Operational Intelligence Briefing: Ukraine Focus (Updated as of Thu May 29 10:34:50 2025)

Major Updates

Russian Ground Advances Confirmed in Kharkiv & Donetsk Oblasts: Russian MoD and associated military channels (TASS, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition) confirm the "liberation" of Stroyevka (Kharkiv Oblast), Gnatovka (Donetsk People's Republic), and Shevchenko Pervoye (Donetsk People's Republic). This corroborates and expands on previous reports, indicating continued Russian territorial gains, particularly in the Donetsk direction and a new confirmed advance in Kharkiv. Russian MOD states "West" units are pushing forward. TASS published drone footage claimed to be from "liberated Gnatovka" and "Stroyevka," showing significant damage.
Ukrainian Counter-Intelligence Successes: FSB Informants Detained in Dnipro: The Prosecutor General's Office previously reported the detention of an FSB informant in Dnipro. "Оперативний ЗСУ" now reports the detention of a taxi driver who was an FSB agent correcting Russian strikes on Dnipro, indicating a continued and critical focus on neutralizing internal threats. This is a reinforcing development, detailing another specific case.
Russian Officer Involved in Mariupol Bombardments Eliminated in Stavropol: "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" and "КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno" report the elimination of Russian Major Zaur Gurtsiyev in Stavropol. Gurtsiyev was identified as an air traffic controller who directed bombardments of Mariupol and was previously awarded the Order of Courage. TASS later reported a man died in Stavropol with Gurtsiyev, confirming a "Ставрополе" explosion. This points to a successful Ukrainian deep strike or special operation targeting a high-value military individual within Russia.
Russia Deploys New "Dan-M" Strike UAV: "Оперативний ЗСУ" and "Операция Z" report that Russia attacked with a new type of strike jet UAV, the "Dan-M". Visuals of a carrier aircraft with a smaller jet-powered UAV/missile mounted on its back have been shared, suggesting the deployment of a new, potentially faster and longer-range, drone system. This is a significant technological development that requires immediate assessment for countermeasures.
Russian Attacks in Sumy Oblast Intensify: Myropillia Under Assault: "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports that Russian assault units have attempted to enter the outskirts of Myropillia in Sumy Oblast at least four times. Myropillia is less than a kilometer from the border with Kursk Oblast. This confirms sustained and aggressive Russian ground pressure in Sumy Oblast, underscoring the elevated threat level identified in previous reports.
Ukraine's Mobilization Efforts: 99% of Limited-Fit Men Declared Fit: A member of the Ukrainian Parliament's Defense Committee, Venislavskyi (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS), states that 99% of men previously deemed "limited fit" are now found suitable for military service after re-evaluation. This indicates a significant effort to expand Ukraine's combat readiness and available manpower for mobilization. Venislavskyi also proposes an idea to not restrict men under 23-24 from traveling abroad.
Continued Diplomatic Push for Negotiations by Russia; Ukraine's Stance Firm: "Операция Z" and Alex Parker Returns confirm that Russia has not yet received a response from Ukraine regarding its proposal for talks in Istanbul on June 2nd. TASS reports Erdogan hopes for continued Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul in June, indicating persistent diplomatic pressure. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS notes that Moscow will not hand over its "peace memorandum" to Washington, reinforcing Russia's control over its negotiating narrative and its direct channel approach with Ukraine, bypassing Washington.
Russia Considers Limiting Foreign Cloud Services: "Север.Реалии" reports that Russia's Ministry of Digital Development (Mintsifry) has allowed for the restriction of foreign cloud services if Russian alternatives exist. This indicates a move towards digital sovereignty and further information control within Russia, potentially impacting operational security for Ukrainian intelligence gathering.
Ramstein Meeting Confirmed for June 4th in Brussels: ASTRA confirms the next Ramstein meeting will take place on June 4th in Brussels. This reinforces previous reporting and signals continued international coordination on military aid.
Russian Claims of Destroying Ukrainian Units: TASS claims Russian forces "practically destroyed one of the battalions of the 46th separate airborne brigade of the AFU," a significant claim of Ukrainian attrition if true.
Russian FPV Drone and Artillery Strikes Confirmed: "Воин DV" reports Russian artillery and FPV drone strikes by the 29th Guards Combined Arms Army overnight. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" and "Старше Эдды" share videos of drone strikes targeting "AFU personnel," reinforcing ongoing Russian FPV drone activity against Ukrainian forces. Colonelcassad also shares a video of drone engagements including mortar crews, armored vehicles, and communication antennas.

