Operational Intelligence Briefing: Ukraine Focus (Updated as of Thu May 29 04:34:50 2025)

Major Updates

Renewed Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Civilian Infrastructure: Contrary to the previous "all-clear" in Zaporizhzhia, new reports indicate a 49-year-old civilian has been injured in a Russian attack on Polohy district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Additionally, Nikopol and surrounding communities in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast were subjected to heavy artillery and UAV attacks, causing significant damage to residential structures. This suggests a continuation and potential intensification of Russian targeting of civilian areas.
Ukrainian Deep Strike on St. Petersburg Plant: A significant incident is reported in St. Petersburg, Russia, where the "Avangard" plant is on fire due to unknown causes. While the cause is unconfirmed by Ukrainian sources, this is a potential continuation of Ukrainian deep strike operations targeting Russian military-industrial facilities, following the pattern of the past 24 hours. "Avangard" is a known producer of naval missiles, including those for submarines.
Ukrainian Reported Enemy Losses: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) reports the elimination of an additional 1050 Russian personnel and 31 artillery systems in the past 24 hours. These figures, if accurate, indicate continued high intensity of combat and significant attrition of Russian forces and equipment.
Russian Claims of Repelled Ukrainian Offensive: TASS, citing Andrei Marochko, claims Ukrainian units attempted to advance and attack near Zahryzovo, Kharkiv Oblast, but were repelled with losses. This indicates continued active engagements in Kharkiv Oblast.
Russian Claims of Drone Interceptions: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have destroyed and intercepted 48 Ukrainian UAVs overnight across Russian regions, with the majority over Belgorod Oblast. Separately, the governor of Bryansk Oblast, AV Bogomaz, reported the destruction of two Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs. While likely exaggerated, these claims confirm ongoing Ukrainian drone activity deep within Russian territory.

Ground Operations and Frontline Dynamics

Zaporizhzhia Oblast - Continued Shelling and Casualties: Despite the previous air raid all-clear, the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration confirms a civilian injury and significant residential damage in the Polohy district due to Russian attacks. This indicates persistent, localized Russian shelling. Russian sources (Воин DV) continue to claim drone strikes on Ukrainian strongholds and equipment in the Polohy direction, suggesting ongoing positional battles.
Kharkiv Oblast - Continued Clashes: Russian sources (TASS) report an unsuccessful Ukrainian attempt to advance near Zahryzovo, implying continued active engagement and attempts at localized offensive operations by both sides in Kharkiv Oblast. OTU "Kharkiv" posted images implying continued training and readiness in the Eastern direction.
Sumy Oblast - Continued KAB Threat to Infrastructure: Colonelcassad posted a video showing a "FAB slightly overflying" and hitting near a road in Hoten, Sumy Oblast, stating the bridge "needs to be finished off." This confirms continued Russian use of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) against infrastructure targets in Sumy Oblast and their intent to disrupt logistics.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - Heavy Artillery and UAV Attacks: Serhii Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk ODA (OVA) reports that Nikopol and surrounding communities (Pokrovska, Marhanetska, Myrivska) continue to face heavy artillery and UAV terror, causing significant damage to residential areas, including impacts on rooms and windows. This is a continuation of the destructive pattern observed in previous reports.
Kryvyi Rih - Situation Controlled: Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of the morning of May 29, 2025. This indicates no immediate direct threat to the city.

Aerial & Naval Activity

Ukrainian Drone Activity in Russia: Russian MoD claims 48 Ukrainian UAVs intercepted/destroyed, mostly over Belgorod Oblast. Bryansk Oblast also reports two UAVs destroyed. This confirms continued Ukrainian long-range drone operations targeting Russian territory.
Potential Ukrainian Deep Strike on St. Petersburg: The fire at the "Avangard" plant in St. Petersburg, reported by STERNENKO, is a significant development. Given the plant's production of naval missiles, if confirmed as a Ukrainian drone strike, it represents a further expansion of Ukrainian targeting of critical Russian military-industrial facilities, potentially impacting naval capabilities.
Russian Aerial Attacks on Ukraine: Confirmed civilian casualties and residential damage in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts due to Russian attacks, likely involving KABs and UAVs. The video from Colonelcassad of a KAB missing a bridge but hitting close by in Sumy Oblast highlights the ongoing threat.
No New Naval Updates: No new information regarding naval activity in the Black or Azov Seas.

