Ukrainian (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) and Russian (Alex Parker Returns) sources confirm that negotiations will proceed despite the deep strikes and railway sabotage. Russian negotiator Medinsky reportedly arrived in Istanbul with a "good mood," suggesting a facade of composure amidst internal pressure. Medinsky has now confirmed that Russia has received Ukraine's draft memorandum for conflict settlement. (ТАСС)
  • Russian TASS news agency states that Russia will "not publish its draft memorandum on Ukrainian settlement," indicating a desire for secrecy and control over the diplomatic narrative, potentially to prevent internal dissent or external pressure on their negotiating position.
  • A new report from TASS, citing an anonymous source in the Russian delegation, states that they maintain a "working mood" in Istanbul "regardless of what is happening in the background." This reinforces the public facade of composure and commitment to the diplomatic track despite military escalations. (TASS)
  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov held a phone conversation with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to discuss the "crisis" in Ukraine. Rubio expressed condolences for the victims of the railway infrastructure attacks in Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts, as reported by the Russian Foreign Ministry and corroborated by "Colonelcassad." This indicates a continued diplomatic channel between Russia and the US at a high level. TASS further reports that Lavrov and Rubio discussed plans to resume direct Russian-Ukrainian negotiations in Istanbul on June 2nd. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Colonelcassad, Операция Z) RBC-Україна also reported on Lavrov's conversation with Rubio. (РБК-Україна) Rubio reportedly repeated Trump's call for direct Russia-Ukraine negotiations to resolve the conflict. (ТАСС)
  • TASS confirms that delegations of Russia and Ukraine will hold the second round of direct talks in Istanbul on June 2nd, starting at 13:00 at the Ciragan Palace. (ТАСС)
  • The Russian Foreign Ministry stated that Russia is conducting a thorough investigation into the railway explosions in Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts, and the results will be released soon. (ТАСС)
• Russian Offensive Pressure (DeepState Confirmation & Rybar Updates):
  • Ukrainian source ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports a 19% increase in Russian assault efforts in May 2025 compared to the previous month. This signifies a significant intensification of ground operations and offensive pressure across the front.
  • Russian sources, including "Воин DV," continue to release footage and claims of "liberation" in Novopol, indicating sustained ground operations and a focus on solidifying claimed territorial gains. (Воин DV)
  • Rybar has published updated military situation maps for May 31 - June 1, 2025, covering the "special military operation zone," "Russian Borderland," and "Konstantinovka direction," indicating ongoing Russian assessment and operational planning. (Рыбарь)
  • "Военкор Котенок" also provides updates on the "Dnipropetrovsk direction." (Военкор Котенок)
  • Colonelcassad released a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian tank, armored personnel carrier, 82-mm mortar, and personnel by FPV drones of the 25th Combined Arms Army of the "West" group of forces. (Colonelcassad) "Операция Z" published video from Russian SpN "Anvar" units claiming destruction of enemy basing points and equipment, supporting offensive in the border region. (Операция Z) Colonelcassad published "Exclusive footage of the cleansing of the buffer zone in Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv regions by the "Anvar" detachment," which features three instances of military operations against Ukrainian forces. This confirms continued Russian efforts to establish and secure a "buffer zone" in the border regions. (Colonelcassad)
  • Colonelcassad released a video showing Russian drone operators destroying enemy infantry. (Colonelcassad)
