Operational Intelligence Briefing: Ukraine Focus (Updated as of Wed May 28 10:22:55 2025)

Major Updates

Russian Claims of New Negotiations with Ukraine (Contested, Information Warfare - Trend Continuation): Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterated that a new round of negotiations would be announced "in the near future," and TASS confirmed Geneva will not be the venue. Concurrently, Reuters sources indicate Russia's conditions for peace talks include Western commitment to NATO non-expansion (Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova), and partial lifting of sanctions, alongside protection of Russian-speaking populations in Ukraine. Russian sources also omit demands for "demilitarization" and full territorial cession of four regions. Ukraine has confirmed awareness of Putin's demands via Reuters sources and via Ukraine's Operational Armed Forces and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS. This continues Russia's information warfare campaign, attempting to shape international perception of its willingness to negotiate while holding firm on maximalist preconditions, and potentially shifting the narrative around territorial demands. Peskov further clarified that a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy is possible only as an outcome of concrete agreements between Moscow and Kyiv, and that "memorandum projects" between Russia and Ukraine will soon be known, setting the stage for a new round of negotiations. This reiterates Russia's strategy of pushing a narrative of willingness to negotiate while maintaining rigid preconditions. NEW: Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan will visit Kyiv on May 29-30, accepting an invitation from his Ukrainian counterpart (TASS). This indicates potential for Turkish mediation in future peace talks, even as Russia sets preconditions.
Intensified Russian Offensive in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts (Confirmed & Trend Confirmation): Russian MoD claims the liberation of Konstantinovka in Sumy Oblast and Zelenoye Pole in Donetsk Oblast (confirmed by WarGonzo and Воин DV). This indicates a significant and confirmed advance by Russian forces, particularly in Sumy Oblast, further expanding their "buffer zone" and threatening Ukrainian defensive lines. The Washington Post, cited by РБК-Україна, frames this as "Putin's last chance" for a large-scale offensive in Donetsk Oblast. New visual evidence from "Сливочный каприз" (photo and video) and "Рыбарь" (video) confirms active military operations, including drone strikes and damaged vehicles, in Zelenoye Pole, supporting claims of intense combat and Russian territorial gains. NEW: "Воин DV" published a video of a drone dropping a bomb on a soldier in Zelenoye Pole, further supporting active combat. NEW: "Два майора" posted a video showing Russian soldiers using Starlink dishes and drone footage of munition drops on enemy targets in the Konstantinovka direction, suggesting adaptation and continued drone warfare emphasis.
Ukrainian Deep Strikes and Western Support for Long-Range Capabilities (Confirmed & Escalation): Ukrainian GUR demonstrated a helicopter assault in the Russian rear. Critically, Germany is reportedly considering significant financial support for Ukraine's domestic production of long-range cruise missiles with a range of up to 2500 km (Bild, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). This represents a major potential escalation in Ukraine's deep strike capabilities, far exceeding previously discussed systems like Taurus. Ukrainian Border Guard units claim destruction of seven Russian positions and important objects in Kursk Oblast, supported by drone footage (РБК-Україна), confirming continued deep strike operations. Zelenskyy's statement that the West has not restricted the range of weapons (Дневник Десантника) further underscores Ukraine's intent to utilize long-range capabilities. NEW: ASTRA reports a train was damaged by a UAV fall in Moscow Oblast, with photo and video evidence of the damaged train and an impact crater. This provides new evidence of successful deep strikes into Russian territory, targeting civilian infrastructure.
Ukrainian Efforts to Monitor Russian Drone Components (New Development): The Committee of the Verkhovna Rada on National Security, Defense, and Intelligence is investigating Russian Shahed drones' alleged use of Ukrainian SIM cards and mobile infrastructure (STERNENKO). This highlights an emerging vector of counter-intelligence and potential for technical disruption.
Continued Civilian Casualties in Kharkiv (Confirmed & Trend Confirmation): The Office of the Prosecutor General confirmed one fatality and seven injuries, including a child, from a recent Russian night attack on Kharkiv suburbs. ASTRA also published video and photos of the aftermath. This reinforces the persistent threat of Russian strikes on civilian areas.
