Operational Intelligence Briefing: Ukraine Focus (Updated as of Thu May 29 11:34:50 2025)

Major Updates

Russian Ground Advances Confirmed in Kharkiv & Donetsk Oblasts: Russian MoD and associated military channels (TASS, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition) confirm the "liberation" of Stroyevka (Kharkiv Oblast), Gnatovka (Donetsk People's Republic), and Shevchenko Pervoye (Donetsk People's Republic). This corroborates and expands on previous reports, indicating continued Russian territorial gains, particularly in the Donetsk direction and a new confirmed advance in Kharkiv. Russian MOD states "West" units are pushing forward. TASS published drone footage claimed to be from "liberated Gnatovka" and "Stroyevka," showing significant damage. New visual evidence (Colonelcassad, Сливочный каприз, Операция Z) confirms drone footage of damaged buildings, aerial strikes, and Russian flags being raised in Stroyevka and Gnatovka, reinforcing the claims of Russian capture and the intensity of combat.
Ukrainian Counter-Intelligence Successes: FSB Informants Detained in Dnipro: The Prosecutor General's Office previously reported the detention of an FSB informant in Dnipro. "Оперативний ЗСУ" now reports the detention of a taxi driver who was an FSB agent correcting Russian strikes on Dnipro, indicating a continued and critical focus on neutralizing internal threats. This is a reinforcing development, detailing another specific case. TASS publishes video of suspects being detained, likely related to these counter-intelligence operations.
Russian Officer Involved in Mariupol Bombardments Eliminated in Stavropol: "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" and "КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno" report the elimination of Russian Major Zaur Gurtsiyev in Stavropol. Gurtsiyev was identified as an air traffic controller who directed bombardments of Mariupol and was previously awarded the Order of Courage. TASS later reported a man died in Stavropol with Gurtsiyev, confirming a "Ставрополе" explosion. This points to a successful Ukrainian deep strike or special operation targeting a high-value military individual within Russia. Further Russian sources (Alex Parker Returns, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА) confirm Gurtsiyev's death and amplify a narrative suggesting the use of a "live bait" ("suicide bomber Nikita" posing as homosexual) to lure Gurtsiyev. This implies a complex, possibly honeytrap-style, operation, and represents a significant psychological warfare effort by Russian sources to discredit the operation's methods and the targeted individual. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reinforces the Russian narrative, specifically naming Zaur Gurtziev as "First Deputy Mayor of Stavropol" and Nikita Penkov as the "live bait," confirming the widespread dissemination of this particular Russian disinformation campaign regarding the circumstances of the elimination.
Russia Deploys New "Dan-M" Strike UAV: "Оперативний ЗСУ" and "Операция Z" report that Russia attacked with a new type of strike jet UAV, the "Dan-M". Visuals of a carrier aircraft with a smaller jet-powered UAV/missile mounted on its back have been shared, suggesting the deployment of a new, potentially faster and longer-range, drone system. This is a significant technological development that requires immediate assessment for countermeasures.
Russian Attacks in Sumy Oblast Intensify: Myropillia Under Assault: "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports that Russian assault units have attempted to enter the outskirts of Myropillia in Sumy Oblast at least four times. Myropillia is less than a kilometer from the border with Kursk Oblast. This confirms sustained and aggressive Russian ground pressure in Sumy Oblast, underscoring the elevated threat level identified in previous reports. New video evidence (Два майора) from "Sumy direction" shows an explosion at a roadside checkpoint on May 27, 2025, confirming Russian military activity and targeting of Ukrainian positions in the region, further corroborating the intensified ground threat.