• Russian Internal Discussion on Non-Nuclear Escalation:
  • Russian milblogger "Рыбарь" (Rybar) posed a question: "❓ Какие конкретные шаги могла бы предпринять Россия, не доводя текущую ситуацию до ядерной эскалации?" (What concrete steps could Russia take without bringing the current situation to nuclear escalation?) This indicates a growing internal discussion within Russia about conventional escalation options short of nuclear warfare, possibly as a response to Ukrainian deep strikes and perceived vulnerabilities. (Рыбарь)
• Polish Elections: Exit polls in Poland show Rafał Trzaskowski leading with 50.3%, but Karol Nawrocki does not concede defeat. This external political development is noted by Ukrainian sources (Оперативний ЗСУ, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS), reflecting ongoing geopolitical awareness. TASS reports that updated exit poll results indicate the victory of opposition candidate Nawrocki in the second round of Polish presidential elections. (ТАСС) RBC-Ukraine published photo messages about Polish election results, showing early leader figures. (РБК-Україна) Updated reports, after nearly 90% of votes processed, indicate that Karol Nawrocki, candidate from the "Law and Justice" party, will become the President of Poland. (РБК-Україна)
• Ukrainian Mobilization Discussion - Russian Propaganda:
  • "Операция Z" is disseminating content from "Военкоры Русской Весны" claiming a Kharkiv deputy proposed public executions of draft evaders ("Розстріляти показово десяток ухилянтів приваблива ідея."). This is likely a Russian propaganda effort to demonize Ukrainian authorities and create internal dissent. (Операция Z)
• New Russian Iskander Strike Claims:
  • Colonelcassad released video purportedly showing an Iskander missile strike on a tent camp of the Ukrainian 158th and 33rd Separate Mechanized Brigades at the "Novomoskovsk" training ground in the Dnipropetrovsk region. This follows previous reports of a strike on a training unit in Kharkiv and, if verified, indicates a persistent Russian focus on degrading Ukrainian force generation. (Colonelcassad)
• Russian Space Launches:
  • TASS reports that the launch of the manned Soyuz MS-28 from Baikonur is scheduled for late November, with other launches expected in July, September, November, and December. While not directly conflict-related, this indicates ongoing Russian space activity and a commitment to their space program despite the war. (ТАСС)
• Russian Internal Affairs Recruitment Drive:
  • The Ministry of Internal Affairs in Khabarovsk Krai has opened a "hotline" for recruitment into internal affairs bodies. (Полиция Хабаровского края) This indicates an ongoing effort to bolster internal security forces, potentially due to personnel needs exacerbated by the war or increased internal security demands.
• Russian Internal Policy Discussion:
  • The Russian State Duma proposed softening restrictions on tinted side windows for cars. (ТАСС) This is a minor domestic policy discussion, unlikely to have direct military impact.
  • TASS reports that the State Duma is preparing a bill to revive "income houses" in Russia, citing historical precedents where such housing generated significant municipal budget revenue. This indicates a focus on domestic economic development and housing policy. (ТАСС)
  • TASS reports that four additional debt recovery cases have been opened against former Senator Spiegel, who was convicted of bribing former Penza region governor Belozertsev. This is an internal legal matter with no direct military relevance. (ТАСС)
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense has filed two lawsuits against "Voentorg" for 134,000 rubles, in addition to existing claims, amidst an embezzlement investigation against its head. This highlights internal corruption issues within military supply chains. (ТАСС)
  • TASS reports that a defendant in a 1 billion ruble embezzlement case, Frank, has pleaded guilty. This indicates ongoing efforts to address corruption within Russian state-affiliated enterprises. (ТАСС)