Russian Defense Industry Fraud Allegation (New Development): The director of the Black Sea Fleet Shipyard, Pavel Flori, has been accused of large-scale fraud related to state defense orders (Colonelcassad). This, if confirmed, points to potential internal corruption and inefficiency within Russia's military-industrial complex.
North Korea-Russia Bridge Construction (Confirmed & Geopolitical Shift): Satellite imagery confirms North Korea is accelerating the construction of a second bridge to Russia, aiming to increase military traffic (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). This indicates strengthening military-logistical cooperation between the two countries.
Ukraine Continues Instructor Training (Confirmed & Internal Military Development): Commander-in-Chief Syrsky announced the imminent launch of an Instructor School, aiming to significantly improve the training and qualifications of instructor staff (Оперативний ЗСУ). This reiterates Ukraine's long-term investment in military professionalism.
Belarus Relocates Joint Exercises with Russia (Confirmed & De-escalatory Signal): "Север.Реалии" reports that Belarus will relocate part of its joint military exercises with Russia from its western borders deeper into the country to "reduce tensions" in the region. This maintains the previous assessment of a de-escalatory measure. Russian MoD released video showing Andrei Belousov discussing bilateral military cooperation with the Belarusian Defense Minister, confirming ongoing high-level military dialogue. NEW: Lukashenko made a statement about Belarus's potato-growing capabilities (Colonelcassad), which is irrelevant to military operations but serves as a domestic propaganda point.
EU Defense Fund Approval (Confirmed & Trend Continuation): The EU Council has approved a €150 billion defense fund (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА), confirming the EU's sustained commitment to bolstering its defense capabilities, which indirectly supports Ukraine.
Zelenskyy's Visit to Berlin (New Development, Diplomatic Initiative): ASTRA and Оперативний ЗСУ confirmed and provided video evidence of President Zelenskyy's arrival in Berlin for meetings with Chancellor Merz, President Steinmeier, and German business representatives. Ahead of this visit, Rheinmetall showcased its shell production for Ukraine (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS), signaling a strong commitment to increasing artillery supply. This visit is crucial for securing further military and financial aid, particularly in the context of long-range missile production. NEW: Official photos and live streams from Zelenskiy / Official, Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація, Оперативний ЗСУ, and РБК-Україна confirm the official meeting ceremony between President Zelenskyy and Friedrich Merz in Berlin, reinforcing the diplomatic significance.
Ukrainian Veterans and Military Chaplains Meeting in Dnipropetrovsk (New Development, Internal Resilience): The Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration (Сергій Лисак) hosted a meeting with veterans and military chaplains, emphasizing their crucial role in supporting Ukraine. This indicates ongoing efforts to bolster veteran support and maintain social cohesion amid the conflict. NEW: The Coordination Headquarters for POWs held a meeting in Dnipro with families of missing and captured servicemen, underscoring ongoing efforts to address the humanitarian impact of the conflict.
Moscow Airport Delays (New Development, Internal Russian Disruptions): TASS reported Vnukovo airport resumed normal operations after night restrictions. However, ASTRA reported mass cancellations and delays at Moscow airports, with photo/video evidence of large crowds, indicating potential internal security issues or disruptions, possibly related to drone threats.
Wildfires in Stanichno-Luhansk District (New Development, Environmental/Humanitarian Impact): Mash on Donbass reported and showed images of powerful natural fires in Stanichno-Luhansk district. While not directly military, large fires can disrupt logistics, create visibility issues, and exacerbate humanitarian conditions.
Propaganda on Russian Border Guard Day (Trend Continuation): "Два майора" and "Дневник Десантника" continued to post promotional content for Russian Border Guard Day, aiming to bolster national pride and support for border security. NEW: "Народная милиция ДНР" released photo and video content for a "Big Summer Collection of Aid for Children of Donbass and in the SVO Zone," a clear propaganda effort to legitimize Russia's presence and actions by framing it as humanitarian aid.
NEW: Russian Tactical Aviation Activity (Trend Continuation): The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeastern direction, indicating continued aerial threat and potential for air strikes (Повітряні Сили ЗС України).
NEW: Russian Artillery System Tests (New Development): TASS confirmed that "claps" reported by residents in Omsk Oblast were due to artillery system tests, suggesting continued Russian military development and training in rear areas.