Ukraine's Mobilization Efforts: 99% of Limited-Fit Men Declared Fit: A member of the Ukrainian Parliament's Defense Committee, Venislavskyi (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS), states that 99% of men previously deemed "limited fit" are now found suitable for military service after re-evaluation. This indicates a significant effort to expand Ukraine's combat readiness and available manpower for mobilization. Venislavskyi also proposes an idea to not restrict men under 23-24 from traveling abroad. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reiterates the deadline for re-evaluation for "limited fit" citizens (until June 5, 2025), confirming the ongoing and critical nature of these mobilization efforts.
Continued Diplomatic Push for Negotiations by Russia; Ukraine's Stance Firm: "Операция Z" and Alex Parker Returns confirm that Russia has not yet received a response from Ukraine regarding its proposal for talks in Istanbul on June 2nd. TASS reports Erdogan hopes for continued Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul in June, indicating persistent diplomatic pressure. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS notes that Moscow will not hand over its "peace memorandum" to Washington, reinforcing Russia's control over its negotiating narrative and its direct channel approach with Ukraine, bypassing Washington. РБК-Україна reports Ukraine's MFA states Russia's "fear" of sending the memorandum indicates it is "full of unrealistic ultimatums," reinforcing Ukraine's firm rejection of current Russian terms and its counter-narrative.
Russia Considers Limiting Foreign Cloud Services: "Север.Реалии" reports that Russia's Ministry of Digital Development (Mintsifry) has allowed for the restriction of foreign cloud services if Russian alternatives exist. This indicates a move towards digital sovereignty and further information control within Russia, potentially impacting operational security for Ukrainian intelligence gathering.
Ramstein Meeting Confirmed for June 4th in Brussels: ASTRA confirms the next Ramstein meeting will take place on June 4th in Brussels. STERNENKO further confirms the meeting location as NATO Headquarters in Brussels, highlighting continued international coordination on military aid.
Russian Claims of Destroying Ukrainian Units: TASS claims Russian forces "practically destroyed one of the battalions of the 46th separate airborne brigade of the AFU," a significant claim of Ukrainian attrition if true.
Russian FPV Drone and Artillery Strikes Confirmed: "Воин DV" reports Russian artillery and FPV drone strikes by the 29th Guards Combined Arms Army overnight. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" and "Старше Эдды" share videos of drone strikes targeting "AFU personnel," reinforcing ongoing Russian FPV drone activity against Ukrainian forces. Colonelcassad also shares a video of drone engagements including mortar crews, armored vehicles, and communication antennas. "Воин DV" has published new video footage of Russian UAV operators from the 14th Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade of the "Vostok" group destroying a Ukrainian vehicle and armored vehicle near Shevchenko, confirming continued Russian tactical successes with UAVs.
Ukrainian Deep Strike on Tambov Powder Plant Confirmed: ASTRA reports that the Tambov Powder Plant, Russia's largest producer of gunpowder for small arms and artillery ammunition, was attacked by a UAV last night. This represents a highly significant Ukrainian deep strike targeting a critical component of Russia's military-industrial complex, directly impacting artillery and small arms production.
Germany to Invest €400 Million in Ukrainian Drone Production: "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports, citing Die Welt and German government sources, that Germany will invest €400 million in the purchase of Ukrainian "Bars" missile-drones, "Liutyi" strike drones, and "Flamingo" UAVs. This confirms a critical strategic shift towards supporting and investing in Ukraine's indigenous drone manufacturing capabilities, specifically for long-range strike systems, directly linking to the previously reported German long-range missile funding.

