Operational Intelligence Briefing: Ukraine Focus (Updated as of Wed May 28 07:45:29 2025)

Major Updates

Renewed Russian Airstrikes on Sumy Oblast (Confirmed & Trend Confirmation): Ukrainian Air Force reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. This expands the confirmed use of KABs beyond Kharkiv, indicating a broadening and persistent Russian aerial threat to northern Ukrainian regions. Liveuamap Source corroborates Russian aviation conducting airstrikes at Sumy, Petrushivka, Osoyivka, Klymentove of Sumy region, Stepanivka of Donetsk region, Novodarivka, Hulyaypole, Kamyanske, Stepnohirsk of Zaporizhzhia region, and Lvove of Kherson region. This trend is further supported by a Russian MoD video claiming drone strikes in Sumy region destroying Ukrainian armored vehicles and personnel. This indicates an intensification of Russian efforts in Sumy Oblast, likely as part of buffer zone operations.
Massive Russian Drone Interception Claims (Contradictory & Highly Suspect): The Russian Ministry of Defense (via Alex Parker Returns) claims destruction and interception of 296 Ukrainian UAVs over 13 Russian regions between 21:00 MSK 27 May and 07:00 MSK 28 May. This follows previous inflated figures and is partially contradicted by "Север.Реалии" which reports Russia attacking Ukraine with 88 UAVs and several missiles, and "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" confirming successful Ukrainian drone strikes on key military-industrial and logistical targets in central Russia. This highlights a persistent information warfare campaign by Russia to project air defense success and deter further Ukrainian deep strikes.
President Zelenskyy's Diplomatic Engagements (Confirmed & Significant Diplomatic Activity): President Zelenskyy is confirmed to be visiting Germany today ("Оперативний ЗСУ," "STERNENKO") and subsequently held a meeting with journalists ("РБК-Україна," "ASTRA"). At this meeting, Zelenskyy stated, "I speak the truth, even if it is unpleasant, while Putin speaks pleasant things, but lies," emphasizing a clear rhetorical contrast. He also proposed a trilateral meeting with Putin and Trump ("Alex Parker Returns"), signaling a proactive diplomatic stance by Ukraine despite ongoing hostilities.
Russian Claims of New Negotiations with Ukraine (Contested, Information Warfare): Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov (via TASS, ASTRA, Операция Z) stated that a new round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine would be announced "in the near future," reiterating Russia's demands for Ukraine's non-nuclear and neutral status as a prerequisite for any settlement. This claim from Lavrov is largely a continuation of Russia's diplomatic posturing, likely aimed at influencing international perception and internal morale, particularly given Ukraine's ongoing offensive posture and Zelenskyy's recent statements.
Uncovering Russian FSB Agent Network in Kostiantynivka (Confirmed & Significant Counter-Intelligence Success): The Ukrainian Office of the Prosecutor General reports exposing an FSB agent network in Kostiantynivka responsible for guiding Russian strikes on the city. This is a significant counter-intelligence success, degrading Russia's ability to conduct precision targeting and intelligence gathering in a critical frontline city.
Internal Russian Military Misconduct Allegations (Confirmed & Internal Stability Concern): "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" reports a disturbing incident where a Russian tank battalion commander, Lieutenant Colonel Sergei Serditov, allegedly killed a mobilized soldier and father of five in Zaporizhzhia Oblast after an alcohol-related incident. This adds to previous reports of severe military misconduct and highlights significant internal disciplinary and moral issues within Russian ranks.
Ukrainian Offensive Operations and Counter-Assaults (Confirmed): The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports repelling 32 Russian army assaults in Kursk region ("Liveuamap Source"). This indicates active Ukrainian defensive and potentially offensive operations across the border. "Сили оборони Півдня України" released a video showing the 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBR) effectively countering Russian forces, implying ongoing successful defensive actions.