Ground Operations and Frontline Dynamics

Donetsk Oblast: Intensified Russian Offensive: Russian MoD claims the liberation of Zelenoye Pole in Donetsk Oblast, adding to previous claims of gains in the Pokrovsk/Konstantinovka/Druzhkovskoye direction. This suggests persistent and successful Russian pressure, described by some Ukrainian sources as Putin's "last chance" for a large-scale offensive in this area. Russian forces are focusing on organizing anti-UAV systems on the Krasnoarmeysk direction (Басурин о главном). Russian Vostok Group artillery also targeted a Ukrainian radar near Zelyonoye Pole. New visual intelligence from "Сливочный каприз" (photos and videos) shows military operations around Zelenoye Pole, including drone strikes and damaged equipment, reinforcing the Russian claim of control and confirming active combat in the area. Рыбарь also posted a video claiming the liberation of Zelenoye Pole by "Vostok" Group units, showing drone strikes on buildings and a damaged Humvee, indicating fierce fighting. NEW: "Воин DV" released a video showing a drone dropping a bomb on a soldier in Zelenoye Pole, directly supporting the Russian claim of control and active engagement. NEW: "Народная милиция ДНР" published a video claiming the "liquidation of a Ukrainian Armed Forces pickup truck in the Krasnoarmeysk area" using drone footage, further indicating Russian targeting of Ukrainian vehicles and continued pressure on this direction.
Sumy Oblast: Significant Russian Advance: Russian MoD confirmed the liberation of Konstantinovka in Sumy Oblast, a critical development indicating a further expansion of Russia's border "buffer zone." This requires close monitoring for further penetrations. NEW: "Военкор Котенок" posted a map of the Sumy direction, reinforcing the ongoing Russian focus on this area.
Kharkiv Oblast: Continued Attacks and Civilian Impact: Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office confirmed one death and seven injuries, including a child, in recent night attacks on Kharkiv suburbs. ASTRA provided extensive photo and video evidence of significant fire and damage to an industrial/commercial building. This underscores the persistent threat to civilian infrastructure and population.
Zaporizhzhia Direction: "Военкор Котенок" posted a map of the Zaporizhzhia direction (right flank), indicating continued Russian focus on this area. While no specific new advances were immediately reported, it suggests sustained positional battles.
Russian Border Regions: Governors of Belgorod and Kherson Oblasts (Russian-occupied part) reported civilian casualties due to "Kyivan aggression" (Два майора). Border Guard Day celebrations continue to be a focus for Russian propaganda. Ukrainian Border Guard units claim destruction of seven positions and important objects in Kursk Oblast, supported by drone footage (РБК-Україна). This confirms continued Ukrainian cross-border deep strikes.

Aerial & Naval Activity

Ukrainian Deep Strikes: Helicopter Assault in Rear (New Capability/Tactic): GUR executed a helicopter-borne assault in the Russian rear, demonstrating a potentially new tactical approach for deep penetration (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS).
Ukrainian Deep Strike Capability Enhancement: German consideration of funding 2500 km range Ukrainian cruise missiles represents a significant leap in potential deep strike capability, far beyond current systems. This would enable Ukraine to target critical infrastructure and military assets deep within Russia. Zelenskyy stated the West has not restricted the range of supplied weapons, potentially opening avenues for wider application of deep strikes. NEW: ASTRA reported damage to a train by a UAV in Moscow Oblast, with supporting photo and video evidence. This indicates continued Ukrainian deep strike capabilities into central Russia, targeting transportation infrastructure. The debris of a UAV was also photographed, confirming the nature of the attack.
Russian Aerial Activity: Continues to be characterized by missile and drone attacks, as evidenced by the Kharkiv strike. Russian sources claim downing Ukrainian drones over Russian regions (Военкор Котенок). An air raid alert for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district) was issued, warning of potential aviation weapon use (Повітряні Сили ЗС України), indicating continued Russian aerial threat. NEW: The Ukrainian Air Force reported activity of Russian tactical aviation in the northeastern direction, signaling an ongoing aerial threat, potentially including glide bombs or missiles.
North Korea-Russia Military Traffic: The accelerated construction of a second bridge by North Korea to Russia implies a planned increase in military logistical traffic, potentially including arms transfers.