Humanitarian & Social Issues

Civilian Casualties in Zaporizhzhia: A 49-year-old man was injured in a Russian attack on Polohy district.
Civilian Infrastructure Damage in Dnipropetrovsk: Nikopol and neighboring communities continue to suffer extensive damage to residential buildings from Russian artillery and UAV attacks.
Russian Internal - Digital Ruble: News from Moscow reports the possibility of using digital rubles on marketplaces, a domestic economic development not directly related to military operations but reflecting Russia's internal policy directions.

Strategic Projections

The most significant developments are the potential Ukrainian deep strike on the Avangard plant in St. Petersburg and the continued Russian targeting of civilian infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.

The St. Petersburg incident, if confirmed as a Ukrainian strike, underscores Ukraine's escalating long-range capabilities and its commitment to degrading Russia's military-industrial complex across a wider geographical area. This would be a continuation of the deep strike campaign identified in the previous daily report.

The renewed civilian casualties and damage in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk, despite the recent "all-clear" in Zaporizhzhia, confirm Russia's intent to sustain pressure on Ukrainian civilian populations and critical infrastructure. This negates the brief reprieve previously observed.

The reported high Russian personnel and artillery losses by the Ukrainian General Staff, if accurate, indicate severe attrition on the Russian side, potentially influencing their operational tempo in the coming days.

Russian claims of repelled Ukrainian advances in Kharkiv and continued drone interceptions over their territory are standard information warfare tactics, but they do indicate persistent contact and active drone warfare on both sides.

Russia's statement about the "grain deal" not being extended beyond July 22 highlights a persistent geopolitical pressure point and is consistent with their use of food security as leverage.

Risk Assessment

Operational Risk (Ukraine):
- Persistent Civilian Targeting: High risk of continued civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in frontline and near-frontline regions, particularly Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Sumy.
- Infrastructure Vulnerability: Bridges and other logistics nodes remain high-value targets for Russian KABs, as evidenced by the Hoten incident.
- Attrition Rates: While Ukrainian reports of Russian losses are positive, the high figures also imply intense combat and corresponding Ukrainian exposure.
Russian Internal Security Risk: Elevated. A confirmed deep strike on a military-industrial target in St. Petersburg would signify a significant breach of Russian internal security and morale impact, especially following the previous day's widespread strikes. The "unknown causes" for the fire could be an attempt to downplay the impact.
Information Warfare Risk: High. Both sides continue to release combat summaries and drone interception figures, which are often exaggerated or framed to serve specific narratives. The St. Petersburg incident will likely be subject to intense narrative competition.
Geopolitical Risk: The Russian MFA statement on the grain deal indicates a hardening stance on food security, potentially impacting global markets and humanitarian efforts.

Resource Allocation Considerations

Air Defense (Ukraine): Reinforce air defense systems in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, focusing on countering KABs and UAVs to protect civilian populations and critical infrastructure. Intelligence on Russian tactical aviation deployment for KAB strikes is crucial.
Strategic Planning (Ukraine): Analyze the potential implications of the St. Petersburg "Avangard" plant incident. If confirmed as a Ukrainian strike, consider the strategic messaging and potential Russian retaliation. Prioritize further degradation of Russian military-industrial facilities.
Logistics & Repair (Ukraine): Assess and preemptively reinforce critical infrastructure, especially bridges in vulnerable areas like Sumy Oblast, given persistent Russian targeting with KABs.
Strategic Communications (Ukraine): Continue to highlight Russian aggression against civilians and infrastructure. Frame potential successful deep strikes on Russian military-industrial targets as legitimate defensive measures against an aggressor's war machine. Transparently report combat losses.
Diplomatic Engagement: Monitor Russia's rhetoric on the grain deal and prepare diplomatic responses to mitigate potential global food security impacts.

Situation Report