Ground Operations and Frontline Dynamics

Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Continued Clashes (Confirmed): The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports ongoing clashes near Mali Scherbaky, Scherbaky, Stepove, and towards Novoandriyivka and Novodanylivka ("Liveuamap Source"). This indicates sustained Russian pressure in the southern Zaporizhzhia sector.
Novopavlivka Direction (Donetsk Oblast): Continued Pressure (Confirmed): A map from Liveuamap Source highlights military activity on the "Novopavlivka Direction," suggesting continued Russian offensive efforts in this sector. "Сливочный каприз" (Russian source) provides a detailed map from May 25, 2025, indicating positional battles near Velyka Novosilka - Zelene Pole, aligning with ongoing engagements in the southern Donetsk front.
Kostiantynivka Area (Donetsk Oblast): Intense Pressure & Morale Concerns (Confirmed): While Ukrainian counter-intelligence had a significant success exposing an FSB network, "Colonelcassad" (Russian source) released a video claiming Ukrainian forces are burying killed "pobratymy" (brothers-in-arms) in a small ditch near Kostiantynivka and complaining about heavy losses and serious pressure from Russian troops. This suggests intense attritional battles and morale challenges for Ukrainian forces in this critical area. Russian FPV drone strikes on the Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk) direction are also reported ("Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition"), underscoring continued Russian offensive pressure.
Sumy Oblast: Intensified Russian Activity (Confirmed): Beyond KAB strikes, the Russian MoD claims successful drone operations by Ussuriysk paratroopers in Sumy region, destroying Western-made armored vehicles, pickups, and wheeled armored personnel carriers. This, coupled with a video from "Два майора" (Russian source) showing a Ukrainian soldier from Sumy Oblast expressing helplessness and exhaustion due to "drones and artillery," indicates increased Russian military activity and pressure on Ukrainian forces in the region. The soldier also mentions fallen comrades and inability to maintain positions, suggesting a dire situation on the ground.
Kursk Oblast (Russia): Active Ukrainian Defense (Confirmed): Ukrainian forces repelled 32 Russian army assaults in Kursk region, as reported by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine ("Liveuamap Source"). This confirms ongoing border engagements and active Ukrainian defensive operations.

Aerial & Naval Activity

Ukrainian Air Defense Success (Contested): While Russia claims to have intercepted nearly 300 drones, "Север.Реалии" reports Russia's attack on Ukraine involved 88 drones, implying a potentially lower total engagement for Ukraine's air defense. Ukraine's internal channels (STERNENKO, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) previously reported neutralizing 71 out of 88 Russian UAVs, indicating a high interception rate for a specific wave. The current claims are difficult to reconcile.
Ukrainian Deep Strikes (Confirmed): "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" (Ukrainian source) reports successful Ukrainian drone strikes on key military-industrial infrastructure and logistical centers in central Russia during a night operation, causing significant damage. This directly contradicts Russian claims of widespread drone interception and confirms Ukraine's continued ability to conduct deep strikes. "Воин DV" (Russian source) also shows drone attacks on Ukrainian rear infrastructure, implying mutual deep strike capabilities.
Russian Aerial Activity (Confirmed): Russia confirms extensive drone activity by its forces, including in Sumy Oblast, targeting Ukrainian military equipment and personnel ("MoD Russia"). This is consistent with previous reports of increased Russian drone and KAB usage.

Humanitarian & Social Issues

Russian Military Misconduct (Confirmed & Significant): The detailed report from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" regarding the alleged murder of a mobilized soldier by his commander in Zaporizhzhia Oblast highlights severe abuses within the Russian military. This kind of reporting is critical for understanding the internal cohesion and ethical challenges facing Russian forces.
Ukrainian Soldier Morale (Concerning): The video from "Два майора" showing a Ukrainian soldier in Sumy Oblast expressing extreme exhaustion, helplessness, and mentioning comrades being shot and fallen, provides a poignant and concerning insight into the psychological toll of the conflict on frontline Ukrainian personnel. This needs to be considered in resource allocation and psychological support.
Russian Civilian Support (Ongoing): "Два майора" also highlights Russian volunteers collecting humanitarian aid for soldiers, indicating continued civilian support for the Russian war effort.