Ground Operations and Frontline Dynamics

Donetsk Oblast - Russian Gains Confirmed: Russian MoD and associated channels confirm the "liberation" of Gnatovka and Shevchenko Pervoye. This aligns with previous assessments of intense fighting and sustained Russian pressure in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad shares drone footage of target engagements in "Donbas" showing strikes on military and civilian targets, and armored vehicles. "Операция Z" posts video of Russian forces raising flags over "liberated" Gnatovka, visually confirming their control.
Kharkiv Oblast - Russian Gain Confirmed: Russian MoD and associated channels confirm the "liberation" of Stroyevka. TASS and Colonelcassad publish video of the "liberation of Stroyevka," depicting significant damage, burning buildings, and aerial strikes on military targets, including a damaged Humvee. This confirms continued Russian advances in the Kharkiv direction. Colonelcassad and Сливочный каприз provide additional drone footage from Stroyevka, showing destroyed buildings, fires, drone strikes on military vehicles and infantry, and Russian flags, further cementing the confirmation of Russian control and the intensity of combat for the settlement. Лисак (Dnipropetrovsk OVA) shares photos of Ukrainian "Khartiia" brigade visiting comrades on the Kharkiv direction, indicating continued Ukrainian defensive presence and operations in the area.
Sumy Oblast - Elevated Threat & Russian Ground Assaults: "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports at least four Russian assault attempts on the outskirts of Myropillia, less than 1 km from the border, indicating direct ground force engagements. This directly supports the previous assessment of a critically elevated operational risk to Sumy Oblast, beyond just precision strikes. "Два майора" posts images under "Soldier's Daily Life," potentially from the Sumy direction, though the content is restricted from analysis. "Два майора" shares new video evidence of an explosion at a roadside checkpoint in the "Sumy direction" on May 27, 2025, indicating direct engagement and targeting of Ukrainian positions near the border. "Два майора" also provides a map from the "Kursk direction, new successes in Sumy Oblast," likely indicating claimed Russian advances or areas of control.
Kursk Oblast (Russia) - Border Engagements: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares photos and a map from Kursk Oblast, showing a military vehicle on a dirt road and suggesting military activity, which aligns with previous reports of cross-border engagements and Ukrainian deep strikes into Kursk. "НгП раZVедка" reports on the situation in Kursk Oblast, indicating ongoing military activity and border tensions.

Aerial & Naval Activity

New Russian "Dan-M" Strike UAV: The reported deployment of the new "Dan-M" jet UAV by Russia is a critical development. Its jet propulsion suggests higher speed and potentially longer range than propeller-driven drones, complicating Ukrainian air defense. This requires urgent assessment and development of countermeasures.
Continued Russian Drone Activity: Russian sources continue to post videos of successful FPV drone and artillery strikes against Ukrainian personnel and equipment, highlighting the persistent and lethal threat posed by Russian UAVs. Colonelcassad's video shows varied drone targets, including communication infrastructure. Colonelcassad admits previous skepticism about the UAV situation in the Russian army, implying an increased appreciation or operational readiness regarding their own drone capabilities. New footage from "Воин DV" confirms Russian drone destruction of a Ukrainian vehicle and armored vehicle near Shevchenko, reinforcing ongoing tactical drone effectiveness.
Ukrainian Deep Strike on Russian Soil (Stavropol): The reported elimination of Russian Major Gurtsiyev in Stavropol due to an explosion suggests a successful and significant Ukrainian deep strike or special operation. This would represent a further escalation in Ukrainian capabilities to target high-value military individuals within Russia. New Russian sources (Alex Parker Returns, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА) confirm Gurtsiyev's death and propagate a highly unusual narrative about the alleged use of a "live bait" homosexual "suicide bomber" to lure Gurtsiyev. This indicates a concerted Russian information warfare effort to discredit the operation and victim-blame, rather than acknowledge Ukrainian deep strike capabilities directly. "Оперативний ЗСУ" has specifically named Zaur Gurtziev as "First Deputy Mayor of Stavropol" and Nikita Penkov as the "live bait" in the alleged "honeytrap" operation, solidifying the details of the Russian disinformation campaign.
Ukrainian Deep Strike on Tambov Powder Plant: ASTRA has confirmed a successful Ukrainian UAV attack on the Tambov Powder Plant, a critical Russian military-industrial facility. This marks a significant escalation in the targeting of Russian defense production capabilities.
Russian Air Force Claims: TASS claiming the near destruction of a Ukrainian airborne battalion (46th separate airborne brigade) suggests continued Russian efforts to degrade Ukrainian elite units.
Russian Airstrikes and Fires in Ukraine: Colonelcassad posts photos and videos of a large building fire at night in Kharkiv, showing Ukrainian SES response (Kharkiv and Vasyshcheve fire services visible). This likely indicates recent Russian shelling or missile strikes causing significant damage, underscoring the persistent threat to Ukrainian infrastructure. Colonelcassad has also shared an animated map detailing Russian strikes on Ukrainian territory from May 28-29, 2025, which includes missile strikes (Iskander, Kh-101/555), UAVs (Geran/Gerbera), and KABs, impacting Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. This visual confirmation underscores the breadth and persistence of Russian aerial attacks.

