Operational Intelligence Briefing: Ukraine Focus (Updated as of Wed May 28 18:34:50 2025)

Major Updates

• Continued Ukrainian Deep Strike on Russian Military-Industrial Complex Confirmed by Ukraine: ASTRA reports that the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has confirmed a strike on a UAV plant in the Moscow region. This corroborates previous reports of successful Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian military-industrial facilities, indicating sustained and effective targeting capabilities.
• Persistent Russian Offensive Pressure Towards Konstantinovka (Donetsk Oblast): Russian sources ("Операция Z") report that the 103rd Regiment is advancing towards Konstantinovka, claiming the destruction of NATO-supplied equipment with landing forces. This indicates ongoing Russian attempts to consolidate and expand territorial gains in the Donetsk direction, specifically threatening Konstantinovka.
• Escalated Russian Information Warfare: Exploiting Ukrainian Mobilization Efforts & Renewed Threat Narratives: Colonelcassad disseminated videos alleging forceful conscription ("busification") of local populations by Ukrainian military personnel in Kamenskoye (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) and Odesa, with one video showing a Polish license plate on a van. TASS continues to propagate the narrative that "Ukrainian Nazis" are threatening the family of Vladimir Medinsky, with Leonid Slutsky commenting that the "Kyiv regime, losing on the front, resorts to terrorist methods." This is a consistent and renewed effort to dehumanize Ukrainians, justify Russian aggression, and sow discord and demoralize the Ukrainian populace.
• Ukrainian POW Exchange and Morale Boost: "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shared a video of recently exchanged Ukrainian POWs expressing surprise and joy upon learning that Kherson and Zaporizhzhia remain under Ukrainian control, indicating that Russian captors had provided them with disinformation. This serves as a significant morale boost for Ukrainian forces and highlights the effectiveness of Russian information control over POWs.
• Ukrainian Counter-Air Defense Success: STERNENKO released a video showing the destruction of a Russian 9K35 Strela-10 (SA-13 Gopher) anti-aircraft missile system by a Ukrainian drone. This demonstrates Ukraine's continued effectiveness in targeting high-value Russian air defense assets.
• Increased Russian Tactical Aviation Activity in Northeastern Direction: Ukrainian Air Force ("Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine") reports increased activity of enemy tactical aviation and launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) on Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. This suggests ongoing Russian aerial reconnaissance or potential for further air strikes in these regions.
• EU Extends Temporary Protection for Ukrainians: РБК-Україна reports that the EU plans to extend temporary protection for Ukrainians until March 2027. This provides long-term security for displaced Ukrainians and underscores continued European support.
• German Espionage Allegations Against Russian Agents: РБК-Україна reports that Germany has accused three agents of spying on a Ukrainian individual. This highlights ongoing Russian intelligence operations targeting Ukrainian interests within allied countries.
• Donald Trump's Ambiguous Stance on Peace Negotiations & Russian Influence: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Donald Trump's statement that he will know "in two weeks" if Putin is "leading us on" regarding peace, and that he would "react a little differently" if so. TASS further reports Lavrov's conversation with Rubio, where Rubio emphasized Trump's aim for a swift end to the Ukrainian conflict. This indicates continued uncertainty and potential shifts in US policy regarding the conflict, and Russia's persistent attempts to influence US political discourse.
• Ukrainian Efforts to Counter Russian Recruitment of Minors: STERNENKO released a video featuring Oleksandr Usyk calling on schoolchildren to report any recruitment attempts by Russian special services to the SBU and National Police, especially for acts of arson, terrorism, or transporting unknown packages. This highlights a new dimension of Russian subversive activity targeting Ukrainian youth.
• Ukrainian FPV Drone Success in Zaporizhzhia: Оперативний ЗСУ shared a video showing a Ukrainian FPV drone successfully striking and eliminating a Russian soldier in the Zaporizhzhia direction, demonstrating continued effectiveness of Ukrainian drone units.
• Allegations of Russian Military Corruption and Business on Frontline: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС released a video (a POW confession/interview) alleging that the war in the Russian army has become a "huge business" for commanders, citing instances of reselling humanitarian aid, cover-ups, and extortion, specifically mentioning the "Somali" assault regiment. This, if true, indicates severe internal corruption affecting Russian combat effectiveness and morale.
• Belarusian "Oreshnik" Missile Placement Rumors: РБК-Україна reports that Belarus has "dreamed" about placing the "Oreshnik" (a Russian intercontinental ballistic missile, Topol-M or Yars-class) on its territory by the end of the year. While unconfirmed, this indicates potential for Russia to project strategic capabilities closer to NATO borders via Belarus.