Ground Operations and Frontline Dynamics

• Russian Railway Infrastructure (Continued Clearing & Official Casualties & Deliberate Destruction): New photo and text messages from TASS and "Военкор Котенок" confirm the continued clearing of railway tracks and debris in Bryansk Oblast. This reinforces Russia's rapid response to infrastructure damage, despite official labeling of incidents as "terrorist acts." Ukrainian source "Оперативний ЗСУ" released photos with the caption "Стан мосту в Брянській області після його підриву російською владою" (Condition of the bridge in Bryansk Oblast after its undermining by Russian authorities), suggesting a deliberate destruction by Russian forces (possibly to prevent further use or remove compromised sections). (ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, Оперативний ЗСУ, Colonelcassad)
  • TASS reports that the Vygonichi-Pilshino section in Bryansk Oblast is now open for traffic. (ТАСС)
  • Russian sources, including TASS and ASTRA, confirm a fatal civilian casualty in the village of Proletarsky in Belgorod Oblast due to a projectile hitting a private house, with a child also injured. This is attributed to a Ukrainian drone attack by ASTRA. This incident will be heavily exploited by Russian propaganda. (ТАСС, ASTRA)
  • Russian military channels "Два майора" continue to solicit donations for reconnaissance units operating in the Kherson direction, indicating ongoing logistical needs and a sustained focus on this sector. (Два майора)
  • "Операция Z" claims that "the enemy is again trying to break through to Moscow," suggesting heightened Russian anxiety about deep strikes and border incursions. (Операция Z)
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports repeated launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) into Donetsk Oblast, indicating sustained Russian air-to-ground pressure on this front. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) The Ukrainian Air Force also issued a missile danger warning for Donetsk Oblast and Synelnykivskyi district in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating ongoing missile threats in these areas. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) This missile danger warning has now been lifted for Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
  • New intelligence indicates ongoing Russian KAB launches into Sumy Oblast. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) Colonelcassad released video of a precision FAB strike by Russian Aerospace Forces on a temporary deployment point (PVD) in Sumy Oblast. (Colonelcassad) New warnings from the Ukrainian Air Force indicate repeated launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) into Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
  • Russian military channels ("Дневник Десантника🇷🇺") continue to disseminate content related to "airborne brotherhood" and military unity, aimed at bolstering morale. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
  • "Colonelcassad" highlights continued humanitarian aid efforts in Moscow for the "Special Military Operation" and residents of "liberated territories," indicating ongoing societal support for the war effort. (Colonelcassad) Colonelcassad also published a series of photo messages with the caption "Moments of the SVO. Frontline everyday life," showcasing various scenes including soldiers near a helicopter, in a camouflaged position, a military patch, and a self-propelled artillery system. These contribute to the narrative of ongoing combat and the professionalism of Russian forces. (Colonelcassad)
  • Oleh Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, reports that Kharkiv is under enemy UAV attack, with powerful explosions in the Shevchenkivskyi district. (Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА) RBC-Ukraine corroborates explosions in Kharkiv. (РБК-Україна) New reports from Kharkiv indicate hits in the Kholodnohirskyi district, with a fire on site, and damage to a civilian enterprise building, several private homes, and vehicles from drone attacks. (РБК-Україна, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА)
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) by enemy tactical aviation into northern Kharkiv Oblast. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна)

Aerial & Naval Activity

• Ukrainian Deep Operations (Operational Responsibility & Impact & Expanding Reach): Zelenskyy's recent address and the SBU's "Operation Web" have further solidified Ukraine's public claim of responsibility for the strategic airfield attacks. The staggering $7 billion USD damage estimate (if credible) aims to project a significant impact. The potential drone attack on Lipetsk airfield suggests sustained targeting of Russian air assets. The historical narrative presented by "Оперативний ЗСУ" reinforces the symbolic and strategic intent behind these attacks. New reports of drone activity over Voronezh and explosions in Rostov-on-Don further suggest a broadening of Ukrainian deep strike geographic reach and target categories, aiming to maintain pressure on Russian internal security and infrastructure. New reports of explosions in Ryazan, Kursk, Lipetsk, and Voronezh indicate continued and geographically dispersed deep strikes against Russia. Reports of drone activity over Moscow further expand the scope of Ukrainian deep strikes, signaling a direct threat to the Russian capital. Damage to cars and windows in Ryazan due to falling drone debris further confirms the civilian impact of these strikes. The US denial of providing intelligence for these attacks (via TASS) is a key external development.
• Russian Air Activity (Intensified Air Defense & New Missile Threats): The reported interception of 53 UAVs over Kursk and Bryansk oblasts demonstrates Russia's heightened state of air defense readiness and increased activity in response to the deep strikes. "Рыбарь"'s assessment of UAV raids as a "common method of pressure" indicates Russian efforts to mentally normalize these attacks while seeking non-nuclear escalation responses. ASTRA's image analysis confirms Russia undertook its largest ever drone attack on Ukraine, reinforcing the scale of Russian aerial assaults. Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy UAV activity in northern Kharkiv, near Kharkiv, northern Chernihiv (near Horodnia, Ripky), and Sumy regions, with air defense engaged. A Russian reconnaissance UAV has been detected west of Chernihiv, with air defense assets engaged. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна) Missile danger has been declared for Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts. This missile danger has now been lifted for Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна) The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a threat of enemy drone application in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) New warnings from the Ukrainian Air Force indicate a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast, with specific reports of enemy UAVs moving from northern Sumy Oblast towards Chernihiv Oblast. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна) Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy UAV activity in northern Sumy and Chernihiv regions, moving south-southwest. This indicates ongoing Russian drone activity targeting these regions. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) The Ukrainian Air Force has issued a warning of a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast, and specifically for the city of Kharkiv. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
  • New reports indicate missile threats for Chernihiv Oblast and Kyiv Oblast, with Kyiv city air defense active. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), РБК-Україна) A cruise missile was reported west of Nizhyn, heading towards Hostomel, and subsequently confirmed to be neutralized. (Николаевский Ванёк) Air raid sirens in Kyiv have been lifted. (КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), РБК-Україна) The Ukrainian Air Force is providing information regarding enemy UAV movement. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) New warnings from the Ukrainian Air Force indicate a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Kyiv and Poltava Oblasts. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна) The Ukrainian Air Force also reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Kherson Oblast. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) "Николаевский Ванёк" reports drone activity over central Kherson moving towards Chornobaivka and subsequently towards Nadiivka, with initial reports of drone neutralization over Kherson. "Николаевский Ванёк" also provides an update on remaining Russian "mopeds" (UAVs). (Николаевский Ванёк) The Ukrainian Air Force confirms ongoing information updates regarding enemy UAV movement. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) A new air alarm has been declared in Kyiv due to the threat of ballistic weapons. (КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), РБК-Україна) The Ukrainian Air Force warns of ballistic threat in a number of regions. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна)