Humanitarian & Social Issues

Ukrainian POW Advocacy: The Coordination Headquarters for POWs held a meeting with families of service members from various brigades, demonstrating continued support for POW issues and their families. This is a reiteration of previous reporting.
Ukrainian Mobilization Efforts: The reported increase in men deemed fit for military service after re-evaluation (99% of limited-fit) reflects Ukraine's intensified mobilization efforts to address manpower needs. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reinforces the deadline for "limited fit" re-evaluation (June 5, 2025), highlighting the urgency and broad scope of this initiative.
Russian Internal Issues: The reported arrest of suspects for purchasing alcohol for teenagers in Baikalsk (Irkutsk Oblast) by TASS is a minor internal security incident, reflecting ongoing social issues. The potential restriction of foreign cloud services highlights Russia's increasing digital control and censorship. "REDACTED P6 (КОТËЛ #6)" reports on the potential arrest of a Moscow city minister (Alexey Nemeryuk) for corruption, suggesting internal power struggles and corruption within the Russian government, even at high levels. ASTRA reports a ban on Noize MC's song "Swan Lake Cooperative" in Russia, signaling increased cultural censorship. TASS reports that the Russian Supreme Court has ruled that a driver can leave an accident scene if necessary for other vehicles to pass, a minor legal development. TASS also notes the Russian Ministry of Transport is considering creating a registry of taxi drivers, indicating increased state control over this sector. "Новости Москвы" shared a video of Moscow Deputy Mayor Rakova giving her personal phone number to competition winners for ideas, which is a public relations initiative, not militarily relevant. "Новости Москвы" also reports subway closures in Moscow (May 31-June 1, June 7-8) due to maintenance, not military activity. "Север.Реалии" reports that enterprises in Vologda Oblast are mandated to employ participants of the war in Ukraine, indicating efforts to reintegrate veterans and potentially address labor shortages, but also social control.
Ukrainian Internal Issues: The Prosecutor General's Office completes an investigation against an ex-commander of the 211th Pontoon-Bridge Brigade for covering up abuse of soldiers, demonstrating continued efforts to address internal misconduct within the Ukrainian military. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" continues to investigate "fake general" imposters, indicating ongoing efforts to counter internal deception and maintain military integrity, and has posted photos/videos related to an alleged "successfully demobilized" individual, the content of which is assessed as not directly relevant to current military operations. РБК-Україна and КМВА report a US citizen documenting the war in Kyiv was injured by a falling balcony, highlighting infrastructure decay and accidental hazards, not enemy action. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" expresses cynicism about a "photo-op" involving Ukrainian military personnel, reflecting internal commentary on public relations efforts. "Операция Z" reports Ukraine withdrew from the World Judo Championship due to Belarusian team admission, highlighting continued Ukrainian stance against Russian and Belarusian participation in international sports.

Strategic Projections

The updated intelligence reaffirms the further intensification of Russian ground operations in Sumy Oblast, with confirmed direct assaults on border settlements, now supported by visual evidence of targeted Ukrainian positions. This necessitates an immediate re-evaluation of defensive priorities in Sumy, confirming it as a high-risk operational area. Simultaneously, confirmed Russian territorial gains continue in Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts, reinforcing the attritional nature of the conflict and Russia's persistent, albeit incremental, advances.

A critical new technological development is Russia's deployment of the "Dan-M" jet UAV. This system, potentially featuring higher speed and range, poses a new challenge for Ukrainian air defense and requires urgent intelligence gathering and the development of tailored countermeasures.