Ground Operations and Frontline Dynamics

• Donetsk Oblast: Continued Russian Offensive Towards Konstantinovka & Chasiv Yar: "Операция Z" reports the 103rd Regiment advancing towards Konstantinovka, claiming destruction of NATO-supplied equipment. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" also posted a photo message with the caption "Дзержинское направление," indicating ongoing Russian military presence and activity in the Dzerzhinsk direction. Colonelcassad shared a video of Russian forces operating in a war-torn area near Chasiv Yar, describing their service.
• Russian Demining Operations in South Donetsk: The Russian MoD released a video showcasing combat engineer battalions of the Vostok Group of Forces demining recently "liberated" territories in the Donetsk People's Republic. This is likely a propaganda effort to project control and normalcy in occupied areas, while also indicating the ongoing presence of mines.
• Luhansk Oblast: Positional Battles around Borova and Hrekivka: "Сливочный каприз" posted an OSINT map overlay indicating frontline positions and movements in the Borova - Hrekivka area, suggesting ongoing clashes.
• Zaporizhzhia Direction: Continued Russian Pressure and Ukrainian Defensive Successes: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" provided an update on the Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating ongoing Russian activity. "Оперативний ЗСУ" released a video showing a Ukrainian FPV drone successfully striking a Russian soldier, highlighting effective Ukrainian defensive drone operations. The Russian MoD also released videos of their FPV drone pilots targeting Ukrainian reinforced positions and hardware (tank, pickup, BTR, dugout) in the Tsentr Group of Forces' area of responsibility, suggesting intense drone warfare.
• Kursk Oblast (Russia) & Border Engagements: "Операция Z" released a video claiming Russian Airborne forces destroyed NATO-supplied equipment in the Tiotkino area of the Kursk border region, implying cross-border engagements.
• Ukrainian Assaults: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared a video showing "Skała" Regiment assaulting Russian positions, throwing grenades into dugouts, demonstrating aggressive Ukrainian tactical actions.

Aerial & Naval Activity

• Confirmed Ukrainian Deep Strike on Russian UAV Plant: ASTRA confirmed the Ukrainian General Staff's report of a strike on a UAV plant in the Moscow region. This is a significant blow to Russia's drone production capabilities.
• Ukrainian Destruction of Russian Air Defense System: STERNENKO's video of a destroyed Russian 9K35 Strela-10 anti-aircraft missile system highlights effective Ukrainian drone targeting of critical enemy assets.
• Increased Russian Tactical Aviation Activity (Northeast) & KAB Launches: The Ukrainian Air Force's warning about increased enemy tactical aviation activity and KAB launches in the northeastern direction (Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts) signals a potential for renewed or intensified Russian air operations and targeting of civilian and military infrastructure in those areas. Kharkiv Oblast specifically received a missile danger warning.
• Russian Drone Downing Claims: WarGonzo released a video claiming "Nomads" shot down a Ukrainian drone, indicating ongoing counter-UAV efforts by Russia.
• Belarusian "Oreshnik" ICBM Speculation: The report from РБК-Україна regarding Belarusian aspirations to host Russian "Oreshnik" ICBMs (likely Topol-M or Yars) suggests a potential for strategic weapon deployment closer to NATO borders, which would be a significant escalation.

Humanitarian & Social Issues

• Allegations of Forceful Ukrainian Mobilization: Colonelcassad's videos depicting "busification" of individuals in military fatigues and a police officer, including one resisting and yelling, and another van with Polish license plates, are used by Russian propaganda to portray Ukrainian mobilization as forced and illegal. These claims are designed to undermine support for the Ukrainian government and demoralize the population.
• Ukrainian POWs Debunk Russian Disinformation: The video of Ukrainian POWs reacting with joy to news of Ukrainian control over Kherson and Zaporizhzhia upon their release is a powerful counter-narrative to Russian propaganda, revealing the extent of Russian disinformation campaigns targeting POWs.
• UN Commission Report on Russian Drone Attacks in Kherson: "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports that a UN Commission's report identifies Russian drone hunting of civilians in Kherson Oblast as "terror, crimes against humanity, and war crimes." This provides international backing to Ukraine's claims of Russian atrocities and highlights the ongoing humanitarian crisis in the region.
• Ukrainian Counter-Recruitment Efforts Targeting Youth: Oleksandr Usyk's public appeal to schoolchildren to report Russian special services' recruitment attempts highlights a concerning new dimension of Russian subversion, targeting vulnerable populations.
• New Wave of Phishing Emails in Ukraine: РБК-Україна reports a new wave of dangerous phishing emails impersonating the State Tax Service of Ukraine, indicating ongoing cyber threats targeting Ukrainian citizens and organizations.
• Russian Internal Suppression: ASTRA reports lawyer Maria Bontsler, who defended political prisoner Igor Barashnikov, is suspected of "treason," demonstrating ongoing Russian suppression of dissent and human rights.

Strategic Projections

The immediate developments reinforce several existing trends. The confirmation of a Ukrainian deep strike on a Russian UAV production facility continues to demonstrate consistent and impactful long-range capabilities, degrading Russia's war-making capacity. The direct countering of Russian disinformation through the testimony of liberated Ukrainian POWs remains a potent tool for morale and psychological operations.

Russia's continued information warfare efforts are escalating, with the renewed focus on "Ukrainian Nazis" threatening Russian officials (Medinsky) and the intense propaganda around alleged "forced mobilization" ("busification"). These are deliberate attempts to dehumanize Ukrainians, justify aggression, sow discord, and demoralize the Ukrainian populace. The new revelation of Oleksandr Usyk's warning about Russian recruitment of schoolchildren suggests a concerning shift in Russian subversive tactics, actively targeting Ukrainian youth for potentially illegal activities.