Strategic Projections

The strategic landscape indicates a sustained, high-intensity conflict, characterized by continuous Russian ground pressure, particularly in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts, and escalating aerial warfare. Ukraine's strategic focus remains on defending critical areas, conducting effective counter-intelligence operations (as evidenced by the FSB network exposure), and maintaining its deep strike capabilities.

Russia continues its multi-pronged approach of ground offensives, widespread aerial attacks (including KABs and drones), and a robust information warfare campaign. Lavrov's statements regarding new negotiations are likely an attempt to shape international perception and place blame, while simultaneously defining Russia's maximalist demands. Zelenskyy's proactive diplomatic engagement, including the proposed trilateral meeting, demonstrates Ukraine's intent to control its narrative and seek a resolution on its terms.

The internal issues within the Russian military, particularly reported misconduct and morale problems, present a potential vulnerability, though these are likely localized and do not currently appear to significantly impede overall operational capacity. The high attrition rates confirmed indirectly by Russia's own data (death certificates) remain a critical long-term factor impacting their force generation.

Risk Assessment

Operational Risk (Ukraine): High. Sustained Russian ground pressure in multiple sectors, particularly Donetsk and the intensified activity in Sumy, poses a significant threat. The increased use of KABs and drones across northern/eastern fronts demands robust air defense. The reported morale issues in some frontline Ukrainian units (Sumy) are a concern requiring immediate attention. The successful counter-intelligence in Kostiantynivka is a positive development, but the overall threat from Russian covert operations persists.
Operational Risk (Russia): Moderate. While Russia maintains offensive momentum, its internal issues (military misconduct, potential morale problems in certain units) and high attrition rates are long-term liabilities. Ukrainian deep strikes continue to target Russian military-industrial and logistical capabilities, creating disruption.
Information Warfare Risk: High. The conflicting narratives on drone interceptions and the Russian "negotiation" rhetoric highlight the intensity of the information war. Ukraine must continue to provide transparent and verified information to counter Russian disinformation.
Ethical Compliance: High risk of continued violations by Russia. The allegations of military misconduct (e.g., murder by commander) and ongoing indiscriminate strikes (KABs on civilian areas) underscore Russia's disregard for international humanitarian law.

Resource Allocation Considerations

Strategic Communications (Ukraine): Prioritize transparent reporting on battlefield realities, including challenges, while highlighting successes and Russian atrocities. Counter Russian "negotiation" narratives by emphasizing Russia's maximalist demands and lack of genuine peace intent. Support and amplify Zelenskyy's diplomatic messages.
Intelligence Gathering & Counter-Intelligence (Ukraine): Continue to aggressively identify and dismantle Russian agent networks, especially in critical frontline cities. Monitor and analyze Russian internal military dynamics, including morale and disciplinary issues, for potential vulnerabilities.
Air Defense and Counter-UAV (Ukraine): Expedite acquisition and deployment of air defense systems capable of intercepting KABs and ballistic missiles. Enhance counter-UAV capabilities, both kinetic and electronic warfare, especially in northern regions like Sumy.
Military Development & Integration (Ukraine): Focus on sustaining and enhancing deep strike capabilities. Develop countermeasures against KABs. Prioritize the mental health and well-being of frontline personnel, providing robust psychological and rotation support.
Diplomatic Action (Ukraine): Maintain aggressive diplomatic efforts to secure additional military aid, particularly air defense and long-range strike systems. Continue to document and present evidence of Russian war crimes. Engage international partners to support Ukraine's proposed peace formulas and counter Russian diplomatic maneuvering.
Personnel Management (Ukraine): Address morale and disciplinary issues promptly. Enhance recruitment and training processes, and ensure adequate support for mobilized personnel.

Situation Report