The reported elimination of Major Gurtsiyev in Stavropol is a significant intelligence victory for Ukraine, demonstrating continued capability to execute deep strikes or special operations against high-value targets within Russian territory. However, the subsequent Russian information warfare campaign to discredit the operation's methods and the individual targeted (through allegations of a "honeytrap" involving a "homosexual suicide bomber") is a critical development. This aggressive narrative aims to undermine Ukrainian successes and sow distrust, and requires a robust and strategic counter-narrative from Ukraine. The consistent amplification of this narrative by multiple Russian and even some Ukrainian sources ("Оперативний ЗСУ" detailing Gurtziev as "First Deputy Mayor" and naming Penkov) underscores its pervasive nature.

A highly significant development is the confirmed Ukrainian UAV attack on the Tambov Powder Plant, Russia's largest producer of gunpowder. This direct strike on a critical component of Russia's military-industrial complex indicates a qualitative escalation in Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities and strategic targeting, aiming to directly impact Russian ammunition production and logistics. This is further bolstered by the German commitment of €400 million to purchase Ukrainian "Bars," "Liutyi," and "Flamingo" drones, demonstrating substantial international investment in Ukraine's indigenous long-range strike capabilities.

On the diplomatic front, Russia continues its "negotiation" offensive, actively pushing for a June 2nd meeting in Istanbul and reiterating its terms. Ukraine's MFA's statement that Russia's reluctance to share its "memorandum" indicates "unrealistic ultimatums" demonstrates Kyiv's firm stance against negotiations on Russian terms and its strategic counter-narrative, bypassing Washington. The upcoming Ramstein meeting on June 4th in Brussels remains a crucial platform for Ukraine to secure continued international military aid and counter Russian diplomatic maneuvers.

Ukraine's intensified mobilization efforts, evidenced by the high percentage of "limited-fit" men now deemed suitable for service and the ongoing re-evaluation process, highlight a strategic commitment to strengthening manpower and addressing battlefield attrition. This is a vital internal development for sustaining the defense.

Risk Assessment

Operational Risk (Ukraine): Critically Elevated.
- Direct Ground Assaults in Sumy: The confirmed direct assaults on Myropillia in Sumy Oblast and visual evidence of targeted positions represent a significant escalation of ground risk, suggesting Russia is actively testing and probing Ukrainian defenses for a larger offensive. This validates the earlier assessment of a critically elevated threat to Sumy.
- Russian Territorial Gains: Continued confirmed gains in Kharkiv and Donetsk signal sustained Russian offensive momentum and the effectiveness of their attritional tactics.
- New "Dan-M" UAV Threat: The introduction of a new, potentially faster and longer-range, jet-powered strike UAV ("Dan-M") presents an immediate and significant technological risk, requiring rapid adaptation of air defense strategies and countermeasures.
- Persistent Airstrikes: Confirmed large fires in Kharkiv due to likely Russian strikes underscore the ongoing threat to civilian infrastructure and urban centers. Animated strike maps further illustrate the widespread nature of Russian aerial attacks.
Humanitarian Risk: Elevated. While no new specific civilian casualty reports were immediately updated, the ongoing Russian advances and the introduction of new strike UAVs maintain a high threat to civilian populations and infrastructure. Accidental civilian injuries, like the falling balcony in Kyiv, highlight non-military risks to residents.
Information Warfare & Geopolitical Risk: Elevated.
- Russian "Negotiation" Offensive & Narrative Control: Russia's persistent public push for negotiations on its terms, combined with Turkey's active mediation efforts, risks creating a perception of Ukrainian intransigence in the international community, which Ukraine must actively counter. Ukraine's MFA is effectively pushing back against this narrative, but constant vigilance is required.
- "Honeytrap" Narrative on Gurtsiyev Elimination: The rapid and unusual Russian narrative about Major Gurtsiyev's elimination attempting to discredit the operation and the individual raises significant information warfare concerns. This is a sophisticated psychological attack attempting to shift blame and control perceptions, and requires a strong, coordinated Ukrainian counter-narrative. Its widespread repetition (even by "Оперативний ЗСУ") indicates its effectiveness.
- Internal Russian Information Control: The potential restriction of foreign cloud services within Russia and the banning of songs indicate a deepening of information control, potentially complicating open-source intelligence gathering and independent reporting from Russia. Russia's efforts to mandate employment of war participants and control taxi registries suggest further societal control.
Technological Risk: High. The deployment of the "Dan-M" UAV by Russia signals an ongoing arms race in drone technology. Ukraine's successful targeting of a high-value Russian officer in Stavropol and, crucially, the Tambov Powder Plant, demonstrates advanced intelligence and strike capabilities. The German investment in Ukrainian long-range drones significantly increases Ukraine's technological advantage in strike capabilities, but also suggests Russia may seek to adapt its defense industry to decentralize or harden against such attacks.
Internal Governance & Integrity Risk (Ukraine): Elevated. Ongoing investigations into alleged military misconduct and "fake generals" suggest internal vulnerabilities that could impact military cohesion and public trust if not proactively addressed. Cynicism within Ukrainian channels about public relations efforts also needs to be managed.