Strategic Projections

The most critical development is the intensified and public affirmation of Ukraine's responsibility for the "Web" deep strike operations, with Zelenskyy's direct address emphasizing their historical significance and the strategic intent to compel Russia to end the war. His specific mention of the operation's "office" being "directly next to FSB headquarters" highlights the audacious nature of the planning and execution. The staggering $7 billion USD damage estimate (if credible) further elevates the perceived impact of these operations. This confident and aggressive posture from Ukraine directly challenges Russia's internal security and strategic capabilities. The continued drone activity over Kursk Oblast, as per new intelligence, along with new reports of activity over Voronezh, Rostov-on-Don, Lipetsk, Ryazan, and potentially Moscow, underscores the sustained and geographically expanding nature of this deep strike campaign, further stretching Russian air defenses and demonstrating the ability to target high-value political and economic centers. The confirmed civilian damage in Ryazan from falling drone debris will add to the internal pressure on Russia. The newly released video report from the "Birds of Magyar" unit further showcases Ukraine's sophisticated aerial reconnaissance and strike capabilities, reinforcing the tactical and strategic depth of these operations. The US denial of intelligence provision for these attacks, as reported by TASS, indicates an attempt by the US to manage perceptions and potentially de-escalate tensions by demonstrating non-direct involvement.

The internal Russian debate and criticism among milbloggers regarding the lack of hardened shelters for strategic bombers is a significant indicator of vulnerability and potential dissatisfaction within the military-patriotic community. This pressure, combined with ongoing counter-intelligence operations (Chelyabinsk warehouse search) and intensified air defense responses (over 60 drones shot down across 4-5 oblasts), suggests Russia is being forced to adapt its defensive posture and potentially re-evaluate its asset protection strategies. The internal Russian discussion on "non-nuclear escalation" strategies, as seen from Rybar's query and his "us being set up" photo message, suggests that Ukraine's deep strikes are forcing Russia to consider a broader range of conventional responses and potentially leading to internal blame games. Russia's continued acknowledgment of Ukrainian drone activity over its cities by "НгП раZVедка" underscores the persistent threat and internal concern, further highlighted by "НгП раZVедка"'s questioning the effectiveness of Russian defensive systems like "Oreshnik." Rybar's new message "Threat from the Arctic to Kamchatka" suggests a broadening of Russia's perception of strategic vulnerability beyond immediate border regions. The recruitment drive for internal affairs in Khabarovsk Krai could be a response to perceived internal security challenges or a broader need for personnel. The proposed legislation for "income houses" in Russia indicates a focus on domestic economic stability and housing, though its direct military relevance is low. The reported lawsuits against "Voentorg" by the Russian MoD, amid embezzlement charges, highlight potential systemic corruption affecting military procurement and supply, which could impact Russia's overall war effort. The guilty plea in the RZD embezzlement case further highlights ongoing efforts to address corruption within state-affiliated entities. The Russian Ministry of Defense is now demanding over 45 million rubles from Russian Railways (RZD) in new lawsuits, indicating further internal legal and financial issues related to transportation and logistics.