Ground Operations and Frontline Dynamics

Donetsk Oblast - Russian Gains Confirmed: Russian MoD and associated channels confirm the "liberation" of Gnatovka and Shevchenko Pervoye. This aligns with previous assessments of intense fighting and sustained Russian pressure in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad shares drone footage of target engagements in "Donbas" showing strikes on military and civilian targets, and armored vehicles.
Kharkiv Oblast - Russian Gain Confirmed: Russian MoD and associated channels confirm the "liberation" of Stroyevka. TASS and Colonelcassad publish video of the "liberation of Stroyevka," depicting significant damage, burning buildings, and aerial strikes on military targets, including a damaged Humvee. This confirms continued Russian advances in the Kharkiv direction.
Sumy Oblast - Elevated Threat & Russian Ground Assaults: "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports at least four Russian assault attempts on the outskirts of Myropillia, less than 1 km from the border, indicating direct ground force engagements. This directly supports the previous assessment of a critically elevated operational risk to Sumy Oblast, beyond just precision strikes. "Два майора" posts images under "Soldier's Daily Life," potentially from the Sumy direction, though the content is restricted from analysis.

Aerial & Naval Activity

New Russian "Dan-M" Strike UAV: The reported deployment of the new "Dan-M" jet UAV by Russia is a critical development. Its jet propulsion suggests higher speed and potentially longer range than propeller-driven drones, complicating Ukrainian air defense. This requires urgent assessment and development of countermeasures.
Continued Russian Drone Activity: Russian sources continue to post videos of successful FPV drone and artillery strikes against Ukrainian personnel and equipment, highlighting the persistent and lethal threat posed by Russian UAVs. Colonelcassad's video shows varied drone targets, including communication infrastructure.
Ukrainian Deep Strike on Russian Soil (Stavropol): The reported elimination of Russian Major Gurtsiyev in Stavropol due to an explosion suggests a successful and significant Ukrainian deep strike or special operation. This would represent a further escalation in Ukrainian capabilities to target high-value assets within Russia.
Russian Air Force Claims: TASS claiming the near destruction of a Ukrainian airborne battalion (46th separate airborne brigade) suggests continued Russian efforts to degrade Ukrainian elite units.

Humanitarian & Social Issues

Ukrainian POW Advocacy: The Coordination Headquarters for POWs held a meeting with families of service members from various brigades, demonstrating continued support for POW issues and their families. This is a reiteration of previous reporting.
Ukrainian Mobilization Efforts: The reported increase in men deemed fit for military service after re-evaluation (99% of limited-fit) reflects Ukraine's intensified mobilization efforts to address manpower needs.
Russian Internal Issues: The reported arrest of suspects for purchasing alcohol for teenagers in Baikalsk (Irkutsk Oblast) by TASS is a minor internal security incident, reflecting ongoing social issues. The potential restriction of foreign cloud services highlights Russia's increasing digital control and censorship.

Strategic Projections

The updated intelligence indicates a further intensification of Russian ground operations in Sumy Oblast, with confirmed direct assaults on border settlements, a development beyond previous reports of troop concentrations and precision strikes. This necessitates an immediate re-evaluation of defensive priorities in Sumy, confirming it as a high-risk operational area. Simultaneously, confirmed Russian territorial gains continue in Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts, reinforcing the attritional nature of the conflict and Russia's persistent, albeit incremental, advances.

A critical new technological development is Russia's deployment of the "Dan-M" jet UAV. This system, potentially featuring higher speed and range, poses a new challenge for Ukrainian air defense and requires urgent intelligence gathering and the development of tailored countermeasures.

The reported elimination of Major Gurtsiyev in Stavropol is a significant intelligence victory for Ukraine, demonstrating continued capability to execute deep strikes or special operations against high-value targets within Russian territory. This could serve as a deterrent or signal further escalation of Ukrainian offensive actions behind enemy lines.

