Archived operational intelligence briefing
Ukraine Confirms Deep Strike on Four Russian Strategic Airfields: Ukrainian sources (СБУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO) confirm simultaneous drone attacks on four key Russian strategic aviation airfields: Belaya Airbase (Irkutsk Oblast), Olenya Airbase (Murmansk Oblast), Dyagilevo Airbase (Ryazan Oblast), and Ivanovo Airbase (Ivanovo Oblast). Russian military bloggers (Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, Операция Z, Kotsnews, Fighterbomber, Два майора) largely corroborate these attacks, with governors of Irkutsk and Ryazan Oblasts confirming drone activity in their regions. This represents a significant escalation in the scope and coordination of Ukraine's deep strike capabilities, targeting Russia's long-range bomber fleet (Tu-95, Tu-22M3) and A-50 strategic reconnaissance aircraft.
Russian Missile Threat in Sumy Oblast: Ukrainian Air Force reports a missile threat in the western direction of Sumy Oblast, indicating continued Russian aerial activity.
Intensified Russian Air Defense Failure Criticism: Russian milbloggers are increasingly vocal in their criticism of the Russian military's failure to protect strategic aviation assets, directly mocking improvised defenses like tires and questioning the lack of proper hardened infrastructure and effective electronic warfare/air defense. This public criticism points to significant internal demoralization and institutional issues within the Russian armed forces.
Persistent Russian Rail Infrastructure Damage (Bryansk Oblast): TASS confirms that a bridge collapsed due to a train incident in Bryansk Oblast is beyond repair. This reinforces the previous intelligence regarding suspected sabotage operations affecting Russian logistics. The Dempster-Shafer beliefs support a sabotage operation (0.318512) as the leading hypothesis for the Bryansk incident.
Ukrainian Acknowledgment of De-militarization: Ukrainian sources (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ) explicitly state that the SBU's operation on the four airfields has allowed Russia to understand the "true meaning of 'demilitarization'," framing the strikes as part of Ukraine's strategic objective.
Chasiv Yar (Donetsk Oblast): Russian source Два майора provides a video detailing "growing pressure from the north" in Chasiv Yar, suggesting continued Russian offensive efforts in this critical sector.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Ukraine): Ukrainian Air Force reports a Russian reconnaissance UAV on the eastern outskirts of Zaporizhzhia city, which could be acting as a spotter for targeting. The Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration commemorates the 31st anniversary of the 15th Operational Purpose Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine "Kara-Dag," highlighting ongoing military activity and presence in the region.
Sumy Oblast (Ukraine): Ukrainian Air Force reports a missile threat in the western direction, indicating continued Russian targeting of the region following previous reports of Russian advances.
Zhytomyr Oblast (Ukraine): РБК-Україна reports that Zhytomyr Oblast suffered "one of the largest Russian attacks with attack drones and missiles" overnight, with photos showing residential buildings on fire. This indicates continued widespread and indiscriminate Russian aerial attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.
Kherson Oblast (Ukraine): The Office of the Prosecutor General reports one dead and several wounded as a result of Russian shelling in Kherson, indicating continued direct fire engagement and civilian casualties.
Ukrainian Deep Operations (Expanded):
Russian Aerial Activity:
The most significant development is the confirmed, simultaneous, multi-location Ukrainian deep strike operation targeting four key Russian strategic aviation airfields, expanding the geographical scope of previous strikes to include Dyagilevo (Ryazan Oblast) and Ivanovo (Ivanovo Oblast) in addition to Belaya (Irkutsk Oblast) and Olenya (Murmansk Oblast). This operation underscores a remarkable evolution in Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities, demonstrating not only extended reach but also enhanced coordination and innovative tactics, specifically the continued use of FPV drones launched from disguised civilian trucks. The direct acknowledgment by Russian governors and the widespread condemnation from military bloggers highlight the severity of the blow. The mocking of inadequate defenses like tires further indicates significant internal frustration and a breakdown of trust in military leadership. This operation directly impacts Russia's ability to project long-range conventional power and forces them to re-evaluate their strategic asset protection. The "Red level" drone danger in Engels also suggests widespread Russian fear of further attacks on other strategic airfields.
The explicit framing by Ukrainian sources of these strikes as part of "demilitarization" is a powerful information operation component, linking current operations directly to stated strategic objectives and further justifying Ukraine's actions.
The escalated criticism from Russian milbloggers regarding the lack of adequate airbase protection (hangars, advanced EW, mobile air defense) and the "tire" strategy indicates a deepening internal crisis of confidence within the Russian military and its public support base. This may lead to calls for punitive actions against commanders responsible for airfield security. Putin's reported upcoming meeting with the Security Council underscores the high-level concern and potential for a significant shift in Russian policy or retaliation.
The continued evidence of attacks on Russian railway infrastructure in Bryansk Oblast, which the Dempster-Shafer analysis attributes primarily to sabotage, suggests an ongoing Ukrainian effort to disrupt Russian logistics within Russian territory.
The record-setting Russian attacks on Zhytomyr Oblast with drones and missiles confirm an intensified Russian strategy of saturation attacks against Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure, likely in retaliation for previous deep strikes.