The confirmation that Istanbul negotiations will proceed as scheduled on June 2nd despite the deep strikes suggests Russia is committed to maintaining a diplomatic channel, but its refusal to publish its memorandum indicates a desire to control the narrative and likely present non-negotiable terms. The Russian delegation's public "working mood" despite events reinforces this. The high-level US-Russia diplomatic contact, including Rubio's condolences for railway victims and discussion of upcoming Istanbul talks, further emphasizes the sensitive geopolitical context and the international recognition of the railway incidents as acts of sabotage. Rubio's reiteration of Trump's call for direct negotiations suggests a continued US push for a diplomatic resolution. The Russian Foreign Ministry's pledge to release investigation results on these incidents indicates an intent to solidify their "terrorist act" narrative. The simultaneous 19% increase in Russian assault efforts in May, as confirmed by DeepState, highlights that this diplomatic track is operating in parallel with, and possibly overshadowed by, an escalating ground war. This creates a highly complex and potentially contradictory environment for the upcoming talks, where military pressure may be used to influence diplomatic outcomes. Russia's repeated Iskander strikes, including a newly claimed one on a Ukrainian training camp in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicate a consistent focus on degrading Ukrainian force generation capabilities, even as diplomatic efforts unfold. Colonelcassad's video detailing "cleansing operations" in the Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv border regions underscores Russia's intent to establish and secure a buffer zone, indicating a shift in tactical priorities in these areas beyond simple cross-border shelling. Ongoing Russian drone activities to destroy Ukrainian infantry indicate continued focus on ground attrition.

The emerging reports of drone attacks on Lipetsk airfield, Voronezh, Ryazan, Rostov-on-Don, and potentially Moscow indicate a broadening of Ukraine's deep strike geographical reach and target categories, maintaining pressure on Russian air assets and internal security beyond the initial concentration of strategic bomber bases. This continuous threat will further strain Russian air defenses and force costly defensive adaptations. The confirmed civilian fatality in Belgorod due to a Ukrainian drone attack will be heavily leveraged by Russian propaganda to frame Ukraine as a "terrorist state," potentially justifying further indiscriminate retaliatory strikes. The Ukrainian claim of Russian authorities "undermining" a bridge in Bryansk (following the initial sabotage) suggests a reactive measure to control damaged infrastructure, further complicating Russia's logistical response. The Russian propaganda concerning "public executions of draft evaders" is a transparent attempt to sow discord and dehumanize Ukrainian efforts, which requires robust counter-narratives. The updated Polish election results, showing a victory for the opposition candidate Nawrocki, could have implications for Poland's stance on aid to Ukraine, though immediate shifts are unlikely. The new missile threats against Chernihiv and Kyiv Oblasts, including Kyiv city, signify continued Russian aerial pressure against critical population centers and military infrastructure, even as one missile was reportedly neutralized. The ongoing Russian use of KABs in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts continues to be a significant threat to Ukrainian ground forces and defensive positions. New drone threats in Kyiv, Poltava, and Kherson Oblasts indicate Russia's continued emphasis on aerial bombardment, stretching Ukrainian air defense resources further south. The current drone attack on Kharkiv, resulting in powerful explosions in the Shevchenkivskyi district and Kholodnohirskyi district, and civilian damage, highlights the immediate and persistent threat to civilian areas. The launch of KABs into northern Kharkiv further compounds the aerial threat.