On the diplomatic front, Russia continues its "negotiation" offensive, actively pushing for a June 2nd meeting in Istanbul and reiterating its terms. However, Ukraine's refusal to immediately engage or receive Russia's "memorandum" from Washington, as reported by Russian sources, indicates Kyiv's firm stance against negotiations on Russian terms and its strategy of avoiding legitimizing Russian narratives. The upcoming Ramstein meeting on June 4th in Brussels remains a crucial platform for Ukraine to secure continued international military aid and counter Russian diplomatic maneuvers.

Ukraine's intensified mobilization efforts, evidenced by the high percentage of "limited-fit" men now deemed suitable for service, highlight a strategic commitment to strengthening manpower and addressing battlefield attrition. This is a vital internal development for sustaining the defense.

Risk Assessment

Operational Risk (Ukraine): Critically Elevated.
- Direct Ground Assaults in Sumy: The confirmed direct assaults on Myropillia in Sumy Oblast represent a significant escalation of ground risk, suggesting Russia is actively testing and probing Ukrainian defenses for a larger offensive. This validates the earlier assessment of a critically elevated threat to Sumy.
- Russian Territorial Gains: Continued confirmed gains in Kharkiv and Donetsk signal sustained Russian offensive momentum and the effectiveness of their attritional tactics.
- New "Dan-M" UAV Threat: The introduction of a new, potentially faster and longer-range, jet-powered strike UAV ("Dan-M") presents an immediate and significant technological risk, requiring rapid adaptation of air defense strategies and countermeasures.
Humanitarian Risk: Elevated. While no new specific civilian casualty reports were immediately updated, the ongoing Russian advances and the introduction of new strike UAVs maintain a high threat to civilian populations and infrastructure.
Information Warfare & Geopolitical Risk: Elevated.
- Russian "Negotiation" Offensive: Russia's persistent public push for negotiations on its terms, combined with Turkey's active mediation efforts, risks creating a perception of Ukrainian intransigence in the international community, which Ukraine must actively counter.
- Internal Russian Information Control: The potential restriction of foreign cloud services within Russia indicates a deepening of information control, potentially complicating open-source intelligence gathering and independent reporting from Russia.
Technological Risk: High. The deployment of the "Dan-M" UAV by Russia signals an ongoing arms race in drone technology. Ukraine's successful targeting of a high-value Russian officer in Stavropol demonstrates advanced intelligence and strike capabilities, but also suggests Russia will accelerate countermeasures.

Resource Allocation Considerations

Air Defense (Ukraine): Immediate priority must be given to assessing and developing countermeasures for the new "Dan-M" jet UAV. This includes analyzing its flight characteristics, targeting capabilities, and potential vulnerabilities. Continued focus on layered air defense in frontline and border regions, especially Sumy, is paramount.
Ground Forces (Ukraine): Reinforce and bolster defenses in Sumy Oblast, specifically around Myropillia and other border settlements, to counter the intensified Russian ground assaults. Prioritize intelligence gathering on Russian force composition and intent in this direction. Continue to allocate reserves strategically to counter Russian advances in Kharkiv and Donetsk.
Strategic Communications (Ukraine):
- Maintain a clear and consistent narrative regarding negotiations, firmly rejecting Russian terms and publicly articulating Ukraine's conditions for a just and lasting peace.
- Transparently communicate mobilization efforts and successes (e.g., the re-evaluation of "limited-fit" personnel) to both domestic and international audiences, emphasizing the necessity and fairness of these measures.
- Publicize and leverage the success of special operations and deep strikes (like the elimination of Major Gurtsiyev) to boost morale and demonstrate evolving capabilities.
- Actively counter Russian propaganda regarding "negotiations" and any claims of Ukrainian military weakness.
Intelligence Gathering & Analysis: Intensify efforts to gather intelligence on the "Dan-M" UAV system, including its operational range, payload, and guidance systems. Continue to monitor and analyze Russian internal security measures and their impact on information flow and civil liberties.
International Diplomacy: Leverage the upcoming Ramstein meeting on June 4th to secure additional air defense systems and capabilities specifically tailored to counter new Russian UAV threats. Continue to advocate for sustained military aid and political support from international partners. Emphasize the critical and escalating threat from the Sumy direction.

Situation Report