Humanitarian & Social Issues

Civilian Casualties (Ukraine): Confirmed civilian fatalities and injuries, including a child, in Kharkiv Oblast from Russian strikes. This highlights the ongoing human cost of the conflict.
Russian Internal Issues: Announcement of three days of mourning in Baikalsk, Russia, after a "mass murder of teenagers" (ASTRA). This is an internal security issue not directly related to military operations but indicates a domestic crisis. Allegations of a Black Sea Fleet Shipyard director's fraud related to state defense orders (Colonelcassad) could impact Russia's military-industrial output. A new criminal case was opened in Baikalsk regarding the acquisition of alcohol for teenagers, resulting in five deaths and four injuries (TASS), confirming the severity of this domestic issue. Reports of a Moscow airport disruption and wildfires in Luhansk indicate additional internal challenges.
Psychological Impact on Ukrainian Soldiers: A disturbing video from Colonelcassad shows a Ukrainian soldier discussing constant drone and artillery attacks, stating it is "impossible," and implying self-inflicted casualties among comrades due to the psychological toll. This highlights severe morale and mental health challenges for Ukrainian forces on the front.
Ukrainian Veteran Support: Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration held a meeting with veterans and military chaplains, indicating ongoing efforts to support veterans and maintain morale. Ukraine's Ministry of Veterans Affairs also promoted a sports camp and sitting volleyball competition for veterans, highlighting rehabilitation and community building. NEW: The Coordination Headquarters for POWs held a meeting in Dnipro with families of missing and captured servicemen, emphasizing the ongoing efforts to address the humanitarian impact of the conflict and provide support to families.
NEW: Ukrainian Counter-Recruitment Campaign: Ukrainian boxer Oleksandr Usyk released a video message urging schoolchildren approached by Russian special services for recruitment to contact the SBU and National Police (Оперативний ЗСУ). This highlights Russian attempts at internal subversion and Ukraine's efforts to counter them.

Strategic Projections

The strategic landscape is becoming increasingly dynamic with potential for significant shifts. Russia's confirmed territorial gains in Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts indicate continued offensive momentum, aiming to consolidate control and expand buffer zones. The renewed emphasis on "negotiations" by Lavrov and Peskov, coupled with Putin's specific (and reduced) demands for NATO non-expansion, sanctions relief, and protection of Russian-speakers, signals a shift in Russia's public diplomatic posturing, possibly to create an impression of reasonableness while still pursuing maximalist objectives. The upcoming visit of the Turkish Foreign Minister to Kyiv suggests continued international efforts towards a diplomatic solution, but these remain challenged by Russian preconditions.

The most impactful potential development is Germany's consideration of funding Ukraine's development of 2500 km range cruise missiles, now underscored by Zelenskyy's statement regarding no Western restrictions on weapon range. If materialized, this would fundamentally alter Ukraine's ability to conduct deep strikes, creating a new level of strategic deterrence and capability against Russian rear areas and military-industrial targets. This, combined with Ukraine's demonstrated helicopter assaults in the rear, continued cross-border drone strikes (including recent damage to a train in Moscow Oblast), and reported use of Starlink by Russian forces, suggests a growing emphasis on unconventional and deep-strike operations and adaptive communication technologies. Zelenskyy's visit to Berlin, coupled with Rheinmetall's visible production of shells for Ukraine, reinforces the potential for increased military cooperation and enhanced capabilities.

The strengthening of North Korea-Russia military logistics, evidenced by bridge construction, points to a deepening and potentially problematic strategic alliance, supplying Russia with critical military resources. Meanwhile, Ukraine's focus on improving instructor training and veteran support signifies a long-term strategy for internal force quality enhancement and national resilience. The investigation into Ukrainian SIM cards in Russian drones suggests a sophisticated approach to counter-intelligence and technical warfare. The psychological toll on Ukrainian soldiers, as evidenced by one soldier's video, indicates a critical need for attention to mental health and rotation policies. Russia's internal propaganda efforts, such as humanitarian aid collections for Donbas children, aim to shape domestic and international perception.