Risk Assessment

• Extreme Russian Retaliation (Sustained High): Zelenskyy's continued public and defiant claims of responsibility, coupled with the estimated high cost of damage, the confirmed civilian fatality in Belgorod, the expansion of deep strike targets to cities like Voronezh, Ryazan, Rostov, and now potentially Moscow, and continued Iskander strikes on training facilities, maintain an extremely high risk of severe and widespread Russian retaliatory strikes against Ukraine. ASTRA's confirmation of Russia's largest drone attack on Ukraine highlights this immediate threat. The ongoing missile danger warnings for Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, and new drone warnings for Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv, further reinforce this. The new missile threats targeting Chernihiv and Kyiv Oblasts (including Kyiv city), and drone threats to Kyiv, Poltava, and Kherson, directly elevate the risk to central and southern Ukraine. The current drone attack on Kharkiv, including KAB launches, underscores the immediate nature of this risk to civilian and critical infrastructure.
• Degradation of Russian Strategic Air Assets (Increased): If the $7 billion damage estimate is accurate, and with ongoing attacks on facilities like Lipetsk, Ryazan and persistent drone activity in Kursk, Voronezh, and Rostov, Ukraine's deep strikes pose a substantial threat to Russia's strategic aviation and its ability to project air power.
• Escalated Internal Russian Criticism and Security Focus (High): The public discussion of inadequate bomber shelters, "Oreshnik" effectiveness, and active counter-intelligence operations in Russia suggest growing internal pressure on the Kremlin to address security vulnerabilities and accountability, potentially leading to purges or significant policy shifts. The open discussion on non-nuclear escalation options within Russia, alongside the "us being set up" sentiment and the broader "Threat from the Arctic to Kamchatka" message, signifies a heightened internal strategic debate and potential for fragmentation. The direct damage to civilian property in Ryazan further exacerbates this internal pressure. The recruitment drive for internal affairs also signals increased focus on internal security. The reported corruption issues within "Voentorg" and the guilty plea in the RZD embezzlement case indicate potential systemic weaknesses impacting military readiness and internal morale. New lawsuits against RZD from the Russian MoD further illustrate systemic financial and logistical issues.
• Diplomatic Talks as a Strategic Façade (High): Russia's decision not to publish its memorandum, combined with intensified ground assaults and a public "working mood," reinforces the risk that the Istanbul negotiations will be used more as a platform for an ultimatum or propaganda than for genuine de-escalation. The high-level US-Russia contact, including the US denial of intelligence provision, may temper outright Russian rejection, but core positions are unlikely to shift quickly. The receipt of Ukraine's draft memorandum by Russia may indicate an initial framework for discussion, but its content is crucial.
• Strain on Russian Air Defense and Resource Allocation (High): The sheer volume and expanding geography of recent deep strikes, including new targets like Lipetsk, Voronezh, Ryazan, Rostov, and potentially Moscow, and consistent activity in Kursk, is forcing Russia to commit significant air defense resources across a vast territory, potentially creating new vulnerabilities elsewhere. The reported downing of over 60 drones across multiple oblasts confirms the scale of this strain.
• Sustained Ground Pressure (High): The reported 19% increase in Russian ground assaults requires continuous assessment of frontline vulnerabilities and strategic allocation of reserves to critical sectors. Continued KAB attacks on Donetsk and Sumy, and missile/drone threats in other regions require robust defensive measures. Russian efforts to target training grounds must be countered with enhanced force protection and dispersal. The demonstrated "cleansing operations" in border regions suggest a more entrenched Russian presence that requires dedicated counter-measures. The ongoing destruction of Ukrainian infantry by Russian drone operators indicates continued direct tactical pressure.
• Russian Information Warfare Escalation (High): The confirmed civilian casualty in Belgorod due to a Ukrainian drone attack will be a significant new element in Russia's narrative, amplifying accusations of "terrorism" and potentially mobilizing internal support for harsher measures against Ukraine. The Russian Foreign Ministry's intent to release investigation results on railway incidents will further solidify this narrative. Russian attempts to downplay Ukrainian successes and the new propaganda about executing Ukrainian draft evaders also indicate a hardening information front.