Resource Allocation Considerations

Air Defense (Ukraine): Immediate priority must be given to assessing and developing countermeasures for the new "Dan-M" jet UAV. This includes analyzing its flight characteristics, targeting capabilities, and potential vulnerabilities. Continued focus on layered air defense in frontline and border regions, especially Sumy and Kharkiv, is paramount. The confirmed fires in Kharkiv necessitate continued allocation of resources for emergency response and recovery.
Ground Forces (Ukraine): Reinforce and bolster defenses in Sumy Oblast, specifically around Myropillia and other border settlements, to counter the intensified Russian ground assaults. Prioritize intelligence gathering on Russian force composition and intent in this direction. Continue to allocate reserves strategically to counter Russian advances in Kharkiv and Donetsk. The presence of the "Khartiia" brigade in Kharkiv indicates active defensive operations, and their resupply and support should be prioritized.
Strategic Communications (Ukraine):
- Maintain a clear and consistent narrative regarding negotiations, firmly rejecting Russian terms and publicly articulating Ukraine's conditions for a just and lasting peace. Leverage the MFA's proactive messaging regarding Russia's "unrealistic ultimatums."
- Immediately and aggressively counter the Russian "honeytrap" narrative surrounding Major Gurtsiyev's elimination. This requires a well-crafted, factual counter-narrative that highlights Ukraine's operational capabilities while exposing Russia's attempts at disinformation and moral degradation. Avoid validating the lurid details of the Russian narrative, even if they are widely reported.
- Proactively publicize and frame the successful strike on the Tambov Powder Plant as a strategic blow to Russia's war machine, demonstrating Ukraine's expanding capabilities and commitment to degrading Russia's military-industrial complex.
- Transparently communicate mobilization efforts and successes (e.g., the re-evaluation of "limited-fit" personnel) to both domestic and international audiences, emphasizing the necessity and fairness of these measures.
- Publicize and leverage the success of special operations and deep strikes (like the elimination of Major Gurtsiyev and the Tambov strike) to boost morale and demonstrate evolving capabilities, carefully managing the narrative to avoid validating Russian disinformation.
- Actively counter Russian propaganda regarding "negotiations" and any claims of Ukrainian military weakness. Address internal issues (like the pontoon-bridge brigade commander investigation and "fake generals") with transparency to maintain trust and morale.
Intelligence Gathering & Analysis: Intensify efforts to gather intelligence on the "Dan-M" UAV system, including its operational range, payload, and guidance systems. Continue to monitor and analyze Russian internal security measures and their impact on information flow and civil liberties, and pay close attention to internal Russian political struggles and corruption at high levels, as these can create vulnerabilities or opportunities. Monitor any potential impacts of the Tambov Powder Plant strike on Russian ammunition supply lines and production rates.
International Diplomacy: Leverage the upcoming Ramstein meeting on June 4th to secure additional air defense systems and capabilities specifically tailored to counter new Russian UAV threats. Critically, utilize the German investment of €400 million in Ukrainian drones as a model for further international partnerships in indigenous defense production. Continue to advocate for sustained military aid and political support from international partners. Emphasize the critical and escalating threat from the Sumy direction.

Situation Report