Risk Assessment

Operational Risk (Ukraine): High. Russian advances in Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts pose an immediate threat. The persistent aerial attacks on civilian infrastructure continue to drain resources and inflict casualties. The psychological toll on frontline soldiers is a critical emerging risk. Ukraine's ability to defend against these new advances and protect its rear areas is paramount.
Operational Risk (Russia): Moderate. Ukrainian deep strike capabilities are poised for a significant escalation with German support and continued cross-border operations (e.g., Moscow Oblast train damage). Internal corruption within the defense industry (e.g., Black Sea Fleet Shipyard fraud), internal disruptions (e.g., airport delays, wildfires), and the need for artillery system tests in the Russian rear could degrade Russian military effectiveness and public morale.
Information Warfare Risk: High. Russia's refined "negotiation" rhetoric aims to divide Western allies and undermine Ukrainian resolve. Ukraine must effectively counter this narrative by highlighting the continued aggression and maximalist nature of Russia's underlying demands. Russia continues to push narratives bolstering its national identity and military image, including through humanitarian aid campaigns. Ukrainian counter-recruitment campaigns (Usyk's message) highlight Russian subversion efforts.
Geopolitical Risk: High. Increased North Korea-Russia military cooperation could bolster Russia's war effort. The potential for Ukraine to acquire 2500 km range missiles carries an inherent risk of Russian escalation, though it also offers significant deterrence. The continued diplomatic engagements with Germany are crucial for mitigating the risk of aid fatigue. Turkish mediation efforts add another layer to diplomatic engagement.
Ethical Compliance: Continued high risk of violations by Russia, particularly with indiscriminate strikes on civilian areas and alleged coercive military practices. The disturbing video depicting the psychological breakdown of a Ukrainian soldier and self-inflicted casualties highlights severe human rights and ethical concerns arising from the intensity of the conflict.

Resource Allocation Considerations

Strategic Communications (Ukraine): Immediately frame and clarify Russia's "peace conditions" to expose their true nature and counter Moscow's information operations. Highlight Russian internal issues (e.g., corruption allegations, domestic disruptions, internal subversion attempts like targeting schoolchildren) where appropriate. Emphasize Ukraine's commitment to self-defense and the necessity of long-range strike capabilities. Address the psychological toll on soldiers, emphasizing support and resilience, and highlight efforts to support POW families.
Air Defense and Counter-UAV (Ukraine): Urgent priority for air defense assets to counter continued missile and drone attacks, especially in Kharkiv and other threatened areas. Intensify efforts to understand and exploit vulnerabilities in Russian drone operations (e.g., SIM card usage investigation). Monitor and analyze Russian use of Starlink for adaptive counter-measures.
Military Development & Integration (Ukraine): Rapidly integrate new instructor training methods. Expedite efforts to secure German funding and technical support for long-range missile production. Sustain and enhance the production and deployment of FPV drones and other asymmetric warfare tools.
Intelligence Gathering & Counter-Intelligence (Ukraine): Monitor North Korea-Russia logistical flows. Analyze the implications of the Black Sea Fleet Shipyard fraud. Continue to aggressively uncover and neutralize Russian intelligence networks and technical infiltration attempts. Assess the impact of Russian domestic disruptions (airport delays, wildfires, artillery tests in rear areas).
Diplomatic Action (Ukraine): Leverage Zelenskyy's diplomatic engagements (e.g., Berlin visit) to secure tangible commitments for long-range weapon development and further financial aid. Maintain pressure on international partners to strengthen sanctions against Russia and its military-industrial complex. Reaffirm the importance of unrestricted use of Western-supplied weapons. Engage with Turkish mediation efforts while maintaining clear preconditions for any peace talks.
Personnel Support and Welfare (Ukraine): Prioritize and expand psychological support and rehabilitation programs for frontline soldiers and veterans. Implement robust rotation and rest policies to mitigate combat fatigue and psychological trauma. Continue efforts to support veterans through social and community programs, including support for families of missing and captured servicemen.

Situation Report