Resource Allocation Considerations

• Prioritize Multi-Layered Air Defense and Anti-Drone Capabilities: Given the continued high risk of Russian retaliation (evidenced by their record-setting drone attacks and renewed missile and drone threats in key regions, including Kyiv, Poltava, Kherson, and Kharkiv) and the scale of their aerial attacks, resources must be heavily allocated to procuring, deploying, and maintaining air defense systems. Investment in advanced anti-drone technologies and EW countermeasures is critical.
• Sustain and Diversify Deep Strike Capabilities: The success and strategic impact of "Operation Web" necessitate continued investment in and diversification of long-range strike capabilities. Focus on maintaining operational security and developing new launch methods and drone designs to adapt to Russian counter-measures, recognizing Russian efforts to normalize and counter these attacks. The expansion of targets to include cities like Voronezh, Ryazan, Rostov, and potentially Moscow requires careful ethical consideration while maintaining strategic pressure. The "Birds of Magyar" unit's operational report provides valuable insights into current capabilities and potential areas for enhancement.
• Aggressive Strategic Communications: Ukraine must continue to leverage its deep strike successes through clear, confident, and proactive communications to maintain domestic morale and international support, while directly countering Russian narratives, particularly those exploiting civilian casualties in Russia and false narratives about Ukrainian internal policies (e.g., draft evader executions). Zelenskyy's recent statement and the historical parallel drawn by "Оперативний ЗСУ" are strong examples. Counter narratives regarding US intelligence sharing are also critical.
• Intelligence Gathering on Russian Internal Dynamics: Intensify intelligence efforts to monitor Russian internal debates, criticism of leadership, and counter-intelligence operations (e.g., Chelyabinsk warehouse search, internal affairs recruitment). Analyze discussions around non-nuclear escalation options and internal blame-shifting (Rybar's "us being set up," "НгП раZVедка"'s "Oreshnik" query, Rybar's "Threat from the Arctic to Kamchatka"). Monitor the fallout from the "Voentorg" embezzlement case and the RZD fraud case for broader implications on military supply and internal stability, particularly given the new lawsuits against RZD. This information can inform future deep strike targeting and information warfare efforts.
• Reinforce Frontline Defenses and Reserve Management: The reported 19% increase in Russian ground assaults requires continuous assessment of frontline vulnerabilities and strategic allocation of reserves to critical sectors. Continued KAB attacks on Donetsk and Sumy, and missile/drone threats in other regions require robust defensive measures. Russian efforts to target training grounds must be countered with enhanced force protection and dispersal. The demonstrated "cleansing operations" in border regions suggest a more entrenched Russian presence that requires dedicated counter-measures.
• Strategic Approach to Diplomatic Engagements: While engaging in negotiations, Ukraine must maintain a firm and principled stance, prepared for Russian inflexibility and potential attempts to use the talks for propaganda. Leverage recent military successes to strengthen negotiating leverage. Monitor high-level diplomatic contacts (US-Russia) for underlying intentions and Russian narrative consolidation regarding sabotage. Analyze Ukraine's received memorandum carefully.
• Enhance Civilian Preparedness and Infrastructure Protection: Given the high probability of continued Russian strikes, efforts to protect critical civilian infrastructure and ensure public safety (e.g., shelters, early warning systems, evacuations) must be sustained and improved, especially in border regions and increasingly, deeper into Ukraine, including Kyiv and Kharkiv. This includes preparing for and managing civilian damage from falling drone debris.
• Exploit Russian Logistical Vulnerabilities: Continue to target Russian railway infrastructure and other logistical choke points. Analyze Russian responses to infrastructure damage, including their own demolition of compromised sections, to identify further vulnerabilities and logistical workarounds. The new lawsuits by the Russian MoD against RZD may indicate further internal logistical and financial vulnerabilities that could be exploited.
• Monitor Polish Political Developments: The updated Polish election results, showing a victory for the opposition candidate Nawrocki, require careful monitoring for implications on Poland's continued support for Ukraine, though immediate shifts are unlikely. Proactive engagement with the new Polish leadership will be necessary to ensure continued solidarity.