The reported increase in Russian tactical aviation activity and KAB launches in the northeast (Sumy, Kharkiv) suggests an intensification of aerial attacks or a precursor to renewed ground operations in those sectors. This aligns with Russia's declared objective of creating a "buffer zone."

The reported conversation between Lavrov and Rubio, emphasizing Trump's desire for a swift end to the conflict, underscores Russia's persistent efforts to influence Western political figures and exploit potential shifts in US policy. The speculation about "Oreshnik" ICBMs in Belarus, while unconfirmed, is a significant rhetorical and potentially strategic escalation, further raising tensions with NATO.

Allegations of widespread corruption within the Russian military (as per the "Somali" regiment POW account) highlight internal vulnerabilities that could affect combat effectiveness and morale, presenting a potential area for Ukrainian exploitation through information operations.

Risk Assessment

• Information Warfare Risk: Extreme. The escalation of Russian propaganda (forced mobilization, "Nazi" threats, targeting youth) and the active countering by Ukraine (POW testimonies, Usyk's appeal) signify an intensifying and crucial information battleground. The potential for these narratives to undermine internal cohesion and public trust within Ukraine is high.
• Operational Risk (Ukraine): Moderate to High. While Ukrainian deep strikes continue to succeed, the confirmed increase in Russian tactical aviation and KAB launches in Sumy and Kharkiv poses a significant threat of intensified aerial attacks and further infrastructure damage. Russian territorial gains in Sumy and Donetsk remain a concern, potentially leading to further pressure on key urban centers.
• Operational Risk (Russia): Moderate. The confirmed destruction of a Russian Strela-10 air defense system and the UAV plant strike indicate continued vulnerabilities in Russian air defense and drone production capabilities. The allegations of internal corruption, if widespread, could undermine operational effectiveness.
• Geopolitical Risk: Moderate. Donald Trump's comments and Russia's active engagement with US political figures introduce an element of uncertainty regarding future US support. The Belarusian "Oreshnik" speculation, if realized, would be a major escalation of strategic posture.
• Humanitarian Risk: High. Continued Russian KAB and missile attacks on civilian areas in Kharkiv and Sumy, combined with existing reports of drone attacks on civilians in Kherson, will deepen the humanitarian crisis, increasing casualties and displacement. The targeting of Ukrainian youth for recruitment by Russian special services is a severe new humanitarian and security concern.

Resource Allocation Considerations

• Strategic Communications (Ukraine):
  • Proactive Debunking: Immediately and widely disseminate the video of the exchanged Ukrainian POWs to counter Russian disinformation regarding the control of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, emphasizing the psychological manipulation by Russia.
  • Countering Mobilization Propaganda: Vigorously counter Russian narratives about forced mobilization, highlighting legal frameworks and the voluntary nature of the vast majority of recruitment, while addressing any isolated incidents of misconduct transparently.
  • Protecting Youth: Amplify Oleksandr Usyk's message and launch broader public awareness campaigns to educate schoolchildren and parents about Russian recruitment tactics and channels for reporting such attempts to the SBU and National Police.
  • Exposing Russian Internal Corruption: Leverage and disseminate information regarding alleged Russian military corruption (e.g., "Somali" regiment account) to undermine Russian morale and expose systemic issues.
  • Amplifying Atrocities: Continue to leverage the UN Commission's report on Russian drone attacks in Kherson to further highlight Russian war crimes and crimes against humanity on international platforms.
• Military Intelligence & Operations (Ukraine):
  • Northeastern Air Monitoring & Defense: Intensify monitoring of Russian tactical aviation and KAB launch points in the northeastern direction (Sumy, Kharkiv) to anticipate and counter potential air strikes. Prioritize air defense assets to protect these regions.
  • Sustained Deep Strikes: Continue to prioritize and execute precise deep strikes against Russian military-industrial targets, particularly those related to drone and missile production, to degrade their war-making capacity.
  • Drone Warfare Adaptation: Continue to invest in and adapt Ukrainian FPV drone capabilities for offensive and defensive operations, leveraging successes seen in Zaporizhzhia and against Russian air defense systems. Develop countermeasures for new Russian drone tactics.
  • Force Protection & Morale: Disseminate the POW exchange video widely to Ukrainian forces as a morale booster. Implement robust psychological support and medical care for frontline personnel.
• Counter-Intelligence & Security (Ukraine): Collaborate closely with international partners, especially Germany, to address Russian espionage activities targeting Ukrainian interests abroad. Enhance efforts to identify and neutralize internal cyber threats, such as the phishing campaign impersonating the State Tax Service.
• Diplomatic Action (Ukraine): Continue to engage with international partners to ensure sustained military and financial support, clarify and solidify commitments (e.g., regarding weapon ranges), and counter Russian diplomatic narratives, particularly those aimed at influencing key political figures like Donald Trump and the "Oreshnik" missile speculation in Belarus.
• Legal Action (Ukraine): Pursue documentation and prosecution of alleged Russian war crimes and systemic corruption within the Russian military, leveraging international platforms where possible.